Saturday, May 28, 2011

與時拼經.佈局下半年投資 馬股6月或重現生機

財富經
28/05/2011 17:12
全球經濟在2011年繼續以多種速度復甦,即將踏入下半年,美國復甦步伐將領先其他發達經濟體,新興市場則面臨不斷上升的通脹威脅,及利率升高,西方貨幣政策將維持促進經濟增長的立場。
我國當然也是“一份子”,身處“高通脹、利率趨升”的大環境,國家經濟發展的指標之一馬股市,在上半年也給予“很大”反應,走勢極度“耍情緒”。

不過,這一切看似都在資本投資規劃師葉大衛的掌握中,年初他測出,今年外圍多災多難,比較寒冷和多雨水,小心曇花一現的現象。

果然,回顧富馬隆綜指自1月份衝高至1574.49點歷史高點后,迄今接近打回原形,回落到去年底水平。

距離下半年僅一個月,投資者是時候佈署下半年策略。

指數運行看,6月份富馬隆綜指將在月初謹慎反彈,但很快將在20至24日出現調整,投資者要在這5天把握佈局機會,享受7月份、8月份和9月份、下半年的漲潮!

 葉大衛年初接受《中國報》專訪時說,馬股今年的數字密碼是3、6、9,全年最敏感和變盤月份。

 當時他指出,3月最有可能變盤的週期是7日至10日,及20日至23日。

 事實確是如此,富馬隆綜指3月1日先以高漲10.99點打開當月走勢,之后在10日、11日、14日和15日,連續4個交易日走低,累積跌幅39.55點。

 一輪“小跌潮”后,迎來令人意外的“大漲潮”,3月16日至31日合計漲幅60.99點,最后以1545.13點結束月份走勢,全月漲了42.89點。

 若投資者及時在下跌的4個交易日間補貨,再于月底前出貨,短短半個月已有賺幅。

調整也是好時機

 如今,葉大衛再為馬股下半年把脈,根據大自然生態,馬股6月份將出現3月份的格局,出現幾率將高達70%。

 “6月初將呈反彈衝高走勢,在20日至24日稍作休息晉盤整期,這時正是投資者需要佈局,以進入7月份、8月份和9月份的漲潮。”

 但他也提醒投資者,若6月份馬股未有調整,往后的3個月份將面臨下行,需加倍小心。

 葉大衛說,最近走勢都在1490點支撐水平上波動,表現穩定。如果在6月份不幸跌破,將有明顯的跌勢。

 “不過,對未來可能的調整格局,也不必過于悲觀,恰好造就進場買股的大好時機。”

 他重申,今年不是投資年,進場機會不多,時間非常短速,要懂得把握,但要有明確的投資策略。

漲潮不持久虛有吐氣
上半年馬股已呈“兔”氣揚眉,和“兔”飛猛進格局,投資者下半年要引以為鑑,小心為上。 

 葉大衛2月份以“兔”氣揚眉,和“兔”飛猛進,形容今年的馬股。

 “吐”氣揚眉除了是“吉祥話”,也可解讀為,馬股漲潮是一口虛有和不實際的“吐氣”。

 “突”飛猛進,表示“突然”走高的股市,不能夠持久。

 翻看今年首5個月的走勢,發現富馬隆綜指自1月17日漲至歷史新高1574.49點后,往后多半起伏不定,截至5月20日,指數僅稍比去年封關水平高出22.12點,相較漲幅一度達到55.58點。

 此外,1月3日至7日連續5個交易日創下史上新高,可是在18日至26日以6連跌作回禮。

 這反映當時的漲勢是虛有的“吐氣”,不持久。

漲交投愈弱市值愈高
過去4個月出現“奇怪”的現象,大盤成交量連月下跌,馬股市值則增加中。

 數據顯示,1月份馬股總成交量達406億8650萬股,2月份降至315億643萬股,3月份減至298億8100萬股,4月份再減到272億9023萬股,成交量連續4個月萎縮。

 然而,馬股市值卻逐漸攀升,1月份達1兆2839億8000萬令吉,2月份稍回落至1兆2567億1000萬令吉,3月份增至1兆3109億9000萬令吉,4月份穩定在1兆3107億9000萬令吉。

 數據反映,即使1月份的成交量是最龐大,馬股市值也不及4月份“交投低靡”之時。

 這表示,當外圍因素不確定時,投資者皆改變投資策略,將資金轉向特定藍籌股或表現穩定的股項,集中投資,部份股的股價因而受到刺激,帶動整體市值向上。


令吉升值近尾聲
令吉的運勢今年將走盡,明年要把舞台讓給美元。

 葉大衛說,令吉上半年衝破3.00水平,若漲勢持續,並非好事,需加以控制。

 “早前,令吉成功敲破2.90,接著頂多是小刀踞大樹嘗試上敲2.80,惟這股‘氣息’不會持久。”

 他指出,若令吉要持續升值,必須要在今年“完事”,皆因明年將是美元上場的一年,美元會走強,進而影響令吉表現。

 在通脹壓力催化,加上市場臆測國家銀行將通過升息克制通脹,帶動令吉兌美元匯率在4月25日闊別13年后,首次升破3水平。

 這是1997/98年亞洲金融風暴,以及令吉與美元脫鉤以來,令吉首次突破3。

 隨著國行提前在5月5日調高隔夜官方利率(OPR)至3%后,馬上終止市場消息炒作,令吉隨之下跌至3以上,走勢曇花一現。

 葉大衛說,如果令吉今年衝高無果,將在年底走近上升尾聲。

原產品短暫回落長期看俏
今年是原產品的“陽年”,價格目前只是暫時走下波,很快將恢復氣勢如虹。

 自日本爆發嚴重地震后,原油價格過去數週大幅下跌,整體方向變不確定,增加走勢的波動。

 紐約原油期貨價格在5月2日創下每桶近115美元(約345令吉)后,直線下滑,單是5月份已挫跌近13%,徘徊90美元(約270令吉)水平多時。

 由于美國將進入夏季開車季節,原油需求自然增加,帶動7月份原油期貨價格在5月20日重新站上100美元(約300令吉)。

 這就是葉大衛所指的,要漲跑不了,要跌逃不了。

 他說,今年是原產品走紅的一年,即使間中受一些外圍因素影響,也將迅速調整過來,出現力彈。

 “原產品的泡沫週期,是否爆破,2012年是關鍵年;金價油價或在這年‘破功’。”

魚的投資策略 買在魚尾賣在魚頭
葉大衛說,股票投資就像買魚,並奉勸不是人人有機會吃“魚頭”,貪心的話一個不小心會隨時啃到。

 他在授教魚的投資策略時說,以散戶的最愛IOI集團(IOICORP,1961,主要板種植)為例,2009年2月因遠期外匯(foreign exchange forwards)操作不當蒙受龐大外匯虧損時,公司股價寫歷史低點,每股約2令吉,當時投資者是買在“魚尾”。

 “股價漲至逾4令吉,稱之魚身,而早前高漲到6令吉,則是魚頭部位。”

 他指出,不是所有人會吃“魚頭”,這表示要在最高價脫手很難;如果明知道無法啃魚頭,就應在“魚身”時安全脫售。

 葉大衛說,大豆油和原產品價格近期回跌,故拖累IOI集團,此現象告訴投資者可分批買入,先在5月份的5.10令吉價位買進,再于6月份的4.20至4.30令吉,買進第二批。

2012非末日 是投資年
2012年不是世界末日,而是投資好年!

 葉大衛說,今年的投資比較難佈署,漲勢和跌勢不明顯且短暫,僅數天時間供“下手”,使今年的投資策略是不能久留,不能眷戀,要適時“放手”,待另一時機出現時再“出手”。

 眼明手快的投資者,自在今年有斬獲,若反應較慢的投資者,也無需失望,可寄望來年。

 他指出,市場都談論2012年是世界末日,相反明年會是投資大年,將出現明顯的進場和出場格局。

 “一年下來會有幾個月段大幅下跌(進場),之后再大力反彈(退場),過程比較長,不及今年必須數天內補貨。”

 葉大衛是利用“東方訣數”,一套涵蓋“密碼”、“實戰”、“管理”和“修為”四大層面的全面投資技術。


Source/转贴/Extract/: 中國報
Publish date:28/05/11

息高價穩誼來魅力加分

股價和股息表現同樣出色的誼來(YILAI,5048,主板工業股),顯然能夠為投資者帶來不錯的回酬,比其他小資本股更勝一籌。


誼來是一家以瓷磚製造和貿易為主的公司,其瓷磚是以Alpha-Tiles的商標為名。在嚴峻的競爭環境下,誼來將會持續通過提升營運和生產效率,以及成本管理維持其在未來兩年的成長動力。

《資匯》發現,誼來派息相當大方,而週息率(Dividend Yield,DY)亦相當高,同時,亦是一些投資銀行的心頭好。此外,其股價在過去兩年的表現亦相當出色,更讓該股增添魅力。

誼來是一家小資本股,其股票數額僅有1億6000萬股,每股面值0.50令吉,因此,繳足資本為8000萬令吉,而市值則是1億4480萬令吉,比同行-白馬控股(WTHORSE,5009,主板工業股)和金興工業(KIMHIN,5371,主板工業股)的市值分別低出68.90%和28.65%,白馬控股和金興工業的市值分別達4億6560萬和2億零294萬令吉。然而,誼來的表現卻不落人後,吸引人的週息率及跑贏大市的股價表現,都成功超越其他小資本股的表現。

投資成本低回酬高

誼來在過去5年都派發不俗的股息,最低有每股6仙,而在2010財政年則派發7仙,按每股0.84令吉股價計算,週息率達8.3%,派息額占總淨利73.6%。

僑豐投行分析員認為,該公司會維持把七成淨利用來派息的作風,在淨利和股價保持不變下,週息率可達9%。

基本上,這對於一家面值50仙的公司已算是不錯的水平。這比其他兩家同行都來得高。此外,該股亦被僑豐投行列入高股息股項的行列。

Source/转贴/Extract/: Publish date:

