Saturday, October 1, 2011

曾淵滄教路: 美國不提量化寬鬆 港股或因禍得福

美國不提量化寬鬆 港股或因禍得福
現在不管你用甚麼角度來看,都很難堅持港股仍處於牛市,港股於去年十一月見頂而輾轉下跌,一浪比一浪低,去年十一月,香港恒指約24,988點,至今下跌約30%。但是,掀起全球股災的美國股市,依然沒有走向熊市的現象,美國道指在過去一年的最高點是12,876點,九月二十二日跌至10,734點,跌幅僅17%,二○○七年,道指最高點也只是14,279點,與九月二十二日比較,差距25%,但是,目前恒指與二○○七年的高位比較,差得太遠了,差距接近一半。

美國創造金融海嘯,今日全球的問題實際上是金融海嘯的後遺症,但是美股的表現依然遠比其他國家、地區強,為甚麼?

收縮銀根股市急跌
答案在中國內地,是中國人民銀行的緊縮銀根政策導致港股跌幅遠大於美國,要比較,我們應該說,內地股市比香港股市跌得更慘,更可怕。

二○○七年十月,上證綜指最高點是6,124點,至二○○八年十月跌至1,665點,然後急速反彈,可是反彈不足一年就停止了,二○○九年八月,上證綜指創出3,478點後就反覆下跌,至今已下跌超過兩年,是一個實實在在的大熊市,與二○○九年八月的高位比較,跌幅是30%,目前恒指與去年十一月高位比較。跌幅也是30%,這是巧合,還是說內地股市對香港股市的影響更大。目前內地股市與二○○七年的高位比較,那是太可憐了,足足跌了60%,上證綜指幾時能回到二○○七年的高位?內地股市會不會變成另一個日本?過去二十年,日本股市搞來搞去都無法接近一九九○年的高位,當時日經指數最高38,957點,目前連9,000點也沒有。

中國經濟增長世界第一,但是中國股市表現卻非常差,唯一的道理是人民銀行收緊銀根,銀根一緊,股價就撐不住,在內地撐不住,香港也撐不住,因為在香港炒股票的錢中不少是來自內地,為甚麼人民銀行要緊縮銀根?

不再擔心熱錢流入
理由是壓抑通脹壓抑樓價,為甚麼有通脹,理由相當多,這包括中國經濟增長好,人民收入增加,再加上大量熱錢流入,轉換成人民幣,增加了人民幣的供應,還有,二○○八年底的四萬億基建,二○○九年及二○一○年的每年近十萬億的新增銀行貸款……簡單的講,就是市場裏有太多的錢,因此要壓通脹、要壓樓價,唯一的方法就是收緊銀根,人民銀行在美國推出第二次量化寬鬆政策之後,收緊銀根的步伐更是愈來愈緊,毫不手軟,每月必加一次銀行存款準備金比率0.5%,每數個月也加一次利率。

現在,美國不再推出量化寬鬆政策,市場的第一個反應是很差,股價急跌。但是,美國不再推出量化寬鬆政策也意味着,中國政府不再需要擔心熱錢流入,目前的緊縮銀根政策是不是會放鬆?如果放鬆,港股會因禍得福。


輯錄自 422期 Book A 【曾淵滄教路】

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 東周刊
Publish date: 27/09/11

Weekend Comment Sep 30: Shell fire fuels more worries

THE RISKS TO the economy of trade-dependent Singapore have been well flagged. Europe’s deepening debt crisis and the increasingly despondent US economy have been keeping investors and government officials here on their toes for months. But there’s one new domestic development that could further fuel anxieties about the country’s near-term economic prospects.

A potential plunge in output at Royal Dutch Shell’s Singapore refinery after it was engulfed by fire on Wednesday (Sep 28) is threatening to crimp the city-state’s industrial production. The blaze at the Pulau Bukom facility -- Shell’s largest refinery worldwide -- was finally extinguished on Thursday, but the oil giant says traces of fuel vapour remain, although it claims they’re non-toxic.

The area affected is about 150 metres by 50 metres in size. Shell has already closed several refinery units in the vicinity of the fire and says it’s prepared to shut down the entire refinery operation for safety reasons. Pulau Bukom is located more than five kilometres away from Singapore’s shores.

The company has yet to disclose its losses so far, but a complete shutdown could be costly, not only for Shell but the industry as a whole. The refinery can process 500,000 barrels of oil a day. While a Shell executive has said the incident won’t affect the supply of gasoline or gasoil in Singapore, the impact on export markets is less clear as most of the refinery’s output is meant to be sold in the region. Singapore is Asia’s largest oil trading and storage centre.

“The extent of the damage is still unclear, but what is certain is there will be unplanned downtime with supply disruptions to chemical-related producers,” say CIMB economists Song Seng Wun and Ching Quan Jian in a note to clients. They say they turned bearish on Singapore’s manufacturing sector even before this incident, warning that the industry’s performance in 4Q2011 and beyond could be wobbly as their channel checks suggest weak technology output going into 1Q2012.

The chemical sector accounted for 10.7% of Singapore’s manufacturing output and 2.8% of GDP in 2010. For the first eight months of this year, oil made up 27% of Singapore’s total exports, while petrochemical products accounted for 7.5%.

“The temporary loss of refinery capacity and petrochemical output thus does not bode well for Singapore’s manufacturing and exports in late September and possibly for most of October,” according to Song and Ching. For now, they are retaining their Singapore GDP growth estimate of 4.5% for 2011, but add that the forecast could be downgraded pending the extent of the damage arising from the Shell incident and troubles in Europe and the US. Singapore’s official GDP forecast for this year is growth of between 5% and 6%.

For investors wondering how best to put their money to work under the current market conditions, there’s no straightforward answer as even analysts themselves are divided on what action to take. “We still maintain a cautious-bearish stance on the Straits Times Index and the S&P 500,” says Phillip Securities strategist Joshua Tan. “Singapore is already on track to post a second quarter of negative quarter-on-quarter growth. We are barely scrapping it in for 3Q2011.”

CLSA analysts Ashwin Sanketh and Lu Chuanyao, on the other hand, advocate what they call a “dividend cocktail portfolio”. This comprises six large-cap, liquid stocks with “strong” underlying fundamentals – United Overseas Bank, ST Engineering, Singapore Press Holdings, Starhub, Singapore Telecommunications and Ascendas REIT.

“We believe that in volatile times, where the macroeconomic environment remains uncertain and there is a lack of conviction on any one strategy, leave alone individual stocks. We continue to espouse a dividend-biased approach,” they say.

Sakthi Siva and Chik Kin Nang of Credit Suisse suggest simply going for stocks with price-to-book valuations close to their lows in 2008 and 2009. These include Olam International, Sembcorp Industries, CapitaLand, SingTel, ComfortDelgro and SMRT.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.theedgesingapore.com
Publish date:01/10/11

Tiger Airways expects Q2 loss to be 'markedly larger' than Q1's

Business Times - 01 Oct 2011


Tiger Airways expects Q2 loss to be 'markedly larger' than Q1's

By WINSTON CHAI

TIGER Airways is bleeding both talent and revenue after its wings were clipped in Australia. Beyond losing several top executives, the embattled budget carrier has now warned of a sizeable loss for its July-September second quarter following a six-week suspension Down Under.

In a statement yesterday, the airline said that it expects to be in the red for the three months ended Sept 30, compared to a net profit of $14.1 million a year earlier. On a sequential basis, the losses are expected to be 'markedly larger' than the $20.6 million net loss for the April-June first quarter, it added.

Tiger's Australian flights were grounded on July 1 by the nation's Civil Aviation Safety Authority over safety concerns.

The carrier resumed service on a restricted local schedule on Aug 12 after it agreed to buck up in areas such as pilot training and crew scheduling.

Tiger, which is one-third owned by Singapore Airlines, can operate up to only 18 flights on a daily basis, compared with a maximum of 60 before the ban.

In the months of July and August, Tiger's passenger numbers plunged 32 per cent and 22 per cent respectively to 358,000 and 344,000 compared with a year ago. Its passenger load factor fell by three percentage points and 10 points year on year to 86 per cent and 76 per cent.

The company had previously said that the grounding could hit its bottom line to the tune of around $2 million a week.

Crawford Rix, the head of its Australian operations then, and his successor, former Tiger CEO Tony Davis, have both left the firm in the wake of the debacle.

Besides the impact from Australia, Tiger said, its Q2 bottom line was also dented by a lower passenger load in Singapore and a surge in fuel prices.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date: 02/10/11

CapitaMalls Asia gets HK nod for secondary listing

Business Times - 01 Oct 2011


CapitaMalls Asia gets HK nod for secondary listing

Listing by introduction expected to take place on Oct 18

By UMA SHANKARI

CAPITAMALLS ASIA (CMA) has received in-principle approval from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong (HKEx) to list on its main board, CMA said yesterday.

The listing is expected to take place on Oct 18. No equity will be raised from the exercise as it is a listing by introduction.

CMA, which was spun off from CapitaLand and listed on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) in November 2009, announced in March 2011 it had applied for a secondary listing in Hong Kong.

China accounts for about 42 per cent of CMA's total property portfolio. Given the growing importance of its China business, the company hopes the proposed secondary listing will complement its expansion in the country. The property group also expects the listing to boost its investor base, profile and liquidity, give it an additional avenue for financing, and enhance research coverage on the company.

'Our proposed secondary listing on HKEx will widen our investor base and make us more attractive to investors both in Hong Kong and China, which will augment our growth in China,' said CMA chairman Liew Mun Leong. 'This will enable us to tap capital from the top two financial markets in Asia in the future.'

The company does not expect any immediate, short-term impact on its share price, he added.

With the dual listing, investors can trade CMA on either SGX or HKEx. The company will help facilitate the transfer of shares for shareholders who wish to trade on HKEx, and has put in place a batch transfer system, it said. CMA will bear part of the costs for the first two batch transfers.

CMA owns and manages 96 malls in 51 cities in Singapore, China, Malaysia, Japan and India. Since its listing on SGX, it has made 11 acquisitions with investments worth about $4 billion - including seven in China. It announced its latest acquisition on Thursday, saying it will join a government-owned Chinese developer to build a shopping mall and two office towers in Suzhou Industrial Park. Based on its 50 per cent share, CMA is expected to invest about 3.37 billion yuan (S$687 million) in the project.

Operational malls will make up 60 per cent of CMA's China retail net asset value by end 2011, said Standard Chartered analysts Meenal Kumar and Regina Lim in a fresh report. 'We think this should help turn the tide for CMA's China earnings, as opening costs for large, chunky completing assets have been offsetting the earnings of smaller, existing assets,' they said.

