Saturday, November 26, 2011

關鍵時刻之債事風暴燒到亞洲來了!?

20111125關鍵時刻之債事風暴燒到亞洲來了!?


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date: 25/11/11

法意:股市是否重演2008年空頭走勢?



法意:股市是否重演2008年空頭走勢?
( 2011/11/18 16:38 法意PHIGROUP )
網友推薦:共有 167 人推薦 (有 212 人投票)
[文/法意研究部]在判斷股市是多頭和空頭的時候,有兩個要領:
第一,股市通常是領先景氣的。 第二,股市在漲的過程中,我們要去分辨哪一些類股在這個階段表現最好, 它通常會暗示接下來股市的走向,甚至是未來整個景氣的走向。

從類股輪動判斷未來趨勢
就好像交第一個男女朋友,大概都在大學階段;會結婚大概已經是20歲到30歲;假使不幸離婚,不可能是在10歲,大多是在40歲到50歲之間;有重大疾病要看醫生或住院,大概是50歲到60歲。

哪種類型的股票會漲,跟人的健康有點像;當某個狀況出現時,我們就可以推估股市現在到達什麼階段。



美股重演2008年空頭走勢?
從今年5月美股見高點到現在,類股的變化局勢,其實跟2007年底到2009年3月有相似之處。
2007年到2009年整個空頭走勢的類股變化: 首先看到必需性的消費性類股,就是不管景氣好壞都會消費的東西,其次是所謂的公用事業,像是水和電等。

第三是S&P500跟非必需消費性類股,這兩個走勢其實通常是一致的。

最後一個,就是表現最差的,也就是金融股的部分,可說是金融海嘯的最致命的核心。從2007年的高點到現在,金融股整個是一路走空,大概跌了80%,跌幅最重。

在S&P500和非必需性消費品則是跌了約55%,所謂的非必需消費性類股,包括像迪士尼、亞馬遜、時代華納和NIKE等。景氣好的時候,它的業績就會大好,景氣不好的時候,消費者在這方面的需求,可能就會相對減少,導致企業獲利減少、股價走弱。
公用事業以及必需性的消費類股,都算是人生必需品,因為不管景氣好或壞,都得用水用電用瓦斯。必需性消費品公司像是P&G、沃爾瑪、可口可樂,不管景氣好或壞,還是要吃喝洗澡刮鬍子,甚至可能增加在沃爾瑪這類平價商店的消費額。
這兩個防禦性的類股,就整個空頭走勢來看,是相對來說表現比較強的,尤其在2008年上半年,全球股市已經下來了,這兩個類股還是都一直維持在高檔,幾乎沒有什麼動,甚至是出現正報酬的走勢。

我們拿它來跟整個S&P500來比較的話,其實很明顯,就是非必需消費幾乎跟大盤連動,表現優於0.7%;但是在必需性的消費類股還有公用事業,表現比大盤強非常多,也就是它在空頭市場比較抗跌;而金融股就是重災區,整整比大盤多跌24.4%。



法人投資心態保守
2011年5月份以來,美股是不是也出現類似2008年的走勢呢?很不幸的,走勢非常的相似!
首先金融類股受到歐債的影響,跌了非常多,從高點以來到最低點跌了將近30%,也是這一次股災的重災區,過去一直強調到明年上半年,都很難有好轉的現象。

S&P500最大的跌幅跌了約18%,近期有出現反彈走勢。非必需消費性的類股,還是表現比較差,相對來講還沒有像金融海嘯那時候那麼差。最重要的是看必需性消費類股,還有公用事業這兩個類股,兩者表現非常強。大家可以注意到,必需性的消費類股,從5月到近期幾乎維持在高檔,而公用事業不跌反而漲了7%;這所代表的意思是,法人認為未來行情表現不好。

對法人來說,手上的部位不能全部是現金,還是要把錢配置在股票市場上,所以當預期行情不好的時候,就會將資金從風險性高的股票轉出來,投資一些防禦性的類股。

同樣來看這些類股和大盤的比較,非必須消費性類股表現比大盤好,漲了4.7%。必需性消費相對漲了7.2%,公用事業相對漲了14.4%,這兩個防禦性類股表現都優於大盤非常多。金融股一樣是重災區,相對大盤是跌了11.7%。

對照剛剛2008年的狀況,類股輪動的狀況可說是幾乎一模一樣,可看出法人的動作還是很保守。我認為歐債的高峰是明年2月和3月,在還債的高峰期之前,建議投資朋友保守至上,以持有現金為主。

「第一手的正確資訊」絕對是投資致勝的關鍵因素,法意PHIGROUP粉絲團每天為您精闢追蹤國際總經局勢,讓您輕鬆掌握情勢、精準分析投資!

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Yahoo!奇摩理財
Publish date:18/11/11

但斌:熊市的抄底与逃亡

但斌:熊市的抄底与逃亡 20111105 中国经营者






Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 优酷视频 / 中国经营者
Publish date: 05/11/11

欧洲未来或许掌握在德国手中

2011年 11月 25日 10:47
欧洲未来或许掌握在德国手中

尽管欧元区危机升级,但10年期德国国债收益率过去一周上升25个基点,达到2.15%。而在此之前,只要危机恶化,德国国债收益率就会下降,与南欧国家债券的收益率之差也会扩大。这一转变或许预示着欧元区危机的大结局即将到来,可能反映出人们愈加相信最终的结局将是欧元区危机因为欧元债券的推出得到解决,而不是欧元体系崩溃。

虽然德国国债收益率上升,且周三德国国债拍卖结果不佳,但市场对德国财政状况并不担心。德国财长沃尔夫冈•朔伊布勒(Wolfgang Schaeuble)或许明年就能够实现预算平衡的目标,比预定时间提前四年。德国短期国债收益率目前接近零或处于负值水平,表明投资者愿意花钱买安全。德国国债价格下跌可能仅仅是由于经历了一轮长期上涨行情后,部分投资者赶在年底前获利了结。

但投资者对欧元区的信心正在下降。日本基金经理已公开撤出欧洲市场;其他避险资产因而得益。11月15日10年期美国国债收益率较德国国债收益率高出30个基点(目前已略微收窄),反映出美国财政面临的挑战。英国国债价格也在走高。

这里的区别在于,英国国债和美国国债的买家能够清楚地知道他们得到的是哪个国家以哪种货币计价的债务,而欧元区危机则可能出现两种结局。一种结局是欧元区国家更深的融合,比如发行欧元债券,这意味着德国将面临更大的财政负担。另外一种结局是欧元区的分裂,每个国家都将因此蒙受损失,但届时本币的升值可能令德国短期国债受益。

因此,德国国债收益率的上涨可能反映出市场对欧元债券推出的预期增强。实际上,收益率上涨可能会使欧元债券的发行对德国更加有利。如果德国国债收益率恢复下跌,可能表明市场对欧元区解散或出现更大范围违约的担忧加剧,不过这也可能促使欧洲采取新的行动来拯救欧元。无论结局如何,市场都已认可,德国在很大程度上决定着欧洲的未来。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 华尔街日报
Publish date: 25/11/11

巴菲特罕見買進科技股 大象會跳舞果然吸睛!

巴菲特罕見買進科技股 大象會跳舞果然吸睛!



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube / 財經抱抱
Publish date: 25/11/11

股神巴菲特投資傲訣 近期動作如何解讀?

股神巴菲特投資傲訣 近期動作如何解讀?



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube / 財經抱抱
Publish date: 22/11/11

业绩表现虽疲弱 东尼看好航空业

业绩表现虽疲弱 东尼看好航空业
财经新闻 财经 2011-11-26 18:24
(吉隆坡26日讯)尽管本地主要航空公司业绩表现疲弱,亚洲航空(AirAsia,5099,主板贸服股)总执行长丹斯里东尼费南德斯仍“非常看好”这个领域。

费南德斯说:“2012年对亚航来说,将是梦幻的一年。”

他说:“亚航与马航(MAS,3786,主板贸服股)的合作,一直有人抱着怀疑的态度,但是我非常看好。

“我认为,明年航空领域将大放异彩,对两大航空公司而言,明年是很好的一年。”

对于两大航空公司所祭出的花招,费南德斯选择沉默不语,但他表示,他对双方所做的工作质量感到满意。

亚航今年10岁

他说:“这取决于你如何看待亚航——是短期业者或长期业者。人们忘记了我们只有10年经验,而且我们在起初的10年,打过多少场仗?未来10年的路,将比较容易走。”

亚航今年12月8日将踏入10岁。

费南德斯说:“我很乐观,我的脸上挂着笑容。当然,对于亚航与大马机场(Airport,5014,主板贸服股)之间的事情,我们并不完全高兴,但是我还是非常看好航空领域。”

他所指的事件是,最近大马机场提高了乘客服务费。



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 南洋商报
Publish date: 26/11/11

降级不断欧洲“垃圾俱乐部”又添两员

降级不断欧洲“垃圾俱乐部”又添两员
2011年11月26日 02:09
来源:上海证券报 作者:朱周良

欧洲的降级噩梦仍在继续。本周,欧洲“垃圾俱乐部”又添两名新成员,葡萄牙和匈牙利的债信评级分别被两大评级机构大幅下调至不具投资价值的“垃圾级”。

24日,评级机构穆迪宣布,将匈牙利的信用评级从Baa3下调至垃圾级中的Ba1级,评级展望定为“负面”。这是匈牙利主权信用评级15年来首次被穆迪降至投资级以下,此前,匈牙利议会刚刚向国际货币基金组织申请援助。

穆迪在公告中表示,下调匈牙利评级的首要原因是,现在无法确定匈牙利政府是否有能力实现财政整顿目标,以及完成对公共部门的债务削减。穆迪称,近日匈牙利向IMF和欧盟求援凸显出该国面临的资金压力。

背负着欧洲最沉重的债务负担,匈牙利也是最早寻求外部援助的欧盟成员国。2008年,该国就向IMF寻求了资金援助。截至去年,匈牙利外债占GDP的比重达到81%。

随着欧债危机的加深,匈牙利政府迄今已放弃了两次发债计划。但随着局势的发展,自觉难以应付的匈牙利总理欧尔班领导的内阁在11月17日向IMF申请援助,希望IMF能无条件为匈牙利提供援助。此前,欧尔班在去年赢得大选后放弃了继续接受IMF的援助。当局表示,向IMF求援可能被视为软弱的表现。

24日早些时候,另一家国际信用评级机构标准普尔公司表示,将维持匈牙利长期主权信用评级在最低的投资级“BBB-”不变,但会继续将该国列入负面观察名单中,以根据匈牙利与国际债权人之间援助谈判的进展确定下一步行动。

匈牙利并非欧元区成员,但该国当前的困境一定程度上也反映了欧债危机的对外影响,特别是对匈牙利等欧元区周边国家。

而在欧元区内部,继希腊、爱尔兰之后,葡萄牙也成为又一家被降至“垃圾”档次的成员国。惠誉周四宣布,将葡萄牙的评级下调至垃圾级,并警告称存在评级进一步下调的可能性,因为葡萄牙经济滑坡将会使政府在实施紧缩措施时面临更多挑战。

惠誉将葡萄牙评级从“BBB-”下调至“BB+”,并维持负面评级前景。惠誉称,葡萄牙财政失衡严重、各部门债台高筑、且宏观经济前景不佳,这些因素意味着葡萄牙的信用状况不再符合投资级评级的标准。

市场人士担心,如果欧债局势不能得到控制,未来会有更多国家卷入债务和经济增长的困境,这对欧洲乃至全球经济的复苏都将构成风险和危险。

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 凤凰网
Publish date: 26/11/11

The Reit myth busted

Business Times - 26 Nov 2011

SHOW ME THE MONEY
The Reit myth busted

Whatever Reits pay out in dividends, they will take back a few years later in the form of rights issues

By TEH HOOI LING
SENIOR CORRESPONDENT

THE high yields of real estate investment trusts (Reits) are tempting. And indeed, they have been touted as a relatively safe and stable instrument to own if one is looking for a steady stream of income. As such, many investors see Reits as a good asset class to have in one's retirement accounts.

But you know what? That Reits are good income-yielding instruments is but a myth. The thing is, whatever they pay out in dividends, they will take back - all and more - a few years later in the form of rights issues.

Here's what I found. Of the 17 Reits which have a listing history of at least four years on the Singapore Exchange, only three have not had any cash calls or secondary equity raising. The remaining 13 have had cash calls, and many had raised cash multiple times. One had a few rounds of private placement of new units which diluted the stake of existing unitholders somewhat.

For many of these Reits, the cash called back far exceeded the cash received. So, the myth of Reits as almost comparable to a fixed income instrument is really busted.

Take CapitaMall Trust (CMT) which was listed in July 2002. Assuming that Ms Retiree bought one lot or 1,000 units at the initial public offering (IPO) for a total sum of $960. For the whole of 2003, she received $57 in dividends. However in that year, CMT also had a one-for-10 rights issue. To subscribe for her entitlement, Ms Retiree would have to cough out $107.

In 2004, she would received $89 for the total number of CMT units she owned. That year, CMT had another rights issue, also one-for-10. The exercise price was higher at $1.62. To subscribe, Ms Retiree would have to fork out $178.

In 2005, CMT again had another fund raising exercise via rights issue. Ms R would pocket $124 in dividends but in that same year, had to return $282 back to the Reit.

In the next three years - 2006 to 2008 - Ms Retiree felt rich and happy. She merrily banked in her quarterly distributions which amounted to $404 for her holdings of CMT. Her one lot, after three rights issues, had grown to 1,331 units.

In the following year, another $175 was distributed. But CMT wasn't going to let Ms R be happy for long. It launched a big one - a 9-for10 rights issue. To fully subscribe for her entitlement, Ms R had to empty her bank account of a whopping $982.

