Saturday, November 5, 2011

20111104夢想街57號 胡立陽老師百寶箱



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date: 04/11/11

Opportunity to sell

Weekend Comment Nov 4: Opportunity to sell

BUOYED BY THE European Central Bank’s unexpected 25 basis point interest rate cut to 1.25% on Nov 3, the Straits Times Index -- led by jumps in Jardine Matheson, Jardine Strategic, Overseas China Bank Corp and DBS Holdings -- opened on a high note on Nov 4, rising 1.9% to 2,863 points from the day before.

The ECB lowered rates partly because “what we’re observing now is slow growth heading toward a mild recession by the end of this year,” President Mario Draghi said during his first press conference in Frankfurt. However, the new president made no mention of plans to rescue the region’s weakest nations and warned that growth forecasts for the Eurozone in 2012 were likely to be cut owing to sluggish demand.

In that light, the current rally in the local bourse could be a precious opportunity to sell and take profit ahead of further volatility. In a Nov 2 note to its investors, Morgan Stanley warns that equities on the MSCI Singapore Index face earnings risks and increasing volatility owing to the city state’s high external capital and trade linkages to the West. The brokerage expects a 10.6% slide in earnings by 2013.

Already, consensus 2012 growth forecasts for the city state has declined from 5.8% to 5.1% during the last three months. Morgan Stanley expects that Singapore should record growth ranging from 1.5%-3.8% for 2012. “We expect Singapore’s GDP CAGR to slow down from 8.7% and 7.2% during 1990-1997 and 2002-07, respectively, to 5.2% during 2011-17. We also expect MSCI Singapore’s earnings growth to slow from 15.9% during 2001-10 to 3.9% during from 2010-13,” it cautioned investors.

The brokerage is urging its clients to sell into the recent bounce, and recommends investors buy “on dips” into other markets, particularly Indonesia, and continue selling Singapore equities in rallies. Since hitting a low of 291 points on Oct 4, the MSCI Singapore has bounced 11.6% but Morgan Stanley believes that the Singapore market will continue to underperform in the months to come, and is recommending a list of local stocks that look ripe for sale.

Among Morgan Stanley’s top sell ideas are the three commodity supply chain managers -- Olam International, Noble Group and Wilmar International -- which it believes are overvalued. Since the companies hit 52-week lows on Oct 4, Noble -- which recently made public its intentions of separately listing its soft commodities arm on the SGX -- has rebounded the most, rising 30% to $1.56 on Nov 4. Meanwhile, Olam and Wilmar have rallied by 17% and 23%, respectively. All three are due to report 3Q2011 results within the next 2 weeks.

It could also be time to sell Keppel Corporation. The rig builder recently announced earnings amounting to $1.25 billion, up 12% yoy, on the back of a 4% yoy rise in revenues to $7.2 billion for the nine months to Sept 30, 2011. It has secured some $8.7 billion worth of new orders to date, although some analysts expect that new orders are beginning to slow as capacity at Keppel’s yards fill up.

Meanwhile, investors should also sell ST Engineering and Genting Singapore PLC, which have rallied recently, but that Morgan Stanley believes to be over-popular despite weaker earnings recently. Also on Morgan Stanley’s sell list are property developers City Developments, UOL Group and Fraser & Neave, palm oil plantation owner Golden Agri-Resources and Jardine Cycle & Carriage.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.theedgesingapore.com
Publish date:04/11/11

High volatility and the market's new 'R' word

Business Times - 05 Nov 2011

STOCKS
High volatility and the market's new 'R' word

By R SIVANITHY
SENIOR CORRESPONDENT

A FEW years ago it used to be that the 'R' word stood for 'recession', a no-no as far as financial markets were concerned.

This week saw that old 'R' word replaced with a new one - 'referendum' or to be more precise, the on-off referendum in Greece. Like its predecessor though, it also is a 'no-no' as far as markets are concerned.

The week kicked off on a sour note as doubts over the lasting impact of the previous week's European bailout plan surfaced. The resultant selling then picked up pace when Greece's Prime Minister George Papandreou shocked everyone by calling for a national vote on the bailout package. His logic was that since the package calls for severe austerity measures, it was the only democratic thing to do.

Financial markets, however, clearly decided that they prefer bailouts to democracy and concluded that a referendum might throw a spanner in the works. Panic selling ensued.

After intense pressure from the 'Merkozy' coalition, comprising German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Mr Papandreou changed tack and cancelled the referendum. This lifted spirits, as did an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank. Panic buying ensued.

The outcome as far as the local market was concerned was a seesaw week. Yesterday's 38.2-point bounce for the Straits Times Index (STI), however, couldn't help it avoid a 57-point or 2 per cent loss for the week at 2,848.24.

The three local banks and Singapore Airlines were among the top blue chips to release results this week. It was a mixed bag - DBS surprised on the upside, UOB and SIA on the downside while OCBC's figures were probably within expectations.

Over the course of the five days DBS ended 14 cents down at $12.66, UOB lost $1.06 at $16.43, OCBC fell seven cents to $8.53 and SIA dropped 51 cents to $11.28.

In its bank wrap yesterday, Credit Suisse said the Q3 figures illustrate that the FY12 outlook has dimmed. 'Loan growth can only slow from the current levels, banks appear to be happy to see margins just move sideways near term (even from the current historical lows) and credit costs can only go up from here,' said Credit Suisse.

In its report on SIA yesterday, DMG & Partners said it is maintaining its 'buy' with a fair value of $12.23, premised on 1.1 price/book value (P/BV).

'The stock, currently trading at 1x P/BV, has hit bottom. However, our BUY call, made in August, has yet to prove correct although SIA has outperformed the benchmark STI,' said DMG.

When markets are hugely volatile as they were this week and the outlook very uncertain, traders usually turn to structured warrants. These short-term, leveraged instruments offer large bang for the buck and so it was that Macquarie-issued warrants on the Hang Seng Index consistently topped the volume, percentage gainers and percentage losers' lists throughout the week.

Passing relatively unnoticed and without much fanfare this week was Morgan Stanley's Nov 2 Asean Equity Strategy report, in which it described the local market as 'volatile and vulnerable', the 'vulnerable' part a reference to earnings downgrades and a potential structural de-rating.

'High external capital and trade linkages increase the vulnerability and volatility of the Singapore market,' said Morgan Stanley. 'We expect 10.6 per cent downside risk to MSCI Singapore 2013 estimated earnings per share and potential deleveraging by EU banks could affect Singapore the most within the Asean as EU banks claims account for 83 per cent of Singapore's GDP'.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:05/11/11

Business environment worse than post-Lehman, says SIA

Business Times - 05 Nov 2011


Business environment worse than post-Lehman, says SIA

Situation now more protracted and serious, with no sight of finality

By VEN SREENIVASAN

THE debt crisis in Europe and the economic slowdown in the US have made the operating environment for Singapore Airlines more unpredictable and difficult than the post-Lehman crisis in late 2008, said Singapore Airlines CEO Goh Choon Phong when asked about the outlook at a post-results briefing yesterday.

'The demand outlook after late 2008 was precipitated by a US financial crisis. That crisis also brought down operating costs, and fuel price tumbled to around US$50 pbl. But the pain was shortlived. Now, now even as demand softens, we are not seeing the same kind of cost reductions. And we are facing a situation that could be more protracted and with serious economic consequences, but with no sight of finality. So we are looking a situation which could potentially drag on much longer.'

On Thursday, the airline reported a 49 per cent second quarter profit drop to $194 million as yields continued to slip and fuel cost remained stubbornly high.

Net profit for the April-September 2011 first-half period dived 62 per cent to $239 million.

But the company managed to cushion itself from the full impact of a 45 per cent rise in fuel price by its astute hedging policy. The strong Singapore dollar helped as well.

Expenditure on fuel rose 35 per cent or some $747 million for the first half.

Mr Goh said that the company would continue to hedge between 20 and 60 per cent of its fuel requirements for the year, and has hedged 32 per cent of its second-half fuel requirements at US$124 per barrel.

But faced with steadily declining yield (11.7 cents/pkm in Q2 versus 11.8 cents/pkm in Q1) and stubbornly high costs, the airline's breakeven load rose to 78.6 per cent for the second quarter and 78 per cent for the first half. Actual load factor came to 79.3 per cent for the July-September quarter, and 77.5 per cent for the first six months.

'We have a razor thin margin,' said senior vice-president for finance Chan Hon Chew in his presentation.

The company was also asked if its already deteriorating demand outlook could be further damaged by cannibalisation from SIA's soon-to-be-launch low-cost long-haul carrier, Scoot.

'The two (SIA and Scoot) have completely different business models and are targeted at different market segments,' Mr Goh said. 'Scoot will complement SIA's overall strategy.'

He added that despite the challenges on the coach class segment, SIA's premium segment was doing well. 'Business demand is stronger than coach. And we are doing everything to retain this segment of the market, ranging from strategic alliances with partners like Virgin Australia to more aggressive marketing to corporate clients.'

It has often been reported that the premium seats account for around 40 per cent of the income of premium carriers such as SIA, though the airline itself does not give a specific breakdown.

Asked if SIA could end up posting quarterly losses - as it did for the April-September 2009 period - if the current slowdown dragged on, Mr Goh said: 'We are doing everything possible to avoid this.'

SIA posted a loss of $307 million for the April-June 2009 quarter, and a loss of $159 million for the July-September 2009 quarter. But a $404 million profit for the October-December third quarter and a $278 million profit for the January-March 2010 final quarter enabled the airline to claw its way back to profitability for the full year ended March 2010, with a net profit of $216 million.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:05/11/11

MAS-AirAsia share swap under probe

Business Times - 05 Nov 2011


MAS-AirAsia share swap under probe

Minister tells Parliament that Bursa and SC are looking into possible insider trading

By S JAYASANKARAN
IN KUALA LUMPUR

A SHARE swap deal between Malaysia Airlines (MAS) and AirAsia three months ago is being investigated by Bursa Malaysia and the Securities Commission for possible insider trading, Deputy Finance Minister Awang Adek Hussin told Parliament yesterday.

Mr Awang said investigations were still ongoing.

'It will take time because it involves so many accounts and a huge value,' he told lawmakers. 'So we need to separate those that are genuine and those with inside information.'

Since the deal was announced on Aug 9, it has attracted all sorts of criticism - from both right-wing elements in the dominant United Malays National Organisation and MAS's powerful unions.

Among other things, they accuse AirAsia's maverick owner, Tony Fernandes, of taking advantage of the loss-making national airline to fuel his personal ambitions, the latest being the acquisition of English Premier League club Queens Park Rangers, and MAS's subsequent sponsorship of the football club. AirAsia had already agreed to be a sponsor.

MAS's deteriorating finances had pushed the government to prod the two airlines into the share swap. The global economic uncertainty has hurt MAS, which reported a RM770 million (S$312 million) loss for the first half of the year.

