Friday, June 17, 2011

Shares slump but analysts say downtrend is temporary

Shares slump but analysts say downtrend is temporary
by Jonathan Peeris
04:47 AM Jun 17, 2011
SINGAPORE - Shares in Singapore slumped yesterday, in line with losses for the rest of Asia and Europe, with sentiment hurt by mounting debt problems in the euro-zone and more signs of slowing growth in the United States and China.

The benchmark Straits Times Index ended down 34.7 points, or 1.14 per cent, at 3,020.13, after falling to its lowest intra-day level since late March, as worries over weak US data and Greece's spiralling debt troubles kept investors away.

Elsewhere in Asia, China's Shanghai Composite shed 1.5 per cent, Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 1.8 per cent, while Japan's Nikkei-225 fell 1.7 per cent.

Late afternoon in Europe, London's FTSE was down 1.5 per cent while Germany's DAX declined 1 per cent.

But while analysts predicted more weakness in the near term, they were of the view that the downtrend would not last.

Mr Daryl Liew, head of portfolio management at Swiss private wealth management firm Reyl, said he was not surprised by the fall because markets had been correcting for a while already.

Mr Liew said: "The problems in Europe obviously have been the catalyst overnight but I think in general people are concerned over the potential ending of the second round of quantitative easing in the US as well as the situation in China with the tightening measures.

"I think it's basically a combination of all these three main reasons that has caused people to basically take risk off the table."

Mr Wong Sui Jau, general manager of fund distributor Fundsupermart, agreed, saying he wasn't too worried because the core fundamentals of companies remained strong.

"At this point in time, a lot of earnings are near record levels, if not already close to record levels," said Mr Wong.

"For example, in the US, overall earnings are going to hit record levels by the end of this year, yet valuations are not anywhere near the kind of levels to suggest this type of very, very strong earnings."

He added that the downside would likely be limited and that investors should take a long-term approach.

"In fact, for investors who are able to be patient enough to hold out this period, the potential rebound can be quite strong," said Mr Wong.

For the Singapore market, both analysts were of the view that it would start to see a rebound in the second half of the year and end 2011 higher.

Source/转贴/Extract/: TODAYonline
Publish date:17/06/11

Thursday, June 16, 2011

专家99%肯定 美经济二次衰退

专家99%肯定 美经济二次衰退
2011/06/16 6:18:13 PM
●南洋商报

(纽约16日讯)诸多迹象显示,美国经济增长放缓,甚至有经济学家认为,99%确定美国经济将陷入二次衰退。

加拿大财富管理公司Gluskin Sheff经济学家罗森博格预言,美国经济二次衰退即将来临,且很快就会到来。

罗森博格长期来是知名经济及股市空头派人士。报道指出,他14日在客户报告中说,现在99%确定美国经济2012年底将再度衰退。

罗森博格的理由是,美国消费者才刚开始清理账簿里的债务,且随着通货紧缩过程推展,消费支出将缓慢增长,进而打压就业增长。同时,美国政府及联储局还得想办法退出大规模刺激经济措施。


Source/转贴/Extract/: 南洋商报
Publish date:16/06/11

財經360 -- 0614 - 北美股市大連跌短線反彈無期?




Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:14/06/11

LMIR Trust: Favorable retail outlook ahead; reiterate BUY (OCBC)

According to Colliers International, no new retail supply entered the Jakarta market in 4Q10. Retail supply growth throughout 2010 in Jakarta and the greater Jakarta area was the lowest since 2009. With only 0.3% growth, YoY growth was 0.2pp below last year. Limited supply will continue throughout this year. In Jakarta, there will only be an additional 89,000 sq m of retail space by the end of 2011. The limited supply puts Lippo-Mapletree Indonesia Retail (LMIR) trust in a good stead to capitalize on growth opportunities arising from the economy recovery (Indonesia’s economic growth forecast is 6.9-7.0% for 2011). With a population of more than 200 million, a fast-growing economy and strong domestic consumption, Indonesia offers abundant potential for retail business. Likewise for retail landlords, who are expecting rentals to pick up in 2012-2013. We believe LMIR is poised to benefit from the rising mall culture in Indonesia. Reiterate BUY with an increased fair value of S$0.61 (prev: S$0.59).on favorable outlook ahead.

Retail supply. According to Colliers International, no new retail supply entered the market in 4Q10. Retail supply growth throughout 2010 in Jakarta and the greater Jakarta area was the lowest since 2009. With only 0.3% growth, YoY growth was 0.2pp below last year. Limited supply will continue throughout this year. In Jakarta, there will be an additional 89,000 sqm of retail space by the end of 2011 contributed mainly by Kuningan City Lifestyle and Entertainment. Colliers expects another 439,3556 sqm of retail space within the next three years and all of these projected developments are a component within mixed-use developments. Retail supply around Greater Jakarta is projected to be far less than in Jakarta. The limited supply puts LMIR in a good stead to capitalize on growth opportunities arising from the robust economy recovery (Indonesia’s economic growth forecast is 6.9-7.0% for 2011)

Occupancy rates & tenants. Up to the end of 1Q11, the occupancy rate of shopping malls in Jakarta was 85.04%, up 1.77% QoQ. We noted that occupancy rates have been steadily increasing for all regions of Jakarta since 2010. The average occupancy performance around the greater Jakarta area was also relatively stable, with occupancy standing at 82.9%. LMIR’s overall occupancy of 98% as at 31 Mar, compared favorably against these benchmarks. The emerging concept in Indonesia of combining department stores with F&B outlets further boosted shopper traffic and uplifted tenants’ performance. Some of the familiar tenants taking up new leases in Jakarta this year include Mad for Garlic, Marche, Muji, Yamaha Music School, Best Denki etc. In terms of the entry of new tenants, Payless Shoes, a shoe retailer from Kansas of the United States, also opened its first outlet in Indonesia. A giant retailer from Germany, Metro Group, also announced that it plans to invest as much as €300m in the next three years to establish 20 wholesale retail outlets in Indonesia.

Rental rates in Jakarta. There was no increase in rental rate in 1Q11. Strengthening occupancy performance has become more important for shopping malls at present. Retaining existing tenants by providing rents according to the lease agreement and offering reasonable rates for new tenants are common. In 1Q11, the average rental rate was recorded at Rp349,507 psm/mth. Despite showing no increase QoQ, the average rental rate was 1.16% higher YoY. With a population of more than 200 million, a fast-growing economy and strong domestic consumption, Indonesia offers abundant potential for retail business. Likewise for retail landlords, who are expecting rentals to pick up in 2012-2013. We believe LMIR is poised to benefit from the rising mall culture in Indonesia. Reiterate BUY with an increased fair value of S$0.61 (prev: S$0.59).on grounds of favorable outlook ahead


Source/转贴/Extract/: OCBC Investment Research
Publish date:16/06/11

Berlian Laju Oil tanker losses spoilt 4Q numbers

Berlian Laju Tanker
OUTPERFORM Maintained
RP340 Target: Rp480
Oil tanker losses spoilt 4Q numbers

• Below; but maintain OUTPERFORM. 4Q10 core net loss was US$50.9m, against our expectation of a profit of US$9.5m. Consequently, full-year core net loss amounted to US$75.5m against our US$15.1m loss forecast. While the chemical division performed according to expectations, the oil tanker & FPSO segment unexpectedly plunged into a 4Q operating loss of US$26.5m, from a US$1.5m loss in 3Q. We reflect the tough operating conditions in the oil tanker market by slashing core net profit by 266% for 2011 to a loss of US$46m, and by 90% for 2012 to just US$4m. We introduce 2013 forecasts. We maintain OUTPERFORM because chemical tanker rates should recover in 2012 and beyond, potentially providing catalysts, though we lower our target price to Rp480 from Rp495, still based on a 20% discount to SOP, following our earnings adjustments.

• Chemical shipping met forecasts; other divisions did not. The chemical shipping division earned US$93m in operating profit for the full year, meeting our forecast of US$94m. Chemical revenue was up 11% yoy, but EBIT was down 7% yoy on a 37% rise in bunker costs. On the other hand, gas tanker operating earnings were US$11m for 2010, against our US$15m expectation, due in part to an unexpected rise in depreciation in 4Q10 and higher-than-expected staff costs. Gas revenue was up 16% yoy for the full year, but EBIT was down 30% on higher depreciation and operating costs. The worst-performing segment was oil tankers, where the operating loss was a massive US$33.2m in 4Q against an operating profit of US$1m in 3Q. Tanker revenue collapsed to virtually nothing in 4Q, although costs were still being incurred. This loss more than offset the better FPSO performance, which earned US$6.7m in 4Q against a loss of US$2.6m in 3Q.

• Buana listed in May. PT Buana Listya Tama was listed at Rp155/share on 23 May and we have reflected the listing in our forecasts and valuation. We expect BLTA to recognise a gain on disposal of US$48m in 2011, but minority interest representing a 37.7% stake in Buana will also be recognised against Buana’s earnings. We have not imputed any cabotage contract wins in our numbers.


Source/转贴/Extract/: CIMB Research
Publish date:16/06/11

NOL to expand owned fleet further (DBSV)

Neptune Orient Lines
HOLD; S$1.53,
Price Target: S$2.10

NOL to order 12 new ships for delivery in 2013-14 NOL to expand owned fleet further. Close on the heels of its recently announced S$300m 4.40% notes issue, NOL Group announced the signing of LOIs for 12 new ships with Korean shipyards due for delivery in 2013-14. The new order would include i) ten 14,000 TEU vessels to be constructed at Hyundai Samho Heavy Industries, and ii) two 9,200 TEU vessels to be constructed by Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co. (DSME). NOL would also be upgrading its existing order with DSME for ten 8,400 TEU ships to 9,200 TEU capacity, in line with the specs for the new 2-ship order at DSME. Taken together with its existing orders placed in 2007 and 2010, NOL will be adding about 350,000 TEUs in gross capacity over 2012-14. Given that about 150,000 TEU capacity ships come off charter during that period and will be replaced by the owned ships, net increase in capacity by 2014 will be around 200,000 TEUs or 35% from current levels. The owned-to-chartered fleet composition will also change from current 30:70 to about 50:50 by end-2014, in line with management’s targets.

The total consideration for new vessels and upgrades is around US$1.54bn. We estimate the 14,000 vessels to cost around US$130m each, the 9,200 TEU vessels to cost around US$100m and the upgrades to cost around US$5m each. The price looks fair to us and seems to be at a slight discount to OOCL's orders with Samsung in March'11 for six 13,000 vessels for US$138m each and Hamburg Sud's orders for six 9,700 TEU ships for US$118m each (as reported by Clarkson). The recent notes issue should help finance pre-delivery payments, while bank lending for the remainder can be arranged at a later stage. NOL has already secured bank-lending amounting to about 78% of value of its last batch of orders. Net gearing for the Group is, however, projected to increase from current levels of around 0.2x to 0.5x by end-FY12 and even higher, going forward, as more of the owned ships are delivered.

Indicative of change in strategy? The 14,000 TEU ships are the biggest that NOL has ordered to date, and is suitable for deployment on the Asia-Europe trade. The bigger players on the Asia-Europe trade like Maersk, MSC, CMA-CGM and CSCL have already deployed or ordered ships of this size/ class, and NOL would find it hard to compete effectively on this route without the cost advantages obtained from running these bigger and more efficient ships. The more aggressive intent to protect market share on Asia-Europe routes, where NOL has traditionally not been seen as a strong player, could be a sign of change in strategy as NOL has seen some recent changes in top management, including changes in Group CEO and the President of the container shipping division (APL). The smaller 9,200 TEU ships will however, be deployed on the Transpacific route, where NOL already has a premium position. We believe it is still very early days to call changes in the Group's longterm strategy, though.

Clouds building up in the horizon. While there is no immediate impact on earnings from these new orders, we view the industry-wide phenomenon of placing new orders to gain market share in the 2013-14 period with caution, as even the long-term demand-supply dynamics now begin to look increasingly fragile. In the near term, carriers continue to struggle with weakening freight rates across trade lanes, and there is no sign yet of a peak-season driven demand recovery. 2Q11 will likely be another loss-making quarter for NOL, as well as the industry at large, and whether 3Q11 will be strong enough to recover the losses will remain to be seen. As such, we maintain our HOLD call on the stock for now but see potential downside risks to our earnings assumptions for FY11/12.


Source/转贴/Extract/: DBS Vickers Research
Publish date:16/06/11

SIA May '11 Stats: Load Factor Dips (DMG)

Singapore Airlines
SELL __
Price S$14.00
Previous S$12.35
Target S$12.35
May '11 Stats: Load Factor Dips

SIA’s load factor for the month of May continued to weaken as forward bookings levelled off. We expect flat yields for FY12 given that high air fares owing to fuel surcharges are likely to cause passengers to switch to cheaper airlines, and the fact that low cost carriers are aggressively expanding their fleet. We are skeptical on SIA’s move to venture into the long haul low cost carrier segment as we think it would be value destructive to the airline’s premium branding and potentially dilute yields. Maintain SELL with the stock’s FV unchanged at S$12.35.

