Wednesday, July 27, 2011

2011-0725-57金錢爆(I want you....r money!! 借我錢)



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date:25/07/11

Genting Singapore (CIMB)

Genting Singapore Plc
Genting Singapore (GENS SP; S$1.91; OUTPERFORM; TP S$2.79)
• What happened: Las Vegas Sands (LVS) held a conference call on its 2QFY11 results, shedding light on the performance of its Singapore property, Marina Bay Sands (MBS). MBS’s 2Q result was outstanding, to say the least. It reported adjusted EBITDA of US$405m (S$487m) in 1Q, which was an increase of 43% qoq in 2Q10 and more than tripled the US$95m (S$114m) during the same period last year. Operational improvements were seen across the board.

• What we think: The duopoly gaming market in Singapore suggests that MBS’s gains could have come at the expense of RWS. However, contrary to many, it was stated that the Singapore market is far from saturation. With only a little more than a year in operations, we tend to agree that it may be too early to conclude that the Singapore gaming market has peaked. If this is the case, we may see a quarterly blip in 2Q due to the rapid expansion of MBS, but the mid-to long-term growth story for GENS is still very much intact. We are projecting EBITDA of approximately S$330m for GENS in 2Q, which is pretty much in line with consensus expectations. This implies a 38% qoq decline sequentially.

• What you should do: Look beyond 2Q’s short-term blip. RWS’s 2Q could be soft on 1) seasonal factors and 2) normalised luck at the VIP segment. MBS’s stellar 2Q performance also suggests an element of cannibalisation. But the 20% share price fall from the high of S$2.24 in April to the current S$1.81 may be an indication that the market has already factored these negatives in. Valuations look attractive at this level, i.e. 11.9x EV/EBITDA (FY11) and 10.2x EV/EBITDA (FY12). Pending review, maintain OUTPERFORM on the stock with an unchanged TP of $2.79. We see the stock as a good proxy to Singapore’s growing tourism industry. It is also the only listed gaming entity with direct and pure exposure to the lucrative Singapore gaming market.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CIMB Research
Publish date:27/07/11

Genting Singapore: Looking beyond 2Q (CIMB)

Genting Singapore Plc
OUTPERFORM Maintained
S$1.81 @26/07/11
Target: S$2.79

Looking beyond 2Q

• Looking beyond 2Q. Going by MBS’s results, we believe RWS’s 2Q11 could be soft on seasonality and normalised luck in the VIP segment. MBS’s stellar performance could also indicate some cannibalisation in the duopoly Singapore gaming market. Nevertheless, we suggest investors look beyond Genting Singapore’s possible shortterm blips and capitalise on its longer-term prospects. Its 20% drop in share price from a high of S$2.24 may indicate that the market has factored in the negatives. We maintain our target price of S$2.79, based on 16x CY12 EV/EBITDA. We anticipate catalysts from: 1) better-than-expected 2Q11 results; 2) the licensing of junket operations; and 3) sustained leadership in Singapore.

• Long-term growth of Singapore market intact. We believe it could be too early to conclude that the Singapore casino market is past its rapid growth phase. We believe its long-term growth is intact and continue to conservatively project 44% yoy growth in GGR from the two IRs to reach S$7bn this year.

• Convergence in GGR market shares expected. With MBS gathering momentum in both the VIP and mass markets, we would not be entirely surprised if MBS’s recent market-share gains had come at the expense of RWS. That said, RWS should be able to cushion its diminishing dominance by: 1) rolling out more promotions and marketing initiatives; and 2) launching more non-gaming amenities. The approval of junkets should be its next catalyst to gain further traction in the VIP business.

No longer a darling in Singapore?
Genting Singapore’s share price has been on a downtrend since the release of its 1Q11 results, which were taken to be slightly disappointing, particularly in the VIP business. Concerns have been looming over whether: 1) the Singapore gaming market has passed its rapid growth phase; 2) Resorts World Sentosa’s (RWS) market share has been eroded by Marina Bay Sands (MBS); and 3) junket approval is still on the Casino Regulatory Authority’s (CRA) blueprint. With Genting Singapore expected to announce 2Q11 results in mid-August, we take cues from our recent discussions with management and MBS’s released 2Q11 operational performance to gauge the outlook for the Singapore gaming market and earnings prospects of the company.

Outlook
Is Macau driving up expectations? In stark contrast to the Macau casino sector which has been booming and exceeding expectations, investors are becoming increasingly sceptical on the growth outlook for the Singapore gaming industry. After only 1.5 years of operation (from the inception of RWS), the novelty effect of the integrated resorts (IRs) is thought to be fading away. To a certain extent, we think the market, overwhelmed by the rosy picture in Macau and operators’ stellar results in the first few quarters, could have built in over-bullish expectations.

Singapore is no Macau. From the very first day, we knew that the Singapore government did not liberalise casino gaming to turn the island-state into another Macau. With the absence of: 1) junkets’ efforts to bring in high rollers; 2) Macau casinos’ immense customer base in mainland China to expand the mass-market segment; and 3) the supply-driven model of the Macau gaming sector, it was undoubtedly difficult for the two IRs to repeat the feat of the Macau casinos in the past two years. Having said that, it is perhaps too early to conclude that the Singapore casino market has marched past its rapid growth phase, solely going by the first and second quarters of this year.

Long-term growth intact. We figure that the operators, after leveraging the novelty effect to minimise their marketing initiatives, are now banking on more promotions and marketing activities to regain traction with casino patrons. Despite the short-term softness, the long-term growth potential of the Singapore gaming sector is still intact. We make no changes to our sector forecasts, still conservatively projecting 44% yoy growth in overall gross gaming revenue (GGR) from the two IRs to reach S$7bn this year. Beyond 2011, we believe a more sustainable 18% yoy expansion rate is achievable over the next two years.

New chief at CRA: speed-up or slow-down of junket approval? In early June, the CRA appointed Mr Lau Peet Meng as its new Chief Executive, replacing Mr T. Raja Kumar who has returned to the Singapore Police Force. Some industry observers turned even more pessimistic on the progress of junket approval, which is already taking longer than expected. We differ. While we acknowledge that the transition could take some time, we figure that a change of mind at the office might offer new perspectives and speed up the process. Furthermore, the proliferation of illegal junket activities in the casinos could act as catalysts in legalising the operations. We also take comfort in the fact that the CRA has not outright banned junket operations in Singapore. As the timeline of approval is everyone’s best guess at this juncture amid poor visibility, our earnings estimates for Genting Singapore have yet to fully reflect the true potential of junket operations.

Junket approval would benefit RWS entirely; still focused on VIP business. To the best of our knowledge, the CRA is reviewing some 20 applications from junket operators, all supported by RWS. We believe that approval is a matter of time and once granted, should fully benefit RWS as MBS would miss out on this segment, at least in the initial stage. Genting Singapore continues to see high rollers as its major growth source and is striving to improve RWS’s product offerings to cater to direct VIP clients, driving up its rolling chips volume. While win rates are the most uncertain factor which would affect VIP GGR, we expect RWS to maintain its dominance by capturing 64-67% of the VIP market share. This prominence could be further enhanced by the approval of junket operators.

Inevitable loss in mass market share. We gather that it is inevitable for RWS to shed market share in the grind business to MBS because: 1) the operator is not as pro-active in attracting mass-market gamblers as MBS; 2) foot traffic at RWS might not be as heavy as in MBS during weekdays; 3) average wagers at MBS could be higher than that at RWS due to the premium brand attached to the former. Moreover, in view of the difference in main massmarket customers (white collars and day trippers in the city at MBS vs. tourists from Malaysia/Indonesia at RWS), it should not come as a surprise if RWS’s revenue is more susceptible to seasonal effects. As of 1Q11, RWS still topped MBS by raking in 54% of mass-market GGR but we expect a more balanced share of the pie going forward.

More non-gaming amenities to be launched in 2012. After celebrating the grand opening of Universal Studio Sentosa (USS) at end-May, Genting Singapore’s next launch in the pipeline would be the Maritime Experiential Museum & Aquarium in Sep 11. Subsequently, Equarius Hotel and Spa Villas will debut early next year before Chinese New Year, followed by the Marine Life Park which would then complete the development of the West Zone of RWS. Management has clarified that construction is on schedule and has not been delayed as claimed by some industry observers. We believe the operator’s non-gaming amenities would further complement USS, thus offering an even more comprehensive integrated resort experience to its patrons, especially the getaway weekenders and tourists. We remain upbeat on the attractiveness of these non-gaming facilities to draw in more visitors, which in turn could translate into higher casino patronage and gaming revenue. We believe RWS should be able to cushion its diminishing dominance in the mass market by opening more nongaming amenities in FY12.

Reading into MBS’s 2Q11 operational figures
Stellar 2Q11 results from MBS. Las Vegas Sands (LVS) reported its 2Q11 results early this morning, shedding light on the operational performance of its Singapore property, MBS. In contrast to market expectations of a softer second quarter, MBS’s 2Q11 results were outstanding, to say the least, with operational improvements seen across the board. The operator’s reported adjusted EBITDA of US$405m (S$487m) in 2Q11 was an increase of 43% qoq and more than tripling the US$95m for the same period last year. The strong sequential growth was underpinned by double-digit qoq growth in: 1) rolling chips volume (+21% qoq); 2) non-rolling chips drop (13% qoq); and 3) slot handles (+17% qoq). A higher VIP win rate of 2.99% was booked in 2Q11, compared with 2.56% in 1Q11. Net revenue expanded by 26% qoq while EBITDA margins expanded 6% pts from 1Q11 to a firm 55% in 2Q11.

Bullish tone from MBS. During its conference call, LVS was generally upbeat on its Singapore IR and believes there is further room for growth as the property matures and it continuously ramps up its operations. Management also downplayed claims that the Singapore gaming market has saturated. July’s performance seems to indicate that the summer (i.e. 3Q) could very well be a peak season, suggesting a possibly stronger quarter ahead.

Is MBS expanding at the expense of RWS? We were surprised that MBS not only made great strides in the mass market, but also its VIP segment, which is generally regarded as RWS’s turf. With MBS gathering momentum in both the VIP and mass markets, the duopoly gaming market in Singapore suggests that MBS’s gains could have come at the expense of RWS. This is not entirely surprising as we previously expected a convergence of GGR market share between the two operators.

Genting Singapore’s results could come in above expectations. According to our FY11 GGR market-share spilt assumption of 60:40 in favour of RWS, RWS could deliver net gaming revenue of S$1,106m and total revenue of S$1,120m in 2Q11, 45% higher than our current estimate of S$775m (vs. consensus’s S$836). Taking into consideration the most negative cannibalisation scenario and assuming a GGR marketshare spilt of 50:50 in 2Q11, we could still see total revenue of S$898, 16% above our forecast. Also, we are currently projecting EBITDA of S$326m for 2Q11 for Genting Singapore, in line with consensus expectations. We think that our numbers as well as the Street’s are tilted towards the conservative side and any surprises are likely to be on the upside.

Valuation and recommendation
Looking beyond 2Q; maintain OUTPERFORM. We believe RWS’s 2Q could be soft on seasonal factors and normalised luck in the VIP segment. MBS’s stellar performance could also indicate an element of cannibalisation in the duopoly Singapore gaming market. Nevertheless, we suggest investors look beyond Genting Singapore’s possible short-term blips and capitalise on the longer-term prospects of the sector and company. Its 20% drop in share price from a high of S$2.24 may indicate that the market has factored in these negatives. We maintain our target price of S$2.79, based on 16x CY12 EV/EBITDA. We anticipate catalysts from: 1) better-than-expected 2Q11 results; 2) the licensing of junket operations; and 3) sustained leadership in Singapore.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CIMB Research
Publish date:27/07/11

MIT: Strong reversions from under-rented portfolio (DBSV)

Mapletree Industrial Trust
Strong reversions from under-rented portfolio
BUY S$1.14
Price Target : S$ 1.21
At a Glance
• Strong occupancies and robust rental renewals underpin performance in 1Q12
• Growth to accelerate from (i) completion of JTC portfolio acquisition; and (ii) higher rental growth profile without rental caps
• BUY, S$1.21 TP maintained.

