Saturday, October 8, 2011

曾淵滄教路:與其胡亂溝貨 不如用平均成本法

與其胡亂溝貨 不如用平均成本法
無可否認,目前絕大部分的股份的股價都相當的低,相當值得買,但是股市永遠有一句正確的老話:「低處不算低」,誰也不知道在目前你認為是低價的水平買股之後,過一段日子會不會出現更低的股價?也因此,更多人寧可採取觀望態度,不敢貿然入市,目前每天在市場裏打滾的人多多少少都有一些賭一賭的心態,前一陣子,也有不少人認為股價已相當低廉,於是入場買股,哪裏知道,買後再跌,不知怎麼辦,更有人在一注買入後,股價再跌再投入一注,再三而跌再投入第三注……不斷地「溝」貨之後錢用光了,滿手蟹貨,更不知如何是好?

分段買入難執行
一些投資專家在股價低廉時會建議你「分段買入」或「分注買入」,可惜,如何「分段」,如何「分注」呢?沒有多少專家曾經清楚說明白。

如果所謂的分注買入是買了之後股價下跌再買,那與「溝貨」有甚麼分別?

很多人在股價低迷時都不敢孤注一擲,這是正常的,孤注一擲的風險不輕,除非你有百分百的把握,而且投入的資金全是屬於「可以丟到海裏而不影響生活」的多餘錢,否則這種風險是不太值得,不孤注一擲,那麼該分多少注,如何分注,何時入第二注,第三注……

二○○八年年底至二○○九年初,我不斷地在傳媒鼓勵大家入市,當時也有不少朋友入市,但是,當時他們畢竟沒多大信心,都不敢孤注一擲,本打算分段買入,僅投入小小的一注,哪裏知道,股市在當時終於見了底回升了,升勢也相當快,很快的,股價可能上升一倍、兩倍,這些人都不敢再買了,眼看着股價一升再升,自己手上的股票非常少,一等再等,愈等愈不耐煩,終於忍不住高價再追,以很高價的水平再追,平均起來成本已不低,近日股市大幅下瀉,這些人算起來發現自己正處於帳面虧蝕的困境。

我認為最正確的分段入注應該採用平均成本法買入,以平均成本買入時是每個月,或每星期指定一個固定的時間買入,不論該日股價是升或是跌。

平均成本法不是用來博撈底反彈,而是一種長遠的長期投資法,是不論牛市、熊市皆在固定日期買入,然後長期、超長期的持有。


選有長遠前景股份
當然,平均成本法的最先決條件是所選擇的股票或股價必須是穩建的,長遠而言有前途的,幸好香港股市在過去數十年已向市場證明這個市場是一個長期看升的市場。

採用平均成本方法入市者必須有超人的耐性,超人的忍受壓力的能力,入市後不論股價升跌,皆能按計劃再買,長期的買,因為這種投資法需要超人的耐性及忍受壓力,因此多數人會把打算用於平均成本法投資的錢交給基金經理打理。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 東周刊 輯錄自 423期 Book A
Publish date: 06/10/11

Falling container-vessel rates signalUS slowdown, losses for shipping lines

Falling container-vessel rates signal
US slowdown, losses for shipping lines

Plunging rates for chartering container vessels that carry sneakers, furniture and flat-screen TVs may signal a US consumer slowdown and losses for shipping lines in what is traditionally their busiest time of the year.

Fees for hiring vessels have fallen 9.3% since end-April, according to the Howe Robinson Container Index, which tracks charter rates for a range of vessels. Last year, the index surged 56% in the period, as lines added ships on demand from US and European retailers restocking for the back-to-school and holiday shopping periods.

"The troubling part is that charter rates are falling in the peak season,” says Johnson Leung, head of regional transport at Jefferies Group Inc in Hong Kong. “Sentiment among consumers and retailers isn’t very strong.”

Lines including
Hanjin Shipping Co, Orient Overseas (International) Ltdand Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd have also delayed the introduction of peak-season surcharges on Asia-US routes by about two months as US unemployment above 9% and slowing sales of new homes dampen demand. Combined inbound container traffic at Los Angeles and Long Beach, the two busiest US ports, dropped 4.6% in June, the first decline since January 2010, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“The delay in imposing peak-season surcharges shows how dire the situation is,” says Um Kyung A, a Shin young Securities Co analyst in Seoul, who has cut her rating on Korean shipping lines to “neutral” from “overweight”.“The US economy isn’t recovering fast enough to help increase demand,” she says.

China Shipping Container Lines Co, the nation’s second-biggest cargo-box carrier, fell as much as 9% on July 28, the biggest intraday drop since May last year, to HK$2.12 in Hong Kong. China Cosco Holdings Co, the nation’s largest, declined as much as 5.1% to HK$5.42.Hanjin Shipping Co, South Korea’s largest container shipping company, dropped as much as 4.7% in intraday trading in Seoul.

US orders for durable goods unexpectedly dropped 2.1% in June, the Commerce Department says, as companies lost confidence in the strength of the recovery.

The cost of shipping 40ft containers to the US West Coast from China has slumped 42% over the past year to about US$1,600 ($1,923)per box, according to data from Clarkson Securities Ltd, a unit of the world’s largest ship-broker. Derivatives show the price won’t exceed US$1,962 before end-2012

Concerns about the sustainability of economic growth are also contributing to container lines renting ships for shorter periods. Average charter lengths have declined to seven months from 10 months at the beginning of the year, according to Alphaliner.

Shipping lines are also contending with fuel costs that have jumped 53% in a year in Singapore trading, alongside a rise in oil prices and an expanding global fleet. There were 5,056 container ships afloat at the start of July, from 4,968 at the start of January, according to ship-broker Clarkson plc. Total capacity increased 5% in the period to 14.89 million boxes.

Rising fuel costs and declining rates mean that China Shipping will likely report a 1H loss, it said on July 28. Hong Kong-based Orient Overseas last week said the full-year out-look was “disappointing”.

Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd, Japan’s third-biggest shipping line, has also made losses on some container routes, president Jiro Asakura said in a June interview. The shipping line has plunged 30% in a year in Tokyo trading. In Hong Kong, Orient Overseas has slumped 24% and China Shipping has tumbled 25%.

Lines including Kawasaki Kisen, Orient Overseas, Mitsui OSK and Hanjin Shipping are seeking to impose peak-season levies of US$400 per 40ft containers for shipments to the US west coast from Asia, beginning on Aug 15. Surcharges of that size were expected to be introduced on June 15, according to a statement last year from the Transpacific Stabilization Agreement. The group, comprising 15 lines, has limited antitrust protection, which enables it to advise on rates and surcharges

Freight rates may rise later in the year, as US retail inventories are still low by historic standards. May stockpiles were 7% down from three years earlier. That could help cause retail container imports to jump more than 10% from 2010 in September, October and November, according to the National Retail Federation.

Retailers have pared stock levels as they“ are so fearful of getting stuck with inventory” after losses during the 2009 slump, says Barclays Capital analyst Jon Windham. “That means more people will be trying to stuff in cargo later in the year.”

Shipping lines have also cut services in a bid to boost rates. Overall, Asia-Europe capacity has been cut by 3.5% and trans-Pacific space by 3.9%, according to Um. The size of the laid-up container fleet may also surge to a capacity of about 400,000 20ft containers by year-end from 120,000, according to Alphaliner.

Still, with the overall fleet expanding as new ships enter service, that may not be enough to revive earnings, Um says. “Any hope of a re-bound in the container-shipping industry has been pretty much washed away for this year,” she says. “Demand hasn’t improved much, while capacity and fuel costs have jumped at a much faster pace.” — Bloomberg LP


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.theedgesingapore.com /No484
Publish date: 08/08/11

Fortune REIT to enhance two suburbanmalls

Fortune REIT to enhance two suburban malls;
shrugs off weak local following

Fortune REIT is embarking on asset-enhancement initiatives (AEIs) for two of its 14 suburban shopping malls in Hong Kong. Beginning in 3Q2011, City One Plaza, part of the 22-year-old flagship mall City One Shatin, will undergo renovation works, says Justina Chiu, deputy CEO of ARA Asset Management (Fortune). The works, which are expected to be completed by end-2012 and cost about HK$100 million ($15.4 million),will free up more retail space for tenants. Tired shoppers can also look forward to a bigger seating area in Central Park, the alfresco part of City One Plaza, adds Chiu

The other AEI planned is for Ma On Shan Plaza. Fortune REIT intends to downsize a Chinese restaurant in the mall, which takes up 15%, or 50,000 sq ft, of the 310,000 sq ftmall, to accommodate more retail and F&B outlets, she adds. Fortune REIT is targeting to precommit 70% of the new space before downsizing works start. Ma On Shan Plaza’s AEI is expected to be completed by year-end, according to Chiu

Analysts say the AEIs are expected to have a positive effect on Fortune REIT’s performance. In a July 22 report, Daiwa Capital Markets analyst Yann is Kuo notes that AEI at Ngan Shing Commercial Centre (NSCC) has lifted Fortune REIT’s rentals. As at June 2011, the portfolio’s average passing rent increased 10.3% y-o-y to HK$30.30 psf.

NSCC is also part of the 414,469 sq ft City One Shatin. The common corridors, ceiling and flooring at the ground floor of NSCC were upgraded, while two supermarket branches located within City One Shatin were merged into a superstore in NSCC. Renovation works were completed last September in a bid to better serve the 40,000 to 50,000 residents living in the City One residential development.

For the AEIs at City One Plaza and Ma On Shan Plaza, Chiu expects returns on investment (ROIs) of 15% to 20%. Kuo writes that execution risks for Ma On Shan Plaza should be low, as the AEI merely involves downsizing the Chinese restaurant and sub-dividing the freed-up space. In addition, more than 50% of the freed-up space has already been precommitted, she notes. “Initial results from the AEI for the NSCC appear promising and this bodes well for the results of the AEI for the remaining areas of City One Shatin as well as the AEI for Ma On Shan Plaza,” she adds.

Defensive play “Our malls are housing-estate malls andthey serve the day-to-day needs of the residents,” says Justin Chiu, chairman of ARA Asset Management, in a pre-results briefing on July 22. Chiu and his daughter Justina were in Singapore to present Fortune REIT’s 1H2011/ 2Q2011 results end-ed June 30.

Fortune REIT’s aim of serving the daily needs of Hong Kong’s middle-income families makes it a defensive play, even in bad times, says Justin Chiu. F&B outlets, supermarkets, banks, real-estate agencies and education providers are the largest lessees of retail space in the REIT’s malls. “In good times, people spend a little bit more on necessities. In bad times, when people have to stay home and cook, they go to the supermarket,” he adds.

To be sure, Hong Kong’s retail sector is thriving. According to the Hong Kong Rating and Valuation Department, retail rents in the New Territories for 1Q2011 increased 8.3% y-o-y even as the former British colony registered 7.2% GDP growth in that quarter.


For 2Q2011, Fortune REIT’s distribution per unit (DPU) increased 3.1% y-o-y to reach 6.07HK cents. Distributable income increased 3.7%y-o-y to HK$102 million, while net property income rose 8.2% y-o-y to reach HK$158.5 million. Revenues increased 11.4% y-o-y to hit HK$228 million. Fortune REIT’s management attributes the strong performance to higher occupancies and improved rental rates across the REIT’s entire portfolio.

As at June 30, 98.1% of Fortune REIT’s 1.98 million sq ft of lettable retail space was occupied, an increase of 0.3% q-o-q. At HK$30.30psf, passing rents are also at their highest for Fortune REIT’s malls since its listing, with tenant retention rate standing at over 70%, Justin Chiu says, thanks to the AEIs

Analysts’ favourite
Analysts say Fortune REIT’s latest financial results beat their 1H2011 and 2Q2011 estimates. Its 2Q2011 DPU beat Standard Chartered’s forecast by 8%, owing to a lower-than-expected write-off of debt commitment fees, say analysts Meenal Kumar and Regina Lim in a July 22 report.

Daiwa’s Kuo notes that its 1H2011 DPU climbed 4.3% y-o-y to 12.8 HK cents. “Fortune REIT’s DPU is 1.6% above our forecasts, which were already above the markets’,” she says, adding that the REIT’s revenues for 1H2011 also surpassed her estimates by 4.3%.

