Saturday, September 24, 2011

曾渊沧:阳光总在风雨后 股民不必太灰心

曾渊沧:阳光总在风雨后 股民不必太灰心
2011年09月23日08:59 曾渊沧
美国联储局终于决定放弃再推QE3而改为推出购长债沽短债的新招,决定公布后美股急跌,道琼斯指数周三下跌2.49%,美股下跌,影响香港股市也下跌,而且跌得更重,恒指一口气跌4.84%,跌幅是美股的一倍,综观昨日亚太区股市的反应,港股的跌幅几乎是亚太区之冠,很明显地是有大鳄在大量沽空以获利,散户早已撤退了。留下来的也只是小注地赌波幅。

今后,我们要面对的是没有QE的日子,没有QE,就没有新的热钱流入股市,我们还得面对欧债随时「爆煲」的危险,看来看去,没有一丝好消息了?

有的,不要太灰心,没有QE之后,中国政府不必太担心新的热钱流入,目前的紧缩银根政策相信会放宽,当然,不会是马上放宽,我估计还得等通胀数据出现下降的趋势才会放宽。

面对没有QE的日子
谈起通胀,昨日港府公布最新的通胀数据,8月份消费物价指数又上升了0.5%,达6.3%,政府发言人说其中一项高涨的项目是租金,租金的上涨实际上是一个滞后的数字,因为香港一般住宅租约为两年。

目前新签的租约与两年前比较,与一年前比较,肯定会大幅上升,近一段日子,楼价开始下跌,尽管跌幅不算大,但已经使到不少想买楼的人不敢买,不敢买楼就不得不租楼,多人想租楼租金就涨了。

前日,我放了一张较新的摄影作品到腾讯网的微博。照片是清晨拍的,乌云满天但有一丝耀眼的阳光从乌云中透出,我希望以这张照片与股民共勉,不必太灰心。

我手上不少股票已持有10年、20年,挨过了一个又一个熊市,担心甚么?只要不欠经纪行钱,股价升升跌跌只是纸上富贵,纸上游戏。

作者为大学教授

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 腾讯
Publish date:23/09/11

曾渊沧:没有疯狂 哪来熊市

曾渊沧:没有疯狂 哪来熊市
http://www.sina.com.cn
2011年08月08日 12:00 新浪财经
新浪财经讯 8月8日消息,市场担忧美国经济滞涨以致双底衰退的风险,避险情绪急增,加上在忧虑欧债危机或会扩散,引发恐慌性抛售,港股受拖累下全面下挫。恒指一周大泻1,494点或6.7%至20,946点,国指则跌939点或7.6%至11,435点,日均成交大增24.8%至817亿元。城市大学MBA课程主任曾渊沧博士认为,熊市均发生在疯狂炒作时,目前更像是牛市中期的大调整,

曾渊沧称,上周五,香港,或者说全世界都发生了一场股灾。股灾由美国在上周四开始,幸好,也只能算是小股灾,比1987年那场大股灾小得多。

不过,更多人担心的是:小股灾是不是熊市来临的先兆?

  熊市均发生在疯狂炒作时
我比较乐观,我观察过去数10年的股市 ,没有一次的熊市是在恒指预期PE仅12倍左右发生,每一次的熊市都是发生在人人疯狂炒作的时候。但是,过去两年,股市从来没有疯狂过,去年的5月、6月,恒指比目前还低。因此,我认为目前更像是牛市中期的大调整,只是,我不知道这个调整的深度会有多大。

  现在投机追沽风险不少
过去几天,多家上市企业公布半年业绩,其中一些业绩很不错,展望也不错,这些企业的股价相信已经开始吸引一些长期投资者入市购买。因此,现在投机追沽的风险也不少。当然,如果你没有长期投资的打算,也不好捞底,免得你晚上睡不好。现在,最重要的是信心,是能处之泰然的信心,是排除恐惧感的考验。

信心是甚么?信心是你相信股价最终是要反映企业的利润,如果企业盈利丰厚,股价迟早会回升,会反映其价值。要做一个成功的投资者,我们所需要的不单单是分析能力,预测能力,我们更需要一个健康的心理状态,乐观的心态,平静的心,能视股价的升跌为游戏。

上星期五,我接到很多朋友的电话,都是问我怎么办的电话,他们都曾在高价买股票。这一次的牛市从2008年10月开始,当时恒指11000点,之后回升,2009年3月,恒指再跌至11000点附近,但是,很少人能在低位入场,他们多是在股价上升了一段时间之后才入场。还有,过去一年,个别股票的股价走势相当两极化,一些如航运股是一浪低于一浪,内银股也不例外,内房股则很参差,有的表现不错,有的不断下跌,整体而言是跌的多,升的少。但是,又有一些板块如水泥股、澳门赌场股、香港零售股,股价则一升再升,与恒指整体的表现无关,因此,也有人问我是不是该换股,卖掉长跌股改长升股?

  如有压力宁可亏损也应减持
如果你满手都是高价买入的股,你应该先问一问自己,继续持有这些股票你晚上能睡得好吗?你白天能吃得下饭吗?这才是最重要的,这比预测明日股价走势更重要,如果有压力,宁可亏损也应该尽量减持,减到你不感到压力为止。

  我没有压力,过去两年,我重复地告诉大家,我早在2008年年底及2009年年初就入市,之后我就很少再买股票。有时有新股发行,会适量地买一些,买得最多的是AIA(01299),此股在上市前就被认定会被选入恒指成分股,成为蓝筹股。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 新浪财经
Publish date:08/08/11

曾淵滄教路:要解決歐債危機 先置諸死地而後生

曾淵滄教路
要解決歐債危機 先置諸死地而後生
歐債問題不是新的問題,而是一個已經困擾了歐盟兩年的問題。

歐債問題實際上是美國金融海嘯後遺症之一,爆發金融海嘯之後,全球經濟面臨崩潰、大蕭條,於是全世界的政府都以增加開支來對抗經濟衰退,問題是,增加開支的錢從哪裏來?

對沖基金狙擊
美國、中國都沒有問題,可以印鈔票來進行,歐盟的問題最大,因為歐盟不是單一的國家,有十多個國家,歐盟中有些國家統一用歐元,也有一些不用歐元,統一用歐元者問題更大,因為沒有統一的歐盟的歐元債券,於是便任由個別國家自己發行債券籌錢,可是歐元區每個國家的國力不一樣,每個國家的福利水平也不一樣,競爭力更是差得很遠,最後導致不同國家發行的國家債券的價值差得很遠,德國國力最強,德國國債受歡迎,希臘國力最弱,負債率最高,希臘國債最不受歡迎,已變成垃圾級,於是引來大量的投機者狙擊,情況與一九九七至一九九八年的亞洲金融風暴一模一樣,這個世界出現了大量靠金融狙擊而賺取暴利的對沖基金,利用超大的槓桿比率放大了他們的狙擊力量,再利用評級機構,傳媒為幫兇,將壞消息放大,以達到沽空狙擊的目的。

論發行國債,目前美國可以不斷地發行國債而沒有問題,美國舊的國債到期就發行新的國債來集資還舊債,但是,希臘政府已經不可能再靠發行新國債來還舊債,舊債到期怎麼辦,如何還?只好私下借,向歐盟借,向德國、法國借,向中國借,向國際貨幣基金會借。

可是,長貧難顧,借來借去,時間一個月又一個月過去,問題始終無法解決,也因此,歐債問題就長時間地不斷引爆,不斷地為市場製造更多的炒作理由。

終極辦法:希臘違約
問題能解決嗎?
能的,當年亞洲金融危機還不是解決了!當年亞洲金融危機是如何解決的?是香港特區政府出手買股票對抗對沖基金,是馬來西亞政府下令不許馬來西亞貨幣自由兌換,是俄羅斯政府宣布違約不還債,這群投機的狙擊手最後自己損失嚴重,面臨倒閉,狙擊只好停止了。

今日的歐債危機,說到底也是狙擊,投機所引起的,解決的方法就是希臘政府違約,不還債,置諸死地而後生。

希臘違約有甚麼問題?
實際上就是另一個雷曼兄弟倒閉事件罷了,希臘違約,不少銀行,特別是法國的銀行會蒙受巨大的損失,會面臨倒閉,但不是世界末日,到時候法國政府自然會出手拯救法國的銀行,正如美國政府在二○○九年出手拯救美國的銀行一樣,法國畢竟還是富有國家,是強國,法國政府發行的債券仍有市場。

輯錄自 421期 Book A 【曾淵滄教路】


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 東周刊
Publish date:21/09/11

Weekend Comment Sept 23: Grocer Sheng Siong offers resilience from storm

REGIONAL STOCKS hit new lows as the big R word looms although many say the recession is already here. Hong Kong had its worst week since 2008 when the Hang Seng Index closed last Friday at 17,668.8, down 1,249.1 points for the week. The Straits Times Index hit its lowest since May 2010 when it ended at 2,702.03 points on Friday, down 2% for the week.

During periods of market turmoil like this, defensive stocks that are nicely sheltered from global volatility will naturally be thrust into the spotlight. One such stock is supermarket operator Sheng Siong Group.

In a report issued today (Sept 23), OCBC Securities initiated coverage on this stock with a “hold” rating and target price of 43 cents. The company, which runs a chain of 23 supermarkets and three wet market stalls, is among the leading supermarket chain operators in Singapore. It was listed on Aug 16 with an IPO price of 33 cents. It went as high as 56 cents on Aug 31 before coming down to close at 43 cents on Friday.

“As supermarkets participate in the sale of consumer staples, they generally exhibit some resilience against economic downturns. Given the necessity of these items for daily living, demand remains relatively inelastic regardless of economic cycle,” writes OCBC Securities analyst Lim Siyi in the report.

For one, during the recent financial crisis, all three major supermarket operators here -- NTUC Fairprice, Dairy Farm and Sheng Siong -- managed to achieve “decent” revenue growth, even as overall consumer expenditure dropped, with consumers eating out less often and cooking more at home.

“Even with penny-pinching consumers during periods of economic slowdown, supermarkets would still be able to record sales as consumers would substitute more expensive items for cheaper alternatives,” adds Lim.

Perhaps of greater interest to investors is that Sheng Siong is apparently more efficiently run compared to its main competitors. According to an earlier study done by research firm Frost & Sullivan, Sheng Siong was able to achieve the highest revenue per floor area, based on 2009 revenue.

For each square metre of floor space, Sheng Siong brought in $17,085 in sales. By contrast, NTUC Fairprice, the largest supermarket chain, managed $11,924 per sqm and Dairy Farm, which runs the likes of Cold Storage, Giant, and Shop N Save, achieved only $8,456 per sqm. Sheng Siong’s new Mandai Link Distribution Centre, which was partly funded by proceeds from the listing, is expected to help improve its operational efficiency too.

What makes this stock attractive is not only the resilient nature of its revenue. The company has several strategies and ways it can achieve growth. For example, higher contribution can be expected from the fresh produce segment. Currently accounting for 30% of Sheng Siong’s revenue, fresh produce – the meat, fish, prawns and vegetables – are sold with a relatively higher gross profit margin of between 21% to 30%.

“Naturally, management hopes to achieve higher contribution from this segment going forward. Coupled with their expertise in handling fresh produce and the new distribution centre where it can handle larger quantities of fresh produce, we expect to see increased revenue contribution (of more than 50%) from this segment within the next few years,” writes Lin.

Next, Sheng Siong is expected to expand its physical presence. “An expansion of its store network is essential to drive future growth and we believe that the local market is able to support additional stores without over-saturation,” says Lin, who has identified several densely-populated areas consisting of 45% of total Singapore’s population where Sheng Siong has yet to establish a presence. These include Sengkang, Hougang and Toa Payoh.

However, to be sure, as the company has recently shut down two outlets (one at Tanjong Katong Road and Ten Mile Junction), revenue this year is expected to drop 10%. Margins, meanwhile, can be maintained at current levels, says Lin. Furthermore, two other new outlets (at Woodlands Industrial Park and Upper Thomson Road) will be opened, which will likely pick up the slack and raise revenue growth by 12% for FY2012.

On the whole, OCBC Securities sees Sheng Siong as a stock that has strong fundamentals and a healthy balance sheet. “Given the dismal economic outlook, Sheng Siong still represents a defensive play into domestic consumption demand.”


