Saturday, September 3, 2011

2011-0829-57金錢爆(柏南奇關鬼門)



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date:29/08/11

S-Reits and its investment opportunities

Business Times - 03 Sep 2011

WEALTH INSIGHT
S-Reits and its investment opportunities

Apart from offering a high dividend yield of 6.5% currently, it also offers a stable yield that will keep growing

By Derek Tan
Analyst
DBS Vickers Securities

WHEN planning for the golden years, it is important to ensure that one's retirement nest egg is able to support one's ideal retirement lifestyle. In practical terms, that means putting the retirement funds to work, to make the funds last longer than it would otherwise. This also means that the retirement stash has to weather inflation, which can significantly erode the real value of the funds.

Inflation has averaged 2.8 per cent over the past decade. Therefore, it is important to protect one's retirement nest egg through investments that yield enough income to keep up with inflation. In addition, this income should be stable, with regular payouts, which can serve as additional income to supplement the retirement funds.

Attractive options

With these considerations in mind, Singapore real estate investment trusts (S-Reits) stand out as an attractive option for investors looking to stretch their retirement dollars. Apart from offering a high distribution (or dividend) yield of 6.5 per cent currently, S-Reits also offer a stable yield that is expected to continue growing.

Regular payouts are an added benefit: S-Reits have either quarterly or semi-annual distribution policies. S-Reits also allow investors to invest in a professionally managed portfolio of income producing real estate, indirectly allowing them to reap the rental income and growth in value of the underlying commercial properties that most investors would not otherwise have access to and without the hassle of having to manage the properties themselves. In addition, as S-Reits are traded in the equity market, it offers liquidity that one might not get as a landlord.

Encouraging results

As an equity class, while prices may fluctuate according to changes in market sentiment, share price performance of S-Reits have been encouraging as over the past two years, the FSTREI Index (a Reit Index which measures the price performance of S-Reits) has outperformed both the STI (Straits Times Index) and the FSTREH (Real Estate Developers Index) by 3 per cent and 10 per cent respectively.

S-Reits have also proven their mettle in the recent equity market volatility by falling only 5 per cent, in comparison to the 12 per cent and 20 per cent fall in the STI and FSTREH.

This relative out-performance, in our view, can be attributed to S-Reits' good income visibility, stability and their prospective high distribution yields. Current S-Reits yields of 6.5 per cent are attractive. Spreads of 5 per cent against the ten-year Singapore government bond which presently is at 1.6 per cent, is also higher than its historical average.

This is also higher than other yield benchmarks such as the Central Provident Fund (CPF) ordinary and special account interest rates of 2.5 per cent and 4.0 per cent respectively.

Adding to the appeal of S-Reits are tax regulations that make it mandatory for S-Reits to distribute 90 per cent or more of their taxable income to shareholders as dividends annually. This ensures a stable and regular income flow for investors. In actual practice, most S-Reits have maintained a 100 per cent payout ratio record. Moreover, the dividends are tax-free in the hands of individuals.

Hedge Instrument

S-Reits offer relatively strong income visibility for investors as their distributions are backed by rental income earned as landlords. S-Reits tend to derive rental income through the ownership of a portfolio of properties and having individual tenants each contributing to a small percentage of total portfolio earnings, thus further diversifying its income.

In fact, faced with a positive rental outlook, S-Reits are expected to continue growing its yields at an average rate of 5.2 per cent in 2011, which is above inflation rate, highlighting S-Reits' effectiveness as an inflation hedge instrument.

To complement their underlying portfolio growth, growing dividend yields are complemented by S-Reits ability to acquire assets that contribute to distributions over time. In this respect, we saw S-Reits being active in acquiring properties to expand their portfolios and this behaviour is a major contributor to the sector's earnings' growth potential.

Properties acquired are primarily in the Asia-Pacific region, and they range from commercial assets to logistic properties and retail malls. We also note that there have been more offshore acquisitions in the Asia Pacific region as S-Reits look to jurisdictions that offer higher asset yields, which is positive as apart from offering higher earnings growth, these overseas acquisitions also help to diversify their portfolio concentration in Singapore.

Underpinning the S-Reit sector's stability is a robust regulatory framework set by the Singapore authorities that emphasises transparency and financial prudence. S-Reits' balance sheets remain robust and hovers at a current financial leverage average of 34 per cent, which is low and compares favourably against the average longer term optimal gearing target of between 40-45 per cent. (S-Reits are able to leverage up to a high of 60 per cent if they have obtained a credit rating from any one of the credit rating agencies, if not leverage ratio will be subjected to a limit of 35 per cent).

The current prudent balance sheet position allows S-Reits to pursue acquisition opportunities or development projects in order to grow their portfolios through taking on further debt.

However, we believe that S-Reit managers, in complementing their growth strategy, will endeavour to continue to manage their capital wisely, apart from just utilising their debt headroom for acquisitions. They will also periodically tap the equity market for additional capital. This strategy in our view is a boon for income investors who are looking for a stable and regular source of income in the long term.

Hospitality, retail

Amongst the various S-Reit sectors, hospitality and retail Reits are expected to perform better than the rest.

We believe that rental growth stemming from exposures in the hospitality and retail sectors (with average distribution growths of 11 per cent and 6 per cent respectively) offer the highest earnings upside given their positive outlook after the opening of the two integrated resorts.

We continue to expect strong demand for rooms stemming from sustained record visitor arrivals in the coming months. As such, hotel earnings should continue to see upside. We also see retail Reits enjoying the spillover effect from the buoyant tourism outlook.

This comes on top of the current positive consumer sentiment, and should inevitably spur higher retail spending in the coming months.

In terms of stability, the outlook for industrial S-Reits remains one of the more stable ones amongst the various sectors owing to a larger proportion of longer-termed lease expiries from tenants who typically rent an entire industrial property (known as master lessee) or those who take larger spaces.

Looking ahead, we expect industrial landlords to enjoy a slight up-tick in earnings and distributions from expected positive rental reversions on the back of a healthy demand for industrial space, coupled with high tenant retention and high average occupancies at their properties.

Office Reits

Commercial office Reits should enjoy positive recent news flow of robust Grade A rental outlook as they look towards narrowing the spread between expiring and re-contracted leases, with newly completed buildings also seeing high take-up rates and those in the pipeline also reporting healthy pre-commitment rate and positive net absorption in 1H11.

However, we are less sanguine about its prospects in the nearer term as earnings recovery in office Reits would only be felt from 2012 onwards as they are currently renewing rents signed in the previous peak in 2007-2008.

What are the potential drawbacks? On the back of current market volatility, S-Reits unit share prices might fall to changes in market sentiment, but we have noted that while share prices have fallen recently, performance continue to remain more resilient compared to the STI and FSTREH.

In addition, rising interest rates might lead to higher interest costs and cut into the profits of S-Reits, however we believe that this risk is likely to be mitigated in the shorter term as S-Reit managers have taken the prudent step in locking in a majority of their loans into fixed-rated debt, thus any impact on rising interest costs is not likely to be excessive in our view.

In summary, we believe that S-Reits, with their high yields, stable income growth and regular dividends coupled with its effectiveness as an inflation hedge, is an attractive investment class that one should have as part of a retirement portfolio.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:03/09/11

Chijmes being put up for sale

Business Times - 03 Sep 2011


Chijmes being put up for sale

Owner Suntec Reit appoints Colliers International to market iconic property through expression of interest

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

THE iconic Chijmes along Victoria Street is being put up for sale. BT understands that owner Suntec Real Estate Investment Trust (Suntec Reit) has appointed Colliers International to market the property through an expression-of-interest exercise.

However, Suntec Reit is expected to sell the asset only if it gets a good price.

The property was last valued for $134 million at the end of last year. It has 79,794 square feet of net lettable area, and generated revenue of $2.6 million and net property income of $1.8 million for the second quarter ended June 30, 2011.

The development includes several conservation buildings and two gazetted national monuments - Chijmes Hall (the former CHIJ Chapel) and Caldwell House.

'This has presented restrictions for the Reit's manager, which may also have found it taxing to devote so much resources and time to what is a relatively small asset in its portfolio,' said an industry observer.

Suntec Reit acquired Chijmes for $128 million in late 2005 and since then, the Reit has made several major acquisitions - such as one-third stakes in One Raffles Quay and the first phase of Marina Bay Financial Centre.

'Right now, Chijmes may be a bit dated and a new owner may be more willing to pump in resources to spruce it up a little, rejuvenate it. The new owner could change the tenant mix and increase rentals,' said the industry observer.

Chijmes is on a site with a remaining lease of about 79 years. It has 97 car park lots and is located opposite Raffles City and the City Hall MRT Station.

Tenants include Lei Garden Restaurant and Harry's Bar.

Suntec Reit bought Chijmes from a partnership involving Low Keng Huat, Jetaime Investments and Lei Garden.

The consortium paid $26.8 million for the 1.4 ha site at a state tender in 1990 and pumped in a further $100 million to restore the asset. Chijmes won the Merit Award in the Unesco Asia-Pacific Heritage Awards for Cultural Heritage Conservation in 2002.

For Q2 2011, Suntec Reit posted distribution per unit of 2.532 cents, marginally up from 2.528 cents in the same year-ago period. Income available for distribution rose 22.3 per cent to $56.2 million.

Gross revenue dipped 1.8 per cent year on year to $61.3 million in Q2 2011 due to weaker office and retail revenues.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:03/09/11

S-REIT: Safe and Sound(DBSV)

Singapore REITs
Safe and Sound
• S-REITs showed its mettle in recent market volatility
• Strength in balance sheet, preference in Retail and
selected Industrial REITs for stability
• Top picks – CMT, MCT, MLT, Cache and FCOT

S-REIT – resilience amidst volatility. In the recent equity market sell off, the FSTREI (S-REIT index) while corrected by some 5% versus the 12% and 25% fall in the STI and FSTREH (property developers index) respectively. S-REITs now offer a prospective a FY11-12F distribution yield of 6.5%-6.7%, which represent a 500 bps spread above the long-term government bond. It is now closer to - 1SD of the sector historical yield trading range. With earnings forecasted to be growing steadily and supported by an expected strong S$, we believe that S-REITs continue to offer a compelling investment proposition for income investors.

Seeking sustainable growth-preference in Retail and selected Industrial REITs. We re-iterate our preference for retail REITs. They should continue to deliver earnings growth in the coming quarters on the back of sustained positive consumer sentiment. Even in the event of an economic downturn, retail REITs’ exposure in necessity shopping (eg. Supermarkets, F&B outlets) have kept earnings fairly stable. Industrial S-REITs also offer strong stability and visibility given a larger proportion of their income deriving from master-lease structures. While we continue to see Hospitality REITs delivering good numbers going into a seasonally busier 2H11, we believe that growth momentum should be slowing down given a higher base effect.

Balance sheet robust; unlikely to see a repeat of previous round of equity-fund raisings back in 2008/2009. Post GFC in 2008/09, S-REITs have beefed up their balance sheets, emerging stronger to better weather any potential economic downturn. Debt maturity profiles have improved, with annual maturities backed by stable annual cash flows from rental income. The low interest rate environment also enabled S-REITs to lower average debt costs and now have almost 84% of their debt tied on fixed rated loans. As such, a scenario of a 50bps hike in rates, have a rather muted -2.2% to 0.0% impact on FY12 distributable income.

Picks in Retail and selected Industrial REITs. We see value emerging in CMT (BUY, TP S$2.05) which is our big cap pick with attractive FY11-12F yields of c5.3-5.9%. MCT (BUY, TP S$1.09) is attractive for its strong organic growth coming off from a first renewal cycle at its Vivo city retail mall. Amongst the industrial REITs, MLT (BUY, TP S$1.07) stands out post an active 1H11 and is poised to deliver strong earnings growth into 2H11. We continue to see relative value amongst the smaller cap S-REITs - Cache (BUY, TP S$1.07) and FCOT (BUY, TP S$1.05), which offer higher than average yields with limited earnings downside.

Resilient asset class. Stock prices have also demonstrated its resilient nature – in the recent equity market sell off, the FSTREI (S-REIT index) while falling by 5%, it is lesser than the 12% and 25% fall in the STI and FSTREH (property developers index) respectively. On a YTD basis, the FSTREI outperformed both the
STI and FSTREH by 2% and 15%.