Kuo is keeping her “outperform” rating for the REIT, with a 2011 estimated DPU of 24.8HK cents, taking into account stronger revenues and lower interest expenses. In April, the REIT secured new loan facilities with an aggregate principal amount of HK$3.8 billion at an interest margin of 0.91% per annum over the Hong Kong Interbank Offer Rate, lower than the previous loan’s 2% per annum.

Standard Chartered also maintains its “outperform” rating on Fortune REIT, raising its price target to HK$4.37 from HK$4. Kumar and Lim note that the REIT is trading at a deep discount of 53% to its book value. Its yield is also higher than its peers’. According to Bloomberg data, Fortune REIT has an indicative yield of 6.27%,based on its closing unit price on July 28. This is higher than the yields of Singapore-listed retail REITs. CapitaMall Trust, for example, traded at an indicated yield of just 5.02%

Higher trading volumes
Fortune REIT may have been one of the first retail REITs to be listed on the Singapore Exchange, having made its debut back in August 2003, more than a year after the listing of the very first retail REIT, CapitaMall Trust. But it was not until its Hong Kong listing in February 2010 that the REIT’s trading volumes shot up.

Currently, the stock sees an average of two million units changing hands every day on both the Hong Kong and Singapore exchanges, says Justin Chiu. “In those days, when we were listed only on the SGX, on some days there was no trading at all,” Chiu adds. According to Bloomberg data, about 1.32 million units of the REIT changed hands on the HKEx on July 27, much higher than the 642,000 units traded on the SGX. Altogether, more than 1.9 million units were traded on that day.

Chiu says listing the REIT in Hong Kong by way of introduction made sense, because Hong Kong investors are more familiar with the REIT’s suburban malls


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.theedgesingapore.com /No483
Publish date: 01/08/11

Mercator to switch from contract tospot pricing as recovery stays out of sight

Mercator to switch from contract to spot pricing as recovery stays out of sight

Shalabh Mittal, CEO of Indian bulk shipper Mercator Lines, appears unperturbed and almost non chalant despite the sorry state of affairs in the global dry bulk market. Freight rates have tumbled in 2Q2011, resulting in losses for shippers across the industry, and analysts who cover the sector are not expecting rates to improve much in the months ahead.

However, Mittal has managed to keep Mercator profitable by locking in contract rates for at least two years for his fleet of ships so far. “The bulk market is quite bad now, as current spot rates aren’t even enough to cover interest, repayments and depreciation,” he tells The Edge Singapore in a recent interview. “For us, though, it’s not so bad because we have long-term contracts with our customers at much higher rates to make up for the losses we would otherwise make if we ran on spot rates.”

Indeed, hit by an oversupply of bulk carriers to transport grain and coal, rising bunker fuel prices and natural disasters that have affected demand in major port destinations such as Japan and Australia, the Baltic Dry Index — which tracks average freight rates for several classes of bulk carriers — has fallen steadily since the beginning of June, hitting 1,253 on Aug 3.

A bounce in rates will happen only later in 2H2011 on the back of strong seasonal demand in 4Q2011,says Salvatore Vitale at US-based investment house Sterne Agee. Re-building efforts after the March earth-quake and tsunami in Japan should also help lift demand for bulk carriers to transport steel, while exports of Australian coal are also expected to recover after flash floods damaged major mines and ports in the country earlier this year. Vitale cautions, however, “that any bounce-back in demand will be offset by still-high vessel supply growth”. He expects the current global fleet of 8,578 bulkcarriers to grow 13% this year versus slower demand growth of 9%.

Mercator specialises in the transportation of coal and iron ore to and from India, Indonesia, China and, more recently, Brazil. It owns and operates 13 Panamax and Kamsarmax-class bulk carriers capable of transporting at least 69,000 tonnes of cargo per voyage and charters three larger 90,000-tonne-capacity Post Panamax ships. The company also operates a 279,022-tonne Very Large Ore Carrier (VLOC), which was contracted to Brazilian mining company Vale in 2009 for the transportation of iron ore from Brazil to China under a 14-year contract worth US$209 million. Vale also operates the world’s largest VLOC can carry up to 400,000 tonnes of iron ore per voyage.

Meanwhile, Mercator has eight other ships working under contracts, including a 93,200-tonne-capacity Post Panamax ship delivered in January. That vessel, too, has been committed to a six-year charter contract at a daily hire rate of US$21,400, or US$47 million in total revenue over the charter period. Last month, spot rates for Panamax-class vessels hit a low of US$12,700, down 7.2% from the average Panamax spot rate of US$13,700 in the seasonally low April-to-June quarter.

Mercator traditionally keeps 60% of its fleet locked in under contracts to maintain revenue visibility. With freight rates at their current lows, however, Mittal says a change of strategy could be in the works if the poor rates persist into2012, when at least three of Mercator’s ships will come off their contracts. “In this market, it makes no sense to have a long-term contract because we would be locking in rates at the bottom of the market,” he says. “We would rather take the risk of running on spot than to let go of any up-side should the market improve. If the market is still the same next year, the contract coverage of our fleet will go down.” That could only lower earnings for Mercator.

For the quarter ended June 30 (Mercator has a March year-end), the shipper’s revenues were flat y-o-y at US$38 million ($46 million)and earnings fell 70% to US$3.9 million because of the lower spot rates and the renewal of long-term contracts at lower rates

Stronger demand
Still, Mittal remains confident that the current imbalance in supply and demand will eventually even out within the next 12 to 24 months. Meanwhile, he believes Mercator’s current position in the dry bulk market should be able to ride out the storm. “Demand for bulk carriers to transport coal and iron ore between the developing economies of India, China and Indonesia is still robust; you will still have business. The question is, with who and at what rate,” says Mittal.

He says Mercator is well placed among its rivals to capture some of that demand, as the company’s fleet is still young — about 60% of the vessels are aged below six. “When it comes to choosing between an older ship and a newer one, customers generally prefer newer ships,” he says. New vessels are also more environmentally friendly and require less operating expenses too.

More importantly, Mercator also owns six geared bulk carriers — ships equipped with cranes to facilitate the loading and unloading of cargo in areas that lack port facilities. The company owns the largest fleet of geared ships in India, where port infrastructure in second-and third-tier cities is lacking. “The geared Panamax market is a niche market and this gives us a competitive edge,” explains Mittal. A large proportion of the global dry bulk carrier fleet consists of gearless vessels, which must rely heavily on port infrastructure to load and unload cargo, making it impossible for larger ships to reach less well-equipped inland ports

Logistics advantage
In addition, Mercator is also in a position to offer its customers — major power plants and steel companies such as Glencore, Vale, Tata Power and Arcelor Mittal— a full logistics solution, including the transportation, loading and unloading of cargo as well as truck and rail services in India provided by the company’s parent — Mercator India. “By providing the full transport and logistics solution that ensures the cargo reaches the end-customer, we can add value by charging higher rates,” Mittal says. “It also makes for better relationships with customers, who will be more loyal to you because you can service them better.”

Currently, Mercator is serving one such contract, worth US$320 million, transporting up to3.2 million tonnes of coal a year from Indonesia to India for Tata Power, as well as another similar contract, worth US$31 million, for a Sri Lankan customer to transport 650,000 tonnes of coal a year from Indonesia to Sri Lanka.

Nevertheless, shares of Mercator are down some 28.5% since the start of the year, closing on Aug 4 at 19.3 cents apiece. At those levels, the company has a market capitalisation of $241.6 million and trades at 9.2 times earnings. Its peers in the region include Taiwan-based Courage Marine and South Korea’s STXPan Ocean— which are listed in Singapore —as well as Bangkok-based Precious Shipping and Hong Kong’s Pacific Basin

With the dry bulk market expected to hover in the lows for the rest of the year, competition for cargo among Mercator and its rivalscan only heat up — all the more reason for Mittal to stay nimble and sharp as he steers his company around the slump and, it is hoped, deliver another profitable quarter




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.theedgesingapore.com /No484
Publish date: 08/08/11

PhillipCapital Market Watch 23092011 (Weekly Market Commentary)




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube / PhillipCapital
Publish date: 23/09/11

10% tax on REIT dividends extended 5 years

The Star Online > Business
Saturday October 8, 2011

10% tax on REIT dividends extended 5 years

THE Government has extended the concessionary tax rate of 10% on dividends of non-corporate institutional and individual investors in real estate investment trusts (REITS).

The incentive, which expires on Dec 31, will be extended for five years, starting from Jan 1 next year to Dec 31, 2016.

“We are very happy with the extension as there was a lack of clarity on what would happen after the expiry,'' said Malaysian REIT Managers Association (MRMA) and Axis-REIT Managers Bhd CEO Stewart LaBrooy.

“Earlier, there were concerns as no announcements were made while the date of expiry was drawing close. Now that it has been extended, we can go back to business as usual.”

Mah Sing Group Bhd managing director Tan Sri Leong Hoy Kum said this would promote domestic participation and attract foreign investors.

Labrooy added that the REIT industry had developed very well over the last few years. The upcoming REIT to watch out is that of Pavilion Kuala Lumpur which should add further liquidity to the market.

Pavilion Kuala Lumpur is slated to be Malaysia's largest initial public offering for a REIT. It is likely to be valued at a yield of 7%. Details are still sketchy at this point, but sources said its assets could be worth between RM4bil and RM5bil.

Meanwhile, individual and institutional investors in Singapore and Hong Kong do not pay withholding tax on their REIT investments.

Both local and foreign retail as well as institutional investors in Malaysia now have to pay a 10% withholding tax, which had already been reduced from the 25% tax rate previously.

The withholding tax rate in Malaysia has not been adjusted since 2008.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: The Star Online
Publish date: 08/10/11

Emerging markets: A silver lining amid the haze?

Emerging markets: A silver lining amid the haze?
by Imran Khan
04:46 AM Oct 08, 2011
Looking out my window at the hazy sky as I pen this article, I cannot help but feel that the recent haze in Singapore mirrors the doom and gloom surrounding developed countries, now in a quandary from having too much debt and too little economic growth.

Competitiveness in these countries has dwindled over the years. The bastion of global growth has now been taken over by the emerging economies. These countries have a younger and hungrier population and, in many cases, are blessed with natural resources and cheaper labour. Not only are these emerging economies a source of global manufacturing and resources, they are also a source of demand in their own right. A prime example is China, the world's factory, which also has a strong demand for raw materials.

It is not only the abundance of manpower and raw materials that are driving these economies. Over the last few years, there has been a slow but steady shift to services as well. New financial hubs in Asia have emerged from the ashes of the financial meltdown in the West as new centres for capital reallocation. The labour force has also become more skilled and sophisticated - just take a look at the number of "emerging economy" students pursuing advanced tertiary degrees in developed markets.

It used to be the case that people from Asia would look for opportunities to migrate to the West for a "better life" - but strangely enough the children of these migrant families are now looking to Asia for employment opportunities. I remember reading an article late last year which showed that the highest-paid investment bankers were from Sao Paulo, and not from New York or London.

What is clearly happening is a shift of financial powers from the West to emerging economies. With the benefit of hindsight, I think the Asian financial crisis was a blessing in disguise - albeit a very tough lesson. Since the crisis, policymakers have reduced debt levels, built up reserves and reduced the reliance on foreign capital. Local capital markets were developed and many emerging economies in Asia and Latin America now have deep and active local capital markets that domestic companies and governments can tap into.

Therefore, should global growth slow down, and I believe it will, emerging-market policymakers are now in a position to better manage it. They can expand fiscal policy to increase spending and lower interest rates to reduce the cost of borrowing. The same cannot be said of developed economies whose interest rates are already low or zero and fiscal situation is dire. The only emerging market region where there is more risk is Eastern Europe, where debt levels are higher and monetary policy has tightened.



Opportunities in emerging markets

Analysed from a different viewpoint, in an environment with zero interest rates, capital will eventually be put back to work and, so, where else better than the emerging market economies? As we speak today, inflows into emerging market bond funds have remained positive.

But wait, will the emerging market economies not get hit too if the situation in developed markets gets worse? My short answer to this question is a definite "yes". Emerging-market growth will slow but is still likely to perform markedly better than the developed markets for the reasons I mentioned above.

That said, in the short term, because of the market uncertainty over the developed markets, the spillover effects will render performance of emerging market assets more difficult to predict. After all, they are, by nature, a risk asset. Therefore, in times of distress and risk aversion, they will likely underperform and we have already seen underperformance in some segments of emerging-market assets, mainly foreign exchange, high yield and risk corporate bonds.

