Saturday, August 20, 2011

2011-0815-57金錢爆(這幾天,他們一起坑殺的散戶)



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date:15/08/11

2011-0811-57金錢爆(豬頭山遊樂場驚魂記!?)




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date:11/08/11

20110815唱旺新台灣》全球股災又來了 危機?契機?

20110815唱旺新台灣》全球股災又來了 危機?契機?


20110815唱旺新台灣》美國少一個A 全世界都大賠錢


20110815唱旺新台灣》進場買股票 時候還會到?


20110815唱旺新台灣》股票放暑假 絕佳買點何時到?






Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date:15/08/11

認購憑單當炒爆紅 股友須提高警惕

認購憑單當炒爆紅 股友須提高警惕

在股票市場中,必須具備多樣化的投資工具,才能吸引投資者進場,激躍市場成交量,而這也是監管單位-大馬交易所的責任之一。


認購憑單或香港俗稱的窩輪,是一項同為激躍市場成交量而衍生的工具,由於其波動與母股走勢息息相關,但價格卻較為廉宜,成為散戶的投機性工具。

在大馬,這項投資工具已有逐漸走熱的趨勢,從交易記錄(參考附表)顯示,1月至7月,認購憑單的總成交量達152億8996萬股,佔全場總成交量的8.14%,比較去年同期的65億7649萬股,高出1.3倍或133%!這清楚說明認購憑單在今年受熱炒的程度。另外,今年首7個月的總成交量亦和2010年全年168億9477萬股相差不遠,僅有9.5%距離。

若從成交價值來衡量,亦可看到同樣的局面。

今年首7個月成交的認購憑單總價值達32億5645萬令吉,比去年同時期的12億4672萬令吉,激增161%或1.6倍。

假如以今年首7個月的數據來平均估算,今年認購憑單成交量和成交值有望分別來到262億股和56億令吉水平,衝破去年168億股和33億令吉的紀錄,提升其對大馬市場成交貢獻。加上,作為外資的大馬華僑銀行(OCBC)近期也在大馬發出兩項認購憑單,更說明這項投資工具走紅現象。但市場人士卻不樂於見到這個現象,更警戒投資者必須額外謹慎,並奉勸投資者對這項投資工具最好敬而遠之。

有抽佣經紀更形容,投資認購憑單就猶如和發行憑單的投行(莊家)對賭,投機意味相當高!

受《資匯》詢問的市場人士一致認為,不熟悉認購憑單的股友,不應沾手,原因是認購憑單的投資環境和制度仍不完善,近期更傳出操縱母股價格壓低結算價(Settlement Price)疑雲,進一步敲起投資認購憑單的警鐘。

為此,市場人士更以4大要點向投資者點出投資認購憑單的潛在風險,奉勸投資者若不瞭解遊戲規則,不要貿然進場


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Oriental Dail
Publish date:21/08/11

捷運工程帶旺建築股

捷運工程帶旺建築股

(吉隆坡20日訊)政府宣佈成立捷運公司取代國家基建有限公司,執行捷運計劃和成為巴生谷捷運工程的資產管理方,市場對於這個轉變看法正面,並維持對建築領域的投資評級。


國家基建有限公司會在捷運完工後,成為該捷運線路的營運者。另外,陸路公共交通委員會將擔任該工程的監督機構,而MMC機構-金務大聯營公司將持續擔該工程傳遞夥伴(PDP)。

至於金務大(GAMUDA,5398,主板建築股)仍然是大部份分析員的首選。

目前,已有28家公司入圍雙溪毛糯-加影線相關工程,其中有18項工程競標將在9至12月間進行。至於隧道工程方面,相信即將公佈資格審核通過的承包商,並料在10月進行競標活動,在2012年2月頒發工程。

大馬研究認為,過往表現不錯的怡保工程(IJM,3336,主板建築股),在競標建築工程方面有相當好的機會。至於馬資源(MRCB,1651,主板建築股)、WCT有限公司(WCT,9679,主板建築股)和羅集團(LOH&LOH,7706,主板建築股)都具有潛力。

另外,對於價值80億令吉的隧道工程,MMC機構-金務大聯營公司在12位競標者當中仍佔上風,雖然其賺幅比之前預測會更具競爭力。

拉昔胡申研究表示,這個最新發展符合他們近期對建築領域的正面看法。

「政府迫切的推出各種工程以激勵國內經濟,以抵抗全球經濟不斷增加的雙重衰退風險。」

建築領域「增持」評級

早前,拉昔胡申研究已把其對建築領域的「中和」投資評級,上調至「增持」。不過,政府採取緊縮政策控制財政赤字、公共工程暫停或海外建築市場動力比預期差,都是潛在危機。

馬銀行投資銀行表示,捷運競標和頒發合約消息將為建築領域帶來購興,明年開始施工則會加強承包商未來2至3年的淨利。

在捷運計劃當中,該分析員對金務大保持「買進」看法,主要因為它將從與MMC機構聯營進行的隧道工程中受惠。另外,他維持對建築領域「增持」投資評級。拉昔胡申研究表示,對於捷運工程計劃或將延遲,及金務大在工程當中僅為小角色的說法並不正確,他們相信近期金務大已超賣。

另外,該研究認為福勝利(HSL,6238,主板建築股)股價近期持續下跌現像非常不合理,主要因為砂拉越州再生能源走廊特區(SCORE)的計劃可行性高,即使沒有政府資助也一樣能夠進行,因此,分析員看好福勝利的前景。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Oriental Dail
Publish date:21/08/11

Crash? You ain't seen nothing yet: analysts

Business Times - 20 Aug 2011


Crash? You ain't seen nothing yet: analysts

$21 billion wiped off Singapore market - but observers say stocks could fall another 20-30% before hitting bottom

By VEN SREENIVASAN

(Singapore)

THE bloodletting which wiped some $21 billion off the Singapore market yesterday could be the beginning of a selldown which could lop another 30 per cent off the value of stocks here.

That seems to be the view of some analysts and strategists following a rampage which dragged the Straits Times Index (STI) down 3.2 per cent or 91.33 points to 2,733.63 points yesterday - its lowest in 15 months.

'What we are seeing is a perfect storm - a confluence of negative factors,' said Prabodh Agrawal, CEO of Singapore-based IIFL Institutional Equities.

'Despite the selldowns we are now seeing, most blue chips and bellwethers here are still trading at just below their long- term price-book levels. During the last recession, they were trading at about two standard deviations below their long-term average. If we assume the same numbers and circumstances, stocks could fall another 20-30 per cent from current levels.'

The selldowns here and across the Asia Pacific region came on the heels of similar overnight savaging of Wall Street and European markets following more disappointing US economic data and intensifying concerns about a potential global economic recession triggered by the European sovereign debt crisis and a sharp US economic slump.

The dive across Asian bourses followed 3-5 per cent plunges in the US and Europe. And the selldown intensified as Wall Street futures remained deep in the red and Europe opened sharply lower again yesterday.

In Tokyo the Nikkei 225 gave up 2.51 per cent to 8,719.24, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 3.08 per cent to 19,399.9 and Sydney's ASX200 dived 3.51 per cent to 4,101.90.

In Singapore, with yesterday's plunge, some $117 billion has been lopped off the value of Singapore equities this month alone.

And technical analysts see more downside. Kim Eng Securities' technical charts suggest a potential low at 2,350 points - a whopping 14 per cent under current levels.

'Based on the weekly chart trends, our chartist sees the STI trading within the 2,600-2,680 area in the short term, which coincides with the 50 per cent Fibonacci level,' it said in a note yesterday. 'The index could further correct downwards to the 2,350-2,420 area if this support area is broken.'

But many analysts also point out that medium-term fundamentals-wise, many stocks are turning attractive and thus providing opportunities for bottom-fishing.

Melvyn Boey, head of research and strategy for Asean, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, added that although there's a looming crisis in the West, this region's fundamentals are intact.

'Asean, and especially Singapore, remain vulnerable to the impact of a global recession,' Mr Boey said.

'But, that said, South-east Asia's fundamentals are a lot stronger today than five or 10 years ago. Investors should look at stocks of companies with revenue growth, pricing power, cashflow and strong overall fundamentals to ride through the recession.'

Mr Boey added that while a recession seemed imminent, the down-cycles were getting shorter and tighter.

In short, the recovery could be as swift as the slide is brutal. So stick to fundamentals.

On the other hand, Mr Agrawal was more circumspect. 'The 2008/09 crisis lasted only four quarters because governments and central bankers were able to act aggressively and in concert to recapitalise distressed asset markets. Today, government balance sheets are in poor shape, thus diminishing their ability to act as aggressively,' he said.

Mr Agrawal noted that the intervention in 2008/09 had reflated the asset markets, but not the economies concerned. He now sees a potential for several rounds of continuous deleveraging dragging all asset markets - equities, commodities and property - further southwards. In Singapore, he cautions against jumping back into stocks too early.

But then, asset markets - especially equities - could get another reflation if US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke unveils a new stimulus package or 'QE3' at next Friday's Jackson Hole meeting.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:20/08/11

昨再跌91点 海指跌至今年新低

多重负面情绪集体爆发,新加坡海指上演四连跌,重挫91点或3%,创下今年最低闭市点。

  自8月4日标普下调美国债务主权信评后,全球股市经历一轮大地震。新加坡海指于上周四跌破2800点大关。上周五欧美开始传出利好消息,乐观情绪支撑海指连涨3天至2832.73点。

  投资者以为走出股灾,海指周二起开始小跌,为一周的悲剧收场埋下伏笔。

  昨天海指全线交易在2800点之下,以2755.59点低开后,一度上扬至2760.47点;闭市前套利活动加剧,跌幅一度拉大至95点,收报2733.63点。

  收盘前投资者仓皇离场,逼使海指写下今年最低闭市点,超越上周四的2796.22点。

  昨交易量超过15亿股,交易额超过18亿元,以575只下跌股对88只上升股。28只下挫的成分股,由怡和控股、云顶新加坡和星展银行领跌。

  欧洲对银行体制的担忧重燃,美国费城联储制造业数据低迷及上周初请失业救济金人数增加,摩根士丹利预测新加坡海指到年底将下调5%。。

  隔夜美国股市再次震荡,道指收挫逾3%,跌破11000点关口,标普500指数和纳指的跌幅更是分别超过4%和5%。

  Paradice投资研究公司驻悉尼基金经理里奥丹认为,投资者的信心被一步步啃蚀,如果没有任何协调政策出台,欧洲债务危机会越来越严重,最糟糕时类似2008年的金融风暴会重临。

华侨银行投资研究表示,更多投资者选择离场,2820点的立即支撑点跌破后,海指将逼近上周四2720点的低水平。
  路透/Jefferies商品指数,隔夜在纽约市场跌2.3%。相关股来宝集团跌8.5分报1.36元,奥兰国际跌20分报2.25元。

  以出口为主的电子制造商和船运公司,受美国经济复苏步伐缓慢拖累。安特工程跌9分报58分,创业公司跌14分报7.05元,海皇轮船跌7分报1.02元。

  原油期货连续两天下跌。相关股吉宝企业跌44分报8.60元,胜科海事跌37分报3.86元。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date:20/08/11

亚太股市 又见黑色星期五

亚太股市 又见黑色星期五
美国经济前景堪忧,加上欧洲债务危机可能蔓延,令美国股市隔夜大跌,亚太股市昨日也大幅滑落。

本地暴跌91.33点或3.23%

  本地海峡时报指数大跌91.33点或3.23%,至2733.63点。

  区域其他各地的股市也跌势凶猛。韩国股市因外国投资者恐慌性抛售而暴跌6.22%。印度尼西亚雅加达股市跌幅超过4%,台湾和澳大利亚股市也下跌超过3%,香港和日本股市分别跌3.08%和2.51%。