And you know what, the cash call came in March 2009, when the Straits Times Index fell below 1,600 points, and many retirees were dismayed to see their investment portfolios plunge by half or more. Many fret if they would have enough left in the pot to sustain their lifestyle. Having to cough up more money for a Reit was the last thing that they wanted to do!

Negative cash flow

And here's the final tally. Since its IPO until today, a holder of one lot of CMT would have received $1,264 in cash distributions. However, in all, he or she had to return $1,549 back to the Reit so as to subscribe to their entitlement of new issues. That's a net outflow of $284 per lot.

It's the same story with K-Reit Asia, Capitacommercial Trust, Frasers Commercial Trust, Mapletree Logistics, First Reit, Lippo Malls Indo Retail Trust, AIMS AMP CAP and Saizen REIT in that what was taken back from investors was more than what was given out.

K-Reit has been one of the most aggressive fund raising Reits. Had you started with just one lot when it was listed in April 2006, you would have to dish out $8,399 to subscribe to your rights issue. Distributions amounted to $1,110, resulting in a net outflow of $7,289.

For Reits with at least four years of track record, only Fraser Centrepoint, Parkway Life and CapitaRetail China have not had any cash calls.

Instead of a rights issue, Suntec Reit raised funds by issuing new units to some institutional investors at a slight discount. Existing unitholders don't have to cough out additional cash, but they would have their share of earnings diluted somewhat.

Misalignment of interests

Reits are managed by managers, and managers are paid based on the size of the portfolio that they manage. So the incentive is for the managers to continue to raise money and expand the portfolio size. Sometimes this is not done in the best interest of unitholders.

The most recent controversy was over K-Reit's purchase of Ocean Financial Centre (OFC) from its sponsor Keppel Land. K-Reit has launched a 17-for-20 rights issue to pay for the purchase which was deemed by the market to be expensive at a time of uncertain outlook and when office rental is expected to ease.

BT reader Bobby Jayaraman argued that rather than be compensated based on factors such as the value of assets, net property income and acquisition fees, Reit managers should be paid based on a combination of growth in distribution per unit and market valuation of the Reit.

'If Reit managers were paid on the basis of distribution per unit and market valuation growth, would K-Reit have bulldozed its way through the OFC acquisition like they have done?

'The day K-Reit announced the OFC acquisition, its stock price fell close to 10 per cent and has continued sliding. Yet, its Reit manager will take home significantly increased management fees while shareholders would have lost a good chunk of their capital even as they bear significantly more risk in the form of higher leverage and potential property devaluations given the uncertain environment,' he wrote to BT.

Misalignment of interests aside, there are also unitholders who clamour for growth.

But while Reits may not be the perfect income yielding instrument that they are made out to be, they have proven their capacity for capital appreciation. Relative to the capital ploughed in, CapitaMall Trust has rewarded its unitholders with a return of 127 per cent. Most Reits have yielded positive total returns.

Instead of buying Reits for yields, some savvy investors only buy them when they see those with good quality assets trade at sharp discounts to their book value. For example in the first half of 2009, CMT was trading at 50 per cent its book value. Today, it is not as cheap. At $1.755, CMT is now trading at 13 per cent premium to its net asset value of $1.55.

Hence, valuation metrics which apply to a typical asset heavy stock would apply to Reits as well.


The writer is a CFA charterholder


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:26/11/11

Soaring rates at Italian debt sales rattle markets

Business Times - 26 Nov 2011


Soaring rates at Italian debt sales rattle markets

Yields on two-year Italian bonds leap to a euro lifetime high of over 8 per cent

By NEIL BEHRMANN
IN LONDON

EUROPEAN bond and stock markets remained under pressure for the seventh consecutive day after an 'awful' 10 billion-euro (S$17.4 billion) Italian government bond auction.

The Italian treasury sold eight billion euros of six-month Treasury bills at an average yield of 6.504 per cent - almost double compared to a month earlier - and two billion euros of 24-month zero-coupon bonds at a disturbing yield of 7.814 per cent.

Following the auction, 10-year Italian sovereign debt jumped from 7.15 per cent to 7.47 per cent before falling back to 7.31 per cent. Yields on two-year Italian bonds soared above 8 per cent at one stage - a euro lifetime high. The yields on Italian six-month debt were about three times the levels of six-month German bonds that were sold earlier this week.

All this despite the European Central Bank (ECB) reportedly buying, too. Investors were wary of accepting Italian bonds at lower returns after German Chancellor Angela Merkel stressed once again on Thursday that she was against the ECB issuing bonds to counter the crisis. Several German newspapers, however, have reported that she will be more flexible if the crisis worsens.

The soaring borrowing costs won't have a lasting impact on Italy's debt even as the Treasury prepares to sell 440 billion euros of bonds and bills next year, Maria Cannata, director of public debt at the Treasury, claimed in the past few days. The amount is 'not prohibitive' even though investors are frightened by the volatility, Ms Cannata said at a conference in Milan. Italy's first bond redemption comes on Feb 1, when it must pay back 26 billion euros for debt sold 10 years ago.

European equity markets, which have afflicted US and Asia stocks, slid further. The Italian share index was hovering around its August 2011 lows, the Greek stock market was at new lows, but Germany, France, Spain and the UK were above their lows. The key is whether the four larger European markets manage to garner support above their levels after being acutely oversold. Dividend and earnings yields (the inverse of the price earnings ratio) were well above German, UK, Dutch and even French 10-year bond yields, while there was virtually zero return on short-term money.

Fear, however, is predominating in the markets and several top company shares have experienced 3 to 6 per cent declines in a single day. Technical analysts say that both stock and bond markets are currently oversold, especially since the vast number of strategists are bearish.

The euro also suffered, declining to seven-week lows against a problematic US dollar to just above 1.32. Since October the currency has plunged by 8.4 per cent.

ECB executive board member Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo pleaded for euro-area politicians to take bold steps towards fiscal union to end the debt crisis, and said they should not rely on the ECB.

He added in Oxford, UK, that the ECB should not use unlimited firepower to backstop euro-area bond markets as the debt crisis spreads to Italy and Spain.

Germany and France intend to propose amended European treaties in coming days to impose greater fiscal discipline on eurozone countries in a move to win back investor confidence.

Meanwhile, credit ratings agency Fitch downgraded Portugal's rating to junk status, saying a deepening recession made it 'much more challenging' for the government to cut the budget deficit, highlighting a vicious circle facing Europe's debtors. Fitch cut Portugal to BB+ from BBB-, which is still one notch higher than Moody's rating of Ba2. S&P still rates Portugal as investment grade.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:26/11/11

Weekend Comment Nov 25: Banking on rating changes

CREDIT RATINGS AGENCY Standard & Poor’s has released a revised set of ratings criteria for banks. As banks around the world begin to be re-rated in line with these new standards, the local players stand to gain.

Nomura analyst Anand Pathmakanthan, in a report dated November 24, writes that Singapore banks are less at risk than their European or American counterparts. In fact, Pathmakanthan thinks there may even be some chance that they may see upgrades. “Given much stronger underlying macro and operational support, the impact is more likely to be neutral-to-positive, favourably impacting funding costs and valuations in the process,” he says.

S&P’s new ratings methodology is a two-step methodology. In the first step, banks will be assessed for their Stand-Alone Credit Profile, which assesses economic risks such as current account deficits and asset bubbles, industry risk such as system-wide funding and government supervision and regulation, and bank-specific factors comprising business position, capital and earnings, risk position, and funding and liquidity. In the second step, S&P will assess the likelihood of “extraordinary support” from the government and the corporate group. This will be factored into the Issuer Credit Ratings.

According to Pathmakanthan’s report, the ratings initiative will impact the credit ratings of approximately 1,000 banks across 86 banking systems around the world. New ratings will be rolled out across the next few weeks to be completed by the middle of December. S&P expects approximately 90% of all ratings to remain within one notch of current ratings. Around 60% will remain unchanged, 20% will be upgraded by one notch, 15% downgraded by one notch and less than 5% of the banks will see their ratings downgraded by two or more notches.

“We have consistently noted that Asean banks are a relative oasis of stability, ticking all the right boxes when one assesses key operating fundamentals such as profitability, capital, asset quality, balance sheet transparency and liquidity,” says Pathmakanthan. He points out that the 3Q earnings of the Asean banks were at or near records. Their core equity ratios average above 10% while non-performing loans average less than 4%. Loan-to-deposit ratios average at less than 90%. In fact, unlike their Western peers, the Asean banks have a problem of too much in deposits rather than too little

“At the macro level, banking systems are well regulated while macro fundamentals such as current account surpluses, forex reserves and government debt are all at very comfortable levels. In short, Asean bank ratings should reflect all these considerations and the ratings bias should be neutral-to-higher, unlike downward-destined US and Europe, in our view.”

In particular, Pathmakanthan is optimistic about the prospects for the Singapore-listed banks. If they see credit ratings upgrades, these would further serve to emphasise the stark differences in fundamentals between Singapore banks and Western banks, thus giving local banks an opportunity to win market share from customers who are seeking to diversify their exposure away from the Western banks. “Singapore banks have the capital, liquidity and reach to take market share -- a ratings upgrade would serve to ratchet up this potential significantly.”

The three banks have seen their shares fall in recent months as they have battled weak loans growth and pressures on their margins. Year-to-date, shares of DBS Group Holdings, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp and United Overseas Bank have fallen 16%, 20% and 18%, respectively. All three are now less than 10% from the lows they touched during the recent financial crisis.

Of course, that’s no guarantee they won’t fall lower. CLSA, in a recent report, says that the banks are “struggling to generate solid growth in pre-provision profit”. The brokerage says that although the banks are now cheap relative to past historical averages, price-to-book ratios are “far from stressed” and could push 30% to 40% lower if they match the lows of the last cyclical downturn.

Running through the results of all three banks, CLSA notes that although DBS showed the best set of results that were the most positively received, the bank had beat peers on “low-quality trading and investment income.” Meanwhile, OCBC saw stronger loan and deposit growth, less margin compression, declining operating expenditure and superior credit. However, it also saw a substantial decline in market-related revenue lines, notably life insurance.

CLSA has just one “outperform” call, and that is on UOB. “The UOB result was the worst overall, but held back by management conservatism, particularly in balance sheet management. Perversely, this puts it in a stronger position for 2012 in terms of sustainable growth,” CLSA adds.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.theedgesingapore.com
Publish date: 25/11/11

龚方雄称年内存准率如下调有望迎牛市


11月24日消息,在长信基金智慧之旅高端论坛上,摩根大通亚太区董事总经理龚方雄认为年底有机会降低存准率,伴随存准率的下调A股市场有望引发好几年的大牛市,而不仅仅是一波反弹行情

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: MSN中文首页
Publish date: 25/11/11

转型方案短期难见效 马股明年料1466点

转型方案短期难见效 马股明年料1466点
Created 11/26/2011 - 11:43

(吉隆坡25日讯)侨丰投资研究认为,大马政府提倡的经济转型执行方案(ETP)发酵期无法在明年见效,因此维持马股2012年1466点合理水平预测。

侨丰投资研究主管吴保云在接受《南洋商报》电访时表示,全球经济环境波动的情况显然没有缓和的迹象,“尽管被恶劣的外围因素环绕着,但相信大马经济不会掉入衰退,只是国内企业盈利表现会减少则无可避免。”

股市方面,他解释也因为上述原因,会在早些时候把马股评级调降至“中和”。

至于频频受外围环境打击的马股是否可依赖经济转型执行方案刺激、或甚至支撑起明年马股的走向的问题,吴保云说:“不太可能。”

发酵期仍远

“即使经济转型执行方案得到大马政府有效推动,方案下的计划发酵期还是未能在明年可见。我看最快也要到明年底或2013年才会对股市有帮助。”

他补充,加上明年全球经济仍会不稳定,因此,他还是维持马股2012年1466点合理水平预测。

对于相同的课题,艾芬投资银行零售研究主管纳兹里汉则在“第16届大马资金市场峰会”上,提出较为乐观的看法。

他表示,即使面对全球经济正掉入衰退的忧虑,只要大马政府提倡的经济转型执行方案底下各项计划能够有效执行,则马股还是有能力在明年突破今年达成的1597点历史新高,并上探1700点。

明年商品价企稳

纳兹里汉说:“官联公司和来自经济转型执行方案所稀出的效益,支撑了大马整体经济和股市表现。”

他表示,相较于印尼和新加坡,我国股市的跌幅其实较轻,这意味我们正在处于较大的回弹。

“明年商品价格预期将会维持稳定,这有助推动股市表现,特别是马股种植和石油与天然气占据高达40%的市值比重。”

纳兹里汉表示,大马依然有能力跨过全球不稳定的挑战,而像房地产、建筑和旅游领域,将受益于经济转型执行方案。

亚股倒地 马股失16点

德国总理梅克尔重申反对欧元区共同债券的立场不变,以及葡萄牙和匈牙利债券信用评级被降,抵销最新公布德国11月企业信心意外攀升的正面利多,拖累欧股挫跌。

周四美国股市则因感恩节公共假期休市。

受到欧股收低震荡波及,亚洲股市今日纷纷倒地,除了东京日经指数和马尼拉综合指数独善其身。

马股今早一开市就滑落8.68点至1439.31点,呈现从昨日涨势回吐的现象。截至中午休市,半日跌幅为13.56点或0.94%,暂企于1434.43点。

鉴于午盘也没有得到任何利多消息的扶持,闭市时,马股跌势扩大至16.44点或1.14%,报1431.55点,全日成交量15亿7793万股。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 南洋商报
Publish date:26/11/11

S-chips: Solid earnings growth, low valuation the main draws for these stocks

China’s economy may be showing signs of slower growth and the credit squeeze is putting pressure on small businesses. Yet, the bigger S-chips are holding up reasonably well, with some of them trading at low valuations. Of the companies big enough to attract analyst coverage, several have reported triple-digit bottom line growth. What are some of the S-chips investors can look out for? Those whose results came in above analysts’ expectations include China XLX Fertiliser, China Minzhong Food Corp, Sino Grandness Food Industry Group and Foreland Fabritech Holdings.