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts:www.theedgesingapore.com
Publish date:24/09/11

昨跌22点 海指失守2700点

新加坡海指昨天再跌22点,刺穿2700点水平,创下19个月来最低收盘水平。

  美联储局对经济前景的悲观评估,及最新公布一系列数据一再提醒投资者全球经济前景不乐观,令全球股市乌云盖顶。美国三大股指周四收盘跌幅均超过3%。

  美国周四公布的当周初请失业金人数虽然小幅回落,却仍高于预期。中国预示制造业采购经理人指数不理想,德国和法国周四公布的相关指数也下降。

  摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)亚太指数昨日于东京时间下午5点30分已跌1.7%至373.02点,全周跌幅可能达到10%。

  如今全球市场弥漫着担忧的情绪,澳大利亚Pengana Capital公司墨尔本基金经理斯罗德斯说:“股市的急于抛售,反映世界正走向衰退的可能性很高。全球决策者能为缓解目前局势所做的其实有限,因为需要实施财政紧缩政策。”

  海指昨天低开高收,早盘以2679.36点开市,一度下挫到2659.01点。午盘后投资者趁低进场吸购,成功为海指扶盘,闭市时报2698.80点,全天跌21.73点。

  尽管如此,这个收盘水平仍是自去年5月26日以来的新低。昨天的交易更加热络,交易量近17亿股,交易额超过18亿元,下跌股有345只,上升股为168只。

  成分股以12只上升股对16只下跌股。

  星展唯高达证券表示,如果2008年环球金融危机重演,种植股将从现有水平下挫20%至80%。分析师将丰益国际的目标价从6.25 元下调到5.60元,印多福农业资源从1.75元下调到1.35元。

大华继显研究认为当银行和房地产的表现有所起色时,海指有望在明年第一或第二季回弹。
  反映出19种商品价格的路透/Jefferies商品指数,昨天跌4.4%。相关商品股来宝集团跌5分报1.455元,奥兰国际跌6分报2.39元。

  吉隆坡12月的原棕油期货价格跌1.9%。相关股金光农业资源跌1.5分报66分,丰益国际跌7分报5.09元。

  Swiber控股起2分报52.5分。集团争取到1亿5500万美元的合约。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date:24/09/11

投资者恐慌抛售 金价跌破1700美元

新加坡综合电)全球经济可能陷入衰退的担忧加剧,引发一股商品抛售潮,黄金现货价格昨天晚上跌破每安士1700美元,白银价格重挫10%。
  交易商把金价下跌归咎于投资者恐慌性抛售。为了缓和市场,二十国集团财长和央行行长发表声明,表示会采取必要行动以稳定全球金融体系。

  不过,分析师说,投资者希望在重回黄金怀抱之前,全球经济状况能有进一步改善。

  金价在9月初一度达到1920.30美元上方的历史高位,但本周至今跌幅已超过4%,并可能创下自5月初以来最大单周跌幅;不过今年至今,金价累计涨幅依然超过20%。

  到昨天晚上9点,黄金价格报1694.57美元,跌2.6%。

  Sharps Pixley分析师诺曼(Ross Norman)说,金价波动过于剧烈,导致投资者多以观望为主,目前市场情绪很紧张,过于剧烈的波动对市场信心是个很大的打击,“人们正寻求逢低入市的机会,金价依然有上升空间,但我不认为短期内能回到1920美元的位置。”

  白银是损失最为惨重的贵金属,截至昨天晚上9点,白银价格报32.75美元。德国商业银行在最新的报告中指出,贵金属最近的走势说明,不能把白银看做具有避险属性的资产。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date:24/09/11

欧债危机及美陷衰退威胁 全球股市损失超过10万亿美元市值

欧债危机及美陷衰退威胁
全球股市损失超过10万亿美元市值

(香港、伦敦彭博电)欧洲债务危机恶化及美国陷入衰退的威胁,今年5月至今,已经抹去了全球股市超过10万亿美元的市值,追踪45个国家股市表现的摩根士丹利资本国际全球指数,两年多来首次陷入熊市。

  摩根士丹利资本国际全球指数自5月2日触顶以来,累计下跌超过20%,符合于熊市的普遍定义;该指数星期四暴跌4.5%至13个月低位。

  摩根士丹利资本国际发达市场指数也在星期四重挫4.2%后陷入了熊市、摩根士丹利资本国际新兴市场指数则在9月13日便已经触及下跌20%的熊市门槛。

  日兴资产管理公司驻新加坡的首席投资员黄树南说:“市场的估价正在反映经济衰退,股价看上去很便宜,但要相信这一点需要极大的勇气。接下来的情况可能会变得更加糟。人们最担忧的是希腊主权债务违约的风险。”

  太平洋投资管理公司(Pacific Investment Management)首席执行员埃利安(Mohamed El-Erian)说,全球经济正处在新一轮金融危机的前夕,主权债务将是危机的震中。

  知名对冲基金经理毕格斯(Barton Biggs)也警告:“我们可能已经身处下一场金融危机边缘。我们原本可以通过努力避免这一幕,但这些努力没有付诸实践,而且没有迹象显示各国愿意付出这些努力。”

  根据编制机构的数据,24个发达市场之中,只有五个的基准股指从上个高点处回撤幅度少过20%,它们是:美国、英国、加拿大、新加坡和新西兰;海峡时报指数自7月时的3037点高位,至今下跌了11%。

  而21个新兴市场当中,只有8个的股市基准股指没有跌入熊市,包括南非。自2011年5月2日触及高点以来,摩根士丹利资本国际新兴市场指数累计下跌27%。

  摩根士丹利资本国际全球指数自5月2日触及高点以来,15个跌幅最大的股指,全在欧洲。其中,希腊ASE指数下跌42%,意大利FTSE MIB指数下跌40%,匈牙利Budapest股票交易所指数下跌38%。

  因投资者对全球经济将再度陷入衰退的担忧挥之不去,加上隔夜股市大跌,亚太股市昨天多数收低,香港股市再次收于26个月来低点,跌了1.4%;韩国股市大跌5.7%、泰国股重挫3.3%至七个月低点、新加坡股市收低0.8%至16个月低位、菲律宾股市大跌5.1%至八个月低点。不过印度尼西亚股逆市上涨,收高1.7%;该股市星期四重挫近9%。

欧洲三大股指微起

  欧洲股市经历了星期四的全线下跌之后,昨天大致上恢复稳定,变动不大。

  20国集团承诺采取协调行动来应对全球经济面临的挑战之后,提振了市场信心。

  欧洲三大股指,伦敦金融时报100指数、法兰克福DAX 30指数、巴黎CAC-40指数微起0.5%至1%。

  纽约股市开市后到午盘为止也没什么起伏。



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date:24/09/11

Consumers hit hard as inflation nears 3-year high

Consumers hit hard as inflation nears 3-year high
by Stella Lee 04:46 AM Sep 24, 2011
SINGAPORE - Consumers in Singapore have been badly stung by inflation that has risen to the highest level in almost three years even as dark clouds hovered over the economic outlook, data showed yesterday.

The consumer price index (CPI) was 5.7 per cent higher in August than the same month last year, according to the Department of Statistics, accelerating from July's 5.4 per cent rise and exceeding the economists' consensus forecast of 5.2 per cent. The jump was the highest since October 2008.

Stoking the price increase were higher private road transport costs, up 12.5 per cent, and accommodation costs, up 9.9 per cent. Food prices rose a more moderate 3 per cent.

CIMB economist Song Seng Wun said that what caught everybody off was the steep climb in the private transport costs. He said Certificate of Entitlement (COE) premiums had been rising all the way to last month.

But looking ahead, economists said inflationary pressures should moderate slightly given rising economic uncertainty, as reflected in the 6.5 per cent plunge in the Straits Times Index this month alone.

COE prices have indeed started to soften, while Mr Song noted that "in the housing component the rental revision will start to reflect the cautious environment".

Still, the latest inflation data complicates the central bank's task of keeping prices in check without choking growth, analysts said. Most agree it would be unsustainable for the Singapore dollar to continue its steep appreciation trend as the export sector becomes more vulnerable.

Credit Suisse economist Wu Kun Lung said: "The dilemma is this inflation and growth trade-off. With this in mind the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will want to keep the policy as flexible as possible."

Mr Wu said he believed that at its meeting next month, the MAS would continue to allow the Singapore dollar to appreciate, but at a slower pace.

In a note to investors, Credit Suisse said: "With growth risks to the downside, we think the pace of Singapore dollar (SGD) appreciation adopted since last October is too rapid. The sharp depreciation of the SGD in trade-weighted terms recently is a de-facto policy easing, and we think the MAS will make it official at its October meeting."

From a month earlier, August inflation was a seasonally adjusted 0.5 per cent, slowing from July's 0.6 per cent but still a tick above the forecast 0.4 per cent

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: TODAYonline
Publish date: 24/09/11

Asian shares extend fall

Asian shares extend fall
04:46 AM Sep 24, 2011
SINGAPORE - Asian stocks fell in choppy trade yesterday, extending losses amid a global market rout sparked by concerns of an economic slowdown, but some markets came off lows as a Group of 20 nations statement gave a slight boost to sentiment.

Singapore's Straits Times Index fell 0.8 per cent to 2,698.8, extending this week's decline to 3.2 per cent. In the broad market, losers outnumbered gainers 289 to 165 on volume of 1.6 billion shares worth about S$1.62 billion.

AmFraser's Najeeb Jarhom said: "Given that 2,600-2,700 contains a good number of historical support points ... there should be strong pressure to hold up within this zone."

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 1.4 per cent yesterday, ending the week 9.2 per cent lower, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.4 per cent yesterday and 2 per cent for the week. South Korea's Kospi suffered the region's worst losses yesterday, closing down by 5.7 per cent to end the week 7.7 per cent lower. Japan's markets were closed for a holiday.

Asian currencies had their biggest weekly drop since 2008 as investors sought out safer bets than emerging-market assets.

Two traders estimated South Korea spent about US$4 billion (S$5.2 billion) to reverse the won's falls, helping it pare recent losses. The won rose 1.3 per cent yesterday, but was Asia's worst performing currency for the week, retreating 4.6 per cent.

The Singapore dollar lost 4.3 per cent against the US dollar this week, its largest weekly decline, according to Reuters calculations. Agencies


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: TODAYonline
Publish date: 24/09/11

Tiger Airways to buy 33% stake in Indonesia's Mandala Airlines

Tiger Airways to buy 33% stake in Indonesia's Mandala Airlines
11:14 PM Sep 23, 2011
SINGAPORE - Tiger Airways said Friday it has finalised agreements to acquire a 33 per cent stake in Indonesia's Mandala Airlines.

Tiger Airways' investment in Mandala will be held through its wholly owned subsidiary in Singapore, Roar Aviation. The Singapore budget carrier did not provide financial details of the deal.

Mandala is currently undergoing a financial restructuring process in accordance with Indonesian laws.

The largest shareholder in the restructured Mandala will be the Saratoga group, which will hold a 51 per cent stake. The remaining 16 per cent will be held by the previous shareholders and creditors of Mandala.

The next stage of the process for completion of the proposed investment involves satisfying certain conditions, including which certain corporate actions and regulatory approvals.

The process is expected to be completed in about 90 days, after which flight operations are expected to commence.

The restructured airline is to adopt the Tiger Airways business model, and offer low-fare travel to international and domestic Indonesian destinations within a five-hour flying radius on Airbus A320 aircraft.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: TODAYonline
Publish date: 24/09/11

Market caught in a downward cycle

The Star Online > Business
Saturday September 24, 2011

Market caught in a downward cycle

By Cecilia Kok
cecilia_kok@thestar.com.my

REVIEW: Stock markets worldwide went through yet another bloodbath, as US Federal Reserve's warning of a “significant downside risk” to the world's largest economy exacerbated fears of investors who were already jittery about the worsening eurozone debt crisis.

The local stock market was sent to depressed levels, as foreign investors liquidated their assets and the benchmark FBM Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) staged a deep plunge.