The government then said it had no other option. 'We had no choice,' Mr Awang had then explained. 'If it (MAS) continues to make losses and the government has to inject funds, then there will be even more anger.'

The deal subsequently saw Khazanah Nasional swap a 20.5 per cent stake in MAS for 10 per cent of Tune Air, which is the majority shareholder in both AirAsia and AirAsia X, the budget carrier's long-haul airline.

Tune Air, a private firm, is owned by Mr Fernandes and his business partner Kamaruddin Meeranun while Khazanah is MAS's single largest shareholder. Both Mr Fernandes and Mr Kamaruddin have been appointed to MAS's board.

The insider trading allegations came about after media reports showing the rise in the share price of AirAsia in the period leading up to the deal.

The budget airline's shares had traded for as low as RM3.14 on June 23 and were finally traded at RM3.92 before being suspended on Aug 8.

Meanwhile, MAS was suspended when its share price was RM1.60 but rocketed to RM1.90 following the deal.

Answering questions in parliament, Mr Awang said that there was no need for either company to file any announcement with Bursa if there was no material development prior to the deal as the matter was considered private and confidential.

Despite the deal, things haven't looked up for MAS. In August, it announced a net loss of RM527 million for the second quarter of 2011 due to higher fuel costs despite recording a better yield and 9 per cent growth in passenger revenue from the same period last year.

To compound matters, the airline has said that its outlook for the second half of the year remained bleak.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:05/11/11

危機再現?

危機再現?
Created 11/05/2011 - 16:04

雖然希臘總理因壓力而取消引起全球反彈的公投,但事態演變卻給了近期明顯被牛蹤取代全球股市一記當頭棒喝:嘿!還沒渡過危險期呢!

早前人人懼怕的歐債陰影,被價值1兆歐元的救市方案光芒徹底衝散,加上美國近期經濟數據屢屢綻放復甦跡象,全球經濟的兩大主要威脅,似乎一下子蕩然無存,10月份股市走勢也確實顯示人們對經濟衰退的顧慮正慢慢消失。

然而,我寧可相信消失的只是市場的恐懼情緒,也絕不相信危機就此結束;歐債問題不是因希臘公投死灰復燃,而是由始至今,歐債火焰根本未曾完全熄滅過。

若歐債這麼容易被撲滅,執政者根本無須拖延至兩年後的今天才總結出救市策略,雖然有人聲稱歐債危機其實沒那麼嚴重,問題只出在“問題國家”不肯改變態度而已,只要那些國家的領袖願意改變,問題就解決啦!

是沒錯,但若改變可能引起政治危機,就另當別論了,畢竟選舉勝算才是大多數民主國一直以來的優先考量因素,財政赤字是其次。

歐盟對一些成員國所落實的強硬減赤政策,究竟會對經濟造成何種影響,以及受影響的國民會有何反應,到最後,政策又是否會因這些阻力因素而在暗地里流產?

就希臘戲劇性發展看來,這樣的顧慮其實非常符合事件邏輯。

此外,越來越嚴重的全球暖化導致天災四竄,加上森林開發活動有增無減,一如泰國曼谷的慘況隨時出現在其他地區,若其他農產品重鎮再次慘遭踐踏,通膨極有可能再創新高,失去抗衡能力的全球經濟成長可能就此倒地。

雖然我們能說股市目前暫未轉壞,但全球經濟最終能否逃脫衰退糾纏,卻必須耗上一段時日觀察政策和經濟表現才能得出結論。

個人經濟情況可能因中彩票或橫財就手而突然好轉,但要改善全球經濟情況,前路漫漫。



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 星洲日報
Publish date:05/11/11

印尼政府禁止出口 全球锡供应很紧张

印尼政府禁止出口 全球锡供应很紧张
Created 11/05/2011 - 17:05

(吉隆坡5日讯)马熔锡机构(MSC,5916,主板工业产品股)指出,由于印尼禁止出口锡,因此,目前全球锡的供应量“非常紧张”。

透过一项线上分析员与媒体汇报会,该公司集团总执行长莫哈末阿吉阿奴尔说:“印尼的出口禁令,导致供应量受限制,我们预计整体市场的供应继续不足。”

该公司预测,供需之间的差距大约是9000吨,或年度产量的3%。

阿吉指出,该出口禁令让锡的短期底价处于每吨2万1000至2万2000美元,顶价在介于每吨2万4000至2万5000美元。

长期内,他补充,随着新供应量流入(来自生产成本较高的锡矿),锡价将会从上述价位进一步扬升。

他也透露,锡产业者将继续与印尼Bangka Belitung(主要的锡产区)的政府及该国联邦政府接洽,以解决禁止自愿出口的问题。

他称,印尼出口禁令将对制造商造成负面影响,因商家仍然需继续支付生产成本和相关款项给承包商。

另外,国际锡协(ITRI)预计,由于产锡国如印尼、中国和秘鲁,正面对满足当地市场锡需求的困扰,全球市场今年将面对缺乏1万1100吨精炼锡的情况。

今年4月份,锡价攀升至创下每吨3万3600美元的高记录,惟基于市场担心欧洲的债务危机将拖累全球经济走势,锡价在9月份下跌了17%;印尼锡产商之后于10月1日开始禁止出口
锡,好让锡价能够重返每吨2万5000美元价位。

该机构研究经理彼得克德披露,印尼所出口的锡,占全球出口量的超过40%;本月4日,3个月递交的锡以每吨2万2100美元交易。



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 南洋商报
Publish date: 05/11/11

Warren Buffett - How to Identify a Good Investment



If you had to sell short a member of your class, and you had to pay ten percent of their income, you would look for certain shady character traits. Think about the person that you would go long on and the type of person that you would go short on, and then try to become the best person you can if you want to be successful.

Nebraska Furniture Mart will do more than $230 million in sales, which is more than any other single furniture store. It was started by an immigrant who started it from nothing, worked 7 days a week, can't read or write, and she built it to wear it is today. If you can find a great business that is run by someone like that, then you will make a lot of money.

Any good investment idea can be summarized in a single paragraph. You must be able to remain within your circle of competence. It doesn't matter how large the circle is. What matters is that you stay within the circle. You will do much better than someone who understands five times as much as you, but who steps out of his boundaries sometimes. Then you want competent and honest management running the business. Ideally, you want a business that is so great that even an idiot can run it, because eventually one will. These types of businesses are so hard to find that you shouldn't really sell it because it is too hard to replace. It is almost always a mistake to sell a great business just because the price is a bit too high. The price might keep going up and you'll never get a chance to own it again.

Gillette is an example of a great business. Shaving has been around forever. Men are always growing beards, and they don't switch brands very much. The shaving industry isn't going to change a lot in the future. It is a very comfortable feeling to imagine 2 and a half billion males growing beard while you sleep.

In investing, there is no such thing as a called strike. You don't have to swing at every pitch. Just wait for the great opportunity to come around.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date: 23/05/11

Bank of America shares fall after stock swap plan

On Saturday 5 November 2011, 12:38

By Rick Rothacker

REUTERS - Bank of America Corp shares fell 6 percent after the second-biggest U.S. bank revealed plans to issue common stock in exchange for preferred shares.

The decline in the bank's stock on Friday was deeper than the broader market and the 1.5 percent decline in the KBW Bank Index. The shares closed at $6.49, down 51 percent for the year.

Bank of America said in a filing Thursday that the stock swap it was exploring was "economically advantageous" because of the lowered market value of the bank's preferred shares. But issuing up to 400 million common shares would dilute the holdings of other shareholders.

"We believe this is purely a financial engineering tactic to enrich BAC's capital base in an earnings per share neutral transaction," Guggenheim Partners analyst Marty Mosby said in a research report Friday. "However, we also believe investors are in no mood to give any bank management team the benefit of the doubt and will likely sell shares on this news."

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan has repeatedly said the bank does not need to issue common stock to cover mortgage losses or meet new international standards. A bank spokesman said the move should be viewed as a swap that leaves the company with more common stock, which is viewed more favorably by regulators.

The exchange would reduce Bank of America's book value by 2 to 3 percent and increase its Tier 1 common capital ratio by about 20 basis points to about 8.8 percent, CLSA analyst Mike Mayo wrote in a note to clients.

"An increase in common equity is probably a necessary step given unresolved mortgage-related issues, the Fed's unwillingness to grant a dividend increase in (the second half of 2011), and a Tier 1 common ratio that is lower than peer," Mayo wrote. "However, this also reflects poorly on management who were previously adamant that BAC did not need to raise any additional common capital."


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Yahoo Finance
Publish date:05/11/11

歐洲中行減息‧不足以終結危機

歐洲中行減息‧不足以終結危機
Created 11/04/2011 - 19:29

德拉吉公佈的利率政策確實讓市場相當意外,但這並不是能夠改變危機運行軌跡的決定。

這位歐洲中行新任總裁在上任後的首次政策會議上就決定減息,在一定程度上修正了目前來看似乎是歐洲中行在今年早些時候犯下的明顯政策錯誤。這種打破陳規的做法會受到市場的歡迎。但是,歐洲中行在購買成員國國債問題上的立場卻沒有發生改變。而購買成員國國債政策恰恰是真正能夠左右市場的唯一政策。

減息只具象徵意義
對南歐毫無幫助

當然,歐洲中行此次將政策利率下調0.25%,至1.25%,著實讓經濟學家感到意外。他們原本預計德拉吉此次只是會效仿前任特里榭為12月減息鋪路。

德拉吉還警告,歐元區若陷入溫和衰退將壓低通膨。這就表明歐洲中行的政策重心出現變化:就在8月,即使是在經濟持續降溫、主權危機不斷加劇的情況下,歐洲中行依舊對工資水平不斷緩慢上漲感到擔心。不過,此次歐洲中行減息在很大程度上僅具有象徵意義。此舉可能會給德國政府帶來邊際效益,但對已經快速萎縮的南歐經濟體毫無幫助。

“歐洲中行不可能貸款給成員國”

但在談到非常規政策時,德拉吉僅僅簡單重復了歐洲中行的慣常做法,讚揚德國中行的傳統。他重申,各成員國應該靠自身努力而不是依賴外部援助來讓本國經濟恢復秩序。他排除了歐洲中行作為最後貸款人的可能。他重申,歐洲中行實施的成員國國債購買計劃只是暫時的、規模是有限的,目的也僅僅是為了讓貨幣流通體系恢復正常運轉,不過他回避了有關該計劃是否會停止的問題。

買成員國國債
只是暫時舉措

問題在於,這一債券購買計劃的暫時、有限以及其實施的目的直接導致了計劃本身存在缺陷。只要這一點沒有改變,那麼歐洲中行實施的債券購買計劃就只是為持有意大利、西班牙國債的投資者提供了一條退路,而不是提供了介入的理由。時間一長,將有更多的國債從投資者手裡轉向歐洲中行。

