Saturday, December 3, 2011

分享锦集:为何没有第二个巴菲特?

分享锦集:为何没有第二个巴菲特?(下)●冷眼
分享锦集 财经 2011-06-25 17:54
是的,如果要成为第二个巴菲特,就非有巴菲特的“心法”不可,很少人能达到巴菲特的“心法”水平,所以很少人,甚至没有人可以成为第二个巴菲特。

但是,身为普通人的散户,也不必成为第二个巴菲特,只要能做到每年取得15%复利增长率的成绩,投资30年,到退休时就可以做到“财务自主”,做个有尊严的乐龄人。

身为凡夫俗子,我们只要坚持一些原则,脚踏实地进行投资,不投机,不取巧,就可以取得可观的投资成绩。

财富不能无中生有

这些原则包括:

1.一定要相信:财富不能“无中生有”,一定要有“价值”作为后盾,才能持久。没有价值的资产,就是“泡沫”,随时会消失。没有价值的股票,有如建在沙丘上的大厦,随时会倒塌。

2.没有成长的股票不会增值,成长时有时无,甚至负成长的股票价值飘浮不定,股价随之起舞,很难捉摸。

3.最好的股票,是盈利长期保持稳健成长的公司的股票,稳健但长期成长,胜过高成长但不稳健的股票。成长率不必高,只要年年取得15%以上的成长,就可以成为蓝筹股,值得长期持有。

4.价值“需要时间去创造,不能一蹴即成。果子需要时间成熟,树木需要时间成长,同样的,生意需要时间去完成。

生意是一种过程,从买原料,制成产品、销售、收账,每个环节都需要时间去完成,需要按步就班进行,绝无魔术可变。

你必须给时间让你所投资的公司去完成这个过程,为你创造价值,故投资宜长期,长期才能累积财富,并无捷径可循,快餐式的投资无法致富,快速致富根本行不通。

5.长期投资只需看股市大势,不必理会短期的波动,预测短期股市成功的巴仙率很低,不值得去尝试。

股市的运作有如一场球赛,你永远不知道对方会把球打向那一个方向。你不是他,怎么知道他在想什么?做什么?你又怎样能打败对手?

参与大马股市的,少说也有400万人,等于有400万种想法。庄子与惠子在濠梁上观鱼,庄子说:河中之鱼悠游自在,所以很快乐。惠子说:“子非鱼,安知鱼之乐?”(你不是鱼,怎么知道鱼快乐?)(庄子“秋水”)

同样的,你只是400万投资者之一,怎么知道其他399万9999名投资者在想什么?

股市只看大势即可

又何况世界每一个角落所发生的大事,都可能影响他们的想法,预测他们的动向是白费心机。故股市只看大势即可,不必理会短期波动,大势如潮汐,可以预测,短期波动如波浪,千变万化,根本不能预测。

股票投资,如果要取得大师般的超常成绩,就要有大师“心法”的层次,并非普通人可以做到,作为普通人,只要能取得超越大势的成绩,已属杰出投资者。

你若能坚持以上5原则,即使没有特出表现,要在退休时达到“财务自主”,绝对可能!

●冷眼 股市基本面大师


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 南洋商报
Publish date: 25/06/11

热钱出逃:看空中国还是拯救欧债

热钱出逃:看空中国还是拯救欧债
2011年12月01日 00:11
来源:时代周报 作者:王珏磊

连续四年正增长后,10月,中国外汇占款首度减少248.92亿元,市场人士惊呼,海外热钱开始出逃国外!

据中金公司最新的利率策略周报估计,10月热钱流出中国的规模大约为1800亿元。有分析认为,欧债危机令一些海外资金回流自救,海外资金出现“看空中国”的担忧,二者风云际会,共同构筑了热钱出逃的主要原因。

大量热钱逃逸

11月21日,央行公布数据显示,10月外汇占款减少248.92亿元,为近四年首见。上一次出现类似情况还是在2007年12月,当月外汇占款减少大约2300亿元。

所谓外汇占款,是指央行收购外汇资产而相应投放的本国货币,分析人士普遍以外汇占款与贸易顺差和实际使用外资(FDI)间的差额作为衡量热钱入境规模的主要参数。外汇占款罕见负增长,很可能就意味着热钱逸逃。

此前,单月外汇占款增量经常动辄增加上千亿元。今年8月,外汇占款还大幅增加3769.4亿元,但9月新增额猛降至2472.63亿元,10月更是出现负增长。

据中金公司最新利率策略周报估计,10月“热钱”流出中国的规模大约为1800亿元。而海关总署和商务部分别公布的数据表明,10月贸易顺差为170.3亿美元,FDI为83.34亿美元。而按10月31日人民币兑美元汇率中间价6.3233计算,10月新增外汇占款约减少39.37亿美元。由此测算,10月流出热钱293.01亿美元。

“这个估算并非无稽之谈。贸易顺差和FDI是增加我国外汇储备的,外汇占款减少的话,减少的额度与前二者相加,得到这个数字,就相当于热钱流出的规模。”广东金融学院中国金融转型与发展研究中心主任、联合证券首席经济学家陆磊告诉时代周报记者。

不过,在中国人民大学财政金融学院副院长赵锡军看来,外汇占款的减少并不一定意味着热钱出逃。“主要与贸易顺差相关,由于进口增长速度较快,顺差收窄。我国资金的流出也有所增加,现在一直在鼓励企业对外投资。另外,外资流入在减少,有些欧美企业现金流存在压力,需卖掉一些在中国的投资。还有很重要的一点是,用人民币进行跨境贸易和跨境投资的结算比例越来越大,这样就不用结售汇,不体现在外汇占款中。因此,很难就外汇占款的减少判断热钱流出。”

热钱为何大泄气?

在不少市场人士眼里,热钱出逃与外汇占款下降息息相关。而欧美债务危机,与近一段时间国际资本出现“看空中国”的担忧,也被市场认为是热钱出逃的主要原因所在。

陆磊表示:“外汇占款下降,表象是热钱出逃。原因首先是外部经济局势较差,整个金融体系流动性严重不足,资金不得不撤回救火。资金的输出方缺钱,只能将一些资产变现。随着欧债危机愈演愈烈,西班牙、意大利等国未来的融资成本都达到7%以上的利率,这意味着它们自己缺钱,需要资金回流。”

海外资金是否“看空中国”,陆磊认为,“世界银行和国际货币基金组织先后公布报告称,中国金融部门信贷投放过快,导致金融体系坏账有可能会上升,并担忧资产价格泡沫化,虽不至于引发系统性危机,但毫无疑问是个问题。那么在中国的资产价格是不是过高?是否该获利回吐?海外资本的确存在这方面的考量。”

我国贸易顺差的持续收窄,也促使热钱出逃。据外管局公布的数据,今年前三季度中国进出口“高开低走”,特别是贸易顺差延续2008年以来逐年递减的态势,今年前三季度缩小到1071亿美元,同比下降10.6%。

陆磊表示,“我国贸易顺差占GDP的比重,从以往最高峰的约7%,逐渐向2%-3%收敛。因此,海外资本综合考量,一是担心中国金融体系的问题,二是担心在中国的资产价格是否已过高,应该获利回吐了,三是关心中国实体经济的竞争力是否减退,在全球范围内主要体现在贸易顺差方面,这些担忧促成了海外资本主动从中国撤资。”

目前市场普遍不认为中国还有继续扩张流动性的能力,所以未来中国的经济增长率可能会有所调低,不会再像以往那样,形成旺盛的投资,进而拉动GDP达9.5%甚至以上的增长速度。陆磊还表示,“前三季度GDP增长还是9.4%,如第四季度乃至明年全年会出现9%以下的季度或年均增长率的话,毫无疑问就意味着中国告别自2009年以来的高投资、高增长、高货币扩张、高资产价格时代。这样,整个中国市场对热钱吸引力会有所下降。”

“欧债危机使海外资本被动撤资,‘看空中国’让他们主动撤资,两者交织,风云际会,构筑在一起,我们就看到了外汇占款的下降。”陆磊表示。

摩根大通中国区董事总经理龚方雄日前也表示:“中国过去几个月仍有巨额贸易顺差和外资直接净投资,在这种情况下,外汇占款反而下降,一个重要原因,可能是欧洲银行由于欧债危机蔓延,不得不紧缩信贷,而在全球撤资。中国现在面临的不是热钱流入问题,而是外资净流出问题,这与欧债危机息息相关。”

人民币升值空间逐渐缩小,近期甚至出现贬值预期,也使之前追逐汇差而来的热钱大为“泄气”,在某些市场人士看来,直接点燃了此轮热钱流出的导火索。

陆磊认为,“这是热钱流出的直接原因。在香港的无本金交割远期,即NDF市场上体现非常明显。我们模拟发现,NDF市场的涨跌与同期热钱的流入流出高度关联。它体现的是一个预期,即未来一段时间内人民币相对美元的双边汇率的涨跌幅度。最近这段时间,恶炒人民币升值,认为人民币应一次性跳高15%-20%,甚至更高的呼声有所减弱。热钱流入也相应减少。”

不赞同“好事说”

尽管此次是外汇占款自2007年以来首次下降,但据陆磊观察,这并不是近几年间热钱首度呈现流出态势。“之前还有过两次NDF的明显下行。2008年第四季度到2009年第一季度,由于全球金融危机,NDF明显往下走。在2010年年中,又出现了‘中国崩溃论’,当时,‘末日博士’鲁比尼宣称,中国的资产泡沫化已到了非常严重的地步,这还有什么投资吸引力呢”?

陆磊表示,“但当时资金流出得到了美国的‘帮助’,由于美国实行第二轮量化宽松货币政策,美元价值走低,于是热钱又回来了。这是第三次热钱出逃。这三轮,其实都是投资者对中国、国外这两种资金配置方向的相互比较和衡量。”

这轮究竟是资金的暂时性出逃,还是将持续呈现资金流出趋势?不太令人乐观的是,贸易顺差持续收窄的趋势,让资金的回流显得有些提振乏力。

乐观者认为,贸易顺差收窄,也让我国的国际开支更趋平衡。“我们一直在强调平衡贸易收支,调整贸易结构,不再过多地追求出口主导,而是希望增加内需、增加进口。因此,如外汇占款的减少对应的是我国贸易结构的改善、内需的增加、海外投资的拓展以及更多采用人民币结算跨境贸易,那就是一件积极的、有益的事情。”赵锡军表示。

如果仅就国际收支趋于平衡来说,可以认为热钱的流出对中国是件好事。但陆磊并不赞同“好事说”。

陆磊认为,“如果出现趋势性的热钱流出,意味着中国投资吸引力正在下降,它会引致一系列问题。比如说,应慢慢挤掉的资产泡沫可能会急剧收缩,出现货币危机与银行危机共同爆发的可能。人民币会急剧贬值,银行坏账会陡然增加,没有资本会自发地持有以人民币标值的资产,这是灾难。打个比方,就像上市公司,你希望你的股票是涨还是跌?过快涨肯定不好,它会超出你的基本面,但如持续下跌,就意味着投资者对这家上市公司失去信心。假如把中国看成一家上市公司,毫无疑问就是这个结论。”

此轮资金外逃,是暂时的还是趋势性的?陆磊表示,“如中国不扭转这种预期的话,它就是趋势性的,但也可能通过相应的政策,或者某些安排,使得这种负面性预期得以修正,那它就具有临时性。比如,短期内可以执行某些已有的外汇管理方面的规定,对热钱流出可能会有一定的扼制,而在长期来看,还是要在国内造成一些新型的经济增长点,来告诉海外投资者,我们的经济相对于美欧日来说还是有极强的吸引力。这样,热钱流出才不会形成趋势。”

热钱的出逃,显然也使国内流动性有所减少。下一步货币政策可能趋于宽松,成为市场的普遍预期。

“这是有可能的。外汇占款的下降,使得基础货币的增加量不会再像前几年那么快,央行在公开市场操作上,可能会由净回笼变成适度的净投放。此外,由于担心基础货币的收缩导致广义货币的收缩,决策层应该会在扩大货币承受方面有所作为,简单地说,可能会下调存款准备金率,让银行有更多的可贷资金,使得货币收缩不那么快。”陆磊告诉时代周报。

不过,北京大学金融与证券研究中心主任曹凤岐指出,稳健的货币政策取向仍不会改变,因为通胀、物价调整仍未到位,考虑到外汇占款负增长对流动性的影响,央行会在下一阶段继续实行信贷总量控制、结构调整的政策,对部分小微企业和农田水利等基础设施领域将有放松。

而对海外热钱这头“笼子外的老虎”,在陆磊看来,不应对热钱采取严格的处理方式。“在我国还存在资本管制的背景下,还是发现大量热钱流入,说明管制没用。恰恰相反,应把热钱的流出和流入当成宏观经济的指向标,据此来判断全球对于中国经济周期所持有的态度,进而采取相对灵活和审慎的货币政策,并且相应调整国内政策。也许这才是最好的态度。”


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 凤凰网
Publish date: 01/12/11

巴菲特致富的10条理财心得

巴菲特致富的10条理财心得
来源:凤凰视频 发布时间:2008-11-12 12:03




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 凤凰视频
Publish date:12/11/08

回温成盘中热股 低价股炒风再起?

回温成盘中热股 低价股炒风再起?
Created 12/03/2011 - 11:22

(吉隆坡2日讯)几家低价股在沉静一段时间后,今日又回温成为盘中热股,交投十分火热。

当中,最耀眼的是SYF资源(SYF,7082,主板消费产品股),其他之前因股价异动而受交易所质询的DPS资源(DPS,7198,主板消费产品股)和蔚世泰(Versatl,4995,主板工业产品股)同样大起。

受新大股东加盟的消息激励,SYF资源股价及凭单在周五成为盘中热股,个别写下31.3%和53.7%的惊人涨幅。

据悉,KIP集团的幕后老板拿督邱来雄(译音)及拿督王国梁(译音),各别买入SYF资源7.35%及7.28%的股票,成为后者的大股东。

SYF资源再飙31%

SYF资源之前宣布透过联营,在士毛月发展一项工业发展计划和商务发展计划。现在又有产业背景的投资者加持,崛为大股东,让SYF资源的前景再度受到投资者看好。

SYF资源股价走挺,凭单也子凭母贵,双双成为盘中热股。

母股甫开市便走高,扬升步伐凌厉,开盘后就一路稳定攀升,最后闭市报63仙,扬15仙,扬升幅度达31.25%。

凭单走势更是难挡,SYF资源凭单(SYF资源-WA,7082WA)劲扬53.7%,成为盘中热门股。

至于DPS资源(DPS,7198,主板消费产品股),则全日扬26.67%或4仙,报19仙,成交量更是高达1亿898万4600股,是今日场内交易最活络的股项。

DPS资源凭单的涨幅更加不遑多让,全日大涨45.45%,扬5仙,以16仙挂收。

另外,蔚世泰(Versatl,4995,主板工业产品股)今日走势未受昨日被质询影响,全日扬23.21%,或升6.5仙,报34.5仙,也是盘中的热门股。



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 南洋商报
Publish date:03/12/11

热钱外逃初现端倪 人民币告别单边升值



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 和讯网
Publish date: 02/12/11

巴菲特又食言:购入纸媒资产 曾言纸媒无生机 字号大中小

巴菲特又食言:购入纸媒资产 曾言纸媒无生机
来源 第一财经日报

“股神”沃伦·巴菲特还是华盛顿邮报的最大股东。
人们现在有些疑惑,81岁的“股神”巴菲特的头脑是否依然清醒?