Shares on Bursa Malaysia started the week in the red after shedding 17.81 points, or 1.24%, to 1,413.12 points on Monday. The sell down was in line with regional trend, as a highly anticipated meeting between European policymakers and US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner last week failed to produce a credible solution to deal with the eurozone debt crisis.

Loser trumped gainers 496 to 218 on total volume of 724.4 million shares valued at RM1.35bil.

Standard & Poor's downgrade of Italian sovereign debt rating prompted yet another sell off on Tuesday, with the FBM KLCI slipping another 2.48 points to close at 1,410.64. Losers trumped gainers again at 457 to 230 on higher volume of 784.6mil shares worth RM1.42bil.

Technicals were already signalling a rebound even as stocks on Wall Street were little changed ahead of a US Federal Reserve meeting to announce further economic stimulus measure and a European policymakers' assessment of the risk of default by Greece.

Shares on Bursa indeed staged a technical rebound on Wednesday, as did its regional peers. Sentiment somewhat improved after a gauge of economic indicators in China signalled growth could possibly withstand the effects of Europe's debt crisis and the faltering expansion of the US economy.

FBM KLCI gained 8.4 points to 1,419.04 points. Gainers beat losers 350 to 289 on turnover of 708.1 million shares worth RM1.15bil.

Overnight development in the United States gave global stock markets a nervous breakdown the day after. Downward correction in the US and European markets, following a disappointing “Operation Twist,” sent Asian markets to a free fall.

Shares on Bursa lost 31.23 points, or 2.2%, to 1,387.81, with 802 counters registering losses and only 85 gained. Volume traded improved to 874.1 million shares valued at RM1.7bil.

The Malaysian market extended its fall on Friday, following heavy losses in the US and European markets overnight amid rising fears of a possible recession in developed economies. Signs of weakness in China added fuel to investor fear, as the country's Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) signalled that the manufacturing, the economy's growth engine, could contract for a third month in September.

The preliminary HSBC China Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4 in September from a final reading of 49.9 in the preceding month. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

FBM KLCI ended the week at 1,365.94, shedding 21.87 points from Thursday, with 187 gainers and 624 losers. Turnover stood at 848.31 million shares valued at RM1.85bil.

Outlook: The International Monetary Fund and World Bank's constant reminder that the global economy is now in a new danger zone and that there's a spreading crisis in Europe will serve to cap risk appetite among investors.

“The tone is very pessimistic; there are still many uncertainties surrounding the global economy and investors' confidence remained dampened,” a dealer tells StarBizWeek.

“I'm not sure who dares to enter the market now given the extremely bearish momentum ... everyone's thinking of selling,” he adds.

After breaking the psychological support of 1,400 over the week, analysts reckon there to be further downside risk for shares on Bursa. The next retracement support for FBM KLCI is tagged at 1,327-1,344, while the next downside target should be the 1,300-psychological support level.

“Yes, there's a cheap sale in the stock market, but the meltdown will continue,” an analyst says.

“It's not yet time to bargain hunt. Investors should cash out on rebound and wait for the market to be more stable,” he adds.

With a dearth of fresh leads from the local economy, developments in the United States and Europe will continue to guide the market direction. Foreign sell down of ringgit-denominated assets are expected to continue, and that could bring down the local markets in general, and ringgit is expected to weaken further against the US dollar.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: The Star Online
Publish date:24/09/11

Will budget boost the stock market?

The Star Online > Business
Saturday September 24, 2011

Will budget boost the stock market?

By CECILIA KOK
cecilia_kok@thestar.com.my

RETIREES Peter Tan, 60, and Anand Raj, 58, have been spending the last three weeks in a local securities company monitoring the electronic stock board, and trying to calculate their losses from their respective equities portfolios.

Both men, who claim to have lost at least RM10,000 each as a result of the recent stock market carnage, are hoping to find a way out to minimise or recoup their losses.

“It's unfortunate I couldn't get out in time,” Tan says.

“I can still hold on to some of the good stocks that I have and wait for them to recover. But for some others, I just want to sell at the right price' to minimise my losses as much as possible,” Tan says.

His friend Anand agrees, saying: “Hopefully, our stocks will rebound soon. Much of our investable money is now tied down and we can't carry out new investments.

“But really, even if we have the money in hand now, I wouldn't dare to invest because the market is so volatile. We're not sure how much more it will fall. There's a lot of uncertainties, so we are more cautious, as we certainly don't want to get burnt again.”

Indeed, the mood is sombre at this juncture, given the ongoing debt crisis in the eurozone and persistently weak economic fundamentals of western developed nations, especially the United States.

Tan and Anand's response somewhat underscores the prevailing sentiment in the equity market, but like many they are hoping that a pre-budget rally could act as a balm to soothe their losses.

Many will be keeping their fingers crossed that initiatives in Budget 2012 could provide a catalyst for the local market, but some financial experts are not too optimistic.


Indifferent view

Budget measures often act as fundamental drivers for the market. Technical analysis show the Malaysian equity market to be oversold and this essentially means the stock market is currently trading at very attractive valuations.

But indicators, according to experts, still suggest a bearish momentum for the broader market over the short to medium term.

Unless the budget offers measures that will help navigate Malaysian equities through the global market nervousness, further downside is expected as the local stock market, like its regional peers, still has to grapple with the effects of nagging fundamental problems in the global economy.

“Buying interest is unlikely to pick up anytime soon given the prevailing mood in the market and I'm not sure about the upcoming Budget 2012 being a game changer,” an analyst from a foreign research house tells StarBizWeek.

Budget 2012 will be tabled by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak in parliament on Oct 7. Najib has promised that the budget would be an “inclusive and people-centric scheme that would spur Malaysia towards a high-income economy by 2020”.

“There could probably be some boost to the local market in the run up to the budget announcement, but I don't expect to see any significant movement,” he adds.

His sentiment is shared by most analysts.

CIMB Investment Bank head of equity research Terence Wong says: “Even if there's a pre-budget rally, it would likely be short-lived, and would likely happen a day or two before the budget is announced.”

“While we're still positive on the local stock market over the long term, we think there's probably further downside ahead, short-term wise,” Wong explains, adding that his team is looking at the benchmark stock index, FTSE Bursa Malaysia (FBM) KLCI, trending towards a range of between 1,280 and 1,350 points in the short term.

The FBM KLCI closed on Friday 21.87 points lower at 1,365.94 points, representing a loss of 14% from this year's high of 1,594.74 points on July 8.

Traditionally, in the run-up to the budget, the Malaysian stock market would rally. But this time round, that tradition could well be broken, as depressing external factors are casting a shadow on any positive measure that could be announced.

“We struggle to see how the budget can have any significant impact on the market,” OSK Holdings director/head of research Chris Eng says.

For one thing, the downtrend of the market is unlikely to be reversed, at least not in the short term. Even by trying to be as positive as he could, Eng, by assuming a “non-recessionary environment”, thinks the FBM KLCI could stabilise within the range of 1,350-1,378 points.

But based on current trends, Eng says “the market seems to be pricing in a recessionary environment”, which means further downside ahead.

OSK Research on Friday published a report stating that the FBM KLCI could be moving towards 1,335 points soon. The researh house also had a report stating its expectations of a moderate hike in tobacco duty in the budget, while the brewery sector would likely be spared. With that, it has a “neutral” stance on the tobacco industry, while maintaining an “overweight” call on brewery.

In any case, Eng says the potential wage hike for civil servants that could be incorporated in the “people-friendly” Budget 2012 will remain supportive of consumer spending and benefit the domestic economy.


The bull is dead

Perhaps one thing will not change. A “people-friendly” budget means politically-linked stocks will likely gain this budget season, as Affin Investment Bank head of retail research Dr Nazri Khan sees it.

But Nazri says any so-called rally by the broader market will likely be muted, as huge selling resulting from an increasingly gloomy global economic outlook will continue to overwhelm any feel-good factor in the domestic market.

“If past trends are of any indication, the selling climax will happen in October,” Nazri says.

“From then on, we will have to see how stable the global market is to chart the next course,” he explains.

Every action that global policymakers take to resuscitate the world economy seems to have failed to re-ignite investors' risk appetite.

“The bull is dead. Any life' is merely a rebound within a downtrend, giving investors, who are still stuck with their bad investments, an opportunity to come out of the market and cut losses,” a local analyst says.

“I don't think the market is talking about the upcoming budget at all. It is more concerned about what's going on in overseas markets, and if the market did indeed rebound, that would merely be a technical correction of an oversold market that so happens to coincide with a so-called pre-budget rally,” he explains.

Echoing a similar sentiment, Maybank Investment Bank head of retail research Lee Cheng Hooi expects further “blood-letting” by the market in the days ahead, especially since the FBM KLCI broke through a critical level of 1,400 over the week.

He had earlier expected a mini pre-budget rally to take place. A worsening global market outlook and US Federal Reserve's recent warning of “significant downside risks” nevertheless threw his earlier judgement out of the window, and Lee is now expecting a continuous slide of the FBM KLCI towards the 1,249-1,344 range.

“Markets are very bad globally. We're seeing a meltdown here,” Lee explains, adding that the chance of a pre-budget rally is extremely remote.

Sell on rallies and keep a larger cash pile for now, is what he advises, amid the present market turbulence.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: The Star Online
Publish date:24/09/11

Mission for new MAS MD

The Star Online > Business
Saturday September 24, 2011

Mission for new MAS MD

By B.K. SIDHU
bksidhu@thestar.com.my

AHMAD Jauhari or AJ as he likes to be called had one key message to convey to the senior team of Malaysia Airlines (MAS) on his first day at the company's helm get on with work, keep things simple and focus on cranking up sales. On Day 2, he shot off an e-mail message to the carrier's bulging staff force to work together as a team and again, to focus on revving up sales.

That was it. No high-flung promises or ambitious plans but a simple and clear message meant to connect with every key layer of the organisation.

AJ began his stint as managing director of MAS on Monday, silencing rife speculation for weeks on who would be tipped to take over the airline's top seat from Tengku Datuk Azmil Zahruddin.

It was good that he kept his message simple. For an organisation as large as MAS, making small and big decisions could involve a rather convoluted process at times.

And if it is to achieve its ambitions to be a premium airline, being nimble and lean would be paramount. AJ's directive to the rest of the troop is to sort out the cashflow, repair the balance sheet, raise the bar on service quality and strengthen the brand. Indeed, a good start as any. But the one thing he doesn't have on his side is time.

The new team at MAS following the share swap exercise with AirAsia Bhd's major shareholders in early August have decided that MAS get back to becoming a serious premier carrier. That was a formula that had worked in the hey days of MAS and the aspiration is to reignite that spark. But the landscape of the industry today is far more challenging than it used to be.

The national carrier is 64 years old and its journey over the past two decades has been like a roller coaster ride. Analysts' attention to the stock has been equally volatile during the good times, the stock would appear on the buy radar but on bad years and there have been many, it would be a shunned counter.

Today, after many restructuring and turnaround plans, it is again at the crossroads. The airline is bleeding red ink even though load factor is in the high 70% range which means yields have a gaping room for improvement. “MAS is selling seats and filling up the plane but not at the prices it should,” says an expert.

The signs of trouble emerged when it reported a RM242mil net loss for the first three months of the year. Within six months of that, it became glaringly clear that a strategy change was needed. On Aug 1 the former managing director (MD) of MAS, Tan Sri Md Nor Yusof was appointed chairman and shortly after the board was revamped while Tengku Azmil stepped down and the airline's strongest critic Tan Sri Tony Fenandes and his partner Datuk Kamarudin Meranun emerged with a 20% share in MAS.

An executive committee (exco) led by Md Nor was set up in the interim and now that the search for MD is complete with AJ appointed, the exco would be disbanded.

For the first half of the year the airline announced a net loss of RM769mil whereas other players in the industry reported similar amounts in profit.

Those in the know claim that AJ was chosen from several candidates, all equally qualified. He had to undergo a “robust” interview session and screening that was done at many levels. Even a third party validation agency was appointed to ensure MAS had picked the right candidate. But he was not short of job offers. In fact, it is believed that he was offered to help set up an international joint venture but was cajoled instead to take up this “national service.”

His may be a hot seat but fixing the airline's financials is only but one of the many challenges which awaits him. He needs to also reach out to the heart and soul of MAS and its greatest asset the employees who have tirelessly served the airline amid good and rough times.