CMA shares gained two cents to close at $1.22 yesterday.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date: 02/10/11

Raffles Edu unit buying JB land for RM76.5m

Business Times - 01 Oct 2011


Raffles Edu unit buying JB land for RM76.5m

By NISHA RAMCHANDANI

RAFFLES Education Corp's subsidiary, Raffles K12, has accepted a letter of offer to acquire a piece of land in Johor Baru for some RM76.5 million (S$31.2 million) in its bid to expand into the international school business.

'In line with the company's expansion plans and strategic directions to expand into the international school business, the company intends to acquire the land to construct and develop an American system school in Johor Baru, Malaysia, catering to students from Kindergarten to Year 12,' Raffles Education said in a filing to the Singapore Exchange.

The land, which spans about 46.22 acres (18.7ha), is being transferred to vendor Education@Iskan-dar. The land is currently registered in the name of Iskandar Investment, Education@Iskandar's holding company.

The acquisition will be funded through a combination of bank borrowings and internal resources. A deposit of about RM1.53 million - or 2 per cent of the purchase price - is payable to Education@Iskandar on acceptance of the offer letter.

When the sale and purchase agreement is executed, a balance deposit of around RM6.12 million or 8 per cent of the purchase price is payable. The total amount is to be paid over five years from the date of the agreement.

According to the offer letter, the proposed acquisition is dependent on two terms - that a sale and purchase agreement is executed within 90 days from the date of acceptance of the offer letter or such other date agreed upon in writing between the parties as well as the successful transfer and registration of the land to Education@Iskandar.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date: 02/10/11

Warren Buffett Buying Stock Bargains with U.S. Recession 'Very, Very Unlikely'




Warren Buffett Buying Stock Bargains with U.S. Recession 'Very, Very Unlikely'
Published: Friday, 30 Sep 2011 | 10:22 AM ET

Warren Buffett says Berkshire Hathaway has been buying stocks at bargain prices, including shares of his own company.

In a live interview on CNBC from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Buffett revealed Berkshire has bought a net total of $4 billion worth of common stocks during the quarter that ends today. That's about as much as the company bought in the first half of the year.

He tells Squawk Box co-host Andrew Ross Sorkin, "The cheaper stocks get, the better I like to buy them, whether its our stock or somebody else's."


Buffett says he thinks Berkshire's market price is very attractive, and the company has just begun to repurchase some shares under the surprise buyback program announced on Monday. Buffett wouldn't reveal how much has been bought, noting the "paperwork was just completed yesterday." It all depends on the price. "The cheaper it is, the more aggressive, generally, we will be buying. It's just like any other stock."



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CNBC
Publish date: 30/09/11

Economic insight and strategies

The Star Online > Business
Saturday October 1, 2011

Economic insight and strategies

StarBizWeek’s (SBW) Jagdev Singh Sidhu, Yvonne Tan and Choong En Han hosted a roundtable with TA Research head Kaladher Govindan (KG), former Bank Negara deputy governor and economist Tan Sri Lin See-Yan (LSY), Aberdeen Asset Management managing director Gerald Ambrose (GA) and Phillip Capital Management chief investment officer Ang Kok Heng (AKH) earlier this week to speak about the current global economic situation, how it is affecting stock markets and what strategies investors should employ in such a time as this. Here are the excerpts of the roundtable discussion.

SBW: Stock markets are reacting to an increasingly bleak economic outlook, do we really know where we are headed?

LSY: I think the forecast for the world economy this year, where the IMF has forecast an economic growth of 4% for the world and 2% for Europe and the United States is too optimistic. I expect Europe to go into some form of recession by the end of the year or early next year.

There might be a mild recession, technically or otherwise, but it all depends on assumptions. However, even Germany is starting to see signs of slowing down.

I expect that the Americans will still be experiencing low growth, but my main point is that, technically you can argue that they might not get into a recession, but most people feel the recession and that is the most important, people would act accordingly when they feel the recession, so over the next six months, I am not optimistic at all.

I think things will get worse and I don’t think the Europeans will solve the crisis. They will just solve the problem like how they have solved it previously, which is just kicking the can down that road, that is all they can do.

China is decelerating as well. All indicators that I see are starting to slow down, in particular the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) . However, the Chinese have a way of handling themselves, China may slow down but not significantly, 1% down is no big deal for them, they will still grow by about 7% to 8%.

Inflation will still be a problem, and like everybody else and politicians all over the world, they will tackle inflation by price controls, which will eventually make things worse, but that is how they are going to do it.

You can contain inflation within certain boundaries, but it will get worse, no question about it.

The Chinese being Chinese, they will look at the world economy and act accordingly, although they are disappointed with world growth. They will not aggressively increase domestic demand and they will just save more. It is the nature of the Chinese.

I expect Asia as a whole to slow down as well, South-East Asia will slow down quicker as most of the countries are dependent on trade.


How does this in your opinion translate to the Malaysian economy, and with all our plans in store and on the table – will it make a difference?

GA: I think we will suffer generally but the domestic economy is the area where I am still pretty optimistic about. How the economy fares will be different from how our markets fare.

If I am arriving from Mars, and would want to be somewhere in the world, I would rather be in Asia and Malaysia in my view, is a good place to be.


What are things in the Malaysian economy that would give us strength and offer protection in an increasingly challenging global outlook?

KG: Basically the important thing we have to remind ourselves about is the Government’s plan.

For the first time, Malaysia has come up with a long term plan, hence the Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) is an important milestone for Malaysia.

I think it now boils down to implementation, how the plans can be implemented without fear or favour.

Last year, the United States and Europe contributed about 20% to our exports. We are still a trade dependent nation and for us to overcome this downturn with the foreseeable slow down in future external trade, I believe local domestic consumption and demand needs to pick up.

Consumption is a very important aspect here. I think if you look in terms of employment, we are still in full employment. People are still confident about spending and housing demand is still strong.

Also, the banking system is still flushed with liquidity and people are still spending. It is crucial now for the Government to implement its projects very boldly.

AKH: Generally, Malaysia is more diversified and blessed with natural resources. Even when other parts of Malaysia is not doing so well, the additional income the Government gets from oil allows it to spend.

Without oil, Malaysia is in big trouble. Oil accounts for 40% of government revenue.


Rising household and government debt is a worrisome factor. Do you agree or disagree?

LSY: It all depends on how you look at it. Compared with Europe, the United States and Japan, our debt levels are still low. I would like to ask a more fundamental question, which is what do we spend our debt on?

I think this is the point; are we getting a bang for the buck?

This is where a lot of bells would start ringing.

In this country we love form rather than context and in the process of assessment, we bastardised the Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). We try to keep KPIs for the sake of the numbers. Even in education we look at how we are ranked, and we break it down and see how we can play with the numbers in order to meet (KPI) criteria so that we can be upgraded.

That is not the way, we must start from meritocracy. If you don’t do that, you can meet your all KPIs but you are still be back to square one.

As far as the Government is concerned, I am not worried about the Government per say. I’m worried about the government agencies which are piling up debt. If you look at the development expenditure, it’s the agencies that are the big spenders. What sort of return on capital are we are getting?

I’m one of the biggest proponents of the mass rapid transit project. I think this is the best thing that can happen to us. If it can be implemented successfully, there is a good basis to reduce subsidies, not to mention the project’s multiplier effect.

The key is to do it well. The real question is, will we do it well?


What we saw in 2008 is that banks cut interest rates and flooded the world with money. Given the amount of money slushing around and with rates already low, can it work again to stimulate global growth?

GA: It has been that way since 1987. Whenever the cycle starts to turn down, central banks are put under tremendous pressure to keep things going. Hence, reducing interest rates to zero, and creating more money.

The naughty thing about Malaysia is what people do with the money.

Monthly instalments for hire purchase loans for cars are sometimes significantly higher than an individual’s mortgage.

I’m not sure whether that is right or wrong, as the car would lose 20% of its value right after you drive it out from the showroom.

Malaysia has not lost it. The Government’s revenue is still very good but the problem is expenditure. How money is spent appears to have a disconnect as the money spent on infrastructure development doesn’t seem to be that effective.

As a comparison, in China a 24-km six-lane bridge construction from mainland to an island cost about US$6.7bil, while in Malaysia, a bridge from the mainland to Penang spanning 6km costs the same. There seems to be an extra sort of premium for Malaysians to get things done.


When we speak about the ETP, the Government Transformation Programme, another element is political transformation. If you want to be a high-income economy, all facets of economy and the way of life have to be move upwards.

When you look at things that are already on the table, in totality do you feel that they have done the right thing or is there something still missing?

AKH: Because of the last election, what the Government is doing now is to win more votes.

However, commitment is still not very strong to increase the income levels. To do that, the first thing you need to do is to do away with subsidies which are not efficient and have led to a lot of leakages.

The Government seems not determined to do away with the subsidies even though Pemandu has a plan to reduce subsidies over a certain period.

If the subsidies are not removed, how can the Government increase the salary of people.

I’m not worried about inflation as you can proportionately increase the income of the people to counter that.

In China, the annual income increase is over 20% a year for the prime areas. If the people have higher disposable income, they can afford the higher prices.

The other thing to do here is to do away with foreign workers, who are pressing down on overall wages.


Latching back to the general election of 2008, how does an election play out in the mind of stockpickers and how will the stockmarket react ahead of the next general election?

KG: When you compare the stock market with previous general elections, except for 2008, there has been a stockmarket rally 2 weeks prior to an election.

Only in 2008 there was a contraction pre and post election. Since 2008, where the opposition has learnt to come together and form their own pact, the downside risk has increased for the incumbent.

Talking about plans, everything is perfect on paper but the willingness of implementation is just not there.

The Government has to put in a more concerted effort in assuring that they are serious about what they are saying but I think the political will is lacking and the Government is more inclined to delay subsidy cuts or it removal into the distant future.


When you start to look at Malaysia, one of the strengths in the past is political stability,. Now there are changes in political momentum seemingly month by month. Is it good or bad from a stock pickers’ perspective?

GA: From a stock picker’s perspective, we don’t take into account any politics at all or macroeconomic fundamentals.

We are purely a bottom up fund manager. Our portfolio is based on various criteria including company quality and valuations.

For somebody who lives here, it’s very amusing to read the things people would say to get votes in the newspapers, I suppose it is the same all over the world.

Now the country have a serious opposition, which I don’t think existed when I first came here in 1990 but I’m not worried.

I am more worried about the economic future of the world. Liberalisation is the way Malaysia should go. Having two parties is a good thing as it would increase the pressure on the Government to move towards further liberalisation.


Malaysia is famed for being a managed economy, but there is realisation that market forces need to come to the fore and drive Malaysia forward. Is liberalisation the way forward or more government intervention is needed?