My own strategy for navigating my clients' monies through the current haze is to steer investments to longer-duration, better-quality sovereign and quasi-sovereign debt. Investors are likely to invest in such products in the event of more bad news coming out. I have also reduced corporate and high yield exposure as well as keep some cash as "ammunition".

When the haze will clear for developed countries is anyone's guess. But emerging-market assets may provide a silver lining for investors who are looking for buying opportunities to counter the anaemic deposit rates and to take advantage of the recent correction in emerging-market assets.



Imran Khan is a fund manager at United Emerging Markets Bond Fund, UOB

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: TODAYonline
Publish date:08/10/11

防雙底衰退‧歐洲推逾5千億量寬

防雙底衰退‧歐洲推逾5千億量寬
Created 10/07/2011 - 19:00

(德國‧柏林7日訊)基於歐債危機惡化、歐洲經濟向下的風險升高,政府難以拿出有效措施,歐洲兩大中行--歐洲中行和英格蘭銀行決定推出總規模超過5千億令吉的新一輪量化寬鬆措施;一方面壓制蠢蠢欲動的流動性危機,同時也為疲軟的經濟復甦再打一劑強心針。

歐洲中行昨日宣佈以400億歐元(約1千697億令吉)上限購買歐洲銀行業發行的債券,同時重啟對銀行提供1年期不限額度的再融資操作,英格蘭銀行同日宣佈推出規模750億英鎊(約3千662億令吉)的第二輪量化寬鬆(QE2),兩項措施總規模達5千359億令吉。

兩家中行同日召開貨幣決策會議,都決定維持利率,前者保持1.5%,後者凍結在0.5%的歷史低檔。

歐洲中行總裁特里榭表示:“經濟前景不確定性極高,向下風險加劇。通膨雖然居高不下,未來幾個月可能會高於2%,但過後應會下滑。”

因應歐債惡化,市場信用緊縮加劇,特里榭還表示,他們將無限量地向銀行提供流動性,直到明年7月。特里榭宣佈歐洲中行將重啟上次全球金融危機所採取特別措施,包括購買區內銀行發行的公債與對銀行提供1年期無限量的貸款。

歐洲中行資產購買的上限為400億歐元,下月起進場,計劃為期12個月。長天期的再融資操作額度無上限,共分2次執行,10月提供銀行1年期的貸款,12月則操作13個月期的貸款。

英格蘭銀行為了讓經濟復甦,也決定再推出新一輪資產購買計劃,相較於QE1規模達2千億英鎊,此次資產購買規模減至750億英鎊,總規模仍達2千750億英鎊。

全球中行正在弱化抗通膨的立場,或者重新啟動保持金融系統流動性的措施,以免經濟增速放緩惡化為全面衰退。聯儲局已經連續兩個月放鬆貨幣政策,而大馬和韓國暫停升息,將注意力從遏制物價上漲轉向維持經濟成長。

渣打銀行駐倫敦的首席經濟學家里昂斯(Gerard Lyons)說:“全球中行貨幣政策最近都有所調整,歐美中行邁向寬鬆貨幣政策,新興市場的中行暫停緊縮,不排除在必要的時候放鬆政策。”

澳洲儲備銀行週二(4日)暗示,隨著通膨放緩,在發達經濟體中,該中行在必要的時候有降息的空間。土耳其和俄羅斯中行本週加大出售外匯存底的力度。

特里榭月底“畢業”
市場關注歐債收尾

歐洲中行總裁特里榭的8年任期將於本月底屆滿,6日是他最後一次主持利率決策會議。特里榭是公認的危機管理者,但他最終的歷史地位將取決於歐債危機如何收尾。

特里榭卸任後將由意大利中行總裁德拉吉(Mario Draghi)接棒。

68歲的特里榭曾任法國中行總裁,在歐元的創立扮演關鍵角色。歐洲中行可說是第一個意識到次級房貸危機嚴重性的主要中行,這為特里榭贏得讚譽。歐洲中行2007年即對歐元區銀行體系挹注大量流動性,同時把中行的特別操作和貨幣政策嚴格區分開來。

隨著主權債務危機惡化,特里榭似乎把權限發揮到極限。他在2010年5月克服德國及其他歐洲北方盟國的反對,開始在次級市場收購周邊問題國家的政府債券,以阻止危機擴散。

此舉引發德國央行官員強烈批評,導致當時最被看好可望接替特里榭的德國中行總裁韋伯(Axel Weber)辭職。

批評者說,收購債券損及歐洲中行的獨立,中行事實上是在壓低政府的借款利率。特里榭堅持這麼做是配合貨幣政策,中行介入失常的市場是為了確保貨幣政策措施能完全影響經濟體系。

許多經濟學家表示,由於歐洲官員無法或不願採取大膽措施來阻止債務危機擴散,歐洲央行別無選擇、不得不介入。

商業銀行的舒伯特說,收購債券計劃使中行的獨立受到質疑,但只有時間能證明此舉是否合理。

要是歐洲政府能控制預算、更緊密的協調,並為歐元建立更堅實的基礎,歷史會證明特里榭的決定是對的。

但要是遏止危機的行動不成功,並造成混亂的違約,歐洲中行將因把其資產負債表置於險境而大受抨擊。



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 星洲日報
Publish date: 07/10/11

Real property gains tax: Gradual impact

Real property gains tax: Gradual impact
By Vasantha Ganesan
vasantha@nstp.com.my
2011/10/08





The existing rate is not effective in curbing speculation and could jeopardise the ability of the low- and middle-income groups to buy houses, says Najib
Kuala Lumpur: The impact from the real property gains tax (RPGT) hike, a move to curb speculation in the property market, will be gradual.

RPGT is a tax on properties sold less than five years after they are bought. Only the profit from the sale of a property is subject to RPGT.

It has been doubled to 10 per cent for the first two years and will remain at the previous level of 5 per cent in the third, fourth and fifth year. There will be no tax on gains after the fifth year.

RPGT exemption on a residential property is given to both husband and wife on one residential property each, once in a lifetime.

Yesterday, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak in his 2012 Budget speech said that the existing rate of 5 per cent is not effective in curbing speculative activities and could jeopardise the ability of the low- and middle-income groups to buy houses.

These changes, he said, are low enough not to affect genuine property owners and will curb speculative activities.

Chairman of the Property Management, Valuation and Estate Agency Division of the Royal Institution of Surveyors Malaysia Adzman Shah Mohd Ariffin said that the move will deter future sales of property within two years of purchase. With prices stabilising and should they sell fast, they will not be able to make a killing.

"But, for those who bought a property three years ago, the price appreciation would have been much higher than the 10 per cent RPGT imposed," Adzman said, adding that this category of buyers will continue to make a profit.

According to him, properties can appreciate by 20 per cent or more once completed.

Real Estate and Housing Developers' Association Malaysia president Datuk Seri Michael Yam welcomed the move.

"The fact that there is no drastic change to the ruling on RPGT encourages long-term ownership of property which also helps the owner with capital appreciation and wealth creation as they will hold on to the property longer," said Yam.

He added that the first two years are effectively a 100 per cent increase, thus it will help discourage short-term speculation.

"It is a gentle/soft landing which will avoid a dip in the supply and demand of property," Yam told Business Times.

"The increase in this instance is not unreasonable, given that there are no speculative activities in the entire country but only confined to pockets of urban areas like Kuala Lumpur and Penang. These pockets of activities are insignificant compared with the total supply and demand for housing in Malaysia," he added.

However, real estate agent Rahim & Co's managing director Robert Ang said the 10 per cent increase is not an effective measure to try and curb speculation activities.

"If you want to curb speculation, why not something higher?" he said.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.btimes.com.my
Publish date:08/10/11

Tax breaks will speed up KLIFD

Tax breaks will speed up KLIFD


2011/10/08


KUALA LUMPUR: Granting tax breaks to companies participating in the Kuala Lumpur International Financial District (KLIFD) may help quicken its development, analysts and industry observers said.

Under the 2012 Budget, KLIFD Status companies will be granted a 100 per cent income tax exemption for 10 years, and stamp duty exemption on loan and service agreements.

Local and foreign companies with KLIFD Marquee Status will get an industrial building allowance and accelerated capital allowance.

"You need the banking institutions to come in, but there seemed to be no particular advantage to them setting up big there, so the tax breaks now may help. Certainly, some institutions, especially new ones that come to Malaysia, may decide to locate there," said Pong Teng Siew, head of research at Jupiter Securities.

The KLIFD, one of Malaysia's biggest projects, is essentially a financial district within a park, located on 30.3ha of land in the Imbi area, fronting Jalan Tun Razak here. It's expected to be a 15-to-20-year project with a gross development value of about RM26 billion.

The government also announced a 70 per cent income tax exemption for five years for KLIFD developers.

"These incentives ... are necessary sweeteners, a first step towards bringing the best talent and infrastructure to the financial district," 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB), the master developer of the project, said in a statement yesterday.

It said KLIFD Status incentives would be offered to new foreign entrants of priority sub-sectors.

Raymond Choong, president and chief executive officer of Hong Leong Financial Group, felt that the incentive package would help accelerate the KLIFD's development, springboard Malaysia even higher in the Islamic financial markets and help spearhead the country's position as a competitive and leading financial hub in the region.

Meanwhile, analysts said the upcoming Treasury Management Centre (TMC) would likely be located within the KLFID. The government mooted the setting up of the TMC in the budget, as part of a plan to attract multinational companies to establish their treasury management services in Malaysia.

"It will take time for them to come. It could attract a few, but it may not bring many," said Pong, who thinks there could be two obstacles to the plan - one, that Malaysia still imposed some restrictions in the foreign exchange market, and two, that the country may need more big, international financial institutions here.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.btimes.com.my
Publish date:08/10/11

Friday, October 7, 2011

2011-1003-57金錢爆(亞股土石流警戒)



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date: 03/10/11

2012年財政預算案‧

2012財政預算案‧月薪5千以下‧僱主繳13%公積金‧月入3千家庭獲500


(吉隆坡7日訊)首相兼財政部長拿督斯里納吉今日在國會提呈主題為“國家轉型政策:照顧人民及維護國家和諧”的2012年財政預算案。


以下是部份預算案內容:
(1)中小學生每人獲100
――全國每名小學生及中一至中五的中學生每人可獲得100令吉的求學援助金。

――在國立和私立大專、預科班及中六學生求學的大馬學生可獲得每人200令吉的購書禮券。

――取消小學24令吉50仙及中學33令吉50仙的附加費。

――10億令吉的興建、提昇及維修特別基金。

――個人、公司或膜拜團體捐款給學校可獲得扣稅。

――私立學校海外促銷活動可享雙重扣稅;所有教學配備也豁免入口稅和銷售稅。

(2)僱主公積金繳額提高1%
――僱主為月入5千令吉或以下的員工繳納的公積金,從現有12%提高到13%。

(3)遲退稅可獲賠2%
――如果內陸稅收局遲退稅,須賠償納稅人退稅款額的2%,於2013估稅年開始生效。

――所得稅內的私人退休基金和年金保費的可回扣頂額是3千令吉,公積金和人壽保費則是6千令吉。

――為了鼓勵納稅人使用電子報稅,預算案建議通過手機報稅和退稅,從2012估稅年開始生效。

(4)家庭月入不滿3000獲500
――月入3千令吉及以下的家庭,將獲得500令吉的現金援助;不過,一家之主必須先向內陸稅收局登記。

(5)產業2年內脫售‧盈利稅10%

――脫售少過2年的產業,須繳交10%的產業盈利稅,比過去的5%增加一倍,而脫售2年至5年的產業征收5%盈利稅;5年以上的產業則免繳盈利稅。

――購買第一間35萬令吉房屋,貸款合約印花稅獲50%折扣(合約需在2011年1月1日至2012年12月31日之間執行);購買一個大馬房屋計劃下30萬令吉為頂限的房屋,貸款合約豁免印花稅。