Passenger load factor weakens. SIA registered a YoY RPK growth of 4.3% (2 months YTD: 6%) in the month of May 2011 on the back of capacity growth of 6%, which further weakened its load factor by 1.2-ppts to 73.6%. Passengers carried was higher by 4% YoY (2M YTD: 5%) while capacity originally directed to the Tokyo route was diverted by adding frequency on routes to Hong Kong, Taipei and Male. SIA has been flying thrice-weekly to Sao Paulo via Barcelona since March but take-up has been poor. Its weaker passenger load factor was attributed to the East Asia and Americas region.

Cargo - Fragile economic recovery. FTK for the month of May was marginally flat on the back a 3.6% YoY increase in capacity as the cargo market braces itself for a faltering global economic recovery amid intensifying competition from other cargo carriers, which suggests that yields would continue to be trend down. This resulted in a YoY drop of 1.9-ppts in its cargo load factor to 64.7%, which was worse across all regions except the South West Pacific region.

Load factor to lighten further. On the back of a forecast 6% growth in capacity for FY12, we expect load factor to continue to dip as high air fares due to fuel surcharges send passengers running to cheaper airlines amid aggressive fleet expansion among low cost carriers that is chipping away market share given their added frequency on short haul routes. As a result, passenger yields are likely to remain flat. The intensifying competition has prompted a review of SIA’s strategy, whereby to maintain market share, SIA is targeting to set up a long haul low cost carrier within the next 12 months. We are skeptical on this move as we think it would be value destructive to SIA’s premium branding and would potentially dilute yields. In our view, the key to succeeding in the low cost business is generating passenger volume, and we believe this could work for shorter haul routes as revenue and high margins are primarily driven by ancillary income initiatives. Separately, recent ash clouds from Chile have halted flights headed for New Zealand and we understand that to date, none of SIA’s flights have been grounded, although flights to Christchurch and Wellington have been diverted to Auckland.

VALUATION AND RECOMMENDATION
Reiterate SELL. SIA's near-term challenges are weakening load factor, flattening yields amid a fragile recovery in the global economy and soaring jet fuel prices, which will also be investors’ primary concern. We are making no changes to our earnings forecast and reiterate our SELL recommendation, with an unchanged FV of S$12.35, premised on 15x FY12 EPS. Since our downgrade last month, SIA’s share price has declined by 4.5% and we anticipate more downward pressure.


Source/转贴/Extract/: DMG & Partners Research
Publish date:16/06/11

歐美雙重打壓油價暴跌4.6%

歐美雙重打壓油價暴跌4.6%

(紐約16日訊)原油價格跌破每桶95美元關口,自2月以來,這還是首次。油價下跌不僅是因為市場擔心歐洲債務危機會進一步惡化,還因為有跡象表明美國經濟在日漸減速,從而將導致原油需求下降。


歐元區各國財政部長正在苦苦尋求各種手段,以期打破二次希臘紓困計劃的僵局;與此同時,紐約聯邦儲備銀行的總體經濟指數,也滑落到去年11月以來的最低水平。

拖累大宗商品價格走低

美國能源部15日發佈的一份報告更是顯示,美國燃油需求出現五周來的首次下降。在這樣的背景下,原油期貨價格昨日大幅下跌4.6%,同時拖累歐元和多數大宗商品價格走低。

「希臘危機讓人們擔心,歐洲會有更多的銀行倒閉並引發連串的連鎖反應,從而殃及總體經濟和燃料需求,」麻塞諸塞州戰略能源與經濟研究所總裁林奇(Michael Lynch)說。

Source/转贴/Extract/: Oriental Daily
Publish date:17/06/11

「今天(15日)的報告太糟糕了,尤其是有關工業燃料的數字,更是糟糕透頂。」

紐約7月原油期貨合約昨日下跌4.56美元,報每桶94.81美元,跌幅4.6%。盤中最低曾跌至94.01美元﹐創2月22日以來的最低水平。跌幅也是5月11日以來的最高紀錄。但該合約價格與去年同期相比,仍高出23%。

亞洲市場,紐約7月原油期貨回升至每桶95.54美元。

倫敦ICE期貨交易所7月布倫特原油期貨合約下跌2.86美元,至每桶117.30美元,跌幅2.4%。該合約將於今日到期。

交易更活躍的8月期貨合約下跌5.91美元,報每桶113.44美元,跌幅5%。亞洲市場,7月布倫特原油報每桶114.38美元。

中國企業ADR再受重創 科技股在美遭拋售

中國企業ADR再受重創 科技股在美遭拋售

(紐約16日訊)週三中國企業再度受到媒體狂轟濫炸,更多投資人拋售中資企業美國存托憑證(ADR),此前一波會計醜聞拖累知名中資企業ADR重挫。其中,對科技行業出現新泡沫的擔憂,蔓延至中國的互聯網業,高企的股價隨之暴跌,並引發了對今後中國網絡公司在美國上市能否獲得追捧的質疑。


關注整體中資企業的上市交易基金和個股的選擇權活動顯示,投資人預計這些股份將進一步下挫。iShares FTSE/新華中國25指數基金自4月21日來大跌9%,週三跌1.7%。

「如果繼續跌,我也不會意外,」對沖基金SYW Capital表示,「許多這些企業的市盈率(P/E)在2倍,甚至有一家市值低於其賬面上的現金,但還是沒有人在乎--所有人都希望撤離。」

紐約梅隆銀行的中資企業指數大跌2.07%,報414.44點,亞洲企業ADR指數下挫2.09%,報132.33點。

百度市值縮水107億美元

紐約梅隆銀行的ADR指數跌2.64%,報136.3點;紐約梅隆銀行的歐洲企業ADR指數挫3.17%,至126.36點。

在線圖書銷售商--當當網去年12月在紐約證券交易所上市首日股價飆升了87%,今年1月曾一度漲至更高的水平,然而上週卻首次跌破IPO發行價;人人公司在一個月前上市首日股價大漲29%,不過一週後就跌破了14美元的IPO發行價,週三紐約股市接近午盤時的交易價格為7.90美元;百度股價較7週前的最高收盤價跌了20%,市值縮水約107億美元。

百度挫跌4.79%,報118.84美元,中國石油下滑2.97%,至94.17美元蟲;新浪重挫5.16%,至86.881美元。


Source/转贴/Extract/: Oriental Daily
Publish date:17/06/11

冀一年內加入寰宇一家 馬航盼雙位數成長

(八打靈再也16日訊)馬航(MAS,3786,主要板貿易)冀可在1年內,完成加入寰宇一家(oneworld)的程序,並期許加入后可錄得雙位數的獲利成長。

 馬航董事經理兼總執行長東姑拿督斯里阿茲米指出,由于會員積分制度和資訊科技等系統需時整合,一般需時18個月才能完成加入程序。

 他透露,目前需展開連串工作如與其他14家會員就積分共享個別簽署雙邊協議,並建設個別系統等,相當耗時。

 “但我的內部目標,是比其他會員更快完成加入程序,希望可在1年內完成。”

 他今日出席媒體匯報會時,如此表示;列席者包括馬航政府與工業關係部高級副總裁傑瑪星康。

 阿茲米指出,加入寰宇一家可讓馬航和旗下乘客享有更多優惠,例如更佳的全球飛行網絡、享有其他會員航空公司的飛行積分、藉此讓其他國家認識馬航等。

 他看好,正式成為會員后,營業額和乘客將明顯增加,應該可以取得雙位數的獲利成長。”

 詢及加入聯盟是否有助控制燃油成本時,他回應說,利好主要反映在營業額上,例如共享休憩室和登機檯而享有更佳成本效益等。

 阿茲米也說,加入寰宇一家不會影響馬航與非會員荷蘭皇家航空(KLM)的合作,重申有意與后者繼續密切合作。

 “加入寰宇一家的好處之一,是聯盟不會要求會員終止與其他合作伙伴的關係。”

 加入聯盟也是馬航業務轉型計劃(BTP 2)的一部分。

 馬航是東南亞首家加入寰宇一家的航空公司,該聯盟旗下會員航空公司在全球150個國家的飛行目的地超過900個。


Source/转贴/Extract/: 中國報
Publish date:16/06/11

受APH遭接管拖累‧睦興旺或爆巨虧‧股價急瀉

受APH遭接管拖累‧睦興旺或爆巨虧‧股價急瀉
Created 06/16/2011 - 19:01

(吉隆坡16日訊)睦興旺工程(MUHIBAH, 5703, 主板建筑組)作為柔佛亞洲石油中心(APH)主要承包商,基於APH無力還債被大馬會計公司BBDO-Binder接管,導致睦興旺工程可能蒙受龐大註銷和虧損,股價今日暴跌20%至3年來最大跌幅。

根據新加坡《商業時報》報導,APH主要是無法覓到其他投資者融資發展,並無力償還債務,被聯昌銀行抽起融資,而被接管;該公司於2006年攫獲14億令吉的3年臨時貸款,但隨計劃成本上揚,該公司也尋求額外20億令吉的融資。

報導指出,APH在去年杪的累積資本開銷略超過14億令吉,確實完成達64%。APH的主要股東是KIC油氣公司,持有70%股權。

睦興旺承包8.2億工程

睦興旺工程為APH的承包商之一,獲頒的海樁與碼頭工程值高達8億2千萬令吉。這項佔地40公頃的計劃共有5名承包商。

2008年成本飆升,引發APH融資問題,無力償付睦興旺工程累積款項約3億令吉,未包括截至去年杪的未償付工程1億8千700萬令吉。睦興旺工程仍未就計劃作任何撥備。

APH遭接管對睦興旺工程短期影響負面,睦興旺工程或需減記高達3億7千萬令吉,促使2011財政年可能蒙受最高達3億零600萬令吉淨虧損,同時在侵蝕股東資金超過75%預期下,還可能淪為PN17公司。

大跌38仙

受不利消息打擊,睦興旺工程今日一開市就面對沉重賣壓,一度大跌42仙或22.1%,至1令吉48仙,是2008年3月以來的3年最大跌幅,收市該股難以收復失地,報1令吉52仙作收,下跌38仙或20%。

有淪為PN17公司風險

儘管如此,肯納格研究認為,淪為PN17公司的可能性不大,因據悉,相關資產的價值可觀,有興趣的買家已浮現,睦興旺工程或無需作如此龐大的撥備。

根據2010財政年審核賬,亞洲石油中心脫欠睦興旺工程的款項可能達3億7千萬令吉,因此,若睦興旺工程在2011財政年作全面性撥備,肯納格對該公司的淨利預測6千400萬令吉,或將轉向3億零600萬令吉淨虧損。

聯昌研究表示,最壞情況下,睦興旺工程可能需減記高達3億令吉,進而在2011財政年蒙虧,不過,一旦接管人接手APH管理,可能對大量欠款展開重新償還方案,進而降低睦興旺工程大幅減記風險。

APH或邀海外投資者注資

聯昌對APH遭接管感負面驚訝,但相信現階段仍不足以構成主要憂慮,主要是APH可能需更多時間洽談以解決問題,同時尋求新投資者。

據瞭解,APH仍與有興趣者洽談,不排除新海外投資者注入資金以重啟計劃,指示期至2011年杪。

撥備未損基本面

聯昌未過度擔憂睦興旺工程處境,歸功於建築與油氣領域強勁支撐下,該公司基本面仍完整無缺,更重要的是,潛在撥備將反映在債務中,並不會影響重估淨資產值(RNAV)。

睦興旺工程依然是聯昌看好的油氣股,建議投資者趁低吸購。

肯納格也提到,睦興旺工程的展望依然正面,高達28億令吉訂單,或足以應付未來至少三年,因而保持2011與2012財政年淨利預測各6千380萬與6千840萬令吉,以待事情進一步發展。




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source/转贴/Extract/: biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:16/06/11

希臘債務告急‧憂風暴重臨‧全球股匯驚跌

希臘債務告急‧憂風暴重臨‧全球股匯驚跌
Created 06/16/2011 - 18:30

(吉隆坡16日訊)希臘債務告急和大罷工,及美國的經濟數據不振,雙雙打擊投資人信心,歐美股和商品市場全面大跌,歐元兌美元觸及兩週半低點,進而打擊今日亞洲股市表現,下跌至3個月來低點,下跌逾1至2%。

希臘債務危機的擔憂再次引發股市拋壓,雅典的遊行暴動則進一步加大股市拋壓,另外美國經濟數據不甚理想,同時衝擊投資人信心,歐美股市暴跌,亞股難倖免,區域基準指數創近3個月來最低收盤點,市場擔憂債務纏身的希臘將會違約。

MSCI亞太指數早盤跌1.5%至130.54點,將創下3月21日來最低收盤點。市場擔憂經濟從2008年金融危機以及其後的衰退中復甦的步伐可能受到拖累。

日經下跌1.7%,韓國挫1.91%,澳洲跌1.91%,中國、香港和台灣股市都面對空盤轟炸,各跌1.52%、1.75%和2%,香港股市更創今年新低;東南亞股市也一片黑。馬股相對跌勢較輕,一度失守1550點,挫6.54點至1549.65,並以1554.24點收市,跌1.95點。

憂金融災難重演

市場上所有宏觀經濟因素讓市場受到沉重打擊。德國與歐中行對於希臘第二輪紓困方案的看法相互角力,可能倒債的希臘又遭調降主權信評,部份銀行遭降信評,預示著希臘違約風險升高,金融災難可能來臨。

道指失守12000點

分析員說:“2008年發生的事對投資者來說是場噩夢,沒有人希望重演,歐洲有可能會觸發另一場全球信貸危機,這最令人擔憂。”

對於政府因應歐盟金援方案的緊縮政策,希臘民眾展開全國性的24小時大罷工示威,對投資市場投下一記炸彈;歐美股收盤暴跌;週三盤中道瓊斯工商指數最多曾下跌超過212點,收市收低178.84點或1.48%至11897.27點,失守12000點重要心理關卡。

歐洲股市隔夜下跌逾1%,希臘地區的災難禍及其他歐洲邊疆國家,葡萄牙指數挫低2%;意大利指數也大跌2.2%。今日開市,歐洲股市持續跌勢。

美元走強進而打壓油價,紐約(NYMEX)7月原油期貨挫4.56美元,跌幅為4.6%,其他商品價格普遍收低,但避險需求,導致金價一枝獨秀。

美元走強也導致亞洲貨幣全面下跌,馬幣一度下跌至3.055水平,下午5時掛3.0465。




Source/转贴/Extract/: biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:16/06/11

2011-0613-57金錢爆(外資超級8行情 )










Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:13/06/11

Muhibbah under pressure, skids 21c in late morning

KUALA LUMPUR: Shares of Muhibbah Engineering came under selling pressure in late morning on Thursday, June 16 on the negative surprise about the impact from news report about Asia Petroleum Hub (APH) -- which it undertook a project for -- faced receivership.