Not that others have not done so in the past, but it has become even more important now following the recent outburst by Malaysian Airlines System Employees' Union, who had threatened to picket as they believe the share swap will result in job losses, especially for Sapphire, the new premium airline for short haul destinations.

“The major shareholders, including the government, had underestimated the human element and the outburst had come as a surprise. There has been a lot of anger built over nearly two decades and it stems from a lot of reasons, the biggest being that the existing talent is often sidelined when shareholders in their eagerness to see change parachute specialists into the organisation.

“Often the specialists bring their own teams and many existing talents are displaced. Many specialists also prefer the big picture view and often little things are left unattended to,” says an industry watcher, adding that often, “it is the little pebbles that trip the giant not the boulders and attention to detail is needed now more than the helicopter view.”

Of the eight unions, one has not been able get the collective agreement sorted for a year now and four more collective agreements are ending soon. All these need to be addressed pretty soon.

Managing yields is something AJ will be able to tackle. But fixing the softer side of the operations could also take up a lot of his time. The good thing is that he has Md Nor, known to be a people's person and a good mediator.

Those who were present at the briefing session on AJ's first day are encouraged by the new boss' persona. AJ, for many in the business world is someone who is “credible, talented, not one with a big ego, not someone with all the answers for everything, empathetic and strangely enough, of the notion that the Performance Management System (PMS) and Key Performance Index (KPI) are far too advanced for MAS.”

He also needs to pull down the many silos that have been built within the airline which can be disruptive to his agenda. Investors' patience has run thin. MAS' rivals are forging ahead.

Recently Singapore Airlines (SIA) announced the change in its front end seats; Qantas is also planning to set base in Kuala Lumpur or Singapore to tap the premium market.

Competition from low cost carriers (LCCs) is heating up with the arrival fo SIA's Scoot Airlines and Thai Airways' new LCC. Furthermore, the International Air Transport Association has warned of a tougher year for airlines in 2012.

The differentiating factors are service and product which MAS needs to strategise on.

While the move to sponsor Queens Park Rangers FC was highly criticised, it could help expand the brand positioning of the airline which is crucial for a premium carrier. Emirates has been successful because it spends big bucks on sports sponsorship.

The race has begun. AJ's mandate is to ensure MAS stays in the game, with a stronger financial footing and a much-vaunted brand everyone wants to fly with.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: The Star Online
Publish date:24/09/11

Soros: US Is Already in Double-Dip Recession



Billionaire investor George Soros said he believed the United States was already experiencing the pain of a double dip recession and that Republican opposition to Obama's fiscal stimulus plans was to blame for sluggish growth.



Asked by CNBC if he believed the US risks falling into a double-dip recession , Soror said: "I think we are in it already."

"We have a slowdown and basically a conflict about whether the rich ought to pay taxes to create jobs or not and there was a deal in the making which would have balanced the budget over the long term, but would have allowed short-term fiscal stimulus, which would have been the right policy," Soros said in an interview late Wednesday.

"That was rejected, it fell apart… so it will come to the electorate next year to decide what they want," he added.

Euro zone policymakers have repeatedly followed the wrong policy shifts, creating a situation in Europe "more dangerous" to the global financial system than the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, Soros said.

"It is a more dangerous situation [than Lehman Bros] and I think that the authorities, when push comes to shove, will do whatever it takes to hold the system together, because the alternative is just too terrible to contemplate," he added.

A number of smaller euro zone nations could default and leave the single currency area, Soros said, but he warned if it happened on an ad hoc basis, there would be considerable risk to the global economy.

"I think that you could have two or three of the small countries default or leave the euro provided it is prepared and done in an orderly way," Soros said.

"If it were to happen unprepared it could actually disrupt the global financial system, but that's why it's important to allow for it to happen and then those countries have a genuine choice it doesn't mean they are being pushed out."

Soros said he believed the so-called 'Troika' of the EU, ECB and IMF would release the next tranche of aid to heavily indebted Greece, but he stressed the creation of a European bailout fund would determine whether Greece received another bailout in December.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.cnbc.com (http://www.cnbc.com/id/44621082)
Publish date: 22/09/11

Property developers on softer ground

Property developers on softer ground
By Sharen Kaur
sharen@nstp.com.my
2011/09/24

Kuala Lumpur: Property companies' earnings growth in fiscal 2012 will be affected by lower sales, analysts warn.
Property developers are revising their sales target because of the gloomy outlook, especially in international markets.





Companies such as Berjaya Land Bhd, SP Setia Bhd and Gamuda Bhd may be in for some choppy times, given their exposure to the property sector in Vietnam, analysts added.

"They were bullish on their sales target but people on the ground may have provided new insights on how the market in Vietnam will perform," an analyst with a foreign research house told Business Times.

The property market in Vietnam has been suffering from the tightening of monetary policy and high lending interest rate.

Also, foreign investors remain in a cautious mood due to domestic economic problem as well as gloomy outlook of global economics.

A construction analyst from MIDF Research said Gamuda may be cutting its sales target after taking into consideration the combined factors.

"We had a 'buy' call on Gamuda with target price of RM4.68. However, looking at the weakening market condition, we are relooking our target price with a downward bias," the analyst said.

Gamuda, a construction and engineering group, has two projects in Vietnam, namely Gamuda City, a 200ha mixed township which is expected to rake in a gross development value (GDV) of US$9 billion (RM28.6 billion) over nine years, and Celadon City.

Celadon City is expected to generate RM5.5 billion in GDV over nine years. The project is slated for launch in the current quarter.

Gamuda initially was aiming for RM2.8 billion in property sales for fiscal 2012, expecting RM1.5 billion from Vietnam and the rest from local property projects. But it has more than halve its property sales target in Vietnam to RM650 million.

The MIDF analyst expects Gamuda to start recognising earnings from the property sales in Vietnam from 2012 onwards.

For the first nine months of its current financial year ending April 30 2011, Gamuda posted a net profit of RM116.6 million, 40 per cent more than the same period last year.

The stock has fallen 23 per cent between August 1 and September 22 this year.

Gamuda's stock rating was cut to "hold" from "trading buy" at ECM Libra Capital Sdn Bhd to reflect concerns over the company's "exposure" to Vietnam's property market.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.btimes.com.my
Publish date:24/09/11

Sheng Siong :Proxy to local consumption demand (OCBC)

Initiating Coverage
Sheng Siong Group Ltd
HOLD
52 Wk Range 0.330 - 0.560
Current Price: S$0.44
Fair Value: S$0.43

Proxy to local consumption demand
Synonymous with value. Sheng Siong Group Ltd (SSG), with its highly recognizable brand name, is one of the top three supermarket chains in Singapore in terms of revenue, and has a current size of 23 supermarket stores with three wet market stalls.

Fresh produce – a lucrative segment. Fresh produce contributes about 30% to its revenue, with strong gross profit margins ranging from 21% to as high as 30%. Naturally, management hopes to achieve higher contribution from this segment going forward. Coupled with their expertise in handling fresh produce and the new distribution centre where it can handle larger quantities of fresh produce, we expect to see increased revenue contribution (>50%) from this segment within the next few years.

Store expansion to drive future growth. An expansion of its store network is essential to drive future growth and we believe that the local market is able to support additional stores without over-saturation. There are several highly populated areas in Singapore (approximately 45% of the total number of Singapore residents) where SSG lacks a formal store presence, and management has identified Sengkang, Hougang and Toa Payoh as key growth areas in the interim. Although NTUC Fairprice has between four to five stores in these locations, most of these are located in the central areas, which frees up the hinterlands for SSG to enter.

Temporary revenue dip in FY11. Due to the closures of two key outlets, lower revenues are forecasted (-10% YoY) in FY11 although we expect profitability margins to at least maintain at its current adjusted FY10 levels. However, the fall in revenue is expected to be temporary as the two new outlets opened in FY11– in areas with comparable residency levels as the two closed stores – will contribute fully in FY12. We estimate FY12 revenue growth to pick up by at least 12% YoY.

Initiate with HOLD after spectacular share price run-up. Its shares have appreciated almost 33% since its listing. We like SSG for its strong fundamentals and healthy balance sheet, but are also mindful of the temporary revenue decline expected in FY11. Overall, given the dismal economic outlook, SSG still represents a defensive play into domestic consumption demand. We initiate coverage on SSG with a HOLD rating and a fair value estimate of S$0.43 based on a discounted free cash-flow-to-equity model (cost of equity: 7.6%; terminal growth rate: 2%), and this translates to a dividend yield of 4.6% based on FY11F earnings. We will turn buyers of SSG at S$0.40 or lower.

Section A: Background
Sheng Siong - synonymous with value. From its humble beginnings in 1983, Sheng Siong Group (SSG) evolved from a single store in Ang Mo Kio to become one of the top three supermarket chains in Singapore in terms of revenue with a loyal following and a highly recognizable brand name. SSG prides itself on providing excellent service with shorter queues, fresher food at lower prices – qualities that have allowed it to expand to its current size of 23 supermarket stores and three wet market stalls located across the island – and offers its customers a wide variety of products and produce in both “wet and dry” shopping options. To further complement their product offerings, SSG also developed a selection of over 300 products under 10 housebrands to provide customers with cheaper, quality alternatives to other comparable international and national brands. SSG was listed on the SGX in Aug 2011.

Fresh produce – a key revenue contributor. In terms of its revenue mix, SSG obtains roughly 30% of its revenue from the sale of fresh produce i.e. fresh vegetables, seafood, meat and fruits, with the rest coming from the sale of dry, packaged and household products.

Direct material the biggest cost component. Direct material costs, which consist mainly of raw materials such as goods for resale, packaging materials, freight costs etc, is the largest cost component in SSG’s cost of sales. According to management, it typically hovers between the 98-99% range of total cost of sales. Direct labour cost incorporating staff salaries, and bonus and CPF payments is the next highest component, and has increased gradually over the years due to increased headcount. The last component, overhead cost, comprises of depreciation expenses, repair and maintenance charges and utilities expenses.

Consolidation with stabilizing revenue growth. SSG’s revenue grew quickly in its earlier years (CAGR 13.1%) due to the rapid expansion of its outlets but has since stabilized over the past three years with SSG focusing on the consolidation of its existing outlets and the improvement of its gross, operating and net profit margins. Furthermore, as no single supplier or contract manufacturer contributes more than 5% of SSG’s total purchases, SSG is not at the mercy of supplier power. Going forward, SSG will continue to leverage off its top three supermarket positioning and wealth of established relationships with suppliers and manufacturers to ensure product quality and costs. Coupled with efforts, SSG is also looking for opportunities to procure its purchases directly from the product originators. In addition, SSG will seek to expand the range of products under its household brands.

Serious about service and efficiency. In an effort to improve its retail operations, SSG recently completed the construction of a new S$65m corporate headquarters that encompasses warehousing and distribution facilities at Mandai Link. The one-stop facility, used concurrently with its computerized systems, should allow it to control and replenish inventory at its various outlets in a timely and efficient manner. Furthermore, benefits from integration will allow it to enjoy economies of scale in terms of manpower, transportation and fuel costs.

Business outlook and strategy. Management expects the outlook for its business to remain positive and will seek to achieve the following objectives: expand its store network, increase operational efficiency, and broaden the selection of housebrands and corresponding housebrand products. It intends to fund these objectives using some of the IPO proceeds as well with internally generated funds.

Section B: Industry Overview
Resilience to economic downturns. As supermarkets participate in the sale of consumer staples, they generally exhibit some resilience against economic downturns. Given the necessity of these items for daily living, demand remains relatively inelastic regardless of economic cycle. For example, during the recent financial crisis, all three major supermarket operators in Singapore managed to record decent revenue growth despite a decline in overall consumer expenditure as consumers switched from diningout to having meals at home. Even with penny-pinching consumers during periods of economic slowdown, supermarkets would still be able to record sales as consumers would substitute more expensive items for cheaper alternatives.

Building on that notion and as part of its efforts to capitalize on cost-conscious consumers, SSG developed a selection of 300 household products under 10 housebrands to serve as cheaper, quality alternatives to other comparable international and national brands. Under this initiative, the product range includes household products for laundry purposes, typical stationery, confectionery and beverage items as well as rice and vegetable produce.