(6)公務員增半個月花紅或最低500

――公務員調薪7%至13%,即80令吉至320令吉。

――超過60萬退休公務員,將獲得退休金調整,總值6億令吉;從2013年起,每年獲2%調整。

――公務員增加半個月花紅或最低500令吉。

(7)政府醫院門診‧樂齡免費

――樂齡門診病人在政府醫院和診所可獲免費醫療服務。

――樂齡人士使用輕快鐵和單軌火車服務,一律折扣50%。

(8)公務員退休年齡延長至60歲
――退休年齡從58歲提高到60歲。

(9)國會議員津貼調整

――政府將調整國會議員現有的津貼和福利,條件是所有朝野議員都同意這項建議;若通過,將在明年1月1日起生效。

(10)購買國產新德士全免稅
――購買本地製造簇新德士者,可100%豁免國產稅和銷售稅。

――7年以上車齡德士的買賣和轉手,豁免國產稅和銷售稅。

――購買國產車充作德士可獲2%利息津貼。

――更換舊德士者獲援助,即7至10年車齡獲3千令吉,10年以上獲1千令吉。

――廢除私人擁有的廉價德士的路稅。


2012年財政預算案‧目前5%難管制“炒樓”‧2年內脫售產業盈利稅10%
Created 10/07/2011 - 20:34

(吉隆坡7日訊)從明年1月1日起,任何人購買產業後的2年內脫售,須繳10%的產業盈利稅,目前是5%。

至於在2年至5年內脫售的產業盈利稅維持在5%;5年以上的產業則免繳盈利稅。

在2012年財政預算案中,原本被征收不同稅額的組別,包括公民、永久居民、公司及外國人,都劃一稅收額。

為了振興低靡的產業市場,政府從2007年4月1日起至2009年12月31日,取消原本高達30%的盈利稅,並降至5%;但是,政府認為5%的盈利稅,並無法管制“炒樓”等投機活動,並將對房地產業帶來壓力。

為了確保中低收入階層有能力,以合理的價格購買房地產,因此建議調升2年以下的產業盈利稅。



2012年財政預算案‧“我的首間房屋”調高至40萬‧夫妻可聯名貸款購買

(吉隆坡7日訊)首相納吉說,政府建議把“我的第一間房屋計劃”下的屋價頂額,從現有22萬令吉調高至40萬令吉。

他說,在調整後,購買者可以夫妻聯名方式貸款購買第一間房屋。

政府土地建“一個大馬房屋”

他表示,為了實現居者有其屋,政府也成立“一個馬來西亞人民房屋”(PR1MA),以發展及管理可負擔房屋,尤其中等收入一群。該機構將負責在政府土地興建這些房屋。

“因此,政府建議在新街場及雙溪毛糯一帶的政府土地興建這類房屋單位。同時已鑑定在這些地區的附近興建輕快鐵、捷運或公共交通。”

納吉說,當局也將在明年於賽城、布特拉高原、芙蓉、白沙羅及武吉拉惹興建7千700個房屋單位。這些房屋價格將比市價低。例如,一間坐落在布城約1千平方尺的公寓,只售賣15萬令吉,比市場上的22萬令吉來得低。

在這計劃下,購屋者可享有豁免買賣合約印花稅的優惠。

鼓勵先建後售

納吉說,為了減低擱置房屋或延遲完工的風險,政府鼓勵更多先建後售的房屋計劃。因此,伊斯蘭銀行同意提供伊斯蘭貸款便利及承擔興建風險,購屋者只需在房屋完工後才攤還房貸。這項計劃是概括60萬令吉及以下的房屋。

他說,政府將持續人民房屋計劃(PPR),在第十大馬計劃下興建超過7萬5千間廉價屋單位。明年,政府也會撥款4億4千300萬令吉來興建約8千間可出租人民房屋單位及逾7千間可出售的人民房屋單位。

撥2億建1萬間親民房屋

提到國家房屋公司負責的“親民房屋計劃”,他說,這項計劃是協助低收入者;在這計劃下,任何有土地但沒有房屋或居住在老房子的人士,可獲得融資興建本身的房屋。

他指出,該公司將在明年額外撥款,興建1萬間親民房屋單位。這些房屋的成本為6萬5千令吉,但政府會為每一戶家庭提供2萬令吉的津貼,而以4萬5千令吉價格出售。這項計劃的總撥款額達2億令吉。

助82擱置房屋計劃復工

在擱置房屋計劃下,納吉說,政府已協助82項涉及超過1萬5千個單位的擱置房屋計劃復工及獲得入伙紙。政府將在明年撥款6千300萬令吉,以協助1千270個擱置房屋復工,以及撥款4千萬令吉維修政府與私人廉價屋。

他說,在我國工作的外國專才已提高至4萬1千人,而政府將允許這批外籍員工可享有跟本地人的便利,提取公積金來繳付房屋貸款。

他表示,在體恤漁民沒有穩定收入下,政府將成立一個3億令吉的漁民房屋特別基金,以協助興建及維修他們的房屋。


2012財政預算案‧100個重點

●推動投資:

1.開放17個服務業副領域

2.落實總值984億令吉的第二轉型藍圖

3.推動價值5千萬令吉以上的新計劃

4.公共與私人界(PPP)聯合管理25億令吉的“便利基金”(Dana Mudahcara)

5.發展價值9億780萬令吉的5個區域走廊(Wilayah Koridor)

6.60億令吉的特別振興配套

●刺激中小型企業:

7.總值20億令吉符合伊斯蘭法的中小型企業承擔基金――政府將承擔2%利潤

8.總值5億令吉,符合伊斯蘭法的中小型企業創新基金――政府將承擔2%的利潤

9.總值1億令吉的中小型企業重整基金(SME Revitalisation Fund),讓有關企業家重新發展生意

10.總值1千萬令吉的中小型企業緊急基金,以援助受天然災難影響的中小型企業

●激發創意及創新:
(2012年-啟動創新的年份)

11.在學校及國立高等學府推行“滲透及發展創新計劃”

12.開發創新計劃以激發年輕人的新創意

13.推介1個馬來西亞發明獎勵

14.在媒體推行真實與紀錄片計劃

15.準備3千萬令吉的市場測試基金

16.商業化300項新智慧產權的產品或新科技,國民總收入預計300億令吉

17.舉辦全球創新論壇及亞洲經濟天使論壇。

●教育:

18.10億令吉的興建、提昇及維修特別基金

19.取消小學24令吉50仙及中學33令吉50仙的附加費

20.全國每名小學生,中一至中五的中學生每人可獲得100令吉的求學援助

21.在高等學府、預科班及中六學生求學的大馬學生可獲得每人200令吉的購書禮券

22.個人或公司捐助學校活動可獲得扣稅

●郊區轉型計劃:

23.推行10億令吉的郊區轉型計劃

24.成立郊區轉型中心作為服務交流中心,特別是在吉打、柔佛、沙巴及沙拉越。

25.設立1億令吉的專業服務基金讓專業群體借貸,利息為4%

26.在11個農業計劃地區實行1億1千100萬令吉的郊區大型提昇計劃

27.發展郊區的基本設施,包括水電供應、住家及道路,價值50億令吉

28.價值5億令吉的公共基本維修計劃

29.在沙巴及砂拉越實行水供分配計劃,以及水供系統設施,同時在園坵進行乾淨水供設施(價值5千萬令吉以銜接水管及給予家庭水費)

30.使銀行服務普及,遴選5千個國家銀行代理

31.郊區巴士服務

32.原住民福利―發展及遷移計劃

公務員調薪7至13%

●公共服務領域:

33.成立退出政策(Dasar pemisah/exit policy)

34.改善公務員的薪金架構:調薪7至13%、根據等級調高公務員的年薪,調幅從80令吉至320令吉

35.根據年資來提昇公務員計劃:等級48的老師-SSM(服務20年以上)、SBPA(16年以上)

36.提高退休年齡,從58歲提高至60歲

37.增加半個月的花紅或500令吉

38.提供進修援助,學士(2萬個)、碩士(5千個)及博士(500個)

39.士兵照顧計劃——提昇及維修軍營

●退休公務員者前合約公務員:

40.退休的政府公務員:享有退休金調整、落實每年調整2%退休金

41.給予3千令吉特別費用予在特別事務局及社會發展局的合約職員

42.支付3千令吉特別費用予曾經在緊急狀態保護國家安全的退伍警員或輔警、他們的遺孀或鰥夫

43.讓退休軍人參與特別培訓計劃,以便投身商界

●應付通膨及抒緩人民生活壓力:

44.月入3千令吉及以下的家庭,將獲得500令吉的現金援助

45.持續提供總額332億令吉的補貼、獎掖和援助

46.持續為低收入家庭提供20令吉的電費補貼

47.增建一個大馬商店,以為消費人提供比市價便宜40%的物品

48.在全國開設30間人民農產品市場

49.促銷一個大馬人民菜單

50.擴大園坵合約計劃範圍,讓4千500家農戶受惠

51.提供一個大馬人民福利計劃(KAR1SMA)

●人民房屋計劃:

52.“我的首間房屋計劃”――將提高夫婦貸款頂額,由22萬令吉增至40萬令吉

53.一個大馬人民房屋計劃(PR1MA)擴大範圍至巴生河流域以外的地方,有1千880個單位

54.通過伊斯蘭貸款條規,可借貸不超過60萬令吉購買先建後售房屋

55.在全國興建1萬5千個單位的人民房屋計劃

56.政府津貼一萬個單位的人民親善房屋計劃(Program Rumah Mesra),每間2萬令吉

57.漁民房屋特別基金將為漁民提供更舒適和居住條件更好的房屋

●認同樂齡人士的貢獻:

58.樂齡門診病人都能在所有政府醫院、診療所,包括“一個大馬診所”和牙科單位,獲得免費醫療服務

59.樂齡者使用輕快鐵和單軌火車服務,一律折扣50%

●優質醫療服務:

60.興建醫院,81所診療所,50間一個大馬診所

61.提昇布城醫院婦產部,以及吉隆坡中央醫院的水平

62.為醫護人員提供更彈性的工作時間表,提高夜班急召津貼,從現有的30令吉增至80令吉

●一個大馬人民信託計劃:

63.推行一個大馬人民信託計劃(SARA 1 Malaysia),預料有10萬個月入低過3千令吉的家庭受惠。這項投資提供具吸引力的回酬保證。

●提昇土著社會:

64.提供3億令吉的土著便利基金

65.引導1千100家有潛能的土著公司

66.鄉村發展及區域部將推動土著企業和承包商發展計劃

●減輕廉價德士業者和出租車負擔:

67.購買本地製造新德士者,可豁免100%國內稅和銷售稅

68.7年以上車齡德士的買賣和轉手,豁免退回國內稅和銷售稅

69.廢除私人擁有的廉價德士的路稅

70.購買本地製造的新德士可獲2%利息津貼

71.更換舊德士者獲援助——7至10年獲3千令吉,10年以上獲1千援助

72.廉價德士業者整體受惠額是7千560令吉

●全國法律援助資金:

73.為無能力付還高昂的律師費者提供免費的法律援助

●收留中心:

74.提供稱為ANJUNG SINGGAH的社會援助服務中心,為居無定所者提供臨時的保護

●認同和發揚婦女的角色:

75.提供適當的培訓計劃,吸引專業婦女重返職場

76.免費提供人乳頭瘤病毒(HPV)的疫苗注射服務——5千萬令吉

77.大馬計劃信託基金(AIM)將為企業家提供21億令吉的種族微型貸款

78.興建吉隆坡婦女和兒童醫院

●青年是未來的推動力:

79.政府成立My Creative Venture Capital風險投資公司,是鼓勵更多年輕人加入創意工業行列的公司。

80.一個大馬青年行動策略(SAY 1 Malaysia)。

81.全國增建150個室內足球場,以實現“一個地區,一個球場”的目標。

82.30個仿造草草場將設立泛光燈。

●提早為朝聖作登記:

83.允許通過公積金第二戶口款項提早進行朝聖登記。

稅務獎掖

●銀行、金融和投資領域:

84.為了吸引投資者選擇大馬為財務管理服務公司首要據點,投資者獲70%所得稅豁免,為期5年

85.繳付貸款利息可豁免預繳稅

86.貸款合約和服務合約豁免印花稅

87.發展吉隆坡國際金融中心享有的稅務獎掖配套,將包括所得稅全免,為期10年

88.擁有吉隆坡國際金融中心地位的公司,將獲貸款和服務合約豁免印花稅

89.從2012年開始發行伊斯蘭債券代理費可獲扣稅長達3年

90.非令吉伊斯蘭債券發行及交易所享有的豁免所得稅優惠,將延長3年

91.非企業和個人投資者在產業投資信託所作的投資所享有的10%特許經營稅收將延長5年

92.特許經營權經營者所承擔的特許經營權費用將獲得扣

93.特許經營權持有者進口油電混合車所享有的入口和國內稅豁免,將延長至2013年

●酒店業:

94.在半島投資建設全新的四星和五星級酒店,70%的收入可獲免稅,或60%的投資稅津貼,為期5年

●稅務津貼:

95.重新檢討產業盈利稅率(RPGT),以制止房地產的投機情況

96.豁免設計服務業高達70%的所得稅,長達5年

97.私立學校將享有稅務津貼,例如豁免高達70%盈利稅,或在5年內享有100%的資本開銷的稅務津貼

98.捐款予中小學,如國民中小學、國民型中小學、宗教學校或已註冊的宗教場所,將可獲得減稅

99.政府將為私人公司提供稅務優惠,以便讓私人公司強化高技能的人力資本發展,私人界給予實習生的津貼將享有2次的稅務回扣

100.私人界公積金及保險年金將享有稅務獎掖




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 星洲日報
Publish date:07/10/11

Budget 2012: Highlights

Budget 2012: Highlights


2011/10/07


* One off cash assistance of RM500 to all households with a monthly income of RM3,000 and below, costing RM1.8 billion to benefit 3.4 million households.

