Saturday, January 7, 2012

Weekend Comment Jan 6: Bright start to the new year

Weekend Comment Jan 6: Bright start to the new year

IF THE LOCAL stock market’s performance in the first week of the New Year is anything to go by, strategists who have been advocating a defensive investment approach for fear of whiplash from Europe’s debt crisis have got it all wrong.

The Straits Times Index started the first trading day of 2012 with a bang, up 1.6% at 2,688.36, its highest close in three weeks. It ended above the 2,700 level daily for the rest of the shortened trading week, closing on Friday at 2,715.59, a weekly gain of 2.6%.

The STI’s performance so far may be nothing more than a result of the Capricorn Effect. Still, it could also suggest that investors have somewhat got accustomed to the slew of bad news from the beleaguered euro zone and would rather put some of their money to work than sit on it while waiting for events there to unfold.

Indeed, the Greek prime minister’s warning that the country could run out of cash in March, lacklustre demand for France’s €7.96-billion ($13.2 billion) bond sale, and even Singapore’s 4.9% q-o-q economic contraction in 4Q2011 – all reported this week – hardly kept investors away from the market.

“While there are still a lot of uncertainties out there, it may not be the best strategy to huddle in defensives,” says Terence Wong, research head at DMG & Partners. Based on down periods over the past 15 years, Wong says the stock market typically rebounds when the economy is at its worst.

“The inflection point for the STI in the past three crises coincided with the worst quarter in terms of GDP change year-on-year,” he says. The current quarter, according to DMG’s economics team, is likely to be the worst for the Singapore economy this year. If that’s the case, a rebound in the market could be imminent. “If history is anything to go by, the Singapore market may turn around as soon as the first quarter of 2012,” says Wong.

For small caps, DMG’s top stock picks are those in the technology and construction sectors. Tech stocks covered by DMG have lost about 20% in value since August 2011, hurt partly by the fallout from the floods in Thailand.

“HDD major Western Digital, which was the most severely affected by the floods in Thailand, is recovering much faster than expected. The component suppliers will thus start ramping up their production in the current quarter,” says Wong. “That is the inflection point I have been looking out for, and should result in interest returning to the tech sector.”

DMG’s tech favourites include Hi-P International, Nera Telecommunications, Trek 2000 International and Adampak. As for stocks in the construction industry, it likes BBR Holdings, Kian Ann Engineering, KSH Holdings, Lian Beng Group and OKP Holdings. “Given the strong pipeline of contracts, especially from the government sector, the construction players will not go hungry even if we head into a recession,” Wong says.

In the event of a recession in Singapore, Daiwa believes companies whose fortunes are tied to domestic consumption in Asian economies will still do well. It expects the city-state to slip into recession in 1H2012 as Europe’s debt woes and the US economy’s benign growth take a toll on its exports.

Sectors that Daiwa are upbeat on include palm oil, real estate investment trusts focused on the office, industrial and hospitality markets, and even banking. “Notwithstanding the challenges for loan growth given the economic slowdown and our bearish outlook for the housing market, these risks for the Singapore banks appear priced in with the sector trading at a 1.1x price-to-book ratio.”

Daiwa’s top stock picks include DBS Group Holdings, CapitaCommercial Trust, CDL Hospitality Trusts, Suntec REIT and Golden Agri-Resources.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: http://www.theedgesingapore.com
Publish date: 06/01/12

The Hidden Dragons (KE)

The Hidden Dragons
Unlocking the steep discounts
Are discounts warranted? Conventional wisdom appears to dictate that conglomerates and complex structured businesses should trade at a discount vis-à-vis the more focused companies. We sieve through the listed conglomerates and companies in Singapore that fall under this perception to determine if they have any hidden value that can be unlocked. By that, we mean spin-offs, carve-outs and privatisations that could trigger a re-rating of the companies.

An endangered species. A few decades ago, conglomerates were considered fashionable, but today, this model is fast becoming an endangered species in many developed and efficient markets. The investment community has built up a compelling case against the conglomerate model. Yet, the Singapore stock market has not one, but four large conglomerates – Keppel Corporation, Sembcorp Industries, Fraser and Neave, and the Jardine Group – as well as several miniconglomerates. Also interesting is a breed of companies with complex cross-holding structures.

The case against conglomerates. There are three main arguments against a conglomerate model. First, diversification offers no added advantage to investors. Second, the value of higher-quality businesses tends to get suppressed by weaker businesses. Third, moving away from core competencies spawns inefficiencies and risks loss of focus.

The case for conglomerates. While there is substantial evidence against conglomerates, the model is not without redeeming qualities. Capable management at the helm, good corporate culture and strong corporate governance are some characteristics of a conglomerate that can go a long way to protect and enhance shareholders’ value. Moreover, large conglomerates usually have a central treasury that ensures efficient capital management across the group.

The acid test. For us, the acid test of a good conglomerate is whether shareholders’ value would be enhanced. Keppel Corp has been a successful conglomerate and we see no reason for this to change. However, its stake in M1 could be divested and the money returned to the shareholders. Sembcorp Industries may sell its stake in Gallant Venture or develop a business trust to house its utilities assets, but overall, the structure works fine. Fraser and Neave should consider disposing of its printing business to refocus on its food and beverage business, or to relist its property business. We suggest that it could be a takeover target as well. The Jardine Group has a complex crossholding structure but more interestingly, there seems to be a mispricing in Jardine Cycle & Carriage. A misplaced market perception of Haw Par Corporation may be the reason for its discount but we think that there is every possibility for unwinding. Lastly, we believe that UIC should privatise SingLand to close the valuation gap between the two.

Where are the dragons hiding?
Alive and thriving in Asia. A wave of demergers swept through the developed markets such as the United States from the 1980s, resulting in the breakup of several big conglomerates like the International Telephone & Telegraph Corporation. In Asia, however, conglomerates are still very much alive and thriving, not least because of legacy issues or the family dynasties that are in control. In our opinion, there are some real advantages to the continued existence of such a structure and we seek to determine if the modi operandi that have built these giants to what they are today can deliver a similar success in an increasingly efficient market.

Outperformers in Singapore. The Singapore stock market consists of a few large conglomerates. These include Keppel Corporation, Sembcorp Industries, Fraser and Neave, Jardine Matheson and Jardine Strategic. Looking at their past performances, these companies have generally outperformed the Straits Times Index (STI), except for Haw Par (Figure 1). On a YoY basis, there have been more instances of outperformance than underperformance relative to the STI

Breaking up to create more value… A common practice in valuing a conglomerate is to apply a discount to its sum-of-the-parts valuation. This is so because investors generally do not have a favourable view of this business structure. In our case, we have similarly applied a discount of between 5% and 15% to the conglomerate companies under our coverage. In other instances, companies automatically trade at a discount to their book value, especially for those with exposure to the real estate market. Logically, if the discount serves to penalise the diversified structure, then a breakup should help create a higher value of each component business.

…but not a quick fix for valuation. However, it is important not to misconstrue the breakup of a conglomerate as a quick-fix solution for its valuation gap. Ultimately, it is essential to assess if the independent entity, separated from its parent, can survive on its own and generate value for shareholders. We have examined the business structures of the various conglomerates and identified the possibility of streamlining, spin-offs or divestiture potentials that may create greater value for the shareholders. For some companies, patience is key to unlocking their value. For others, their diversified structure may have been one of the main reasons for their continued existence and success. The ideas put forward in this report may or may not happen but they represent our opinion and assessment of the possible actions these companies can take to enhance shareholder value.







Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Kim Eng Research
Publish date: 06/01/12

歐元跌入無底洞?!

歐元跌入無底洞?!


【文/艾克斯】美元指數〈註1〉是拿來觀察「全球資金流向」的一個重要指標,當美元指數上漲的時候,代表全球的資金傾向規避風險,因此股票市場和原物料市場,通常會隨之進行一波下殺;反之,若是美元指數下跌,代表股市和原物料大多還有一段上漲行情。
2012年1月5日歐元走勢大跌,兌美元由1.29跌落至1.27,跌破了2011年1月的低點,暗示歐債問題依然無法解決。 法國2012年標售79.6億歐元的公債來募資金,其中具指標性的十年期公債共佔40.2億歐元,平均殖利率達到3.29%,高於2011年12月1日的3.18%,而且認購比率(bid-to-cover ratio)也大幅下降,這代表融資的成本不斷升高。
於同一天發行公債的匈牙利,其融資成本更逼近10%,再加上西班牙官方所估計的銀行業壞帳,嚴重性超乎民間原本的預測。至於每下愈況的義大利,十年債殖利率再次衝破7%警戒線。種種警訊使得投資人對市場狀況戒慎恐懼,歐元無力收復1.3美元關卡,兌日圓更貶到十一年來的低點。
2011年12月,歐元區製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)提升至46.9,比起同年11月的46.4,算是略為改善,但仍低於50這條標準線,代表製造業整體狀況仍持續衰退。
其中,歐元區最大經濟體德國,2011年12月PMI指數為48.4,雖然亦有略微回升,不過依舊低於50;德國尚且如此,更不用說其他經濟體質較差的歐洲國家了,例如歐豬五國(葡萄牙、愛爾蘭、希臘、義大利、西班牙)等等。 從籌碼面來觀察,芝加哥商業交易所(CME)歐元期貨投機交易人的「淨空頭部位」,在上個禮拜創下新高,達到了127,879口。
然而,另一邊美元指數期貨的「淨多頭部位」,卻從前一週的176.3億美元,增加到203.5億美元,創下自2010年6月以來的新高。
歐元危機仍未結束!


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Yahoo!奇摩理財
 Publish date:06/01/12

2012美国股市是涨还是跌?

2012美国股市是涨还是跌?
作者:BWCHINESE中文网专栏作家 吴东华 2012-01-06 星期五

BWCHINESE中文网专栏作家吴东华:2012年并非美股带领全球股市走出低谷,而是以美股下跌推动全球股市走出低谷。
全球12大机构一致预测2012年美国股市看涨,有望带领全球股市走出低谷,其实,美国股市在2012年并非上涨,而是以跌为主。

第一,美国对美国居民海外资产征税新规,初步计算,将来会大约减少移民1.5万亿美元流出美国,有可能导致300万人移民流出美国。另外,美国在海外的资产有十几万亿美元,这些资产面临征税,这不仅导致美国母公司利润下降,而且导致母公司降工资、减员工,对美国消费带来负面作用。这些跨国公司的股票在业绩下降的情况下会导致股价下行,会拖累美股。

第二,美元这一轮升值周期即将到期,从今年3月份到年底进入贬值周期,资金必将外流,去年美元大涨,美股以箱体横走为特征,今年美元大贬,美股只会看跌。

第三,美国楼价仍然创新低,越来越多的家庭回归大家庭,既减少护工保姆,又节省住房,这样导致就业进一步下降,住房进一步抛售市场。对美国经济只能起着更坏的作用,美股必定以下跌来确认这一现状。

第四,去年12月美国消费高涨是假象,一件纯羊绒大衣在美国仅售94美元,满25美元还减10美元,大衣减去30美元,变成实付64美元,约400元人民币。而上海街头普通裁缝店手工定制也要680元人民币。很明显,这是美国消费再大甩卖的消费新高潮,反映了走投无路的局面,这些人大量购买有史以来的超低价折扣价,后续消费不妙。我看到的是悲观是绝望,而非复苏。我预计一季度美国经济数据很难看,股市必定大跌。

第五,欧洲由于修改欧元区投票协议,全票通过改为多数通过,变成2012年阻力顿失。另外,欧洲利空基本出尽,而欧元当前也在1.29附近的低位,欧元基本上进入底部,美元指数现在进入高位,同样出坏消息,欧元基本上是跌无可跌,但是美元一遇大的坏消息,有可能立即转轨,由升值周期变成贬值周期。所以,美元易跌难涨,美元一旦不跌,美股将被拖累。

第六,全球系统性银行和巴塞尔协议Ⅲ均提高资本充足率。使得美国银行业压力重重。而对冲基金超过1.5亿美元或超过15个客户以上,要到美国证交会SEC备案并接受突击检查。