Strengths
Strong brand recognition. On top of the traditional marketing mediums of weekly print advertisements to showcase their product range and promotions, SSG launched a television show titled “The Sheng Siong Show” in 2007 to further raise its profile amongst national audiences. The show, which includes segments encouraging viewers to patronize their stores by offering them a chance to win cash prizes based on multiples of their purchase amounts, has proven very popular by attracting strong viewership levels. The show recently concluded its ninth season (each season comprises of 10 to 14 episodes). Funding for their print advertisements and television show are obtained in the form of trading incentives such as volume rebates and advertising assistances from their product suppliers in exchange for showcasing their item. As a result of their efforts, SSG has been awarded the “Superbrand” status for four consecutive years by Superbrands (Singapore), a global organization that recognizes the most valued and exceptional brands.

Experienced management. Management of SSG still rests in the hands of the three founding Lim brothers: Mr. Lim Hock Eng (Executive Chairman), Mr. Lim Hock Chee (CEO) and Mr. Lim Hock Leng (Managing Director). They have 73 years of combined experience in grocery retailing. With their in-depth knowledge of the industry in Singapore, they have been able to drive SSG’s remarkable growth over the years using two main strategies:

Revenue optimization
SSG is able to generate higher revenue per square metre (sq m) of operating space as compared to its peers, and this is achievable in two ways: i) according to management, SSG packs more items per isle relative to their peers, and ii) SSG maximizes the amount of floor space to display product items by removing the traditional on-site storage space in its outlets. To mitigate the issue of stock depletion, SSG replenishes its stores four times a day. These delivery trips are further optimized for value through the use of a real-time inventory management system, which allows for effective communications between the central warehouse and respective stores. By maintaining a well-stocked store, SSG is able to satisfy consumer demand for its more popular items whilst ensuring freshness and quality for its perishable items like meat, vegetables, fruits and seafood.

Strategic store locations
As management understands that it is not in their best interest to compete head-on with its competitors like NTUC Fairprice, it has embarked on a strategy to open and operate stores in locations without significant competitor presence. This strategy allows the group to develop a strong following in their chosen areas by being the main source of quality groceries and household essentials.

Furthermore, the move prevents the cannibalization of sales from same stores within certain proximities. Out of its 23 outlets, the closest distance between any two SSG stores is 1.2km (according to Google Maps) with the second nearest at 1.5km away. On the other hand, its competitor, NTUC Fairprice, has stores located within a 300m radius of each other. While NTUC Fairprice outlets have a higher tendency to be situated closer to each other given its position as the market leader and its larger number of outlets, the introduction of more outlets per location has not transpired into higher revenues for NTUC on an extrapolated basis. When comparing 2010’s financial figures, although it has about more than four times the number of stores SSG has, yet its revenue is only larger by slightly more than three times. In fact, its net profit margin is even lower than SSG (2010: 4.9%1 vs. 5.3%2).

Weaknesses
Susceptible to rental increases & denial of lease renewals. As SSG currently leases all its properties, the ability to secure favourable rental rates and ensure lease renewals for its more popular and profitable stores will be key to prolonging the group’s success. However, with rental rate increases corresponding to general economic growth and outlook in Singapore, it may not be able to renew leases and/or be subjected to bear unfavourable rental rates during boom periods. Rental costs constitute a decent portion of its operating expenses – rental costs as a percentage of revenue amounted to 1.8%, 1.9% and 2.3% respectively for the years between 2008 and 2010. As such, any rental hike could result in a squeeze on its operating margins.

In addition, the sale and/or redevelopment of certain areas and/or shopping centres will affect its top-line performance and growth as well. Over the past year, SSG has had to deal with the closure of two key stores – Ten Mile Junction in Nov 2010 and Tanjong Katong in Sep 2011 – after the respective landlords sold the premises to third parties and the leases were not renewed. While SSG will definitely replace the stores in other locations, the loss of these two stores in profitable locales is expected to negatively impact its books in the interim.

Lack of a formal succession plan. Although SSG’s founders will continue to lead the group into new growth areas, the lack of a formal succession plan could prove to be a weakness in the long-run. However, the IPO is one of the ways it is seeking to address this issue by attracting more talents post listing. It has also incorporated outsiders including Mr. Tan Ling San (Executive Director) and Mr. Wong Soong Kit (Finance Director) into the management ranks. Nevertheless, the three brothers still hold approximately 71.5% of the group in total, split evenly amongst them. If they decide to retire or step down before a formal succession plan is put into place, it may lead to a potential loss of strategic direction. While this event is still some ways away and may ultimately not even pose any threats, we are also cognizant of potential pitfalls if it does.

Untapped areas in Singapore. There still exist several highly populated areas in Singapore (approximately 45% of the total number of Singapore residents) where SSG lacks a formal store presence. According to the table above, there are 18 locations in Singapore with no SSG stores whereas the market leader, NTUC Fairprice, has slightly more than half of its total outlets spread out across these locations. This means that SSG still has a lot of room to grow its store network, and we see no issue with it supporting and managing up to 40 stores.

For key growth areas in the short-term, we see Sengkang, Hougang and Toa Payoh, which have above average number of residents, as important locations for SSG to consider in the short-term. Although NTUC Fairprice has between four to five stores in these locations, most of them are located in the central areas, which frees up the hinterlands for SSG to enter.

Increase fresh produce market share. In terms of its revenue mix, fresh produce is a key revenue generator, contributing roughly 30% to its revenue.
Furthermore, the segment is highly profitable with gross profit margins ranging between 21% to as high as 30%. Naturally, with such a significant revenue and highly profitably component, management hopes to achieve an increased contribution going forward. Coupled with its new distribution centre where it can handle larger quantities of fresh produce effectively without suffering losses in quality, management aims to provide more variety of products to the end customer and ultimately win market share away from the traditional wet markets. On the cost front, management aims to obtain a 100% level of procurement from direct suppliers to eliminate unnecessary middlemen expenses, which will also allow SSG to have higher level of control over the quality, freshness, and packaging of its goods.

Threats
Competitive operating environment. SSG operates in a highly competitive environment where it faces intense competition from other supermarket chains as well as traditional grocery retailers (wet markets), mom-and-pop convenience stores and even petrol kiosks. Although SSG has built up a strong following over the years, its ability to generate future revenue growth is not a certainty. Its existing stores may face competition from new competitor outlets in their operating areas; it may lose customers to aggressive promotional marketing by its competitors. In response, SSG may be forced to increase its advertising and marketing expenditure, which would bump up costs accordingly. Furthermore, should its larger competitors decide to initiate a price war, SSG may be unable to compete due to smaller financial resources.

External events – health scares. An outbreak of diseases in livestock (mad cow, bird flu etc) or food scares (salmonella etc) will affect SSG’s financial performance as there will be a reduction in consumption of the affected meat/food. Coupled with a loss in consumer confidence arising from the outbreak of disease, SSG may face inventory losses from the affected food product. In addition, supplies for unaffected substitutes will be elevated and SSG may not be able to pass on the corresponding increases onto their end customers.

External events – supply disruptions. Although no one supplier amounts for more than 5% of SSG’s total purchases, it may still be subjected to supply disruptions arising from severe weather conditions or natural disasters. As SSG obtains about 30% of its revenue via the sale of fresh produce, force majeure events may also affect the quality and quantity of crops that it is able to procure.

Section D: Financial Highlights
Stable revenue with gross profit margin improvement. Since 2008, SSG temporarily shifted its focus from outlet expansion to the consolidation of its existing outlets. As a result of this consolidation, top-line growth was marginal with a 0.5% YoY increase to S$628.4m in FY10 (due to the fullyear operation of Punggol Central Supermarket which opened in Dec 2009), while gross profit margins improved by one percentage point to 22%. SSG had managed to reduce the largest component of its cost of sales, direct material costs, by 1.5% in FY10 after purchasing more and varied supplies from direct suppliers instead of wholesalers. With regards to its operating expenses, distribution and administrative expenses saw mild increases (+1.3% YoY and +2.1% YoY respectively) to accommodate higher staff costs and rental and conservancy charges.

Stable revenue with gross profit margin improvement. Since 2008, SSG temporarily shifted its focus from outlet expansion to the consolidation of its existing outlets. As a result of this consolidation, top-line growth was marginal with a 0.5% YoY increase to S$628.4m in FY10 (due to the fullyear operation of Punggol Central Supermarket which opened in Dec 2009), while gross profit margins improved by one percentage point to 22%. SSG had managed to reduce the largest component of its cost of sales, direct material costs, by 1.5% in FY10 after purchasing more and varied supplies from direct suppliers instead of wholesalers. With regards to its operating expenses, distribution and administrative expenses saw mild increases (+1.3% YoY and +2.1% YoY respectively) to accommodate higher staff costs and rental and conservancy charges.

Significant investment income in 2009/10 boosted operating and net profits. However, in terms of its operating and net profits, SSG had received S$3.1m and S$9.4m in gains on disposal of investments in 2009 and 2010 respectively, which boosted its operating and bottom-line figures for those years. (These investments were related to the trading of equities and were disposed by the group prior to its listing.) These amounts accounted for 24% and 59% of “Other Income”, and 8% and 19% of operating profit in 2009 and 2010, respectively. Excluding these amounts, net profit would have been lower at S$30.5m and S$33.2m for 2009 and 2010 respectively, with a corresponding net profit margin of 4.9% and 5.3% respectively, which would have been more in line with its top-line growth over the same period of time. Nonetheless, despite the exclusion of these one-time figures, margins have shown improvement over the years (2008-2010) with gross profit, operating profit and net profit all increasing impressively.

Future outlook – coping with closure of key outlets. Management expects FY11 revenue to be lower than FY10 after the closure of two supermarkets located at Ten Mile Junction and Tanjong Katong. Leases for both locations were not renewed – Ten Mile Junction closed for redevelopment while the landlord for its Tanjong Katong outlet sold the premises – and SSG will likely experience a combined decrease in revenue contribution of between 8.75% and 17.5%1 (based on FY10 revenue). To mitigate the loss of outlets, management recently announced two new store outlets in Woodlands Industrial Park (~14K sq/ft) and along Upper Thomson Road (~11K sq/ft), which are expected to contribute to the group in 4Q FY11.

Future outlook – store expansion and cost reduction. As mentioned earlier, management intends to reap economies of scale from the new Mandai Link Distribution Centre, and enjoy increased productivity whilst reducing operational costs. It also intends to expand its store network in either Singapore (via areas with sizeable resident populations like Sengkang and Hougang) or Malaysia i.e. Johor Bahru although any potential store openings over there are still in the exploratory phase.

Section E: Initial Public Offering
351.5m shares offered. For its initial public offering, SSG offered 351.5m shares for subscription (201.5m were new shares; 150m were vendor shares) with each unit priced at S$0.33. The total shares on offer amounted to about 26.2% of the total shares outstanding with the remaining 73.8% held by the three Lim brothers (38.1% directly and 35.7% indirectly via Sheng Siong Holdings, which is owned equally by them as well). As the IPO was fully subscribed, SSG received approximately S$66.5m before the deducting underwriting, placement, brokerage and other expenses of around S$3.9m. The group received no proceeds from the Vendor shares sold. SSG was successfully listed on the SGX on 17 August 2011.

Use of proceeds. Management intends to use the net IPO proceeds i) to repay a S$30m term loan granted by DBS Bank to part finance the construction of its Mandai Link Distribution Centre, ii) to pursue future expansion plans (S$20m), iii) for working capital purposes (S$12.6m), and iv) to repay expenses related to the issuance of new shares (S$3.9m).

Overallotment of shares – 78% exercised. An overallotment of 52.7m shares was granted to the issue manager, OCBC Bank, where 78% (42.037m shares) was exercised on 15 Sep 2011. This exercise provided SSG with an additional S$13.9m and diluted the majority holdings of the Lim brothers and Sheng Siong holdings to 36.9% and 34.6% respectively (total 71.5%).

Dividend policy following IPO. During its investment roadshows, management announced that it planned to distribute up to 90% of its net profit after tax to shareholders for FY11 and FY12.