继推翻“从不买高科技公司”的常年宣言、于今年大举购入IBM公司股票之后,巴菲特近日再次“自食其言”,投资了曾被自己鄙视的纸质媒体。

美国时间11月30日,巴菲特旗下伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司宣布,出价2亿美元购入奥马哈世界先驱公司,交易预计在12月底前完成。

“报纸有一个美好的未来。”曾表示过纸媒将不复生机的巴菲特改口,以此笼统解释为什么收购这张位于自己老家的报纸。

巴菲特说,自己小时候靠投递报纸赚了5000美元,这也成为日后伯克希尔投资的基础,“每天我会读5份报纸,包括奥马哈世界先驱报。”

除奥马哈世界先驱报外,奥马哈世界先驱公司旗下还有6家日报,以及内布拉斯加州和爱荷华州西南部的数家周报。

“掏钱读新闻多可笑”
早在2008年伯克希尔的年度会议上,巴菲特曾公开嘲笑纸质媒体的运营模式。2009年巴菲特在其每年的经典之作——“致股东的一封信”中写道,读者都转向了互联网等新兴媒体、出版商的利润在快速流失,“报纸是一种过时的模式,将持续亏损且不复生机。”

“大部分的报纸,我都不会买,哪怕再便宜!”巴菲特当时是这么说的。 由于以上言论,巴菲特一度饱受媒体责难,但仍不愿收敛刻薄:“让我们想象一下,有人提出了一个绝妙的主意:嗨!让我们砍下树木、买下昂贵的印刷机、再买几支卡车运输队,就为了让人们掏钱去阅读昨天的新闻——这多可笑!”

这多可笑?如今,巴菲特自食其言,准备花2亿美元重金购买了一份纸质媒体。除了1.5亿美元的现金外,伯克希尔还将为奥马哈世界先驱公司另外承担5000万美元的债务。

彭博社援引资料称,奥马哈世界先驱报位居美国报纸排名第49位,日均发行量13.5万份,周日单日发行量超17万份。目前,奥马哈世界先驱报是美国唯一的员工持有多数股权的报纸,员工持有其80%的股份,其余20%由Peter Kiewit基金会持有。按照计划,本月20日,持股的275名在职和退休员工将对该笔收购案进行投票。收购完成后,先驱报的原首席执行长特里·克勒格尔将继续留用。

“报纸有一个光明的未来,”巴菲特现在这么告诉奥马哈世界先驱报的员工,“它不会像过去,在很多方面纸媒都会做得比其他媒体更好。”

巴菲特总是有道理
2亿美元的出价实在不便宜。据彭博社资料,奥马哈世界先驱报是美国拥有最多雇员的报纸,光早、晚班编辑就有逾200名,这被认为是新东家伯克希尔的一个沉重负担。

伯克希尔公告称,收购先驱报不会对其总体表现造成什么影响,其2010年总收入为1360亿美元、利润130亿美元,投资分布在保险、公用事业、铁路、房地产、制造业及零售业等。

媒体并未列入伯克希尔的盈利来源中。事实上,伯克希尔旗下已有通讯社“商业资讯”,同时,伯克希尔也是华盛顿邮报的最大股东,约占有21%的股权,不过今年1月巴菲特退出了华盛顿邮报董事会。此外,伯克希尔还拥有纽约布法罗新闻。

巴菲特没有详细说明介入纸质媒体的原因及规划,尽管无数次地巡演、上电视节目以及出书讲解,但他的投资理念从来不为人真正理解。

资本市场还是投下了信任票,11月30日,收购《奥马哈世界先驱报》消息宣布后,伯克希尔A类股上涨4.87%,至11.85万美元。

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 一财网
Publish date: 02/12/11

欧洲危机会变得更糟吗?

2011年12月02日 07:54 AM
欧洲危机会变得更糟吗?
作者:英国《金融时报》专栏作家 吉迪恩•拉赫曼

事态还会变得更糟糕吗?我指的是特别糟糕的情况——像大萧条(Great Depression)或世界大战那么糟糕?按照我们这一代人所接受的教育,这种巨变只会在历史书上出现。

当然,眼下的欧洲有一种不祥之感。波兰外长本周一在柏林警告称(见今天FT中文网评论栏刊登的波兰外长西科尔斯基的文章《我更担心德国不作为》),欧洲已“走到了悬崖边缘”,这不过是最新的一个例子。法国总统萨科齐(Sarkozy)最近也发出警告:“一旦欧元崩溃,欧洲就会崩溃。在这块曾发生过可怕战乱的大陆上,欧元是和平的保障。”

欧洲政客们往往喜欢以战争威胁来示警,以此为他们钟爱的欧洲项目谋求支持。正常情况下,没几个人欧洲人拿这种话当回事。

相反,对于在和平与繁荣环境下长大的西欧人来说,战争的话题似乎注定是遥不可及的。在我所生活过的年代,虽然也有过起起落落,但情况似乎一直在稳步改善。纳粹被打败了;西班牙、葡萄牙和希腊的独裁政权垮台了;苏联帝国解体了;南非则告别了种族隔离制度。


在我们这一代人看来,和平与繁荣已成为西方社会的常态。因此,这也让我们很容易忘记,世界上大部分其它地区和我们不一样。最近读到一本相熟的中国学者阎学通写的书时,我很吃惊地看到这样一句话:“文化大革命中我们看到有些人被打死,所以对生活的残酷有些习惯了。”

但在过去的30年里,对于和平、繁荣与适度舒适生活的期待,已蔓延并超越了西方所专享的范畴。文化大革命时代的中国,已让位于购物中心和工厂时代的中国。而特蕾莎修女(Mother Teresa)时代的印度,也在一定程度上被IT革命时代的印度所取代。

全球化让整个世界看起来像是一个更安全、同质化程度更高的地方——亚洲和东欧新兴的中产阶级,欣然接受资本主义的舒适和价值观,正是这方面的体现。如今,冷战时期似乎要依赖核武器才能够保障的全球和平,似乎有了新的支柱——国际贸易以及对消费主义的共同信奉。

直至全球经济危机爆发之前,1997年托尼•布莱尔(Tony Blair)所选用的竞选歌曲《明天只会更好》(Things can only get better)似乎捕捉到了这个时代的精神。

然而,自2008年雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)倒闭以来,我们发现,事情的确有可能变得更糟。问题在于:能糟糕到何种程度?

欧洲遭受严重经济危机的风险十分巨大。主权债务违约和欧洲单一货币崩盘的威胁不断加大——随之加剧的,还有银行破产、普遍恐慌、深度衰退以及大规模失业的威胁。这给人的感觉像极了现代版的大萧条。

作为一个整体,欧盟(EU)是全球最大的经济体,因而欧洲的经济混乱必然会带来全球性后果。这可能导致贸易萎缩,并对全球金融体系构成威胁。

20世纪30年代留给我们的教训是:全球衰退会削弱民主,导致激进的新生政治力量的崛起——而在此过程中,会加大国际冲突的风险。

在上世纪30年代危机的现代版中,在经济动荡和欧盟解体的背景下,民族主义政客将登上欧洲权力舞台。随着全球经济形势的恶化,欧洲以外的地区也会局势紧张。亚洲权力平衡的转移将会加快——美国逐步衰落,中国日渐崛起。无论在中国还是美国,经济危机都将导致民族主义和保护主义势力有所抬头。

这些场景并非没有可能。不过,尽管有着种种相似之处,我仍无法让自己相信,我们正重返上世纪30年代。我认为有可能逃过这一劫,原因有以下三点。

首先,政客们非常清楚80年前我们错在哪里,因此他们有可能避免犯同样的错误。中国反复强调“和平崛起”的必要性,在某种程度上是因为对日本军国主义犯下的可怕错误了然于胸。

第二,还有一种似乎有些道理的说法——自1945年以来,主要强国和发达国家之间维持了66年的和平,这反映出的是一种文明的进步,而非世界史上的一段幸运周期。哈佛大学(Harvard university)教授史蒂文•平克(Steven Pinker)在近来出版的《唤醒心中的天使》(The Better Angels of Our Nature)一书中表示,人类正逐渐变得不喜欢战争,“如今我们可能生活在人类有史以来最和平的时期”。

最后,目前发达世界的富足程度远胜于上世纪30年代。遭遇经济崩溃时,人们虽然仍可能损失掉储蓄、工作和房屋,但不大可能落到一贫如洗的境地。因此,他们或许不那么可能倒向政治极端主义。2009年,拉脱维亚经济萎缩18%,但在该国近来选举中上台的,却是两个走中间路线的政党。在西班牙,失业率已超过了22%——年轻人的失业率更是高于45%。但在本月的选举中,胜出的还是一个温和的中右翼政党。


因此,尽管发生严重经济危机的风险已切实存在,我仍不认为,我们面临滑向战争深渊的风险。但或许,这仅仅是一个有幸成长于前所未有的和平与繁荣时代的人缺乏想象力的体现。

译者/何黎

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: FT中文网
Publish date:02/12/11

分析:中国“降准”发出了什么信号?

2011年12月01日 07:25 AM
分析:中国“降准”发出了什么信号?
英国《金融时报》 吉密欧 北京报道

中国在逐步收紧货币政策两年多之后,已启动新一轮货币政策放松,第一步是降低银行存款准备金率。

周三,中国官方宣布将针对所有银行的存款准备金率下调0.5个百分点。凯投宏观(Capital Economics)首席亚洲经济学家马克•威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)表示,此举“是一个信号,不仅表明政策制定者正在放松政策,而且表明他们想要大张旗鼓地这么做。我们将此视为中国政策立场出现了决定性的转变”。

此举显示,北京方面相信,它终于制服了曾经居高不下的通胀。中国的通胀已在7月份以6.5%的年率见顶,预计11月份将降至远低于5%的水平。

但此举也反映出各方越来越担心全球第二大经济体增长放缓,而且似乎表明政策制定者对增长的担忧程度远超外界此前的推测。此前,人们预计中国将从明年起放松政策。


迄今中国的国内生产总值(GDP)数据仅显示轻度减速,从第二季度9.5%的同比增长率,降至第三季度的9.1%。

但其它经济活动指标已开始描绘出一幅更令人担心的景象。许多分析师现在警告称,未来几个月中国的增长数据可能低得出人意料。

“中国经济放缓迄今是逐步的、温和的,但在未来两个季度,我们预期情况会糟糕得多,”瑞银(UBS)经济学家汪涛表示。“我们预计明年第一季度的GDP增幅将降至同比7.7%,环比仅6%。那将是2008年第四季度以来的最低水平,是非常剧烈的减速。”

类似预测已开始迅速增多。这些预测的依据是一系列显示某些行业的增长已失去势头的代表性指标。

海港货物吞吐量、国内货运量、发电量、乘客人次以及住房建设,均在今年早些时候出现较高增长后的降温。最明显的下降发生在发电量增长、制造业活动和乘客人次(商务旅行和家庭可自由支配支出的良好指标)。

中国将在今日公布官方的11月份采购经理人指数(PMI),预计该指数将降至50以下,表明中国制造业正处于收缩状态、而非扩张。

汇丰(HSBC)上周发布的中国PMI指数预览值显示,11月份前三周出现大幅下降,从10月份的51降至仅48,这是自2009年3月以来的最低水平。

尽管中国的海上货运量迄今保持在较高水平,但鉴于欧美这两个最大贸易伙伴前景黯淡,预计这种情况不会持续下去。

出口增长在近几个月保持相对强劲,但一些分析师预计,未来一两个月会出现大幅放缓。10月份中国出口同比增长16%,但威廉姆斯预计,出口增长已在11月份降至不到10%,并将进一步下降。

在开始浮出水面的有关中国增长的所有担忧中,最令人忧心的莫过于房地产市场崩盘。

在过去两年的大部分时间里,中国政府一直在试图引导房价小幅回调,但如果楼市发生崩盘,那将对整体经济造成严重冲击,因为中国经济增长在很大程度上依靠住房建设。

全国各地楼市的成交量已有所下降,大城市的房价已开始下滑。虽然建设规模的年率增幅仍高于30%,但开发商正在搁置许多新项目。

尽管有多个指标显示,在中国这个全球主要经济引擎,增长放缓速度正超出预期,但一些专家警告称,这也许不会很快在整体统计数据中得到明显体现,原因包括地方报告有误,以及在这样一个大国收集整理准确数据的种种困难。

中国官方资深经济学家卢迈在两周前的一次讲话中表示,中国官方的GDP数据并未全面反映1998年亚洲金融危机和2008年全球恐慌时期的低迷程度。他警告称,在当前的放缓过程中,这个问题很可能再次露头。他表示,观察人士应当更加密切地关注其它指标。

译者/和风

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: FT中文网
Publish date:01/12/11

“世界工厂”透不过气了

2011年12月02日 13:13 PM
“世界工厂”透不过气了
英国《金融时报》 吉密欧 北京, 拉胡尔•雅各布 香港报道

在温州兴丰烟具制造有限公司(Winfire)的打火机工厂里,身为外贸部经理的Hannah Sun不需要看经济数据也知道,中国制造业目前处境艰难。

今年早些时候,国外的一个大客户虑及全球经济的不确定性,不再向该公司下新订单,迫使上面这家拥有100多名员工的打火机工厂裁员了40来人。

Hannah Sun表示:“鞋厂的处境更糟糕。往年这个时候对他们来说通常是非常繁忙的季节,但今年许多鞋厂干脆停产,许多农民工被解雇,只能回家。”

几百万家与兴丰烟具一样的工厂正受到成本持续上涨、劳动力紧缺、利润率下滑以及海外订单锐减等因素的全面挤压。由于政府实行的政策,加上难以改变的一些人口和经济因素,导致中国低端生产日益难以维系,许多小型制造企业已到了经营不下去的地步。


中国官方的11月份采购经理指数(PMI)显示,这一趋势是全国性的:占到国内生产总值(GDP) 约50%的制造业出现了将近三年来的首次收缩。周四发布的11月份PMI从10月份的51.4跌至49.0,跌穿了50这一扩张与收缩的分界线。新订单和新出口订单指数预示形势还将恶化,目前工厂已经在减员、减少购买原材料和减产。

按渣打银行(Standard Chartered)大中华区研究主管王志浩(Stephen Green)的话说,“中国采购经理指数清晰地传达了这样一个信息:中国制造业出现了整体的、正在加深的收缩”。

导致制造业滑坡的第一个、也是最明显的原因是全球需求下滑,尤其是身陷困境的欧洲经济体的需求下滑。东莞乐凯安吉皮具有限公司(Luca Angelo Leather Product)总经理刘道松(David Liu)表示,最近两个月里,乐凯安吉对欧洲的出口下降了40%之多,而在国内市场上,尽管订单状况保持良好,但成本却在不断上涨。

“供货商要求即刻付款,这增加了我们的财务成本,”刘道松说。“银行正在严格控制中小企业贷款,我有不少朋友都在考虑减产。”

刘道松的话突显出,在一直以“世界工厂”而闻名的中国沿海制造业产业带,许多低科技产品制造企业正面临一系列长期挑战。在订单持续减少之际,许多公司还面临原材料涨价、贷款难、环境合规成本及劳动力成本上涨等问题。中国政府多年来一直在推行旨在推动制造业沿价值链攀升的政策,大力阻止国有银行体系向兴丰烟具这种规模小、技术含量低的生产商放贷。然而,中国绝大部分制造企业仍身处诸如纺织业之类的低端行业,成本上涨和贷款难导致的是许多制造企业慢慢被扼杀,而不是沿着技术阶梯爬升。

译者/何黎

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: FT中文网
Publish date:02/12/11

Lex专栏:谁抢了欧洲银行的午餐?