  有分析师指出,目前,投资者都对市场感到恐惧。美国经济有放缓的迹象,这严重影响了股市的表现。投资气氛低迷,这时候投资者应该考虑长线的投资。

  标准普尔证券研究亚洲副总裁陈丽子对本报表示,过去几天市场出现回弹,有可能是因为上个星期股市超卖后的技术性反弹。在出现新的正面消息之前,很难有可持续的上扬。

  摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的报告更是雪上加霜。日前,摩根士丹利调低了新加坡、印度尼西亚和泰国的股指目标预期,指新加坡海峡时报指数到了年底将比8月17日的闭市水平低5%。

  该机构的分析师认为,虽然亚细安市场的潜在企业盈利相对稳健,但市场在今年底以前都将面对挑战,企业盈利下调,加上外部市场走势所带来的影响,都将限制该地区市场的表现。

  美国劳工部隔夜公布的最新数据显示,上周申请失业救济金的美国人增加了9000个,经调整后达到42万9000人,显示劳动力市场正在衰退。这是过去三个星期来,申请人数第二次上升,也是一个月内所出现的最大增幅。

该数据令道琼斯指数隔夜大跌419.63点或3.68%至10990.58点,再次击穿11000点大关。
  市场人士指出,这些经济数据比三个月、甚至六个月以前更差。市场也正在消化这一消息,把经济放缓的可能性考虑到股市价格当中。

  陈丽子指出,昨日股市大幅滑落都是旧因引发,仍然是担心全球需求增长放缓,以及欧洲的债务危机,这也造成了华尔街和欧洲股市暴跌。

  太平洋投资管理(Pacific Investment Management)总裁埃尔·埃利安(El-Erian)也表示,股票市场的大幅滑落突显出经济出现衰退的可能性,同时投资者对政策制定者的信心也开始减弱。

  不只是散户不敢轻易入市,连机构投资者现在也非常谨慎。有交易员告诉本报,他已经全部清空了手上的股票,只买卖期货交易。尽管不少市场人士担心,这一次的股市调整未必能在短期内结束,但陈丽子认为并不会重演2008年的金融危机。

  她还提到,股市可能会出现回弹,但这并非可持续的上扬,整个第三季度可能一直在调整。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date:20/08/11

Tan Teng Boo: Says Stocks at Start of `Full-Fledged Bear Market'



Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Tan Teng Boo, managing director of Capital Dynamics Asset Management, talks about the outlook for global stocks and his investment strategy. Tan also discusses China's economy and central bank monetary policy. He speaks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television's "On the Move Asia." (Source: Bloomberg) .

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W8s1VvVw5wU

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.washingtonpost.com
Publish date:18/08/11

Global shares sell-off likely to continue

The Star Online > Business
Saturday August 20, 2011

Global shares sell-off likely to continue

By CECILIA KOK
cecilia_kok@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: That sinking feeling is back, as shares on Bursa Malaysia took a heavy beating yesterday in tandem with regional markets, following the dramatic plunge on Wall Street overnight.

Amid growing concerns that the global economic recovery is faltering and the European debt debacle may degenerate into a major crisis, market analysts are of the view that the global sell-off in stocks will likely last for a prolonged period, and that the Malaysian stock market will not be spared from this global rout.

The benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) yesterday ended 19.32 points, or 1.29%, lower at 1,483.98. On a regional basis, it was considered the better performing ones.

“It's a bloodbath, really,” Maybank Investment Bank Bhd's head of retail research, Lee Cheng Hooi, told StarBizWeek.

In a tone that made him sound like Malaysia's own version of Dr Doom, Lee said the stock market slump would likely last for a while.

“Upward catalyst? Is there any? Where?” he quipped. “The Western economies are in a dire state. The European debt crisis is not something that can be solved easily. It's going to be a great, great problem looming over global financial markets for a while.”

MIDF Research shared the same sentiment. It explained in its recent report that the severe retracement in the local market was clearly a contagion effect from the turmoil on Wall Street.

“When global sentiment towards equity is weak, no market can claim to have decoupled from Wall Street, the centre of the world's equity market.

“We believe investors are bracing for a prospect of either a global double-dip recession or a marked slower-than-expected growth,” it said.

MIDF Research had ascribed a 40% probability for the US to head for a double-dip, the eurozone economies to enter a recession and China to head for a hard landing.

Most analysts believed the US economy was drifting closer to a recession, as high unemployment posed risk to consumer spending. Following news that the average number of workers filing for jobless claims during the week ended Aug 13 had risen by 9,000 to 408,000, US stocks tumbled, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Thursday down by 419.63 points, or 3.7%, to 10,990.58.

The prevailing uncertainties sent gold prices soaring to new record high. Spot gold was quoted around US$1,863.10 per ounce yesterday evening.

The bears were back, and the negative vibes would surely be felt across regional markets, HwangDBS Vickers Research said.

MIDF Research said it expected the local bourse to encounter a “death cross” in mid-September, upon which the FBM KLCI movement could fall below its long-term moving average, triggering a secular (long-lasting) downward trend.

How long will this last? Well, in 2008, it lasted for more than six months.

While there could be some technical rebounds along the way, selling pressure on the Malaysian equity market would unlikely cease over the medium term.

Technical analysts believed the FBM KLCI could be testing the recent low of 1,423.47 very soon.

“We are still within the confines of a rising wedge pattern (a technical term to describe further downward direction), which will soon see a breakdown,” said MIB's Lee.

When asked for his advice to investors, he said: “So, why buy now when you can buy at much lower levels eventually?”


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: The Star Online
Publish date:20/08/11

CMA: Increase stakes in Minhang Plaza and Hongkou Plaza in Shanghai (Phillip)

CapitaMalls Asia Limited
Buy (Maintained)
Closing Price S$1.175
Target Price S$1.76 (+49.8%)
52wk High (10/6/2010) 2.330
52wk Low (8/15/2011) 1.165

_ Increase stakes in two prime assets in Shanghai with total investment of S$949.7mil
_ Post-acquisition effective stakes would be 65% for Minhang Plaza and 72.5% for Hongkou Plaza
_ Positive move as assets will be income-generating by end-2011
_ Maintain Buy with fair value raised to S$1.76

Increase stakes in Minhang Plaza and Hongkou Plaza in Shanghai
CMA announced that it has entered into conditional agreements to acquire the remaining 50% stakes each in Minhang Plaza and Hongkou Plaza in Shanghai for about S$949.7 mil in total. CMA’s post-acquisition effective stakes in the properties will be 65% (previously 15%) and 72.5% (previously 22.5%) respectively. The purchase prices were derived based on the latest valuation of Minhang Plaza at approximately S$632.5mil (Rmb23,059 psm), and Hongkou Plaza at S$1,278.1mil (Rmb30,990psm). The proposed acquisitions will be funded through internal funds and external borrowings, and are subject to the relevant governmental approvals.

Income-producing assets
As Minhang Plaza has commenced operations and Hongkou Plaza is expected to commence operations by end-2011, we see the acquisitions as a positive move by CMA to strengthen its bottom-line almost immediately. The management expects the mall of Minhang and Hongkou to generate yield of 5% and 4% respectively after the first year of its opening. Occupancy level at Minhang is c.98% committed while Hongkou is c.90% commited. Following these acquisitions, CMA would have spent approximately $1.5bil YTD, out of the committed $2bil total investment value for FY11.

Maintain Buy with fair value raised from $1.75 to $1.76
We adjust our estimates to factor in the acquisitions and RNAV is increased from $1.94 to $2.07. However, we ascribe a higher discount to RNAV of 15% (previously 10%) to reflect the current uncertain market sentiment due to concern over the Euro zone debt crisis and health of the US economy. Consequently, fair value is raised marginally from $1.75 to $1.76, representing a potential upside of 49.8% to its latest closing price. We believe the stock is heavily oversold at the current level (PBR 0.74x) given its strong development pipeline of retail malls in China and Singapore. We maintain our Buy recommendation.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Phillip Securities Research
Publish date:19/08/11

CMA: Raises stake in Shanghai assets (DBSV)

CapitaMalls Asia Limited
BUY S$1.175
Price Target : S$ 2.51
Raises stake in Shanghai assets
• Acquiring an additional 50% in Minhang Plaza and Hongkou Plaza
• Deepening exposure in Shanghai
• Maintain Buy, TP S$2.51

Taking majority stakes in 2 Shanghai malls. CMA announced it is buying an additional 50% stake each in Minhang Plaza (US$262.6m) and Hongkou Plaza (US526.4m) in Shanghai for US$789m (S$949.7m). This will give the group an effective 65% share in the first mall and 72.5% stake in the latter. Minhang Plaza is a retail/commercial development located in the centre of Minhang District in Shanghai with 88,736sm of retail GFA (59,405sm NLA) and 58,107sm of office area. Minhang Plaza is currently 98% occupied and the retail portion is already operational. Hongkou Plaza is located opposite the Hongkou Football Stadium and connected to metro lines 3 and 8 and is an lighting point for 6 bus lines. It has 170,266sm of retail (92609sm NLA) and 50,515sm of office space. Hongkou Plaza is 90% leased and is expected to open l ater this year.

Deepening exposure into Shanghai. The deal was based on the underlying property price of RMB3,386m (RMB23,043psm) for Minhang and RMB6,784.4m (RMB30,729psm) for Hongkou or a slight 1% discount to valuation. This translates to a NPI yield of at least 5% for Minhang and 4% for Hongkou. We view this strategy as positive in deepening its exposure to Tier 1 city China malls with majority/full ownership of 6 malls in Shanghai as well as increasing its share in an income-generating asset. While the initial yield for Hongkou Plaza seems relatively tight vs the rest of its portfolio, we believe there is room for improvement due to the low retail space utilisation of only 54% presently. With this acquisition, CMA would have done c$2bn worth of new investments group-wide YTD in Singapore, Malaysia and China. The group intends to fund this acquisition via internal resources and bank borrowings. Assuming full debt funding, this could utilize CMA’s balance sheet capacity, resulting in a slight gearing ratio of 12%. This is still healthy and the group is well-placed to further optimize its balance sheet.

Maintain Buy, TP S$2.51. CMA remains a major player in the retail real estate niche that offers leverage into the pan Asian consumption growth story. Maintain Buy. The stock is trading at 0.77x P/bk NAV and at a steep 48% discount to RNAV of S$2.29.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: DBS Vickers Research
Publish date:19/08/11

All that glitters is gold

All that glitters is gold
With stock markets in a slump, gold prices hit record as it becomes an alternative investment
by Beh Hsia Wa
04:45 AM Aug 20, 2011

In recent months, the stock market continues to be volatile due to the weak US dollar and unresolved United States and European debt issues. Against this backdrop, political and economic uncertainties have caused investors much anxiety and driven them to the gold market over the past few months

This is no surprise as gold is often considered a safe haven during times of uncertainty. Other factors such as war, mining production and jewellery consumption could also possibly affect gold prices. However, in recent years, the economic and political instabilities have been the main contributing factors towards gold price fluctuations.

The price of gold rose to a record high last month in US dollars as well as in euro, sterling pound and Swiss francs. Gold is a major beneficiary of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the wider concern about growing government deficits in the developed economies.

The gold market has been in an uptrend for the last 10 years. From July 2009 to July this year, gold prices increased almost 77 per cent from US$905.10 per ounce at its lowest in July 2009 to a record high of US$1,600 on July 18 this year.