鲁比尼:财政紧缩已“脱轨” 希腊不得不重组债务

2011/05/28 5:29:19 PM
●南洋商报

(纽约28日讯)美国纽约大学经济学教授鲁比尼表示,希腊将被迫进行债务重组,不过这将是一个有序展开的过程。

他补充道,希腊的财政紧缩计划已经“脱轨”,当局无理由继续白费资金、进一步向希腊提供救助。

他表示,希腊债务重组,不会导致西班牙无法从资本市场上融资。

鲁比尼说,若欧元涨至1.50美元,将给负债累累的欧元区外围国家带来严重的问题;从欧元区的经济状况来看,欧元汇率达到1.40美元也是不合理的。


Source/转贴/Extract/:南洋商报
Publish date:28/05/11

欧元区债务危机恶化 经济信心连跌3个月

2011/05/28 5:28:38 PM
●南洋商报

(布鲁塞尔28日讯)欧洲5月经济信心连跌3个月,反映欧元区债务危机恶化,大宗商品价格上涨不利经济增长。

欧盟执委会在布鲁塞尔指出,欧元区的企业主管、消费者信心5月份跌到105.5,相较于4月的106.1。

根据彭博调查27位经济师中位数预估为105.7。

欧元区第1季经济出现近一年来最佳成绩后,已经出现趋缓迹象。

政府减少支出,并加税以削减财政赤字,油价带动通胀攀升压缩家庭收入。5月欧洲制造业增长趋缓,德国投资人信心下跌高于预期。

经济增长趋缓

“增长率还是和经济复苏同步,但是迈向趋缓,”苏格兰皇家银行驻伦敦经济师Silvio Peruzzo说。“还不是要担心的时候。只是趋向正常化的过程,不是表示经济增长突然消失。”


Source/转贴/Extract/: 南洋商报
Publish date:28/05/11

傳雲頂20億攫取泛馬彩

Created 05/28/2011 - 18:35

(吉隆坡28日訊)由雲頂(GENTING, 3182, 主板貿服組)領軍的財團據傳已“接近”攫取丹絨(Tanjong)旗下待脫售的博彩業務--泛馬彩(PMP),收購代價料達20億令吉。

市場消息透露,該財團會先祭出5億令吉,其中2億5千萬令吉將由雲頂承擔;剩餘15億令吉則將透過融資取得。

雖然預期收購計劃將由雲頂集團展開,但也有傳言指雲頂掌舵人丹斯里林國泰將以“私人名義”進行相關投資。

“所以,目前仍無法掌握是雲頂旗下公司負責收購活動,或是由私人工具進行。”

除了林國泰,據傳該競標財團的成員還包括丹絨大股東丹斯里阿南達克里斯、丹斯里鄭金炎、丹斯里郭令燦及丹斯里鍾廷森。

根據瞭解,丹絨接獲各方的競標價介於18億至25億令吉,潛在的競爭對手則包括拿督葉永松、角子機營運商鄭氏家族和菲律賓博彩大亨安賓等。

消息人士認為,雲頂領軍的財團出線的原因,除了競標價,也基於將慈善因素融入競標建議中,將部份盈利作為慈善用途。


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Source/转贴/Extract/: biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:28/05/11

This business of sustaining growth...

Business Times - 28 May 2011

SHOW ME THE MONEY
This business of sustaining growth...

Bigger companies here have a better chance at it

By TEH HOOI LING
SENIOR CORRESPONDENT

MCKINSEY Quarterly had an article recently on the real picture of sustaining top-line growth. 'Many leaders set unrealistic growth targets,' the article noted. 'Often, they don't properly consider how fast their underlying markets are growing and thus how much market share must be grabbed to meet ambitious goals. Or they ignore the likelihood that their competitors are doing many of the same things to grow. They also underestimate the ongoing need to find new products to replace revenue declines from current offerings as they mature.'

A historical look at corporate performance puts the growth challenge into perspective. McKinsey showed the real revenue growth distribution for large non-financial companies from 1997 to 2007. The consultancy ended the analysis in 2007 to avoid distortion resulting from the severity of the recession that began that year.

According to its data, the median revenue growth rate was 5.9 per cent. About one-third of these companies increased their revenues at rates faster than 10 per cent. But that one-third figure probably overestimates organic growth, since it includes the effects of acquisitions, noted the consultancy.

It also presented a second chart which showed real 1965-2008 revenue growth for the 500 largest non-financial companies in the United States.

The median was 5.4 per cent a year. Although the rate fluctuated from one per cent to 9 per cent according to the economy's health, there was no upward or downward trend and thus no rising tide to lift growth over the longer haul, it noted.

During that period between 1965 and 2008, median GDP (gross domestic product) growth in the US was 3.2 per cent, meaningfully lower than the corporate revenue growth rate. The additional growth was a result of globalisation. As at 2008, 48 per cent of US companies' total revenues came from outside the country. That portion of the revenues has been growing much faster than their US revenues.

Many companies are counting on global growth, particularly in emerging markets, to go on driving them forward, noted McKinsey. But a rising number of companies around the world are competing for a share of that momentum, cautioned authors of the report.

Finally, they highlighted that there are a number of casualties of the growth game as well. According to them, beginning in the mid-1970s, a quarter of all the large companies it studied actually shrank in real terms in a given year. 'In fact, many mature companies will get smaller in real terms. In related research, we find that a startling 44 per cent of all companies that grew at rates faster than 15 per cent from 1994 to 1997 were growing at rates lower than 5 per cent ten years later,' it said.

The report made me curious about Singapore companies. How has the growth rate of Singapore companies been like over the long term?

So I downloaded the list of companies as at Dec 31, 1990, and their respective market capitalisations. At that time, there were 18 companies with market cap of $1 billion and above. I grouped them as the tier-one companies.

In this group are SIA, DBS, OCBC, UOB, Keppel, Hongkong Land, Jardine Matheson, SPH, City Developments, Dairy Farm, F&N, Jardine Strategic, Singapore Land, Asia Pacific Breweries (APB), OUE, Sembcorp Marine and Jardine C&C.

I then downloaded these companies' revenue per share, earnings, free cash flow (FCF), and dividend per share from 1991 until 2010. From there, I calculated the annual compounded growth rate of all these measures over 10-year blocks. Chart 2 shows the median growth rates of the various metrics for this group of companies.

As you can see, this crop of companies has done rather well. Their growth rates have accelerated rather sharply in the last five years. As at last year, the median compounded annual growths for their revenues, earnings, FCF and dividend per share were 9.8 per cent, 17 per cent, 20 per cent and 6.5 per cent respectively. That's higher than the numbers reported by the McKinsey study for US companies. But then again, our sample is small.

On the whole, it were the Jardine Group of companies, Keppel Corp, F&N and APB, Singapore Land and Sembcorp Marine which pulled up the averages. Among the banks, OCBC is the best performer with a 5.9 per cent growth in revenues per share and 9.3 per cent a year increase in earnings per share over the last 10 years.

The corresponding number for UOB is 2.7 per cent and 6.9 per cent. DBS is the laggard, with -0.8 per cent and -3.2 per cent decline a year in its revenue and earnings per share, compared with 10 years ago. It fared worse than SPH which has seen its market threatened by the emergence of new media. SPH managed to grow its revenue per share by 4.2 per cent a year in the last 10 years, and its EPS by 3.2 per cent a year.

Roughest patch

Among this group of companies, SIA is the one going through the roughest patch in the last two years. Its EPS has fallen by 4.3 per cent a year compared with 10 years ago.

Meanwhile, Hongkong Land, Jardine Matheson, and Jardine Strategic have the perfect record of chalking up positive FCF every year for the past 19 years. FCF is cash-generated by the business after deducting capital expenditure. As for APB, SPH and Dairy Farm, they only have one negative FCF year since 1991. All took place in the 1990s.

The next batch of stocks had market caps ranging from $166 million to $986.5 million. There were 34 of them back in 1991. In this group are companies such as Natsteel, UIC, Keppel Land, NOL, Hotel Properties, Great Eastern, Cerebos, Wheelock, United Engineers, Metro, Wing Tai, GP Batteries, Kim Eng, GK Goh, Yeo Hiap Seng, Lum Chang and Genting Singapore.

From the names you can guess that this group generally didn't do as well. Chart 3 shows the median sales, earnings, FCF and dividend per share of this group of companies for 10-year blocks since 2001. The performances are more patchy, possibly because there are quite a number of property stocks in there. But their earnings expanded healthily in the last five years, but not so the revenues.

Still the growth for all the metrics pales in comparison to that of the blue-chips companies.

In this group, the most consistent performer is Great Eastern Holdings. But even then, its growth has tapered off somewhat in the last three years. Great Eastern and Cerebos are the only two companies which have a perfect record of positive FCF every year for the last 19 years.

So there you have it. In a globalised world, larger companies - in the Singapore context - have a better chance of sustaining their growth. Although it is highly unlikely that they will repeat their 17 per cent median EPS growth a year for the next 10 years.

Because of their size and stability, this group of companies also generally trade at a premium. The way to get outsized return from them is buying them during a market crisis.

Meanwhile, the second-tier companies are not as expensively priced. If you are able to uncover a company which can hold its own and sustain its growth for a number of years, then you will be very well rewarded.

However, it is no easy task finding these companies. To me, buying blue chips in a crisis is much more straight forward. But always beware of any structural change that may have eroded their competitive edge.

The writer is a CFA charterholder


Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:28/05/11

Emerging stock funds see outflows

Business Times - 28 May 2011


Emerging stock funds see outflows

EMERGING market equity funds reported a second consecutive week of outflows as escalating concerns over Europe's sovereign debt crisis dented demand for riskier assets, according to Citigroup Inc.

Funds investing in developing nation stocks lost an overall US$1.03 billion during the week ended May 25, compared with net outflows of US$1.64 billion the previous week, Citigroup analysts led by Markus Rosgen said in a report yesterday, citing data compiled by EPFR Global.

'Investors remained cautious amid lingering credit concerns in Europe,' the analysts wrote.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 2.92, or 0.3 per cent, at 1,136.29 as of yesterday morning, set for a fifth straight weekly slump that will be its longest losing streak since October 2008. The gauge has lost 5.6 per cent this month, more than the 4.4 per cent slump in the MSCI World Index of developed nations.