2011年12月02日 07:54 AM
Lex专栏:谁抢了欧洲银行的午餐?
英国《金融时报》 Lex专栏
欧洲银行正遭受连绵不断的冲击。然而,是谁在吃掉他们的午餐呢?欧洲银行最新遭遇的挫折,是穆迪投资者服务(Moody’s Investors Service)把近90%欧洲银行的次级债列入了可能下调评级的观察名单。这不足为奇:欧洲当政者为这些债务提供支持的意愿或能力都十分有限,更遑论债券持有人。然而,穆迪的警告突显出,随着银行纷纷削减风险加权资产以满足新资本规定,加之他们难以为那些资产筹集资金,欧洲可能面临一场信贷紧缩。

欧元区银行的资产负债表受到双面夹击。在负债方面,区外的银行以及企业交易对手正在前所未有地盘点各主权国家和银行的风险集中度。以野村(Nomura)为例:从第三季度以来,该公司将所持意大利资产削减了80%,西班牙资产削减了60%。目前尚未削减对欧元区银行信贷的债权人,也坚持要求提供抵押物。这纯粹是出于谨慎。毕竟欧洲银行第二季度在美国货币市场上受尽了冷遇。他们的批发融资成本相比瑞士、美国和英国的同行出现了大幅上升。紧缩已扩散到了零售银行:希腊阿尔法银行(Alpha)第三季度存款总额减少了5%。

在资产方面,法国三大银行——法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)、法国农业信贷银行(Crédit Agricole)和法国兴业银行(Société Générale)——在欧洲银团贷款市场上不断被美国银行夺走地盘。根据彭博(Bloomberg)的数据,法国三大银行在该市场的占有率已经向下逼近15%,为雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)破产以来的最低水平。包括花旗集团(Citigroup)和摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)在内的美国五大银行的占有率,则扩大了3个百分点,达13%。在亚洲市场上,随着法国银行退缩,日本银行和汇丰(HSBC)、渣打(Standard Chartered)等一些英国银行有望扩大地盘。

对非欧元区银行来说,欧元区危机所造成的直接影响应该是微乎其微,甚至是有利的。但鉴于欧元区领导人在政策方面始终混乱不堪,非欧元区银行完全不受间接影响的可能性很小。


私下交流请发电子邮件至lex@ft.com

Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评,对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析

译者/何黎

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: FT中文网
Publish date:01/12/11

中国地方债迷局

2011年12月01日 07:25 AM
中国地方债迷局
英国《金融时报》 欧阳德 报道

在中国,“看空者”与“看多者”之间分歧最大的,莫过于政府负债问题了。

按照“看空者”的说法,中国的隐性债务泛滥,这让中国处于与希腊相仿的境地,可能导致一场全面危机。

“看多者”则反驳称,中国的官方债务负担并不高,所谓的隐性债务更多是想象的,而非切实存在的。

真相则介于这两个极端看法之间。


许多经济学家乃至一些官员都表示,(政府)借债目前还不是一个问题,但如不及时控制,过去几年的债务飙升就可能构成严峻风险。

实际上,中国政府已开始走上控制这一问题的道路,这让谨慎乐观态度变得更有道理。

对政府债务的担忧源自于全球金融危机,当时中国利用银行提供财政刺激。这些银行在2009年和2010年发放了17.5万亿元人民币(合2.750万亿美元)的新增贷款,而且它们似乎更关注把贷款尽快放出去,而没有仔细审核。

中国因实施刺激计划而使本国经济迅速从危机中复苏,这赢得很多赞誉,但很快,赞誉就转变为对目前仍未到期的账单的担忧。

中国政府有意淡化这一风险,指出其债务与国内生产总值(GDP)之比不到20%,远远低于国际标准。

美国西北大学(Northwestern University)教授史宗翰(Victor Shih)表示,如果把各级政府和国有企业的债务考虑在内的话,真正的比例可能接近150%这一惊人水平。史宗翰关注中国政府开支中较灰暗的一面。

而市场中的许多人只是对此保持审慎,并没有过分担忧。

瑞银(UBS)经济学家王涛表示:“尽管我们认为难以得出中国信贷水平过高的结论,但信贷扩张的速度令人不安。”

不可否认的是,中国政府在债务公开方面有所进步。

在2010年的大部分时间里,涉及地方债的讨论,在北京听起来就像是诡秘的窃窃私语。但今年,国家审计署首次对地方财务状况做了审计。

审计发现,中国各省、市、县三级地方政府负债10.7万亿元人民币,相当于经济总量的27%。尽管一些分析师相信,这低估了债务规模,但这次审计给出了迄今最权威的数据,并表明问题不小,不过在可控范围内。

中国政府还采取了一些措施,确保公共财政不会进一步大幅恶化。它要求银行在向地方政府支持的项目放贷时更加谨慎。

中国政府还慢慢开始改革财政体系——这是最初导致银行放贷激增的源头。

从技术角度讲不得借债的地方政府,创造了大量的独立融资工具来绕开规定。这些工具是有问题的,因为它们是债务水平难以准确评估的重要原因,而且,它们让中国脆弱的银行业部门承担了巨大、不确定的信贷风险。

分析人士表示,允许地方政府直接利用债券市场的做法,则要好得多。在经过多年讨论,中国首宗地方债券发行似乎即将启动。毗邻上海的富裕沿海省份浙江表示,今年将发行80亿元人民币的债券,为基础设施建设提供融资。

但其它一些重大担忧仍在隐现。两位数的经济增长,曾帮助中国在过去十年限制了债务占GDP的比例。分母(GDP)总是比分子(债务)的扩张速度更快。

而随着债务到期,中国经济增长逐渐减速,经济增长率超过债务增速将不再是一个选项。

对于全球经济而言,中国债务的累积也带来了短期风险。这并非爆发金融危机的风险,而是在于,中国政府为了控制债务,也许将不愿再次放开信贷的阀门。

译者/何黎
Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: FT中文网
Publish date:01/12/11

The pros and cons of rights issues in Reits

Business Times - 03 Dec 2011

SHOW ME THE MONEY
The pros and cons of rights issues in Reits

From our research, investors who opted not to participate in the rights issues have come out ahead

By TEH HOOI LING
SENIOR CORRESPONDENT

I RECEIVED quite a number of e-mail and text messages in response to my article last week which talked about how it is a myth to expect real estate investment trusts (Reits) to be a steady income yielding instruments.

The fact is, Reit managers are always on the lookout to expand their portfolio under management. The bigger their portfolio, the more transactions they carry out, the higher their fees.

But there is no denying that some managers do have the contacts and expertise to bag the right acquisitions at the right price, hence benefiting unitholders who chose to pump in more money to participate in the continued expansion of the Reits.

One of the most common questions that I received in response to last week's article was: What would the return be if I don't subscribe to the rights?

Does it pay to subscribe?

I decided to tabulate all the cash flows of the Reits with at least four years' track record. For one set of cash flows, I assumed that the investor subscribed to his or her entitlement of rights shares. For the other set, the assumption was that the investor didn't subscribe and didn't sell the rights shares in the market as well. Some rights shares have market value, and some, like the recent K-Reit rights have zero market value. That's because the exercise price for the rights is almost equivalent to the market price of K-Reit, hence there is no privilege to owning the rights.

Based on the cash flow stream, I then calculated the internal rate of return (IRR) for each strategy.

This is the definition of IRR from Wikipedia: 'The IRR on an investment or project is the 'annualised effective compounded return rate' or 'rate of return' that makes the net present value of costs (negative cash flows) of the investment equal to the net present value of the benefits (positive cash flows) of the investment.

'Internal rates of return are commonly used to evaluate the desirability of investments or projects. The higher a project's internal rate of return, the more desirable it is to undertake the project. Assuming all projects require the same amount of upfront investment, the project with the highest IRR would be considered the best and undertaken first.

'A firm (or individual) should, in theory, undertake all projects or investments available with IRRs that exceed the cost of capital. Investment, however, may be limited by availability of funds to the firm and/or by the firm's capacity or ability to manage numerous projects.'

So how did the Reits do when we take into consideration additional capital injections? And would investors be severely punished for not taking up their rights entitlement?

Out of the 18 Reits, 13 chalked up positive IRRs, but some just barely.

Seven managed to reward investors with IRRs of more than 10 per cent. Ascott Residence and Ascendas Reit are among the top performers. And curiously, it is investors who opted not to participate in the rights issues who have come out ahead. And if these investors managed to sell their rights entitlement in the market, their return would have been even higher.

By not participating in the rights, an investor in Ascott since its IPO days would have registered a 17.2 per cent IRR. For those who forked out additional cash to take up their rights issues, their IRR worked out to 13.4 per cent.

I reckoned that this happened because the appreciation of Ascott's share price has not been as steep since its latest round of cash call last year. And also, very importantly, Ascott's rights issues weren't that dilutive in that the exercise price of its rights was only a slight discount to the then market price of its units.

This was similar for Ascendas Reit, although the difference wasn't that great. The cash calls of Ascendas Reit have been relatively small.

But for most of the other Reits, it was a clear disadvantage if existing unitholders gave up on their entitlement to rights issues which were offered at a heavily discounted price to their then market price.

If unitholders don't have the money to meet the cash calls, they can try to sell their rights shares in the market. This is of course conditional upon the fact that the market is relatively happy with the proposed acquisition of the Reit, and that the market price of the Reit remained higher than the rights exercise price.

If the acquisition is seen as bad for the Reit, perhaps because the price agreed upon for the particular acquisition is too high for the benefits that it would accrue, then the market would sell the Reit causing its price to fall. Sometimes the decline is so big that the market price of the Reit approaches the rights exercise price, or even lower. In that case, the rights issue would most likely not be able to raise its intended amount of money.

So the thing is, as long as the interest of unitholders and the managers are not aligned, there will always be the very real risk that a Reit will enter into transactions which are less than favourable to the minority unitholders. For example, the sponsor may try to offload not so attractive assets to the Reit.

Other cash generating stocks

How about some of the cash generating businesses out there? How do they stack up against the Reits? Well, not too badly it seems.

I tallied up the cash flows of StarHub, SingTel and SPH since 2002. StarHub has just been a mean cash-generating machine since its IPO in 2005. An investor who invested at its IPO would have chalked up an IRR of 30 per cent, beating all the Reits out there, and with no risk of any cash calls to beat.

SingTel has not fared too badly with an IRR of 13 per cent since 2002. Despite its constant cash distribution, SPH - which is perceived to lack growth and hence chalked up little capital appreciation - has managed an IRR of only 5 per cent since 2002.

Advice from fund manager

For investors who are keen on Reits and other business trusts, here is some advice from a fund manager friend on how to go about picking the right ones.

'Industrial properties usually have 30-year leases, or 30+30. Assuming a 30-year lease, it means it depreciates at a rate of 3.3 per cent pa, versus one per cent pa for a 99-year lease for a retail or commercial building. So the yields for industrial Reits have to be up to 2.3 per cent pa higher than retail or commercial Reits. Usually however, it is less due to the time discount factor.

'Ships are usually scrapped after about 25-30 years. I think typically they are depreciated over 15 years or so. Even if ships are scrapped after 30 years, shipping trusts should command a higher yield than industrial Reits because the ship lessee can 'disappear' with the ship, but not the industrial building tenant.

'Hospital Reits like Parkway Reit is a rare breed as its revenue is based on a consumer price index formula. You can think of it as having zero vacancy rate (but the main issue is counterparty risk). So given the same counterparty risk, it should trade at a lower yield than retail Reits, which should trade at lower yields than commercial Reits, given the same tenure (because it's easier to lease out retail units).

'In turn, commercial Reits should trade at lower yields to industrial, which should trade at lower yields to hospitality (as vacancy rates of hotels/service apartments can be quite high during recessions).

'Hospitality Reits should trade at lower yields to shipping.

'But note that industrial can trade at higher yields to hospitality as the former has shorter tenures.

'As for Hutchison Port Holding Trust and SP Ausnet, I would value them as companies rather than Reits, as usually the rates they charge are prone to fluctuations - unlike Reits and shipping trusts which usually lock customers up for years.

'SP Ausnet is not structured even as a business trust and pays its dividends out of net profit rather than cash profit. I think every year, it pays out the same dividend per share even though its earnings fluctuate. I would value it the same way I value SingPost.'

So here you have it. I hope that we all are now a little clearer about the nuances of the various instruments out there.


The writer is a CFA charterholder

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:03/12/11

Beijing will cut interest rates: Goldman, HSBC

Business Times - 03 Dec 2011


Beijing will cut interest rates: Goldman, HSBC

(Beijing)

GOLDMAN Sachs Group and HSBC Holdings have forecast that China will cut interest rates in 2012, putting the banks at odds with most of their rivals, who see elevated inflation preventing a reduction.

The People's Bank of China reduced lenders' reserve requirements on Nov 30 for the first time since 2008 as Europe's debt crisis deepened. Eleven economists of 20 in a Bloomberg News survey conducted on Thursday and yesterday said that rates will stay unchanged through next year, and another four predict increases. Goldman and HSBC are among five that see cuts.

China's challenge in loosening monetary policy is to sustain the expansion of the world's second-largest economy without spurring price gains, fuelling bad loans or re-igniting a real estate boom that has started to deflate. Inflation will remain too high for the benchmark one-year deposit rate to be lowered from the current 3.5 per cent, according to Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd.

'The authorities should be careful that the loosening does not go too far in order to prevent a repeat of mistakes during the 2008 global financial crisis,' said Ma Xiaoping, a Beijing-based economist with HSBC. Mr Ma said that rates may be cut after inflation falls below 3 per cent in the second half of next year.

Across Asia, policymakers are moving to preserve growth. In Tokyo, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda on Thursday ordered a fourth extra budget, a step unprecedented since postwar reconstruction, while Thailand cut interest rates this week and Indonesia did the same on Nov 10.

HSBC's Mr Ma said that three more reserve-ratio cuts are likely in the first half of next year, along with tax breaks and fiscal stimulus.

While China's inflation has slowed to 5.5 per cent from a three-year high of 6.5 per cent in July, the rate remains two percentage points higher than the one-year deposit rate, discouraging saving and adding to the risk of asset bubbles. -- Bloomberg




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:03/12/11

Credit Suisse sees reflation rally for Asian stocks

Business Times - 03 Dec 2011


Credit Suisse sees reflation rally for Asian stocks

By LYNETTE KHOO

ASIAN equities are primed for a 'reflation rally' as slowing inflation provides room for monetary easing by central banks. This could lift Asian stocks by 10-15 per cent next year, according to Credit Suisse.

Its top market overweights are China, South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore.

Sakthi Siva, Credit Suisse global emerging markets and Asia-Pacific strategist, said that the MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index is expected to hit 527 points by the end of 2012. This is based on a 60 per cent probability of a 'mini 2009' scenario stoked by quantitative easing in Europe.

She urged investors to pick stocks trading close to their price-to-book (P/B) valuation troughs of 2008 and 2009.

Some central banks around the world have already started trimming interest rates to stimulate growth while China has just cut its reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points this week.

'Our view is these are not one-off rate cuts. We feel that we will see more broad-based easing in policy,' Ms Siva told reporters in Singapore and Hong Kong yesterday. 'Historically, when rates were cut, the markets had generally gone up.'

She observed that Asian markets are already pricing in a recession in the developed Western economies, not a financial crisis. And most indicators used by her research team point to a soft landing for the global economy.

China's market is now trading at 1.45 times P/B, below the trough of 2008-2009. Lower inflationary pressures have opened doors for more policy fine-tuning, Ms Siva said.

With a huge fiscal surplus and its RRR at a record high of 21 per cent, China has 'a lot of policy bullets', she added. Previous RRR cuts had been closely associated with strong gains in Chinese equities.

As for the Singapore market, she advocates riding the 'structural ROE story' by picking stocks with rising return on equity (ROE) with low or falling gearing.

Singapore stocks are currently the cheapest in terms of price-to-book valuation in the South-east Asian region. The market is trading at 1.28 times P/B, even below the 2001 recession level of 1.36 times.