At 11.11am, it fell as much as 21 sen to RM1.69 with more than 11 million shares done.

APH, the developer and operator of the APH oil terminal in Johor, faced the prospects of receivership, news reports said.

CIMB Research said as one of the contractors for APH, Muhibbah was awarded the marine piling and jetty works worth RM820 million. Cost escalation in 2008 led to funding issues for APH and the stalling of payments due to Muhibbah.

“The unpaid amount has accumulated to about RM300 million, which does not include RM187 million worth of outstanding works as at end-2010. Muhibbah has not made any provisions for the project as the project is still deemed viable.

“A favourable outcome for the APH project would enhance Muhibbah’s net profit by an estimated RM12 million per annum in the form of interest savings from the RM300 million outstanding from APH as Muhibbah separately funded the project.

“The worst-case scenario for Muhibbah is a write-down of the RM300 million due from APH, which would push Muhibbah into losses for FY11. However, we believe that in a scenario where the receiver takes over management of APH, it may come up with a scheme to repay a large portion of the amount due to contractors, which would reducethe risk of a huge write-down.

“While this latest development is a slight disappointment, we are not overly concerned as the group’s fundamentals are still intact, backed by the buoyant CONSTRUCTION [] and oil & gas sector. Furthermore, the potential provisions would have no impact on RNAV as the amount is reflected as liabilities,” said CIMB Research.



Source/转贴/Extract/: www.theedgemalaysia.com
Publish date:16/06/11

NOL orders new ships and upgrades worth US$1.54b

Business Times - 16 Jun 2011


NOL orders new ships and upgrades worth US$1.54b

Ten of the vessels will be 14,000 TEUs, its largest and most fuel efficient

By JOYCE HOOI

CONFIRMING talk of a big shipbuilding deal, Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) has signed a letter of intent to build 12 new container ships in South Korea - 10 of which will be its largest ones ever. It will also be making the ships that it ordered last year even larger, which together with the new ships will cost about US$1.54 billion.

Of the 12 new ships, the largest ones - ten 14,000-twenty foot-equivalent unit (TEU) vessels - will be built at Hyundai Samho Heavy Industries Co.

Before this, the largest ships ordered by NOL were in the 10,000-TEU range, slated to be delivered in mid-December this year. The largest ships in its fleet currently are in the 8,000-TEU range.

The 14,000-TEU ships will be NOL's most fuel-efficient ships and will be used for its Asia-Europe trade, according to the group.

The remaining two 9,200-TEU ships being ordered will be built at Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co, NOL said in a statement released on the Singapore Exchange after the market closed yesterday.

The 9,200-TEU vessels are 'likely be employed in the Trans-Pacific trade', according to NOL.

NOL's share price hit an 18-month low yesterday, falling 8 cents - or 4.97 per cent - to $1.53 as the sixth-most heavily traded stock on the Singapore Exchange.

On top of the new ship orders, NOL also said that it will be making 10 of the ships that it had ordered from Daewoo last year even larger - upsizing them from 8,400 TEUs to 9,200 TEUs. NOL said these upgraded ships will also have a new and more efficient design and technology.

Both the new and upgraded ships are scheduled for delivery in 2013 and 2014.

NOL is buying new and larger ships to 'reduce unit capital and operating costs, meet future growth needs and replace older and smaller chartered vessels that will be returned to their owners in the charter market'.

Last week, NOL said that it would issue $300 million in euro medium term notes to partially finance the buying of new container ships.

The notes - which bear an interest of 4.4 per cent - will be due in 2021 under NOL's US$1.5 billion euro medium term note programme that it had set up last year.

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:16/06/11

KNM Strong order backlog. (hwang)

KNM Group
BUY RM1.90
Price Target : 12-Month RM 3.35

Record high order book
• A matter of time before strong earnings recovery
• Record high RM5.5bn order book to sustain earnings growth
• Maintain BUY and RM3.35 TP (76% upside)

Strong order backlog.
At the analyst briefing yesterday, management remained optimistic of a recovery in 2011. As at May11, KNM has secured RM1.5bn worth of new orders, taking its order backlog to RM5.5bn. Its tender book remains strong at RM17bn, which means it is likely to meet our FY11 target order win of RM3bn given its historical success rate of 20%. We learned of delays at its RM2.2bn EnergyPark Peterborough project, and the management now expects it to commence next month.

Earnings recovery intact.
The weaker-than-expected 1Q11 earnings were largely due to recognition of low margin jobs secured back in FY09 and early FY10. KNM still has RM1bn worth of old contracts in its backlog, which we expect to be exhausted by FY11. We cut FY11F earnings by 15% because the old projects, which will account for c.50% of revenue this year, will yield lower margins. However, KNM’s prospects remain buoyant, as its large order book will support long-term earnings visibility. Hence, we are retaining our forecasts for FY12.

Undemanding valuation, maintain Buy. KNM is currently trading at attractive valuation of only 8x FY12 EPS, making it one of the cheapest O&G stocks in Malaysia. The recent sell-down by investors, due to disappointing 1Q11 earnings, is excessive. We remain bullish on KNM’s long-term prospect and the full impact of normalised margins will be reflected in FY12. We recommend investors to buy on weakness.

Earnings growth underpinned by RM5.5bn order book
KNM’s management remains optimistic of a strong recovery in 2011. As at May11, it has secured RM1.5bn worth of new orders that takes its order backlog to a record high RM5.5bn. Process equipment continues to dominate its order backlog with 38% share, renewable & green energy at 39%, and plant & technology at 19%.

Tender book remains strong at RM17bn, which means it will meet our FY11 target order win of RM3bn premised on its 20% historical success rate. We expect more new contracts to be dished out over the next few quarters as oil prices remain high and the outlook remains promising for global O&G sector and renewable energy industry.

We learned there are delays in its RM2.2bn EnergyPark Peterborough project due to issues with funding arrangements by the awarding party. Meanwhile, KNM, has secured all its required financing and is only awaiting the green light to start procurement and construction. The management now expects the project to start next month. Earnings recovery intact. The management acknowledged the weaker-than-expected 1Q11 earnings and that they were largely due to the recognition of low margin jobs secured back in FY09 and early FY10. We understand KNM still has RM1bn worth of old contracts in its backlog that will be completed this year. Given that these old projects will comprise c.50% of our FY11 forecast, we cut FY11 earnings by 15% after imputing lower margins. We expect earnings recovery to be more pronounced in 2H11, especially in the fourth quarter. However, we believe its outlook remains buoyant as its large order book will support long-term earnings visibility. Hence, we are retaining our forecasts for FY12.

Growth Strategies
The management shared that the Russian O&G market has strong potential given its rich gas reserves and that KNM might explore that in the future. Also, Petronas’ recently launched RM60bn Refinery and Petrochemical Integrated Development (RAPID) presents lots of opportunities given its forte in the downstream O&G sector, supplying process equipment. The potential addressable market for KNM, the management estimates, is up to US$3-4bn. Nevertheless, RAPID is still under feasibility studies and will only come onstream about 2016.

Valuation and Recommendation
KNM is currently trading at only 8x FY12 EPS, making it one of the cheapest O&G stocks in Malaysia. The recent selldown due to weak 1Q11 earnings is excessive and we recommend investors to buy on weakness. We remain bullish on KNM’s long-term prospects and the full impact of normalised margins will be reflected in FY12. Maintain BUY and RM3.35 target price, implying 76% upside potential.



Source/转贴/Extract/: HWANGDBS Vickers Research
Publish date:14/06/11

KNM More contracts to be recognized in FY12 (midf)

KNM Group Berhad
Maintain BUY .
Target Price (TP): RM3.20
More contracts to be recognized in FY12 Unchanged

• To recover starting 2HFY11. KNM held a post-results briefing yesterday. Disappointing 1QFY11 performance and earnings visibility moving forward were the key issues discussed. To recap, low margin projects secured during FY09 and 1HFY10 when the competition was intense due to economic slowdown led to margin compression in 1QFY11. Management guided that 2QFY11 results are expected to remain flat before improving in 2HFY11 given the remaining RM1b low margin orders backlog (refer Graph A).

• Newly secured contracts will boost earnings. KNM’s total outstanding order book hit RM5.5b as at May11, of which RM4.5b was only secured in 2HFY10 and 1HFY11. Should the contracts to be realized starting 2HFY11, KNM’s earnings visibility as well as investors’ confidence is expected to be enhanced. Management expects the RM2.2b job (accounting for 40% of total current backlog) awarded by Peterborough Renewable Energy Limited to be recognized starting July11 instead of initial targeted Apr-May11 due to delays in their bank funding process.

• FY11 earnings target cut. Following the lackluster 1QFY11 results performance and delay in revenue/earnings recognition from Peterborough project, management revised downwards its FY11 revenue and EBITDA target to RM2.2b and RM270m respectively from RM2.4b and RM363m (refer Table B). We are also cutting our FY11 earnings estimates by -18.2% to RM190m and introducing FY12 number of RM229m. Our gross profit margin assumption for the contracts secured in 2HFY10 and year-to-date FY11 is pegged at 20%, more conservative than management guidance of 25%.

• Opportunity in RAPID project. KNM’s tender book increased substantially by +45% to RM16b as at Jan11 from RM11b a year ago. Growing tender book indicates rising exploration and production (E&P) spending which augurs well for KNM’s earnings growth prospects. Judging from past track records, KNM’s tender success rate is estimated at about 20%. In addition, the management estimates that the recently announced Refinery and Petrochemical Integrated Development (RAPID) project in Pengerang Johor can expose KNM to potentially USD3b-4b worth of tenders.

• Maintain BUY with unchanged Target Price of RM3.20. We are rolling over our valuation into FY12 number as we believe it is more reflective over the sizeable contracts that KNM has garnered, which is expected to be realized for the full year in FY12. FY10-FY12 EPS CAGR is estimated at about +30%. Our Target Price is derived from 14x PER12, which is within its historical PER band and peers’ average.


Source/转贴/Extract/: MIDF RESEARCH
Publish date:14/06/11

KNM Lowering expectations (Ecm)

KNM Group
Hold
12-month upside potential
Target price 1.68
Current price (as at 13 June) 1.90

Lowering expectations
We downgrade our earnings estimates for KNM by 48-54% for FY11-FY13 to be slightly lower than the group’s already lowered guidance. KNM’s margins are now moving targets as project delays resulted in higher manufacturing costs. We downgrade our call from buy to HOLD.

What’s new
_ KNM lowered their FY11 profit guidance by some 26% yesterday to RM270m at EBITDA levels owing to project delays and also lower than expected margins.

_ They are experiencing some delays in their UK Biomass project (due to delay in formalisation of project funding which was delayed from April to July) and are likely to begin procurement only in 4Q11. Some recognition is nonetheless expected from the RM2.2bn project but skewed towards 2H11.

_ Besides these delays, the group notes that 2Q11 results will also be slow as they still have some RM1bn of old orders (from 2009-1H10) to clear off in their books. These jobs have low margins like those seen in 1Q11 (<5% at EBIT level) and consist of many small but delayed projects.

_ Latest orderbook is still strong at RM5.5bn and latest tenderbook is RM17bn. This does not include new projects like RAPID but includes new LNG projects in Australia. Typical success rate for KNM is 10-20%.

Earnings revision
_ We are cutting our FY11 earnings estimate by 51% to account for delays in the UK biomass project as well as overall lower margins for existing orderbook. We also cutting FY12 and FY13 earnings on the assumption that current orderbook will not be as lucrative as expected.

Investment merits
_ KNM does have a very strong orderbook that will provide them with earnings visibility into 2014 provided that project execution and cost control is good.

Re-rating catalysts
_ Earlier than expected recognition from the UK biomass project and also stronger than expected margins. KNM expects margins of 20% at gross level compared to our estimate of <15%.