S-REITs continue to offer stability. Current global economic uncertainties and volatile market conditions has made investors to look towards equities that offer stable returns and S-REITs, in our view, fit that criteria perfectly. S-REITs offer currently offer a prospective FY12 yield of 6.5% - which is over 500 bps spread above the long-term government bond. This is an attractive level as its currently closer to the –1SD of the sector’s historical trading range (long term average spread of c3.0%).

Furthermore, S-REITs earnings have proven to be relatively defensive and is expected to continue growing, while a strong S$ and supported by a low interest rate environment are key attributes that we believe will continue to support investor interests in the sector going forward.

Growing yields over FY10-12. Looking ahead, we are forecasting the S-REIT sector to deliver an average FY10-12F DPU CAGR of 5.2%, ranging from -3.0% to 11.0%, with organic growth strongest from the retail and hospitality sectors, with hospitality REITs expected to deliver the higher end of growth expectations. Industrial REITs are also expected to deliver decent 5.2% growth on the back of completion of acquisitions, which should start contributing to earnings in 2H11 and beyond.

Retail REITs, selected Industrial REITs still the preferred sectors that offer good growth with low earnings volatility. In terms of preference, as per our previous reports in “S-REITs still a growth story” and “Sustainable Growth”, we re-literate our preference towards Retail REITs and selected Industrial S-REITs whom we believe offer sustainable growth through organic and inorganic means which is backed by an earnings structure that has relatively lower volatility in earnings.

We believe that Retail REITs are likely to enjoy robust organic growth through continued positive rental reversions supported by sustained positive retail sales growth and low employment rate in Singapore. In addition, we expect an uplift in retail sales from the influx of tourists in 2H11, a seasonally stronger half for tourism due to the school holidays.

Industrial REITs, likewise should also see relatively stable earnings, as they tend to have a larger proportion of its earnings tied on long leases, with annual / CPI-pegged stepups, boosting income visibility.

Hospitality REITs should continue to see positive RevPAR growth in 2011 – we have seen RevPAR rising by close to 11% YTD to S$210/night (vs DBSV expectations of 12% for full year). 2H11 earnings should continue to remain positive with high occupancies and room rates from the strong inflows from leisure tourists and the annual Sept FormulaOne event. However, growth is expected to moderate due to a higher base effect.

Our view on Office REITs remain moderate, as they are expected to continue reporting negative rental reversions. Nevertheless, we note that the narrowing gaps between passing and signing rents, as such their earnings growth profile should remain pretty flattish in 2H11.

A strong Singapore dollar to continue to weigh on S-REITs profitability. The Singapore dollar has appreciated over 6% YTD against the USD and is one of the strongest performing Asian currencies YTD. Looking ahead, DBS economist expects the Singapore dollar to continue to remain strong and remain on an appreciation trend.

S-REITs distributions are paid out in Singapore dollars, while their earnings source could come from a diverse source due to their multi-jurisdiction exposures. As such, S-REITs with overseas exposure, should result in translation losses as we have seen in recent quarters; with underlying income stronger compared to reported earnings.

REITs with majority offshore assets (>50% of income from overseas exposures) include CRCT, a-itrust and ART they are likely to feel the impact of a strengthening S$ against various regional currencies esp. Rp and RMB and in the case of ART, a basket of currencies of USD, EUR and Pound. We note that while MLT, has also has a large portion of their income in overseas currencies (HKD, RMB, JPY, KRW). However, we note that they have substantially hedged their incomes.

Earnings sensitivity exercise – Actual better than perception
Investor’s perception of S-REIT’s earnings risk has always been more bearish than what did actually transpire. While various S-REIT sub-sectors saw different magnitude in spot rental/room rate declines, we note that retail sector was the most resilient, which remained pretty flattish. Industrial REITs seeing 5-10% decline in average rentals, office REITs saw a hefty >50% decline in average asking rents from the peak while hospitality REITs saw RevPAR declining over 25% before bottoming out.

From a net property income perspective, earnings however remained rather steady, where S-REITs - delivering c4% growth in net property income (ranging from –7% to +11%); albeit part of this growth is attributed to its acquisition activities.

Distribution per unit (DPU), however, fell between 20-60% due to dilutive equity issues (CMT, CCT, K-REIT and MLT) to recapitalize & repair their balance sheet back in 2008/2009. Hospitality players (CDREIT, ART) saw declines of close to 15- 20% due to lower occupancy and room rates from slower business travel and visitor arrivals.

Looking ahead, we believe the scenario of 2008/2009 GFC happening is unlikely, given that there were different market dynamics at play back then. Looking ahead, we see minimal downside to earnings for S-REITs given their phased rental expiry profile, which limits any potential downside risk to reversion in any particular year, coupled with the support of long term leases in certain Industrial/Office and Retail REITs, provides added stability and visibility to distributions.
In our appended scenario analysis, taking into account the respective rental expiries and if we were to assume up to a 10% haircut in topline in FY12 sector wide, we estimate a maximum 6.0% decline in distributions - with the hospitality REITs potentially seeing the most downside if visitors arrivals slow due to its shorter stay profile.






Robust capital Structure
Since the global financial crisis in 2009, S-REITs managers have been conservative in their capital management approach, which is a positive step towards achieving greater financial stability and a more resilient balance sheet. Trends we note include S-REITs managers taking advantage of current low interest rate environment to term out their debt maturity profile and fix a larger portion of their debt into fixed rated loans.

Average leverage ratio (or Gearing) of 34.8%. S-REIT sector’s aggregate leverage still remains relatively conservative at c34.8%, which is within most S-REIT managers’ comfortable range of between 40-45%. Apart from purely looking at gearing where it is one of the more emphasized financial metric that investors use to assess a REIT’s financial stability and flexibility, we believe it is also important to look at other financial aspects – i.e. debt profile, interest cover and short term liquidity positions to have a holistic view in assessing a REITs financial structure.

(i) An extended Debt expiry profile
As of 2Q11, we note that a substantial amount of S-REIT debt has already been refinanced, a result of early refinancing activities undertaken by various S-REIT managers over the prior quarters. The average length of debt expiry now stands at 3.8 years (extended from 2.8 years back a year ago) as S-REIT managers look towards terming out its debt maturing profile. Out of a total debt of S$20.1bn, only 4% is left for refinancing in 2011, with the 2012-2015 seeing a well spread out maturity profile of c20% yearly, a profile that believe is sustainable as it limits exposure to any unexpected shocks to interest rate hikes that might occur in the years down the road.

Taking a closer look at S-REIT debt expiries in 2012, we note that major refinancing activities are skewed towards the larger market cap S-REITs like Ascott REIT (ART), CapitaCommercial Trust (CCT), CapitaMall Trust (CMT) and Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) and it forms only 24% - 34% of their respective total debt, which we believe should be manageable. While the likes of Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) will be looking to renew its bullet loan of S$750m, 100% of its total debt by year end 2012, we understand that they are already in early discussions with bankers to refinance its loan, with an aim to break it down into smaller sizes and differing maturity tenures.

(ii) Improved liquidity
The trend of S-REITs terming out their debt maturity profile is a positive development that S-REIT managers have undertaken, in our view. While it aims to reduces the concentration and refinancing risk of having a large amount of debt expiring in any one year, it also enables the REIT to an extent where it is financially efficient, to peg its underlying cash flows to debt expiring commitments.

In the unlikely event that banks demand repayment upon debt expiry in 2012, based on our latest estimates of S-REIT’s FY12 distributions, and taking into account their short term obligations and assets as per 2Q11 results, we find that most S-REITs’ cashflows have adequately covered FY12 debt repayment obligations, S-REITs that have ‘negative cover’, either have current plans to refinance the loans, or the negative covers are insignificant as a % to their market capitalization.

Interest coverage ratio remain high; distributions limited impact from interest rate hikes S-REITs Interest coverage ratios have remained relatively comfortable in our view with an average of >3.0x, supported by its relatively stable cashflows, prudent gearing levels and low interest costs. Even in an assumed scenario of a 10% haircut in renewal rents in 2012, we estimate that average interest coverage ratios are unlikely to dip by >5 % and still stay at above 3.0x, which is healthy.




Fixed-rated debt limits risks of higher interest costs – a boon or bane? The current low interest rate environment current has prompted S-REIT managers to refinance their expiring loans and also to swap/fix their loans into fixed-rated debt. At this juncture, an estimated 84% of its total debt taken by S-REITs is fixed-rated loans. One may argue that S-REITs could potentially enjoy lower interests cost from having a larger proportion of floating rate-debt given expectations of a pro-longed low interest rate environment. However, we believe that the more holistic consideration is the improved income visibility to SREITs distributions going forward, mitigating the impact of any potential hikes in interest rates to distributions to unitholders. Based on our sensitivity analysis in the table below, a 50 bps increase in interest rates will have minimal impact (estimated at –0.0% to –2.3%) on S-REITs FY12 distributable income.




Price and valuations
Recent stock market decline has brought yields back to 6.5%, which we believe is attractive. Our stock preference takes into account individual S-REITs’ ability to deliver sustained earnings growth in our view over the coming quarters, with limited downside to earnings and also taking into account its current price to book value (P/BV) valuation vis-a-vis its long-term earnings growth potential (FY10-13F DPU CAGR).

Our top picks are :
CapitaMall Trust (BUY, TP S$2.05). After recent price weakness, we see value emerging in CMT again. Currently offering FY11-12 yields of 5.2-5.8%, as one of Singapore’s largest retail landlord, With over 60% of earnings derived from its suburban malls over Singapore, we believe that CMT can continue to deliver sustain earnings growth in the coming quarters. We expect an uptick in earnings upon the completion of AEI at J-Cube in 2012.

Mapletree Commercial Trust (BUY, TP S$1.09) . MCT see relative value coming from its strong acquisition pipeline including Mapletree Business City with a total NLA of over 5.1m sf that its Sponsor has lined up for the Reit. However, with a gearing ratio of 39.5%, we believe the trust would have to tap a combination of debt and equity funding for any new purchases. Meanwhile growth from rental revenue is also likely to be strong with the completion of ARC, step up rental in MLHF and positive rental reversion from Vivo City.

Mapletree Logistics (BUY, TP S$1.07). MLT to start reporting stronger quarterly numbers on the back of expected contribution from recent acquisition completions. We continue to see potential earnings surprises that could come in the form of further acquisitions that the manager is reviewing currently.

Acquisitions could continue to feature but expected to be selective given its current relatively high gearing of c40%. We note that sponsor, Mapletree Investments has over S$300m worth go logistics space that are completing/ completed that could be injected in the medium.

Amongst the smaller cap S-REITs, we see relative value in Frasers Commercial Trust (BUY TP S$1.05). FCOT is currently offering FY11/12F yields of 7.4-7.9% and is trading at a at a discount at NAV 0.6x, the cheapest S-REIT in our coverage universe. We see opportunities for the group to enhance their DPU through asset enhancements and more capita management. With a gearing of 38%, possible acquisitions is also viable

Cache Logistics Trust (BUY, TP S$1.11). Trading at a FY11-12F yield of 8.2-8.8%, which is over 200 bps over the sector average and 150 bps above industrial REIT peers. We believe that the market is not recognizing Cache for its (i) transparent earnings structure from master-leases with annual step ups and (ii) growth opportunities given from a visible pipeline from its sponsor CWT that could potentially grow its portfolio in excess of 80%.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: DBS Vickers Research
Publish date:02/09/11

GLP: Developing a new growth wing (DBSV)

Global Logistic Properties
BUY S$1.67
Price Target : S$ 2.80

Developing a new growth wing
• JV with CPPIB to develop Japan logistics assets
• Creating a new source of recurring income
• Maintain Buy with TP S$2.80

New development JV fund with CPPIB. GLP has formed a JV with Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) to set up a development fund to develop and hold quality modern logistics facilities in Japan. The fund is structured as an open-fund with a long-term investment horizon. The equity commitment is US$500m of which each partner will put in US$250m over 3 years. Based on a target leverage of 50% after stabilization, AUM could be as high as US$1b. The fund will be GLP’s exclusive development vehicle in Japan and is also CPPIB’s first direct real estate investment in the country. It is intended to hold both multi-tenanted and BTS facilities in the greater Tokyo and Osaka areas.

Establising a new and recurring income source. The development fund is in line with management’s strategy to tap new opportunities amid the limited supply and strong demand for modern logistics facilities in Japan and where spread between market and yield on cost could be as high as 150-200bps. The first potential development site in Tokyo has been identified. With this vehicle, GLP will be able to generate asset management and development fees as well as potential incentive fees, in addition to development margins and property cashflows. The impact of this is likely to be felt in the medium term when the fund deploys its capital into new developments. Net gearing inclusive of $250m of equity is likely to rise marginally to 23.8% and the group remains well placed to further tap new opportunities with its strong balance sheet.