Ms Siva noted that the Singapore market has underperformed regional peers as investors perceived it to be a cyclical market given its high export-to-GDP ratio.

But the Straits Times Index is expected to hit 3,038 points by the end of next year, according to Credit Suisse. The index gained 11.48 points yesterday to close at 2,773.36.

Among Singapore stocks, Credit Suisse likes Keppel Corp for its rising ROE and strong order flows, and favours Sembcorp Industries that is trading at its trough valuation of 2008-2009.

In terms of sector overweights for the region, Credit Suisse is moving from consumer cyclicals to real estate, which is expected to be a key beneficiary of the reflation theme.

Despite recent price corrections in the property market, Ms Siva pointed out that there tends to be a disconnect between developers' share prices and the physical market in Singapore and Hong Kong.

While there may be further price corrections in the physical property market, the shares of developers have already priced in this prospect, she said.

She highlighted Singapore-listed CapitaLand, and Hong Kong-listed Cheung Kong, Sun Hung Kai, and COLI among those trading close to the P/B lows of 2008-2009.

Ms Siva is also bullish on the energy and materials sector in the region, and favours stocks whose absolute P/B ratio is at the lows of 2008 or 2009, such as BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto.




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:03/12/11

Financial crisis solution will take years: Merkel

Business Times - 03 Dec 2011


Financial crisis solution will take years: Merkel

(Berlin)

GERMAN Chancellor Angela Merkel flatly rejected any quick-fix ideas to try to resolve the European financial crisis, telling lawmakers yesterday that treaty changes and a stricter fiscal union were the only path forward - a process that could take years.

Speaking to the lower house of Parliament in a speech previewing the European Union (EU) summit, Ms Merkel again rejected joint euro-area bonds or trying to make the European Central Bank (ECB) the lender of last resort. The ECB's role is different from that of the Federal Reserve or the Bank of England, she said, and likened the debt crisis fight to a marathon.

'Marathon runners often say that a marathon gets especially tough and strenuous after about 35 kilometres,' Ms Merkel said as she laid out to the lower house of Parliament plans she will take to a Dec 9 EU summit in Brussels 'But they also say you can last the whole course if you're aware of the magnitude of the task from the start.'

Ms Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy are pushing for a reorganisation of existing EU regulations, in order to ensure the eurozone's long-term stability and win back the trust of markets that have grown jittery over what they view as European dithering.

She insisted the 17 nations that use the euro currency need to strengthen EU institutions and eurozone financial regulations. She called for closer supervision of national budgets, coupled with legal regulations that would allow for stronger enforcement of spending rules.

'The German government has made it clear that the European crisis will not be solved in one fell swoop ...' she said. 'It's a process, and this process will take years.'

Ms Merkel said that because the crisis is above all one of trust, in order to move forward, 'we need to do away with the underlying deficiencies in the fiscal and currency union'.

'In order to win back trust, we need to do more, where we today have agreements, we need in the future to have legally binding regulations,' Ms Merkel noted.

The eurozone's current budget rules have been violated about 60 times over the past decade by a number of nations - including Germany - but no country has been seriously punished.

'The lessons are very simple: Rules must be adhered to, adherence must be monitored, non-adherence must have consequences,' she said yesterday. Leaders have to 'overcome fundamental flaws in the construction of the euro area'.

To ensure that nations are keeping their budgets in check with the limits of the stability pact - deficits not more than 3 per cent of gross domestic product and overall government debt of not more than 60 per cent of GDP - Germany is pushing for the right to take countries in violation before the European Court of Justice. 'We have to win back that trust that was damaged 60 times,' Ms Merkel said.

On Thursday, Mr Sarkozy called for a 'refounding and rethinking the organisation of Europe'. He said that without some new 'convergence' among European countries, the continent's crushing debt could destroy the euro. Ms Merkel and Mr Sarkozy are to meet on Monday to finalise their joint strategy ahead of next week's EU summit.

Stock markets across Europe welcomed the calls for more strict regulations through EU treaty changes, rising overnight on Mr Sarkozy's comments.

The bond yield for Italy also continued to drop, an indication of improving investor confidence in that country's financial future.

Ms Merkel reiterated her objection to so-called eurobonds, held jointly by all EU nations, telling Parliament that jointly backed government debt across the eurozone are 'unthinkable' as long as governments retain national control over budgets. 'You have to differentiate between credible enforcement powers and joint European control over revenue and spending,' she said. 'And as long as this is so, joint liability for the debt of others is unthinkable.'

She also pushed back against charges that Germany, along with France, is trying to dominate the EU, singling out those nations whose governments have been forced to push through tough austerity measures and praising their efforts. -- AP, Bloomberg



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:03/12/11

曾淵滄教路 (29/11/11): 股價累積跌幅大 勤+緣供股博得過

股價累積跌幅大 勤+緣供股博得過
股市一跌再跌,沒有任何好消息,也沒有甚麼新的壞消息,依然是歐債危機,只是危機不斷地擴大,沒有任何解決曙光,德國依然反對印鈔票來救歐債。但是,不印鈔票也似乎已沒有其他有效的解決辦法。

可是,股價一跌再跌的同時,城市富豪如李嘉誠者,依然不斷地在吸納自己旗下企業的股票,對東亞銀行(023)很有興趣的國浩(0053),也沒有停止買入。可見,股票是的確愈來愈便宜了,只不過,對多數散戶而言,總是抱着低處不算低的心態,生怕今天買入,明天再跌。

富豪大跌市撈底
其間,某一些股在大行支持下,會突然炒高,上星期就有一些內房股如雅居樂(3383)及碧桂園(2007)股價就突然在十一月二十四日被炒高,理由是大摩唱好。不過,大行之間的看法也不盡相同,才過一天,瑞信就唱淡內房股。

成交在大幅萎縮中,衍生工具佔總成交的比重在增加,把股市當賭場炒作者在增加,不參與炒作者,看着股價一天天下跌,一天天的失望。股市就是在考驗耐力的地方。這種情況很像二○○九年初的情況,當然股價也是天天跌,誰也不知道幾時會轉向。不過,最後股市終於轉向了,股市是不會無休無止的往下跌。最後,新的利好業績一定能使到不斷往下跌的股市止跌。

金融海嘯前,勤+緣(2366)是一隻很多人參與炒賣的炒股,可是金融海嘯之後,股價就一直不振,近日更是屢創新低位,與當年高峰期比較,股價已經不見了九成以上,持貨者目前更得面對一個決定,即供不供股,大比例供股,持有一股供四股,供股價每股八仙,供股價與現價比較,折讓比率近八成,這麼大比例供股,不供的話,權益會被攤薄一半以上,換言之,不供的話,將來股價理論上將再比現價跌一半以上,這是炒二、三線股不得不面對的問題,這隻股當年我也炒過,幸好是賺了錢離場,有朋友問我,不幸手上仍持有,供不供?

不供股被大幅攤薄
我認為是應該供的,理由一是不供的話,攤薄效果太大;理由二是若在現價賣掉,虧損比例太高,不值得股價跌得重並不是企業虧光了資產九成,而是大市不濟時,二、三線股往往跌得更重所致。二○○八年底我向讀者們建議買中國建材(3323),二○○八年初我向讀者們建議買勝獅貨櫃(716),當時這兩隻股的股價與高峰期比,也是跌幅驚人。二○○九年初,勝獅貨櫃也是要供股集資,事後證明,當時供股是正確的,理由三是既然供股價如此低,所需拿出來的錢與你當年投入的錢已不成比例,是極少的,既然很少,博一博又何妨。

當然,你不必這麼快做決定,除淨日是明年初的事,可以靜等專業的獨立評估報告出來,了解供股的目的才做決定。


輯錄自 431期 Book A 【曾淵滄教路】 29/11/11


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 東周刊
Publish date: 29/11/11

CapitaLand: 3+3+2: Deepening China exposure in Chongqing (DMG)

CAPITALAND
BUY 
Price S$2.53
Previous S$3.52
Target S$3.52
3+3+2: Deepening China exposure in Chongqing

CapitaLand has just announced the successful tender for a large scale mixed development site in Chong Qing, in a JV together with Temasek entity Singbridge. The CapitaLand and CMA each holds a 25% stake in the project which brings about CapitaLand’s effective stake in the project at c.41%. The Chao Tian Men site, with acquisition cost of RMB6.54b (S$1.28b) is expected to yield a total land area of c.91,783 sqm, translating to total GFA of c.817,000 sqm. We understand from management the site attracted 6 bids back in Apr 11, in which CapitaLand with a track record of successful mixed developments edged out on development design.

Initial site details. The Chao Tian Men site is located in the Yuzhong District along the Yangtze River and Jialing River and near the CBD of Jiefangbei. The project designed by Moshe Safdie (Marina Bay Sands, Bishan Central Condominium) is expected to be a landmark mixed development consisting of two central hotel/office/serviced residence towers, four other residential towers linked by a sky garden as well as two separate residential towers (see Figure 1 and 2). The GFA breakdown is as follows:
Retail: 222,000 sqm (27.2%)
Residential: 331,000 sqm (40.5%)
Office: 174,000 sqm (21.3%)
Hotel: 60,000 sqm (7%)
Serviced residence: 30,000 sqm (3.7%)

Continued focus on China with a longer term horizon. This landmark project with a longer term development period of 5 years is situated at the heart of the Chong Qing new CBD is targeted to ride on Chong Qing’s GDP growth c.15% p.a. with a population of 33m. This latest acquisition the third retail project in Chong Qing following CapitaMall Shapingba and CapitaMall Jiulongpo, in line with CapitaLand’s continued focus on the China market in line with its current 3+3+2 strategy. Moving forward, CapitaLand’s asset allocation in China is expected to edge up from currently 35% to c.42-45%.

BUY maintained, TPS$3.52. We estimate this acquisition is expected to enhance CapitaLand’s RNAV per share by 2S¢ based on initial estimates (14% IRR). We continue to like CapitaLand for its active capital deployment into potential RNAV accretive developments, albeit we recognise a period of gestation period is required for large scale projects before realising value. That said, stock is trading at attractive 42% to RNAV. BUY maintained, TPS$3.52.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: DMG & Partners Research
Publish date:29//11/11

高盛唱多做空 国际投行联手做空中国端倪已现

高盛唱多做空 国际投行联手做空中国端倪已现
2011-11-19 11:23:27 来源: 中国经营报(北京) 

历史总是惊人的巧合。去年11月份,国际投行高盛一份唱空A股的报告引发了沪指162点的暴跌还让人记忆犹新。近日,高盛又大笔减持工商银行,引发外资做空风潮,导致沪指11月16日、17日连续暴跌,几乎中断A股反弹行情。

唱多做空是国际投行在中国股市惯用的伎俩。不过这一次,国外权威机构和大投行的做法更加赤裸裸。IMF(国际货币基金组织)发布看空中国金融体系报告,美国银行则公然食言,二度减持建设银行股份,高盛则在推出唱多银行股报告之后第三次减持工行股份。

尽管高盛自身以及市场分析人士多认为此举乃出于自身应对欧债危机、弥补自身流动性的需求,但是《中国经营报》记者从高盛内部人士处获悉,看空银行股前景,认为估值到位,也是减持的重要原因。

做空中国,可能刚刚开始。

高盛带头做空

11月15日,IMF发布了该组织对中国金融部门的首次正式评估报告——“金融部门评估计划”(FSAP)报告,指出中国金融部门近期面临几大风险:快速的信贷扩张导致贷款质量恶化;影子银行和表外活动导致银行脱媒(金融非中介化)现象加剧;房价下跌;全球经济形势不明朗。

次日(即11月16日),在银行股的带头下,A股应声下跌。建设银行跌1.86%,工行跌0.93%,而在此前的10日,也就是高盛减持消息曝光的当日,该行股价暴跌2.75%,中行、农行也有近2%的跌幅。当日上证综指暴跌62点,最多时跌去72点,跌幅达到2.48%,A股来之不易的反弹几乎就此夭折。

“国际投行联手做空A股在历史上并不罕见,甚至可以说是连续发生。”一位市场人士指出,外资做空A股的原因很多,可能是真的看空,也可能是在国际资本市场上布局做空谋利,也不排除为了在更低位置把股票买回去。“高盛往往扮演做空排头兵的角色,去年11月份高盛总部就曾发出一份建议客户卖出中国股票的报告,并引发A股恐慌式暴跌160余点。”

一年之后,高盛故伎重演。只不过,这次玩弄中国银行股的手法更加纯熟。10月底,高盛一改唱空论调开始加入唱多大军,在连续发布两份报告后,11月初高盛在一份客户报告中建议做多中国股票。

但是11月10日,高盛计划在场外减持工行H股的文件曝光。高盛拟以最低4.88港元的价格出售24亿工行H股,套现120港元。14日联交所文件显示,高盛最终出售17.52亿股工行H股,套现85.49亿港元。据统计,高盛已累计减持工行股票三次,套现超过52亿美元,加上尚未出售的股权价值,高盛在工行投资上回报超300%。

在10月底的报告中,高盛称看好中国概念股,其中工行H股正是其最为看好的股票之一。高盛在报告中预测,工行H股潜在升幅将达50%。而就在近一个月内,工行H股涨幅超过了30%,而高盛也由此多赚了将近3亿美元。但是10日当日,工行股价暴跌8.67%,投资者损失惨重。

“一方面发布看多报告,一方面大手笔减持。”一位基金经理指出,高盛尽管可以声称研究和自营是分开的,但是其中用意昭然若揭。

2006年,高盛以25.8亿美元作为战略投资者入股工行,取得其7%股权。而从2009年6月、2010年10月以及2011年 11月的三次减持套现来看,高盛套现金额共计52.6亿美元,已净赚26.8亿美元。

工行行长杨凯生曾对此做出回应,称高盛减持是出于自身资产配置的需要,工行可持续发展能力和经营能力没有问题。但是本报记者从高盛内部人士处获悉,此次减持和高盛看空银行股关系密切。

“虽然三季度亏损,但高盛目前流动性仍然很充足,资本充足率也完全没有问题,满足《巴塞尔协议》的要求。”该内部人士透露,从2006年至今,高盛认为在工行的投资汇报已经够高,需要及时兑现。

高盛集团三季度报显示,其全球核心超额流动性为1640亿美元,和二季度持平;一级资本充足率为13.8%,一级普通资本充足率为12.1%,较二季度有所下降。

紧随高盛,11月14日晚间美国银行官网发布公告,将以私人交易方式出售104亿股建行股份,涉资66亿美元(约合人民币419.66亿元)。交易完成后,美国银行持有的建行股份将降至1%。此时距美国银行承诺继续保持战略投资者身份(持股比例不低于5%)之后不足三个月,变脸速度之快令人震惊。

“减持是因为自身的不健康。美国银行需要补充资本金,如果在美国融资和充实资本金,代价太高,而现在卖出建行是盈利。”摩根大通董事总经理兼中国区全球市场业务主席李晶认为,美国银行通过减持来充斥资本金,属于内部需要。

上海财经大学MBA学院院长戴国强则认为,外资行的资金撤出是迟早要进行的。“作为欧美银行,其商业原则是影响其操作的主要依据。出于应对风险的目的,可能会及早进行资金补充。”

银行股不妙?