很明显,全球主动性炒作难度加大,坐轿子越来越多,变成顺全球资金流向大势套利成为获利的关键,而资金流向多被汇率牵着鼻子走。所以,2012年美股大跌即将来临。

第七,就算美联储推出QE3买美国银行业的楼市抵押债券,不会增加市场流动性,这些钱不是银行自救,补充资本充足率,就是存美联储,欧洲债务减记50%,导致全球银行业为了自保不肯信贷。所以,2012年全球流动性从央行流出复归央行,市场借贷依然偏紧,美股资金净流出。

2012年并非美股带领全球股市走出低谷,而是以美股下跌推动全球股市走出低谷。

责任编辑:Leo Wei


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: BWCHINESE中文网
Publish date: 06/01/12

2012年投資請繫上安全帶

2012年投資請繫上安全帶

( 2011/12/30 08:39 黃珮婷 )



展望來年2012前景,應該看的是周期,也就是每幾年一起一落的現象。影響周期最為經典的元素,就是貨幣。貨幣是只有短期效果但是沒有長期效果的政策,各國央行透過向金融體系注資(QE),而資金泛濫令所有資產價格都上升起來。所以持有資產的發達了,荷包脹大了,經濟表面繁榮了,持有現金造成財富的貶值。但是價格可以在短時間內偏離,但長時間還是會回到實際經濟現況。所以債務危機的結果是貨幣化,但是貨幣危機的結局卻是大貶值,能夠對抗貶值的真正貨幣,相信會是最終的大贏家。所以投資人建議留意在2001年開始牛市的黃金、白銀可以在震盪拉回時布局。
2011年底中國央行突然宣佈下調存款準備金率0.5個百分點,存款準備金率三年來的首次下調並正式實施,市場將迎來近4000億的資金釋放。但對於目前較為疲弱的股票和債券市場,普遍投資者仍存有相當不同的看法和分歧。
債券市場
面對中國近三年來首次下調存款準備金率,將會使市場資金流通量大幅增加,對於推動債券市場整體投資環境有所助益,日本也將於2012年可以購買中國所發行之國債。雖然每年年底為歷年財政存款季節性投放較大的月份,但由於投放時間不確定性,加上公開市場到期資金量很小,以及近期大型股密集發行凍結資金數千億等多方因素影響下,造成了對資金面摩擦性緊張的預期。
而此次中國央行存款準備金率下調並釋放資金近4000億元,資金面將緩和。流動性改善使債市上漲的趨勢有較大的改善,將成為推動債市向好的直接因素,有利於債市中短期內的走強。
股票市場
中國的股票市場調整已有兩年,估值也處於接近歷史低位,但短期仍需適度謹慎,一方面是歐債危機仍未見底,另一方面是中國正處於增長和通脹同時回落的衰退環境中,短期內股市還難以出現趨勢性的上漲,但與上半年的呆滯期相比現在應待股市熊市末期調整結束,接下來股市春天應該才會接近。
繫上安全帶
2012年的全球經濟前景已經很清楚,但情況並不樂觀,可以肯定歐羅區會衰退。美國現在因歐債問題而面對龐大的風險以及政治陷入僵局。英國正邁向雙底衰退,因緊縮財政措施和歐債危機的拖累損害了增長。
在日本,災後重建帶動的復蘇將逐漸消失,中國增長架構的缺陷愈來愈是明顯。房地產價格下跌開始帶來連鎖反應,將對地產發展商、投資及政府收入構成負面影響。貨幣戰爭升級變貿易戰爭,面對這個問題的不只是中國。
由於全球增長在2012年將更加疲弱,貨幣戰爭升級成貿易戰爭。問題根源為資不抵債,貨幣貶值是一個零和遊戲,因為不是所有國家可以同時將貨幣貶值同時改善淨出口。就算沒有去槓桿化的問題,重新強勁經濟增長是非常高難度的事,但這正是現在脆弱加上不平衡的全球經濟要在未來2012年面對的境況。所以繫上安全帶,這將是大幅上下起落的投資年。
Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Yahoo!奇摩理財

 Publish date:30/12/11

Reality check sets in for Singapore market

Business Times - 07 Jan 2012

STOCKS
Reality check sets in for Singapore market

By VEN SREENIVASAN
SENIOR CORRESPONDENT

AFTER flirting on the sunny side for the first few days of the new year, Singapore's stock market found itself haunted by gloomy realities once again yesterday.

The local bourse was in negative territory for a large part of the day but the Straits Times Index (STI), helped by a few stocks, managed to close marginally up at 2,715.59 points.

Brokers said worries about EU debt crisis had returned to weigh down on the psyche of market players, suggesting more volatility for stocks in the week ahead.

This was despite signs that the US economy is holding up relatively well. Boosted by improving jobs data and better-than-expected non-manufacturing supplier index in December, the broadbased S&P 500 index rose for the third day on Thursday.

Supporting the Singapore benchmark index yesterday were Keppel Corp, which rose 16 cents to $9.60; Genting Singapore, which gained 3.5 cents to $1.565; and DBS, which edged six cents up to $11.86.

Among the penny stocks, rubber supplier GMG Global continued to attract attention, as did TT International, following a recent deal aimed at reviving its stalled Big Box project in Jurong.

Analysts and strategists remain divided on the prospects for the Singapore market.

While some investment houses such as RBS and IIFL have downgraded Singapore, citing extraneous circumstances and policy-tightening measures (especially in property), others such as DMG Research see light at the end of the tunnel by mid-year.

'If history is anything to go by, the Singapore market may turn around as soon as the first quarter of 2012,' wrote research head Terence Wong. 'A check into the down periods over the past 15 years reveals that the recovery always coincides with the trough in the economy. Debunking conventional wisdom, we have noticed that both large and small caps move up in tandem, rather than a lag in recovery for the latter.'

Indeed, many weary and wary investors must be hoping he is right, though the commitment - judging by market volumes - does not seem particularly encouraging.

That said, analysts widely acknowledge that valuations are beginning to look compelling, especially amongst blue chips and bellwethers.

'For us, the acid test of a good conglomerate is whether shareholders' value would be enhanced,' noted Kim Eng Research.

'Keppel Corp has been a successful conglomerate and we see no reason for this to change. However, its stake in M1 could be divested and the money returned to the shareholders. Sembcorp Industries may sell its stake in Gallant Venture or develop a business trust to house its utilities assets, but overall, the structure works fine.

'Fraser and Neave should consider disposing of its printing business to refocus on its food and beverage business, or to relist its property business. We suggest that it could be a takeover target as well.

'The Jardine Group has a complex cross-holding structure but more interestingly, there seems to be a mispricing in Jardine Cycle & Carriage. A misplaced market perception of Haw Par Corporation may be the reason for its discount but we think that there is every possibility for unwinding. 'Lastly, we believe that UIC should privatise SingLand to close the valuation gap between the two.'

Interesting. But it will take a bit more convincing to get beaten and bruised investors to bite.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:07/01/12

中国股市20年“三步曲”

中国股市20年“三步曲”
BWCHINESE中文网 作者:董登新 2012-01-05 星期四 大 中 小 默认

作者董登新撰文认为:纵观中国股市20年历程,根据融资对象主体成份变迁,可以划分为以下三个发展阶段。
过去20年,中国股市从100点起步,2007年创下6124点的最高历史记录。最近十年是中国股市发展最快的十年,这十年也是中国资本市场改革与创新成就最大的十年。纵观中国股市20年历程,根据融资对象主体成份变迁,可以划分为以下三个发展阶段。

一、1990——1997:中小型公有制企业阴差阳错成为IPO主体

中国股市建立初期,为了防止“正宗”的公有制经济变色,我们预设了两道关卡:一是率先让街道办集体所有制企业及中小型全民所有制企业试水IPO,这一摸着石头过河的谨慎试验,阴差阳错地让中小型“公有制”企业占尽了股市融资的先机,这也是中国股市早期出现的大批“袖珍股”(总股本一般不超过1亿股)。二是将公有制企业的股权结构分割为国有股、法人股和社会公众股三类,其中,只有社会公众股可以上市自由流通,国有股和法人股则不能上市交易。这就是所谓的“股权分置”的由来。

在这一阶段,中国股市从无知到幼稚,不仅市场总体规模狭小,而且个股总股本尤其是流通股本都很“袖珍”,在这样的市场背景下,所谓牛市,就是一步到位地暴涨;所谓熊市,就是一步到位地暴跌;股指频繁暴涨暴跌。

二、1998——2008:大型国有企业改制上市全面激活国有控股经济

1998年,中国正式将国有企业的改革目标定位为建立现代企业制度。为此,中国股市开始转变服务对象和服务功能,大力支持大型国有企业改制上市。与此同时,中小型公有制企业逐渐淡出人们的视线,并再无它们IPO的身影。从1998——2008年的十年间,大批关系国计民生的大型国有企业(包括国有银行)批量改制上市,全面激活了大型国有企业的活力与生机,从而将国有银行从国有企业的债务危机中解救出来,并同时赢得了自身大发展的机遇。尤其是2005年“股权分置”改革的成功启动,又为国有资产的保值增值及经营管理提供了重要平台和机会。

在这一阶段,中国股市的融资主体让位给国有控股企业,这与当时中国经济的主体成份是大体匹配的,正因如此,这一时期成为中国股市规模扩张最快的时期。当2007年大牛市结束时,当年年底A股总市值高达32.5万亿元。这与之前的上一轮大牛市结束时相比,已不可同日而语。2001年大牛市结束时,当年年底A股总市值仅为4.1万亿元,6年间A股总市值整整增长了7倍。正是中国股市服务对象与服务功能的及时转型,大批量的大型国有企业才得以顺利改制上市,进而全面激活了国有控股经济的活力与生机。

三、2009——现在:民营企业一跃成为中国股市IPO主体

沪深两大交易所真正开始市场细分设计始于2000年前后。此前,深交所与上交所在市场定位与分工上,基本上是“同质同构”的,沪深两个市场几乎没有任何差异性。1999年1月,深交所向中国证监会正式呈送《深圳证券交易所关于进行成长板市场的方案研究的立项报告》,并附送实施方案。2000年2月,成立深交所高新技术板工作小组。2000年9月,中联重科上网发行后,深交所停止在主板市场发行新股。然而,在深交所关闭一级市场长达4年后,创业板并未如愿推出,而是在现行主板下新设了一个“中小板”。中小板的推出,不但为“闭关”4年的深交所打开了一扇全新的大门,而且更为撑起中国经济半壁江山的中小企业找到了制度上的公平,这是创业板孵化过程中的一个意外收获和惊喜。从此,深交所与上交所两大市场走上了差异化建设的道路,尤其是2009年10月30日深交所的创业板正式开市,更加强化了深交所市场的“创新型”、“成长型”、“中小市值”的属性定位,中小板和创业板成为深交所的特色市场载体。与此同时,上交所则致力于“蓝筹型”、“国际型”、“大市值”属性的市场,其特色市场载体将是“大市值板”和“国际板”。

至此,中国股市的场内市场定位与分工基本成形,然而,多层次资本市场建设则是一个更高层面的、更为重要的建设目标。只有构建多层次资本市场,才会形成多元化的投资渠道,才能培养多样化的投资者队伍;只有构建多层次的资本市场,才能分散投资、分散风险,并为机构投资者提供“组合投资”的物质基础,也为居民投资者提供家庭理财的平台;只有构建多层次资本市场,才能为银行融资减压,并逐渐改变中国企业单一的融资结构,使企业财务结构更趋合理;只有构建多层次的资本市场,才能解除因投资渠道单一、市场规模狭小而导致的股市过度投机,以及暴涨暴跌的中国式“快牛慢熊”。