Maintain Buy. GLP remains a major player in the Asian modern logistics space with pole positions in China and Japan. Our RNAV of $2.80 is based on sum of parts that captures the value of underlying assets as well as reinvestment potential from its balance sheet capacity. Maintain Buy with TP of S$2.80.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: DBS Vickers Research
Publish date:01/09/11

Parkway Life REIT : Assurance in tough times (CIMB)

Parkway Life REIT
OUTPERFORM Maintained
S$1.89 @31/08/11
Target: S$2.05
12-mth price range S$1.90/S$1.53

Assurance in tough times

• Maintain Outperform. Amid global uncertainties and persistent inflationary pressures, PLife is likely to enjoy both DPU stability and upside, owing to its CPIpegged rents and portfolio of long-dated leases. We also expect management to exercise prudence in new partnerships and acquisitions, mitigating risks from nonaccretive M&As. Although current valuations (1.3x P/BV) reflect those positives, we believe its premium pricing can be justified by the assurance of defensive, resilient yields. We maintain our assumptions and DDM-based target price of S$2.05 (discount rate 7.4%), anticipating catalysts from accretive substantially debt-funded acquisitions. We advocate PLife as an ideal inflation hedge.

• Guaranteed rent increases set the backdrop for strong, stable DPU growth. PLife has announced minimum guaranteed rent increases of 5.3% for its Singapore assets for the year commencing 23 Aug 11. We expect another 4% minimum rental increase in Aug 12-13, underpinning 3.4% and 2.7% minimum DPU growth in Aug 11-12 and Aug 12-13 respectively, stronger than for most SREITs.

• Acquisitions in core markets. Management is on the lookout for overseas acquisitions, while exercising prudence in the current environment. We expect more
reasonably priced assets amid global uncertainties and 3-5% DPU accretion from acquisitions. With S$261m debt headroom to a 45% gearing ratio and its strong share price thus far, PLife should be well-positioned to finance its acquisitions.

Growth assurance in adverse conditions
Growth assurance in adverse conditions. We believe PLife’s strongest point is its minimum 2.7-3.4% organic growth till Aug 13, come rain or shine. Not only is PLife’s DPU growth profile rather uncorrelated to property cycles, its minimum 3% average growth is also favourable compared with rental reversions of 2% for most industrial SREITs and projected 2-3% increases for 2012 passing rents for retail S-REITs. PLife’s rent review mechanism for Singapore assets guarantees a 5.3% minimum rent increase for the year commencing 23 Aug 11. We expect another 4.1% minimum rent increase for the year commencing 23 Aug 12. This would translate into 3.4% and 2.7% minimum portfolio growth in Aug 11-12 and Aug 12-13 respectively. PLife’s Singapore assets contribute 65% to its net property income, while most of its Japanese assets have “up only” rental review provisions.

Asset enhancement in Japan a future positive. We expect negotiations to take time though, as asset enhancement for nursing homes requires the consent of nursinghome operators. PLife is in constant discussions with operators. Considerations include the demand for additional income-producing rooms, expected ROI and extent of inconvenience to residents.

Acquisitions provide upside above minimum rents
S$50m-100m in Japan; meaningful acquisitions in Malaysia and Australia. We expect more reasonable pricing in Japan, but meaningful acquisitions from Australia and Malaysia. Maintaining our acquisition assumption of S$200m, we anticipate DPU uplift of 3-5%, depending on funding details. PLife’s next acquisitions will depend on the pace of negotiations and market conditions. Management thinks that global uncertainties are a double-edged sword, introducing greater volatility to the markets but also throwing up opportunities and room for pricing negotiations with vendors. In Japan, PLife has been talking to existing operators and exploring new opportunities for acquisitions. Management is aware of concentration risks and any acquisitions in Japan will be in the range of S$50m-100m. We believe PLife will likely expand its portfolio of Japanese nursing homes.

In Malaysia, PLife has a clear pipeline of assets from sponsor Khazanah, including Pantai, International Medical University (IMU), and Malaysia Gleneagles. The timeframe for injections is less certain. Considerations are: 1) partnerships with prominent operators with strong operational track records and good credit standing; and 2) assets in Tier-1 or Tier-2 locations with good connectivity and access to catchment areas.

In Australia, 10 or more assets have been rejected thus far. PLife is dealing with multiparty vendors and counteroffers have been made in a bid to close the gap in pricing expectations.

Long leases and stable rents expected. Regardless of the eventual acquisitions, PLife will seek to maintain a portfolio of long-dated leases, with preference for master leases to reduce volatility and risks, and assets with full occupancy. Any acquisitions should also add to yields on a fully local debt-funded basis.

Acquisitions likely fully debt-funded; contingent on size and opportunity costs. With debt headroom of S$261m to PLife’s internal gearing target of 45%, we expect acquisitions to be fully debt-funded unless the acquisitions exceed the debt headroom, also providing additional tax shelters. Should acquisitions exceed debt headroom and in more than one core market, we anticipate equity financing in Australia and/or Malaysia. Management indicates that the funding mix will depend on asset size, pointin- time funding gap and opportunity costs given its intention to develop in its core overseas markets of Australia, Japan and Malaysia.

Mixed debt funding; minimum 50% natural hedge. While interest rates are likely to remain suppressed in Singapore, we expect management to employ a mix of local and Singapore debt funding for acquisitions in Australia and/or Malaysia, increasing returns to unitholders. This is subject to a minimum 50% natural hedge (i.e. at least 50% local debt).

Valuation and recommendation
Ideal combination of rent guarantees and inflation upside; maintain Outperform. We believe PLife has two qualities that are ideal in current times: 1) DPU resilience; and 2) inflation linkage. The former provides predictable yields should markets crash while the latter could lift DPUs, if more dollar printing keeps inflation high. The icing on the cake is acquisitions. Management’s caution towards acquisitions leaves us confident that any acquisition will be accretive. Such qualities have enabled PLife to outperform convincingly in edgy August (PLife +0.5% vs. FFSTI -11.4%). Although valuations at 1.3x P/BV reflect its positives, we believe that its premium valuation will not unwind in this climate, given the comfort of defensive and resilient yields. We maintain our DPU estimates and target price of S$2.05 (discount rate 7.4%), anticipating catalysts from accretive substantially debt-funded acquisitions.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CIMB Research
Publish date: 01/09/11

Billionaire Li’s Singapore venture may expand outside downtown

Billionaire Li Ka-shing’s property joint venture in Singapore, the city’s biggest downtown office developer over the past five years, may seek new sites outside the central business district for new projects.

Raffles Quay Asset Management Pte is owned by the Hong Kong tycoon’s Cheung Kong Holdings, Hongkong Land Holdings and Singapore’s Keppel Land. It developed One Raffles Quay and is opening Marina Bay Financial Centre in phases, where tenants include Standard Chartered Plc and Macquarie Group.

“We have been in the central business district, this is a place we know well,” Wilson Kwong, chief executive officer of Raffles Quay Asset, said in a briefing in Singapore today. “But nothing precludes us from looking at any other sites.”

Developers in Singapore are building more office space in the suburbs as companies including Credit Suisse Group AG shift some operations away from downtown to cut costs, according to Cushman & Wakefield Inc. The supply of suburban office space is expected to rise to 920,000 square feet (85,471 square meters) in 2014, five times the 190,000 square feet that’s expected to be completed this year, the property brokerage said last month. Rents in the central business district are 2.3 times those in the outskirts, according to government data.

Raffles Quay Asset would have spent between $4 billion and $5 billion on Marina Bay Financial when it’s completed in 2013, Kwong said. The first two towers were opened last year, while a third will be ready this month, where DBS Group Holdings, Southeast Asia’s biggest bank, will occupy almost half of the 1.3 million square feet of space, he said. The final part of the construction will include the Marina Bay Suites, a 221-unit residential complex, he said.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.theedgesingapore.com
Publish date:03/09/11

Greece, EU/IMF pause talks over deficit

Greece, EU/IMF pause talks over deficit
11:04 PM Sep 02, 2011
ATHENS - Talks between Greece and international inspectors on whether it has met conditions for a new aid tranche have been put on hold, officials said on Friday, after disagreements over why and by how much its deficit cuts programme has fallen behind schedule.

The pause in discussions -- a clear sign of tension between the debt-choked nation and its European Union (EU), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Central Bank troika of lenders -- had not been planned.

The IMF had initially said it wanted to wrap things up by Sept 5.

Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said the talks had not been suspended and would resume on Sept 14, after technical experts had had a chance to study relevant data.

Structural reforms needed to be accelerated as Greece's economy would contract by about 5 per cent this year and likely stay in recession in 2012 too, affecting its ability to hit its fiscal targets, Mr Venizelos said.

The government and its international lenders said on Thursday that Greece would miss this year's budget deficit target, but they disagreed on how big the slippage would be and what was to blame.

Shares in Greek banks fell as much as 7.3 per cent on Friday after news of the deficit miss and the pause in talks, underperforming modest declines on European markets.

The EU/IMF inspectors visiting Athens feel Greece is not pursuing reforms vigorously enough -- and have in particular criticised the lack of progress on privatisations and on labour and pension reforms -- while Greek officials cite the worse-than-expected recession as the main culprit.

Mr Venizelos said Greece was not currently considering introducing extra austerity measures.

"The first cycle of negotiations is completed. (The inspectors) will return in 10 days to see the budget plan for 2012 and conclude the procedure," a Greek official told Reuters.

Both the European Commission and the IMF have Athens-based staff who can continue talks at a technical level after mission chiefs have left. REUTERS


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: TODAYonline
Publish date:03/09/11

White House sharply cuts US growth forecast

White House sharply cuts US growth forecast
06:09 PM Sep 02, 2011
WASHINGTON - President Barack Obama sharply cut estimates on Thursday for US economic growth, underscoring the difficult challenge he faces in spurring a stronger recovery and creating more jobs.

In a mid-year review of his annual budget, Mr Obama predicted average unemployment of 9 per cent in 2012, when he will have to fight for re-election. The president will give a major speech on Sept 8 on how he plans to lift hiring and growth.

In the mid-year review, the White House offered some hints that the speech could include proposals for a mixture of tax cuts aimed at middle-class families, infrastructure spending and aid for the long-term unemployed.

Economic growth was marked down compared with what the White House had forecast in February, with conditions deteriorating even further after the administration locked down its predictions in June for the mid-session review.

As a result, it offered an alternative economic forecast based on what has happened in recent weeks. That projects GDP growth this year of 1.7 per cent, compared with 2.7 per cent expected back in February, with 2.6 per cent forecast for 2012, down from a 3.6 per cent prediction in February.

But the more subdued growth outlook did not have a major impact on the expected deficits, and growth was expected to rebound to above 4 per cent by 2015.

For the budget outlook, the White House said the deficit would now decline to 6.1 per cent of GDP in 2012 from a projected 8.8 per cent this year.

But critics were sceptical and said the long-term projections were unduly rosy.

"The President has the deficit falling from US$1.3 trillion (S$1.56 trillion) this year to US$473 billion in 2014. Should we really believe that? That seems a very optimistic assumption," said Mr Chris Edwards at the Cato Institute in Washington.

The improvement over February's forecast was due largely to spending cuts imposed under a deal struck last month by Mr Obama and Republicans to raise the US debt ceiling, which will shave US$1.45 trillion from the deficit over the next 10 years.

The White House review predicted unemployment to average 9.1 per cent this year and 9 per cent in 2012. The jobless rate was 9.1 per cent last month and is expected to show no change when the August employment report is released on Friday. REUTERS


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: TODAYonline
Publish date:03/09/11

Singapore inflation to stay above 5% for a few months, MAS says

Singapore’s inflation rate will remain higher than 5% in the next few months even as “subdued” global growth may increase risks to the economy, the central bank said.

“Inflationary pressures remain strong,” the Monetary Authority of Singapore said in a report on its website dated Sept. 1. “Economic activity in Singapore is likely to grow modestly in the second half of the year,” supported by Asian demand even as weaker growth prospects in the U.S. and Europe heighten “downside risks,” it said.

Asian policy makers are juggling the need to contain inflation with protecting their economies from a faltering U.S. recovery and the European debt crisis. Singapore has cut its 2011 forecast for export growth as gross domestic product fell an annualized 6.5% in the second quarter from the previous three months, while the central bank raised this year’s inflation estimate to as much as 5%.