_ New lucrative projects secured by Borsig as it remains the most profitable amongst KNM’s subsidiaries now. Borsig’s orderbook is some RM1.5bn (to last 24 months) out of the RM5.5bn and gross margins are steady at 20%.

Key risks
_ Higher than expected manufacturing costs due to project delays on KNM’s part. The group as such has to make up for loss time by putting in additional work hours or equipment to make up for delays.

Valuation
_ Following our earnings cut, our target price declines from RM3.43 to RM1.68 (FY11 EPS pegging 15x market P/E) indicating an 11% downside. As such, we downgrade our call from a BUY to a HOLD.


Source/转贴/Extract/: ECM Libra Capital
Publish date:14/06/11

KNM Brace for further headwinds (MIB)

KNM Group
Hold (from Buy)
Share price: RM1.90
Target price: RM2.00 (from RM4.35)

Brace for further headwinds
Cut forecasts, downgrade to Hold. Our initial forecasts are too optimistic and management is guiding for lower profits as earnings could remain weak over the next few quarters. This is disappointing for we had expected earnings to rebound on the new orders secured in the past 12 months. The financing for the Peterborough project is still unresolved. We lower our target price to RM2.00 based on reduced PE multiple target of 10x (previously 14x) as we also cut earnings forecasts.

Downbeat assessment. Although orderbook build up momentum has improved, earnings will remain depressed over the next 9 months as KNM still needs to deliver RM1.0b worth of jobs committed under razor thin EBIT margins (5-8%). These low margin orders account for 18% of its RM5.5b outstanding orderbook as at May 2011. Consequently, internal targets for 2011 revenue and EBITDA have been lowered by 8% and 26% to RM2.2b and RM270m respectively.

Cost management is a concern. We have cut our earnings forecasts by 18-35% for 2011-13, taking into account the downbeat prospect in the short-mid term period. We now expect KNM to deliver a lower net profit of RM139m for 2011, RM190m for 2012 and RM300m for 2013. This is based on lower utilisation rate assumptions of 95,000 tpa for 2011 (-5%) and 100,000 tpa for 2012 (-9%) and reduced EBIT margin assumptions of 12.3% (-3.4-ppt) and 14.1% (-4.1-ppt) for 2011-12.

Downgrade to Hold. Share price has fallen 25% post the poor 1Q11 results which were sub-par. RM19m 1Q11 net profit made up just 9% of our earlier full-year forecast, but this was aided by tax incentives (+RM18m) which partially offset weak margins (4.1% EBIT, -1.3 ppt QoQ). While share price should have, by now, substantially price in the lower earnings expectations for the near term, the upside will be capped by the negative outlook surrounding its earnings deliverability. We reiterate that top line recovery is visible but KNM needs to deliver its normalised margins on the bottom line to rerate.


Source/转贴/Extract/: Maybank Investment Bank
Publish date:14/06/11

Top Glove Hold for FY12 recovery (hwang)

Top Glove Corporation
HOLD RM5.16
Price Target : 12-Month RM 5.30

Hold for FY12 recovery
• Expect 3QFY11 to be another weak quarter as latex prices remained high
• Slower-than-expected earnings recovery prompted us to cut FY11F EPS by 25%
• Negatives priced in; maintain Hold and RM5.30 TP

Expect 3QFY11 result to be flat qoq. Top Glove will release 3QFY11 result on 17 June. We expect it to be weak, given continued high latex coupled with a still weak USD during Mar-May. Latex prices averaged RM10.00 per kg in the quarter, similar to 2QFY11 levels. On top of that, the USD has weakened another 2% against the RM qoq. Hence, demand remained flat due to high ASPs.

Cut FY11F earnings 25%, expect lower dividends. We initially expected earnings and margins to recover in 2HFY11, but given the current firm latex prices, we will only see a meaningful recovery in FY12. In addition, Top Glove will be hit by higher energy costs following the electricity tariff hikes this month. We have revised our assumptions as follows: (i) 7% higher electricity costs; (ii) progressive 20-45% hike in gas costs, and (iii) higher latex prices (RM8.10-8.80 per kg). Consequently, we cut FY11F earnings by 25% and nudged down FY12 by 1%. Top Glove might declare lower dividend for FY11, given the need to conserve cash for expansion and working capital. As such, we lowered our DPS assumption to 11sen (from 16 sen) based on 50% payout.

Maintain Hold and RM5.30 TP pegged to 13x CY12 EPS. Top Glove remains a HOLD because we believe the negative newsflow on earnings and dividends have been priced in. Key re-rating catalysts are a drop in latex prices and pickup in demand.


Source/转贴/Extract/: HWANGDBS Vickers Research
Publish date:13/06/11

CIMB fund flows round-up (weekly)

CIMB fund flows round-up (weekly)

Risk-off due to growth concerns
Fund outflows resume. For the week ending 8 June, net outflows resumed after the previous week’s respite. DM outflows (-US$7bn) remained largely led by North America. There were also net outflows from Emerging Markets (-US$0.4bn), albeit on a smaller scale than DM. Similarly, EM Asia saw a relatively small outflow of US$0.08bn. Within EM Asia, Taiwan and Korea saw net outflows last week despite recording overall net inflows YTD. What stood out for us were the larger-thanexpected inflows for Malaysia (+US$52m) and outflows for Thailand (-US$42m), in line with the more defensive market characteristic for the former and the rising political concerns for the latter. We are making the anti-consensus call to remain Overweight on Thailand. We do not expect political concerns to offset the positives of Thailand’s macro picture and earnings outlook (for more, please refer to ‘Stay invested - temporary risk-off from growth fears’ dated 10 June 2011).

Macro data still below expectation. One consistent thread in the recent period is disappointing macro data. For the past week, the key macro data that came in lower than expected included the change in US non-farm payroll for May (54k actual vs. 164k expected vs. 232k previously). Malaysia’s industrial production growth for April also turned negative, reflecting ongoing moderation in the economic recovery. On the positive end, Indonesia continued to accumulate foreign reserves (US$118bn for end-May) while keeping its currency stable. The US and Thai consumer sentiment indicators also continued to hold firm.

Markets risk-off continues. Asian markets were again down across the board in the past week, except for the Nikkei 225. YTD, India, Japan, China, Singapore and HK experienced the sharpest market declines (in descending order). The past week’s market weakness was, however, broad-based, in line with general risk-off sentiments given the recent weeks’ fund outflows and continued macro data disappointment, especially in the US. Crude oil prices, meanwhile, remain around US$100/bbl. The euro continues to hover in the range of 1.41 to 1.45 against the US$. The Baltic Dry index stayed on its descent.





Source/转贴/Extract/: CIMB Research
Publish date:13/06/11

Tiger Airways Grey skies down under, but value emerging (CIMB)

Tiger Airways Holdings Limited
NEUTRAL Upgraded
S$1.28 Target: S$1.40
Grey skies down under, but value emerging
Volcanic ashes ground flights in Australia…
… but upgrade from Underperform to Neutral. Volcanic ash from the Chilean Puyehue eruption has reached Australia and New Zealand. Tiger Australia announced yesterday that it has halted all flights until the situation improves. We lower our FY12 earnings estimate by 11.6% but retain our FY13-14 forecasts. Accordingly, our target price dips to S$1.40 (from S$1.43), still based on 8x CY12 EPS, the industry’s 4-year historical forward average. Despite our earnings revision, we see some value emerging from Tiger’s recent underperformance. We believe negatives from its regional expansion issues are gradually priced in, and upgrade it to Neutral. Further re-rating catalysts could include: 1) a favourable outcome in its regional expansion; 2) weakness in oil prices; and 3) a pick-up in the global economic outlook.

The news
According to the Sydney Morning Herald, volcanic ash from the Chilean Puyehue eruption had reached Australia on Saturday night and is expected to linger in the next few days. Flights to and from Melbourne, Tasmania and New Zealand have been grounded, as airlines take no chances. On Sunday evening, Tiger Australia cancelled 12 flights and halted services in Australia until the situation improves.

Comments
Financial impact. Tiger has three bases in Australia, two in Melbourne (Avalon and Tullumarine). Management has decided to take precautionary measures by halting all services in Australia. Tiger Australia currently operates 10 aircraft, each with six scheduled flights per day. Depending on the period of service suspension, Tiger Australia could face losses of up to S$6.5m per week.

Minor speed bump to its Australian recovery. However, in our view, this event is but a minor speed bump in Tiger Australia’s recovery, with its longer-term prospects still positive. Management is managing capacity in Australia to limit losses.

Value emerging from recent sell-down. Tiger’s share price has taken some beating from its poor full-year performance, uncertainties from its regional expansion and CEO Tony Davis’s recent share sales. We believe most of the negatives are gradually priced in. With new capacity transferred to Asia, Tiger should be able to tap strong regional demand, and benefit from a lower-cost base. In addition, its quest for a second base in Asia, if successful, could possibly act as a share-price catalyst. Tiger is trading at 7.2x CY12 P/E, below the industry’s 4-year historical forward average. Its implied EV/EBITDAR is 6.6x, below the 7-9x range for high-growth airlines. We see value emerging.

Valuation and recommendation
Upgrade from Underperform to Neutral. While there may still be some downside risks from its regional expansion and high oil prices, Tiger is trading below peers and we believe the negatives are gradually priced in. We upgrade it to Neutral, albeit with a lower target price of S$1.40 after accounting for the flights grounded. We could rerate the stock again on favourable outcomes in its regional expansion; weakness in oil prices; and a pick-up in the global economic outlook.

Source/转贴/Extract/: CIMB Research
Publish date:13/06/11

Muhibbah Not the end of the road for APH (CIMB)

Muhibbah Engineering
TRADING BUY Maintained
RM1.90 Target: RM2.75
Not the end of the road for APH

APH receivership
The receivership status for the APH project as reported by SBT yesterday was a negative surprise. However, it should not be a major concern at this juncture as APH is likely to negotiate for more time to resolve the matter and rope in a new investor. The worst-case scenario for Muhibbah is a write-down of the c.RM300m due from APH, which would push Muhibbah into losses for FY11. However, there is no impact on RNAV as the amount is reflected as liabilities. As we view a write-down as remote at this juncture, we maintain our forecasts and RM2.75 target price, which is pegged to an unchanged 10% discount to RNAV. Notwithstanding this negative news, we continue to rate Muhibbah a TRADING BUY and one of our top picks for the construction sector. The main potential re-rating catalyst is project awards.

The news
Yesterday, Singapore Business Times reported that Asia Petroleum Hub (APH), the developer and operator of the APH oil terminal in Johor, has been placed under receivership. APH had secured in 2006 a RM1.4bn three-year bridging loan but has been looking RM2bn additional funding following the escalation of the project cost. According to sources, at end-2010, APH’s cumulative capital expenditure amounted to slightly over RM1.4bn and physical completion was 64%. APH has been put under receivership mainly because it could not come up with other investors to help fund the development and repay its debt. It has placed under a receiver, Malaysian accounting firm BBDO-Binder.

Comments
Receivership not enforced. Though this news is a surprise and would be perceived as negative for the resolution of additional funding for APH, we understand that APH is likely to negotiate for a further extension of time to allow it to continue its talks with a potential new investor. We also gather that although a receiver was appointed last month, there has been no change in management control. Receivership status typically involves a temporary transfer of control from the management to the appointed receiver. On the status of a potential new investor, we understand that APH is still in talks, probably with a new foreign party which would pump in the funds needed to restart the project. The indicative timeline is towards end-2011.

Status quo for Muhibbah. As one of the contractors for APH, Muhibbah was awarded the marine piling and jetty works worth c.RM820m. Cost escalation in 2008 led to funding issues for APH and the stalling of payments due to Muhibbah. The unpaid amount has accumulated to c.RM300m, which does not include RM187m worth of outstanding works as at end-2010. Muhibbah has not made any provisions for the project as the project is still deemed viable. A favourable outcome for the APH project would enhance Muhibbah’s net profit by an estimated RM12m p.a. in the form of interest savings from the RM300m outstanding from APH as Muhibbah separately funded the project.

The worst-case scenario for Muhibbah is a write-down of the c.RM300m due from APH, which would push Muhibbah into losses for FY11. However, we believe that in a scenario where the receiver takes over management of APH, it may come up with a scheme to repay a large portion of the amount due to contractors, which would reduce the risk of a huge write-down. While this latest development is a slight disappointment, we are not overly concerned as the group’s fundamentals are still intact, backed by the buoyant construction and oil & gas sector. Furthermore, the potential provisions would have no impact on RNAV as the amount is reflected as liabilities.

Details of APH
Project name : Asia Petroleum Hub (APH)
Project owners : KIC Oil and Gas (70%), Trek Perintis (10%)
Location : Reclaimed island off the coast of Johor
Land size : 40 ha
Objective : To meet demand petroleum storage and blending
: To complement Singapore which is the largest transhipment centre
Type of facility : Fully integrated oil terminal with storage facility
Storage capacity : 924k cubic metres
Other facilities/features : Large transhipment capacity and multiple jetties
: Handling vessels from 1k DWT coastal tankers 350k DWT ultra large crude carriers
: Capacity of handling 30m tonnes of petroleum products
Revenue at full capacity : US$20bn p.a.
Bridging loan granted : RM1.4bn (2006)

KIC Oil and Gas is a private terminal operator and bunker operator
Muhibbah Engineering is among the five companies under the project team
Muhibbah Engineering was awarded the c.RM820m job for marine piling and jetty

Valuation and recommendation
Maintain TRADING BUY. The receivership status for the APH project as reported by SBT yesterday was a negative surprise. However, it should not be a major concern at this juncture as APH is likely to negotiate for more time to resolve the matter and rope in a new investor. The worst-case scenario for Muhibbah is a write-down of the c.RM300m due from APH, which would push Muhibbah into losses for FY11.