Urea manufacturer China XLX reported a surprise 263% rise in earnings to RMB102.9 million ($21 million) from RMB28.3 million. CIMB Research analyst Gary Ng says the stellar 3Q results followed several difficult quarters. “China XLX not only built on what was left in the previous quarter, but also showed its deft handling of costlier coal by enhancing its production and sales mix,” he says. Its core net profit of RMB111 million surpassed his and consensus forecasts and was already at 69% of the forecast for FY2011. The 292% jump in core 3Q earnings was due to higher average selling prices (ASPs), which outpaced costs in all segments. Ng says it is not done yet with its turnaround and rates the stock a “trading buy”. China XLX is trading at 7.8 times forward earnings. Its shares are down 41% YTD.

Tan Han Meng, an analyst at DMG&Partners, picks vegetable grower China Minzhong as the top-performing S-chip in his coverage portfolio. “It’s the bright spot among my coverage,” says Tan, who analysed the results of five S-chips. China Minzhong’s results were much better than he expected, with net profit coming in at RMB93 million; his forecast was RMB80 million. He says the management had delivered what it promised, growing its top line by 37% and its gross profit margin by eight percentage points. However, the results were not reflected in its share price, which has fallen 48% from a peak of $1.85 in February. The stock is now trading at 2.8 times forward earnings.

“There is still [an S-chip] confidence issue,” says Eric Ong, an analyst at Kim Eng. Ong says he is not surprised at China Minzhong’s good performance given that the company had acquired more farm land. “We did not adjust our forecast,” he says. “We try not to be too bullish given the credit tightening in China.”

For Lee Kok Joo at Phillip Securities, fabric maker Foreland Fabritech’s net earnings beat his expectations, rising 194.8% to RMB39.5 million on a 115.8% growth in revenue to RMB207.5 million. Lee says he had to revise his earnings forecast upwards by 23.7% to be in line with its performance in the nine-month period. Foreland Fabritech is in a fragmented sector, but Lee says it differentiates itself by focusing on umbrella fabric and by being innovative. “They have R&D and they produce different grades of fabric. For their high-grade fabric, they have tied up with a well-known umbrella maker, which has taken up a stake in the company,” he says. “This company has the highest ASPs and margins. They can compete on price or quality of fabric, but they compete on quality.”

Foreland Fabritech has done well in the past few quarters, growing y-o-y, but Lee says q-o-q results are almost unchanged. Revenue appears to be stagnating and the company will have to differentiate its product further to grow, he says. The management is tending towards expanding capacity as its factory is already running at full capacity. Foreland Fabritech is trading at two times forward earnings and is 7.37% higher YTD.

Lee is also surprised by the performance of vegetable processor and beverage maker Sino Grandness, whose earnings rose 13% to RMB44.6 million on a 42.3% rise in revenue to RMB273 million. “I didn’t expect the drinks business to take off so fast because it is a new business. I had also looked at the more established players like Huiyuan, and its financials were not so good,” says Lee. China Huiyuan Juice Group, which is listed in Hong Kong, has a single-digit net-profit margin, he says. Looking at Sino Grandness’s gross profit margin of about 40%, he expected the company to be comparable to Huiyuan, but Sino Grandness actually performed better. Lee sees growth in the company’s drinks business as it has a wide range of products that are well received and are yet to be available in the whole of China. “I am optimistic because of its scope to grow sales based on its current sales area, but it needs to do a lot of advertising,” says Lee.

Other analysts are not as impressed, though. DMG&Partners’ Tan says its earnings are only 10% above his forecast. “They did well, but the beverage sector was stagnant in terms of revenue growth,” he says. Tan is expecting growth to resume with the RMB100 million that the company raised from a convertible bond issue in September. Sino Grandness is trading at 2.3 times forward earnings and is 9.3% down YTD.

As for water-treatment company Sound Global and animal-drug maker China Animal Healthcare, which reported triple-digit growth in bottom line, analysts say their results were in line with expectations. Sound Global’s earnings rose 118% to RMB131.5 million while China Animal’s were 189% higher at RMB53.2 million. For both companies, the growth was impressive only because they incurred one-off IPO expenses last year as a result of their dual-listing in Hong Kong.

Selena Leong, an analyst at DMG&Partners, says Sound Global’s earnings are, in fact, weaker than expected because of higher-than-estimated expenses. Tan says China Animal’s adjusted net profit of RMB56 million was below his projection of RMB62 million because animal foot-and-mouth vaccine sales were slower than expected. Both analysts, how ever, continue to like the companies they cover. Leong says there is continued strong demand for wastewater treatment in China, and Sound Global has a strong track record of project wins. Tan says he likes China Animal for its exposure to upstream food production in China as well as its resilient earnings and cash-flow generative characteristic. Sound Global is down 31% YTD and is trading at 7.8 times, while China Animal has fallen 28% and is also trading at 7.8 times.

Finally, another S-chip that reported good results is Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings. Its earnings grew 40% to RMB1 billion, but analysts say they are not surprised, as the company had provided profit guidance. “It was in line, but part of the growth came from investment in financial assets,” says Ong of Kim Eng. He has downgraded his rating on the stock to a “hold” on concerns that the outlook for shipping may deteriorate further amid global economic uncertainty. On top of that, investors continue to take issue with the group’s growing investment in its non-core financing business, he says. Yangzijiang is trading at five times forward earnings. It is down 49% YTD.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.theedgesingapore.com / No 499
Publish date: 21/11/11

Can Tiger Airwaysfly high again?

Can Tiger Airways fly high again?
Chin Yau Seng, CEO of problem-plagued budget carrier Tiger Airways Holdings, must have heaved a great sigh of relief on the evening of Nov 15after receiving permission from Australia’s Civil Aviation Safety Authority (Casa)to add more flights and take on a maximum of 32 sectors a day.

On the morning of that same day, he had just admitted to reporters that the group’s Australian operations have continued to be loss-making owing to restrictions following a suspension by Australian aviation authorities over safety concerns in July and August.“At 22 sectors a day, there is no way we can make money."

Indeed, the green light to bump up the number of flights could not have come at a better time for the carrier. Its Australian services, launched in November 2007, had yet to turn a profit, although it had quickly expanded to three bases — two in Melbourne and one in Adelaide. In fact, in early 2011, Tiger Australia reportedly had been scoping out a location for a fourth base Down Under, as the carrier operated 10 aircraft with 21 routes criss-crossing the country.

But the six-week suspension, at a cost of $2 million a week, effectively sank any hopes of the unit swinging into the black. After negotiations with Casa (led by former group CEO Tony Davis, who was moved to Melbourne to take charge), the suspension was lifted but with strict restrictions. Tiger was forced to cutback to 18 flights and could only operate out of Tullamarine airport in Melbourne.

With limited flights, and only operating eight out of its 10 aircraft that are based in Australia, Tiger was also unable to take advantage of the Qantas Airways fracas last month, when thou-sands of passengers in Australia were stranded following a stand off between the flag carrier’s management and employees. The curtailed capacity and under-utilisation of its fleet, com-pounded by consistently high jet fuel prices of about US$130 per barrel, has led Tiger Australia to post a $27.2 million operating loss for the three months to September.

However, Chin remains optimistic. “Demand-wise, we are quite encouraged by the resumption of services by Tiger Australia. Load factors have been picking up on a month-to-month basis; we think that demand is still holding [up] especially for our segment of the market,” says Chin. “What we see is that an LCC (low-cost carrier) operating point-to-point can actually do decent business. Unfortunately, we’ve been hit by quite a number of events, some out of our control.”

Is the worst over for Tiger? How can it catch up with its fast-growing regional LCC competitors? Can the new management win back the confidence of investors?

With all the focus on Tiger Australia, it may have come as a surprise to some in the market that Tiger Singapore had been struggling as well with high fuel prices and slack demand.

The local carrier posted $12 million in operating losses, which it attributed to fuel costs, lower passenger yields and lower load factors. Despite tough operating conditions, Tiger Singapore had increased its capacity by 64% with the addition of six aircraft in 2H of its financial year, bringing its fleet size to 20 airplanes. Passenger load factors were just 76% in Au-gust, below the 80% breakeven mark, and78% in September.

Tiger has also increased frequencies on a number of routes and introduced new services, such as to Cebu and Davao in the Philippines and to Bangalore in India. “Demand on new routes and increased frequencies did not catch up with Tiger’s new capacity,” write CIMB Research analysts Daniel Lau and Raymond Yap in a Nov 16 note.

In 2Q2012, Tiger saw overall passenger numbers decline more than 23% y-o-y to about 1.1million. Load factors were down 7.3 percent-age points to 80%. While the average passenger fare held steady from the year before at$80 per passenger, the cost per seat jumped nearly 35% to $110. As a result, Tiger’s cost per available seat kilometre rose 20% to 6.87cents, from 5.72 cents in 2Q2011. “We don’t really operate a very high-margin business,” Chin adds. “The margins were also chiseled away by the high fuel prices.”

The group’s total revenue for the quarter fell 23.4% y-o-y to $109.9 million, resulting in a net loss of $49.9 million in 2Q2012, com-pared with earnings of $14.1 million the year before. There were exceptional losses of $8.4million, including a loss on sale of aircraft, as well as foreign exchange losses of $7 million. Tiger has also cautioned that it expects to make a significant net loss for the full financial year that ends in March 2012.

Last week, it released October 2011 operating statistics for Asia and Australia, which showed that marginally more passengers flew Tiger for the 12 months to Oct 31, compared with the same period the year before. On a monthly basis however, passenger numbers fell 10% to 408,000 compared with October2010, while load factors also declined, falling10 percentage points y-o-y to 77%. Still, the carrier says its Australian operations are seeing improving load factors compared with those in August and September.

Chin acknowledges that the airline’s continued aggressive capacity expansion is probably ill-timed, but says Tiger will still take de-livery of aircraft that have been committed to. Four jets will be delivered this financial year, although one plane will be returned to the lessor. That makes a fleet of 35, but Chin says the airline is gradually building up demand.“We’re entering the third quarter of the financial year, which is running into the year-end peak period,” Chin says. “So, we are hopeful that we’ll do better."

Challenges ahead
Meanwhile, Chin has the twin tasks of get-ting enough people to fly Tiger Singapore and Australia again, as well as expanding into the region against rivals Malaysia’s AirAsia andQantas’ Jetstar Asia.

Tiger is finalising its acquisition of a 33% stake in Indonesia’s Mandala Airlines, which is being restructured for a relaunch early next year. Analysts note that Tiger plans to transfer three or four aircraft to be based in Indonesia for the launch; however all Indonesian airlines are required to operate 10 planes and own at least five in order to maintain their Air Operating Certificates (AOC). Still, Chin says Mandala is on track to obtain its AOC in time for its launch

In the Philippines, Tiger cleared a major hurdle in its domestic flight partnership with Southeast Asian Airlines (SEAir), after the Civil Aeronautics Board lifted the cease-and-desist order that prohibited SEAir from using jets leased from Tiger for flights out of Manila to Cebu and Davao, which would be sold on Tiger’s website. The aviation regulator’s order had come after complaints that the partner-ship would violate cabotage restrictions applied to foreign firms.

As CIMB Research notes, Tiger is now likely to proceed with its 32.5% stake acquisition of SEAir, although it could be some time more before it is finalised. “Tiger is only interested in SEAir’s A320-fleet operations. SEAir will have to carve out its twin turbo-prop fleet from existing operations before Tiger is willing to invest,” Lau and Yap say. “In addition, Tiger’s acquisition is still subject to regulatory approval and fierce opposition from incumbents can be expected.”

Indeed, Tiger has had problems with domesic carriers fighting its expansion onto their turf. At end-2008 for instance, plans for an Incheon-based joint-venture carrier were abandoned following moves to block it by South Korean airlines, although at the time, the carrier said that the worsening global economic situation was “not conducive” for the venture.

More recently, Tiger has been struggling with efforts to set up a joint venture with Thai Airways. Thai Tiger was to have been launched in January, but the proposal has yet to get the stamp of approval by the Thai government. While Tiger says it is still in talks with the authorities, some industry observers have given it up for lost. Thai Airways said in August it will start flying its own budget carrier, Thai Smile, next July. And last month, it announced plans for an additional, even lower-cost carrier as it fights to regain market share lost to LCCs.

Getting back on track
Whatever the case, Chin clearly has his work cut out for him. The former CEO of Singapore Airlines’ regional subsidiary, Silkair, was first appointed to head the group as interim CEO in July. His appointment from the SIA group had been seen as the national carrier, which had the single largest stake of 33% in Tiger, taking an active role in the LCC’s management. But Chin soon took over completely when Davis, the brash self-confessed “LCC purist” who led the carrier from the start-up phase to its regional expansion, left to join airline investment firm Irelandia Aviation, one of Tiger’s original shareholders.

Over the past six months, shares in Tiger have taken a severe beating, trading at a low of 63 cents on Oct 18, as the airline struggled with one setback after another. While the counter gained some ground last week, following the increase in the number of Australian sectors it can operate in, it is still trading at less than half of its $1.50 listing price.

However, analysts note that initiatives to improve its balance sheet are in place, including a rights issue last month with $155 million in proceeds. Furthermore, Tiger will enter into12-year operating leases for eight of the 10 new aircraft being delivered in FY2012, which analysts note will improve the group’s cash flow and help finance future commitments.