围绕多层次资本市场构建的战略目标,中国资本市场改革与创新的任务还很艰巨。比方,作为场外市场(OTC)的“新三板”,急需改造与扩容;作为场内市场的“国际板”,上交所迟早会推出;拥有套期保值、做空机制的金融衍生产品市场还有待进一步扩展;公司债券真正市场化发行与定价,还有待垃圾债(投机级别公司债)试水;证券投资基金要想成为机构和个人投资的“必需品”,还需要加强自我修养并强身健体,如此等等。此外,主板退市制度改革,分红政策导向,上市公司与证券中介的诚信建设与治人治理,以及严厉打击证券期货金融犯罪(尤其是内幕交易与市场操纵)等,则是市场监管层面的问题。

责任编辑:Leo Wei

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: BWCHINESE中文网
Publish date: 06/01/12

新兴市场在2012年将反弹30%

新兴市场在2012年将反弹30%

来源:CNBC.com 2012年1月6日

在经历低迷的一年后,市场投资风向似乎正转向新兴市场——在2011年,摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)新兴市场指数下跌20%,同时落后于欧洲和美国市场。在花旗集团全球新兴市场股票分析师杰弗里•丹尼斯(Geoffrey Dennis)看来,鉴于利率水平可能继续下行,中国经济可能软着陆,这一资产类别的前景是光明的。

丹尼斯说,导致去年新兴市场资金外流的状况已经缓解,他预计新兴市场的股票将在2012年反弹25-30%。

“去年真正伤害了新兴市场的地方在于,利率周期和通胀周期转换比我们在年初预测的更加尖锐,这是很大的负面印刷。而到了2012年,这一切都已经结束了。在新兴市场,利率不会再上行了,我认为这将为未来一年创造更好的形势,”他在周三对CNBC表示。

在中国,由于惊人的高通胀,当局被迫在2011年的大部分时间收紧货币政策,并导致股市付出惨重代价,但到了2012年,通胀将有所纾缓,花旗集团说。该行预计中国的消费者物价指数将回落到平均4.1%左右——在2011年夏季,该指数最高曾达到6%。

“通货膨胀率的大幅下降应会为宽松的货币政策打开空间,”该银行在一份报告中说。正在超配中国股票的花旗集团预计,今年中国预计将最多八次下调存款准备金率50个基点,第一次下调将在中国农历新年之前出现。

花旗预计中国的经济不会硬着陆,并预测在秋季其GDP增长率将回落到当前季度的7.5-8%,然后再年底前反弹。“全年增长率可能在8.5%的左右,这符合软着陆的定义,”丹尼斯说。

花旗也看好韩国,该国央行行长也预计在2012年将放松货币政策。自从去年6月最后一次升息25个基点以来,韩国银行(BOK)迄今一直保持利率不变。

“韩国银行可能在2012年上半年的某个时候开始下调利率,”丹尼斯说。

“我们现在已经超配韩国、中国的股票……因此我们正在进行价值投资,特别是在韩国和中国,因为那里的市场是非常便宜的,而且我们的确预期它们的经济数据正开始走出低谷。”

预计也将支持股票反弹的因素还在于,去年兑美元大幅下挫的新兴市场货币已稳定下来。

“我们认为今年美元对新兴市场将是一个较为中性的因素,在实践中这意味着,临近去年年底面临一定压力的货币已开始稳定。这对于资金回流新兴市场当然非常重要,”丹尼斯指出。

但尽管如此,新兴市场的前景仍将取决于全球经济环境特别是欧洲的好坏。花旗预计欧洲不会出现最坏的情况。

“我们预计全球经济今年不会崩溃,不会回到2009年的状况。我们预计欧元在2012年将全面崩溃。但这些也都是非常重要的假设,”他说。

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CNBC.com
Publish date: 06/01/12

普华永道接管 亚洲石油中心

普华永道接管 亚洲石油中心
财经新闻 财经 2012-01-07 11:51
(吉隆坡6日讯)睦兴旺(Muhibbah,5703,主板建筑股)今日向马交所报备,亚洲石油中心(APH)融资单位——联昌国际银行(CIMB Bank),已委任普华永道为该计划的接管人兼管理人,执行重组工作。

睦兴旺表示,亚洲石油中心依然是一项可行计划,该公司正与各家金融机构(包括联昌国际银行),及其他相关单位努力寻求友好方式来解决计划的财务问题。亚洲石油中心与联昌国际银行曾在去年8月达成协议,撤走前任接管人兼管理人BDO-Binder。

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 南洋商报
Publish date: 07/01/12

曾淵滄教路: 歐債危機雖露曙光 內地政策惹憂慮

歐債危機雖露曙光 內地政策惹憂慮

歐債危機終於露出曙光,歐盟會議,二十六國同意簽署新協議,交出部分財政權,意大利、西班牙、希臘等國國會相繼通過大規模削減政府開支,社會反應溫和,沒有激烈的反對行動。因為諸國的反對黨人也明白這是他們唯一的道路,這一連串的行動,終於使到市場對上星期拍賣的西班牙國債感到興趣,西班牙政府發行國債,獲超額認購,利率更是急降至「正常」水平,三個月票據利率更是由上一次拍賣時的5.11厘息跌至1.735厘,六個月票據也由上一次拍賣時的5.22厘降至2.435厘,降幅之大,令市場見到「放心」,前一陣子,歐債危機高峰期,西班牙、意大利拍賣國債利率全超出「正常」水平,這一回,西班牙拍賣國債五十六億歐元,下次若再有「歐豬」國家拍賣國債能以不超過三厘率成交,歐債問題就會逐漸平息。

國債利率回復正常

當然,還是有人不放心,他們認為西班牙拍賣國債是十二月二十日,僅僅過一日,即十二月二十一日,歐洲央行提出一項稱為長期再融資操作LTRO的措施,以超低利率,即一厘息大量借出歐元給商業銀行,抵押品僅要求一個月的評級的債券,於是相信不少銀行以1.735厘或2.435厘的水平買下西班牙國債,一轉手就抵押給歐洲央行,借出同額的歐元,賺取息差,這麼做當然不是沒有風險,如果上述的西班牙國債在三個月或六個月內信貸評級遭降級至B級,就不能成為抵押品,不少人認為歐洲央行應該學美國聯邦儲備局那樣直接印鈔票買下歐洲多國國債,這樣才能徹底解決歐債問題。

歐元區及歐盟是一個十七個國家與二十七個國家的組織,要歐洲央行直接印鈔票買歐債談何容易,歐債問題已經困擾歐洲諸國數年,如果這麼容易達到一致的意見,決定印鈔票則相信問題早已解決,不必拖到今日,學美國QE由歐洲央行印鈔票來買歐債的最大問題是該買哪一國的國債?買多少?這是很複雜的政治外交問題,因此,我覺得目前歐洲央行推出的這項LTRO實際上也不錯,是曲線的QE,間接的QE,由歐洲央行提供資金,由商業銀行自己決定如何應用這筆低息資金,可以用來再買歐洲國債套息,可以借給企業,活化經濟,同時賺更多錢。


打壓措施暫不撤銷

因此,我認為歐盟已經為歐債問題向前跨了一大步,現在股市所面對的比較利淡的因素是中國,上個星期上海綜指由星期一跌至星期四,星期五才反彈。而且是先跌後反彈,而期間則不斷地創三十三個月新低點,很明顯的,前陣子中國中央的經濟會議的定調令市場失望,這次經濟會議為明年定調為「穩中求進」,很明顯地沒有過往的「較多增長」的進取。中央打壓樓市的措施看來在二○一二年也不會撤銷。


輯錄自 435期 Book A
27/12/11

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 東周刊
Publish date: 27/12/11

大英Blog物館:打倒「金融霸權」首先改革強積金

打倒「金融霸權」首先改革強積金
「時代雜誌」年度人物,為全球示威者。佔領運動,香港亦有,天寒地凍,仍在獅子銀行地下駐紥,抗爭到底。雖然港人對「地產霸權」咬牙切齒,但「金融霸權」形容空泛,加之全港在行內搵食,人數達廿二萬,一竹篙打一船人,自然難獲共鳴。忽爾殺出一句「打倒資本主義」,只會令人想起北韓,心寒至極。盲目控訴「1%/99%」貧富懸殊,也是不必,世上富人,也有取之有道者,而如蓋茨夫婦、巴菲特,掀捐獻之潮,更為雅事。控訴金融霸權,釐清毒在何處,才能得到支持。

銀行公我贏字你輸

炒股炒樓,贏就風光,輸就眼光光,自負己責,何罪之有?真正問題,是「公我贏,字你輸」的金融機構,只是手段異常高明,搵完笨都唔覺。鬼佬金融股股東,必定感同身受:賺錢年度,八成利潤分花紅,用以獎勵「人才」;蝕錢難關,B仔照嚟,美其名為挽留精英。夥計買遊艇,股東則負責「坐艇」、供股。金融股的股東,仿效佛祖割肉餵鷹,可惜好心難有好報。一眾內銀,「為人民服務」,股東除外,不在話下。

政府一想監管,銀行即化身烏坎村民,血書「冤」字哭訴。銀行永恒的論據,是監管會減低銀行槓桿,無錢借予實體經濟,營運生意,可中小企從來非銀行服務對象。上市公司,借幾十億閒過立秋;中小企,借幾百粒慘過去乞。銀行坐盤炒賣時,資金卻源源不絕。咁缺水,點解唔賭細啲?

金融海嘯之起,就是眾銀行明白「大到不能倒」之理:一係唔賭,一係賭到地球咁大。賭得細,贏咗都無癮;賭得大,才能贏得大,花紅才夠勁,出事時,自有政府獻身相救。要立法禁止銀行唔賭,難過登天:銀行富可敵國,大把錢游說國會,政客難違金主之命,自會設法暗中阻攔。幸有伯南克,雖為書生,卻非百無一用,出手抑制,智取不力敵:推出「扭轉操作」,沽短債買長債,壓平孳息曲線。銀行借短錢,買長債的利差大減,提升炒賣難度,盤房盈利急降,縮減規模,銀行方肯借錢予實業。原理就像連炒牛熊證都無錢搵,散戶才會馬死落地行,返工搵食。

戒買金融股自保

本地金融霸權之最,則首推強積金。之前本欄也講過,推行十年,大部分股票基金,回報竟然跑輸月供盈富(2800)、國指ETF;供款唔准買金、唔准儲人民幣、澳洲紙、唔准直接買債、iBond(4208)、唔准用作買樓首期,連患末期疾病,都不准提取全部資產。敢問市民退休儲備,何故慘變銀行、保險公司糧倉,連所謂「半自由行」,都要研究、研究、再研究?

要抵制金融霸權,瞓街並非上策。首要一着,是戒買金融股,保妥身家,勿再無辜受損。其二,勿再接觸銀行任何衍生產品,自保之餘斷其糧道。其三,各師各法,務求改革強積金。快錢難賺,銀行才有望改邪歸正。


輯錄自 435期 Book A
27/12/11

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 東周刊
Publish date: 27/12/11

2012 Off to a Good Start - Will it Last?

, On Saturday 7 January 2012, 12:12

2012 seems to be off to a good start - so far the S&P is up 20.21 points or 1.61%. A closer look however shows that all of those gains occurred within the first hour of trade on January 3rd. There've been no further gains since.

One good hour doesn't make for a successful year, just as one sunny day (or hour) doesn't make a summer. Can this rally outlast the many bearish head winds? Here are some of the problems stocks will have to overcome:
The January Effect
The S&P has a tendency to record some kind of a top in January. This was the case in 2008, 2009 and 2010. QE2 continued to push stocks higher in 2011. Since 2002, the S&P reached a January top followed by a drop greater than 8% five (out of ten) times.

When the S&P didn't fall in January it reached some kind of a high (in February or March) followed by a decline greater than 6%, four out of five times. Detailed results are shown below.
                               

Mean Reversion
Early new-year declines seem to be a part of the mean reversion process. End of year bullishness seems to be a reliable fixture of the seasonal calendar. Higher prices stroke investors' egos, which results in a higher percentage of bullish investors.

Excessive bullishness almost always leads to lower prices and January commonly puts a damper on the Santa Claus Rally bullishness. This year appears to be no exception.