法國興業銀行(Societe Generale)本週估計,歐洲中行目前持有6%的西班牙和意大利國債。這有悖於歐洲中行的初衷。拿希臘來說,歐洲中行持有該國國債就阻礙了必要的債務減記的實施。

德拉吉同時還面臨許多挑戰。現在已出現對希臘退出歐元區的公開討論。意大利仍可能隨時爆發危機。這意味下調利率是受歡迎的舉措。但減息本身尚不足以結束危機。從這方面來說,德拉吉或許仍需要採取更多驚人之舉。

即時評論:《華爾街日報》


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: (星洲日報/財經)
Publish date:04/11/11

歐洲大銀行減歐債部位和大裁員

歐洲大銀行減歐債部位和大裁員
Created 11/04/2011 - 19:28

歐債危機加劇,包括巴黎銀行(BNP)與荷蘭國際集團(ING Group)等歐洲兩家大型銀行上季大幅減記歐債部位,其金額共超過130億歐元,此外還將大量裁員以因應市場惡化。

法國最大上市銀行BNP表示,在第三季削減歐債部位約20%,其中對希臘、意大利與西班牙公債部位減記金額超過120億美元。

該行減記希臘公債部位60%約22億6千萬歐元,此外還減記意大利公債部位40%約83億歐元,西班牙公債部位甚至減記81.5%,金額約22億歐元。

BNP:有能力應對希臘倒債

B N P首席執行員普洛特(Baudouin Prot)還向媒體表示,他不排除希臘倒債可能性,儘管該結果“並不樂見”,不過他們將有能力因應。

BNP的資產負債絕大部份來自躉售融資市場(whole sale funding markets)與它所持有的龐大歐債部位。這次歐洲爆發債務危機,也讓該銀行受創慘重。

受到歐債危機殃及,BNP上季淨利銳減71.6%至5.41億歐元,遠低市場預估9億9千190萬歐元,營收也下跌7.6%至100億歐元。

普洛特還透露約在本月15日公佈裁員計劃細節,他說裁減人數約為數百而非數千人。

此外,荷蘭最大金融集團ING也表示在上季減記希臘公債部位40%約4億6千700萬歐元。

ING裁2700人

ING首席執行員霍曼(Jan Hommen)發表聲明指出,受到總經環境減緩,第三季股債市出現惡化,此外歐債危機也有深化趨勢。ING對應危機升高的對策就是“增加避險,並且選擇性降低南歐債券部位”。

ING還補充,有鑒於景氣轉弱,將裁減2千700人,包括2千名內部員工與700名合約員工。

該行也公佈上季財報,表示淨利從上年同期的2億3千900萬歐元增加至16億9千萬歐元,擊敗市場預期的15億2千萬歐元。獲利主要來自房地產投資管理業務與汽車租賃部門。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: (星洲日報/財經)
Publish date:04/11/11

Jim Rogers RBS Conference 22.09.2011, Austria










Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date:22/09/11

S-CHIPS: Warning signs to look out for among 'bargains'

Written by Sim Kih
Tuesday, 23 September 2008 18:25
BARGAIN HUNTING in the sea of red?

Singapore-listed China stocks may under-perform in bear markets, but one must concede China’s GDP growth of close to 10% is still the highest among major economies.

In comparison, Singapore is expecting GDP growth of up to 5% this year, said Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong during his National Day rally speech.

NextInsight short-listed 12 “bargain” S-chips below using the following criteria:

1. Dividend yield greater than 3%
2. Trading at discount to net assets
3. Positive free cash (operating cash > capex)

Close to 10% of S-chips met the above ‘fundamental value’ criteria (See figure 1 below). Of this, more than half were trading at less than 4 times historic PE:


Company Name


Stock Price


Mkt Cap S$mln


Sales
S$mln


Historic
PE


Discount to Book


Dividend
Yield


Asia Environment


$0.205


87.8


96.2


3.9


39%


9.8%


Hongwei Tech


$0.150


33.8


66.1


2.6


40%


9.4%


Sky China Petroleum


$0.115


33.8


40.8


1.8


48%


8.1%


Changtian Plastics


$0.155


102.3


131.5


2.1


30%


7.1%


Asia Power


$0.170


68.9


129.8


5.0


23%


6.5%


Hongguo


$0.205


81.4


153.5


3.6


20%


6.4%


China Precision


$0.240


96.0


159.7


4.3


9%


5.6%


Reyoung Pharm


$0.165


55.0


150.3


4.7


41%


5.5%


Synear Food


$0.290


398.8


460.4


6.3


30%


4.9%


Bio-Treat


$0.150


133.7


291.8


4.8


68%


5.3%


China Sky Chemical


$0.455


370.6


475.1


2.4


35%


4.6%


China Sun Bio-chem


$0.165


133.8


347.2


3.1


57%


4.2%

Bargain S-Chips (source: NextInsight / Bloomberg, as at 22 Sep 2008)

Considering the risky nature of S-chips, what are some potholes to avoid when stock-picking from the “bargain department”?

There are 10 barometers that suggest to seasoned investors there’s more than meets the eye. Many of these include detailed checks on cash, which is harder to manipulate than earnings.

In its recent report, JP Morgan identified the following companies as passing their “warning alerts” screen: COSCO Corp, Yanlord Land, Delong Holdings, People's Food, Chin Fishery, Hsu Fu Chi, China Aviation Oil and EPURE Intl.

Among them, China Fishery, People’s Food and Hsu Fu Chi have the following attributes (using consensus estimates for the non-rated companies):


FY09E P/E < 10x; FY07-09E EPS growth CAGR > 20%;
FY08E dividend yield > 2%;
Net-working-capital-to-sales ratio < 15%. Does your 'bargain gem' fail any of these 10 warning alerts? Readers should note there could be sound reasons behind some of these “warning alerts”, so the discerning investor would investigate further before writing any stock off. 1. Extremely low deposit rate for cash This is a major warning alert. Using China’s annualized cash rates as an example:

















0.72% Demand deposits
1.8% 3-month time deposit
2.5% 12-month time deposit

It is thus reasonable to expect interest on bank deposits for S-chips to exceed 1%.

JP Morgan screen

Deposit rate for cash <1% Total cash/market cap > 5%

2. High cash reserves, but high debt



A high-cash and high-debt scenario indicates poor financial discipline since companies can logically cut finance costs by paying down their debt with excess cash.

Investors begin to wonder there is “balance sheet management” around the book closure date, or in the worst case scenario, a possibility of fraud or embezzlement of cash.



JP Morgan screen

total debt/market cap > 30%
total cash/market cap > 30%

3. Much higher capital expenditure for the same capacity

If a company's fixed asset investment per ton of production capacity increases sharply over its expansion schedule, investors begin to wonder if the increasing depreciation expense that shows up on the profit and loss statement could in fact be excesses in other operating expenses.


Inability to sustain growth

4. High gearing, high working capital requirement

High working capital requirements, low net margin and high gearing will slow growth.

JP Morgan screen

High net working capital to sales ratio (>20%)
High gearing ratio (>35%)
Net working capital to sales ratio – net margin > 15%

5. Frequent fund-raising

JP Morgan screen


Issues of new shares or convertible bond more than twice during 2004-2007.



Changes of key officers

6. Hit-and-run

When a controlling shareholder dilutes its stake to below 50% within a few years of listing, there may be reason for investors to ask questions. Another situation would be a passive investor holding the controlling stake.




7. Resignation of key managers, directors or auditor

Most auditor replacements in Asia are related to unsettled disputes on accounting practices. Investors should be alert if senior managers resign without a proper reason. If the company was doing well, why would they leave instead of enjoying the corporate spoils? Often, the resignations potentially indicate corporate governance issues that investors were unaware of before, said JP Morgan.



Poor corporate governance8. Acquisitions that do not make sense

Investors require acquisitions to show synergy, and a fair acquisition price. This is especially so if the seller is an interested party or an affiliated company. Volume and size of transactions could mask sharp unwarranted jumps in certain accounting items.

9. Lack of sufficient disclosure

This could include failure to disclose large payments related to subsidiaries acquired from a related party, and such payments were subsequently highlighted by independent auditors.


10. High cash reserves, but low dividend payout

JP Morgan screen


net cash/market cap > 10%
rising cash level in the past two fiscal years
dividend payout ratio < 20%




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: nextinsight.net
Publish date: 05/11/11

PhillipCapital Market Watch 04112011 (Weekly Market Commentary)



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube /PhillipCapital
Publish date:04/11/11

Are U.S. Banks in Contagion Danger?



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CNBC
Publish date: 04/11/11

Keep an Eye on European Bond Market



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CNBC
Publish date:05/11/11

A-Shares to Benefit if Beijing Eases Policy



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CNBC
Publish date:04/11/11

德国商业银行第三季亏损9.49亿美元

(法兰克福法新电)德国第二大银行——德国商业银行(Commerzbank)的第三季亏损比原本预期的多,达6亿8700万欧元(约合9亿4900万美元)。这主要是因为它为所持有的希腊政府债务减值7亿9800万欧元。
  德国商业银行是对希腊债务曝险最高的德国银行之一。它昨天也宣布放弃在2012年取得超过40亿美元营运盈利的目标。

  该公司总裁贝新(Martin Blessing)说:“以目前的市场情况来看,我们将不能在明年达到这个目标。”

  去年第三季,德国商业银行的盈利高达1亿1300万欧元。

  德国商业银行说,它重估了手头上持有的希腊债务价值,这导致银行必须为它们减值7亿9800万欧元。除了德国商业银行,其他德国银行和保险公司也已经在今年较早时候作此防范措施。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date: 05/11/11

传可能成为收购对象 美华国际价量齐增

坊间传出美华国际(Mewah International)可能成为收购对象的消息,其股价昨天飚升超过9%,交易量也较之前一天猛增十倍。

  去年11月在新交所挂牌上市的马来西亚第二大棕油提炼公司美华国际,发售价为1.10元。自今年1月创下1.20元的最高价位后,其表现一直有欠理想,跌至目前约42分的低价位。

  昨天其价股一度突然猛涨至47分,闭市报46.5分,全天起9.4%。此外,它也跻身活跃榜三甲之内,交易量达4663万股。

  新交所对此提问,美华国际表示公司并不知道有任何关于其子公司或联营公司的消息传言而导致交易量突增,公司也无法对此状况作出解释。

  10月14日时美华国际的成交量也一度飚升至3567万元,当时新交所也作出相同提问,集团也表示不知情。

  市场传出美华国际可能赶上最近的并购热潮,可能提出收购献议的包括丰益国际(Wilmar International)或马来西亚的IOI集团。美华国际集团首席财务总监拉杰斯(Rajesh Chopra)受询时表示,现阶段无可置评。

  资深股票评论员王金福表示,如果有集团要收购美华国际,他并不感到惊讶,因为美华国际目前的股价被低估。他认为,丰益国际提出收购的成数较高,因为两者的业务较可达到相辅相成的效果。