In Australia, Tiger beefed up its management team including hiring Andrew David to head the relaunched unit. David was formerly chief operating officer at rival Virgin Blue, but it will still be some time before Tiger Australia becomes profitable.

DBS Vickers analysts Suvro Sarkar and Paul Yong expect five out of the 10 aircraft stationed in Australia to be idle as the removal of sec-tor limits will take time. In addition, given the sale-and-leaseback arrangements, aircraft expenses would increase. The brokerage has cutFY2013 earnings estimates by 42% but maintains its “hold” call on the stock, with a price target of 71 cents.

CIMB Research expects losses to persist, although not as severe as in 2Q2012. “Tiger Australia will only be able to break even if it resumes full operations of 66 sectors a day,” say Lau and Yap. Given lower aircraft utilisation and passenger yields, they are expecting losses of $88 million on the back of $731 mil-lion in revenue in FY2012, before a reversal inFY2013 with $13.99 million in net profit after$1.1 billion in turnover.

“Though news flow could be incrementally positive, we continue to see operational risks. In view of uncertainties on the macro front, this is certainly not a time to make bets on a loss-making airline.” The brokerage has an “underperform” call on the stock with a lowered price target of 50 cents, based on eight timesCY2013 price-to-earnings ratio, or the industry’s four-year historical forward average.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.theedgesingapore.com / No 499
Publish date: 21/11/11

Construction stocks: Infrastructure, homebuilding boost companies’ earnings in 3Q2011

Construction stocks: Infrastructure, homebuilding boost companies’ earnings in 3Q2011

With relatively small market capitalisations, and their shares mostly trading in penny-stock territory, construction companies have been largely overlooked by the market this year, underperforming the 11.5% decline in the Straits Times Index. But that could be about to change. Not only are more infrastructure projects such as the North-South Expressway (NSE) and new MRT lines getting underway now, but construction-related companies proved to be a key pocket of strength during the 3Q2011 reporting season.

Among the companies that delighted investors with their most recent earnings report was building materials provider Pan-United Corp. In 3Q2011, its revenues rose 50% to $136.9 million, while its earnings more than doubled to $8.7 million. For the first nine months of this year, Pan-United’s earnings were 67% higher at $23.7 million, on a 26% rise in revenues to $367.6 million. This strong performance was driven largely by its basic building materials (BBM) and port divisions.

Pan-United is Singapore’s largest supplier of ready-mix concrete (RMC) with roughly a third of the market. It also owns a 54% stake in Changshu Xinghua Port in China. In addition, the company has a shipping division, which has been facing tough competition. “The BBM division recorded improved sales volume from delivery of some contracts-on-hand. The division also saw higher selling prices of RMC, which rose in tandem with the increase in raw material costs,” Pan-United said in a statement.

Now, analysts are beginning to look at Pan- United more positively. “Pan-United’s 3Q results came in 25% ahead of our expectation,” notes Ho Pei Hwa, an analyst at DBS Vickers, in a research note. In fact, its earnings were well ahead of her $7 million estimate. She attributes this to the company achieving a “higher- than-expected gross margin of 16.5%, sustained for the past four quarters”.

Ho is forecasting earnings of $30.7 million for 2011, of which about 87% is expected to come from the building materials division. For 2012, she sees earnings rising modestly to $32 million. Shares in Pan-United are down 15% this year, even after the fillip they enjoyed in the wake of their 3Q2011 results report. They are currently trading at 7.5 times forward earnings, and 12% below the company’s net asset value as at Sept 30 of 52.3 cents per share. The stock also offers a dividend yield of 6.5%.

Ho has a price target of 63 cents for the stock, about 37% above its current level. What is driving the turnaround at Pan- United? While the global economic outlook is cloudy, Singapore has unleashed an ambitious infrastructure and public-housing building programme to ease bottlenecks that emerged during the previous boom.

Notably, the Land Transport Authority (LTA) announced in 2008 that it planned to increase the rail network to 278km by 2020 from around 160km currently. The most visible of these is the construction of the Downtown Line (DTL), which is being built in three phases. The socalled DTL1 in the city area comprises six stations. The DTL2 stretches 16.6km from the city to Bukit Timah, with 12 stations. And, the 21km DTL3 with 16 stations goes eastwards. DTL1 will be completed in 2013, DTL2 in 2015, and DTL3 in 2017. A Tuas extension line is also being built simultaneously.

The LTA is also preparing to build the Thomson Line and the Eastern Regional Line. But full details of these lines are yet to be released. Meanwhile, an MRT rail link to Johor has also been mooted. All in, investments in these new lines and extensions are expected to amount to $60 billion over the next 10 years, according to a recent report by Citi Research.

At the same time, plans to construct the 21km North South Expressway that connects East Coast Parkway with the northern regions of Singapore is going ahead. The new expressway is Singapore’s 11th and is expected to cost about $7 billion to $8 billion. It is scheduled for completion in 2020. The northern segment of the expressway, a 15.6km stretch between Admiralty Road West and Toa Payoh Rise, has already been approved by the government. In the past week, the LTA said a 5.6km three-lane dual carriageway will stretch beneath areas like Novena, Kampong Java and Ophir Road before emerging near Suntec City.

These underground tunnels require huge amounts of reinforced concrete, which Pan- United supplies. In fact, the company has the largest market share of that particular building material, and its cement mixers are a regular sight along the DTL1 and DTL2 construction sites and the Marina Coastal Expressway.

TUNNEL VISION
Another beneficiary of the underground tunnelling work is Yongnam Holdings, which provides steel struts for support in the excavation process. The company also supplies structural steel for the superstructure and roofs of commercial buildings, train stations and airports. Last month, the company announced it is providing the strutting work for two projects along DTL3.

For 3Q2011, Yongnam reported a 23.3% rise in earnings to $16.8 million on a 7.1% improvement in revenues to $86.5 million. During the quarter, the company secured five new contracts worth $54.1 million, two of which were for DTL3. The others were for the new Sports Hub, Asia Square Tower 2, and the Victoria Theatre and Concert Hall. These have taken its order book to $480 million as at Sept 30.

Besides benefiting from the infrastructure building boom in Singapore, Yongnam has also managed to clinch jobs for sections of the MTR system in Hong Kong. Now, Yongnam’s CEO Seow Soon Yong is also looking for opportunities to work on new metro systems being built in Kuala Lumpur and Jakarta. Of the two, Seow is more confident about Jakarta. “Our overseas job depends on who the contractors are because we go in partnership,” he says, in a recent interview. “All the Japanese contractors will be bidding for the Jakarta MRT, because the loan for the construction is from Japan. We are close to all of them.”

Elsewhere, jobs in Qatar are a possibility for Yongnam. The emirate is embarking on a major building programme ahead of the World Cup in 2022, which includes building a metro system and stadiums. “Obayashi is going there,” Seow points out, referring to the Japanese contractor. If it is awarded the main contract, Yongnam is in the running for some projects, he adds. “We did the strutting for the tunnel for the MRT station in Qatar, but it was a very small job, around $4 million,” Seow reveals. Yongnam is building sections of the Sports Hub in Singapore, including the roof.

Citi Research says the rate of Yongnam’s contract wins so far this year has been in line with expectations. But it warns that the award of contracts related to DTL3 could be pushed to next year. Nevertheless, with the infrastructurebuilding programme in Singapore and around the region still progressing, it would appear that Yongnam is set for more growth.
Citi forecasts a 15% rise in earnings to $62 million this year, and a 14.5% rise in 2012 to $71 million. Shares in Yongnam are down 20% this year, and are trading at 5.2 times its forward earnings. Citi has a “buy” recommendation on the stock, with a price target of 31 cents.

HOMES AND HOSPITALS
There is more to Singapore’s infrastructure building programme than just roads and railways, though. The HDB is slated to add more than 50,000 units of public housing in the next two years to alleviate soaring rents and property prices. With those new homes will come all manner of support infrastructure, such as schools and hospitals.

At the same time, private property developments are picking up pace, says Selena Leong, an analyst at DMG-OSK Research. “The en-bloc deals that were done in 2006 and 2007 need to start as well.”

That’s good news for companies such as BBR Holdings, KSH Holdings and Lian Beng Group. On Nov 14, BBR, a building contractor, announced it had secured a $179 million contract from the HDB to build 1,386 new homes in Pasir Ris Neighbourhood 5. As at Sept 30, BBR had an order book of $483 million comprising mainly civil engineering and building contracts in Singapore and Malaysia.

“We understand that there are several HDB projects up for grabs currently, each worth more than $100 million. With the aggressive roll-out of public housing projects by the government, we believe BBR’s strong track record would put it in good stead for more contract wins, thereby boosting its order book,” says Leong in a recent report.

She forecasts earnings of $21.1 million for this year and $24.3 million for next year. Shares in BBR are down 19% this year, and are trading at about 3.1 times forward earnings. Leong has a price target of 38 cents for the stock.

Another beneficiary of the HDB building programme could be Lian Beng. Last month, OCBC Investment Research initiated coverage on the stock, with a “buy” recommendation and fair value of 52 cents. “If private construction demand falls significantly in the event of a severe economic downturn, we believe Lian Beng’s track record with HDB gives it an edge to weather such decline,” OCBC analyst Benjamin Lim says in his report.

Lian Beng has eight largely private-sector building contracts worth $839 million underway. But Lim figures the company shouldn’t have problems securing HDB contracts to keep growing. “Given its track record in public housing construction [in our view, this is a key differentiating factor, setting the company apart from its competitors], it should not be a problem for the company to re-enter the HDB market.”

Lian Beng, which has a February year-end, reported a 74% rise in earnings to $19 million for 1QFY2012 (for the quarter to Aug 31), on a 21% rise in revenues to $136 million. OCBC Investment Research is forecasting earnings of $64 million for FY2012 and $68 million for FY2013. Shares in Lian Beng are up 20% this year, and currently trade at 3.3 times forward earnings.

KSH Holdings is yet another contractor that seems to be enjoying a healthy flow of construction work. Recently, it secured a contract worth $138.4 million for the construction of Eight Courtyards from a joint venture between Frasers Centrepoint and Far East Organization. In September, KSH also secured a contract worth $49.9 million for additions to Mount Alvernia Hospital. Other ongoing contracts include the construction of Ardmore Three by Wheelock Properties and a $70.6 million project, Centennia Suites, along Kim Seng Road.

KSH also has a $49.1 million contract from the Ministry of Education for the construction of two new primary schools, one in Punggol and the other at Anchorvale. In all, its order book stands at $377 million. Eli Lee, an analyst at OCBC, says in a recent results update that he expects KSH to win two to three large contracts of more than $100 million in value, taking its order book to $600 million to $800 million in FY2012-2013. “We understand that management is actively tendering for contracts while judiciously keeping to a 10% profit margin hurdle,” Lee writes in his report.

Like many construction companies including Lian Beng and BBR, KSH diversified into property development through joint ventures. It has four property development projects on hand. These are Lincoln Suites off Newton Road, Cityscape @ Farrer Park, The Boutiq along Killiney Road and Rezi 26 in Geylang, and three unlaunched projects. One of these is Hong Leong Gardens, which KSH acquired as part of a consortium in a collective sale.

For the quarter to Sept 30, the company reported a 26.1% rise in earnings to $5.3 million, on a 24% drop in revenues to $54.4 million. (The company has a March year-end, so this was its 2QFY2012). Leong of DMG reckons that earnings from property development should make up for any shortfall from construction. She forecasts earnings of $13.9 million for FY2012, rising sharply to $25 million in FY2013.

Shares in KSH have fallen 19% this year, and are now trading at about 3.4 times forward earnings. Leong has a fair value of 31 cents for the stock.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.theedgesingapore.com / No 499
Publish date: 21/11/11

花旗报告: 新兴市场本周27亿美元资金流出

(香港彭博电)忧虑欧债危机恶化,在截至11月23日的一周内,新兴市场股票基金出现了净流出。
  以乐志勤为首的花旗集团分析员在一分报告中,引述EPFR Global的数据指出,在这一周,自发展中国家股市撤出的股票基金达27亿美元。

  在不包括日本的亚洲市场,韩国股市的资金流出最多。

  德国的公债销售额比预期的少了35%,令投资者对欧债危机恶化越来越担忧。而德国、意大利、法国前天表示,没有必要发行欧洲债券。

  花旗在报告中说:“许多事情在同一时间发生。德国债券是最新的事件,再一次引起人们对系统性崩溃的担心。”

  欧元区借贷成本高涨、引发外界对债务危机恐致增长脱轨的疑虑下,全球股市价值本月以来蒸发超过4万亿美元。

  另一方面,根据巴克来资本的报告,同样在截至11月23日的一周内,投资者从新兴市场债券基金中,撤走了2亿零500万美元。

  数据显示,今年首九个月,投资者自新兴市场互惠基金抽出了260亿美元,印度尼西亚、印度、波兰和巴西加息后,新兴市场股市跌幅约为先进国家股市的两倍。

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date:26/11/11

中国高纤改善账目期限延长

中国高纤(China Gaoxian)在本月初表明反对在韩国交易所(KRX)除牌,韩国交易所已在本周二给予改善该公司账目期限到2012年3月15日。

  中国高纤发出文告说,在改善期限结束后,韩国交易所会再仔细考虑将中国高纤的韩国存托凭证(KDR)除牌的决定。

  中国高纤将在有任何进一步进展时作出宣布。

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date:26/11/11

2011-1121-57金錢爆(7000點保衛戰)



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date: 21/11/11

More Worries as Italy Yields Spike



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CNBC
Publish date:25/11/11

Cash Is King in Uncertain Times




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CNBC
Publish date:25/11/11

Hong Kong Property Sector to Test October Low




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CNBC
Publish date:25/11/11

Singapore Dollar Nearing Attractive Levels



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CNBC
Publish date:25/11/11

MAS needs to push sales

The Star Online > Business
Saturday November 26, 2011
MAS needs to push sales
By B.K. SIDHU
bksidhu@thestar,com.my

THE recent losses reported by Malaysia Airlines (MAS) gives an insight that there could be deeper problems affecting the airline. Sources said the laid back push towards raising sales may mean less revenue in the coming quarters.

