Saturday, December 31, 2011

朦胧利好“远水救不了近火” A股仍将低位震荡

朦胧利好“远水救不了近火” A股仍将低位震荡
作者:福布斯中文网2011-12-20【福布斯中文网】

加强公司治理、打击内幕交易、改革新股发行、鼓励长期资本入市、试水中国版的401K计划等频频见诸媒体,但这些朦胧的利好,无法在短期提振A股。跌宕起伏,四个字可以形容上周A股的走势,前四个交易日大幅下跌,接连击穿2300点、2245点、2200点的心理支撑位,市场一片哀鸿。不少股民哀叹十年A股,黄粱一梦。但在上周五午市后,市场却如遇神助,在朦胧利好的刺激下,大盘放量回升,收复2200点的心理支撑位,似乎表明大盘短线趋势渐趋乐观。那么,这是否意味着本周A股市场将相对坚挺?

博时基金宏观策略部总经理魏凤春认为,股市下跌、商品下跌、黄金下跌、债市升势受阻,市场依旧呈现疲弱的态势。市场自身的力量积聚尚待时日。

国外方面,欧洲债务危机暂时平静,但长期的结构性问题仍未得到实质性解决。二季度以来全球经济一直处于较为疲弱的状况,发达国家持续的减杠杆过程尚未结束,而他们的财政、货币政策扩张空间均已相当有限,明年国外经济有可能延续当前的缓慢增长状况,只要没有新的确定的增长动力,就难以找到稳定的持续的市场自身的上涨动力。疲弱的经济使得全球商品价格继续维持向下滑趋,与之相对应的是资源国汇率的普遍下跌。

国内方面,流动性有望整体趋稳向暖。随着后续定向宽松政策推进,存准率以及存贷比监管的相应调整,加之春节后存款回流等季节(春节)性因素,新增信贷额度有望扩大,银行间资金面可保持宽裕,资金价格将进入窄幅波动区间。

但是市场的颓势短期难改。一方面,今年的中央经济工作会议定调稳增长,一定程度上不及市场此前预期。未来一段时期,滞胀的可能性大于衰退,在增长与估值中枢下移后,市场还将在低位徘徊。另一方面,大宗商品价格全面回落,上游资源类资产面临持续风险。中游制造企业在需求收缩的情况下被动补库存,盈利压力日趋加大。此前一直维持相对高位的制造业投资增速,在某些下游早周期的消费类行业中也已出现向下的迹象,这都值得投资者的重视。

在持续低迷的市场中,逐步听到渐起的外部变革的声音,市场对制度红利的诉求变得强烈。政府及各相关主体变革的意向显出萌动甚至加快的迹象。加强公司治理、打击内幕交易、改革新股发行、鼓励长期资本入市、试水中国版的401K计划等等改革的呼声与建议越来越频繁见诸报端。但这些朦胧的利好,显然“远水难救近火”。在实体经济中,当前的通胀下行,为要素价格改革、放松管制腾挪出必要的空间,亦是吸引民间资本共同保证经济稳定、防范金融风险的不二法门。因此,尽管市场自身的力量尚难积聚,但外部变革之声或正酝酿一股新的力量。


个股方面,文化传媒板块依旧是资金活跃的主线,虽然拥有政策支撑,但没有业绩与成长预期支撑的文化传媒板块,显然难以成为市场涨升的引擎。相对应的是,ST股等垃圾股、重组股仍将继续走低,甚至有激进的分析人士认为,在打击内幕交易、防范重组内幕的大背景下,ST股将出现大批量的1元股。

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 福布斯中文网
Publish date:

S'pores economy grew 4.8% in2011




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.channelnewsasia.com/video/
Publish date: 31/12/11

2012:中国股市的鸡肋之年?

2011/12/30 16:37:16
2012:中国股市的鸡肋之年?
傅峙峰

2011年中国股市惨淡收场,上证综指年度下跌21.68%,创下了历史上第三大年度跌幅,仅次于2008年和1994年。2012年即将到来,在新的一年,中国股市会如何表现?

首先要再次明确一下,影响股市涨跌的核心是供求关系。简单地说,就是市场上有多少股票和股票增速如何,有多少钱和钱的增速如何,这两点是潜在供求关系的基础。随后要看股票的吸引力有多大,这包括股票贵不贵?盈利增速如何?这些因素决定潜在供求关系如何转变成实际供求关系。

在股票供给方面,必须要清楚的一点是,中国监管当局将扩大直接融资比例作为“十二五”期间的一项重点工作,这就意味着,在相当长的一段时间内,市场会一直承受供给压力。根据安永会计事务所预测,2012年A股市场全年IPO融资额将超3000亿元人民币。这一规模仍保持在相当高的水平,而且过去两年因IPO和再融资产生的大小限解禁,也会增加市场的供给压力。

在货币供给方面,这一情况会较2011年有所改善,因为中国紧缩的货币政策已经出现拐点,但政策放松力度可能会令市场失望。根据“十二五”规划和日前中央经济工作会议的基调,2012年中国政府试图主动降低经济增速,减少投资规模比例,希冀以结构转型来进行经济软着陆。因此,中国央行2012年的货币政策基调与2011年相比未有变化,配合经济和投资增速下降的货币投放增速会维持在低位。从量上来看,现在市场普遍预计明年新增信贷约在8万亿元左右,与今年的7.5万亿元相比增长很少。此外,经济增速放缓预期再加上中国还试图平衡贸易顺差,人民币升值预期有所动摇,外汇占款增长也可能低于过去几年的平均水平。

2009年中国政府4万亿刺激计划出台并配套了大量货币供给,依靠房地产和“铁公基”等项目拉动信贷需求,但从今年开始的中国各级政府压缩投资项目和维持房地产调控来看,来自于政府推动的投资需求将远不如2009年那么强烈。而经济周期过程中自然产生的市场化信贷需求,目前还看不到积极的改善迹象。

从2012年股票和货币供给的全局情况来看,尽管较2011年都会有所改善,但都不会有天翻地覆的变化。除非明年某个阶段因中国股市极度低迷导致一级市场融资困难,不然潜在供求关系很难让市场产生任何惊喜。

在股票的估值和盈利增速方面,在经济增速回落预期和货币增速维持相对低位的预期下,股市整体的估值中枢和盈利增速很可能呈缓慢的趋势性下滑。而且,现在沪深股市整体市盈率虽然到了历史低位,但由于市场内部结构分化严重,上证综指和沪深300所代表的估值水平并不能反映市场估值的全貌。

根据万得数据统计,目前两市剔除市盈率最高的500个个股,算数平均市盈率为26.05倍;市盈率最高的500个个股,算数平均市盈率为314倍(剔除了亏损);剔除银行是16倍(但包括了石油、煤炭、钢铁和机械等),不剔除银行是10.5倍。由此可见,现在市场的估值,除了权重蓝筹外,其他品种都不具备十足的安全边际,甚至在经济增速下滑的大背景下,还有一定的风险。

市场内的不同品种,如果根据市值大小、估值高低和政策扶持来划分,会看出各方的优劣。其中市值大估值低的权重蓝筹股,在估值方面具备一定吸引力,但由于大市值的阻碍,不一定会有强劲的上涨表现,因为市场中的资金并不足以支撑这些大市值品种。

而在估值高和市值低的品种方面,虽然面对的资金支持需求较小,但高估值仍将是风险。尤其是在郭树清主事中国证监会后,明确表示要整顿市场支持蓝筹,这就意味着,支撑高估值品种的传统操作模式可能面临一定的监管风险。

至于在有政策扶持的行业层面上,相关品种则可能面临两个主要问题。第一是以战略新兴产业为主的品种,由于政策态度已经明朗,股价已经包含了政策推动预期,所以估值溢价已经存在。第二是这些品种目前只处于政策扶持的初步阶段,而且与政府拉动的投资不同,其成长周期的初始阶段比较缓慢,因此还不能为市场兑现盈利预期,这是一个较大的不确定性。

于是,以往货币政策放松初期,中小市值品种和概念品种不受流动性限制率先群魔乱舞的情况,可能不会继续表现明显。监管层试图引导的且确实具备更多安全边际的蓝筹股,又可能面临流动性压力而表现较为一般。而政策明确扶持的新兴产业等行业,其溢价面临一定时间期限内能否兑现的不确定性。

因此,总体来看,2012年中国股市的整体表现可能要好于2011年,但也难有什么出彩的地方,除非有IPO暂停等事件性催化剂发生。在投资品种方面,蓝筹股的稳定表现可期,其他品种则面临盈利增长和估值的风险。

在这种环境中,中国股市的整体表现可能比较“鸡肋”,投资要获取超越市场的收益,从上而下的策略或不及从下而上的策略有效,此外波段操作也是获取额外收益的关键。当然,出于安全性和稳定性考虑,以沪深300标的为主的蓝筹品种,预计会是规模资金的主要基础配置。

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 华尔街日报
Publish date: 30/12/11

2012,有关中国经济的三大疑问

2011年 12月 30日 07:28
2012,有关中国经济的三大疑问
JOSEPH STERNBERG

2011年初,中国经济的增长率超过9%。就在不久前,在2010年11月的首尔20国集团(G20)峰会上,中国刚刚取得了一场胜利:即中国应拿出更多行动促进全球经济再平衡,从而展示自己是可靠的经济大国。由于美国经济低迷,欧洲进一步陷入一场看似无休止的危机之中,许多企业认为中国是一个重要的后备力量。

到了2011年底,世界的看法变得颇为不同。现在大家主要关心的是中国经济能否实现软着陆。近来许多企业开始提高警惕,资本也开始流出中国。2011年最终成了投资者和管理者对中国经济提出新的质疑的一年。

2012年会有很多人思考以下三个问题:

中国能够实现转型,成功扩大内需吗?

虽然这一问题事关宏观经济再平衡,但它对微观经济也有影响。当外国人说,他们“希望中国能加大消费量”,他们其实想说的是能加大对外国产品的消费量。到目前为止,外国消费品和重型设备厂商已经尝到了一些甜头。随着中国经济更加繁荣,中国人对洗发水、电池、计算机和拖拉机的消费量也在提升,这些产品中就有部分是国外制造的。

但消费在经济中的占比仍然大大低于本应有的水平。增加消费品的消费量只能部分缩小这种差距。真正可挖掘的潜力在服务业。美国等国在服务业这一领域有较强的比较优势,其对中国的出口原本可能大大增加。但中国政府仍然固执地封闭这一领域,其中有一部分是出于政治原因。就像谷歌(Google)在2010年发现的那样,由于服务业助长了人际联系,它们可能会对专制国家形成威胁。

2011年,中国政府在“十二五”规划中承诺扩大国内需求。那些认为这一转型能够实现的人说,如果中国政府这样承诺,那么它一定会找到某种办法确保承诺能够实现。但这种逻辑适用于“扩大消费”一说吗?虽然投资主导的经济增长模式可以很容易地撬动杠杆(只要投资是由一系列与国家相关的企业进行的),但真正的国内需求却是由中国14亿消费者说了算的。

中国企业的可信度有多高?

近来,许多西方投资者对在加拿大、美国或欧洲上市的中国企业存在的欺诈风险提高了警惕。美国证券交易委员会(Securities and Exchange Commission,简称:SEC)对“反向并购”这种上市手法的谴责引发审计方辞职、会计不合规的指控以及市场出现卖空狂潮,并在这种情况下演变成了一系列上市公司被摘牌,股东提出诉讼以及监管机构展开调查的事件。

其中有些公司可能纯粹是骗子公司。但对于其他很多公司来说,一种似乎有道理的说法是,这些公司是合法公司,但他们不得不将自己装扮成骗子公司,以适应中国令人窒息的监管环境。这种说法是对目前为止最有名的涉及在加拿大多伦多上市的嘉汉林业(Sino-Forest)的丑闻的一种大度解读。该公司设立复杂的公司结构的初衷可能主要是为了保护在中国缺乏正常产权保护的林业资产。

花几分钟思考一下,这到底意味着什么。中国最具创业精神的公司为什么要在海外上市?他们为何无法在国内获得充足的资金?这些公司认为光明正大地经营竟如此困难,这对中国的经济发展又意味着什么?在一个鼓励(甚至迫使)公司伪造账目的监管体系的基础之上建立起来的经济是否可持续?

印尼又是什么情况?

2011年一个出人意料的主题是,投资者对印尼的兴趣持续增强。鉴于印尼6%的经济增长率和随着经济增长加速而逐渐显现的庞大潜在消费者基础,投资者青睐印尼并不足为奇。突然之间,投资者似乎不像过去那样因雅加达臭名远扬的交通拥堵和猖獗的腐败行为而踌躇不前了。

随着投资者重新发现了中国之外亚洲其他地方,“印尼故事”只是一种更大趋势的一部分。泰国正在努力从洪灾中恢复之际,该国也将大力欢迎外国投资者的进入。低端制造商则开始转向柬埔寨。

印度今年的反腐行动揭示出公众对政府的日益不满,这可能推动政府有朝一日制定更加鼓励竞争的经济政策。外国企业正在等待进入印度的首个机会。

如果日本加入《泛太平洋战略经济伙伴关系协议》(Trans-Pacific Partnership)贸易协议为外国企业创造了新的机遇,即使是顽固守旧的日本可能也会很快成为外国企业重新考虑的对象。所有这一切都意味着中国不能再指望自己是唯一一个吸引人的希望之地了。

这些问题并不一定预示着2012年中国会硬着陆。不过,这些问题确实表明,在新的一年中,企业和投资者将以更具批判性的全新眼光看待中国。最重要的问题是:中国怎样才能经受住这样严格的审视?


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 华尔街日报
Publish date: 30/12/11

2011年中国股市为何如此低迷?

011/12/30 08:03:53
2011年中国股市为何如此低迷?

银国宏

2011年,中国股市比2010年更加难堪,不仅指数跌幅显著扩大,而且,从细分行业的涨跌来看呈现全军覆没格局。根据WIND数据,23个申万一级子行业的年度涨幅全部为负,平均下跌近28%。而2010年下跌的主要是大市值行业(金融、地产、钢铁、交通运输),其他如消费品和电子信息等多数行业均取得年度正收益。

笔者认为,中国A股市场如此低迷的原因,大致可以归纳为如下四点:

第一、金融体系的结构性失衡是深层次的根本原因。这主要表现为,股票市场作为一个风险市场,并不能通过高收益来完成风险补偿,但银行理财产品和信托产品等却提供了一个看起来没有风险但收益却很好的固定收益市场,再加上以各种高利贷形式存在的民间融资市场,直接导致居民及企业资金流出股市。

第二、股票市场的制度性改革滞后于股票市场规模的扩张。这主要表现为上市公司经营压力缺乏制度性约束,融资机制与股市资金流失缺乏有效匹配机制。一方面,股票市场作为股权交易的平台,上市公司理应面临退市和控制权威胁两大制度约束,但A股市场显然不具备这样的制度环境,上市公司经营缺乏来自股票市场的外部压力;另一方面,股票市场的融资机制滞后于股票市场规模的扩张机制,特别是在资金流失的背景下,大规模融资就显得特别突兀。虽然笔者一直不认为新股发行是造成股票市场低迷的最重要原因,但在融资规模和存量规模的匹配方面的确存在错配现象。

第三、产业资本超越金融资本掌握定价权。产业资本拥有更强大定价权的深层次原因是资本市场的造富机制远远大于实业经营,导致很多企业家的长期经营信念下降,在较短时间内全部或部分兑现多年积累财富的欲望比较强烈。这一点可能在未来很长时间内都没有办法根本性改变,因此A股市场估值中枢可能要经历长期的整体性下移的过程。

第四、宏观经济层面的确存在巨大的不确定性。从长期来看,在制度红利、人口红利和WTO红利等多重刺激下的经济增长模式面临巨大的转型压力,而转型又遇到了通货膨胀的制约。转型的不确定性,特别是新的主导性产业培育和形成的不确定性,使得股票市场对未来经济呈现非常悲观的预期。

当前的格局似乎与1993-1996年的情形有点类似,不同的是,当时进行宏观调控的主要手段是持续加息,而最后引发熊转牛的因素是“经济软着陆”,标志性事件是连续降息。而目前进行宏观调控的主要手段是存款准备金率上调和信贷规模管理,未来不确定的是经济能否真的“软着陆”,标志性事件当然应该和货币政策的调整相关。

那么,2012年A股市场的转机又会在哪里触发呢?