Officials from the European Union, IMF and European Central Bank are set to end next week a review of Greece's progress in meeting bailout terms.

Still, Lyxor Asset Management, the wholly owned unit of Societe Generale, increased developing nation shares to 5 per cent of portfolio holdings 'a few weeks ago' from almost nothing at the start of the year as valuations become more attractive, Mathieu Vaissie, a senior portfolio manager, said in an interview in Singapore on Tuesday.

MSCI's emerging markets stock gauge is valued at 11.1 times estimated profits, compared with a multiple of 12.8 times for the developed countries measure, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. -- Bloomberg



Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:28/05/11

Perennial China to raise $776.2m in IPO

Business Times - 28 May 2011


Perennial China to raise $776.2m in IPO

Firm confirms that its units will be priced at 70cents each

By EMILYN YAP

PERENNIAL China Retail Trust (PCRT) will be raising $776.2 million in gross proceeds from its initial public offering.

It confirmed yesterday that its units will be priced at 70 cents each - at the bottom of the indicative range of 70-76 cents. This is in line with what Reuters reported on Thursday.

'We had a much stronger book at the lower range,' said Pua Seck Guan, CEO of PCRT's trustee-manager. By pricing units at that level, 'we think we leave (a) few cents on the table . . . hopefully we give investors a better return'.

PCRT has been been on market watchers' radar for several months. It was due to list earlier at $1 a unit to raise some $1.1 billion but plans were shelved in March, reportedly due to volatile market conditions.

But bad news, ranging from deepening sovereign debt problems in the eurozone and worries of slower growth in China, have continued to hit equity markets this month.

Based on the offer unit price of 70 cents, PCRT is expected to provide an annualised distribution yield of 5.3 per cent for Forecast Year 2011 and 5.51 per cent for Projection Year 2012.

The gross proceeds are expected to come from the offering of 563.6 million units and the issuance of sponsor as well as cornerstone units.

The 563.6 million units include around 52.1 million in a Singapore public offer, which opens today and closes on June 7. Trading is expected to start on June 9. There will also be an international placement of 511.45 million units.

Trust sponsor Perennial Real Estate will subscribe for $20 million worth of units for a 3.7 per cent stake.

PCRT's IPO has drawn eight cornerstone investors, including CB Richard Ellis Global Real Estate Securities, Henderson Global Investors and Prudential Asset Management (Singapore). The eight will together own 46.1 per cent of PCRT.

PCRT will have an initial property portfolio of around $1.1 billion, comprising five assets in Shenyang, Foshan and Chengdu. These include Shenyang Longemont Shopping Mall and Shenyang Longemont Offices.

With the listing now on track, PCRT will be focusing on growth next. Mr Pua is looking to 'very quickly activate' the options to purchase two commercial developments projects which are directly connected to high speed rail stations in Chengdu and Xi'an.



Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:28/05/11

Analysts flag risks to Cosco order book over Sevan Marine's woes

Business Times - 28 May 2011


Analysts flag risks to Cosco order book over Sevan Marine's woes

But accords are with Sevan Drilling, not the parent, some say

By LYNN KAN

AFTER dispelling investor worries stemming from a financial irregularity report on its parent company, Cosco Corporation (S) may find itself having to battle investor fears over potential financial trouble at Sevan Marine, the parent of its customer Sevan Drilling.

Analysts flagged risks to Cosco's order book after oil services group Sevan Marine withdrew plans for a US$275 million rights issue after its share price plummeted over 60 per cent on the Oslo Stock Exchange (OSE) since May 20.

Sevan Marine also reportedly said it anticipated being in breach of its minimum liquidity requirements by May 31 under an existing financing agreement.

Sevan Marine's woes are darkened further with the resignation of Jan Erik Tveteraas as a Sevan Marine board member and as CEO of Sevan Drilling for personal reasons.

Why do analysts flag risks to Cosco's order book?

Orders from Sevan Drilling make up an estimated 10 per cent of Cosco (S)'s US$5.9 billion order book.

Cosco is currently building one rig, Sevan Brasil, for Sevan Drilling. DBS Vickers said the rig is about 30 to 40 per cent completed.

Exposure to Sevan could run as high as 22 per cent if a recently signed letter of intent (LOI) for two semisubmersible rigs worth US$1.05 billion turns effective.

Its conversion into contracts is dependent on Sevan Drilling's initial public offering (IPO) on the OSE. The IPO has met with problems since the bookbuilding stages and has not had good demand on OSE.

Sevan Marine's beleaguered state could therefore have an adverse impact on Cosco's books. For one thing, the LOI signed in March with Sevan Drilling could be deferred or withdrawn.

That would also mean the chance of Sevan Drilling exercising the options for two other rigs would be slim to none.

Cosco also runs the risk of Sevan defaulting or cancelling on Sevan Brasil whose construction is already one-third underway.

Most importantly, the happenings at Sevan Marine put Cosco's future in offshore rigbuilding on shaky ground.

'Sevan Marine accounts for most of Cosco's past offshore contract wins, is an important partner in vying for offshore jobs (Dana Petroleum FPSO job) and a provider of design expertise to Cosco,' Philip Securities analyst Nicholas Low wrote in a note.

While Cosco's counters dropped on the negative news, the decline was not that dramatic. A US$356 million contract announced on Thursday with new customer KS Energy may have mitigated some of the downside. Cosco shares, which on Thursday recouped some lost ground, yesterday ended trading 3 per cent down at $1.94.

On a brighter note, DBS Vickers also pointed out that Cosco's agreements are with Sevan Drilling and not its distressed parent. Moreover, it said Sevan Drilling is trying to terminate 'cross default clauses between Sevan Drilling and Sevan Marine to avoid potential loan withdrawals'.

Indeed, some analysts have expressed confidence the latest LOI with Sevan would turn effective in the remaining part of the first-half year. 'The IPO of Sevan Drilling has raised sufficient funds for the 20 per cent downpayment to Cosco if they are translated to firm orders,' said Phillip Securities' Mr Low.

Cosco had barely begun to rebound after it plunged 7 per cent on Monday when an audit report about accounting irregularities at its Chinese parent was made public. The Singapore-listed company had clarified that it was not cited in the report.



Source/转贴/Extract/:www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:28/05/11

RWS sets target of more than 16m visitors

Business Times - 28 May 2011


RWS sets target of more than 16m visitors

Phase two expansion of integrated resort on track, says Genting chairman

By FELDA CHAY AND TEO SI JIA

RESORTS World Sentosa (RWS) is looking to up its game this year, having set a target for 16 million visitors to head to the integrated resort - an increase from the 15 million last year.

In fact, the resort's owner, Genting Singapore, is confident that it will get even more visitors than that. Speaking at a press briefing on the grand opening of Universal Studios Singapore yesterday, Genting Group chairman and chief executive Lim Kok Thay said: 'This year, I'm convinced that Resorts World Sentosa will be able to attract more than 16 million visitors.' Genting Group is the parent of Genting Singapore.

Universal Studios alone is expected to see four million visitors, said the group. The theme park drew two million visitors in 2010, during which it was open for about nine months following its soft launch in mid-March. Prior to the launch of the 20-ha theme park, RWS had said that it believes it can pull in 4.5 million to five million visitors annually.

The theme park, which opens its doors to the public today, kickstarted celebrations yesterday with appearences by by pop singer and former American Idol judge Paula Abdul, action star Jet Li and actresses Maggie Cheung and Vicki Zhao Wei.

The park will be 'progressively opening' new attractions as it goes along, with a Transformers ride scheduled to be open by the end of this year, said RWS. This will bring the park's number of attractions to 21. The plan is to up the number of attractions to 24 by 2013 - a strategy that Universal Studios hopes will lure return visitors.

Currently 75 per cent of visitors are made up of foreigners. According to Mr Lim, this is a situation unique to Singapore where the local population is not as large as the UK or US.

Universal Studios will also be extending its opening hours, and will close at 9pm instead of 7pm with effect from May 30, said RWS.

In the first quarter of this year, Genting Singapore managed to reverse a $396.3 million loss and make $305.4 million in profit for the period, as gaming tables at RWS benefited from healthy attendances.

Yesterday, Mr Lim also clarified that the second-phase expansion of its gaming resort is 'on track'. This is despite Genting's statement on Thursday that its expansion has encountered some 'unforeseen difficulties' which may delay its completion.

'What we announced probably was something to sort of be a bit on the prudent side because it's sort of a pre-warning so that people won't get disappointed if we do miss our target date, which is to complete most of phase two by the end of the year,' said Mr Lim.

'Some of the elements that are involved in phase two have never been done before. But again let me say that we are right on top of it . . . but sometimes we just cannot avoid unexpected incidents.'

Phase two involves the construction of the world's largest oceanarium. 'So in terms of the frontage, the acrylic frontage of the aquarium, this would be one of the largest pieces of acrylic ever made in one whole and transported halfway round the world. So anything may happen.

'Let's say something happens to that, because it is made in one continuous piece, we may have to start all over again,' said Mr Lim.

Yesterday, Genting also gave a sneak peak into its expansion plans. Mr Lim said that the Genting Group was interested to venture into Taiwan. 'We are following the (gaming) legislative process in Taiwan with great interest and naturally at the right time if Taiwan is ready to open ... an integrated resort in Peng Hu we definitely will be right there,' said Mr Lim. Peng Hu is a cluster of 90 small islands and islets off the western coast of Taiwan.


Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:28/05/11

RWS sets target of more than 16m visitors

Business Times - 28 May 2011


RWS sets target of more than 16m visitors

Phase two expansion of integrated resort on track, says Genting chairman

By FELDA CHAY AND TEO SI JIA

RESORTS World Sentosa (RWS) is looking to up its game this year, having set a target for 16 million visitors to head to the integrated resort - an increase from the 15 million last year.

In fact, the resort's owner, Genting Singapore, is confident that it will get even more visitors than that. Speaking at a press briefing on the grand opening of Universal Studios Singapore yesterday, Genting Group chairman and chief executive Lim Kok Thay said: 'This year, I'm convinced that Resorts World Sentosa will be able to attract more than 16 million visitors.' Genting Group is the parent of Genting Singapore.