Comment on Results
1Q12 - a strong start to the year. Mapletree Industrial Trust’s (MINT) 1Q11 results were in line with expectations. Gross revenues and net property income were higher than IPO forecast but in line with our targets at S$55.0m and S$38.2m respectively. Distributable income was higher by 9.3 % compared to IPO forecasts, translating to DPU of 1.98 Scts.

Robust portfolio performance seen. The continued robust performance was driven by higher portfolio occupancies – MINT achieved a high of 94.3% in 1Q12 ( vs 93.2% in 4Q11) - while its properties benefited from higher rental rates secured during renewals and recorded a high of S$1.52 psf pm on a portfolio basis. Renewals remain robust and positive – 99.3% of leases expired were renewed at the maximum cap (which will fall off from July’11) with strong retention rates of over 88%. New leases that were secured at market rates were also in excess of 20%-40% higher than expiring rents.

Growth to accelerate from 2Q12. Growth in the coming quarters will likely to hinge from : (i) completion of the recent tender award of JTC portfolio (cS$400m) likely in Aug’11, with funding of this purchase yet to be announced; and (ii) ability to price renewals closer to market levels for remaining 13% of topline to be renewed in the following three quarters of FY12, given the expiry of the rental caps recently.

Recommendation
BUY call maintained. Forward yields of 6.9-7.4% are attractive in our view, given its resilient and diversified portfolio with a strong sponsor backing. TP of S$1.21 offers total return of 13%.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: DBS Vickers Research (
Publish date:27/07/11

CDLHT: Strong organic performance (DBSV)

CDL Hospitality Trust
Strong organic performance
BUY S$2.10
Price Target : S$ 2.30
At a Glance
• Payout ratio of 90% for 1H11
• Renovation of rooms in Orchard Hotel, Novotel Clarke Quay to underpin earnings growth
• BUY, S$2.30 TP maintained

Comment on Results
Seasonally strong 2Q11 results. CDL Hospitality Trust’s (CDL HT) 2Q11 gross revenues grew by 13% to S$34.6m. Organic growth remains strong with its Singapore portfolio posting RevPAR growth of 4.8% y-o-y (5.1% q-o-q) to S$205/night, backed by high occupancy level of c88% and partial contribution from the newly acquired Studio M hotel (acquired in May’11). Net property income grew by a higher 24% yoy to S$35.6m largely due to a one-off tax rebate of S$3.3m. As such, distributable income grew 31% to S$31.7m (DPU of 5.94 Scts before income retained) largely due to interest savings from its loan refinancing. For 1H11, the trust will be distributing 5.34 Scts, which implies a payout ratio of 90%. Moving into higher gear in 3Q11. We note that Orchard Hotel (OCH) had c.4,417 room nights and Novotel Clarke Quay Hotel (NCQ) had c.1,133 room nights taken out of total sellable room inventory for 2 weeks, which limited optimal portfolio performance. However, we remain optimistic that when renovations are completed, these rooms, estimated to command c10%-15% higher rates on average, should enable higher earnings growth for the Trust towards the end of the year

Recommendation
BUY, S$2.30 TP maintained. Management’s stance towards optimizing portfolio yields from the execution of its refurbishment plans should sharpen its competitive edge against peers and translate to longer-term earnings sustainability, in our view. CDL HT currently offers a yield of 5.7-6.3%.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: DBS Vickers Research
Publish date:27/07/11

CDLHT: Growth slowed by upgrading work (CIMB)

CDL Hospitality Trust
NEUTRAL Maintained
S$2.10 Target: S$2.13
Growth slowed by upgrading work

• Slightly below; maintain Neutral. 2Q11 and 1H11 profits available for distribution form 26% and 49% of our FY11 estimates. Backend-loaded contributions are expected from its newly-acquired Studio M and the return of available rooms after upgrading work at Orchard Hotel. 1H11 DPU, however, is only 43% of our estimate due to a lower payout (90% vs. our expected 95%); the number is also below consensus. Performance in the quarter was affected by the upgrading of 331 rooms at Orchard Hotel, resulting in a slower 5% REVPAR increase in 2Q11. We reduce our FY11 DPU estimate by 5% to factor in lower payouts while fine-tuning our FY12- 13 DPU forecasts. Accordingly, our DDM-based target price drops to S$2.13 (discount rate: 8.6%) from S$2.14. While CDLHT offers excellent local tourism exposure, its positives may have been priced in at 1.3x P/BV. Hence, maintain Neutral.

• Performance affected by upgrading work at Orchard Hotel. Upgrading work at Orchard Hotel took away 4,417 room nights (7% and 2% of its Orchard Hotel and total inventory) in 2Q11. This resulted in slower yoy REVPAR growth of 5% vs. 12% in 1Q11 on the back of a 0.4%-pt drop in occupancy and 6% growth in room rates. Excluding this, occupancy would have surpassed 2Q10 levels and we estimate that REVPAR could have grown by high single digits yoy. All its local hotels continued to enjoy double-digit yoy growth, except M Hotel and Orchard Hotel.

• Update on Orchard Hotel and Novotel Clarke Quay AEI. The remaining 108 and 88 rooms at Orchard Hotel and Novotel Clarke Quay respectively should be completed by Sep 11 (in time for F1) and early 2012. While growth in room rates at the former had been under pressure from renovation work, rates could increase at the end of refurbishment.

• Asset leverage at a low 26%, leaving CDLHT with debt headroom of nearly S$700m to a 45% gearing for acquisitions. Nonetheless, with elevated capital values for local hospitality assets, any acquisition will likely come from overseas such as Japan where valuations may be more realistic.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CIMB Research
Publish date:27/07/11

FCT: Bedok Point acquisition imminent (DMG)

Frasers Centrepoint Trust: Bedok Point acquisition imminent

(BUY, S$1.56, TP S$1.77)

3QFY11 results slightly below expectation; expect strong 4QFY11. Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT) reported 3QFY11 DPU of 1.95S¢ (-5.8% QoQ; -5.8% YoY), which represents 24% of our FY11 estimate. Net property income fell 13.4% YoY to S$20.1m (-7.2% QoQ) mainly due to income loss from the asset enhancement initiatives (AEI) at Causeway Point (CWP). For the upcoming 4QFY11, we expect DPU to be stronger at 2.02S¢ on the back of higher occupancy rate at CWP as a result of greater level of AEI completion. Separately, FCT now expects Bedok Point to be acquired in 4QFY11. The addition of Bedok Point will add additional 81k sqft of NLA, which represents ~10% of FCT’s Singapore portfolio NLA (excludes NLA from 33% stake in Hekhtar REIT). Maintain BUY with unchanged TP of S$1.77.



Time lag between AEI impact and rental payment resulted in lower revenue QoQ. CWP’s occupancy was at its lowest in QEMar2011 at 69% since the commencement of CWP AEI. Due to time lag difference, the negative impact of lower occupancy rate only hit FCT in 3QFY11 which registered gross revenue drop of 11.1% YoY to S$27.3m (-5.3% QoQ). However, with the swift progress of AEI and higher occupancy of 78% as at Jun 2011, we expect CWP to drive the revenue and DPU growth for FCT in 4QFY11. Management has indicated that the progress is ahead of plan with occupancy rate at CWP expected to hit 90% from Aug 2011 onwards. In addition, current average passing rent for the refurbished space at CWP is said to be in excess of the projected figure of S$12.20 psf pm.



Bedok Point acquisition expected in 4QFY11. We expect Bedok Point acquisition to be completed in the next two months. Situated within 5km of Bedok MRT station, Bedok Point has an estimated catchment population of 295k. Its current occupancy rate is 98% which is comparable vis-à-vis FCT’s portfolio ex-Causeway Point estimated occupancy of 99%. Almost 40% of Bedok Point space is taken up by food and beverage tenants. Should the acquisition go ahead, we believe the management is likely to fund the acquisition via equity/debt mix.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: DMG & Partners Research
Publish date:27/07/11

MIT's Q1 DPU exceeds forecast

Business Times - 27 Jul 2011


MIT's Q1 DPU exceeds forecast

By KELLY TAY

MAPLETREE Industrial Trust (MIT), which was listed in late October last year, announced a first-quarter distribution per unit (DPU) of 1.98 cents, 8.8 per cent higher than its forecast of 1.82 cents.

Income available for distribution for the three months ended June 30, 2011, was $29.03 million, 9.3 per cent higher than forecast. Gross revenue for Q1 FY2011 increased 4.4 per cent to $55 million from the forecast $52.7 million. Property operating expenses dipped 0.4 per cent from the forecast $16.83 million to $16.76 million.

Net property income for Q1 FY2011 increased by 6.6 per cent to $38.24 million from the forecast $35.87 million.

Said Tham Kuo Wei, chief executive officer of Mapletree Industrial Trust Management (MITM), the manager of MIT: 'We are pleased to have delivered results which exceeded forecast yet again on improved revenue and reduced expenses. For a third consecutive quarter since listing date of Oct 21, 2010, the portfolio has achieved higher average occupancy rate of 94.3 per cent, and higher average passing rental rate of $1.52 psf/mth.'

On distribution to unitholders, MITM said that as stated in the IPO prospectus, MIT is committed to distributing 100 per cent of its adjusted taxable income from listing date till March 31, 2012.

On the outlook for the industrial property sector, MITM said: 'Average rents for industrial spaces continued to increase in Q2 2011 as the leasing market tightened further. The outlook for the industrial property sector remains positive in the medium term. The manager believes that barring any major economic shock, MIT's property-leasing activities should continue to do well.'

Earlier this month, MIT was awarded one of two tranches of the JTC second phase divestment exercise portfolio at $400.3 million.

MITM said that it 'expects income contribution to commence immediately upon completion of the acquisition targeted at the end of August 2011'.

MIT's IPO portfolio of 70 properties in Singapore is valued at approximately $2.2 billion as at March 31, 2011.

MIT closed trading yesterday at $1.14 per share


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:27/07/11

FCT's Q3 DPU drops 5.8%

Business Times - 27 Jul 2011


FCT's Q3 DPU drops 5.8%

By EMILYN YAP

FRASERS Centrepoint Trust (FCT) posted a lower distribution per unit (DPU) for the third quarter as refurbishment works at Causeway Point affected earnings, but it expects DPU for this financial year to be comparable with last year's once contribution from the mall rises in the fourth quarter.

FCT is also preparing for the acquisition of Bedok Point in the next few months, and an equity fund-raising exercise could be on the cards.

For the third quarter ended June 30, FCT's DPU was 1.95 cents, down 5.8 per cent from a year ago, as distribution to unitholders dropped 5.1 per cent to $15.1 million. Net property income fell 13.4 per cent to $18.7 million.

But things should be looking up with the most intensive part of Causeway Point's refurbishment over - 51.5 per cent of asset enhancement works were completed as at June 30, and revamped sections at the basement and first two levels of the mall have opened for business.

The mall's 'occupancy rate and income contribution to the trust are swinging back up' and the newly opened sections have received positive feedback from tenants and shoppers, said Chew Tuan Chiong, CEO of FCT's manager, in a statement.

'We expect an upturn in revenue contribution from Causeway Point, leading to a rebound in income for the fourth quarter. FCT's full-year DPU for FY2011 should be comparable to the prior year.'

In the previous financial year, total DPU came up to 8.2 cents. In FY 2011, DPUs in the first nine months have added up to 5.97 cents.

FCT is looking to acquire Bedok Point in this financial year. The mall opened in December last year and has 'stabilised', Dr Chew said at a briefing.

He revealed that FCT could fund the purchase with both debt and equity. 'We would like to increase the free float,' he said.

Also in the acquisition pipeline is Changi City Point, which is expected to open this year. FCT could acquire the mall by the end of the next calendar year, Dr Chew said.

