Saturday, December 17, 2011

曹仁超: 低利率时代即将结束 香港楼价下调压力大

低利率时代即将结束 香港楼价下调压力大
http://news.dichan.sina.com.cn21世纪经济报道作者:曹仁超2011/12/6 9:15:57

 美国11月失业率回落到8.6%,是因为有31.5 万人放弃再找工作,而非就业机会上升。美国就业人口占总人口的比例已由2000年的64.5%下降到58%,代表过去十年超过1000 万人不再就业。目前平均失业时间长达40.9周,上述是好消息吗?

  香港按揭利率过低

  香港零售业从2011年7月开始走下坡路,自2003年7月受内地自由行刺激而被看好的零售股,经过8年好景也就如此了。

  2001年因中国加入WTO而引发全球商品价格上升,到今天随着中国人民币及工资大幅升值,上述说法面临考验。11月1日,澳元宣布减息,此乃两年半以来首个讯号,代表矿务股高潮已过;9月29日,加拿大BC省(不列颠哥伦比亚省)发现新银矿亦令银价出现大幅调整,金价进入上落市。

  伯南克是研究1929年华尔街危机的专家,在他任内相信不会让“大萧条”在美国重演。因此,每次有人大叫Double Dips(二次探底)时,个人反而认为是入市时机,例如2009年3月,U.S.Conference Board(世界大企业联合会)公布消费信心跌至最低,以及2011年10月CNN/Opinion Research Corporation调查结果显示, 48%的美国人认为2012年将出现大衰退。

  入行40年,这些论调听得太多了渐渐有了免疫能力,危言的确耸听,但大多事后发现只是自己吓自己,在各国央行都大印钞票的环境下,是不可能再次出现大萧条的;反之,日本模式的“资产负债表衰退”却随处可见。日本资产负债表衰退只影响日本,美国资产负债表衰退却影响全球!日本政府负债由日本人承担,欧洲政府负债却由外国银行承担,因此引发主权债券危机。

  伯南克的QE及QE2未能改变2006年年中开始的美国楼价方向,却改变了2009年起的香港楼价方向,联汇制度令香港楼房按揭利率一度跌至2.5厘,而加拿大按揭利率较香港高出一倍、英国较香港高出125%、澳大利亚高出250%、印度高出450%、巴西高出500%,低利率支持香港楼价由2009到2011年进一步上升。

  随着中国内地银根抽紧,今年第三季起香港资金大量回流内地,香港低按揭利率时代结束,上述改变对未来香港楼价影响如何?仍是未知数。再加上2012年新特首可能改变香港土地未来的供应量。各位知不知道2009到2011 年香港楼价上升的原因?一、美元贬值;二、楼按利率下降。上述两大因素在2012年将消失,如再加上土地供应量上升,未来香港楼价下调压力较一般人估计的大。

  欧元区“同床17梦”

  1990年后的日本,GDP没有增长,其问题主要是政治出现瘫痪,过去15年换了15个首相。今天上述问题在G7国家同样出现,透过货币政策(因为日元自1985年到1994年大幅升值),美国延迟了上述问题的出现,但到了2007年已避无可避。

  欧元危机的出现是因为吸收了希腊、西班牙、葡萄牙及意大利等国家为成员,南欧人着重享乐,竞争力一向不及德国,一旦需要同德国人在同工同薪条件下竞争,工作机会流失,失业率自然狂升——我女儿两年前到希腊旅游时点一个午餐,他们要花三小时才弄好。至于葡萄牙人的工作态度,在澳门生活过的人亦早已领教过;西班牙及意大利人同样是享乐主义信徒。欧元问题是把享乐主义者同努力工作者绑在一起,甚至希腊新政府同意50% haircut(削减债务),问题一样未解决。

  欧盟由27个国家组成,17个加入欧元区共同使用单一货币欧元,问题就出在此。货币统一了,但17个国家仍各自为政。夫妻同床亦可异梦,更何况17 个政府同睡一张床?英国人的智慧就是加入欧盟却不放弃英镑。欧盟27个国家加起来占全球GDP的20%,略低于美国,欧洲不是其它国家的产品主要出口市场,因此对全球其它国家经济影响不及美国,但不是没有影响,欧元危机令明年投资市场极难捉摸。

  恒生指数由2010年10月的24989点回落到今年10月4日的16170 点,然后又反弹到20272点。于过去一年(即去年10月至今年10月)恒生指数跌幅达35.29%,于10月又反弹了25.36%,10月的升市中出现低价股升幅超过高价股的情况。上述走势于1974年10月曾出现过,当年11月股市又再回落并于12月恒指见150点,才结束了由1973年3月开始的超级大熊市(跌幅达91.54%),估计恒指后市在16000点到21000点之间来回震荡。

  UBS研究了过去300年英国股市的表现,发现表现最出色的20年就是1980至1999 年,平均每年回报8%至10% ;最差的是1900至1919年及1960至1979年,平均每年回报率是-4%到-6%。其它时间每年回报率只有2%至4%。香港股市没有如此长时间的历史,大部分资料只由1970年开始。令人担心的是,港股表现最出色的时候至2007年已经结束——如没有中国内地因素,相信港股表现出色的日子早于1997年结束?

ETF推升金价
债券孳息率自1980年起开始回落,1982年8月美股开始超级大牛市。债息进入2000年仍在回落但股息率则止跌回升,理由是2000年美国标普500股息率已跌至1厘(当年 10年期债息仍高过6厘)。今年第四季再次出现股息率高出债息,上一次是2009年第一季,这是否利好后市?
香港从1997年起透过投资赚钱变得愈来愈困难,理由是特区政府的领袖愈来愈愚蠢,以及世界金融市场愈来愈疯狂。西方国家政府只晓印银纸,新兴工业国官员则愈来愈贪污。

2001 年911事件后美国政府推出反恐政策刺激金价大升,美元汇价大跌。2007年10月美国次按危机引发2008年金融海啸,今年又要面对欧洲主权债券危机,9月金价一度见1921美元。过去8年金价大幅上升部分理由是因为推出黄金ETF,令投资黄金变得十分容易。大量资金流人ETF令黄金投资需求大增,但今年下半年起面对大量ETF被兑现,代表金价在1500至1920美元之间上落机会最大。

至于房地产投资仍是「地点、地点、地点」,例如 1997年应该弃香港到英语区国家投资,包括加拿大、澳洲、美国及英国;2003年重返香港买豪宅;今年下半年连内地房地产is on fire,万科总裁郁亮说:「中国房地产的好日子时间太长了,对大家的影响都很大。甜水里泡大的孩子,很容易变成温水里的青蛙。」中国经济如何在房地产售价回落中保持GDP增长率在6%至8%?

今年除加拿大外,连澳洲房地产亦开始回落。
根据S-Curve理论,经济上升初期可维持繁荣20至 30年,那段日子是百花齐放期,之后进入整固期即汰弱留强(美国由1966至1982年,香港1981至1984年);然后再出现15至20年繁荣期。香港经济由出口导向转为服务型只需3年(1981年7月至1984年7月),美国要16年(1966至1982年),中国这段整固期需时多久?

内地项目有买早无买错
根据世界银行副主席林毅夫在Demystifying the Chinese Economy中估计,时间不会很长。理由是中国经济仍可改善的空间十分多,包括地域差距可以拉近,以及国企改善空间仍十分大;加上2009年中国人均年收入约3744美元,只是全球平均数43%(或美国人均收入8%),中国绝对有条件再支持15至20年的GDP高增长。换言之,明年宜趁低吸纳内地投资项目,事后发现可能是买早了一点,但绝不会买错;因为即使在1998年亚洲金融风暴下,中国GDP增长率亦从未低于6%,相信这次亦不会,估计明年GDP增长率在8.5%左右。

中国楼价到了今年下半年才开始回落,GDP增长率亦由去年年初10.5%下滑到今年第三季9.2%,估计明年GDP增长率只有8.5%,形成中国对铅、铁矿砂、锌、铝、铜、镍和棉花等需求下降,上述原材料中国占全球总需求30%至45%,当中国GDP增长率放缓,对上述原材料价格已产生影响。中国经济将由粗犷型走向节省能源和资源型,例如自2008年起对石油供求形势亦出现改变,来自油页岩的石油及各国输气管建成,大量投入服务令未来12至15年全球能源供求形势大大改变(尤其是中国)。2009年油价上升不是因为需求回升,而是因为美元汇价下跌,到今年5月,相信美元回落期已完成,不再影响油价。

美国2008年出现金融海啸,令过去中国透过大量生产或大量出口的经济模式站不住脚,故不得不转型,大量中小工厂将被淘汰出局,2008年11月中国政府提出经济转型策略,2009年中国GDP只占全球GDP 8.5%,却消耗全球钢材46%产量、煤炭45%、水泥48%,中国电力、钢铁、有色、石化、建材和纺织等生产平均消耗能源及原材料较先进国家高出 47%。过去10年中国高耗能工业不但推高了全球原材料售价亦为中国带来严重环境染污问题。

如何从高耗能时代转化为善用资源时代?透过节省能源、原材料的开支及发展起资本密集工业,服务业成为经济上升的主要动力。中国较香港大许多,加上今天面对国际形势不及80年代香港那时好,转型自然需时久些。

明年眼前三座大山:一、美国GDP陷入低增长;二、欧罗危机没完没了;三、中国房地产进入调整期。利好方面:一、随着CPI于今年8月见顶,人行毋须抽紧银根;二、A股自2009年8月调整至今,恒生指数自去年11月起调整,资深投资者早已手持现金等候机会执平货。

今日世界经济问题是E7(7大新兴工业国)拥有全球50%人口只占全球GDP 20%,而G7(发达国)只有全球20%人口却占全球GDP 50%。世界经济进入再平衡期,2001年中国GDP 1.3万亿美元,2010年5.9万亿美元,上升353%。2001年美国GDP是中国八倍,今天只是中国2.3倍。今年美国负债是GDP 100%、中国只是GDP 17.5%。10年前中国加入WTO后忙于出口,美国却忙于攻打伊拉克和阿富汗,之后又忙于抢救银行。今年第三季中国GDP仍以9.2%速度增长、美国却只有2%。美国失业率8.6%、中国3.5%。10年后两国经济又如何?过去10年美国政府政策是透过支持楼价上升去刺激经济增长,到2006年中美国楼价开始塌下来,中国政府自2009年中开始一直压抑楼价上升,到今年下半年才见效。

一份由Associated Press and Life Goes Strong负责向美国47至65岁人口进行的调查,约有73%决定退休后继续工作,有53%担心退休金无法支持一个舒适的退休生活,42%承认于过去3 年(2008至2010年)损失金钱。另一份由雅虎向年轻人所作调查,37%没有任何退休计划,41%不再相信「美国梦」。上述情况是否代表OECD国家的年轻人进入「没有梦想」的世界。
香港年轻一代亦不例外?

1929年大萧条后引发共产思想向全世界扩散,社会主义已流行在西方世界。金融海啸后产生相同后果,仇富和反资本主义思潮在全球各地开花,例如「占领华尔街」的号召在全球有良好反应,忘记过去100年经济比拚结果──资本主义制度战胜了共产主义制度,甚至社会主义制度。

资本主义仍是最好
15 世纪欧洲开始的文艺复兴浪潮改变了西方人的思想。欧洲人不再服务天主,结束了神权时代,改为追求人的生存价值,即人文主义抬头。利伯维尔场出现,企业转向服务消费者,透过满足消费者的需求而壮大。由于市场是开放的,任何企业皆面对其他企业加入竞争,令产品售价下跌、利润率不断减少甚至消失,除非该企业能不断创新、为消费者提供更佳的产品或更廉价服务。

激烈竞争结果令人类生活质素不断提升,利伯维尔场精神更由欧洲向北美洲扩散,然后是亚洲及其他国家。资本主义制度的成功引发了强权侵略及财富分配不均问题(例如19世纪欧洲人利用科技上的优势,侵占亚洲及非洲资源及土地,到处建立殖民地。第二次世界大战结束后欧洲列强虽然逐步废除殖民地,但财富集中在社会上成功企业者手中,产生贫富悬殊问题)。共产主义同社会主义者希望透过政府去重新分配财富,干预市场正常运作的代价在苏联及中国大家已眼见。甚至实施社会主义的欧洲、日本亦出现经济停滞不前。资本主义制度虽然不完美,却是人类近300年生活条件大幅提升的原动力。

制衡资本主义的力量是建立良好民主制度,把资本主义创造出来的财富让社会更多人共享!年轻一代在控诉社会不公时,应好好思考今天在资本主义制度下的国家,为穷人所提供的福利是其他制度无法比较。良好的福利制度制造了大批懒人,令日本经济「失落」和爆发欧债危机。如何在创造财富与分配财富之间取得平衡?是这一代年轻人好好思考的问题。至于占领华尔街行动,只会进一步削弱政府的威信,令社会走向混乱。丘吉尔话:「没有人喜欢资本主义制度,只是其他制度较它更差(包括纳粹主义、共产主义,甚至社会主义)。」

抱怨改变不了什么
食脑时代早已取代食力时代。依靠出卖劳动力的大众无可避免成为贫穷人士。上述情况亦非任何社会制度可以改变,年青一代愤怒、示威和抗议亦改变不了。如果你冇脑、他日便贫穷。以金价计,今天美国人工资已重返80年代水平,较1966年更低许多,打工系冇发达。1967至1997年楼价由每方呎60元,升到12000元(上升200倍),恒生指数由1967年64点升到2007年32000点(上升500倍),每盎斯金价由35美元升到1920美元(上升54倍)。作为80 后或90后,应该学会少点投诉、示威,多点学习如何投资。利用market melts down做short,利用market melts up做long。学习逃避风险而非加入什么反资本主义行列,Take the risk and be a winner! Steve Jobs在过去14年令苹果市值上升11761%,谁说过去10年没有赚大钱机会?找寻你的财富,因为抱怨改变不了什么。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 新浪
Publish date: 06/12/11

《资本人物》: 众说巴菲特




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 优酷视频
Publish date:7 Nov 2007