Sources also cited communication gaps and lack of engagement between management and top executives despite the airline having a large pool of very experienced personnel. To be fair, the CEO has had some townhall and individual meetings with staff as he worked towards getting a business plan in place.

Many are curious over the supposedly “flip flop” in decisions over moving its administrative units to the KL International Airport.

“They said to move but last Friday they said no. However, there was a change in heart and on Monday they said the move was on again. Can they make up their minds once and for all,” said an industry source.
Analysts who listened to their recent conference call were left unimpressed but want to be surprised when the business plan is announced eventually in December.
“We found their arguments on how they intend to turn MAS into a premium airline a bit weak and this boils to the management. It was not impressive at all for now,” said an analyst with a foreign brokerage who requested anonymity.
Another analyst from RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd wrote in his report: “We have to admit that we came out of MAS’ analysts’ teleconference this morning feeling a little disappointed.”
It added that “the preview was dubbed as MAS’ grand turnaround plan scheduled to be unveiled next month but did not indicate any bold and dramatic moves that will turn things around, but just some logical things an airline will do in its normal course of business.’’

Whatever the sentiment, MAS reported a net loss of RM479mil on the back of an 5% rise in revenue to RM3.5bil for three months ended Sept 30, 2011. It partner AirAsia, however, reported a profit, albeit half of what it reported a year earlier. Both airlines blamed the rising oil prices for the downside.

Both MAS and AirAsia share prices dipped following their results but have regained some ground now.

However, according to Bloomberg data, 10 research houses have placed a “sell” call on MAS after the results announcement while 17 houses put a “buy” call on AirAsia. There is just one buy call and seven hold recommendations for MAS.

The average target price for MAS stock is RM1.29 and AirAsia RM4.02 according to the data. In yesterday’s trading MAS remained unchanged at RM1.30 while AirAsia was down 4 sen to RM3.62.
MAS financial figures show the airline reported an operating loss of RM156mil which means that it spends more than what it earns.

It cited insufficient revenue as a factor but the figures clearly show that the passenger revenue including fuel surcharges were up by 11% to RM2.7bil from RM2.4bil previously. Even after stripping out the fuel surcharges, revenue is higher at RM2.1bil versus RM2bil.

However, cargo revenue including fuel surcharges was lower by 15% to RM431mil versus RM485mil. Minus the fuel surcharges, revenue fell sharply from RM361mil to RM281mil and this was despite capacity cuts of 12%.

The two units that reported losses were Firefly and cargo operations. A source pointed out that had Firefly imposed fuel surcharges, the loses could have been mitigated.

MAS fuel bill for the quarter was RM1.4bil, which is 37% higher than RM1bil recorded in the previous corresponding quarter. However, 45% of that cost has been paid by travellers in the form of fuel surcharges.

Observers also felt there was no clarity in the announcement over the RM70mil derivative loss and RM195mil unrealised foreign exchange loss. An industry source said: “The hard push for higher revenues the past four months is not visible ever since the share swap deal was announced. Perhaps, they are too busy with cost cuts and they just began with their promotional activities recently.” “That leaves a vacuum which will allow other airlines to eat into its market share.

MAS has guided analysts to a weak fourth quarter but analysts are more worried about next year. The industry expects a softer travel market outlook in view of an economic slowdown and MAS has to contend with the debut of Singapore’s low-cost long haul carrier, Scoot, and more capacity added to the market.
“All these factors are going to have an impact on the market. Without a clear business plan that focuses on driving revenues up, it would be tough since MAS has a huge and inflexible cost base, though their yields have improved slightly,” said an analyst.

They also cited the need for a commercial director and someone to drive sales.

Sales and marketing used to be under the purview of Datuk Bernard Francis who left the airline five months ago and till now the airline has yet to appoint a new head of sales, a vital position since revenue for the airline is mainly driven by ticket sales.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: The Star Online
Publish date: 26/11/11

曾渊沧博士专栏 18.11.11

曾渊沧博士专栏
文: 曾渊沧博士 2011年11月18日 曾渊沧博士专栏
欧债问题峰回路转,希腊总理下台不久,就听到意大利总理下台。1998年亚洲金融风暴的情况也类似,当年,泰国、南韩、印尼的总理总统皆下台换人。今日金融圈里的国际大鳄呼风唤雨,影响的不但是股民,更是左右政治的力量。希腊总理帕潘德里欧突然提出将欧盟挽救希腊的方案,交全民公投,玩残了全球股民。不过,他没想到这一招也玩残了自己,欧盟、美国或公开或在背后出手施压,不但逼他收回公投,他的政敌也要他下台。

很肯定的,公投是民主政治体系中最民主的行动。欧盟、美国等长期奉行民主政治的国家为什么会反对希腊公投,反对希腊公投不是反民主行为吗?当初,希腊总理提出公投建议之目的也是想利用民主的大帽子,以民意来与欧盟谈判,以取得更加有利的挽救方案。如果公投的结果只影响希腊一个国家,那就让希腊国民自己决定自己的前途,自生自灭。但是希腊政府欠下巨债,若因公投而不还债,赖债,影响的是全世界。因此,希腊总理提出的公投大计最终胎死腹中,遭到欧盟的打压而流产。

谁也不知道公投的结果会怎样?如果公投的结果是反对欧盟的方案,也许希腊是自己进入灭顶之灾,全球金融市场也会出现巨大的灾难,这逼得欧盟不得不反对表面上最民主的公投行动。公投的结果可能是得付出更惨痛的代价,而民意也可能是短视的。

欧猪五国的种种问题,归纳起来只有一句话-“乱花钱”。因此,上星期的风风雨雨,我认为是德、法、美三大强国在背后推动,把不听话、不愿意真正节衣缩食的希、意两国总理赶下台,希望换个总理,新总理会听话,大刀阔斧地节约开支、加税、出售国有资产等等。

我说美国也是背后的政局推动者,理由是CDS的发行商主要还是美国的金融机构,不是欧洲,希腊违约不还债将对美国金融系统造成一定的震荡。实际上,欧洲的债权银行可能更希望希腊违约不还债,不还债可以向CDS的发行商要求赔偿,这可能比自愿减债50%更划算,因为自愿减债不算违约,CDS没得赔。

美股11月9日大跌,道指下跌389点,当天意大利国债孳息率(获益率(yield))超过7%,谣言满天飞,其中一项最令人震惊的谣言是德法两国领导人要另组核心欧元区,排除乱花钱的国家。不过,这则谣言只传了一天就没有下文。你相信德法会另组新核心欧元区吗?新的核心欧元区包括什么国家?能不包括意大利吗?意大利是欧元区第三大经济体,没有意大利的欧元区,这个新欧元区的版图就只剩德法两国及一些西欧小国,不组也罢。

仅两天时间,美国道指收复372点,只差17点就全面收复失地,道指再一次回到12000点之上。美股何以反弹?理由是欧洲央行出手,印钞票来买意大利国债。实际上这已是全世界的共识,意大利是属于“大到不能倒”的国家,欧洲央行不可能不救。希腊国债仅2,000多亿欧元,意大利国债则接近2万亿欧元,规模之大,已不是德国、法国、国际货币基金组织(IMF)、金砖四国有能力救,唯一能救意大利的只有欧洲央行,印钞票来买意大利国债,用美国QE2那一套方法。

投资者唯一不能肯定的只是不知道欧洲央行什么时候会出手。这一回,欧洲央行出手算是相当快,意大利国债孳息率一超过7%,欧洲央行就出手了。欧债问题搞了这么久,在德国反对之下,迟迟不肯学美国大印钞票来自救。最初,德国一直认为问题只发生在希腊,希腊债务总额不算太多,可以要求债权银行削债,要求希腊政府削减开支,可以由欧盟诸国借钱给希腊以度难关。但是,现在欧债的火灾已烧到意大利,近2万亿欧元的意大利国债,除了印钞票之外,我实在想不出欧盟还有什么方法来救。

有了欧洲央行入市买意债的经验,估计国际大淡友短期内不敢再造淡。不过,相信不少持有意大利国债的银行业心中依然不安,随时都会抛售以求心安。因此,问题仍未解决,股市的回升只是补回之前的沽空盘。我们也不能说欧债危机已经解决了,实际上,欧债危机的背后隐藏着欧洲诸国内部的政治斗争。出了问题的国家,总理相继下台,很明显的,所谓债务危机实际上也是政治斗争的一部份,国际大鳄也就利用和配合欧洲诸国的内部政治斗争,上下其手,疯狂炒作。

上个世纪70年代末期,我到过意大利旅行,觉得意大利货币里拉的票面值非常庞大,票面金额有好多个零。我们看看这个世界,任何国家的货币如果有很多个零,这些国家的历任政府一定是喜欢乱印钞票。最近法国总统公开说当年邀请希腊加入欧元区是错误的决定,现在看来,我也开始怀疑发明欧元这种新货币,将谨慎理财与乱花钱的国家捆绑在一起是不是正确的做法。

G20峰会结束,没有任何实质的成果。这是很正常的,过去所有类似的会议都没有任何实质的成果,最多只能达成一些所谓的宣言,即一些共同的理念与工作目标。因此,这些G20峰会只达至一些空洞的方向,其中比较重要的是大家都同意要向IMF注资。注资多少?谁来注资?下次再谈,也许是明年2月以后的事。许多人期望中国、巴西、俄罗斯这些新兴国家会增加注资,不过,很肯定的,新兴国家不会无缘无故注资,因此,注资的条件是要一段时间来谈判。

亚太经合组织(APEC)峰会,奥巴马又一次向中国开炮,要求加快人民币汇率的升幅。我留意到过去好几年,每逢中美领导人将见面前的一段时间,人民币兑美元的升势就暂停,好让美国总统公开发炮谴责一番。之后,人民币的升势就恢复了,这似乎是中美两国领导人在合演的剧本,让美国老百姓看,让美国总统面目有光。

欧洲衰退,新加坡与香港肯定不会有好日子过。香港第3季经济增长按季仅增长0.1%,接近零,但已好过预期。因为前一阵子政府高官不断地说香港可能出现技术性衰退,即经济增长率出现负数,对欧美出口大幅放缓,跌幅超过10%,楼价也开始下降,唯降幅不大,仅3%,成交量就大幅下降4成,地产经纪真的进入冰河时期。

目前中国收紧银根还没有影响到新加坡与香港的旅游业,旅游业仍有增长,澳门的赌场收入仍在创新高。但是,如果银根收紧的时间再拉长,影响了中国中产的收入与就业,新加坡与香港的旅游业会开始出问题。因此,中国政府几时会“微调”,对香港而言已不单是股市投资者所关心的课题,而是各行各业都关心的课题,中国收紧银根也间接影响了香港的借贷成本。

最近,香港两只与A股关系密切的股份成交额大增,其一是打正旗号投资A股的安硕A50中国(2823),其二是投资大量A股的国寿(2628),这两只股份成交大增相信是市场已传出消息,中国政府的“微调”政策就快推出了。过去一段时间,传媒天天在报道温州民企、国企、港商在中国内地投资的困境,中国通胀率已连续三个月下降。我估计通胀率还会再往下跌,现在,欧元区各国已肯定将全面紧缩开支来应付高昂的负债,政府紧缩开支的结果是整个欧元区的消费大减,经济增长率下降,最坏的情况是负增长,即出现衰退。中国政府是有“微调”的诱因。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 新加坡股市资讯
Publish date:18/11/11

欧洲恐慌带来健康调整,打破僵局需要新的动力

欧洲恐慌带来健康调整,打破僵局需要新的动力
文: 颜子伟 (译:麦美莹) 2011年11月18日 展望
10月份的稳健升势刚好在11月份到来前停顿下来。在11月上半个月,海峡时报指数再次在窄幅内交易。目前,海指在缺乏新的动力下,乐于在2,750点(支持位)及2,900点(阻力位)之间徘徊。

我们可能会说,海指在150点之间摇摆,可不是开玩笑的。从11月2日至11月9日出现了两次“大幅波动”,以至从11月9日到目前的形势,已经令很多投资者收兵离场,尤其是那些在10月份错过进场机会,直至10月尾在2,905点高峰时才进场的人士,后者可能是几个月没有入市,怎知一进场又被困住。

比较乐观的投资者可能会认为,10月份的涨势让海指走出阴霾,因为美国近几个月的数据指向缓慢的增长,可能会让其避过衰退的出现,而欧洲的情况似乎好转,因为欧盟决定给予希腊援助及阻止危机蔓延。

尽管欧洲传来很多坏消息,美国经济还是表现不错,尤其是在消费方面。零售业的销售数字是测量美国消费力的晴雨表,它出现了增长的迹象,尽管美国的就业机会仍稀少,而失业率继续保持高企。

最近几个星期,领取失业救济金的人数减少,跌至40万名之下。为证明失业情况有所改善,这个数字必须一直维持在40万之下,而同时美国企业为经济增添更多就业机会。

对欧洲感到厌倦?
虽然我们讨厌再听到关于欧洲的消息,但这是无可避免的,除非整个欧洲大陆在一夜之间消失。

没错,事情终于有了转机,因为在德国总理默克尔(Angela Merkel)及法国总统萨科齐(Nicolas Sarkozy)的领导下,欧洲领袖终于为援助配套达成共识,令情况得以平静下来。