Take a moment to read some of the 2011 forecasts published in December 2010:
'Experts agree: Get over your fear and get back into stocks' - USA Today
'10 strategists see the S&P finishing next year 1,373' - Barron's
'Long way from dog days: 2011 might see record Dow' - AP

Following a strong year-end performance, not only the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI) and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) have gained steam, investor sentiment is also at the highest level since mid 2011.

The Euro Can't Find Support

Even though U.S. equities are hanging tight, the euro (NYSEArca: FXE - News) just can't find support and fell below the April 2009 and January 2011 low at 1.287. The dollar (NYSEArca: UUP - News) on the other hand keeps going up.

Gold (NYSEArca: GLD - News), and silver (NYSEArca: SLV - News) prices add an interesting twist as they move higher despite a falling euro.

Resistance Ahead
Via the November 30 ETF Profit Strategy update I reasoned that: 'Based on seasonality and today's volume it appears that higher prices are likely. I would like to see a slow grind higher within the 1,226 - 1,xxx (reserved for subscribers) range that takes all of December and early January. This would suggest a virtually untradeable December followed by a great opportunity to go short in January.'

We got higher prices amidst a 'virtually untradeable December.' The rally doesn't have to be over just yet, in fact I'd like to see the Dow Jones and S&P push up to test some previously formidable trend lines.

There really are two separate trend lines and a number of important Fibonacci levels that make up a strong resistance cluster. One trend line is nearly 15 years old and marked the May 2011 top. This trend line ran through 1,377 in April, when the April 3 ETF Profit Strategy update stated that: 'In terms of resistance levels, the 1,369 - 1,382 range is a strong candidate for a reversal of potentially historic proportions.'

The second trend line has kept a lid on every advance since the October 2007 top. The various Fibonacci resistance levels coincide with the retracement levels of most counter trend rallies since the 2007 high. In short, this resistance cluster looks pretty daunting.

High Probability in the Making
There is no such thing as a 100% correct forecast. Investing is a game of probabilities and if you keep the probabilities in your favor consistently, you will prosper.

Based on the January effect, sentiment and overhead resistance, I expect a high probability setup to go short sometime in January.

The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter identifies the target level of this rally (based on various important resistance levels) along with a short, mid and long-term forecast and actionable ETF profit strategies.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: yahoo
Publish date: 07/01/12

2012-0102-57金錢爆(台股民國百年大譏笑)










Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date: 02/01/12

Buy BofA in 2012?



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CNBC
Publish date:06/01/12

中国市场底部到底在哪?

中国市场底部到底在哪?
作者:洪灝2012-01-04

“错误是通往发现的大门。”
——詹姆斯·乔伊斯中国市场的一致预期是什么?到底应该听谁的?
2011年真可谓是多事之秋:“阿拉伯之春”、日本大地震、本·拉登身亡、温州动车组追尾事故、美国主权评级下调、欧洲债券收益率飙升、中国证监会内幕交易调查、中国政府入市干预但上证综指仍然跌破2,200点分水岭。过去的12个月可以用几个词来概括:天灾、人祸、政局动荡和股市大跌。中国经济一枝独秀,但股市却表现最差,这的确令人费解。2011年12月15日沪市跌破2,220点,甚至低于10年前的水平,这引发了投资者的广泛不安,国内四大主流报纸也纷纷以其专栏社评护盘。
身在北京覆盖可投资中国市场策略,我们有幸了解到内地和海外投资者双方的观点。在交流中我们发现国外投资者更为谨慎,而国内投资者相对更为乐观。海外投资者 的怀疑情绪主要源于对地方政府融资平台、银行坏账、房地产泡沫、流动性、经济增长以及通胀压力的担忧;而国内投资者的乐观情绪则主要是基于对未来政策方向 和结构性改革的判断。这有时确实令人感到困惑。

国内外投资者对政策立场改变时机的不同解读可能是导致这两种截然不同观点的原因所在。简单来说,国内投资者往往基于市场传闻买入,而海外投资者则根据实际新闻发布后而采取行动。这并无对错之分,但这种对政策经济解读的差异可能是中国股市一直领先于全球市场波动性约12个月的主要原因(请参考我们于2011年2月28日发布的英文报告“The Spring of Discontent”)。例如,上证指数于2007年底见顶,VIX指数随后于2008年底达到峰值;上证指数在2010年7-11月期间上扬,间隔一年后全球市场波动性从2011年7月底开始大幅上升。如果这种领先性得以持续,近期上证综指的大跌可能预示着2012年下半年全球市场波动性的下行以及市场的反弹行情。

中国市场前景如何?底部究竟在哪里?
2011年 全年,国内市场一直被政策放松的时机所谓困扰。市场跌幅越大、经济数据越差,对政策放松的猜测声越高。但我们认为市场普遍忽略了一点:那就是除非货币政策 大幅超出预期,否则适度放松难以改变市场走向和经济增长放缓的趋势。存款增速下滑和外汇占款减少是贷款增速放缓的主要原因。如果贷存比监管不能放松,单纯 几次下调存款准备金率难以推动M2和贷款增的大幅增长。因此,2012年偶尔出现个位数的M2增速也将不足为奇。不过,届时存款准备金率的下调可能一开始会在市场醒悟之前被解读为货币政策的大幅放松,从而推动市场走出几波短暂的反弹行情。

鉴于当前GDP增速仍在9%、CPI在4%附近而且房价仍相对坚挺,除非国际形势急剧恶化,否则中国政府不太可能立即出台大规模刺激政策。事实上,中国政府在房地产调控上如此坚定的立场已出乎很多人的意料。不过短期来看,鉴于目前散户市场参与度仅处在4%的历史低位,且调查显示散户投资者对股市表现颇有怨言,市场可能在近期出现一波超跌技术性反弹。不过值得注意的是,目前市场估值与前期低点相比仍然高出30%,经济基本面也欠佳。美国经济出现衰退可能成为2012年上半年一大意外因素,但若果真如此或将促使中国政府实施激进的宽松政策。

2011年主要观点的回顾
2011年我们有准确命中市场拐点也有过踏空,但颇感欣慰的是我们更多的时候做出了正确的判断。年初时我们过于看涨,但市场只有小幅上涨。我们于4月11日即转为谨慎,与市场当时一致看多的预期形成鲜明对比,而从这一天开始2011年的熊市也拉开帷幕。8月4日和8日我们连续发表了两篇报告,强烈提示市场即将大跌的风险,建议投资者马上离场。随后我们于10月的第一周成功地判断了一波强烈的反弹行情,并于11月初再次转为守势。我们的模拟组合已取得8.1%的收益,跑赢同期大盘约22%。2012年,经济放缓、货币政策放松和市场波动性上升料将成为市场主旋律。


图:2011年重要市场事件和我们的主要观点总结



新年的钟声刚刚敲响,我们期待着与您一起踏上新一年起伏波动的航程。在此,恭祝您新年快乐!


注释:此报告为可投资的中国策略报告英文版首页的翻译版。请与中金公司销售交易部联系以获取我们在2012年1月3日发表的报告“Some Questions from 2011”。
【福布斯中文网】本文网址:http://www.forbeschina.com/investment/review/201201/0014479_2.shtml


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 福布斯中文网
Publish date: 04/01/12

China Property Sector Key Risk in 2012




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CNBC
Publish date:05/01/12

China –Outlook 2012

China –Outlook 2012
Slower growth on weaker exports
We forecast that China’s economic growth is likely to slow further to 8.6% in 2012 from around 9.2% in 2011. Part of the slowdown reflects reduced potential, driven mainly by a labor shortage, and part of the slowdown is cyclical, as China will be faced with a possible Euro zone recession in 2012. We expect GDP growth in 2013, 2014 and 2015 to gradually slow to 8.5%, 8.0% and 7.0-8.0%, respectively. Inflation concerns will likely be greatly allayed, thanks to a weaker global economy and a high comparison base. We expect CPI and PPI inflation to drop to 3.5% and 2.0% in 2012 from 5.5% and 6.2% in 2011, respectively. With this macro backdrop plus the leadership change in 2012-13, the Chinese
government should continue its “loose fiscal, tight money” policy stance, though falling inflation risks could allow Beijing to be slightly more pro-growth by avoiding over-tightening credit supply. Put differently, it’s unlikely for Beijing to make a Uturn on policy stance, in our view, but we do expect some further fine tuning in a changing macro environment. A conservative tone dominates among top politicians during leadership changes, so structural reforms unfortunately will likely take a back seat.

Risks to our soft-landing view
The one-time hot debate on China’s growth prospects (hard vs. soft landing) has been cooling, but it may be only temporarily. This is because most of the overly bearish views on China are based on deep-rooted misunderstandings and occasionally intentional distortions, which cannot be corrected, in our view. Though there are both external and internal risks to our growth forecasts, the major risk to our soft landing call is a much worsened Euro zone sovereign debt crisis. Rather than providing a scenario analysis, we estimate that a one ppt slowdown in Euro zone GDP growth would lead to a 60bp decline in China GDP growth. For China bears, China’s domestic issues such as local government debt, property tightening, private lending issues and capital flight could lead to a hard landing in growth and even a severe economic recession. To be sure, China has to deal with a variety of domestic problems, but in our opinion, the bears either overstate the risks or underestimate China’s ability to handle them.

Growth drivers in 2012
We consider the three growth drivers on the demand side: fixed asset investment (FAI), consumption (proxy by retail sales), and exports. In 2011, nominal growth of FAI, retail sales and exports could be 24.5%, 16.9% and 20.2%, while real growth is around 17.5%, 11.5% and 11.0%, respectively. In 2012, we expect real FAI and retail sales growth will remain around 17.5% and 11.5%, but real growth of exports could slow to 6.5% (implying 10.0% in nominal terms). The 4.5ppt slowdown in real export growth would have a 60bp impact on China’s GDP growth. That’s why we expect GDP growth to slow to 8.6% in 2012 from 9.2% in 2011. Regarding yoy quarterly GDP growth in 2012, the structural slowdown could be compensated by an improved situation in the Euro zone, so we forecast relatively flat quarterly growth in 2012 (8.7%, 8.6%, 8.6% and 8.5% from 1Q12 to 4Q12).

Inflation: Set to moderate
We expect CPI and PPI inflation to drop to 3.5% and 2.0% in 2012 from 5.5% and 6.2% in 2011, respectively, and both inflation readings will likely rebound to above 4.0% toward year-end 2012. As we enter the downturn of the pork price cycle, CPI inflation could surprise on the downside in 2012 (the mirror of the upside surprise in 1H11).

Implications on improved terms of trade: FAI and profit margin
The weakness of the EU/US economies could put a lid on energy/raw material prices, delivering below-trend PPI inflation in 2012. Though China’s export sector will likely suffer from the weak developed economies, China should have improved terms of trade (mainly cheaper prices of energy/raw materials), and low PPI inflation should allow China more room to ramp up FAI to partially offset the slowdown in export growth, in our view. The other implication is that profit margins in China’s downstream manufacturing sector could improve significantly in 2012 on the back of a sharper slowdown in PPI inflation.

Policy: Fine tuning loose fiscal, tight money
The CPI inflation target and GDP growth target could be set at 4% and 8.0% for 2012, respectively, the same as in 2011. Beijing could set a lower growth target, but it seems that Chinese politicians once again wish to use the glorified 8% to deliver confidence to both their own people and the world. The overall policy stance of “proactive fiscal and prudent monetary policy” will likely be maintained in 2012, but the details may be fine tuned due to the changing macro backdrop. Specifically, fiscal policies could be slightly more active, as the ratio of fiscal deficit to GDP could be raised from 1.9% in 2011 to 2.2% in 2012. Monetary policy is complicated, but we expect that liquidity conditions – measured by interbank rates and discount rates for bankers’ acceptances – could be improved thanks to allayed inflation concerns. New bank loans may be set at around RMB7.6tn (versus RMB7.5tn in 2011), which would deliver 13.9% loan growth in 2012. Although 13.9% is slower than possible 15.8% loan growth in 2011, in real terms (adjusted for GDP deflator) loan growth would accelerate from 10.0% in 2011 to 11.0% in 2012. Last but certainly not least, the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) could be cut by 150bp, while policy rates could be asymmetrically hiked (25bp in the one-year deposit rate and 15bp in the one-year lending rate) in 2012.