黄国英:因时制宜 调整选股方向

黄国英:因时制宜 调整选股方向
http://www.sina.com.cn 2011年12月06日 08:34 丰盛金融
  丰盛金融资产管理董事 黄国英

  拣股票之难,难在要因应时势。当时移势易,优点可以变成缺点,缺点又可以反过来成为优点,未能及时变通,便会死守过气股份,事倍功半。

  最典型的案例,是环球金融股,九十年代至2007年为止,金融产品创新推动金融机构杠杆化,金融股当然尽领风骚,海啸后监管严厉去杠杆化之下,注定了从此冇运行,还用十年前经验选股,自然坐困愁城。至于现时可能出现一个微妙转变,就是通胀预期降温,过去几年跑赢的资源股,动力可能减弱,相反用资源的公司将会追上。

  其实还可以有更细微的变化,前两年香港工厂攻打内需市场,以减轻对出口的倚赖,当时选择工业股的准则,是避开劳工密集的行业,集中在资本密集的公司,因为工人难求,兼且工资持续上涨构成成本压力,所以工人的需求愈少愈好,资本密集的公司可以更高速迎接这个商机。当然现时工人依然难求,工资一样上升,但选股方向,却应该倾向劳工密集的公司。

  理由十分简单,是从行业整固这一点去著眼,早前中国内销好景,资本密集的行业纷纷大加产能,现时内需市道随着楼市放缓而下滑,那些新添置的机械是被迫停顿,但却依然存在,当市道回苏,随时候命,因此这行业要回复风光是比以往困难。

  相反劳工密集的工业,要养住一大班人,在最近的逆境之中,有不少公司会丧失意志继续作战,只要一散班,产能基本上不复存在,要重新聚集一大班工人再开档,在目前内地已不是吸引的项目,所以产能只会买少见少,何况被淘汰的公司,亦会释放一些劳动力出来。

  就算形势稍为好转,劳工密集型的公司仍然极多瑕疵,不过炒股票和拣老婆有分别,并不是要追求完美,只要股价低残,出现有利的转变,足以令股价由超残改善至无咁低残,已经可以获利甚丰,所以不妨循此角度寻找机会。

  (作者为注册持牌人士)





Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 新浪财经
Publish date: 02/12/11

PhillipCapital Market Watch 16122011 (Weekly Market Commentary)



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date:16-12-11

Income distribution forecast tough: PST

Business Times - 17 Dec 2011


Income distribution forecast tough: PST

By JAMIE LEE

PACIFIC Shipping Trust (PST) - which will be taken private by its holding company after unitholders voted in favour of the proposed delisting yesterday - said forecasts on its income distribution could be inaccurate given the current economic uncertainty.

PST was responding to BT queries after the unitholders' meeting yesterday, during which it also responded to criticisms that the independent financial adviser's (IFA) report on the delisting did not account for the significant boost to revenue from recent ship acquisitions.

In early October, holding company Pacific International Lines proposed to buy up the remaining 40 per cent of PST that it does not own. The shipping firm offered 43 US cents in cash per unit, a price that the IFA, PricewaterhouseCoopers Corporate Finance, reported to the independent directors as fair.

Stuart Hong, who holds under 2 per cent of PST through his investment firm Unisysco Holdings, wanted to know the impact that the acquisition of nine vessels for charter last year would have on income distribution, he told BT on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, PST responded, saying that an independent valuer had reviewed revenue contributions from newly acquired vessels to arrive at the charter-attached valuations of the new vessels, and these were factored into the IFA's assessment of PST's revised net asset value.

When asked yesterday about how the additional revenue would flow through to the income available for distribution, PST said any forecast or projection of future income and distribution of the trust depends on key assumptions. These include counterparty performance, potential charter renewals and rates, the distribution policy and the timing and pricing of any equity fund raising, said PST, adding that the independent directors had made the same point to the 80-odd unitholders at the meeting.

'Given the uncertainties in the current economic climate and the market, any such assumptions relating to the future performance of the business may not be accurate,' it said. 'A forecast based on such assumptions could be potentially misleading to unitholders as to the outlook for PST.'

Asked to comment yesterday, Mr Hong would only say that the meeting was 'an opportunity to talk face-to-face and address the opposing side's arguments'.







Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:17-12-11

马航企业计划将影响2万职员

马航企业计划将影响2万职员
财经新闻 财经 2011-12-16 19:02
(八打灵再也16日讯)马航消息指出,该公司近期推出的企业计划将影响2万名职员。

《太阳报》报道指出,由马航集团总执行长阿末昭哈里为首的管理层昨天与公司职工会及执行员协会见面,以决定有利于航空公司的策略部署。

马航于上星期公布复苏计划,包括减少亏损的航线、分拆辅助业务、添置新航机及在2013年转亏为盈,不过引起人们关注的是马航是否会被迫裁员。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 南洋商报
Publish date:17-12-11

Best opportunities in half a century

Best opportunities in half a century
That’s what veteran strategist Joe Rosenberg sees, and some of the best bargains, he says, are in the Dow Jones Industrials

Joe Rosenberg is known for his candour, and for his understanding of all major asset classes. That comes from 50 years’ experience on Wall Street, and his deep knowledge of markets and financial history. After beginning his career as an airline analyst at Bachein the 1960s, he was hired in 1973 by the late Larry Tisch at Loews, the New York conglomerate controlled by the Tisch family. Rosenberg recalls that some people, including Barron’s columnist Alan Abelson, told him that he might not last long at Loews because both he and Tisch were too strong-willed toget along well.

Yet, Rosenberg has been there ever since. He was chief investment officer until 1995, when he became chief investment strategist. He’s also an adviser to Loews’ current CEO, Jim Tisch, Larry’s son. In addition, Rosenberg is a director of CNA Financial, the property-and-casualty insurer controlled by Loews.

Barron’s has interviewed him on several occasions, most recently in February 2008. Then, he urged Microsoft to scrap its proposed merger with Yahoo! because he felt Microsoft was overpaying. Luckily for Microsoft, Yahoo! rejected the deal, which would have taken place at nearly double the Internet company’s current share price

Rosenberg doesn’t always get things right. He was bullish on Fannie Mae and bank stocks prior tothe financial crisis, during which financial stocks were crushed and Fannie Mae was taken over by the government.

Rosenberg spoke with Barron’s late last month at his New Jersey home. He is now bullish on US blue-chips such as Microsoft, Merck and Johnson & Johnson, saying investors have a historic opportunity now to buy them at attractive prices. He believes that Microsoft boss Steve Ballmer should act more like SamPalmisano, CEO of IBM. He is also bearish on US government bonds— with yields near historic lows. Rosenberg emphasised that these are his own views, and not necessarily those of Loews.

Europe has been a big overhang for the US stock market. How bad is it?

People are projecting a worst-case scenario about intertwined banking systems in Europe and the US. That fear factor is what is impelling people to stay away from equities in the US, and is precisely why equities here are so attractively priced. Now, I am not going to say all equities. There is a big disparity in valuations between the best companies in the world, large-cap companies — both growth and value — and small-cap stocks, which have done well over the past few years, and are not as attractively priced. The price-to-book ratio of the Standard & Poor’s 500 relative to the Russell 2000 is near a multi decade low.

In my 50 years on Wall Street, it is rare that I’ve been so attracted to some of the best and finest companies. I will name a few but, generally speaking, I feel like a kid in acandy store, because I don’t knowwhere to begin. There’s Microsoft, Merck, Amgen, Johnson & Johnson,
Teva Pharmaceutical, Staples, Oracle and Cisco. The best companies in the world are now some of the cheapest stocks.

Stocks have disappointed for along time.
We’re at an inflection point in history, and that’s what I want to emphasise. I’m not talking about a trade. I don’t know what is going to happen next week or next month.

In terms of economic history, thee quity market looks a lot like the Treasury-bond market in the early 1980s, when I had the most difficult time convincing people that they ought to buy bonds at 15% yields. Equities can easily generate a 10% annualised total return over the next fiveto 10 years. And they would still not be overvalued at that point. That’s the beauty of it.

What should investors do?
If investors are afraid to put all theirmoney into equities at one time, keep cash — and then every time you get another one of these scares, add to your position.

Investors are running scared.
These scares are nothing new in financial history. Sometimes, the scares are financial, and sometimes they are political. I can recall worse scares than the current one. Nobody wanted to gonear equities during the Cuban missile crisis. That was a much worse scare than this one. It didn’t last as long, but it was much worse, because we were actually on nuclear alert in this country. You can have cheap equity prices or good news, but you can’t have both at the same time.

Many investors are worried that aweakening economy will mean earnings disappointments in 2012.
I think earnings will hold up well next year, but my base case isn’t so much about the short-term earnings outlook

A lot of the smart money has a very low allocation to US stocks, including university endowments at Harvard, Yale and Princeton.
In the endowment world, everybody wants to be in vogue, so if you suggest to a fund that they ought to buy private equity, they are happy to do that. The wonderful thing about private equity is that you don’t get marked-to-market every day. With stocks, you have to be prepared to suffer some volatility, but the reward for that volatility is the ability to buy companies at prices that are, relatively speaking, as cheap as I have everseen in my career

One of my key points is that some of the largest potential investors are all underinvested in equities, andthey will get reinvested in equities because these are long cycles. When I first came to Wall Street, the typical pension plan was managed by US Trust, and it would be two-thirds in bonds yielding 2% or 3%, and the rest in equities. That was a carry over from the 1930s and 1940s. It later completely reversed.

Many investors are worried about the political backdrop.
America has loads of problems, but I certainly don’t believe that the country’s best days are behind it. The current administration doesn’t exactly foster a positive environment for the business community, either through its rhetoric or through excessive regulation. But even that has a positive aspect to it

With business leaders so cautious,corporate balance sheets are in superb condition.

How do US stocks compare withother asset classes?
It’s important to look at all investments on a relative basis. One alternative to equities is to earn nothing on your money at all in cash. Now, earning nothing on your money is not without its risks, because your money can prove to be relatively worthless.

The return on government bonds and the return on cash is indistinguishable. It is basically zero. Now, why would somebody want to invest in a five-year Treasury bond at 87 basis points for five years?

There was a time in the 1980s that I used to scream that people should buy five-year Treasuries yielding 16%, and I would have arguments. People would say to me, ‘Well, you know, government budget deficits are out of control, and that’s why yields are so high.’ Well, if government budget deficits were out of control when Treasuries were paying 16%, what do those same people say to me about government budget deficits being out of control now, when government bonds are paying 87 basis points?

Looking back, bonds have been a great asset class.
The great bond bull market began 30 years ago, in September 1981. For the past 30 years, 30-year Treasury bonds have outperformed the S&P 500. The last time that phenomenon occurred was in 1842. That is how far back you have to go. Now, if you want to look at a period of 20-year outperformance, you have to go back to 1939. While I was around in1939, I wasn’t managing money actively back then.

How are stocks valued?
Many companies have price-to-earnings ratios [PERs] of 10, and free-cash-flow yields of 10%. So these companies can basically LBO themselves[do a leveraged buyout] by borrowing two- to three-year money at 2% or 3% and buying an earning asset yielding 10% or more.

So, what’s your advice?
If a person is not a professional and he wants equity exposure, one way to get it is by buying the SPDR DowJones Industrial Average ETF [DIA,an exchange-traded fund]. Many of the companies that I would want to own are part of the Dow Industrials.

You’ve been bullish on Microsoft for years, and the stock has gone nowhere. What could change that?
Everyone is talking about IBM, because Berkshire Hathaway took such a large stake in the company. But Microsoft by every metric is better than IBM. Its top-line growth is better. Its valuation is better. Its return on capital is better. Microsoft has a 12-month trailing-earnings yield of 10%; IBM’s is around 7%

Is Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer part of the problem?
He is focused on operations, and should be focused on that, but he should listen to other people about the capital-allocation process. He should be more aggressive in buying back stock

There are two things that IBM CEO Sam Palmisano has done, and that Buffett alluded to recently. By the way, I think Buffett came pretty late to the IBM party. Palmisano basically has laid out a series of five-year plans, and he has met those targets. He also has communicated his intentions and his desires to Wall Street.

In this area, Steve Ballmer has been deficient. He has antagonised Wall Street by his absence. Why should he care about the stock price? His employees are shareholders. A better stock price certainly would help attract young people to work at Micrsoft. When people look at a company, they assume that the price of the stock is symptomatic of its success. With Microsoft, that is not the case. Since Buffett is a buddy of [Micro-soft chairman] Bill Gates and has him on the Berkshire board, why doesn’t Buffett tell Gates to take a page out of the success of IBM and apply it to Microsoft?

Microsoft is now around US$25. With better capital allocation, where could it trade?
It could easily trade into the US$40s. And then things become much easier, because a higher stock price becomes self-fulfilling. There are a lot of reasonable tech stocks: Oracle, Cisco Systems and Hewlett-Packard. I’d also mention the disk-drive industry, with Western Digital
and Seagate Technology. The consolidation of that industry means there are very few competitors, which gives them tremendous pricing power.

Are you partial to drug stocks
?Here’s an industry in which dividend yields often are north of 3% and 4%. Companies have spent hundreds of billions of dollars on R&D in the past 10 years, and have little to show for it. Some companies are realising that, and returning more of their earnings to shareholders. Merckis yielding more than 4%, and selling at a PER of nine, while spending US$8 billion [$10.3 billion] a year on R&D. Other companies have similar valuations, including Teva, which is large in generic drugs, and Johnson & Johnson, which is one of the premier companies in the world, has an AAA bond rating, and yields over 3%. Amgen is doing what Microsoft ought to be doing. It has just announced a US$6 billion bond issue, and a simultaneous repurchase of US$5 billion worth of stock.

It’s a Dutch-auction tender. Amgenis going to buy all US$5 billionat once.
That’s fine. Amgen isn’t overpaying for the stock, which has a free-cash-flow yield of 9%.
Abbott Laboratories is attractive, as is Zimmer Holdings ,which makes hip replacements

What other stocks appeal to you?
Staples. Here’s an industry that could be consolidating. Staples’ two major competitors —Office Depot and OfficeMax — can’t seem to get it right. There are ongoing rumours that the two may merge. Staples has a huge brand name and is very successful. It’s selling with a 10 PER and a 10% free-cash-flow yield. Staples is handicapped in the short run by what I consider unfair competition in its online business, which is not insignificant. Staples has to charge customers state sales taxes, whereas one of its largest competitors, Amazon.com, usually doesn’t. That’s anuntenable situation in the long run. If that changes, and I think it will change, it will be a big boost to Staples, which has a better brand namein office supplies than Amazon.