However, there is no impact on RNAV as the amount is reflected as liabilities. As we view a write-down as remote at this juncture, we maintain our forecasts and RM2.75 target price, which is pegged to an unchanged 10% discount to RNAV. Notwithstanding this negative news, we continue to rate Muhibbah a TRADING BUY and one of our top picks for the construction sector. The main potential re-rating catalyst is project awards. Share price weakness as a result of the development would be a buying opportunity.

Source/转贴/Extract/: CIMB Research
Publish date:16/06/11

New Sunway entity expected to be listed - potential capitalisation RM3.5bil

The Star Online > Business
Thursday June 16, 2011

New Sunway entity expected to be listed - potential capitalisation RM3.5bil

By THOMAS HUONG
huong@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: A new Sunway entity is expected to be listed on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia in the third quarter of this year.

Sunway Group founder and chairman Tan Sri Jeffrey Cheah said the new entity would have a potential market capitalisation exceeding RM3.5bil, and be among the largest property and construction players in the region with a land bank of over 2,200 acres and total gross development value (GDV) of RM25bil.

About 90% of the land bank is in Malaysia, with the remainder in China, Singapore, Australia and India.

The new entity will merge the assets and liabilities of Sunway Holdings Bhd and Sunway City Bhd (SunCity) after shareholders of both companies agreed to the proposed deal at an EGM yesterday.



To recap, last November, a new company (newco) called Sunway Sdn Bhd proposed to take over Sunway and SunCity in a RM4.5bil deal via cash and share swaps.

Newco proposed to take over Sunway Holdings for RM2.60 a share and SunCity at RM5.10 a share, as well as buy Sunway Holdings and SunCity warrants at RM1.50 and RM1.29 respectively.

Under the deal, new shares in newco will be issued, valued at RM2.80 per share.

The takeover will be done via an 80% settlement in newco shares, and the remainder in cash, and Sunway Holdings and SunCity shareholders get free warrants on the basis of one warrant for every five newco shares.

After the merger, Cheah and the Government of Singapore Investment Corp (GIC) will have 45% and 12.5% stake respectively in Newco.

Presently, GIC has a 21% stake in SunCity.

Based on the financial results of Sunway and SunCity as at Dec 31, 2010, newco would have a paid-up share capital of RM1.29bil, assets valued at RM7bil and net debt of RM1.46bil.

Net assets per share in newco would be RM2.02.

A recent OSK Research report assigned a potential value of RM3.70 per share for newco, which the research firm said would be the fourth largest property stock by market capitalisation post listing.

Cheah said the merger would unlock synergistic benefits as better collaboration between the property development, design and construction arms could improve product quality and operational efficiency, and reduce costs.

“The larger entity also enables us to have scale and thus, bid for bigger and better projects. It can also optimise access to capital markets, command greater investor interest and lower financing costs through enhanced cash management,” he said.

Cheah said newco would have stronger focus on property projects in Singapore and China in the future.

In China, the Sunway group is presently involved in joint-venture property developments in Jiangyin City and the Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco City.



Source/转贴/Extract/: The Star Online
Publish date:16/06/11

Oil rally that began with Libya ends with Europe

Oil rally that began with Libya ends with Europe
Oil tumbles nearly 5 percent on stronger dollar, concerns of wider European financial crisis

Chris Kahn, AP Energy Writer, On Wednesday June 15, 2011, 5:35 pm EDT
NEW YORK (AP) -- The financial crisis in Europe is sending oil prices back to where they were four months ago.

Oil prices fell more than 4 percent Wednesday on worries that a financial crisis in Greece could spread, with European banks getting burned if the country defaults on its debt. That sent the dollar surging against the euro, another negative for oil. And the Europe news comes on the heels of recent U.S. economic weakness and signs of declining demand for oil and gasoline.

"Things are very unsettled right now," Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research, said. Three years after the banking meltdown in the U.S., investors remain skittish about banks, Lynch said. "Just a whiff of a crisis, and everyone's ready to bolt."

Benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude plunged $4.56, or 4.6 percent, on Wednesday to settle at $94.81 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That's the lowest level since late February, when a rebellion in Libya closed off that country's oil exports. Brent crude, which is used to price many international oil varieties, dropped $6.34, or 5.3 percent, to settle at $113.01 per barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

Riots broke out in Greece on Wednesday over proposed austerity measures as the government struggles with a simmering debt crisis. Moody's ratings service said it may downgrade three big French banks that face losses on Greek bonds. And the warning worried investors that Greece's problems could spread to other financially troubled European countries like Spain, Portugal and Ireland.

Europe consumes about 18 percent of the world's oil, and ongoing economic troubles there could slow demand.

The euro lost 2 percent against the dollar. Oil tends to fall as the dollar rises because oil is priced in dollars and becomes more expensive for investors holding foreign currencies as the dollar gets stronger.

Oil began a steady rise in February from about $84 a barrel after unrest swept through Libya and shut in its 1.5 million barrels of daily oil exports. Anti-government protests broke out in other countries in the oil-rich region and concerns grew that shipments from the biggest oil exporter in the world, Saudi Arabia, could be disrupted.

Oil hit a three-month high of $113.90 in early May but fell 17 percent in five days as experts warned high energy costs were slowing the global economic recovery. Gasoline demand in the U.S. fell as pump prices hit $4 a gallon or more in a number of states.

Concerns about Europe's economy rippled through Wall Street on Wednesday. Stock markets in the U.S. gave back all of the gains they made Tuesday -- and then some. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled nearly 179 points. The Standard and Poor's 500 and the Nasdaq dropped as well.

Oil traders ignored some good news. The Energy Information Administration reported that crude oil supplies in the U.S. shrank more than expected last week while wholesale gasoline demand increased. The EIA report showed that crude supplies fell by 3.4 million barrels. Analysts expected a decline of 1.9 million barrels.

The EIA said gasoline supplies increased last week, though much less than analysts expected. Gasoline demand increased slightly as well, but independent analyst Jim Ritterbusch said the U.S. continues to sit on a comfortable supply and relatively high pump prices should limit drivers' trips to the gas station.

"I just don't see demand improving for gasoline this summer on a sustained basis," Ritterbusch said.

Retail gasoline prices continued to fall, although they're still about $1 per gallon higher than a year ago. Gas fell almost a penny to a national average of $3.696 per gallon, according to AAA, Wright Express and Oil Price Information Service. A gallon of regular is 26.6 cents cheaper than it was last month.

Pump prices are expected to continue to drift lower this month, perhaps to a national average of $3.50 a gallon. Wednesday's big drop in oil, however, will not immediately be reflected at the pump since retail gas prices tend to trail oil by about two weeks.

In other Nymex trading for July contracts, heating oil fell 14.1 cents, or 4.5 percent, to settle at $2.9848 per gallon and gasoline futures lost 14.11 cents, or 4.6 percent, to settle at $2.9235 per gallon. Natural gas fell less than a penny to settle at $4.577 per 1,000 cubic feet.




Source/转贴/Extract/: yahoo.com
Publish date:15/06/11

Is the Bull Market Over?

Is the Bull Market Over?
by Mark Hulbert
Wednesday, June 15, 2011

A look at four different sentiment measures suggests that more pain may await investors.

Did the bull market end on May 3?

That was when the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 12807.51 — which, at least so far, is the Dow's closing high for the rally that began in March 2009.

Contrarian analysis can't rule out that possibility. In fact, the behavior of various sentiment indexes in recent months is disturbingly similar to what has happened on the occasion of prior bull-market tops.

At least that is what I found after analyzing four different sentiment measures. I looked at the Investors Intelligence weekly survey of newsletter sentiment, data for which extended back to 1963. Specifically, I focused on the ratio of bullish advisors in this survey to the total of those who are either bullish or bearish.

I also analyzed the sentiment index maintained by Hulbert Financial Digest (HFD). It represents the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of short-term stock-market timers who are monitored by the HFD.

I sifted through the American Association of Individual Investors sentiment survey. As in the case of Investors Intelligence, I focused on the ratio of bullish responses in the AAII survey to the total of those who reported that they are either bullish or bearish.

Finally, I focused on the Chicago Board Options Exchange's Market Volatility Index, or VIX.

I analyzed how each of these four sentiment indicators behaved on the occasion of past bull-market tops, using the precise definition employed by Ned Davis Research, the institutional research firm. I found that sentiment is remarkably correlated with the stock market.

In fact, in nearly half the cases studied, bullish sentiment peaked at almost the same time as the market -- within fewer than five trading sessions before or after. It rarely has peaked more than a month or two before or after the top.

Because of this close correlation, sentiment can be used as a reality check on whether a market top has indeed been registered. If more than a few months separate the peak in sentiment and the date of the closing high up until that point, for example, chances are that the final top has not been seen. Another sign that the top has not yet been registered: Sentiment has peaked at much lower levels than those that prevailed at prior tops.

Unfortunately, on both grounds it's hard to rule out the suspicion that the May 3 top could be the end of the bull market.

According to the Investors Intelligence data, sentiment peaked on April 5, 28 days prior to the exact day of the May 3 high. On April 5, the ratio of bullish advisors to those who were either bullish or bearish came in at 78.5%, higher than the average level of 76.2% that stood on the occasion of prior bull-market tops.

According to the HFD survey, sentiment peaked on May 3, the very day of the market's top. The average exposure level then stood at 67.2%, versus an average of 79.6% from prior market tops. According to the AAII survey, sentiment peaked on Dec. 23 of last year, or more than four months prior to May 3. The ratio of bullish responses in the Dec. 23 survey to those indicating that they were either bullish or bearish stood at 79.4%, higher than the 78.7% average from prior tops. According to the VIX, investor optimism reached its apogee on April 28, five days prior to the day of the top. The VIX on April 28 closed at 14.62, which is less than the 15.51 average from prior bull-market tops.

Notice that the extreme levels of investor optimism recently reported by the various sentiment indexes are, in three out of the four cases studied, actually higher than the averages seen at prior bull-market tops. Notice also that, in three out of the four cases, the sentiment peak came within only a few days of the market's top.

Can contrarian-oriented traders, nevertheless, find comfort in the equity fund flow data? You may recall that those flows provided one of the strongest contrarian-based supports for this bull market in 2009 and 2010, as mutual-fund investors in both of those years pulled more money out of domestic equity funds and exchange-traded funds than they put back in.

This year, however, the situation has changed. TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that, following net outflows of $46.9 billion and $51.9 billion in 2009 and 2010, respectively, this year (through June 8) there has been a net inflow totaling $28.8 billion. So we no longer have the strong wall of worry that the bull market last year was able to climb.

To be sure, this year's inflows are not as large as those seen at prior bull-market tops. So the flow data are not, in themselves, sending any contrarian-based alarm bells. But, by the same token, those data no longer are providing the strongly bullish foundation that they were in each of the past two years.

The bottom line? The sentiment data no longer provide strong contrarian support for a bull market. And a number of the sentiment indexes are, or very close to, flashing outright sell signals.




Source/转贴/Extract/: yahoo.com
Publish date:15/06/11

王冠一環球金融快線2011年6月13日







Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:13/06/11

Chinese property outlook downgraded due to excessive leverage by developers

Chinese property outlook downgraded due to excessive leverage by developers
04:47 AM Jun 16, 2011
HONG KONG - Standard & Poor's (S&P) ratings agency lowered its outlook on China's red-hot property market to negative from stable, citing increasingly challenging credit conditions due to regulatory tightening and leverage concerns.

China's property prices are expected to fall by 10 per cent over the next 12 months, with a 20-30 per cent dip less likely, S&P said.

It also noted that neighbouring Hong Kong might also see a sharp correction if interest rates rise too quickly.

"For the next 6 to 12 months, we feel that there are heightened risks (in China) because the leverage has really gone up substantially," S&P analyst Mr Bei Fu told a news conference.

"Given that (developers') leverage is already high, we really need to see their sales performance on track to maintain their current credit profile," Mr Fu said. "But right now, we feel our confidence over the market outlook on the effect on their sales is a heightened risk."

S&P's downgrade had a limited impact on Chinese property stocks, with the Shanghai property index ending down 0.26 per cent.

Hong Kong-listed China Overseas Land, the country's largest developer by market cap, fell 1.4 percent.

Chinese property developers have been actively issuing bonds abroad, tapping the high-yielding US dollar bond markets in Hong Kong, as they face problems raising money at home. The Chinese government is clamping down on property lending.

Chinese companies, many being developers, have accounted for more than a third of the $48 billion (S$59.3 billion) in G3 currency issuance from Asia, excluding Japan and Australia, so far in 2011, with high-yield credits at the forefront of that action.

"Offshore debt issuance and an increase in borrowing in anticipation of this downturn has actually weakened their capital structure," said Mr Christopher Lee, a director at S&P.