Shrinking current account surplus and RRR
The combination of weak external demand and robust domestic demand resulted in a smaller trade surplus in 2011 (US$141bn), and the trend will likely strengthen. In 2012, we expect 10.0% export growth, 16.5% import growth and a meager US$41bn in trade surplus. The current account surplus could be halved from US$305bn in 2010 to US$175bn in 2011, and could fall to just US$40bn in 2012. A much narrower current account would have strong policy implications. Pressure on the yuan would be greatly alleviated, allowing Beijing to truly benchmark the yuan to a basket and to deliver two-way volatility of RMB-USD. We expect three RRR cuts in 2012 due mainly to a shrinking current account surplus and some reversal of the previous hot money inflows.

Interest rates: No cut, one asymmetric hike
Though CPI inflation could dip below 3.0% yoy for some months in 2012, in our view there is only a slight chance the PBoC will cut rates. Now, the one-year deposit rate is 3.50% and the one-year lending rate is 6.56%. CPI inflation could rebound to 4% yoy in 4Q12. In addition, cutting rates could confuse markets about the government’s determination to control home prices. And, higher deposit rates benefit less-privileged depositors. In contrast, we believe Beijing is likely to asymmetrically hike rates once in 2H12 (25bp for one-year deposits and 15bp for one-year lending) to compensate depositors while making the hike more politically acceptable (higher lending rates hurt big SOE borrowers). The popular call of a simultaneous rate hike and RRR cut appears reasonable, but in our view RRR cuts could be more frequent than rate hikes.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: BofA Merrill Lynch Research
Publish date: 01/12/11

United States –Outlook 2012 (BoA)

United States –Outlook 2012
Triple dip
The US economy approaches 2012 with considerable momentum. With the oil and Japan shocks fading, GDP growth has picked up from sub-1% at the start of the year to an estimated 3% growth in the current quarter. Enjoy it while it lasts. In many respects, we expect 2012 to play out like 2011, only in reverse:
�� We expect growth to gradually slow as three shocks hit: fiscal tightening, a recession in Europe and a policy uncertainty shock prior to the election.
�� Inflation will likely slow as commodities level off and firms face increasing resistance from cash constrained consumers.
�� The Fed will continue to respond to signs of weakness. In the spring, we expect it to extend the interest rates on hold promise into 2014 and next summer we expect it to start QE3.
�� The risks are primarily to the downside: if the Euro zone crisis spins out of control it will likely push the US economy into a mild recession.

Growth: duelling debt debacles
Despite the recent pick-up in growth, we expect the economy to slow over the course of 2012 (Chart 7). Three things argue for weaker growth.

Fiscal tightening: Fiscal policy is gradually moving from easing to tightening. Spending from the 2009 stimulus plan is steadily fading. The number of workers receiving extended unemployment benefits has already fallen 40% from the March 2010 peak. The payroll tax cut boosted growth in the first half of 2011 and faded in the second half. The good news is that despite this modest policy tightening the economy accelerated over the course of the year. The bad news is that we expect further tightening in 2012. In our view, Republicans are likely to reject all of President Obama’s jobs bill, arguing that the economy needs regulatory reform and permanent tax cuts, not gimmicks. As a result, on top of the ongoing tightening, we expect the payroll tax cut and extended unemployment benefits (roughly $150bn between the two programs) to expire. Extension of the payroll tax cut could add a few tenths of a percent to our first half forecast, but only if it is not “funded” with immediate cuts in other parts of the budget.

Euro flu: Our European team believes a recession in the first half of next year is almost inevitable. Under our baseline forecast, European GDP falls at about a 2% annual rate in the first half of the year and then recovers at a similar pace in the second half. Historically, the US economy has tended to breeze past Euro-centric crises, but as we argue in the global overview, banking and stock market linkages to Europe have grown in recent years.

Policy uncertainty shock: A differentiated aspect of our growth forecast is that we have explicitly incorporated a shock to growth from fiscal policy uncertainty. We expect the economy to slow sharply in the second half of 2012 as businesses and households anticipate three post-election shocks: an across-the-board income tax increase (1 ½% of GDP), across-the-board cuts in discretionary spending (1% of GDP) and another debt ceiling deadline. Keep in mind that two of these potential time bombs are set to go off during a lame duck session of Congress. Even if each of these time bombs is ultimately defused, it will be very hard to be confident about that outcome in advance.

Inflation: It takes two to tango
One of the surprises of 2011 was the rise in core CPI inflation. At the start of the year, we expected inflation to inch lower, from 0.8% yoy in November 2010 to 0.6% by December 2011. Instead, core inflation has accelerated to just over 2%. Despite the pick-up, we expect core and headline inflation to moderate in 2012. To understand why, it is important to understand why inflation picked up in the first place.

As we noted in the Global Overview, by some accounts, the pick-up in inflation is the natural consequence of super expansionary monetary policy. For example, in May 2009, Allan Meltzer warned that, “the enormous increase in bank reserves — caused by the Fed’s purchases of bonds and mortgages — will surely bring on severe inflation if allowed to remain.” Since then the Fed has expanded its balance sheet even further.

We always disagreed with this view and continue to disagree to this day. The monetary transmission mechanism is broken: despite a tripling of high powered money (reserves and cash), banking lending is barely growing and nominal GDP is up just 3.7% over the last 12 months (Chart 2). Easy policy has also had little impact on inflation expectations: both market and survey expectations of inflation remain low. The reserve expansion story is a red herring.

In our view, three factors caused the acceleration in inflation. Two of these factors are fading, while the other persists:
1. Commodity price pass-through has been stronger than expected. Inflation models using data from the last 25 years show very little impact of commodity prices on the core. However, the pass-through this year seems to have increased, with core goods inflation accelerating from -0.3% at the end of last year to 2.1% in the 12 months through October.

2. In a similar vein, overseas pricing pressures have pushed up consumer import price inflation faster than expected. It took almost a decade of dollar weakness to push import price inflation up to 3.4% in 2008; by contrast, just two years of both a weak dollar and rising foreign wages has boosted import inflation to 3.6%.

3. Despite a surplus of housing, a shortage of rental units has created rent pressure.

Looking ahead, we expect a partial reversal of these pressures. On the one hand, rent inflation will likely continue as foreclosures drive people into the rentals. On the other hand, commodity prices have already started to level off and the growth slowdown should take some of the pressure off of global wages. Stepping back, the deeper reason for lower inflation is that households have a budget constraint. With persistently high unemployment, wage growth continues to slow (Chart 9). Moreover, US workers neither expect, nor are likely to get, cost of living increases. Hence rising inflation puts an ever tighter squeeze on living standards. We expect considerable purchasing power pushback in the years ahead.

Policy: Better go down fighting
As we noted above, fiscal policy is tied up in political knots. In our view, an effective policy would couple modest fiscal stimulus in the near term, with credible deficit reduction in the longer term. Neither seems likely, in our view. In the near term, while there is some chance of an extension of the payroll tax cut, Republicans would prefer to do nothing until after the election. In the longer term, the debt ceiling agreement leaves excessive entitlement spending untouched, keeps all of the revenue side of the budget off-limits, and sharply cuts back discretionary spending. We would not be surprised to see a significant portion of the cuts in discretionary spending rescinded after the election. While fiscal policy is tied in knots, the Fed is likely to remain active in the year ahead. In the face of a disappointing recovery the Fed has had two options: give up trying and admit it is out of ammunition, or keep easing using unconventional methods. As expected, Bernanke has consistently chosen the latter. In 2012, we expect the Fed to repeat the same pattern as the prior two years: if growth slows on a sustained basis, as we expect, the Fed will ease further. So in the spring we expect the Fed to extend its “promise” to hold interest rates near zero into 2014. And after Operation Twist ends in June, we expect the Fed to announce another big asset buying program.

In our view, both the markets and many Fed watchers have made two mistakes in judging Fed policy. First, Bernanke and the majority of the Fed have a different view of what constitutes a recovery in the economy. In the market’s mind, the clock started ticking toward rate hikes the day the economy exited from the recession. In reality, as we saw in the last two business cycles, the Fed does not even think about hiking until there is real healing in the economy (Chart 10). In the current context, that means a steady and sustainable drop in the unemployment rate, and some sign that damaged sectors of the economy, such as housing, are getting back on their feet. This suggests that the Fed is no closer to hiking rates today than it was at the start of the recovery.

The second mistake is that the markets seem to be seduced by the views of the hawks on the FOMC. In the past the hawk commentary was sometimes a good leading indicator of rate hikes. Today, however, the hawks and the doves are in two different worlds. For the hawks, quantitative easing is a dangerous mixture of monetary and fiscal policy and should end as soon as possible. By contrast, Bernanke et al embrace QE as a necessary policy when a central bank runs out of conventional policy ammunition. Our advice to investors: ignore the hawks.

Risks: Stale on arrival?
Year-ahead pieces often have very short shelf lives. This year the risk of our Year Ahead report becoming stale quickly is higher than normal. The crisis in Europe is escalating as this goes to press and as such we are being cautious with our view, assuming three scenarios for European GDP growth: good (Europe grows 1% in 2102), bad (mild recession with -0.6% growth) and ugly (major crisis with -2.5% growth). In our view, only the latter scenario pushes the US itself into a recession. Nonetheless, given the crisis in Europe, fiscal follies in the US and the usual array of other risks, we see a 40% probability that the US slips into recession at some point in 2012.

A common question from clients is whether the US (and Europe) are at risk of a “Japan scenario,” with a long period of essentially zero nominal GDP growth. We think such an outcome is possible, but unlikely. In the post-war period, five countries have gone through major banking and real estate crises. In each case, a very weak recovery followed, with real GDP growth averaging 2 to 3% for several years. Deleveraging recoveries are weak and fragile. The extreme case is Japan: nominal GDP has been flat in Japan for two decades, by contrast in the other four instances nominal GDP was up at least 50% 10 years later (Chart 11). 


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: BofA Merrill Lynch Research
Publish date: 01/12/11

您的2012 年投资组合中 值得考虑的12只潜质股

您的2012 年投资组合中 值得考虑的12只潜质股
文: 编辑团队 (译:麦美莹) 2011年12月30日 展望
在迎来2012年的当儿,相信很多投资者都希望买入合适的股只,打好根基,但问题是应从何着手呢?

经过2011年漫长的郁闷期后,可能大部分投资者变得无所适从。尤其是在2011年后期,负面消息不断涌现,以至决策者模棱两可的态度,许多投资者都感到困惑。在环球金融市场缺乏明显的方向下,股价相继地作出大幅的摇摆。

怪不得很多投资者目前都选择避开市场的颠簸不定,问题是投资者在这段反复无常的时期,应怎样投资呢?把钱存放在银行里可能是最安全的选择吧!可是,新加坡的通胀率甚高,在2011年7月至11月期间越过了5%。因此在目前银行所提供的低息环境中,纵使把钱存放在银行里,也可能不会为您带来正面的回报。

经济方面,新加坡2012年的预期增长将减慢至1%至3%之间(2011年的增长预测为5%)。 虽然2012年的增长预测较低,但我们认为部分行业在巩固的根基、稳健的前景及在艰难时期能够提供防御之下,在新的一年里,可帮助我们抵挡风风雨雨,拥有更大的潜质。

与此同时,我们认为科技及产业领域的上涨空间将会有限,尤其是那些在新加坡及中国从事住宅发展的公司。虽然这些行业的长期前景还是大有可为,但由于各自政府对产业价格的压抑,以至电子业的供应链受到严重的影响,尤其是在泰国,短期而言,相信这些行业会遇到不少困难。因此,我们认为这些股可能会遇到进一步的下滑压力。

与基准指数相比
华侨银行研究认为,与海指相比,海指成份股目前的估值并不苛求,尤其是海指目前以1.2倍股价与账面值比交易,比近4年的平均1.5倍股价与账面值比来得低。

单独以海指来看,它在未来的6至12个月里将会在窄幅内徘徊(华侨银行研究:2,680点至2,820点)。就像许多分析师一样,我们认为‘新的正常现象’,即市场大幅波动,不会在不久的未来减弱或消失。欧洲危机还未有获得解决;美国的复苏崎岖难行;以至新兴市场的经济增长与发展国家脱轨等等问题都会继续对2012年的股市带来重要的影响,因此恐慌依然会持续不散。

然而,由于变幻无常通常会带来良机,目前可能是一个最适合重组你的投资组合的时间,以受惠于相对便宜的估值。事实上,拥有一个多元化的组合可以在波动时期给予我们保护,并同时可以让我们受惠于增长。那么,投资者应如何决定其投资组合应该包含那只股,即如何选择一只其表现起码可以与海指媲美,或更理想的是,其表现优于基准指数的股只呢?