Many value investors like depressed financial stocks. What do you think?
I don’t want to recommend banks. The experience of the past few years has taught me that it’s impossible to figure out what banks own, even when you’re on the inside. As an outsider, I can’t analyse them. This doesn’t apply to MasterCard , but it does apply to Citigroup.

And emerging-market stocks?
I’d rather participate in emerging markets by buying US multinationals that get 50% or more of their revenue abroad, including the growing countries of Asia.

What’s your view on bonds now?
Treasury securities are probably in the final throes of one of the greatest bubbles I have ever seen. But I want to distinguish Treasuries from spread products, such as corporate bonds or Build America bonds — which are taxable municipals — or long-dated municipals. New Jersey recently sold transportation trust fund bonds with a yield above 5%, or 200 basis points more than the 30-year Treasury. That interests me. But I’m not making a bull case for spread products, because equities are so much more attractive.

What about junk bonds?
High-yield debt is not outrageously cheap. I prefer equities.

What are your thoughts on retirement?
When you interviewed me threeyears ago, I said this and I’ll say it again: Retirement isn’t in my plans. I’m happy working for Loews. I’ll hang around as long as [CEO] Jim-my [Tisch] wants me around.

©
2011 Dow Jones & Co, Inc


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.theedgesingapore.com / No 502
Publish date: 09/12/11

Star analyst Richard Bove on US bank stocks

Star analyst Richard Bove on US bank stocks
As the Eropean sovereign debt crisis has taken turns for the worse, battering US bank stocks, the face of grey-bearded star analyst Richard Bove has been seen almost everywhere. One minute, he is on CNBC particulating why the end is not nigh for US banks, the next moment he is popping up on CNN or Bloomberg TV trying to convince viewers that beyond the current pain lies a ton of investment gain.

Indeed, every other major global banking story you might read in the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, New York Times or Japan’s Nikkei newswire has a quote or two from Bove(pronounced “Bovay”). When he is not making media appearances, the senior vice-president of equity research at Rochdale Securitiesis churning out meaty research reports on US banks, brokerages and other financial services firms. He also has a great sense of humour. Late last month, as bank stocks took another hammering, he put out a sarcastic research note titled: “Is It Possible that the World is Not End-ing?” Known for his “unusually frank” views, Bove is a regular commentator on financial news channel and alongside Meredith Whitney, by far one of the world’s most quoted financial services industry analysts.

Like Whitney, Bove was among the first financial soothsayers to predict that some-thing was rotten with US banks long before the subprime crisis began to rapidly unfold inlate 2007, although like most of his peers hewrongly predicted that the venerable investment bank Lehman Brothers would survive mainly because he did not believe regulators would take the risk of letting it fail. They did. A severe credit crunch and a global financial crisis followed and the rest is history.

Bove, 69, is the US’ longest-serving bank analyst. A graduate of Columbia University, he has worked as an analyst for 45 years, including stints at investment banks such as Wertheim, Shearson, Raymond James, Hoefer & Arnett and Punk Ziegel, before it was purchased by Ladenburg Thalmann. Bove left Ladenburg Thalmann at the height of the global financial crisis in early 2009 under a cloud of a lawsuit from Bank Atlantic, which disputed one of his scathing research reports. Since then, he has been with Rochdale Securities and works out of an office near Tampa, Florida.

More recently, Bove has been criticised forbeing far too bullish on the prospects for US banks. Once the most bearish of analysts, Bove did an about-face on US banks after they bit the bullet, restructured, recapitalised themselves and put in place better risk management. Much to chagrin of the veteran analyst, investors continue to sell down bank stocks and refuse to pay heed to the fact that banks are seeing improvements in capital and liquidity levels, reporting fewer bad loans and starting to see their revenues rise. “It’s crazy. Nobody seems to be paying any attention to fundamentals,” he tells The Edge Singapore in a 35-minute phone interview from his Florida office.

The way he sees it, there is no banking crisis in the US. “The banking crisis in America ended in 2009,” he says. “What we have now is a European banking crisis, but do get this straight: American banks are benefiting enormously from it.”

It’s like déjà vu all over again. In the 1980s,the yen was rising rapidly and interest rates in Japan were substantially below those in the US. That allowed Japanese banks to make in roads into the US by buying banks, real estate and making loans to US companies. “Japanese banks had huge increases in market share in the US back then,” Bove recalls. In the 1990s, after Japan’s bubble burst, the situation reversed because Japanese banks found themselves carrying a huge pile of bad loans back home. When the Japanese banks started to restrcture, they pulled out of the US. American firms borrowing from Japanese banks in the US then reverted to borrowing from local banks, which triggered a new boom for US banks, which were at the time recovering from their own savings-and-loans crisis.

Twenty years later, European banks find them-selves in a situation fairly similar to that of Japanese banks in the early 1990s. “Right now, European banks cannot supply customers in America with dollars,” he notes. So, they are being forced to do three things: selling loans in packages to US banks at a discount, selling businesses (Dutchgiant ING sold its ING Direct business recently and HSBC has sold its US credit card business as well as some of its deposit businesses in the US)and exiting cash management as well as trade finance businesses, where US banks now have huge opportunities as Europeans retreat.

While everyone has a dooms day scenario on what might happen to US banks if things get worse in Europe, Bove says they are ignoring the reality that US banks are emerging as clear beneficiaries of the unfolding European crisis. “Take trade finance, for example. Of the five biggest banks in trade finance in the world, four are French,” he says. “World trade is not going to come to a halt, so US banks like JPMorgan and Citigroup are stepping in, along-side banks from Asia.” As for the assets that European banks are selling, Bove says US banks are picking up incredible bargains. “This is nota distressed sale of distressed loans, but perfectly good loans that the sellers need to dump to raise cash quickly,” he asserts.

But, wouldn’t any meltdown in Europe, a big part of global economy, affect North America and Asia because of all the financial linkages? “No, no, no,” booms Bove. “I honestly don’t believe that the world is about to melt because of what is happening in Europe.” Indeed, he does not even believe that Europe is going to completely melt. “If there is an economic meltdown, it won’t be as devastating as some people are making it out to be,” he notes. “Even if there isa financial meltdown in Europe, which is highly unlikely, I believe the likes of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley will make a great deal of money trading European sovereign debt and investment banking fees when the restructuring begins. This whole notion of a huge contagion that is about to hit the world financial system, which in turn will devastate US banks, is a fantasy concocted by media and commentators,” he says. While it is nice to consider all the “BlackSwan” scenarios, he adds, “the reality is that it’s just not going to happen”.

Bove believes that having recapitalised and restructured, US banks are in fairly good shapeand poised to benefit from the upturn in the US economy. “US GDP grew 0.4% in 1Q, 1.3% in2Q, 2% in 3Q and, by most estimates, the US will see 2.5% to 3% growth in 4Q,” he recitesthe numbers. Unemployment in the US has been up and down but, at 8.6%, it is substantially lower today than it was at the start of the year or in 2009, he notes. “This notion that the US is on the brink of another recession or could slip into a depression, with an extremely high unemployment rate, just doesn’t hold water,” hesays. Bove concedes that while US growth is still too slow and unemployment remains high, “the fact is that the US economy is moving in the right direction”.

How healthy are the US banks? Very healthy, affirms Bove. “If you look at the banks in the US, you will discover that deposits are soaring and consumers have been saving more because of all the scary headlines about the European debt crisis,” he says. Moreover, US bank loans are up. There has been an increase in auto and mortgage loans. “The increase in loans in key categories is far outweighing the decrease in construction loans and lending to commercial real estate,” Bove notes. Loan growth in the US has been running at a healthy annualised rate of between 6% and 8%. “That’s not what you get in the middle of a depression ora recession,” he says.

What’s more, US banks have the ability to keep on lending. “If you take the total capital of US banks and divide it by the total banking assets, it is at the highest level in 75 years, ”Bove notes. One would have to go back to the late 1930s to get a comparative figure. “When they do the accounting gimmickry of Basel III, the capital-adequacy ratios of US banks willcome down to 7% to 8%,” he says. “If you take the strict common equity of US banks and divide it by total assets, it is at the highest level since 1938. If you take US banks’ common equity plus their reserves, it is at the highest level ever in recorded history.”

The point Bove is making is that US banks donot need to go back to shareholders to raise more cash. “By every stretch of the imagination, the American banking system has never been more overcapitalised,” he says. “Deposits are up, loan sare up, liquidity is up, capital is up, earnings are up and 90% of the US banks that I follow beat consensus estimates in the last quarter.”

Singapore sovereign wealth funds GIC and Temasek helped the recapitalisation of Citigroup and Bank of America at the height of the crisis, and GIC still retains a big stake in Citi. Will US banks be coming around cup in hand, asking investors like GIC for more money in the foreseeable future? “No,” he says. “The only reason US banks might need to seek more capital is if the bureaucrats who have never known how to regulate them come around and say: ‘We know that you have more capital than at any time in the past 80 years, but we’d really like you to raise some more. It’s outrageous and I’ll say it won’t happen, because the European banks are fighting hard against these arbitrary rules. They are being forced to write down capital and are at same time being pushed to raise more capital than they really need. The likelihood that bureaucrats will be successful in forcing banks around the world to raise more capital in the current environment is remote.”

Bove is adamant that the US banking industry does not need more capital and has the capacity to grow its lending whenever demand picks up, he notes. The loan-to-deposit ratio for US banks in 2005 was 91%. That’s down to 78% today. “If you take a look at liquidity or the amount of cash, right now there is US$1.6 trillion of bank deposits sitting in the US Federal Reserve not doing anything other than buying government bonds,” says Bove

What does Bove make of the rigorous stresstests that US banks are being subjected to and the recent decision by ratings giant Standard & Poor’s to downgrade US banks? “The notion that Washington is stress-testing its banks because of some impending disaster in Europe that might decimate the US banking system is incorrect because the test is just annual compliance,” he says, noting that the Dodd-Frank Act requires US banks to undergo stress test severy year in January. “If you look at the parameters of the tests, the key number is 5%,”he says. That means the regulators will allow banks to walk away as long as their capital is 5% of their total assets. “Right now, the US banking industry passes the stress test without any difficulty,” says Bove. “What the January stress test will do is reinforce the belief that the US banking industry is in good shape.”

As for S&P’s downgrades, Bove notes that S&P is saying that the North Atlantic community will not be able to grow for several years into the future. “They are also saying that new regulations will constrain the ability of banks in the US and Europe to keep growing,” he says. Moreover, S&P is saying that, if the banks get into trouble, the countries that normally support the banks might not do so. S&P down-graded US banks on those key factors. “The S&P report did not say there was any financial problem related to the US banks that warrants a downgrade. S&P did not say that US banks don’t have enough capital or enough liquidity or their bad loans were rising,” he says.

If everything is hunky-dory with the US banking system, why are Americans so angry with their banks? “Look, the US President, the Congress and the regulators have made the argument that banks caused the financial crisis,” says an agitated Bove. “They have further made the argument that bankers are inherently dishonest people.” President Barack Obamais actually on record as saying that not enough bankers have gone to jail. Just this past week, Obama quipped that the US needed to figure out how to put more bankers in jail.

“The US President and the US media are trying hard to convince Americans that their financial problems, their job loss were created by the banks, which were then bailed out with taxpayers’ money with no money left to rescue the rest of the economy,” Bove says, adding that that is a misunderstanding of basic economics and finance. “What caused the financial crisis was not a bunch of criminal bankers who had been scheming to rob the American people, but the excessive build-up in funds as a result of trade imbalances and bad investments of those funds that the banks were part of.”

Having covered banks for 45 years as ananalyst, Bove says bankers are easy, low-hanging targets and scapegoats for the masses, who have been fed hyperbole by the media. “Americans need to understand that it was not a bunch of Bernie Madoffs who schemed to cause the crisis and have some how been letoff the hook,” he explains. “You cannot steala billion dollars from a guy who only has 50 cents or is a subprime borrower.”

So, what should investors do with US bank stocks? Just start buying them, says Bove, adding that US banks are clearly “not on the verge of another Lehman moment”, although most bank stocks were pricing in the fear that they werea few weeks ago. “You can frighten yourself to death by imagining that a piece of the sun could break out and hit the earth, but you really need to look at the facts and see the probability of such extreme events is remote,” he reasons.

Over the past few weeks, US bank stocks have already rebounded 15% to 20% on average from their recent lows. “Over the next 12months, I believe US bank stocks would be at least 50% higher from their current levels.” Over the next three to five years, US bank stocks in general could be 300% to 400% higher, he says. “The risk-reward ratio for bank investors is excellent. Some of the more beaten-down ones like Bank of America and Citigroup are likely to rebound more than others because they have fallen so far.” Bove’s favourites? JPMorgan Chase and US Bancorp.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.theedgesingapore.com / No 502
Publish date: 09/12/11

Property fright

Property fright
Demand for mid-range and high-end condos likely to be worst hit by latest cooling measure

On Dec 7, the government startled the investing community with further tightening measures for residential property. Bank and property stocks were pummelled, causing the Straits Times Index to lose 54 points to end the Dec 8 session at 2,728. City Developments was down as much as 8.4%, followed by Ho Bee Investments (down 8.1%), CapitaLand (down 7.3%), and Wing Tai Holdings (down 7.1%).

The imposition of the additional buyer’s stamp duty (ABSD) is effective Dec 8. Foreign buyers and non-individuals will be subject to ABSD of 10%; permanent residents buying a second property and above will be subject to ABSD of 3% and Singaporeans buying a third property and above will be subject to ABSD of 3%. Specifically, foreigners are targeted this time round. Previous measures such as the imposition of the seller’s stamp duty in February and August last year did not differentiate between foreigners, PRs and Singaporeans. This means a foreigner will now need to pay 13% more than the price of the property while local investors must be prepared to pay 6% more, says CIMB Research analyst Donald Chua.

Measures tied to residency status
“This is the first time the government is introducing tiered measures tied to the residency status of the buyers, and targeting excessive investment demand from abroad,” notes Leong Wai Ho, senior regional economist at Barclays Capital. “The previous rounds of cooling measures [rounds two to four] involved tweaking loan-to-value ratios to increase buyer prudence and raising the seller’s stamp duty to discourage short-term speculative purchases, all without discriminating between residents and foreign buyers.”On the supply side, the URA announced a placement of 14 residential sites on its 2H2012 Confirmed List under the Government Land Sales programme that can yield about 7,000 residential units. “This is deliberately less than the 8,100 units in each of the half-year Confirmed List for 2011, taking into account the large supply in the pipeline of about 80,000 units between now and 2015, and the dampening effect of the ABSD,” Leong points out.