尽管高盛和美国银行都声称减持乃是出于自身需要,并非看空中国银行股乃至经济前景,但是IMF的上述报告提出的中国银行业值得警惕的观点,显然有其减持背书的意味。

该报告认为,中国金融部门近期面临几大风险:快速的信贷扩张导致贷款质量恶化;影子银行和表外活动导致银行脱媒现象加剧;房价下跌;全球经济形势不明朗。并警告说,如果几个风险同时发生,银行体系可能受到“严重影响”。

“首先需要考虑的是这些事件同时发生的概率有多高。”华侨银行(中国)有限公司董事长兼首席执行官梁炜宁指出,之前市场提到的都是单一事项,IMF考虑的是三个方面的风险同时爆发,中国的金融业是否能够承受。

“中资行盈利情况很好,每个季度都能获得盈利新高。”李晶认为,只要对中国经济长期看好,即使短期内银行股不会有上扬,但是中长期的价值还是有的。

看空中国股市,似乎成为国外的一种潮流。就连一向看好中国股市的罗杰斯也于近日公开表示,现阶段不会投资中国股市,因为当前全球经济复苏放缓,中国经济的发展速度也受到影响,同时,中国面临着通胀、房地产泡沫等问题。在这种背景下,他预计未来两年中国股市将持续低迷。

“尽管银行有国家撑腰,倒闭的概率几乎为零,但是对于地方融资平台和房地产调控的担心始终是悬在银行业头上的达摩克利斯之剑。”某公募基金投资总监指出,银行和中国经济的牵扯太深,二者荣损与共。“某种程度上而言,做空银行股就是做空中国。”

更加令市场忧心的是,高盛和美国银行对于工行和建行的连番减持只是外资趁机做空中国的开始。

三季度的财报统计显示,QFII(合格境外机构投资者)持股占流通股本比例最多的前十位中,银行股占据半数席位。其中荷兰商业银行持有北京银行流通股份高达16.07%,占QFII持股比例榜首位,华夏银行被三家QFII持有,兴业银行、南京银行、宁波银行则分别被一家QFII持有。

外资做空中国端倪已现。根据上市公司三季报公布十大流通股东对A股的持有情况看,遭到QFII抛弃或者减持的公司明显多于增持和新进的公司,数量上也呈现出明显净减持的态势。

根据有关机构统计,QFII三季度仅新进A股38只,且多数买入股数占流通A股比例都较小,而二季度A股十大流通股东中仍有QFII身影,但三季度末QFII消失的个股达到了65家,其中10家QFII中期仍持有超千万流通A股公司在三季度尽数遭到了抛售。

比如瑞士银行三季度抛售了农业银行A股25740.92万股和中信证券5095.84万股,减持了万科1124.47万股。强生控股则同时遭遇瑞士银行、挪威中央银行、荷兰安智银行和东方汇理银行的减持。

由西南证券首席策略研究员张刚所做的一项统计显示,QFII三季度投资股票的市值为540.84亿元,较二季度的648.56亿元减少107.72亿元,若剔除因限售股解禁的兴业银行、北京银行、宁波银行、南京银行、华夏银行等,QFII三季度持股市值189.58亿元,较二季度减少75.09亿元,减幅达到28.37%。


“外资本轮减持银行股,可能是战略性做空。”上海一位机构投资者负责人士指出,本轮做空出现在中国银行依靠存贷差盈利模式已经过去,而新的盈利模式尚未形成,银行获取超额利润时代已经过去的时期,而导火索则是目前较为明显的房地产调控和地方融资平台积累的高度风险,“而一旦国内外形成做空氛围,银行股可能跌得很惨,对整个A股市场都将形成重大压制。”

“但是当股价低到一定程度,并不排除再度买回的可能。”亦有基金人士指出,外资本质上仍然是在做波段,当上述风险得到释放或呈现,银行股被他们打压得一毛不值,则他们极有可能低位买入。“这个时间不会很短,可能是需要两三年才能看到。”

责任编辑:NF016(本文来源:中国经营报 )

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 网易 > 财经频道
Publish date: 03/12/11

11月官方PMI降至49 中国制造业环境大幅恶化

(北京综合电)中国制造业呈现2009年来最差表现,官方与非官方调查均显示中国11月份制造业活动出现萎缩,创下2009年第一季度全球金融危机爆发以来的最低水平。

  中国物流与采购联合会(CFLP)昨天公布的11月官方采购经理指数(PMI)连续第二个月下行,降至49,低于此前接受调查的分析师预计的49.7。

创32个月来新低

  更集中反映中小企业信心的、由汇丰控股(HSBC)公布的PMI终值也从10月份的51降至47.7,低于汇丰控股11月23日公布的预览指数48,创下32个月以来新低,环比降幅也为三年来最大。

  汇丰控股中国区首席经济学家屈宏斌在报告中说:“11月PMI显示,中国制造业环境大幅恶化。结合超预期放缓的通胀率来看,预计增长将取代通胀成为中国政府的首要政策关注点。”

  汇丰新闻稿说,11月新订单明显减少,减幅为32个月来最大,拖累制造业产量下降,为4个月以来首见,且降速为2009年3月以来最大,产出指数与新订单指数皆创下调查历史(始于2004年4月)最大环比降幅。

  随着原料成本回落,11月中国制造业的平均投入成本出现16个月来的首次下降,且为2009年3月以来最大;成本下降,制造业厂商因此相应下调产品价格,产出价格也有明显降幅,为32个月以来最大。

  准确预测了PMI数据的野村控股驻香港首席中国经济学家张智威说,疲软的PMI数据可能对周三中国央行决定下调商业银行存款准备金率起到了一定作用。

  他表示,有关部门肯定略早于数据正式发布就得知了这一数字。

  “未来几个月中国经济增速将大幅减缓”。他预计,中国经济增幅会下降到8%以下。

  CFLP特约分析师张立群分析说,“经济景气从扩张转为收缩,预示未来中国经济增长率将继续回落,新产品订单和购进价格指数回落,反映市场需求总体走低,企业生产经营困难可能从成本提高转向订单不足。”

  虽然11月的PMI数据低于预期,但分析认为,对未来中国经济增长并不需要过于悲观。

  汇丰PMI的分项数据就显示,新接出口业务在11月份不仅继续回升,而且增速为10个月以来最大,与长期平均值大致持平。

  屈宏斌说,“随着政策在未来几个月逐步放松,中国明年料仍可达到8%以上的经济增速。”

  张立群也认为,由于国内投资增长仍保持较高水平,消费增长稳中略有提高,因此未来经济增速回调预计仍将比较平稳,不会出现大的下滑。



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date: 03/12/11

瑞信:亚洲股市展望乐观 海指明年底料达3038点

瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)对2012年的亚洲股市展望表示乐观,认为本区域股市明年将会增长大约10%到15%。

  该投行预测,明年的MSCI亚洲区除日本指数(MSCI AC Asia ex Japan,简称MXASJ)将从当前的478点水平,攀升到527点,而海峡时报指数明年底的目标是3038点。

  瑞信昨天发布了其亚洲股市策略报告,分析2012年的亚洲股票市场前景。瑞信全球新兴市场和亚太投资策略师席瓦(Sakthi Siva)表示,她相信亚洲市场大致上会出现资产价格通货再膨胀(reflation)的现象。

  席瓦在新加坡出席记者会时说,由于通货膨胀率已经放缓下来,加上各国都会进行一定的定量宽松,因此瑞信作出这样的分析。

概率比重算法

  她还指出,他们这份报告的一系列分析,都是基于一种概率比重的算法,其中认为明年有60%的可能可以看到欧洲在财政上更密切联盟,进行定量宽松;25%的可能会继续依照现状拖下去;而只有15%的可能会重复2008年规模的经济风暴,通过这些概率而作出他们的预测与相应的策略。

  在新加坡方面,瑞信预测海峡时报指数明年将升至3038点,大约是比现在上升13%。

  报告还指出,新加坡股市目前的市账率(P/B ratio)已经降到1.28倍,这比2001年经济低迷时的1.36倍还要低,比起2003年沙斯时期也只高出8%,因此是属于低水平的市账率,新加坡股市也是这份报告建议投资者增持的一个市场。

瑞信通过分析股本回报率和谷底估价两个方法,建议投资者选择将有良好回报率以及较便宜的股票,其中推荐了五只股票,分别是吉宝企业(Keppel Corp.)、城市发展(City Developments)、奥兰国际(Olam International)、康福德高企业(Comfort DelGro)以及嘉德置地(CapitaLand)。
  席瓦指出,从8月到现在的几个月,那些市账率跌至接近过去2008/09年谷底价格的股票,因为价格被低估而比较便宜,但却比市场平均表现更好,其中研究的六只股平均回报率比市场表现高10.9%。

  倘若欧洲经济衰退与全球风暴进一步恶化,瑞信也在报告中,列出三只股票它认为将是最脆弱并容易受影响的,那就是华侨银行、中远投资(COSCO Corp)以及新达信托(Suntec REIT)。

  这是因为席瓦认为华侨银行有过多与资本市场相关的收入,风险较大、而中远投资的订单前景不佳,还有新达城可能会面临租用率降低的风险。

  在亚洲整体方面,报告认为投资者应该增持中国、韩国、香港以及澳大利亚的股票,并减持印度与其他东南亚国家的股票。

  席瓦也指出,她看好亚洲股市的基本原料、金融业、房地产以及能源这四个领域的股票,因为这些都是价格被低估的股票。

房地产股被低估

  她表示,虽然房地产价格过去几年上升,但是房地产领域的股价上升却跟不上,两者之间有一个差距,因此她认为房地产领域股价是被低估了。

  在新加坡房地产价格方面,席瓦认为我们并不处在泡沫中,因为泡沫的定义是指房价比起国家生产总值要多数倍速度在增长,而在新加坡并没有这个现象;问题是在于人民收入不均,最低收入群体收入增长很慢,因此她觉得政府增建组屋是正确的做法,有助于为房地产市场降温。

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date: 03/12/11

Gallant Venture 净资产值:51.5分 目标价:无

Gallant Venture 净资产值:51.5分 目标价:无

(2011-12-03)

Gallant Venture在印度尼西亚民丹岛西部发展一块3800公顷的工业地段。集团提供租户租赁和物流,并设有发电厂和污水处理厂,还供应水电和通讯设施。

  集团也以1亿5000万元竞标一个煤炭或生物燃料发电厂,管理层表示很快就可标得,但没有提供明确的日子。这预料可应付2013年拉戈伊湾(Lagoi Bay)海滩度假村的需求。度假村预计2012年第三季投入运作。

  此外,集团也有意寻求伙伴合作发展机场。这座机场将距离拉戈伊湾发展项目25分钟车程,现有机场距离达90分钟。据分析师了解,这项计划仍处于初步筹备阶段。

  集团第三季营收下挫29.6%至6740万元,因为较多的土地买卖在上一季已完成。集团毛盈利年比下跌60.8%至820万元,毛利率跌13.8%至17.2%。

  虽然截至去年12月31日集团在民丹岛已出售8500万元的土地,但分析师估计2011年转移和确认的将只有1300万元。集团有信心,接下来12个月可脱售更多土地。

(大华继显研究)

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date: 03/12/11

Cosco: Undeserving of rich valuations (Macq)

Cosco Corp
Price 30 Nov 11 S$0.88
12-month target S$ 0.60
Upside/Downside % -31.8
Valuation S$ 0.60

Undeserving of rich valuations
We initiate coverage on Cosco Corporation (COS) with an Underperform rating and target price of S$0.60, giving a downside of 32% as it trades at an expensive 1.43x against Asian shipbuilders’ average of 1.22x. We are concerned with the lack of margin visibility due to weak yard execution and the sharply slowing dry bulk new orders trend. Hence, we believe that current valuations for COS are too rich and have high de-rating potential.

High shipbuilding exposure to bulkers unfavourable
COS shipbuilding orderbook is dominated by dry bulk vessels of up to Panamax sizes. We believe this segment will be especially susceptible to intensified price competition as these vessel sizes are within reach of many marginal shipbuilders. Going into the ordering slowdown, smaller yards would be more tempted to undercut prices than let the yard fail due to insufficient orders. Hence, COS will likely be facing an order pipeline that carries razor-thin margins for this segment.

Execution record still spotty
COS’ lacklustre execution record raises concerns, as the yards continue to face delays or cost overruns particularly for the newer specialised vessel orders.
Since 2Q2010, we have seen an increasing trend of provisions made for lossmaking contracts. We understand that such provisions are more frequently associated with the Offshore & Marine (O&M) segment and specialised vessels, such as car carriers and heavylift vessels that require more sophisticated processes.

Contribution from stable, non-shipbuilding segments too minor
Conversions and repairs segment has always been regarded as a less volatile sub-segment for shipbuilders and one that provides stable margins in the mid-tohigh teens. Typically, this is an area of differentiation for most Chinese shipbuilding peers who tend to be more focused on building vessels. However for COS, ship repairs and conversions only form 23% of revenues and, hence, it may not be able to adequately offset both the industrywide trend of margin compression and execution risks from the shipbuilding and O&M segments.

Strong O&M order wins YTD but risks still remain
COS remains a relatively new entrant in the O&M space and would be more prone to thinner margins as it scales the “learning curve” in O&M projects. We note that COS has a wide O&M product portfolio despite having only emerged as a rising player within the past few years; thus benefits from economies of scales may not be seen so early.

Valuation and recommendation
Our 12-month target price for COS is S$0.60 (32% downside potential) with an Underperform rating, derived from our target P/B multiple of 0.98x (trough at 0.90x), based on (ROE-g)/(COE-g) method. COS is currently trading at 1.43x on our 2012E book value. We see key catalysts from 1) continued disappointing margins from 4Q results in Feb 2012 and 2) slowing new orders trend.

Company profile
Cosco Corp (COS) is a diversified shipbuilder with exposure to O&M and conversions/repairs through 7 yards in China controlled by its 51%-owned subsidiary, Cosco Shipyard Group. COS mainly builds dry bulk vessels of up to Panamax sizes for the shipbuilding segment and builds a variety of semisubmersibles, jack-ups and wind turbine installation vessels for the O&M segment. For ship repairs and conversions, COS mostly repairs dry bulk vessels and is able to convert commercial vessels for other purposes. COS also has peripheral exposure to dry bulk shipping via a fleet of 10 supramax bulkers. COS is 53%-owned by China’s state-owned COSCO Group and is listed in Singapore.

Currently trading at rich valuations to regional peers, we find COS’ twin negatives of weak execution and unfavourable shipbuilding exposure to bulkers to continue to depress earnings. We also believe that the lack of near-term positives will cause COS to revisit trough valuations.

Key catalysts:
Continued disappointing margins from 4Q results in Feb 2012.
Slowing new orders trend.

Undeserving of rich valuations
High shipbuilding exposure to bulkers unfavourable
Having established shipbuilding operations in 2007 and delivering its first vessel in April 2009, much of its shipbuilding product portfolio is still dominated by Panamax (70,000–92,000dwt) and supramax (57,000dwt) dry bulk carriers. We estimate that 37% of its current orderbook of US$6.4bn comprises of dry bulk vessels. We believe this segment will be especially susceptible to intensified price competition as this vessel size is within reach of many marginal shipbuilders. Going into the slowdown, we believe smaller yards will find it very tempting to offer sizeable discounts rather than letting the yard fail due to having insufficient orders. Given that COS only received its first dry bulk vessel orders for 2011 in Nov, we believe this shipbuilding focus on dry bulk vessels will prove to be its Achilles heel.

In volume terms, we have noticed a significant slowdown in dry bulk vessel orders this year, owing to overcapacity concerns and weak freight rates. This demand weakness has also translated into weaker vessel pricing due to severe price competition from marginal shipbuilders. We do not see a recovery for bulker ordering before 2013 and this will definitely impact COS, since it has a narrow shipbuilding portfolio that focuses on building Panamax and smaller bulkers.

Execution record still spotty
We are concerned with the lacklustre execution record at COS as the yards continue to face delays or cost overruns particularly for the newer specialised vessel orders. Since 2Q2010, we have seen an increasing trend of provisions made for loss-making contracts (Fig 8). From our discussions with management, we understand that such provisions are usually made when the contract is deemed to be making negative margins and is more frequently associated when they are building newer vessel types, such as the car carriers, heavylift vessels or certain O&M projects. Going forward, there is an increased possibility of such provisions to recur as COS takes on O&M orders for maiden project types on a turnkey basis, thus reducing headroom in the event of cost overruns or delays.