我们以“建立多元组合来减低投资风险”(http://www.sharesinv.com/zh/articles/27394/ )文中的指引为依据,建立了一个多元组合(包括12只股),希望大家在新的一年里,在市场中大获全胜。

闲话不说,就让我们来看看今期为大家预备的6只潜质股!


稳定 – 吉宝企业 (Keppel Corporation)
财务强劲,订单稳健

油气领域的表现最近有点落差一点也不令人感到意外,因为它在今年内经历了许多风风雨雨。这个领域的评论家所作的预测一而再地受到质疑,因为在不明朗的局势中,油价保持高企,并没有像预期般大幅滑落。国际能源机构(IEA)预期石油的长期需求将继续增长,并预测世界石油需求至2012年底每日将达到9,100万桶,这进一步说明为何我们对这个领域情有独钟。再者,持续的需求意味着盈利能见度将保持清晰。因此,能源需求继续往上攀,将无疑会为业内企业带来更高盈利和更清晰的盈利能见度。

吉宝企业(Keppel Corporation)刚好是受惠者之一,它最近从Urca Drilling(Sete Brasil的子公司)获得一份建造半潜式钻台合约,价值8亿零900万美元。这个平台在4Q15交送后,将会是21-超级-深水平台的其中之一,后者将出租给巴西国家石油公司(Petrobas)。

联昌国际研究指出,Petrobas最近宣布取消为租用21艘钻台而进行招标,并将会开始直接与Sete Brasil及 Ocean Rig进行商议。这对吉宝企业是好消息,因为如果与Sete的商议顺利的话,那么它将可以从Sete获得更多的订单。虽然投资者可能担心信贷紧缩的问题,因为这个业务属于资本密集型,但吉宝企业目前的客户主要是钻台承包商,它们的财务比2008年金融危机时期来得强。

我们认为吉宝企业的强劲财务及订单令其十分稳固,并可以抵御经济衰退的到来。


增长 – 毅之安 (Ezion Hldgs)
经常性盈利将陆续而来

长期而言,与石油领域相辅相成的行业,像岸外支援服务,料也会受惠于石油需求持续增长的预测。整体上,亚洲对油气业的服务需求将会增加,而如果对岸外支援服务业的投资减少,这将会影响马来西亚及印尼等国的产量。华侨银行研究指出,水底工程的招标活动保持稳健,而部分船只的供需情况将会视乎市场的需求而定,但相信船只的利用率和日租费用将会提高。

毅之安(Ezion Holdings)最近宣布其第4艘自升自航式修井船(lift boat)已部署在爪哇水域,为印尼客户国家石油与天然气公司(PT Pertamina)维修岸外平台。这不单只是获准在印尼海域操作的第一艘自升自航式修井船,而PT Pertamina还给予毅之安另一份意向书,计划租用公司多一艘自升自航式修井船,年期为5年,合约值约达9,400万美元,并预期在2013年中开始启动。

尽管毅之安在过去一年里并没有带来意外的惊喜或宣布重要的事项,但它的盈利一直与多家研究机构的预测相符或更为出色。更甚的是,华侨银行研究指出,日后将会有更多关于公司的计划而涌现的消息公布,而这意味着公司的业绩将受到正面影响。

假设其自升自航式修井船合约在执行上并没有节外生枝,这将会为公司带来经常性盈利。再加上额外的物流/海事相关项目,公司的盈利将锦上添花。我们同意大部分分析师维持对毅之安的“买入”评级。


稳定 – 康福德高企业 (ComfortDelGro Corporation)
一路顺风

一想到稳健的企业,我们自然而然地便会想到陆路交通运输领域,因为在不稳定的时期,它还是会带来经常性的稳健盈利。康福德高企业(ComfortDelGro Corporation)正好具备了这个防御特性,它在2011年的表现比海指来得佳,因此它顺利成章地成为了我们组合中的一员。

康福德高的3Q11盈利高于市场共识,年比上升了13%至6,910万元,因为收入取得全面增长,后者上升7%至8亿7,700万元。这个意外的惊喜主要是因为其海外业务分布在不同地域,尤其是从澳洲而来的贡献最为特出,因为它在2010年10月收购了Swan德士公司,以至巴士路线不断扩张。海外业务的贡献占公司总收入接近42%。再者,金英证券注意到,公司的谨慎对冲政策令其能源成本比上一个季度回落1%。

就有关最近公司带头调整本地德士公司的车费,康福德高的解释是为帮助其属下的司机应付不断上涨的成本。虽然公司一再强调不会提高德士的租赁收费,但调整车费肯定给予公司更大的空间在未来调高租赁费用。德意志摩根建富(DMG & Partners)指出,假设德士租赁收费在2Q12提高2%,康福德高的FY13盈利将会增加4%。


稳定 – M1
细说电讯公司

电讯股在2011年的表现与海指相比,十分不错。电讯公司的股价平均上升6%,而海指相对下跌了16%。虽然电讯公司不是全面不受市场波动影响,但它们受到稳定盈利及不错的股息获益率支持。信贷评级机构惠誉(Fitch Ratings)认为本地电讯公司将可以产生稳定的自由现金流,由于它们在2011年的资本开支及支付给股东的数额不高,尽管盈利方面受到一些压力。惠誉也预期电讯公司将会把2012年收入的大约11至14%投资于资本开支来提升数据容量及付费电视业务。

以股价升幅而言,第一通(M1)在2011年的表现是本地三家电讯公司中最差的一个。以百分比来看,它的升幅只有约5%。可是,M1在2012年可能会急起直追。我们同意德意志摩根建富的看法,以光纤为主的新一代高速全国宽带网络(NGNBN)启动后,将可能会为像M1的小型营运商带来动力。再加上积极的促销,M1试图从NGNBN这块大饼中,分得更大的一块。华侨银行研究指出,虽然初步的毛利较薄,但在客户增多后,毛利自然得以提升。向NGNBN市场的不断推进将可以改善增长前景及抵消固线及无线语音收入的预期跌幅。无论如何,M1也承诺把2011年基本净利的最少80%派作股息,而大部分分析师预期这个派息趋势将在2012年得以延续,换句话说2012年的股息获益率大约为6%。


增长 – 全民牙医集团(新加坡)(Q&M Dental Group (Singapore))
城市化令中国牙医市场迅速增长

全民牙医集团(新加坡)(Q&M Dental Group (Singapore))的稳健股价让我们感到惊讶。它的股价比其0.27元的招股价上涨超过185%,而自2011年1月3日以来,它跳升了54%;海指在同期内则下跌了16%。这让我们注意到公司向中国扩张的大方针。

中国的口腔护理服务的覆盖面近年来不断扩大。在1995年,每6万人口只得一个牙医;但在2010年每1万3,000人口便有一个牙医。可是,距离每5,000人口有一个牙医的目标还差很远,后者比较接近发达国家的平均水平,相信中国必须加把劲,在全国积极扩大牙医服务及设施。鉴于像北京、上海及广州等大城市的人口飙升,而越来越多人愿意为优质牙医服务消费,这对全民牙医来说可算是一个良机,因它正在计划扩大其在中国所提供的优质牙医护理服务。

事实上,全民牙医为在中国扩展业务,已从国际资本投资(International Finance Corporation)取得总共1,500万美元融资。公司计划在未来5年内开设50家诊所及20个实验室,并在合资企业取得合共8,000至9,000万人民币盈利后,便把其在中国的业务上市。公司另一个重要的举动是它在2011年5月提议在台湾证券交易所发行高达5,000万美元的TDR(台湾存托票据)来为其扩展中国业务融资。由于公司拥有稳健的基本面及具体的发展大计,我们当然期待这只股在未来的日子中能节节上升。


增长 – 超级集团(Super Group)
在消费领域整装待发

超级集团(Super Group)的优势是除了销售其创立的即溶三合一咖啡外,它所覆盖的产品十分广泛,以至其所覆盖的地域十分广阔,主要是以东南亚为中心,并在后者继续占有颇大的市场份额。虽然3合一咖啡依然是集团的核心产品,为其FY10收入提供75%的贡献,但它所生产的其他方便食品和饮品已经打入品牌消费市场。

除了品牌消费部门持续取得增长外,其食材部门的增长潜质也受到我们的注意,销售跳升119%。兴业银行研究机构(RHB Research Institute)指出,超级集团在2007年开始出售其过剩的食材,并在2007年至2010年期间,以150%的CAGR(年复合增长率)增长。最近,公司添加了两条生产非乳制奶粉(non-dairy creamer)的生产线,让年总产量从7万5,000公吨增加至12万5,000公吨。公司的冷冻干燥(freeze-dry)设施也开始启动,让冷冻干燥即溶咖啡粉的年产量达到1,500公吨。

从《股市资讯》新加坡版所汇编的数据得悉,超级集团的EPS(每股盈利)从FY00的0.012元增加至FY10的0.105元,在这10年期的CAGR达到可观的24%。尽管公司为增长作出投资,但股东在这个期间所获得的派息也在增加。值得一提的是,公司在FY10派息0.056元,而在FY00的派息为0.005元,CAGR足足达到27%。

超级集团面对材料价格波动的威胁,并通过远期采购来控制。

在介绍了6家来自稳定及高增长组别的公司后,相信大家已经蠢蠢欲动,很想马上把自己的投资组合重新整理,但请不别着急,好戏还在后头,我们还会为您呈上另外6家公司,这次将包括高潜伏增长类别,我们也将会把每只股在组合中的比重列出。

敬请大家留意即将出版的第426期,我们将会为您报道另外6家熠熠生辉的企业!

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 股市资讯网
Publish date: 30/12/11

曾渊沧博士专栏 30.12.2011

曾渊沧博士专栏
文: 曾渊沧博士 2011年12月30日 曾渊沧博士专栏

现在是欢迎2012年的时候了。提起2012年,首先闪入脑海的是荷里活电影《2012世界末日》,古玛雅人相信2012年是世界末日,圣经也有世界末日的预言,于是过去两千年就不断有各式各样的人出来预言世界末日。当然,这些神棍的预言全部不攻自破,被事实否定。2012年不是世界末日,但肯定是非常具挑战性的一年,得非常小心应付的一年。

近年来,越来越多投资者开始感到,QE3未必会出现,理由是目前美国的经济情况似乎有些起色,没有想像中差,今年中,美元之所以贬值至今年的低谷,原因就是人们对QE3的期望。

今年中,在美国QE2结束,人人在炒作QE3的憧憬时,美元汇价一跌再跌,结果,QE3没有推出,改推一个称为扭曲操作的手法来干预长期国债利率。开始的时候,投资者仍然抱有憧憬,不断地有人说迟些时候就会推出QE3,有说今年第四季,有说明年第一季。

现在,有不少人相信QE3可能会不出现了,欧债风险如此大,新兴市场经济转差,于是全球资金就一反今年中的趋势,反方向地不断涌入美国,购买利率非常低的美国国债,总好过投资于其他货币所带来的潜在亏损。

前一阵子,欧债危机高峰期,投资者也预期欧洲央行最终会印钞票来还债,但是,在德国极力反对下,欧洲央行也不印钞票了。一下子,之前所预期的钞票泛滥的现象没有出现,黄金炒家开始大手沽空,美元转强,而且非常的强。美元转强导致全球撤资,特别是新兴市场,金砖四国之一的印度卢比汇价更出现急泻的现象,与今年高峰期比较,贬值已近两成。人民币更破天荒地出现一连十多天,天天跌停板的事。

美国总统选举是2012年11月举行,2013年2月才正式换届,因此,现任总统奥巴马还有足足10多月的时间准备选战。2011年全球股市表现得最好的就是美国,因为投资者相信,美国现任总统一定会出尽力量推动2012年美国经济的复苏以赢取选战。如何推动经济呢?其中一个最常用的方法就是印钞票。

金融海啸发生后,奥巴马一上台,第一件事就是印钞票,第一次印钞票印了一万七千亿美元,称之为量化宽松一,可以简称为QE1,那是2009年3月的事。2010年11月,再接再厉,再印六千亿美元,称之为QE2。QE2于2011年6月用尽。从此,投资者天天在谈论美国几时会推出QE3?