“The tight labor market could result in stronger wage growth and a greater degree of pass-through to services costs,” the central bank said in its quarterly update on recent developments in the economy. “Inflation is expected to remain elevated at slightly over 5% in the next few months, on account of continued strong increases in accommodation costs, before slowly trending down towards the end of the year.”

CAR PRICES
Car prices will also contribute to inflation the rest of the year, the authority said. Core inflation, which excludes accommodation and private road transport costs, may be 2% to 3% this year, it said.

The Singapore dollar has reached unprecedented levels since the central bank said in April it would re-center the currency’s trading band higher and allow further appreciation to tame price gains, the third policy tightening in a year. The island uses the exchange rate as its main tool to manage inflation.

“MAS’ latest move took into account the impact of the pre- emptive tightening moves in April and October 2010, which would continue to have a restraining effect on economic activity and prices over the rest of this year,” the central bank said.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.theedgesingapore.com
Publish date:02/09/11

Friday, September 2, 2011

Suntec REIT: : Raise Suntec Singapore Stake, Potential for More DPU (Citi)

Suntec REIT (SUNT.SI)
Buy/Low Risk 1L
Price (12 Aug 11) S$1.38
Target price S$1.70
Expected share price return 23.2%
Expected dividend yield 7.0%
Expected total return 30.2%

Alert: Raise Suntec Singapore Stake, Potential for More DPU Enhancement
 Raise Suntec Singapore stake to 60.8% (from 20%). Suntec REIT announced it will acquire 51% stake in Harmony Partners Investments Limited (HPIL). HPIL currently holds 80% interest in Suntec Singapore International Convention & Exhibition Centre (Suntec Singapore). The acquisition will effectively raise Suntec REIT’s stake in Suntec Singapore from the current 20% to 60.8%. The purchase consideration of the acquisition is S$114.75m and it would be funded by bank borrowing.

 Synergistic to Suntec REIT’s portfolio and potential for asset enhancement. The acquisition would give Suntec REIT majority control of Suntec Singapore, which is an integral part of Suntec City. Suntec Singapore drew more than 6.8 million visitors to more than 1,500 events in 2010. It is synergistic to the REIT’s existing portfolio in Suntec City and offers further opportunities to unlock the underlying value of the assets. With the asset enhancement potential of the asset, it would make Suntec City even more attractive in the longer term.

 Gearing to rise to 41.6%. To be funded by bank borrowing, Suntec REIT’s gearing ratio is expected to increase marginally from 38.5% to 39.7% after the completion of the Proposed Acquisition. Suntec REIT’s aggregate leverage (as defined in the Property Funds Appendix) will be approximately 41.6% after the completion of the proposed acquisition.

 DPU impact 1.2%. On a proforma, Suntec REIT‘s NAV would have been S$1.87 compared to S$1.804 before acquisition and its FY10 DPU would rise 1.2% to 9.979cents from 9.859cents. We believe further DPU enhancement can be achieved with asset enhancement initiatives. Maintain Buy.

Valuation
Our target price of S$1.70 is derived from DDM. Inclusive of its 12-month forward DPU of 9.7 cents, the stock should be worth at least S$1.80 per share. We chose DDM as our valuation method as it is the most commonly used metric for valuing real estate investment trusts. We made the following assumptions in deriving our target price: 1) a risk-free rate of 3.4%; 2) an equity risk premium of 5%; 3) beta of 0.5; 4) a terminal growth rate of 0%.

Risks
We rate Suntec REIT shares Low Risk in accordance with our quantitative risk-rating system, which tracks 260-day historical share-price volatility. We believe the following are key risks that could cause the shares to deviate from our target price. Downside risks: 1) A sharp decline in economic activity could weaken retail space demand, cutting occupancy and rental rates and thus DPU and valuations; and 2) A sharp rise in interest rates could increase the cost of debt, lowering its DPU while increasing cost of capital and lowering its DDM valuation; 3) A conflict of interest could arise as Suntec REIT is managed by ARA Trust Management, which also manages Fortune REIT, a Hong Kong-focused retail-property REIT listed on the Singapore Exchange; and 4) A large proportion of its properties are located in the same development making it susceptible to a downturn in the micro-property market. Other REITs have more diversified property portfolios.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Citi Investment Research
Publish date: 22/08/11

Suntec REIT: Suntec REIT acquires majority stake in convention centre JV partner (Nomura)

Suntec REIT
BUY
Price target: 1.89 SGD
Price (12 Aug 2011): 1.38 SGD

COMPANY QUICK COMMENT
On 12 August, after the market closed, SUN announced the acquisition of a 51% stake in its JV partner that owns the Suntec Convention Centre, bringing its effective stake in the convention centre from the original 20% to 60.8%. The latest valuation of S$400mn for the convention centre, compared to S$288mn at end-2010, appears to have taken into account asset enhancement potential. Therefore we see this acquisition as having more strategic significance and expect subsequent related announcements to be made in coming months. Maintain Buy.

Step 1: Gain control over JV partner
Suntec REIT acquires majority stake in convention centre JV partner
On 12 August, after the market closed, Suntec REIT announced the acquisition of a 51% stake in Harmony Partners Investments (unlisted), which owns 80% of Suntec Singapore International Convention and Exhibition Centre (Suntec Convention Centre), for S$114.75mn. The acquisition is scheduled to be completed on 18 August, following which Suntec REIT will own an effective 60.8% (from 20% previously) of the Suntec Convention Centre.

The purchase consideration is based on the latest valuation of S$400mn for the convention centre as of 1 August 2011. Suntec Convention Centre is one of the largest convention and exhibition facilities in Singapore with about 1mn sq ft in NLA.

Premium takes into account enhancement potential? This is likely to be just Step I
We believe the market’s immediate reaction to this news is likely to be neutral to slightly positive.

Compared to the valuation of S$288mn as of end-December 2010 (based on Suntec REIT’s original 20% pro-rata share valued at S$57.6mn) and S$235mn in August 2009, when Suntec REIT announced the acquisition of the original 20% stake, the latest valuation of S$400mn for the Suntec Convention Centre appears to have taken into account some potential for asset enhancement, in our view. Indeed, in management’s statement for the rationale of the acquisition, it was noted that “(the acquisition provides) opportunities to integrate and enlarge Suntec REIT’s existing interest in the entire Suntec City development and to unlock the underlying value of the assets.”

The original 20% equity stake in the convention centre contributed just S$0.4mn in income to Suntec REIT’s 2Q11 earnings. Therefore we believe this acquisition of a majority stake in its JV partner in the convention centre is of more strategic significance and we think there are likely to be subsequent related announcements from the manager in the coming months.

At face value, acquisition is marginally accretive
At this stage, at face value, without taking into account any potential for asset enhancement, we estimate the acquisition of the additional effective 40.8% stake in the Suntec Convention Centre to add a marginal 0.1Sct to Suntec REIT’s distribution each year, compared to our FY11F and FY12F DPU forecasts of 9.3Scts and 9.5Scts, respectively.

We had valued Suntec REIT’s original 20% pro-rata share of the convention centre at S$33.6mn at gross asset level in our NAV calculation. If we were to peg our estimate to the latest valuation of S$400mn for the convention centre, our NAV estimate of S$1.89/share would be raised marginally by 1.9Scts/share, or about 1%.

Acquisition takes leverage to 41.6% with potential need for more funds to enhance asset
The acquisition, which will be fully funded by debt, would, we estimate, raise Suntec REIT’s aggregate leverage from 40.5% as of end-2Q11 to about 41.6%. Depending on whether there is a subsequent plan to enhance the asset and the scale of such an initiative, we see the potential for leverage to increase further. With macro uncertainties resurfacing, we believe the manager should raise fresh equity to deleverage if the opportunity arises.

Stock trades at 27% discount to NAV
The stock currently trades at an FY12F yield of 6.9% and 27% discount to our NAV estimate of S$1.89/share.




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Nomura equity research
Publish date: 15/08/11

Suntec REIT: Acquisition of a further 40.8% stake in Suntec Convention (CS)

Suntec REIT
Maintain UNDERPERFORM
Acquisition of a further 40.8% stake in Suntec Convention: Prelude to more AEIs at Suntec Mall?

● Suntec acquires a further 40.8% stake in Suntec Convention Centre for S$114.75 mn, lifting its stake to 60.8%. The acquisition price implies a 30% discount to market value.

● We estimate that the acquisition price implies ~6% NPI yield. According to management, the acquisition is marginally accretive, adding 1% to pro-forma DPU. More importantly, we believe that this move serves as a prelude to more AEIs at Suntec Mall, to address its falling rents (rents have fallen for five straight quarters).

● The acquisition is 100% debt financed, raising gearing to 39.7% (41.6% aggregate leverage) vs. management’s 40–45% target. With S$28 mn cash balance as at 2Q11, we believe if Suntec does undertake AEIs at the mall, there could be a need for a cash call, which may cause a near-term share price overhang.

● We therefore cut our target price from S$1.50 to S$1.40 to reflect higher cost of equity assumptions, and the risk of a placement in the near term. We maintain UNDERPERFORM, as we believe the yield prices in potential headwinds from: (1) continuing retail disappointment, (2) office vacancy risks and (3) placement.

Suntec lifts stake in convention centre from 20% to 60.8%
Suntec has announced the acquisition of a further 40.8% in Suntec Convention Centre for S$114.75 mn, which implies a 30% discount to the open market valuation of the entire stake at S$400 mn, bringing its total stake in the convention centre to 60.8%.

Marginally accretive; Prelude to more AEIs at Suntec Mall?
Based on our preliminary estimates, the acquisition price implies a ~6% NPI yield. According to management, the acquisition is marginally accretive, adding 1% to pro-forma DPU. Hence, we have not changed our DPU forecast at this stage. More importantly, we believe that this acquisition could serve a prelude to more AEIs at Suntec Mall. Recall that 2Q11 marked the fifth consecutive quarter of falling rents at Suntec Mall and at the same time, retail occupancy at the mall fell 0.8 p.p. QoQ to 97.1%. We believe that management could be looking to improve things at the mall soon.

Fully debt financed, post acquisition gearing rises to 39.7%
– Placement around the corner?
The acquisition will be financed 100% with debt, increasing the post acquisition gearing from 38.5% to 39.7%, with aggregate leverage at 41.6%, compared with management’s comfortable target of 40–45%, although we believe that in light of the global uncertainties surrounding debt, gearing levels above the 40% level may not be perceived favourably by the market. With a S$28 mn cash balance as at 2Q11, we believe that if management does decide to undertake an asset enhancement at its Suntec Mall, there could be a need for a cash call. Based on past experiences, share prices tend to underperform on the back of a placement exercise.

Maintain UNDERPERFORM – potential placement could cause near-term share price overhang
We therefore lower our target price from S$1.50 to S$1.40, after raising our cost of equity assumptions from 7.5% to 8% to reflect the higher leverage and the risk of a potential placement exercise in the near term, which we believe could cause a near-term share price overhang. Maintain UNDERPERFORM on Suntec REIT, as we believe that Suntec’s attractive yield of 6.5% prices in potential headwinds from: (1) continuing disappointment in retail, (2) potential vacancy risk at its older offices and (3) potential cash call risk.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Credit Suisse
Publish date:11/08/11

Suntec REIT: Major catalyst in place (RBS)

Suntec REIT
Buy
Target price S$1.70 (from S$1.75)
Price S$1.34
Major catalyst in place
We believe Suntec REIT's acquisition of a stake in SSICEC will open up opportunities for the trust to revamp its underperforming Suntec City Mall. We continue to like Suntec REIT's office portfolio, which could be expanded with the acquisition of MBFC Phase 2 next year. Maintain Buy.

Acquisition of SSICEC should create new growth opportunities
We believe Suntec REIT’s acquisition of a majority stake in Suntec Singapore International Convention & Exhibition Centre (SSICEC) creates an opportunity for Suntec REIT to undertake an asset enhancement initiative (AEI) that would convert/incorporate part of the SSICEC into the existing Suntec City Mall (SCM), increasing the amount of prime retail space in the development. SCM has been facing declining rents and occupancy, and we believe that a major asset enhancement project would unlock its value. If this happens, we would see it as a major catalyst for the stock.