Conversions and repairs’ contribution too small to buffer industry slowdown
Given its small revenue contribution and increasing prospects of competition from lower-cost Asian yards, this segment is unlikely to provide a sufficient buffer against the overall industry slowdown. The conversions and repairs segment has always been seen as a less volatile business area of shipyards and provides more stable margins (15–20%). Typically, this would be an attractive area of differentiation against most Chinese shipbuilding peers who tend to be more focused on purely building vessels. However, ship repairs and conversions only form 24% of COS revenues and hence may not be able to adequately offset the trend of margins compression from the larger shipbuilding segment. Moreover, bulk carriers account for 71% of vessels repaired at COS, and with the dry bulk segment seeing lower vessel earnings in the near-term due to tonnage oversupply, we believe that the competitive threat from low-cost repair yards in Vietnam and South Asia would intensify.

Strong O&M order wins YTD but risks still remain
Having only delivered its first O&M project, Sevan Driller, in late 2009, COS remains a relatively new entrant when compared to dominant competitors in Korea and Singapore. Hence, COS may be susceptible to thinner margins as it scales the “learning curve” in O&M projects, particularly for the newer product types. We also note that as a result of having a wide O&M product portfolio, COS may take a longer time to reap benefits from economies of scale. We learned from management that clinching contracts on a turnkey basis (all-in fixed price) is now on par in what is currently a buyer’s market. In our view, any cost overruns or delays for these orders would cause further downside to margins.

Valuation and recommendation
Our 12-month target price for COS is S$0.60 (32% downside potential) with an Underperform rating, derived from our target P/B multiple of 0.98x based on (ROE-g)/(COE-g) method. COS is currently trading at 1.43x on our 2012E book value, which we believe has the potential to de-rate as Asian shipbuilder’s trade at an average 1.22x


Company-specific upside risks
Strong improvement to shipyard execution
We see this as the main factor for COS’ price overhang due to the weak execution that has brought on a lack of forward clarity for margins. If there is a sustained improvement to this, resulting in lesser delays or costs, we would reassess our earnings estimates.

Diversification of shipbuilding orderbook for higher-margin orders.
We see possible margin upside if COS is able to diversify out of its bulker-heavy orderbook into building vessel types facing lesser extent of oversupply, such as LNG carriers or offshore support vessels. These orders are more likely to carry higher margins.

Company-specific downside risks
Turnkey contracts provide little room for error
Since 2010, almost all of COS’ O&M contracts have been clinched on a turnkey basis, meaning there are no provisions for unforeseen cost escalations. Therefore, COS margins will be sharply impacted in the event of any cost overruns or construction delays.

O&M orderbook poses concentration risk
Due to the typically high value of O&M orders (US$300–500m), the top three orderbook clients collectively account for 39%. Hence, any payment difficulties from these clients will pose significant risks to COS’ profitability. However, we understand that Sinosure will insure 90% of the order value for O&M orders during the construction process.

Industry risks
Reduced demand for seaborne tonnage to affect operators’ earnings
Should the global economy continue to be weak, this will cause softer trade volumes and hence, demand for seaborne tonnage will be reduced. Consequently, shipping operators’ earnings will be impacted and result in weaker propensity for orders to be placed.

Weakened ship financing appetite to affect new orders
Continued economic weakness can also reduce the loan-granting appetite of bank shipping finance and the role of shipping finance becomes even more critical should fleet owners’ balance sheets be weakened along with the wider economy.

Clients’ weakened financial health increases strain on yards’ balance sheets
Economic weakness can also result in deterioration of clients’ ability to meet progress payments for vessels under construction. Such orders may either be cancelled or have deliveries delayed. In both scenarios, an already strong balance sheet and robust working capital will help minimise the financial impact on the shipbuilder. COS may see higher associated risks from offshore clients who have not secured charters for their orders placed at COS. We believe COS’ RMB2bn MTN programme was partly undertaken with the

consideration of such risks.
Appreciation of Renminbi (RMB)
Almost all shipbuilding contracts are priced in US$ as part of industry conventions, while up to 70% of Chinese shipbuilders’ COGS are denominated in RMB. Hence, we can expect margin compression owing from FX losses should RMB appreciate strongly against the US$ on a sustained basis.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Macquarie-Research,
Publish date:01/12/11

高盛唱多A股葫芦里卖什么药

高盛唱多A股葫芦里卖什么药
http://www.sina.com.cn 2011年12月02日 07:50 中国经济网微博
  

  几天前,据传高盛在一份报告中明确唱多A股,并认为明年沪指可达3200点左右。于是很多人都在盘算,眼下是否就是A股的买点了呢?

  通过其决策取向来帮助我们看清其唱多的参考价值,也是不错的选项。

  首先,唱多不等于做多。2008年初,投资大师罗杰斯就曾在A股加速下跌时高声唱多A股,而几个月后当A股陷入深度下跌时,人们才惊奇地发现罗杰斯本人并没有买入A股。而罗杰斯一句“看好不等于持有”把自己抖了个干干净净。此次高盛会不会也在玩这一手呢?

  其次,像高盛这样的机构投资者,任何一项资产的多头都是其庞大投资计划的一个头寸,这些头寸的价值不在于头寸本身产生的现金流,而是其在这个投资计划中的作用。如果高盛真是出于这样的目的做多A股,那它持有A股的事实,对个体投资者就没有多少借鉴价值了。

  况且,上述假设只是诸多方案之一,而且还仅是从最简单的理论层面展开的,如果有更“绝妙”的方案,谁又能知道高盛唱多A股的葫芦里到底卖的是什么药?

  不过,若把问题向前引申一步,我们的机构可否借鉴这种先进的投资模式呢?中国的机构投资者,太关注零售业务,几乎完全忽视产品创新的批发业务,所以就出现了即便像期货这样无需太过复杂的整合即可创造出全新产品的领域,也只能一味地追求零售业绩的局面。如果我们也具备构造美妙组合的能力,那是否可以给中国投资者以更多机会呢?实际操作有什么困难我不知道,但至少理论上是可行的。 (田立)

  (责任编辑:林秀敏)




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 新浪财经
Publish date: 02/12/11

Of airport taxes and cost overrun

The Star Online > Business
Saturday December 3, 2011

Of airport taxes and cost overrun

By B.K. SIDHU
bksidhu@thestar.com.my

THE one unanswered question in the ongoing spat between AirAsia and Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd (MAHB) is why.

Why are they fighting now over a planned increase in passenger service charges (PSC) in the form of airport taxes when the hike was made public months ago?

Late this week AirAsia went viral in its campaign against the increase in airport taxes.

It took out advertisements in newspapers, went online, twitted about the issue; in short kicked up a fuss over the planned move that would see international passengers pay RM65 from Dec 1 instead of RM51 previously and RM31 instead of RM21 for passengers departing from the low cost carrier terminal.

While AirAsia's boss Tan Sri Tony Fernandes has raised a commotion over the issue in the interest of the passengers, he stopped his tirade after twitting his reasons for doing so. He said the airport taxes were raised when facilities at LCCT (Low Cost Carrier Terminal) remains poor, the new KLIA2 will cost nearly double its original RM2bil price tag and its opening is delayed to April 2013 from August 2011 and that the airport taxes to destinations such as Kuching and Langkawi is half the fare the airline charges.

“These are the reasons we are upset. Everyone wants to fly. We need efficiency. I end this and hope Malaysians are enlightened,” he twitted.

Could it be that AirAsia wants a percentage share of the PSC since it has brought the passengers into the LCCT as it claims in its “no airport tax raise” campaign that it does not benefit from the PSC? Fernandes did not comment on that possibility.

As it is, airlines are incentivised for the traffic they draw into airports.

There is an incentive programme where airlines are paid for the increase in passenger numbers besides the free landing for three years for new flights.

Whatever the reason may be, it is a question that begs an answer.

In an interview with StarBizWeek yesterday, AirAsia chairman Datuk Aziz Bakar says: “What we are asking is - to enable us to keep our fares low and encourage more visitors to come here - we just want a kopitiam' terminal not a Shangri-La' terminal.”

The fight over the PSC charges certainly overshadows the furore he had over the huge cost of building KLIA2.

On Tuesday, MAHB called the media to tell their side of the story over allegations of cost overrun for the KLIA2, and to build what can be considered a luxury low-cost terminal.

It also revealed the cost of building KLIA2 would be in the range of RM3.6bil and RM3.9bil from RM2bil previously and its rationale for that was that it was building an airport which is 71% bigger than its original size.

The question many are asking is why is there a need to have such as large airport that can cater to 45 million passengers. Is there going to be so much traffic to warrant such as huge, expensive low cost terminal?

MAHB's rationale seems to be that the main customer, AirAsia, is growing rapidly and it is building capacity now for the future. Whether that it a viable move is unclear as it is bringing its future capital expenditure of about RM700mil forward.

Notwithstanding the fact that there may be other airlines that may also want to fly in and out of KLIA2 and that would see traffic rise beyond the forecast 30 million passenger AirAsia is looking at.

It then makes sense to have an airport that will have a very large capacity.

In its notes to journalist to justify its extra spending on KLIA2, MAHB stated that there would be “continued growth in low cost travel - 30 million passengers by 2017.”

Aziz did say that “our projections is that we can reach 30 million even in 2015 and based on our track record we have delivered what we projected.”

So to avoid an expansion just three years after KLIA2 is built, MAHB are putting in more capacity upfront in view of the robust growth its main client is expecting.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: The Star Online
Publish date: 03/12/11

B股7个月内4次暴跌 外资席位带头"逃亡"

人民币罕见跌停 热钱大"逃亡" B股急泻
时间:2011年12月02日 14:30:27 中财网

B股7个月内4次暴跌 外资席位带头"逃亡"

  由于B股交易清淡,个股在交易龙虎榜上露面的机会远少于A股股票。周三有多只B股跌幅超过9%,但由于跌幅偏离值不足5%,登上交易龙虎榜的仅有深深房B一家。不过苏皇亚洲、德意志证券、新鸿基3家外资席位包揽卖出榜前三。

  再往前追溯,苏皇亚洲8月份就开始抛售万科B,并在10月继续抛售。德意志证券在10月11日连续出现在皖美菱B和招商局B的卖出榜上。新鸿基则分别在9月和10月减持了ST中冠B和南玻B。此外,摩根大通、法国兴业、京山华一以及QFII集中的中金北京建国门外营业部也都曾出现在B股卖出榜前五位。

  10月热钱流出1800亿
  事实上,外资席位扎堆卖出B股只是外资离场的一个现象之一。

  早在8月份,国泰君安测算得出7月热钱实现净流出58亿美元。其分析称,在风险厌恶情绪上升的情况下,热钱开始撤出中国等高风险高收益的新兴市场国家,向发达国家低风险低收益的资产转移。

  中金则估算10月热钱流出中国规模约达到1800亿元。其指出,热钱加速流出背后的深层次原因是全球经济不确定因素增加和中国潜在增长率放缓的背景下投资者风险规避情绪增加。

  机构普遍预期明年中国经济增速将从今年超过9%的水平放缓至8.5%左右,而美元指数从8月底到现在升幅超过8%,对资金吸引力显著增强,凸显"避风港效应",一降一升中,使得外资撤离的脚步越来越清晰。

  根据周二发布的《中国外商投资发展报告(2011)》测算,若外商投资10%从中国市场撤离海外,将减少470万劳动力就业,出口减少860亿美元以上,出口增速降低7个以上百分点,使得全国税收总额每年减少1600亿元以上。

  外汇占款倒逼央行降准
  10月我国外汇占款出现3年多来的首度负增长,引起市场广泛关注。

  中金公司分析师陈健恒就认为,"外汇占款迎来了一个拐点"。他指出,中国贸易顺差持续放缓的趋势未来还将持续,这也将导致人民币升值速度放缓,进而导致热钱流入的放缓,从而迫使央行主动下调存款准备金率.

  央行在周三晚间宣布下调存款准备金率0.5个百分点。政策的放松,市场解读为政府将经济增长的主要推动因素由出口增长向内需增长引导。不过中信证券首席经济学家诸建芳认为,在投资不好、出口不好的情况下,希望消费支撑整个经济的增长,这是不太现实的期望。(.时.代.商.报)



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 中财网
Publish date: 02/12/11

人民币罕见跌停 热钱大"逃亡" B股急泻

人民币罕见跌停 热钱大"逃亡" B股急泻
时间:2011年12月02日 14:30:27 中财网

周五人民币对美元汇率罕见跌停
  兴业银行首席经济学家鲁政委:"又跌停了?扩大波动幅度迫在眉睫,不要频繁跌停啊!"

  对外经贸大学金融学院教授丁志杰:"今天人民币对美元汇率以6.3310开盘,罕见地很快即告跌停,据说是买盘压力太大。"

  据路透社消息,北京时间12月2日11:27分,人民币兑美元即期报6.3627元,较上日6.3635元的收盘价上涨,但按与中间价上下千分之五的波动幅度计算,6.3627元是今日人民币跌停价。

  而在前一天,即12月1日,人民币兑美元短暂中出现跌停。(.证.券.时.报.网)

专家评论12月2日人民币兑美元跌停
  兴业银行首席经济学家鲁政委:"又跌停了?扩大波动幅度迫在眉睫,不要频繁跌停啊!"

  对外经贸大学金融学院教授丁志杰:"今天人民币对美元汇率以6.3310开盘,罕见地很快即告跌停,据说是买盘压力太大。"

  据路透社消息,北京时间12月2日11:27分,人民币兑美元即期报6.3627元,较上日6.3635元的收盘价上涨,但按与中间价上下千分之五的波动幅度计算,6.3627元是今日人民币跌停价。

  而在前一天,即12月1日,人民币兑美元短暂中出现跌停。(.证.券.时.报)

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 中财网
Publish date: 02/12/11

CapitaLand:Consortium wins S$1.3bn prime Chongqing site; risks balanced (Goldman)

CapitaLand (CATL.SI)
Price (S$) 2.49
12 month price target (S$) 3.12
Buy
Consortium wins S$1.3bn prime Chongqing site; risks balanced

What's changed
CAPL-led consortium announced the acquisition of a prime site (GFA 817,000 sqm) in Chongqing (China) at Rmb6,536mn (S$1.3bn) to develop an iconic mixed development – Residential (41% of GFA), Retail (27%), Office (21%) and Hotel/Serviced Apt (11%). The consortium – a JV of CAPL (25%), CapitaMalls Asia (CMA) (25%), Temasek (30%), and unrelated parties 20% – won the 2- envelope govt. land tender (evaluated on design, then price) which had drawn 6 bidders. The land cost of Rmb8,000psm/GFA is on par with recent sites sold in Chongqing, with management guiding a total development cost of Rmb21.1bn (S$4.1bn) or Rmb25,800psm, over 5 years. With its 65% stake in CMA, CAPL has a 41.25% effective interest in the project or a capital outlay of about S$1,690mn to be debt/equity funded (3Q available cash of S$5.5bn).

Implications
The Chongqing foray marks another milestone in CAPL's aggressive 2011 investment build-out, leveraging its integrated mixed-development strategy to
enhance value of the site (one of the few developers offering mixed-dev capabilities). Based on its Raffles City China track record, we believe its effective development cost could be 5% lower at Rmb24,500psm, as basement Retail GFA is seamlessly integrated. We are less optimistic on Resi margins with guided ASP of Rmb30,000psm a tall order and the Office component to face pressure from imminent new supply; the real value creation in our view, would come from Retail, which could exceed the guided 9% yield on cost (Rmb30,000psm cap value). On balance, we see some downside risk to management's overall IRR guidance of 13-14%, but the development should still be mildly NAV accretive at about 4 cents (+0.8%). Chongqing also raises our CAPL’s China NAV exposure to 49% from 46%.