  华美国际的食用油和脂肪品牌包括“Oki”、“Mona”、“Moi”等。丰益国际子公司益海嘉里旗下则拥有“金龙鱼”、“胡姬花”、“海皇”等10多个品牌,尤其是企业的标志产品“金龙鱼”系列食用油,已经成为中国驰名商标。

  王金福也指出,美华国际属家族企业,管理方面有相当的挑战。因此,如果有公司愿意出好价钱,管理核心有意退休或另谋发展,都有可能接受收购。

华侨银行投资研究的分析师指出,美华国际之前有超卖的现象,投资者可能趁低吸购。这只棕油股的跌幅大于其他同类股,自今年8月起,美华国际的股价下挫42%,丰益国际则只滑落7%。
  大和证券(Daiwa Securities)分析师梅农(Pyari Menon)表示,棕油的基本面从11月预料将有所改善,并将延续到明年上半年,及在第二季达到高峰,但近期可能受黄豆供应的影响。

  气温和土质有利于巴西黄豆的收成,因此预料中国将从巴西大量进口,棕油价格的上涨空间会因此受限。

  因此,梅农更看好油棕种植股,如金光农业和第一资源,并给予中下游的棕油加工股如美华国际和丰益国际“中性”评级。

 美华国际成立于1950年代,占马来西亚14%的炼油市场。其主要业务是采购、生产和行销食用油和脂肪,顾客遍布超过100个国家,包括41个非洲国家和17个中东国家。

  就产量而言,美华国际是世界最大的棕油加工业者。集团希望2012年下半年的炼油能力可提高19%,至一年3万3000公吨。

  它目前在马来西亚拥有三座提炼加工厂和两座包装厂,在新加坡也有一座包装厂。集团较早前曾透露,正在中国和印度尼西亚寻找扩充油棕提炼厂的地段。

  美华国际将于本月11日闭市后公布第三季业绩。



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date: 05/11/11

总裁吴俊鹏:新航下来几个月仍充满挑战

新加坡航空公司(SIA)总裁吴俊鹏说,欧洲的经济问题看来是要拖上一段时日,不像上次全球金融危机那样快速回弹,油价也没有大跌,反而还是居高不下,航油每桶目前仍高达127美元。

  他昨天在业绩汇报会上,不愿对分析员及记者对今后的业绩或油价作出任何预测,但对打击其航空服务需求的欧美经济困境却毫不含糊这样表示。

  吴俊鹏通过麦克风传达警惕讯息,而且认为接下来几个月的情况充满挑战。

  航油是新航最大的一项成本,占上半年新航成本的40.5%。新航因此将继续控制和削减成本,保持灵活性,以便做好应变的准备。

  吴俊鹏也预期新航的运载能力在现财年下半年将保持上半年的水平,新航也将在下半年对冲高达32%所需的燃油。

  至今为止,已有一些航空公司宣布将放缓运载能力的增长,但并没有说要削减运载能力。新航也只是说现财年下半年的运载能力将保持上半年的水平(并非与上财年同期一样)。

  吴俊鹏受询时对记者说:“如果你看上半年新航的成本,除了航油成本之外,其他成本其实是减少了。我们希望继续在这些成本方面努力,还有一些成本的节省可以来自商业伙伴。”

  新航截至9月30日上半年净利仅为2亿3900万元,这比一年前的6亿3300万元低了62%,主要是燃油成本大增造成,近期美元的强劲加剧了燃油成本的上升,燃油成本上半年涨幅接近30%(5亿4600万元),达到23亿8400万元。不过,新航保持大约50%的股息派发率,也坐拥雄厚的资金,现金储备高达60亿元。

局势若恶化
可能延后接收飞机
  新航向来按期接收所订购的新飞机。它昨日表示对目前的资本开销感到舒适,但并不排除万一局势恶化它延后接收飞机的可能,并指出上次金融危机时,它就延后接收了A380空中客车。不过,延后接收飞机也须与飞机制造商经过一番商业谈判。

  在比较这次欧债危机和上次金融危机的严重程度时,吴俊鹏说:“欧洲的问题会是个拖上一段长时间的问题,意即它看来要拖上较长的日子。反观上次金融危机的激烈下跌之后,是快速的回弹,而且油价一度大幅度退低。”

  他指出:“这次油价继续居高不下,目前无法预见油价大跌。所以我们要从其他方面的成本着手,保持公司的敏捷和灵活性。这包括与商业伙伴合作,以取得成本的节省。”

  吴俊鹏也回答了多个关于新航与新廉航Scoot的问题,强调这家中长程廉价航空公司是完全独立运作,能够自主决定要和哪一家公司合作。他也避开新航拥有掌控权的虎航(Tiger Airways)是否将与Scoot廉航进行某些合作,或者新航本身与Scoot合作的问题。

  分析员在评估Scoot的中长程航空服务,是否会损害到新航本身的生意。吴俊鹏认为,Scoot的廉航模式不同于新航,即使航线相同也不会使新航流失顾客。倒是Scoot所提供的服务,将把原本利用区域其他航空中枢飞往远方的旅客,吸引到新加坡。

  另一方面,空中客车公司(Airbus)昨日宣布,新航已签约让它为新航在今年9月订购的15架A330客机,提供“飞行小时服务”(Flight Hour Services)。这是空中客车为新航量身定制的综合式全面服务,包括组件支援、机身维修以及机队技术管理服务。

  新航昨日股价微跌1分或0.09%,收报11.28元。海峡时报指数昨日则收涨1.4%。新航股价一年来已挫跌30%。




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date: 05/11/11

希腊公投风波平息 阴影仍挥之不去

希腊公投风波平息 阴影仍挥之不去

(布鲁塞尔综合电)迫于国内外各方压力,希腊总理帕潘德里欧终于取消公投,悬于一线的欧盟新救助计划以及整套欧债危机应对方案总算得以保全。
  过去两年,尽管欧洲内部不乏把希腊踢出欧元区的声音,甚至有市场人士建议,与这个“毒瘤”做“切割”,但欧洲领导人一再强调,欧元大家庭不会分。如今,因为帕潘德里欧捅了马蜂窝,这条政治禁忌最终被打破。

  一些媒体和政治观察家指出,希腊总理作出公投决定,至少有以下三方面的意图:

  第一,延续政治生命。希腊政府两年多来一次次出台不得人心的紧缩措施,使帕潘德里欧在政治上付出惨重代价。如果此时举行大选,执政党并无多大把握。举行全民公投,则可以转移国内要求提前大选的压力,而且不影响泛希腊社会主义运动的执政地位。

  第二,缓解国内民众的对立情绪。希腊政府推出一系列紧缩措施,普通民众的收入至少缩水25%。因此,紧缩措施实施以来,大小规模的抗议活动几乎天天都有。一些分析人士指出,全民公投将把国家面临的尖锐问题直接诉诸民众,让希腊人民通过手中的选票而不是街头抗议来表达自己的意见,这有利于缓和国内的紧张对立气氛。

  第三,在国际上争取更大支持和同情。帕潘德里欧宣布全民公投,正好在二十国集团峰会前夕。全民公投后果难料,如果新救援方案被否决,希腊可能出现债务违约乃至退出欧元区,这将对欧盟及世界经济产生严重负面影响。在这种情况下,欧盟及二十国集团有可能对希腊作出更多承诺,它反过来将增强帕潘德里欧的执政地位。

  希腊公投风波可能是虚惊一场,但它留下了一个挥之不去的阴影:希腊离开欧元区并非绝无可能。放弃希腊固然可以甩掉一个包袱,但是这么做的危害也不小。

希腊如退出欧元区将有三大负面影响

  中国社会科学院欧洲研究所研究员赵俊杰认为,希腊退出欧元区至少会带来三大负面影响。

  首先,希腊是在自跳火坑。退出欧元区并不能解决希腊的债务问题,无力偿债的希腊只有无序违约,其国内经济将面临崩盘的危险,至少需要数年才能走出混乱。


其次,欧债危机将再掀狂澜,并有可能演变成一场全面的金融危机。意大利和西班牙等国的债务形势将骤然加剧,银行业会面临重大损失。如不做好应急准备,2008年的金融危机将重演,全球经济恐受灾。

  最后,这是对欧元和欧洲一体化进程投不信任票,其政治代价高昂。虽然默克尔表示,希腊退出并不影响欧元区继续存在,但这意味着欧洲一体化进程的重大倒退。

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date: 05/11/11

曾淵滄教路 : 賣豪宅套現50億 嘉華國際大超值

賣豪宅套現50億 嘉華國際大超值
歐債危機總算有一個較理想的解決方案,這是歐盟於十月二十六日會議上最後拍板的結果,十月四日重陽節前,恒指跌至最低點的16,170點,之後就開始大幅反彈,市場開始傳出歐盟會議會尋求一個較長遠的解決方案,之後,會議正式召開前,消息滿天飛,真真假假,再加上德法兩大國的高官們都不希望令人們覺得他們會出很多錢來救希臘,因此都在會議正式開始時潑一些冷水,說不要期望歐盟會議可以一次過解決問題,最後,柳暗花明又一村,會議還是有不錯的結果,因此,恒指16,170點應該是今年的低點了,後市可以更看好。

宏調放寬A股升
美股在歐盟會議後表現得更好,道指上破12,000點,已接近創新高水平,港股因受A股影響,表現比不上美股,但是,不久前溫總露口風說可以微調宏觀調控,A股的表現也開始由最低潮回升,只要A股再升,港股就有條件再看得更好。

過去三個月,人民銀行已經停止加銀行存款準備金,也停止加息,停止發中央票據從銀行抽資。因此,宏觀的確有放寬的迹象,過去大半年,內銀股表現差強人意,跑輸大市,主要原因就是宏觀調控,一旦宏調放寬,內銀股會追落後,前一陣子,眼看內銀股股價跌得太殘,中央匯金竟直接入場扶盤托價,可見中央政府不會讓內銀股股價不斷地下跌,以防止影響整體的金融穩定性。

上星期我撰文談起新地低價中標南昌站,不少人說樓價會大跌,我表示不認同,最近,新地推出將軍澳天晉樓盤,每平方呎售價12,698元,而當年新地買天晉這塊地時成本每平方米1,912元,這進一步證明我的看法正確。在香港,能於數年前洞悉先機,看好豪宅的前途並興建豪宅的地產商一定賺大錢,豪宅與非豪宅最大的分別除了地點外,就是每單位的面積一定要大,將軍澳一般住宅面積介於500平方呎至900平方呎,超過1,000平方呎者極少,而天晉面積達2,000平方呎,所以可以叫價超過每平方呎一萬元,最近幾個星期,嘉華國際(0173)的深灣九號開售,銷情極佳,該樓盤共411個單位,已售出240個單位,套現超過80億元,當深灣九號全部售出後,嘉華國際與其他合作的地產商分帳,估計至少可套現50億,目前,嘉華國際的市值也只不過是這個數字罷了,近幾年,嘉華國際集中力量建豪宅,根本不必擔心曾特首及將來的特首大建居屋,將來香港房價兩極化的情況會更顯著。