“The share of residential properties purchased by foreign investors rose to 19% in 3Q2011,from 12% in 2010 and 7% in 2009. On a stockbasis, foreign owners’ share of the private residential market increased to nearly 25% as at end-September 2011, from 20% at the start of 2000. Foreign buying has pushed up prices —URA data shows private residential prices have risen to 13% above the previous high in 1996, and 16% above the more recent peak in mid-2008,” he adds. URA data also shows that YTD,primary transactions by foreigners and non-individuals combined have been much higher at 26% (2010: 22%) in the central region (moremid- to high-end properties) compared with the outer central region (more low-end properties)at 14% (2010: 9%).

Developers hit
DBS Vickers figures that demand for mid- and high-end residential properties will be the most affected. Logically, property funds and foreigners would be purchasers of this segment — defined as properties in the core central region such as Districts 9, 10 and 11.

“Developers with high GAV [gross asset val-ue] exposure to Singapore’s mid- to high-end residential market are SC Global Developments [high end 90%], Ho Bee Investments [high end 40%, mid end 20%] and Wing Tai Holdings [highend 40%, mid end 11%],” the DBS Vickers re port states. “Property stocks least affected willbe CapitaLand [high end 1%, mid end 8%] and UOL Group [mid end 8%, no high end]. Thus,we would avoid SC Global, Ho Bee and WingTai but treat knee-jerk-reaction sell-downs inCapitaLand and
UOL shares as opportunities. At $2.45, CapitaLand [“buy”, price target of $3.29] trades at a 52% discount to RNAV [revalued net asset value] of $5.06 while at $4.08, UOL sharesare at a 35% discount to RNAV.”

Kim Eng Research reckons the latest announcements are a double whammy for mass-market projects. It thinks these will experience a 10% to 20% price drop going into next year. “However, the full impact of the ramped-up supply will be felt only next year when this year’s record land sales are launched for sale, introducing stiff competition in a segment where margins are already slim,” it states. The latest round of cooling measures will also stifle demand as foreigner interest in mass-market projects has been rising, Kim Eng points out. Meanwhile, the traditionally foreigner-led high-end segment will see the 10% ABSDapplicable to the majority of transactions, it estimates. Even then, Kim Eng doesn’t think developers will cut prices “given the rising replacement cost of their inventories”.

CIMB Research’s Chua says this is a “bazooka” that will finally result in a price correction. Hehas been recommending an “underperform” on developers, and his top “underperform” is City Developments. UOB Kay Hian analyst Vikrant Pandey also has a “sell” on City Developments,and is expecting monthly transaction volumes to slow down by 20% to 30%, and prices to drop by 10% to 15% over the next one year.

OSK, too, has just downgraded its Singapore residential barometer — City Developments —to “sell” following the Dec 7 announcement. It is exposed to the high-end and mass segments. OSK is also downgrading Wing Tai Holdings to “neutral” because of its focus on the highend. However, the downside could have been priced into Wing Tai, which has underperformed the property sector this year. “Within the sector, our preferred pick is CapitaLand,” OSK states. The local behemoth’s multi-geography, multi-sector exposure, coupled with its recycling platform, ensures it is not over-exposed to any one sub-segment

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.theedgesingapore.com / No 502
Publish date: 09/12/11

K-REIT’s folly?

K-REIT’s folly?
Investors have reacted badly to K-REIT Asia’s acquisition of Ocean Financial Centre from Keppel Land. Was the deal a mistake? And, should rules governing the REIT managers be overhauled?

It seems that the market has spoken. OnDec 7, K-REIT Asia said its 17-for-20 rights issue of new units priced at 85 cents each was only 98.73% subscribed. The un-wanted 14.7 million units, representing 1.27% of the rights units, have been taken up by underwriters DBS Bank and United Overseas Bank.

The poor take-up of the rights issue is particularly surprising, given that the new units were actually priced at a 17.5% discount to their last traded price of $1.03 on Oct 17, when the cash call was announced. With such a steep discount, unitholders would ordinarily have felt compelled to take up their rights entitlements to avoid suffering a dilution of their interest in the REIT.

Yet, in the few short weeks that followed,units in K-REIT have slumped to 85.5 cents currently, just a hair’s breadth higher than the rights issue price and well below the theoretical ex-rights price of 94.7 cents. That significantly reduced the incentive for investors to come up with the cash for the rights units.

What turned them off? In October, K-REIT said it would pay $2.013 billion to acquire an 87.5% stake in Ocean Financial Centre (OFC)from Keppel Land, the REIT’s sponsor and parent. As part of the deal, Keppel Land would provide five years of rental support totalling $170 million. That brought the effective price down to $1.84 billion, or $2,380 psf. In addition, while the property had a tenure of 999years, with 850 years remaining on the lease, Keppel Land was only selling its stake to K-REIT with a 99-year lease.

Analysts panned the deal. For one thing, even with the equity-raising, K-REIT would end up taking on an additional $680 million in debt, which would push its debt-to-asset ratioto 41.6%, up from 39.6% as at Sept 30. More-over, some analysts feared that K-REIT was buying OFC just when the commercial property market was peaking and at a time when major financial institutions might be about to begin cutting their headcounts.

JPMorgan, for instance, downgraded its rating on K-REIT to “underperform” in a note that succinctly says, “Wrong time, wrong price”. The research house pointed out that K-REIT’s debt-to-asset ratio could rise as high as 45% in the event that its office properties were revalued downwards amid a slowdown. On theother hand, Citi figured that K-REIT’s distribution per unit (DPU) for FY2012 and FY2013 could be diluted by 2% to 3%, with any accretion only likely in 2014 and 2015. It kept its “neutral” rating on K-REIT, but stated its preference for other REITs.

Yet, things got worse during the EGM to vote on the acquisition and rights issue. During the meeting, comments reportedly made by K-REIT’s management team seemed to turn the spotlight on the issue of how REIT managers are remunerated, the extent of their independence from their parent groups and whether the interests of minority investors are adequately protected. Notably, chairman Tsui Kai Chong is reported to have referred to meetings between K-REIT and Keppel Land officials as “family talk”.

Market watchers and commentators then weighed in on the issue, suggesting, among other things, that regulators force REIT managers to change the way they are compensated. At the moment, REIT managers earn fees based on the value of assets as well as the REIT’s net property income (NPI). They are also paid acquisition fees when assets are acquired, even from their sponsor, and divested, even to their sponsor, as K-REIT did last year.

“In Singapore, the fee structures of S-REITs are skewed towards performance fees paid based on NPI,” says Lee Kha Loon, head of the Standards and Financial Market Integrity division of CFA Institute for Asia-Pacific. Of the 22 Singapore-listed REITs he has looked at, some 64% use this approach, he adds, “which excludes interest charges, therefore gearing charges have not been deducted in computing performance fees for the manager”. As Lee sees it, “a more equitable form of compensation” should be based on factors such as DPU growth and share-price performance.

The grounds well of opinion elicited a response from the Monetary Authority of Singapore, which said it “will consider issuing further guidance to the industry as part of our ongoing effort to enhance corporate governance in REITs and other listed entities”.

Is the apparent resistance to K-REIT’s rights issue and acquisition of OFC just a differenceof opinion between its managers and investors over the commercial value of the property? Or, does it really reflect an underlying problem in the way K-REIT is run?

K-REIT’s acquisitions
Ng Hsueh Ling, CEO of K-REIT’s manager, insists that the acquisition of OFC is a good deal for the trust. “The building is 80% leased to established corporations,” she says. “That will give the manager control over leasing the remaining space to tenants that are more suited to a REIT landlord; that is, credit worthy tenants who are able to sign long leases withmark-to-market rent reviews, as well as occu-py spaces that require no or minimal sub-division so as to maximise rental generation and efficient use of space.”

OFC is a 43-storey, Grade-A office development with 81,471 sq m of net lettable area(NLA) in arguably the city’s best location and linked to Raffles Place MRT station and the Marina Bay precincts. It has large floor plates of 20,000 to 23,000 sq ft, which appeal to up-scale financial institutions. The first phase of the development, comprising the office tower, is largely completed and 80% occupied. The second phase, which includes the carpark and retail space, will be ready by 2012.

Is K-REIT buying the property at the peak of the market? Should it have waited longer to see how the European crisis plays out? “As with any deal, there is never a right time,” Ng says. “During an impending market down-turn, many will say that it is not a good time to buy. On the other hand, during an impending uptrend, many will say it is not a good time to sell.”

Whatever the case, Ng says it was K-REIT that had approached Keppel Land with the proposal to buy OFC, rather than the other way around. And, this came about after she had spent some months looking into the tax advantages of holding the property under a limited liability partnership (LLP).

As for the income support, Ng says it was negotiated, as many of the leases were committed during or just after the recent (Europe-an) financial crisis, at slightly below current market rents. The income support, which canbe drawn over the next five years, will minimise downside risks to the cash flow from OFC, she adds.

Officials at K-REIT’s manager say the trust will be enhanced as a result of the acquisition. “K-REIT will be one of top-three largest REITs in Singapore, with the best office assets in the best part of the Singapore CBD,” says a K-REIT spokeswoman. For one thing, its portfolio will expand by more than 50% to some $5.9 billion. That will put it behind Capita-Commercial Trust, which has $6.1 billion in assets; and CapitaMall Trust(CMT), which has assets of some $8.5 billion.

Moreover, the average age of the properties in K-REIT’s portfolio will fall from 5.9 years to 4.4 years. With the acquisition, K-REIT’s lease profile is well staggered, withnot more than 11% of the portfolio by NLA expiring in any one year over the next five years. The percentage of NLA committed to long-term leases of five years or more will increase from 61.3% to 64.7%.

According to K-REIT’s offer document,unitholders will enjoy a higher forecast DPU of 7.16 cents for 2012 after adjusting for the rights issue and the acquisition, which is about 2.3% higher than the original forecast of seven cents for 2012, based on the REIT’s existing properties.

Analysts covering K-REIT aren’t taking these projections at face value, though. CLSA’s Wong Yew Kiang says in a recent report: “The deal is yield-accretive due to high income support. Excluding income support, we estimate the NPI yield for Ocean Financial Centre to be 2.5%.” He adds that office rents are deteriorating, and that there is now a heightened risk of negative rental reversions for some of the office REITs.

In fact, Wong sees looming risks for some of K-REIT’s other properties. Notably, its one-third stake in One Raffles Quay (ORQ), which it also acquired from Keppel Land with a rental-support deal, is susceptible to the same potential downdraft in demand for premium office space. And, worryingly, the rental support provided to ORQ by Keppel Land is due to end this month.

Wong also warns that it might be just a matter of time before K-REIT attempts to make another large acquisition. In 2H2012, Marina Bay Financial Centre (MBFC) Phase 2 isdue to receive its temporary occupation permit. The property is being developed by Keppel Land,HongkongLand and
Cheung Kong Holdings. Given how quickly K-REIT moved topick up its parent’s stakes in other properties it had developed, it might soon attempt to buy Keppel Land’s stake in this project too. But with its debt-to-asset ratio already above 40%, it will almost certainly need to do another cash call.

A year ago, K-REIT acquired Keppel’s one-third stake in MBFC Phase1 for $1.4 billion, or $2,400 psf, with rental support of $29 million. The property had just been completed and the purchase was partly funded by an asset swap of GE and Keppel Towers with Keppel Land. K-REIT’s stake in ORQ, which was also developed by Keppel Land, Hongkong Land and Cheung Kong, was acquired in 2007. The deal doubled K-REIT’s asset size, but not without its having to lean on its ultimate parent Keppel Corp for a bridging loan of $885 million as the global credit crunch hit. K-REIT later raised equity via a discounted rights issue,just as the world sank into a deeprecession

Today, K-REIT’s portfolio comprises seven commercial office properties located in Singapore and Australia. In Singapore, besides its one-third stakes in MBFC Phase 1 and ORQ, the REIT owns Bugis Junction Towers and a 93% stake in Prudential Tower. In Australia, K-REIT ownsthe 275 George Street property in Brisbane, the 77 King Street property and 50% of 8 Chifley Square in Sydney.

In 3Q2011, K-REIT’s NPI fell 16.3% y-o-y to $14.7 million because of the divestment of GE and Keppel Towers. However, its share of associates’ profits more than tripled, reflecting its interests in ORQ and MBFC Phase1. That raised its annualised DPU by 16% y-o-y to 7.76 cents.

he REIT structure
To what extent is the negative view of K-REIT that analysts have the result of its being backed by a major property developer? Should investors avoid other developer-backed REITs too? And, are there enough rules to protect the interests of minority investors?

Simon Ho, CEO of CMT’s manager, says there is already a whole gamut of rules to ensure that developer-backed REITs treat their minority investors fairly. “First, a trustee is appointed to look after all unitholders’ interest for REITs. It has a fiduciary duty to check on us to ensure that unitholders’ interests are protected,” Ho says. CMT’s trustee is HSBC Institutional Trust Services Singapore. K-REIT’s trustee is RBC Dexia Trust Services Singapore

Managers of REITs are also licensed by MAS, which prescribes a list of conditions aimed at protecting minorities. For instance, at leasta third of the manager’s board of directors must be independent directors, including the chairman of the audit committee. In addition, there are other checks prescribed by the Property Fund Guidelines.

“For example, if CMT were to buyor sell assets from or to CapitaLand or CapitaMalls Asia (CMA), it will be deemed to be an interested-party transaction (IPT). In the case of IPTs, we have to demonstrate to our audit committee that the transactions are undertaken on commercial terms, and this may include obtaining quotations from parties unrelated to the manager, or obtaining valuations from independent valuers,” Ho explains.

And, if the IPT is at least 5% of the trust’s net asset value, an EGM is required to seek the approval of investors, and the interested party cannot vote. “Unitholders therefore have the power to veto any related-party deal that they do not approve of,” Ho says.

He adds that the sponsors of REITs usually hold significant stakes, whichgive them an incentive to drive the income and DPU growth over the longterm. “CMA currently holds a significant 28.5% stake in CMT. This stake aligns the interest of CMA with that of the other unitholders,” Ho says.

It is also difficult to find strong evidence that REITs sponsored by developers are more prone to acquiring assets at unattractive prices. Infact, during the recent financial crisis, it was the non-developer-sponsored REITs that seemed more susceptible to failure.