Valuation
Retain Buy & 12m NAV TP of S$3.12. CAPL trading at 44% disc. to fwd NAV.

Key risks
Slow turnaround of China assets; further policy tightening in China/Singapore.

An iconic development in Chongqing awaits
CAPL and its joint partners CMA (65% owned subsidiary of CAPL) and Singbridge (whollyowned subsidiary of Temasek) have been awarded the prime site at the Yuzhong District, Chongqing, China by the Chongqing Government. Including land cost, total development expenditure is expected to be S$4.1bn (on 100% basis). We expect CAPL’s net gearing to remain stable and below 30% in 2012E (vs. 28% as of 3Q11).

Leadership in the integrated development segments
We think the group’s main differentiation in the China market is its leadership in the retail mall and integrated development segments (including the Raffles City brand). CapitaLand has 7 branded Raffles City integrated developments in China. Raffles City Shanghai was developed at an initial all-in-cost (project development expenditure) of Rmb2.5bn in 2004, and doubled in value to Rmb5.3bn (in 2010), after delivering 22% NOI CAGR since 2004, underlying the Raffles City brand’s strong value generation potential.

Chongqing strategic location
The site is located at Chao Tian Men with frontage along the Yangtze River and Jialing River. It is also next to the traditional CBD and shopping district of Jie Fang Bei. The development will enjoy good connectivity as it will be integrated with a transport hub with a metro station, bus interchange, ferry terminal and cruise centre. It will also be linked to the key districts of Jiangbei and Nan'an by bridges which are scheduled to be completed around 2013. Please see Exhibit 4-5 for the location details.

The project comprises 1) a four-storey shopping mall; 2) two central hotel-cum-office-cum serviced residence towers of more than 70 storeys each; 3) four office and residential towers behind the two central towers, linked by a sky garden with a full floor of hotel lobby which connects to the top floors of the two central towers; 4) two stand-alone residential towers. Please see Exhibit 1-3 for more project details.

Growth opportunity in Chongqing
Chongqing has undergone rapid progression since gaining municipality status in 1997. For the last 5 years, its average GDP growth is 15.0% p.a., well above national average of 11.2%. For 9M2011, its GDP grew 16.5% - ranked first in the country. Given its massive land area, large population of 33mn, support from central govt. and improving transport linkages, the company expects Chongqing’s economic growth to catch up with that of eastern coastal cities in China. YTD-Sep retail sales in Chongqing grew 18.5%. Yuzhong District, where the development is located, is also the top district in terms of retail sales.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Goldman Sachs
Publish date:29/11/11

MASkargo CEO on leave amid domestic probe

MASkargo CEO on leave amid domestic probe


2011/12/03


While details of the inquiry are sketchy, sources say managing director Shahari Sulaiman has been away since early November 2011.
Malaysia Airlines Cargo Sdn Bhd (MASkargo)’s managing director Shahari Sulaiman has gone on leave amid a domestic inquiry.

While details of the inquiry are sketchy, sources say Shahari has
been away since early November 2011. It is unclear if he will be reporting back for duty any time soon.

It is understood that investigations started as early as August
this year and a domestic inquiry was done. The outcome is not
known. Just before November, however, fresh allegations were brought up, which led to Shahari going on a leave of absence.

Parent company Malaysia Airlines neither denied nor confirmed
the news.

“Encik Shahari Sulaiman, managing director of Malaysia Airlines subsidiary MASkargo, is currently on leave.

“In his absence Encik Mohd Yunus Idris, senior vice president Global Sales & Government Affairs MASkargo, is overseeing the
daily operations of the subsidiary,” it said in response to queries on the matter.

Attempts to contact Shahari were unsuccessful. The head of MAS’ continuously profitable air cargo division, Shahari was
named managing director in September 1 2007 replacing
Datuk Ong Jyh Jong.

Prior to that, Shahari was the general manager of cargo operations for MASkargo. Under Shahari’s stewardship, MASkargo won the Best Air Cargo Carrier in Asia title at the 23rd annual Asian Freight and Supply Chain Awards 2009 in Hong Kong.

Shahari also initiated the upgrading of the Material Handling
Cargo System used in the warehouse complex in Kuala Lumpur International Airport, to ensure smoother handling of cargo and an increase in capacity from 650,000 tonnes to one million tonnes per annum.

MASkargo made a record pre-tax profit of RM142 million in 2010.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.btimes.com.my
Publish date:03/12/11

Fernandes: Higher charges will hurt tourism

Fernandes: Higher charges will hurt tourism
By Michael Murty and Elvina Fernandez
bt@nstp.com.my
2011/12/03


KUALA LUMPUR: The airport tax increase will hurt Malaysia's tourism industry as air travellers will end up paying more in the future, said AirAsia Bhd group chief executive officer Tan Sri Tony Fernandes.
"I am ok with the landing and parking charges to go up as the charges have been low all this while, but why increase the airport tax that burdens passengers.

"If we do not stop this now, passengers will be paying a lot more in the future," he told the New Straits Times.

The 28 per cent airport tax increase is effective from December 1. Airport operator Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd said the increase is to sustain maintenance costs as the current tax is low by international standards.

"We have waited patiently for nine years for the hike and the previous amount of RM25 is very low by international standards and really nothing too hard to bear by passengers," said MAHB chairman Tan Sri Dr Aris Othman.

Fernandes has used the social media like Facebook and Twitter to oppose the increase.

"To all Malaysians, we won't allow Malaysian airports to increase charges for you. We will fight," he tweeted recently.

He repeated claims that facilities at the low-cost carrier terminal (LCCT) have not been improved over the last 10 years and security is a rising problem.

"The state of LCCT is worse than the Puduraya after its makeover and bus passengers do not pay bus station tax," he said.

Fernandes said the security has been poor over the years and just last week cars were stolen.

"We have been asking for better security for our staff for the past two years, but there hasn't been a single reply, instead airport tax went up," he added.

MAHB's monopoly over airports in Malaysia also makes it "impossible for me to go anywhere else to operate".

Fernandes highlighted the Prime Minister's move to cut the airport tax for Miri when it was unprofitable from RM51 to RM25.

"With that move, we developed the Miri-Singapore flights and had planned to start Miri-Bangkok flights to develop Miri further, but this stops us in our tracks," he added.

Fernandes also expressed his regret over the ballooning cost for KLIA2 and believes it could surpass RM4 billion from the original estimate of RM2 billion.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts:www.btimes.com.my/
Publish date:03/12/11

Why AirAsia is fighting airport tax hike

Why AirAsia is fighting airport tax hike
By Presenna Nambiar
presenna@nstp.com.my
2011/12/03


AIRASIA Bhd could be bent on challenging airport operator Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd's (MAHB) airport tax hike as a means to combat its own fast-rising charges.
Checks done by Business Times showed that the gap between Malaysia Airlines and AirAsia's long haul arm AirAsia X fares is fast closing in on a few routes.

A check on fares for London in January showed the fare difference between the two airlines was less than RM1,000.

For example, on both MAS and AirAsia X fares (excluding fees and taxes) for a return trip to Paris in January showed that MAS' fare was RM1,841 while AirAsia X's fare was RM2,108 (excluding baggage and meal charges) for return.

The differentiating factor, however, was its fees and taxes. MAS' charges stood at RM1,359 while AirAsia X's charges were RM606.

The increase in fees in AirAsia X are from a RM80 (return) carbon offset surcharge to be implemented in 2012.

It is believed that this charge is connected to the European Union Emissions Trading scheme, which comes into force January 1 2012.

The ruling requires airlines to pay up for carbon emissions, which have not been accounted for, in its air space.

"It could be because of all these charges that are coming up now. I guess they don't want to add on any other charges that don't actually help ease their own costs," an analyst who declined to be named said.

On claims that MAHB was profiteering from passengers, another analyst pointed out that a quick calculation of profit against number of passengers handled would show which company profits more from passengers.

A check showed that according to 2010 profit before tax (PBT) figures, AirAsia makes twice more money from passengers than MAHB.

MAHB made RM445 million in PBT for 2010, while AirAsia earned some RM1.1 billion in PBT.

According to this, AirAsia made RM42 per passenger, while MAHB earned RM15 per passenger. Only half of the 57.8 million passengers handled by MAHB are taken into account as it only collects airport tax one way.

"AirAsia is not being inconsistent to itself. Before it complies it's always visibly shown how unhappy it is. I think at the end of the day however, it will follow the letter of law and pay up if they have to," Maybank Investment Bank Bhd analyst Mohshin Aziz told Business Times.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.btimes.com.my
Publish date: 03/12/11

Dollar Crunch Boosts Yen Debt Demand as S&P Warns: Japan Credit

01 DECEMBER 2011

Dollar Crunch Boosts Yen Debt Demand as S&P Warns: Japan Credit
By Bloomberg

Currency-swap spreads are offering the biggest discount on yen loans in at least 14 years, supporting demand for Japan’s bonds even as Standard & Poor’s and the International Monetary Fund warn of its debt load.

The interest rate on a two-year basis swap to exchange dollars for yen has fallen to 0.85 percentage point below the three-month London interbank offered rate for Japan’s currency, the lowest since at least June 1997, Bloomberg data show. Japan’s two-year debt, which has the second-lowest yields among developed markets, offers higher rates than equivalents in the US, UK and Germany for investors who use the swaps.

Yen funding has become relatively cheaper as concern about the outlook for the euro union spurred a rush for dollars, driving Libor in the US currency to 0.51%, the most since July 2010. Demand for a haven prompted overseas investors to buy the Asian nation’s debt at the fastest pace in four years. Even so, mounting fiscal strains prompted the IMF and S&P to say Japan’s borrowing costs may surge.

“The negative yen basis swaps allow dollar holders to get yen funding cheaply,” said Makoto Noji, a senior debt and currency strategist in Tokyo at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc., a unit of Japan’s second-biggest banking group by market value. “Investors holding dollars can use the basis swaps to buy yen assets, such as two-year government bonds.”

Bond Demand
Rising demand for the nation’s bonds has helped Japanese policy makers close deficits without tackling the world’s biggest debt load. Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda hasn’t given a detailed timetable for a planned sales-tax increase and he’s failed to explain how he’ll curb swelling expenditure for social security.

Yields on 10-year bonds in Japan, where public borrowings are twice the size of the economy, climbed three basis points to 0.995% on 23 November, the second lowest globally. The 10-year rate was at 0.87% in Switzerland, where the ratio of debt to gross domestic product is 38%.

Japan’s 0.13% yields on two-year notes rise to 0.78% after subtracting three-month yen Libor and negative basis swaps. The rate is higher than 0.26% in the US, 0.44% in Germany and 0.47% in the UK, assuming the interbank rate doesn’t increase before the notes are repaid.

Overseas investors increased holdings of yen-denominated debt by 17 trillion yen (US$220 billion) this year through October. Net purchases are poised for the biggest annual increase since 2007, according to data from the Ministry of Finance. The pace of purchases is almost the equivalent of Singapore’s annual economic output.

European Crisis
The yen has outperformed all of its 16 major peers this year as the spread of Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis to larger economies spurred demand for haven assets. France risks losing its top credit rating in the event of further economic shocks, Fitch Ratings said on 23 November. The same day, Germany’s 10-year debt slumped the most since 1990 after the nation failed to get bids for 35% of the securities that it offered for sale.

Three-month yen Libor advanced to 0.198% on 18 November, the highest since April. Twelve of the 16 banks that contribute to the rate’s fixing are non-Japanese companies, with WestLB AG in Germany offering the highest rate of 0.25%, followed by Societe Generale SA’s 0.23%, according to data compiled by the British Bankers’ Association.

Two-year yen interest-rate swaps, a fixed payment made to receive Libor, closed at 0.406% on 23 November, 28 basis points more than the yield on similar-maturity government bonds, set for the most in a year on a closing basis. The so-called swap spread has widened amid concern losses on European debt will impair the fiscal health of banks acting as counterparties in the deals.

Swap Spreads
“People are talking about widening swap spreads caused by rising interbank rates,” said Katsutoshi Inadome, a fixed- income strategist in Tokyo at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. “There’s concern about the financial system overall.”

Elsewhere in Japan’s credit market, Daiwa Securities Group Inc. topped Mizuho Financial Group Inc. as the biggest manager of Samurai bond sales. Daiwa, Japan’s second-largest securities company, arranged 20.2% of the 2.07 trillion-yen sales of the notes in the country this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Mizuho had a share of 18.8%.

The extra yield investors demand to hold Japanese corporate debt instead of government bonds was 47 basis points on 23 November, compared with 266 basis points globally, according to indexes compiled by Merrill Lynch.

Pension Spending
Expenditure for social security makes up of the biggest portion of Japan’s 92.4 trillion-yen budget for the fiscal year ending 31 March, accounting for 31% of the total. A quarter of Japan’s population is over 65 years old, making it the most rapidly aging nation in the world, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Japan’s pension system is “failing,” said Ayako Sera, a market strategist in Tokyo at Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co., which manages the equivalent of US$298 billion. “Voters say no to policies that effectively reduce their disposable income.”

Noda backs former Prime Minister Naoto Kan’s proposal to raise the 5% consumption tax by the end of the decade to cope with Japan’s debt burden. He said in a speech last month that the nation “cannot continue to indefinitely postpone a response” to its debt issue.

The IMF said in a report on 23 November that concerns about Japan’s fiscal sustainability may result in a “sudden spike” in bond yields.

Downgrade Closer
Takahira Ogawa, Singapore-based director of sovereign ratings at S&P, said that Japan’s finances are “getting worse and worse.” S&P rates Japan at AA- and has had a negative outlook on the rating since April.

Ogawa said that it “may be right in saying that we’re closer to a downgrade. But the deterioration has been gradual so far, and it’s not like we’re going to move today.”

Five-year credit-default swaps on Japanese government bonds were 127.5 basis points on 23 November, CMA prices in New York show, almost the same level as those for the Netherlands, where 10- year yields are more than twice as high as Japan’s.

“The country’s bond market isn’t working as an alarm that should say ‘Japan’s finances aren’t sustainable’,” said Sumitomo Trust’s Sera.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: http://www.sharesinv.com/
Publish date:02/12/11

Friday, December 2, 2011

报纸将成为巴菲特下一个投资目标?

沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)再次高调出击,这一次被收购的是他家乡的报纸《奥马哈世界先驱报》(Omaha World-Herald),而他本人在这之前的数年间一直声明对收购媒体公司不感兴趣。《华尔街日报》的Erik Holm在视频中详细讨论了这个问题。



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts:
Publish date: 02/12/11

財經抱抱: 台股底部五大現象 散戶翻身秘密大公開

台股底部五大現象 散戶翻身秘密大公開




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date: 02/12/11

2011-1128-57金錢爆(感恩大血拚 台股天天都便宜Part3)



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date: 28/11/11

手牽手退出歐元區?請先詳閱歐元區瓦解劇本再作決定

手牽手退出歐元區?請先詳閱歐元區瓦解劇本再作決定
鉅亨網陳怡君 綜合外電  2011-12-02 16:40

歐債問題假若順利解套可當成噩夢一場,不過,隨著情勢越演越烈,絲毫沒有緩解跡象,就算六大央行聯手「秘密寬鬆」,分析師認為這也只是多了為歐洲帶來些許緩衝時間,沒有實質幫助。

時間總是會用盡,當警鈴大作,夢醒時分,歐元區內的人民口袋中的歐元紙幣越來越可能成為廢紙。ING 銀行經濟學家 Mark Cliffe 非常悲觀:「即使最狂熱的歐元崇拜者,都必須承認歐元區崩潰的機率不再是 0。」


德國《明鏡》周刊預先寫好歐元區瓦解後德國和歐洲走向的劇本,劇情是會按照情節走向悲劇,還是出現轉圜餘地,無人知曉,不過末日來臨之前先有心理準備,總會有些舒坦作用。

序曲:歐元告別式

其實早在 1998 年,哈佛大學法律學院教授 Hal Scott 就列舉了幾項歐元區垮台,成員國回歸本國貨幣的可能因素:歐元區以國家象徵鑄造硬幣;歐元區保留國家支付系統、國家中央銀行以及國家債務發行;歐元區只在有限範圍內整合成員國的外匯儲備

所以,為歐元舉行告別式,德國重回馬克懷抱,希臘重新發行德拉克,有可能嗎?