* One off RM100 aid for each school pupil aged 6 to 16.

* One off RM200 cash voucher for all Malaysian school pupils and higher learning institution students

* Ceiling for house prices under a government deposit guarantee scheme for first time house buyers to be raised to RM400,000 from RM200,000.

* Civil service salary hikes of between 7 and 13 percent.

* Additional bonus of half-month salary with a minimum payment of RM500 for civil servants and an assistance of RM500 for government pensioners, to be paid together with December 2011 salary.

* A RM443 million fund to build 15,000 units of housing for lower to middle income earners.

* Increase in the rate of automatic annual increments in civil service salaries of between RM80 and RM320.

* Civil service pensions to be raised, involving a RM600 million allocation.

* RM120 million to offer 5,000 Masters and 500 doctoral scholarships for eligible civil servants, including teachers.

* The government will offer 20,000 places for diploma teachers to pursue undergraduate studies.

* A special one-off payment of RM3,000 to 4,300 individuals who have completed their contracts with the Department of Special Affairs (JASA) and Social Development Department (KEMAS).

* RM442 million for the development expenditure of the Royal Malaysia Police, including for police housing quarters, purchase of communication and technical equipment as well as upgrading of headquarters, stations and training centres.

* RM500 million to upgrade and maintain army camps and quarters nationwide under the Army Care programme.

* RM50 million for the introduction of a special programme to enable army personnel who retired with less than 21 years of service and are not eligible for pension, to venture into businesses and obtain jobs in the public and private sectors.

* A one-off payment of RM3,000 to each ex-member as well as widows and widowers of special constable and auxiliary police who served in protecting the country during the emergency era.

* Build 85 government subsidised discount grocery stores nationwide.

* To review real property gains tax to curb speculation.

* To extend import and excise duty exemption on hybrid and electric cars until end-2013.

* Malaysia to establish RM2.6 billion worth of funds for small and medium enterprises (SME).

* Malaysian state-run planter FELDA to list its global arm by mid 2012: “The listing will create another blue-chip plantation company besides attracting international investors to Bursa Malaysia. The rights and interests of the FELDA settlers will continue to be protected by Koperasi Permodalan FELDA.
FELDA are expected to receive a windfall with amount to be announced before listing.

* To extend tax exemption on issuance and trading on foreign currency sukuk by three years

* To cut tax for three years on expenses incurred in issuance of sukuk wakala starting 2012.

* To implement RM6 billion private sector financed special stimulus package for infrastructure works.

* To allow 100 percent foreign ownership of 17 service subsectors including healthcare and logistics.

* To implement RM98.4 billion rolling plan until 2013 for high impact development projects

* To grant tax benefits to investors who use Malaysian Treasury Management Centre to accelerate financial markets development. These include income tax exemption of 70 percent for five years, withholding tax exemption on interest payments on borrowing and stamp duty exemption on loan and service agreements.

* To implement RM98.4 billion rolling plan until 2013 for high impact development projects

* To grant tax benefits to investors who use Malaysian Treasury Management Centre to accelerate financial markets development. -- Reuters

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.btimes.com.my
Publish date: 07/10/11

Volatile times for Asean stocks

Business Times - 07 Oct 2011


Volatile times for Asean stocks

By MICHELLE TAN

THE Asean equity landscape seems set for mercurial times in the next two quarters, according to a Morgan Stanley report.

In fact, the trend seems to have already set in with large intra-day swings in stock prices becoming increasingly common of late.

More worryingly, Asean equity markets are stuck in a precarious predicament as contagion fears continue to sweep through the region, turning investor sentiment from one of gloom to doom.

So far, the US-based investment firm maintains a negative view on Singapore, a neutral take on Thailand and a positive stance on Indonesia, and advises investors to 'sell Singapore on risk-on rallies' and 'buy Indonesia during risk-off selldowns'.

But Morgan Stanley cautioned that 'it will not take much in the form of additional shocks to tip the balance' from here.

Highlighting that house forecasts already show the US and euro region hovering 'dangerously close to a recession', Morgan Stanley analyst Hozefa Topiwalla said: 'Asean markets are likely to continue to be driven by volatility in the developed markets over the next couple of quarters.'

In the Asean, many have taken a beating since the onset of the year, but some have been hammered down harder than others and start to look increasingly attractive on valuation grounds.

Taking a look at the Singapore market, current valuations of stocks such as Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Marine, Sembcorp Industries and DBS Group are believed to have already factored in a bear scenario, said Morgan Stanley.

Notably, such stocks are expected to reflect attractive forecast dividend yields in 2012 and have valuations trading at close to or below that recorded during the global financial crisis back in 2008, making them enticing investment options.

On the flip side, stocks such as Amtek Engineering, Wing Tai Holdings, Tiger Airways and Singapore Airlines are expected to see 'significant' earnings downgrades for 2012 should a bear scenario take centrestage.

With defensive plays continuing to dominate, it was also no surprise that real estate investment trusts such as CDL Hospitality Trusts, Ascott Residence Trust, Mapletree Logistics Trust and Suntec Real Estate Investment Trust were noted by Morgan Stanley to be potentially high yielding investment options based on forecast 2012 dividends in the event of a bearish turn of events.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date: 07/10/11

Tiger needs to get its act in order

Business Times - 07 Oct 2011


Tiger needs to get its act in order

By VEN SREENIVASAN

THE wounded Tiger took another bruising to its reputation last week after the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission put it on the mat for alleged inaccuracies in marketing email messages to its Australian customers. It is also facing queries from the Civil Aeronautics Board of the Philippines following questions raised by an unnamed complainant about potential safety issues following the recent unprecedented suspension of Tiger Australia.

Tiger's CEO Chin Yau Seng says the airline will correct the erroneous message in Australia, but will apply to dismiss the complaint in the Philippines. The latest issues come just weeks after Thai Airways said it was dumping the proposed joint venture with Tiger to set up a new Bangkok-based budget carrier.

By any measure, 2011 has turned out to be Tiger's annus horribilis. Its six-week suspension in Australia cost it over $12 million, adding to the $32 million operating losses it has racked up since April 2010. It warned last week of markedly higher Q2 losses to end-September, after posting a loss of $20.6 million in the previous quarter. Its passenger numbers have fallen through July and August, and load factors are down to 76 per cent.

Tiger is wounded, but not mortally so. After resuming services on Aug 12 in Australia with just 18 flights a day limited to the Sydney-Melbourne sector, the airline has managed to boost operations to 22 flights serving Melbourne, Sydney, Perth, Brisbane and Gold Coast. Mr Chin and his new CEO in Australia, former Air New Zealand veteran Andrew David, are planning to ramp up services for the traditional year-end southern summer peak season. While they may not get it back to the pre-suspension 60-flights-a-day schedule, getting halfway there would be a good result. Hopefully, the Australian regulators will not throw more spanners in the works for Tiger's recovery plans. Given the recent history of Australian aviation, observers would not have missed noticing the kind of treatment that Tiger attracted - something reserved for upstarts which dare challenge the dominance of Qantas on its own turf.

In a nation where the 'flying kangaroo' has pride of place in the national psyche as the 'Spirit of Australia', newcomers - especially of the budget variety - will always have it tough. That said, Tiger has to get its act in order. The problem for Tiger was not growth potential or strategic vision but rather management and execution. Company insiders say former CEO Tony Davis was so focused on growing the business and keeping costs down that he took the eye off the ball when it came to management and communication.

The mutiny by pilots, sudden departures of its managing directors in Singapore and Australia, and lack of communication with customers were symptoms of inherent management weaknesses. The ground turned even more sour when Singaporean and Australian managers in the two respective countries were replaced largely by Mr Davis' ex-colleagues from BMI Baby in Britain. When Australia's Civil Aviation Safety Authority called on Tiger to ensure it employed 'suitably qualified people (to) fill management and operational positions', it was seen as a subtle message addressing the so-called 'Brit invasion' issue. Also, the single-minded pursuit of low costs and low ticket prices gave regulators and observers in Australia the impression Tiger was cutting corners with safety.

Operating out of relatively high-cost locations such as Singapore and Australia, Tiger should instead have been actively managing yields. In any case AirAsia, with its lower-cost operating bases in Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia, will always be able to beat Tiger on ticket pricing. The third issue is service quality. Local travel folklore is full of tales about Tiger's passengers being left stranded at airports with no warning or staff in attendance.

These are all issues Mr Chin and his team will have to address, and quickly. But Tiger does have many things going for it. It still has a 32.5 per cent stake in a new joint venture low-cost operation with the Philippines' SEAir and has signed up for a 33 per cent stake in Indonesia's Mandala.

Singapore Airlines' (SIA) decision to significantly increase its stakeholding and interest in Tiger (by taking up the lion's share of the 373 million rights shares) is good news for shareholders and the company. Besides offering management expertise (ex-SilkAir CEO Mr Chin and SIA founding chairman JY Pillay being the most visible), there is also the potential - in the distant future - for Tiger to tie up with SIA's new long-haul low-cost carrier.

As Citigroup put it, the complaints in Australia and the Philippines are not worrisome and are 'probably the result of frustrations of its consumers or lobbying by its competitors and which may be handled without significantly altering Tiger's existing growth ambitions'. Indeed, after a horrible year, Tiger has what it takes to make the leap to profitability. It has the management expertise, the resources and the markets. Now it is a question of executing its recovery and expansion plan.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date: 07/10/11

Hyflux set to move into power generation

Business Times - 07 Oct 2011


Hyflux set to move into power generation

It has secured gas feedstock for Tuas project - part of 2nd desalination plant

By RONNIE LIM

DESALINATION group Hyflux is set to make its foray into power generation when it starts building this quarter a 411-megawatt combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) plant which is integral to its S$890 million second desalination plant project here at Tuas.

Hyflux has secured gas feedstock for the power plant, having recently signed a gas sales agreement for liquefied natural gas with Singapore's LNG aggregator, or buyer, BG Group, sources tell BT.

No details of the LNG volume are available, although other industry sources say that the Hyflux deal will probably have close to soaked up whatever remainder LNG volumes BG Group had to offer under the latter's exclusive licence to sell a total three million tonnes per annum or until 2023, whichever comes earlier.

Up until August, BG had sold 2.3 million tpa, or almost 77 per cent of its franchised volume, with the British group currently in the midst of carrying out its second two-month open season - which closes at end-October - for buyers for its remainder gas. Meanwhile Hyflux, with gas in hand, is now tieing up the engineering, procurement and construction deal for the power plant, which it expects to close very soon, the sources said.

'Construction will start this year, with the project expected to be completed before 2014,' a source said. This ties in with the LNG supplies to Singapore, with first deliveries by BG Group at the LNG terminal on Jurong Island expected in early-2013.

With its foray into power, Hyflux, which has been mainly involved in water desalination and treatment, has built up a core team to handle its oil and gas and power operations, and plans to beef this up, a source said.

In May, for example, Hyflux advertised for a power project manager/director to oversee the execution of the CCGT plant, and other oil and gas experts are also said to be in place.

The power plant is part of Hyflux's second and larger desalination plant to be built in Singapore. It will add as much as 318,500 cubic metres of desalinated water per day to Singapore's supply - dwarfing its earlier desalination plant here which has a capacity of 136,000 cu m daily.

There is industry speculation over whether Hyflux - which has desalination plants also in Algeria and China - will go it alone to operate its own power plant here or tie up with an experienced generation company. Hyflux is understood to be open to either option.