就好像治疗肿瘤一样,欧洲尝试把经济治理好之前,首先需要提供一个救援配套来令情况平静下来。一旦癌细胞停止扩散后,欧盟领袖便可以提出更多有效方案来帮助整个区域走出阴霾,当然这可能意味着要进行很多商讨,并甘于受苦,像严厉执行一些紧缩措施等。

在10月初,刚好欧洲宣布措施来应付危机前,股市可能已经见底,但没有人有信心及勇敢地说欧洲已经度过最艰难的时期。当然他们还要制订救援配套的细则;确保希腊在最后一轮的援助金用完前不会倒下;以至确保每一个成员国都严厉执行各自的紧缩措施。

然而,情况已经平静许多,而股市也没有像几个月前那样大起大落,因为当时欧洲似乎没有能力有效地应付危机。债务累累的欧洲,目前已经把焦点从周边国家像希腊、爱尔兰及葡萄牙转而至意大利,并可能日后也包括西班牙。

一个接一个,一浪接一浪的袭击来到了意大利。它的10年期债券收益率达到7%,一个金融市场认为是危险的水平,因此这个欧洲第三大经济体的借贷成本提高了。

有趣的是,所有负面的消息都被夸大,而正面消息却受到很少关注或者是没有得到报道,像爱尔兰可能提早走出困境。

或许唯一一个让意大利停止受到关注的方法是其向欧洲金融稳定基金(EFSF)借钱来还债,否则投资者将会继续对其失去信心。

虽然11月9日的重挫是因为意大利债券的收益率升高导致,但股市恢复得很快。它再次走下坡是因为金融市场质疑新上任的希腊总理帕帕季莫斯(Lucas Papademos)及意大利总理马里奥蒙蒂(Mario Monti)所领导的政府是否有能力带领国家度过危机。

问题存在但市场企稳
尽管同样的问题带来新的或重复一样的恐慌,就好像一张破旧的唱片重复在播一样。每一次的调整都会马上遇到同等幅度的回弹。

欧洲危机不会像投资者所渴求般,很快就会过去,理由刚刚已经提到。因此,我们应该继续保持审慎乐观,并期待欧盟能慢慢稳步地走出危机,就好像美国般,尽管它们背负着庞大的债务。

印更多钞票似乎是唯一可以帮助欧洲解困的方法。它与美国不同,后者可以发行债券来筹资,但欧洲没有这个资格,因为除了德国外,欧洲没有其他国家可以承担有关债务,但德国人不愿意承担。

世界其他国家可以提供的帮助不多,中国已经宣布有意增加入口来刺激增长,这可能是市场能够企稳的原因之一,因为在2009年对上一次发生金融危机的时候,中国推出一连串的刺激措施,而环球市场涨升了一年。

更重要的是,中国的增长慢慢放缓,而通胀已经回落至一个足以打动决策者愿意放松中国货币政策的水平。中国肯定会在不久后放松其货币政策,但中国政府需要确定通胀继续回落,而增长的跌幅刚好可以让货币政策放松。

即使如此,我怀疑货币政策只会在某些经济领域放松,而房产市场仍然会受到钳制。银行可能将会开始放贷,但只是给予某些行业,而投资将会继续聚焦于基建发展。

留意牛市的发展
10月份股市大升,牛市短暂出现,但目前稍作喘息。值得大家注意的是,道琼斯工商指数冲破了在11,600点的阻力,而德国DAX指数则尝试重上6,000点。

虽然牛市在短期内依然企稳,并尝试进入中期牛市,但我们必须留意可能会令市场再次掉进熊市的新因素出现。不过,过去几个星期出现的负面消息,像希腊提议公投及欧洲债券的收益率提高等,并没有令股市摇摆。

若要中期牛市出现,道指必须越过12,000点,并上探在12,750点的下一个阻力位。至于德国DAX指数,6,400点依然是一个难以冲破的关口。海指则必须升破2,900点并保持在其上。

同样地,留意恒生指数位于20,000点及21,000点的阻力位。

如果海指大幅滑落至2,650点之下,那么事情的发展便难以猜测,所以大家必须谨慎行事。

再次提醒大家,保持乐观,但要十分小心。



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 新加坡股市资讯
Publish date:18/11/11

喜迎牛市或慎防熊市?

喜迎牛市或慎防熊市?
文: Andy Chiok (译:杨佳文) 2011年11月18日 展望
标准普尔500指数于2011年第三季收报1,131.42点,略低于去年同期的1,141点。那时候,市场预测标普成份股公司将取得87.50美元的12个月远期盈利,结果这些企业的表现超越预期,它们的远期盈利达到93.30美元。截至今年第三季,标普Capital IQ说市场认为12个月远期盈利将为104美元。

这样的情况是否过于乐观了?

尽管经济前景不明朗,标普500成份股公司的盈利势头持续强劲。另外,企业分析师再度调低欧洲企业的盈利预测,尽管欧元区在解决债务危机方面已取得进展。

截至10月3日,企业盈利增长率为13.1%。标普成份股中有433家企业(87%)已发布了第三季度业绩,其中70%的业绩超越预测,10%与预测相符,而20%低于预测。

尽管分析师调低了2012年的增长预测,各家企业料将取得创纪录的年度销售增幅。根据彭博社(Bloomberg)的数据,企业收入将在2011年提高11%至每股1,052.42美元,而由于有43%企业的收入未达其预测,它将明年的预估数字调低了1%。

谨慎看涨

标准普尔(S&P)指出,若企业盈利介于每股105至110美元,而美国的国内生产总值(GDP)增长达到2%或以上,“应能令股市的表现向好”。加上历来温和的12倍远期本益比,介于105-110美元的2012年预估盈利,意味着标普500指数在2012年首季将达到1,260点至1,320点。

S&P认为,美国股市正在调整其固有估值,让盈利预测更加适中及具前瞻性。

它说:“虽然目前的盈利高于预期,而远期盈利预测遭调低,但这对投资者来说不一定是坏消息,只要盈利能够‘软着陆’至较为合理的水平。”

专家的见解

根据罗素投资(Russell Investments)的最新调查报告《投资经理展望(Investment Manager Outlook)》(每个季度结束前进行调查),79%的受访者认为美国经济并没有陷入双底衰退,而后者当中的78%所提出的理由为美国企业的财务状况良好,企业盈利也偏高。

罗素投资的客户组合经理Rachel Carroll表示:“一连串的负面经济消息确实打击了投资者的信心,我们认为市场仍会大幅波动。但专业的基金经理大都专注于基本面,如支撑整体乐观情绪的强劲企业盈利增长,尤其是美国大型企业股。”

她也表示:“虽然我们认为基金经理不看好整体经济增长是很现实,但集体乐观情绪和他们对市场估值的看法,显示他们认为股市出现买入良机。

欧元区的债务问题反反复复,令市场波动不断,这是目前主导市场走向的课题,也是可能危及全球经济稳定的最大威胁。投资者往往会在股市出现波动时选择撤离股市,但把目光放得长远的专业基金经理却会从中寻觅良机,这正是投资者应该任用合格的财务顾问,以为他们分析和解释市场动态的原因。

静候收获
在9月份,摩根士丹利世界指数(MSCI All Country World Index)所带来的回报为-9.5%,标普指数所带来的回报则为-7%。

美林财富管理(Merrill Lynch Wealth Management)在其每月汇报中表示,它认为全球资本市场正进入投降式抛售期的最终阶段,投资者必须极为小心,但年底前可能会出现投资良机。在这个时候,投资者不应该因恐慌而抛售,也不应该逞能冒险。

美林财富管理说:“2011年第三季的确令投资者遭受不少打击。全球股市从各自的最高位滑落了18-23%。许多领域都进入了全面的调整,市场波动也大幅提高。目前,避险情绪仍主导市场的走向。”

投资者目前的两大疑虑仍是:

 欧美是否已经或正陷入衰退?这对企业盈利和股市会有怎样的影响?
 财务紧缩措施对经济增长的影响会有多大?执政者已无法再实行更多政策来刺激经济了吗?

投资者此时应小心谨慎,因为虽然股票比债券来得便宜,但近期内却缺乏推动股价上涨的因素。信贷市场往往没有将极严重的违约情况考虑在内。

美林财富管理表示:“基于2012年的全球经济增长可能介于3.5%至4.5%,我们认为企业仍可能以低个位数增长。虽然这表示分析师的预测必将调低,而且也存在着5-10%的下跌风险,但我们认为整个过程将在年底前出现,市场的投降式抛售期也将结束,市场状况将变得较为理想。

经济前景
虽然美国经济分析局报美国的2011年第三季实质国内生产总值(GDP)增长为2.5%,美国经济咨商局的宏观经济分析部门主管Kathy Bostjancic表示:“这个夏天所取得的优于预期表现似乎无法持续下去。”

房屋市场持续低靡,但消费者更关注的是疲弱的劳动力市场。目前的跌势已回到了2008/09年的水平。Bostjancic说:“疲弱的情绪可能会限制佳节期间及冬季的消费增幅。另外,国家及地方政府削减开支将影响经济。”

穆迪分析(Moody’s Analytics)已将美国经济今年和明年的增长前景预测调低,并认为美国经济前景“大幅转弱”。国际货币基金组织(IMF)也下调了美国经济至2012年的展望,因为其增长缓慢,加上欧洲可能无法顺利解决债务危机。高盛(Goldman Sachs)也调低了前景预测,并认为失业率可能会在2012年之前提高至9.25%。

那我们究竟将迎来牛市还是熊市呢?之后是否会出现可趁低买入及逢高卖出的时机?投资者最好还是听从罗素投资客户组合经理Rachel Carroll的忠告,任用合格的投资顾问来帮你过滤掉市场杂讯。





Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 新加坡股市资讯
Publish date:18/11/11

欧洲“铁达尼”:理想被淹没?

欧洲“铁达尼”:理想被淹没?
文: 李廷伟, 汪文龙 , 王秋莹 (译:朱爱伦) 2011年11月18日 展望
没错,欧元区的这出“大戏”实在拖得太长了。第三季度的业绩报告已纷纷出炉,但却没有为投资者和市场观察人士带来所期待的市场动力。事实上,欧元区债务危机令市场持续波动了好一段日子,在过去两周尤为显著。

默克尔(Angela Merkel)、贝鲁斯科尼(Silvio Berlusconi)和生不逢时的希腊总理帕潘德里欧(George Papandreou) (建议公投是大错特错?)等名字相信大家已一点也不陌生,因为媒体不断在报导他们接下来会怎样控制局势。

希腊于2011年7月获得的第二轮援助配套被市场观察人士视为无济于事,因为分析师认为希腊违约的可能性高达98%。这令市场对欧元区及欧洲银行的信心下滑,由于谣传希腊债券所带来的亏损将导致资本不足的情况出现。

援助配套对债务危机的帮助微不足道令市场更担心希腊的问题将演变为一场欧洲灾难,因为如果像意大利或西班牙等比希腊大出许多的经济体需要援助的话,欧元区可能无法负担更加庞大的援助金。当意大利10年期政府债券的获益率升破7%的危险水平时,市场紧张的情绪也随之而升至新高,这意味着市场非常担忧意大利能否持守国债,并导致亚洲股市在11月10日(星期四)全面受挫。

让我们回顾一下这出“大戏”到目前为止的“剧情”发展(请参阅图表-欧元区近期对海指的影响)。

欧债危机如何收拾

欧债危机将有一个怎样的结局,它将在什么时候、如何地了结呢?

欧盟区的领袖们提出了不同的意见,他们很可能基于自身的既得利益而各怀计策。但经济师和分析师指出,事情的结果可能不会让所有的人都感到称心如意,因为两大潜在结果已逐渐地显现出来:其一是欧洲经济货币联盟(European Economic and Monetary Union)将去弱留强,把“肿瘤”切除;或是欧元区保持现状,并竭尽所能不让自己面临解体的厄运。

这两个潜在结果之间的最大不同点是金融市场必须承受的打击有多大,有多深。笔者认为,在这个时候要求某些成员国退出欧元区将为金融市场带来更大的动荡,当然也免不了对每个人造成极大的打击。但全球经济是能够随着时光的流逝而从中恢复过来的,阿根廷、俄罗斯及近期的冰岛都是一些很好的例子。然而,我们目前所面对的不是单一国家的问题,而是一整个地区的危机,因此,要求成员国退出欧元区可能会带来不利的后果。

无论如何,冰岛证实了一点,就是一个国家即使走上了违约的道路,它也能有复苏的一天。冰岛三家最大规模的银行在2008年大肆“挥霍撒金”,所支出的1,000亿元金额比冰岛的140亿元国内生产总值(GDP)高出逾七倍,当时冰岛毅然决定违约,并成为首个在2008年金融危机期间宣告破产的国家。尽管受到极大的压力,冰岛不顾常理,忍痛让其银行系统崩溃,并拒绝使用纳税人的钱来替私人银行偿还外债。此举令到冰岛的银行系统死而复生,尽管系统的规模大幅度缩小。冰岛让其货币贬值也有助它在宣告破产以来逐渐地偿还和减轻债务。

冰岛现在已回到正轨,并录得经济增长,其失业率也从衰退期间的高位下降至6%以下。冰岛总统在一项访谈中表示,冰岛成功复苏的故事令人对主导着欧美政策和国际会谈的一些正规的金融及官方政策置疑。

普林斯顿大学(Princeton University)的经济系教授保罗·克鲁格曼(Paul Krugman)对目前欧元区的决策方向有这样的看法:“我还是难以相信欧元区会失败,但欧洲为避免失败而会作出必要的行动似乎也一样令人难以相信。当无法抵挡的力量(危机)与停滞不前的物体(决策人无法达成共识)相遇时,不可思议的事情便会爆发。”