LSY: We say the right things – liberalisation, bringing taxes down, taking away subsidies, but in reality we do the exact opposite.

You can’t control market forces when you want the economy to be liberal, and these would add up to more competition.

The US economy is so entrenched within the global economy and although you don’t like it, you still have to live with it.

On that note, I’m a bit more optimistic about the Americans than the Europeans, as the Europeans have this problem of Greece which is bankrupt. It will never be able to repay its loans.

Is it more economical to save Greece or to let Greece go?

If Greece goes, it will be very messy. I have thought through it, and it won’t stop at Greece - there is Ireland, Portugal, Italy and Spain which are genuinely sick.

They will still continue to kick the can down the drain to buy time, however, the time they can buy is getting shorter and shorter.


Where will always be good shares?
SBW: Based on that prognosis, what is your outlook for the next one year or 6 months at least when it comes to stocks?

AKH: There will always be good shares around. Market uncertainties have caused prices to drop, so for those who are waiting to buy, there are opportunities.

I am talking about stocks with fundamentals, those which are mostly domestic oriented, not export-based. If share prices have fallen, just accumulate, don't buy all at one go. But you can start buying as it is difficult to predict just how low prices will go.

Government policies may change. There may be developments in the Eurozone, things may change for the better and confidence will be lifted. The trick is to spread out the buying.

LSY: What was a good company yesterday because of uncertainties may no longer be good. For example, the first class plantation stocks. They are good companies but the monkey there is the price.

If palm oil falls below RM2,000 per tonne, most of them will be in trouble.

The whole board game has changed and this is confusing everyone.

If you're looking at the fundamental assumptions, they are shaky today because of uncertainties.


In the current scenario, how do you react then?

GA: We don't really. Aberdeen is really boring.

We visit as many companies as we can and we pick out those with the best quality according to our criteria and then the next factor we look at is valuations.

What Tan Sri said is correct because every business at some stage does not work anymore. If crude palm oil falls below RM1500 per tonne and with the way costs have gone up, then the whole thing won't really add up.

That said, we are fund managers and if we are asked to manage an equity fund we will stay fully invested until the clients says he wants to take the money out.

As far as the market is going and the way the ringgit is crashing it's not that different than in 2008 when I think the ringgit fell 11%, we are now down about half of that.

I think the rebound is going to be significant. It is a question of patience and time horizon. It just surprises me that so many people have been really short-term and panic.


Khalader, you recommend stocks and have you given up the game of promoting stocks given the current scenario?

KG: We have been advising our clients to sell and go heavy on cash, we believe that this down cycle is just beginning.

During the last 2 corrections of 2001 and 2007, we corrected 46% and 47%, and if we look at our recent bottom of 1,310 - we have only corrected about 16% from the all time high.

Where fundamentals are concerned, until the Greece problem is settled or at least a conclusion on how to deal with it is achieved, I believe that there will be more downside, or at least markets will still be volatile.


Are we in a situation where companies are in a far better position to withstand the current crisis since the last one in 2008?

KG: Almost all houses have cut their earnings forecasts in the last quarter when the numbers came in below expectations.

I believe earnings downside will be more visible in coming quarters with lower demand and an increase in costs especially so when people start trimming their expenses.

This is especially for those with overseas exposure. The crisis is going to affect their bottom line.

LSY: There is no question. If you look at surveys that have been done the world over, especially in the US and Europe, if you look at the pie and distribution of that pie between profits and wages, the piece that is assigned to profits has increased quite significantly to the extent that its become a social problem. Capital is taking too much from the pie.

However, I've yet to see a good correlation between how an economy performs and how a company performs.

GA: I don't know when these will all turn but the fundamental conditions for things to get worse are not here yet.

AKH: Currently, we are facing confidence problems. People are sceptical that the European Union can solve its problem, When things turn bad, all analysts downgrade, before that all were upgrading.

But look at the world interest rates. The US has pledged to keep rates low for the next 2 years and that is bullish for markets.

Currently there are uncertainties and after this is over, people will come back to their senses. Eventually money has to go somewhere. Because of low interest rates, it is going to create another round of asset inflation.

If interest rates are at 8% or 10%, a stock price earnings (PE) of 12 times many not be cheap but if interest rates are at 0%, a stock with a PE of 12 times is very attractive.

A lot of hot money will come from US after this round and I think this time round, the markets will go even higher.


If we look at the economies of the eurozone and US, they have problems Asia is not faced with but money is flowing back to their countries in times of trouble instead of staying where the action is. Please comment.

LSY: I am a professor and one of the real problems with text books is that no text book talks about adjustments.

Assumptions are instantaneous.

If you look at stocks, I am only an investor. I don't recommend; the market fell I think badly last week and then you look at the stocks, those “good” companies, they have fallen RM2, RM3. Look at them, there is no trading volume.

The fall I think is because of capital withdrawals. I'm a buyer but I can't get the stocks that I want to buy because of this.


Mid-cap stocks? What are the prospects? Malaysia being a defensive market, are blue-chips still the first-pick?

KG: If you expect the market to fall further, blue chips will be hit.

The problem now is more severe than in 2008. Then, corporations had problems, so countries came and bailed them out.

Now countries are having problems so who is going to save companies?

It will be a double whammy this time round if things are not solved at the country level and eventually this will hit the blue chips.

I will propagate a bottom out approach. Look at counters which have good recurring incomes like those with concession earnings and consumer companies. But there is no pure defensive stock in a downtrend.

AKH: I don't think Malaysia will go into recession but growth will probably be slower.

Look at those companies with better fundamentals when stock-picking. Defensive stocks are for a different group of investors. They are for long term people like funds.

Higher beta stocks attract shorter term investors, maybe hedge funds.


If you look at what is going to happen, will it be worse than 2008? In terms of economic turmoil, uncertainties, damages to economies?

LSY: Only worse off in the following sense that most countries don't know what to do and have run out of bullets. Last time, people knew exactly what needed to be done.

Today fiscal policy is practically dead so you're left with monetary policy and even then you are only left with QE3 but that can't give you employment.

QE3 will take a while to come out and US politicians are for the first time meddling in monetary policy.

Secondly, I think the Chinese are making a lot of noise about QE3.

The market is the market, very little to do with economic fundamentals, most times it is sentiment and confidence.


What are your stock picks?

AKH: I don't have any specific stocks.

We look at stocks with fundamentals and if there is a recession or slowdown, their profits will be less affected.

At the same time, the price of these stocks must have fallen more than the overall market.

We like stocks like Malaysia Building Society Bhd and Dialog Group Bhd where their business will continue in spite of a US recession. The profit visibility for such companies is very good.

We might buy some of the construction companies that have obtained contracts that ca last them 4 to 5 years. But if their prices do not drop, we will move on.

Cyclical stocks will be most affected in times of trouble.

General construction, property, technology and most of the export oriented firms will be at risk.

KG: I will prefer to go for stocks with more domestic exposure.

We like stocks like QL Resources Bhd where we believe the business is stable.

I also like Gamuda Bhd where when the MRT project kicks off, they will get the tunnelling portion.

GA: The way we manage stocks is to see that they meet our quality and valuation criteria,

After we put those stocks in our portfolio, sometimes, if it goes above its model weight because it performs very well and get to valuations that we think is excessive, we tend to top slice that and use the money to invest in those companies that we like in our portfolio that have not performed.

LSY: At this time, I think REITs are an interesting group of shares, They give you a decent rate of return and capital gain, if you're lucky.

I also have a soft spot for good plantation shares.

I think CPO prices will come down but I don't think they will come down to such an extent that those companies will lose money. In order to lose money, it has to come to RM1,500 per tonne.

I also like some consumer shares. But as I said ... patience.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: The Star Online
Publish date: 01/10/2011

Your 10 questions with Tan Teng Boo

The Star Online > Business
Saturday October 1, 2011

Your 10 questions with Tan Teng Boo

What is your investment philosophy?

Value investing but in an eclectic manner and with an Asian perspective. It has elements of Warren Buffett, Philip Fisher, Benjamin Graham, John Templeton and my own elements as well and these are best described and understood by comparing them to the remarkable qualities of a bamboo. Maybe my investing style can be termed “Bamboo Value Investing”.


Is there an investor you admire greatly and why?

Can I say, myself? If yes, the reason isthis: Other fund managers need only focus on managing their funds. In my case, besides managing funds over RM1bil on a local and global basis, I have a number of companies and a fast growing business to manage at the same time. Yet, I have consistently beaten all the benchmark indices, whether Malaysian or globally based. Hard to find another parallel, really.


Why are there no more close end funds like yours on Bursa Malaysia?

Unless the fund manager has an excellent track record, it is very hard to promote and list a close-end fund like icapital.biz Bhd on Bursa Malaysia. It has to go through an IPO process. Most importantly, it is not so profitable for fund management companies to promote and list close-end funds because there are no entry fees or front-end loadings or commissions or bid/offer spreads. Also, investors in Malaysia are not familiar with closed-end funds.


What is your opinion of the state of equities and when will be a good time to go in?

Since April/May 2011, I have been bearish on equities globally, including that of Bursa Malaysia. My bearish views have not changed one iota. The best times are when there are screaming buys. The stocks are so undervalued that they actually scream at you to buy them. I am patiently waiting for these.


How did you get into the investment business?

Performance in this business is very easy and objective to appraise – either you beat the market or you don’t. No politics, no rationalising. I find the cold objective appraisal close to finding absolute truth. I am a truth seeker.

Also, there are many investors losing money in the stock market. In 1989, I started i Capital, our weekly investment publication, with investment education in mind.


What are your concerns about the Malaysian economy?

Poor productivity, efficiency and competitiveness and that there are no policies to tackle these urgent problems.

The New Economic Model would have been a great solution but self-interested Malaysians have shot it down.

You started investing in Malaysia and now have branched out globally. How do you balance between Malaysia and the rest of the world?

With some difficulties. I rely a lot on SIA and have to use Changi as my hub. If only KLIA and MAS can be really world-class and the KLIA is not the furthest airport in the world from a city. Imagine, the KLIA is even further than Narita is from Tokyo (that is why Haneda Airport is becoming more popular than Narita). With the availability of the Internet, with our operations in KL, Singapore and Sydney, these help.

Also, as a value investor, I am not an active investor and do not need to sit in front of the Bloomberg, etc. And with lots of practice and strong support from my wonderful and committed staff, being a global citizen can actually be fun, educational and very meaningful.


You once said you made more money investing in Malaysian shares than Buffett did from 1998 to March 2009. Can you still make more money from Malaysian shares or is there more profit elsewhere?