FCT closed unchanged on the stock market yesterday at $1.555.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:27/07/11

亚洲货币升至14年高点

亚洲货币升至14年高点

(2011-07-27)


新加坡综合电)受美国债务谈判陷入僵局影响,美元兑主要货币下跌,亚洲货币升至14年高点。
  在新加坡,随着通货膨胀压力增加,投资者预期新加坡金融管理局将接受更坚挺的新元,推动新元汇率昨天又升至纪录高位,以1.2023兑1美元结束在亚洲的走势。

  在住房成本、食品价格和交通费上涨的推动下,我国6月份的通货膨胀率高达5.2%,上半年的消费价格指数同比上涨了5%。金管局上周调高了我国今年全年的通胀预测,从3%至4%调高到4%至5%。

  交易商表示,金管局近日不时有进场查询新元汇率,昨天据说曾在1.2040的价位买入美元。

  追踪亚洲地区10种交投最活跃货币表现的彭博摩根大通亚洲美元指数涨至14年高点120.04。

  在马来西亚,令吉也突破重要阻力,升至1997年以来最高的2.9515兑1美元。

  交易员和分析师认为,不论美国债务谈判结局如何,都不会损及亚洲货币的看涨行情。

  法国东方汇理银行新兴市场外汇交易主管表示,“如果提高债务上限协议没有通过,我们将持续见到对亚洲资产的需求,而若债务上限协议能于下周通过,届时的风险偏好飙升,也将激发市场抛售美元兑大多数亚洲货币。”

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date:27/07/11

First REIT: Appreciating its Assets (SIAS)

26/07/11
First Real Estate Investment Trust
Increase Exposure
 Intrinsic Value: S$0.935
 Prev Close: S$0.835
Appreciating its Assets

Appreciating its Assets

First Real Estate Investment Trust’s (First REIT) 2Q11 results were largely within expectations, with gross revenue and distributable income rising 75.3% and 86.5% YoY to S$13.2m and S$9.9m respectively. Correspondingly, the company’s 1H11 revenue and distributable income formed 48.8% and 49.5% of our FY11F – 1H11 result is lower as contribution from the Sarang Hospital will only take effect in 2H11. We have compared the dividend yield between Parkway Life and First REIT and continue to view the 2.5% additional yield spread as excessive. Maintain Increase Exposure with an intrinsic value of S$0.935.

Key Developments:
 Results Summary: 2Q11 gross revenue and distributable income were stable QoQ as First REIT’s assets continued to perform and operating expenses were well-maintained. The company declared a DPU of 1.58 S cents, reflecting a dividend yield of ~7.6%.
 Adam Road Divestment: First REIT’s gain (approx S$8.7m) from sale of the Adam Road property may be subjected to a 17% tax, pending on the Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore’s decision of whether the profit is considered a capital gain or trading gain. Management may use the proceeds to make new acquisitions or distribute as special dividend over a few quarters. We believe the decision is largely dependent on the REIT’s upcoming acquisition pipeline.
 What is First REIT Looking At? Following the acquisition of Sarang Hospital, we believe First REIT will continue to seek for yield accretive assets 1) from their sponsor Lippo Karawaci, and 2) as in the case of their latest acquisition. South Korea is one of the markets First REIT is looking at mainly due to its National Health Insurance program which provides coverage to all citizens and significantly lower the probability of bad debts. We also expect the next few acquisitions, if any, to be financed internally owing to the Adam Road divestment and the company’s ability to lever their balance sheet further.

Excessive Premium Demanded: First REIT’s share performance had been impressive over the last two years, as seen from its declining indicative dividend yield. Yield spread over its closest comparable Parkway Life, had also been declining over the last two years to about 2.5% - investors are gradually appreciating First REIT’s assets. We continue to reiterate that the premium demanded is in excessive as 1) First REIT has good assets that are on long term lease, 2) the company is backed by a powerful sponsor and tenant Lippo Karawaci and 3) First REIT has minimal currency exposure as its rentals are in S$. We reckon that a yield spread of 1.5% above Parkway Life is more appropriate for First REIT.

Valuation: First REIT is a quality healthcare play whose performance had been consistent over the past few years. Trading at a current dividend yield of 7.6%, we continue to deem that investors had imposed excess yield premium on the counter. Our DDM model suggests an intrinsic value of S$0.935. Maintain Increase Exposure.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: SIAS Research
Publish date:27/07/11

MIT: No surprises (CIMB)

Mapletree Industrial Trust
OUTPERFORM Maintained
S$1.14 Target: S$1.27
No surprises

• In line; maintain Outperform. 1Q12 DPU of 1.9cts meets consensus and our expectations, accounting for 25% of our FY12 estimate and 23% of consensus. No major surprises. Positives were a 1.1%-pt qoq improvement in occupancy and continued positive rental reversions. No further details were furnished on the mode of funding for the acquisition of Tranche 2 of JTC’s second-phase divestment. Completion is expected by end-Aug 11. We keep our DPU estimates and DDMbased target price of S$1.27 (discount rate 8.4%) pending a conference call. Our estimates have not factored in the acquisition’s mode of funding. We continue to like MINT for its organic growth potential, expecting catalysts from higher-than-expected rental reversions on the lifting of rental caps.

• Net property income (NPI) up 14% yoy. NPI grew 14% yoy on stronger occupancy and positive rental reversions for lease renewals. Distributable profit, however, grew a larger 17% yoy due to lower interest costs.

• Strong occupancy and rental reversions. Portfolio occupancy improved 1.1% pts qoq to 94.3%. MINT has renewed more than half of its leases expiring this year. With leases renewed at 15% above preceding rentals on average, passing rents crept up to S$1.52 psf, +2% qoq. And with 99.3% of leases renewed at the maximum, rental improvements could accelerate once caps are lifted from 30 Jun 11.

• Asset leverage at 36%. This leaves debt headroom of more than S$370m to a 45% gearing, although management is unlikely to gear up fully for the JTC acquisition and we expect 40-50% debt funding. Management is still reviewing its funding options and no details have been furnished. Refinancing risks should be low with no debt due in FY12.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CIMB Research
Publish date:27/07/11

FCT: Timing issues (CIMB)

Frasers Centrepoint Trust
OUTPERFORM Maintained
S$1.56 Target: S$1.82
Timing issues

• Broadly in line; maintain Outperform. 3Q11 DPU of 1.95cts meets our forecast and Street expectations, at 23% of our FY11 number. 9M11 DPU forms 71% of our estimate. Causeway Point’s performance was weaker this quarter, due to refurbishment work and the relocation/replacement of a high-rental tenant, though its performance should improve with higher occupancy of 78% as at end-3Q11. Positives were continued positive rental reversions and occupancy, potentially better Causeway Point occupancy and rentals going forward and increased clarity on its Bedok Point injection (end-Sep 11 target). We fine-tune our FY11-13 DPU estimates and slightly trim our DDM target price to S$1.82 (discount rate: 7.9%) from S$1.86. We continue to like FCT for its well-located malls, organic growth with the ongoing refurbishment of Causeway Point and acquisition growth potential.

• NPI of S$18.7m was down 13% yoy, as NPI from Causeway Point fell 35% yoy after FCT brought forward renovation work. Positive rental reversions were booked for its portfolio though reversions for Causeway Point were a negative 0.7% due to the relocation/replacement of a high-rental tenant (+12% excluding this). Distributable profit and DPU fell by a more muted 6% on the release of S$0.3m retained in 2Q11.

• Contributions from Causeway Point should pick up from higher occupancy of 78% as at end-3Q11 (2Q11: 69%), with occupancy expected to stay above 90% from Aug 11. On the back of higher contributions expected, management believes FY11 DPU could be comparable to or even surpass FY10’s DPU of 8.2cts.

• Bedok Point to be injected by Sep 11. Management has provided greater clarity on the injection of Bedok Point, suggesting a conclusion by Sep 11. It maintains its previous guidance that the acquisition would be funded by a mixture of debt and equity. Our estimates show that an injection at cap rates of 5.7% could lift DPU by around 1% on full-year contributions in FY12, assuming 50:50 debt-equity funding.

Refinancing to bring down interest costs. FCT refinanced S$260m of its debt due in Jul 11 with a loan at 95bp above the 5-year SOR and will be entering into arrangements to hedge at least 60% of its interest-rate exposure under the loan within the next two months. With this, FCT would have no major refinancing till 2016. We had earlier factored in a lower interest cost and expect blended cost of borrowing to come in at about 3.5% in FY12. The corporate rating for its MTN programme had also been upgraded to BBB+ from BBB, which could yield some cost savings on refinancing, though the effects should be marginal in view of the smaller loan quantum.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CIMB Research
Publish date:26/07/11

Marc Faber - do we stock up on gold



21 Mar 2011

(Presenter)
Do we stock up on gold?

(Marc Faber)
Well I have maintained the same view regarding gold and other precious metals for essentially the last 10 years. And that is to accumulate physical gold and silver. And if you want to have a riskier exposure to buy some gold exposure companies from time to time when they become cheap. So this is a long-term strategy in an environment where governments are going to print money. You will see the transfer of the balance sheet of banks onto the government. Paper money goes down relative to precious metals.

Before we go bust governments will print money and we will go to war.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date:24/07/11

"Dr. Doom" Marc Faber: Here's How the US Debt Ceiling Crisis Will End




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date:11/07/11

Roubini on 'Perfect Storm' [NBC 7-06-2011]



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date:07/06/11

財經360 -- 0726 - 美國未能提高債務上限的後果




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date:26/07/11

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

2011-0722-57金錢爆(養妻千日 用在一秒??)



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date:22/07/11

2011-0721-57金錢爆(名偵探柯"北" 沉默的七矮人??)



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date:21/07/11

大馬首季FDI達37億美元 資金流出嚴重 聯合國促正視

吉隆坡26日訊) 大馬今年首季外來直接投資(FDI)達37億美元,共佔2010年全年外來直接投資91億美元的40%。無論如何,資金流出已經導致我國2010年淨外來直接投資寫下負40億美元。聯合國警告,大馬必須正視資金流出及淨外來直接投資的課題。


聯合國駐大馬協調代表卡馬爾馬爾霍特勒披露,我國從1995年至2004年的平均資金流出只是18.9億美元,但在近年來卻有顯著上漲的趨勢。報告顯示,大馬在2009年資金流出達79億美元,2010年更是高達133億美元。「這已經導致大馬去年淨外來直接投資寫下負40億美元。」

卡馬爾馬爾霍特勒是在《世界投資報告》推介禮上發表以上談話,聯合出席的還包括大馬國際貿工部(MITI)部長拿督斯里慕斯達法、馬來西亞工業發展局(MIDA)主管拿督嘉莉拉芭芭、以及《世界投資報告》日本籍主要作者籐田正孝。後者也是聯合國貿易及發展會議(UNCTAD)投資趨勢與課題部主管。

慕斯達法指出,大馬今年首季外來直接投資達37億美元,佔據去年全年外來直接投資的40%。有鑑於此,國際貿工部在現階段將維持今年全年的100億美元外來直接投資預測,仍比去年全年的91億美元來得高。

「第二季的外來直接投資數字料在一個月內出爐,屆時我們才會作出必要的調整。」他聲言,100億美元其實是國際貿工部設下的最低目標,若超越則是「意外收穫」。

全球FDI兩年內回升至危機前水平

《世界投資報告》披露,製造領域共佔我國2010年外來直接投資的54.9%,緊接著下來的分別是貢獻34.1%的服務領域,以及10.7%的採礦業。慕斯達法表示,製造領域料將繼續成為最大貢獻領域,但政府有意提高服務領域的貢獻比重,同時在未來更看重油氣領域的外來直接投資。

另一方面,嘉莉拉芭芭指出,我國2010年外來直接投資寫下91億美元,高過2007年高峰期的85.9億美元,更比去年的14.3億美元成長逾500%。此外,我國也是繼新加坡和印尼之後,吸引外來直接投資的第三大東盟國家。

最後,籐田正孝聲言,全球外來直接投資將在兩年內回升至危機前水平。「我們估計,全球外來直接投資需等到2013年,才能衝破2007年高峰期的1.97兆美元。」

此外,全球外來直接投資料在今年回揚至1.4兆美元至1.6兆美元,重返危機前平均水平,即1.472兆美元。

《世界投資報告》的數據顯示,2010年全球外來直接投資從1.185兆美元,按年上漲5%,至1.24兆美元,但還是15%低於危機前平均水平


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Oriental Daily
Publish date:27/07/11

FCT: Waiting for year-end bonus (DBSV)

Frasers Centrepoint Trust
Waiting for year-end bonus
BUY S$1.56
Price Target : S$ 1.73
At a Glance
• In line with expectation and on track to meet our full year estimates.
• 51% of completed CWP AEI works at prime levels to underpin earning growth; DPU accretive Bedok Point acquisition likely within next quarter.
• Maintain BUY, TP $1.73 for 17% total return

Comment on Results
FCT 3Q results is in line with expectations. The 11.1% and 13.4% yoy decline in gross revenue and net property income to S$27.3 m and S$18.7 m respectively were expected. Lower contribution from Causeway Point (CWP), currently under renovation, was the key factor but performance was partially offset by the stable occupancies at its other retail malls as well as healthy rental reversions (+3.8%) enjoyed in 3Q. On a q-o-q basis, gross revenue and NPI dipped marginally by 3.5% and 4.0% respectively. Distributable income was S$15.08m (-5.8% yoy, -5.7% qoq) including the S$0.3m retained from the previous quarter, translating to a DPU of 1.95 Scts. DPU achieved in the first 3 quarters form c.72% of our full year estimates and we believe that the group is on track to meet our estimates. Improving occupancies at CWP to underpin arning growth.