"If sales do not play up as planned, that means they will be under a lot of pressure in terms of cash flows and the ability to service some of their debt," said Mr Lee.

Some of the companies that face bigger refinancing risks included Glorious Property, Coastal Greenland and Shanghai Zhenda S&P analysts said.

Property prices in China doubled over the past five years in first-tier cities and a series of harsh market-cooling measures have been unveiled. These aim to restricti the number of apartments citizens can buy, raise the level of downpayments and they introduced a property tax.

Analysts said a hard landing in China's economy would be a huge risk for the sector.

"If the Chinese government continues to be very aggressive to fight inflation and inflation stubbornly remains high, it will affect the home buyers' sentiment," said Mr Wee Liat Lee, an analyst at Samsung Securities.

China, like many Asian countries, faces the threat of a property bubble, with S&P analysts saying implementation of government measures was key to stemming sharp price rises.

"Right now it's more of an implementation of what has been announced, rather than pushing out new policies," said Mr Fu.

"If the current policies have been strictly implemented in tier 1, 2 and 3 cities, that's very severe already," he added. Reuters


Source/转贴/Extract/: TODAYonline
Publish date:16/06/11

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

柏南克:勿迫政府砍預算 不提高舉債上限動搖市場

柏南克:勿迫政府砍預算 不提高舉債上限動搖市場

(華盛頓15日訊)美國聯邦儲備局主席柏南克表示,不該以美國舉債上限作為籌碼,逼迫政府削減預算;如果未能提高舉債上限,將「嚴重動搖」金融市場。


柏南克14日在華盛頓演講指出,利用觸及債務上限的最後期限來迫使政府做出某些「必要而艱難的財政政策調整」,這是完成「這項重要工作的錯誤工具」。柏南克說:「我們應當避免採取不必要的行動或威脅,因為這可能動搖投資者對美國政府償債能力和意願的信心」。

國會議員設法推動削減支出及預算改革,並且希望在8月2日前達成協議,提高目前為14.3兆美元的舉債上限。美國財政部表示,8月2日當天,美國政府將用盡所有的舉債權限。

柏南克表示,他本人敦促國會和行政部門,秉持誠信,迅速研擬並執行一套可靠的方案,以收長治久安之效。但他本人也希望,在不必訴諸寧為玉碎的嚇阻手段,或造成外界懷疑美國信譽的前提下,這套方案能於近期出爐。


Source/转贴/Extract/: Oriental Daily
Publish date:16/06/11

Singapore Press Holdings: Upgrade to BUY; awaiting capital deployment

Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) recently bid S$917m for a 99-year white site beside Jurong East MRT station and came just 5.4% below the top bid. We think management is committed to expanding their retail landlord business and could be interested in three GLS sites in 2H11, or TripleOne and 313@Somerset which are likely to come onto the market. We visited Clementi Mall and found that it has opened for operations smoothly with good foot traffic. Our S$4.32 fair value indicates an upside of 13.4% against the current price of S$3.81. Also, we think the downside is limited by an attractive dividend yield of 7.1%, which is underpinned by a core newspaper segment yielding solid recurrent cash. Upgrade SPH to BUY with a fair value estimate of S$4.32.

Almost got the Jurong Gateway site... A consortium, made up of Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) and United Engineers Limited, recently bid S$917m for a site beside Jurong East MRT station, and only 5.4% below the winning bid. This outcome was similar to a Bedok site auction in Sep 10. We think these strong tenders from SPH underline its desire to expand the retail landlord business. As of 2Q11, we estimate SPH to have a sizeable acquisition war-chest of S$1,265m, assuming a net gearing ceiling of 70%.

…but more GLS auctions to come. We think there are three sites in the 2H11 GLS supply that could be of interest to SPH. The commercial site beside Paya Lebar MRT, with a large GFA of 86,940 sqm, could have a significant retail component after setting aside the minimum office and hotel requirements. In addition, the commercial site beside Fernvale LRT could house a retail development with 26,400 sqm GFA - around the size of Clementi Mall. There is also a white site on the reserve list beside Novena MRT with potentially 19,400 sqm retail GFA after taking out the estimated minimum hotel requirement.

TripleOne and 313@Somerset potential targets? Market talk is that TripleOne Somerset is on the market for about S$1.2b ($2,132 psf NLA) and that 313@Somerset could be for sale as well. These may be interesting targets for SPH who could derive operational synergies between managing Paragon and any one of these assets, particularly 313@Somerset. Given the sizes of these assets, however, it is more likely for SPH to consider acquiring a stake or participating in a joint venture instead of acquiring these assets wholly.

Successful execution at Clementi Mall. Clementi Mall has opened for operations smoothly. The mall is fully leased with an average monthly rent of S$14 psf. Clementi Mall highlights SPH’s retail management capabilities in a suburban location and the market would likely view similar acquisitions favorably. We forecast annual revenue at around S$30m from Clementi Mall after 4Q11.

Upgrade to BUY on valuation. The current price of S$3.81 indicates an upside of 13.4% against our S$4.32 fair value. In addition, the downside is limited by an attractive dividend yield of 7.1%, which is underpinned by a core newspaper segment yielding solid recurrent cash. Look for accretive acquisitions to be positive catalysts in FY11-12. We are upgrading SPH to BUY with a fair value estimate of S$4.32.



Source/转贴/Extract/:OCBC Investment Research
Publish date:15/06/11

2011-0608-57金錢爆(血汗島傳奇3低版)









Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:08/06/11

Neptune Orient announces $1.91b of ship orders, upgrades

Neptune Orient Lines, Southeast Asia’s biggest container-shipping line, announced $1.54 billion in ship orders and upgrades as it adds larger vessels to pare operating costs on European and trans-Pacific routes.

The company ordered 10 ships, able to carry 14,000 containers each, from Hyundai Samho Heavy Industries Co. and two with capacities of 9,200 from Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co., it said in a statement today. The Singapore- based shipping line also enlarged 10 ships already on order at Daewoo to 9,200 boxes from 8,400, it said.

The 22 vessels, due to be delivered in 2013 and 2014, will replace less fuel-efficient ships and allow unit APL to add capacity as China boosts exports of auto parts and furniture to the U.S. and Europe. A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S in February ordered as many as 30 18,000-container vessels, the world’s largest, from Daewoo as shipping lines work to pare fuel usage following an 51% jump in prices in the past year.

Neptune Orient will use the 14,000-container ships, which will be its largest, on Asia-Europe routes, it said. The smaller vessels likely will be deployed on trans-Pacific services, it said.

The company, which has about 150 vessels, fell 5% to $1.53 in Singapore trading today, the biggest decline on the Straits Times Index. It has dropped 30% this year, the worst performance on the benchmark.

The shipping line has signed letters of intent for the orders, which still are subject to final agreements, it said.

The price of 380 Centistoke Bunker Fuel, used by ships, was little changed at US$668.50 a ton in Singapore trading today, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It was US$441.50 a year ago.





Source/转贴/Extract/: www.theedgesingapore.com
Publish date:15/06/11

通膨直逼6%‧中國升息難停

通膨直逼6%‧中國升息難停
Created 06/15/2011 - 19:25

根據彭博社報導,中國自去年9月以來的4度升息,未能抑制通膨壓力,顯示升息腳步暫緩的風險,因為惡劣的氣候恐進一步推升糧食價格。

中國在公佈消費者物價攀升5.5%,創2008年以來最大增幅後,宣佈上調銀行存款準備金率,回收經濟體系氾濫的游資。

法國興業銀行(Societe Generale)或瑞士銀行(UBS)皆預估,中國本月通膨將攀抵6%。

中國政府自最近一次的4月升息迄今,已暫停升息腳步10週,跌破巴克萊資本(Barclays Capital)等市場分析師眼鏡。在美國失業率破9%,亞洲地區製造業降溫之際,北京政府官員可能正在評估全球成長轉疲跡象。

今年內或再升息2次

瑞穗證券(Mizuho)首席經濟師沈建光接受彭博電視專訪時表示,“仍有漫漫長路要走。”曾任職IMF的沈建光表示,“我們必須見到經濟成長放緩。”沈建光預估,中國今年將再升息2次。

野村控股(Nomura)表示,中國本月可能升息,之後在第三季再升一次。巴克萊則預估中國今年將再升息一次,時間點落在6月或7月。

人行昨宣佈上調銀行存款準備金率半個百分點,自20日起生效。

然而,有利的基數效應可能有助中國抑制下半年通膨。

摩根大通(JP Morgan Chase)中國區全球市場董事長李晶指出,儘管如此,在通膨觸頂跡象明朗前,陸股反彈走勢恐難持續。極端氣候助長糧價漲勢,恐延後通膨降溫。

天災推高5月糧食價格
攀升11.7%

中國長江流域慘遭洪水氾濫後,又面臨乾旱蹂躪。在豬肉價格飆漲下,中國5月糧食價格較上年同期攀升11.7%。

中國自去年10月中旬以來,每隔1個月宣佈升息,最近一次升息是在4月6日生效。同時也上調存款準備金率至空前高點,並允許人民幣兌美元今年升值約1.6%。

中國經濟擴張腳步雖出現放緩跡象,但通膨卻進一步衝破政府4%的目標上限。印度、泰國、新加坡和馬來西亞等國工業生產成長即使減緩或滑降,也面臨物價高漲的壓力。

世界銀行(World Bank)預估中國今年經濟成長9.3%,所創造的工作機會料有助政府維持社會穩定。

瑞銀經濟師汪濤表示,“市場日益憂心中國經濟硬著陸,但最新數據顯示經濟成長仍強勁。”

中國今年前5個月的農戶以外固定資產投資擴張25.8%,相較於今年前4個月的25.4%。此外,5月零售銷售在通膨帶動下,攀升16.9%,相較於4月增幅17.1%。

索羅斯:通膨炙熱
中將硬著陸

身價億萬的投資名人索羅斯(George Soros)指出,中國已錯失抑制通膨的機會,現在恐面臨硬著陸的風險。

高齡80的索羅斯週二在奧斯陸(Oslo)一場會議上表示,中國這個全球第2大經濟體有點處於“泡沫中”,索羅斯說,有部份跡象顯示中國正在“失控”。

中國昨天公佈數據,顯示上月通膨率刷新近3年來最高紀錄,隨後宣佈上調銀行存款準備金率。儘管中國人民銀行自去年9月以來已4度升息,5月消費者物價年增率仍達5.5%,今年每月通膨率都突破當局設定4%目標。

索羅斯指出,中國引導經濟的手法“漸失動能”,他並表示中國的薪資物價通膨正開始浮現。

全球經濟
“完全沒有脫離險境”

索羅斯同時表示,歐美極力恢復成長無法根本解決失衡問題,全球經濟“完全沒有脫離險境”,銀行“並未適當重整資本結構”,“基本失衡現象未得到修正”。

索羅斯說,復甦前景蒙上陰影的因素在於“當權者沒有提供解決方案”。

他認為,歐洲尚未說服投資者單一貨幣體系奏效,歐元持續出現“根本性問題”。在德國帶頭擴張下,歐元區呈現“雙速”復甦,反觀接受紓困的希臘、愛爾蘭和葡萄牙則苦苦掙扎。

而在美國方面,決策人士試圖在創造就業的目標,以及降低負債水平的必要間,權衡兩者的重要性。

世界銀行(World Bank)上週下修今年全球成長預估,從1月的3.3%調降至3.2%。

索羅斯表示,已開發國家的經濟動盪促使他轉向非洲,他將非洲稱為“非常有吸引力的投資地區”,並表示他在當地“相當投入”。

索羅斯為資產規模約280億美元的索羅斯基金管理公司(Soros Fund Management LLC)董事長,他最為人津津樂道的事蹟,當屬1992年歐元尚未上路前,據傳他成功押注英國將無法保住英鎊在當時歐洲匯率體系的地位,藉此海撈10億美元。

羅奇:擔憂過度
中不會硬著陸

摩根士丹利亞洲非執行主席羅奇(Stephen Roach)說,全球面臨數年的“成長恐慌”,因為復甦依然疲弱不堪,難以緩衝週期性衝擊。

不過,他對中國經濟依然感到樂觀,並認為外界對於中國硬著陸的擔憂有些過頭。

全球面臨數年
“成長恐慌”

羅奇說:“大約在去年的這個時候,我們曾經歷了一次成長恐慌,今年又會重演,我認為我們未來幾年都會面臨成長恐慌。”他今日在上海接受彭博電視採訪。

股市自4月份以來大跌,因美國失業率上升、房價下跌,希臘瀕臨債務違約,日本在遭遇史上最強烈的地震後也在忙於災後重建,如此種種令市場擔憂全球復甦步履蹣跚。

昨日中國公佈的工業增加值數據和美國公佈的零售銷售都超過預期,可能緩解投資者的擔憂。

“週期性衝擊似乎常常來襲,打擊某些經濟體或是全球,當復甦疲弱的時候,你沒有一個緩衝墊來抵禦這種衝擊,”羅奇說,“如今油價上漲,歐元區身陷困境,美國樓市面臨另一波低潮,在加上日本的問題,你受到的衝擊肯定比平常更大。”

羅奇說他不同意他的朋友魯比尼的觀點。魯比尼是Roubini Global Economics主席,他認為中國在2013年後面臨經濟下滑,因為不良貸款和投資導致產能過剩。