MacarthurCookIndustrial REIT, for instance, listed with an asset size of $350 million. To make managing the REIT worth-while, the manager swiftly embarked on acquisitions paid for with debt. It was pushed to the wall when the financial crisis hit.

Chinese-Australian entrepreneur George Wang eventually acquired MacarthurCook in Australia and rescued the REIT, which has since been renamed AIMS AMP Capita Industrial REIT. Similarly, Allco Commercial REIT, another non-developer-sponsored REIT, was taken over by Frasers Centrepoint, and is now called Frasers Commercial Trust.

On the flipside, it seems that it isn’t just K-REIT that has made mistakes with its acquisitions. CMT, widely seen as the gold standard for local REITs, forked out $839.8 million for The Atrium@Orchard from the Singapore Land Authority in 2008. CMT eventually had to raise cash through a deeply discounted rights issue during the financial crisis. The Atrium@Orchard was valued at just $590 million in CMT’s books as at June 30.

REIT managers also doubt that changing the remuneration structure will reduce the risks faced by investors. “Pegging the manager’s remuneration to DPU growth looks attractive, but carries possible risks such as incentivising the manager to adopt a short-term approach towards managing the REIT for near-term DPU gain but in a manner that could perhaps sacrifice the longer-term property and financial fundamentals,” K-REIT’s Ng cautions. “For example, signing on short leases to smaller tenants may drive up rental revenue in the short term at the cost of increasing volatility to the future cash flow and uncertainty to the lease-renewal profile. And, taking on short-term revolving loans to enjoy lower interest rates may increase exposure to interest rate volatility.”

Ng adds that the acquisition of quality assets is a key growth driver for REITs and shouldn’t be discouraged. “The quality of the portfolio determines the ability of the REIT to pay out regular distributions on a sustainable basis. To ensure constant and stable returns to unitholders, the REIT’s assets need to be actively rejuvenated, either by way of the acquisition of a newer building, selling of an older building or asset-enhancement efforts.”

An astute combination of acquisitions and asset-enhancement programmes is the key to delivering sustainable DPU growth, REIT managers say. One reason CMT remains highly rated by the market is that it has asset-enhancement programmes underway that should ensure some measure of DPU growth all the way to 2014, without having to make any acquisitions.

Ho of CMT figures that the ultimate protection that REIT investors have is the ability to “vote with their feet” when they feel that their managers aren’t delivering growth.“Any REIT that consistently carries out actions that destroy value will find that investors will desert the mover time,” he concludes.

Indeed, a comparison of the forward yields of the biggest REITs listed in Singapore is telling. CMT has the lowest forward yield(for 2012) of 5.9%. Close behind it is CCT, at 6.8%. Suntec REIT is trading at 8% (after allowing for disruption at Suntec Mall, where asset-enhancement works are underway). Then, there is K-REIT. At the current price of 85.5 cents, its forecast yield is 8.4% (after the ac-quisition of OFC).


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.theedgesingapore.com / No 502
Publish date: 09/12/11

Starhill Global REIT: Offers a combination of predictable yields and an enterprising parent

Starhill Global REIT: Offers a combination of predictable yields and an enterprising parent

Plans by Francis Yeoh, group managing director of YTL Corp, to build a highspeed railway link between his company’s home base of Kuala Lumpur and Singapore may have been stymied, but investors can easily gain exposure to the vibrant retail scene in both cities through Starhill Global Reit (SG REIT). YTL is the manager of SG REIT and has a 28.7% stake in it.

SG REIT owns a portfolio of malls, offices and other properties in Japan, China and Australia, but its key assets are four prominent shopping malls: Wisma Atria and Ngee Ann City in Singapore and Starhill Gallery and Lot 10 in Kuala Lumpur. The two malls in Kuala Lumpur account for 18% of the REIT’s revenue, while the two Singapore malls bring in 60%.

SG REIT’s return on investment (ROI) is quite predictable. That’s because its two Kuala Lumpur properties are tied to master leases held by Katagreen Development, a unit of YTL. Under the terms of the 3+3 year lease from 2011 to 2016, annual rent for the first three years is RM72.1 million ($29.7 million), with the amount increasing to RM77.3 million in the subsequent three years.

Shares in SG REIT are down 7.2% this year, outperforming the Straits Times Index’s 12.8% slide during the same period. Lock Mun Yee, an analyst at DBS Vickers, notes in a recent report that SG REIT is now trading at an “attractive” valuation of 0.6 times its book value, versus between one to 1.2 times for its peers in the retail sector. Furthermore, it offers forward yields of 7.4% to 7.7%, which is “one of the highest” among similar REITs.

Lock, who has a “buy” call on SG REIT and a price target of 76 cents, is not the only analyst who is positive about the REIT. CIMB’s Tan Siew Ling rates the stock “outperform”, with a price target of 68 cents, as does Meenal Kumar of Standard Chartered Bank, who has an even higher price target of 80 cents. Macquarie’s Elaine Cheong has a “neutral” call, but gives a price target of 80 cents; Nomura’s Sai Min Chow also has a “neutral” recommendation and a price target of 68 cents.

SAVVY MALL MANAGER
Besides offering predictable and high forward yields, SG REIT also appears to be benefiting from YTL’s expertise in mall management. “We think Starhill Gallery has managed to carve out a niche market via a distinct tenant mix by signing on exclusive retailers such as Dior and Kenzo. To further differentiate itself, the master tenant has created an interesting and unique dining experience at the basement level, which has attracted many tourists and affluent locals,” states DBS Vickers’ Lock.

SG REIT spent RM25 million on an asset enhancement initiative at Starhill Gallery that was completed in September. The upmarket mall, located in the high-end Bukit Bintang neighbourhood, has a full glass façade, and new tenants include Rolex, Jean Paul Gaultier, as well as Hermès’s first standalone watch boutique, Hermès Horloger.

The money spent on Starhill Gallery has helped generate an ROI of 7%, or RM1.7 million a year, according to a report by DBS Vickers’ Lock. “We were impressed with the post-AEI look of Starhill Gallery, and our visit reaffirmed SG REIT’s AEI execution ability.”

While no AEI of similar nature to Starhill Gallery has been announced for Lot 10 yet, Lock notes in her report that there are opportunities to generate more revenue from the mall by converting some under-used parking space into retail space to increase its net lettable area.

For now, Katagreen Development has indicated that it is trying to tweak the tenant mix for Lot 10, by adjusting the proportion of beauty-and-spa-services tenants, who are now over-represented, and fashion retailers. The mall manager is also in talks to bring in an unnamed “popular new-to-market” brand that will take up 35,000 sq ft, or nearly 14% of Lot 10’s total lettable space.

Meanwhile, the Bukit Bintang area, as a whole, will benefit from the Sungai Buloh-Kajang MRT line, which is scheduled for completion in 2016. The line will be 51km in length and cover 35 stations. It will be linked to other existing transport infrastructure such as the KTM Komuter, LRT lines, as well as the various feeder bus services. Daily ridership is projected at 442,000 when the line is completed. Lot 10 is directly opposite the Bukit Bintang central station and an underground link will “possibly” be built, notes Lock. This will result in more shoppers visiting the mall.

The Malaysian government also has plans to build a network of covered walkways linking Bukit Bintang and the Kuala Lumpur City Centre (KLCC). “This will create a critical mass of 10 million sq ft of shopping space, which we think could help boost KL’s image as a shopping destination and spur tourist arrivals and spending over the longer term,” states Lock.

WISMA ATRIA’S TRANSFORMATION
Across the Causeway, SG REIT has not been sitting still with its prized assets. Wisma Atria, which is one of the two malls adjacent to the Orchard MRT station, is undergoing a “transformational” $31 million AEI first announced in February 2011 and slated for completion in September 2012.

DP Architects, one of the leading firms in this space, has been given the task of turning Wisma Atria’s 123m Orchard Road frontage from the current ocean-blue façade to a crystalline one. When completed, SG REIT expects the mall to attract an annual footfall of 27 million shoppers and generate an additional net property income of $2.5 million a year, or an ROI of around 8%. Lock believes that SG REIT will replicate its success with the transformation of Starhill Gallery at its Singapore property.

The upside for SG REIT will come not only from AEIs — which some investors feel is incremental at best. The REIT’s balance sheet has plenty of room to stretch. While SG REIT has an optimal gearing level of 45%, it is now only at 32%. This means that the REIT can borrow up to $700 million as “firepower” for use when acquisition opportunities come by. “We have not factored in any acquisitions in our numbers and expect [them] to be re-rating catalysts if they materialise,” writes Lock.

One thing is for sure, though. YTL’s Yeoh has a nose for a good deal and the stomach to strike a bargain at opportune moments. SG REIT was listed as Macquarie MEAG Prime REIT (MMP REIT) in September 2005. In October 2008, at the height of the global financial crisis, YTL paid $285 million for Macquarie’s 26% stake in the REIT and 50% of Prime REIT Management Holdings, the REIT manager.

Yeoh’s timing is impeccable. Coming out of the Asian financial crisis, he paid a bargain US$130 million for Lot 10, Starhill Gallery and the JW Marriott hotel from the struggling Taiping Consolidated in 1999. Two years later, he decided to buy up the company too. YTL has since renamed it YTL Land and Development Bhd and now owns a 64% stake.

Now, as Europe’s troubles send tremors across global asset markets, Yeoh might get another chance to purchase more high-profile properties in major Asian cities. That might keep him too busy to ruminate about his stalled high-speed railway project.




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.theedgesingapore.com / No 502
Publish date: 09/12/11

Hi-P presses ahead with relocation

Hi-P presses ahead with relocation
Written by Leu Siew Ying of The Edge Singapore
It has been a highly charged week for Yao Hsiao Tung, CEO of ­Hi-P­ International, which is listed on the Singapore bourse’s Mainboard. On Nov 30, some 200 of his workers at its production facilities in Jinqiao in Shanghai’s Pudong district went on strike. They barricaded the gates, disrupting production and delivery of raw materials and finished products. News of the strike went all over the world. Then, on Dec 6, the police moved in and arrested 10 protestors, effectively breaking up the protest.

“About 10 protestors were arrested by police today. The strike has stopped to a certain extent,” Yao tells reporters during a dial-in conference the same day. “The impact is small. Factory production and relocation have resumed. There is no material impact on production and delivery to our customers.” However, Yeo says about 50 diehard on-strike workers are still hanging around inside and outside the production facilities.

Yao, who likes to keep a low profile, says the unrest started because Hi-P was closing down the Jinqiao facility — one of five in Shanghai — and moving to Nanhui on the far side of Pudong, and about 230 out of the 4,100 workers at the Jinqiao factory went on strike to press for termination compensation because they did not want to make the move.

Yao says the protests were unexpected, as things had gone smoothly when Hi-P closed down a few other factories over the past year and the relocation was being handled in stages. Some factory equipment and 1,000 workers have already been moved to Nanhui, where the company has two factories. Besides, Hi-P has been working with its customers to build up their inventories in anticipation of the relocation.

Yao explains that the company has to relocate the factory, which manufactures household appliances and computer equipment, because the government has rezoned the site for commercial use. “We complied with all the laws and procedures and we got endorsement from the government and trade union but, on Nov 30, the strike happened,” he says.

DBS Vickers analyst Tan Ai Teng says, however, that the company had previously announced that it was closing the factory when its lease expired and consolidating activities at its Nanhui production site. “The company has been restructuring [its operations] because of the high costs in coastal cities,” she says.

New York-based advocacy group China Labor Watch says Hi-P has “crudely disregarded” the rights of its workers by not communicating with them on a decision that affected their lives and giving them no notice of the move. “They just suddenly announced their decision and ignored the workers’ rights and feelings,” executive director Li Qiang tells The Edge Singapore.

According to China Labor Watch, a Chinese worker is entitled to termination compensation equal to a month’s salary for every year worked, but Yao says labour rules and regulations in Shanghai do not provide for termination compensation in the case of a factory relocation within the city. “For Hi-P, the relocation is not just within the same city but within the same district,” he says.

What the company has offered the workers is to provide transport for those who have to commute to work and to pay them one hour’s compensation for the 1½ hours’ commuting time. This offer is on top of a two-month compensation for relocation.

Yao also denies that the decision to relocate was sprung on the workers, saying they were informed in batches from July. He says, “Some of the workers rejected our offer. They insist they want to leave. They want compensation, but we cannot offer compensation.

“We are managing 14,000 workers in China. We have to comply with the rules and regulations. If we set a precedent, we will have problems managing 14,000 or double or triple that number of workers in future.”

He also says he has offered workers jobs at another factory, which is also in Jinqiao and 10 minutes away from the affected factory. Although the factories make different products, he says, the manufacturing process is the same. So, the workers can work anywhere without having to acquire new skills. Yao expects the strike to end in a “day or two” because he has issued an ultimatum to workers to return to work in three days or be fired.

To be sure, the strike that hit Hi-P is not an isolated case. There has been a spate of strikes and labour protests across China as workers protest low wages or poor working conditions and as factory owners close shop to relocate elsewhere with lower costs. According to China Labor Watch, 7,000 workers protested last month at a Taiwanese-owned factory in Dongguan that was planning to relocate. “We will see an increase in relocation and strikes, although we do not have related data at hand. The reason is not only the rising production cost, but also the workers’ increasing awareness of their rights,” says Li.

According to DBS Vickers’ Tan, manufacturing companies have to reconsider China as a production site, as it is no longer a low-cost centre. Coupled with rising costs, manufacturers are also having to grapple with strikes and workers taking their lives, she says. Taiwanese iPhone maker Foxconn was hit by a string of suicides at its Shenzhen factory last year.

Teng says Hi-P has a large presence in China because of the customers it serves. “They have to go where their customers go. If their customers leave, they will also leave,” she says.

Yao says its two other factories in Jinqiao will not be required to relocate. In Nanhui, the company will hire more people and double its facility there in terms of space, capacity and workforce. “We expect to continue to grow our business,” he says.

Hi-P, which has been struggling with eroding margins, has been consolidating its manufacturing sites and now has 15 factories globally, down from 25 last year. In China, Hi-P moved out of Dongguan last year, leaving factories in Shanghai, Tianjin, Suzhou, Chengdu and Xiamen. It also has factories in Thailand, Mexico, Poland and Singapore.