Many short-term speculators and long-term investors remain bullish on gold prices. If the market can break the resistance at the US$1,600 price level, chartists predict that gold prices can continue to rise to US$1,620.



The advantages of owning gold

In times of economic uncertainties, many people invest in gold as a way of dealing with the unforeseen problems caused by inflation or recession. Gold may be a good approach to balance one's portfolio as the precious metal has shown strong returns over recent years. The fact that it is not correlated with most other assets means that the price of gold is not driven by the same factors that affect the performance of other assets.

Declining mine output, weaker recycling, net purchase by central bank, de-hedging by producers, geopolitical tensions, concerns about rising government debt (sovereign risk), credit risk and currency debasement all lead to boosting the demand for the precious metal as an alternative asset and a store of value. Low interest cost has also reduced the opportunity cost of owning gold and makes it a more attractive investment. The Federal Reserve has kept its benchmark lending rate at zero to 0.25 per cent since December 2008. Gold, which pays no interest, becomes a more attractive investment when borrowing costs decline.

Gold coins and small bars are generally a liquid market, and you can find sellers and buyers when you need them. They are relatively accessible to smaller investors. Coins in particular can be bought with modest amounts of money; a one-kilo gold bar is around S$62,542 per kilogramme (before GST) as at July 21.



Where to get started

There are a variety of tools to invest in gold. These include investments in gold bullion coins and gold bars, gold certificates as well as gold exchange traded funds. Investors can also open a gold savings or gold margin trading account.

Gold bullion coins in denominations of one ounce, ½ ounce, ¼ ounce, 1/10 ounce and 1/20 ounce are usually purchased for their intrinsic value. Wealthier gold investors can also consider the 1,000 grammes gold kilobars of 999.9 fine gold.

The gold certificate, not subject to GST, is a convenient way to invest in gold. Gold certificates are issued in multiples of 1 kilobar, up to a maximum of 30 kilobars of 999.9 fine gold each certificate.

The minimum purchase and maintenance requirement for a Gold Savings Account is 5g of 999.9 fine gold, and subsequent transactions may be in multiples of only 1g.

Investors may also consider opening a margin trading account with commodity brokers. They can then trade gold futures or spot gold on margin basis. Alternatively, the investors can also trade gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) on the stock exchange, just like trading shares.



Risks associated with investing in gold

There is a monthly fee for holding gold in a Gold Savings Account. The purchase and sale of gold by investors are recorded in pocket-size passbooks as deposit and withdrawal.

The administrative charge is 0.12g of gold per month or 0.25 per cent on the highest monthly gold balance, whichever is higher. The administrative charges will be accrued monthly and deducted from your account yearly.

The actual gold quantity deducted from your account at the end of the year will be slightly more than those calculated above, due to the GST involved.

Like any other investments, gold investors should always be mindful of his or her risk appetite. Investments in gold are not guaranteed by the bank and are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Value of the investments and administrative fees can go up or down, depending on the fluctuations in international and/or local gold and silver markets and foreign exchange market.

For those engaging in leverage trading, investors should typically allocate more funds than the minimum margin required to trade in order to provide themselves with a buffer in case gold price goes against them.



When to strike

Gold's near-term destiny is inversely correlated with the US dollar. The recent weakening of the US dollar has seen an increase in gold prices. Precious metals have rallied impressively since August last year. We expect a combination of buying by investors and speculators to provide good support for the market.

United Overseas Bank usually pays for gold, supplied from different parts of the world, in US dollars. However, the bank sells gold in Singapore dollars, as per the general market practice in Singapore. Investors should always remember to take exchange rates of their local currencies into consideration when investing in gold.



Ms Beh Hsia Wa is director of bullion sales, global markets and investment management at United Overseas Bank.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: TODAYonline
Publish date:20/08/11

金價破1850美元 大馬金飾門市再調漲

金價破1850美元 大馬金飾門市再調漲

(吉隆坡19日訊)由於市場擔憂歐美債務將引發全球經濟再度衰退,促使投資者搶購黃金避險,導致黃金現貨與12月活躍期貨價格再度攀漲新高,突破每安士1850美元的水平。


同時,在黃金價格日益上漲的趨勢下,大馬金鑽商聯合總會再度上調金飾門市價,調整幅度介於每克5令吉至11令吉之間,並從8月20日起正式生效。

大馬金鑽商聯合總會宣佈,999足金上調11令吉至每克212令吉,而916金則上漲10令吉,報每克200令吉。至於835金、750金和375金,分別上調9令吉、8令吉與5令吉,至每克184令吉、165令吉與90令吉。

在歐洲主權債務危機仍持續蔓延、美國週四公佈的經濟數據遠遜預期、摩根士丹利下調全球經濟增長預期等因素催化下,令投資者擔心美國經濟可能陷入二次衰退,從而讓全球經濟增速放緩。

這些因素讓投資者紛紛拋售股票、債券,甚至大宗商品等投資工具,轉而搶購黃金避險。因此,在黃金價格週四首次突破1800令吉水平掛收後,週五黃金價格再度勇闖新高。

其中,黃金現貨價格一度上探每安士1867.95美元,而尾盤仍處在1863.10美元的價位。至於12月的活躍黃金期貨價格,則更上探至1872.20美元的價位,截至尾盤仍報1867.20美元。

德國商業銀行根據最新的世界黃金協會需求報告預言,金價將繼續在高位受到良好支持,並透露:「金價屢創新高明顯沒有影響中印兩國黃金需求,在各國央行成為黃金淨買家的情況下,金價有望繼續高位運行。」

無論如何,大宗商品市場卻因此而下挫,當中原油、汽油和小麥價格跌幅居首。根據追蹤24種大宗商品走勢的標普GSCI指數,週四以本週最低的水平掛收,報635.30點,下跌3.3%。

同時,紐約原油期貨價格週四下滑5.9%,至每桶82.38美元後,週五再度延續下滑格局,並一度跌破80美元水平,觸及79.17令吉的近期新低。截至尾盤,原油期貨價格報每桶80.39美元,下滑2.42%。

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Oriental Daily
Publish date:20/08/11

不敵外圍負面 馬股跟進敗退

不敵外圍負面 馬股跟進敗退
姚思敏

(吉隆坡19日訊)由於外圍因素的衝擊太大,即便馬股擁有強勁的基本面,或政府推出新工程,也無法全面抵銷外圍因素對馬股的影響,因而馬股近期的走勢將完全受控於外圍走勢。


自上週標準普爾下調美國評級而造成全球股慌後,今日亞太股市則因摩根史丹利和高盛雙雙下調全球經濟預期,以及美國經濟數據疲軟,再度暴跌。

美國公佈的經濟數據遜色引起市場的憂慮,包括美國7月份通貨膨脹率和失業救濟金增加人數超越預測、成屋銷售下滑、企業盈利跌破預測等,導致美國和歐洲隔夜股市應聲下挫。

此外,摩根史丹利和高盛也分別將全球經濟預測調低,而摩根史丹利也下調區域股市的目標。

在負面因素拖累下,區域股市再度暴跌,而區域基準指數已連續4週陷入跌勢。

當中,韓國首爾綜合指數創最大跌幅,全日猛挫6.22%,至1744.88點。

在市場強勁賣壓下,富時大馬綜合指數今日以低於1500點的水平,即1491.67點開盤後,一度下挫至全日最低的1477.70點。綜指雖嘗試收窄跌幅,但最後依然收黑,閉市報1483.98點,下跌19.32點或1.285%。

市場人士認為,馬股將會持續受到海外因素牽引,並對股市抱持悲觀的看法。由於外圍因素帶來的衝擊太大,即使政府推出經濟轉型計劃,甚至推出多項大型工程,也僅能緩衝外圍因素對大馬的衝擊,但卻無法全面抵銷這影響。

聯昌國際投行研究主管黃大任在接受《東方財經》的電訪時表示:「外圍因素牽引全球股市,即使擁有良好基本面的個別市場也無法倖免。」

政府新工程難提振股市

抽佣經紀符之源指出,接下來,如果政府推出新的工程,或許能帶動特定的公司股價,但無法提振整體股市的走勢。同時,由於至今仍未看到政府真正落實早前宣佈的工程,所以帶動馬股的路途還太遙遠。他補充,若馬股來週連續數日處在1500點的心理水平以下,市場將會出現很大的下調風險。

同時,肯南嘉投資銀行研究主管陳建堯也表示,如果馬股接下來跌破1475點,並進一步下探至1400至1430點,意味著與1500點的距離越來越遠。

「即使大馬推出經濟轉型計劃,我相信長期最高也僅能將馬股推向1510至1540點,但相信不會在近期內出現。我認為,如果大馬能夠維持強勁的內需,或至少能夠緩衝外圍因素的影響。」

Areca Capital基金經理黃德明也指出,外圍因素不穩定,引發避險情緒,促使外資紛紛套現離場,轉向黃金、大宗商品等市場。因此,基本面強穩已不是他們的考慮因素,並有可能完全脫售目前持有的股權。

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Oriental Daily
Publish date:20/08/11

Gold hits a new high as investors seek safety

Gold hits a new high as investors seek safety
11:34 PM Aug 19, 2011
NEW YORK - Gold reached new heights Friday, soaring as high as US$1,881 an ounce, as investors anxious about the uncertain global economy snapped up the precious metal.

Stock markets in Europe and Asia continued a slide that began Thursday on disappointing economic news and worries about the strength of European banks.

US stock futures are down as well.

In morning trading gold was up US$43, or 2.3 per cent, at US$1,864.60 an ounce. AP


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: TODAYonline
Publish date:19/08/11

Friday, August 19, 2011

憂歐美經濟崩盤‧全球又股災

憂歐美經濟崩盤‧全球又股災
Created 08/19/2011 - 18:30

(吉隆坡19日訊)摩根士丹利大砍全球經濟成長預測,美經濟數據唱衰與歐洲銀行資金陷困等惡耗四面埋伏,全球金融風暴一觸即發,股災捲土重來,美股一度狂瀉逾500點,歐股猛挫逾6%,亞股重演“黑色星期五”,重創1至6%。

馬股一度跌25.6點

全球經濟陰雨蒙蒙,股市壓力重重,馬股開盤即跳空重摔,輕易失守1500點,還一度慘跌25.6點或1.7%至1477.70點低泣,儘管嘗試收復失地,因市場信心大失的賣壓空襲不斷,始終無力突破重圍,全天跌19.32點至1483.98點。

全球經濟陷入二次衰退的驚慌愈演愈激烈,摩根士丹利砍經濟預測引發全球經濟“逼近衰退”危險邊緣恐慌、美聯儲局監控駐美的歐行融資能力,擔心延燒的歐債危機波及美國金融體系、美聯儲局再祭振興配套希望破滅等烏雲密佈,全球市場驚慌失措,各國股市相繼淪陷。

西歐18家主要股市週四隔夜哀鴻遍野,開低後一路走低,慘跌逾5%,德股更以重摔5.82%創2008年以來最大跌幅。

歐股猛挫逾6%
美股一度瀉逾500點

歐洲股災四處蔓延,瑞典、芬蘭股市盤中跌深超過6%,新興歐洲的波蘭更一度慘跌逾8%;英國股市收盤重挫4.49%。

美股也宣告全軍覆沒,道瓊斯工商指數開盤一瀉千里,大挫528點,收市仍挫419點至10990.58點;納斯達克指數跌幅更超過5%,挫5.22%至2380.43點;標準普爾500指數喪失4.46%至1140.65點。