QE对全球的金融市场有推动的作用,特别是股票市场。2011年,香港与新加坡股市就是在QE2结束之后急泻而下。不过QE的副作用就是美元贬值及通货膨胀。QE所带来的通胀不单单影响美国,也影响全世界。美国印出来的钞票不会只留在美国本土,而是流向全世界,炒起全球金融市场,甚至房地产。

这也是2012年我们面对的最头痛、难以预测的因素之一。2011年,中国厉行宏观调控政策,欧洲国家开始推动紧缩政府开支计划,这两大紧缩力量使到香港与新加坡政府皆对2012年的展望呈负面。官员多次公开说,2012年将面对很严峻的形势,有经济衰退的可能。面对经济衰退的可能,投资额越少越安全,可是,一旦美国推出QE3,整个经济、股市形势可能逆转。很明显的,2012年是非常具排战性的。

现在来谈欧盟。欧元区国家所面对的问题,2011年是欧债问题很具挑战性的一年,不少人都说希腊就快破产,欧元将解体。不过,至今为止,希腊没有破产,欧元区没有解体。上述言论至今为止,只可以说是国际金融大鳄用来炒作所散发出来的言论。欧盟区27国,欧元区17国,数十年前已开始谈欧洲一体化。今日,欧盟区已成功地让区内各国人民与货物自由流动,不必签证,居民不必付关税,欧元区更共同统一货币。可是,共同统一货币的最大困难是谁也没有印钞票的权力,印钞票上交给欧洲中央银行,这就是欧债危机的最根本因素。

希腊政府在金融海啸之后,不断地发行国债筹集资金以纾解民困,争取民意。可是,过量发行的国债如何还?三家影响全球的美国债务评级机构先后将希腊国家主权债务评级评为垃圾级。从此,希腊政府再也不可能在公开市场发行国债筹钱,没有投资者敢再购买这些国债。过往,西方国家长期地通过发行新国债来偿还到期的旧国债。现在,新国债无力发行,旧国债到期如何还?欧债问题因此而爆发。

不少人都认为,解决这个问题的最简易方法是学美国推出QE政策,由欧洲央行印钞票来买入欧元区诸国的国债,欧盟成员但非欧元区成员的英国已经这么做了。目前英国正在推行自己的QE政策,大印钞票,欧元区的多个政府领袖也支持这个方法。但是,欧元区内经济力量最强的德国却坚决反对,德国总理认为不该由勤劳的国家的人民代为坐享福利的国家的人民付账。相反的,德国总理提出要求欧盟诸国重新签署一份新协议,大家交出部分财政自主权,坚决节约开支,新协议将赋于欧洲“中央政府”有权处罚乱花钱的国家。除英国外,欧盟区26个政府皆同意签署新协议,当然,目前这只是一个意向罢了,正式协议仍有待26国政府进一步谈判。

2010年年底开始,中国政府就鼓励执行银根紧缩政策,银行存款准备金比率不但上升,利率也上升,旨在收回因应政府金融海啸而过度发行的货币,打压通胀,特别是房价。2011年12月初,紧缩银根的政策有放松的迹象,但是,打压房价的措施不变。目前,中国政府也在密切留意美国的金融政策,不敢过快放松银根,以防美国突然推出QE3,使好不容易才压下的通胀重燃。

11月30日中国人民银行宣布降低银行存款准备金率0.5个百分点,无法刺激投资者的信心,接下来一连串经济数据皆不理想,最新的进出口增速回落,使到股市投资者担心经济增长真的放缓,不少人在大谈中国经济硬着陆了。高官们讲话的基调,依然没有丝毫放宽宏观调控的语气。中共中央经济工作会议结束,没有任何好消息也没有坏消息,只是老调重弹地说“稳中求进”,太空洞了。

是的,金融市场变化太大太快,半年前不断贬值的美元,今日成为强势货币,中国还是决定以不变来应变,稳定最重要,因此要稳中求进。不少人对中共中央经济会议的结论感到失望。理由是这次的结论是“稳中求进”,似乎是放弃了过去的要求经济“较快发展”的决心。

中国经济增长放缓也自然影响香港与新加坡,过去许许多多年,香港与新加坡股市紧跟美股步伐,但是2011年,香港和新加坡股市远远落后于美股,因为受到了中国A股表现不佳所影响。

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 股市资讯网
Publish date: 30/12/11

2011年海指大事记

2011年海指大事记
文: 编辑团队 2011年12月30日 展望
海峡时报指数在2011年就像是一列过山车,在世界各大事件的影响下颠簸不断,令投资者的心也跟着七上八下。本篇大事记回顾了过去12个月的重大事件。





Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 股市资讯网
Publish date: 30/12/11

颜子伟:向狂暴的2011说再见;与充满希望的2012说声好

向狂暴的2011说再见;与充满希望的2012说声好
文: 颜子伟 (译:麦美莹) 2011年12月30日 展望
我们其实可以用很多形容词来表达2011年的股市,但“狂暴”这个词应该是非常贴切,因为它包含了喧闹、骚动、不受秩序、充满噪音、心烦意乱及杂乱无章的意思。

如果有需要的话,或许我们可以加上“十分可怕”这个形容词,来表达2011年的股市表现。

首先让我们来看看大部分投资者所追踪的大型环球指数,我们不难发现亚洲股市的表现比道琼斯工商指数的表现来得差。这个美国股市领头羊是唯一一个主要指数在2011年勉强取得升幅,避过一场灾难的发生,因为投资者认为美国联邦储备局可能仍会推出更多量化宽松措施,尽管有明显的迹象显示美国的经济在欧洲主权危机恶化的当儿,能继续增长,并没有像一般人所害怕的掉进衰退中。

如果我们把经济增长这个利好因素与美国即将在2012年11月举行总统大选的情况结合,那么美国市场的表现比世界其他各国的表现佳,投资者应不会感到意外。老实说,当欧洲仍然面对债务危机及衰退隐约出现,基金经理还可以往哪里投资?基金经理也不可能把资金投资于新兴市场,因为对其货品与服务十分需求的终端市场,正因为欧洲的颓势而疲弱,而环球需求也可能放缓,除非美国可以把需求提高。

中国的股市在2011年可说是萎靡不振,自从中国政府收紧银根来对抗通胀后,这个现象便开始出现。上海综合指数在2010年升上3,147点高峰后,便滑落了大约1,000点。如果我们用2011年第一个交易日作为年基数,这个指数的表现不至于太差。

从文中的图表我们可以看到,尽管欧洲发生金融危机,但德国股市的表现仍比亚洲三个股市(中国、香港及新加坡)来得佳。中国是亚洲的新经济大国,但它的表现最疲弱,而恒生指数的表现则被上海股市的表现、中国的经济政策及其自身的政策(抑制产业市场的投机买卖)所拖累。




美国总统大选
有些人士认为股市通常会在大选年高升,因为在任总统将会用尽八宝来刺激经济,好让其得以连任。

如果我们看看自1980年以来的选情,这个论点似乎是对的,但近几次的选举年则没有出现太明显的迹象。

从1980年至1996年,美国每一次举行总统大选,股市都会攀升,除了1984年,后者表现平平。但从2000年起,股市在选举年的表现便不大好,因为2000年适逢科技泡沫爆破,而2004年保持平稳,因为股市在2003年遇上大牛市。

2008年刚好是总统奥巴马在金融危机中入主白宫,股市受到重挫!

我们之前在这个专栏中讨论过利用过往表现来预测股市未来趋势的好处和坏处。可能有些新读者不大清楚,我再次提醒大家,股市的过往表现只可以用作指引,不可以单独用来作投资决定。投资决策主要还是取决于股市当前的情绪。

在目前这个关头,欧洲债务危机的处理手法依然没有令投资者安心,尽管有迹象显示美国股市的表现开始与欧洲危机脱轨。可是,奥巴马受欢迎的程度正在减退,而美国国会敌对两党依然在看准机会来攻击对方,因此总统奥巴马在推出利民政策时,将会面对共和党的阻挠,变得束手无策。美国政府将会在2012年推出的政策包括减税、延长就业优惠等,而预期国会将就这些议题出现更多争辩。

欧洲的恶梦
27个国家中,有17个共用一种货币,其中1个不愿意加入财政联盟。

在经历了超过两年的风风雨雨后,至2011年尾来到这一步还不算太差。尽管有迹象显示在经过一连串的会谈来解决问题后,危机正逐渐消退,但欧洲的恶梦还未有完结。

我们可以说欧洲金融市场受到危机的猛击,但投资者也需要负上部分的责任,因为他们不可以要求欧洲使用美国式的方案来解决危机,即印刷更多的钞票来解决资金缺乏的问题,这个方法对欧洲并不管用。

欧洲央行不获准印刷更多钞票来应急,而最强及最富有的德国也不愿在这个时候负起责任,因为德国很可能认为如果现在出手相助,而没有好好给予它的欧洲好友一顿教训,那就等同于给予挥霍无度的浪子另一个机会,再次可以不负责任地乱花钱。

一旦欧洲国家放弃了它们在收入及开支上的自主权后,欧洲在2012年便很有可能从困境中走出来。然而,2012年将会是2011年的延伸,因为欧洲各国将会就解决债务危机的方案进行更多的商谈和辩论。

政府口硬心软

中国经济是一个由中央主导的经济,所有需要决策的议案都是通过掌权的中央政府来决定。

虽然官方的立场依然是对通胀和产业价格施加压力,但中国政府的态度开始软化,因为它在11月尾把银行存款准备金率调低。

中国的房产价格正在回落。如果房产价格迅即崩溃,这对国家没有什么好处。因此中国很可能会继续监察房价,并会采取一切必须措施来令房产价格逐渐回软,以避免其急降。随着经济目前开始放缓,中国也是时候开始放松借贷,好让在通胀不受刺激下,能维持经济增长。

中国已开始调低银行存款准备金率,而相信在2012年会有更多的调整出现。市场所期待的是利率得以调低,但这只会在房产价格大幅下跌及通胀跌至3%-4%的水平(政府感到舒适的水平)后才会出现。再者,每个人都知道,中央政府需要维持8%的经济增长来确保就业机会。

目前,中国政府需要维持强硬的立场,让市场的期望不会过高,那么通胀才不会进一步升温。当有需要的时候,官方的态度将会软化,而股市将会回稳。

谨慎乐观
随着对经济及企业盈利的增长已经下降,那么要突破市场预期并不难,尤其是用来对比的基数不高。

美国经济应该不大可能掉入衰退中,而我们预期欧洲将会积极去解决债务危机。虽然不容易办到,但根基已经打好,只需各国继续努力。

中国经济在2011年出现盘整,重点仍放在对抗通胀。成功在望,而紧缩周期很可能会在2012年告一段落。

在此祝各位新年快乐,事事如意!