Yes, my returns are higher than Warren Buffett’s and also higher than John Paulson’s flagship fund. There are great investing opportunities to be found on Bursa Malaysia, as there are some great companies listed there. However, based on sheer numbers, you cannot beat the investing opportunities available from the 40,000 plus listed companies globally.


Any advice to young people wanting to buy stocks or grow their savings?

At Capital Dynamics, our training focuses on developing the right attitude and character and focuses on the long-term. For example, our investment analysts do stuff that are superficially not related to investment research or analysis. Many quit. So, why such an approach? The technical skills like financial modelling are easy to acquire but the right mind set and the right character are not taught in universities.

To be successful, having the right attitude and character are the two most important qualities. Building a successful career is like successful investing. Patience, determination and discipline are three very important qualities. By tasking our investment analysts to do supposedly unrelated stuff, we are developing them to have patience, determination and discipline. Many young people lack these, do not realise it and learn about it too late.


How do you see the global problems playing out and what advice can you give people to protect their money in such turbulent times?

The problems facing the global economy are not easy to deal with. Europe and America are just so eager to blame everyone else except themselves. They work 40-hour week but want to have wages equal to 80 hours plus all the generous benefits from the government.

When work-life balance tilts so much to life instead of work, who foots the bill and how can the economies expand?

The bearish turbulence globally would still continue for some time to come but in such volatile times, there are also wonderful investing opportunities. Investing in our low risk, high return funds would be perfect.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: The Star Online
Publish date: 01/10/2011

YTL Chieftain's Frank Discourse on Telco, Power and Property



YTL Corp CEO Tan Sri Francis Yeoh talks about his new 4G network, 'Yes', discussing coverage, subscribers and growth targets and network expansion, and when he expects 'Yes' 4G to turn profitable. He also talks about risks such as price wars and compatible devices.

He then talks about how important Yes 4G is to the YTL group in terms of building the business and setting a growth path; how it seems to be a very different path to its historical strategy of pursuing stable, income-driven businesses like water and power.

He then moves on to its new investment, an oil shale-cum-power generation project in Jordan and talks about whether this and the 4G investments alter YTL's risk profile; the fact that these new businesses are capital-hungry and front-loaded, in terms of whether it will hurt YTL Power's dividend policy.

He then talks about whether there are plans to to buy more power generation facilities, offers his views on Malaysia's Renewable Energy plans, and whether oil, coal and gas fired plants can ever be totally replaced.

He then discusses YTL Land, in particular the impact of MRT on its land in Sentul, KLCC-Bukit Bintang & KL Sentral, as well as its plans to transform into a regional developer.

As well, he talks about the much-discussed property boom and demand, prices, outlook and borrowing costs.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube / bfmvdo
Publish date:03/04/11

Understanding exchange traded funds

Understanding exchange traded funds
How they work, the benefits and risks involved and how they will fare in the weak economic outlook
by Carmen Lee and Lim Siyi 04:46 AM Oct 01, 2011

Equities have experienced a highly volatile session this year. In August alone, the Straits Times Index fluctuated about 17 per cent from a month's high of 3,227 to a month's low of 2,681.

This volatility was a result of the uncertainty in the global environment where several prominent themes continued to drag down market sentiment, including the slowdown in the United States and the euro zone. The dimmed investment outlook has led to an outflow of funds out of Asian equities with most countries experiencing a net outflow of funds this year, including in Singapore.

With the muted outlook ahead and the widely anticipated lacklustre performance of global equities this year, are exchange traded funds (ETFs) likely to offer a similar or different outcome?

ETFs are open-end index funds and can be traded like stocks on most exchanges. ETFs gained popularity in the last few years as they allow investors to gain exposure to different markets, commodities and sectors. According to Blackrock, the size of the market has grown rapidly from around US$105 billion (S$136.1 billion) in 2001 to more than US$1.4 trillion in July.

In Singapore, there are 84 listed ETFs. Of these, the iShares MSCI India and SPDR Gold Shares are the most actively-traded ETFs. The former offers an exposure to the India market and the latter as the name suggested offers an exposure to gold. These instruments are popular proxies to both, given the restrictive nature of investments in India and the relatively high cost of owning physical gold.

Recently, there has been increasing attention on synthetic ETFs, especially in view of the more complicated structures of these instruments and the key features and risks.



How synthetic ETFs work

Synthetic ETFs involve the use of derivative instruments, that is, swap contracts where the benchmark index returns are obtained in exchange for either cash payments or the returns of a separate basket of stocks bought by the manager. The ETF provider obtains cash investments/subscriptions from investors in the primary market and uses the cash to pay the swap counterparty on a subscription basis, in exchange for the returns of a designated benchmark index. The ETF provider then issues ETF shares to the investor in proportion to their investment amount.

To mitigate counterparty risk and to minimise it to a pre-determined level for example, 10 per cent of net asset value, the swap counterparty has to post collateral that is pledged to the ETF. In the event of a default, the collateral is protected as it is ring-fenced away from the swap counterparty's creditor claims. The ETF will then claim the collateral and use it to reimburse investors.

Another scenario is one where the ETF manager purchases a separate basket of securities in the open market and exchanges its returns for the returns of the designated benchmark index. The basket of securities bought by the ETF is agreed upon under a set of "Investment Restrictions" listed in the prospectus so investors will know what type of investable instruments are acceptable.



Benefits of synthetic ETFs

Most European ETFs employ the use of synthetic replication and will use either scenarios described above. The biggest benefit is its "zero" tracking error (less fees and expenses) since the index returns are promised by the swap counterparty. It also allows access to a wide range of securities that are difficult to trade, and ETFs using these methods are easy to develop and to bring to markets.



Risks of synthetic ETFs

As the index returns are contingent on the swap counterparty fulfilling its obligation, the ETF is subject to counterparty risk. To mitigate these concerns, there are mechanisms in place to protect ETF investors from events of counterparty defaults.

While these mechanisms help to protect ETF investors in the event of a single counterparty default, there still exists a possibility, although remote, that several counterparties, such as investment banks, could fail at the same time. Should this worst-case scenario occur, it may potentially pose serious contagion and systemic risk to the financial markets, beyond ETFs.

In such an event, the collateral pledged by these counterparties will be seized by the Trustee to protect the ETF. However, its investors may still be susceptible to losses, especially if the values of the collateral decrease as a result of broad market sell-off reactions to these bank defaults. ETFs are ultimately participants in the broader market, and while ETF collateral management has evolved to mitigate risks, no plan is without flaws and ETF investors could potentially lose their entire investment value.



Understanding the risks involved is key

Synthetic replication may have its flaws but investors should not focus solely on the negative aspects and worst-case scenarios. Instead, they should explore, educate themselves and understand the swap-based ETF structure as well as the safety nets in place before determining if such an investment vehicle is suitable for them and their risk-tolerance levels.

A plus point from the recent criticism is that it has encouraged ETF providers to be more forthcoming with their index tracking methodologies and risk management procedures. Current guidelines like that of UCITS are aimed at providing a high and consistent standard for ETF issuers to adhere to, and advertently push them to even higher levels of disclosure and transparency.

Given the complexity and risks involved with ETFs investment, we advise investors to fully understand the investment methodology, risk management policies and benefits of ETFs before investing in these products.



Carmen Lee is the head of OCBC Investment Research and a member of the OCBC Wealth Panel. Lim Siyi is an investment analyst at OCBC Investment Research.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: TODAYonline
Publish date:01/10/2011

High end home prices slipping: Savills

High end home prices slipping: Savills
04:46 AM Oct 01, 2011
SINGAPORE - The private home market may have continued to enjoy robust turnover in the third quarter of this year but the prices of luxury apartments appear to have peaked.

According to a report by property consultancy Savills, the average per sq ft price for non-landed high-end private homes dipped 2 per cent to S$2,243 for the first two months of the third quarter from S$2,286 in the second quarter of this year. In the super luxury segment, prices slipped marginally - by 0.4 per cent to S$3,667 psf from S$3,681 psf.

Compared to the prices at the start of the year, high-end homes commanded 0.7 per cent less, while super-luxury prices rose 8.4 per cent. Savills said the price gaps between the current and previous price peaks in Q4 2007 narrowed further, with high-end and super-luxury home prices being just 6.9 per cent and 0.4 per cent from their peak levels, respectively. Still, Savills warned that "the outlook for the luxury home segment remains clouded" as high-end properties saw anaemic sales in the first two months of Q3. In July, only 122 units were transacted in the Core Central Region and sales were almost halved in August with 65 transactions.

Performance for the rest of the private home market was mixed. In the mid-tier non-landed homes segment, prices dipped marginally - by 1.4 per cent to S$1,193 psf in the first two months of Q3 from S$1,210 psf in Q2.

Mass market apartment prices continued to defy gravity, rising 2 per cent to S$932 psf in the first two quarters of Q3 from S$913 psf in Q2. Savills said the increases were observed across all mass-market segments - new sales (2 per cent), sub-sales (5 per cent) and resales (2 per cent).

In July, a total of 1,398 new private homes were sold, an 18-per-cent increase from the previous month. Including executive condominiums (ECs), the number of new home sales rose by a more significant 41 per cent month-on-month to 1,966 units. In August, primary sales (excluding ECs) remained steady at 1,348 units.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: TODAYonline
Publish date:01/10/2011

SGX, LSE in joint bid for LME: Source

SGX, LSE in joint bid for LME: Source
04:46 AM Oct 01, 2011
HONG KONG - The Singapore Exchange (SGX) is tying up with London's main bourse to make a joint bid for the London Metal Exchange (LME), a source told Reuters yesterday, as the world's largest metal market seeks a suitor in a deal that could be worth £1 billion (S$2.03 billion).

The consortium has appointed a bank to advise it on the bid, said a source who has direct knowledge of the deal, with the auction expected to attract rival offers.

Both the SGX and the London Stock Exchange (LSE) are coming off failed merger attempts amid a flurry of exchange auctions that were prompted by loss of market share across the industry to alternative trading venues.

The joint bid underscores the ambitions of both exchanges to diversify into the fast-growing space of metals trading, as traditional businesses of equity and derivatives trading faces increasing competition.

SGX and LSE declined to comment. The source declined to be named as the discussions were confidential.

SGX, led by experienced dealmaker Magnus Bocker, has been trying to raise the profile of Asia's second-largest listed bourse and compete against its larger rival in Hong Kong. Mr Bocker was the man who stitched together seven Nordic bourses to create OMX, later sold to NASDAQ . But his attempts to buy ASX was rejected by the Australian government five months ago.

"To a certain extent, there is some necessity for SGX to try to grow both organically and by M&A. LME has proven over the years to be a credible exchange. If anyone is able to acquire the platform, then it will be able to use the platform to expand its own business," said Mr Roger Tan, managing director at Singapore's SIAS Research.