Portfolio occupancy increased from 83% a quarter ago to 88% in 3Q with the completion of 51% of the AEI works at CWP. They are mostly at B1 and Level 1, the most prime space of the mall. CWP’s occupancy rate rebounded from 69% to 78% and should hover above 90% from 4Q11 onwards. About 95% of the AEI works has been pre-committed and is expected to see at least a 20% increase in average rent from the current S$10.2 psf pm post AEI works. Meanwhile, the group has refinanced S$260m with a 5-year loan facility at a more attractive rate, lowering all-in interest rate from 3.83% to about c.3.68% and should enjoy some interest savings going forward. Gearing is at a healthy 31.7%.

Recommendation
We believe that the group is on track to meet our estimates on the back of strong portfolio performance. Our forecasts exclude acquisition of Bedok Point, which will likely materialise within the next quarter. The stock offers FY11/12F yields of 5.4%-5.7%, translating to a total return of 17%.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: DBS Vickers Research
Publish date:26/07/11

NOL:NOL Period 6 operating data: rates continue to slide (DBSV)

Neptune Orient Lines
FULLY VALUED S$1.45
Price Target : 12-month S$ 1.25
NOL Period 6 operating data: rates continue to slide
Freight rates continue downward slide in June. Period 6 is the first month where rates usually reflect the initial effect of the recently concluded annual Transpacific contract renegotiations. Thus, the fact that average revenue per FEU in Period 6 slid further down 2% compared to Period 5 and was down 13% y-o-y to US$2,513 indicates that in addition to the continuing weakness on the Asia-Europe trade lane, Transpacific rates are also down y-o-y, probably to the tune of 5-10%. Average freight rates for NOL in 2Q11 stood at about US$2,540 by our estimate, down about 2.3% compared to the 1Q11 average rate of US$2,599 per FEU.

Volumes remain intact. For the 4 weeks of Period 6 2011 (4 Jun to 1 Jul 2011), NOL reported container volumes of 232,700 FEUs - up 5% y-o-y and 2% m-o-m - on the back of sustained higher trade volumes on the Intra-Asia trades, which we had identified as the high growth segment in our recent container shipping sector report. For 2Q11, volumes were up 7% y-o-y to 691,800 FEUs. Thus, the volume trend still implies decent growth over FY10 numbers, but it remains to be seen whether the unfolding economic events in EU and US affect demand in 2H11. Overall, volume growth is not as much a concern to sector dynamics as the influx of supply of mega vessels - especially into the Asia-Europe trade lane and potential cascading of supply into other trade lanes.

Losses could be higher in 2Q11. As we have highlighted earlier, NOL should be reporting earnings going deeper into the red in 2Q11, compared to the US$10m net loss recorded in 1Q11. However, given the slightly weaker than expected rates data for Period 6, the loss could be higher than we had earlier estimated and could be somewhere close to US$50m in 2Q11. Thus, there could be potential downside to our current earnings estimates, and we will review our numbers in greater detail after NOL reports 2Q11 results on 12th August. Given that we are already significantly below consensus earnings estimates, we think there could be further downgrades from the street in coming weeks. Maintain FULLY VALUED, with TP of S$1.25.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: DBS Vickers Research
Publish date:26/07/11

Rickmers Maritime: Exit from waiver period not in sight (DBSV)

Rickmers Maritime
Exit from waiver period not in sight
HOLD S$0.41
Price Target : S$ 0.37

At a Glance
• DPU payout for 2Q11 maintained at 0.60UScts as accelerated repayment of loans continues
• Covenant waiver period likely to continue as container shipping fundamentals weaken, further raised uncertainty in future asset values
• Maintain HOLD with TP of S$0.37 as DPU cap stays

Comment on Results
Cash flows up slightly in 2Q11. RMT recorded revenues of US$37.6m in 2Q11, 3% higher y-o-y, owing to the higher charter rate received from employment of vessel Kaethe C. Rickmers, which is now fixed at US$23,888 per day compared to US$8,288 per day in 2Q10. This also resulted in a write-back of vessel impairment of US$2.9m for Kaethe C. Rickmers, but was more than offset by an impairment of goodwill charge of US$4.1m on another vessel as internal WACC for impairment check was raised from 7.28% to 7.52%. These items are, however, non-cash in nature and distributable cash flows increased 8% q-o-q to US$17.5m. DPU stays at 0.6SUScts, loan repayments continue. The Trust repaid about US$11.2m of borrowings in 2Q11 – ahead of scheduled repayment of about US$8m – and distribution to unitholders remained steady at US$2.5m for 1Q11, translating to a DPU of 0.6UScts, at the upper end of the DPU cap imposed by lenders.

Outlook & Recommendation
DPU cap could stay for a while. The Trust will continue to use its cash reserves of about US$50m to pay down debts in excess of scheduled repayments in 2H11. However, the Trust’s DPU cap is likely to be in place as long as the Value-to-Loan ratio on the IPO facility and subsequent top-up facility (about US$411m of which is outstanding currently) is below the covenant limit of 133%. According to our estimates, the market value of the 10 vessels which are encumbered could be around US$480m currently, which implies a coverage ratio of only 117%. And with container shipping likely heading towards a potential down cycle, asset values could come under further stress. Thus, we maintain our HOLD call on the stock, and our TP remains unchanged at S$0.37.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: DBS Vickers Research
Publish date:26/07/11

Defensive stocks find favour with Nomura

Business Times - 26 Jul 2011


Defensive stocks find favour with Nomura

By MICHELLE YEO

NOMURA Equity Research has called for a defensive strategy in the Singapore stock market, citing an uncertain external environment, a slowing economic outlook for Singapore and an over-extended residential property sector.

In a report yesterday on the second-half outlook for the Singapore market, Nomura said that while valuations appear undemanding, it sees market returns as likely to be pedestrian, with the Straits Times Index ranging between 2,900 and 3,200 for the rest of the year.

It therefore advises investors to go for sectors that provide sustainable dividend yields and stocks that have a regional presence and a re-rating potential based on fundamentals.

'In spite of undemanding valuations (price-to- book of 1.5x and price/ earnings of 13.5x), the Singapore market continues to underperform the rest of the Asean countries, with a negative return year-to- date.

'We think market consensus earnings expectations of 11 per cent for 2012 may be too optimistic as corporate earnings come under pressure due to a strong Singapore dollar, higher wages and input costs, and weakening demand,' said Nomura.

Nomura said that following the Singapore general election, the property, gaming and land transport sectors could see policy reviews which could undermine the performance of related stocks.

An over-extended residential property market could also start to impact banks' earnings.

Calling for an overweight on telcos and conglomerates, Nomura said that it is bullish on these sectors for their yields.

It also favours real estate investment trusts (Reits), saying: 'With the persistent low interest rate environment, Reits are attractive for their 5 per cent-plus yields.'

Nomura said that it favours stocks which have high yields and re-rating potential.

Within conglomerates, it picks ST Engineering, Keppel Corp and Fraser and Neave (F&N) for their strong business franchises and yields.

'SingTel (5 per cent yield) and M-1 (6 per cent) provide the stability of yields and resilient earnings . . . OCBC is our top pick for banks given its broad wealth management platform and regional presence,' it said.

As for Reits, Nomura favours Suntec, K-Reit and CapitaCommercial Trust for their attractive yields of between 5 per cent and 6 per cent.

For commodities, Nomura said Olam and Golden Agri are trading at attractive levels.

Biosensors is seen as being able to re-rate on strong growth for its DES (drug eluting stent) products in China and Japan.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:26/07/11

Starhill Global Reit's Q2 DPU increases 14.3%

Business Times - 26 Jul 2011


Starhill Global Reit's Q2 DPU increases 14.3%

By JASMINE NG

STARHILL Global Real Estate Investment Trust said yesterday that its second-quarter distribution per unit climbed 14.3 per cent, buoyed by its Malaysian and Australian purchases. The DPU of 1.04 cents compares with 0.91 cents a year ago.

Q2 income available for distribution rose 26.8 per cent year on year to $22.8 million, while net property income was up 23.4 per cent year on year at $35.6 million.

Gross revenue was up 18.9 per cent at $44.24 million.

'Our acquisitions of Starhill Gallery and Lot 10 in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia and David Jones Building in Perth, Australia last year have been key contributors to the growth,' said Francis Yeoh, executive chairman of YTL Starhill Global, which manages the Reit.

Starhill Global Reit's Singapore portfolio, comprising interests in Wisma Atria and Ngee Ann City on Orchard Road, contributed 62 per cent, or $27.5 million of total revenue.

Starhill Global Reit said that while the take-up rate for office space in Singapore has been healthy, overall rental rates have declined as new and renewed office leases were secured at rental rates which are below the peak levels achieved in 2007.

However, its Malaysia portfolio contributed 17.3 per cent, or $7.7 million, of Q2 revenue. The David Jones Building in Perth contributed 8.3 per cent or $3.7 million to total revenue.

Starhill Global Reit said that the global economic growth will continue to be led by Asia for the rest of this year. As the ongoing debt crisis in Europe and the United States continue to weigh down the economic growth of these advanced economies, IMF projects that Asia's gross domestic product will expand by 8.4 per cent this year.

Against this backdrop, it is proceeding with the redevelopment of the Wisma Atria property, which is expected to be completed in the third quarter next year.

Its retail properties in Malaysia and Australia have master leases or long-term leases with built-in step-up rents.

'These will contribute to the stability and sustainability of the income while ensuring organic growth for Starhill Global Reit,' it said.

Starhill Global Reit closed trading yesterday at 65.5 cents, up half a cent.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:26/07/11

Rickmers' Q2 DPU up 5%; net profit soars

Business Times - 26 Jul 2011


Rickmers' Q2 DPU up 5%; net profit soars

By JOYCE HOOI

RICKMERS Maritime declared a distribution per unit (DPU) of 0.6 US cent for its second quarter ended June 30, 2011 yesterday, up 5 per cent from its DPU of 0.57 US cent in Q2 2010.

Cash flow available for distribution before payment to debt capital providers stood at US$26.5 million for the quarter, 4 per cent lower year on year. For the first six months of the year, the figure stood at US$51.4 million, a dip of 6 per cent from the corresponding period a year before.

After accounting for payment to the trust's debt capital providers, US$3.7 million was available for distribution, 70 per cent lower than US$12.2 million in Q2 last year.

For H1 2011, cash available for distribution after paying off the trust's debt capital providers was US$5.6 million, 80 per cent lower from US$27.5 million the year before.

Revenue for the quarter grew 3 per cent to US$37.6 million, driven by a better net charter rate of US$23,888 per day which the trust had secured for the Kaethe C Rickmers in late March, up from US$8,288 a day in Q2 last year.

The charter lease on the Kaethe C Rickmers expires in March next year.

For the first half of the year, revenue was flat, at US$73.4 million.

The trust's quarterly net profit surged to US$8.6 million from US$610,000 the year before, driven by a writeback of US$2.9 million on vessel impairment because of the Kaethe C Rickmers.

