Friday, July 20, 2012

Singapore Strategy:Singapore Developers 2H Outlook (DBSV)

Singapore Developers 2H Outlook
Property developer stocks have rebounded in the past month, on expectation of lesser immediate policy risks as recent policy measures start to bear fruit in the form of decelerating monthly primary transaction volumes and slowing momentum in sequential home price growth. YTD May
primary sales total 10,687 units and are largely concentrated in the mass market segment. However, concerns over the slowing global economy, the potential spillover effect on Asia and policy watchdogs continuing to signal willingness to act should the situation turns too frothy, will cap upside to stock prices.

We expect the sector to continue to range trade in the 2H with better performance from stocks with less residential exposure.

Key Risks
Key risks to our view are factors such as a hike in interest rates or clampdown in ample liquidity in the system or an increase in investor risk appetite.

Valuation and stock picks
Property stocks are currently trading at an average 31% discount to RNAV, which is just a tick higher than the -1SD level. Our strategy remains to pick stocks with less exposure to the residential sector and have more diversified business model such as CMA and Capitaland. CMA (CMA SP, TP $2.06) offers investors exposure to the pan Asian retail real estate market. Earnings are expected to pick up from FY12 with the bulk (70%) of its portfolio becoming operational. The stock offers 21% upside to target price of $2.06, which is pegged at a 20% discount to asset backing. Capitaland (CAPL SP, TP $3.39) offers attractive valuations at a 44% discount to asset backing of $5.21. The group's reinvestment strategy in recent years into some $11b worth of new projects group-wide would enable it to reap gains when these developments are completed over the next few years.




Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: DBSV-Research,
Publish date: 16/07/12

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Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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