韓股重創逾6%
日股跌幅逾2.5%

受歐美股市暴跌波及,亞股兵敗如山倒,韓國股市再度成為“重災區”,災情不斷擴大,全天重創逾6%,寫2009年以來最深跌幅。

MSCI亞太指數早上11時已丟掉2.5%到120.13點,回吐年初所有漲幅,也是連續四週收黑,陷入截至6月17日一週以來最長下挫格局。

台股盤中最高跌掉近300點,跌幅達3.8%之高,市值更是直接跌破20兆台幣關卡,最低來到19.54兆台幣,一天市值就蒸發掉7千894億台幣,創1年來新低。

日圓高居不下增添日本股市壓力,日股連跌3天,早盤即掀起重重賣壓,跌幅逾2.5%;香港股市大幅低開,失守2萬點;東南亞股市尤以印尼與新加坡傷勢最重,股市展望遭下調,跌幅皆超過3%。

歐股週五開盤續跌,猛挫3至5%。




全球股市
橫盤築底

分析員指出,目前市場異常脆弱,任何風吹草動都會牽動股市驚濤駭浪,但因全球股市現已打落11倍本益比,再破底可能性不高,全球股市這段期限在3至5%幅度內震盪“很正常”,大方向將以橫盤築底為主。

3至5%震幅“正常”

波士頓豐信信託公司操盤手穆蘭尼直言,全球經濟成長前景唱淡,全世界買家彷彿在罷工下,短期內投資組合都會傾向避險操作。

分析員強調,市場正開始消化經濟衰退,接二連三慘淡的經濟數據令市場信心已難振,除非市場看到決策者處理區元區債務問題的更明顯方向,否則情況不會好轉。

金價一度寫1837美元新高

另一方面,資金大逃亡再掀金市避險風潮,國際金價一度衝到每安士1千837.35美元,再創歷史新高價,連續第5天走高。

因經濟降溫抑制商品需求,商品價紛紛下挫,油價更領跌,原油價一度挫至80.84美元。匯市方面,美元有一定支撐,除美元兌日圓跌至76.50一線,兌其他貨幣維持升勢。

大摩大砍東盟股市預測
印尼和新加坡首當其衝

摩根士丹利大砍東盟股市預測,備受看好的印尼與新加坡股市首當其衝,印尼股市年杪預測自13%漲幅降至1%增幅,新加坡股市22%的上探潛力不但難保,還可能“開倒車”丟失5%。

新加坡股市或丟失5%

摩根士丹利也削減泰國亞太股市指數,泰國指數預計年杪前僅躍升2%。

摩根士丹利直言:儘管東盟盈利潛力相對穩健,但接下來挑戰連連,潛在盈利下調與全球惡耗流竄,難免限制東盟股市今年後期表現。

“全球成長放緩下,相信估值可能尾隨歷史平均值,重估潛力難期。”

摩根士丹利分析員提到,新加坡可能是全球經濟成長放緩最受影響的國家,新加坡股市今年已失血14%,是續越南股市後,東南亞中表現第二差勁的股市。

根據《彭博社》,印尼股市今年已起5.6%,是亞洲表現第二佳者,公司股價以盈利預測15.5倍本益比交易,為亞洲主要指數最高者;泰國股市在大選結果出爐後受提振,今年也已取得4.1%收獲。



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 星洲日報
Publish date:19/08/11

國民大會:美債股災身價縮 20110815

美債股災身價縮(1/4) 20110815


美債股災身價縮(2/4) 20110815


美債股災身價縮(3/4) 20110815


美債股災身價縮(4/4) 20110815

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date:15/08/11

STI drops 3.2% to 2,733.63 at closing

Singapore’s Straits Times Index sank 3.2% to 2,733.63, the lowest close since June 2010. All except two in the index of 30 companies fell. The gauge dropped 4.1% this week, extending its three-week slump to 14%.

Morgan Stanley said it expects the MSCI Singapore Index to fall 5% by end-2011, from its previous forecast of a 22% advance. “Singapore is likely to be the most significantly impacted by a slowdown in global growth,” the brokerage said in a note to clients. The following shares were among the most active in the market.

Commodity suppliers: The Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index, which tracks prices of 19 commodities from copper to corn, fell 2.3% in New York yesterday. Noble Group, (NOBL SP) a Hong Kong-based supplier of energy, food and mining commodities, slumped 5.9% to S$1.36. Olam International (OLAM SP), a Singapore-based supplier of agricultural commodities, tumbled 8.2% to $2.25.

Export-related companies: Shares of electronics makers and shipping companies dropped amid deepening concern the U.S. economic recovery is slowing. The world’s biggest economy may expand less than previously forecast in 2011 and 2012 because of potential “political paralysis” and fiscal tightening steps, Citigroup Inc. wrote in a report after data yesterday showed jobless claims rose and Philadelphia-area manufacturing shrank by the most since 2009.

Amtek Engineering (AMTK SP), a supplier of precision components to companies including Sony Corp., plunged 13% to 58 cents. Venture Corp. (VMS SP), Singapore’s biggest publicly traded electronics manufacturing services provider, slipped 2% to $7.05. Neptune Orient Lines (NOL SP), Southeast Asia’s biggest shipping line that gets more than half of revenue from the “Americas,” decreased 6.4% to $1.02.

Oil-rig builders: The world’s biggest builders of offshore platforms declined as crude oil futures dropped for a second day on concern slower economic growth will weaken demand for the commodity. Keppel Corp. (KEP SP) dropped 4.9% to $8.60. Smaller rival Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) fell 8.8% to $3.86.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.theedgesingapore.com
Publish date: 19/08/11

Man U applies to SGX for listing

Business Times - 19 Aug 2011


Man U applies to SGX for listing

(SINGAPORE) English Premier League champions Manchester United have filed an application with the Singapore stock exchange for a public listing, a source close to the deal said yesterday.

The Red Devils, the Premiership title- holders and three-time champions of Europe, submitted their application with the Singapore Exchange (SGX) 'last week', the source told AFP on condition of anonymity.

SGX will study the application and, if approved, will issue the club an 'eligibility to list' letter, after which United can lodge its prospectus with the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the source added.

United plan to issue their initial public offering (IPO) in the fourth quarter, said the source. Press reports said that United aim to generate US$1 billion with the IPO of 30 per cent of the club's shares.

One source with knowledge of the IPO plan told AFP on Wednesday that the club chose Asia over London for the listing because the region accounts for 190 million out of the estimated 330 million United followers worldwide.

In addition, most of the club's sponsors are also based in Asia or generate a large part of revenue from the region. 'Asia has been integral to the club from a fan point of view and also from a commercial point of view,' the source said on Wednesday.

United were ranked by business magazine Forbes earlier this year as the world's most valuable football club with a value of US$1.86 billion. Media estimates of US$1 billion for 30 per cent of the club's shares means a total valuation for the company of more than US$3 billion. -- AFP


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date: 19/08/11

No need for action amid negative SOR: MAS

Business Times - 19 Aug 2011


No need for action amid negative SOR: MAS

By TEH SHI NING

(SINGAPORE) Singapore's domestic money markets continue to function in an orderly manner, and there has been no need for 'extraordinary measures', the Monetary Authority of Singapore said yesterday, in response to media queries on the fall of the Singapore dollar swap offer rate (SOR) into unprecedented negative territory last week.

All but the one-month SORs yesterday remained under zero, though the six-month SOR was the only one to slip. The three-month SOR climbed slightly to -0.17152, while the six-month SOR fell to -0.63274. Both were up from last week's lows of -0.6987 and -0.99258 respectively.

In yesterday's statement, the MAS reiterated that interest rates here are determined by the market, and that its current monetary policy stance, of a gradual appreciation of the Singapore dollar against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, 'remains appropriate'.

'Given the economy's openness to capital flows, domestic interest rates are strongly influenced by global liquidity conditions,' said the MAS. And Singapore's interest rates have been low for some time due to historically low global interest rates, as major economies maintain loose monetary policies in the face of weak economic recovery. For instance, the US Federal Reserve recently pledged to keep its policy rate close to zero till mid-2013.

Recently, 'volatility in global financial market has caused some investors to seek the safety of short-term cash deposit', the MAS said. Safe-haven inflows into AAA-rated Singapore have been most evident in the forward markets. As the SOR is a derived cost of borrowing Singapore dollars, it has turned negative due to expectations of continued Sing dollar appreciation against the greenback.

An OCBC Treasury Research report yesterday said that there have been 'unsubstantiated market rumours' that the central bank did not fully intervene to mop up excess liquidity. 'But it is highly unlikely that an excessively low interest rate policy is being engineered here to support growth or re-inflate the economy, as central bank independence and credibility is at stake,' said OCBC.

As many businesses and mortgage loans are pegged to SOR, the anomalous negative SORs last week prompted banks to invoke market disruption clauses. These clauses allow the renegotiation of loans to reset interest rates to the cost of funds or the Singapore Interbank Offered Rate instead. The SIBOR too, has slipped, but remains in positive territory.

MAS said that the next monetary policy statement will be released as scheduled in mid-October

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date: 19/08/11

Takeaways from CIMB ASEAN REIT Conference

REIT
OVERWEIGHT Maintained
Takeaways from CIMB ASEAN REIT Conference

Positive underlying tone
We recently hosted nine Singapore and Malaysia REITs at our inaugural Asean REIT conference. While investors were generally not pricing in a double dip, most appeared increasingly cautious. Coupled with value emerging from the recent selldown, we sensed increased interest in REITs, with a particular preference for those in more resilient segments like industrial, retail and healthcare. The overall tone from REITs was also positive; they had yet to notice any ramifications from the slowdown in advanced economies, though they would be monitoring developments. Growth among Malaysian REITs was intact. We continue to expect REITs to outperform in the current environment of risk aversion and low interest rates and with stronger balance sheets after the global financial crisis. Our top picks are AREIT, FCOT, Starhill and Cache. We also like CMT and CDLHT at current valuations.

Takeaways
Gravitating towards REITs with market uncertainties. During the conference, we sensed increased caution among investors after the recent market selldown, with more turning to S-REITs given increased risk aversion. Most REITs also gave the feedback that they had been receiving more investor interest and enquiries. While turning cautious, investors were not yet pricing in a double dip. Questions centred on rental growth and expansion via acquisitions or development. Most agreed with us that S-REITs have emerged with stronger balance sheets and portfolios from the last crisis. We also sensed increased interest in S-REITs among Malaysian investors, which we attribute to the recent high-profile REIT listings in Malaysia such as CMMT and Sunway REIT.

Still positive; though increased risks noted. Recent market volatilities and developments in advanced economies have not affected REITs yet. Notwithstanding slowing growth in advanced economies, industry participants remained positive on growth in the region. However, most would be monitoring developments closely.

Industrial REITs continued to expect positive rental reversions on the back of rising spot rentals and rental step-ups. Investors liked the stability from industrial leases but were slightly wary of a seeming slowdown in manufacturing in Singapore. Industrial S-REITs, however, noted that manufacturing remains a core component of Singapore’s economy and continued to see bright spots as local manufacturing transitions to higher-value-added products and services.

Optimism among office REITs slightly more tempered. While spot rents for most office S-REITs remained healthy, more investors were starting to question rental growth next year. We noted a moderation in tone among the office S-REITs, on the back of a slowing leasing momentum, significant physical completions in 2012 and potential growth concerns. Most expected rental growth to be more moderate in 1H12, before picking up again in 2H12 as supply tightens in 2013.