The trust's bottom line also fared better relative to 2010 because it had incurred a one-time loan restructuring of US$5.4 million in the second quarter of last year.

On a half-year basis, net profit for H1 2011 was US$17.9 million - almost triple that of H1 2010's net profit of US$6 million.

Currently, the trust has a fleet of 16 container ships with an average daily time charter rate of US$25,750 per vessel.

Thomas Preben Hansen, chief executive of Rickmers Trust Management Pte Ltd (RTM) - the trust's trustee manager - said that there are no current plans to add vessels to the fleet.

'We are always on the lookout, but we've really been focused on deleveraging the business,' he said.

In response to a question about whether the trust was currently able to meet its value-to-loan covenants for which it has a waiver of another one-and-a-half years, Gerard Low, RTM's chief financial officer, said that there is still uncertainty about the outlook for ship values.

'The value of the ships had stabilised in the early part of this year but as we approach this period, there has been a big increase in orders for new ships,' he said.

'The one (variable) that we can control is the loan value. As we accelerate the repayments, we know that we are bringing down the loan value.'

Last year, as part of a move to solve its funding issues, Rickmers signed a term sheet with its lending banks for a five-year extension of its US$130 million top-up loan facility. Under the terms, the criteria of the value-to-loan ratio had been waived. As a condition of the waiver, the trust's DPU is capped at 0.6 US cent per quarter.

'We are also watching this closely. When world trade is increasing and stable, the shipping capacity in under control and we have the resources, only then can we confidently say when we are ready to negotiate directly with the banks to get out of this waiver period,' said Mr Low.

The trust's counter closed half a cent higher to 41 cents in trading yesterday, before its results were released.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:26/07/11

Starhill Global REIT: A brightening star (DBSV)

Starhill Global REIT

BUY S$0.655
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.73
A brightening star
• In line with expectation; 1H DPU accounts for 49% of our forecast
• Rental reversion and stronger portfolio performance are expected to offset the vacuum for Wisma Atria AEI
• Maintain BUY, S$0.73
In line with expectation. Gross revenues and NPI were higher by 18.9% yoy and 23.4% yoy to S$44.2m and S$35.6m respectively. This was mainly attributed to new contribution from its enlarged portfolio offsetting lower earnings from negative rental reversions and weaker Japanese assets’ performances. On a q-o-q basis, gross revenue and NPI dipped marginal by 3.5% and 4.0% respectively. Distributable income (net CPPU holders) was S$20.2m (+14.3% yoy, -2.8% qoq), which translated to a DPU of 1.04 Scts. 1H forms c.49% of our full year estimates.

Operations on track. Pre-commitment of the additional prime space at the 2nd and 3rd level at Wisma Atria is well ahead of the 2Q12 completion date, with almost 75% taken up by
existing tenants and new-to-market retailers at higher rents (in excess of 50%) and the remaining 25% currently under negotiation. Meanwhile, office demand remained healthy with
office occupancy at Wisma Atria and Ngee Ann City strengthening to 92% and 96.6% respectively, and monthly signing rents at S$9.0 - S$10.0 psf per mth, up from S$8.5 –
9.0 psf a quarter. New tenants in the 1H include Chanel, H&M & Sea Folly. Going forward, additional rental revenue from the completed AEI works at Starhill Gallery, improving office occupancies and the upward rental reversion of David Jones lease in August should offset the expected erosion in retail revenue of Wisma Atria as the AEI works intensify towards 4Q11/1Q12.

Maintain BUY, TP S$0.73. The stock offers FY11/12F yields of 6.6-6.9%, translating to a total return of 19%. Gearing remains healthy at 30.9% with no major refinancing needs till
2013. DPU for FY11/12 was nudged down marginally to account for the lower occupancies at Wisma Atria retail space. Re-rating catalyst will come from potential new acquisitions that are currently not factored in our numbers.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: DBS Vickers Research
Publish date:26/07/11

Starhill Global REIT: Meeting the mark (CIMB)

Starhill Global REIT
OUTPERFORM Maintained
S$0.66 Target: S$0.74
Meeting the mark
• In line; maintain Outperform. 2Q11 DPU of 1.04cts (+14% yoy) meets our estimate and consensus, at 25% of our full-year number. 1H11 DPU forms 50% of our forecast, Positives were improving occupancy and achieved rents for its office portfolio though rental reversions were expectedly negative. Starhill has secured 75% pre-commitments with good reversions for space under AEI in Wisma Atria and could beat its ROI target of 8%. Legal proceedings against Toshin are still ongoing. We continue to like the stability afforded by its master and long leases, low asset leverage and well-located assets. Downside should be limited by current valuations of 0.7x P/BV and forward yields of 6.5%, the highest for retail REITs while re-rating catalysts could come from improving office occupancy, positive rental reviews for Toshin leases, higher-than-expected returns from AEI and accretive acquisitions. No change to our DPU estimates or DDM target price of S$0.74 (discount rate 8.4%).

• Improving occupancy. Continued negative rental reversions for offices were mitigated by improving occupancy at both Wisma Atria and Ngee Ann City, where occupancy improved qoq by 1.7% pts and 1.2% pts respectively. Demand for office space by fashion and other retailers remained healthy, with leases signed at S$9- 10.50psf. With rents picking up, management expects negative rental reversions to stabilise by 3Q-4Q12.

• AEI at Wisma Atria well-received. Starhill has secured 75% pre-commitments, with good reversions for space under AEI in Wisma and appears on track to beat its ROI target of 8%. Its AEI has been well-received and aided in rental negotiations and reversions for nearby leases. The worst-hit quarters should be 4Q11 and 1Q12, though work disruptions could be minimised by a 2-phase TOP and the relocation of tenants to temporary holding units. With the bottoming out of prime retail rentals, Starhill appears poised to capture rental upside on completion of the AEI in 3Q12.

• Rent reviews for 2011 underway. Legal proceedings between Starhill and Toshin over a rental review mechanism for the Toshin lease are ongoing. Rental step-up of about 6.1% on its David Jones long lease will kick in in Aug 11.

Update on overseas assets. No structural damages have been found at its Japanese properties after the earthquake. While NPI from these assets had fallen 28% yoy on lower occupancy, their NPI contributions remained low at 4% and management notes a pick-up in sentiment in recent months. Renhe Spring Zongbei in Chengdu continued to deliver good NPI growth of 17% on topline growth and expense control though growth was partly tempered by a stronger S$.

Asset leverage remained low at 30%. This still leaves Starhill with debt headroom of S$450m before hitting a gearing of 40%. Management remains on the lookout for opportunistic purchases locally and overseas, though it notes compressed cap rates for retail assets locally and in Tier-1 cities overseas. Potential overseas markets are Tier-2 cities in China. Refinancing risks are low given minimal debt maturities in 2011 and 2012.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CIMB Research
Publish date:26/07/11

Coastal: Moving up the value chain (Hwang)

Coastal Contracts
BUY RM2.50
Price Target : 12-Month RM 3.90

Moving up the value chain
• Focusing on building high-margin vessels
• Catalyst is progress at Sabah deepwater field
• Reiterate Buy with RM3.90 TP (56% upside)

Moving up the value chain. There is potential for a greater inflow of vessel sales orders in the near term for Coastal based on a positive O&G climate. We understand that the group has intentions of building higher value offshore support vessels (OSV) that would prove lucrative if constructed and subsequently completed. We also believe that the group recently quoted orders amounting to RM200m to a few Malaysian players that would take MoUs in the pipeline to c. RM500m, if successful. Its current outstanding
order book stands at c. RM500m as at 2Q11, that would stretch till 1Q12. Coastal also recently secured an order for an SP2-enabled maintenance/support vessel (and 2 barges) worth RM98m. We believe this maintenance/support vessel is a testament to the group moving up the value chain considering the deep sea capabilities the vessel has compared to a conventional anchor handling tug (AHT) and tug and barge.

Fabrication jobs a catalyst. Sabah’s Kikeh deepwater field is up and running with the Gumusut/Kakap field scheduled to start production at end-2011. The state’s potential to produce 25% of Malaysia’s 660,000 barrels/day oil production and Coastal’s exclusivity as the only Sabahan yard (52 acres available) with fabrication facilities should net it repair and maintenance jobs when oil platforms are commissioned. We understand its OSV chartering segment is in progress with bareboat charters a possible strategy to avoid cannibalising its vessel building segment.

Reiterate Buy, RM3.90 TP offers 56% upside. The stock has recently recovered from a share price drop, and we expect some upside on a strong set of 2Q11 results. At FY12 EPS of 48.9 sen (PE of 5.2x), Coastal is trading at attractive 72% and 65% discount to local (18.6x) and regional peers (14.7x), respectively.

Positive Outlook
OSV supply glut overplayed. Clarkson’s research report noted that the average age of AHTS and AHTs (below 8,000BHP) globally is 19 years, with 53% of the total 2,142 vessels built from 1980 onwards being over 20 years old. Given that oil majors currently cap their OSV age limit at 16 years, there is a large market for vessel builders to replace obsolete, aging assets. Moreover, Coastal’s expertise in building a diverse range of vessels mitigates its exposure to this perceived supply glut in the 5,000BHP range AHT/AHTS. This is evident in its recently secured order for an SP2- enabled maintenance/support vessel and two barges worth RM98m, as reported on 14 July 2011.

Enough to go around. We understand that despite potent competition from local peers, it is still reined in by capital constraints at individual shipyards. Further, Coastal’s business model - outsourcing to Chinese shipyards under 12- 18 month fixed cost contracts - ensures minimal capital expenditure by contracting with more shipyards if it needs additional capacity.

Coastal’s China-based outsourced shipyards are mostly stateowned with little expenditure on mediation, unlike larger companies such as Cosco. As such, Coastal’s 85%-
international client base (majority are service providers) will face difficulty in liaising with them in terms of language barriers and cultural differences. The group’s role as an
intermediary ensures timely and efficient order-to-delivery of vessels.

OSV chartering segment. Coastal’s OSV Chartering segment (separate from its tug & barge chartering segment) is still in its infancy, with only a team performing market research on the business environment. Coastal does not currently own any OSVs for charter, although unsold vessels will likely be absorbed. However, the main issue with Coastal’s plan to derive recurring income from OSV chartering would be cannibalisation of its vessel building segment via competition with vessel buyers (who are mostly O&G service providers). A possible solution would be bareboat chartering, but we understand that discussions are still ongoing.

Warrants and bonus Issue. Coastal’s 1-for-3 bonus issue has gone ex- and the additional 120.8m shares were listed on 19 Jul 2011. Subsequently, the group has issued free warrants on 1-for-8 basis (up to 60.4m warrants or 12.5% of total paid-up capital) at an exercise price of RM3.18 per warrant on 25 July 2011. Fully diluted, Coastal would have a 543m share base. The warrants’ exercise price is at 27% premium to the current share price of RM2.50– or out of the money -, and as such, we do not expect these warrants to be exercised in the near term. Consequently, there is little risk of share dilution in the near term, and we did not dilute out forecast earnings.

2Q11 results to remain steady. We expect Coastal to register strong 2Q11 result, similar to 1Q11 result. Margins are expected to remain at c.30% based on expected delivery of similar vessel mix (barges) as well as higher-margin OSVs. Net profit should be flat q-o-q, but on track to meet our FY11F net profit of RM204m.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: HWANGDBS Vickers Research
Publish date:26/07/11

KNM: Participating in a US$5.7bn project in Johor (ecm)

KNM
12-month upside potential
Target price 2.25
Current price (as at 25 Jul) 1.75
52-week range (RM) 1.58 – 3.19

Participating in a US$5.7bn project in Johor
KNM Group surprised us with the extent of their participation in the RAPID project in Johor. From the developments intended, KNM will be participating in EPC work while holding equity stakes and also get recurring income from O&M. As such, we upgrade the stock to a Trading Buy from a Hold as this project could show positive results.
However, we caution that KNM has an existing orderbook of RM5.4bn that has yet to yield steady profits.