羅奇說,中國經濟依然不錯。他補充道,中國政府有明確的戰略,希望轉變為內需推動的成長模式,並且對於通膨威脅也很警覺。

人民幣接近17年高點
貨幣緊縮政策持續吸資

人民幣兌美元接近17年高點,因預期全球第二大經濟體緊縮貨幣政策,可能推升人民幣資產的回酬率,吸引資金流入。

在中國人行今年第6次提高銀行存款準備金率之後,基準貨幣市場利率和2年期國債回酬率升至2月份以來的最高水平。

《每日經濟新聞》引述中國社科院研究員杜征征稱,人行可能在1個月之內升息。中國5月份消費物價上漲5.5%,創近3年高點。

加拿大豐業銀行旗下的投資銀行子公司Scotia Capital駐香港高級貨幣策略師Sacha Tihanyi說:“內地利率上升將增強人民幣的吸引力,增加人民幣的升值壓力。”

根據中國外匯交易中心的報價,人民幣兌美元週三在上海報6.4797元,6月8日曾升至6.4755元,創1993年末人民幣匯率併軌以來的最高水平。人民幣在香港離岸市場幾乎持平,報6.4760元。

對衝基金
開始做空人民幣

大多數投資者對於押注人民幣升值已是習以為常。但有些對衝基金卻對作為全球第二大經濟體的中國越來越不放心,他們認為人民幣勢必走軟。

得州沃思堡顧問公司Corriente Advisors的創始人哈特就在使用看跌期權作空人民幣。持有看跌期權合約的投資者有權(但沒有義務)在合約有效期內按執行價賣出一種貨幣。

擔心人民幣未來走勢的不只哈特一人。康州斯坦福諮詢公司Tempus Advisors的首席執行員Edward Grebeck表示,人民幣被低估的說法可能將成為歷史了。

雖然預計人民幣可能將因中國政府放鬆匯率管制而升值,但Grebeck提出,如果出現城鎮、酒店、住宅無人居住、道路上車輛稀少、資產由市政府把持、表外資產頻現的情況,那就要當心了。

Grebeck補充稱,這實際上就是2008年以來美國的狀況。房地產泡沫破裂後,中國人也得開動印鈔機刺激經濟。

長期以來,掌管Kynikos Associates LP的空頭投資者James Chanos和Eclectica資產管理公司的Hugh Hendry一直擔心中國過於火熱的房地產市場。

Chanos曾作空總部設在香港的中國房地產公司,但現在,對衝基金可能已將目標對準人民幣。

紐約一位管理著數億美元資產的基金經理最近解除了看漲人民幣的頭寸,轉而買進看跌期權。他認為中國官員正在賣出人民幣、買進歐元,在中國經濟增長放緩之際給出口商提供支持。歐盟是中國最大的貿易夥伴。

本月早些時候曾去中國訪問的Daniel J.Arbess認為,哈特低估了了中國的出口導向型經濟。不過他也不無憂慮,現在正使用看跌期權對他從2009年開始持有的人民幣頭寸進行對衝操作。Arbess負責管理Perella Weinberg Partners LP旗下的規模30億美元的Xerion基金。

不良貸款‧無法反映
國家財務穩健‧吸收壞賬

Arbess表示,雖然他總體上看好中國經濟,但現在的情況有點微妙。目前中國存在嚴重的資金配置不當問題,經濟中的不良貸款可能也超過銀行資產負債表所反映的水平,但中國國家層面的財務狀況十分穩健,應能吸收這些壞賬。

來自Corriente Advisors一位代表拒絕發表評論。但哈特在上個月的紐約Sohn投資大會上指出,中國貨幣供應增長強勁、嚴重依賴房地產、以及政府對信貸的嚴格控制都是讓人擔心的問題。一旦出現危機,外資可能會馬上撤離中國。如果經濟出現問題,中國政府可能傾向於通過本幣貶值來促進貿易。

最近發佈的經濟數據引起市場憂慮。

上個月發佈的一項調查顯示,中國5月份製造業擴張速度為10個月以來最慢水平;部份大城市住宅價格出現下降。

更糟糕的是,中國週二公佈,5月份消費者價格指數較上年同期上升5.5%,為2008年7月以來最大升幅。哈特上個月曾表示,有75%的中國人認為價格上漲已無法承受。

哈特表示,他考慮的另外一個問題是人民幣期權相對來說價格低廉。這是因為中國政府十分謹慎地管理人民幣匯率,而不是任其在市場力量的左右下浮動。這就降低了投資者通過買入期權來對衝風險敞口的必要性。

具體而言,週二,1年期美元兌人民幣期權的引申波幅約為4%¸而歐元兌美元期權引申波幅為13%。引申波幅是一項衡量期權預期波動性的指標。但哈特表示,一旦中國出現危機,美元兌人民幣期權引申波幅可能會躍升至18%左右,使1年期人民幣看跌期權的回報達到100:1。


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source/转贴/Extract/: biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:15/06/11

強勁內需力抗外圍風險‧大馬成長保5拼6

強勁內需力抗外圍風險‧大馬成長保5拼6
Created 06/15/2011 - 18:30

(吉隆坡15日訊)先是歐美經濟復甦告急,現在傳來中國經濟浮現放緩跡象等經濟挑戰,料對包括大馬的各經濟領域構成威脅,大馬未來數月的國際貿易或隨未來海外需求與出口訂單放緩而步履蹣跚,惟基於內需為國內經濟主力,全年仍有望保住5至6%經濟成長目標。

興業研究指出,國內經濟依然面臨外圍三大風險-歐洲債務危機、美國經濟復甦裹足難前與中國經濟“硬著陸”,儘管如此,相信全球經濟在當局採先發制人政策下有能力突破重圍,並在下半年表現轉強勁,進而推動大馬下半年經濟取得5.5%按年增長。

面對5月份消費者物價指數(CPI)按年成長高達5.5%挑戰,中國近期上調存款類金融機構人民幣存款準備率0.5%至21.5%歷史高位,掀起市場對中國需施行進一步的緊縮政策來壓制資產價格與通膨,可能意味經濟放緩的隱憂。

中國主要城市的住宅產業價告急,也引發經濟急速放慢並超預期的疑慮。匯豐與中國物流域採購聯合會的調查更顯示,中國製造領域成長迅速走低,加深中國經濟“硬著陸”的潛在恐懼,料對亞洲經濟帶來顯著衝擊。

根據達證券,就貿易方面,中國佔大馬整體出口與入口各11.7與12.2%,估計中國對大馬的出口與入口每受挫10%,將導致大馬出口與入口成長分別挫1.2與1.3%,因此,實質貿易盈餘可能走疲1%至1千178億令吉,實質國內生產總值(GDP)成長或也挫0.1%。

全年出口料增長5.3%

達證券也相信,全球對製造產品需求走疲下,大馬年內出口成長可能欲振乏力,估計全年出口僅按年增長5.3%,進口料成長4.8%,貿易餘額繼續錄1千190億令吉盈餘。

由於大馬國內生產總值大幅依賴國內需求,而非海外需求,達證券仍維持全年經濟成長6%的預測。值得一提的是,私人消費支出佔首季國內生產總值54.2%,而國際貿易僅佔11.9%。

興業也提到,國內生產總值成長雖放慢腳步,但國內需求依舊穩健,預計下半年經濟,在消費力增長與經濟轉型計劃執行力凝聚勢頭下“迎頭趕上”。

消費力主導下,興業估計下半年國內需求自上半年成長預測5.9%增速,按年成長6.1%,帶動全年增長6%,但仍較2010年成長6.4%低。

貨幣政策可支撐成長

儘管資金供應成長走弱,大馬貨幣政策有望繼續支撐下半年經濟成長。

由於海外組合資金可能在下半年逆轉,興業預見全年M3成長,自去年7%放緩至約6.8%。

興業也預計,今年銀行系統貸款與經濟成長放緩一致,適度擴張11至12%,淨減值貸款或在年杪改善至1.8%,比較去年杪為2.3%。

另一方面,財政與貨幣政策將持續支撐經濟成長,儘管政府未削減RON95油價津貼,興業相信,全年預算赤字佔國內生產總值5.4%的目標仍可期,主要是政府有望自高汽油營業額中受惠。

興業認為,只要油價保持每桶105美元,將不會動搖政府財政地位,主要是原油價每桶增1美元,政府營業料也增3億令吉。

政府首季營業額按年躍升38.5%,已顯示高油價利好。



歐美危機屬短暫
全球經濟下半年復元

除中國經濟疲軟風險,歐洲區主權債務問題重現再度威脅金融市場,美國近期經濟數據黯然失色下的經濟前景不穩,還引發“雙重衰退”擔憂,儘管如此,興業認為,這些影響短暫,全球經濟復甦在上半年屢碰壁後,可望在下半年的新經濟成長週期中展現活力。

此外,歐洲中行有意鼓勵希臘債券持有人回購債券,有望壓制債務問題惡化,而美國第二輪量化寬鬆政策(QE2)結束,或也意味經濟在無需第三輪量化寬鬆配套下,足以支撐復甦力。

興業相信,美國經濟走軟情況屬短暫,主要是原產品與汽油價急漲對消費力的影響力已逐漸降低,更重要的是,中國對風險率先採取應對措施,也可望避免經濟“硬著陸”。

另外,儘管日本可能在次季面臨另一季的經濟萎縮,但整體經濟正流露自低點復甦的動力,歸功於公司積極解決供應鏈問題,加上謹慎消費的情況已改善。

其他可能拖累全球經濟的阻力也在下半年減退,如中東北非(MENA)區域政治問題緩和,以及油價正常化、亞洲新興經濟體的通膨威脅減少。

興業認為,全球經濟復甦與全球電子產品週期提振,下半年電子與電器產品需求料恢復元氣,並築高國內出口,估計大馬下半年實質出口,自上半年估計的3%成長,按年上揚到3.7%,但全年出口仍預計放慢至成長3.4%,比較2010年為強勁反彈9.9%。

興業整體預見,下半年經濟在上半年放緩至成長4.5%後,重返軌道並按年成長5.5%,全年經濟成長則估計在2012年反彈5.5%前,先正常化至5%,但仍較2010年經濟成長7.2%低。下半年供應活動也估計回彈。

● 製造領域在國內外需求可期下,下半年預計按年增長6.4%,全年則放慢步伐至5.7%按年增幅。

● 服務領域因貿易活動、業務與消費力加強,下半年料按年成長5.9%,全年或按年成長5.7%。

● 建築活動在經濟轉型計劃養精蓄銳下,下半年或按年成長5%,全年可能放緩至4.8%按年漲幅。

● 農業生產受棕油生產復甦推動,下半年估計按年走強4.1%,全年預計按年成長2.9%。

● 礦物生產在原油與液化天燃氣恢復活力下,下半年有望按年走高2.4%,全年或按年走強0.7%。



馬幣年杪可保3.00

大馬經濟成長更俏麗,有望為大馬帶來更多經常賬盈餘,並持續為馬幣兌美元約3.00水平提供支撐,短期資金顯著逆轉風險仍可能促使馬幣短暫受挫。

美國快要結束QE2了,如果沒有QE3,市場預測國際資金持續由股市和商品市場撤離。

興業坦言,若投資者預期國行在下半年升息,馬幣有望獲得進一步的支撐,同時在海外組合投資正常化下,馬幣兌美元在年杪保持3.00水平將獲得基本支持。

興業也預計,馬幣兌美元或在明年杪進一步走強至2.80到2.90水平,歸功於國內經常賬盈餘持續。

興業預見,今年經常賬盈餘擴大到986億令吉,或佔人均國民總收入12.5%,同樣的,金融賬赤字預計進一步收窄,促使整體支付餘額取得高達516億令吉盈餘。

下半年通膨或攀3.8%

電費與工業天然氣價調漲的通貨膨脹壓力籠罩,下半年通膨率料自上半年的3.1%按年增幅,進一步升溫至3.8%,全年通膨率也料自2010年上漲1.7%,倍增至平均按年成長3.5%。

通膨情況惡化或催促國行在7月的議息會議升息,並可能在下半年提高隔夜政策利率25至50基點,促使利率返更中和水平3.25至3.50%水平。

興業也預見,銀行法定儲備率(SRR)也可能在年杪,調漲額外1%至危機前水平4%。

“原產品與燃油價提高,與經濟成長逐步加強,令國行擔心國內需求可能抬高下半年價格壓力。”

即使RON95油價保持,興業相信,電費、工業天燃氣、國際食品與原產品價在去年杪與今年初上調,都將導致通膨短期內節節上升。

鑒於核心通膨率、食品與非酒精飲料價急漲,4月通膨率加速至按年揚升3.2,創下連續第5個月攀升。


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source/转贴/Extract/: biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:15/06/11

Scrip dividends: win some, lose some

Business Times - 15 Jun 2011

Hock Lock Siew
Scrip dividends: win some, lose some

By MICHELLE TAN

SCRIP dividend schemes have proven to be a 'god-send' for Singapore banks, especially during the last financial crisis as the issue of shares in place of cash in dividend payouts helped shore up capital, bolstering the banks' balance sheets. And the success of such schemes continues to perpetuate past the recessionary era, with more listed companies in other industries jumping on the bandwagon as well.