Section F: Valuations and Recommendation
Investment thesis
Defensive stock with a strong balance sheet. We deem SSG to be a resilient stock in the face of the current economic downturns. We also like SSG for its strong fundamentals and healthy balance sheet (net cash positions). However, in order to fully value and appreciate its business and outlook, we divided our valuation analysis into the appropriate time frames – immediate, short-medium, long-term – and weighed each timeframes’ impact on its valuation.

Immediate focus – less profitable FY11
Lower revenue & net profit expected for FY11 due to store closures.
Due to the closures of two key outlets, management expects to see lower revenue in FY11 as compared to FY10. Although SSG recently opened two stores in Woodlands and Thomson, both outlets are only expected to contribute to revenue from 4Q2011. Therefore, with the loss of two significant revenue contributors, we anticipate a decline of 13% YoY for FY11’s revenue. Furthermore, the absence of investment income in FY11 will return SSG’s net profit back to realistic levels, and we forecast a corresponding decrease of 9.8% YoY for FY11 profit (on a FY10 adjusted basis).

However, profitability margins should maintain. With its new distribution centre in Mandai Link and management’s unrelenting commitment to improving its supply chain, we expect SSG’s profitability margins to at least maintain at the FY10 levels despite the anticipated fall in revenues. In addition, management’s decision to obtain more and varied supplies from direct suppliers instead of wholesalers should contribute positively as well.

Active renewal of leases to continue. We do not foresee further loss of any existing outlets in the interim as we believe in management’s ability to pro-actively renew expiring leases in advance to ensure continued operations. Management has already renewed the lease on the Chin Swee Road Ö outlet (which expired on 31 Jul 2011) with a one year extension while the lease renewal process of another store located in Ang Mo Kio Avenue 3 Ù is currently on-going with management negotiating with the landlord, HDB. With regards to the expiring leases of its wet market stalls located in Elias Mall – the property is being leased from E Land Properties, which is an entity related to the founders of SSG – we do not anticipate any issues relating to a lease renewal/extension.

Short-medium term focus – revenue pickup in FY12
Revenue growth to pick up in FY12. The two new outlets opened in FY11 will be fully operational in FY12 (we also anticipate the addition of at least one more store by end FY11), and we expect revenue growth to pick up in FY12 by at least 12%. As both outlets are located in areas (Woodlands and Ang Mo Kio/Bishan) with comparable residency levels as the two stores that closed (Ten Mile and Tanjong Katong), these stores should enjoy similar levels of patronage and be able to pick up the slack lost in FY11.

90% payout will not hinder store network expansion plans. With S$20m coming in from the IPO and given Sheng Siong’s healthy balance sheet (net cash) and strong cash position, the planned 90% payout of FY11/12 earnings will not be a potential hindrance to any expansion initiatives.

Three new outlets per year. As an expansion of SSG’s store network is essential to drive its future growth and maintain its market share, we forecast the addition of approximately three new stores per year with a corresponding yearly capital expenditure of S$6.5m. For each new store, SSG requires a capital expenditure of approximately S$1.5m for every 10,000 sq feet it rents to renovate/refurbish it to the required specifications, and with an average store size of about 14,371 sq feet, that will amount to an estimated cost of S$2.16m per new store location.

Long-term focus – revenue protection with stable customer base
Downside protection with stable customer base. As stated earlier, supermarkets generally exhibit some resilience against economic downturns due to their participation in the sale of consumer staples. This should provide SSG with some downside protection in terms of revenue generation and enhance its qualities as a defensive stock. Furthermore, as revenue of grocery retailers tend to move in tandem with general population growth (CAGR +2.2%; 1960-2010), we expect a growing customer base for SSG via higher population densities.

Valuation
Initiate with HOLD after spectular share price run-up. SSG’s shares have appreciated by almost 33% since its listing. Overall, we like the group for its strong fundamentals and healthy balance sheet. Given the current dismal economic outlook, the group still represents a good investment in terms of the defensive nature of its business. As such, we initiate coverage on SSG with a HOLD rating at a fair value estimate of S$0.43 based on a discounted free cash-flow-to-equity model (cost of equity: 7.6%; terminal growth rate: 2%), and this translates to a dividend yield of 4.6% based on FY11F. We will turn buyers of SSG at S$0.40 or lower.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: OCBC Investment Research
Publish date:23/09/11

Friday, September 23, 2011

2011-0919-57金錢爆(台股動物園無猩日)



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date:19/09/11

Gamuda tops losers’ list in market sell-off

KUALA LUMPUR: With the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) rebounding 0.6% to 1,410.64 points yesterday, after plunging to a 13-month low on Tuesday, could more bargain hunting be on the cards? And what were the stocks hit hardest in the recent sell-down?

After hitting a historic high of 1,594.74 on July 8, the FBM KLCI fell to 1,410.64 points on Tuesday, a decline of 11.54%, before yesterday’s rebound.

Since Aug 1, the key benchmark index has fallen some 9.5% from 1,558.01 points but many blue chip stocks have fallen much more.

Indeed, an analysis of the 30 component members of the FBM KLCI showed more than 10 stocks losing over 10% each. They comprised a mixed bag of blue chip stocks ranging from construction, banking, utilities and conglomerates.

The biggest loser was Gamuda Bhd, which slumped 23% between Aug 1 and yesterday, likely due to its high level of foreign shareholding.

A high level of foreign shareholding serves as a double-edged sword. In good times, these stocks see higher buying interest but in times of uncertainty, foreign investors make a quick beeline for the exit doors, resulting in indiscriminate selling activities.

However, analysts are still recommending a “buy” on Gamuda. According to an analyst, despite its high level of foreign shareholding, Gamuda’s outlook is resilient as it is relatively unaffected by external factors and has a high ability to clinch contracts.

“There are many uncertainties in the market yet the downside for Gamuda is limited. Construction companies’ outlook is restricted to domestic factors. The current driving factor for this company is its future earnings from its MRT tunnelling works. This is a well managed company,” said the analyst.

The other top losers among the FBM KLCI component companies were MMHE Holdings Bhd (-19.7%), CIMB Group Holdings Bhd (-18.4%), Hong Leong Bank Bhd (-17.5%), Tenaga Nasional Bhd (-17.4%), Petronas Chemicals Group Bhd (-16.6%), Hong Leong Financial Group Bhd (-15.3%), Genting Bhd (-14.1%), Sime Darby Bhd (-10.7%) and MISC Bhd (-10.5%).

Analysts noted that most of the stocks also had high levels of foreign shareholding, especially CIMB, Genting and Sime Darby, although Sime Darby’s share price was also pressured by its recent purchase of a 30% stake in Eastern & Oriental Bhd.

Nonetheless, three stocks managed to chalk up gains during this period. Telekom Malaysia Bhd rose 2.2%, followed by DiGi.com Bhd with 0.9% and PLUS Expressway Bhd, which edged up a marginal 0.5%.

Other stocks that fell much less than the FBM KLCI included Petronas Gas Bhd (-0.2%), Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd (-1.9%), Petronas Dagangan Bhd (-2%), Maxis Bhd (-3.1%), Malayan Banking Bhd (-3.4%), British American Tobacco Malaysia Bhd (-4.4%) and YTL Corp Bhd (-4.8%).

With so many blue chips beaten down, is it time to bargain hunt?

No, said Dr Nazri Khan, head of retail research at Affin Investment Bank Bhd.

“It is too early to predict the current market condition as the 0.6% increase is merely a corrective rebound. The market will be testing its year-to-date low at the 1,400 level for the FBM KLCI. We are merely seeing the first leg of the rally. We will then witness another two to three tests and this may take awhile,” he told The Edge Financial Daily yesterday.

Nazri said it’s currently best to “stay away from shares with high foreign shareholding” such as Genting Malaysia Bhd and YTL as they are open to market backlash.

Instead, he said investors should focus on defensive stocks such as telcos, consumers and healthcare as these “recession resilient businesses are very predictable”.

According to Nazri, investors and analysts are waiting for Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke’s statement and budget.

“It will be an important factor over the next few weeks,” he said.

Analysts expect the downtrend in global equities to continue, as the lack of political leadership in Europe continues to raise market concerns over a looming global financial crisis should the monetary union break up.

“While this scenario appears fairly remote at this juncture, the developments on this front so far do not suggest an end to the crisis soon,” noted an analyst, who expects more volatility ahead.

Meanwhile, HwangDBS expects confidence to only return when US and China data point towards better growth prospects and once there are signs of resolution to the European debt crisis.

“We fear that the latter is unlikely to happen in the near term. Meanwhile, Asian markets could test new lows on eurozone jitters,” it said in a report.

The report added that “indeed the markets are falling” in the same way as in April to May last year when talk of a global double- dip recession first surfaced.

“The eurozone was at its worst with euro/US dollar at 1.2 and world equity valuations hitting Bear Stearns levels and lower. The current situation may be different as recession risks are higher and as the confidence placed in the Fed’s QE programmes with unemployment rates still running high, and the eurozone crisis, which is into its second year has deepened and proliferated” it added.

It further added that the best scenario right now would be for markets to test the 10-year low valuations which is another 7% downside from current levels.

HwangDBS said Malaysia is currently trading at above the “Bear Stearns collapse” levels. It added that Malaysia is a defensive market and volatility is low compared with other markets as it is supported by local pension funds.

“We expect the government to push ahead with its infrastructure projects in view of the weak external demand. Hence, we still favour the construction sector which is trading at levels well below the previous pre-elections cycle high. Malaysian banks are also holding up better than regional banks due to increased fundraising activity and regional exposure. While banks and industrial conglomerates will bear most of the downside risks if the de-risking trend persists, Malaysia will still outperform in a risk-averse environment,” it said.


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, September 22, 2011.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.theedgemalaysia.com
Publish date:23/09/11

Cosco: Expect Challenging Environment to Persist (citi)

Cosco Corporation (Singapore) (COSC.SI)
Price (21 Sep 11) S$1.02
Target price S$0.90 from S$1.50
Expected share price return -11.3%
Expected dividend yield 1.8%
Expected total return -9.6%

Expect Challenging Environment to Persist
 EPS revision — We cut our earnings forecast by 31-32% over 2012-13E to factor in weaker orderbook prospects and heightened margin erosion in both ship and rig building. Our revised assumptions reduce orderbook forecast by 23-40% to ~S$2bn in 2012-13 and further lower margin forecast by another 80-90 bps to 9-11% for 2012- 13E. Despite the share underperformance, we think it is too early to turn positive given lack of visibility and likelihood of more downward revision.

 Key challenges —i) Inability to capitalize profitably on its record offshore orderbook. Scope of product wins over the past year (maiden drillship contract, jack up involving different designs) implies further provision risks. ii) Lackluster BDI suggest volume of new build contracts and ASP will remain depressed. Cosco’s product scope is limited to bulk carriers, therefore it has to compete on pricing in return for cashflow iii) Significantly YoY gross margin increase for shipbuilding in 1H11 is unlikely to be sustained since 2012 E will begin to recognize a larger portion of lower priced contracts. iv) Speculative customers (e.g. Sevan Drilling) may face difficulty securing sufficient funds upon delivery.

 Order book — In addition to current US$7bn in firm orders, we believe Cosco has also secured LOIs for two semisubs and another 1-2 jackups. Translation into firm orders, however, may be i) less forthcoming in view of the higher concentration of speculators among Cosco’s customer based; and ii) highly dependent on the group’s willingness to accept lower ASP or provide better financing terms. At current run rate, firm has sufficient shipbuilding orderbook to last till 3Q12; offshore is relatively stronger and can endure a longer dry spell period.

 Valuations — We maintain our Sell recommendation and set our target price at S$0.90, based on ~14x 2012E P/E (from 17x previously in view of slower order win prospects). The shares are now trading towards the lower end of the historical valuation, but we see little fundamental catalysts ahead for an upward re-rating.

Investment strategy
We rate COSCO Corp shares Sell/Medium Risk (3M), with a target price of S$0.90. The outlook over the next year or two remains worrisome as it appears that the group cannot capitalize on its stronger than expected order wins. Learning curve challenges, especially for new products (e.g. drillship) continue to underpin
execution risks, and we believe weaker EPS growth prospects have yet to be fully priced in.