第一、经济去地产化的进程对固定收益市场和民间融资市场形成挤压。从当前实体经济的数据来看,以房地产和矿产为核心支撑的固定收益市场和民间融资市场的收益率应该是存在高估和不可持续的,2012年一季度陆续进入兑付阶段以后,应该会有一个全社会金融资产的释放和再分配过程,但一个基本前提是,不能出现大量的不兑付现象,上述高收益市场不能以泡沫破裂的方式收场。关于流动性的再分配,笔者有两个判断:一个是财富可能外流,即美国经济复苏过程中可能形成的美元强势会具有一定的吸引力,另一个是债券市场可能优先表现出一定的吸引力。当然,股票市场在这个再分配过程中也会分一杯羹,但需要依靠自身的制度性变革和经济软着陆的共振。

第二、经济软着陆后形成的虚拟经济超越实体经济的资金分配格局。经济软着陆成功首先会夯实股票市场的估值基础,不再需要通过估值折扣来体现悲观预期。但软着陆成功并不一定意味着经济很快复苏,也就是资金投资实体经济的预期回报不会马上改善,特别是处于经济转型阶段,这一过程可能会被拉长,所以虚拟经济的吸引力会在一个阶段内超越实体经济,这对A股市场是一个好的契机。这个过程同1996年-1997年股市好转也具有一定的相似性,但在目前产业资本势力强大的新背景下,好转程度或许会打折扣。

第三、经济转型政策指引和股票市场制度性创新带来的结构性机会。经济转型虽然不会一蹴而就,但具有强烈导向性的政策在2012年会表现的更加清晰,例如,结构性减税、增值税改革、要素价格改革和居民收入改善系列措施等等,这会为一些服务业及创新型产业提供一个宽松的发展空间。此外,在指数重新回到10年前后,制度改革的需求会更加迫切,呼声也会更高,一旦有实质性进展,除了股票市场自身的吸引力会缓慢改善外,证券公司也会有所受益。

如果回到当前来看的话,笔者延续上一篇专栏《中国股市正经历政策转暖后的艰苦阶段》中的观点,A股市场在2012年一季度仍将面临严峻考验。

(作者银国宏,东兴证券股份有限公司副总经理,中国社会科学院经济学博士,中国注册会计师(CPA)。曾出版《中国资本市场与产业绩效关系研究》、《牛股指南》等专著。文中所述仅代表他的个人观点。)

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 华尔街日报
Publish date: 30/12/11

中国泡沫一旦破灭 投资者该怎么办?

2011年 12月 28日 12:38
中国泡沫一旦破灭 投资者该怎么办?

投资的终极目标就是在泡沫破灭之前看穿这是个泡沫。要实现这一目标,一方面要靠技术,另一方面要靠大量的运气。

曾为私募股权投资者、现任耶鲁大学(Yale University)教授的曼沙拉马尼(Vikram Mansharamani)不久前曾就这个话题写了一本书。在他看来,在过去的一年里,从膨胀的信贷到屡创新高的艺术品价格等一系列软硬指标都是中国经济泡沫即将破灭的警示信号。

不过对于中国经济增长引擎一旦从9%左右放缓至4%的情况下该去哪里“避难”,他也有一些想法。4%是他预测的中国未来10年平均经济增幅。

一句话,卖空大宗商品生产商的股票和相关资产。其中可能包括巴西公司的股票、澳元以及必和必拓(BHP Billiton)这样的资源类巨头。

曼沙拉马尼说,我不看好大宗商品以及大宗商品生产国,对任何支撑中国投资热潮的人我都不抱信心。

然而从更长期的角度来看,某些自然资源正面临供应吃紧的状况,他因此而青睐某些种类的大宗商品投资,也就是那些未来会因尚未开发的储量而进一步产生回报的投资。

他说,新兴市场将会继续增长,增长的速度可能比人们所预想的要慢,但随着这些市场的增长,对石油的需求将会上升,我们会看到供应难以为继的迹象。

登顶与恐慌

曼沙拉马尼在耶鲁大学讲授一门如何发现下一次市场繁荣和崩溃的课程(舍此其谁?)。他最担心的问题是,中国当前正处于一种不可持续的发展过程中,而正是这种不可持续的发展过程令美国房价、股市和日本股市先冲上高点、随后陷入恐慌。

2010年夏天写作《经济兴衰学》(Boombustology)一书时,他注意到一些指标,从中国空置购物中心的数量到艺术品拍卖屡创纪录的天价(其中一些是中国富豪买家推上去的),再到高度打破世界纪录的摩天大楼的兴建。他说,在以往的经济发展热潮中,这些现象都预示着泡沫即将破灭。

曼沙拉马尼说,我唯一最大的恐惧就是中国经济增长极大放缓,从而暴露出工业用大宗商品和新兴市场产能严重过剩的状况。

自曼沙拉马尼今年10月首次为本文接受MarketWatch采访以来,已经有众多指标显示出中国这条巨龙已经开始显得有些疲惫了。相关的股票和大宗商品价格已经大跌。

中国制造业调查显示该领域于11月陷入收缩,PMI指数出现了2009年以来的最低值。11月底,中国央行下调了银行存款准备金率,似乎是在对经济可能出现的问题做出回应。

曼沙拉马尼在10月中旬的一次采访中说,对于任何国家来说,放松信贷都是承认经济正在走软的最明显不过的表示;我认为我的理论正在变成现实。

而上证综合指数跌回至2009年水平,为那些将上证指数视为中国经济增长风向标的美国和欧洲的投资策略师敲响了警钟。

1. 卖空全球供应公司

曼沙拉马尼说,如果这些数据点只是更深远的衰退之始,那么全球航运公司尤其容易受到影响。

这是因为,航运业仍在增加新的产能,来履行全球经济增长和航运需求炙手可热时接到的订单。

中国经济增长急剧放缓可能会在全球供应链行业引发连锁效应,从提供贸易融资的银行、港口运营商到物流公司都将受到波及。

曼沙拉马尼说,任何一个参与喂养中国“投资猛兽”的人都会被认为产能过剩。

航运业已经开始受到影响。一些人担心,如果中国经济增长突然放缓,很多航运公司可能会被迫倒闭。

今年11月,油轮运营商General Maritime Corp.根据美国破产法第11章,以油轮运费下跌为由申请了破产保护。航运公司Frontline Ltd.的股价今年暴跌了84%,船舶公司DryShips Inc.的股票大跌了60%。

2. 卖空工业金属及其生产商

据美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)的统计,中国今年对铝、铜、铅、镍和锌等金属的需求增长占全球总需求增长的一半以上。因此,中国经济增速减半会进一步压低这些金属的价格以及生产商的股价,这并不令人意外。

铜价自今年7月以来已经下跌了24%,向投资者发出全球经济面临危险的信号。

Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold、美国钢铁公司(U.S. Steel Corp.)、力拓股份有限公司(Rio Tinto)以及巴西淡水河谷公司(Vale)等金属生产巨头的股价今年都下跌了三分之一左右甚至更多,相比之下,美国大多数股票价格今年全年接近持平。

曼沙拉马尼说,我个人会对供应限制似乎并不那么紧张的工业大宗商品保持警惕。

是什么让曼沙拉马尼对中国如此担心呢?

除一些基本经济指标(如信贷规模有多大)外,他还关注那些显示投资者极度自信的指标。

艺术品市场是个大万花筒,透过它可以看到特定人群财富集聚的现象,如过去10年是俄罗斯寡头,上世纪90年代是美国互联网投资者,而80年代则是日本公司高管。曼沙拉马尼指出,拍卖行苏富比(Sotheby’s)的股价一直随着这些趋势的来去而起伏。今年4月,苏富比的股价一度超过55美元,是2009年3月低位的九倍,可谓成绩斐然。

今年3月,纽约举行了亚洲艺术周。由于颇具竞争力的中国买家的捧场,艺术周总成交额创下了历史纪录。

曼沙拉马尼说,你也许听到很多破全球拍卖纪录的艺术品价格,但是要小心,这个水平是难以为继的。

虽然中国买家目前仍趋之若鹜地前往艺术品和红酒拍卖会,但拍卖价格已经不再屡破纪录。

3. 避免投资巴西、南非和澳大利亚

巴西、南非、澳大利亚和加拿大全都与中国经济增长密切相关,因为自然资源出口对这些国家的经济来说发挥着巨大作用。有人已经开始对全球经济增速担忧不寒而栗。曼沙拉马尼说,如果中国经济增速从放缓变成大幅下滑,这些国家都会受到不利影响。

巴西今年第三季度经济增速放缓令部分投资者感到震惊。一只追踪巴西市场表现的iShares交易所交易基金今年下滑了25%。巴西货币雷亚尔今年贬值了12%。

曼沙拉马尼说,澳大利亚经济显得尤其脆弱,因为受中国推动的自然资源部门的繁荣已对澳洲就业、房地产和金融市场产生了溢出效应。

曼沙拉马尼问道:如果中国经济减速,矿业公司招聘需求放缓,会对澳大利亚房地产市场以及持有住房抵押贷款的银行产生怎样的影响?

4. 买多石油

曼沙拉马尼认为,由于价格不断上涨,石油和食品长期来看都将面临供应紧张的局面。

基于这一点,那些坐拥大规模资源组合的公司目前处于最有利的位置,而那些正在迅速开发资源或准备进行开发的公司则不被看好。

曼沙拉马尼说,市场对高产的肥料投入和石油公司估值过高,我认为你们最好持有拥有大量资产储备的公司股票,而且从储备角度看,这些股票目前价格很低。

美国经纪公司Sterne Agee & Co.石油类股票分析师麦卡利斯特(Michael McAllister)认为,阿纳达科石油公司(Anadarko Petroleum Corp.)就有一个可供勘探的资源组合,而且它拥有的资源规模就公司规模来说,可与埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil Corp.)等石油巨头相匹敌。

麦卡利斯特说,能源公司Noble Energy Inc.的资源组合规模相对也比较大。他对这两个公司都给出买入评级。

5. 买入农业类股票

由于长期看好基本大宗商品的全球需求,曼沙拉马尼对农业投资品也持乐观态度,如化肥类股和食品生产商等。

关键因素是,政府食品供给(如水和化肥成分)可能会面临严格限制。

曼沙拉马尼指出,未来40年,我们可能会看到碳酸钾的价格达到峰值。

另外,即使中国经济增速降至年均4%,财富的适度增长也意味着将有越来越多的家庭可以增大食品开支。

曼沙拉马尼说,只要增长一点,吃饭时就能加肉菜了。

Laura Mandaro

本文译自MarketWatch


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 华尔街日报
Publish date: 28/12/11

與時拼經.溫故知新2012 2012年最讓人拭目以待的財子

與時拼經.溫故知新2012 2012年最讓人拭目以待的財子


走完絲毫都不沉悶的2011年,踏入2012年的第一天,《中國報》與你點評2012年最受矚目的企業家。
他們有些是投資者再熟悉不過的臉孔,也有些是連媒體也未曾有緣見其真面目的低調鉅子。
但且看他們今年如何繼續在國內企業界掀起千層浪,大家拭目以待!

劉啟盛 會留多久?
★丹斯里劉啟盛
實達集團(SPSETIA,8664,主要板房產)總裁兼總執行長
雖然口口聲聲說“不走”,究竟劉啟盛還會留多久?還是先前與國民投資機構(PNB)及實達集團達成惠及三方的“管理層利惠合約”,能讓他繼續引領集團再闖高峰?
沒有經營房地產公司良好紀錄的國投,去年9月28日向市場投下一顆震撼彈,宣佈以3.90令吉獻購實達集團母股,和91仙收購憑單,但將保留后者上市地位。
多年來身為靈魂人物的劉啟盛自是非常訝異,但就連董事局也不能接受,當天晚上就聲明嫌棄國投出手太低,不但要求上調獻購價,更邀請有興趣的買家競購。
國投此舉,最讓市場擔心的是劉啟盛的去留,畢竟他的決定會使實達起很大的化學作用,再來則是兩者的合作關係會否存有裂痕。
但國投形同“惡意收購”的作法,據悉引起布城高官介入,導致國投和劉啟盛重返談判桌上,后來洐生“管理層利惠合約”,目前仍有待證券監督委員會批准。
在劉啟盛的領航下,實達集團其中最成功的房產計劃是實達生態景苑(Setia Eco Park),后來更進一步拓展澳洲房產業務。

林國泰 忙複製亞洲成功
★丹斯里林國泰
雲頂集團(Genting Group)主席兼總執行長
小小一個大馬竟能揚名海外的博彩業,不能不歸功于高瞻遠矚的林國泰,因為新加坡47億美元(約148億令吉)的聖淘沙名勝世界(RWS),已未能滿足他的胃口。
隨著美國“手頭吃緊”,但又希望降低失業率和財政開銷,無疑為林國泰提供絕佳大展拳腳的機會。
雲頂集團在美國紐約市當地的首座賭場,已在當地時間的去年10月28日開幕,成功打響首炮。
他的眼光不局限于紐約,卻放眼斥資38億美元(約120億令吉)在邁阿密市興建全球最大的賭場,但若美國佛羅里達州草擬的新博彩法令碰釘,這個雄心壯志不曉得該何去何從?
雖然賭場往往被視為與“偏門生意”脫離不了關係,林國泰卻信誓旦旦一定能成功,並把亞洲業務模式複制到海外。
這翻言論,應當包括英國業務,因為雲頂2010年12月收購虧損中的雲頂英國時,曾引起股東不滿。
如今雲頂英國業務已獲改善,加上去年8月取得在伯明翰興建賭場的執照,林國泰不懂能否在股東大會向股東證明,當初的收購決定是明智的。

賽莫達 公司排隊掛牌
★丹斯里賽莫達
馬礦業(MMCCORP,2194,主要板貿易)、多元資源(DRBHCOM,1619,主要板工業)和貿易風(TWS,4421,主要板消費)大股東
土著鉅富賽莫達向來異常低調,很少媒體有緣見其廬山真面目,去年卻一連相中3家政聯企業,目前戰績1勝1負,關鍵的第三戰普騰控股(PROTON,5304,主要板消費)能否如愿以償?
他旗下的馬礦業據悉曾參與搶購南北大道(PLUS),卻敗給國庫控股和公積金局。
后來多資成功以每股3.60令吉或總值6億2279萬令吉,收購大馬郵政(POS,4634,主要板貿易)32.21%股權,終于讓賽莫達扳回一城。 
但他雄心未止于此,繼2009年併購普騰失敗后,如今依然緊盯普騰不放。
據了解,他積極與馬銀行投銀商談,以收購國庫控股持有普騰的42.7%控股股權,多資更獲得普騰顧問敦馬哈迪力挺。
為了加強自己的物流業王國,他也獻購檳城港口(Penang Port),能否進一步奠定物流業霸主的地位還看這一役。
最讓投資者期待的是馬礦業宣佈,讓旗下3家子公司重新上市,包括大馬天然氣(Gas Malaysia)、馬拉卡(Malakoff)和柔佛港口(Johor Port)。

東尼 繼續玩FUN企業界
★丹斯里東尼費南德斯
亞洲航空(AIRASIA,5099,主要板貿易)總執行長
東尼的曝光率早已跑出財經版以外,堪稱大馬企業界最“瘋”的CEO,今年續有攫奪市場目光的理由。
亞航去年成立十週年之際,透過與馬航(MAS,3786,主要板貿易)換股締盟,他終于一圖國家航空公司的夢想。
哪怕交易尚未完成,朝野投射異樣質詢眼光,2012年迎來換股締盟的一週年,從不介意被稱為狂人的東尼,能否繼續把“瘋子”高瞻遠矚的理念貫徹到底?
若再無任何意外,亞航旗下的泰國亞航和印尼亞航將在今年上市。
東尼到時將獲“擢升”為區域業務總執行長,市場期待他會否正式欽點國內業務的接班人,並進一步擬定退休計劃。
去年7月,他出手買下英超球會女王公園騎兵(QPR),成為購買英超球會的第一個大馬人,加上燒錢的第一方程式大賽,不曉得這一位新生代的企業大亨今年還有什么搞作。
只是敢怒敢言的他,去年因為機場稅漲幅,先是炮轟交通部,再來槓上大馬機場控股(AIRPORT,5014,主要板貿易),想必一定會繼續不平則鳴的作風,讓國內企業界永存火花。