"This is a joint bid, so I guess SGX would have learned some lessons from the ASX bid," he added.

LSE, too, had to face defeat in its pursuit of the Toronto Stock Exchange after a consortium of Canadian banks launched a counter offer.

But that has not deterred LSE from attempting more deals. Just this week, LSE CEO Xavier Rolet won the backing of LCH Clearnet's board for his planned €1 billion euro (S$1.76 billion) purchase of Europe's largest independent clearing house.

A reason LSE may be interested in acquiring LME is to protect the revenues it is buying through its purchase of LCH Clearnet.

The LME, a big user of LCH Clearnet, has recently eyed setting up its own clearing system. And if that happens, LCH Clearnet stands to lose a large chunk of the margins it holds, about 50 per cent, according to one source.

The LME, the world's biggest market for industrial metals, said last week that it was considering a sale, with an expected price tag of around £1 billion. Chief executive Martin Abbott told Reuters on Thursday that more than nine potential suitors have shown an interest in acquiring LME.

The SGX-LSE combination is expected to face competition from other LME suitors, including CME Group, the largest futures exchange in the United States, IntercontinentalExchange and United Kingdom-based broker ICAP, according to sources.

The LME, established in 1877 above a London hat shop, accounts for 80 per cent of traded volume in global metal futures transactions. It saw record trading volumes last year of 120 million lots, equivalent to US$11.6 trillion (S$15.1 trillion) and 2.8 billion tonnes of metal.

LME's pre-tax profit last year fell 28 per cent to £12.5 million. Still, the exchange's pre-eminent position in the world of metals trading will make it a much sought-after asset. And any deal would have to be accepted by 75 per cent of shareholders, which include Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and trading firms including Amalgamated Metal Trading and Metdist.

SGX shares closed down 1.3 per cent yesterday, giving it a market value equivalent of about US$5.6 billion. LSE shares were down 1.4 per cent intraday, valuing the company at about US$3.5 billion. REUTERS


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: TODAYonline
Publish date:01/10/2011

China manufacturing eases

China manufacturing eases
04:46 AM Oct 01, 2011
BEIJING - China's manufacturing sector contracted for a third consecutive month in September, data showed yesterday, suggesting that the world's second-largest economy is not immune to global headwinds.

The HSBC purchasing managers' index (PMI) was at 49.9 last month, unchanged from August. Still, the final reading for HSBC's China PMI was stronger than the flash reading of 49.4 published last week.

The 50-point level demarcates expansion from contraction in factory activity.

"This implies that although the lagged effects of credit tightening will continue to cool industrial activity in the months ahead, there is little need to worry about a sharp slowdown," said Mr Qu Hongbin, China economist at HSBC.

HSBC believes a PMI reading of as low as 48 in China still points to annual growth of 12 to 13 per cent in industrial output and a 9 per cent expansion in gross domestic product.

But to the discomfort of Chinese policymakers, yesterday's data showed input costs rising rapidly, which could imply upward pressure on consumer inflation. Factory inflation in China quickened markedly in September, with the sub-index for input prices climbing to a four-month high of 59.5 from 55.9 in August.

China's consumer price index pulled back to 6.2 per cent in August from a three-year high of 6.5 per cent in July, earlier data showed. REUTERS

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: TODAYonline
Publish date:01/10/2011

NOL: Another rights issue on the cards? (KE)

Neptune Orient Lines Ltd
Share price S$1.135
Up-to-date in 60 seconds
Background: Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) is a Singapore-based global shipping and transportation company. Its shipping line arm, APL, provides container shipping, terminal services and intermodal operations. Its logistics business, APL Logistics, engages in international end-to-end logistics services and solutions.

Recent development: NOL’s August freight rate slid by 20% YoY to US$2,559/FEU but was flat MoM. This came in below market expectation as a result of (1) weaker rates in the Asia-Europe trade and (2) increased mix of short-haul intra-Asia route. However, shipping volumes of 235,200 FEU remained relatively robust, led by growth (+8.0% YoY) in the major trade lanes.

Our view
Huge capex commitment. NOL has approximately US$2.9b of vessel installment payments until 2014, which will be financed through a combination of bonds and committed ship financing. As of 1 July 2011, it still has about US$1.0b of the US$1.5b MTN programme yet to be utilised. Based on our ballpark estimates, net gearing will increase to about 0.65x in FY12.
Another rights issue on the cards? In June 2009, NOL did a major 3-for-4 rights issue (RI) whereby Temasek agreed to sub-underwrite the entire proposed RI. Management believes the net proceeds of about US$0.96b have helped to strengthen the group’s balance sheet at the time (net gearing before the equity raising was 0.45x), as well as provide financial flexibility to acquire any potential distressed assets.


Inexpensive valuation but can wait further. While the stock currently trades at a relatively undemanding 0.76x FY11E P/B, we do not think it is time to buy yet given the uncertain economic outlook. During the 2008 global financial crisis, it has traded briefly to a trough P/B of 0.4x.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Kim Eng Research
Publish date:30/09/11

OKP: King of the road (DMG)

OKP HOLDINGS
Target S$0.80
BUY Initiate
Price S$0.555
Previous –
52 week H | L Price (S$) 0.685 0.451
King of the road

OKP Holdings (OKP), the only listed road specialist in Singapore, is set to ride on the nation’s building boom, benefiting from major public works like the S$6-7b North-South Expressway. OKP’s strategic tie up with China Sonangol (CS), which owns 14.2% of OKP, is a gateway to more potential projects. OKP has already secured the building project of luxury condominium Angullia Park from CS, the developer. With a cash hoard of S$98.6m (net cash of 31.9S¢ per share) and a financially strong partner like CS, OKP’s already strong construction earnings may be given an added boost with property. With a record gross order book of S$433.3m, FY11 looks set to be a banner year, with earnings likely to leap over 25% YoY. At current price, OKP trades at 8x prospective P/E, which is a justified premium to peers at ~6.5x, due to its leading position as a road specialist and its heafty cash position. Net of cash, OKP’s FY11 and FY12 P/E falls to 3.4x and 3.1x respectively. Initiate with BUY and TP of S$0.80, based on a target P/E of 6.2x (net cash).

A leading road specialist; strong gross order book of S$433.3m. As at end Aug, OKP has a healthy order book of S$433.3m (+39.8% since Feb 11), spread across 13 projects. The contracts will run till FY14, lending some visibility to its earnings. Solid earnings over the years have allowed the contractor to build up on its cash hoard. With spare capacity to take on sizable projects and strong financial position, OKP is in the right position to ride on the road in Singapore.

Potential earnings booster from property development. CS has acquired Amber Towers and we think OKP could be slated either to jointly develop the property together, and/or go in as a contractor. We have not factored any earnings from its role as a potential developer.

Valued at a justifiable premium to peers. On the back of strong construction demand, we estimate earnings to hit S$21.3m in FY11. Based on net cash target P/E of 6.2x FY12 earnings, we derive a TP of S$0.80 (upside of 44.1%).

COMPANY BACKGROUND
OKP Holdings Limited (OKP) is a home-grown infrastructure and civil engineering specialist in the construction of airport runways and taxiways, expressways, flyovers, vehicular bridges, urban and arterial roads. It has recently, developed a niche in the oil and gas-related infrastructure for petrochemical plants and oil storage terminals.

Founded in 1966, OKP first started its operations as a sole-proprietorship, known as Or Kim Peow Contractor, handling projects each valuing less than S$50,000 in the public sector, involving the upgrading of mud tracks in the rural parts of Singapore to asphalt roads. Subsequently in August 1977, OKP broadened its scope to include the construction and maintenance activities of both roads and road-related facilities that it has today. Eng Lam Contractors Co Pte Ltd and OKP Technical Management Pte Ltd were later incorporated, to take over the road construction and road maintenance activities of Enc Nam Contractors & Company (a partnership between Mr Oh Enc Nam and Mr Oh Kim Poy) and to provide technical management services to road construction respectively.

In 2006, OKP diversified into the Oil & Gas sector and had since secured and completed numerous projects in the sector, forging a strong presence in the industry. Some of the notable projects include one relating to the S$750m Universal Terminal (a massive petrochemical storage facility) on Jurong Island as well as the civil works relating to ExxonMobil’s second multi-billion dollar petrochemical complex.

OKP was upgraded to the Main Board of the Singapore Stock Exchange in July 2008. Subsequently in 2009, it had a breakthrough and secured its single largest public sector project in its 44-year history – a $119.3m contract from the Land Transport Authority (LTA) to widen the portion of Central Expressway (CTE) from Pan Island Expressway (PIE) to Braddell Interchange. Since then, OKP has been developing its two core business segments, Construction and Maintenance, in both the public and private sectors.

In line with its strategy in exploring overseas opportunities, one of OKP’s wholly-owned subsidiary, OKP Technical Management Pte Ltd, entered into a joint venture agreement with CIF Singapore Pte Ltd, a subsidiary of China Sonangol, an overseas conglomerate engaged in oil, gas and minerals investments and explorations, crude oil supply and national infrastructure construction projects. The latter has lately become OKP’s substantial shareholder. Or Kim Peow Contractors (Pte) Ltd also entered into a joint venture agreement with Soilbuild Group Holdings Ltd (previously listed on SGX) to form Forte Builder Pte Ltd. The latter was then awarded the $83.5m contract from China Sonangol for the construction of luxury Angullia Park condominium in Orchard Road.

Today, as a Grade A1 (Or Kim Peow Contractors Pte Ltd) and A2 (Eng Lam Contractors Co. Pte Ltd) contractor in the Civil Engineering (CW02) category, the group tenders bids for civil engineering and infrastructure construction projects, contracts for the maintenance of roads and road-related facilities, and building construction-related works in both the public and private sectors and had been ranked one of the best 200 firms in the Asia Pacific region on the Forbes Asia’s ‘Best Under A Billion’ List.

OKP has a strong track record in civil engineering works in Singapore, as reflected by the list of completed projects and projects awarded (refer to Appendix 2 and 3 respectively). The company has garnered a list of impressive clientele, both from the public and private sectors. Some companies it has serviced previously include Foster Wheeler, Worley Parsons, Far East Organisation and Rotary Engineering. From the public sector, it has won contracts from Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore, Jurong Town Corporation and Urban Redevelopment Authority, among others. Through its subsidiaries, OKP possess Building and Construction Authority (BCA) A1 and A2 licenses for CW01, which allows it to tender for contracts of unlimited value and S$85m respectively. There are 43 companies in Singapore with an A1 license as compared to >100 prior to the industry consolidation in the 1990s.