Suntec REIT’s office portfolio – best in class
We adopt a more moderate outlook for the office segment and lower our office rental growth assumptions to 5% in FY12-13 from 10% pa. However, we remain positive on Suntec REIT’s quality office assets. Suntec REIT has 2.3m sq ft of Grade A office, the highest in the S-REIT sector, of which 1m sq ft is in the Marina Bay new Grade A office precinct.

Suntec REIT may acquire MBFC Phase 2 in 2012
The management has stated that it is currently looking at acquisition targets to grow the portfolio. We believe that Suntec REIT is likely to acquire a one-third stake in Marina Bay Financial Centre Phase 2 in 2012, given that it acquired MBFC Phase 1 post its completion in 4Q10. If this happens, it will further expand Suntec REIT’s new Grade A portfolio and should elevate its overall portfolio quality. We estimate that such an acquisition would cost about S$1.1bn and Suntec REIT would have to raise new equity given that its gearing is already at 40.6%.

Reiterate Buy; TP lowered to S$1.70
We maintain our Buy rating but lower our DCF-derived target price to S$1.70 (from S$1.75) as a result of lower growth forecasts in office rentals. Suntec REIT is one of our top picks for the sector as we believe the potential AEI of SCM is a major catalyst for the stock. The stock has dividend yields of 6.8% for both FY11 and FY12 vs the Bloomberg consensus commercial REIT average of 6.1 and 6.6%, respectively, for the same periods.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: RBS
Publish date:22/08/11

FCT: Quality suburban portfolio (RBS)

Frasers Centrepoint Trust
Buy
Target price S$1.78
Price S$1.42
Quality suburban portfolio

We view FCT's Bedok Point acquisition as attractive and the likely equity fund raising would improve the stock's liquidity. We are positive on the outlook of FCT's superior suburban malls and believe the trust can grow further by tapping its sponsor's acquisition pipeline. We reiterate our Buy rating.
.
Bedok Point acquisition looks attractive
FCT announced the acquisition of the Bedok Point mall in July and although this was widely expected, we still believe the acquisition is a major plus for FCT. The S$129.1m acquisition price implies an estimated net property income yield of about 6%, which we find attractive. We expect FCT to finance part of the acquisition through equity, and would view such a financing as positive for FCT as it could potentially improve the stock’s liquidity.

FCT’s superior malls to continue to outperform the market
We estimate that suburban mall supply will increase on average 4.9% per year over the next three years, while the average population grew 3.5% annually in the past five years. This may put some pressure on rents. However, we believe the higher supply is more likely to affect older shops at HDB flats and smaller, independently run malls. We expect rents for FCT’s superior portfolio of properties (with their quality tenants and excellent locations) will remain resilient; thus, we maintain our 2-3% rental growth forecast in FY11-13.

More acquisition targets from the sponsor’s pipeline
Apart from Bedok Point, FCT says it has several other acquisition targets from its sponsor’s (Frasers & Neave, F&N) pipeline. Changi City Point is expected to be completed in 2H11 and may be ripe for acquisition in the next two years when the business park and hotel components open. We estimate the asset is valued at S$300m-360m. Also, F&N is codeveloping a site in Punggol and may divest the retail component to FCT upon the project’s completion in 2015. We see good opportunities in both malls given the growth potential in their respective precincts, and we think the acquisitions should further boost FCT's liquidity.

Maintain Buy, TP S$1.78
We maintain our Buy rating on FCT with a target price of S$1.78. FCT’s superior suburban mall portfolio should provide a resilient income stream. We would view an announcement of FCT’s equity fund raising as a short-term catalyst for the stock. FCT has dividend yields of 5.9% in FY11F and 6.5% in FY12F, vs the commercial REIT average of 6.1% and 6.6%.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: RBS
Publish date:22/08/11

CDLHT: Riding on the tourism boom (RBS)

CDL Hospitality Trusts
Buy
Target price S$2.50
Price S$1.69
Riding on the tourism boom

We expect CDREIT to continue to benefit from the Singapore tourism boom given its 82% exposure to the sector. In our view, the trust's S$460m acquisition headroom is ample and its new acquisition plans could be a short-term catalyst for the stock. Reiterate Buy.

Riding on the tourism boom
Despite the growing economic woes in the West, we are still positive on the Singapore tourism sector. Driven by strong demand from Asian tourists (66% of total arrivals year to May 2011), we believe visitor arrivals are on track to reach the government’s projection of a record high of 12m-13m in 2011 (up 3-12% yoy). Average hotel occupancy so far in 2011 is 85%, higher than the 10-year average of 80%. Supply in the segment remains tight and we believe this presents upside potential for room rates. Hence, we maintain our RevPar growth forecasts of 25% in 2011 and 10% in both 2012 and 2013. We expect CDREIT to benefit from this tourism boom given its 82% exposure to the Singapore hotel segment.

Sufficient acquisition headroom for expansion
CDREIT is actively looking to acquire new hotels to expand its portfolio and we believe the trust has the resources to finance its expansion plans. Based on management’s target gearing of 40%, we estimate that CDREIT has ample acquisition headroom of about S$460m. In addition to Singapore hotels, it is also seeking opportunistic acquisitions around the region, including in Thailand and Indonesia, according to the management. Its recent acquisition of Studio M hotel in March 2011 was well received by the market and its stock outperformed the FSTREI by 2.9pp over a one-month period. CDREIT recently said it aims to complete at least one more acquisition by year-end and we view this plan as a potential positive catalyst for the stock in the short term.

A good proxy for the Singapore tourism sector; maintain Buy
We reiterate our Buy rating on CDREIT and our target price of S$2.50 as we see the stock as a good proxy for the Singapore tourism boom. We forecast dividend yields of 7.6% in FY11 and 8.4% in FY12, which compare favourably with the SREITs Bloomberg consensus average of 6.7% in FY11 and 7.1% in FY12.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: RBS
Publish date:22/08/11

CMT: A premium retail play

CapitaMall Trust
A premium retail play
Buy
Target price S$2.19
Price S$1.73

We expect CMT's malls to remain in demand despite a supply overhang in the retail segment. CMT could expand its portfolio further by acquiring CMA's 50% stake in ION Orchard in 2012. CMT is one of our top picks in the S-REIT sector due to its income resilience and acquisitive growth potential.

Demand for CMT’s malls remains strong
We expect CMT’s malls to outperform the overall retail segment amid a supply overhang. The company’s malls are well managed and have consistently shown strong growth in shopper traffic (+3.6% yoy in 1H11) and tenant sales (+8% yoy in 1H11). CMT is also actively pursuing asset enhancement projects to raise the quality of its malls. We believe this strategy is reaping benefits as our channel checks showed that demand for retail space in CMT’s malls remains robust despite sluggish leasing activities in other malls.

Possible acquisition of ION Orchard in 2012
CMA owns 50% of ION Orchard, and, according to management, CMT may acquire this stake in 2012. We consider this a major potential catalyst for the stock. The mall had a stable yield of over 5% as of 1H11 and there is potential upside in rental income given that the first round of rent renewal is due in July 2012. We estimate that such an acquisition would cost S$1.3bn (based on current book value of ION Orchard) and CMT would have to raise equity to finance it, given that its current gearing of 38.2% is near its stated optimal level.

Jurong Gateway acquisition is positive for CMT, in our view
Despite concerns about potential oversupply, we are positive on CMT’s stake in the Jurong Gateway site. The government has classified Jurong as a leading regional hub and plans to build more homes (private and HDB) there. Also, we believe the proposed site would create real synergy for CMT, given that it already owns two malls in the area. This, we believe, would give CMT stronger pricing power. We expect the new mall to attract healthy shopper traffic at the expense of nearby malls such as Jurong Point and Clementi Mall.

Top pick in the sector
We reiterate our Buy rating on CMT with a target price of S$2.19. CMT is one of our top picks in the S-REIT sector as we believe that its malls will continue to outperform the overall retail segment. CMT yields a decent 5.7% for FY11F and 6.5% for FY12F vs the commercial REIT average of 6.1% and 6.6%.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: RBS
Publish date:22/08/11

CCT: Maintaining our Hold rating (RBS)

CapitaCommercial Trust
Hold
Target price S$1.33 (from S$1.50)
Price S$1.22
Maintaining our Hold rating

We maintain our Hold rating on CCT and lower our target price to S$1.33 to reflect lower rental growth forecasts from its office assets. We see few catalysts for the stock as it has limited opportunities to achieve acquisitive growth, in our view. We prefer Suntec REIT over CCT in the office REIT segment.

A more moderated outlook for office properties
We believe the significant leasing activity in the office rental market has passed and the market is moving towards equilibrium. Hence, in view of lower GDP growth forecasts in Singapore, we reduce our rental growth forecasts for CCT’s office properties to 5% pa for FY12 and FY13, from 10% previously. This lowers our distributable income forecasts by 0.6% in FY12 and 3.1% in FY13.

Lacking in acquisition targets, in our view
We estimate CCT has acquisition headroom of S$1.4bn (assuming a target gearing of 40%), one of the highest among the S-REITs under our coverage. However, we believe that in contrast to its peer, Suntec REIT, CCT has a lack of acquisition targets. CCT does not have any potential properties available for acquisition from its sponsor’s (CapitaLand) pipeline and we believe accretive third-party acquisitions are hard to come by given the current high capital values of office assets. Hence, we believe CCT has limited opportunities to further enhance its portfolio in the near term and we see limited near-term catalysts for the stock.

Potential overhang in the commercial REIT segment
To fund their acquisitions, we estimate that commercial REITs, including CMT and Suntec REIT, may raise about S$2.5bn in equity in 2012. This accounts for 22% of the total free float value of the commercial REIT segment. We believe that this competition for capital may put an overhang on CCT.

Maintaining a Hold
We maintain our Hold rating for CCT and lower our DCF-derived target price to S$1.33 (from S$1.50). The lower target price is due to our lower distributable income over FY12-13F. We see lower growth potential for CCT’s older office assets than we do for peer Suntec REIT’s higher-quality new Grade A office properties. In the office REIT segment, we prefer Suntec REIT (Buy, TP S$1.70) as we believe it has a superior office portfolio and higher acquisitive growth potential. We forecast CCT dividend yields of 5.8% and 5.9% in FY11 and FY12 respectively, versus Suntec REIT’s 6.8% for both years


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: RBS
Publish date:22/08/11

Cambridge: Stable portfolio (RBS)

Cambridge Indl Trust
Buy
Target price S$0.58
Price S$0.45
Stable portfolio

We remain positive on CREIT because we believe that its single-tenanted properties (90% of rental income) provide a stable and visible income stream. CREIT is looking to expand its portfolio through acquisitions or build-to-suit projects. We also like CREIT for its high dividend yields. Maintain Buy.

A stable portfolio
We remain positive on CREIT due to its stable portfolio. Single-tenanted properties account for 90% of rental income and this gives the trust a steady and visible income stream. Notably, CREIT maintains a high level of security deposits, equivalent to 13.5 months or 115% of its 2011 annualised rental income. This helps to ease concerns of CREIT’s income stream should the Singapore economy go into a deep recession (which we think is unlikely at the moment). Currently, CREIT’s arrears ratio is low, at 0.5% (versus 1.4% in 4Q08).

Eyes on acquisitions
CREIT is actively looking for more accretive acquisitions to expand its portfolio. We estimate that CREIT has about S$25m cash on hand (net of its announced commitments) and could potentially raise more by divesting itself of its non-core assets. CREIT is placing more emphasis on build-to-suit projects and we see this as a sound strategy given that such projects typically have higher yields (of about 1ppt) than buying completed properties. We believe that this will also improve CREIT’s portfolio quality in the medium term.

Active capital management
CREIT has completed the refinancing of an existing term loan facility that matures in February 2012. Notably, the new S$320m loan has an all-in cost of 4.4%, significantly lower than the current 5.9%. We expect CREIT to enjoy lower interest costs going forward. It has also increased its acquisition term loan facility to S$120m from S$50m at an attractive rate of about 3%, hence providing the trust with ample resource to finance its future acquisitions.

Maintain Buy, TP S$0.58
We maintain our Buy rating on CREIT with a target price of S$0.58. We like CREIT for its stable income stream and high dividend yields (9.7% and 10.5% for FY11F and FY12F, respectively) versus the industrial REIT averages of 7.5% and 7.8% over the same period. It is also trading at an attractive 27% discount to its NAV.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: RBS
Publish date:22/08/11

Ascendas REIT: A resilient trust (RBS)

Ascendas REIT
Buy
Target price S$2.42 (from S$2.41)
Price S$2.05
A resilient trust

Given its quality portfolio and market leadership position, we believe AREIT will outperform its smaller peers in the industrial space. AREIT also has debt headroom of S$1bn, enough to finance its next phase of growth. We reiterate our Buy rating on AREIT, one of our top picks in the S-REIT sector.