前景阴霾

在受到债务危机扩大的拖累下,欧盟委员会(European Commission)把欧元区明年的经济增长预测从六个月前的1.8%下调至0.5%,因为欧元区的复苏步伐再次停顿下来,并再次浮现新一轮经济衰退的风险。

多个欧盟成员国也料将面对经济萎缩的情况,而欧洲经济停滞不前的问题可能会延伸至2012年,因为欧洲各国政府面对庞大的债务,银行则因缺乏信心和必须符合资本充足率要求而缩减放贷活动。欧盟的经济和货币事务专员雷恩(Olli Rehn)表示,不大乐观的预测其实是敲响了最后的警报。

既然如此,如果欧盟选择要求不济的成员国退出欧盟,那将会带来什么好处呢?让我们来看看欧猪五国(PIIGS)中一个在最近频频上头条的国家。

希腊经济去年萎缩4.5%后,让其连续第三年处于经济衰退中。希腊在过去十年里的平均GDP增长为每年2.2%,并在2010年12月录得负7.4%的新低。希腊的旅游业占其GDP的五分之一,无疑是最重要的领域之一。但其旅游业却大幅滑落,尤其是在2008和09年的大衰退和社会出现动荡期间。但在德国旅客激增下,希腊的旅游业有所起色,其2011年8月的相关收入年比提高6.5%至24亿欧元。旅游业的表现将对负债累累的希腊经济带来重大影响。如果希腊退出欧盟,其旅游业将因其货币德拉克马贬值而获得一剂有力的强心针,但前提是社会没有出现动荡或退出欧盟并没有带来负面外溢效应。

虽然要求不济的成员国退出欧盟,以防止其他成员国进一步受拖累的方法令人蠢蠢欲动,但此举还是可能会令市场更为混乱。默克尔的发言人在柏林坚决表示,法国和德国并没有计划另组一个更强壮的欧元区。欧盟委员会主席巴罗佐(José Manuel Barroso)的首席发言人也表示,欧元区成员国达成更一致的货币政策是刻不容缓的,但达成共识的过程将会是“开明的,而不是独裁或分化式的”。

欧盟曾是一个理想中的“梦幻组织”,它的成立是为鼓励欧洲各国互相扶持,并采用统一货币来拉近成员国之间及与其他地区之间的贸易关系,从而造就一个更强盛及更团结的欧洲。这个“梦幻组织”勉强地把成员国强弱不一的货币统一成单一货币,因而歪曲了成员国的经济状况,并令到各国决策人在订立政策时受到限制,最终导致今天“长期卧病”的局面。

除非欧盟成员国的决策人能进一步达成共识,以提高局势发展的能见度,要不然,全世界将继续为这出“大戏”接下来的“剧情”而感到忧虑。




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 新加坡股市资讯
Publish date:18/11/11

新加坡:在怒海中前航的小船

新加坡:在怒海中前航的小船
文: 李金婷 , 朱皓翔 (译:麦美莹) 2011年11月18日 展望
在欧洲债务危机升温及美国经济复苏没有起色的情况下,“亚洲脱钩”的理论再次甚嚣尘上。但亚洲经济体已纷纷把它们的增长预测调低,似乎亚洲脱钩在环球化的社会中只是一种说法,尤其是对以出口为主的国家而言。

贸工部把今年的国内增长预测调低至5%一点也不意外。新加坡金融管理局在面对环球复苏提不起劲的情况下,除了在10月初稍微放宽其货币政策外,也警告明年经济将会进一步放缓。


出口可能转弱
小红点是世界第二个最繁忙的货柜港口,它的经济很容易受到国际贸易流量的打击,相信在未来的日子中,它必须鼓起勇气来面对满途荆棘。欧洲是新加坡最大的出口目的地之一,随着它被紧缩措施所围困,并且需要避开另一轮的经济衰退,因此欧洲大陆极有可能在长时间上对外国商品及服务的需求减弱。

当2009年发生环球金融危机时,新加坡的经济萎缩了0.8%,主要是受到出口下跌18%所拖累。如果目前的欧洲债务危机迟迟未能解决,它将会触发更大的回响,因为它所涉及的规模比雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)还大很多。考虑到批发贸易是去年新加坡GDP(国内生产总值)的第二大贡献者,欧洲危机可能会导致新加坡的重要增长引擎受损。

从企业层面来看,对在欧洲拥有大量业务的公司可能不大有利。话虽如此,情况并不至于那么严重,因为这些公司以至欧洲企业可以把焦点转向新兴市场聚集的亚洲,或是把它们在亚洲的现有业务扩张来弥补欧洲的不足。


旅游业日益兴旺
新加坡的旅游业不但没有受到西方的不景气所影响,而且成为了世界经济论坛(World Economic Fourm)所汇编的观光旅游竞争力指数的区域龙头。事实上,新加坡的GDP在过去几年,从流入观光旅游业的资源中,取得超过5%的增长。新加坡旅游局的最新统计数字显示,在2011年首9个月里,抵境旅客达到984万名(年比上升14.8%。)

圣淘沙名胜世界(Resorts World Sentosa)及滨海湾金沙(Marina Bay Sands)这两个综合度假胜地的景点预期将会在今年内全面开放,预期这将持续为狮城带来繁荣活力,而赌场收入估计将会达到55亿美元,为GDP增长带来1.7%贡献。

今年抵境的旅客料将达到1,300万名,超越去年创下的1,164万名记录,而预计明年的数字将会有所增长。占2010年新加坡GDP大约7%的旅游收益预期会创下220-240亿元的历史新高(年比上升17-27.7%)。后者的能见度极高,因为新加坡旅游业的增长主要是依赖亚洲旅客的推动,而在过去几年亚洲旅客占了总旅客量接近50%。因此,这进一步证明了在未来几个季度,如果欧洲及美国的抵境游客会带来任何直接负面冲击,对新加坡的影响将会微乎其微。吞噬

最可能从抵境旅客不断增多中受益的行业应该是本地的酒店业。值得一提的是,在一级方程式大赛举行期间,廉价酒店像位于明古连街(Bencoolen)及武吉士街的酒店81(Hotel 81),居然可以把房间的租金翻倍至每晚350元。踏入年尾的假日高峰季节,我们相信拥有稳健出租率(在2011年达到93%)的新加坡酒店业应该可以从这股增长势头中,进一步受惠。



城市酒店信托表现稳定
投资者如果想从新加坡蓬勃的款待业中受惠,聚焦于本地酒店业的城市酒店信托(CDL Hospitality Trust)应该是不错的选择。由于CDL大部分的组合是在新加坡,因此我们可以放心的说,它受到西方国家动荡的影响比较少。

较早前,CDL报3Q11总收入跳升15.2%至3,640万元,归功于组合内的款待领域表现均向好,以至Studio M酒店的贡献增加。该季度的净产业收入也因而跳升12.7%至3,400万元。

CDL的组合表现保持乐观,平均的出租率为89.5%,而每天平均租金及每客房收入分别提高至236元(年比增8.7%)及211元(年比增6.2%)。这也是公司自2Q08(金融危机发生前)的每客房收入取得222元高位以来,攀上的最高峰。

展望未来,随着圣淘沙名胜世界的海事博物馆及水族馆(Maritime Experiential Museum and Aquarium)于2011年10月15日开始营运,我们预期到访游客将会进一步增加。再加上酒店业务通常会在下半年比较兴旺,因此,我们相信CDL将可以从对住宿需求的增长中,业务更上一层楼。



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 新加坡股市资讯
Publish date:18/11/11

印尼的经济增长受庞大消费人口支撑

印尼的经济增长受庞大消费人口支撑
文: 钟旭光 , 张玉明 (译:麦美莹) 2011年11月18日 展望
国际大型运动会的开幕典礼通常给予主办国一个很好的机会,向全世界展示其最美好的一面。第26届东南亚运动会在巨港惹卡巴林体育场揭幕 – 灿烂夺目的烟火、迷人的灯光表现、以至令人陶醉的传统舞蹈及歌曲 – 让东道主印尼展现了其好客之道。如果为这个两年一度的运动会所筹备的精彩画面不是受到当地报章的负面报道蒙上一层阴影,这将会是完美无暇的一幕。

对投资者而言,上述的精彩表现与印尼目前如日中天的经济可以说是划上等号。随着发达经济体卷入了各自难以脱身的困境中,许多人把希望放在新兴经济体,期盼后者能填补前者留下的空缺及推动环球经济增长。印尼是全球第四人口大国及拥有最多回教徒的国家,它被誉为明日之星,并可以加入金砖四国(巴西、俄罗斯、印度及中国)之列。

进步神速
坦白说,印尼目前的光辉是值得嘉奖的。这个群岛在1997年的亚洲金融风暴中元气大伤,接着泰铢崩溃后,印尼盾从风暴来袭前的2,600印尼盾兑1美元大幅滑落至14,000印尼盾兑1美元,从而导致1998年的GDP(国内生产总值)萎缩了13.1%及通胀率飙高至58.4%。之后,印尼的GDP以每年平均超过5%的幅度扩张。它在今年预计可以取得6.5%的增长,通胀率徘徊在5%左右。

虽然有些人认为印尼经济急转弯是受到商品热潮的支持,后者受惠于中国和印度对商品的强大需求,但国内的政治改革也应记一功。在1997年金融危机爆发不久后,总统苏哈托终于愿意把紧握了30年的权力放松,并在宪法下建立了一人一票的总统选举制度。目前的总统尤多约诺主张改革求新,并在2009年大选中以大多数票连任。他把肃贪倡廉为其首要任务之一。

更重要的是,印尼的消费力是吸引投资者的亮点。拥有2亿3,000万庞大人口的印尼,内需占了其GDP约60%。由于有接近27%的人口是在15岁以下,消费市场的潜在购买力十分强大,因为在未来10年里,劳工人口将会大幅提高。印尼希望从这个称为‘人口红利(demographic dividend)’的潜力中得益,让它比处于老龄化人口的经济体如中国占优。

实现人口红利
从2005年至2011年的失业数字来看,印尼似乎沿着正确的方向前进,因为整体失业率从11.2%下跌至7.1%。但在细看下,大学毕业生的失业数字有点令人担忧,因为它与整体失业率背道而驰,从2005年的3.6%升高至2010年的8.5%。世界银行公布的预估数字同样令人担忧,因为它指出印尼有超过一半人口的每天生活费少于2美元。从这些数据来看,我们得出一个结论,就是要实现人口红利,印尼必须创造更多就业机会,尤其是工作性质较优、薪金较高的职位。

要实现这个理想,印尼需要打造一个能吸引更多外国直接投资的环境。基础建设应该是首要任务,因为印尼的港口、电网及道路是区域中最超出负荷的。其高昂的交通费是令外国投资者却步的主要因素之一。此外,政府的政策必须与其大力欢迎外国资金进驻的友善态度相符。值得一提的是,政府最近宣布检讨及修订其与外国公司的合约,这对其在国际业务社群中本来已声名不大好的情况来看,一点好处也没有。

政治及政策风险很可能是印尼经济进展的最大一个未知数。下一届总统大选将在2014年进行,鉴于手法平稳的现任总统尤多约诺在宪法上不能寻求第三度连任,市场正密切注意谁会成为潜在的接班人。印尼有很大机会实现其理想,成为下一个崛起的国度。

印尼经济急转弯除了是受惠于庞大人口的优势外,也是因为受到商品热潮的支撑,因为中国和印度对商品的需求十分殷切。现在,就让我们来细看印尼棕油业的发展。




棕榈油是印尼最重要的农业
农业是印尼的最大经济支柱之一,占了该国2010年GDP的15.3%及提供了38.3%的就业机会。油棕是印尼最活跃的出口商品,以种植面积而言,它高居首位,覆盖约500万公顷。印尼政府对推动棕油业的努力十分明显。从1995年至2010年,棕油种植园的面积足足增加了407%,而分别为第二及第三大农作物的橡胶及甘蔗(以产量计算)的种植面积则保持不变或减少。截至2010年,甘蔗及橡胶种植园的面积分别为42万9,400公顷及47万2,200公顷。

值得一提的是,印尼的棕榈油产量是全球之冠,在2010年达到2,130万公吨。美国农业部估计,印尼在2011/2012年的棕榈油产量将达到2,540万公吨(营销期从2011年10月起计算),占第二位是马来西亚,产量达1,840万公吨。

企业乐见原棕油价格攀高
原棕油的价格上涨带动了业内商家的盈利,尤其是金光农业资源(Golden Agri-Resources),它是印尼最大的种植园商家。公司在3Q11获得16亿美元盈利,年比增长61.9%,而盈利则为1亿零960万美元,年比增长10.5%。公司的总种植面积依然是印尼最大,截至2011年9月30日为44万8,924公顷。

与此同时,农业巨子丰益国际(Wilmar International)最近宣布了其3Q11业绩,收入年比大幅上升68.7%,而盈利则增长23.7%,由于所有业务部门的销售提高。
由于其超过50%的收入是来自中国,丰益国际的表现面对来自中国保护措施的不利影响,包括价格顶限及对食用油征收的入口税。

虽然丰益国际多年来积极向多种商品扩张,但棕油依然是公司的主要收入来源。截至2011年9月30日,公司74%的棕油种植园是在印尼,面积达18万3,708公顷,余下的种植园是在马来西亚及非洲。

减税令竞争加剧
在其业绩报告中,丰益国际指出,原棕油的出口税在3Q11平均每月为16.9%,去年同期(3Q10)平均每月只是4.5%。先前,公司的毛利被侵蚀,部分原因是由于印尼的棕油出口税提高。印尼的棕油出口税政策随着国际原棕油价格波动,以保护其国内食用油供应维持在稳定的价格。为了刺激棕油业,印尼政府介入,把加工原棕油的出口税下调。彭博社指出,印尼把原棕油的出口税从10月份的16.5%减低至11月的15%。

丰益国际的主席兼总裁郭孔丰说:“棕榈和月桂酸将可受惠于印尼政府近期对棕榈产品出口税架构的调整,这对下游加工毛利显著有利。”

减低出口税无疑令印尼的棕油业受益。但另一方面,这令邻国大为不满,因为印尼减低原棕油出口税将让其商品在价格上占优。马来西亚种植及原产业部部长丹斯里柏纳东博(Tan Sri Bernard Dompok)说;“市场形势出现变化。我计划择日与印尼的同级部长就此事进行商谈。”

印尼的棕油业迅速发展其实付出了不少代价,因为森林面积被大幅砍伐。然而,棕油将依然是印尼出口商品的最大贡献者之一。它在食品业的用途增多,以至原棕油价格强劲,将为其增长带来支持。虽然来自马来西亚的直接竞争使印尼的棕油业增长受限,但其他国家像泰国及南非正在增加种植油棕,一点也不让人惊讶,因为它们也希望从蓬勃的市场中分一杯羹。




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 新加坡股市资讯
Publish date:18/11/11

"Can Cash Be Faked?"