INDUSTRY OUTLOOK
We are positive on the road works space in Singapore, with all the mega projects and routine maintenance/ upgrading works announced by the government. The upcoming projects will keep civil engineering companies busy for a while.

Where it all began - a growing population. The growth in the population of Singapore, as well as the growing affluence of the people, have led to greater traffic on Singapore roads. According to The Census of Population 2010 “Advance Census Release” report released by the Singapore Department of Statistics, Singapore’s total population was 5.08m as at end June 2010, a 66.7% surge since 1990 and 26% leap from a decade ago.

We note that the number of permanent residents grew by at least 6% per year between 2005 and 2009. In addition, there was strong growth in the number of non-residents during the peaks of 2007 and 2008, when growth was 15% and 19% respectively.

Population increase + growing affluence = more private vehicles. With more people on the island, the total number of vehicles on Singapore’s roads has increased 36.5% over the last decade. Most notably, we see cars and station-wagons, which made up 61.8% of total vehicles in 2010 (55.8% in 2000), up from 386.8k in 2000. The additional 197.6k vehicles represents a 51.1% growth since 2000. Second in line was goods and other vehicles, adding another 22.8k vehicles on the streets (+16.9% between 2000-2010), followed by motorcycles and scooters which added 16.2k (+12.3%). Although rental cars made up only 1.4% of total numbers of vehicles in 2000, the category grew the fastest over the 10 year period, adding 4909 vehicles or equivalent to a growth of 58.2%. This supports our view that in spite of an established public transport system, car ownership remains high on the “wish list” among those residing in Singapore and this trend may continue to persist. Thus, while the growth in immigrants have slowed to a only 1% in 2010, we believe the “open-door” policy to foreigners will continue as low fertility rate among citizens and the economic drive to transform Singapore into a global city continues. Hence, we believe this trend in population growth and the resultant higher road usage will continue to be a source of increasing demand for roads; which spells good news for road builders.

Slower traffic with more vehicles on the road. Based on LTA’s statistics gathered between 2002 and 2010, congestion within the CBD/ arterial roads has increased and the reverse has occurred for expressways. The average speed during peak hours of 8-9am and 6-7pm within the CBD/arterial roads has increased by 13.8% to 28 km/hour between 2002 and 2010, possibly due to the number of new ERP gantries that sprung up during the corresponding period – from 45 to 69 (+53.3%). The situation is the reverse for expressways, where speeds slowed by 3.9% to 62.3 km/hour. We believe this is positive for road builders like OKP as it implies that LTA has to widen existing roads or expressways to cater for growing congestion on Singapore roads. Some recent/ ongoing projects include the 1) widening of the Central Expressway from Pan Island Expressway to Braddell Interchange (OKP was awarded the
S$119.3m contract), 2) widening of Tampines Expressway (TPE) and Jalan Kayu (OKP secured the S$61.7m project in April this year) and 3) widening of PIE between Clementi Ave 6 and Adam Road, to be completed by end 2011, Oct 2014 and 2014 respectively.

The solution - more roads, flyovers and other facilities. With more residents, there is a need for higher connectivity, implying more roads and public transport infrastructure (like the MRT system) need to be in place. We can see LTA attempting to ease increasing traffic congestion with increasing road length as the population grows. Road length jumped 20.7% between 1990 and 2010, from 2798 km to 3377 km. Road length in lane-kilometer grew 22.7% to 8895 km during the same period. Corresponding to the growing road length, more facilities for vehicular flyovers (+20% between 2000-2010), bridges (+4.9%) and underpasses and tunnels (+55.6%) have also been constructed. Thus, civil contractors like OKP will stand to benefit from this growing demand for civil engineering services.

Upcoming mega road projects
1) The North-South Expressway
The Government has given the approval for the alignment of the North-South Expressway (NSE) between Admiralty Road West and Toa Payoh Rise. The NSE, announced under the Land Transport Master Plan, will be Singapore’s eleventh expressway. One of the most challenging engineering undertakings to date, the NSE will serve the North-South corridor, bringing faster travel from residential estates such as Woodlands, Sembawang, Yishun, Ang Mo Kio, Bishan and Toa Payoh to the city centre.

To meet the long term growth in travel demand generated by developments in the North and North-Eastern sectors of Singapore, the dual three-lane carriageway will consist of a combination of viaduct and road tunnels to provide a new high speed road link. The NSE will also connect to existing expressways, such as the Seletar Expressway (SLE) and major arterial roads like Marymount Road. The NSE is estimated to be 15.9 km long and expected to cost S$7-8b. Industry players are expecting LTA to call for tender in 2H 2012 and construction of the project to commence in 2013. This multi billion-dollar project will give civil works contractors something to look forward to.

2) Construction of New Dual Four-Lane Road in Bukit Brown
With the future developments in the central and northern parts of the island, LTA estimates traffic demand along Lornie Road to increase between 20% and 30% by 2020 and that would be beyond the current capacity of Lornie Road. Therefore, to alleviate the congestion currently experienced along Lornie Road and the PIE during peak hours and to cater to expected growth in future traffic demand, the LTA will construct a new dual four-lane road in Bukit Brown. Construction of the new road is expected to begin in early 2013 and will be completed by 2016. While it is still early to estimate the cost of the project, our channel checks reveal that similar to the NSE and other massive projects like the Marina Coastal Expressway, the entire project is likely to be broken up into several packages and each package is estimated to be worth ~S$50-60m.

INVESTMENT MERITS
Not just king of the road. OKP is one of the leading road contractors in Singapore, in terms of capacity and technical competency. This is reflected by the shrinking number of bidders as the tender value for projects increases. According to management, a S$30-40m contract would usually draw 10 to 15 companies tendering. Projects valued at ~S$100m typically attract about five to six bidders. For the widening of CTE, OKP was the only contractor that submitted a bid (which it eventually secured at S$119.3m). On the back of its strong track record in roads works, management estimates OKP’s success rate of securing tenders is >50%. However, OKP is not just a leader in road works; it has a strong track record in other civil engineering works as well. This is reflected by its recent sizable S$46.8m contract win in Aug from national water agency PUB, to reconstruct the open canal between Zion Road and Kim Seng Road. The Zion Road Bridge and Kim Seng Road Bridge will be reconstructed and three new underpasses crossing Zion Road and Kim Seng Road will also be constructed.

Strong net cash position with no debt. OKP has a clean balance sheet, with practically no borrowings (only S$1.3m of finance lease relating to equipment purchases) and is in a net cash position of S$97.2m or equivalent to 31.9S¢ per share. With cash making up 57.5% of its current share price of 55.5S¢, we believe that this could provide some support to the stock. In FY10, OKP paid out 62.4% of its earnings (equivalent to 9% dividend yield).

Deep pockets of strategic partner, China Sonangol. In April 2009, OKP teamed up with a strategic partner, China Sonangol International (S) Pte. Ltd. (China Sonangol), by issuing 15m new shares at a price of S$0.45 per share to the latter. China Sonangol is a subsidiary of China Sonangol International Limited, an overseas conglomerate that specialises in oil, gas, and minerals investment and explorations, crude oil supply and national infrastructure construction projects with headquarters in Hong Kong. Following a bonus issue on a one-for two basis and a rights issue of warrants on a one-for-four basis, China Sonangol bought another 15m shares from OKP’s executive directors and shareholders at S$0.66 per share. After exercising the warrants and the second batch of 15m shares purchase, China Sonangol’s stake in OKP is raised from 9.23% to 14.15% currently. We believe the selling price of the shares at S$0.66 per share (a premium of 16.8% to the closing share price prior to the announcement on 19 Aug) indicates the confidence China Sonangol has in the growth of OKP’s business.

Potential pipeline of projects from China Sonangol. China Sonangol’s venture into the Singapore property market has resulted in at least one new building contract for OKP. The latter is currently involved in the construction of a luxury condominium at Orchard Road, Angullia Park. This S$83.5m project is undertaken by Forte Builder Pte. Ltd., a joint venture with Soilbuild and was awarded by a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Sonangol Land Pte Ltd, the owner of the development site. In April, China Sonangol acquired Amber Towers along Amber Road in an en bloc transaction. This could present some business opportunities for OKP, either in the form of construction project wins and/or as a co-developer with China Sonangol. In Indonesia, China Sonangol Land acquired the Entertainment X'nter (e'X) lifestyle shopping mall located in Menteng, Central Jakarta in Nov 2010. With a total leasable area of approximately 159,618 sqf, the mall is currently enjoying an occupancy rate of close to 100%. China Sonangol Land has plan to re-develop the 203,707 sqf site into a mixed-use development comprising of residential, office and serviced apartments in early 2013. We believe China Sonangol’s global presence may allow OKP to extend its geographical footprint and achieve geographical diversification in terms of revenue streams.

Public sector catalyst – new road projects. As detailed in the industry outlook section, we believe the Singapore government would try to reduce congestion and in so doing, continue to spur construction activity through various projects such as the widening of expressways, adding new lanes along Lornie Road leading to PIE & the construction of NSE. These are all sizable infrastructure projects out for grabs. With OKP’s strong track record, we believe it would be able to secure some contracts from the above mega projects.

Record gross order book of S$433.3m, but can still do more. OKP has a robust gross order book of S$433.3m, to be fulfilled by FY14. We understand this is the highest level reached since FY06. However, this does not imply that OKP’s capacity is stretched to the limit. We understand that OKP has the capability to take on more jobs - up to twice its current gross order book.

High collectability of receivables. Since the majority of OKP’s revenue are derived from public sector agencies (88% of sales in FY10), the receipts of its receivables are fairly certain and there is an unlikely need to provide any material bad debt, even during a downturn. We understand that LTA is relatively prompt in its payments, typically paying OKP within 45 days post receipt of invoices.

Able to pass on all costs increases to clients. OKP is fairly insulated from fluctuating raw material costs since most government contracts now include the BCA’s indices for raw materials. OKP employs 744 employees as at Dec 2010, of which 89% are involved in site operations and the remaining 11% are management/ supervisory and finance and administration staff. 80% of its staff are foreigners working on site. With the government clamping down on the number of foreigners entering Singapore and hiking foreign workers’ levy in recent years, there are concerns of OKP being hit by rising labour costs and a shortage of both skilled (such as experienced engineers) and lower skilled workers (whose job scope requires more manual labour and on site). Rising labour costs have been mitigated by OKP’s continual efforts to train their workers. In addition, OKP targets to do 40% of all project work with its own staff, thus helping to keep rising labour costs in check. Hence, labour increases due to the levy hikes is on average, <1% of total labour cost of a project. Thus far, OKP has managed to pass on all the cost increases to its customers by increasing tender prices.