Universal Studios alone is expected to see four million visitors, said the group. The theme park drew two million visitors in 2010, during which it was open for about nine months following its soft launch in mid-March. Prior to the launch of the 20-ha theme park, RWS had said that it believes it can pull in 4.5 million to five million visitors annually.

The theme park, which opens its doors to the public today, kickstarted celebrations yesterday with appearences by by pop singer and former American Idol judge Paula Abdul, action star Jet Li and actresses Maggie Cheung and Vicki Zhao Wei.

The park will be 'progressively opening' new attractions as it goes along, with a Transformers ride scheduled to be open by the end of this year, said RWS. This will bring the park's number of attractions to 21. The plan is to up the number of attractions to 24 by 2013 - a strategy that Universal Studios hopes will lure return visitors.

Currently 75 per cent of visitors are made up of foreigners. According to Mr Lim, this is a situation unique to Singapore where the local population is not as large as the UK or US.

Universal Studios will also be extending its opening hours, and will close at 9pm instead of 7pm with effect from May 30, said RWS.

In the first quarter of this year, Genting Singapore managed to reverse a $396.3 million loss and make $305.4 million in profit for the period, as gaming tables at RWS benefited from healthy attendances.

Yesterday, Mr Lim also clarified that the second-phase expansion of its gaming resort is 'on track'. This is despite Genting's statement on Thursday that its expansion has encountered some 'unforeseen difficulties' which may delay its completion.

'What we announced probably was something to sort of be a bit on the prudent side because it's sort of a pre-warning so that people won't get disappointed if we do miss our target date, which is to complete most of phase two by the end of the year,' said Mr Lim.

'Some of the elements that are involved in phase two have never been done before. But again let me say that we are right on top of it . . . but sometimes we just cannot avoid unexpected incidents.'

Phase two involves the construction of the world's largest oceanarium. 'So in terms of the frontage, the acrylic frontage of the aquarium, this would be one of the largest pieces of acrylic ever made in one whole and transported halfway round the world. So anything may happen.

'Let's say something happens to that, because it is made in one continuous piece, we may have to start all over again,' said Mr Lim.

Yesterday, Genting also gave a sneak peak into its expansion plans. Mr Lim said that the Genting Group was interested to venture into Taiwan. 'We are following the (gaming) legislative process in Taiwan with great interest and naturally at the right time if Taiwan is ready to open ... an integrated resort in Peng Hu we definitely will be right there,' said Mr Lim. Peng Hu is a cluster of 90 small islands and islets off the western coast of Taiwan.


Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:28/05/11

Weekend Comment May 27: CitySpring gets an upgrade

CITYSPRING INFRASTRUCTURE TRUST announced better than expected full-year results on May 25. It achieved cash earnings of $16.1 million for the fourth quarter ended March 31 (4Q11) bringing full-year cash earnings to $74.9 million, up 29.5% y-o-y.

For the quarter, CitySpring declared a DPU of 1.05 cents which is in line with guidance for a total FY11 DPU of 4.2 cents, and guided that DPU for FY12 will remain at 4.2 cents.

In a report dated May 26, Kim Eng Research warns that a capital review structure is underway and the results will be announced in September. But the house also says the risk of a DPU reduction has been priced in and the selling pressure that started last November is over so it is upgrading the trust from a sell to a hold with target price unchanged at 54 cents.

Although CitySpring unitholders get a DPU yield of 7.6%, the danger for them is a cash call either through a rights issue or dilution through placement or a combination of the two. Moreover, while CitySpring’s cash earnings rose, it still made a net loss in its P&L account of $16.1 million in FY11 versus $16.8 million in the previous year.

CitySpring says it generated higher cash earnings mainly due to the higher town gas selling prices (tariff increases) and sales volume at City Gas. SingSpring and Basslink also performed within expectations. The most profitable business is City Gas, which made a net profit of $7 million and recorded cash earnings of $52.3 million for FY11, up 85% y-o-y. SingSpring made a net profit of $3.8 million and had cash earnings of $17.4 million, down 6% y-o-y. Basslink recorded a net loss of $40 million (attributed to non-cash items) and had cash earnings of $15 million.

CitySpring and City Gas have obtained commitments from DBS Bank to refinance their respective loans of $142 million and $128 million, with a corresponding extension of maturity from August 2011 to August 2014 and from February 2012 to February 2014. “This suggests an amount close to 70% of the group’s total borrowings will mature in 2014 and 2015. A capital injection is clearly needed to provide long term financial flexibility for the group,” Kim Eng states in its report. CitySpring has unitholder funds of $357 million compared to its net debt of $1.4 billion, and total assets of $2.1 billion. NAV per share is 35.4 cents, and its units last traded at 55 cents, down 5.2% year-to-date.

MARKET OUTLOOK
Although emerging market equity funds saw outflows for the second week of US$1.03 billion ($1.28 billion) in the May 20-26 period, this is down from the outflow of US$1.64 billion of previous week, says Citigroup strategist Markus Rosgen in a report dated May 27. Asia ex-Japan too saw a tiny inflow of US$69 million, he adds. Based on his chart, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Korea and Indonesia saw inflows during the period and Singapore experienced a small outflow.

Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital investors, says “right now shares are a bit oversold and could see a further short term bounce.” However, the long worry list of Greece, European monetary tightening, softening global business conditions indicators, softer US economic data, US housing, US debt ceiling, the aftermath of the Japanese earthquake, whether China will have a hard or soft landing, high oil prices and the two-speed economy in Australia suggests that share markets will remain volatile and are at risk of a further correction over the next few months, he adds.

In Oliver’s view, sweet and sour spots giving rise to hot and cold investment markets suggests that the world’s two major economies are in different points of the investment cycle. The US is in the classic “sweet spot” with strong profit growth but very easy monetary conditions. By contrast, China is in a classic “sour spot” with now slowing economic indicators but ongoing monetary tightening. “This divergence is adding to the volatility in investment markets coming from all the other worries around at present,” he reckons.

Sydney-based Oliver also says Australia is caught between these two extremes, “benefiting” from the easy money that flows out of the US (via strong commodity prices and a strong A$) but subjected to worries about a hard landing in China. The end result is more volatility Down Under.




Source/转贴/Extract/: www.theedgesingapore.com
Publish date:28/05/11

華爾街打紅籌股入冷宮

Created 05/26/2011 - 18:44

華爾街的中國概念股危機進一步升級。因5月在美首次公開售股(IPO)的中國企業,在短時間內紛紛跌破承銷價,使華爾街對中國概念股意興闌珊,許多券商將中國業務部門關閉,轉向其他投資機會。

據《第一財經日報》報導,紐約交易所上市的中國金融軟體業者東南融通公司說,負責審計該公司的會計師事務所德勤已經辭謝審計工作,同時,美國證監會(SEC)已對東南融通展開調查。

因推遲發佈年報,東南融通股票已於17日停牌,停牌前每股報18.93美元。而僅僅幾個月前,該公司股價曾達42.73美元,總市值超過20億美元。該公司2007年10月IPO籌得2億1千萬美元。

同時,據引述巴隆基金分析師趙漪的話報導說,很多華爾街券商關閉了中國業務部門,除因去年底引起調查的多起反向收購財報造假案,投資人開始收割中國網路股也是一個原因。

東南融通呈交SEC的文件附有德勤22日致東南融通的信件,說明德勤發現東南融通財報有造假嫌疑,包括銀行現金與貸款餘額記錄不實,甚至可能涉及銷售收入造假。與此同時,東南融通首席財務員帕拉蘇克(Derek Palaschuk)已請辭,公司董事會已接受辭呈。SEC已展開對東南融通的調查,使先前以反向收購為主要調查對象的SEC進一步擴大調查範圍。

《第一財經日報》報導,一位在紐約某小型券商工作的中國業務分析師說:“中國概念股太冷清了,我現在想其他的投資機會。”


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Source/转贴/Extract/:biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:26/05/11

企業貸款市場復甦‧花旗難重奪龍頭

Created 05/26/2011 - 18:40

《彭博社》報導,企業貸款市場逐漸復甦,花旗集團卻未重拾昔日的霸主地位,原因之一出在蘭德卡登(Richard Landgarten)身上。

這位投資銀行家2009年離開花旗,最後加入巴克萊資本,也帶著Tenet保健公司等客戶一塊跳槽。2009年1月,Tenet曾聘請蘭德卡登及花旗對16億美元的債務交換提供顧問服務,結果該公司去年8月交由巴克萊帶頭進行6億美元的債券發行。

摩根大通雄霸承銷商排行榜

《彭博社》資料顯示,如今雄霸所謂承銷商排行榜的是摩根大通,該公司公佈第一季債券承銷營收9億7千100萬美元,幾乎是排名第四的花旗的兩倍;2008年金融危機前,花旗連續9年位居市場領導地位。

在美國投機級債券方面,花旗的排名也掉到第五名;2007年以前,8年當中的6年花旗一直排名第二。

Jefferies集團駐紐約負責金融業的信用策略師哈切爾(Jonathan Hatcher)說:“他們的確喪失許多關鍵人才,有一些是他們表現最佳的員工。一旦失去這股動能,就很難再找回來。”

儘管花旗正盡力奪回在多數市場中的前4大地位,熟知該銀行策略的消息人士稱,摩根大通及美國銀行已累積了龐大的分行網絡,令花旗首席執行員潘偉迪(Vikram Pandit)打消重奪龍頭寶座的念頭。該名人士要求匿名,因為消息未公開。該名人士稱,管理層已決定,此作法所需的人員編制和資金成本將超過對該行股東權益報酬率帶來的效益。


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Source/转贴/Extract/:biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:28/05/11

IMF或停救希臘‧市場恐慌

Created 05/27/2011 - 19:10

《路透社》報導,歐元集團主席容克26日表示,國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)可能扣住定於下月向希臘發放的一筆援助款。