As an example of the success, OCBC Bank saw in its latest scrip dividend scheme a healthy shareholder participation rate of more than 80 per cent.

However, is the advent of such schemes more of a one-sided benefit taken at the expense of shareholders or do the tables turn on the issuers at some point?

For starters, a scrip dividend is typically paid out in the form of new shares from the company, though a shareholder reserves the right to choose between a cash dividend or one in the form of shares.

From the shareholders' point of you, if all of them take part in a company's scrip dividend scheme - admittedly an unlikely scenario - the net effect is like the company having just declared a bonus issue and effectively no one would have received a dividend.

And for shareholders who opt for the cash option, they would have effectively 'sold' off part of their ownership in exchange for cash and face ownership dilution as a result of the issue of new shares to those who opted for the scrip option.

Having said that, it is not all bad for shareholders.

For one thing, scrip dividends are usually issued at a discount. Taking the local banks, for example, they usually issue scrip dividends at a 5 per cent to 10 per cent discount to a VWAP (volume-weighted average price).

If need be, shareholders who opt for the scheme can arbitrage on the price difference between the discounted and market rate if they choose to pocket hard cash, which at times may amount to more than the value of the said cash dividend.

More importantly, with the scrip dividend scheme in place, banks and other issuers do not need to slash dividend payouts or resort to undertaking an untimely share placement in a downturn and antagonise shareholders who look forward to dividends in times of financial turmoil.

Contrary to popular belief, not all issuers benefit from issuing scrip. For the local banks, the scrip dividend scheme was borne out of crisis when the need for higher capital buffers was paramount.

However, with all three banks now possessing high capital buffers, raising capital is not so much of a necessity anymore. In fact, continuing to issue scrip dividends to raise capital will have the effect of lowering a bank's return on equity, consequently weighing on overall valuations.

Since the average shareholder and the issuer both stand to lose in certain aspects, who is the real beneficiary of this clever 'dividend invention'?

Probably the majority shareholders. Majority shareholders can use scrip dividend schemes to raise and consolidate their overall stake in the company cost-efficiently.

Typically, in the event a majority shareholder plans to raise his stake in a company, he would have to purchase shares from the open market, which usually tends to trigger a spike in share price.

However with scrip dividend schemes, a majority shareholder can up his stake in the company at a discount, and more importantly at the issuer's expense, as there would always be some minority shareholders who would opt for a cash dividend and face dilutive effects to ownership.

Furthermore, with scrip dividend exercises taking place so frequently nowadays, majority shareholders are better able to avoid the costly process of going to the open market to increase their stake as often as previously required.

This brings us to the point that in life there will always be some winners and some losers in every situation, and sometimes one has to discern and make the best of each situation presented instead of mulling over the gains of others.



Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:15/06/11

胡立阳香港股神曹仁超:2319点牢不可破 入场正当时

胡立阳香港股神曹仁超:2319点牢不可破 入场正当时
2011年06月12日 11:27
来源:证券市场红周刊


——访亚洲股市教父胡立阳、香港股神曹仁超

《红周刊》记者 谢长艳

“只要沪指在2750点以下,投资者就可以逢低逐步建仓。”“沪指在2700点之下2300点之上,就是吸纳优质股的好时机。”本周市场探底本轮新低2672点,但胡立阳和曹仁超的看法一致,都认为现在入场正当时。

道指入眠 A股起床

《红周刊》:今年A股远远落后于道琼斯指数,本周四的跳水更让许多投资者惶恐不已。

胡立阳:美国股市开始调整了,A股就应该逐步转好了。因为A股和美国股市通常是跷跷板效应。去年我就提道,道指会在12900点附近出现调整。因为道指在金融危机后下跌的最低点是6469点,到12900点附近一定会遇到涨一倍卖压。如今道指果然在今年5月2日的12876点开始调整。

《红周刊》:道指调整了,资金就会流出美国股市,而流入中国?

胡立阳:是这样的,美国股市调整吸引力会逐渐下降,热钱就会流出寻找价值洼地。而A股表现一直疲软,对这些资金有很大吸引力。沪指自2008年跌到1664点后,早早在2009年8月就涨回了3478点的一倍卖压区,之后开始回调整理,始终未能越过3000点~3400点的压力带。所以说A股一直是早睡早起,现在美国股市开始休息,A股要起床了。

2319点牢不可破

《红周刊》:曹老师怎么看现在A股的调整呢?

曹仁超:上证指数[2716.80 -0.49%]由2010年11月11日3186点回落至最近2700点,跌幅近15%,此乃牛市二期正常现象。牛市一期由2008年11月开始,高点在3478点,然后回落到2319点结束。牛市二期低点不会低于牛市第一期低点即2319点,牛市一期高点迟早会被穿越。牛市二期通常维持两年,即2011年和2012年应该仍是牛市二期。经过长期上上落落后,估计到2013年才进入牛市三期。

《红周刊》:您怎么看通胀对A股市场的影响?

 曹仁超:估计今年5、6、7月份通胀率会达到高潮,8月或9月起回落。相信央行再有一次或两次加息,加息潮便完成。今年下半年,消费者物价指数应该开始回落,到时A股再恢复上升。

2700点附近都有机会

《红周刊》:那么现在就是进场的时候了?

胡立阳:没错,机会就在现在,2750点以下就可分批建仓了。用我的二分之一法则,涨一倍卖压3478点下跌到2319点,之后反弹到3186点又开始调整。2319点加上3186点除以2,就是2750点附近。如果用1664点加上3478点除以2就是2571点,如果真的跌到2571点,就是老天在送你捡便宜的机会。

曹仁超:每次沪指在2700点之下、2300点之上都可吸纳优质股票。牛市二期的底部在哪里或在哪一天,我不知道,但肯定在2319点之上。上证指数在2300点到3480点之间震荡仍会继续很长一段时间。

《红周刊》:现在A股被各种政策的利空所包围,好像找不出利好股市向上的理由?

胡立阳:这是投资者自己吓自己,每次股市下跌都会找各种理由去过度解读。其实股市有自己的春夏秋冬,我说的中枢价位就是其中的规律。我一向认为“岸边看海,波涛汹涌。山顶看海,风平浪静。”毕竟中国的GDP未来全球第一,这个毋庸置疑。

曹仁超:如你真的相信中国经济转型迟早成功,就应该利用每次股市回落,作为中、长线吸纳之用,每次冲高作抛售之用。

投资为主 减少投机

《红周刊》:现在可以进场,投资者应该买什么样的股票呢?

胡立阳:最好要选那些在主板的、市值比较小的、超跌的、并且有业绩支撑的股票。中小板和创业板就要谨慎些,做股票还是要以投资为主、减少投机。

 《红周刊》:怎么选择个股呢?

胡立阳:10日均线翻上、股票5天中涨4天,或是连续大涨3天,投资者就可以买入。

《红周刊》:之前采访胡老师都说何时买股票。这次您谈谈何时卖出吧?

胡立阳:沪指在3000点~3400点的压力带会反复接受考验,何时突破还得看市场表现。如果手中的股票出现调整信号也要及时卖出,卖出的方法是如果10日均线翻下或者股价由高点连续大跌2~3天,或是跌幅快速超过10%,只要出现其中一个条件,投资者就要警惕了。


Source/转贴/Extract/: 凤凰网
Publish date:12/06/11

SGX Commentary (Limtan)

SINGAPORE EXCHANGE
S$7.33-SGXL.SI
􀁺 At $7.33, SGX is at its lowest since Jun ’10 and 27.5% off it 2010 peak of $10.12 reached just before the announcement of the proposal to acquire / merge with ASX in Oct ’10.

􀁺 This could be attributed to a confluence of factors, both internal (s-chip scandals) and external (economic slowdown, Euro crisis).

􀁺 The resultant weak market sentiment caused recent IPOs (Hutchison Port) to perform dismally, as too trading volume.

􀁺 April and May (40 trading sessions) saw volume aggregating $60.29 bln, down 14.7% from the same period last year. The daily average of $1507.34 mln was also 10% lower than the Mar ’11 quarter’s $1679 mln ($104.1 bln total over 62 days), when SGX posted $77.34 mln underlying profit, excluding the expenses related to the ASX exercise (reported profit was $67.0 mln).

􀁺 The first 9 trading days this month however showed a 7.7% increase y-o-y.

􀁺 Trading interest on GlobalQuote has significantly waned, totaling only $66.43 mln in May or $3.3 mln a day! Nov ’10, first full month of the board, saw $802 mln worth of business or $38 mln a day.

􀁺 None of the above is however expected to jeopardize SGX’s final dividend payout when result for ye Jun ’11 re released in early August. We expect unchanged 12 cents variable dividend, which has been the case for the last 2 consecutive fiscal years, on top of the 4 cents quarterly rate..

􀁺 Total for ye Jun ’11 would therefore be 28 cents a share costing just under $300 mln (vs 27 cents for ye Jun ’10), for a 3.8% yield. This should provide strong support for SGX’s share price.

􀁺 Short of new initiatives that could boost trading and hence help the company break out of the $70-80 mln quarterly profit as for the last 6 quarters, we do not expect SGX to be in a position to hike the base dividend rate as it did for 5 straight fiscal years till now.

􀁺 As such, HOLD remains appropriate.

Source/转贴/Extract/: limtan
Publish date:15/06/11

中国上调存准引起负面情绪 海指回跌持平

中国最新公布的宏观经济符合预期,但央行随即宣布今年内第六次上调存准令市场感到意外,新加坡海指回跌持平。

  备受投资者关注的中国5月居民消费价格指数(CPI)涨幅创34个月新高,显示通胀问题仍然棘手,但工业和消费仍维持较低增速,显示宏观调控奏效,经济继续平稳回落。

  昨天下午中国央行在闭市后宣布年内第六次上调存准,表明紧缩政策没动摇。香港股市立即下挫,海指也受到影响。

  新加坡海指昨天以3060.13点开市,上触3069.34点,下触3040.22点,闭市报3057.39点,全天跌1.65点或0.05%。全天交易相当淡静,成交量仅超过9亿股,成交额超过12亿元。

  成分股方面以11只上升股对14只下跌股,由吉宝企业、新电信和丰益国际领跌。

  华侨证券研究认为,目前仍处整合阶段,预料中期内仍属熊市,直到海指能突破3100点。如果海指跌破3000点的关键心理水平,下一个支持点将是2920点。

  除了中国上调存准引起的负面情绪,对欧元区债务危机的担忧,也令投资者避险情绪升温。希腊对资金的需求上升,但和国内的政治势力无法达成协议,违约风险因此提高,评级机构标准普尔于周一将希腊主权评级下调三级至CCC。

  8月份原棕油期货在吉隆坡市场跌0.7%。相关股金光农业资源跌1分报66.5分,印多福农业资源跌3分报1.60元。

  吉宝企业跌20分报10.86元。辉立证券给予的评级从买入下调至持有,目标价设在10.84元

奥兰国际跌2分报2.64元。集团收购剩余新西兰农业系统乌拉圭有限公司股权的期限,从6月14日延后至6月29日。
  来宝集团跌1分报1.96元。集团献议每股0.50澳元或1亿3260万澳元买下澳大利亚钢铁商Territory Resources,较南非煤矿商Exxaro最近的献议价高出9%。星展银行研究建议“买入”,目标价为2.60元。


Source/转贴/Extract/: 联合早报
Publish date:15/06/11

S-chips in the doldrums

S-chips in the doldrums
by Ryan Huang Wenwu
04:47 AM Jun 15, 2011
SINGAPORE - The share prices of Singapore-listed Chinese companies continue to languish as the S-chips, as they are commonly called, are undermined by scandal after scandal.

Just last week, mainboard-listed China Milk Products Group became the latest to join the list of companies whose shares have been suspended while they are being investigated for accounting irregularities.

The FT ST China Index, which tracks Chinese companies listed in Singapore, hit new lows in recent weeks, underperforming the wider market. From the start of the year, it is down about 11.1 per cent, compared to the 4.2-per-cent decline in the benchmark Straits Times Index.

Besides the hit to the reputation of S-chips as a group from the likes of China Milk, there are also broader forces at play.

Mr Terence Wong, co-head of research at brokerage DMG, said: "There was a confluence of factors. One of the key ones was that if you look at the economy or the macro factors, things have not been going all that smoothly this year. And when there is uncertainty, there is typically a flight to quality. So, in such cases, the blue chips will do better than the small caps where the S-chips are predominantly under."

Still, some market watchers say there are gems among the S-chips and current values may present an investment opportunity.

According to DMG, some of the S-chips it is bullish on include those in high growth sectors - such as agriculture and environment - and with credible management and track records. The brokerage has Buy ratings on vegetable processor China Minzhong and vaccine producer China Animal Healthcare.

The increased scrutiny over S-chips is also expected to weed out the riskier counters.

SIAS Research analyst Liu Jinshu said: "In this environment of heightened scrutiny, the fact that they still managed to obtain a clean audit opinion from the auditors suggests that some of these S-chips are still healthy and their financial statements are still accurate."

Source/转贴/Extract/: TODAYonline
Publish date:15/06/11
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
  • Selected Indexes 52 week range

  • Margin of Safety

    Investment Clock

    World's First Interactive Investment Clock