Any MRT project secured is a bonus. OKP has set up a team of experienced staff to bid for the MRT projects. However, we understand that pricing for projects so far had been extremely competitive. Hence, we consider any MRT project win a wildcard that would be a boost to earnings and a potential re-rating catalyst.

INVESTMENT RISKS
LTA holds back projects. We think that the government is unlikely to withhold the various infrastructure projects as the growth in population and growing number of cars on the road and congestion in the MRT trains are all still causes for concern. In fact, during downturn the government may roll out more projects or push out more projects simultaneously, with its pump priming efforts to stimulate the economy.

Lumpiness of revenue. Due to OKP’s nature of business, its revenue is dependent on the number of contracts secured and the percentage of completion of contracts at any point in time. Hence, there will be lumpiness in its revenue and earnings. It is not just the construction segment that is lumpy and driven by contract awardments, the maintenance segment of its business is also one-off in nature and secured through the open bidding process.

High geographical concentration of revenue. 100% of OKP’s current projects/ order books are from Singapore. However, we do not think that it is a significant risk since the government has already announced the various mega infrastructure projects (like the MRT line, NSE) to be developed. While OKP does not have a significant presence overseas, it is not new to jobs abroad. It has completed the extension of an airport runway in the Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands worth US$8.7m between Jan 06 and Jan 07. In addition, we believe OKP would be selective in the type of work they would perform, taking on jobs where they can value-add and not compete with its competitors on the margins front, for instance in project management.

Land scarce Singapore. In Singapore where land is limited and road infrastructure relatively developed, it is not difficult to foresee that the time may come when no more new expressways/ roads can be built and maintenance work will eventually form the bulk of road work jobs available. However, with mega projects such as the NSE stretching till 2020, we believe that the medium term outlook remains positive for civil contractors. Moreover, OKP is a civil engineering company that has a strong track record in civil works other than constructing roads. It has demonstrated its ability in construction-related areas through its involvement in the Angullia Park project.

Potential write down of value of property. Should OKP have carried on with its plans to be a property developer and a downturn in Singapore’s property market persists, there may be a write down in the value of property in the future.

EARNINGS FORECASTS
With OKP’s 1H11 revenue coming in at S$61.1m (-17% YoY due to the timing of projects’ completion), we estimate FY11 revenue to hit S$146.8m, of which S$121.8m is derived from construction and S$25.1m is from maintenance. This represents 82.9% of topline attributable to construction and 17.1% from maintenance, in line with last year’s trend.

To tap into the oil and gas sector, OKP entered into a joint-venture with Rotary Engineering. It bid and won the Universal Terminal contract worth S$0.7m on Jurong Island in May 06. Subsequently, OKP secured a number of contracts on Jurong Island, one of the more significant ones being the S$40m awarded by Foster Wheeler Asia Pacific Pte Ltd and WorleyParsons Pte Ltd in Jul 07. Thus, revenue from its oil and gas sector was boosted to ~S$55m in FY07, making up ~80% of total revenue and the remaining arising from construction sector. Since then, revenue from the oil and gas sector has declined, contributing ~20% of top line in FY10 and construction making up the rest. We believe construction is likely to remain the key contributor to OKP’s revenue until the oil and gas’ sector next up-cycle, or its property development contribution kicks in.

Gross profit margins (gpm) for the construction and maintenance projects secured for projects in its current order books varies, with construction margins averaging between 15- 20% and maintenance margins hovering between 12-15%. We have assumed a gpm of 24% in FY11. We think that this is reasonable in light of 1H11’s gpm being lifted up by nonrecurring variation orders in certain oil and gas contracts, coming in at 32.6% (1H10 gpm was 16.8%)

We believe OKP’s FY11 earnings would still be driven predominately by construction rather than maintenance segment. Between FY06 and FY08, construction contributed ~90% of OKP’s earnings, reflecting the impact of the significant investments poured into the oil and gas sector. This trend is now normalising, as we can see from FY09’s and FY10’s percentages, which saw construction earnings dropped to 69.9% and 77.8% of the respective years’ profits, down from the previous highs of 88.8% to 93.4% between FY06 and FY08.

We have not included any contribution from potential property development and MRT wins into our earnings estimates, as we view those as earnings boosters rather than making up the bread and butter of OKP earnings stream. Based on our assumptions, we project that OKP’s earnings would hit S$21.3m in FY11 and S$23.7m in FY12.

We do not expect OKP to be overly aggressive with its capital expenditure spending as it currently has ample capacity to take on more jobs without having to invest substantially in machinery. In addition, OKP’s own in-house equipment service centre in Sungei Kadut would ensure that its equipment is well maintained and the useful life of machinery is prolonged. We understand that 20% of OKP’s equipment is fully depreciated and still in use. We estimate S$2.9m per annum for the next two years in new equipment additions.

We expect OKP to grow its strong net cash position in FY11, with net cash per share coming in at 37.8S¢ (1H11: 31.9S¢). This assumes no land purchases by the company. While OKP has no formalised dividend policy currently, its dividend payout ratio since FY06 has ranged from 20.6% to 62.4% with an average of 36.9%. In recent years, the minimum dividend declared was 1.5S¢ per share in FY06 and has been increasing each year to a record 5S¢ declared last year. This was in tandem with a record year of earnings and translates to an attractive yield of 9%. We forecast that OKP would likely be able to maintain its dividend payout level on the assumption that it does not require its cash to further its property development business.

VALUATION
OKP has traded at a historical average of 13.5x P/E since its listing in 2002. If we were to exclude the strong market run in 2006-07, the average P/E comes off to 9.8x. Currently, it is trading at a prospective P/E of 7-8x. Stripping out the cash, the company is trading at a mere 3.4x FY11 and 3.1x FY12 P/E. It is further supported by strong yields of 9%. With a positive outlook for both the industry and the company, we initiate coverage on OKP with a BUY recommendation and a TP of S$0.80 (based on 6.2x net cash FY12 P/E). This implies a potential upside of 44%.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: DMG & Partners Research
Publish date:30/09/11

Friday, September 30, 2011

How Sophisticated Is The Investing Public?

Ringgit & Sense, 29th September 2011:

Mr Tan Teng Boo, Managing Director of Capital Dynamics Asset Management evaluates the Malaysian investing public on the level of sophistication it has.







Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.bfm.my
Publish date: 29/09/11

FSM School: What is the PE ratio and why you need to know



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube / Fundsupermartdotcom
Publish date: 21/08/11

德国批准EFSF方案 欧债危机暂时解除

德国批准EFSF方案 欧债危机暂时解除
Created 09/30/2011 - 19:32

(柏林30日讯)德国国会周四批准更为强大的欧洲金融稳定机构(EFSF)提案,让欧洲走向危机边缘的脚步往回撤。

但如今欧元区面临更大的挑战。

金融市场目前正预期希腊可能违约,并要求更为深远的措施以避免从雅典展开的危机扩散至欧洲及银行业者。

德国下议院以压倒性的比数通过4400亿欧元(1.9兆令吉)EFSF基金扩权,使之可以进行预防性的放贷,协助银行业者重组资本,并可在次级市场买进陷入困境国家的公债。

欧元区领导人在7月21日所达成的协议旨在解决危机,做法是向债务缠身的希腊提供第二轮援救,援助的资金部分由民间债权人提供,同时还将提供进一步的手段,避免危机向西班牙和意大利这些欧盟更大的经济体蔓延。

但该协议未能阻止意大利和西班牙的借贷成本飙升,欧洲央行不得不在8月购买两国公债进行干预。

希腊问题也并未得到解决,该国再次未能达到赤字削减目标,距离违约更进一步。

反对声浪普遍

欧盟一位不具名的高层官员说:“即便是更加保守的人士也日渐意识到,7月21日的计划已经是揭过去的一页,我们现在需要更进一步。”

在德国备受关注的投票结果公布后,欧元和欧洲股市上升,避险的德国公债下跌。

德国公众对进一步援助的反对声音非常普遍。

但分析员指出,金融市场和欧盟以外国家仍希望欧盟决策者对眼下这场债务危机做出更全面的回应。

欧盟执委会对德国批准EFSF扩权表示欢迎,并相信在10月中旬之前,欧元区17国都将完成正式批准程序。

塞浦路斯周四亦支持EFSF扩权,使得批准该计划的国家数量达到12个。

剩余国家中,只有在斯洛伐克获批有些政治难度。

尽管德国投票通过了EFSF扩权方案,但是西班牙和意大利的局势表明,欧元区在应对主权债务危机时仍面临严峻挑战。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 南洋商报
Publish date:30/09/11

索罗斯献计避陷大萧条

索罗斯献计避陷大萧条
Created 09/30/2011 - 19:32

(伦敦30日讯)索罗斯在《金融时报》撰文指出,欧洲当局须迅速采取行动,重新取得对金融市场的掌握,否则可能出现第二次大萧条。

索罗斯呼吁采取三个大胆步骤来平息市场忧虑,让欧洲有时间策划经济增长战略,三个步骤包括:

1. 欧元区政府必须原则上同意一项新条约,依据条约成立欧元区共同的财政部。

2. 欧洲的大银行必须听从欧洲央行指示,提供临时担保,并永久性地重组资本。欧洲央行要指导这些银行维持信贷额度和未偿贷款水平,同时密切监控他们自身账目的风险。

3. 欧洲央行要让意大利及西班牙这类国家暂以极低成本再融资。

索罗斯指出,如果没有这样测策略,将无法解决债务问题。

索罗斯指出,现在的内部讨论中,大多数提议是要让EFSF杠杆化,使其成为一间银行或保险公司,或者用它充当特殊目的工具(SPV),而实际上,这些提议都可能只会起到短期的纾缓效果,此后带来的失望情绪会让金融市场陷入困境。