Acquisition environment remains difficult, locally. Most REITs remained keen to grow via acquisitions. Opportunities are, however, limited with the system still flush with liquidity. Industrial REITs noted a difficult acquisition environment, given increased competition from new entrants such as private funds, smaller players and other industrial REITs. Most were thus gravitating towards development (mainly buildto- suit) and redevelopment, given their enhanced yields, the small capital outlays, short gestation periods and REITs’ ability to mitigate leasing risks by building to suit. Similar concerns on compressed yields and a lack of quality assets for acquisition were expressed by the office S-REITs.

S-REITs
AREIT (Outperform, TP: S$2.15). Many investors agreed with us that AREIT was one of the more defensive names with its rents generally stable despite swings in prime office rents. AREIT noted an increasingly difficult local acquisition environment with increased competition and limited investment-grade assets for acquisition. That said, management continued to see opportunities in business parks. While overseas acquisitions remained an option, management continued to give priority to local business-park acquisitions and build-to-suit projects. Management was also specific about its overseas expansion, pointing to China’s business-space assets for now. Should the Iskandar project take off, Malaysia could be of interest further down the road though it cited a lack of critical mass and skilled labour as deterrents for now.

Cache (Outperform, TP: S$1.15). Investors mostly appreciated Cache’s stability but were concerned about concentration risks and growth. Investors noted Cache’s dependence on master lessees, CWT and C&P. Management, however, believed that this risk could be mitigated by: 1) the strength and clout of CWT and C&P in the logistics space locally; and 2) the quality and location of Cache’s assets which should reduce the difficulty of filling up space even when tenants move out. Investors were split on Cache’s recent maiden overseas acquisition. While some thought Cache should stay local given familiarity and economies of scale, others saw growth opportunities from going overseas. Management reassured investors that Singapore would remain its core market. Nonetheless, with the government controlling the new supply of warehouse space, going overseas would be pertinent to its growth.

CCT (Underperform, TP: S$1.25). Discussions centred on its office portfolio and the redevelopment of the Market Street Car Park. The CEO continued to guide for negative rental reversions for 2011 and possibly 1H12 though Six Battery Road has been signing up rents at a healthy S$13 psf. Vacancy at Six Battery Road and Capital Tower had quickly been filled by expansion by existing tenants. Management did concede that the demand for large office space has slowed with the bulk of the leasing having taken place last year. Meanwhile, it remained optimistic of achieving a 6% yield on costs in 2014 for the Market Street Car Park on completion, in view of limited office completions in that year. While investors appeared less sanguine on offices given near-term negative rental reversions, some noted CCT’s stronger balance sheet in this cycle, following its success in refinancing a chunk of its CMBS recently. Management did not foresee difficulties in refinancing its 2012 loan and could seek to unencumber Capital Tower should the interest-cost differential be minimal.

FCOT (Outperform, TP: S$0.91). Investors were keen to hear management’s views on the potential redevelopment of KeyPoint into a mixed residential and commercial development. Management explained that this move was still exploratory, primarily motivated by a potential capital-value uplift upon conversion from office use (S$913 psf) to residential/retail use, given the property’s proximity to the Nicoll Highway MRT station. Funds could be used to redeem its 5.5% CPPU and for acquisitions. Investors were also curious on its acquisition pipeline and timeline. While FCOT has a pipeline from its sponsor, management noted that its sponsor may not be keen to sell in the current market and it might not be easy for FCOT to inject assets in an accretive manner given its current high trading yields. On refinancing, management remained sensitive to current markets risks and would time its refinancing in accordance with market conditions.

MIT (Outperform, TP: S$1.24). Discussions centred on organic growth and acquisitions. MIT remained positive on its organic growth given an under-rented flatted factory portfolio, the removal of rental caps since Jun 11 and pockets of growth within the local manufacturing scene. While tender pricing for Tranche 2 of the JTC divestment appeared aggressive, management saw the potential for stronger reversionary rents given a well-located portfolio and with rents significantly below JTC’s posted rents. In terms of acquisitions, management noted that its sponsor actually has no more assets in its portfolio while JTC is unlikely to divest more flatted factories in the near term. However, MIT noted opportunities for extracting returns from build-to-suit projects by tapping unutilised GFA in parts of its portfolio.

PLife REIT (Outperform, Target price: S$2.05). Investors liked the resilient and inflation-proof portfolio of PLife. Key concerns revolved around its Japanese exposure and acquisition growth. As an unfamiliar market and asset class for most investors, management shared the rationale and operating metrics of its Japanese nursing homes. Some asked about insurance coverage after the earthquake. Management explained that there has always been insurance coverage for its Japanese assets but coverage has since been expanded after the earthquake. Current coverage includes business disruptions after earthquakes. PLife is still in talks with Malaysian operators (both third parties and sponsor, Khazanah) for acquisitions. Other overseas markets it is interested in include Australia.

Suntec REIT (Underperform, TP: S$1.38). Management remained positive on Suntec City’s offices. However, given physical completions expected next year and a slowing leasing momentum, management would try to protect occupancy. Rents at Suntec City Mall are stable and within management control. Its recent acquisition of the Suntec Convention Centre ties in with its AEI plans for Suntec City Mall. While management remained tight-lipped on its plans, it highlighted the good location of the convention centre. Management will also seek to minimise income disruption from any AEI. While there are potential refinancing risks given a climbing gearing, management highlighted its ability to refinance even during the trough of the last crisis. It reiterated that there would be no equity fund-raising, given that any AEI would be completed in phases, allowing for the progressive drawdown of loans.

M-REITs
Investors were generally less familiar with the two Malaysian REITs and their assets and had the opportunity to learn more during the sessions. In contrast to S-REITs, Malaysian REITs appeared to be in a growth phase, with both REITs having added to their portfolios.

CMMT (Outperform, TP: RM1.35). Discussions revolved around its recent acquisition of Kuantan Mall. Though most had limited knowledge of the mall, they appeared convinced by the CEO that there would be positive rental reversions going forward. NPI yield was a healthy 7%. Management also saw tremendous room for asset enhancement, which was one of its main reasons for the purchase. Overall, investors appeared impressed with the group’s track record in managing retail malls and liked its focus on suburban necessity malls.

Sunway REIT (Not rated). Management shared its recent acquisition of Putra Place and clarified on the REIT’s ongoing litigation with the former owner of the asset. Management was excited about the purchase given its attractive pricing and capitalappreciation potential. On its ongoing litigation with the previous owner, management maintained its optimism on a resolution by 4Q11. Management was also confident on organic growth and hoped to achieve annual DPU growth of 5%. Particularly, it expected to benefit from the Economic Transformation Programme in Malaysia and population growth in the Bandar Sunway region. Other growth drivers include an acquisition pipeline from its sponsor and shopping-mall AEI.

Valuation and recommendation
Maintain Overweight. We continue to expect REITs to outperform in the current environment of risk aversion and low interest rates and with stronger balance sheets after the global financial crisis. Our top picks are AREIT, FCOT, Starhill and Cache. We also like CMT and CDLHT at current valuations.




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CIMB Research
Publish date:18/08/11

AirAsia-MAS share swap: who wins and who loses (CIMB)

Aviation
OVERWEIGHT Maintained
AirAsia-MAS share swap: who wins and who loses
• No change to calls after share swap. The share-swap agreement by the shareholders of the AirAsia and MAS has not changed our sector and stock calls. We continue to OVERWEIGHT the Malaysian aviation sector, with Outperforms on AirAsia and MAHB but an Underperform on MAS. AirAsia looks like the prime beneficiary from the deal. Although MAS is also expected to benefit, there is a long road ahead in terms of restructuring and the 2011 losses are expected to be fairly material, raising the possibility of a rights issue sometime down the road. The impact of the share swap on MAHB is neutral to slightly negative but MAHB has proven to the market that its interests are well protected by the restructuring agreement signed with the government in 2009 and it has been able to raise its charges more or less on schedule.

• Background. Khazanah will exchange a 20.5% stake in MAS for Tune Air’s 10% AirAsia stake, tying the two airlines together like never before. Both will exchange directors and collaborate in many of areas. The official mantra is for both airlines to benefit from cooperation rather than unrelenting competition. But the real rationale is to save MAS from ever-escalating losses by tapping into AirAsia’s expertise.

• The long road ahead for MAS. We believe that MAS will have to undergo massive restructuring in the form of right-sizing its network and labour pool because cooperation with AirAsia on various synergistic areas is unlikely to be sufficient to reverse MAS’s severe structural losses. The clearest example of success is Japan Airlines, which prior to 2010 was very similar to MAS but has decisively turned the corner and is expecting to record full-year profits this year. But execution of largescale cuts will require significant political will on the part of the government.

• AirAsia is the clearest winner. AirAsia can almost immediately benefit from the removal of Firefly as an LCC competitor while MAS’s downsizing may enable AirAsia/AirAsia X to take advantage of the resulting vacuum. Average domestic fares should logically rise. AirAsia can now rely on Khazanah as its new shareholder to help gain access to new landing rights. Some investors whom we spoke to expressed doubts as to whether AirAsia’s lunch is truly free. However, AirAsia is adamant that there is no catch to the share-swap deal.

• Neutral to slightly negative impact for MAHB. For MAHB, the impact of the share-swap agreement is likely to be neutral to slightly negative as it runs the risk of being called to national service if MAS fails to restructure successfully. A potentially contracting MAS and an expanding AirAsia could shift the mix of passengers to the LCCT, where airport tax is lower than the main terminal. Nevertheless, we are positive on the recent tariff increases secured by MAHB, which suggest that its restructuring agreement with the government is secure.

• Passengers, labour and suppliers are the key losers. Passenger fares are likely to rise in a more benign competitive environment while downsizing by MAS could result in some redundancies. Finally, the pursuit of cost synergies would mean less to go around for the airlines’ suppliers.

Background of share swap deal
Historic cooperation and collaboration in Malaysia. The aviation industry in Malaysia witnessed a never-before-seen event last week when the shareholders of AirAsia and MAS decided to swap their shares in the two companies, potentially eliminating or at least tempering the fierce rivalry between an incumbent legacy airline and an ambitious growing upstart. The implications of this collaboration are significant, affecting Malaysian taxpayers, airline passengers, suppliers, labour, the two airlines and also airports.

Before we delve into the multi-faceted consequences of the deal, here is a brief recap of the major highlights of the agreement that was unveiled on 9 August, with CIMB Investment Bank as the adviser to both airlines.

Share swap. Khazanah, which currently owns 69% of MAS, will give up a 20.5% stake in MAS in exchange for a 10% stake in AirAsia. Consequently, Tune Air’s shareholding in AirAsia will fall from 23% to 13%. Tune Air is the investment vehicle of the founders of AirAsia, namely Tony Fernandes who owns 48% of Tune Air, Kamarudin Meranun (39%) and Abdel Aziz (13%).

The share swap does not involve an exchange of cash. The share swap ratio is based on the airlines’ market capitalisations on Friday, 5 August when AirAsia was valued at RM11bn (share price of RM3.95) and MAS at RM5.3bn (share price of RM1.60). It is important to note that AirAsia and MAS do not own stakes in each other, i.e. the share swap is at the shareholder level. The share swap was completed on 12 August. Share moratorium. Khazanah will have to keep its shares in AirAsia and Tune Air its shares in MAS for a minimum period of 30 months. No disposal will be allowed during this 2½ -year period.

Free warrant issue. In order to ensure commonality of interest among the shareholders of MAS and AirAsia, free warrants in each other will be issued. Every 30 MAS shares will be entitled to one AirAsia share while every 10 AirAsia shares will be entitled to one MAS share.