郭令燦 英美下重注
★丹斯里郭令燦
豐隆集團(Hong Leong Group)聯合創辦人兼主席
自1963年聯合創辦豐隆集團以來,郭令燦從未停止製造市場焦點,如今重心更移到英美兩國,只是眼見出師不利,他該如何扭轉乾坤?
去年5月,他透過香港國浩集團向雲頂集團收購英國朗克集團(Rank Group)11.6%股權,在這家擁有當地47張賭場執照的集團持股提高到41%。
由于觸及29.9%的強制收購門檻,國浩因而提出每股1.5英鎊(約7.4令吉)的全面獻購,截至去年7月18日的獻議截止日期的累積持股達74.5%。
儘管他被稱為“貪婪的賭徒”,對于朗克的未來發展前景,一無所知的市場甚是期待。
去年8月中他再透過國浩出手,入股美國航空的母公司AMR集團,以7.3%持股躍升第四大股東。
他這一役卻出師不利,因為負債高達295.5億美元(約933億令吉)的AMR集團,去年11月尾向紐約法院申請破產,投資價值直線下挫。
但身家達48億美元(約152億令吉)的郭令燦而言,偶失一局的銀碼或許只七是九牛一毛。

阿南達 股民期待甜頭
★阿南達克里斯南
明訊、Astro大股東
阿南達這位媒體大亨,儘管旗下的明訊在印度傳出負面消息,但市場仍期待他旗下公司今年還會再上市嗎?
印度中央調查局去年10月10日入稟法院,指控阿南達與Astro集團總執行長雷爾夫馬歇爾,涉嫌明訊(MAXIS,6012,主要板貿易)與印度Aircel的刑事陰謀案。
但阿南達早在去年9月底,透過三人的新加坡仲裁小組,否認以不正當手法收購Aircel公司,並否認對印度官方行賄。
至于調查結果會否為明訊帶來任何衝擊,目前則仍是未知數。
市場更期待的是,阿南達今年會否重施故技,讓旗下Astro或其中一家相關公司,重投馬股懷抱。
除了ASTRO,他也在2010年私有化東亞衛星(MEASAT)和丹絨(TANJONG)。
因為他先前私有化的明訊和布米亞馬大(ARMADA,5210,主要板貿易),已先后在2009年和2011年重新上市,不但在馬股泛起不小漣漪,更讓小股東嘗到不少甜頭。

葉永松 低調仍露頭角
★丹斯里葉永松
富達置地(DUTALND,3948,主要板貿易)和奧林比亞(OLYMPIA,3018,主要板貿易)董事經理
葉永松與大馬彩(PMP)失之交臂后,下個“血拼”目標會是什么?與IOI集團(IOICORP,1961,主要板種植)的糾紛告一段落后,會否再出售沙巴油棕園?
以“Duta Yap”較為人所熟悉的他,去年和旗下企業一點都沒閒著,可惜幾項企劃皆無功而返。
早在去年初,他透過旗下的奧林比亞獻購國內第三大的測字業者(NFO)大馬彩。
若成功得標,對在沙巴經營博彩業務的奧林比亞無疑乃一大激勵,可惜的是,葉永松敗給以林國泰為首的企業家財團。
林國泰去年8月聯合國內12位著名華商和1名新加坡印裔富豪,以20億令吉成功向鉅富阿南達收購大馬彩。
此外,葉永松旗下的富達置地原本計劃以8億3000萬令吉,把沙巴1萬1977公頃油棕園賣給IOI集團。
IOI集團去年10月卻藉著“未能符合部分條款”為由,取消收購計劃,但因為富達置地不接受買賣協議終止,更咨詢法律意見,且不退還總值8300萬令吉的訂金。
但后來兩家公司達成共識,這場“不買不還訂金”的鬧劇也告一段落。

鍾廷森 外資助轉乾坤
★丹斯里鍾廷森
金獅集團(Lion Group)主席兼總執行長
鍾廷森去年忙著向政府提呈訴求,2012年不曉得會否忙著為集團尋求外資夥伴吸引全新注資,並脫售資產或展開整合活動以簡化架構,專注于鋼鐵製造及百貨商場業務?
為了美嘉鋼鐵(Megasteel)免受廉價進口熱軋鋼卷(HRC)的衝擊,他旗下的金獅集團屢屢懇求政府採取保護措施。
他率先要求政府調高調高熱軋鋼卷進口稅多達35%,卻遭主要由下游業者組成的大馬鋼鐵廠商公會(MISIF)反對,國際貿易及工業部也拒絕。
他后來再要求扁鋼產品的25%進口稅調低至10%,但迄今未獲貿工部表態。
為了讓美嘉鋼鐵“止血”,鍾廷森需要政府的支持,尤其正值全球經濟放緩,售價和需求已同步走低。
但若金獅集團成功爭取像中國寶鋼集團(Baosteel Group)般的強大外資夥伴,不論是注資或降低成本,相信都有助前者扭轉乾坤,但能否成事還得拭目以待。
對鍾廷森而言,稍微能讓人安慰的是百盛控股(PARKSON,5657,主要板貿易)旗下百盛商業(PRA)在新加坡上市,能為新興市場拓展計劃籌集資金。

林曉春 懷大志 展大計
★拿督林曉春
馬頓(MALTON,6181,主要板產業)主席和柏威年產托(PAVREIT,5212,主要板產托)股東
對一般投資者來說,林曉春低調得鮮為人知,但在企業界名氣卻相當高。
除了競投70億令吉的金馬士至新山的雙軌電動火車工程,另計劃重振檳城環球城中城計劃(PGCC),今年不懂能否如願嗎?
早在去年初,他據悉已和柔佛機構(Johor Corp)達成協議,準備向州政府臂膀機構收購白沙羅一帶的土地和建築物,卻因估值乃是3年前評估作罷。
他另在4月據稱和一家中國鐵道公司合作,準備競投70億令吉的金馬士至新山的雙軌電動火車工程,相信政府今年很快就會公開招標。
儘管掌控馬頓,他在其他掌權的公司卻未浮現為股東,包括Urusharta Cemerlang私人有限公司,后者在2010年9月以2億1000萬令吉收購武吉免登一塊地。
柏威年產托(PAVREIT,5212,主要板產托)去年上市發佈的招股書,卻把上述公司列為林曉春的公司。
據了解,他也透過代表持有怡觀資本(EQUINE,1147,主要板房產)股權,並計劃重新啟動胎死腹中的檳城環球城中城計劃。

郭鶴年 期待接班人
★郭鶴年
玻璃市種植(PPB,4065,主要板消費)大股東
今年將踏入89歲的郭鶴年去年罕見的接受中國央視《對話》專訪,才讓世人知道酒店業才是他的最愛,只是大家也很好奇,他的下一代接班人何時才浮出台面?
曾把媒體專訪形容為“家醜外揚”的他,去年和女兒郭惠光與小兒子郭孔華出席訪問,也讓這位出任私人助理的小兒子曝光。
郭鶴年在2009年脫售國內製糖業務,不少人感到可惜,卻不知道26歲創辦郭氏企業的他,在1963年幾乎因為白糖貿易破產。
這位大馬首富早在1984年就在中國投資,哪怕后來持股31.45%的豐益國際(Wilmar International)與中國國有的中國糧油食品集團(COFCO)為了澳洲白糖業務爭破頭。
他透過玻璃市種植持股18.%的豐益國際,也是中國食用油市場的最大供應商。
失去白糖業務后,玻璃市種植瞄準國內龐大的麵包市場,去年7月推出Massimo麵包,企圖打破由Gardenia和HIgh 5主導市場的格局。

首相兒讓小股民瘋狂
在2011年,或許你對“莫哈末納茲夫丁”這個名字不熟悉,但如果提起“首相兒子”、“豐昇工業”,你一定有印象這個讓小股民“瘋狂”的名字。
從另一個角度來看,豐昇工業(HARVEST,9342,主要板工業)股價大起大落,也讓投機的股民當頭棒喝,學會重新認識何謂基本面。
貴為首相拿督斯里納吉之子,莫哈末納茲夫丁的名字就像無往不利的“最佳信心保證”,讓豐昇工業這個原本10仙都不到的仙股,暴漲26倍到最高峰的2.13令吉。
豐昇工業的“得天獨厚”,也引領一陣的仙股漲潮。
納茲夫丁接受《中國報》獨家專訪曾無奈表示,對入股豐昇工業引起的流言蜚語深感無奈,並強調自己是從小生意做起。
他透露,將陸續注入豐昇工業的總值12億令吉工程,也全是私人工程,但對市場放大他是首相兒子的私人身分深感無奈。
一心追高的投機客讓豐昇工業多次遭馬證交所發出“異常交易活動”(UMA)質詢,更被列為指定股項。
或許真是人言可畏,納茲夫丁在11月22日閃辭董事一職,導致豐升工業開盤即猛挫42仙或30%,跌停板報98仙,淪為十大下跌股之首。
 如今豐升工業股價已從高峰回落,較最高的2.13令吉折半。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 中國報
Publish date: 31/12/11

分析:中国股市明年有戏吗?

分析:中国股市明年有戏吗?
英国《金融时报》 徐晓瑜 报道

就在中国各地的家庭周四晚上围坐在餐桌前庆祝冬至的时候,让我们想一些“暖人心”的事情吧:我们假想中国经济会实现软着陆,并且明年将继续以大约8%的速度增长——正如较为乐观的经济学家们所预期的那样。

假如他们是正确的,那你会拿自己的钱去买中国企业的股票吗?

它们今年实现的回报率并不那么出色。恒生中国企业指数(Hang Seng China Enterprises Index)——追踪在香港上市的中国内地企业的股价——自1月份以来已累计下跌23%,比法国CAC 40指数的表现还要糟糕。

另一方面,香港H股的股价目前看起来相当低廉。由于没有相应的限制,外国投资者对中国企业的大部分投资都在H股市场上进行。


里昂证券(CLSA)的郑名凯(Francis Cheung)等股票策略师表示,明年中国货币环境很可能依然趋紧,但某些板块可在这种环境中做到独善其身,因而在动荡市况下具有良好的防御性。

郑名凯说:“我们四周前进行了一次消费者调查。结果显示,人们的乐观程度令人惊讶,近70%的受访者都计划明年购买一部智能手机。”

2012年期间4G网络的逐渐铺开很可能会令电信板块获益。郑名凯钟爱的个股之一是中兴通讯(ZTE),该公司不仅制造智能手机,还向忙于升级系统的运营商们供应设备。

他还看好汽车板块。该板块的市盈率已跌至8倍左右,因为早先政府为鼓励购车而实行的刺激举措已经过期。以长城汽车(Great Wall Motors)为例,今年早些时候它的市盈率超过12倍,如今已跌至7倍。“我们对消费者的调查表明,汽车需求依然旺盛。此外有传言说,政府或将对汽车行业今后的发展提供进一步的扶持,”郑名凯说。

水泥生产商的股价看起来也很诱人。郑名凯说:“固定资产投资虽然放缓,但明年的增速仍有望达到22%左右。而且与钢铁行业的情况不同,水泥行业不存在产能过剩的问题。”

不过,郑名凯最钟爱的板块也许是互联网——这里指的不是在香港、而是在纳斯达克上市的互联网企业。他指出,新浪(Sina)的股价已自今年4月创下的历史高点下跌逾60%,但新浪股价并没有反映出其即时通讯网站“新浪微博”受到的广泛欢迎。他认为,在经济前景充满不确定性的情况下,互联网板块是不错的选择,因为它与宏观形势相对脱钩。

对于里昂证券认为H股明年将有充裕上行空间的看法,其他人也表示了赞同。比如,高盛(Goldman Sachs)的经济学家就预期,恒生中国企业指数明年的涨幅将超过20%。

不过,在你发出买入指令之前,记住一点:那些曾令股价承压的因素并没有消失——例如,欧元区危机,中国银行业的坏账规模,对房价崩盘的担心,以及对北京方面是否有能力引导经济实现软着陆的怀疑。

译者/何黎

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: FT中文网
Publish date: 23/12/11

2012关键:中国软着陆

2012关键:中国软着陆
高盛资产管理公司董事长 吉姆•奥尼尔 为英国《金融时报》撰稿

尽管金融界和实业界的目光仍然紧盯着欧元区政局的每一次转折起伏,但我认为,2012年世界面临的最大问题在于中国能否成功实现软着陆。

近几年来,中国对世界经济的影响已变得至关重要:2011年,中国国内生产总值(GDP)很可能增长了约1万亿美元,相当于意大利GDP的一半。自2008年全球信贷危机爆发以来,每过一年中国都有一个特定的主题:2009年是“防止后信贷危机时代的大幅下滑和衰退”;2010年是“控制扩张力度”;2011年是“防止通胀上升过快”。

2012年,中国的主题将是“想方设法确保实现软着陆”。面对出口走软和政府主导型投资萎缩带来的下行压力,中国经济若要增长8%以上,必须仰仗更强劲的个人消费。

世界其它地区愈发依赖对中国的出口,那些仍在承受2008年危机余痛的经济体可借对中国的出口克服这些困难。如果运气不错、决策又较为主动,中国将能够成功完成这一任务。否则,伴随着最高领导层换届,中国面对的局面将棘手得多,这进而又会加剧世界的苦痛。


为了取得成功,中国需要将通胀率降至3%至4%的区间,避免去年物价飙升的局面,推动物价回落。国内物价、尤其是食品价格更趋稳定,将使中国能够通过涨工资来促进个人收入的真实增长;若再辅以其它有针对性的政策,将帮助中国转型为由更强劲、更广泛国内消费增长驱动的经济体。

为了中国人自己以及我们所有人的利益,但愿他们能够取得成功。

译者/邢嵬

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: FT中文网
Publish date: 26/12/11

熊市中只赚不赔的唯一方法

熊市中只赚不赔的唯一方法
作者:来源:中国证券报·中证网  2011-11-15 10:14:00
熊市中只赚不赔的上上策-----就是坚决持币不动,等待大型底背离的到来。

  熊市中只赚不赔的上策-----就是大量持币,少量持有活跃个股高抛低吸。

  熊市中不赚不赔的中策-----就是从来不看也不做股票,也不打算做股票。

  熊市中不赚只赔的下策-----就是少量持币,大量持有活跃个股高抛低吸。

  熊市中不赚只赔的下下策-----就是不持币,大量持有高位套牢股票一路满仓。

  对于奉行上上策的人,我要说:“恭喜你啦,你会成为财神”;

  对于奉行下下策的人,我要说:“真不幸,神仙也救不了你”;

  对于奉行中策的人,我要说:“你不理财,财也不理你”;

  对于奉行下策的人,我要说:“这么做等同于聚众赌博,只是警-察不抓你”;

  对于奉行上策的人,我要说:“你行,这是熊市中只赚不赔的唯一方法”;

  那么如何制订操盘计划及如何实施呢?

  以资金10万元为例,在熊市中操作一支10元股为例说明:(为便于计算暂不计手续费及税)

  10万元在熊市中可使用部分不能超过30%,即3万元------这是纪律,必须坚守!!!

  先用5000元买入10元股票500股,持仓成本:5000元500股,10元/股。

  等待结果:1.买完即涨5%即10.5元,抛出200股。持仓成本:200股, 9.66元/股。

  2.买完即跌5%即9.5元,买进200股。持仓成本:700股,9.86元/股。

  下一步很关键: 如买完又涨到10元,抛出200股。持仓成本:500股,9.80元/股。大家注意:抛出200股是关键点,按此不断操作,可不断降低成本.

  3.买完又跌5%即9.0元,买进300股。持仓成本:1000股,9.6元/股。大家会发现,随着股价的下跌,你的股票仓位会越来越多,成本在不断降低. 如买完又涨到9.5元,抛出300股。大家注意:抛出300股是关键点,按此不断操作,可不断降低成本.