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 南洋商报
Publish date:30/09/11

美國大規模查會計違規‧美國上市中企股價暴跌

美國大規模查會計違規‧美國上市中企股價暴跌
Created 09/30/2011 - 19:15

在美國股市掛牌的中國企業週四(29日)股價全面挫低,因市場傳出,美國司法部已經對中國企業的會計行為展開調查。

百度和新浪及優酷重挫

其中又以網絡股受創最深,百度(Baidu)週四股價重挫12%,新浪(Sina)與剛掛牌的影音串流網優酷(Youku)更分別重挫9.7%與22%。

展訊通信跌13%,搜狐跌了10%,盛大互動娛樂下跌7%。

很多公司的股價幾週來已經因類似的問題而受到重挫。這其中一些公司在國內還需面對政治風險,而且外界對中國經濟增長力度的擔憂也越來越大。

中國網絡股大跌,引發SEC的放空限制,想放空股票的交易員必須等到股價比前一天收盤水平下跌10%之後才能出手。

美國證券交易委員會(SEC)執法部主任庫薩米表示,美國許多地方的聯邦檢察官,正對許多中資企業的違規會計行為進行調查。

當被問到圍繞中資公司會計醜聞的大規模調查為何還沒有提出刑事指控時,曾擔任聯邦檢察官的庫薩米說,隨著時間的推移,我認為大家會看到司法部的更多介入。

他拒絕透露遭受調查的企業名單,但暗指某些可能涉及民事甚至刑事訴訟。

投資機構Schaeffer’s Investment分析師德特烈說,上述企業股票暴跌是很能理解的,因為先前許多投資人買進只是為了投機,而非真正看好基本面。

事實上過去一年來,SEC已持續進行調查,但受限於中國法規,美國監管機關難以獲得較全面的文件。

SEC與美上市公司會計監管委員會,下個月將在華盛頓與中國對應官員會面,就與中國審計公司聯手進行調查展開第二洽商。



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 星洲日報
Publish date: 30/9/11

歐債風暴:聚焦下波救市措施

歐債風暴:聚焦下波救市措施
Created 09/30/2011 - 19:30

在德國立法者同意擴大歐元區援助資金規模後,歐洲領袖現在將焦點轉向舒減債務危機的下個步驟。

隨著歐盟執委會預期4千400億歐元(5千990億美元)的歐洲金融穩定機制(European Financial Stability Facility,簡稱EFSF)10月中旬前到位,歐元區財政首長下週將研商加速制定永久紓困基金,提供更多資本和處理債務違約的工具。

身價億萬的私募股權公司WL Ross & Co.董事長羅斯指出:“我不認為這項紓困案在因應歐元區本身方面綽綽有餘。我認為紓困案規模應以‘兆’元起跳,而非‘億’元。”

倫敦Joh.Berenberg Gossler & Co.首席經濟家史密丁指出,歐洲官員目前也正在研擬包括如何利用EFSF等措施。他說,可能會出現“希臘債務經修正後、今年稍後有序地違約,立即性希臘銀行資本重組,歐洲擔保希債重整,及有條件地(對希臘)財務支援”。

由於外界對希臘恐無法避免違約的憂慮加深,希臘總理繼華沙與歐盟主席見面後,30日將至巴黎與法國總統薩爾科齊會面。

助防止市場疑慮再升高

經濟學家認為,扮演歐洲經濟火車頭的德國通過EFSF擴充案,讓歐元區官員得以思索該如何進一步幫助希臘,並在投資人憂慮澆熄歐股16個月來最猛3日漲勢的同時,防止市場疑慮再度升高。目前的選項包括設法加深希臘主權債的減記程度,為EFSF增添更多銀彈,以及擬定保護銀行業的計劃。

德國選民對於一再紓困感到不耐,執政聯盟內部也對批准更多金援出現雜音,甚至威脅在陣前倒戈。不過國際間對希臘違約將傷害歐元區核心國家,並讓全球經濟再陷衰退的憂慮日漸升溫,EFSF擴充宣告破滅的風險也隨之降低。

目前有可能的追加措施,包括進一步槓桿操作EFSF;提前1年甚至更早讓永久性的接替機制上路;重新審議7月達成的第二輪希臘紓困協議,提高金融業的挹注資金;以及為歐洲銀行業鋪設安全網,在違約無可避免時發揮作用。

擴充EFSF需要歐元區17國全數通過,其中11國已批准,包括比利時、法國、德國、希臘、愛爾蘭、意大利、盧森堡、葡萄牙、斯洛維尼亞、西班牙以及昨天表決過關的芬蘭。

除德國外,愛沙尼亞也將表決,奧地利排定明天,德國國會上議院屆時也將針對EFSF進行辯論。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 星洲日報
Publish date: 30/9/11

外圍地雷連爆‧建築最慘重‧馬股9月跌4.15%

外圍地雷連爆‧建築最慘重‧馬股9月跌4.15%
Created 09/30/2011 - 18:30

(吉隆坡30日訊)歐美債務拉警報,全球經濟雙重衰退風險令股災捲土重來,馬股9月續在熊掌蹂躪下流血難止,單月失血高達60.14點或4.15%,促使第三季也大失血,猛挫12.16%。

外圍惡耗接踵而來,令上半年打破“六絕”的馬股慘遭四面埋伏,歐美債務陷困與全球經濟情況持續惡化,令8月股災覆水難收,抵銷經濟轉型計劃與全國大選等利好。

綜指一度挫3年
最大單日跌幅

馬股9月表現如坐過山車,隨投資者信心潰跌與基金經理大舉拋售,頻頻跌破關鍵心理水平,失守1400點後,更在1300點瀕臨危機,週一一度下殺55點至1310.53點,創下自2008年10月以來最大單日跌幅。

儘管馬股自週二歐債疑難可望出現新方案後隨全球股市反彈,但漲潮卻來去匆匆,今日早盤雖因銀行併購風等催化劑再度攀高,惟午盤後隨外圍對歐債危機轉謹慎由起轉跌,站不穩1400點之余,一度跌11.82點至1375.64點,終場報1387.13點,全天跌0.33點。

基於投資者對希臘主權債務危機以及意大利和西班牙等成員國可能受到的波及持謹慎態度,投資者在距離德國投票表決歐元區紓困基金擴大案幾小時前選擇避險,亞太股市漲跌互見,馬股也無法倖免。

大市如臨大敵,9月各領域指數也全軍覆沒,建築指數成為單月最大挫幅指數,失血超過10%,顯示經濟轉型計劃無法為劣勢力挽狂瀾;經濟放緩導致出口岌岌可危,工業產品指數跌幅慘重。

金融指數因國內銀行隨外圍銀行掀起估值調整,與因產業需求放緩顯著受衝擊的產業指數,同樣成為主要拋售對象,單月皆跌近8%。

第三季失血192點

馬股7月表現雖可期,然而,8月卻隨外圍情勢告急急轉而下,單季論,同樣是悲歌,富時綜指單季暴挫191.94點,賣盤四處流竄,拋壓蔓延至中小型股,富時全股與創業板指數各大跌1444.68點與600.23點。

其他領域指數一樣排山倒海,單月領跌的建築指數,再以高達24.10%跌幅成為全場領跌指數,產業指數也跌幅驚人,急挫超過20%。工業產品與礦業指數跌超過17%,緊接在後。

10月料波動
抗跌為宜

馬股10月初期雖有望在歐債迷霧暫時撥開下趨穩,但因熊爪恐隨時現身,預算案難掀起火花,重臨1500點展雄風的希望渺小,後期還可能再度跌穿1300點。

志必得證券研究主管馮廷秀直言,9月杪的小反彈,不意味全球股市雨過天晴。

因歐債危機並未結束,未來兩週在部份歐洲國家同意擴增歐洲金融穩定機制(EFSF)紓困基金下,有望令馬股趨穩並略攀高,但10月整體展望依然熊氣罩頂。

“馬股首兩週有望攀升至1450到1470點間,但若想站上1500點,恐怕挑戰艱鉅,反而可能在兩週後出現回調,並重臨9月的低點1310點,甚至跌破1300點。”

馮廷秀解釋,一些歐元區同意擴大EFSF紓困基金,不意味其他小國也會就緒,更重要的是,意大利的債務壓力也是潛在炸彈。

預算案小漲潮料不持久

他認為,即使預算案前有望帶動馬股出現小漲潮,惟漲潮料迅速放緩,因整體缺乏新催化劑。

另外,大華繼顯研究維持馬股年杪目標1490點,即使預見馬股最終往“南”走的可能性高,卻不認為馬股將挫至2009年低水平,因主導因素不同。

“歐洲金融危機的惡耗不如2009年的美國次貸危機般,來得突然且涉及範圍大。”

此外,大馬2009年經濟成長與企業盈利,分別萎縮高達1.7%與10.2%,但目前企業盈利與市場回酬仍較當時高,內需也足以支撐盈利表現。

內需提振經濟
股市或逃大劫

儘管馬股前景濛塵,興業研究相信,若政治領袖即時採取行動壓制債務危機,仍有望令經濟與股市逃過一劫,畢竟全球貿易未暴跌。

興業預見,政府加速落實經濟轉型計劃,加上消費力穩健的推波助瀾下,有望抵銷海外出口疲弱衝擊。

儘管如此,興業下調明年經濟成長預測,自4.5%減至3.6%,今年料增長4.3%。

然而,成本飆升與賺幅受挫下,今明年富時綜指淨每股盈利成長估計各達4.1%與7.8%,比較之前預測為6.6%與14%。

基於全球經濟雙重衰退的風險提高,加上歐美債務危機短期難解,興業根據2012每股盈利11.5倍,下調富時綜指目標,自1450點調降到1140點。

如全球情況在6至9個月內持穩,興業根據2013年盈利13倍,調降明年杪的富時綜指目標,從1580點減至1385點。

隨全球經濟依然灰頭灰臉,興業相信現階段趁低吸購仍過早,全球阻力強與情況可能惡化,興業建議投資者採抗跌投資策略。

“現有情況下,成長潛力合理的高回酬股可能更穩健,表現有望超越大市。”



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 星洲日報
Publish date: 30/9/11

CapitaMalls Asia gets nod to list on Hongkong exchange

CapitaMalls Asia says it has received approval-in-principle from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (HKEx) today to list on the Mainboard of HKEx. The listing is expected to take place on 18 October 2011. The stock code for the company is 6813.

CapitaMalls Asia is one of the largest listed shopping mall developers, owners and managers in Asia by total property value of assets and geographic reach.

CapitaMalls Asia says the listing document relating to CapitaMalls Asia’s listing by introduction in Hong Kong is now available in the main offices of China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities, J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific), Computershare Hong Kong Investor Services, as well as on the websites of HKEx, Singapore Exchange (SGX) and CapitaMalls Asia.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.theedgesingapore.com
Publish date: 30/09/11

Raffles Education sets up Malaysian unit to operate American school

Raffles Education Corporation, the private education provider in the Asia Pacific region, says it has set up of a new subsidiary company in Malaysia known as Raffles K12 Sdn. Bhd. to operate an American System school that will enrol students from Kindergarten to Grade 12 level.

Raffles K12 has an issued and paid-up capital of RM200,000 ($81,380) which is 69% held by Raffles Education Malaysia, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Raffles Education Corp and 31% held by Bumiputera joint venture partner, Ringgitvale Sdn. Bhd.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.theedgesingapore.com
Publish date: 30/09/11
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
  • Selected Indexes 52 week range

  • Margin of Safety

    Investment Clock

    World's First Interactive Investment Clock