These warrants are issued free but warrant holders will have to fork out RM2 to convert the MAS warrants and RM4.94 to convert the AirAsia warrants into shares of the respective airlines. The exercise prices are based on a 25% premium over the closing prices and the warrants have a tenure of 30 months. The completion of the warrant issue is estimated to be in November 2011 after relevant regulatory approvals and a shareholders’ EGM.

Full exercise will increase MAS’s share base by 8.2% and AirAsia’s share base by 4%. It can be the source of an additional RM550m funds for each airline.

Comprehensive collaboration framework (CCF) agreement. Under the CCF signed between MAS, AirAsia and AirAsia X, each airline will explore opportunities to cooperate on a broad range of areas including network and capacity deployment, group procurement of aircraft, fuel and other supplies, cooperation in terms of maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO), ground support services, cargo services, catering and training. Each airline remains separate legal entities and these areas of cooperation will need anti-trust approval in Malaysia and other international jurisdictions. The collaboration agreement took effect on 9 August 2011 and will be valid for a period of five years until 8 August 2016. It may be renewed for another fiveyear period. The overarching principle, according to the Bursa release, is that “each airline will benefit relative to its position prior hereto, and a party’s benefit shall not be at the expense or loss of any of the others”.

MAS to be FSC, AirAsia to be LCC. One of the key aspects of the CCF is to reposition MAS as the full-service carrier (FSC) and AirAsia as the low-cost carrier (LCC). Firefly’s LCC-type jet operations from KLIA will be closed down and Firefly will adopt a regional narrow-body FSC strategy, much in the same way as SilkAir is to SIA. Firefly may be renamed Sapphire. In this way, AirAsia will be the only LCC operating domestic flights. Firefly’s turboprop operations from Subang Airport are likely to continue unchanged. However, turboprop fares will continue to be more expensive than typical LCC fares.

AirAsia X may issue 10% new shares to Khazanah. Khazanah intends to take a 10% stake in AirAsia X at a future date and at an undetermined price. The stake is likely to be in the form of new shares as capital injection into the company. Management changes at MAS. Tengku Azmil, who took over from Idris Jala as MAS’s MD will leave ahead of his contract expiry and move back to Khazanah. A search for a new MD is underway. In the interim, Khazanah’s Mohd Rashdan Yusof will be appointed as a new executive director of MAS. AirAsia’s Tony Fernandes and Kamarudin Meranun will be appointed non-independent, non-executive directors of MAS. Independent, non-executive appointees to the board of directors include ex- Land & General’s Wan Azmi Wan Hamzah, Astro’s Rohana Rozhan, Shell’s David Lau Nai Pek, and IJM’s Krishnan Tan.

Management changes at AirAsia. There are no management changes at AirAsia, save the appointment of Khazanah’s Azman Yahya as non-independent, nonexecutive director and Mohd Rashdan Yusof as the alternate director.

Joint collaboration committee and advisory panel. The JCC will oversee the collaboration, undertake a review of anti-trust matters and resolve deadlocks. The JCC will be chaired by Azman Yahya, with Mohd Rashdan Yusof, Tony Fernandes and Kamarudin Meranun being among the other members. An advisory panel chaired by ex-prime minister Abdullah Badawi and including Pemandu’s Idris Jala, an MoT representative, as well as representatives of the states of Sabah and Sarawak, will be tasked with ensuring that AirAsia and MAS operate in the interests of the public and reflect the aspirations of all consumers.

A deal conceived to save MAS
Share-swap deal conceived to save MAS. The official mantra of the deal is for both airlines to benefit from cooperation rather than unrelenting competition. The real rationale, in our view, is to save MAS. AirAsia is doing fine on its own even though its yields have been hurt a little by extra competition on trunk East Malaysia routes from the LCC-type flights launched this year by Firefly. AirAsia enjoyed 12% core net profit margin in 1Q11, which was the best in our airline coverage.

However, MAS is in a bad shape and we expect it to show more than RM1bn core net loss this year, continuing a multi-year trend. It reported a core operating loss of RM1.3bn forn 2005, followed by a loss of RM352m in 2006, and basked in profitability in the next two years, i.e. profits of RM871m in 2007 and RM140m in 2008 as it rode the global wave of strong demand and constrained global capacity, and benefited from low-hanging fruits arising from the initial reforms instituted by Idris Jala.

Unfortunately, the global financial crisis (GFC) plunged MAS back into a massive loss of RM2.3bn in 2009. It continued to be loss-making to the tune of RM755m in 2010 even as other global airlines recovered from the GFC. In 2011, we expect the core net loss to widen to more than RM1bn as fuel prices have surged and MAS’s yields are starting to drop again in an environment of global overcapacity, competition from Middle East carriers, and aggressive LCC expansion

Khazanah may have been at its wits end. Khazanah appears to have swapped its MAS shares for AirAsia shares from a position of weakness. A year before this deal, MAS’s market cap was RM7.1bn against RM3.4bn for AirAsia but on 9 August, MAS’s market cap was down 25% to RM5.3bn while AirAsia’s market cap more than tripled to RM11bn. MAS’s share price took an especially hard beating after it announced larger-than-expected 1Q11 losses while AirAsia instead announced a stronger 1Q. Subsequent to the 1Q results, AirAsia also announced its world-beating 200-strong A320neo order and the tie-up with ANA to set up AirAsia Japan.

Given the dwindling hope for resuscitation and the possibility of a third rights issue down the road to plug the ever-expanding losses, Khazanah may have agreed to swap its shares in MAS in exchange for the benefits that may arise from having Tony and Kamarudin on MAS’s side. We understand that this share-swap deal had been bandied about for several years before Tune Air finally agreed, probably because after the exceptional performance of AirAsia’s share price, Tune Air was negotiating from a position of strength.

How can MAS benefit? MAS needs significant restructuring to survive as a going concern without endless government cash infusions. In addition to bringing new management experience through the likes of Tony and Kamarudin, MAS is banking on driving synergies with the AirAsia group on various aspects of cost and revenue. In the official public releases, both airlines indicated the following areas for possible cooperation.

1. Volume discounts from joint procurement. Subject to clearing anti-trust regulations, AirAsia and MAS will explore joint procurement of aircraft, spare parts, engines, IT systems and consumables such as fuel. We suspect that both airlines might even use their combined heft to try and negotiate landing/parking discounts from airports and also consolidate their ground handling contracts at various international airports.

2. MRO spending to be kept within Malaysia. AirAsia currently does not use MAS’s Malaysian Aerospace Engineering (MAE) for its MRO requirements, using instead Singapore’s ST Aerospace. If AirAsia uses MAE for its MRO needs, the wholly-owned MAS unit will be kept very busy, especially with the aggressive expansion of AirAsia and AirAsia X.

3. Ground handling synergies. At present, both AirAsia and MAS are doing their own ground handling at KLIA/LCCT and other Malaysian airports. In the future, the operations may be merged for cost savings.

4. Training synergies. Both MAS and AirAsia have their own flying schools, which may be merged for mutual benefit. AirAsia and MAS both have A330 simulators and future duplication can be avoided.

5. Catering synergies. MAS owns 30% of its catering associate, LSG Sky Chefs- Bramin’s, but AirAsia uses another catering supplier. AirAsia may explore using LSG Sky Chefs instead.

6. Cargo synergies. AirAsia’s cargo business is relatively small and it may be better to allow MAS to manage it for them. Also both carriers can provide cargo synergies in terms of code-sharing on selected routes.

RM1.2bn savings annually. An Bain & Co study done some time back indicated that the above and other initiatives could save as much as RM1.2bn on an annual recurring basis for both airlines, with more benefits accruing to MAS because of its substantial cost inefficiencies relative to a lean AirAsia.

MAS: too little, too late?
Synergies look difficult to execute; does not get to the heart of the problem. We believe that the cost synergies and the various collaborations may help MAS at the margin but will fall significantly short of what MAS really needs to do to become profitable on a sustainable basis.

We are sceptical that joint procurement will yield significant benefits in the near term. MAS has already ordered a significant number of replacement aircraft including 35 B737-800s with 20 options, and 15 A330-300s with 10 options. In addition, MAS has taken over from its parent company, Penerbangan Malaysia Bhd, deliveries for six A380s. If the share swap had come prior to these aircraft orders, AirAsia’s leverage over Airbus might have helped MAS more.

Future aircraft orders may include the A350XWB or the B787 Dreamliners as replacements for their existing B777s. But we believe that MAS is unlikely to place these orders soon given the turmoil of management change and other more pressing survival-type restructuring. Also, AirAsia’s influence is limited to Airbus as it has not ordered a single plane from Boeing.

Joint procurement of spare parts or engines will help to a certain extent but we are unclear how significant the savings will be given that there is not a lot of common ground between AirAsia’s and MAS’s fleets. In the narrow-body segment, MAS operates B737s while AirAsia owns A320s. AirAsia does not own any wide-bodies while AirAsia X operates just a clutch of nine A330s and two A340s. Although MAS also operates A330s, it does not use A340s. MAS also owns/operates B777 and B747 airplanes in which the AirAsia group has no interest.

Joint procurement of fuel and other consumables does not appear to be very common across the airline industry, which could be because it may be difficult and timeconsuming to get anti-trust clearance from the numerous national regulators. It may take AirAsia and MAS months or even years to secure regulatory approval for joint procurement. The complexity of getting through regulators in some jurisdictions should not be underestimated.

Perhaps an easier cow to milk is the domestic supply of jet fuel as MAS and AirAsia may be able to secure volume discounts from either Petronas Dagangan or Shell if jet fuel purchases are consolidated with one or the other supplier. However, Malaysia will have an anti-competition law in January 2012 and it would be interesting to see how this develops. Also, we are unclear if either Petronas Dagangan or Shell has the capacity to supply the combined jet fuel requirements of MAS and AirAsia. Both airlines could pressure airports to lower their landing, take-off and parking charges. However, MAHB’s interests are also looked after by Khazanah. Growth incentives may be extended by MAHB to both AirAsia and MAS but airport incentives have been around for a while and are not new.

As for the passing of AirAsia’s MRO business to MAS, this will take some time as MAE does not have experience in maintaining A320s. This aircraft model has never been in the MAS fleet. This means that the transfer of A320 maintenance to MAE is a medium- to longer-term project.

Ground handling synergies may be difficult to extract as well since both airlines are operating from different terminals – MAS at the main terminal building and AirAsia at the LCCT or the future KLIA2.

Training synergies are minor, in our opinion, also because of the lack of commonality between the MAS and AirAsia group fleets. Catering is one area where AirAsia’s change in supplier might help improve the utilisation of LSG Sky Chefs but catering is not an especially large cost item and the value of AirAsia’s food offerings are low. It would be interesting to see how cargo synergies work but AirAsia’s A320s are not particularly suitable for bulkier cargo types as the bellyhold is very small and narrow.

Many cargoes that are carried on MAS’s dedicated B747 freighters and wide-body passenger planes will not fit into the narrow-body A320. To round up, we believe that operating synergies will help MAS but coordination with AirAsia, supplier negotiations and obtaining anti-trust clearance could take a significant amount of time. Our fear is that these savings will not materialise quickly enough to help MAS immediately in its urgent time of need. We also think that MAS will have to undergo a more massive restructuring exercise to right-size its network and costs.

Taking the cue from Japan Airlines
JAL is the best example of what MAS can become. We believe that MAS needs significant cuts to its network to emerge into sustainable profitability. We think that Japan Airlines (JAL) provides the best example of how a sick patient can be finally resuscitated into a healthy individual but only if there is the political will and courage to execute the tough plans.