Valuation
Our target price of S$0.90 is based on ~14x FY12E P/E. We assign a slightly below mid-cycle valuation to Cosco in view of the group’s weaker orderbook prospects and execution risks (which will continue to underpin margin pressure in the foreseeable future). While Cosco is at a critical inflection point of transitioning from a ship to rig builder, it has not been able to fully leverage upon its offshore angle as its diverse product mix (e.g. drillship, heavy lift vessels, and semisubs) continually presents fresh execution challenges to the group. In addition, Cosco's traditionally high-margin divisions – bulk shipping and ship repair – have also started to face headwinds arising from low shipping rates. Given the prospects of negative earnings surprises and the group's inability to translate its strong order wins, we find it a stretch to justify a premium to mean valuations despite stronger than expected order intake.

Risks
We rate Cosco Corp Medium Risk, in line with the Medium Risk rating suggested by our quantitative risk-rating system, which tracks 260-day historical share price volatility. Upside risks that could cause the shares to outperform our target price include: 1) a sharp fall in costs of un-hedged raw material prices; 2) higher than expected new orders secured for the offshore, conversion, or ship repair divisions; and 3) a sharp improvement in BDI.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Citi Investment Research & Analysis
Publish date:21/09/11

索罗斯:美已陷双底衰退

索罗斯:美已陷双底衰退
财经 天下 2011-09-23 11:29
(纽约22日讯)投资大师索罗斯认为,美国已经陷入双底衰退,经济将远不止放缓,而是双底衰退。

索罗斯接受CNBC访问时,将美国的经济增速放缓置于欧债危机的背景之下,他认为欧债危机是一个流动性问题。

他解释,欧洲现在的形势将比雷曼兄弟破产更为危险,然而欧洲当局将尽一切可能维持共同的欧元体系,因为其他选择方案太可怕以至于难以估量后果。

索罗斯预计,未来欧元区可能有2至3个小国会出现债务违约,并退出欧元区,只要这些国家做好充分准备并有序违约,但如果没有充分准备,那可能会打乱全球金融体系。

但索罗斯认为,高潮不会在9月来临,因为欧元区并未做好准备。

他还说:“他们不得不设立欧洲金融稳定基金(EFSF),不管它代表什么,它也是欧洲债券的一种潜在形式,尽管它还不存在,所以他们希望引入这种共同债券。”

就对希腊的影响而言,索罗斯预计:“到今年12月,如果希腊届时还不能兑现财政改革承诺,他们将无法获得下一笔援助贷款。”


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 南洋商报
Publish date:23/09/11

MSCI国际全球指数陷熊市 全球股市蒸发32兆

MSCI国际全球指数陷熊市 全球股市蒸发32兆
Created 09/23/2011 - 19:17

(吉隆坡23日讯)全球股市连日大跌,摩根士丹利资本国际全球指数(MSCI All-Country World Index)2年多来首度进入熊市,全球股票市值自5月以来已蒸发逾10兆美元(约31.8兆令吉)。

彭博社的报道指出,在重挫4.5%并创下13个月新低277.38之后,MSCI国际全球指数自5月2日攀顶至今,已经下跌超过20%,达到熊市的一般定义。

摩根士丹利资本国际全球发达国家股票指数(MSCI World Index)昨天重挫4.2%,亦已跌入熊市。

摩根士丹利资本国际新兴市场指数(MSCI Emerging Markets Index)早在9月13日就达到下滑20%的熊市门槛。

太平洋投资管理公司执行长艾利安表示,全球即将面临一场金融危机。

投资人担心各国央行救经济的方法已经用罄,美国联储局发布的黯淡预期,再次引发市场对全球经济增长放缓的担忧,全球股市进入熊市。

马股超卖期待反弹

虽然国际分析员指出,全球市场已经进入熊市,但本地市场分析员却乐观相信,已经出现“超买”的马股,不仅还未出现熊市,而且很可能在短期见底后迎来回弹。

肯南嘉投资研究主管陈建尧说,若以跌幅超过20%来定义熊市,马股自1597点的高点滑落后,目前的跌幅还未达20%,因此还不算熊市,反而是属于牛市中的调整期。

马股在昨日跌破1400点后,陈建尧相信,会在1370点至1350点获得扶持,只要可以成功守住,就能进入回弹的格局,过后再迎来新一波调整期。

“虽然有望出现回弹,不过幅度不会超过1475点,之后的调整周期,很可能延续至明年首季杪。”

但陈建尧提醒投资者,仍然要谨慎投资,因为之前股市大跌时,只有三分之一的综指成分股面对卖压,其余三分之二现在才开始新一轮的滑落。

“若要进行吸购,投资者应该买入那些处于三分一且领先滑落的股项。这些公司之前大幅滑落,所以回弹速度也比较快。”

亚股愁云笼罩全线跌

隔夜股市走势低迷及全球股市陷入熊市的言论,加剧亚洲国家的悲观情绪,早盘时,乌云全面笼罩亚股,股市出现全面下跌。

不过,20国集团(G20)对稳定金融系统和刺激经济增长的承诺,却为悲观情绪笼罩的市场,带来一线曙光,此消息宣布后,亚洲股市的跌幅出现收窄,一些股市甚至出现反弹。

另外,中国制造业的疲软数据也加重了经济放缓的担忧。

此外,欧洲债务危机解决方案没有取得重大进展也加大了市场沉重氛围。

道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数周四收盘跌391.01点,至10733.83点,跌幅3.51%,不过在8月初的低点上方收市,免除了道琼斯陷入更低格局的风险,甚至有分析员乐观期待,反弹就在不远处。

标准普尔500指数收盘跌37.20点,至1129.56点,跌幅3.19%;那斯达克综合指数跌82.52点,至2455.67点,跌幅3.25%。

G20信心喊话

隔夜股市大跌,区域股市早盘也出现低迷,在愁云笼罩下一度出现全线下跌的情况。

香港股市早盘下跌,恒生指数几乎创下近三年最大周跌幅,不过随着G20的信心喊话,港股也跟随区域市场回升,最后闭市报17668.83点,跌243.12点,或1.36%。

台湾股市今天盘中跌破7000点大关,券商也促请投资者保守为宜,不过之后跌幅收窄,回返7000点水平,最后闭市报7046.22点,跌259.28点,或3.55%。

马股在昨日跌破1400点心理水平后,早盘跟随区域其他市场,跌幅进一步扩大,并一度跌29.05点,但区域反弹的乐观情绪,带动马股缩小跌幅,最后闭市报1365.94点,跌21.87点,或1.58%,成交量达9亿4831万3300股。

韩国股市今日也表现低迷,首尔综合指数跌至2010年7月以来最低点,该指数本周下跌7.8%,闭市报1697.44点,跌103.11,或5.73%。

马股12倍本益比属偏低

Areca Capital资产总执行长黄德明则指出,马股内许多家公司已经出现“超卖”,即一些公司已经跌破了他的基本面价值,目前的股价已经比平均估值更低,因此很可能意味,谷底已经不远。

“目前马股的平均本益比,介于12至13倍,这是非常廉宜的估值,对很多公司尤其是银行股项来说,这已经低于他们的平均估值。”

黄德明透露,这样的估值已经很低,甚至从基本面分析后可断言,这些公司的股价已经接近底部。

不过,他提醒,由于欧美经济情况低迷,因此还会引发一些不理智的抛售活动,所以预料卖压依然存在,但抛售情况会大为改善。

黄德明透露,这主要是因为市场之前已经过度惊慌,现在可能趋向稳定;虽然仍有很多外资可能会回流‘母体’,但要回流的资金很大部分已经撤离大马,剩下来的可能属于长期投资者。

股价筑底

“当很多资金已经撤离大马之后,股市会开始止跌,若之后可以稳定,就会吸引长期投资者进场。”

黄德明指出,之前的抛售活动,一般上可以总结为两种投资情况:一些投资者脱售高贝他比的股项,买入低贝他比或抗跌股;一些在抛售之后,并没有再投资。

“当中不乏长期投资者,他们如果脱售后,又没有买入,手中便有充裕的现金,为接下来的买入活动提供潜能。”

他预测,马股正一步步接近底,然后一些股票会自我调整价位;由于届时已接近预算案及全国大选时期,因此,基金经理也可能会调整投资组合。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 南洋商报
Publish date:23/09/11

STX OSV: Down but not out (DBSV)

STX OSV Holdings
BUY S$1.21
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.54 (Prev S$ 1.90)

Down but not out
• Fundamentals intact despite recent sell-down; STX OSV is well positioned to leverage on the newbuild cycle
• Order flow momentum hit by macro uncertainties and protracted contracting process
• FY11-13 order wins lowered by 17-19% on slow YTD order flow YTD; FY12/13F earnings cut by 4-10%
• BUY, TP lowered to S$1.54

Longer term fundamentals intact; STX OSV well positioned.
Despite the recent sell down, STX OSV remains well positioned to benefit from a recovery in the newbuild cycle. In our view, the drivers supporting a recovery in demand for newbuild OSVs remain intact, with our latest background checks indicating that enquiry levels remain healthy, with a stable pipeline of potential orders.

Order momentum hit by macro uncertainties. However, in the near term, the ongoing economic uncertainty and skittish capital markets continue to cloud visibility on the timing of orders. Our industry checks reveal a generally more protracted process in finalizing an order. With ~3 months of 2011 left and only NOK5bn of orders in the bag, our view for a stronger 2H 2011 for order wins seem increasingly unlikely.

FY11-13 order wins assumptions trimmed. As such, we have trimmed our FY11-13 order wins assumptions by 17-19% on possible order deferments, leading to a 4%/10% cut in our FY12/13F. We highlight that 48% of our revised FY11 order wins assumption is backed by secured orders, rising to 80% once the Transpetro and Island Offshore orders are made effective.

TP trimmed to S$1.54; maintain BUY. Our TP for STX OSV is adjusted to S$1.54 (prev S$1.90) on a reduced FY12F and lower target PE of 9x (prev 11x) on FY12F. At 5.7x/7.0x FY11/12 PE, valuations are undemanding, supported by strong quarterly results expected over the near term and sustained solid project execution. Maintain BUY on STX OSV for its market dominance in complex and highly customized AHTS and PSVs, solid execution and track record.

Long term demand drivers for newbuild OSVs intact.
We believe that the longer term drivers supporting a recovery in demand for newbuild OSVs (offshore support vessels) remain intact. These include 1) a greater level of offshore E&P activities and a higher contracted rig count, 2) a highly aged OSV fleet, and 3) deeper water / harsher environment offshore E&P activities (refer to our previous reports “Poised for the next wave” dated 23 May 2011 and “Solid execution drives results” dated 15 Aug 2011). Our latest background checks indicate that enquiry levels remain healthy, with no significant change to the pipeline of potential orders.

STX OSV is well positioned in the longer term.
In our view, STX OSV remains well positioned in the longer term for a return of OSV orders:
1) Strong market positioning and track record as a leading builder/designer of complex and highly customised OSVs, particularly large AHTS (>20,000 BHP) and PSVs (>4,500 DWT).

2) Building on its dominant position in high-growth markets such as Brazil, with a second yard in Pernambuco. Once fully developed, this yard could almost triple its current Brazilian capacity, and increase the group’s overall annual production capacity by 24- 30%.

3) 20/80 payment terms are attractive to customers as no further cash outlay is required after the initial down payment until delivery. This essentially provides the customer sufficient lead time to finalise a charter and secure post-delivery bank financing.

4) Still attractive funding costs on STX OSV’s construction loans, at a spread of <100bp over NIBOR.

But uncertain macro and funding environment proving to be the main near term impediments. In the nearer term, however, the on-going economic uncertainty and skittish capital markets continue to cloud visibility on the timing of the materialization of these orders, raising the possibility of deferments. Also, our industry checks reveal a generally more protracted process requiring more rounds of negotiations and various levels of approvals before an order can be finalized.

Order flow momentum has hit a snag. With slightly over 3 months of the year to go, our view for a stronger 2H 2011 for order wins appears increasingly unlikely, on the back of the above.

Indeed, since the beginning of July, STX OSV has secured only NOK750m (approx US$132.5m) in orders. This was for the design and construction of 3 advanced trawlers for Aker Seafoods ASA, to be delivered over 2Q2013 to 1Q2014. This latest batch of contracts brings FY11 YTD orders to NOK5.0bn, accounting for only 38% of our earlier FY11 order wins assumption of NOK13.0bn. Even if we were to include orders yet to be made effective worth c. NOK3.4bn from Transpetro and Island Offshore, this would raise secured orders to 65% of our earlier FY11 assumptions.