AREIT to benefit from its market leadership position
We remain positive on AREIT, although we have a more moderate outlook for the overall industrial segment. We lower our rental growth forecasts to 1-5%, from 5-10%, in view of a potential slowdown in the economy. AREIT, given its quality portfolio and market leadership position, is likely to benefit more than its smaller peers. We note that its average portfolio occupancy of 93% since its listing is higher than the industry’s average of about 90%.

Entering a new phase of growth
AREIT carried out a pre-emptive equity fund raising in March to finance its next leg of expansion. Since then, it has announced new acquisitions and development projects worth S$450m. We estimate that AREIT has about S$1bn in debt headroom based on an optimal gearing level of 40%. This gives the trust ample ammunition to embark upon further acquisitions and build-to-suit (BTS) projects without a need for equity fund raising, We like BTS projects as they are typically more value accretive than buying completed assets.

Rental gap between business parks and prime offices is widening
The rental gap between business parks and prime offices widened to S$5.49 per sq ft in 1Q11, vs S$4.24 in 1Q10. We believe that some companies will move their operations out of offices into business parks as they look to combat rising inflation. We see this as a positive for AREIT, as it is the largest owner of business park space in Singapore.

Maintain Buy, TP S$2.42
We maintain our Buy rating and list AREIT as one of our top picks in the S-REIT sector. We increase our TP to S$2.42 (from S$2.41) to account for contributions from new acquisitions, albeit largely offset by our lower rental growth forecasts. Thanks to its strong portfolio and stable income stream, AREIT has outperformed the FSTREI by 9ppt so far in August. AREIT has dividend yield of 6.6% for FY12F and 6.8% for FY13F vs the Bloomberg consensus industrial REIT averages of 7.5% and 7.8%, respectively, for companies under our coverage. It is also trading at a 16% premium to its NAV, lower than its historical average of 37%.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: RBS
Publish date:22/08/11

经局把脉:资金流荡冲击转型

经局把脉:资金流荡冲击转型
Created 09/02/2011 - 18:13

大马转型大计,高调推出逾两年,今年算是重要的开动年头,很不幸的是海外经济环境刚好处于不稳定时期,资金市场动荡,对经济形成一股巨大资金流,恐怕会冲击我国转型大计。

欧洲债务问题还没有解决,上个月初美国国会举债决议所出现的政治矛盾,美国信贷评级遭调降,接下来又传出欧洲法国评级也遭调降,这些外围冲击令全球资金市场动荡,我国当然不能幸免。

资金市场起落无常,原本不是问题。问题是在于我国转型大计本来就存有矛盾。

43%特权恐成先例

国内,大家还在揣摩最终的《新经济模式》政策方案,本栏上周已提及政治经济问题仍然缠绕不清,政府高官不得不主动表明,为要确保土著不受冷落,愿意放慢发展工程脚步。

最后,正要开步发展的大吉隆坡捷运工程,成为《新经济模式》的“政策模式”;当局决定将总达工程总值约43%的合约,划定交由土著承包商进行。

敦马模式推动增长

由于这是政府转型大计的第一个重大工程,也就是《新经济模式》先例,土著必须获分配43%工程合约,很容易会成为未来其他政府工程计划的准绳。

这先例一开,恐怕《新经济政策》不但无法通过转型消失,反而进一步扩大,从土著必须获得30%特权,扩大近半至接近45%,难保很快就成为50%。

土著特权一旦深入《新经济模式》政策规范,“转型”计划就剩下扩大国内生产总值,提高人均收入至高收入国水平等,直接扩大经济的政策。

这么一来,资金流动和应用就更为重要,以积极推动基建发展,让每年经济平均增长6%或以上。这和我国第4届首相敦马哈迪医生,于1980年代与1990年代,展开庞大基建发展,推
动高速率经济增长没有两样。

不过,少了“真正转型”模式,多了反其道而行的扩大“特权经济”,所需要的资金就会远比敦马时期多。

我国目前的经济规模已比敦马时期扩大不少,联邦政府目前的经常开支已经是1983年的逾10倍,1993年的逾5倍,资金不能少!

在经济转型计划下,从2010年至2020年的10年期间,所需要的投资总额高达4440亿美元或1兆3466亿令吉,也就是说每年平均需要高达1347亿令吉投资总额,其中60%或平均每年808亿来自私人界。

这种单纯为了数字好看的刺激经济增长策略,资金流动就成为焦点。

政府高官对于今年第一季流入的直接投资资金增加逾倍至111亿常津津乐道。

今年第2季,流入的直接外资再次比去年同时期增加逾57%至101亿,虽然增幅收窄,但是仍然保持增长,流入直接外资仍然上百亿。

外资达标共同分担

首二季合起来,今年上半年流入我国的直接外资达212亿,比去年上半年增加75%,这是不错的成绩。

如果下半年能保持,流入我国的直接外资就能越过400亿,国内私人界只需同样投资逾400亿,则我们就能达到政府预期的每年808亿资金来推动成长,朝向终极高收入国目标迈进。

如果单单流入我国的直接投资资金恢复增长,那肯定是好事,而且我们也可以预期下半年流入的直接外资同样增长,或甚至更高。

但是,情况并不如我们想像这么简单,在直接外资流入的同时,我们也面对国内直接资金持续大量流出海外,还有来意不善的海外组合资金也大量流入我国。

今年上半年,除了流入直接外资锐增75%外,从我国外流到海外的直接投资资金同样锐增逾80%,达到近180亿令吉,这意味今年上半年净流入我国的直接资金仅32亿4千万令吉,略
比去年同时期的21亿令吉高。

资流三高困挠经济

此外,最令人头痛的还是组合资金的变动,今年上半年流入我国的组合资金高达564亿令吉,比去年同时期锐增逾倍,而且其中85%或逾480亿令吉是于第2季流入。

庞大组合资金流入匿藏,令国内资金市场于第2季大起,但是也同时危机四伏。8月份外围不利消息令股市大跌,这些潜伏的组合资金不会如此撤离,未来国内外政经变化都会令资金市场更为动荡。

总的来说,尽管直接外资锐增,外流直接投资同样飙升,外来组合资金更是高不可测,这股庞大资金流是计时炸弹,恐怕会困挠经济,最终冲击我国“转型大计”。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 南洋商报
Publish date:02/09/11

全球展望不稳 9月份投资抗跌为妙

全球展望不稳 9月份投资抗跌为妙
Created 09/02/2011 - 19:04

(吉隆坡2日讯)马股今天一度劲飙36点迎接9月份,惟分析员认为在全球经济展望和欧洲债务危机情况不明确之际,投资者还是采取抗跌策略为妙。

配合开斋节和国庆节三天连休后,马股今天英勇迎市,金融和种植蓝筹受股友热捧下,大马富时隆综指早盘时数度飙涨超过30点,最高达36.52点,挂1483.79点。

可惜,马股买气不敌区域低靡情绪影响,涨幅不断收窄,至终场闭市时,以1474.09点,扬26.82点闭市。

纵然相对区域股市,马股今天表现可谓一枝独秀,但分析员仍不看好马股短期前景。

今天共有3家证券行,包括益资利资本、马银行投资银行及黄氏星展维克斯研究,就不约而同调低富时隆综指年底预测8.4%至12.1%不等,原因是企业次季业绩不理想。

尽管马股9月份首日的走势良好,但侨丰投资研究分析员并不建议投资者在此时采取“趁低吸购”策略。

“我们认为,富时隆综指今年内最高会达致1557点,最低则是1378点。2012年的合理价值则是1466点。”

他表示,全球市场在马股配合公共假期而休市期间取得合理的复苏,综指确实可能在短期内温和回弹。

“不过,由于全球经济展望仍然不明确,我们对于此时采取趁低吸购的策略,维持在比较谨慎的看法。”

大选或掀套利风

侨丰投资研究分析员补充,随着全国大选很可能提前在年底举行,国人重新选择由哪个政府来执政的情况,将会在大选之后推动股市走势。

“因此,市场随大选即将到来而出现大量套利情况时,或许是最佳的趁低吸购时机。”

他继续鼓吹抗跌策略,并建议高风险的投资者,选择已被抛售但有吸引力的中型股。

该行建议选择拥有更长期“从经济衰退复苏”商业模式的中型股,例如柔佛医药保健(KPJ,5878,主板贸服股)和速伯玛(Supermx,7106,主板工业产品股)。

原因是大幅滑落的中型股一旦复苏,将会趋向超越大市,因它们拥有高度复苏的能力。

企业盈利下调

益资利投资研究主管程宏扬指出,该行的企业业绩总结报告要到本月5日少出炉,但根据初期指标显示,大部份企业2011年次季的业绩表现低于预期。

有鉴于此,该行可能会下调2011年的盈利增长预测1%到2%至17.1%,2012年的预测为12.8%。

“这可能促使我们下修1557点的年底富时隆综指目标,但2012年目标仍因较高的本益比而维持在1466点。”

同样地,由于预计今年次季的企业业绩无法达致预期表现,市场有3个券商今日下修富时隆综指的年底目标。

其中,益资利投资研究将综指目标从之前料扬升至1650点预测,削减12%至1450点。

程宏扬说,继连续两个季度交出令人失望的表现之后,大马企业盈利的增长动力出现了一些裂缝。

该行认为,原油价和煤炭价升高,强烈依赖能源的股项如马航(MAS,3786,主板贸服股)、国家能源(Tenaga,5347,主板贸服股)和拉法基马洋灰(LafargeMC,3794,主
板工业产品股)会主导这波业绩下跌潮。



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 南洋商报
Publish date:02/09/11

企業盈利失動力‧綜指全年下看1378點

企業盈利失動力‧綜指全年下看1378點
Created 09/02/2011 - 19:04

(吉隆坡2日訊)益資利等證券研究機構下修富時綜合指數全年目標,因上一季企業盈利表現遜於預期。其中僑豐研究更估計年杪綜指目標1557點或難保,最低還可能走低到1378點。

益資利研究將綜指目標調低12%,預計年底時可能從1650點跌至1450點。馬銀行研究和黃氏唯高達研究也雙雙下修綜指預測。

企業獲利連兩季遜色

益資利分析員在報告中說,大馬企業獲利成長動力在連續兩季交出讓人失望的表現後,開始展現一絲絲的裂痕。

“受能源價格影響的股項如馬航(MAS, 3786, 主板貿服組)、國家能源(TENAGA, 5347, 主板貿服組)、拉法基馬洋灰(LMCEMNT, 3794, 主板工業產品組)等最讓人失望,因原油和煤炭價格走高。”

益資利研究表示,雖然面對外圍不明朗因素挑戰,馬股基本面仍相對完好,但盈利成長動力“故事”恐已走到盡頭,未來可能迎接更令人失望的財報季節。

“雖然2012年馬股淨利成長目標從去年12月的8.9%提高至12%,我們相信現在表現落後大市風險更大,主要是銀行和電力領域將貢獻2012年盈利成長的42%和25%。”

黃氏唯高達研究也表示,隨著企業淨利預測下調,下砍富時綜合指數年終目標至1520點(前期為1730點),但今年迄今馬股憑藉其防禦特色,表現領先區域同儕。

“區域股市在本週強勁反彈,但馬股卻休市3.5日,相信短期富時綜指可能從後趕上。”

馬銀行研究則估計,綜指年底將跌至1520點,原有預測為1660點。

標準普爾在8月5日調低美國國債評級後,馬股以至全球股市開始“跌跌”不休,至今滑落4.9%。



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 星洲日報
Publish date: 02/09/11

2011-0816-57金錢爆(谷歌騎摩托 新金豬四國)



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date:16/08/11

2011-0826-57金錢爆(聽巴爸的話)



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date:26/08/11

59% chance of S'pore facing recession: report

Business Times - 02 Sep 2011


59% chance of S'pore facing recession: report

By TEH SHI NING

(SINGAPORE) Various leading indicators now point to a 59 per cent chance of Singapore entering a recession, says a Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) report.

Stock prices, tech industrial production, the electronics leading index and the purchasing managers' index (PMI) new orders reading all point to a greater than 50 per cent likelihood of recession.

Key trade indicators like the non-oil domestic exports (NODX) and non-oil retained imports (NORI), and bond yield spreads, signal a less than 50 per cent probability of a recession.