The globally integrated contract manufacturer is involved in a range of businesses including stamping, injection moulding, spray painting and the manufacture of household appliances, computer parts and wireless communication components. Analysts say its customers include Apple, Hewlett-Packard, Research In Motion and Motorola.

In a Dec 5 research note, DMG&Partners’ analyst Edison Chen says that while there may be negative news from China’s manufacturing industry, it is “a necessary evil for Hi-P to speed up its lean manufacturing initiative amid escalating labour costs”.


Chen expects improved 4QFY11 results despite the strike and a possible solid FY12 if revenue growth continues. He has maintained a “neutral” recommendation on the stock, with an unchanged price target of 62 cents. Chen had earlier forecast a 140% q-o-q increase in net earnings to S$15.7 million (RM38 million) for 4Q.

This is because orders scheduled to be completed in 3Q were pushed back to 4Q, he says, and some of the one-off expenses such as factories consolidation costs and marked-to-market derivatives losses worth S$9 million will not occur in 4Q.

DBS Vickers’ Tan also does not expect the strike to have a big impact on the company’s performance in 4Q, as the relocation is part of the company’s restructuring and the expenses had been provided for. “So, if they have to pay a bit more to the workers, it should be incremental costs,” she says.

And even though production has been disrupted for a week, she says there will not be much of an impact either as December is not as busy a production period as September and October, when its customers were rushing to meet orders for the year-end festive season.

Shares in Hi-P have climbed 7.5% since Nov 30 after the company made a series of share buybacks. According to filings with the Singapore Exchange, the company bought a total of 213,000 shares on Dec 5 and 6. Its stock is now trading at seven times forward earnings, based on its market capitalisation of $570 million.




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.theedgemalaysia.com
Publish date: 13/12/11

标普魔力何处来?

标普魔力何处来?
BWCHINESE中文网 2011-12-09 星期五

BWCHINESE中文网讯,标普公司今年夏天猛烈抨击美国的政界人士未能解决美国的长期债务问题,并剥夺了美国的最高信用评级。现在,标普又在警告欧洲。

标准普尔在资本市场上发挥了举足轻重的作用。自1860年成立以来,标准普尔就一直在建立市场透明度方面扮演着重要的角色。当年欧洲的投资者对于自己在美国新发展的基础设施投资的资产需要更多的了解。这时,公司的始创人普尔先生(Henry Varnum Poor)顺应有关需求开始提供金融信息。普尔出版的各种投资参考都是本着一个重要的宗旨,就是“投资者有知情权”。在过去的一个世纪里,金融市场变得越来越复杂,业内人士千挑万选最终还是认定标准普尔独立、严格的分析及其涉及股票、债券、共同基金等投资品种的信息是值得信赖的。标准普尔提供的重要看法、分析观点、金融新闻及数据资料已经成为全球金融基础的主要部分。

直到本周,欧洲的命运似乎还取决于三大政客———法国总统、德国总理和欧洲央行行长的决定。但是现在还要加上出人意料的第四个———标准普尔评级公司。

据国外媒体报道,对标普持批评态度的人曾对其可信度提出质疑,因为它未能预见美国次贷市场的崩溃,而正是这次崩溃引发了2008年的金融危机。但是,标普对欧洲国家或者其他任何金融实体的信用度的评价仍然举足轻重。

标普已经扬言,如果欧洲领导人不能就应对债务危机的有力措施达成一致,标普就将下调15个欧洲国家的信用评级。

标普公司宣布这一消息后,欧洲国家的借贷成本并未上升。但是如果以后标普下调这些国家的信用评级,就可能迫使一些国家为其国债支付更高的利息,从而导致危险的债务激增,并最终让这些国家走向破产。

标普的警告让一些正在努力控制危机的欧洲官员大为光火,一些批评人士也颇为愤慨,他们认为标普在市场上发挥的作用太大了。



今年8月,就在美国就是否提高债务上限进行的旷日持久的争论刚刚结束后,标普公司剥夺了美国的3A信用评级,此举令标普一下成为外界关注的焦点。

标普通常关注的是一个公司或者政府偿债的能力。但是,在下调美国的信用评级的过程中,标普强调的是美国国会和白宫在如何解决美国长期债务问题上陷入的僵局。

政治因素的考量在标普威胁下调欧洲国家的信用评级中也发挥了作用。在周二的一次电话会议上,标普主管欧洲主权信用评级的负责人莫里茨•克雷默说,标普担心欧洲的决策体系陷入瘫痪。

克雷默周二对记者说,欧洲领导人此前的努力“不仅没有能够遏制危机,而且还进一步削弱了信心”。

一些专家说,标普现在之所以如此激进,是因为经过多次失误后标普正在努力重塑自己的声望。

坎伯兰顾问公司首席执行官戴维•科托克说:“标普正在努力找回自己的魔力。”科托克对标普评估财政协议背后的权力斗争的做法尤为不满。

芝加哥大学布思商学院教授拉古拉曼•拉詹说:“整顿欧洲的财政状况不是评级公司的工作。它们的工作是作为一个局外的观察家,告诉投资者所有变化对于欧洲债券的信用来说意味着什么。”

标准普尔近期大事:

标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)是世界权威金融分析机构,标准普尔拥有久负盛名的基准指数组合,其中美国市场为标准普尔500指数,全球市场为标准普尔1200指数。1975年美国证券交易委员会SEC认可标准普尔为“全国认定的评级组织”或称“NRSRO”。2011年4月18日,标准普尔把美国长期主权信用评级前景展望由“稳定”下调为“负面”,维持主权信用评级不变。2011年08月06日,国际评级机构标准普尔公司当地时间5日晚对外宣布将美国主权信用评级从“AAA”下调至“AA+”。标准普尔公司的母公司麦格劳—希尔公司2011年8月23日宣布,标普总裁夏尔马将从9月12日起离职,花旗银行首席运营官道格拉斯•彼得森将出任总裁。

责任编辑:Emily Chen

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: BWCHINESE中文网
Publish date:09/12/11

低估值时代,银行股该买(《钱经》杂志)

低估值时代,银行股该买(《钱经》杂志)
陈伟 时间:2011-11-21


银行股自2009年8月之后进入颓势,股价跌跌不休,而业绩却实现年均30%的复合高增长,银行股股价与业绩严重背离,让许多多年坚持价值投资的人们慌了阵脚。是投资理念错了,还是股市错了?如今,大盘蓝筹进入低估值时代,怀疑和恐慌在所难免,银行股值得投,但需待市场反转。

在史玉柱9月增持民生银行后,今年10月10日,中央汇金出手增持四大银行,随后两天大盘剧烈震荡。2011年10月12日,沪指击穿2319点这一两年内低点后迅速反弹,创出单日年内最高涨幅,金融股正是当天大盘启动的主力。A股银行股的平均市盈率目前为6倍左右,个别银行股市盈率甚至破5。在历史的低估值阶段,银行股入手时机悄然临近。

低估值时代,卖出银行股大错

同威投资创始人李驰对本刊记者讲到:“中国大盘蓝筹股已经进入低估值、低价格时期,以中国20年股票市场数据来看,这是之前从未出现的事情。”李驰投资股票10年时间资产增长了70倍,是国内价值投资者的代表之一。

银行股持续地下跌,出乎了坚持多年价值投资的李驰预想,“回想2008年唱多银行股时主要从防御性的角度出发,我们认为银行股不会破产,具有良好的抗跌性,之后银行股的反弹也验证了我们判断是正确的。不过今天我们也应该反思,中国金融股不断受欧美影响而下跌。盘子越做越大的同时,估值屡创新低。”

银行股一路走低伴随着房地产调控、通胀加剧、经济放缓和贷款坏账等等利空,这正是索罗斯的市场自我强化理论,在认识中改变现实,现实又反过来改变认识。如果长期投资人对价值投资没有深刻的了解,坚持持有金融股的过程是异常痛苦并饱受煎熬的。

李驰认为,目前的形势下,手中拥有现金者,买不买银行股都是正确的选择,但此时再卖出银行股或许就是个错误,“银行股下挫超出了我们的预料,可能有投资者怀疑自己以前的判断了。我们认为从短期看是股市的错,看看每年银行业绩百分之四五十的增长,就算是下跌,银行股的估值不可能再从5倍跌到2.5倍。从长期来看股市还是对的,估值迟早会回到合理的区间去。坚守的价值投资者依然是正确的。”

对于银行股的下跌,私募高手花荣给出的答案比较简单,他认为银行股下挫比较正常,整个银行板块的走低与股市熊市背景是匹配的。银行股凸显低估值诱惑,投资银行股更多应该遵从自己的理念和投资风格。

“不同的投资者有不同的投资偏好。如果我有100万,不会买银行,因为我有自己的投资风格和偏好。在股市低迷时,有重要的大盘股(包括国际版开设)发行上市,市场可能会出现保驾护航性质的配合行情,这时可以针对当时强势股炒超级短线。其它时间,市场已低迷调整为主,可多留心股指期货。”花荣说。

业绩稳定,银行股没问题

汇金入市以后,李驰对短期内股市走势还是比较乐观的。股市对诸多负面因素都已经有所反应,如没有更多利空出现,大盘股尤其是金融股现阶段有一定反弹也是可期的。“但需要不断有利好因素出现,否则股市反弹后还可能有反复。”

的确,房地产贷款、政府融资平台、中小企业贷款都是隐藏在银行股里的定时炸弹,不良贷款不落地,银行股仍然是烫手山药。事实上,银行业近年来高速发展得力于国内存款率和净息差较高带来的轻松赚钱效应。从业绩来看,国内利率市场化将是一个逐步推进的过程,今后几年中国银行业的净息差仍将维持在较高水平。同时,非息收入在结算和银行卡等业务的推动下,仍有较大发展空间,银行业利润增长有较高的确定性。

中银国际银行分析师袁琳认为,目前市场对银行利润增长前景的质疑,主要是由对资产质量的担忧导致。

袁琳分析,地方债和企业贷款最终都通过政府补助、税收减免等财税政策措施以及银行后续资金支持缓解危机。因此,平台贷款问题在未来几年大规模集中爆发导致银行不良大幅上升的可能性不大,而更有可能被逐渐长期化。

在中央政府、地方政府和开发商的博弈下,未来房地产市场的走势存在不确定性,并可能对银行的资产质量产生负面影响,但从目前的情况来看,还远没有到严重恶化的程度。针对房地产调控对银行坏账的压力,银监会主席助理阎庆民表示,银行可以承受房价下跌30%。

民族证券银行分析师张景对本刊记者说:“银行业受宏观经济影响较为明显,上半年虽然业绩增长显著,但业绩毕竟是过去时,银行业受去年以来政策调整较大,连续的提存和加息,导致市场资金面骤然紧张,银行股的启动需要大量资金支持,一旦市场资金缺乏,银行股上涨自然无望。而且由于经济预期增长放缓,在炒作预期的影响下,投资者对银行股更不报希望。”

银行股的投资价值,她认为目前银行股坏账率低于1%,处于历史最低水平,未来如果经济不发生硬着陆,出现大幅坏账的可能性并不大,不过也不排除坏账增加可能性。目前银行股处于历史低估值附近,存在阶段性反弹的机会。银行板块当前市盈率仅为6倍,对监管政策、不良贷款等负面信息有了较为充分的反映,估值具有较高的安全边际。在外围经济疲软、形势尚未明朗时期,银行板块中期业绩靓丽和低估值优势封杀了股价大幅下跌的空间,存在阶段性的估值修复机会。但受制于从紧的货币政策和资金面的因素,系统性上涨机会未定。

等待市场反转,银行股该买

上半年私募冠军数君投资总监刘宏毫无保留地表露银行股应分而食之的观点。刘宏表示,今后最大的机会在于低估值的板块,低估值的大盘蓝筹股,以银行为代表。“因为大盘蓝筹股和银行股不起动的话,市场还将处在弱市当中。如果市场转强,一定会有战略性的资金部署,这些资金往往是以中长线或者长线为代表,他们的进入肯定最关注真正有投资价值的股票。”

刘宏对今后市场的预测与李驰不谋而合。他们认为,市场的重心可能慢慢会抬高,但题材股、概念股,将是一个挤泡沫的过程。大盘蓝筹股、银行股权重很大,所以在这个过程中,整个市场在抬高。投资者的心态会对市场形成一种反馈,当大家看到中小股在跌,大盘股在涨时,市场的信心会可能就此发生变化,从而促成市场气氛的转变。实际上真正的机会从现在来说,就是这种大盘蓝筹股,特别是银行股。

一个不争的事实,中国二级市场的普通投资者秉承价值投资理念,持有中国银行业的蓝筹股,却从来没有获得价值投资应有的回报。真正在银行股获利也都是在一级市场持股的机构,主要为国外的机构和中国社保、汇金等。也可以看到,从新加坡主权基金淡马锡对国资银行的获利,也是建立在二级市场低价介入和长期持有的基础上。

从长期来讲,银行业ROE可持续水平仍在14%至15%以上,可为投资者带来较高的股息率以及年均10%以上的净资产增长,具有良好的投资价值。一旦市场反转,银行股投资价值即显。

就像李驰所说:“从经济发展的历史来看,金融行业里有存活下来最多的百年老店,所以目前做中国的银行股东是错不了的。”



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 同威Copower
Publish date: 21/11/11

Singapore Equities Expected to Bottom in Q2 2012




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date:07-12-11

Martin Lau: Cautious on China in 2012, Consumption Drives Growth



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date:13-12-11

中国股市诈骗犯为何多?

中国股市诈骗犯为何多?
BWCHINESE中文网 作者:张二寅 2011-12-02 星期五

2011年11月28日,深交所推出《关于完善创业板退市制度的方案(征求意见稿)》,向社会公开征求意见。其中包括新增“连续受到交易所公开谴责”和“股票成交价格连续低于面值”两个退市条件,取消“退市风险警示处理”方式等五大亮点。创业板现行退市条件主要包括连续亏损、净资产为负、审计报告为否定意见或拒绝表示意见等11项。

有了这样的退市制度,是不是中国股市就能变得圣洁起来呢?