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 股市资讯网
Publish date: 30/12/11

印尼股票将在2012年上升20%

印尼股票将在2012年上升20%
文: 彭博社 (译:伍丽芳) 2011年12月30日 展望
印尼的第三大基金表示,在亚洲股市当中,印尼股市在2011年所取得的涨幅排在第三位,而由于印尼企业的信用评级料将提高,基建开支也将增加,其股市或会在2012年攀升20%。

印尼宏利资产管理(PT Manulife Asset Management,管理约38亿美元)驻雅加达的股票投资主管Yudhistia Susanto表示,标准普尔(Standard & Poor’s)和穆迪投资者服务公司(Moody’s Investors Service)可能跟随国际评级机构惠誉(Fitch Ratings),把印尼的信用评级提升至投资级别。Susanto青睐银行与水泥股,因利率调低及道路、港口和机场项目的开支提高将令它们受惠,但Susanto没有指明是哪几只股票。

Susanto于12月23日所作的一个访问中说:“继惠誉之后,穆迪及标普将在明年把印尼的信用评级调高至投资级别,这将对我们的资金成本带来正面影响。利率也可保持在低水平。”

雅加达综合指数(Jakarta Composite Index,JCI)于12月27日闭市时,下跌0.2%至3,789点,与亚洲市场的跌幅相近(市场在12月26日休市)。在印尼央行为了纾缓通货膨胀而将其基准利率调低至新低位,以及惠誉于12月15日提升印尼的信用评级后,JCI在2011年上升了约2.3%(2010年上升46%)。印尼于1997年的亚洲金融危机丧失投资级别评级。

Susanto表示,JCI明年可能会从目前的水平上升15-20%。彭博社(Bloomberg)整理的数据显示,JCI的成份股正以15.1倍的预估盈利交易,为亚洲仅次于日本的第二高估值。

Susanto说:“可买入的印尼优质股有限。因此,优质股的估值持续提高。在全球经济不明朗的时期,人们往往投资于可带来稳定现金流的业务。”

增长前景
Susanto在9月26日与彭博电视(Bloomberg Television)进行的一个访问中推荐水泥股。自此以后,印尼的两大建材生产商锦石水泥(PT Semen Gresik,PTSG)及PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa的股价上升了至少39%,JCI则上扬14%。

印尼为东南亚最大的经济体,预料它将在2011年取得6.5%的增长,这是自1996年以来最快的增长,即使全球增长放缓。作出该预测的印尼央行说,在欧债危机和中国增长放缓下,国内消费将有助于纾缓出口放缓的情况。央行于11月把其基准利率调低至6%的新低,而印尼的通胀率在11月连续第三个月减低。

惠誉将印尼的长期外国及本地货币评级上调至BBB-(投资级别的最低评级),原因是印尼的‘经济增长强劲和稳健’。印尼因而与印度处在同一评级。

评级前景
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)在一篇于12月16日发布的文告中说:“虽然评级上调对印尼而言是重大的里程碑,起着正面作用,但我们认为债券和股票市场的价格已反映了此利好因素。我们预计股票和债券市场的影响不会太大。”

标普于12月20日在一封答复彭博社的问题的电邮中表示,如果印尼政府继续进行改善财政、行政及体制改革,标普可能上调信用评级。新加坡穆迪的助理副主席Christian de Guzman在12月23日于一封电邮说,印尼的宏观经济表现稳健,“为信用加分,有助于令其评级获上调”。印尼经济统筹部长Hatta Rajasa在12月20日于雅加达告诉记者,标普和穆迪可能在2012年第一季把印尼的评级提高至投资级别。

土地法案
印尼国会于12月16日通过一项土地收购法案,目的在于加快进行基建项目。印尼总统尤多约诺承诺将道路、港口及机场的基建开支加倍至1,400亿美元,以令印尼经济在他余下的任期内(2014年期满)取得6.6%的平均增长。

印尼的2011-2025年发展计划需要4,012万亿印尼盾(4,420亿美元)的投资额,高速公路、港口和发电厂占其中的45%。尤多约诺正试图改善印尼的道路、桥梁和港口,以将年度经济增长提高至多达9%。中国及印度的经济在2011年第三季分别增长9.1%和6.9%。

印尼贸易部长吉塔维亚万(Gita Wirjawan)在12月16日于日内瓦所作的一个访问中表示,法案修改意味着印尼将能够在未来的2或3年内把基建开支加倍。设立于东爪哇的PTSG的股价在土地收购法案通过的那一周上升8.4%。PTSG在12月13日表示,它预计其两座新的水泥厂将在2012年开始投入运作,帮助它满足不断增加的需求。

Susanto说:“除非欧洲传出负面消息,不然全球基金经理应该会将资金再次投放到新兴市场。而印尼为其中颇具吸引力的市场。”


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 股市资讯网
Publish date: 30/12/11

海指开年首周涨2.6%

本地股市在淡静的交易气氛中结束开年第一周的交易。海峡时报指数先抑后扬,盘中一度下滑0.5%至2700点以下水平,不过随后逐渐回升。

  海指闭市报2715.59,微起2.57点。海指在欧洲股市开盘走高的推动下,脱离盘中低点,成功守住2700点水平。分析师预测,从技术面而言海指下周有望继续震荡向上。

  然而,市场毕竟还是担心欧债问题影响欧洲银行,以及关键的美国非农就业数据即将公布,促使投资者操作谨慎,交易量持续偏低,基本跟前日持平。

  整体股市成交量8亿6500多万股,总计近7亿4000万元。下跌股领先上升股,共计211支下跌,197支上升。海指30个成份股起落参半,15支上升及12支下跌。

  意大利联合信贷银行(Unicredit)在宣布以43%折扣发行75亿欧元附加股后,在过去两个交易日里下滑超过30%,这促使投资者担心其他欧洲银行会面临相同的集资问题。

  不过,辉立证券短期内依然看好全球股市走势,因为美国和中国近期公布的经济数据都相对良好。美国经济复苏的乐观情绪,以及中国经济将可避免硬着陆的预期,带动海指开年第一周有了好的开始,共计上涨2.6%,显著领先区域股市。

  区域股市因对欧洲债务危机的担忧重燃,昨日基本全面下滑。日本、韩国和香港等主要市场都下滑超过1.1%,只有中国上海和深圳股市,因石油类股在市场预计政府会调高石油收益金起征点的前提下走高,而成功避免收跌,但涨幅也分别只有0.7%和0.5%。

  个股方面,因宣布找到投资者发展Big Box而在前天暴涨的TT国际,昨日交易量名列前茅,不过股价闭市时维持在4分的水平没有变。金英证券分析师前日闭市后曾告诉路透社,TT国际的长期展望确实相当不错。

  星展银行虽爆出众多储户被盗提事件,不过股价依然走高6分,或0.5%,报11.86元。分析师认为,星展银行的业绩预计不会受事件影响,但银行需重新建立储户对银行的信心。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date:07/01/12

星展四百存户提款卡资料被人从两提款机复制

由于案发至今,所有盗提存款案都是在星期三(4日)和星期四(5日)发生,昨天并没有发现新的盗提案,星展因此相信情况已经受控。它也在昨天给予所有失款存户全额赔偿。

  约400名星展银行(DBS)和储蓄银行(POSB)存户的存款在过去两天里被人盗提,损失总额约50万元。银行表示,歹徒相信是在去年11月利用两台设在武吉士街的提款机,复制存户的提款卡资料,然后通过马来西亚的提款机盗提存款。

  由于案发至今,所有盗提存款案都是在星期三(4日)和星期四(5日)里发生,昨天并没有发现新的盗提案,星展因此相信情况已经受控。它也在昨天给予所有失款存户全额赔偿。

  星展昨天下午临时召开记者会,公布案件初步调查结果。星展银行新加坡总监林森成说,越来越多证据显示,存户的提款卡资料被人复制。

  银行从星期三起就连续收到好一些存户投诉,才发现有人在马国盗提存户的存款,于是立即联络过去几天里,转账记录出现在马国的存户,向他们证实是否曾在马国提款。

  截至昨天中午12时为止,星展银行发现共有约400名存户的钱被盗提,他们多数曾在去年11月下旬的某三天里,在武吉士街(俗称白沙浮)的两台提款机提款。银行因此推测,这两台提款机就是歹徒下手的地方。

  林森成说,全岛所有1100多台星展银行和储蓄银行提款机,都装有由绿色塑料制成的防复制装置,而银行职员并没有在涉案的两台提款机上发现非法阅卡器。

  至于提款卡资料被复制的方法、歹徒干案的日期,以及提款机确切位置,林森成都以案件还在调查中为由,拒绝透露。

2700多人使用涉案提款机

行方已经调阅提款机闭路电视系统拍摄的画面进行调查,同时也检查设置在全岛各地的提款机,确保没有不寻常装置。
  另外,歹徒干案的三天里,有2700多人使用涉案提款机,星展已通知这些存户并注销他们的提款卡或转账卡,换上新卡。星展接下来会向出现马国提款记录的存户,发出手机短信提醒。

  星展也透露,歹徒是在马来西亚的几家银行提款机提款。不过,它目前无法公布歹徒干案地点。根据一个名为tester72的网民在网上公开的转账记录,他的户头存款是歹徒通过设在吉隆坡两个商场里的提款机提走。

  这不是星展银行第一次发生存户存款被盗提的案件,在2006年就有好几名存户蒙受损失,这次受害人多达400名,相信是该银行,也是本地历来最大宗的存户存款被盗提案。

  金融管理局在受询时表示,星展银行已向该局汇报,证据显示,存户存款被盗提的事件应与复制提款卡活动有关。

  星展已对事件进行调查,该局将审核银行的调查报告。商业事务局也在调查此案,并劝请怀疑银行户头存款遭人盗提的存户马上报警。

  金管局说,所谓复制提款卡活动是指在提款机上安装不寻常的阅卡装置,存户若发现这种装置,应立即通知有关银行。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date:07/01/12

Cosco: Brazilian orders priced in (CIMB)

Cosco Corporation
Current S$0.92
Target S$0.92
 Brazilian orders priced in
Cosco has confirmed a US$220m order for two offshore construction vesselsfrom SapuraCrest. This should have beenpriced in as letters of award had been made known since Sep. Further, we are unmoved by the contract’slow profitability.



No changes to our EPSas the contract fallswithin our FY12 ordertarget of US$1.5bn. We maintain Underperform and TP, based on 1.5x P/BV, 10% above its trough of 1.4x.

What Happened
Upon receipt of down-payment, Cosco has confirmed a US$220m order for two offshore construction vessels from an undisclosed Asian company,which we believe to be SapuraCrest.The vessels are scheduled for delivery in 4Q13 and 1Q14. Recallthat Cosco had received lettersof award in lateSep 11. SapuraCrest then had bagged a trio of pipe-laying vessel construction and charter contractsfrom Petrobras for US$1.4bn. The Technip and Odebrecht consortium was awarded two, while Subsea 7 clinched the remainderofPetrobras’ssix pipelay tender.

What We Think
We hadexpected the order and believe the news is in theprice. In addition, we expect marginsto be low asSapuraCrest was reportedly the most aggressive bidderfor the Petrobrastender. Moreover, Cosco could have bidcompetitively to fill up its shipbuilding orderbook. We project more provisions for project losses in the next 12months asCosco executes more offshore projects. 

What You Should Do
We do not see any light at the end of the tunnel for the beleaguered shipbuilder. Execution remains its main risk,with heightened risks from its expansion into the offshore segment. Order outlook remains foggy, as the shipping sector continues to struggle.

Petrobras pushing for six more pipe-layers?
Following the award of six-pack pipelay vessels in 4Q11, Petrobras is reportedly launching another tender for six more pipe-layers. Submission is expected in early 2012. Petrobras is now seeking flexible pipelay vessels (newbuilds or not) with lighter tonne capacity thanthose contracted in the previous round. Further, the Brazilianoil giant has divided the tender into two packages of three vessels. Most companies in the previous tender have been re-invited to participate.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CIMB-Research,
Publish date:06/01/12
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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