Written by Benjamin Koh (Investment Manager, Lighthouse Advisors)
Friday, 25 November 2011 07:05


"Can Cash Be Faked?"

The following article first appeared as part of a longer article in the 30 September 2011 investment newsletter of Lighthouse Advisors. It has been updated and edited for a wider audience. Those who wish to investigate the companies discussed should refer to the individual companies’ announcements for relevant information.


IN THEORY, cash is the simplest asset of all and the hardest to fake. After all, one can just check the bank account. But company directors do not always do so. It is common practice to assume that the accounts, as presented, are “true and fair” unless proven otherwise.
Some examples of disappearing cash may help drive home the point.

China Gaoxian Fibre Fabric was listed on the SGX in September 2009, raising $78.2m. In January 2011, it had a second listing in Korea, this time raising $223.8m. Two months later, its auditors Ernst & Young reported that it “could not verify nor confirm the bank balances in the Company’s subsidiaries”. Trading in the shares was halted, and the auditors were tasked with an expanded scope of audit. In the meantime, the company has made a full provision of the missing cash, and its 2010 annual report shows an “extraordinary loss” of RMB 980m.

What does China Gaoxian do, anyway? Its IPO prospectus says they are “principally engaged in the production and sale of premium differentiated fine polyester yarn and warp knit fabric.” Among their products are fully-drawn yarn (FDY), drawn textured yarn (DTY), blended polyester yarn, triangular fibre yarn and warp knit fabric.

Hongwei Technologies listed on SGX in October 2005, raising $8.6m. In May 2007 it issued new shares for $10.9m, and in September 2010 it did another placement, for $4.2m. On 26 February 2011, its auditor Ernst & Young reported “issues pertaining to the cash and bank balances confirmation in its subsidiary company in China”.

KPMG was tasked to do a special audit, and its audit report released on 21 October 2011 reported that over 99% of the purported cash on the balance sheet was simply gone. The evidence KPMG uncovered strongly suggested the company had forged bank statements and tax invoices, and had made unauthorized loans to suppliers, one of which was majority-owned by the father of one of the executive directors.

What does Hongwei do? The IPO prospectus says they “manufacture and sell polyester differential fibre”. The principal products are: polyester differential pre-oriented yarn (POY), and drawn and textured yarn (DTY). This sounds a lot like China Gaoxian.

Were there hints that China Gaoxian and Hongwei’s cash might not be there? Yes. The biggest hints came from the income statements. Not just those of China Gaoxian and Hongwei, but also those of other synthetic fibre producers, specifically, China Sky Chemical Fibre and Li Heng Chemical Fibre.

China Sky and Li Heng are nylon manufacturers. Nylon, like polyester, is a synthetic fibre made from hydrocarbons, usually crude oil. Nylon and polyester are chemically different, but have similar properties and end up in similar products, namely textiles. Apparel companies typically use both nylon and polyester for use in various fabrics across their product ranges.

China Sky claims that it manufactures “four types of high-end chemical fibre (nylon) products, namely: Full Drawn Yarn (FDY), High Oriented Yarn (HOY), Air Textured Yarn (ATY) and Drawn Textured Yarn (DTY).” These sound very similar to Hongwei and China Gaoxian, even if they are made from nylon instead of polyester.

Li Heng’s IPO prospectus says they make Partially Oriented Yarn (POY), Highly Oriented Yarn (HOY), Fully Drawn Yarn (FDY) and Drawn Textured Yarn (DTY). It is China Sky’s virtual twin, and is at least a close cousin of China Gaoxian and Hongwei.

Given similar equipment, similar raw materials, similar products and similar customers, both polyester and nylon manufacturing should give similar economic results. Differences should be attributable to economics of scale in raw material purchasing, and the final price point of the product. Nylon is generally regarded as superior to polyester, and commands a higher selling price.

So the basic premise is that all four companies should have broadly similar margins, with advantages for the larger producers and the nylon producers. Importantly, changes in supply and demand in the textile market should affect all four companies similarly. Here is where the clues emerge.

In 2009, both China Sky and Li Heng reported steep declines in revenues and gross margins. China Sky’s sales fell 43%. It blamed lower sales and high fixed costs for the gross margin declining from 30.9% to just 4.7%. Average selling prices (ASP) dropped 43.2%.

Li Heng’s story was similar: sales dropped 46%, and gross margin went from 28.7% to 12.6%. It blamed the slowdown in the global economy for pricing pressure. ASP fell 37.3%.
What about China Gaoxian and Hongwei?
China Gaoxian’s sales fell just 1%. It reported higher gross margins in 2009, at 31.8% versus 30.4% in 2008. It also had higher net margins; 22.6% against 21.3% the year before. ASP fell only about 10%.
Hongwei’s sales fell 18%. Gross margins went from 30.4% to 25.5%. ASP fell about 18%.
From the viewpoint of apparel companies, nylon and polyester are interchangeable; retail customers don’t care. While the two materials are chemically different, their properties are similar enough that clothing can be designed to use one or the other, or both. If the price differential is large, it is not difficult to change the mix to use more of the cheaper material.
It is therefore amazing that the nylon companies suffered so badly, while the polyester makers were only slightly affected. Logically, all four companies should have suffered together. Apparel companies would have surely taken advantage of the 40% decline in nylon prices to use more nylon, or to force polyester makers to cut prices severely too.

With this as background, the simplest answer to the conundrum of China Gaoxian and Hongwei is that their 2009 income statements were fake. Fake sales generate fake profits, which show up as fake cash on the balance sheet. So of course the auditors could not find the cash, since it was never there to begin with. This could have been deduced in early 2010, when the 2009 results were announced, so investors could have sold out one year before the auditors announced the issues.

One important caveat on detecting and avoiding frauds: a smart thief is unlikely to be caught. History records several famous unsolved thefts. Fortunately for investors, most thieves are not so smart. They usually leave clues, like forgers with paintings – many forgers are good, but they still make small mistakes. The few forgers who are true experts are seldom (or never) caught. Even expert investors who remain skeptical cannot hope to avoid all the frauds. But a little homework goes a long way.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts:
Publish date:

Genting Malaysia: GenUK Shows Improvement in 3QFY11(HLG)

Genting Malaysia (HOLD , EPS )
Price Target: RM4.07 (↔)
Share Price: RM3.86

GenUK Shows Improvement in 3QFY11
Results
 In line – Reported 3QFY11 net profit of RM347.1m came in within expectation, accounting for 73.8% of HLIB’s estimate and 72.3% of consensus full year estimates.

Deviations
 4Q seasonally stronger due to school holiday.

Highlights
 The Group recorded an increase of 10.7% and 3.2% in net profit QoQ and YoY respectively.

 RWG experienced overall higher volume of business and hold percentage in its casino operations. In the hotel side, its occupancy rate increased to 95% from 93% last quarter due to lesser available rooms.

 GenUK showed an improvement in its performance in the quarter, recording EBITDA profit of RM30.7m compared to EBITDA loss of RM7.7m in 2QFY11. This is mainly contributed by the London casinos with better win percentage and higher overall volume.

 In the current quarter, the group recorded a construction revenue of RM566.9m, generated from progressive development of video lottery facility at RWNY.

 Management opined that the excellent performance of RWNY for the first few weeks after its opening could be due to novelty effect. However, performance might ramp up after the full opening of 4,525 of VLTs and 475 ETGs by end-2011.  GenM announced that Genting Casinos UK Ltd had entered in a S&P agreement to acquire Fox Poker Club Ltd for RM38.5m. No detailed information was given on this purchase as management says it is still in an early stage.

Risks
 1) Regulatory risk; 2) Weaker hold percentage; 3) Pandemic breakouts; 4) Cannibalization from Macau & Singapore; 5) Appreciation of RM and 6) Destination resort legislation not approved by Florida Legislature.

Forecasts
 Forecasts unchanged pending more data points from RWNY.

Rating
HOLD ,
TP: RM4.07 
 Positives – (1) Defensive stock; (2) Monopoly in the industry; and (3) New source of earnings from international markets to drive earnings growth
 Negatives – (1) Highly regulated industry; and (2) earnings highly dependable on luck factor and hold percentage

Valuation
 Maintain target price of RM4.07 based on SOP valuation. Given its recent surge in share price and potential upside of less than 10%, downgrade to HOLD.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: HLIB Research
Publish date: 25/11/11

Sunway: A much improved quarter (HLG)

Sunway (BUY , EPS )
Price Target: RM3.12
Share price: RM2.22

A much improved quarter
Results
 Sunway’s 3Q core earnings of RM94m grew by 22% from the previous quarter, bringing its 9M11 core earnings to RM226m or 17.5 sen/share (QoQ: +22%), making up 75% and 73% of ours and street’s estimates respectively.

Deviations
 In line.

Dividends
 None.

Highlights
 Results review… The strong 3Q performance was due to improved earnings margin whereby core PBT margins exassociates/ JCE expanded from 5.1% in the previous quarter to 6.3%. Earnings were also lifted by strong contribution from the Singapore and Australia property developments (contribution at the associate/JCE level).

 EI… During the quarter, EI charges were -RM11.9m derivative losses and an additional -RM12.9m listing expenses compared to an EI gain of +RM35.5m (mainly revaluation gain for SunREIT) in the previous quarter.

 New property sales remain strong… Achieved new property sales of RM454m during the quarter compared to RM481m in 2Q and RM403m in 1Q, bringing YTD new property sales to RM1,3bn. Majority of new sales were from Singapore, Velocity, Vivaldi and South Quay. Management has yet to set their property sales target for next year. Of note, the expected GDV for the recently acquired Pasir Ris land will be S$355m (Sunway has a 30% stake).

 Mixed effect from seasonality factors… The Raya festive season and summer holidays lifted performance in the hospitality segment. On the other hand, this affected the construction division which saw a sharp slowdown in construction activities based in the Middle East.

 Earnings visibility… Overall, Sunway’s outstanding construction order book stands at ~RM2.5bn (see Figure #3), translating to ~2.4x FY10’s revenue, while its property unbilled sales of ~RM1.6bn (see Figure #2) translates to 2.9x FY10’s property revenue.

Risks
 Execution risk;
 Regulatory and political risk (both domestic and overseas);
 Rising raw material prices; and
 Unexpected downturn in the construction and property cycle.

Forecasts
 Unchanged.

Rating
 We like Sunway for its integrated construction/property business model and maintain our BUY call as Sunway poses deep values and is still trading at a discount to its peers. The Group has yet to reap its full synergistic benefits following the merger exercise.

Valuation
 TP of RM3.12 based on SOP valuation maintained (see Figure #4).




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: HLIB Research
Publish date: 25/11/11

MISC: Pulling out the thorn (CIMB)

MISC Bhd
Current RM6.13
Target RM5.48
Pulling out the thorn
While the decision to exit the container business will be good in the long term, MISC will for now be burdened by provisions and continuing losses for the liner, tanker and chemical divisions. This will eat up healthy profits from the LNG, MMHE and offshore divisions.

2QFY11 results missed expectations as 1H core net profit amounted to only 58% of our 9M estimate (change in FYE from Mar to Dec) and 41% of consensus forecasts. This supports our UNDERPERFORM. We cut our FY11 EPS and target price (based on 1.2x P/BV) but raise FY12-13 EPS.

Time to plug the hole
We concur with MISC’s decision to exit the container business from June next year, which will lift the group’s earnings for 2012 and beyond. Despite suffering RM2.9bn in cumulative losses from this division for the past 15 quarters, it is still not too late as the operating environment could worsen in the next two years and MISC is unwilling to make the investments needed to stay competitive. MISC will take a one-time hit of US$400m in 2011 (which is why our FY11 forecasts have been cut). However, from June 2012, the liner losses should cease, which explains our upward revision to FY12-13 EPS forecasts. This is, however, partially offset by increases in our tanker and chemical shipping loss estimates.

Not so much a tank
Petroleum tanker losses rose sharply this quarter due to weaker aframax rates. We think that our previous loss forecasts were too conservative.

We now raise our loss forecasts and caution that tanker losses could stay elevated in our forecast period as 10 of 12 VLCCs currently on profitable time-charter are up for renewal in the next 1½ years. At current low market rates, the remaining two VLCCs are already suffering losses. Higher bunker costs also kept chemical shipping in the red.

Delays to Gumusut
The delay in the commissioning of the Gumusut semi-submersible is a lost opportunity for MISC to account for some RM100m in earnings p.a. from mid-2012. Gumusut is likely to be operational only from mid-2013 due to complex technical issues.




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CIMB-Research,
Publish date: 25/11/11
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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