News
_ KNM Group together with Zecon Bhd yesterday entered into a heads of agreement (HoA) with Gulf Asian Petroleum (GAP) to (1) undertake the EPC for a petroleum refinery & polypropylene plant worth RM15bn (2) undertake the EPC for a petroleum product storage facility with a contract value of RM2.0bn.

_ For the refinery & petrochemical project, KNM will form a consortium with Zecon and a Korean/Chinese party. The consortium will take up to a 20% equity stake in GAP worth RM540m. This project will be 30% equity funded and the remainder through debt. 40 months to complete from the financial close date.

_ For the storage terminal project, KNM will form a consortium with Zecon only. The consortium will form a SPV of which KNM intends to take a 30% stake. Further to this, GAP has already entered into HoA’s with off-takers for the storage terminal and a JV company will be formed with KNM to undertake O&M of the facility for 25 years. Financial close is expected in 3 months of which the project will then start immediately spanning 18 months. GAP will arrange for financial guarantee of RM1.5bn during construction (which will be converted into a sukuk which KNM is arranging) and also provide a RM300m facilitation fund.

Comments
_ Participation in the RAPID project has been talked about by KNM and it’s a positive surprise to see the extent of the group’s involvement in the project.

_ From the announcement, it’s clear that KNM has a bigger role to play in the storage terminal and jetty project than the petrochemical project at this point. The 25 year O&M agreement will see much needed recurring income for the Group.

_ With commencement in 3 months, the project should contribute FY12 onwards and we will follow up with management on earnings recognition expectations.

_ A concern that we have at this juncture is that KNM may have too much on their plate and as such, this may hurt their project execution capabilities and hence margins. As it is, their orderbook amounts to RM5.4bn and projects in Uzbekistan and UK have only just taken off. Furthermore, we estimate that the group has some RM1bn of older orders to clear off that was accumulated over FY10.

_ We will not be making any changes to our earnings just yet given our lack of clarity on profitability of existing and oncoming projects like this one for RAPID.

Valuation and recommendation
_ KNM’s share price should have a positive reaction to this news and the project could indeed yield good profits for the group after they clear off older orders and they turn margins around with better utilisation and also project management.

_ As such, we are upgrading KNM to Trading Buy from Hold. We roll over our valuation from FYE11 EPS to 2HFY11-1HFY12 EPS of 15sen. Pegging this to a 15x market PE derives our new TP of RM2.25 (RM1.68 previously).

Details of the project
Refinery/Polypropylene Project - To undertake a Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Commissioning (EPC) contract for a 150,000/200,000 bpd petroleum refinery and 400,000/525,000 mtpa polypropylene unit for GAP with a total project value of USD5.0bn (equivalent to about RM15.0bn based on the exchange rate of USD1.00 : RM3.00) Storage project - to undertake a EPC contract for a petroleum product storage terminal facility comprising 4 terminals with a total storage capacity of 2.328m cubic meters, complete with supporting infrastructure and auxiliaries including the jetty with a total contract value of RM2.0bn.

Information on Gulf Asia Petroleum
GAP is owned 50% by Mubadala Capital Sdn Bhd (MCSB) and 50% by Mr. Abdul Aziz Hamad Al- Dulaimi (AAHD). GAP is established to build and operate an Integrated Petroleum Complex that consists of the said Refinery Project and Storage Project located at Teluk Ramunia, Johor. GAP had on 30 April 2010, obtained an approval from the Malaysian Industrial Development Authority (MIDA) for the manufacturing license for the integrated petro-chemical plant. MCSB’s controlling shareholder is Datuk Hj Zainal Abidin Bin Hj Ahmad. Datuk Zainal is the Group MD / CEO and controlling shareholder of Zecon.

Mr Abdul Aziz has 18 years of experience at Qatar General Petroleum Corp (QGPC), the Qatar national oil corporation. Before his departure in 1994, he had been the Executive Manager for the integrated body of QGPC’s Onshore & Offshore Operations. He is currently the President of Gulf Petroleum Limited, an integrated oil and gas group based in Doha, Qatar whose shareholders include the Qatar General Insurance and Reinsurance Company, Al-Mana Group, National Petroleum Group and the banking arm of Al-Sari Group.

Terms of the Heads of Agreement – Refinery & Petrochemical project
i. KNM together with Zecon and/or a Korean/Chinese contractor shall form a consortium to undertake the EPC Contract
ii. The EPC Consortium will take up to 20% equity in GAP estimated at USD180m (equivalent to about RM540m based on the exchange rate of USD1.00 : RM3.00).
iii. The Project will be funded by 30% equity and the balance will be funded through Project Financing using Export Credit Agencies and/or other financial instruments including Sukuk issuance
iv. The Parties agreed to finalise the EPC Contract within three (3) months of the HOA and subject to financial close.
v. The Parties target to complete the Project within 40 months from financial close.
vi. The Parties have agreed not to be liable to each other for any loss or damages in the performance of this HOA.

Terms of the Heads of Agreement – Storage project
i. KNM will form a consortium with Zecon to undertake the EPC Contract of about RM2.0bn
ii. The Parties agreed to form a Special Purpose Vehicle to undertake the project, whereby, KNM intends to subscribe for up to 30% of the equity structure of the SPV. The balance shall be held by GAP and/or its nominated parties. The estimated equity value for the SPV Company is RM200m.
iii. KNM shall be entitled for Board Member seats proportional to its equity participation.
iv. GAP has entered into HOAs with international suppliers of crude oil and petroleum products subject to financial close for the supply and off-take agreements.
v. KNM and GAP shall form a joint venture company to undertake the operation and maintenance of the facilities upon Project completion for period of 25 years with the first five (5) years having a reputable operator as its partner.
vi. The Parties agreed to commence preliminary works for the Project development immediately upon this Agreement with the target to achieve financial close within three (3) months and completion of total project 18 months after financial close.
vii. The Parties agreed that GAP will arrange for financial guarantee from a local investment fund for up to RM1.5bn during the construction period to be converted into long term loan thereafter and a facilitation fund of up to RM300m while KNM will arrange a Sukuk issuance of up to RM1.5bn to cover project financing during construction.

Johor state government will also have a stake
The Johor State Government has approved 650 acres of land in Teluk Ramunia for the Projects and GAP is in discussion with the State Government for its equity participation which has yet to be finalized.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: ECM Libra Capital
Publish date:26/07/11

KNM: Potential mega contract win (Hwang)

KNM Group
BUY RM1.75

Price Target : 12-Month RM 3.35
Potential mega contract win
• Exploring RM17bn projects in Teluk Ramunia
• Order book may swell to RM14bn, underpin longterm earnings visibility
• Maintain BUY with RM3.35 TP (91% upside)

Potential contracts worth RM17bn. Gulf Asian Petroleum (GAP), licensed by the government to build and operate the integrated petrochemical complex in Teluk Ramunia, has agreed at the Heads of Agreements announced yesterday to appoint the KNM-Zecon consortium to undertake EPC contracts for: (i) a petroleum refinery and a polypropylene unit, estimated at RM15bn; and (ii) petroleum product storage terminal facility, worth RM2bn. The consortium will also rope in another Korean/Chinese contractor to take up 20% stake in GAP estimated at RM540m for the Refinery Project while KNM and Zecon will subscribe for up to 30% equity for a SPV (estimated at RM200m) for the Storage Project.

Strong catalyst. This will be the single largest contract ever for KNM, boosting its order backlog to RM14bn (assuming 50% stake in the consortium). KNM and GAP will also undertake to operate and maintain the Storage Project for 25 years upon completion, which will provide a recurrent income stream for KNM. The two projects are subject to financial close, and the Refinery Project and the Storage Project will be completed within 40 months and 18 months, respectively. The Refinery Project will be funded by 30% equity, with the balance through project financing while for the Storage Project, KNM will issue Islamic bonds of up to RM1.5bn.

Risk factors. We retain our earnings forecast for now, pending further progress on the agreements. There is no breakdown on the consortium equity structure, but assuming 50% of the consortium’s intended stake (20% in Refinery Project, 30% in Storage project), we expect KNM to fork out RM3bn for both projects, which will increase its net gearing to 2x (from 0.3x). Project financing for the projects will be critical given the huge amount involved. There may be a positive knee-jerk reaction. However, a sustainable rise in share price will hinge on more clarity on the project.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: HWANGDBS Vickers Research
Publish date:26/07/11

流通率急挫‧市值增長放緩‧馬股暴跌壓力減輕

流通率急挫‧市值增長放緩‧馬股暴跌壓力減輕
Created 07/26/2011 - 11:20

(吉隆坡25日訊)外圍經濟“計時炸彈”四面埋伏,令馬股6至7月的市場流通率(Velocity)元氣大傷,7月6日挫至19%低點,自此僅在中位數約29%中徘徊,儘管如此,因市值仍增長,分析員相信市場未面臨“路障”,預見市場迷霧將逐漸消失並帶動馬股士氣。

興業研究在2月表示,馬股料在40%以上的流通率支撐,但6至7月的市場流通率卻已節節敗退。

儘管外圍宏觀經濟隱憂,興業認為,市場流通率由交易與市場價值主導,6至7月平均交易值自去年杪挫16%,但市值卻在同期躍升約4.7%,即使排除大馬糖廠(MSM, 5202, 主板消費品組)與阿瑪達(ARMADA, 5210, 主板貿服組)新上市後。

“這意味市場未‘碰壁’,而投資者也未倉促售股。”

值得一提的是,交易量在7月21日節節上升,部份歸功於阿瑪達的上市,加上美國與歐洲20日強勁的市場表現。

木材和媒體
表現超越大市

木材與媒體領域年初迄今表現超越大市,然而,上兩個月已面臨壓力,興業相信,這兩大領域的未來表現“分歧”,木材業有望續從日本重建開銷中受惠,但媒體股可能黯然失色,主要是市場目光已自回酬股中轉移焦點。

年初迄今與兩個月中超越大市的領域為電訊與銀行,而公用事業與科技領域卻落後大市,興業相信,這趨勢可能在未來數月延續,惟科技股有望在第四季中盼到“轉折點”,因庫存耗儘後,加上銷售開始抬頭。

另外,高達5項油氣股打入年初迄今超越大市的首20隻股的龍虎榜內,但科恩馬集團(KNM, 7164, 主板工業產品組)與柏達納石油(PERDANA, 7108, 主板貿服組)兩大油氣股落後大市,卻沖淡了油氣股動力。

油氣岸外活動續看漲

興業預見,油氣岸外活動持續看漲,並將引領船艦與下游業者,在未來6至12個月加強表現。

興業預計,部份領域在本季捎來令人失望的“成績單”,尤其汽車、科技與教育,原因為供應鏈受干擾、科技需求與供應鏈中斷、學生入學展延。

興業也發現,投資者對一些風險“加碼”,如市面上懸而未決的併購案、專利權的更新、經濟轉型計劃的執行。

上述併購大計包括肯油企業(KENCANA, 5122, 主板貿服組)與沙布拉浪峰(SAPCRES, 8575, 主板貿服組)合併、水務與商業高峰(PUNCAK, 6807, 主板基建計劃組)重組、合成實業(CIHLDG, 2828, 主板消費品組)脫售Permanis股權。

輝百集團(FABER, 1368, 主板貿服組)為特許權需更新的主要受惠公司,而經濟轉型計劃的執行將影響金務大(GAMUDA, 5398, 主板建筑組)、馬資源(MRCB, 1651, 主板建筑組)與UEM置地(UEMLAND, 5148, 主板產業組)。

歐美中放緩
資金轉向東南亞

自4月杪經濟成長放緩並打擊企業盈利,全球已蒸發多達2兆美元的股票市值,惟歐美與中國經濟成長步履蹣跚,卻可能為東南亞帶來“曙光”,帶動區域資金流向資源豐富的東南亞國家,包括大馬。

MIDF研究因而維持馬股年杪目標1650點,但預見市場震盪度在未來數月增加,因下半年一般潛存下探驚喜與顯著的市場調整。

三大經濟體面臨挑戰下,MIDF研究預見,大馬與其他東南亞資源豐富的國家,如印尼與菲律賓,有望隨資金自中國與亞洲四小龍轉向東南亞中受惠,令東南亞市場“超越大市”。

中國上海、香港與台灣股市,自4月杪已各挫4.5、7.6與4.2%,反觀,大馬、印尼、菲律賓股市,卻在同期各走高0.8、6.7與3.9%。

MIDF研究認為,下半年走勢將與以往一樣,面臨一些“挫折”,市場在7月與8月,將專注6月季度的企業盈利表現。



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 星洲日報
Publish date:26/07/11

NOL – Expect higher losses for 2Q11 (DBSV)

NOL – Expect higher losses for 2Q11 as a result of weaker rates data.