  4.买完又跌5%即8.5元,买进500股。持仓成本:1500股,9.25元/股。

  5.买完又跌5%即8.0元,买进500股。持仓成本:2000股,8.92元/股。

  6.买完又跌5%即7.5元,买进500股。持仓成本:2500股,8.64元/股。

  7.买完又跌5%即7.0元,买进500股。持仓成本:3000股,8.36元/股。

  8.买完又跌5%即6.5元,买进500股。持仓成本:3500股,8.10元/股。

  9.买完又跌5%即6.0元,买进500股。持仓成本:4000股,7.84元/股。

  此时你会发现,你的30%资金建仓完毕,成本比市场当前价高30%左右,这是一路下跌一路小幅建仓的情况.不算每次加仓反弹时抛出的成本.

  下一步如何,当你手中的股票比你买的第一笔价格下跌50%后,你剩下的70%的资金就可以分三次入场了,即每次跌的幅度就是你建仓的百分比,如再跌10%,加仓10%,….再跌50%,加仓50%,你会发现, 当你手中的股票比你买的第一笔价格下跌100%后,你还有剩下的20%的资金.

  我就不相信,它能从10元头也不回的跌到3元.有人会问,它后来又跌到2元,你那时就用剩下的20%的资金在2元满仓买进.

  任何个股跌了80%,离反转也就不远了,只要它不是退市的股,捂住,牛市来个赚几倍不是问题.

  最后提醒大家的是,你一开始的买入价不能是此股票的大头部.

  这就是要向新手介绍的仓位及成本控制,严格按此操作,熊市中不赚也难。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 中证网
Publish date: 15/11/11

Bank of America set to finish last for the year

Business Times - 31 Dec 2011


Bank of America set to finish last for the year

Stock is on track to be the year's worst performer in the DJIA, down 59% for the year

(New York)

BANK of America is on track to be this year's worst performer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average as concern about mounting mortgage losses and a global economic slowdown weighed on the second-biggest US lender.

The 59 per cent decline through yesterday erased almost US$80 billion of shareholder value at Charlotte, North Carolina- based BOA. It's the firm's largest drop since a 66 per cent plunge in 2008, when a US bailout staved off a collapse. The bank probably will also end 2011 last in the Standard & Poor's 500 Financials Index and the KBW Bank Index.

'What you have is like a three-ring circus, and in all the rings for Bank of America, the show isn't any good,' said Greg Donaldson, chairman of Evansville, Indiana-based Donaldson Capital Management LLC, which oversees US$500 million including BOA shares. He cited new regulations, mounting costs of bad loans and a lack of confidence in management. 'You just got one surprise after another this year,' Mr Donaldson said.

Chief executive officer Brian T Moynihan, 52, told staff in a year-end progress report last week that his effort to boost the company's value 'is not yet translating into returns for our shareholders'. Mr Moynihan said he has prepared for turmoil ahead by selling assets, reducing mortgage and credit-card loans and pledging to cut annual costs by US$5 billion, including about 30,000 job cuts.

Some of BOA's biggest peers also made the list of laggards, with Citigroup, the third-biggest US bank by assets, dropping 43 per cent. JPMorgan Chase & Co, the largest lender, slid 21 per cent. American International Group, the insurer owned mostly by the US after its near-collapse in 2008, fell 52 per cent for the second-worst showing in the S&P Financials, and Goldman Sachs Group lost 46 per cent.

Mr Moynihan is trying to reverse a stock decline that began soon after he replaced Kenneth D Lewis at the end of 2009, when the bank also repaid US$45 billion of US bailout funds.

The company's shares, which reached US$19.48 in April 2010, closed at US$5.46 yesterday as settlements with mortgage-bond investors and insurers failed to stanch losses tied to the 2008 takeover of subprime lender Countrywide Financial Corp.

The status of an US$8.5 billion accord resolving some claims from mortgage-bond buyers including BlackRock and Pacific Investment Management Co is being contested by outside investors and may be tied up in courts through 2012. Meanwhile, US-owned mortgage firm Fannie Mae has stepped up demands that BOA repurchase defective loans. 'Bank of America is too big to fail, but I'm not sure I'd want to be an equity holder,' said Steven Persky, CEO of Los Angeles-based Dalton Investments.

A US$5 billion investment by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway announced in August only temporarily arrested a slide triggered that month after markets were roiled by Standard & Poor's downgrade of US government debt.

BOA had about US$363 billion of cash as of Sept 30, enough to fund operations for two years without going to the markets. 'The market has given up on Moynihan, given up on their story,' Mr Donaldson said. 'I may start buying Bank of America shares soon. It's priced as if it's going out of business, and it's not going out of business.' -- Bloomberg




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date: 31/12/11

PCRT seals lease deal with Shanghai Summit

Business Times - 31 Dec 2011


PCRT seals lease deal with Shanghai Summit

Contract value for mall lease totals 94.1m yuan over 2.5 years

By MINDY TAN

MAINBOARD-LISTED Perennial China Retail Trust (PCRT) said yesterday that it has leased out parts of its Shenyang Longemont Shopping Mall to Shanghai Summit Group for a total contract value of 94.1 million yuan (S$19.2 million).

The lease agreements cover a total of 57,028 square metres of retail space at Shenyang Longemont Shopping Mall, and will be leased for the purposes of operating an indoor rooftop theme park, indoor ice-skating rink, a supermarket, a Yes Sir Coffee and several other food and beverage outlets.

The lease agreements are for two-and-a-half years, until June 30, 2014, with renewal at the lessor's option and subject to terms and conditions to be agreed by both parties.

PCRT, which was listed here in June this year, owns half of the mall.

According to PCRT's trustee- manager, Perennial China Retail Trust Management, the lease agreements and forward renewal terms with Summit will ensure long-term sustainable and stable income for the trust.

The lease agreement with respect to the indoor rooftop theme park and indoor ice skating rink is for a monthly rent of 1.15 million yuan and 132,632 yuan respectively, or 12 per cent of the month's gross turnover, whichever is higher.

The lease agreement for the supermarket is for a monthly rent of 900,409 yuan or 4 per cent of the month's gross turnover, whichever is higher.

The agreement for the F&B outlets is 888,023 yuan per month, from Dec 29, 2011 to June 30, 2013. From July 1, 2013 to June 30, 2014, a monthly rent of 947,586 yuan will be charged. Turnover rent is pegged at 13 per cent.

The lease agreement for Yes Sir Coffee is for a monthly rent of 55,967 yuan or turnover rent at the rate of 15 per cent, whichever is higher.

PCRT closed trading yesterday at 47.5 cents.




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date: 31/12/11

Dismal end to year for stocks; property sector badly bruised

Published December 31, 2011
Dismal end to year for stocks; property sector badly bruised
CapitaLand, Keppel Land lose 40-50% of market cap; banks too come under pressure

By JAMIE LEE

IT was not a pretty picture for stocks across most sectors but especially nasty bruises showed up on the property scene.

The government earlier this month stunned the market by imposing an additional buyer's stamp duty of 10 per cent on foreigner home purchases, dealing a blow to property developers which were already bracing for some softening in demand.

Investors also took flight amid caution over property developers' exposure to China as Beijing intervened to cool down the market.

Besides tightening bank lending, the Chinese government has capped the number of mortgages for each individual bank borrower, lifted the downpayments for mortgages to as much as 40 per cent, and imposed property taxes in Shanghai and Chongqing that will also be implemented in other cities next year.

CapitaLand and Keppel Land stand as the two developers with the largest Chinese exposure.

CapitaLand lost $6.37 billion, or 40 per cent of its market capitalisation over the year. Its market cap on the last day of trading in 2011 was $9.44 billion.

Keppel Land - among the top 10 losers in terms of losses to its share price in absolute value - saw its market value plunge 53 per cent, or $3.65 billion, to $3.31 billion.

City Developments closed the year with a 29 per cent drop in market value to $8.09 billion, while China luxury real estate developer Yanlord Land lost 43 per cent of its market value and ended with $1.85 billion.
Banks, too, experienced some selling pressure, partly due to cooling measures imposed on the property market and their impact on home loans. Investors are worried that with interest rates staying persistently low, net interest margins for lenders are expected to stay depressed.

The market cap of DBS Group Holdings - ranked the sixth-largest company in Singapore by market value - dropped 18 per cent from last year to end at $27.1 billion, while that of OCBC, the seventh-largest company here, fell 18 per cent to $26.9 billion.

UOB finished 2011 with a market value of $24.3 billion, down 15 per cent. It was ranked eighth.

In a strategy report, DMG & Partners Securities advised investors to be prepared for market weakness in the first half of next year, but it expects a 15 per cent upside to the benchmark index if eurozone debt woes clear up in the latter part of the year.

'We recommend that clients stay defensive currently,' it said, putting bullish calls on land transport stocks such as ComfortDelgro.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date: 31/12/11

Bleak 2011 sees $130b bleed away from market

Published December 31, 2011
Bleak 2011 sees $130b bleed away from market
But not all counters are haemorrhaging - 4 index stocks are in the black and SPDR Gold Shares, the top gainer, is up 21%

By JAMIE LEE

IN a year battered by financial instability in the eurozone, and social unrest, uprisings and natural calamities elsewhere, the Singapore market ended trading yesterday with a 15.4 per cent drop in value.

The over 750 Singapore-listed companies posted a combined market capitalisation of $716 billion at the end of trading, down from $846 billion at the end of 2010 - a shrinkage of $130 billion.

The year-end market value just brushed past the year's lowest level of $714 billion in September. The Straits Times Index (STI) closed at 2,646.35 points yesterday, down 17 per cent from a year ago.


In dollar terms, the top gainer was SPDR Gold Shares, which surged to US$165.99 per share at year-end, up 21 per cent or US$28.49 from US$137.50 apiece in 2010. Gold - the darling of 2011 - returned close to 10 per cent to investors this year, though underperforming the US 10-year Treasuries, which posted gains of more than 15 per cent.


Another top performer was StarHub, one of just four index stocks that gained in market value this year. Shares of the telco firm gained 28 cents each, or 11 per cent, to finish with $2.91 apiece, and a market value of $5.63 billion, as investors piled in on hopes of rich dividends.


The top loser of the year in dollar terms was STX Pan Ocean. The offshore vessel builder ended at $6.74 yesterday, losing $6.38 or nearly half its share-price value, compared to $13.12 at end-2010.
It swung deeply into the red for the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2011, making losses of US$37.43 million compared to a net profit of US$47.71 million a year ago. 


Also hammered was City Developments, which saw a fierce slew of bearish calls from analysts after the government made a surprise move to slap an additional, and hefty, stamp duty on foreigners buying private properties. Shares of the property developer closed the year at $8.90, down $3.66 or 29 per cent, compared to $12.56 at end-2010.
In percentage terms, the top gainer was Chinese logistics provider Sky One Holdings. Top loser was Style Merchants, a seller of women's fashion products in China.


Besides StarHub, three other index stocks out of the 30 gained this year: SingTel, which is still ranked the largest Singapore company by market cap, Jardine Matheson and Jardine Strategic.


Fraser & Neave (F&N) also came out well, registering a small 2.5 per cent drop in market value to finish with $8.78 billion in a year when it made a landmark move to end its ties with the Coca-Cola Company - a 75-year partnership that was deemed restrictive to F&N.


Previously, F&N produced, bottled and sold Coca-Cola's drinks in Malaysia, while Coca-Cola did likewise for F&N in Singapore. But as a result, F&N could not sell its soft drinks outside of Singapore and Malaysia, meaning that it could not push out its products such as 100Plus and Seasons drinks into new markets until now - a move that analysts expect to boost margins.


Noble Group, Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) and CapitaMalls Asia had over 40 per cent of their market value wiped out this year and dropped several positions in market-value terms.
The late buying into Noble Group this month - ignited by the A$2.1 billion (S$2.77 billion) cash and stock merger between its Australia-listed subsidiary Gloucester Coal and China's Yanzhou Coal Mining Co Ltd - failed to heal earlier wounds, with $5.91 billion, or 45 per cent of its market value, bled away.


The stock took a massive hit after the commodities firm reported a shock loss in its third quarter - its first quarterly loss in 14 years - and a day after, the surprise departure of the group's chief executive Ricardo Leiman, who was tipped as a possible successor to founder and chairman Richard Elman.


Shipping line NOL - which lost $2.73 billion in market value, or 48 per cent compared to the previous year - is expected to post a full-year loss due to depressed freight rates and easing trade growth. This comes amid a bulging oversupply of ships that should be available over the next two years, as well as the pullback in demand given the economic slowdown in the West.


This month, NOL said it would team up with five other shipping lines to create a tight alliance for the lucrative Far East-Europe trade lanes that is aimed at improving service coverage in Asia-Europe market. It is also a sure signal that competitors are looking to each other for survival rather than hankering over market share, for now.


The market value of CapitaMalls Asia plunged 42 per cent - or down $3.14 billion - to stand at $4.39 billion at the end of 2011.


The stock has severely underperformed since its listing in November 2009, despite several bullish calls by analysts. In late August, some also argued that the overhang should be lifted after a former substantial shareholder, Capital Group, was said to have stopped offloading its shares.


But others also point to CapitaMalls Asia's significant exposure to China, which could be keeping investors at bay.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date: 31/12/11

股神与抄底:模糊正确远胜于精确错误

股神与抄底:模糊正确远胜于精确错误
作者:来源:中国证券报·中证网  2011-12-29 09:33:00

每次市场大跌,就有许多投资者开始热议“抄底”,而且这似乎总是大部分投资者孜孜以求的美事。其实许多投资者之所以热衷于“抄底”,往往存在一个想当然的逻辑,即只要能在底部买、顶部卖就可以战胜市场,获得最佳投资绩效。

  可惜的是,但凡“大底”真正出现的时候,却极少有人能真正猜中并热烈拥抱它。事实上,依靠投资而荣登世界首富的巴菲特,就是一个从不喜欢刻意“猜底”和“抄底”的人。

  巴菲特说过这样一句意味深长的话:“模糊的正确远胜于精确的错误。”每一次重大危机中,当巴菲特买入时,刻意寻底的市场经常都会讥笑他“买高了”或“被套了”。但他从不会为此气馁沮丧而始终坚持自己的判断,因为他知道精确的底部根本无法预测得出,他所选择的是一个“模糊的正确”,而大部分人却自作聪明地选择了“精确的错误”。

  从具体操作上讲,巴菲特并不善于“抄底”,甚至常常属于一买入即被“套牢”一族。统计数据显示,巴菲特所投资的股票有高达90%以上都是刚买入就遭遇被套,即便是被世人公认最成功的对可口可乐公司的投资,巴菲特当初在买入后不久也被套牢了30%。又比如,巴菲特1973年刚开始买进华盛顿邮报这只股票时,美国经济低迷,道指下跌了40%,华尔街的投资家们认为买入的风险太大。事实上,华盛顿邮报的股价两年后才回到巴菲特的成本价。可是这有什么要紧呢,华盛顿邮报后来同样让巴菲特大赚特赚,他一直持有到现在。

  综合以上几例,这样耗时长久经常被套的“操盘”业绩,或许在A股市场某些快速进出的投资者看来可笑之极。但问题是,为何在习惯追求抄底的投资者看来操盘水平如此之差的一个人,最终却成为全球市场独一无二的“股神”呢?究其根源,巴菲特具有解读和把握市场长期趋势的能力。虽然他从来无法准确获知底部究竟何在,但是他往往能够把握到市场下降的趋势是否已经开始改变,之后就逐步开始进行长期的“买入并持有”,耐心等待反转上升趋势的来临。

  市场的短期风云变幻莫测,底部在哪里,也许只有上帝知道。“股神”不抄底,巴菲特只追求模糊的正确而拒绝精确的错误,依靠长期持有来赢得胜利。长期投资者完全没有必要在抄底问题上投入过多的时间精力,只要你能控制好自己的心理情绪,敢于在相对底部买入并坚持长期持有,就有希望在未来获得合理的回报。成功的股票投资如此,基金亦然。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 中证网
Publish date: 29/12/11

解码财商 2011 成长为王之寻找赚钱好股票 111208



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 优酷视频
Publish date:08/12/11

谢国忠预言2012称楼市泡沫必破 股市已见底

谢国忠预言2012称楼市泡沫必破 股市已见底
http://msn.finance.sina.com.cn 2011-12-30 18:21 来源: 宁夏卫视《解码财商》


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: MSN中国
Publish date: 30/12/11

解码财商:为什么赚钱的不是散户

解码财商:为什么赚钱的不是散户
http://www.sina.com.cn/ 2011年12月29日18:21 宁夏卫视《解码财商》

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 新浪视频
Publish date: 29/12/11

《投资银行的故事》高盛逼近 围剿欧洲 111228



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 优酷视频
Publish date: 28/12/11

《投資學堂》甚麼是市盈率?