创业板10月30日迎来开板两周年,曾被寄予“厚望”的创业板,在圈走1936亿元资金之后,给资本市场和股民留下的却是一个“破发”遍地、上市公司良莠不齐、制度创新几近停滞的“烂摊子”。

主板市场则需要回顾一下中国证券历史。

在上个世纪90年代,大批国企亏损严重,三角债普遍,财政难以为继,于是政府清理债务,财政扔包袱,国企开始向银行借钱,后来,银行也不堪重负,此刻股市应运而生,国企改制上市,吴敬琏的“靓女先嫁”粉墨登场,成为国企的救命稻草,银行在剥离了3.6万亿不良贷款后也加入了抢食行列,纷纷提款变现。

数据统计,从1990年末到2010年末,A股累计融资高达4.3万亿元,但现金分红总额约1.8万亿元,分给普通投资者的红利更少,只有区区5400万元,收益率只有十万分之一,而09年中国远洋一家亏损即达到75亿元,引入的战略投资者却收益客观,最近三年外资股东抛售中资银行股份套现总额已达2230亿港元,另有33家企业21年来从未分红。

而在二级市场上,会计造假、内幕交易、老鼠仓、股评欺诈层出不穷,屡禁不止,人民日报质问:如何回报九成股民亏损?

托普软件、银广厦、赵笑云、德隆系、中天勤,一个个让中国股民刻骨铭心的名字,在付出了血的代价后,*、ST、负资产、垃圾股仍然大行其道,招摇撞骗,而对股民的赔偿要求则先是拒绝立案,随后就是拖,直到过了诉讼时限,银广厦的惊天诈骗也没有谁拿出真金白银,只是公司送股,让股民从二级市场上拿回来。

这让人想起了琼民源造假,通过中关村重组,以更大的规模圈走更多的钱。

二级市场就是唐僧肉,中国各路妖魔都要咬一口才行,证监会如佛祖:你不下地狱谁下地狱?救人一命,胜造七级浮屠啊。如果谁不幸碰上造假欺诈地雷,证监会只能表示遗憾,因为自己已经教育了投资者:投资有风险,入市要谨慎!

根据吴敬琏先生的靓女先嫁论,一家频临破产的公司,完全可以通过美化包装,拉来贷款,调高前期利润,疏通会计事务所,获得优美的财务报表,攻克证监会专家委员会,与二级市场大机构订立利益共享联盟,跳空高开家常便饭,送股配股增发趁热打铁,在受限股派发完毕后,圈钱程序即告结束,关联交易转移资产,掏空上市公司,然后揭露黑幕英雄出场,败絮尽现,于是亏损、重组、乃至今天的退市。

就是这批人,拿着关联交易转移来的资产,再次注册公司,再次重复上面的程序,再次退市,子子孙孙无穷尽焉。

请问证监会,退市制度的如此漏洞是不知?还是默许纵容?

仅依赖会计师、律师、专家委、股评家的道德血液能让满身污垢的中国股市凤凰涅槃?造假、制假、信用崩溃、道德滑坡恰恰是这些人无视法律,更何况有明显的制度漏洞,他们焉能不钻?

美国这方面做的很好,高盛的欺诈被处以高额罚款,对于没有职业操守的从业人员则痛下杀手,金岩石被美国金融业监管局取消职业资格,但回到中国,摇身一变却成了国金证券首席经济学家,被海内外媒体誉为“索罗斯的中国门徒”、“纳斯达克市场的活字典”。

要防止股市成为诈骗犯的场所,就必须将赔偿制度立于退市之上,上市公司从二级市场圈来的钱必须加以严格监管,防止原始股东以次充好摊薄资本公积金,由于分红回报极其有限,其累积的净资产必然越来越高,为了避免关联交易掏空转移资产,规定亏损净资产最高值的15%为限,一旦触发该限值,公司即退市,并赔偿二级市场股东。

如净资产清算账面价值与市场价值相差较大,则追究会计事务所的审计责任,并吊销其职业资格,处以罚金,严重的须负刑事责任。证监会所获罚款应用于设立小股东维权赔偿基金,其财务公开透明,接受社会监督。

对财务造假、恶意圈钱的公司法人应负无限清偿责任,并将其投入监狱。

如此可以解放了证监会专家委,在这样的权利义务对等的情形下,公司不会拼命谋求上市,也就不会发生行贿受贿的故事,真正实现由审核制到备案制的转变,从而保护了这群人。

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: BWCHINESE中文网
Publish date: 02/12/11

曾淵滄教路:中央放水保密做得好 提供期權炒作機會

中央放水保密做得好 提供期權炒作機會
股友們望穿秋水,一等再等的「微調」終於正式出現了,十一月三十日,人民銀行宣布,從十二月五日開始減銀行存款準備金比率0.5%,很「湊巧」地,美國、英國、加拿大、瑞士、日本、歐洲等中央銀行也在十一月三十日宣布建立臨時雙邊互換掉期安排來提供流動性,同時降低美元互換掉期定價50點子,很明顯的,中國人民銀行的行動是配合多國央行的集體行動。

這一回,保密工作做得好,十一月三十日那一天,恒指還大跌呢,上述救市行動是股市收市後宣布的,十二月一日恒指急升1,000點,成交也大升900億。

內銀股趁調整入市
很明顯的,減銀行存款準備金的最大得益者是銀行業,內銀股今年的表現遠輸大市,十二月一日那一天,多隻內銀股一天之內急升10%以上。當然,這與之前過度沽空而不得不平淡倉的行動有關,不過,無論如何,斬完淡倉之後,如果內銀股因此而出現調整的話,每一次調整都是入市機會。

中國人壽(2628)很肯定也是另一隻會得益的股,今年,國壽的股價跑輸大市,主因就是內地股市表現不佳,國壽持有大量內地股票而受連累,而內地股市表現不佳的原因就是人民銀行收緊銀根所致。

除了內地銀行股、人壽、保險股外,房地產股也值得留意,不過仍得小心選擇,人民銀行減存款準備金比率會提高人們買樓的興趣,這是心理支持力。不過,相信那些打壓樓市的措施短期內仍未能取消,樓價太高是政治問題,不會太早放鬆控制與打壓。

製造業壓力仍大
製造業股則依然得面對相當大的壓力,因為美國及其他央行的貨幣互換掉期安排並沒有真正直接解決歐債問題。多個歐洲國家的國會已透過大幅削減政府的福利,節約開支的結果是全民消費減少,這一定會影響製造業的業績。

十一月三十日是人民銀行在過去三年來第一次宣布削減銀行存款準備金,今後會不會再減是很關鍵的,目前的銀行存款準備金比率是很高的,減0.5%不算多,因此,今後會不會再進一步放鬆銀根是更重要的,除了減銀行存款準備金之外,會不會減息是另一個重要的調控指標。

過去,中央財經政策在公布前往往消息漏出,股市在消息公布前已有所動作,這一回,保密工作做得好。因此今後有關的財經消息也將會是突然的出現,這製造了一些炒作期權的機會,有興趣者不妨好好地學習期權的炒作運作方法。


輯錄自 432期 Book A 【曾淵滄教路】



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 東周刊/
Publish date: 06/12/11

李驰:理性投资 淡市出击




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 优酷视频
Publish date: 2008-7-26

《亚洲经营者》 马来西亚航空CEO_Idris Jala

20080316《亚洲经营者》 马来西亚航空CEO_Idris Jala(上)




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 优酷视频
Publish date: 16/3/08

巴菲特买入IBM的奥秘

巴菲特买入IBM的奥秘
http://www.sina.com.cn 2011年12月03日 01:22 第一财经日报微博
  刘建位

  历史上从不投资科技股的巴菲特,2011年突然买入IBM公司107亿美元股票,这引起了极大的质疑。

  巴菲特11月14日接受CNBC访问时,记者问:“这次投资IBM是不是完全改变了你研究科技股的基本原则了呢?”

  巴菲特回答:“我关注研究所有股票,但我研究的结论是,大部分公司我根本无法预测它们未来的经营发展前景。”

  其实巴菲特选股并不限制什么行业,他只选择自己能够理解的可以确定未来长期具有可持续竞争优势的优秀企业。

  巴菲特1999年给《财富》杂志写的文章中说:“对于投资来说,关键不是确定某个产业对社会的影响力有多大,或者这个产业将会增长多少,而是要确定任何一家选定的企业的竞争优势,而且更重要的是确定这种优势的持续性。那些所提供的产品或服务具有强大的竞争优势的企业能为投资者带来满意的回报”。

  巴菲特解释自己107亿美元重仓买入的主要原因是看重IBM强大的可持续竞争优势:“(阅读年报之后)我到我们伯克希尔下属的所有公司进行走访,实地调研这些公司的IT部门是如何运作的,为什么他们会做出那些历史上的采购决策。调研之后我了解到,IBM公司在IT部门中具有什么样的地位,为什么IBM公司能够拥有这样的优势地位和这样的客户黏性等等一系列非常突出的特点,这让我对IBM公司有了和过去完全不同的看法。”

  第一,巴菲特认为IBM过去50年一直具有强大的竞争优势

  记者又问:“那么你研究之后是不是认为,IBM更大程度是一家服务公司而不是一家硬件和软件公司,几乎不再是一家高科技公司?”

  巴菲特回答:“IBM是一家帮助企业IT部门把自己的工作做得更好的公司。”

  巴菲特早在50年前就做过一家公司,直接与IBM进行业务竞争,这段经验让他深切体会到IBM的竞争优势地位有多么强大:“50年前我和IBM进行业务竞争。也许你不相信,当时我是一家科技企业的董事会主席。当时的计算机要使用无数的穿孔卡片。1956年IBM签署了一份和解协议,被迫放弃一半的生产能力。我的两个朋友,一个是律师,另一个是保险代理人,在报纸看到这个消息,决定进入计算机卡片业务,他们拉我一起合伙。我们的工作非常杰出,建成一个很好的小型工厂。但是,每次我们来到一个地方,推销我们生产的计算机卡片,价格比IBM更低,交付比IBM更加快捷,可是那些采购人员总是用这句话拒绝我们:没有人曾经因为买了IBM的东西而被解雇。我想我们可能听到这句话有一千多次。

  IBM强大的竞争优势主要反映在两个财务指标上:一个是超高的产品毛利率,从2001年37%提高到2010年的46%;另一个是超高的净资产收益率,从2001年16%到2010年提高4倍增长到64%。

  第二,巴菲特认为IBM强大的客户黏性使其竞争优势具有长期可持续性

  巴菲特在采访中说,自己特别欣赏IBM非常突出的客户黏性。

  “我们都会聘请一家特定的会计师事务所进行审计,我们也会聘请一家特定的律师事务所。这并不意味着我们每时每刻对它们做的每件事情都很满意,但是对公司而言,更换会计师事务所和律师事务所是一件很大的事。你知道我们伯克希尔下属100多家公司中,有几十个IT部门。尽管我本人根本不知道这些IT部门是如何运作的,但是我们走访了这些IT部门,和他们交流,结果发现,他们和供应商非常紧密地合作。这并不意味着不能更换供应商,但是这确实意味着供应商有很大的延续性。最近几个季度,IBM在全球40多个国家的业务收入都保持了两位数的高增长。我可以假设一下,如果你在世界上的某一个国家,你准备发展你们公司的IT部门,那么你选择和IBM合作肯定要比和其他很多公司合作要感觉放心得多。”

  巴菲特做的是长期投资,所以特别重视公司长期发展的稳定性,而强大的客户黏性是公司业务保持长期稳定发展的关键。从财务数据来看,过去10年IBM每股营业收入和每股EBITDA的年复合增长率分别为6.2%和14.4%。最近几年,每股收益增长都超越华尔街预期。

  巴菲特称这种难以替代具有巨大客户黏性的产品和服务具有“经济特许权”(economic franchise):“一项经济特许权的形成,来自于具有以下特征的一种产品或服务:(1)它是顾客需要或者希望得到的;(2)被顾客认定为找不到很类似的替代品;(3)不受价格上的管制。以上三个特点的存在,将会体现为一个公司能够对所提供的产品与服务进行主动提价,从而赚取更高的资本报酬率。”

  喜诗公司是美国最著名的巧克力企业。巴菲特经常以喜诗巧克力做为经济特权的产品典范:“假设你听售货员说喜诗巧克力卖完了,但老板推荐一种无品牌的巧克力。如果你宁愿再步行穿越一条街去购买一块喜诗巧克力;或者说,一块喜诗巧克力让你愿意为它比购买无品牌的巧克力或其他类似产品多付5分钱,这正是经济特权的价值”。

  个人客户宁愿买贵的喜诗巧克力,和企业客户宁愿购买更贵的IBM公司的IT服务,是一样的道理。而这种经济特许权正是这两家企业长期保持稳定增长的关键。巧克力不吃还可以,但现在的企业IT系统一出大问题就会让整个公司陷入瘫痪。

  (作者为汇添富基金公司首席投资理财师,本文仅为个人观点,并非任何劝诱或投资建议。)



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 新浪财经
Publish date: 03/12/11

Singapore Technology Awaiting dawn (DBSV)

Singapore Technology
Awaiting dawn
• Near term datapoints will remain weak and stocks could stay listless till 1H12. But, some may rebound earlier on re-stocking/pent up demand
• Sharp earnings cuts and –1SD valuations have priced in major headwinds; downside looks limited
• Watch out for bargain hunting opportunities in early 1H12 for stocks with poised for healthy rebound and strong fundamentals

Going to get worse before getting better after 1Q12. 4Q11 would be bad, partly affected by delivery disruptions caused by the floods in Thailand in mid Oct, especially the HDD-related companies.1Q12 could be worse, as on top of a low season, the impaired supply chain could further depressed volume if inventories have dried up but production facilities are not yet restored or replaced by other sources. For companies less affected, volumes could rebound as early as Feb/Mar if restocking or pent up demand turns out stronger than expected.

Sharp earnings cuts and -1SD valuations have priced in caution => expectation is now low on the sector. Although still above 08/09 trough, most stocks have been sold down to -1SD PE and P/BV from historical mean. Coupled with 15% cut in FY11 EPS YTD, we believe current prices have priced in major headwinds. Barring a global recession, we do not expect valuations to head lower to global financial crisis (GFC) levels like in 2008/09. However, weaker USD will continue to dampen reported earnings.

Accumulate stocks poised for rebounds and strong balance sheets as share prices bottom out in early 1H12. The tech sector could remain listless in early 1H12 given uncertain demand and volatile market. But, the cyclical tech stocks could perk up quickly when recovery gets under way. With lower risks now, investors can look to accumulate when the sector hits bottom sometime during 4Q11 results reporting season. Top on our lists would be stock with good fundamentals and those poised to rebound quickly from spillover demand in the aftermath of the Thai flood situation. Within our coverage, potential candidates are Venture, Broadway and World Precision.