該消息令市場擔心希臘違約的可能。

不過,歐洲中行執委會成員岡薩雷斯-帕拉莫在同一天表示,希臘應當能夠達到要求,獲得歐盟與IMF的下一批撥款。

容克表示,如果IMF不能發放6月援助款,IMF期望歐盟能夠接手,但這是不可能的事情。

容克的發言人稍後澄清道,如果希臘的新撙節措施能讓歐洲和IMF檢查員信服,6月援助款將不存在問題。

希臘財長本週表示,如果得不到下一筆120億歐元援助款,該國將無力償債並走向違約。

分析師:施壓手段而已

一些分析師認為,容克的談話是向希臘政治領袖們施壓的邊緣政策招數。

希臘政界高層27日會晤,對更嚴苛的撙節舉措、提高國庫收入及私有化達成共識,以使國家的紓困計劃重新走上軌道。

一位IMF在華盛頓的發言人士證實,IMF不會持續撥款給希臘,除非歐盟夥伴國對明年希臘借款所需的資金提供擔保。

發言人士雅金森(Caroline Atkinson)在簡報會上表示:“沒有擔保,絕不會撥款,不會有(資金)缺口。這是我們維持成員國資金安全的辦法。”她並稱,IMF也在尋求對希臘的財政和成長政策的保證。

歐盟官方消息人士對《路透社》表示,由於希臘在財政整固方面未達目標,歐盟的資金不能確保一定提供。

IMF和歐盟對歐元區紓困案的首次公開爭執在23日浮上台面。當時希臘財長帕帕康斯坦季努表示,IMF揚言要擱置其撥款,除非歐盟擔保其可以支應希臘2012年融資需求的缺口。

根據2010年5月出爐的歐盟與IMF紓困計劃,希臘預料應該是在明年重回資本市場,以籌措240億歐元來滿足融資需求。

但隨著危機升溫,且希臘因收入不足而未能達到減赤目標,明年重回資本市場的可能變得渺茫,令歐盟承受將通過第二輪紓困案的壓力。


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Source/转贴/Extract/:biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:28/05/11

咖啡業漲聲響起

Created 05/27/2011 - 19:30

難敵咖啡豆飆漲的成本壓力,星巴克、綠山咖啡和J.M.Smucker等主要咖啡業者,紛紛展開新一波漲價行動。

全球連鎖咖啡龍頭星巴克證實,7月12日起,美國門市袋裝咖啡售價調漲17%、加拿大門市袋裝咖啡調漲6%。

星巴克美國門市的16安士袋裝咖啡,調漲到每袋11.95至14.95美元,是2009年9月以來首見漲價。上回星巴克上調加拿大門市袋裝咖啡價格,則要回溯到2007年10月。

食品大廠J.M.Smucker宣佈,旗下Folgers、Dunkin Donuts和Millstone等咖啡品牌漲價,漲幅11%,為該業者過去一年來第四度調漲咖啡價格,去年5月至今的累計漲幅達34%。

咖啡豆烘焙商綠山咖啡(Green Mountain Coffee Roasters)3日曾宣佈,咖啡產品價格調漲10%。


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Source/转贴/Extract/:biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:28/05/11

淨利跌53%招賣壓‧科恩馬挫38仙

Created 05/28/2011 - 11:40

(吉隆坡27日訊)科恩馬集團(KNM, 7164, 主板工業產品組)首季淨利猛挫52.85%,促使股價如臨大敵,在拋壓蜂擁而至下重挫至2令吉15仙,寫下去年12月13日以來的最低。

財報告急的陰影籠罩,該股節節敗退,一度因賣壓洶湧猛挫46仙到2令吉零7仙,儘管後來隨一些買盤支撐收復部份失地,終場仍無法扭轉頹勢,掛2令吉15仙,全天跌38仙。

該股除為全場第二大跌幅股,更以高達1億零344萬7千100股冠居全場。

科恩馬首季淨利大跌52.85%至1千901萬7千令吉,顯著落後分析員預測,興業研究下調評級至“落後大市”,下修目標價至2令吉28仙。

該行也削減2011至2013財政年淨利預測各41%、37.7%與28.6%,至1億3千560萬、1億9千零20萬與2億2千840萬令吉。

“隨市場過去兩季皆收到負面訊息,股價未來動力料微弱。”

儘管如此,仍有不少分析員維持科恩馬“買進”評級,看好長期展望。馬銀行研究對該股謹慎樂觀,直言儘管訂單能見度走高,賺幅改善依然是隱憂。


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Source/转贴/Extract/:biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:28/05/11

船艦製造業務賺益揚‧沿海工程首季淨利增29.5%

Created 05/28/2011 - 11:51

(吉隆坡27日訊)歸功於船艦製造業務營運賺益走高,沿海工程(COASTAL, 5071, 主板工業產品組)截至2011年3月31日止第一季,淨利增長29.5%至5千609萬2千令吉。

營業額上漲10.4%至1億5千583萬令吉。

沿海工程發文告指出,因中東和北非動亂,以及全球經濟條件改善,帶動現有油價上漲30美元至每桶100美元關口,在高油價環境下,岸外支援船艦需求料隨石油公司勘探、開發和生產工程進行,以及轉向深水油田生產領域而增加。

“我們手握1億3千900萬令吉現金,而截至2011年3月杪負債率僅7.5%,穩健的財務狀況將允許公司開拓岸外結構製造領域的潛在商業機會。公司預期在船艦銷售定案營業額前景清晰下,2011財政年表現將令人滿意。”


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Source/转贴/Extract/:biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:28/05/11

名胜世界第二阶段工程如期进行

名胜世界第二阶段工程如期进行
海事博物馆、水族馆等从第三季起陆续推出


圣淘沙名胜世界西侧第二阶段工程按计划进行,其中多个项目包括海事博物馆、新的度假酒店、水族馆及海洋生物园等都将从今年第三季度至明年中旬陆续推出。

  为配合于今早所举行的新加坡环球影城正式开幕仪式,圣淘沙名胜世界总裁陈启德在昨早所举行的记者会上透露了以上消息。

  他说:“圣淘沙名胜世界的第二阶段工程正按计划进行,即将在今年第三季度打头炮开幕的是海事博物馆、随后在第四季度开幕的则是其中一家度假酒店。而直至明年年中,也将陆续推出水族馆及海洋生物园,以确保每个季度都有新的景点。”

  与此同时,圣淘沙名胜世界内的第五个度假酒店,即Equarius酒店已在昨早举行了盖顶仪式,相信这家酒店将会很快展开室内装潢工程,并预计能在明年正式开幕。

  圣淘沙名胜世界管理层较早前曾表示这个综合度假胜地第二阶段的工程会“为加强设计而延误”。对此,圣淘沙名胜世界主席林国泰受询时澄清,这样的说法纯属谨慎,以免让一些人感到失望。

  林国泰也特地指出,在第二阶段工程中一个得格外留神的项目是,新景点水族馆内的全世界最大“开放式海底水缸”的巨大有机玻璃。这个水缸宽33米,高11米,会让人感觉犹如身处海底。此外,在维持水缸内这么多海底生物的存活这方面也须特别小心。

今年游客预计

达到1600万

  圣淘沙名胜世界在2010年的游客人次达1500万,而今年,预计游客人次将能“更上一层楼”达到1600万,并预计环球影城今年会迎来400万游客人次,这个数目将比去年试营九个月期间所接待的200万人次再多出一倍。

环球影城的游客中,有四分之三来自外国,而他们之中更有九成外国游客来自东南亚、中国与印度等地。
  被询及是否打算如滨海湾金沙二月时所表示的,准备向新加坡政府寻求更多土地来扩充酒店与会展面积,林国泰表示,有更多的土地当然会更好,但新加坡是个寸土如金的国度,像这样的主题公园若有更多的游乐项目,就须要更大的公园,更多的土地。”

  “所以从这方面来看,若我们觉得能够为本地的旅游业更尽一份力,我们当然会与政府进行商谈,但目前从综合度假胜地总体角度来看,我们还未全部竣工,所以这不是我们现在的焦点。”

  也有媒体在记者会上指出与亚洲其他主题公园相比,环球影城应该是最小之一,对此,环球主题乐园及度假区主席兼首席行政官威廉斯(Tom Williams)认为,大小并不重要,重要的是游乐设施、表演及景点的质量。

  目前,环球影城里已有20个热门游乐与演出项目开放给公众,而在今年底前也将迎来世界上首个以好莱坞卖座电影《变形金刚》为主题的过山车。

  陈启德还透露环球影城将会在未来两年再多推出三个新景点,其中两个是为新加坡首创的。

  此外,他也宣布从下个星期一开始,环球影城的营业时间也将从目前的上午10时至傍晚6时,延长至晚上9时,让游客能有更充裕的时间尽情玩乐,尽兴而归。

  环球影城总共聘请3450名员工,占整个综合度假胜地的1万3200名员工的三分之一。其中72%的员工为本地公民与永久居民,其余的则为外国人。

云顶拟在台湾澎湖

建综合度假胜地
云顶集团有意在台湾澎湖开设另一个综合度假胜地。
  也同是云顶集团执行主席兼总执行长主席的林国泰被台湾媒体询及,澎湖目前正在讨论通过博弈法案,而若最终通过,是否有兴趣在那里投资发展综合度假胜地时表示,云顶集团正在留意台湾澎湖博弈法案的进展,若台湾当局准备在澎湖开始招标设立综合度假胜地,集团希望能将高水准的娱乐享受带到台湾。

  在环球影城去年九个月的试营期间,总共接待了超过11万5000名来自世界各地的考察代表,林国泰相信他们之中有些也希望能利用类似的综合度假胜地来重整旅游业。


Source/转贴/Extract/:《联合早报》
Publish date:28/05/11

Malaysia's Genting close to $661 mln purchase of Tanjong unit-report

On Saturday 28 May 2011, 10:34

KUALA LUMPUR, May 28 (Reuters) - A consortium of investors led by Malaysia's Genting is close to completing the 2 billion ringgit ($660.6 million)purchase of Pan Malaysian Pools, the gaming arm of recently delisted Tanjong Plc, the Edge newspaper reported on Saturday.

The Edge, citing a source, said the consortium would invest an initial 500 million ringgit, while the rest will be financed.

The 2 billion ringgit price tag values Pan Malaysian Pools at 11 times EBITDA, which stood at 180 million ringgit as of Jan 31, 2010, the Edge added.