歐盟條約從未設置成員國退出的規範,一國要想揮手道別,全員都得陪同出走。經濟學家 Karsten Junius 表示,集體解散並非一蹴可幾,且將引發投資人大舉撤出資金的效應。因此,捨棄歐元,回歸本位,所有國家的經濟都必然受到傷害。

離開歐元區還會遺留主權債務問題。單一貨幣建立之際,原先的各國債務隨即轉換成歐元。在多數狀況中,這種轉變是不可逆的過程,也就是要將債務合約再轉回各國貨幣,不太可能。

決定性因素在於,揹負巨額債務的國家當初是基於國內法律還是國際法律進行借貸,每個國家的狀況都不一樣。根據 DekaBank,德國在國際法律下發行的債券只佔總量 0.2%,荷蘭則有 40%,葡萄牙更高達 60%。

債券勢將成為法律糾紛議題,導致投資人喪失對債券發行國的信心。投資人已經開始憂心其它因素。有報導指出,日本野村證券建議旗下顧客確認投資組合中的政府債券始否能夠轉換為本國貨幣。

廢除貨幣的同時,一定會產生犧牲者。許多市民的儲蓄將一夕之間價值銳減甚至血本無歸。歷史殷鑑告訴我們,貨幣聯盟垮台隨之而來的就是動盪不安甚至引發內戰。UBS 首席經濟學家 Stephane Deo 認為,歐元區「崩潰卻沒有帶來嚴重的社會後果…作夢吧。」

一旦喪失歐元,歐盟頓失全球影響力,過去辛苦創建的外交與安全政策共同體即刻歸零;一旦喪失歐元,昔日歐洲經濟巨人德國,在世界舞台的地位一秒變侏儒。

美國經濟學者 Barry Eichengreen 表示,歐元崩潰將會帶來災難性的政治後果,各國都會極力避免為歐元治喪的可能。「放棄歐元所付出的代價過高,除非在極端的情況下,歐盟成員國不會輕易廢止歐元。」


一段話語的重點往往都在轉折語氣。「除非,極端的情況下」此時此刻,歐洲的情況已和極端相距不遠。拯救歐元的成本─血流噴湧的債務和債務衍生的無盡利息─如此之高,是否會讓歐元所帶來的好處或利益變得微不足道?

情節一:德國離開歐元區之後…

德國充滿質疑歐元的氛圍,畢竟多數人對當個拯救歐洲的英雄興趣缺缺,可是卻不得不然,不過,德國的經濟成就很大部分必須歸功歐元。

德國出口實力強韌,而 40% 的出口轉向歐元國家。星期二,根據報導,德國出口總額將首次超越 1 兆歐元。受益的企業已經習慣於在穩定與實惠的價格中販賣自己的產品。歐元就是實現兩者的法寶。共同貨幣消除歐元區的匯率波動,歐元升值幅度並不比馬克強,也就是說,歐元的價格更具競爭力。

1993 年和 1999 年之間,德國出口僅成長 3%,1999 年和 2003 年之間,出口增加 6.5%。2003 年和 2007 年之間,也就是歐元紙幣和硬幣發行 2 年後,德國出口強勁成長了 9%。德國國有投資銀行 KfW 估算出過去 2 年歐元區成員國為德國貢獻了 500 到 600 億歐元的收益。

假使德國離開歐元區,這個優勢馬上消失殆盡。重新發行德國馬克會以驚人的速度升值,UBS 首席經濟學家 Deo 認為馬克將驟升 40%。其結果就是出口將變得相當昂貴。如果強健的經濟體離開歐盟,Deo 寫道,「最終,出口工業過去的亮麗表現將一筆勾銷」,失卻出口力道,德國經濟災難降臨。

情節二:希臘脫離歐元區之後…

德國經濟研究院院長 Hans-Werner Sinn 認為,希臘脫離歐元區確實能夠藉由貶值德拉克瑪來提升競爭力,乍聽之下彷彿美好,不過凡事總有但書:希臘欠的一屁股債還是得返還。而也因為德拉克瑪貶值,導致償還更加困難重重,持有高額希債的德法兩國也會因此受到拖累。

經濟學家 Dirk Meyer 推衍了一套希臘如果頭也不回的情節,德國必須為此付出 2500 到 3400 億歐元的代價,相當於德國 GDP 10 到 14%,相當驚人的數據。

UBS 經濟學家 Deo 的估算則更為悽慘,如果德國單獨脫離歐盟,GDP 可能會縮水 20% 到 25%,第一年德國人均支出將達 6000 到 8000 歐元,接下來幾年繼續負擔 3500 到 4500 歐元。而如果離開的是希臘、葡萄牙和愛爾蘭,德國每人只需支付 1000 歐元,而且僅只一次,永無後患。

ING 首席經濟學家的估算同樣十分悲觀。他認為歐元區瓦解會產生很多其他問題:股市一瀉千里,協助銀行擺脫困境的援助基金大洞永填不滿,以及歐元匯率直線墜落。「相較長期利益,頭兩年經濟損失的程度足以讓人窒息。」他警示推拖拉的歐元區領袖:「興高采烈將脫離歐元當成一種選項之前,決策者應該先謹慎思量後果。」


歐洲領袖們接收到到的箴言再清楚也不過。歐元區走入歷史,不但崩毀實體經濟,金融機構也將面臨險境。

情節三:歐元碎石瓦礫擊毀金融體系

2008 年蔓延到 2009 年的金融風暴至今讓人記憶猶新,不過顯然無人記取教訓,當時是銀行捅的大簍子,現在,銀行的問題依然未獲根本性解決。在這種情況下,單一國家脫離歐元區是致命動作。

硬生生把希臘拖出歐元區外,當然會引起該國人民恐慌。由於預期貨幣貶值,人們必定會清空銀行帳戶,爆發擠兌潮,急於將現金移轉到外國銀行。如此的資金大逃難足以毀滅憂患不斷的銀行。

歐元區解散,德國再怎麼強悍,也難全然不受影響。所有前成員國必須為新貨幣制定新的匯率,歐洲各國國民理所當然會以手邊保留的歐元交換強勢國家貨幣,例如德國馬克。因此資本大舉進入,引致德國通貨膨脹壓力。

根據經濟學者 Junius,躲掉這些麻煩,有兩種可能性。其一為他們以迅雷不及掩耳的速度離開歐元區,金融市場來不及作出反應。不過,此舉違反合法性,因此可視為天方夜譚;其二,透過資本控制的實施,未雨綢繆,事先監測資金進出。

第二種方式聽來較為可行,但是 Junius 還是潑了冷水。「從地理接近性、緊密的貿易關係來看,這是非常不切實際的措施,充其量只能帶來幾天的舒緩。」況且,他進一步指出,資本管制有違共同市場原則,與歐洲聯盟本質概念衝突。

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 鉅亨網
Publish date: 02/12/11

高盛匯豐預測 中國明年將降息

高盛匯豐預測 中國明年將降息

(北京2日訊)高盛集團與匯豐控股預計,中國將在明年降息,多數機構則認為,高通脹將使得央行在利率上按兵不動。


隨著歐洲債務危機加深,中國人民銀行11月30日自2008年來首次下調存款撥備。在週四接受《彭博社》調查的19位經濟學家當中,11位稱明年利率將維持不變,3位預計會加息,5位預計會降息。

匯豐駐北京的經濟學家馬曉萍表示,當局應謹慎行事,不要過度放鬆重蹈2008年全球金融危機期間的覆轍。馬曉萍說,在明年下半年通脹跌破3%之後,央行可能會降息。

明年或再下調存款撥備

馬曉萍表示,央行明年上半年很可能會將存款撥備再下調三次,政府另外還會突出稅收減免以及財政刺激政策。

高盛駐北京的經濟學家宋宇表示,隨著經濟成長降溫抑制需求,未來幾個月通脹將迅速回落。宋宇表示,政府可能會在2012年第二季降息,屆時消費物價按年漲幅,可能會跌至基準存款利率以下。

匯豐預計中國一年期貸款利率,到2012年下半年會下調0.25%點,至6.31%,存款利率降至3.25%。東方匯理、Capital Economics與恆生銀行也預計會降息。

瑞穗經濟學家、曾在國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)工作過的沈建光表示,由於外部不確定性在增加,而且內部成長動能在放緩,政府有必要放鬆貨幣政策,並推出更具擴張性的財政政策,避免經濟急轉直下。他說,不過通脹依然維持在高水平,明年預計會維持在4%以上,央行因此仍不大可能會降息。

週四的調查顯示,瑞穗、花旗集團與澳盛銀行預計,中國會到明年底加息。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Oriental Daily
Publish date: 03/12/11

傳寶鋼拋售建行H股4億股

傳寶鋼拋售建行H股4億股

(香港2日訊)《道瓊通訊社》日前指稱,繼美銀拋售建行H股後,又有大股東透過大宗交易,拋售4億股建行H股;消息人士昨日對《路透社》表示,本次拋售建行H股的是寶鋼集團。


《路透社》昨晚報導稱,寶鋼集團是在11月29日出售建行H股,售價為每股5.19港元,總計獲得現金20.76億港元。

11月30日,《道瓊通訊社》率先披露建行H股再次被減持時,是今年第三次被大股東減持,但沒有表明擬減持者的身份。

之前,美銀已在今年8月底與11月中,先後拋售131億股與104億股建行H股。

淡馬錫或再次「短炒」

持有建行H股在4億股以上的大股東有中央匯金、新加坡主權基金淡馬錫、美國銀行、寶鋼集團等。

因近期淡馬錫有「高拋低接」建行H股的記錄,市場普遍認為,淡馬錫再次「短炒」也不足為奇;故多揣測拋股者為淡馬錫。

香港《明報》報導,美銀11月出脫的106億股建行持股,迄今只有66億股被大股東中央匯金及淡馬錫接貨;其餘近40億股花落誰家,未有披露。恐怕早淪入短線炒賣的對沖基金中。

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Oriental Daily
Publish date: 03/12/11

Market rally a short-term relief, say analysts

Published December 2, 2011

Market rally a short-term relief, say analysts
Concerted central bank action doesn't resolve structural issues, they say


By CONRAD TAN


(SINGAPORE) Stock markets across Asia rallied strongly yesterday after the world's biggest central banks took action to ease strains in financial markets caused by the crisis in Europe.


In a statement at 9 pm Singapore time on Wednesday, six central banks led by the US Federal Reserve said they would reduce the cost of US dollar loans to commercial banks by half a percentage point.

Their concerted action means that banks outside the US will now be able to borrow US dollars more cheaply from the European Central Bank and the central banks of Canada, the United Kingdom, Switzerland and Japan to fund their operations.

'The purpose of these actions is to ease strains in financial markets and thereby mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses and so help foster economic activity,' they said.

The central banks also agreed to establish two-way swap arrangements among themselves to provide additional liquidity in any of their own currencies if necessary.

The announcement sent stocks in Europe and the US soaring immediately and the benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average ended 4.2 per cent higher on Wednesday.

Yesterday, investors in Asia, too, cheered the move, with most major equity indices rising 2 per cent or more.

The Hang Seng Index was by far the biggest gainer in the region, soaring 5.6 per cent to 19,002.26. China's central bank surprised investors on Wednesday evening by cutting the amount of funds that Chinese banks need to hold in reserve, freeing more cash for them to lend to businesses and households.

Here, the Straits Times Index ended yesterday's trading 2.2 per cent higher at 2,761.88.

But analysts warned that the relief is likely to be short-lived and that the concerted action by the central banks won't solve the eurozone debt crisis.

'For the moment, the tail risk of an accelerating and disorderly bank deleveraging leading to severe short-term US dollar funding stress has been alleviated, a lesson global central banks have obviously learnt from the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008,' said Kelvin Tay, chief investment strategist for UBS Singapore wealth management research.

'But the joint action is nonetheless a tacit acknowledgement that the eurozone crisis is spreading and impacting the short-term funding markets,' he added.

'As Japan taught us, structural issues don't go away just because liquidity is boosted,' he said. 'The structural issues need to be resolved.'

Indeed, European stocks were mixed yesterday, with equity indices in France and Germany trading lower in the afternoon. US stock futures were also pointing to a weak start for trading, after data yesterday showed that manufacturing activity in both China and the eurozone shrank in November.

'What the central banks delivered was short-term relief for liquidity constrained banks,' said Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economics research at HSBC. The action was 'merely a band-aid, not the surgery that's required', he added.

The last time central banks took drastic action on such a large scale was in March, when the central banks of the Group of Seven (G-7) economies intervened to stabilise currency markets after a magnitude-9.0 earthquake and resulting tsunami devastated parts of Japan and triggered sharp movements in foreign exchange rates.

In late 2008, central banks also intervened after the collapse of Lehman Brothers sent financial markets into a tailspin and interbank lending markets froze.




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: /www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date: 02/12/11

China Hard Landing Possible; Impact ‘Devastating’: Faber

China Hard Landing Possible; Impact ‘Devastating’: Faber
Published: Friday, 2 Dec 2011

A hard landing for China will have a major negative impact on global commodities and risk currencies, says Marc Faber, the editor of The Gloom, Boom & Doom report, who adds that he is more worried about a Chinese economic downturn than a recession in Europe.

Faber, whose investment portfolio is concentrated in Asia, believes a Chinese slowdown is already under way.

"The (Chinese) economy consists of many sectors and I think some sectors are already probably in a recession," Faber said to CNBC on Friday in a phone interview. "I think growth will be much lower and it is possible that we could have a hard landing with no growth at all."

Faber, who correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash and more recently forecast the stock market correction in August, says China's economy depends largely on capital spending, which tends to be volatile and has a strong multiplier effect on the economy.

While a recession in Europe could mean a gross domestic production contraction of 1-2 percent, he expects a shrinking Chinese economy to have a more widespread impact globally.

The commodities market, in particular, will bear the brunt of a China economic deceleration, said Faber. "If the Chinese economy grows at 10 percent, or 5 percent or no growth, it has a huge impact on iron ore, copper, nickel, anything. “

"It will have on the global economy a devastating impact via the resource producers of the world, whether it's Brazil or Australia or the Middle East or Africa," Faber added.

When asked about investor Jim Rogers' view that commodities will continue to do well in the long-run, in spite of a China slowdown, Faber said: "If I was always bullish about commodities and completely missed out on the crash in 2008, then obviously, having tied essentially my reputation to commodities, I'd continue to be bullish." Read Rogers' rebuttal here.

Still, Faber says gold [XAU= 1750.30 6.56 (+0.38%) ] should get some support over the near-to-medium term as he expects central banks in Europe and the U.S. to print more money to prop up their economies. As such, he advises investors to steer clear of the Australian dollar [AUD= 1.0259 0.0017 (+0.17%) ], the Canadian dollar [CAD= 1.0121 -0.0017 (-0.17%) ] and resources stocks.

Faber says he is staying well diversified with his portfolio divided equally in four parts between gold, real estate, stocks, and cash and bonds. He adds that he is keeping cash on hand to scoop up assets should markets correct further.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CNBC
Publish date: 02/12/11
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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