2011 has been a tough year for tech
It just keeps getting worse… The sector was continuously hammered by a series of unfortunate events: from weak consumer spending and volatile business trends in general to supply chain disruptions firstly caused by the Japanese nuclear crisis in April and later, the flooding in Thailand in October. As we had expected when formulating our 2011 outlook, further weakening of USD against Asian currencies and rising labour costs also dragged down operating results. The FSST Tech was one of the weakest market averages, down 42% versus 14% for the STI. The US-tech laden Nasdaq held up very well, up 2% YTD, as was the Hong Kong Tech. We believe Spore tech had fared a lot worse mainly because of the sector’s limited exposure to Apple products which was almost the only bright spot within tech land besides smart phones. Our picks for 2010 were Venture (-29%YTD) and Hi-P (-36%) both of which outperformed the FSST Tech although still weaker than STI.

...you can write off Q4 too. Black Friday sales turned out rather inspiring for US retailers late November but we believe global economic woes will keep consumer spending in check and thus have maintained a bearish stance for the sector near term. Not surprisingly, several key manufacturers have issued bleaker financial forecasts lately, citing weakening demand for electronics. DuPont noted that “consumer electronics demand has further softened” when cutting its earnings outlook and Corning, a major glass supplier to the LCD market, reduced its outlook for a glass unit because of “ lower worldwide demand for cover glass for tablet computers”. More directly, chip companies Texas Instruments cut sales targets for the fourth quarter because of “broadly lower demand across a wide range of markets, customers and products” while Altera sees that its 4Q outlook “has deteriorated across all major vertical markets, including both large and small customers.” As we had highlighted back in Sep, OEMs would be cautious and stay as lean as possible going into the new year.

Over in Singapore, tech weakness is compounded by supply chain disruptions caused by the flood in Thailand, especially for the many HDD companies based in Singapore.

2012 may start slow and strengthen through the second half of the year
Early 2012 would be weakened by ultra low visibility and heightened caution. Apart from lowered corporate guidance cited earlier, anecdotal evidence from our conversations with companies and industry channels suggest very low visibility into 2012. Downstream customers are mostly focused on monitoring their inventory and taking cautious stands when placing orders. This is in line with leading indicators such as global chip sales, the semicon equipment book-to-bill ratio and capacity utilization outlook of chipmakers which are still looking mixed and poised to trend lower in the seasonally softer first quarter as reflected by further downgrades in the sectors.

The Semiconductor Industry Association reported Oct sales of US$25.7bn, flat from Sep and trimmed full year growth to a meager 1.3% from last year's robust growth of 32 %. Another market researcher Gartner lowered its worldwide semiconductor revenue projection to 2.2% in 2012, down from 4.6% growth previously, citing broad uncertainty in the market due to cloudy prospects in the Euro zone, Thai flooding and shaky consumer spending.

Upstream de-stocking still ongoing. According to Gartner, the semiconductor industry entered 3Q11 with moderately high levels of inventory. That, and the weakening economic sentiment have led semicon customers to review and cut back on orders quite aggressively of late. As a result, inventory correction in the semi space is expected to continue into 4Q11, before production and sell-through balance up by early 2012.

Taiwanese foundries and assembly and testing companies (ASE and SPIL), which account for a third of the global chip supply, were quick to trim capex for the fourth quarter and even into 2012.

Post inventory correction, chip will show micro growth of 1- 3% next year. Chairman of TSMC expects the semiconductor industry to grow by 3-5% in 2012, in line with the World Semicon Trade Statistics muted chip sales growth forecast of 2.6% in 2012 and Gartner’s latest forecast of 2.2% expansion, down from 4.6% forecasted previously.

Downstream inventory channel is leaner and re-stocking could fuel a modest recovery after 1Q12, especially for HDDrelated supply chains. As we go through the tech supply chain, we note that downstream companies have been disciplined with inventory management. As it stands, inventory levels are low even if holiday sales turn out to be weaker than expected. We feel that if OEMs substantially under-ship demand in the first quarter, we could see above seasonal momentum starting in the second quarter.

HDD will get dicey before getting sexy; we believe restocking will fuel above seasonal HDD demand from 2Q12 onwards. Prior to the flood, the HDD industry estimated total addressable market size for the December quarter to be around 180m, compared to approximately 176m units in Sep quarter. But with the entire industry now affected by the floods in Thailand, Seagate believes the industry can only ship between 110-120m units, not far off Gartner’s estimates of 130m units.

Based on current production limitations, Gartner estimates that a complete depletion of global inventories might allow for shipment of 130m drives in 1Q12, rising to 160m in 2Q12, 180m in 3Q12 and 200m in 4Q12. This adds up to a full year shipment of 670m drives or growth of 6% over estimated shipment of 630m in 2011.

Additionally, we believe drive shortage in early 2012 could push up ASPs or at least keep it firm. Already, channel inventories have remained lean at less than five weeks supply or even less than four weeks at times throughout 2011. Because of the Thailand floods now, there has already been a run on HDD inventories, suggesting the industry will begin 1Q12 with virtually no inventories and we believe that scarcity should drive up prices or at least keep them quite firm.

Seagate and those leveraged to its supply chain to benefit more. Even though Seagate’s factories have not been directly affected, external component supply constraints will only allow it to ship a drastically lower 43m drives in 1Q12, down from 50.8m in the previous quarter and 48.9m from same quarter last year. However, we understand from market sources that Seagate is capable of recovering production capacity to 55m in March 2012 if it can get all the components needed. This is almost 40% q-o-q jump from 4Q11 compared to a typical adjustment of between –4% to +10% in Q1

Western Digital, however, would need a much longer time to restore to pre-flooding volume because 60% of its inventory is from factories in Thailand. The world’s No.1 HDD producer with about 40% share of the global HDD market before the Thailand flood, said it will ship less than half the HDDs in 4Q11 and that curtailed shipments will continue into spring 2012.


Smartphone volume rising on continued penetration. Global smartphone shipment in 2012 is estimated to hit 680m units (+42% y-o-y) or penetration of 39.6%. Key to demand growth levels are: the potential for technological upgrades, as well as the burgeoning mid/low-end market and the expansion of data technology networks in developing countries. Potential technological catalysts include the adaptation of 4G/LTE technology, the integration of quadcore processors, which is about 5x faster than the dual-core processor used in the iPhone 4S, as well as increasing commercial uses of near-field communication technology.

Mid/low end smartphones by ASP (
Corporate/industrial segment would be muted as few businesses would want to upgrade or expand when economic outlook is this uncertain. This is reflected in the capex cutback of foundries as discussed earlier in the report.

Earnings outlook and risk: Expectations not high, downsides not drastic either
We have already slashed FY11/FY12 earnings estimates by 15%/20% over last two quarters. As we had cautioned back in Sep that tech results for the quarter would be ugly, and that earnings as well as share prices were susceptible to more downsides. Indeed, technology and industrials which covers some of the tech stocks in our universe, suffered the deepest cuts in earnings last quarter. Not surprisingly, the biggest culprits were higher wages which pressured margins and forex losses due to the highly volatile USD against Asian currencies. So far, we have slashed FY11 earnings by 15% and FY12 earnings by 20% in the last two quarters. If any more is needed, we expect the last wave of earnings downgrade to happen during 4Q11 results reporting season in Feb 2012. By then, all the bad numbers for the last quarter would have flushed out, causing industry pessimism to peak I it had not already did; provided there are no fresh catastrophe to worsen sentiment.

Street growth expectation for 2012 and 2013 are just 3%pts and 1% pts higher than our below consensus forecasts. Back in September, consensus earnings growth forecasts for FY11 and FY12 were 9% and 17% higher than ours. Post 3Q11 results, and after a round of significant revisions, the gap between our forecasts and street estimates have narrowed quite substantially. Excluding Broadway, DBSV tech growth forecast is 8% for FY12 and 16% for FY13, compared to consensus growth expectations of 11% and 17% respectively.

Key risk outstanding is weak USD against Asian currencies. Futher drepreciation of USD against Asian currencies is negative for electronics companies because USD is the functional currency for the tech industry. On average, as much as 80-90% of tech companies' sales are USD based, matched by a lower proportion of USD-denominated costs. Although USD/SGD has not changed by much from 1.2834 on 31 Dec 2010 to 1.2815 as of 30 November 2011, the interim fluctuations were huge, especially the spike up from 1.2044 in August to 1.3072 by Sep. Looking ahead, DBS economist expects the USD to continue to depreciate against Asian currencies in the quarters ahead. Hence, we can expect more forex impact on corporate results going forward.

Wage hikes less impactful in 2012 given high base in 2011; restructuring and relocation to lower cost sites in the past two quarters also helps mitigate the impact. Companies operating out of China have been dealing with wage hikes for years now. To combat rising labour costs which had hurt most manufacturing centric businesses in the past three quarters, companies have accelerate automation and their shifts to inner central region of China where wages are 30% lower. Hence, we believe the impact of wage hikes in 2012 would be less substantial.

Even if market conditions remain tough, tech’s balance sheets are strong enough to ride out the rough times. Tech companies in our coverage have little debt. If fact, many of them are in net cash position. Overall projected operating cash flows also looks sufficient to finance capex required although we believe companies can also decide to slow down expansion and try to get by with existing equipments during the lull.

Valuation and strategy: Look to accumulate on further weakness
Sector valuation have moved down a notch post 3Q11. Although tech valuations are still above 08/09 trough, most stocks have been sold down close to -1SD PE/PB below historical mean. At these levels, we believe market’s expectations are low and major headwinds have been priced in. Barring a global recession, we do not expect valuations to head to global financial crisis (GFC) level as in 2008/09. At this juncture, DBS economists’ view is for a general slowdown in GDP growth globally but not turned negative as seen in 2009. Hence, we do not see stock valuations rolling down to GFC levels.

Top on our watch list are Venture, World Precision and Broadway
Venture is a hallmark of good yield, strong fundamentals and likely to rebound quicker than others with no affected plants in Thailand. Although FY11 core earnings growth is going to slow down from 19% in FY10, Venture is a well-run company with solid fundamentals. Venture currently sits on S$233m of net cash (S$0.85/share). We estimate the company will remain in net cash position throughout our forecast period. Coupled with strong cashflow generation – Venture has generated S$142m of free cashflows for 9M11; the firm typically generate some S$200-300m of FCF is a normal year. Hence, we believe Venture will be comfortable to meet last year’s DPS of S$0.55. Before 2011, Venture has consistently maintained a DPS of S$0.50 for many years. At current levels, Venture’s yield would be as high as over 8%. Earnings catalysts would be volume ramp of new product launches released this year and contribtutions of modest business spillover as a result of the flood in Thailand. Venture does not have factories in Thailand but some electronics manufacturing peers with operations in Thailand have been incapacitated due to the floods.

World Precision’s disconnect between earnings growth and share price is unwarranted, but likely to correct only when market turns in favour of small cap. Meanwhile, stock pays 5- 6% yield. This leading stamping equipment maker in China is benefiting from the country’s industrialization and urbanization. Margin has also been expanding as the firm scale up the value chain to produce higher performance/high tonnage machines. Notwithstanding three quarters of strong quarterly earnings which consistently beat our expectations, stock valuations have been drifting lower or capped by market sentiment which has been negative towards small mid caps for some months now. We believe World Precision’s good earnings growth and cheap valuations will be appreciated when market interest rotates back to the small cap segments.

Broadway, a dominant Seagate supplier, is a good trade for the HDD bounce late 1Q12. Accumulate on pullback during YE reporting season. Notwithstanding worse 4Q11, we see a respite for Broadway in 1Q12 when its customer Seagate, estimate to account for 45-50% of total sales, resume operation with full strength. Being the key actuator arm supplier, and with extra capacity in Wuxi to capture additional requirements, we believe Seagate’s ramp up will provide a strong lift for Broadway verses a dreary 4Q11. We believe part of Broadway’s potential market share gain could be permanent, as some smaller rivals have fallen out because of the flood. Stock trades at 0.6x P/B with 6% dividend yield currently.

Hi-P has good exposure to smart devices but weakness at RIM takes the bite out of Apple’s crunch – will be good if we see new anchor customer to divesify risks and watch for inflexion point when operating leverage kicks in on stronger volume ramp. Although smartphone is still the more exciting segment now in terms of growth, we believe this market would remain volatile as competition is expected to be keener with product life cycles getting shorter. We feel that it would be better if Hi-P can find good new anchor customers to diversify risks from ether RIM ( which hasn’t been pushing out compelling products) or Apple ( more demanding product specs leaves little room of slippage). Within the non-wireless customers, Hi-P should see stable contributions from P&G, MEI and even Seagate, which accounts for c.5% of total sales.

Amtek’s pitch of high margin business takes time to materialize. For three quarters now, Amtek had posted disappointing results. Not because the business model is not feasible but more so due to customers’ delays and deteriorating macro outlook, all of which are not within the firm’s control. We believe that over time, as disruptions and uncertainties cleared up, Amtek would be able to regain momentum led by an experienced and strong management team. Meanwhile, we see little catalysts to propel the stock forward.

Creative and Meiban are potential candidates for privatization. Creative’s business is going no where at the moment although reported losses have narrowed over the last three quarters. However, we believe its cash hoard and a supposedly rich library of intelletual properties makes it a good privatization/M&A candidate. Creative exited Sep 2011 with net cash of US$146m and zero debt. This translates to cash per share of US$1.80 (S$2.36). At current share price of S$2.40, Creative is practically trading at cash value. As highlighted previously, we believe it makes sense to privatize Creative – not so much for cash extraction now – but to access and monetize Creative’s rich library of intellectual properties.

Meiban is another privatization target in view of its bombedout valuation ( 0.6x P/B), high net cash (S$55m cash is 37% of book value and 63% of market cap) and reasonably good shareholding (24%) by major shareholder and founder of the company. More importantly, Meiban has been generating very strong free cash flows – S$16m for 9M11 vs net profit of only S$6.5m within the same period. The stock has been paying 2 S cts DPS for the last three years and even during 2008/09. We believe existing cashflow can comfortably maintain this payout. Based on current share price, dividend yield is attractive at 8%.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: DBS Vickers Research
Publish date:15/12/11
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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