In Salalah, Oman, Hyflux for instance is a sub-contractor helping to build the desalination plant portion of a US$1 billion independent water and power project (IWPP) there secured by Sembcorp.

It is Sembcorp's second big project there following its US$1.7 billion Fujairah IWPP in Abu Dhabi.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date: 07/10/11

S-REIT 3QCY11 results preview: what to look out for (Nomura)

3QCY11 results preview: what to look out for

Anchor themes
While REITs have outperformed YTD, we believe the proposition to investors remains attractive on a total return basis in the context of current market volatility. With covered REITs already pricing in average worst-case probability of 36%, current valuations may be conservative. Recap risk also appears minimal at this point.

AREIT’s relative outperformance likely to continue

Action: AREIT likely to outperform; positive occupancy surprise for CCT, SUN?
For the coming results, AREIT is likely to outperform expectations while CDLHT could underperform, on our numbers. Vacancy risk at CCT and SUN looks largely priced, which suggests room for positive surprise should occupancy hold up better than expected.

3Q11: flattening rents, lower committed occupancy
The latest JLL data suggest rents across different sectors climbed at a slower pace of 3.1% on average in 3Q11, with conventional factory rents the strongest performer while suburban retail rents showed a marginal dip. Investors are also likely to focus on office assets’ committed occupancy, particularly CCT’s 6BR, OGS and SUN’s Suntec City assets, where major tenants have relocated. Considering the FY12F P/BV of 0.6-0.7x at which
CCT and SUN are trading, the vacancy risk appears largely priced.

3QCY11 DPU: 2.6% below consensus; AREIT could outperform, CDLHT could underperform
Our 3QCY11 DPU estimates are on average 2.6% below consensus and we see room for disappointment at CDLHT (Nomura vs consensus: -6.9%) given the market appears to have factored in strong q-q RevPAR growth. On the other hand, AREIT could outperform market expectations (Nomura vs consensus: +4.1%) on account of maiden contributions from Nordic European Centre and the scheduled completion of two more assets in 4QFY12 is likely to provide additional lift to full-year earnings.

AREIT: near bear-case valuation + potentially better-than-expected results = relative outperformance likely to continue
Using the historical mean less 1SD P/B level as our bear-case reference, the REITs we cover could see downside of 14% in a bear case, on our numbers. Only AREIT appears to be trading near its bear-case valuation, and with 2QFY12 numbers also likely to beat market expectations, AREIT’s relative outperformance to the market looks likely to continue.

3Q results preview: what to look out for
CCT kicks off the upcoming results season on 13 October. Themes such as flattish reversion rental growth, lower committed occupancy at 6BR, OGS and Suntec City assets, and even the refurbishment of Suntec City Mall are all well-flagged and mostly priced in, in our view. Our 3QCY11 DPU estimates are on average 2.6% below consensus and we see potential for AREIT to outperform and CDLHT to underperform market expectations.

Rents inched up in 3Q11, but growth hit plateau
Based on the latest Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) data for 3Q11, rents across office, retail and industrial properties climbed by 0.6% q-q during the quarter, compared to 2.6% q-q in 2Q11. The best performer in 3Q11 was the conventional factory space, registering sequential rental growth of 2.9%, while suburban retail rents showed a marginal decline of 0.4% q-q during the quarter. Prime Grade A office rents, prime retail rents and hi-tech industrial rents, on the other hand, were mostly flat in 3Q11.

Based on the hotel statistics provided by the Singapore Tourism Board (STB) up to the month of August, the average RevPAR in July and August was up 14.9% y-y to SGD216, which was marginally higher than what was achieved in 2Q11.

While market rents were, on the whole, firm during 3Q11, the pace of growth unmistakably slowed. Heading into 4Q11 and 2012, we see the biggest potential downside risk for hotel properties’ RevPAR, considering: 1) the inherently volatile occupancy; 2) the average RevPAR is already 4.9% higher than the last peak in 2Q08; and 3) another 2,400 new hotel rooms (c. 6% of current stock) is slated to be ready in 2012. By extension, the potential downside risk to CDLHT’s earnings could also be the highest, considering: 1) Singapore hotels represent 79% of its portfolio; and 2) its Singapore hotel portfolio’s RevPAR has tracked the market closely (2Q11 RevPAR was SGD205, vs market’s RevPAR of SGD212, for instance).

We think it is worth highlighting that while conventional factory rents appear to demonstrate a similar growth profile to hotels’ RevPAR, we believe the potential downside risk to AREIT’s earnings, on the other hand, is likely to be limited, considering: 1) light industrial and flatted factory assets account for just 16% of AREIT’s portfolio; 2) the average rent of expiring leases in FY12-13F is still 18.3% below market at SGD1.43psfpm; and 3) the weighted-average lease expiry (WALE) of the portfolio is relatively long at 4.5 years.

Committed occupancy: focus likely on 6BR, OGS and Suntec office, although vacancy risk is already well-flagged
In the upcoming 3QCY11 results, we believe the market will also focus on the committed occupancy of the REITs’ office assets, especially CCT’s Six Battery Road (6BR), One George Street (OGS), and SUN’s Suntec City office, on account of tenants’ relocation to Asia Square (Lloyd’s), Mapletree Business City (IDA and Nike) and Marina Bay Financial Centre (Nomura). While committed occupancy at these buildings could decline significantly in the upcoming results, because these relocations have been very wellflagged in the market, we believe much of this is already reflected in the current FY12F P/B of 0.6-0.7x (vs a sector average 0.9x) at which CCT and SUN are trading.

For SUN, we believe investors will also be focused on the committed occupancy of Suntec City Mall, which has been trending lower over the past four quarters. The market also widely expects the manager of SUN to announce the refurbishment of the mall, which would likely involve the convention centre, in which SUN increased its effective stake from 20% to 60.8% in August.

3QCY11 DPU estimates: 2.6% below consensus; AREIT could outperform, CDLHT could underperform
As of 5 October, three REITs under our coverage – CCT, KREIT and CMT – have announced their result release dates, with CCT scheduled to kick off the reporting season on 13 October before the market opens.

On a pro-rata basis, our DPU estimates for 3QCY11 (2QFY12 for AREIT; 3QFY11 for others) are on average 2.6% below consensus estimates (based on median Bloomberg estimates). CDLHT, AREIT and SGREIT show the biggest variance, with our respective estimates 6.9% below, 4.1% above and 5.3% above consensus. Between AREIT and SGREIT, our conviction for outperformance is relatively higher for AREIT, on account of: 1) maiden contributions from new acquisition; and 2) less exposure to overseas assets and translation effects.

In the case of CDLHT, while the maiden full-quarter contribution from Studio M is likely to provide some sequential lift to earnings, we believe the market may also have priced in strong sequential RevPAR growth for 3Q11. Judging from the July-August number, we believe there may be room for disappointment.

In the case of AREIT, we believe the maiden contribution from Nordic European Centre, which was acquired in July, will provide some sequential lift to earnings (not to mention 1QFY12 DPU would have been higher at 3.3Scts, if one-off items of c. SDG1.7mn were excluded). In addition, we expect the scheduled completion of Food Axis at Senoko and Fedex Regional Hub in 4QFY12 to provide an additional lift to FY12F earnings.

AREIT: near bear-case valuation + potential for results to beat expectation = relative outperformance likely to continue
In our note published on 23 September, Bear says knife could fall another 21%, we presented our bear-case valuation for the property stocks under our coverage, using the historical mean less 1SD P/B level as a reference, and projected potential for further downside risk of about 21% to share prices.

We have refreshed the table below for the REITs under our coverage, which shows potential for further downside risk of 14.3% to share prices under our bear case. Only AREIT appears to be trading near to its bear-case valuation at this point. With its upcoming 2QFY12 results also likely to beat market expectations, we believe AREIT’s relative outperformance over the past three months (-7% vs -19.1% for the FSSTI) is likely to continue near term.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Nomura Research
Publish date: 06/10/11

Silent REVOLUTION

Idris Jala, CEO of Pemandu, the powerful agency Malaysia created to remake itself, has been a quiet catalyst for change across the country’s economy and public sector institutions. Now, he needs to convince the market the transformation is for keeps.

Datuk Seri Idris Jala is an eternal optimist, and it would not be wrong to say he wishes that more Malaysians would see the glass as half-full rather than half-empty.

“I am a positive individual. I believe that no country can be successful unless and until the people have confidence in their own ability to shape the future,” Jala tells The Edge Malaysia in an interview

This optimism comes through every time Jala talks about Malaysia’s economic transformation journey.

And this despite the fact that he occupies one of the hottest seats in government as CEO of Pemandu, the Performance Management and Delivery Unit set up in 2009 to drive the New Economic Model (NEM) roadmap that will take Malaysia to high-income-nation status by 2020

In the little more than a year since he has been at Pemandu’s helm, Jala must have had to deal with many difficult situations, run into controversies and hit more than a few brick walls. And then there is the punishing pace that he and his team at Pemandu have been keeping.

Yet, it is very difficult to walk away from a meeting with Jala without having some of his optimism rub off on you.

The task before him is monumental because the stakes are high— the livelihood of current and future generations of Malaysians is dependent on the success of the NEM. Failure, as Jala likes to stress during his briefings on the progress of the Economic Transformation Programme (ETP), is not an option.

In January 2010, the Government Transformation Programme (GTP), one of the pillars of the NEM, was launched, and this was followed by the ETP in October.

Recently, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak detailed the six Strategic Reform Initiatives (SRIs), the second critical component of the ETP, to boost Malaysia’s global competitiveness.

The first part of the ETP was the identification of the 12 National Key Economic Areas (NKEAs), which involve 131 entry-point projects (EPPs) and a total investment of RM1.4 trillion ($568 billion).

With the SRIs, all the components necessary to turn the blueprint into reality are now in place. The toughest part of the transformation journey has begun, because structural reforms will inevitably involve painful adjustments and unpopular decisions.

In the short time since the NEM prepared by the National Economic Advisory Council has been announced, the mammoth exercise has gained momentum.

A slew of EPPs involving investments of some RM170 billion has been announced; these will contribute about RM220 billion to gross national income (GNI) and create 362,000 jobs.

This is seen as the easier part — the low-hanging fruits, so to speak. A common criticism is that the ETP has been too project-based.

According to Jala, what has been achieved so far is 11% to 13% of the ETP targets — investments of RM1.4 trillion, a GNI of RM1.7 trillion and 3.3 million new jobs by 2020.

The GTP has begun to bear fruit, with, among others, crime rates down 15% to 30%. “If in six months, we have 11% to 13% of the target, I believe we can do it. In everything that we are doing, the sense of urgency is there. This is not a walk in the park,” he says.

Yet, there is a view that the public has not felt the impact of the results. Scepticism still abounds as to how real the economic reforms will be, and whether there is political will to push the reforms through.

Jala remains convinced, however, that the wheels are well and truly in motion. A silent revolution is already taking place in the economy, he says.

“We have painted a picture of Vision 2020 — it is like a magical rose garden in the horizon. Let me tell you, the roses are blooming outside our windows; see them now. I see them in the investments that are coming through, in the reduction in the crime rate, in the improvement in literacy and in education, and in the urban transport work that we are doing.”

For Jala, the biggest challenge is managing the transition from the old to the new. He says, “When you start something new, you must recognise the old is there. The neutral zone is when there is co-existence between the old and the new. This is what you need to manage … If you want to manage the neutral zone, you must engage and I make no apologies for spending a lot of effort in engaging the public.”

He also strongly believes that change cannot happen overnight, but the building blocks have to be put in step by step. Bringing about change, he says, is not about first changing the mindset, but it must start with changing the way we do things. “Then only will the mind-set change.”

He believes that most people recognise the need for change, if Malaysia is to be able to compete on the global stage, and they support the painful decisions.

He says, “At a town-hall session on subsidy rationalisation, I said this will be the most unpopular decision that this government has to make in its entire history … The feedback was, we do it in small doses and stretch it over a period of time.” And this was what actually happened.

“Unfortunately, this group [that supports the change] is a silent majority … So, how do we make sure we hear the voices of the silent majority? If we can find a way to get their opinions and views, they will give us the confidence to go ahead with the reforms.

”It is still early days for the ETP. If Jala has his way and can persuade everyone to light a candle rather than curse the darkness, what seemed impossible and out of reach could be just outside our window.

On the next page is The Edge Malaysia’s interview with Idris.