The sale of the numbers operator has attracted a lot of interest in the months leading up with a number of players having expressed interest in purchasing the asset. [ID:nSGE68C004] [ID:nL3E6ND08I]

Tanjong was privatised by its majority shareholder, tycoon T. Ananda Krishnan, last year in a $1.5 billion exercise.

Analysts have said he intends to break up the conglomerate and relist its component parts.

The reclusive tycoon undertook a similar exercise in 2007 when he privatised Maxis , Malaysia's largest mobile operator, before subsequently relisting the business in 2009 after stripping out Maxis' international operations.

Krishnan also privatised satellite television operator Astro All-Asia Network at about the same time as the Tanjong privatisation. ($1 = 3.028 Malaysian Ringgit)


Source/转贴/Extract/: yahoo.com
Publish date:28/05/11

Bob Doll: End of QE2 should be a non-event for investors

STOCK MARKETS WERE flat-to-down in the week ended May 13 as economic data continued to be mixed. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3% to 12,596 and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 0.2% to 1,338. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite was up fractionally to 2,828. In other markets, commodity prices continued to fall and the US dollar moved higher. While BlackRock does not believe that the long-term secular uptrend in commodity prices has ended, we do think that the cooling effect could be in place for some time, which, it is hoped, will be a positive for both economic growth and stocks.

Data suggests that the global economy has slowed recently, but BlackRock believes it is still in the midst of a transition from recovery to self-sustaining expansion. Although several forward-looking indicators have worsened, this should not be a surprise since periodic setbacks are part of any economic recovery. In addition, we would argue that at least some of the recent weakness in growth levels can be attributed to temporary factors (including bad weather).

On balance, however, the economic positives outweigh the negatives. As last month’s US employment report showed, the labour market in the US is certainly healing and we have also started to see an uptick in household debt levels for the first time in quite a while, which (along with an easing in lending standards) helps support BlackRock’s view that the US economy is shifting into a self-sustaining mode. The reduction in energy prices that has occurred in recent weeks should also ease some of the concerns over inflation, which, in turn, should reduce the odds that we will see further tightening among the world’s central banks.

Weaker growth levels appear to have brought about some selling pressure in risk assets, as investors seem to be preparing for tighter monetary policies and the end of the US Federal Reserve’s QE2 bond-purchase programme. The impact of the impending end of the QE2 programme is among the most talkedabout topics among investors

Despite the widespread concern that the end of the Fed’s programme could derail the recovery and send markets into a significant correction, BlackRock thinks the impact will be minimal. There are significant differences between conditions today and when the Fed ended its first round of quantitative easing in the summer of 2010. Lending standards have eased noticeably since that time, and business and consumer loan markets have been growing. Also, in contrast to the time when QE came to an end and money growth was flat to negative, it is accelerating at present. This backdrop, combined with a general environment of better and more self-sustaining economic growth, suggests to us that the end of QE2 should essentially be a non-event.

An additional issue that has some investors worried is the ongoing debate over the US federal deficit and what will happen with the debt ceiling. There is a great deal of political theatre associated with these debates in Washington, which help highlight the uncertainty and potential risks, but we think there is little to no chance that the US would default on its debt. The actual resolution over the debt ceiling issue is likely to be messy but should result in some sort of compromise in which Democrats are forced to cut more spending than they want to and in which Republicans will have to make some concessions as well. The arguments over deficits and spending levels will certainly not end with the debt ceiling debate and investors should expect these issues to dominate the political conversation in the run-up to the 2012 elections.

Equity markets have held up pretty well in recent weeks in the face of some weaker economic data and we do not believe there is significant downside risk in the markets. Valuations remain attractive, with stocks trading at price-to-earnings ratios of around 14 times, compared with 2011 earnings estimates, and less than 13 times, compared with 2012 estimates. With corporate earnings continuing to grow, BlackRock believes these ratios help make stocks an attractive long-term investment when compared with bonds or cash. We would caution, however, that, given the current economic rough patch, stocks are likely to endure some additional sideways action for now



Source/转贴/Extract/: www.theedgesingapore.com
Publish date:24/05/11

Assif Shameen: Is slow steaming helping shippers?

NECESSITY IS OFTEN the mother of invention. Take shipping, where higher oil prices, slower global growth and a looming glut of container ships had cut freight rates, eroded margins and forced operators to slash costs. Little wonder then that over the past couple of years, the industry has come up with a unique win-win solution: slow steaming.
By cutting average speed from about 25 knots to 17 knots, shipping firms are able to save substantially on bunker fuel costs and increase their fleet utilisation, because the longer it takes to complete a ship’s journey, the more vessels would need to be deployed, thus solving the vexing issue of overcapacity. Moreover, an unintended environmental bonus from slow steaming was a drastic cut in emissions, thereby reducing carbon footprint for shippers. Leading container shipping firm Maersk recently attributed slower vessel speeds to a 7% reduction in carbon emissions over the past 18 months.

Time to be bullish on the global shipping sector and buy shipping stocks now that fuel prices have fallen from their recent highs and margins are set to improve? Not so fast. For starters, slow steaming isn’t without its detractors. While it may indeed cut fuel costs, slow steaming has also hit supply chains hard in recent months, just as the manufacturing world was reeling from disruptions in the aftermath of the earthquake and tsunami in northeastern Japan. Though it may save shipping firms some fuel, slow steaming has also made journeys longer, which means key parts now arrive at plants several days late at a time when component inventories are already low in a world where just-intime manufacturing is the rule rather than the exception.

Moreover, there is more to it than meets the eye. Initially, slow steaming tends to accelerate the depletion of inventory, making it harder for shippers to fill retailers’ store shelves or manufacturers’ production lines in time. That’s because components arrive late at plants and finished goods arrive late at stores such as Wal-Mart. Over time, adjustments to lengthier voyages actually involve increasing the inventory that stores or factories need to carry, resulting in higher overall costs for factories and retailers. Clearly, that’s a losing proposition at a time when consumer sentiment in many of the troubled developed economies is still weak.

Moreover, customers want a clear choice between loading their cargo on a slow-steaming boat and one plying at normal speed. While shipping firms have been eager to tout the benefits, they have so far tried to keep a tight lid on the real longterm costs of slow steaming. Another common complaint is that shipping firms that in the past have been all too eager to pass on higher fuel costs to their clients haven’t been quick enough to pass any savings accrued from slow steaming.

To be sure, there are plenty of unintended consequences of slow steaming. With more ships out there because of slower deliveries and inventory disruptions, there are logjams at container terminals around the world. Moreover, slow steaming has only exacerbated the recent shortage of steel containers. Slower sailing equals more sailing and thus more boxes are needed at a time when intra- regional trade in Asia has been growing, resulting in a severe shortage of steel containers. This, in turn, hurts shippers and adds to the costs of goods in the stores.

Then, there is the impact on the looming oversupply. Credit Suisse in a recent report debunked the myth of oversupply in the container shipping industry. Transpacific and Asia/Europe routes are booming, thanks to a gradual recovery in global trade, the report says. Emerging markets in Asia, Latin America and Africa are driving growth in global trade and that’s helping shipping all around. The bank expects the demand in global container trade to grow more than 8% over the next year. Even US containerised exports to Northeast Asia are likely to grow by 12.9% this year, and 7.2% in 2012.

Vessel supply isn’t keeping pace with the demand. Growth in new container shipping capacity in the first four months of the year was a mere 7.6%, or “not outrageous”, as 37% of new ships did not get delivered on schedule in 1Q2011, Credit Suisse notes in its report. Vessel load factors on transpacific and Asia/Europe routes have crawled back to 90% to 95% in recent months, while the idle fleet is now at around the pre-crisis level. All that does not suggest the presence of significant excess capacity in the system, the report says.

While additional capacity and slower global growth are likely to weigh on freight rates over the next few months, an eventual rebound in global economies isn’t likely to see an end to slow steaming. Indeed, even though industry insiders disagree on its effectiveness as a tool to save costs, they now grudgingly concede that slow steaming, for all its controversies, is here to stay because of its environmental benefits such as a steep decrease in carbon emissions. A 10% reduction in speed can help slash emissions by more than 19%. Slow steaming, which was supposed to be a Band-Aid to counter rising fuel cost, has become the bitter pill for long-term issues such as carbon emissions.



Source/转贴/Extract/: www.theedgesingapore.com
Publish date:24/05/11

After the Greek default

The Star Online > Business
Saturday May 28, 2011

After the Greek default

THE MAGIC OF THE MARKET
By MARTIN FELDSTEIN

THE Greek government, the European Commission, and the International Monetary Fund are all denying what markets perceive clearly: Greece will eventually default on its debts to its private and public creditors. The politicians prefer to postpone the inevitable by putting public money where private money will no longer go, because doing so allows creditors to maintain the fiction that the accounting value of the Greek bonds that they hold need not be reduced. That, in turn, avoids triggering requirements of more bank capital.

But, even though the additional loans that Greece will soon receive from the European Union and the IMF carry low interest rates, the level of Greek debt will rise rapidly to unsustainable levels. That's why market interest rates on privately held Greek bonds and prices for credit-default swaps indicate that a massive default is coming.

And a massive default, together with a very large sustained cut in the annual budget deficit, is, in fact, needed to restore Greek fiscal sustainability. More specifically, even if a default brings the country's debt down to 60% of GDP, Greece would still have to reduce its annual budget deficit from the current 10% of GDP to about 3% if it is to prevent the debt ratio from rising again. In that case, Greece should be able to finance its future annual government deficits from domestic sources alone.

But fiscal sustainability is no cure for Greece's chronically large trade deficit. Greece's imports now exceed its exports by more than 4% of its GDP, the largest trade deficit among eurozone member countries. If that trade gap persists, Greece will have to borrow the full amount from foreign lenders every year in the future, even if the post-default budget deficits could be financed by borrowing at home.

Eliminating or reducing this trade gap without depressing economic activity and employment in Greece requires that the country export more and import less. That, in turn, requires making Greek goods and services more competitive relative to those of the country's trading partners. A country with a flexible currency can achieve that by allowing the exchange rate to depreciate. But Greece's membership in the eurozone makes that impossible.

So Greece faces the difficult task of lowering the prices of its goods and services relative to those in other countries by other means, namely a large cut in the wages and salaries of Greek private-sector employees.