地產股跌得不合理
今年,香港地產股的股價出現調整,而且是大調整,可是,香港樓價則硬朗得很、中原城市指數一直徘徊在98點至99點之間,與最高點100點相差僅1%至2%,可見地產股的調整是沒有道理的。


輯錄自 427期 Book A 【曾淵滄教路】

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 東周刊
Publish date: 01/11/11

東觀點 : 希臘衰敗教訓 香港應深思

希臘衰敗教訓 香港應深思
希臘債務瀕臨爆煲,只要骨牌一倒,整個歐洲金融體系即被拖垮,繼而引發全球經濟災難,香港也必遭殃。幸而歐盟上周終與私營銀行達成「削髮」(hair cut)協議,將其債務減除一半共一千億歐元,危機才得以紓緩,可說險過剃頭。但套在頸上的繩索只是稍稍鬆開,「勒斃」的危險還遠未消除。

今次危機揭出的數字,的確令人震驚,希臘人口只得一千一百萬,公共債務竟逾三千億歐元,平均每個國民孭債三十多萬港元,債台之高簡直匪夷所思。這個文明古國竟淪落到如斯田地,成為眾人指罵的「敗家精」,禍源是政府施政嚴重失誤,帶領國家走上一條往地獄之路。香港近期民粹思潮高漲,疑似特首候選人紛紛開出福利期票,在這時候,希臘的負面教訓,很值得大家深切思考。
希臘經濟衰敗、負債纍纍,關鍵原因是陷入了一個萬劫不復的惡性循環:政府長期忽視產業發展,只求連任,不事建設,令經濟增長失去動力,外資卻步不來,在長期入不敷支下,惟有年復一年大量借貸以養活公務員大軍,維持優厚福利制度,結果生產力和效率愈來愈低,工資成本則不斷上升,到頭來把經濟進一步推入無底深淵。

多年來希臘並無振興經濟之策,一直依賴旅遊業,其他產業乏善可陳,出口只以橄欖油之類農產品為主,其他高增值產品少之又少,創新科技更微不足道,整體競爭力日弱。據IMF數字,八一年希臘貿易逆差佔GDP約百分之四,去年增至逾百分之十,對國際市場的出口每況愈下。

產業不振的同時,政府對外資又設立種種關卡,審批程序繁複,加上工資上升、效率低落,外商投資意欲大減,經濟增長更加乏力。

經濟衰頹的結果是稅收日減,以致外匯儲備耗盡,國庫空虛。雖然水源近乎枯竭,政府為了獲得支持,仍不斷增加公務員人數,至今已多達八十萬人,佔就業人口的百分之二十二,而且薪酬連年上升,過去十年便增了一倍,還帶動整體工資高漲。

除了薪高,福利更令人羨慕,部分工種可於五十歲退休,拿原薪八成的長俸,優哉游哉過幾十年。此外,一般職工也可獲種種政府津貼,甚至拿公費出國「浸溫泉」。

福利給了便難以收回,政府為了討好國民保住選票,福利支票愈開愈多,銀碼也愈來愈大。食指浩繁且都要食好的,「持家者」別無選擇,由○三年開始,每年都有赤字,到了兩年前,財政赤字更增至相當於GDP的12.7%。

連年「使大」,錢從何來?希臘政府的答案很簡單,就是「借」!自○一年希臘加入歐元區後,便不斷舉債,而且愈借愈大,遠遠快過經濟增長,今年預計佔GDP 120%以上。負債沉重的後果是政府每年要付巨額利息,又要支撐龐大開支,再無力給疲弱的經濟輸血,更遑論發展教育科技,從事基建。如今卡已碌爆,只能坐以待斃了!

陷於經濟窘境的不只是希臘,意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙等國也同樣水浸眼眉。這些國家政府所犯的同一錯失,可以成為香港政府施政的反面教材,有四個教訓必須記取:第一,推動經濟增長是政府施政第一大方針,如果產業不振經濟不興,稅收必將減縮,甚麼良政都做不成;第二,嚴守財政規律,堅持量入為出,維持豐厚的財政儲備,迫不得已才容許赤字;第三,慎防福利主義膨脹,不應為了民望亂開支票;第四,控制公務員和公共機構人員的增長,避免無限擴大,超乎政府的財政負擔能力。

希臘等國的慘痛經驗證明,民選政府很容易失去上述「定力」,傾向大借大使討好選民,爛攤子留給下屆收拾。香港政府正邁向普選,對這規律和「宿命」應深以為鑑。


輯錄自 427期 Book A 【東觀點】

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 東周刊
Publish date: 01/11/11

大英Blog物館 : 單靠宏觀分析 隨時捉錯用神

單靠宏觀分析 隨時捉錯用神
搜集資訊,輔助操作,除了業績發布,還有同業論壇。同事去了一場經濟研究會,講題是歐元匯價。講者準備相當充分,將長、中、短線因素,全面分析,由購買力評價、經濟增長、通脹,一直講到歐豬債務危機。架構完整,推論也合理,一小時縱論全局,算係咁。結論是歐元兌美金,應該比現時貶值三成。

未抵終點 已輸死
經濟學家的分析時框,動輒以年計,是否正確,有待時日驗證。但最大問題是,就算百分百肯定正確,都難以執行。因為分析不論幾準,最多只能告知目的地,卻沒提供路線圖。假如當天聽講後,急急下注沽歐元,結果會是極速被挾,期貨由1.39直殺至1.42,一張輸幾萬銀,即日被搞掂。即使目標正確,都抵受不了中途跌蕩,倉位捱不到終點。情況就像想行路去北歐,知道方向,帶齊禦寒裝備,卻不知中途原來要經戈壁沙漠,當然熱死渴死收場。

分析不能提供路線,主因是能影響一項資產的因素,實在太多,而且會不停推陳出新。至於各項因素反映的時序,沒有一定規律,數據甚至落後於資產價格走勢。財經專家費雪(Ken Fisher,股神二號師父Philip Fisher孻仔),在其著作《大揭穿》(Debunkery)中,就闡明以經濟數據,尤其是單一因素,對捕捉股市走勢,並無幫助。例如傳統智慧認為,失業率升不利股市,在二○○八年確是如此,但美國失業率升幅最勁的一年是二○○九,也是近年股市最亮麗一年。

據費雪研究,股市領先經濟、失業率落後經濟,是一直以來的常態,因為一般企業,非到萬不得已,不會裁人;一旦落手後,便盡量攤派工作,提升生產力,直至生意再破頂,先會考慮加回。更搞笑的一點,是失業率的分子,是待業人數,即有意搵工而未成功。當景氣恢復,肯重新上路的人數增加,反而會令失業率上升。所以如果要等失業率跌,先入市買股,要等到二○一○年次季,啱啱好撞正上一次歐債危機揭幕,一買即捱。若一心認定失業率續升,年內逆勢造淡,損傷更大。捉錯用神,比沒有分析,衰多二錢重。

使用刪除法投資
一個普及的經濟指標,已足以弄至雞毛鴨血;全盤宏觀分析,途中可能出現的變數、波動更多。那麼是否一切長線分析,都要棄而不用?也許不必,可以從下列方法着手:方法之一,是用很小的注碼,或用期權去執行,以保證可以抵受波動,及大幅出錯時限制損失。方法之二,是將這類宏觀分析,改為配合刪除法使用。一般人的直覺,是將分析結果,用最直接的方法執行,用回上例,看淡歐元便沽空歐元。但這種直線對撼,往往大生大死,極難駕馭。較溫和的做法,是刪除歐元相關資產,不予考慮。當集合不同觀點,刪刪減減,剩下的便是心水組合。如此一樣可受惠於正確分析,卻不用因槓桿對賭,日夜煎熬。


輯錄自 427期 Book A 【大英Blog物館】

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 東周刊
Publish date: 01/11/11

Cosco: Another Disappointing Quarter (Phillip)

Cosco Corporation (S) Ltd –
3Q11 Results- Another Disappointing Quarter
Sell (Downgraded)
Closing Price S$1.02
Target Price S$0.82(-19.6%)
52w k High (1/19/2011) 2.44
52w k Low (10/4/2011) 0.86
• 3Q11 results came in below expectations.
• Expected losses from construction contracts continue to escalate.
• Shipbuilding margins expected to trend down.
• Downgrade from HOLD to SELL with a revised target price of $0.82.

3Q11 Results
Cosco Corp reported 3Q11 revenue and PATMI of S$970 mil (+2% Y-o-Y) and $32 mil (-42% Y-o-Y). PATMI fell sharply mainly due to 1) lower profits from dry bulk shipping 2) lower margins from shipyard ops (expected losses on construction contracts) and 3) higher selling expenses (distribution expense) in a difficult operating environment.

Another Disappointing Quarter-Expected Losses Escalates
Cosco 3Q11 results came in below expectations (Actual PATMI: S$32 mil vs. PSR PATMI estimate: S$39 million). The main culprit was higher expected losses on construction contracts of S$47 mil. We understand from management that the bulk of these expected losses originate from its offshore projects where it experienced cost overruns. The expected losses also provides for penalties stemming from a probable late delivery of one of its vessels currently under construction. The company also mentioned that they might have to recognize further losses in subsequent quarters if they experience further cost overruns or negotiate new shipbuilding/offshore projects at a loss, which we think is highly possible given 1) as it embark on the construction of model/class of rigs not built previously (Letourneau jackups, DP3drillships) and 2) current shipbuilding market remains weak with little signs of improvement (current rates on construction of bulk carriers not profitable). Hellanic Shipping News quoted NDRC saying on Tuesday that 30% of China’s 1,526 shipbuilding enterprises received no new orders in September, forcing some to shut or stop production.

Shipbuilding and offshore margins remain weak
Management guided that gross margins for shipbuilding in 3Q11 lies somewhere between 8 to 9%. The company is working on improving its delivery lead-time as well as efficiencies in the construction of its dry bulk carriers but conceded that there may be a limit to it. Going forward, current margins might not be sustainable due to lower value of shipbuilding contracts in the market now. Cosco currently has enough shipbuilding contracts to keep its yard busy till 2H2012.We note that Cosco has not won any order for dry bulk carrier construction since December last year and if the shipbuilding market does not improve, Cosco may have to accept shipbuilding orders at a loss to cover its fixed costs.

For its offshore projects, management guided that gross margins for its offshore projects lies near the region of 5% and added that it is “ not so promising” as the company is mindful of the potential costs of scaling the “learning curve” when executing its offshore orderbook.

No signs of order cancellations yet
Other than the order cancellation of a dry bulk carrier in March, the company has not yet received any request for order cancellation or postponed delivery. The company also guided that about half of its current shipbuilding orderbook comes from European customers, of which Greek customers make up the highest proportion of its European customers with the rest made up of Netherlands, UK, Belgium and Norwegian customers.