JAL’s financial performance prior to bankruptcy has been volatile – not dissimilar to MAS. JAL incurred its largest-ever operating loss of ¥160bn in 2009 as a result of the global yield and demand collapse following the GFC. However, after substantial restructuring, it managed to earn ¥188bn operating profit in 2010. For 2011, JAL is officially guiding for ¥75.7bn operating profit. In the April-June 2011 quarter, it earned ¥12.8bn operating profit despite the reduction in demand arising from the 11 March earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis. We consider this to be a very creditable performance. The most important point is that JAL is still expecting to be profitable in 2011 despite high oil prices and weakening yields in an environment of global oversupply.

Background. The legacy JAL was operating an old fleet of 258 aircraft, mainly widebodies covering 109 domestic and 65 international destinations. Operating costs were bloated and JAL plied many loss-making routes. By the end of 2009, it was saddled with huge debts of ¥800bn (US$8.6bn) excluding ¥100bn (US$1.1bn) pension liabilities, and could not meet its financial obligations. JAL filed for bankruptcy back in January 2010 and was subsequently delisted from the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It finally succumbed to its inefficient operations and high debt. When the government declined to bail it out again, JAL was forced to undergo a major restructuring – something that could not have been contemplated before the GFC.

How JAL restructured. Over the last 1½ years, JAL became a smaller, leaner airline, shed several long-haul routes, and became more reliant on Asian routes and its global partners. It cut its workforce by 16,000 or 33%, all within a year. This included 6,400 staff in companies that JAL had spun off, as well as 3,000 staff through an early retirement programme. Cockpit crew (pilots) were reduced by 13%, flight attendants by 14%, headquarters staff by 36% and MRO operations by 16%. Stipends and allowances were reduced and the pay gap between junior and senior staff was narrowed. A more performance-based remuneration scheme was introduced in its place. There were new executive appointments and various reorganisations such as the classification of departments as either a profit-generating unit or a business support unit. This facilitated performance-based compensation.

JAL also grounded 103 planes or 40% of its fleet, retiring inefficient models including all its B747s which had been used for nearly 40 years. The airline restructured its operations to focus on smaller aircraft such as the B767s and the B787s currently on order. Dedicated freighters were taken out of service and the cargo business focused on using passenger bellyhold capacity.

JAL eliminated 36% of its domestic routes and 15% of its international routes, focusing on profitable destinations, and aggressively increased cooperation with partners in the oneworld alliance including a venture with American Airlines that commenced in April 2011. This venture is expected to yield US$156m in combined annual incremental benefits for both airlines and the benefits are expected to rise exponentially. JAL also established numerous codeshare services with other airlines in the past year.

Other cost reductions were achieved through reform of airport cost structures, facilities and review of wages and the pension system. JAL updated its IT infrastructure to boost the carrier’s efficiency and productivity. It also adopted a new corporate policy and change its logo effective April 2011 to symbolise a fresh start for the airline group, as soon as it emerged from bankruptcy.

JAL has also sold or liquidated subsidiaries to concentrate on the airline operations. Among subsidiaries that have been or will be divested are the hotel operations, JAL Sky (Narita-based flight operations subsidiary), JAL Ground Service and TFK Corp (catering services), Japan TransOcean Air (Naha-based airline).

Challenges faced by JAL. JAL experienced numerous strikes or threats to strike by unions due to the massive layoffs. Employees had to take a 5% pay cut and forfeit their 2009 and 2010 bonuses. Currently, JAL is facing several lawsuits and claims from its employees and unions. The transition of the corporate culture to a performance-based system has not been easy and the carrier expects more than ¥1tr (US$13bn) in restructuring costs from staff reductions and early retirement schemes, including the cost of fleet renewal. While JAL has settled ¥400bn (US$5.2bn) in reorganisation claims, the airline had to raise another ¥255bn (US$3.3bn) from financial institutions in addition to the ¥350bn (US$4.5bn) injected by state-affiliated Enterprise Turnaround Initiation Corp.

The unveiling. JAL was removed from bankruptcy protection in March 2011 and is targeting to be relisted in 2013. In the April-June 2011 quarter, JAL earned ¥12.8bn operating profit despite a drop in demand arising from the 11 March earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis. JAL is also expecting to be profitable in 2011, to the tune of ¥75.7bn operating profit.

What MAS needs to do
There is hope for MAS. We believe that MAS can do a JAL and succeed. However, it will be a long and painful journey and many sacrifices will need to be made. With Tony and Kamarudin as members of the board of directors, there is hope, but getting the employees and staff of MAS on their side could be a major challenge, as the JAL example has shown. This is what we believe MAS needs to do in order to succeed in its turnaround.

Reduce staff numbers. MAS’s staff productivity is the lowest among the airlines that we cover and its 20,000 strong staff force may need to be cut. MAS deploys only 2.48m ASK for every employee against SIA’s 7.95m and Cathay’s 5.36m in 2010. MAS compares unfavourably to even Thai Airways at 2.92m ASK/staff. MAS’s low staff productivity may be slightly understated because MAS has more short haul flights in comparison. In terms of revenue per staff, MAS is again the lowest at US$201,000/staff, even lower than second-lowest Thai Airways at US$220,000 and significantly below other FSCs like SIA and Cathay. Assuming that MAS wants to raise its ASK/staff productivity to half the level of SIA, it may have to cut its staff numbers by 38% based on the current schedule. If the network is reduced in the future, even more cuts will be necessary.

Shrink the network. Apart from staff costs, MAS is also inefficient in other areas. The unit fuel cost is the highest among the stocks we cover, at 19.12 US cts/ATK, partly due to the short-haul domestic network for which unit costs are generally higher than longer-haul routes, but also because of its aged fleet and inefficient fuel consumption economics. The old fleet also increases the costs of maintenance.

Although the fleet renewal process has already begun, it is not moving fast enough to prevent deep losses on many routes under a high oil price environment. Costs can also be reduced by exploring synergies with AirAsia but we believe synergies by themselves will not be enough to plug MAS’s losses. As a result, we believe MAS will have to be more aggressive in shrinking the network, both internationally and domestically.

To raise yields, MAS needs to cut surplus capacity. The basic principle of economics is that the demand curve is downward sloping. If MAS wants its yields to rise, which has been the goal for years, it will have to cut supply, especially since the Malaysian aviation market is moving decisively towards LCC dominance and away from FSCs. Even though MAS cut international and domestic capacity in 2006-08/09 under Idris Jala’s tenure as MD, 40% of these cuts were reinstated between 2008/09 and 1H11 to MAS’s detriment. In our opinion, MAS will have to reverse the capacity expansion of the past 2-3 years in order to emerge more profitable.

The following charts on MAS’s international and domestic businesses show the interplay between ASK capacity, load factors and yields. The international ASK capacity was increased aggressively in 1H11, and if annualised, MAS would have grown its 2011 international capacity by a staggering 11.3% yoy. This follows four consecutive years of ASK cuts, which cumulatively reduced capacity by 28% from 2005-09. And although PLF was kept high at 77%, MAS simply had too many seats on hand and this caused yield to fall 4% yoy in 1Q11. MAS will have to cut international capacity if it wants to raise yields while keeping load factors high.

On the domestic front, MAS will also need to cut capacity and reverse the ASK growth from 2009 onwards. Domestic yields are barely above 2009 levels despite sharply higher oil prices and the 1H11 load factor has collapsed to lowest-ever levels. One of the reasons for the lower load in the first six months of 2011 is the growth of Firefly’s LCC business from KLIA, which has eaten into the market share of both MAS domestic and AirAsia. Figure 7 data refer only to the parent company’s domestic business and exclude Firefly. Even though Firefly will be shutting down its domestic LCC business and morphing into a regional FSC, we believe that the parent company’s domestic network will have to be downsized in order to raise yields and profitability.

Other initiatives already underway will need to be executed. We understand that MAS will be implementing its new revenue management system by the end of this year. This should help improve seat inventory allocation between various sales offices and, therefore, raise yields. The fleet renewal plan is also underway and should be kept on track so that costs like fuel consumption and maintenance can be reduced. The initiative to join an alliance, namely the oneworld alliance, should also be accelerated so that MAS can gain synergies from cross-selling and expand its international reach.

Challenges facing MAS. MAS is without a MD at its most critical moment and it is unclear how long the search for a new MD will take. It may be difficult for the airline to execute its plans decisively or inspire/motivate employees without clear leadership. Wide-ranging capacity and staff cuts will require significant political will on the part of the government even with general elections due in two years. Staff morale may decline with the latest shareholding and leadership changes affecting MAS and the uncertainties over the new strategic decisions that new management might take in the future. The implementation of a performance-based culture may also be difficult as old habits die hard. The decision to join the oneworld alliance is now being reviewed and delays could hold back MAS from benefiting from alliance membership faster. MAS’s shareholders may have to prepare for a possible rights issue as surplus funds are being depleted by the airline’s operating losses and also capex requirements.

How will AirAsia benefit?
Domestic sector will see reduced competition and potentially higher fares. Although the share-swap deal was conceptualised as a way to rescue MAS operationally, the clearest near-term benefits will accrue to AirAsia. Tune Air negotiated from a position of strength, and its greatest irritant – namely Firefly’s LCC operations – was effectively asked to leave the building.

Firefly currently operates just six B737-800s and two B737-400s, but on some of the west to east Malaysia routes, Firefly has become quite a force to be reckoned with, with the resulting overcapacity depressing AirAsia yields and profits on those routes. For example, on the KL-Kuching route, Firefly accounts for 29% of the seat capacity for the four weeks from 15 August to 11 September. Firefly accounts for 24% of the capacity on the KL-KK route, 51% on KL-Sandakan and 43% on KL-Sibu. As the crossings over the South China Sea are the most profitable domestic routes for any airline in Malaysia, Firefly has launched a full-frontal attack on AirAsia’s jugular.

Firefly’s eventual departure as an LCC and redesignation as a domestic/regional FSC will effectively leave AirAsia as the solo LCC in Malaysia. This is especially important, considering that Firefly had plans to expand its LCC business to 30 B737-800 planes in five years, representing some 40% of AirAsia Bhd’s expected fleet size by 2015. In essence, the Firefly threat will no longer be an issue.

MAS may need to raise fares too. Meanwhile, even the parent MAS’s domestic capacity was being deployed at fairly low fares, in our opinion. We compared AirAsia and MAS fares to Kota Kinabalu for departure three months from today and discovered that the fare gap was not particularly large. In percentage terms, the fare difference can range from 21% to 45%, but in absolute terms, the difference can be as low as RM23 for KLIA-Penang and between RM53-63 for KLIA-KK/Kuching assuming that passengers do not opt for AirAsia’s comfort kit.

Between 2009 and 1H11, MAS redeployed 40% of the domestic capacity that had been culled during the tenure of ex-MD Idris Jala, to AirAsia’s chagrin. We believe that MAS can and should set its domestic fares even higher than it does now since its unit costs are probably 40-50% higher than AirAsia’s. But capacity and cost reductions need to be implemented hand-in-hand with fare increases in order to keep load factors high. We believe that Tony Fernandes and Kamarudin Meranun will bring their influence to bear in this respect.

Average domestic fares will likely rise. The end of Firefly’s LCC operations and the potential reduction in MAS’s domestic capacity make it highly possible that average fares in the domestic sector will rise. The major beneficiary will be AirAsia. MAS will benefit as well but the road ahead is harder for MAS as it also needs to manage down its cost base.