BofAML economist Chua Hak Bin says the multi-variable approach's prediction is in line with his call for a second straight quarter of sequential contraction in Singapore's GDP this quarter.

Cautioning that the indicators are not uniformly accurate, Dr Chua says history shows NODX to be the most reliable, signalling four out of Singapore's last five recessions, failing to catch only the one triggered by the Sars epidemic. NODX now signals a 41 per cent possibility of a downturn, based on shrinking exports in July.

The NODX also raised a 'false alarm' just twice, compared to the Straits Times Index (STI), which caught all five recessions but predicted 11 over that period. The STI now points to a 55 per cent chance of recession.

Weakening external demand is expected to drive Singapore into a second sequential drawback in Q3, though 'whether this recession turns out to be shallow or deep will depend on how the global financial system weathers this downturn', he adds.

Not all agree with his prognosis of a Q3 technical recession. Credit Suisse, in a report released yesterday, continues to expect a 3 per cent quarter-on-quarter, annualised rebound in Singapore's GDP both this quarter and in Q4.

Having recently lowered their Singapore GDP forecasts for 2011 and 2012 to 5.5 per cent and 4.8 per cent respectively, Credit Suisse economists yesterday cut the 2012 growth forecast further to 4.5 per cent.

Also trimmed were growth forecasts for China, Hong Kong, India, Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines, for both this year and next, with weak US and European growth on the horizon and little prospect of aggressive interest rate cuts.

BofAML recently lowered its Asean growth forecasts too. Dr Chua believes that 'a recession, if it does materialise, will likely be of the milder rather than the more severe form'.

He noted in a report earlier this month, surveying past recessions, that Singapore tends to see a larger percentage-point fall in GDP growth than its Asean neighbours Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines.

Singapore's recessions tend to last 11.3 months, compared to Malaysia's 15 months and the Philippines' 12.8 months.

Excluding the Asian crisis, Indonesia and Thailand saw shorter downturns of about six months.

Past recessions also shaved an average of five percentage points off inflation's peak, usually during the middle or later part of each recession. But with the potential recession expected to be milder, it is also likely to be less deflationary, Dr Chua says.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:02/09/11

S-REIT: High yielding and resilient (RBS)

Real Estate Invt Trust
High yielding and resilient
S-REITs are trading at compelling yields vs Singapore government bonds and utility stocks, in our view. Low interest rates should help earnings, acquisitive growth and property values. We still see growth in rental values despite a potential economic slowdown. Top picks: CMT, AREIT, Suntec REIT. Overweight.




Attractive valuations
The current yield gap between S-REITs and the 10-year government bond is attractive to us at 5.1ppt vs 0.8ppt during the 2007 boom and an average of 3.4ppt over the past seven years. S-REITs’ yields of 6.7% and 7.1% over 2011-12 are also higher than the average yields of 5.5-6% of utility stocks listed on the SGX. We believe that S-REIT’s high yields are well supported by a stable rental outlook, low interest costs and acquisitive growth potential. Our top picks for the sector are CMT, AREIT and Suntec REIT. They have strong acquisition pipelines, and are the market leaders in their respective segments.

Low interest rates a positive for S-REITs
We believe the continuous low interest rate environment is a boon for S-REITs as it will provide support for investment property values and the trusts will have access to cheap funding to finance more accretive acquisitions. S-REITs will also enjoy low interest expense, which accounts for 25-35% of total costs, providing some relief from inflationary pressures.

We still see acquisitive growth
We like S-REITs with firm acquisition pipelines and sufficient debt headroom, such as AREIT. Most REITs under our coverage have visible acquisition pipelines. But we estimate SREITs will have to raise about S$2.5bn from the market to fund acquisitions next year, accounting for 22% of commercial REITs’ total freefloat value. This may put an overhang on the commercial REIT segment, with CCT most adversely affected, in our view.

We still expect rental growth
Despite a potential slowdown in Singapore’s economy, we still expect S-REITs to enjoy some rental growth in FY11 and FY12. Retail rents have proved to be resilient during downturns and, hence, we maintain our 2-3% pa growth forecasts, in line with inflation. We lower our growth forecasts for the office segment to 5% pa (from 10%) and for the industrial segment to 1-5% pa (from 5-10%), We remain positive on the hotel segment and maintain our RevPar growth forecasts of 25% in FY11 and 10% in FY12.


Low interest rates positive for S-REITs
With interest rates likely to be low over the next two years, we expect S-REITs to benefit from: 1) lower interest expense, 2) availability of cheap funding to finance acquisitions and 3) support for the capital values of existing portfolios.

Benefits of low interest rate environment threefold
The US Federal Reserve has kept the Fed Funds Target Rate (FFTR) at a low of 0.25%, since late 2008. This has resulted in a low lending rate in Singapore as it is directly linked to the FFTR. The three-year SOR, a benchmark for S-REITs’ lending rates, averaged at 1.3% between 2010 and now, significantly lower than the nine-year average of 2.2% (see Chart 1). Notably, the threeyear SOR breached its all-time low this month as demand for the Singapore dollar surged as investors sought safe-haven investments.

On 9 August 2011, in the wake of rising uncertainty in the US economy, the Fed pledged to maintain low interest rates until at least mid-2013. This is likely to contribute to a continuous low interest rate environment in Singapore, and bodes well for S-REITs on three fronts: 1) lower interest expense, to ease inflationary pressure, 2) availability of cheap debt to finance acquisition plans and 3) support for capital value of existing portfolios.

Low interest expense positive for earnings
Over the past year, S-REITs have benefited from lower interest costs as they have refinanced their existing debt obligations (see Table 2). This has contributed to higher distributable income as interest accounts for 25-35% of S-REITs’ total costs. Given the probable low-interest environment over the next two years, S-REITs are likely to continue to benefit from lower financing costs. This should help to offset inflationary pressures arising from higher manpower and utilities costs.

We note that most of the S-REITs under our coverage have already taken advantage of the lower interest environment over the past year to refinance their debts and we believe that average debt costs are unlikely to go down any further.

Low interest rates positive for acquisitions
S-REITs under coverage have strong balance sheets, with their gearing level typically below 40% (see Table 3). We estimate they have between S$133m and S$1.9bn of acquisition headroom, assuming a target gearing level of 40-45%, and that they can raise new debt at interest rates of 3-3.5% pa (assuming a three-year tenure). This compares well with the implied net property income yields of industrial (7%), retail (6%), office (3.5%) and hotel (4.5-6%) assets seen in recent transactions or on properties currently listed for sale.

Hence, we believe that S-REITs in the industrial and retail segments can continue to take advantage of the low interest rate environment to acquire accretively, while accretive third-party acquisitions in the office and hotel segments might be harder to come by.

Low rates support capital values of investment properties
Given the strength of the Singapore dollar and the high liquidity in the market, we believe that demand for Singapore investment properties will remain strong. This provides support for capital values in property assets amid uncertainty in the market. On 18 August, office properties 135 Cecil Street and Robinson Centre were put up for sale at S$2,200-2,300 psf, similar to levels seen before the correction early in the month. Hence, we believe that demand for investment properties should remain strong on the back of high liquidity.

We expect stable rental growth
Although the Singapore economy is expected to experience a slowdown, we believe that SREITs’ earnings are likely to remain stable. We expect rental growth for retail, office and industrial to at least track inflation, while hotel rates will benefit from the tourism boom

Hospitality segment – the tourists are still coming
The Singapore tourism sector has been the economy’s outperformer. Buoyed by the opening of the two integrated resorts (IRs), Singapore enjoyed a bumper 2010 as it welcomed a record 11.6m visitors (+20%). Accordingly, RevPar for the year rose 26.6% yoy, driven by higher occupancy and room rates.

More importantly, the growth momentum continued into 2011. Year to June 2011, visitor arrivals had reached 6.35m (+15% yoy) and were on track to eclipse 2010’s record. Correspondingly, RevPar also rose 15% yoy on the back of rising room rates and high and stable occupancy levels. The Singapore Tourism Board has estimated 12m-13m people will visit in 2011, a 3-12% yoy rise. At end-June, the run rates to 12m and 13m were 53% and 49% respectively.

Tourism sector growth supported by rising demand from the region
Despite growing uncertainty in the global economy, we believe visitor arrivals are likely to be at the higher end of the 2011 forecasts. The second half of the year is traditionally stronger and, more importantly, underlying demand remains highly robust, in our view. Singapore’s tourism sector is largely driven by Asian tourists. Year to May 2011, Asia-Pacific (ex Japan) accounted for 66% of total visitor arrivals (see Chart 4). Given the strength of the Asian economies vs US and Europe, we believe the growth in visitors from the region to continue to be supported. RBS economists expect the Asia (ex Japan) economy to grow about 8% pa in 2011 and 2012. Arrivals from most key markets registered robust double-digit growth year to May 2011

Benign supply conditions to support growth
The government expects visitor arrivals to grow at a five-year CAGR of 7.9% to reach 17m in 2015. We believe this is highly achievable. New attractions around the two IRs are expected to be opened in the near future, including Gardens by the Bay (June 2012) and Marine Life Park (2012). We believe these will ensure Singapore remains an attractive destination for tourists.

On the supply front, more than 6,500 hotel rooms (17% of 2010’s stock) are to be added by 2013. This translates to a 5.3% CAGR, lower than the estimated 7.9% CAGR in visitor arrivals. Hence, we believe the benign supply conditions will help to support the RevPar growth.

RevPar stood at S$220.1 in June 2011 (+12% yoy), just 1.2% shy of the all-time record achieved in September 2008. But, the current room rate of S$250 is 17% below September 2008’s record of S$301. With occupancy above 85%, we see further margin for growth in room rates. Hence, we maintain our forecasts of a 25% yoy rise in RevPar in 2011 and a 10% yoy rise in each of 2012- 13. CDREIT, with its 82% exposure to Singapore hotels, should benefit from the tourism boom.

Retail – focus on quality amidst supply overhang
As discussed in our Buying opportunity report, dated 16 August 2011, we believe the retail segment faces a supply overhang. We estimate that supply of suburban malls will increase 4.9% per year between 2011 and 2014 vs average population growth of 3.5% pa in the past five years. At Orchard Road, supply is expected to be more benign, increasing by 2.8% pa over the same period. However, newer malls in the area including 313@Somerset and Orchard Central, are still digesting the high influx of supply (+28% of stock) introduced in 2009-10.

Hence, given the supply overhang and increasing cost pressures faced by tenants, landlords’ ability to increase rents may be undermined. However, we believe that retail REITs under our coverage – CMT and FCT – will continue to register some rental growth over the next three years.

CMT and FCT quality malls to outperform
The two premium mall operators have built strong track records and established a quality tenant base. Thanks to the tourism boom and improved economy, popular malls such as Funan IT Mall, Tampines Mall, Bugis Junction and Northpoint, continue to register healthy growth in tenants’ sales and shopper traffic. Our channel checks also suggest that, despite sluggish leasing activity in the overall sector, there is a queue of tenants vying for space at CMT’s and FCT’s quality malls. Hence, we believe their malls will continue to outperform the sector.

We maintain our forecasts of a 2-3% rental growth in the sector, which tracks the nation’s inflation rate. We are positive on both CMT and FCT given their quality portfolio and the fact that retail properties are typically more resilient during an economic slowdown.

Office – a more moderate outlook
We lower our rental growth forecasts to 5% pa for FY12-13 from 10% previously. As highlighted in our Buying opportunity report, dated 16 August 2011, we believe that the significant leasing activity in the segment has past and the market is moving towards equilibrium. The high supply visibility alleviates the supply crunch previously expected and, hence, the rental growth momentum looks likely to slow down. In addition, the government’s downgrading of 2011 GDP forecasts to 5-6% from 5-7% suggests that demand may also be slowing down.

However, we believe that Singapore offices remain attractive. As financial institutions move from the West to the East in search of growth, Singapore and Hong Kong stand out as the most likely destinations. Grade A office rents in Singapore are still 25% below those in Hong Kong (see Chart ). Hence, we believe that Singapore offices can continue to attract new financial institutions to set up their operations here, albeit at a slower rate than in the past two years.

Industrial – cautiously optimistic despite some growth headwinds
The industrial segment was previously our top pick within the S-REIT sector as we were bullish on the manufacturing and export sectors in Singapore. Indeed, driven by strong growth in industrial production and improved trade conditions, industrial rents in 2Q11 rose 28% (see Chart ) from the trough in 3Q09 (vs office’s +17% and retail’s +2.3% over the same period).