The Edge Malaysia: The targets set under the NEM are ambitious. Are these achievable by 2020, which is less than 10 years away?
Is this time frame cast in stone?

Idris Jala: When we proposed Vision 2020,it brought hope to many to people. I believe that where there is hope for the future, there is power in the present. It is important to bring the hope and then translate that into power, in what we do today.

The GTP and ETP under the NEM are programmes to help us reach Vision 2020. Do we want to put targets that are so low we are guaranteed to achieve them? To our minds, 2020 is where we want to go and the public wants that; it is a great place to be. The term we use is ‘aspirational targets’. It is going to be more stretched than what we had. Our GDP has grown less than 5% over the last 10 years. It requires GDP to grow by 6%. We used to grow at 9% to 10%, so we believe 6% is do able. The key is focus and competitiveness. In the last 10 years, we did not have such focus because we were looking at all the sectors.

So, the NKEAs are clear areas of focus, and by putting emphasis on them, we can achieve the aspirational targets. The NKEAs are chosen because we have the competitive edge to do them well; also, they are already contributing to our GNI.

The second part is competitiveness. We’ve put in a lot of reform programmes. Let me give you some good examples of what we’ve done with regard to the GTP. For years, our crime rate has been rising. When we put out the targets under the GTP, no one believed we could bring down overall crime by 20%. Last year, overall crime (index crime) was brought down by 15% and street crime, 35%. These results are incredible by any measure. Most countries that did this programme took two years but we took one year to bring it down so radically. It is because we have a programme to cause it to happen, not just wishing it to happen.

Our GNI target is RM1.7 trillion by 2020. What we have achieved now are investments of RM170 billion in the EPPs, and GNI is RM220 billion, creating 362,000 jobs. What we’ve created is a momentum. The major part of the RM170 billion is from the private sector. We want the private sector to lead this transformation. If in six months, we achieved 11% to 13% of the targets, I believe we can do it. In every-thing that we’re doing, the sense of urgency is there. This is not a walk in the park.

But not all the announced projects will take off?
They are in the pipeline but not realised. By the end of this year, the expected realised investment is RM83 billion, that is the number in our 10MP [10th Malaysia Plan]. We believewe are well on the way. I have no doubt we will achieve that.

The numbers look very encouraging. In terms of private investment, how much of it is coming from the GLCs [government-linked companies]? How do you separate that?
The forecast is 60% non-GLC private investments and 32% from GLCs. Most of these [committed investment] are from the real private sector. The biggest one is Shell, which is spending RM5.1 billion this year; Exxon, RM10 billion. In the GLC transformation programme, we have made it very explicit to the GLCs that they must behave like a normal private-owned company. Malaysia Airlines is now running its business without any encumbrances from the government. So long as it acts like any other company, I don’t see why it shouldn’t compete. What is wrong with GLCs, provided they do not have an unfair advantage overthe competition?

The GTP has exceeded its targets after one year, such as lower crime, as you mentioned earlier. Yet, among the population, the perception is crime and corruption [rates] are still very high, and they don’t see improvement.

There is no way you can counter the argument when someone says ‘my cousin was robbed yesterday’. Crime is still there; it’s not zero. When you tell people it is reduced, their thinking is there are still, say, 170,000 people out there robbed. Managing perception is key. If you look at the Global Peace Index, Malaysia is No 1 in terms of safety and security in Southeast Asia— better than Singapore. Do you believe that? Of course you don’t. That is a perception survey. I am only relating this.

Perception is perception, reality is reality. The reality is that the real crime index is down. People are saying that we are throwing away reports of crime. No. Starting [July 11], we have introduced a scheme to get customers to rate police officers in 90 police stations in [the state of] Selangor on the quality of their services.

The new method is, we have analysed the incidence of crime and we found that most of the crimes were committed in the 11 hotspots in the city, not the 501 [zones patrolled by the police]. So, theoretically, if we divide the total police force of 2,800 in the city by 11, for each sector we have a potential of 260. The point is, we have redeployed a very significant number of policemen to the crime hotspots. This is exactly what they did in the NYPD [New York Police Department] and in London when they started to arrest crime. And it works.

We need intelligence data. We told the police that whenever there is a report about an incident, they must key it in. This is what we need in order to analyse where the crime hotspots are. If the crime hotspots change, then we redeploy the police to that area. So, the intelligence we put into the system is a lot more than what we’ve done before. That is why it works. We are fine-tuning it. Today, the methodology used for deployment of the police is more intelligent. By the way, we give medals for performance; we rank the police officers every quarter. Because of this method, there is a lot of motivation.

What about corruption?
We must put in the basic building blocks step by step. No country can remove corruption overnight. When corruption exists in society, it’s at the roots, within the mindset of the society. What are the basic building blocks? We have a Whistle blower Protection Act. That is a huge deterrent. The other is transparency of government contracts by putting them on our procurement portal. In one year, we put 3,700 on the portal. We have more than 800 people arrested for corruption, 284 convicted, and we publish their names on the naming and shaming portal, which is another building block. Also, we have the integrity pledge— for all ministries to say that they don’t want corruption. There are 18 corruption courts for speedy trials. That is the beginning. We need to continue to do this work. Hong Kong took 10 years to bring corruption down to a level where it could say it is there.

Society also plays a role. I believe the churches, mosques and Hindu temples have a big part to play. Morality issues are in the realm of religion: instilling the right values in people. Bribing people and accepting corruption is a no-no. Every parent must tell their kids that it is wrong to give or accept [bribes]. The giver is as much at fault as the taker.

The government is the downstream component, if you like. The upstream must be tackled at source — the values in a society. We must not say the job of removing corruption is just the government’s. It is a societal fight. When we look at countries that have successfully done this, it is when the whole eco-system is mature enough to tackle corruption.

The ETP and the slew of EPPs announced seem to be, at this point, a big fiscal stimulus plan, which is a quick fix for the economy. A common gripe is that there are no structural reforms. Now that the SRIs have been announced, do you see this as the toughest part of the ETP?
Actually, we started off by talking about structural reforms. We didn’t talk about the ETP or NKEAs, we talked about the SRIs. But these required a lot of public feedback and input, so it took the team [at the National Economic Advisory Council] a long time to come up with the key areas of structural reforms. The 51 policy measures that have been identified went through a very lengthy process of dialogue and input. In the meantime, we started work on the focus areas [NKEAs]. That was quicker.

But we’ve always known that both are critical; the yin and yang . The NKEAs are the yin and the yang is the enablers, which are the SRIs. One cannot work without the other. Jobs are created by projects. No projects, no investment, no GNI. Therefore, you need the doing side, that is, the activities. At the same time, you want to ensure that the goods and services that are produced are competitive, hence the structural reforms

We hope people understand that the ETP involves both SRIs and NKEAs. If people lose sight of the two, we are lost. I agree that public opinion now is that we are long on the projects, but this is because the SRIs came later. It is easy for us to talk about SRIs, but difficult to implement. For example, we’ve been talking about minimum wage since 1982. Getting everyone to come together to dialogue and come to a compromise, that’s the challenge. When both parties are neither happy nor unhappy, perhaps that is the sweet spot, the minimum wage.

Structural reforms require a tremendous amount of engagement with different parties. The government’s role is to facilitate.

We ran the lab on human resource, on capital development. The trade unions walked out. The Employers Federation also walked out. So we tell them, sit down and discuss. It is better that you come into the room, rather than a decision being made without you being in the room. I give credit to my colleague minister, Datuk Seri Dr S Subramaniam. He is the one who did all the work on minimum wages. Pemandu’s role is to facilitate. The content and work are done by the various ministries.

Economic transformation cannot take place without political will. Pemandu, as you say, is the facilitator. But there must be times when the reforms will run into headwinds because of the political implications. There is also scepticism that the NEM is watered down because of this.

Political will, I believe, is a function of public opinion. If the public doesn’t support, it is difficult to do. That is why we are doing town-hall engagement. Many people criticise, ask why we are spending so much money on engaging people. But when you steamroll your way through, they say why didn’t you engage. There are two ways to do this — take a dictatorial approach, steamroll and push the agenda through. But the Prime Minister says, 1 Malaysia, people first, performance now. He is very clear on this, [that] we do not steam rollour way through. We must get public opinion. That’s what we’re doing. It is a tough road to take, but that’s the way we are engaging.

At the town-hall session on subsidy ration a lisation, I said this will be the most unpopular decision that this government has to make in its entire history. At that time, we were proposing to increase petrol and diesel prices by 15 sen a litre and to do that regularly, every six months. But the feedback was, we agree it must be done, but don’t have very high increases, do it in small doses and stretch it over a longer period of time. So, instead of 15 sen a litre, we raised prices by five sen.

I believe this is the way to run a modern-day government, which requires public engagement. There is a big group of people who support the painful decisions. Unfortunately, this group is the silent majority. There is a small group that is angry and unhappy, but they are the loudest.

So, how do we make sure we hear the voices of the silent majority? If we can find away to get the silent majority’s opinions and views, they will give us the confidence to go ahead with reforms.

I’m not a politician and will never be. But I understand where the politicians are coming from, having been in the government for a while. If the public is saying, don’t do it or you will lose my vote, even though it is the right thing to do, it is very hard for them.

You said at the briefing the last time that it is managing the transition period from the old to the new that is the most challenging. How do you meet this challenge?

When you want to start something new, you must recognise that the old is there. The neutral zone is when there is a co-existence between the old and the new. This is what you need to manage. The process is very simple. If you want to manage the neutral zone, where the old and the new is, you must engage. Imake no apology for putting in a lot of effort in engaging the public.

How do you think salaries of workers are adjusted in Malaysia today? It is based on a collective agreement, which is negotiated every three years. The basis is inflation; if it is at 3%, salaries must rise by a minimum of 3%. If inflation rises, salaries will rise too. This is how it works. The reality is salaries get adjusted on the basis of the CPI [Consumer Price index]. If you keep inflation at 1%, your salary will go up by 1%.

So, by the same argument, you look at subsidies. You cannot expect Malaysia to become a high-income nation when you want low costs. Look at Singapore, it is an expensive country. You have to accept the fact that when you want to be a high-income country, at some point you’ll be a high-cost country. Therefore, we need to make sure the basic building blocks are there to cause this to happen, and we need to be courageous enough to make the decisions — taking off some of the subsidies, making sure inflation will not spiral to levels that are disastrous while allowing wage adjustments to catch up. At the same time, we put in safety nets; that is why minimum wage is critical.

Returning to your question on transition management, we as a country cannot use the loud minority to shape the agenda of a nation. We must let everybody’s voice be heard.

When Pemandu was created to drive the ETP and GTP, you were made the CEO. The general perception is, you’ve been doing a good job the last year or so as the architect. But there is also worry that there’ll be no continuity if you leave.

I have some really good people on my team. In shaping a team, I never for a moment believe that the answer lies in changing the mindset. We change the way people do things, then the mindset will change as well.

For example, the police force. We don’t ask them to change their attitude. We start by saying this is the new way for deploying the police — to the hotspots. And because now they are seeing the results, their mind set be gins to change. This is transformation: You transform by doing, learn by doing.

The police are absolutely good at what they do. They now have the framework to do it, they use the data intelligently to analyse. They are reconfiguring the hotspots — they are going into time, not only the days. This capability is created after doing this differently from the past. That is the key.

How you institutionalise this new way of working is the challenge. It is not about Idris Jala. Many labs are created. Labs are nothing more than aclose functional pool where we bring people to a room and tell them to focus. We’ve written a book on how to run labs and distributed it throughout the civil service through Mampu.

The continuity on the progress of the ETP has nothing to do with mere ally. It will progress because all the ministers are taking ownership

How do you inspire confidence that the goals are achievable?
It is so hard to describe to people that there is a silent revolution taking place in this economy. We have painted a picture of Vision 2020. It seems like a magical rose garden in the horizon. Let me tell you, the roses are blooming outside our windows; see them now. I see them in the investments that are coming through, in the reduction in the crime rate, in the improvement in literacy and in education, in the urban public transport work that we are doing.

I am a positive individual. I believe that no country can be successful unless and until the people have confidence in their own ability to shape the future. The biggest worry I have for this country is the negativity that is so large and consuming. If we are not careful, it starts to spiral downwards and becomes the psyche of Malaysian society. We start saying we are no good, start saying other countries are better. Before long, our confidence level starts to shut us down. We are proud to be Malaysian, we are proud of what we’re doing as a society, we work together.