But, even if that could be achieved, it would close the trade gap only for as long as Greek prices remained competitive. To maintain price competitiveness, the gap between Greek wage growth and the rise in Greek productivity i.e., output per employee hour must not be greater than the gap in other eurozone countries.v

That will not be easy. Greece's trade deficit developed over the past decade because Greek prices have been rising faster than those of its trading partners. And that has happened precisely because wages have been rising faster in Greece, relative to productivity growth, than in other eurozone countries.

To see why it will be difficult for Greece to remain competitive, assume that the rest of the eurozone experiences annual productivity gains of 2%, while monetary policy limits annual price inflation to 2%. In that case, wages in the rest of the eurozone can rise by 4% a year. But if productivity in Greece rises at just 1%, Greek wages can increase at only 3%. Any higher rate would cause Greek prices to rise more rapidly than those of its eurozone trading partners.

So Greece faces a triple challenge: the fiscal challenge of cutting its government debt and future deficits; the price-level challenge of reducing its prices enough to wipe out the current trade gap; and the wage-productivity challenge of keeping future wage growth below the eurozone average or raising its productivity growth rate.

Ever since the Greek crisis began, the country has shown that it cannot solve its problems as the IMF and the European Commission had hoped. The countries that faced similar problems in other parts of the world always combined fiscal contractions with currency devaluations, which membership in a monetary union rules out.

A temporary leave of absence from the eurozone would allow Greece to achieve a price-level decline relative to other eurozone countries, and would make it easier to adjust the relative price level if Greek wages cannot be limited. The Maastricht treaty explicitly prohibits a eurozone country from leaving the euro, but says nothing about a temporary leave of absence (and therefore doesn't prohibit one). It is time for Greece, other eurozone members, and the European Commission to start thinking seriously about that option. - Project


Martin Feldstein, Professor of Economics at Harvard, was chairman of President Ronald Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers and is former president of the National Bureau for Economic Research.

Source/转贴/Extract/: The Star Online
Publish date:28/05/11

Get to know the auditors

The Star Online > Business
Saturday May 28, 2011

Get to know the auditors

OPTIMISTICALLY CAUTIOUS
By ERROL OH

There's a price to pay for taking audit quality for granted.

A LOT is being said about the audit profession these days. After all, why should the auditors be out of the line of sight in the frenzy of finger-pointing in the wake of the global financial crisis?

It's easy to assign blame on hindsight, but nevertheless, when large and seemingly invulnerable businesses have collapsed or have come close to oblivion as a result of large-scale mismanagement and fraud, it's safe to conclude that a lot of regulators and professionals have surely dropped the ball.

They have missed the warning signs and have failed to raise the alarm. There's no doubt that the auditors belong in this group.

In a consultation paper released last October, the European Commission (EC) observes: “While the role played (in the financial crisis) by banks, hedge funds, rating agencies, supervisors or central banks has been questioned and analysed in depth in many instances, limited attention has been given so far to how the audit function could be enhanced in order to contribute to increased financial stability.”

This so-called Green Paper, titled Audit Policy: Lessons from the Crisis, solicited responses to questions that were designed to help the EC figure out how to improve the European audit market. However, many of the issues raised are applicable in most other parts of the world.

Then, in January this year, the New York-based International Auditing and Assurance Standards Board (IAASB) came out with a thought piece called Audit Quality: An IAASB Perspective. This publication too sees a connection between the financial crisis and the auditors.

“The turbulent events of the global financial crisis have highlighted the critical importance of credible, high-quality financial reporting. They have also demonstrated the importance of considering the role of audit quality in the broader context of quality financial reporting.

Achieving quality financial reporting depends on the integrity of each of the links in the financial reporting supply chain,” wrote IAASB chairman Professor Arnold Schilder.

“As one of those links, the external audit plays a major role in supporting the quality of financial reporting around the world, whether in the context of the capital markets, the public sector or the private or non-public sector. It is an important part of the regulatory and supervisory infrastructure, and thus an activity of significant public interest.”

Naturally, the enforcement agencies sometimes have a more severe view on how the auditors have contributed to the crisis. Last December, the New York attorney general sued Ernst & Young, the longtime auditors of Lehman Brothers, whose application for bankruptcy protection in September 2008 is considered one of the triggers of the crisis. The lawsuit alleged that the Ernst & Young helped Lehman Brothers engage in a “massive accounting fraud”.

Another Big Four firm, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), also had to endure the harsh glare of publicity recently in the aftermath of a large corporation's downfall. In this case, the company is India's Satyam Computer Services, whose chairman confessed that the IT service provider's accounts had been falsified.

Last month, the United States' Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) announced a settled disciplinary order against five PricewaterhouseCoopers International firms based in India. Two of those firms were slapped with a US$1.5mil penalty.

This is in addition to a US$6mil penalty imposed by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) against the five firms. The combined $7.5mil penalty imposed in this matter is the largest that the SEC and PCAOB have assessed against any registered foreign accounting firm.

On May 16, the IAASB issued a consultation paper titled Enhancing the Value of Auditor Reporting: Exploring Options for Change. “The purpose of this international consultation is to determine whether there are common views among key users of audited financial statements and other parties to the financial reporting process about the usefulness of auditor reporting, and to explore possible options to enhance the quality, relevance and value of auditor reporting,” the board explains.

Clearly, now is as good a time as any to have discussions on the importance of the work of auditors. The question is, are Malaysian investors participating in this dialogue? Going by how shareholders are generally passive about the appointment of auditors of listed companies, the answer can only be no.

For that matter, when was the last time we hear minority shareholders openly and vigorously questioning the management and board's choice of auditors? It's standard for an AGM agenda to include the re-appointment of the auditors and the authorisation of the directors to fix the auditors' remuneration. Year in and year out, the shareholders at the AGM will dutifully pass such resolutions on the assumption that the directors and the auditors are doing what they're supposed to be doing when it comes to ensuring audit quality.

The average minority shareholder of a listed company probably doesn't even know which firm audits the company. There's this dangerous perception that all auditors are more or less the same, and that it's not up to the investors to demand for audit quality.

There are several questions that shareholders (and investors, in general) should be asking about the auditors and their selection by the management.

How were the auditors picked, and how did the board satisfy itself that it had found the best firm for the job? Who is the partner of the firm who will oversee the audit and how is he qualified to handle that role? Do the audit fees reflect the extent of work required? Bear in mind that in audit, a bargain is not always a good thing. If the same firm has been the auditors for a long time, is there a need to consider a change? How do the auditors ensure independence?

Yes, these are rather dull and procedural areas, but isn't it better to tackle these questions now than after the breakdown of a company?


Executive editor Errol Oh has said this before and he'll say it again many people don't understand what is it that auditors really do.

Source/转贴/Extract/: The Star Online
Publish date:28/05/11

Resorts World Sentosa 'on track' for its phase two opening

by Hoe Yeen Nie
04:47 AM May 28, 2011
SINGAPORE - Less than a day after its parent company, the Genting Group, said in a filing to the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange that the completion of its second phase could be delayed, Resorts World Sentosa (RWS) chairman Lim Kok Thay yesterday played down the possibility.

Speaking at a press conference, Mr Lim said that the resort was "on track" for its phase two opening later this year and that he was confident that it will attract more than 16 million visitors this year, up from last year's 15 million.

On Thursday, Genting had said in the stock exchange filing that the RWS is "encountering some unforeseen difficulties" which may delay the completion of the second phase.

Mr Lim said the announcement was made out of prudence and he described it as "a bit of over-carefulness on the management's part".

He added: "It was sort of a pre-warning so that people won't get disappointed if we do miss our target date which is to try and complete most of phase two by the end of 2011."

The integrated resort will roll out its attractions under phase two from the third quarter, starting with its maritime museum. Its Marine Life Park will open by the middle of next year.

It announced that it had completed the structure of its fifth hotel, Equarius, one of two new hotels under phase two yesterday.

Mr Lim said he was open to acquiring more land for expansion but he noted that the focus was to complete the rest of the resort.

The RWS houses the Universal Studios Singapore theme park - which will hold its grand opening today - among other attractions.

Weighing in on the issue, Universal Parks and Resorts chairman Tom Williams reiterated that "size is really irrelevant".

Said Mr Williams: "It is all about the quality of the experience, the exciting nature of the rides and shows and attractions."

The theme park of about 20 hectares has 21 rides and shows, with three more attractions in the pipeline which were be completed by 2013.

In the nine months after its soft opening in March last year, the theme park attracted about two million visitors. It is projecting four million visitors for the whole of this year.

Source/转贴/Extract/: TODAYonline
Publish date:28/05/11

Recession coming? Yield curve says no way

by Caroline Baum
11:05 PM May 27, 2011
Green shoots are proliferating in gardens across America but for some forecasters it already looks like the end of summer. A few are even hinting at recession by year-end. That is highly unlikely.

While black swans have gained a new cachet following the prices-can't-fall-nationwide housing bust and the financial meltdown it triggered, the most important leading indicator, the yield curve, is saying there will be no recession anytime soon.

With the Federal Reserve's benchmark rate at zero to 0.25 per cent and the 10-year Treasury note yielding 3.06 per cent, the spread between the two interest rates is among the widest in history. It is the reverse configuration, an inverted yield curve with short rates above long rates, that augurs recession.

The spread - or the "term structure of interest rates", as it is known in academic circles - is not some mystical talisman with omniscient powers. It derives its prognosticating ability from the simple fact that one rate is artificially pegged by the central bank while the other is determined by the market. Their relationship encapsulates the stance of monetary policy.

When the yield curve is steep, as it is now, it is an inducement for banks to expand their balance sheets - borrow short, lend long - and increase the money supply. That bank credit is not growing now owes more to the hangover from a period of excess leverage and new-found religion on lending standards than any restrictive policy on the part of the Fed.

In a similar situation in the early '90s, following another real-estate-driven banking crisis, it took years for financial institutions to start lending again. The time to worry about recession is when the Fed raises the funds rate to the point where the yield curve inverts. Within a year or two, it is curtains for the economy.