Trimming FY11-13 order wins assumptions by 17-19%.
Given an increased probability for deferment of orders, coupled with a generally more protracted contracting process, we have trimmed our FY11 order wins assumption for STX OSV to NOK10.5bn (inclusive of the Transpetro and Island Offshore orders) from NOK13.0bn previously. This implies that 48% of our revised FY11 order wins assumption is backed by secured orders; this will be bumped up to 80% once the Transpetro and Island Offshore orders are made effective. Besides these contracts, we expect another NOK2.1bn worth of orders by year-end.

While we maintain a positive stance on the industry fundamentals in the longer term, this view is clouded by the overhanging macro concerns. As such, we have also reduced our FY12/13 order wins by around 17% each, to NOK10.0bn / NOK12.5bn, from NOK12.0bn / NOK15.0bn previously. These are in line with our recent cuts in the Singapore rigbuilders’ order wins assumptions on the back of macro concerns and a tightening of credit.

FY11F EBIT bumped up to be aligned with company’s guidance at 1H11. To be in line with the company’s guidance as at 1H11, we raise FY11 EBIT margin to 13.4% (EBITDA margin of 14.4%), resulting in an 8% increase in our FY11F earnings.

FY12/13F reduced by 4-10% on reduced order wins assumptions. On the back of our moderated order wins assumptions, FY12/13F revenue are reduced by c. 14% each, to NOK11.6bn/NOK12.4bn. We have tweaked FY12/13F EBIT margin assumption upwards slightly to 11.3%/10.0% as the ongoing streamlining of production process should result in improved operational performance. As such, the corresponding impact to FY12/13F recurring net profit from the moderated order wins assumptions is less drastic, at -4%/ -10% to NOK908m/NOK861m.

Earnings visibility drops significantly beyond FY12.
Based on STX OSV’s estimated orderbook of c. NOK13.0bn as of end 3Q11, this translates into a book-to-bill ratio of 1.13x. We estimate c. 99%/73% of our FY11/12F revenue are backed by secured orders; this falls significantly to only 13% in FY13, implying poor earnings visibility beyond FY12. Partially mitigating this is a quality orderbook, backed by vessel owners/operators involved in the provision of logistics support, offshore construction and field operation services to companies operating globally in the oil and gas industry. This is probably a factor that helps explain the absence of cancellations/defaults by the group’s customers over the past 10 years, even through the 2008/2009 global financial crisis.

Effectiveness of Transpetro/Island Offshore contracts would help improve visibility somewhat. While the NOK3.5bn worth of orders from Transpetro and Island Offshore are yet to be effective, this may have already been priced-in by the market. The confirmation of these orders would improve earnings visibility beyond FY11, increasing our FY12/13F revenue backed by secured orders to 75%/20%.

Reduced TP for STX OSV of S$1.54. On the higher probability of order deferments, we use a lower valuation multiple of 9x PER (prev 11x). This is based on the average forward PE among the large (10.5x) and small/mid cap (7.5x) Singapore-listed yards, given STX OSV’s unique position in the industry. Applying this to a lowered FY12F EPS and partially offset by a stronger NOK vs. SGD exchange rate, we derive a TP of S$1.54 (prev S$1.90).

Fundamentally still a BUY. Despite STX OSV’s market dominance in complex and highly customized AHTS and PSVs, solid execution and track record, it currently trades at 5.7x/7.0x FY11/12 recurring PE, vs. the Singapore-listed small/mid cap historical average forward PE of 8.2x. We believe strong quarterly results over the near term and sustained solid project execution would support valuations, while new orders will provide catalysts. Maintain BUY on STX OSV, with 27% upside to our revised TP.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: DBS Vickers Research
Publish date:22/09/11

再跌22點‧歐美利空連爆‧馬股掙扎尋底

再跌22點‧歐美利空連爆‧馬股掙扎尋底
Created 09/23/2011 - 18:13

(吉隆坡23日訊)馬股綜指兩天猛瀉逾50點,距離7月8日的高峰猛跌超過10%,今日繼續向南,最多曾跌29.34點,投資者擔憂母熊隨時現身,分析員認為,雖然股市受到外圍衝擊而跌跌撞撞,但在本地投資機構賣力扶盤、經濟轉型計劃發酵等防禦機制啟動下,整體來看馬股暫時可逃離熊爪蹂躪。

2天跌逾50點

隔夜歐美股市重挫,使昨日暴跌31點的馬股今早開市不久直線下滑,綜指在約20分鐘內就崩跌29.34點,或是2.11%至1358.47點的全天最低水平。較後20國集團(G20)信心喊話,馬股以至區域市場出現一些趁低吸購活動,綜指跌幅收窄。全天收市時,馬股綜指跌21.87點或1.58%,至1365.94點。

馬股綜指從7月8日的1,594.74點高峰,滑落至昨日收市時的1387.81點,前後下跌206.93點,或是13.0%,距離熊市標準的20%尚有一段距離。

歐美陷困
全球股災導火線

今次全球股災的主要導火線,還是環繞在歐美經濟困境。美國聯邦儲備局日前宣佈以長期國債轉換短期國債,使市場對此措施甚為不滿,美國經濟仍然顯著疲弱,加上歐盟主權債務危機惡化,使全球股市跌得一發不可收拾,這也使今日馬股持續向下調。

市場觀察家認為,目前,馬股受到僱員公積金局等本地投資機構的護盤,加上政府持續推進轉型計劃、預算案效應可能顯現等利好,股市走勢料“跌中向穩”。

肯納格證券分析員表示,過去馬股熊市顯示,除了1987、1990及1991年跌勢較為凌厲,馬股綜指平均每個月下跌8至13.7%,其餘較為普遍的平均跌幅則每月介於3至4%。

他說,目前來看,他們預計綜指平均每月跌幅為6.5%(過去兩個月下跌13%為准),儘管這使投資者驚心動魄,不過,這也可能使熊市早日結束,而不是長期拖延“跌跌”不休的悶局。

分析員指出,適逢全球股市熊影幢幢之際,假如以馬股過去30年的11次熊市紀錄,平均在10個月里下跌43%為准,而今次歷史又再重演,馬股這隻母熊可能會將綜指擊倒拉低至920點,方可罷休!

不過,他強調,投資者先不必過於驚慌,因為上述數據僅是憑著過去30年紀錄平均所得粗略估計,況且股市的跌勢與幅度,還要考量其他的因素,特別是國內外經濟情況,及馬股下跌的速度也是主要關鍵。

他補充,若以較積極層面來看,馬股甚至全球股市急速重挫,將可大幅度減少進一步下跌的空間,或是熊市也會更快地結束,就是所謂的“跌得快也起得快”的道理。

技術層面而言,馬股綜指當前的支持水平落在1380點,一旦失守將很可能回跌至1312至1306點較強的支持點。短期馬股走勢料將動蕩不靖,不過,任何劇跌將可能是趁機吸購好股的良機,因為它的風險兌回酬比重與幾率已大幅度改善和縮減。

馬股綜指當前上升阻力,則落在1400至1433點,或是其10天滑順移動平均線。

亞股欲振乏力

亞洲股市週五延續跌勢,隔夜歐美股市繼續走跌帶來壓力,特別是市場擔心全球市場決策者無力阻止全球經濟再陷衰退。不過,G20發表“聞聲救市”宣言,穩定了不少投資者的情緒。

香港恆生指數開市隨即暴跌超過400點,中國上證綜指盤中也下跌1.18%。

台灣股市開盤隨即下跌逾200點,7000點大關一度失守,全天收市時跌幅收窄,報7046.22點,跌幅達259.28點。韓國首爾股市也抵擋不了這波股災的衝擊,使綜合指數跌幅一度高達4.83%,它全天以1697.44點收市,跌103.11點。

昨日較早收盤的菲律賓股市,今日“補跌”,深跌5.13%。

日本因假日休市,暫時避過一劫。




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 星洲日報
Publish date:23/09/11

Signs of China slowdown add to dim global outlook

Signs of China slowdown add to dim global outlook
China manufacturing data jolt jittery financial markets as global economic outlook darkens

Elaine Kurtenbach, AP Business Writer, On Friday 23 September 2011, 19:22
SHANGHAI (AP) -- Signs that powerhouse China is slowing have spooked global markets and sharpened fears that the world economy will not escape another recession.

The dramatic stock market fallout from one small, preliminary survey of Chinese manufacturers far exceeded the data's importance, analysts said Friday. The world's No. 2 economy is slowing, as expected, but growth will remain relatively strong, they say.

If nothing else, the market rout that began Thursday and continued Friday reflects China's growing importance for world growth, said Xianfang Ren, chief China economist for IHS Global Insight.

A preliminary reading of HSBC's index of manufacturing for September, released about a week before the final survey is due, was at a two-month low of 49.4 and like August's reading of 49.9 is under 50 -- indicating that activity is contracting. An official manufacturing index that surveys a bigger number of companies is also due about the end of September.

The HSBC survey and weak indicators from other major economies prompted panicked selling by global investors afraid that governments hamstrung by debt crises, inflation and unemployment may be unable to avert a recession.

But the HSBC survey is only a monthly snapshot, ill-suited to indicate long-term trends, said Ren.

It also is heavily weighted toward exporters, who are bound to be feeling cautious given the current global outlook but is not a reliable measure of the broader economy, said CLSA analyst Andy Rothman.

"If you look at other measures of what's happening in China ... everything is cooling down, but not dramatically, and there's still strong growth," Rothman said. Most forecasters pick economic growth of above 9 percent this year and between 8.5 percent and 9 percent next year.

As one of the few big economies that is expanding at a rapid clip, China's role in powering world growth is significant. That's especially so for nations such as Australia that are heavily dependent on China's voracious demand for the minerals they export and for export reliant economies in Asia including Singapore, Taiwan and Japan. The Conference Board forecasts China to account for about a third of the increase in global GDP this year.

Yet despite China's rising power, experts say its economy is still not big or strong enough to fully compensate for meltdowns elsewhere, since its own investment and spending is only one-sixth that of the European Union and United States.

"From a global perspective, China's domestic demand is still way too small to offset the impact of a recession" in Europe and the U.S., Deutsche Bank economist Ma Jun said in a report.

To make up for a 3 percentage point drop in growth in those economies, China would have to grow by 18 percent this year, he says.

"This is mission impossible."

Some worry that China's economic planners in their zeal to reduce inflation from near three-year highs could overshoot by cooling the economy too much. August's inflation figure of 6.2 percent, down from 6.5 percent in July, suggests that Beijing's inflation battle may be yielding results that would allow it greater leeway for policies aimed at keeping growth on track.

A drop in global demand for China's exports could also wallop its economy, as it did in 2008, though domestic factors such as consumer spending and investment in infrastructure are increasingly driving growth.

Most economists still downplay any risk of a so-called "hard landing" in China that would darken the global outlook.

Such fears are "unwarranted," said HSBC's own economist Hongbin Qu. "Resilient domestic demand is sufficient to support around 8.5 percent to 9 percent growth in the coming quarters."

China's advantages over other major economies include its relatively low level of debt despite growing worries over local government borrowing, its cash-rich corporate sector and pent-up demand among its newly affluent consumers.

Massive stimulus spending launched in response to the 2008 global crisis is still washing through the economy, driving sales for both heavy industries like steel and cement, and light ones such as appliances, clothing and home furnishings.

"Chinese companies are making money and the private consumption is increasing. If we assume government spending remains at the current level, the economy will continue to grow," said Peng Yunliang, a strategist with Shanghai Securities.

Earlier this week, the International Monetary Fund cut its growth forecast for China this year, but only by one tenth of a percentage point to 9.5 percent.

In revising its outlook for China, the IMF reiterated its advice to Beijing to do more to spur consumer demand, in part by improving social services to help relieve pressures on families to save disproportionate amounts of their income to cover their medical, education and retirement needs.

Researchers Yu Bing in Beijing and Fu Ting in Shanghai contributed to this report


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: sg.finance.yahoo.com
Publish date:23/09/11
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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