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date:23/08/10

财富非常道:策略2012 龙年的十大预言

财富非常道20111227:策略2012 龙年的十大预言


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 土豆网
Publish date: 27/12/11

财富非常道:把脉2012 A股能否绝境逢生?

财富非常道20111223:把脉2012 A股能否绝境逢生?



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 土豆网
Publish date: 23/12/11

财富非常道:策略2012 防守反击 明年稳健做反弹

财富非常道20111221:策略2012 防守反击 明年稳健做反弹



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 土豆网
Publish date: 21/12/11

财富非常道: 2012债券牛市有钱赚

财富非常道20111220:2012债券牛市有钱赚



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 土豆网
Publish date: 19/12/11

财富非常道:策略2012 摸经济龙脉 说证券龙市

财富非常道20111226:策略2012 摸经济龙脉 说证券龙市


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 土豆网
Publish date: 26/12/11

财富非常道:策略2012 摸着石头过河

财富非常道20111228:策略2012 摸着石头过河


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 土豆网
Publish date: 28/12/11

财富非常道:策略2012 熬在当下 赢在年初 逃在年中

财富非常道20111219:策略2012 熬在当下 赢在年初 逃在年中




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 土豆网
Publish date: 19/12/11

新财富非常道:2012A股或将上演潜龙升天

新财富非常道:2012A股或将上演潜龙升天
http://www.sina.com.cn/ 2011年12月30日09:13 内蒙古卫视《新财富非常道》


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 新浪视频
Publish date: 30/12/11

财富非常道:策略2012 明年市场呈杯具

财富非常道20111216:策略2012 明年市场呈杯具



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 土豆网
Publish date: 16/12/11

2011馬股封關總檢‧10大漲幅股‧雀巢豐盛WA稱王







Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts:星洲日報
 Publish date: 31/12/11

2011馬股封關總檢‧美元漲勢逼人‧馬幣全年貶3%





Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts:星洲日報
 Publish date: 31/12/11

2011馬股封關總檢閱‧10大下跌股‧馬太平洋恒生指數CE跌最慘





Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 星洲日報
 Publish date: 31/12/11

2011馬股封關總檢閱‧10大熱門股‧加拉布乃最熱




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 星洲日報
 Publish date: 31/12/11

曾淵滄專欄 2011.12.16

曾渊沧博士专栏
文: 曾渊沧博士 2011年12月16日 曾渊沧博士专栏
今年8月初,信贷评级机构标准普尔将美国的主权评级由AAA降至AA+,引起金融界大地震,股市狂跌。12月5日,在西方国家股市收市后,标准普尔一口气将欧元区15个国家的主权评级列为负面观察名单。换言之,3个月后可能降级,有些更可能一降两级,由于宣布时欧美股市已收市,首当其冲的就是亚太区股市。亚太区投资者认为,这是一个深水炸弹,炸出万丈巨浪。12月6日,亚太区股市除深圳外,全部皆跌。

哪里知道,美国投资者并不是这么想,美国的投资者把标准普尔的行动视为逼宫,逼欧盟在12月9日的会议上,能讨论出一个拯救欧债危机的方案。12月6日美股大升。今年8月,美国主权评级被降一级时,不少分析认为这是标准普尔向美国共和、民主两党施加压力的行动,要求两党尽快谈出一个彼此妥协的财政预算案。

标准普尔会不会在3个月后将欧元区国家主权评级降级?机会是相当大的,可以无限量印钞票来还债的美国都已经被降级,而至12月5日仍然吵吵闹闹,得不出一个大家皆同意的拯救欧债方案的欧元区国家,就更应该降级了。

欧盟峰会结束,这是一个大摊牌的会议。过去几年,如何处理欧债危机有两个极端建议,一是德国坚持的,要求欧元区政府交出部份财政自主权,这样德国才愿意出手救欧债,二是逼欧洲央行印钞救欧债。

12月9日结束的欧盟峰会可以说是德国的大胜利,不但欧元区17国全部同意签订这个新的条约,交出部份财政自主权以取得全球债主的信心,更吸引了9个非欧元区政府也同意签订这个新协议,欧盟27国中唯一不签新协议的是英国。

本来,德国是要求改变欧盟条约,但是改变欧盟条约得所有27国政府皆同意才行,现在英国不签,就由26国自行签新条约,英国不签的后果是将来英国自生自灭。近日英国出现非常大规模的公务员罢工,学校、机场全出了问题。老百姓不会支持削减福利的政策,政府要减缩开支谈何容易。英国已开始推量化宽松,印钞票,一旦将来出现英镑危机,欧盟不会出手相救,唯一解救英国的是同文同种的美国。长期以来,英国因为不加入欧元区,在欧盟中只能当配角,英国人的情意结是到底英国应该融入地理位置接近的欧洲?还是融入同文同种的美国?

欧盟26国签了新条约,说明这26国将来需要集体节约开支,这对中国、香港、 新加坡而言不是好事,出口肯定会放缓,甚至倒退。幸好,中国政府已经推行了宏观调控超过一年,货币政策有放宽的空间。面对欧盟紧缩经济的将来,我相信中国政府必然会逐渐放宽宏观调控,一步步的微调。欧元区财长会议也于日前决定本月中旬派发80亿欧元的贷款给希腊。希腊收了80亿欧元后会依照之前的承诺大幅削减福利吗?这是大家应该留意的。

中国、香港、新加坡目前的经济依然不错,市面繁华,旅客数目不断创新高,失业率低。香港特区政府及新加坡政府都向全民派钱,再加上香港最低工资的推行,使到部份低薪者获得相当幅度的加薪。中国及新加坡各行各业加薪幅度也相当大,从市面的繁荣景象,你很难想像目前的股市正处于非常低迷的水平。

明年的经济情况很可能比今年差,因为欧美消费力在减弱中,工资增加所带来的压力在明年就会显示出来。今年市面繁荣,加工资所带来的成本上升问题能为企业所吸纳,企业纯利下跌但是仍有利润。但是,当明年经济下滑,如果成本依然高涨而无法转嫁给消费者,最后唯一的解决方法是节省成本,裁员可能是最直接的做法。

近日沪综指大跌至近3年来最低点,11月30日人民银行宣布降低银行存款准备金率0.5个百分点,无法刺激投资者的信心。接下来一连串经济数据皆不理想,最新的进出口增速回落,使到股市投资者担心经济增长真的放缓,不少人在大谈中国经济硬着陆了。中国政府除了11月30日降低银行存款准备金率外,高官们讲话的基调,依然没有丝毫放宽宏观调控的语气。我很明白中国高官们讲话的心态,最高领导人一日不表态,谁也不敢乱讲话。

中共中央正在开工作会议,为明年经济政策定调。欧美消费差,中国出口有问题,于是投资者就憧憬中央会推动内需来补外销的萎缩。这使一些消费股股价表现得不错。不过,大家得留意,内需消费能不能提高,与出口仍是息息相关,因为出口推动制造业,制造业聘用大量劳工;出口不振,制造业也不振,工人会失业,薪水难上调,如何增加消费?因此,大家不相信中国政府可以轻易通过推动内需来补助外销的滑落。

2008年底,中国政府曾经以推动内需来补外销的空缺,不过,当时是非常时刻,不得不下重药,结果换来严重的通胀。现在好不容易才压住通胀,我相信中国政府不会再下重药推动内需。今后不论是投资于内需消费股或其他股份,第一原则依然是只买便宜货,只宜低吸,不宜高追,而且要明白股市永远会出现低处未算低的现象,低吸之后不要期望股价马上回升,该耐心地持有。

近几天,人民币贬值之事引起多家传媒热烈报道,市场已不再一面倒认为人民币只升不跌。是的,过去几天人民币的确一连数天皆跌停板。不过,不要被跌停板这个字眼吓坏,中国政府允许人民币的升跌幅度非常小,跌一点点或升一点点就会升停板或跌停板。至今,人民币仍不能自由兑换,汇率也不是自由浮动,一切皆在中国政府的掌控中。

有趣的是,上月亚太经合会议时,奥巴马刚刚大大声地说人民币应该更快更大幅度的升值。美国参议院更已通过立法要求人民币升值,中国政府却反其道而行,不但不听话让人民币升值,更让人民币贬值,是翅膀硬了,打算与美国对着干?如果中国政府能顶住美国政府的压力,让人民币贬值再贬值,这不是坏事。从2005年至今,人民币兑美元的升值幅度已经超过3成,这肯定压低了中国产品的出口竞争力,当然,专做中国旅客生意的零售商,就不欢迎人民币贬值啦。

我相信,传媒之所以会制造出一种香港政府打算放宽打压房地产措施的气氛,完全是传媒在访问与报道时的一种取巧,记者把“如果房地产价格再大幅下跌”这句前提轻轻带过,只着力报道下一句,即“政府会检讨打压房地产措施”。于是,市场误以为香港政府改变了政策。

新加坡的情况与香港相似。新加坡政府在今年年初也推出特别印花税,以针对短期炒作的炒家,同样收效不大。12月7日,新加坡政府推出新的更严厉的打压楼价措施,要求所有海外买家及公司买家付额外的10%印花税。新加坡原本的印花税是3%,再加10%,达到13%,负担绝对不轻,此举几乎可以赶尽新的海外买家。除了新加坡仍在下重药,今年11月30日,中国人民银行宣布降低银行存款准备金率0.5%,但中央财经官员仍然说打压楼市措施不会放宽。香港怎么可能取消打压楼价的措施?

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 股市资讯
Publish date:16/12/11

投资者希望收到的圣诞礼物是 能解决欧洲债务危机的救援配套

投资者希望收到的圣诞礼物是 能解决欧洲债务危机的救援配套
文: 颜子伟 (译:麦美莹) 2011年12月16日 展望
这两个星期,市场充满期待,因为欧盟领袖在布鲁塞尔举行峰会。一如预期,差不多每天都有新的谣传浮现,说峰会将带来新的方案,但这些谣传马上便不攻自破。

虽然市场动荡,但交投并不活跃,而淡静的交投让股市更摇摆不定,因为大部分的投资者选择离场。道琼斯工商指数在11月份的大部分时间表现欠佳,然后在月尾飙升了490点。它尝试力保不失,但当欧洲领袖们选择逐步来慢慢解决他们的问题,道指终于在获利回吐下失守。

投资者期待欧洲的债务危机能够有一些“重炮”可以一次过把问题解决,欧洲领袖们则尝试努力把投资者的过高期望软化。

欧洲领袖们没有拿出重炮,但他们同意从他们的央行中借出约2,000亿欧元给欧洲央行,为提高救援配套的基金。再者,17个欧元区的国家加上另外9个非欧元区的国家同意组成一个财政联盟,后者将会整合所有签署协议的国家的财政政策,目的是在税务及开支等决定上能够统一。

这是解决欧洲问题的一个长远方案,旨在避免会员国在未来会过度开支,但它对目前的情况帮助不大,除了是提高投资者对欧洲的信心。

投资者可能会觉得很泄气,因为他们不明白欧洲的问题是源于在财政执行上的不负责任,因此,解决问题的最好方法是从根本及长远来医治,总好过在短期内放“重炮”,然后让欧盟内的不负责任财政行为持续下去。或许投资者习惯于美国在过去及现在解决危机的方式,它最喜欢就是在印刷机前印更多的钞票来解决危机。

德国的忧虑
虽然我们可以说布鲁塞尔的欧洲峰会有点令人失望,尤其是当英国拒绝参与财政联盟,但对德国来说可算是打了一场胜仗,因为它取得26个国家参与这个财政联盟。德国一直以来拒绝印刷更多钞票,并在这次危机中负起很大的责任。

随着“大家长”(欧洲央行)拒绝印更多的钞票来救他的挥霍儿子,身为大哥的德国 – 兄弟中最富有的一个 – 就被要求负起责任,去救济他那些挥霍无度的兄弟,因为他们现在已经破产了。

这位比较富有及聪明的大哥有足够的资源来挽救局面,但他明白到他不可以有勇无谋地把钱借出去,然后在未来又重复地面对同样的问题。怕得要死的弟弟们全部决定由大哥全权掌控财政,控制每个家庭的收入和支出。

这是德国一直在思考的问题,因为如果它的介入拯救了众人却伤害到自己,这不就等同于政治和经济自杀。一旦经济联盟组成后,德国就有信心慢慢地但更确定地在明年开始有更多行动。

投资者不满
当各大主要央行注入更多流动资金入金融系统后,道指带头上升了490点,但这个心理效应在12月9日消失了,因为欧洲峰会没有带给投资者预期的结果。因此,获利回吐开始出现,而道指随即跌破12,000点的心理关口,尽管美国最新的经济及就业数据令人鼓舞。

另外,中国政府一方面决心继续抑制不断攀升的楼价,但却把存款准备金率调低。它的举动令市场认为有关当局或会开始放松银根,这可能会令产业发展商受惠,因为他们正面对资金短缺的问题。

从另一个角度来看最新的政策,中国政府明白到它不可以再紧缩银根,因为经济正在放缓,而某些行业及在某些地区的企业正面对困难。这次调低存款准备金率很可能只是一小步,而在2012年可能会有更多的放松行动,但正如我之前在《股市资讯》新加坡版提到,放松政策可能只会针对某些领域而不是全面性执行。

再者,在刚刚对抗完通胀后,中国政府不想投资者过分乐观,期望更多的放松政策将会出炉。如果有关当局过早透露端倪,这将只会引来更多的投机性买卖,并对保持低通胀没有好处。

中国政府对产业领域的“强硬”态度及它对是否会继续放松银根没有透露半点提示,令上海股市兵败如山倒,而它已经受到经济即将放缓的影响。上海综合指数从一个月前的2,529点下跌至2,200点之下,在一个月内足足掉了300点或13%!

恒生指数及海峡时报指数也受到拖累,因为它们容易受到中国及美国市场波动的影响。虽然美国市场为我们注入一点信心,但受到中国和香港市场的拖累,海指跌穿了2,700点。

截至12月15日,海指跌破了在2,650-2,680点的支持位,并开始在寻找新的支持位,大概可能在2,605点及接下来的2,521点。令人欣慰的是亚洲市场似乎出现超卖,并会借助轻微的推动而回弹。但由于还有两个星期便告别2011年,这个情况发生的机会可能不大。

虽然圣诞老人还未有送出礼物,投资者期待礼物很快便会送到。相信投资者希望收到的圣诞礼物是能解决欧洲债务危机的救援配套。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 股市资讯
Publish date:16/12/11

在严峻的前景中,所有新加坡房地产投资信托都会遇上同样困难?

在严峻的前景中,所有新加坡房地产投资信托都会遇上同样困难?
文: 李金婷 (译:朱爱伦) 2011年12月16日 展望
物流REIT前景备受看好

新加坡的房地产投资信托(S-REIT)在经济不稳定的时期往往被视为避风港,但它们也无法幸免于全球经济放缓所带来的影响。富时海峡时报房地产投资信托(FTSE ST REITs)分类指数也确实在今年初至12月13日下滑了26.8%至540.13点。

与此同时,新加坡的2012年国内生产总值(GDP)增长预测下调令市场更恐慌,因本地业主更难在短期内调高租金和签署新租约。多个通过举债来进行收购的S-REIT也可能面对利息偿还比率(interest coverage ratio)提高的风险。

然而,有些REIT却在前景不明朗的情况下计划加强它们的市场地位。其中值得注意的是涉足于工业产业的腾飞房产信托(Ascendas REIT),它以1亿7,900万元完成收购两个位于新加坡的资产。另外,拥有商产组合的K信托亚洲(K-REIT Asia)也以20亿元收购了海洋金融中心(Ocean Financial Centre)的87.5%股权。两家公司的行动均显示它们对工业产业及商产领域的信心。

穆迪投资服务(Moody’s Investors Service)也持相同看法,它认为S-REIT的前景依旧持稳。穆迪进一步强调,S-REIT资金雄厚,融资记录良好,即使严峻的情况持续下去,预料它们也能安然渡过难关。

工业REIT名列前茅

仲量联行(Jones Lang LaSalle)在一份报告中表示,新加坡正进入一个“租金调整期”,并料甲级办公楼的平均租金将在4Q11下降约4%至每平方英尺6美元。随着企业搁置拓展计划,并可能裁员,租户对办公楼面的需求料将适度下降。

尽管经济放缓,但预期零售及款待业REIT在未来季度仍取得盈利增长,由于零售业的前景大好及旅游业越来越兴旺。值得留意的是,商业讯息公司BMI的新加坡零售报告预测,总零售额将从2011年的442亿元预估增加至2015年的511亿元。

无论如何,工业REIT依旧是我们心目中的至爱,它们的平均股息获益率是所有REIT分领域中最高的。华侨银行(OCBC)给予工业REIT‘加码’评级,因为所有工业REIT均在截至2011年9月30日的财政期间录得令人鼓舞的业绩。

尤为显著的是,工业REIT的总体租用率介于94.5-100%的高位(2Q11为94.3-100%),显示工业楼面租赁市场坚韧。此外,工业REIT截至2011年9月30日的总杠杆比率为健康的23.8-41.3%,在与40-45%的长期最佳平均杠杆目标相比下显得十分理想。

查看图片


物流空间带来更大回报?