Now, however, we believe that the industrial segment is most vulnerable to a potential slowdown in the global economy and, hence, we turn cautious on it. The Singapore Purchasing Manager (PMI) Index slipped below 50% (49.3%) in July for the first time since 3Q10 (see Chart 8). A PMI Index reading below 50% indicates a contraction in the manufacturing sector. Non-oil domestic exports (NODX), a indicator of external trade, dipped 2.8% yoy in July, only the second yoy decline in 21 months (see Chart ).

However, despite the potential headwinds in the global economy, we are cautiously optimistic on the industrial property segment. In July, NODX to China and emerging markets grew by 10% and 28% respectively, suggesting that Singapore can still achieve reasonable export growth outside of the Western economies. RBS believes that a drastic slowdown in the China economy is unlikely at moment and this should support Singapore’s trade growth.

In addition, the government is still targeting 5-6% GDP growth for 2011, while RBS forecasts 6% growth in 2011 and 5% in 2012. We estimate that 1% GDP growth will translate to net demand of 500,000 sq ft in factory space (including business parks) and 130,000 sq ft in warehouse space. Hence, we believe that demand for industrial property will remain firm over the next two years and this should provide support for rental growth.

Benign supply conditions
An estimated 30m sq ft of industrial space (7.4% of existing stock) is due to enter the market over the next three years (see Table 4). The projected 2.3% pa increase in supply is below the fiveyear historical average of 3-4% per year. Critically, about 70% of the new supply has been precommitted. Therefore, we believe that the supply conditions are healthy and rentals are unlikely to face downward pressure in the near term.

Lowering our rental growth forecasts for the industrial segment
In view of a potential slowdown in GDP growth, we lower our rental growth forecasts to 1-5% for FY12-13 from 5-10% currently. We remain slightly positive on the segment. Demand for industrial space remains healthy as some companies are seeking larger space to consolidate their operations. However, companies are unlikely to pursue aggressive expansion plans at the moment given the uncertainty, capping our rental growth assumptions.

AREIT remains our top pick in the industrial space because of its market leadership position. CBD Office rentals have risen by 18% over the past 18 months (vs business park’s +3%) and some companies have opted to move part of their operations into business parks to cut costs. The widening rental gap (see Chart ) between business park and prime office makes business parks an increasingly popular alternative to conventional offices in the CBD. We expect this trend to continue as companies combat rising inflation. This bodes well for AREIT, which is the market leader in the business park segment.

We still see acquisitive growth
We believe S-REITs with acquisitive growth will outperform their peers. We like S-REITs with firm acquisition pipelines and strong debt headroom given a potential EFR overhang in the office segment in 2012. Buy CMT, AREIT and Suntec.

S-REITs with acquisitive growth potential should outperform
Given our more moderate outlook on the office and industrial sectors and the uncertainty in the global economy, S-REITs could see lower organic growth 2012. Hence, we believe trusts with the potential to achieve acquisitive growth will set themselves apart and outperform the sector. As mentioned previously, the low interest rate environment has enabled S-REITs to secure debt funding easily and cheaply. However, at the same time, they face a different challenge on the acquisition front. As shown in Chart 11, current industrial property prices have reached a 10-year peak while office and retail property prices are just 1.3% and 1.6% shy of their peaks in 2008. In a market flushed with liquidity, asset prices have become more inflated and this makes accretive acquisitions harder to come by.

Therefore, we favour S-REITs that have a visible acquisition pipeline, ample acquisition headroom and/or strong sponsor support. We examine nine S-REITs (eight under our coverage and KREIT, which is sponsored by Keppel Land) and have also identified potential acquisition targets for these S-REITs between now and 2012. As shown in Table 5, the profile of AREIT stands out. It has a low gearing of 29% and a visible acquisition pipeline. We note that recent S-REIT acquisitions (CDREIT’s acquisition of Studio M and KREIT’s acquisition of MBFC Phase 1) that were funded by internal resources were well received by the market. Incidentally, both trusts outperformed the FSTREI by 2.9ppt over a one-month period after the announcements were made. Hence, we believe that AREIT’s ability to fund its acquisition using its balance sheet is a major plus point for the stock.

Apart from AREIT, CMT and Suntec REIT also have significant acquisitions in the pipeline, although both trusts would have to do an equity fund raising (EFR) to finance their acquisitions.




Potential equity fund raisings may create an overhang
Admittedly, most S-REITs we analyse have clear acquisition targets (see Table ) in the near term. For example, Suntec REIT and KREIT are each likely to acquire a one-third stake in Marina Bay Financial Centre (MBFC) Phase 2 from their respective sponsors Cheung Kong and Keppel Land when the office development is completed next year, just as they did with MBFC Phase 1 when it was completed in late in 2010. We believe that both Cheung Kong and Keppel Land are likely to divest their stakes in MBFC Phase 2 as they can recycle the divestment proceeds for other development projects. We also believe that MLT is likely to tap into the pipeline of its sponsor (Mapletree Investment) within the next 18 months as guided by management.

However, we note that these S-REITs have a relatively high gearing level (around 40%) and the approximate values of the potential acquisitions exceeds their debt headroom. Hence, as we believe it is unlikely that they will sell existing assets, these S-REITs will likely have to launch equity fund raising (EFR) exercises to finance these potential acquisitions.

Most notably, with reference to our report Buying opportunity, dated 16 August 2011, we believe that Keppel Land may look to divest its stakes in MBFC Phase 2 and Ocean Financial Centre (OFC) to KREIT. Assuming a capital value of S$2,500psf for both properties, the overall quantum of the acquisitions would amount to more than S$2.9bn. To finance this, KREIT may have to raise about S$1.1bn from the market. Similarly, we believe MLT and Suntec REIT are also likely to tap the equity market to fund their acquisitive growth.

Recent IPOs increased competition for funds in the S-REIT sector
Over the past year, there were six major IPOs in the properties and/or structured trust sectors, raising more than S$14bn from the market (see Table ). This naturally increased competition for funds within the S-REIT sector.

Until the recent correction, AREIT had underperformed the FSTREI by an average of about 2.3ppt (see Chart 12) since October 2010 when Global Logistics Properties and MINT (both in the logistics property segment) listed. Similarly, the FSTREI underperformed the STI by an average of about 1.7ppt over a three-month period during which Hutchison Port Holdings Trust and MCT were listed (see Chart ).

While we cannot fully attribute the underperformance to the IPOs, it is reasonable to believe that the new listings (which heighten competition for capital) played a part in the relative underperformance of AREIT and the S-REIT sector.

We expect competition for capital to intensify in 2012. We estimate that about S$2.5bn will be raised from the market as S-REITs look to finance their acquisitions. KREIT’s potential acquisitions of OFC and MBFC, if they come about, will be the most capital intensive (see Table ), on our estimates. Notably, EFRs from commercial REITs account for more than 90% of the funds to be raised from the market, accounting for 22% of commercial REITs’ total freefloat value. We believe this will put an overhang on commercial REITs such as CCT.

In contrast, the total amount raised from October 2010 to June 2011 represented 54% of S-REIT’s total freefloat. Hence, we expect the impact to be lower this time around.

Attractive valuations
S-REITs are trading at what we see as attractive yields of 6.7% for FY11F and 7.1% for FY12F. The yield gap between S-REITs and 10-year bond yields has widened to 5.1%. SREITs are trading at higher discounts/lower premiums to NAV than the historical average.




Yield gap widening
Amid the uncertainty in the world’s economy, global investors have been buying up Singapore Government Securities (SGS), which they see as a safe haven given Singapore’s AAA credit rating and strong currency. As a result, yields on SGSs have reached new lows. The yield on the 10-year bond (the benchmark for risk-free rate) dipped to 1.62% on 10 August 2011, lower than the previous trough of 1.72% seen during the financial crisis in January 2009. (See Chart ).

On the other hand, S-REITs are trading at attractive dividend yields of 6.7% and 7.1% in FY11F and FY12F respectively, on both Bloomberg consensus and our estimates. As depicted in Chart 15, the yield gap between S-REITs and the 10-year bond yield has reached 5.1ppt, the highest since January 2010. This is also higher than the seven-year average of 3.4ppt. While the widening yield gap is testament to the growing uncertainty on the global economy, S-REITs continue to be an attractive investment proposition, in our view.

As the Singapore dollar remains strong, we believe there will be fund inflows from overseas. Apart from physical property (which we are positive on), we believe investors may look at high-yielding stocks as an attractive investments. S-REITs’ dividend yields are 1.1-1.2ppt higher than the dividend yields of utility stocks in Singapore (see table ) and we see this as another positive for the sector.

Attractive valuation vs historical average
We remain overweight on the sector as we see: 1) a benign rental outlook, 2) a continuing low interest rate environment, and 3) acquisition growth opportunities. Since the start of August, the FSTREI index has fallen by 9% (vs STI index’s decline of 15%) due to the economic woes in Europe and the US. This suggests that S-REITs are relatively more resilience during market volatility. We believe that this presents a good buying opportunity as S-REITs are now trading at a higher discount (or lower premium) to their NAV vs their historical average.

Top picks – CMT, Suntec REIT and AREIT
CMT, Suntec REIT and AREIT are our top picks for the sector. CMT is currently trading at a 12% premium to NAV, lower than its historical average of 33%. According to the management, it may look to acquire ION Orchard in 2012. We see this as a catalyst for the stock given the quality of the mall and the tourism boom in Singapore.

We also like AREIT for its strong acquisition headroom and market leadership position in the industrial property segment. It looks undervalued, trading at 16% premium to NAV (vs historical average of 37%). We note that AREIT outperformed the S-REIT sector by 9ppt during the recent correction, suggesting its relative resilience in times of market volatility.

We also like Suntec REIT as we see potential short-term catalysts in the stock. Suntec REIT’s acquisition of a majority stake in Suntec Convention Centre, which is next to the underperforming Suntec City Mall, suggests to us that management is looking to embark on a substantial asset enhancement project to improve the mall (see An undervalued commercial play, dated 12 May 2011).

We have Buy ratings on CDREIT, FCT and CREIT
We continue to like CDREIT as we expect RevPar to continue to grow on the back of strong tourist arrivals. It also has healthy debt headroom of S$400m for future acquisitions. The stock is currently trading at a 11% premium to NAV, vs its historical average of 27%.

FCT has indicated is looking to raise equity to finance its acquisition of Bedok Point, as it did in its previous acquisition of North Point 2. We see this as a positive as it will help to improve its liquidity. We also like it for its resilient suburban mall portfolio.

We maintain our Buy rating on CREIT due to its stable income stream and high dividend yields.

Hold ratings for MLT and CCT
We downgrade MLT to a Hold as we believe that it may struggle to achieve acquisitive growth, which is their main growth driver. We also believe that the stock is suffering from an EFRoverhang given that its gearing level is the highest among our coverage. We maintain our Hold rating on CCT as we see few catalysts in the stock.

Risk factors
The key risks to our investment thesis largely surround the uncertainty over the global economy. We believe that a global recession would cause rents to depress and interest rates to soar.

Drastic deceleration in the global economy
The selldown in the global equity market in early August was triggered by the economic woes in Europe and the US. Should conditions in the West deteriorate further, or if there is a slowdown in the China (which RBS thinks is unlikely at the moment), Singapore’s open economy would be badly affected. This would hurt: 1) the industrial property sector, given the main driver behind the sector is global trade; 2) the office property sector, as demand for office space is highly correlated to Singapore’s GDP growth; and 3) the hotel sector, as tourist arrivals will be affected by slower economic growth, especially in Asia.

Deterioration in credit conditions
A deteriorating credit environment, which could be sparked by the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, would make it difficult for REITs to obtain financing. It will also lead to an increase in credit spreads and, hence, increase funding costs. While unlikely in the near term, a sudden and sharp increase in the US Fed rate would lead to a corresponding hike in rates in Singapore, hence increasing the overall cost of borrowing for S-REITs. We estimate interest expenses account for a substantial 25-35% of total costs. A high interest rate environment may also undermine S-REITs’ ability to achieve acquisitive growth.

Continuous increase in investment property capital values
Industrial property prices have hit a 10-year high while capital values of office and retail properties are less than 2% shy of their records. In a market flush with liquidity, demand for investment properties may increase further as investors seek avenues to combat rising inflation. A continuous increase in the price of investment properties will limit S-REITs’ ability to acquire accretively.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: RBS
Publish date:22/08/11
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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