Valuation:
We downgrade Cosco from Hold to Sell with a revised target price of $0.82 as we lower our FY11e and FY12e EPS to 6cts and 5.8 cts from 7.2 cts and 6.6 cts previously, taking into account possible losses from its marine engineering projects as well as a weak dry bulk market that is expected to persist at least till 2012. Our target price of $0.82 is based on 14x FY12e EPS, in-line with mid-cycle valuations. SELL.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Phillip Securities Research
Publish date: 03/11/11

STX OSV: Tighter Norway shipbuilding credit concerns appear overdone (Goldman)

STX OSV Holdings (STXO.SI) S$1.05
Tighter Norway shipbuilding credit concerns appear overdone

News
According to Reuters (28 October), Moody’s downgraded Eksportfinans (ESF; Norwegian Institution for Export Financing) to Aa3 from Aa1. This follows the Norwegian Ministry of Finance’s decision to allow ESF an extended (but not permanent) exception until 31 Dec 2012, to abide by the new rules on large single customer exposure (based on the EU’s Capital Requirement Directive, which Norway follows as it is a member of the European Economic Area). As ESF is a large lender to the Norwegian shipbuilding and O&M industry, we think the market expects a negative impact on new orders outlook. Indeed, STXO – which has 70-80% of orderbook from Norwegian customers and 50% of orderbook being financed through ESF – saw its share price fell 7% today, versus a 5% decline for the sector.

Analysis
At first glance, it appears negative for new orders as: (1) cost of funding could rise following Moody’s downgrade and; (2) customers would see tighter financing from 2013, given the new rules. We see these concerns as overdone given: (1) Moody’s Aa3 rating is still Prime-1 investment grade. Hence, while funding cost for ESF may rise, it is likely immaterial; (2) the exception has been extended twice already and could happen a third time. Companies in the industry we talked to also appeared optimistic that the government would find a solution (i.e. keep to the rule and still allow available financing) on this in due course. In fact, even if this rule is strictly implemented, we believe commercial banks can step in to fill the financing gap, as our European banking team believes banks are willing to lend to high quality customers (e.g. O&M-related companies). We have already cut our STXO 2011-13E new orders estimates by 14-37% in our 19 Oct report to account for a potentially weaker outlook ahead.

Implications
We see the negative market reaction as overdone, and think this is an attractive opportunity for investors to add to STXO’s shares. Target price unchanged.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Goldman-Research
Publish date:02/11/11

CMT: Placement to keep gearing healthy (RBS)

CapitaMall Trust
Target price S$2.19
Price S$1.89

Placement to keep gearing healthy
CMT is carrying out a placement to raise up to S$300m. The main objective of this placement is to finance its asset enhancement projects. The placement also helps to strengthen the trust's balance sheet, lowering its gearing to about 39% from 40.1%. Maintain Buy.

􀀟 CMT is carrying out a private placement to raise S$250m from institutional and other investors. The placement also has an upsize option which allows CMT to raise another S$50m.

􀀟 The issue price range is between S$1.79 and S$1.85 per unit, representing a 1.3-4.5% discount to CMT's last traded price of S$1.875.

􀀟 Depending on the price of the placement share and whether the upsize option is exercised, CMT will issue between 135.1-167.6m new units, representing a 4.2-5.3% increase in the total number of units in issue.

􀀟 The management has stated that 90-95% of the proceeds would be used to finance its existing capital expenditure and asset enhancement projects, including JCube, The Atrium @ Orchard and Iluma. The remaining 5-10% will be used for general purposes. We estimate that a total of S$250m would be required for the refurbishments of these three assets next year.

􀀟 We believe that this placement will have limited impact on CMT. We estimate that the placement would lead to a 1.4-1.8% decrease in our valuation. However, it also helps CMT to lower its gearing to about 39%, from 40.1%. We estimate that gearing would increase to about 42% next year due to increased capex from the refurbishments, assuming there was no placement. CMT has indicated that it intends to maintain its gearing level at 40% and below.

􀀟 We view the placement as mildly positive, as it will keep gearing low. It also signals that more significant refurbishments of other assets, such as Clarke Quay and IMM Building, are in the pipeline, in our view. We maintain our Buy rating on CMT, TP S$2.19.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: RBS-Research
Publish date:31/10/11

MPCorp to begin works on city in Iskandar soon

The Star Online > Business
Saturday November 5, 2011

MPCorp to begin works on city in Iskandar soon

By CHOONG EN HAN
han@thestar.com.my


PETALING JAYA: Malaysia Pacific Corp Bhd (MPCorp) hopes to start civil construction works for its flagship project in Iskandar Malaysia by the first quarter next year, starting with the infrastructure surrounding its Asia Pacific Trade and Expo City (APTEC).

Speaking on the sidelines of the World Chinese Economic Forum, chairman Datuk Bill Ch’ng the company would collaborate with the Government to integrate and build the infrastructure and amenities like roads, rails and highways that would connect to the city.

He said the investment for APTEC, one of Iskandar Malaysia’s flagship projects, was about RM2.9bil from the total investment of RM4.5bil in the Lakehill Resort City.

“We are still in the midst of discussion with different investors and it will be partly funded by AmanahRaya,” he said.

APTEC and the LakeHill Resort City are developed by LakeHill Resort Development Sdn Bhd, a joint-venture between MPCorp and AmanahRaya Development Bhd.

Ch’ng said the development of APTEC, which was envisioned to be a major trading hub in the region for manufacturers and buyers alike, would not be undertaken on a piecemeal basis.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: The Star Online
Publish date: 05/11/11

一个温州女人

2011年11月03日 07:37 AM
一个温州女人
英国《金融时报》中文网专栏作家 许知远


“现在说还有什么用,都没用了”,我们坐下的一刻,她这么说。

她还是把故事又说了一遍。

她穿着黑裤子,蓝色的线绒衣,短圆脸上除去皱纹,还有焦虑、冤屈与轻微的愤怒。一直到9月,她还是这个创业精神浓厚的城市的成功者,可能再度迎来新突破,她的工厂名字正是“腾飞”,她叫项碎兰。

对于她的人生前半段,她一句带过。而这也不是个追问的好时刻,她被一种深切的焦虑和不平占据了。她出生于1960年,只上到小学五年级辍学,这可能是文化革命的时代原因,也可能仅仅是家庭选择,一个农村女孩不要读太多书。她开始随着大人到附近的瑞安卖毛线。这是温州兴起的时刻,在整个中国仍陷于计划体制的禁锢时,温州人则玩起市场游戏。不过十年,他们创造出一个个产业群,这个镇子都是纽扣,下个村子都在生产变压器,隔壁镇则都是皮鞋……

临街的前屋是展示店铺,后面则是工厂,简陋的工厂一家接一家,而加工、包装、运输,一条龙式的服务就沿街道展开。这些产品轻易地征服了全国,甚至销往了海外。经过三十年重工业主导的发展,中国人的日常用品匮乏得可怕。社会学家费孝通创造出“小商品,大市场”来形容它,它也是八十年代改革精神的象征,被称作“温州模式”。它也是绵延了两个世纪的工业革命的最近一幕。它从18世纪的英国发端,接着到了欧洲大陆与北美、日本,20世纪后中叶,它又转移到东南亚,亚洲四小龙因此兴起,如今它到了中国。

项碎兰是这股浪潮的创造者与受益者。到了八十年代末,卖毛线的小女孩已在上海兴建了棉纺厂。一九九五年,当温州龙湾区的工业园区建立后,她把工厂迁回家乡,她是工业园区最早的两三个企业主。

接下来的十六年,一切稳定顺利。工厂的雇员将近百人,年产值也有两千万。但困难也一直存在。尤其原料、人工、贷款的利率都在上涨,产品的利润越来越薄了,这也是中小企业面临的普遍问题。很多企业干脆把资金投入到利率更高的地产、股票中。

她想通过新产品来应对,转产一种专供拉链使用的纤维纺织品。“温州还没有人生产这个产品,需求量很大。如果我们买了新机器,工人只需要30多个,每年的产值却能到4、5个亿。”她说。

8月,她和同事在在萧山考察了一个星期。9月2日,她向绍兴一家公司订购了新机器。她在工厂里安装摄像头,撬开地板,搬走老机器,准备安装新设备。一切顺利的话,11月就可以投产。

但不到两个星期,一切都变了。9月12日,传出吴保忠“跑路”的消息,他是温州宝康不锈钢有限公司老板。夏天以来,这样的消息不时传出,它涉及到皮革厂、连锁咖啡店、电子公司、制鞋商、电器公司……它是这个城市日益浮现的危机的征兆。几年来,一场疯狂的金钱游戏席卷了温州,街道上是不断涌现出的担保公司、寄售行、典当行与投资服务公司,而茶馆、酒店大堂、餐厅、KTV里,人们谈着拆借与利息。

对于外界来说,这是富有、贪婪的温州人新表现,他们炒楼、炒矿、炒媒,这一次他们直接炒钱。从市民到公务员、企业家,它涉及的人群广泛。它与人性的贪婪有关,所有的危机不都是由没有节制的贪欲导致的吗?而在中国,或许在全球范围,很少有人比温州人更钟情于金钱与生意的了。它当然也与国际环境事件有关,温州人聚集的大量金钱,在迪拜的投资、在莫斯科大市场的危机,当然还有山西煤矿的国有化中,都遭遇重大挫败。但倘若深入下去,它更与体制的困境有关,是这种体制造就了一场实业危机,让金钱投向逐利性更高的高利贷行业,它的回报率有的高达一年180%。它也是温州长久以来的地下金融系统,它是对僵化的官方金融体制的补充。

但没什么行业可以支持这样高的回报率,总有一个时刻,资金链会断掉,它会反作用到本就在危机中的制造业。到了8月,情况更严重了。仅仅在龙湾区,就发生了20多起,其中设计10亿元的就有三起,谣言四处蔓延。

她从未想过这与自己有关。她从未借过高利贷,她的银行贷款要到明年才到期。吴保忠的失踪让她感到了直接的冲击。她的工厂与宝康不锈钢有限公司有关联担。腾飞连同她个人向宝康提供银行贷款担保1600万,而宝康则为腾飞担保800万元担保。不过,她也没太过担心,她相信自己会和银行说明情况,这笔担保贷款也没足以威胁到她的工厂。

她没想到,在宝康事发后四天,台州银行温州支行就上门催要尚未到期的贷款。恐慌性情绪已经四处迷漫,这些一年前还热情放贷的银行,变得过度敏感,纷纷要提前回首贷款。“六个人在工厂里东看西看,你叫工人们怎么想”,她回忆说。银行职员还把她带到宝康公司的一处仓库,希望她能搬走残留的资产。三天后,情况恶化了,支行的行长把自己的奥迪车横堵在工厂的门口,除非立刻还款。她甚至需要报警来交涉。

这一景象被对面工厂的一个女孩用手机拍了下来,随即被发上了微博,还附上了这样评论:“公司对面的腾飞化纤制品的老板欠银行贷款连夜运设备逃跑了,工人在大闹,银行警察都来调解!唉,现在办企业都难,打工的更难,工资一分钱没到手,厂都人去楼空了!”