全球化及外包风潮盛行促成对综合供应链的需求,并令市场对亚洲物流服务的需求殷切,因而推动本区域物流/仓存业的增长。商业资讯公司Datamonitor预测,亚太区物流市场的表现将会提高,并预期后者在2008-2013年的五年年复合增长率为10.1%,从而令物流业在2013年底的市值增至4,715亿元。鉴于前景乐观,难怪涉足于物流/仓存业务的工业REIT比其他同行更胜一筹,并为投资者带来数一数二的股息获益率(请参阅列表1)。

星展唯高达(DBS Vickers)也指出,短期而言,物流/仓存服务是最坚韧的业务,因为它受到政府高度的规划及管制,因此其租金波动不大,表现主要取决于国家的环球贸易及优秀行业。

物流空间的租约较长也让物流/仓存工业REIT避免受到盈利不稳定的影响,因为其加权平均租期(WALE)一般上约为五年或以上,反观普通工业REIT的WALE则约为三到五年。即使经济放缓,长期租约也能确保稳定的收入。

值得留意的股只

截至2011年9月30日,凯诗物流信托(Cache Logistics Trust)及丰树物流信托(MapleTree Logistics Trust)均录得最长的加权平均租期(WALE)(请参阅列表1)。不可忽视的是,星展唯高达都给予这两家以物流/仓存业务为主的工业REIT‘买入’评级,目标价分别为1.11元和1.07元。

凯诗是于2010年4月12日在新交所挂牌上市,其自挂牌以来的每单位总派息季比一直节节上升。它在最近的第三季度录得可分配收入年比增长8.6%,并比其招股书内所示的预估数字高出8%。强劲的盈利表现也归功于组合内的货仓年龄尚轻(平均年龄为3.1年)及全面出租予各行各业。凯诗拟扩大组合,并着眼于亚太区新兴市场内的商机。

另一方面,在稳健的租用率下,丰树物流在3Q11录得6%的自然增长,其现有组合也更新了高达12%的租约。它也预期其香港营运的表现将因租金可能得以上调而提高,因为一些业主把它们的工业产业转换为办公楼或零售空间导致工业产业的供应将会紧缩。此外,公司的债务组合改善,其偿债期在安排再融资后已延长至3.7年。

需求殷切,供应遇瓶颈

与此同时,市区重建局(URA)的最新数据显示,工业产业的供应料将增加9%,其中约70%将在2012-13年期间完工。尽管如此,未来的供应依旧有限,因为URA表示,大部份新产业已获预租承诺,并且是基于有需求才建设的。世邦魏理仕(CB Richard Ellis)的3Q11新加坡市场观察报告显示,市场对新加坡货仓的需求在3Q11趋稳,因为很多公司以较高租金更新租约。全岛的平均月租季比提高2.9%。

此外,本地制造业(尤其是生物医药制造业)的需求料将增加,因为贸工部表示,本地制造业在第三季度取得13.2%的年比增长,尽管GDP增长预期放缓。鉴于未来两年的需求仍十分殷切,新加坡及亚洲物流领域将有望蓬勃发展,尤其是在本地工业REIT早已蓄势待发及在区域建立了稳固基础的情况下。

理智投资

虽然物流产业的短期前景向好,加上REIT的防御型本质有助减轻不同行业所带来的市场风险,但这并不表示REIT可以完全幸免于市场动荡或地域风险。

不容忽视的是,虽然物流服务的前景稳定,但物流对许多企业而言是一项成本开支。长期的不明朗局势及冷淡情绪可能会导致一些企业削减成本,从而打击物流产业的需求和增长。此外,尽管能锁定租金的长期租约将可在不稳定的市场中带来强劲的盈利增长,但这也意味着涉足于物流领域的REIT将无法在好景时从租金的上升趋势中受惠。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 股市资讯
Publish date:16/12/11

提高买家印花税 产业发展商严重受创

提高买家印花税 产业发展商严重受创
文: 钟旭光 (译:杨佳文) 2011年12月16日 展望
“楼价究竟会跌多少?”这个问题在12月7日那天肯定浮现在所有私宅发展商的脑海中。

政府在12月7日下了一剂猛药,宣布将征收私人住宅的额外买方印花税(简称ABSD),市场人士认为这一轮楼市降温措施较之前激烈,而且可能令楼价下跌。

根据ABSD的规定,当外国人士和企业在本地购买私人房产时,必须缴付额外的10%买方印花税。永久居民和新加坡公民也受到条例限制,但他们的税率较低。购买第二个或以上房产的永久居民和购买第三个或以上房产的新加坡人必须缴付额外的3%买方印花税。

查看图片


*生效后的买方印花税率

征收ABSD的原因

政府是出于经济考量才征收ABSD。副总理兼财政部长尚达曼在附带声明中指出,目前流入本地产业市场的投资额“比过往来得多”,“只要利率偏低,此趋势就不大可能消退”。他也表示,ABSD将“减低投资需求,同时避免楼价将来会不稳定,出现大幅度调整”。

这个论点有其根据,因为目前房屋市场过热,可能会演变成产业泡沫并导致国家面对经济问题。爱尔兰在2008年就面对了类似的金融危机,其当时偏低的利率令产业泡沫产生。当产业价格上涨至过高水平时,放贷过多的爱尔兰银行体系因而承受重压,并在全球金融危机爆发之下崩溃,导致其出现主权债务危机。

政府征收ABSD的另一个原因是为了解除选民对外来人才涌入的顾虑。在2011年5月的大选期间,国人共同关注的其中一项课题正是外国人涌入造成竞争加剧的问题。大选之后,政府承诺将秉持“新加坡人优先”的原则,并推出了多项措施,如提高企业雇用外籍员工的税款。政府征收ABSD是为了抑制不断上涨的私宅价格,使之回跌至新加坡人能负担的水平。

的确,尽管政府之前已实行了四轮的降温措施,私宅价格在过去两年还是持续上涨。目前的价格处于纪录高位,与1996年和2008年的高位相比分别高出13%和16%。私宅价格之所以不断攀高,是因为有更多外国买家在本地置产。戴德梁行研究(DTZ Research)在2011年11月25日发布的一份报告中指出,在今年第三季的总购买量中,外国买家占了约19%,与两年前同一季度的10%相比几乎翻倍。

改变市场走向

ABSD引起业内人士议论纷纷,原因是它将改变产业市场的走向。前几轮的降温措施针对的是投机者,而ABSD的对象则较为广泛,将产业投资者纳入其中。这项突如其来的改变令业内人士感到讶异和失望。其中,新加坡产业发展商公会(REDAS)就质疑实行这项措施的时机,原因是经济前景不明朗。

此外,在政府售地计划下,新的住宅用地供应量也快速增加。在宣布征收ABSD的同一天,国家发展部也表示将在2012年上半年为可建造1万4,100个单位的土地进行招标。虽然在已确认名单中的单位仅为7,000个,比今年下半年的8,100个单位来得少,但市场的总供应量为8万1,600万个单位,其中约4万1,000个单位仍未售出。鉴于经济预料将在近期内放缓,市场大量的单位恐怕难以受到持续强劲需求的支持。

我们也需考虑ABSD对自住买家的心理所造成的影响。由于外来投资额将因ABSD而减少、经济前景不明朗和供过于求的情况将会出现,楼价很可能会下跌。若自住买家采取观望态度并延迟购屋,楼价的跌幅可能会更大。

产业发展商受创

因此,在政府征收ABSD的消息公布之后,产业发展商的股价随即滑落。六家主要发展商(参阅文中图表)的股价在12月8日下跌了6-8%。分析师指出,整个领域都将受到影响,销量预计将减少超过五分之一,价格则将下跌10-20%。

其中,发展高档及中高档产业的商家将受到最大影响。大华继显(UOB Kay-Hian Holdings)指出,“ABSD将导致房屋需求大幅减低,特别是高档产业,这类产业的外国买家多达50%”。和美投资(Ho Bee Investment)和SC全球(SC Global Developments)(更多详情请见第14页)这两家著名高档产业发展商的股价因而在12月9日分别下跌7.9%和10%。这两只股在这周的最后两个交易日下跌了超过15%。

在政府征收ABSD后,分析师普遍认为,若要购买产业股,应选择那些业务遍及海外,以及建造其他类型产业(如商用大楼、工业大厦和零售商场)的发展商。但一些证券行如联昌国际(CIMB)则不那么乐观,CIMB给予发展商的评级为“减码”,同时较看好房地产投资信托基金(REITS,领域分析请见第16页)。

年关将近,产业发展商的表现至今都远不如海峡时报指数。如今又面对ABSD造成的冲击,产业股应该不大可能在短期内赶超海指。



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 股市资讯
Publish date:16/12/11

末日论者预言世界末日将在2012年12月21日到来

末日论者预言世界末日将在2012年12月21日到来
文: 刘选烈 (译:陈锦如) 2011年12月22日 展望
末日论者预言世界末日将在2012年12月21日到来,投资者不应逃避现实,我行我素。

有很多预言家认为世界在2012年将会终结。本文将会与投资者探讨这个问题,让大家在事先得到警告后,做好防备,待恐慌出现时,善用机会获利。

玛雅人预言世界末日将会在2012年12月21日到来
玛雅是一个古文明的发源地,玛雅人精通天文及数学。一些部落的精神领袖及末日论者提到,玛雅人的日历显示2012年12月21日将会是玛雅5,000年文化的终结,亦即世界的终结。

如果世界末日将在2012年12月21日到来,我们如何是好?这是值得我们反思的问题。

加拿大卡尔加里大学(The University of Calgary)的玛雅考古学教授Kathryn Reese-Taylor专门对玛雅人长达5126年的日历进行研究,她发现玛雅人并没有提到2012年12月21日是世界末日。她表示,“2012年12月21日世界末日论”可能源于部落的精神活动。

Kathryn教授提到,在玛雅日历中刻有八个“终结时期”,其中一个指“2012年12月21日”为一个“玛雅纪”(“katun )的结束,每个“玛雅纪”历时二十年(大约相等于我们的10年期)。刻在玛雅日历“2012年12月21日”旁边是一个守护神的降临,据Kathryn教授观察,这位守护神大概是要监督一切在2012年12月21日将会举行的仪式。

事实上,投资者不应对玛雅预言的末日之说过于担心,如果市场真的因为这件事情而出现恐慌时,大家不妨趁低吸购,从中获利。

地磁波在2012年底时对地球产生的效应
末日星座预言家则提到,接近2012年底时,地球将偏离银河系统,导致南北极失去它们的磁性。如果这个地磁效应受到干扰,鸟兽和鲸鱼将迷失方向。电子产品由于利用磁波来操作,它们也可能失灵。

过去曾有成群的鲸鱼莫名其妙涌上沙滩,集体自杀。也曾有报道指候鸟迁徙时迷失方向。还有报道指青蛙、蛇等进行大迁移,更遑论“旅鼠跃过悬崖”。从这些动物集体自杀和大迁移的情况来看,可能与地球的地磁效应有关。

迄今为止,还未有报道指任何国家的国防或通讯受到地磁波的严重干扰。接近2012年底时,究竟南北极的地磁变化对电子器材的干扰,是否会造成人们不便和影响地方的安全?还不得而知。

新加坡人今年的生活也遇到过一些干扰,像最近发生的地铁系统失灵;低洼地区发生淹水;股票交易平台也曾经受影响。但总的来说,我们的生活并没有因为自然或地磁因素,而受到严重、长期的影响。

自然或地磁因素是否将影响新加坡人的生活或投资,不得而知。

从投资的角度而言,如果投资者能洞悉可能会影响主要投资者和基金作出决定的因素则无往不利。主要投资者和基金如果因恐慌而避开新加坡,那是很自然的反应。在2012年后,一旦恐慌因素消失,这些主要投资者和基金将涌回新加坡。到时候,那些有资本又懂得怎样投资海峡时报指数成份股的投资者,将成为大赢家。

每四年发生一次危机的新理论
我们要谈的新理论是一项观察,而不是预测。自1987起,差不多每四年就发生一次金融危机,因此市场观测2012年将发生另一起世界金融危机。

在1987年,日本房地产泡沫破灭。日本的经济从那时起就一直萎靡不振。当美国在1980年陷入衰退时,日本成为经济强国,大肆买入欧美及英国的房地产和综合企业,但常言道,有升必有跌。

在1991年,中东出现波斯湾危机。这场危机的起因是伊拉克占领科威特,但历时仅仅数日。由于担心石油短缺影响世界经济,油价因而飙升。自那时起,石油出产国总是旧调重弹,以石油短缺作为调高油价的借口。

在1995年,木材价格滑落,接着是东南亚国家(包括新加坡)的股市暴跌,随后在1998年发生亚洲金融危机,亚洲货币纷纷贬值。

在2000年,网络泡沫爆破,将美国市场及世界股市推向深渊。

在2004年,印度洋板块断裂,导致滔天大浪的海啸淹没周边国家的海岸,包括印尼、普吉岛、槟城和印度东南岸。

在2008年,最严重的世界金融危机发生,起因是美国发生次级抵押贷款违约及马道夫(Bernie Maddoff)庞氏骗局。

2012年即将到来。世界股市已经感受到欧洲危机所带来的压力。人们开始意识到,即使是国家或政府的主权债券也可能违约。2012年究竟会否发生天然或人为的灾难,应验末世论者的预言呢?2012年相隔2008年刚好四年,危机会出现吗?

金融业在2012年将出现曙光
无论末日论者的预言说什么,我们都得面对现实。最大胆的言论是日本奥姆真理教在2003年预言,世界将被核战争摧毁。在2008年,罗纳德・威恩兰德(Ronald Weinland)错误预言耶稣基督将在2008年9月30日降临,以目睹世界的终结。接着就是黄金黎明隐士修道会(Hermatic Order of the Golden Dawn)预言世界将在2010年终结。最新末日论者哈罗德・康平(Harold Camping)则预言世界在2011年10月21日终结。

经济危机确实会影响世界,但它们会很快得到解决,就像美国的严重次贷危机及马道夫(Bernie Maddoff)庞氏骗局一样。而在任何地方发生的自然及人为灾难也如是,在其他国家提供的人道援助下,人民生活也会很快恢复正常。

股市、商品与期货市场、房地产及其他的投资形式也必然会出现波动,投资者与基金就是被市场的波动吸引着,而监管机构的存在就是为监察波动的成因和过程。任何引起市场波动的因素都会受到监察,包括引起轰动的预言。

如果散户投资者要以最大的信心进行投资并获得最大的收益,就必须去芜存菁。投资活动一定要以基本面为依据。话虽如此,如果散户投资者能了解外行投资者的羊群心理,以及市场经营者的技巧和意图,将有助于他们在投资中获得最大利益。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 股市资讯
Publish date:16/12/11

US-listed stocks: Top 10 blue chips to watch in 2012

US-listed stocks: Top 10 blue chips to watch in 2012
Top-quality names, most with dividends, could deliver gains of 15% to 20% next year. Think Berkshire Hathaway, Freeport McMoRan, Procter & Gamble, Daimler, Seagate Technology, Vodafone and Royal Dutch Shell, among others.
After a volatile year, stocks are heading into the homestretch about where they began. The benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500 Index finished the week ended Dec 9 at 1,255, within a percentage point of where it started the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 5% in 2011, largely reflecting the strength of a single stock, IBM, which has risen 32% to US$194 and dominates the price-weighted index, owing to its lofty absolute share price.