Enhanced access to regional routes. In the regional short-haul sector, AirAsia is expected to get approval to fly to Manila, whereas at the moment it only has government approval to land at the Clark Air Base. Indonesian access, which has been constrained by the restrictive bilateral air services agreement between Malaysia and Indonesia, will be opened up for AirAsia. AirAsia is also expecting access to India and China to improve.

Long-haul access to also improve. Other entities in the AirAsia group will also see benefits. AirAsia X is expected to get approval for the Sydney route soon, setting aside previous objections from MAS. The process to obtain future route approvals are expected to be smoother, with Khazanah now a shareholder of AirAsia and a future shareholder of AirAsia X. As AirAsia X expands its footprint, we expect the short-haul operations of AirAsia to also benefit, as a significant proportion of Australians flying into the LCCT from Melbourne, Perth and Gold Coast also continue on to other Malaysian or Asean destinations via AirAsia.

MAS may shrink its international network. As with the domestic routes, MAS may also restructure its regional short-haul and international long-haul route network with a view to reducing their size and cutting losses. This environment could be very supportive for AirAsia and AirAsia X’s future growth.

Other intangible benefits. From a more intangible angle, management time previously spent lobbying for route access can in the future be available for more productive pursuits, like expanding the business. Tony Fernandes has assured investors that his time will be spent mainly with AirAsia, despite his new role as a nonexecutive director with MAS.

What’s the catch? Some investors whom we spoke to expressed doubts as to whether AirAsia’s lunch is truly free. If AirAsia is gaining so much from the share-swap deal, it must somehow be compelled to give back something to MAS. What future sacrifices must AirAsia make in the future in the name of cooperation with MAS? Will AirAsia be required to give up some frequencies in order to help MAS improve its load factors and yields? AirAsia is adamant that there will be none of this. Only time will tell. Our base case is that AirAsia will see net benefits flowing to the airline, even if some unknown future sacrifices have to be made.

Impact on MAHB is unclear
Neutral to slightly negative impact for MAHB. The impact on MAHB from the share-swap agreement is likely to be neutral to slightly negative. MAHB is an external party to the share swap and will not share its benefits. With Khazanah prioritising the revival of MAS, MAHB may in the future be asked to do national service in terms of deferring the hikes of its aeronautical charges. However, this is not our base-case scenario, as MAHB looks rather well protected by the restructuring agreement it signed with the government in 2009. This agreement guarantees an inflation-linked hike in passenger service charges every five years, failing which it will be compensated by the government. MAHB is also entitled to raise its landing and parking charges to at least the lowest level charged by any one of four regional airports, namely Singapore, Hong Kong, Jakarta and Bangkok.

We are aware that MAHB recently obtained government approval to raise its landing fees by 30% and its parking charges by 64% over the three-year period of 2012-14 and also the approval to raise the PSC borne by the travelling public from RM51 to RM65 (+RM14) for international departing passengers from KLIA, and from RM25 to RM32 (+RM7) for international departing passengers from LCCT. Coming so soon after the share-swap agreement between the shareholders of AirAsia and MAS, this indicates that MAHB is able to hold its own and defend its interests against the airline lobby, particularly from AirAsia.

Structural shift of passenger mix between main terminal and LCCT? Given that MAS is likely to rationalise and reduce its fleet and routes, starting with the termination of Firefly’s LCC business, MAHB’s future passenger volume growth could be affected. As AirAsia expands into the vacuum left by MAS, there will be a shift of passengers from KLIA to the LCCT. This will be negative for MAHB as PSC charges at the LCCT are 50% lower for international passenger and 33% lower for domestic passengers. Apart from that, Tony Fernandes is also keen on new LCCTs in Penang and Kuching which will amplify the shift.

This, however, may be offset by higher passenger volumes and also higher retail spending at the LCCTs. This is because passengers travelling on AirAsia are usually leisure customers or tourists on holiday and the feel-good factor will usually entice them to spend more. Currently, retail spending at LCCT is approximately 20% higher than at KLIA.

Extra capex on additional LCCTs could burden the balance sheet. During a recent analyst briefing, AirAsia CEO Tony Fernandes mentioned that he wanted to see more LCCTs built around Malaysia. There is a greater likelihood of this happening after the share swap. This might not be positive in the short- to medium-term but could be longer-term positive for MAHB as we see further drains on its cash flow which is already tight given the ongoing construction of the KLIA2.

On the other hand, there is a clause which states that if MAHB does not agree to incur the capex but is compelled to do “national service”, the government will compensate MAHB for the losses incurred in running an uneconomic airport. Should MAHB choose not to spend the capex to build the airports, the Malaysian government would do so but MAHB’s revenue share would increase by 0.0375% for every RM100m spent over the next eight years, on top of the 8.8% MAHB is paying currently which increases 0.25% annually.

Not enough to shake our OUTPERFORM call. The potentially small negative impact of the share-swap deal on MAHB is not enough to change our Outperform call on MAHB. The airport appears to be well protected by its restructuring agreement with the government and we believe the government will honour its obligations in the years to come. Even if MAS downsizes, we expect the growth of the AirAsia group to more than compensate for the reduction.

So who are the losers?
Passengers, labour and suppliers are the key losers. The aviation economic ecosystem can be summarised in the formula below, where the sum total of AirAsia’s profits, MAS profits and MAHB profits are financed by the sum total of passenger fares and government subsidies, minus supplier profits and labour costs (add labour productivity).

In the post-share swap environment of more benign competition, the profits of AirAsia and MAS could theoretically increase due to rising passenger fares as capacity is culled and supply is constricted. They may also rise because AirAsia and MAS team up to see joint procurement discounts at the expense of their suppliers. If MAS shrinks its network and cost base, labour costs are expected to fall (or labour productivity rise), directly contributing to the airline’s profits. As an aside, MAHB’s profits are funded by airport taxes charged to passengers, charges levied against the airlines, or by virtue of government subsidies.

Hence, rising aviation sector profits in the new cooperative environment are likely to be funded by passengers, suppliers and labour – these are the three key losers of the share-swap deal.

What if MAS does not succeed in its restructuring efforts? If MAS does not execute its restructuring plans well, labour costs and suppliers’ costs could remain elevated while passenger fares remain lower than expected. Eventually, MAS will have to seek another round of capital injection from the government, which will be borne by Malaysian taxpayers.

Could AirAsia and MAHB lose out? Another way to balance the equation in the event of rising MAS losses is to vary the values assigned to the left-hand side of the equation only and keep the values for the right-hand side unchanged. In other words, if MAS does not succeed in its restructuring efforts, it can seek concessions from AirAsia and MAHB, by asking either or both parties to sacrifice some of its future profits to make it easier for MAS to turn around its losses. While this is possible, we think this scenario will be fairly unlikely based on the assurances of both AirAsia and MAHB.

Valuation and recommendation
Maintain OVERWEIGHT on Malaysian aviation sector. We are OVERWEIGHT on the Malaysian aviation sector, with Outperforms on AirAsia and MAHB, but an Underperform on MAS. Our stock calls have not changed with the share-swap agreement as we think AirAsia will benefit from the deal. While MAS is also expected to benefit, there is a long road ahead in terms of restructuring and the 2011 losses are expected to be fairly material, raising the possibility of a rights issue sometime down the road. For MAHB, the impact of the share swap is neutral to slightly negative but MAHB has proven to the market that its interests are well protected by the restructuring agreement signed with the government in 2009 and it has been able to raise its charges more or less on schedule.

Maintain Outperform on AirAsia. We strongly believe that the post share-swap environment will turn more benign for AirAsia, in both the domestic, regional shorthaul and international long-haul sectors. Firefly’s LCC business will be canned and we believe that MAS will have to undertake a massive scale-back of its domestic and international operations. This will be positive for the yield environment and will give AirAsia and AirAsia X more growth opportunities. We reiterate our Outperform rating and target price of RM4.70, still based on 10x core P/E. We lower our 2011 core EPS forecast by 9% as the 2Q results could be affected by high oil prices, keep 2012 relatively unchanged and raise 2013 by 6% on the back of the benefits from the share swap.

Potential catalysts include the successful Thai and Indonesian associate listings and the early start-up of AirAsia Japan. The higher landing and parking charges in 2012-14 are not expected to affect AirAsia materially as its profitability remains strong and it is also negotiating for a continuation of the airline incentive scheme.

AirAsia will be releasing its 2Q results on 23 August. We expect a core net profit of RM115m for the Malaysian operations, down 30% from RM165m last year, and down 7% from RM124m in the 1Q, hurt by higher fuel prices. Tiger Singapore reported 44% lower EBIT in 2Q, while SIA and Thai Airways reported losses. In this context, AirAsia’s 2Q is relatively strong.

AirAsia Japan is expected to begin operations in March 2012, instead of September as announced earlier, and ahead of the Jetstar-JAL LCC by perhaps half a year. We are positive on this JV as Japan is a huge untapped market. According to media reports and CAPA, AirAsia Japan will have costs which are less than half of its fullservice parent but more than double those of AirAsia's Malaysian operations, at around ¥6 (7.77 UScts) per ASK. The operating costs will be impacted by higher personnel costs and landing fees in Japan. They will, however, be lower than other operators in the market, including Skymark Airlines. The JV aims to offer fares which are one third to one quarter of what existing international carriers charge and expects aircraft to operate with load factors of more than 80%.

Maintain Outperform on MAHB. The hike in the PSC, landing and parking charges is a very positive development that triggers FY12-13 EPS upgrades of 5.5-7.9% for airport operator MAHB as well as a rise in our DCF-derived target price from RM7.70 to RM8.00. We do not expect the higher charges to deter passengers from travelling or airlines from flying in and out of the airports. We believe that MAHB will piggy-back on AirAsia’s strong growth trajectory and is a play on tourism without the excess baggage of oil price volatility. Potential re-rating catalysts include (1) more increases in charges, (2) stronger-than-expected passenger growth, (3) airline expansion, (4) industry liberalisation, and (5) announcements on land development JVs. While the RM14 increase in PSC at international airports other than LCCTs will not directly affect MAHB’s earnings, the RM7 PSC hike at the LCCTs will accrue directly to MAHB’s bottomline. The 30% rise in landing fees and 64% increase in parking charges over three years will also beef up MAHB’s earnings.

The collaboration between MAS and AirAsia should not have a drastic negative impact on MAHB. Although MAS is likely to rationalise its fleet and turn Firefly into a FSC which will reduce passenger traffic at KLIA, stronger growth and higher retail spending at the LCCTs should offset this decline.

Maintain Underperform on MAS. We continue to be negative on MAS despite the renewed resuscitation efforts via the injection of new shareholders and the promise of cooperation with AirAsia. Although we are not discounting the potential for success, minority shareholders should not underestimate the difficulties ahead. Investors should also be prepared to face large 2011 losses and the potential for a future rights issue that could lead to a share price de-rating. We have substantially raised our core net loss forecast from RM560m to RM1.3bn for 2011, estimate a core loss of RM582m for 2012 instead of a small profit and slash core profit by 55% for 2013 as our old forecasts were too optimistic. However, we raise our target price to RM1.60 (2.75x P/BV, 1 s.d. above 10-year mean) from RM1.30 (mean of 2x P/BV), because of the hope engendered by the deal.

MAS will be releasing its 2Q results on 24 August. We expect a core net loss of RM600m, against RM535m loss last year and RM242m loss in 1Q. Higher fuel prices and weak yield management will hit performance. Separately, we estimate that MAS’s cash pile may reduce to just 7% of its 2009 balance by the end of 2012. A rights issue may be necessary next year. A 1-for-3 issue at RM1.40 apiece could raise RM1.5bn in additional funds.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CIMB Research
Publish date:18/08/11
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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