这或许仅仅是一个目击者的臆测,在这敏感的时刻,微博的传播速度与范围,让它变成了致命一击,而且以项碎兰从未想过、也难以理解的方式。

一家接一家的银行开始催款,到了9月底,连与她关系最密切的银行也失去了耐心。她不断地凑钱还贷,家里的房产也被抵押出去。



“我觉得太冤枉了”,几乎每隔十分钟,她都要说一次。她的工厂运转良好,她从未参与高利贷,银行的贷款也未到期,她为何要成为牺牲品。她遭遇的危机,不仅是生意上的失败,是对她人生信念的颠覆。

“刚办厂的五、六年,我都没回过家,一直睡在厂里的沙发上”,她说,尽管她的家就离工厂六、七公里。她的母亲就住在不远处的状元镇,但她也难得回去照顾她。她从未出门旅行过,不仅没去美国探望过亲戚,甚至北京也没去过,她最远只到过江苏和上海,都是为了进货。

“我们哪里是老板呀”,她感慨道,“从买原料、销售到财务、食堂买菜,都是我一个人干“。对她来说,现在的工人也不比十年前,“他们不高兴了,说不干就不干了。”

让她最愤怒的是台州银行与对面工厂的女孩的微博,她相信,是他们的不负责导致了腾飞的困境。她多少也感到了某种困惑,一个经营良好的公司缘何这么快地陷入危机。

这一天上午,我去看了她的工厂。龙湾工业区的主要是皮革厂,空气中散发着浓重的臭气。除去一个看门的湖北老人,厂里空无一物,只剩下空荡荡的水泥柱与撬坏的地板。作为原料的棉絮挂满了屋角与窗户。而原是工人宿舍的两栋三层小楼里,只剩下残破的桌椅、墙壁上贴的美女招贴与骚动的青年写下的绵绵情话。

湖北的老人五十五岁,对于正发生一切茫然无知。当摄影师为他拍照时,他习惯性地立正,双手服帖地放在两侧,目不转睛的看着镜头。看着他严肃又不自在的表情,还有脸上的皱纹,我感到一阵感伤。

他的肢体语言是我再熟悉不过的了,他今年55岁,经历过饥荒、政治运动、武斗,生活对他来说只是命令与服从,他很少有主动权。自从1992年,他一直在外打工,从广东到广西,现在又到了温州,他在鞋厂、纺织厂、玩具厂都干过。一年前,他从广东惠州的一家公司二楼摔了下来,后背受伤。半年前,他成了腾飞公司的看门人——“我儿子不让干重活了,看门比较轻省”。

他的妻子早就离开他了,而他的三个儿子也都在外,小儿子在潮州,老大、老二都在温州,也都成了家。

“你们过年时,还回湖北老家吗?”我在空荡荡的车间里问他。

“回家,哪还有家呀”,他的情绪突然有点激动。是啊,家里早已没人,儿子们也不愿回家。他们早已四海为家、或者无家可归,这些内陆人为沿海人提供了经济起飞的源源不断、低廉的劳动力。

我也去项碎兰二楼的办公室,空荡荡的房间的一面墙上挂了好几幅荣誉证书,它们来自不同的银行与信用社,表明这家工厂是多么的信誉卓著、值得信赖。但此刻,它变成了一种嘲讽。

站在厂房的二楼,我看到对面的树脂厂的红旗在飘,这是最令项碎兰愤怒的地方。发出致命的微博的女孩,是这家工厂的一位股东的女儿。很有可能,她也不知问题的严重性。但她拒绝做出道歉,让项碎兰难以接受。信心才是一个商业环境的基础,谣言摧毁了信心,随之一切都毁了。

“我都不想活了”,十月初,她在医院里住了三天,经常半夜惊醒,想不通这一切是怎么发生的。

她不抱怨还债与坏运气,她愿意因为错误担保宝康而承担责任。让她愤怒的是不公,是缺乏合理的规则。那些催她还贷的银行,应该遵守合约,或至少要等宝康的资产拍卖后,再追加她的赔偿。在地方政府决定救助时,却只把焦点放在了大型企业,却对她这样的中小企业没有政策帮助。她也气愤发布谣言的女孩,没有承担相应的法律惩罚。



我试着把她从愤怒的情绪摆脱出来,随着语气不断的激烈起来,屋内的气氛有点压抑。

我问起她的个人生活。她有姊妹六人,其中三人在美国。“就是在唐人街”,她说。她多少觉得,唐人街本身是一个地方,而不管它在纽约、洛杉矶还是旧金山。

她的丈夫在厨房里炒菜,过来递过一次烟,看得出是一个忠厚的人,多年前,他的耳朵聋了,工厂的事都靠她。她的儿子也过来一次,拿着iPad给他妈妈看一篇关于她的报道。他是个时髦的青年,也看得出,他是不可能替母亲承担些什么。

再读到《21世纪经济报道》上对她的报道时,她脸上露出了少见的放松,文章对她的遭遇满是同情。她不住地说女记者,仿佛找到某种确认。当我们表示出同情,赞赏她的能干时,她脸上有流露出腼腆,既感激又不知所措。

但我们鼓励她直接去向政府部门申诉时,她又对自己的身份产生了不信任:“我一个女人去说不好吧”。

隔壁的工地的水泥搅拌机一直响个不停。

“晚上会吵你们睡觉吧?”。

“不会,我们在工厂里的机器更响,要是不响,反而睡不着了”,她说。

天色暗了下来,我起身离去。她送我到门口。她的三层小楼已被抵押,

倘若明年春节再不还银行贷款,房子就要被拍卖了。

“这个厂子一定要办”,我不由得被她的坚强打动。她也对自己的能力、也对自己选择的产业有信心,“从哪里摔倒,就从哪里爬起来。”与其说,这是生意上的决心,不如说她要挽回自己的尊严。

离开村子前,我远远地透过窗户,看她穿过客厅,走到厨房炒菜的丈夫身边。一天疲惫的生活要暂告段落。我突然觉得,无论发生什么,她终究会在站起来,取得更大的成功。

(注:本文仅代表作者本人观点。)

本文编辑刘波bo.liu@ftchinese.com

本文的网址:http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001041517

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: FT中文网
Publish date: 3/11/11

救温州不能“头痛医头”

救温州不能“头痛医头”
上海交通大学高级金融学院副院长 朱宁 为英国《金融时报》中文网撰文 2011-11-01 (www.ftchinese.com)
最近,对于温州金融危机该不该救和怎么救,社会上和学术界都展开了一些讨论。讨论的内容,竟和2008年金融危机时,以美国为首的西方各国对于是否救助和怎样救助危机中的银行业的讨论,惊人的相似。

在电影《大而不倒》中,观众经常听到监管者和高管们提到的一句话是“我们已没有时间(Time is running out)”。一句话,略去了多少应该进行的深入讨论。所幸的是,对于这一次以温州为代表的中小企业融资危机,因为关注比较及时,所以中国无论在防范风险向更大规模扩散、减小危机对地方经济的影响、还是扶持救助受困企业及员工方面,都比两三年前的美欧政策制定者处于更有利的地位,也更能够对整个事态进行认真和科学的分析。

在全球金融危机平息后的两三年,很多观察家仍然对美国政府在危机中所作的三个决定不认可。首先,政府利用纳税人资金,为银行家们提供救助。最终结果是,美国用国家信用为金融机构的企业信用买单,导致美国国债评价遭到历史性的下调。

其次,在救助过程中厚此薄彼,缺乏原则。美国政府先是救助了贝尔斯登,但此后放弃救助规模更大、影响也更大的雷曼兄弟。然而不到一个月,又改变方向救助了规模更大的美国国际集团和大型商业银行。政府行为的随意性在整个过程中暴露无遗。

第三,是美国政府为了一己私利,进行大规模量化宽松,不但给国际金融市场带来冲击,也严重扭曲了美国国内经济体系和价格信号,导致全球经济迟迟难以恢复。

在西方政策制定者反思金融危机过程中所做决定的同时,我们或许可以从中吸取以下三点经验教训。

首先,经济运行有其周期及自然规律。最近一次全球金融危机固然是由全球经济金融体系中的长期不平衡导致的,但更直接的原因是,以美联储为首的发达国家央行在应对20世纪90年代一系列迷你危机过程中投放的过量流动性,导致整个全球经济金融体系处于一个史无前例的高度投机阶段。危机的爆发,无非是泡沫堆积阶段的庞氏骗局的集中破败。

美国政府在危机中的一系列针对短期问题的应急政策,大多在事后被认为其实加重了美国经济在过去几十年不断加重的结构性问题,也最终导致了“占领华尔街”事件的上演。

任何以为利用短期政策应对,就可以解决长期经济问题的想法,都应被戴上“过度自信”的帽子,并很可能被现实的“飞去来器”所击伤。

温州问题,代表了我国以出口为主导的经济发展模式在经济取得长足发展后所面临的问题,也代表了很多其他以外向为主导的新兴经济的社会和经济问题。因此要解决这个问题,尤其是在问题还没严重到危及整个经济的时候,应该更多从转换长期经济增长模式入手,而非只是通过短期内提供大量资金的“头痛医头”的做法。

其次,微观的救助可能导致宏观问题的持续和加重。最近众多外资银行纷纷出现盈利大幅下滑,甚至亏损的局面,欧洲政府不得不又一次面对金融机构救或不救,怎么救,用什么救的难题。不同的是,这一次欧洲政府可运用的弹药比金融危机中要有限得多,面对的政治和经济压力比上次却要大得多。不但是金融机构,连希腊,西班牙,意大利等国的政府也发现,它们这一次不再以救助者的身份出现在谈判桌上,而是作为银行业的间接受害者(collateral damage),一起出现在了被救助的一方。

究其原因,金融机构的债务和高杠杆化在对危机的救助中,迅速转化为主权政府的债务和高杠杆化,是欧洲主权债务危机的根源。近期国内出现的一系列事件,例如城投债事件、企业债信用降级、以及近期的温州高利贷崩盘,背后其实也都闪烁着民间资本、地方政府、中央政府之间信用的更迭替换。在高度金融化的时代,信用就是资金。凭借中国振奋人心的经济增速,中国中央政府的背书一直都是最有效的信用提升工具和中国最有力量的资本。正因为如此,政府才更应该更加珍惜自己来之不易的信用,谨慎从事,避免在短期内过度注入资金和信用,以防有朝一日危及自己的声誉。