Most equity strategists are optimistic at best about 2012. They are worried that earnings growth and strong corporate balance sheets will be offset, in investors’ minds, by the tough economic backdrop and the European debt crisis. Barry Knapp, Barclays Capital’s chief market strategist, recently set an S&P 500 target of 1,330, 6% above the close on Dec 9. He expects a “difficult” 1H followed by a 2H rally.

The important offset to the economic and political situation is valuation. US stocks look reasonably priced, especially with 10-year Treasuries yielding 2% and short-term rates near zero. The S&P 500 is valued at 13 times projected 2011 profits and about 12 times next year’s projected earnings. Bulls cite the combination of attractive valuations and super-low rates. “I feel like a kid in a candy store… I don’t know where to begin,” says Joe Rosenberg, chief investment strategist at Loews, tells Barron’s. Rosenberg is partial to a range of blue-chip stocks.

Barron’s compiled a list of 10 stocks that could reward investors in 2012, including bluechips such as Berkshire Hathaway, Procter & Gamble, Royal Dutch Shell and the UK’s Vodafone Group. In this diversified selection, nearly all pay dividends, the exception being Berkshire, which is understandable, given CEO Warren Buffett’s extraordinary investment skills. The average yield is 3%, in line with that of the 30-year Treasury. Half of them have price-to-earnings ratios below 10 on next year’s projected profits. The most expensive stocks, Berkshire and P&G, are valued at about 15 times estimated 2012 earnings.

Four of our top 10 are European, reflecting depressed markets and high-dividend yields there. European investors and managements have a preference for dividends over share repurchases, the reverse of the situation in the US.

Barron’s initiated this 10-stock compilation at the start of this year. That group has trailed the market this year (see table) mostly because of declines in General Motors, JPMorgan Chase and United Continental. Through Dec 8, the 10 stocks were down an average of 6.9%, versus a 1.9% drop for the S&P 500. All our new favourites have the potential to generate 15% to 20% total returns in 2012. Here’s a closer look.

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY
Warren Buffett rarely comments on the stock, but he sent a strong signal that he felt it was undervalued in September when the company announced its first share-buyback programme in his 46-year tenure as CEO. The buyback announcement did not amount to much because Berkshire set a limit on what it would pay — a 10% premium to book value — and the stock quickly traded above that threshold.

While the Class A shares have moved up 15% since the buyback announcement to around US$116,000, they look appealing, trading for less than 1.2 times our estimate of yearend 2011 book value of US$102,000. Class B shares trade around US$78 and are valued at 1/1,500th of an A share.

Berkshire is in its best shape ever, with a diversified business mix producing profits of about US$7,500 ($9,800) a share annually, or US$12 billion. Berkshire offers exposure to an improving economy, an upturn in property and casualty reinsurance rates and a rising stock market, thanks to its US$70-billion-plus equity portfolio, including a new US$11 billion investment in IBM. Barclays analyst Jay Gelb carries an “overweight” rating with a price target of US$127,500. The chief negative is Buffett’s age — he is 81 — and the lack of an obvious successor. Yet, a healthy Buffett hopes to run Berkshire for at least another five years.

If Berkshire trades at a modest 1.2 times estimated year-end 2012 book of US$112,000, the stock would trade around US$135,000, 16% above current levels. Downside seems limited, with the buyback in place, buttressed by US$31 billion in cash.

METLIFE
The big US life insurer looks appealing based on two key measures: earnings and book value. At US$31, the shares are valued at less than seven times projected 2011 profits of US$4.92 a share and for a similar multiple of estimated 2012 earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.06. And the stock trades at just two thirds of estimated year-end 2011 book value of US$49 a share. This is a conservative measure of book value, or shareholder equity that excludes investment gains.

MetLife gave an upbeat view on 2012 two weeks ago, noting that it has significant excess capital and will likely build even more next year, which would allow a higher dividend payout and significant buybacks.

After the analysts’ meeting, Nigel Dally of Morgan Stanley wrote that “the outlook looks significantly better than what is reflected in the current stock price”. He has an “overweight” rating on the stock and a US$45 price target. MetLife is expanding overseas as well. Following its deal in 2010 to buy some of American International Group’s life-insurance operations, MetLife now gets more than a third of its profits from outside the US.

Negatives include a low-rate environment that hurts reinvestment income and overall profits and a modest looming hit to shareholder equity from regulatory changes. These issues are not major and appear well discounted in MetLife’s depressed stock price.

SANOFI
This big French drug concern should more than survive its major patent expirations this year. It could generate some of the best growth among its peers starting in 2013. Sanofi has an attractive drug portfolio that is not well appreciated by US investors, including treatments for diabetes, cancer and cardiovascular disease, vaccines and animal-health compounds.

The US listed shares, now around US$35, trade for under eight times estimated 2011 profit of US$4.58 a share and yield 5%. Sanofi’s valuation is one of the lowest among major drug companies. Next year’s profit is expected to decline about 10% but then expand in 2013 and potentially increase 10% in both 2014 and 2015.

“Sanofi trades at a discount to almost every other large-cap [drug company]; yet, its longerterm financial average is better than the group average,” writes Bernstein analyst Tim Anderson in a note last month. He has an “outperform” rating on the stock with a US$44 price target — 25% higher than the current quote.

There’is some debate about whether Sanofi overpaid when it bought biotech Genzyme for US$20 billion earlier this year. Barron’s argued that a buyback would have been a better use of corporate cash, but CEO Chris Viehbacher sees Genzyme as a key part of Sanofi’s postpatent growth engine. One believer is Warren Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway has been a sizeable holder.

SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY
Summer floods in Thailand have temporarily washed out about 25% of global disk-drive production and hurt Seagate’s chief rival, Western Digital.

That is producing a financial windfall for the unaffected Seagate that may last through 2012. Beyond the supply disruptions, Seagate should benefit from consolidation. Likely to be winnowed down to just three main producers shortly — Seagate, Western Digital and Toshiba — the industry should see greater pricing power and discipline.

Seagate trades for under six times estimated profit of US$3 a share in FY2012 ending in June. Needham analyst and Seagate bull Richard Kugele has an above-consensus estimate of US$3.92 a share for the current year and a US$35 price target. The shares recently traded below US$16. “Seagate is going to throw off more than half its market value in cash during the next four quarters,” Kugele says. The company could boost its dividend, now providing an ample yield of 4.6%, buy back stock or reduce debt.

Bears say disk drives are on their way out as solid-state memory supplants them. Yet, PCs are not going away and the explosion of Internet content creates storage demand that can be met economically only with disk drives. Seagate also benefits from a savvy and shareholder-friendly management team led by CEO Steve Luczo that is moving to cement Seagate’s competitive position in an improving industry.

VODAFONE
US utility stocks — telecom and electrics — are among the richest sectors of the stock market, trading for about 14 times projected 2012 profits.

Yield-oriented investors can do better in Europe, where Vodafone, the leading global wireless company, trades at a discount to its US counterparts and yields a fat 5%. Its US-listed shares, now trading around US$27, fetch 10 times estimated profit in the current FY ending in March. That is a sharp discount to Verizon Communications, which trades for 15 times estimated 2012 profit.

Vodafone and Verizon share ownership of Verizon Wireless, the No 1 US cell-phone company and each company’s best asset. Vodafone owns 45% and Verizon 55%. Investors have not given Vodafone full credit for that valuable stake, which could be worth US$75 billion, or more than half the company’s market value. That will change in early 2012 when Verizon Wireless pays US$10 billion in dividends to its corporate parents.

Vodafone could hit US$35 in the next year, a 30%-plus total return. That is a nice potential gain for a low-risk stock.

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL
The three major international integrated oils — ExxonMobil, Chevron, Royal Dutch — all look reasonably priced, trading for eight to 10 times projected 2012 profits. What differentiates Royal Dutch is the highest dividend yield among the trio at 4.7%, double that of Exxon and two percentage points higher than that of Chevron. The bull case on Royal Dutch is that cashflow growth is accelerating as new energy projects in places such as Qatar and Canada come onstream and that its dividend, unchanged since 2009, will start to rise in the next year. Net debt levels are down sharply, falling
to US$20 billion in the latest quarter.

“We estimate Shell’s free cash flow will outstrip its current dividend by 50% to 100% consistently during 2012 to 2014,” writes Morgan Stanley analyst Martijn Rats, who sees 9% annualised dividend growth in the next three years.

Shell’s US listed shares, now around US$70, could top US$80 in the coming year, according to Morgan Stanley’s projections.

FREEPORT MCMORAN COPPER AND GOLD
Copper is critical for developing economies, and Freeport McMoRan Copper and Gold is the world’s largest investor-owned producer with a diversified resource base on four continents. Freeport shares, around US$39, are attractive based on several measures, including earnings, dividend yield and asset value. The stock is down 36% this year, thanks to a 20% decline in copper prices to US$3.40 a pound. Yet, Freeport is very profitable at current copper prices, given mining costs of less than US$1 a pound. The stock trades for eight times both 2011 and 2012 profits. It yields 3.7%.

Recent copper-mining transactions suggest that Freeport is significantly underpriced. If Freeport ever went on the block, it likely would fetch a nice premium and attract a range of bidders, including mining giant BHP Billiton and even China, which accounts for more than a third of worldwide demand.

Freeport has a great balance sheet with no net debt and huge reserves of nearly 100 billion pounds of copper, plus a large amount of gold. Investors worry about a drop in Chinese demand and a labour strike at a large Indonesian mine that has effectively shut down production. The China risk seems already reflected in the stock price and the Indonesian strike probably gets settled next year.

COMCAST
The cable-TV industry does not receive much credit on Wall Street for its dominant position in providing high-speed Internet access to consumers.

And, for Comcast, the country’s largest cable provider, the lucrative Internet business may now be more important than TV services. “Cable companies are infrastructure companies, not media companies, and they’re winning the battle in most of America [versus the telecom industry]”, notes Craig Moffett, the cable and telecom analyst at Bernstein. Moffett has an “outperform” rating and US$32 price target on the stock.

Comcast shares, at US$23, trade for 12 times next-year earnings. Moffett expects the company to lift its dividend and boost its share-repurchase programme in 2012 using its growing free cash flow. The stock yields 2%.

Comcast is still working to turn around the flagging NBC broadcast-TV business, which is in last place in prime-time ratings and losing money. Fortunately, NBC represents just 6% of Comcast revenues and probably has nowhere to go but up. Investors have been waiting for Comcast to aggressively return cash to shareholders, and that may start in 2012.

PROCTER & GAMBLE
With its broad array of popular brands — including Tide, Bounty and Pampers — and its global marketing muscle, P&G offers a low-risk way to play the growth in developing countries. The stock, a laggard in recent years, trades around US$65, or 15 times projected profits in its current FY ending in June.

P&G yields more than 3% and another dividend increase is likely in 2012. Throw in buybacks, and P&G is returning about 7% to shareholders each year. If dividends increase in the next 10 years at anything like the pace of the past decade, P&G could be yielding at least 5% by 2020 based on the current share price. P&G is like a bond with an increasing yield. Wall Street has been critical of the company for focusing too much on developed markets and higher-priced products, but P&G’s strategy is changing. Bernstein analyst Ali Dibadj has argued that P&G needs to undertake a large restructuring initiative to cut costs and shift its “centre of gravity” from its headquarters in Cincinnati, Ohio to the emerging markets, where it gets about 30% of sales.

The company believes it is capable of high single-digit to low double-digit annual earnings growth. That is double the growth of electric utilities, whose shares trade in line with P&G. Dibadj, who upgraded P&G to “outperform” in 3Q, has a price target of US$73 on the shares.

DAIMLER
Luxury-goods makers ranging from Coach and Tiffany to LVMH and Richemont are in vogue with investors, but the maker of Mercedes Benz, arguably the ultimate vehicle brand, is very much out of favour.

Daimler’s US-listed shares trade around US$45, down from a peak of US$79 in 2Q, and fetch just six times projected 2012 profit. They yield 6%. Investors are worried about several issues, including costs, an ageing line-up of high-end Mercedes cars, the lack of profit momentum and troubles in Europe, where Mercedes gets half its sales.

Yet, Daimler has a great balance sheet, with more than US$15 a share in net cash and investments. It is also one of the largest global makers of trucks, and its Mercedes franchise is strong in status-conscious China. Even detractors concede Daimler looks appealing based on a sum-of-the-parts analysis. It is one of the world’s great industrial companies. The stock looks too cheap to ignore.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.theedgesingapore.com
Publish date: 19/12/11

Daryl Guppy: Bumps in China landing

ALL ECONOMIC LANDING require more skill than landing a crippled A380. The Shanghai Index’s fall below 2,300 in the past week is significant. It suggests a market moving closer to the 2008 lows, but not at breakneck speed. The altitude of the landing field may be lower than anticipated, but it still has the characteristics of a soft landing.

The fall in inflation to 4.2% was larger than anticipated and is a 14-month low. The impact of the eurozone crisis is also larger than anticipated, with industrial output dropping to a 27-month low in November. The eurozone is China’s largest export market. Economic data released recently confirms the economy is slowing. Industrial output fell to 12.4% in November, down from October (13.2%). Investment in major projects also slipped to 24.5% in November, down marginally from October (24.9%).

The fight against inflation is not over, but there has been a substantial victory. The victory carries a cost, but it also now opens the door to a change in monetary policy. The reduction in the reserve rate ratio is the first step towards introducing liquidity back into the economy.

The Shanghai Index has yet to reflect this potential for policy change, but foreign funds have been waiting in eager anticipation. China recorded a net cumulative inflow of US$924 million ($1.2 billion) in November, according to Royal Bank of Scotland estimates. This was three times as large as inflows into Taiwan. Capital going into China accounted for 55% of the total November inflows into the Asian region.

That is a vote of confidence and, more significantly, it is a vote taken before the 50-basispoint cut in the reserve rate ratio announced on the last day of November. The rate’s easing is a positive for China banks. The Standard and Poor’s upgrade of Bank of China and China Construction Bank to A and the maintenance of the A rating for Industrial and Commercial Bank of China have seen increased foreign interest. When the monetary easing cycle begins, it generally leads to outperformance by the banks.

A reduction of inflation and an increase in liquidity may have a flow-on effect on China’s demand for gold. This has been seen as a hedge against inflation, and Chinese consumers have been buying gold in increasing amounts. China’s demand for gold jewellery rose 13% in 3Q2011. The Wild Gold Council estimates the country now accounts for 28% of world demand.

This growing demand has been fuelling China’s appetite for overseas gold assets, with Shandong Gold poised for a takeover bid on US-based Jaguar Mining. A ripple of anticipation is running through Australian gold producers and explorers, providing some interesting trading opportunities. All the evidence points to a soft landing, and the challenge is to identify this level and the conditions of a rebound on the Shanghai Index chart.

Support near 2,300 on the Shanghai Index has failed. The potential triple-bottom rebound did not develop. This is very significant because it shows the downside trend has gathered strength. The market has a high probability of retesting the consolidation area that developed during the 2008 lows.

In 2008, the Shanghai market created a consolidation pattern between 1,700 and 2,000. This was not a strong consolidation pattern because the pattern continued for about three months. Also, the lower and upper edges of the consolidation were not frequently tested. This consolidation area is important, however, because it provides the downside targets for the current new downtrend in the Shanghai Index.

The upper edge of the 2008 consolidation pattern is near 2,000. This is the first support target for the current market fall below 2,300. A fall below 2,300 has a support target near 1,700. This is the lower edge of the 2008 market consolidation pattern.

There are two questions for the Shanghai Index. First, how will the current market fall develop? And second, how will a market rebound and uptrend change develop?

How will the fall develop? Support near 2,300 is historically very strong. It was the resistance level in February and March 2009, and then a support level in July 2010. When the market falls below well-established and strong support levels, then the fall is often very rapid. This suggests a rapid fall towards 2,000 before any new consolidation develops. The fall is accelerated because many investors who entered the market in anticipation of a rebound from 2,300 will now sell.