NOL’s average revenue per FEU for Period 6 slid further down 2% compared to Period 5 and was down 13% y-o-y. This indicates that in addition to the continuing weakness on the Asia-Europe trade lane, Transpacific rates are also down y-o-y, probably to the tune of 5-10%. Average freight rates for NOL in 2Q11 stood at about US$2,540, according to our analyst’s estimate, down about 2.3% compared to 1Q11. Container volumes of 232,700 FEUs was up 5% y-o-y and 2% m-o-m on the back of sustained higher trade volumes on the Intra- Asia trades. As highlighted earlier, NOL should be reporting earnings going deeper into the red in 2Q11.

Given the slightly weaker than expected rates data for Period 6, the loss could be higher than we had earlier estimated and could be close to US$50m in 2Q11. Thus, there could be potential downside to our current earnings estimates and we will review our numbers in greater detail after NOL reports 2Q11 results on 12th August. Maintain FULLY VALUED, with TP of S$1.25.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts:DBS Vickers Research
Publish date:26/07/11

Axis REIT: 1H11 results in line (Hwang)

Axis REIT
1H11 results in line
BUY RM2.62
Price Target : RM 2.90 (Prev RM 2.90)
At a Glance
• 1H11 results in line
• 2Q11 DPU of 4.5sen was 12.5% higher y-o-y
• Maintain Buy with RM2.90 TP (+18% upside incl 7% dividend yield)

Comment on Results
Gross rental income increased 35% y-o-y (+4% q-o-q) on the back of completion of acquisition of Axis Eureka in Cyberjaya. The company incurred a disposal loss of RM0.26m from its logistics warehouse in Klang – Axis Northport LC1 – though this was before realisation of fair value gain of RM1.04m. With realisation of this sum, the disposal would create a net increase in realised income of RM0.78m. Core net income for 1H11 was RM32.3m, 49.8% of our forecasted FY11 earnings. 2Q11 DPU was 12.5% higher at 4.5 sen per unit vs 4.0 sen per unit in 2Q10, bringing 1H11 DPU to 8.7 sen per unit, within expectations.

Axis REIT incurred RM3.1m for refurbishment of Menara Axis and Crystal Plaza. This should translate to an increase in property value upon revaluation in the near term and subsequently higher net income down the line from changes in fair value of the 2 properties.

Axis REIT announced on 1 July 2011 that Bursa Malaysia has approved the listing and quotation for up to 165.4m new units on the Main Market. If this were approved at the unitholders’ meeting on 26 July 2011, and all available units were issued, Axis REIT would raise c. RM430m assuming an issue price of RM2.60.

Recommendation
We maintain our Buy call with RM2.90 TP based on DCF, underpinned by Axis REIT’s consistent track record in acquiring yield-accretive properties. We forecast 7% dividend yield for FY11, providing a total upside of 18% to RM2.90 TP.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: HWANGDBS Vickers Research
Publish date:26/07/11

Axis REIT: 2QFY11: Stronger 2H expected (Ecm)

Axis REIT
Buy
12-month upside potential
Target price 2.90
Current price (as at 25 July) 2.62
Capital upside (%) 10.7

2QFY11: Stronger 2H expected
Axis REIT’s 6MFY11 adjusted net profit of RM31.8m came in within expectations and was 33.4% higher due to acquisition of new properties and positive rental reversion. Axis has also announced a DPU of 4.50 sen. Maintain Buy with target price of RM2.90 which implies a FY11 net yield of 6.4%. Key catalyst is the potential acquisition of identified properties worth RM0.4bn which will boost total assets by 35% to RM1.7bn.

Results highlights
_ Axis REIT’s 6MFY11 adjusted net profit of RM31.8m made up 45% and 46% of house and consensus full-year estimates respectively. We deem results within expectations as we expect 2HFY11 results to be stronger with the completion of new acquisitions.

_ 6MFY11 revenue of RM55.7m was 36.2% higher mainly due to acquisition of new properties and positive rental reversion during the period. Reported net profit of RM32.3m was 10.6% lower due to (1) fair value adjustments in FY10, and (2) higher financing costs and manager’s fees in FY11. Excluding fair value adjustments, adjusted net profit of RM31.8m was 33.4% higher.

_ A second interim distribution of 4.5 sen was declared, bringing YTD distribution per unit (DPU) to 8.7 sen (6MFY10: 7.7 sen) which represents more than 100% of realised earnings per unit (EPU) of 8.5 sen.

_ The second interim distribution includes a non-taxable portion of approximately 0.25 sen per unit derived from utilisation of capital allowances and distribution on net gain on disposal of Axis North Port LC 1 which is not subject to tax.

Changes to properties under management
_ During the quarter under review, Axis-REIT had acquired a new property i.e. Axis Eureka (Cyberjaya property) and had also disposed of one property i.e. Axis North Port LC 1. With the completion of both these exercises, there was no change to the total number of properties (27 properties) held by Axis-REIT.

Impact on estimates
_ We maintain our earnings estimate.

Impact on valuation and recommendation
_ Maintain our BUY recommendation on Axis REIT with target price of RM2.90 (derived from the Gordon Growth Model).

_ Our target price implies a FY11 P/BV of 1.6x and distribution yield of 6.4%.

_ Axis REIT remains as our preferred play on investment properties in Malaysia as well as a preferred buy-and-hold investment vehicle under coverage.

_ Key catalyst is the potential acquisition of identified properties worth RM0.4bn, which will boost total assets by 35% to RM1.7bn.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: ECM Libra Capital
Publish date:26/07/11

Axis REIT: Results in line; more acquisitions soon (MIB)

Axis REIT
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: RM2.62
Target price: RM2.75 (from RM2.60)

Results in line; more acquisitions soon
Maintain Buy. AXRB’s RM31.8m 1H11 core net profit (+33% YoY) came in as expected. Its 4.5 sen 2Q11 DPU was also in line. Share price has performed well thanks to a switch in preference to defensive stocks. No change in our earnings forecasts but we raise our TP to RM2.75 (+15 sen) as we roll over our base year to 2012. A lower beta assumption has also contributed to the upgrade in TP. With a 12% total return, AXRB remains as our top pick for the M-REITs sector.

Driven by new assets. 2Q realised net profit growth of +29% YoY was mainly due to full year contributions from properties acquired in 2010 and PTP D8 Johor (Mar ’11) and Axis Eureka in Cyberjaya (Apr ’11). However, 2Q core net profit contracted by 3.8% QoQ mainly due to higher interest expense arising from Axis Eureka acquisition. AXRB’s gearing ratio stood at 0.38x (2Q11) vs. 0.36x (1Q11). It declared a 4.5sen DPU, bringing up YTD DPU to 8.5sen (+13% YoY); in line.

New unit placement to retain financial flexibility. Its 0.38x gearing ratio implies a limited RM50m new loan capacity before reaching its 0.4x gearing target. To retain its financial flexibility, AXRB proposed up to 75.2m new unit placement (20% of existing 375.9m units) in Feb ’11, which is currently pending unitholders’ approvals. We expect gearing to improve to 0.23-0.24x (or RM370m new debt capacity) post-placement (RM187m proceeds; assuming RM2.49 issue price; 5% discount).

Expect more acquisitions to come. AXRB normally time its yield accretive acquisitions with placements to lower the dilutive impact (e.17% to EPU). It has identified RM426m worth of properties from both private equity fund and third parties (see Table 2). It targets to hit RM1.5b asset size by end-2011 versus RM1.2b now.

Premium valuations justified. There has been a surge in interests on defensive stocks like REITs recently given the volatile equity market. AXRB, which hit a 12-month high yesterday, is currently trading at 7.1% 2012 yield, compared to 8% industry average. The premium is justified due to its hands-on management and proven track record in yield accretive acquisitions, which are value enhancing.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Maybank IB Research
Publish date:26/07/11

Starhill Global REIT's Q2 property income up 23.4%

10:55 PM
Jul 25, 2011
SINGAPORE - Mainboard-listed Starhill Global REIT reported on Monday its net property income for the second quarter rose by 23.4 per cent from the corresponding period a year earlier to S$35.6 million.

Starhill Reit, which invests primarily in real estate used for retail and office purposes in Singapore and overseas, attributed its performance to contributions from Starhill Gallery and Lot 10 in Malaysia.

Revenue for the three months ended June was S$44.2 million, 18.9 per cent higher than the same period last year.

Starhill Reit's Singapore portfolio, comprising interests in Wisma Atria and Ngee Ann City, contributed 62 per cent, or S$27.5 million, of the total revenue. However, the Singapore portfolio's net property income for the quarter was S$21.5 million, 3.3 per cent lower year-on-year.

The company added that while the take-up rate for office space in Singapore has been healthy, overall rental rates have declined as new and renewed office leases were secured at rates below the peak levels achieved in 2007.

Income to be distributed to unitholders in the quarter was S$20.2 million, an increase of 14.3 per cent from a year earlier. Distribution per unit (DPU) for the three months ended June was 1.04 cents, 14.3 per cent higher compared to the 0.91 cent achieved for the previous corresponding period. Unitholders can expect to receive their second-quarter DPU on Aug 29.

As of June 30, Starhill Reit's outstanding debt was S$838.6 million, with a weighted debt maturity of about 2.6 years. Its gearing level remained at 30.2 per cent and its interest coverage ratio stood at 4.4 times for the quarter.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: TODAYonline
Publish date:26/07/11

Greece bailout implies default: Moody's

by Dow Jones
04:46 AM Jul 26, 2011
LONDON - Moody's Investors Service yesterday slashed the Greek government's debt ratings three notches deeper into junk territory, warning that the nation's newest bailout deal implies a temporary sovereign default and sets a negative precedent in the 17-country euro zone.

European Union leaders last week agreed to another €109 billion (S$189 billion) in official financing for Greece, combined with €37 billion from the private sector to roll over maturing debt.

Moody's said the programme indicated that the likelihood of a distressed debt exchange and a default on Greek government bonds was virtually 100 per cent. The ratings agency also raised the likelihood that private creditors will suffer "substantial losses" on their holdings of Greek government debt.

The credit rating agency cut Greece's foreign- and local-currency bond ratings to Ca from Caa1, assigning them a developing outlook due to uncertainty over the exact market value of the securities that creditors will receive in a debt exchange.

"After an exchange, we'll do a fundamental analysis of Greece's securities ... and consider the risk of a re-default," said Ms Sarah Carlson, vice-president-senior analyst of sovereign risk group at Moody's.

"It's our experience, if you look back at history, that sovereigns that default will often default again," she said.

Unlike the other two major credit rating agencies, Moody's does not have a D rating. The latest move to Ca leaves Greece one notch from Moody's lowest rating, C.

"Looking further ahead, the EU programme and proposed debt exchanges will increase the likelihood that Greece will be able to stabilise and eventually reduce its overall debt burden," the Moody's report said.

It added that Greece's support package would also benefit other members of the euro zone by curbing the severe risk of near-term contagion that would probably have resulted from a disorderly payment default or large haircut on outstanding Greek debt.

Other positive effects include a short-term boost to market sentiment, new tools to help stabilise sovereign debt prices and a lower interest rate on European Financial Stability Fund funding.

"However, Greece will still face medium-term solvency challenges: Its stock of debt will still be well in excess of 100 per cent of GDP (gross domestic product) for many years and it will still face very significant implementation risks to fiscal and economic reform," Moody's said.

And for euro-zone sovereigns that are not rated Aaa, "the negatives will outweigh the positives and weigh on ratings in the future", Moody's wrote.

The Greek package sets a negative precedent for future restructurings that will weigh on the credit ratings of other sovereigns with fiscal problems, Moody's said.