最后,对过程的监管和保护应重于对结果的监管和保护。美联储和美国证监会在2008年金融危机中几乎丧失了它们在过去整整一个世纪里积累起来的公信力。它们非但在金融危机酝酿的过程中,没有对金融机构的信息披露、风险管理进行必要监管,而且在危机期间,在救助谁、怎么救的问题上表现出极大的随意性和不一致性,加重了危机的爆发并延后了全球经济的恢复。

温州危机的解决,也面临类似的难题。救这个地区还是那个地区?救这个行业还是那个行业?救这个企业还是那个企业?救企业主还是一般员工?魔鬼栖身于细节里。政府对某个具体地区和企业的直接援助,有可能会挤压到其他地区和企业的资源,造成对整个经济更严重的扭曲和打击。

瑞士政府在危机过程中对受到巨大冲击的瑞士银行(UBS)提供了大量的救助,并迫使其进行深层次的检讨和改革。不料在这一系列改革措施尚未完全得以实施之际,瑞士银行又一次曝出了魔鬼交易员在原本低风险的业务里违规操作,交易爆仓导致数十亿美元损失的丑闻。由此可见,保护永远只能是保护一时。

温州危机,要不要救,怎么救,拿什么救,都是值得认真讨论的重要问题迫切问题。但更重要的,是怎样制定政策,防止类似危机在另一个角落酝酿爆发。

(注:本文仅代表作者观点,作者同时是耶鲁国际金融中心教授研究员 。本文编辑 徐瑾 jin.xu@ftchinese.com)

本文的网址:http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001041456


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: FT中文网
Publish date: 1/11/11

Yeo Hiap Seng 3Q net profit doubles

KUALA LUMPUR: Yeo Hiap Seng Bhd’s (YHS) net profit has doubled to RM8.27 million for 3QFY11 ended Sept 30 from RM4.05 million a year earlier.

The beverage manufacturer’s revenue rose 27% to RM147.13 million from RM116.28 million. Earnings per share came in at 5.42 sen against 2.65 sen in the previous corresponding period.

The sharp jump in YHS’ earnings was mainly due to the one-off RM4.11 million gain from liquidation of a subsidiary during the quarter under review.

“The increase in sales is mainly due to more advertising and promotion activities undertaken during the Hari Raya festive period,” YHS said in notes accompanying its financials.

Its sales for Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore plus other countries grew year-on-year by 18%, 368% and 8% respectively during the quarter, YHS said.

For the nine-month period ended Sept 30, net profit surged by 363% to RM20.02 million from RM4.32 million a year earlier, while revenue rose by 12% to RM414.86 million from RM370.7 million.

“The improved profitability in the quarter and year-to-date was due to better sales, less bad debts write-off and gain on disposal of machinery,” YHS said.

For the nine-month period, sales from Malaysia accounted for 76.3%, Indonesia 6.3% and Singapore/other countries 17.4%.

“Yeo’s brand sales in Malaysia grew by 12%, Indonesia sales grew by 227% and Singapore/export sales grew by 18%,” YHS said of its year-to-date results.

It is noteworthy that over the past seven years, the earnings that have been achieved so far is YHS’ best cumulative nine months results, in terms of net profit.

YHS has a clean balance sheet that sits on a net cash pile of RM22.8 million with no borrowings.

Shares in YHS closed four sen lower to RM1.71 yesterday, giving it a market capitalisation of RM262.57 million. Its stock has gained 16.3% year-to-date and traded between a 52-week high of 2.04 sen and a low of 1.40 sen.


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, November 4, 2011.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.theedgemalaysia.com
Publish date: 04/11/11

Malaysia Smelting Corp 3Q net profit RM41.81m, but outlook cautious

KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 4): MALAYSIA SMELTING CORPORATION [] Bhd posted net profit of RM41.81 million in the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2011 compared with net loss of RM37.05 million a year ago where there was impairment provision for goodwill of RM73.63 million.

MSC said on Friday that revenue increased by 25.9% to RM907.04 million from RM719.96 million. Earnings per share were 41.80 sen compared with loss per share of 49.40 sen.

It posted a 121.7% increase in pre-tax profit of RM51.91 million before unusual items from RM23.41 million. This was due to higher profits from its tin mining and smelting operations in Malaysia and Indonesia mainly due to an improved operating performance and higher average tine prices.

There was an impairment provision for goodwill arising from acquisition of subsidiaries totaling RM73.63 million.

“However, for the current year is expected the operating environment to be difficult and challenging due to the weaker demand for commodities due to prevailing global economic slowdown and on-going uncertainty in the global finance markets,” it said. However it expected to remain profitable in the fourth quarter.

For the nine-month period, it recorded net profit of RM106.39 million versus net loss of RM58.20 million in the previous corresponding period. Revenue increased by 25.2% to RM2.497 billion from RM1.994 billion.

It said for the nine-month period in 2010, the impairment provision for goodwill arising from acquisition of subsidiaries was RM121.63 million


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.theedgemalaysia.com
Publish date: 04/11/11

Friday, November 4, 2011

2011-1028-57金錢爆(希遊記最終回)



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date:28/10/11

Hi-P: 3Q11 below estimates; another weak quarter (CS)

Hi-P
Price (01 Nov 11 , S$) 0.57
TP (prev. TP S$) 0.60 (0.95)
52-wk range (S$) 1.24 - 0.49
Maintain NEUTRAL
3Q11 below estimates; another weak quarter

● Hi-P reported weak 3Q11 results, and below our estimates, with revenue at S$308.6 mn (+8% YoY, +34% QoQ) and a net profit of S$6.5 mn (-83% YoY, -42% QoQ). 9MTD revenue and net profit achieved 65% and 47% of our full-year forecasts, respectively.

● Gross margin declined to 8.7% (from 22.6% a year ago, and 13.2% in 2Q11) due to pricing pressure, a less favourable product mix (more high level assembly work with higher material input costs), as well as higher-than-expected increases in labour and depreciation charges.

● Hi-P’s balance sheet was at S$201 mn net cash (from S$193 mn at end-June 2011). Into 4Q11, management expects revenues to rise both QoQ and YoY, and full-year revenue to rise YoY but earnings to decline YoY.

● We have cut our forecasts by 33-39% on lower gross margin assumption, with management now targeting 12% for the year (from 13-16% previously). With increasing vulnerability at RIMM, we cut our target price to S$0.60. We see support at 0.8x P/B and net cash of S$0.23/share. Maintain NEUTRAL rating.

3Q11 results below estimates
Hi-P reported weak 3Q11 results, and below our estimates, with revenue at S$308.6 mn (+8% YoY, +34% QoQ) and a net profit of S$6.5 mn (-83% YoY, -42% QoQ). 9MTD revenue and net profit achieved 65% and 47% of our full-year forecasts, respectively.

Gross margin missed
Gross margin declined to 8.7% (from 22.6% a year ago, and 13.2% in 2Q11) due to pricing pressure, a less favourable product mix (more high level assembly work with higher material input costs) as well as higher-than-expected increases in labour and depreciation charges.

Balance sheet at S$201 net cash
Hi-P’s balance sheet was at S$201 mn net cash (from S$193 mn at end-June 2011). Into 4Q11, management expects revenues to rise both QoQ and YoY, and full-year revenue to rise YoY but earnings to decline YoY.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Credit Suisse
Publish date:02/11/11

NOL:Bigger losses, as expected (DBSV)

Neptune Orient Lines
FULLY VALUED S$1.14
Price Target : 12-month S$ 1.05

Bigger losses, as expected
• Net loss of US$91m largely in line with estimates
• Low freight rates compounded by high fuel costs
• Balance sheet could come under increased stress
• Maintain FULLY VALUED with S$1.05 TP

Losses continue to mount. As we had expected, NOL recorded a bigger net loss of US$91m in 3Q11 – compared to the US$57m net loss in 2Q11 – and quite close to our recent projection of US$75m net loss. NOL was unable to pass through any peak season surcharges in 3Q11 given the prevailing oversupply of vessels. Average freight rates for 3Q11 came in at US$2,539/ FEU, down 19% y-o-y and flat q-o-q. The container shipping division reported an operating loss of US$88m, despite overall volume growth of 6.7% y-o-y.

Volumes were driven by the Intra-Asia trades (up 25% y-o-y), while Transpacific volumes were again disappointing (down 10% y-o-y). High bunker fuel prices YTD have meant a 45% increase in unit fuel costs in 3Q11, leading to a 3% q-o-q increase in operating expenses per TEU to US$2,850/ FEU, and dragging down profitability further.

Outlook remains grim. We remain pessimistic on the container liners’ outlook in the near term. Unless we see a coordinated effort by the liners to lay up capacity to the tune of at least 5-6% of fleet or clear signs of inventory restocking activities in the US, we are unlikely to call for a bottom. We expect NOL to remain in the red in FY12/13.

Balance sheet looking increasingly stretched. NOL has already incurred more than US$1.2bn in capex YTD in FY11, and will need to invest similar amounts in FY12/13 to finance its existing orderbook of 34 new vessels. Net gearing level is already up to 0.56x at end-3Q11 from 0.12x at end-FY10, and could fast hit unsustainable levels if losses continue, which could even lead to a cash call by the end of FY12. Hence, given the heightened uncertainties, we maintain our FULLY VALUED call on the stock with an unchanged TP of S$1.05.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: DBS Vickers Research
Publish date: 01/11/11

CMT: Fund-raising proposed (BNP)

CAPITAMALL TRUST
TARGET : SGD2.09
CLOSE: SGD1.88
Fund-raising proposed
_
EVENT
Proposed private placement to raise up to SGD300m
CapitaMall Trust (CMT) has proposed to carry out a private placement of up to 139.7m new units at an issue price range of between SGD1.79 and SGD1.85 per new unit, to raise gross proceeds of about SGD250m, subject to an upsize option to issue an additional of 27.9m new units to raise up to an additional SGD50m.

SUMMARY
Use of proceeds for asset enhancement initiative (AEI) works
CMT intends to use most (90-95%) of the proceeds to fund its asset enhancement works, including on-going projects at JCube, The Atrium@Orchard and Illuma. Management had earlier guided SGD350m capex requirement for these 3 projects and we estimate SGD100m has been used so far. The remaining 5-10% is for working capital purposes.

VALUATION
Slight DPU dilution by 4.2-5.4%
We estimate the placement will dilute DPU by 4.2-5.4%, depending on the final placement quantum. The debt-to-asset ratio would improve from 40.1% to 38.8%. Asset value remains well supported by firm retail asset valuation (revalued up by SGD137m in June 11, over December 2010). By proactively managing its capital structure, CMT will have greater financial flexibility to meet capex requirements for asset enhancements that could generate high ROIs, such as JCube (ROI estimated at 9.7% post-AEI works), Atrium@Orchard (10.4%) and Illuma (at 22.4%), and preserve cash pile for new AEI projects, or even opportunistic acquisitions. We maintain our BUY rating. CMT currently trades at 1.2x 2012E P/B.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: BNP PARIBAS SECURITIES
Publish date: 31/10/11
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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