How will the rebound develop? Market rebounds can develop in four main types of patterns. The first is an L-shaped consolidation. The index moves between well-defined support and resistance levels. Investors watch for successful support at the support level near 2,000 or 1,700. The market then develops a sideways movement or consolidation pattern. The height of the pattern is measured and used to set the first upside targets.

The second pattern is a rounding bottom or saucer pattern. The pattern is created by a gradual decline in the selling pressure, which is a distribution pattern. This is followed by a gradual increase in the buying pressure, which is an accumulation pattern. The shape of the recovery is best defined using a curved trend line. These patterns often take two to six months to fully develop. The depth of the pattern is measured and projected upwards to set the first upside breakout target.

The third pattern is a V-shape recovery. The downtrend is defined with a clear downtrend line. When the market moves above the value of the downtrend line, then the upside breakout is very rapid. This pattern developed in the Shanghai Index in 2009.

The fourth pattern is an inverted head-and shoulders pattern, created by a series of three rally-and-retreat patterns. The neckline of the pattern is used for the upside breakout target calculations. At the moment, there is a low probability that an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern will develop in the Shanghai Index. Investors will wait until the market successfully tests new support levels. The first target is 2,000 and the lower target is 1,700.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.theedgesingapore.com
Publish date: 19/12/11

Midas still bullish on China rail sector

Midas still bullish on China rail sector
Written by Michelle Teo of The Edge Singapore
Tuesday, 20 December 2011 10:57

Patrick Chew, CEO of Midas Holdings, firmly believes the market has been too hasty in judging the company’s performance and outlook following a string of significant setbacks in its main market. The company has lost some 65% of its market value since the beginning of the year as the railway industry in China suffered one blow after another, including a deadly high-speed train collision in July that killed dozens of people and injured hundreds more when four passenger cars hurtled off a 15m-high bridge.

But Chew dismisses the market’s apparent loss of confidence in the company. “The market needs to understand businesses,” he says, “Businesses go in cycles. You cannot be having a business that’s only going up. Now, we may be going through a lull period, but we have to be patient.”

Indeed, after years of fast-track expansion, Midas now finds itself in the middle of the turmoil and uncertainty clouding the Chinese railway sector, leading analysts to question its growth. The Chinese government has apparently slammed the brakes on high-speed railway projects, amid concerns about safety, overly ambitious plans and corruption among railway officials. This would result in a drastic drop in Midas’ sales while leaving the company with excess extrusion production capacity. Earlier this month, Kim Eng Research downgraded the stock to a “sell” and noted that the Chinese rail industry may be at a standstill. This follows similar moves by analysts at OCBC Research and IIFL earlier.

But Chew brushes aside fears that Midas’ growth is being stymied by the developments, and says that the Chinese government’s investment in the sector is expected to continue for the medium to long term. “As far as we are concerned, there has not been any [official] news to say that spending [on railways] or the plans have been derailed,” he says.

But what is telling is that Midas is scaling back its expansion for now. Chew says the company is installing just one, instead of two, production lines at its new Luoyang factory. And he’s also looking at ramping up business outside China. Is it enough to weather the current storm?
Midas makes aluminium alloy extrusion products for passenger cars. The company is the only China-certified supplier to the top train manufacturers on the mainland: Alstom, Siemens and Bombardier. In 2006, Midas formed a joint-venture company, Nanjing Puzhen Rail Transport Co (NPRT), to develop, make and sell metro trains and related parts. NPRT is Midas’ 32.5%-owned associate company.

Over the past several years, Midas has seen its order book balloon from 87 million yuan (RM44 million) in 2004 to a high of 1.08 billion yuan in 2009, as the Chinese government raced to build thousands of kilometres of high-speed rail to link the coastal cities with the vast interior. There were plans to double the length of the high-speed rail by 2020.

According to Chew, the Chinese railway industry currently accounts for roughly 80% of the company’s business. For FY10, Midas made S$48.5 million (RM118 million) in net profit, or 29% more than the year before. Revenue was 38% higher, at S$207.4 million. And at the beginning of this year, the growth trend had looked set to continue.

In early February, Midas won an 82 million yuan contract to supply parts for 30 train sets for one of the inter-city high-speed train projects, for delivery this year. However, since then, the contracts that have been secured are for inner-city metro train projects instead. In June, Midas was awarded a 62 million yuan project to supply parts for the Shanghai metro over the next two years. The following month, NPRT announced two deals totalling 3.13 billion yuan to supply metro train sets for Nanjing, from 2013 to 2015. On Aug 10, Midas said it secured two contracts worth a combined 95 million yuan to supply aluminium alloy extrusion components to the Guangzhou and Kunming metro projects. Delivery is expected to continue until 2013.

Freeze on new rail projects
In August, the Chinese government said it was suspending new railway construction and cutting the speed of bullet trains running on newly built lines. Investors reacted quickly and Midas’ share price plunged nearly 24% within a week to a low of 40 cents on Aug 11. This followed the sacking in mid-February of railway minister Liu Zhijun, who was being investigated for corruption and the train collision in eastern China in July.

To be sure, Chew had been expecting the adverse impact of the train disaster, and in early November issued a profit guidance ahead of the 3QFY11 results. For the three months ended September, Midas posted a 4.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in revenue to 259.3 million yuan, but earnings slumped almost 60% from the year before to 27.4 million yuan. The company says this was due to higher operating expenses, including staff and production costs, as well as higher tax rates, as the concessionary rates it had previously enjoyed no longer applied.

Kim Eng analyst James Koh notes that Midas had delivered fewer trains in 3Q11, owing to the various recalls and investigations following the July crash, and the same delivery slowdown in metro trains led to NPRT turning a loss during the quarter. Midas took on a 3.6 million yuan share of the loss. “In the short term, you can see that our financials are affected,” Chew acknowledges. “But in the medium to longer term, we still believe that railway infrastructure spending will continue in China. The country has the world’s biggest railway market.”

Midas is continuing with its expansion in Luoyang city in central China with a new factory, but Chew says it will now have only one aluminium alloy extrusion production line instead of two, along with a downstream fabrication line to process passenger car parts and other machinery. The plant would have boosted Midas’ production by 40% to 70,000 tonnes of extrusion components a year, and was to have been the exclusive supplier of aluminium alloy extrusion products and other fabricated components to Luoyang CSR Mass Transit Vehicle Co.

“Because it’s a commitment we have given to the Luoyang municipal government and also our customer CSR Luoyang, we must honour it. But instead of going full swing, we go slow,” Chew says. “The new line will start [at end-2012]. Then, from next year and the year after, we have to look at how the whole sector is going before we decide on the next line.”

Help from Beijing
Chew points out that the Chinese government has been coming to the rescue of the beleaguered Ministry of Railways (MoR), which was weighed down by a fast-growing debt of more than two trillion yuan. In October, the finance ministry halved the taxes on interest earned from railway bonds issued from that month up to 2013. That paved the way for another debt issuance of more than 20 billion yuan. Banks have also been directed to extend more loans to the MoR.

Moreover, observers note that with the broader manufacturing and export-based economy slowing, Beijing could relaunch some of the stalled railway investment plans to stimulate growth. With these initiatives, Chew is hopeful that high-speed railway infrastructure building will resume next year.

Meanwhile, Chew says Midas is also looking at increasing its orders overseas, particularly from Europe and Asia. In February, the company obtained 83.5 million yuan worth of contracts to supply aluminium alloy train car components to urban rail projects in Malaysia and Turkey. This follows a supply contract worth €20.3 million (RM84 million) in October last year for a train project in Switzerland. Midas has also supplied train car components to Singapore’s Circle and Downtown Lines. “In the past, we had been very focused on China. Right now, with the short-term impact, we are aggressively seeking overseas orders,” Chew says. “We hope to increase [overseas orders] from about 5% [of business] to maybe 15% to 20% in the next three or four years.”

Nevertheless, analysts point to the uncertainty in the Chinese railway sector as a major risk to Midas’ performance. “Unless new high-speed train orders are issued by the MoR in 2012 and Midas is able to replenish its order book, the company remains at risk of incurring further losses from higher costs and excess capacity,” IIFL Research’s Shekhar Jaiswal writes in a Nov 15 report. But he also notes that most of the negative news has been priced into the counter, which is trading at historical lows. IIFL has a “reduce” call on Midas, with a price target of 38 cents.

Kim Eng’s Koh does not expect a recovery in orders for at least the next three quarters. “Much has been made of the recent measures to help MoR raise funds, but this may not necessarily be for new orders,” Koh says in a Dec 5 note. He has cut FY11 to FY12 earnings estimates by about 30% to account for slower execution of Midas’ current order book of about 800 million yuan. He has a price target of 30 cents, about 10% lower than Midas’ current trading price, based on eight times FY12 forecast earnings. “We expect things will get worse before they get better.”

In contrast, DBS analyst Paul Yong reckons that the worst is over and expects a pick-up in train orders in 1H12 following the recent Chinese government initiatives. Still, he has factored in lower order wins until 2QFY12, and cut FY11 and FY12 earnings forecasts by 34% and 33% to S$40 million and S$48 million respectively. Yong has lowered his price target to 48 cents, based on the price-to-book ratio, but keeps his “buy” call on the stock. — The Edge Singapore



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.theedgesingapore.com
Publish date: 19/12/11

Uni-Asia Finance eyes distressed assets as Europe’s debt woes hit shipping industry

Uni-Asia Finance eyes distressed assets as Europe’s debt woes hit shipping industry
Michio Tanamoto, a co-founder of Uni-Asia Finance Corp, had highhopes for the compan yearly this year when it reported a return to the black in 2010 with a tiny profit after two straight years of losses. The former investment banker had expected the group to build on its recovery momentum to put up a much stronger performance in 2011. That, however, was not meant to be as business took a hit in the aftermath of Japan’s massive earthquake and tsunami in March.

Now, another potential problem is looming as the European sover-eign debt crisis threatens to wreakhavoc on the global banking system. That could spell bad news for Uni-Asia, an arranger of structured financing for the shipping industry. Structured financial instruments include syndicated loans and mortgage-backed securities. “In the near term, we are cautious,” says Tanamoto, 55, who’s also the group’s chief operating officer.

Yet, it’s not all gloomy, he concedes. Amid the uncertainties in the global economy, Tanamoto says Uni-Asia can still expect pockets of growth. In the meantime, the company intends to capitalise on opportunities that are emerging to shore upprofitability in the longer haul.

Besides arranging structured financing for ship owners, operators and builders, Uni-Asia also invests directly in assets, primarily vessels and real estate. The problems in Europe are throwing up some bargains as a number of ship owners and operators are having trouble raising funds to pay for vessels they ordered because banks there have become more cautious about lending, says Tanamoto. “Many shipyards have been building vessels but buy-ers are not able to pay. Those shipsare now in the market, at cheaper prices. That is the biggest opportunity for us to invest.”

The company has 15 vessels in its portfolio, including two that will be delivered in the next two years. Fourteen of these vessels have charter agreements, most of which will mature only in a number of years from now, guaranteeing Uni-Asia fixed income in the foreseeable future. The group is looking to acquire four or five handysize bulk carriers, according to Tanamoto. Each of these ships typically costs between US$20 million ($26 million) and US$25 million in the market.

Chartering out these bulk carriers would not be a problem, even in the current general environment of depressed freight rates and reduced global trade, he says. About 45% of the over 1,700 small handy-size bulk carriers in the industry are more than 21 years old and will have to be scrapped in the next few years, he notes. When that happens, new vessels will have to come on streamas replacement.

The versatility of this group of vessels, with a capacity of between 25,000 and 40,000 deadweight tonnes, is another plus. “They are small. Big ships can be used only in big ports,but the small handysize bulk carriers can be used in any port in the world. The vessels have very high versatility,” Tanamoto says.

Uni-Asia has about US$40 million in cash that can be used to partly fund these purchases. It will tap banks for the rest of the money. Its “very strong and close connections” with global financial institutions, including banks in Asia, have served it well so far, mitigating the risk of any fallout from Europe’s debt problems, says Tanamoto. European lenders were behind up to only 30% of the financing for the company’s existing fleet, he notes. Earlier this year, it carried out a rights issue that raised about $25 million that was used to expand its portfolio to the current 15 ships.

Vessel chartering accounted for about 42% of Uni-Asia’s fee income of US$8.2 million for the first nine months of 2011. The group’s other income sources comprise hotel income, investment returns and interest income. Total income from January to September came in at US$38.1 million, up 3% y-o-y.


Property business
The biggest contributor to the company’s overall income has traditionally been hotels. Uni-Asia operates 14 hotels in Japan. The business accounted for $26.5 million, or almost 70%, of its total income for the first nine months of 2011. In 3Q2011, hotel income grew 6% y-o-y to US$10.1 million. The q-o-q improvement was even stronger, up 29%, as business in 2Q2011 was hurt by the fallout from the Japan earthquake and tsunami in March.

Tanamoto expects a stronger performance from the hotel business from next year, when the contracts to operate a handful of these properties start to expire. “Out of the 14 hotels, some do not have very favourable leasing contracts. No matter how much income we get, we need to pay a fixed lease to the owner. In a poor market like during 2010 andthe first part of 2011, revenue wasdown but we still needed to pay a fixed lease, which exceeded our income.” Of the four hotels on a fixed-lease agreement, the last expires in 1H2013. “Without those onerous contracts, our profitability will improve very much,” he says.

Besides hotels, Uni-Asia also has investments in residential projects in Japan. Its unit Capital Advisers is aproperty investment manager, holding about US$1 billion in real estate. It acquired most of its properties in Japan before the collapse of Lehman Brothers, when prices were high. Consequently, the group incurred about US$20 million in marked-to-market losses during the global financial crisis when asset prices collapsed. Tanamoto expects the company to book revaluation gains in the coming quarters, though, as property prices have rebounded.

The company’s other property investments are in Hong Kong and mainland China. It has a stake in a Grade-A office building projectin Kowloon that is expected to be completed in 1Q2013. “We are looking for a second or third opportunity of this type of development project in Hong Kong,” Tanamoto says. In Guangzhou, Uni-Asia owns 14 units of an office tower that are all leased out.


Poised for turnaround?
Overall, Tanamoto is hoping the company will turn the corner as its Japan operations begin to stabilise and it seeks to boost income from the shipping business. Restoring investors’ confidence is also on the agenda. Uni-Asia, which counts shipping group Evergreen International
as its second-largest shareholder with a 10% stake, has generally not had much to show investors since it was listed in August 2007. Interest in its stock has fallen substantially over the years, with the current price about a quarter below its IPO priceof 55 cents.

A key reason has been that many investors are not familiar with the business of the company. The only analyst coverage, mean while, has been from DBS Vickers, as its parent DBS Group Holdings
was the IPO manager. Even then, the broking house dropped coverage in 2009.

The unexplained sharp swings in Uni-Asia’s share price in 2007 had also left a bad after taste with some investors. Two months after its debut, the stock rocketed on strong volume to a high of $2.50, an increase of more than four-and-a-half times from its listing price. Within days of reaching that level, it lost about half its value. Several broking houses had to slap trading curbs on the counter then. The company was queried several times by the Singapore Exchange(SGX) but couldn’t explain the sudden price movements.

A group of 33 retail investors,many of whom were contra traders who lost big money on their bets, lodged a complaint with the Securities Investors Association of Singapore, alleging stock manipulation. That prompted the SGX to launchan investigation. Up till now, however, the company is still clueless about the cause of the price fluctuations.

While four years have passed since that episode, many investors may still not be familiar with Uni-Asia, Tanamoto concedes. “We have been trying to improve our engagement with investors and shareholders, but it is still not 100% satisfactory to us.” The message he would like to convey to the market, nonetheless, is that the company’s worst days may be over after falling victim to the global financial crisis.

“This year, we had expected a reasonable jump from 2010, but due to the earthquake and tsunami in March, our Japanese operations were badly hit. We are still on track, however,for a full recovery,” he says. “Operations in Japan have improved and our shipowning business has taken delivery of new vessels. The purchase price for each vessel is very low, so we are enjoying very decent charter income.”

Last year, the group turned in a net profit of US$2.4 million on revenue of US$48.2 million, reversing the FY2009 loss of US$14.5 million. For the first nine months of 2011, it lost US$2.1 million on heavy operating expenses.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: http://www.theedgesingapore.com No 503
Publish date:19/12/11
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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