Saturday, July 21, 2012

Special dividend hopes drive OCBC share price

Special dividend hopes drive OCBC share price

OCBC's share price yesterday surged to its highest in almost a year.
Teh Shi Ning

Fri, Jul 20, 2012
The Business Times

SINGAPORE - OCBC's share price yesterday surged to its highest in almost a year, on the prospect of a possible special dividend for shareholders.

But analysts say the bulk of the proceeds from the sale of OCBC Bank and its listed subsidiary Great Eastern Holdings' (GEH) stakes in Fraser & Neave (F&N) and Asia Pacific Breweries (APB) are likely to be used to grow OCBC's main financial businesses.

News of the S$3.2 billion sale of OCBC and GEH's combined F&N stake of 18.1 per cent and APB stake of 8 per cent to Thai Beverage and another company drove OCBC's share price to a peak of S$9.52 around noon yesterday.

The counter closed at S$9.49, up 19 cents or 2.04 per cent, after almost 12 million shares changed hands.

GEH's shares gained 18 cents, or 1.31 per cent, to close at S$13.86, after hitting S$14 during the day.

OCBC's estimate of a total post-tax gain of S$1.15 billion for the group, including gains from GEH's disposal, works out to 34 cents per OCBC share.

A portion of this may be paid out as a special dividend, but analysts say shareholders probably will not get the lion's share of proceeds. Said DBS Vickers analyst Lim Sue Lin: "Assuming banks remain on capital conservation mode, OCBC may well use these one-off gains to boost their capital ratios."

Gains from such investments are recognised as Tier 1 capital, and Ms Lim estimates that sales proceeds will add 50 basis points to OCBC's Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio (CAR), which was 11.8 per cent in March.

OSK DMG analyst Leng Seng Choon estimates, based on the assumption of a FY2012 Tier 1 CAR of 15.1 per cent, that OCBC can pay out S$0.9 billion in special dividends or 26 cents per share. This, he expects, would be the upper limit and any special dividend dished out would be smaller.

Most of the proceeds are expected to be re-invested to grow the bank's core financial businesses.

CIMB research head Kenneth Ng noted that in the past, OCBC's divestments were eventually matched with investments in its core business, such as a larger stake in GEH, Bank NISP, Bank of Ningbo, and what is now its private bank, Bank of Singapore.

He reckons that OCBC may use sale proceeds to launch a third privatisation offer for GEH, after failing twice in 2004 and 2006.

Other possibilities include expansion in China through GEH, Bank of Ningbo or new concessionaires, as the China-Singapore free trade agreement has smoothened Singapore banks' China expansion plans.

While this is the first major corporate deal since Samuel Tsien took over as OCBC's chief executive in April, a deal likely initiated by the buyer does not shed clear light on the new management.

"What is clear is that OCBC is now more institutionalised and not sentimental about holding on to old legacy assets," Mr Ng said.

Looking beyond the "knee-jerk" positive share price reaction yesterday and what will likely be stunning Q3 results if the deal closes within the quarter, Mr Ng said this one-off hike in book value does not change concerns over OCBC's earnings volatility.
This article was first published in The Business Times.

Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: Business @ AsiaOne
Publish date: 20/07/12

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Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
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每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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