The Greek deal is good news in at least one sense for Ireland and Portugal, which will pay lower interest rates going forward, Moody's said. The agency cautioned that this positive effect is offset by the precedent for future debt deals for weaker euro-zone members.

Fitch Ratings on Friday became the first major ratings company to say that a new aid package for Greece will put the country in "restricted default" and that ratings of other peripheral euro-zone countries will also be affected.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts:TODAYonline
Publish date:26/07/11

Reits show the way as Q2 earnings reports look healthy

Business Times - 25 Jul 2011

Reits show the way as Q2 earnings reports look healthy
Profit up 8.9% at 23 companies that have reported so far; only one firm posts loss
By JAMIE LEE
NET profit for the 23 companies that have reported their second quarter results so far is a combined $1.13 billion, up 8.9 per cent over the same period a year ago, data compiled by The Business Times showed.
The scorecard took into account the quarterly distributable profits of most real estate investment trusts (Reits), and excluded one company that did not have a year-on-year profit comparison.
Of the 24 companies in total that reported their half-year results by last Friday evening, just one - China Enersave - posted a loss in the second quarter.
None of the 23 companies that were in the black had reversed from a loss-making position from last year, and more than three-quarters of these companies - or 18 of them - did better by ushering in higher profits.
Ascott Residence Trust, for example, pulled in strong numbers.
Its distributable income for the three months ended June more than doubled to $26.3 million, from $11.6 million previously - thanks to additional revenue from 28 properties in Singapore, Vietnam and Europe that were acquired in October last year. Its quarterly revenue surged 64.5 per cent to $73.1 million.
Ascott Reit is targeted to hit DPU growth of 8 per cent in 2011 - one of the strongest DPU among the Singapore Reits, said DBS Vickers Securities in a recent note.
Its London properties could be the best performer in its portfolio this year after its planned refurbishment in preparation for the London Olympics in 2012, the brokerage added.
First Reit, Singapore's first healthcare Reit, posted an 86.5 per cent jump in its distributable profit to $9.89 million over the year for the second quarter.
This was also boosted by stronger revenue from the acquisition of two Indonesian hospitals, Mochtar Riady Comprehensive Cancer Centre and Siloam Hospitals Lippo Cikarang, last December. Its revenue for the three months ended June rose 75.3 per cent to $13.2 million over the year.
Starhill Global Reit, Treasury China Trust, CDL Hospitality Trusts and Sabana Shari'ah Compliant Reit are expected to report their results this week.
CapitaMalls Asia - which is not a Reit - posted a doubling of its net profit to $165 million compared to a restated $82.1 million registered in the same period a year ago, thanks to higher revaluation gains.
Revenue, however, fell 13.9 per cent year-on-year to $62.8 million, due mainly to the divestment of three malls in Malaysia to CapitaMalls Malaysia Trust, and Clarke Quay to CapitaMall Trust in July last year.
Keppel Corporation impressed analysts with its second quarter results. The 9.3 per cent increase in net profit to $385 million from a restated $352.3 million was boosted by a strong operating margin from the offshore segment of 24 per cent.
This compared with the average margins of 20 per cent seen last year, DMG & Partners Securities said in a recent report.
'Management also attributed the strong margins to several rig repair jobs and completion of a rig project taken from a Chinese yard,' DMG added.
'Keppel is in a good position to cherry pick high margin projects as its yard order book is sufficiently filled for the next couple of years.'
Keppel's turnover, however, dipped 3.7 per cent from a restated $2.38 billion to $2.29 billion, due to lower revenue from its offshore and marine, and property divisions.
For the first six months, total profits for 24 companies that have comparative numbers stood at $2.1 billion, up 8.7 per cent over the same period a year ago.




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:25/07/11

Monday, July 25, 2011

CIT: 2Q11 results (DMG)

Cambridge Industrial Trust (BUY, TP S$0.595)
19 Jul 11

Industrial REIT whose portfolio consists of 43 industrial properties valued at S$900m, located across Singapore.
Reason for report: 2Q11 results
Key points: 1) Cambridge Industrial Trust (CIT) reported a lower DPU of 1.036S¢ in 2Q11 (-16.3% YoY; +3.5% QoQ) due to enlargement of share base as a result of rights issue undertaken in Apr 2011. Net property income rose 4.9% YoY to S$16.9m (+2.0% QoQ) on the back of higher rental income partially offset by loss of income from divested strata units. Separately, CIT has concluded three acquisitions, which it announced previously, in Jun-Jul 2011. Hence, we expect CIT’s DPU to pick up in 2H11. However, there remains an acquisition with purchase price of S$41m that has yet to be completed. Given that it is unlikely the outstanding acquisition will be completed in 3Q11, we lowered our FY11DPU estimate by 1.5% to account for the expected completion of the acquisition only in early 4Q11.

Valuation: Rolling forward our DDM valuation, we raised our TP marginally to S$0.595 (COE: 10.1%, TGR: 1.0%). Maintain BUY.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: DMG Research
Publish date:25/07/11

Risk-off’ recently (DBSV)

MAS raises 2011 inflation forecast and warns of risk to 5- 7% GDP growth
MAS raised its inflation forecast for 2011 to 4-5% from 3- 4% last week due to higher-than-expected increases in accommodation and private road transport costs such as the rapid rise in COE premiums. Core inflation, which excludes price changes in areas influenced by government policy such as private road transport and accommodation costs, remains unchanged at 2-3% for 2011. MAS also added that the current stance of appreciating the SGD policy band “remains appropriate” because a stronger Singapore dollar has not just helped filter oil and food price increases but also provide a restraining effect on the economy.

It also warned of downside risks to its economic growth outlook of 5-7% for 2011 but keeps the official growth forecast. If the anticipated 2H growth pickup is weaker than currently expected, Singapore’s growth could come in at the lower half of the 2011 forecast.

MAS’s upward revision of the inflation rate brings the official forecast closer to our Singapore economist’s longheld forecast of 4.2% for 2011. Nonetheless, June’s CPI figure due today can surprise with a spike up to about 5.4% based on our economist’s estimation. With the price of rice expected to trend higher following recent policy measures announced by the Thailand government and wages underpinned by a tight labour market, inflation pressure could stay stubborn. Our economist maintains his view that MAS will continue its current gradual appreciation stance in the upcoming meeting. A tough decision for MAS lays ahead at the next monetary policy meeting in October as it faces the dilemma between strengthening the SGD to curb inflation and hurting economic growth.

‘Risk-off’ recently
While macro uncertainties hindered the performance of risky assets such as equities (i.e. risk-off) for most of 2Q, there seems to be a return to take on risk (i.e. risk-on) from mid- June. Using the STI as a benchmark measurement for Singapore equities, the index had fallen 190pts off the 2Q high-pt of 3195 and touched a low of 3005 on June 17. Since then, STI has recovered almost all of that loss. STI’s behaviour in the past 2 months is certainly well within our expectations. Recall our Weekly Focus dated 13 June, we had encouraged our readers to turn buyer when the STI falls to near 2980. We had cited valuations and a 2H GDP recovery as the reasons for turning positive at that level.

The triggers for the recent equity markets rally are a positive start to the earnings season, reasonably attractive valuation and an easing of the sovereign debt worries from Europe. In US, bellwether companies that span various industries from technology, healthcare and financials such as Apple, eBay, Intel, Johnson & Johnson and American Express reported better-than-expected earnings. There was also disappointment from Goldman Sachs, Noble Corp and Seagate. Still, it’s been a trend of more cheers than groans so far. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, among the 100 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings since July 11, 86% have exceeded the average analyst estimate.

For Singapore companies, REITs were among the first to report results that mostly came in within expectations. STI component stock SPH and property company Keppel Land also reported in-line earnings.

Keppel Corp reported better-than-expected results as the offshore and marine segment shines and infrastructure earnings more than doubled. FY11F/12F net earnings have been adjusted up 5% and 1% respectively.

Meanwhile, Ezra’s results disappointed again and our analyst has cut FY11-13F earnings by 6-40% because of the weak earnings, reduced GP margins, increased admin expenses and reduced earnings contributions from associate EOC. The pace of the results season will pick up momentum over the next 3 weeks. SIA, SIA Eng, SATS, CDL HT and Mapletree Commercial Trust will be reporting results this week while Cosco Corp, SembCorp Marine, SembCorp Industries, ST Eng, Hi-P, Tiger Airways and Venture Corp reports results in the following week.

The MSCI US currently trades at an inexpensive level of *13.6x forward earnings. While the reporting season has just begun, last week’s up-tick in interest among equities should sustain if the trend of better-than-expected earnings continue over the next 3 weeks. The MSCI Europe also currently trades at a historically inexpensive level of *10.9x forward earnings. Likewise, STI is at just slightly above 13.5x (-0.5SD) rolling 12-mth forward PE, which is considered reasonable. (* source: Bloomberg).

Given the positive backdrop from a valuation and earnings standpoint, all it takes is an abatement of sovereign debt woes to trigger a return in buying interest. This was what
happened last week when European officials announced a €160bil in aid for Greece to stop the region’s debt crisis from spreading. Bondholders will foot about 31% of the bill. Officials also empowered the €440bil rescue fund to buy debt across stressed nations, which helps to erect a defence line around Spain and Italy. The latest actions should greatly reduce recent concerns on the Eurozone debt woes.

The next macro event obstacle is the August 2nd deadline for the US to raise its USD14.3tri debt ceiling or risk default and downgrades in credit rating. Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s warned there is a 50% chance it will lower the U.S. government’s AAA credit rating by one or more levels within 3 months. S&P said that even if Congress raises the debt limit in time to avert a default, it might still lower the U.S. sovereign rating to AA+ with a negative outlook if it isn’t accompanied by a “credible solution” on the debt level. Such a rating change would “modestly increase” the government’s borrowing costs

The question next on our readers’ minds has to be: Is the current ‘risk-on’ rally sustainable?

We stick to our view that STI has formed a low at 3000 in June and it should head higher to 3400 by year-end although the ride can be bumpy.

Our year-end target of 3400 (or 3500 if taking a more optimistic view) means an average monthly gain of 50-75pts. STI rose 178pts in the past 5 weeks after touching a low of 3005 in mid-June. Last week alone, it gained 99pts. Clearly, this pace of gain is not sustainable and the index should be heading for a healthy pause soon. Still, a higher year-end index level from now suggests that while the current ‘riskon’ stance can pause soon and there can even be periods when the ‘risk-off’ trade makes a return (e.g. concerns about an economic slowdown), the ‘risk-on’ stance is likely to have the upper edge. STI should ‘bump-up’ higher in coming weeks and month(s) ahead.

Small caps interest to pick up
Over the past 1-2 months, we highlighted that investors can capitalize on the market lull to accumulate banks, yield plays, downstream food processors, S-REITs and several oversold stocks. A handful of these stocks are blue chips such as UOB, OCBC, SIA, and SIA Engineering that have performed well as the STI rose 5.9% after it touched a low at 3005 on June 17.

Blue chips have outperformed small-mid caps since the June 17 low. We view the leadership from blue chips positively. This behaviour adds confidence that the June 17 low can hold and the current interest among the blue chips should filter down to the small-mid caps.

Already, shares of grossly oversold mid-cap stock such as Yangzijiang have responded positively to price catalysts. The stock rose from a low of $1.24 to end at $1.425 last week after the management effectively addressed investors’ concerns regarding a convertible bond issue, exposure to Europe and the upcoming results. We maintain our technical view that the stock has bias to $1.49 although a pullback to test a ‘gap’ at $1.325-1.35 in the days/week ahead is seen first before the stock heads higher.

Our small cap (market cap < SGD1bil) highlights in recent weeks are Conscience Food, Frasers Commercial Trust (FCoT) and Cache Logistics. Among them, only FCoT shares outperformed the STI since June 17. Conscience Food shares matched STI’s performance while Cache shares have underperformed thus far. Post an anticipated pullback in the STI for the immediate term to 3115, we see room for these stocks to ‘catch up’ or even exceed blue chips performance as the most recent pick-up in interest among the large caps can spill into small-mid caps and given the higher volatility of small cap stocks.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: DBS Vickers Research
Publish date:25/07/11
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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