I must tell you this small story about[Nelson] Mandela; he’s my hero.

My family and I were in South Africa a few years ago, and we went to see where Mandela was imprisoned for 27 years during one of the worst regimes in history, apartheid. For seven years, he was made, together with his fellow prisoners, to carry limestones from one end of a quarry to the other in the hot sun.

Today, some of his fellow prisoners are tourist guides [on Robben Island] and one of them told me that despite all that happened, Mandela told his fellow prisoners, when they release us, we will forgive them.

In our country, we haven’t found a way to forgive each other for our imperfections.

[Our situation is] no way as hard as South Africa, yet they were able to do a programme called forgive and forget. The reconciliation was critical.

What we need for this country is a movement for reconciliation. We need to forgive each other for the hurts. So long as that doesn’t happen, it is very hard for us to build 1 Malaysia. We have so much good going for us in our country today; there is no reason for us to moan and groan about what we have.

Let’s focus on growing the economy, let’s help the poor. I came [onboard] because of the desire to contribute to the country at this point in my career. There is only one time in your life you have an opportunity to contribute to society.

The bedrock of society exists when all of us can come together and say, “I accept you” and, beyond that, “I celebrate and appreciate that you are different from me, that you have a different religion from mine.”

It is not just tolerating one another — that is the lowest level.

How many of us look at the virtues of other religions? How many of us would say the virtues of other races are better than mine? We always say the Chinese make good business people, so we should say “that’s great, how can I learn from you”. The Malays are very artistic and creative, and that’s great; how can we harness this creativity? We say the Indians are good lawyers; that is great, we can harness that.

If 1 Malaysia is to become one Malaysia in its pure sense, it can-not come from us cajoling it [intobeing]. It begins with a whole society coming out to say “let’s now work together, what can we do?”,and we must do it. And that is societal movement.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.theedgesingapore.com
Publish date:17/07/11

标普:新加坡房地产价格 明年将调整5%至10%

标准与普尔认为,新加坡房地产的价格将会在明年调整5%至10%。投资者不必在现在急着置产。
  标普分析师(证券研究,亚洲)李伟贤是在“房地产市场:可以期待些什么?”讲座中,提出以上看法。

  他受访时说,房地产供应仍然持稳,加上近来土地的投标价也不高,发展商在定价方面因此不会那么高。

  像最近刚推出的共管公寓项目宝家轩(A Treasure Trove)的定价就很合理,价位在每平方尺800多元。

  “对我来说,在目前经济不明朗,房屋市场又有潜在供应量的情况下,人们没有必要急着进场。”

  他指出,5%至10%的调整是根据标普的“基线情境”(baseline scenario)定出的,即希腊会继续留在欧元区。若希腊倒债、退出欧元区的情况发生,房屋价格会下跌更多。

  另一方面,标普亚洲区研究总监陈丽子则指出,市场有30%的可能性会进入衰退。

  她建议投资者在股票采取防守策略,并推荐只买入保健、能源和港口这三类行业比较稳定的股票。

  她认为美国的情况还没有见底,预期经济要到今年底和明年初才会好转。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date:07/10/11

利好消息缓和市场避险情绪 海指回弹74点

美国经济数据表现良好,加上欧元区领导人设法支持银行业,新加坡股市结束五连跌,昨天回弹74点,突破2600点关口。

  昨天美国著名就业服务机构ADP公布的美国9月就业人数,以及美国供应管理协会公布的ISM非制造业指数,双双好于预期。

  有迹象显示,欧元区决策者正准备对该地区银行进行资本重组,带动受创的银行股反弹。美联储局主席伯南克也表示,准备采取更多行动来帮助美国经济,利好消息缓和市场的避险情绪。

  苹果创办人乔布斯的逝世,令世人感到震惊,所幸没有撼动市场,亚洲股市普遍回暖。

  海指前天创下2009年8月19日以来新低。昨早它以2569.19点开市,在银行股和商品股的带动下,午盘后开始走高,闭市报2602.37点,全天起73.66点或2.91%。

  30只成分股当中,共有26只上升股及2只下跌股,由星展银行、大华银行和丰益国际领涨。

  大华继显研究认为,海指接下来将在2500点至2615点之间徘徊。新加坡证券投资者协会研究公司分析员高龙飞则指出,三大主要技术指标显示,海指仍偏向跌势,唯有突破2800点的心理水平才有望回弹。

  里昂证券表示,考虑到新加坡国内生产总值的增长,以及企业盈利前景,海指其实面临下调风险。如果按9.2倍的本益比计算,海指将处于2050点,较目前水平低约19%。

  分析师认为,目前采取防守策略还来得及,电信类股较房地产信托更具防御性,推荐新电信和星和。如果想寻找这两大板块以外的防御类,分析师建议考虑新加坡报业控股和新邮政。

反映出19种商品价格的路透/Jefferies商品指数,昨天起1.9%。相关商品股来宝集团起10.5分报1.38元,星展唯高达证券建议“买入”,目标价为1.70元。奥兰国际起5分报2.25元。

  丰益国际起22分报4.67元。过去三天因为糖价课题导致丰益国际股价下挫16%,大华继显研究认为市场过度反应,因为糖只占经营盈利的5%至10%。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date:07/10/11

后乔布斯时代 世界IT业谁主沉浮?

全球IT巨头纷纷加入霸主争夺战,都想在“后乔布斯时代”获得IT业主导权。微软、谷歌和三星电子等大企业积极构筑合作关系,向苹果“霸主地位”发起挑战。苹果在IT业的影响力可能有所下降,谷歌和微软等企业将借此机会扩充势力,全球IT业有望呈现多极化趋势。

  对苹果威胁最大的是谷歌。双方目前在IT业最激烈的智能手机和平板电脑战场展开巅峰对决。苹果在硬件、软件和网络资源产业都业绩非凡,一直称霸世界IT业。

  谷歌为了改变市场格局,积极联手三星电子、摩托罗拉和HTC等友军,还针对苹果iPhone的操作系统“iOS”,自主开发出安卓系统(Android),免费供全球手机厂家使用,并通过这一战略扭转了市场格局。据美国市场调查机构Canalys透露,今年第二季度全球智能手机市场安卓手机的份额为48%,是苹果iPhone(20%)的两倍。

  谷歌正在完全照搬苹果的战略。苹果有引以为自豪的软件商店“App Store”和在线音乐商城“iTunes”,谷歌也推出相似的服务,与其竞争。

  微软在苹果的步步紧逼下,也借鉴了谷歌的合纵连横的“成功模式”。即,把安卓阵营内的手机厂家也拉入微软阵营。微软以威力超强的软件专利为武器,向三星电子和HTC发起攻势,终于与这些公司达成了联手研发新一代智能手机的协议。

  全球最大的手机厂家诺基亚也属于微软阵营。微软韩国总经理金廷佑说:“微软的Window Phone操作系统和电脑的使用环境相似,使用便捷,这是它最大的优势。智能手机格局会发生变化。”

  IBM放弃电脑事业,把事业重点放在了IT服务和中大型电脑,它和苹果、谷歌和微软等公司也都建立了合作关系。IBM的战略是不和某个公司形成竞争关系,避免正面较量,从中获取利益。IBM相关人士说,如果没有我们提供的计算机系统,各大企业很难运营网络服务。

  英特尔的战略和IBM也相似。曾与微软“亲如一家”并称霸PC时代的英特尔最近正在和苹果走得很近,它的战略是,通过提供苹果所需的芯片扩大市场。

  全球最大的社交网站Facebook正在一点一点蚕食苹果的市场。靠朋友交流功能起家的Facebook正在逐渐扩大事业范围,甚至已进军在线音乐和电影服务。

  除苹果以外的各企业间的纷争也非常激烈。如,企业软件的巨头甲骨文正在针对谷歌提起专利诉讼,理由是谷歌的安卓操作系统侵犯了它的软件专利。

  朝鲜日报记者 金熙燮


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date:07/10/11

杨肃斌: 乔布斯商业模式 值得华商学习

昨天逝世的苹果公司创始人史蒂夫.乔布斯(Steve Jobs),其经商手法值得华商借鉴与效仿。

  杨忠礼集团董事经理杨肃斌昨天在世界华商大会的“成功企业家论坛”上讲话时,以乔布斯的死讯与创新头脑作为开场话题,并赞赏乔布斯具灵活性且以低成本创造出高智慧产品的商业模式,认为在座华商可以借鉴与学习。

  他说,互联网与科技的盛行已经改变了人类,如今的消费者,甚至是选民的要求已经大大提高,他们不喜欢缺乏灵活性的东西,追求的是更廉价、更高素质的产品与服务,是华商不可忽视的大趋势。

  “乔布斯的智能手机iPhone正符合他们的需求,其高科技不但改善了人们的生活方式,而且由于零部件在台湾及中国生产与安装,其价格因此也相当合理。”

  杨肃斌说,这就是所谓的“大量经营模式”(abundance model),过往由单一商家垄断整个市场的“稀缺经营模式”(scarcity model)如今已极为不受消费者欢迎,无论是食品、手机、电信服务及其他领域。

  他也以埃及政治体系与欧洲经济为例子,指企业如果不灵活经营业务,即使是市场垄断者,终究也会被踢出局。

  他建议华商在提供高素质与廉价产品与服务的同时,也应善用互联网来推动业务增长。他说:“亚洲企业家必须提高对互联网和科技模式的意识,不要感到畏惧,大胆去利用它,这样一来,我们当中有一天也将冒出另一个乔布斯。”

  他举例,博德斯(Borders)在互联网的崛起之下,因不敌网络书店如Amazon而面临收盘,因此华商有必要“拥抱科技”。

  杨肃斌昨天虽然以英语发言,但他精彩的谈话内容,获得台下与会华商的热烈掌声。

  在谈到他个人的经验时,他说:“我父亲从事建筑业超过20年,他很久以前就告诉我,在接管公司后一定要改变经营模式,利用科技创造更具竞争力的产品。若不这么做的话,无论我们多努力也无法跟上世界迅速改变的步伐。”

  “我们因此采用蓝海策略,以五分之一的成本,在吉隆坡提供类似英国现有的快铁服务,让消费者可以更低廉的价格,在30分钟内从吉隆坡抵达机场。如今这项快铁服务的载客量已经达到3000万人次。”


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date:07/10/11

乔布斯走了 苹果前景如何?

美国苹果公司(Apple)共同创办人暨前任首席执行长史蒂夫·乔布斯(Steve Jobs)于周三因胰腺癌去世,享年56岁。

  这个一代科技企业奇才、苹果公司的灵魂人物就此陨落,许多分析师虽认为苹果前景光明,但如今乔布斯不在了,仍令人产生许多疑问。

  乔布斯的离世,对于苹果公司本身、整个科技行业和竞争对手,到底会产生什么影响?昨天很快成为市场的争议重点,而市场也作出了反应,苹果公司众多竞争对手的股价上涨。

  乔布斯被誉为历史上最伟大的首席执行长之一,他在8月把职位交给了长期担任运营长的蒂姆·库克(Tim Cook),而库克将把苹果带往何方,乔布斯是否已为苹果的“下一重磅事件”打好基础,这类猜测从不缺乏。

  目前,业内猜测集中在苹果将致力推动家庭设备及电视革新。过去,苹果深入音乐和电话等分散且停滞的领域,但后来它通过科技创新让这些行业改头换面。

  乔布斯创造了一系列开辟先河的电子产品,彻底改变了多个产业的形态,并把苹果打造成市值高达3500亿美元的科技巨擘。

  苹果公司的后备新产品充足,短期内应该不太会有多少颠簸。但不太清楚的是,苹果能否最终继承乔布斯在产品创意与营销方面的杰出才能。

  库克周二推出了上任后的首款重要产品,但市场反应平平,这可能被视为一个警讯。

  在库克领导下,苹果是否以及将如何转变仍待观察。不过库克在苹果取得的成功大部分是缘于他与乔布斯的许多共同之处:追求完美、注重细节以及在谈判桌上的强硬态度。

乔布斯辞世震动亚洲市场,因为苹果公司的许多主要供应商都位于亚洲,而且该公司的一些主要竞争对手也在亚洲设有业务。

  供应商面临的一大问题是,乔布斯的去世是否会导致苹果公司的创新能力下降。而倘若苹果公司营销能力下降,那么将会给竞争对手创造机会。



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date:07/10/11
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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