The yield curve is one of 10 components of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators. It was not added to the LEI in 1996 on a random role of the dice. It is in there because it has proved to be a reliable predictor of the economy. Not only that. Historically the yield curve has been the first of the leading indicators to signal a turn in the business cycle, according to economists at the Conference Board, the keeper of the LEI.

The typical lead time is 15 to 16 months at the business cycle peak and nine months at the trough, according to Ataman Ozyildirim, associate director of the United States and global indicators program at the Conference Board. With the spread currently about 300 basis points and the Fed in no hurry to raise short-term rates, recession is not in the cards.

In the most recent business cycle, the fed funds rate first rose above the 10-year Treasury yield in June 2006. The recession started in December 2007, which gave doubters 18 months to protest that "this time is different" before an inverted yield curve proved them wrong again.

"This time" the reason - and there is always some explanation why the spread means something different this time - was the "global savings glut", which was directed to US Treasuries and depressed long-term rates.

This time was not different. And it has never been different for the past seven recessions, starting with the one in 1969-1970. Yet every time the curve inverts, especially if the economy appears to be cruising along, economists refuse to believe the message, arguing, for example, that changes in the structure of the economy might change the relationship between the yield curve and economic activity.

Have I not seen the proliferation of weak economic indicators in the past few weeks? What about the debt crisis roiling Europe and central banks in emerging-market countries that are raising interest rates to curtail inflation? How about all the foreclosed homes that banks will eventually dump on an already depressed market? Commodities have rolled over, stock markets are shaky and the yield curve is nothing more than two points connected by a line.

Yes, I have seen or read all of the above. And I will still take the two points connected by a line over all the coincident readings on the economy's health.

The Fed's benchmark rate is at zero, providing a powerful incentive to arbitrage the yield curve, reach for higher returns and party until the central bank threatens to take the punch bowl away. A US$15 trillion (S$18.6 trillion) economy does not turn on a dime. Listening to the commentary, you would think that one day inflation is ready to take off and the next the economy is struggling to stay afloat.

In the real world, things do not change that quickly. The past seven expansions lasted 71 months, on average. The current one is not quite two years old. And by some metrics, it has yet to get going. So if you think the US economy is headed into recession in a matter of months, then I have some Greek debt to sell you. BLOOMBERG



Caroline Baum, author of "Just What I Said", is a Bloomberg View columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.


Source/转贴/Extract/: TODAYonline
Publish date:28/05/11

Orchard retail space oversupply?

by Ryan Huang Wenwu
04:47 AM May 28, 2011
SINGAPORE - A number of shopping malls opened in Orchard Road in the last two years, increasing the prime shopping belt's retail space by about 30 per cent, but not everyone at these new spaces has been doing well.

Only last week, tenants at 313 Somerset reportedly petitioned for lower rentals, complaining of poor business, raising questions over whether there is an oversupply of retail space in the area.

Mr Colin Tan, head of research and consultancy at Suntec Chesterton International, said: "If you go down to Orchard Road and visit some of these places, you'll see that there is a high turnover of tenants. Tenants, which may have signed three years ago, are now finding it very hard to cope, so you see a lot of empty shops or hoardings or signs."

There were signs of sluggish demand creeping in during the first quarter this year. Vacancy rates for Orchard Road retail space inched up to 6 per cent from 5 per cent from the fourth quarter last year.

Mr Nicholas Mak, head of research and consultancy at SLP International, said: "In the last two quarters, demand has not been as fast. As a result, some of the malls may have to adjust their rentals to attract new tenants or retain some of the existing ones."

Others say the situation may not be so straightforward.

Senior manager for research at Cushman & Wakefield Ong Kah Seng said: "There has been a long dearth of major malls in Orchard Road - for more than a decade. The new malls actually refresh the identity of Orchard Road but require some time to be adjusted by market participants as they arrived as a surge after a hiatus."

Source/转贴/Extract/: TODAYonline
Publish date:28/05/11

Analysts trim KNM forecast but upbeat on prospects

By Sharen Kaur
sharen@nstp.com.my
2011/05/28


KUALA LUMPUR: Analysts have trimmed their net profit forecast for oil and gas process equipment maker KNM Group Bhd, although they are upbeat on its prospects.

They are concerned about KNM's legacy contracts that are eating into its margins.

KNM has substantial amount of contracts from early 2010, which it has yet to account for. This led analysts to believe that another quarter of sluggish earnings is likely.

"We can't foresee how much longer these contracts would exist and we lack visibility as to when the 2010 cost overruns will end," said an analyst with RHB Research Institute.

The share price of KNM, which is 11.76 per cent owned by the Employees Provident Fund, yesterday fell the most in three weeks after the company reported a drop in first quarter earnings. The stock fell 15 per cent yesterday to close at RM2.15, with 1.03 billion shares traded.

For the quarter ended March 31 2011, KNM's year-on-year net profit fell by half to RM19.02 million. The earnings include tax incentives of RM12.8 million.

RHB Research has cut KNM's core net profit estimates to RM135 million for fiscal 2011 from RM230 million.

It has downgraded the stock to "underperform" from "outperform" and cut the price target to RM2.28 from RM3.45.

An analyst at TA Securities said KNM may do better in the second half of the year, led by its RM2.2 billion UK project.

Last December, KNM won a contract for biomass and waste recycling and has started preliminary engineering works.

TA Securities has a "buy" call on the stock with a target price of RM4.27 as it thinks the UK project will propel its margin game as it is on a cost plus basis.

The research house is also bullish because of KNM's strong order book of RM5.4 billion.

"KNM needs to address its cost overrun issues and operating margin, which has fallen by 1.2 per cent. This is the worrying factor," the analyst said.

A foreign broker, however, does not think the UK project would contribute as much to its earnings as it would be offset by losses from older projects.

"KNM should recognise 15 per cent or RM300 million of the project value this year but it is not enough to boost earnings as a lot of their older projects are eating into their margins," he told Business Times.

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.btimes.com.my
Publish date:28/05/11

Springing to life in June

2011/05/28


The bulls most certainly have lost their mojo in May, but they will be inching for some payback time come next month.
May has been a lacklustre month. Many will be happy to see the back of this month, except for those who short stocks.

Malaysia allows investors to short some stocks, but the short market here is so thinly-traded. Often people don't bother to check if the stocks they are contemplating buying have been shorted.

"Shorts" make money when the price of the stock they are shorting goes down.

They could be making a killing this month, as statistics show equities often do not perform well in May.

Why is that so? I really don't know. It could be due to the same reason why the world is round, or that the Beatles are from Liverpool, I guess.

Coming back to serious business, statistics show that since the start of the 21 century, the benchmark FBM KLCI has been closing 60 per cent of the time lower in May from its end-April close.

In June, however, investors will spring to life, take a little bit more risks, which eventually helps drive prices upwards.

In this century alone, the FBM KLCI chart point shows there is a 72.77 per cent chance of the index trending higher in June, compared to May's closing value.

So, how bad has May been? Well, let's just put it this way.

Jerneh Asia Bhd, which is not a shelf company nor assetless, said it might pay anywhere between RM1.87 and RM2.52 a share dividend by as early as August. On top of that, the company is also proposing a capital repayment of between RM1.36 to RM1.41 a share.

If we were to take the low side of the dividend and capital repayment, Jerneh will be returning a minimum of RM3.23, while on the top end, the maximum will be RM3.93 a share.

With such an attractive proposal, one would have expected a boisterous reaction. Instead, the share price went up by 3 sen to RM3.22 on the trading day after the announcement was made. Hardly inspiring.

When the bear rules the roost, investors try to be more sensible, but come June, when markets are a bit more robust, the ground is fertile for optimism to overcome sensibilities.

Hence, even the wierdest, remotest piece of news within the market place could end up being a cash boon for the odd speculator.

So, brace yourself for a slew of research reports, new targets, fresh buys and impending earnings momentum to capture the limelight next month from some of the same analysts who missed all the major stockmarket meltdowns by a mile in recent times.

June could be a very active month and fruitful to the daily trader, provided of course, irritating mosquitoes like external factors don't spoil the party.

Hope for the best. Hope for the Dow Jones not to bite the dust. Hope for oil prices to find some common sense but most of all, hope that the average Malaysian purse string isn't put to the test.

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.btimes.com.my
Publish date:28/05/11

淨利急挫引賣壓 科恩馬大熱大跌

吉隆坡27日訊)隨著科恩馬集團(KNM,7164,主板工業股)交出大幅低於市場預期的2011財政年首季業績後,該股今日面對沉重的賣壓,而大熱走低,並寫下自去年12月8日以來的近6個月盤中新低。


儘管如此,市場人士仍相信,該集團約54億令吉的工程訂單,將能持續為該集團業績帶來顯著的貢獻。

在淨利大幅下滑的不利因素籠罩下,該股早盤以2.44令吉開低後,雖曾稍微回彈至全日最高的2.45令吉,但卻被沉重的賣盤動力所壓制,全天皆處在下跌的走勢。

該股在午盤更一度下滑至全日最低的2.07令吉,最終稍微收窄跌幅,以2.15令吉掛收,全日急跌38仙或15.02%,成為全場第2大下跌股。

最大單日跌幅

同時,該股共有1億零344萬7100股易手,為上市以來,成交量第二多的交易日,進而穩站十大熱門股榜首。

這無疑是該集團自去年12月6日完成股票整合之後,創下最大跌幅的交易日。

科恩馬集團首季淨利按年下滑52.5%,至1900萬令吉,為市場全年淨利預測的8.2%。淨利下滑的主因為較高的有效稅率,以及工程低盈利貢獻偏低。

然而,MIDF研究分析員相信,該集團目前約54億令吉的工程訂單,將足以為該集團帶來2年半的業績貢獻。

同時,科恩馬集團剛獲取Lukoil烏茲別克7160萬美元,或2億1780萬令吉的合約。

這項合約是為烏茲別克的克豪扎克發展檔案與設備供應設施,為期24個月。而科恩馬集團也在2010年12月獲得該公司價值6億8000萬令吉的合約。

年初至今,科恩馬集團獲得的新合約價值約9億1100萬令吉。分析員相信,該集團有強勁的動力取得新合約,顯示著該集團在復甦的同時,亦可從探勘與生產領域的成長趨勢中獲利。

分析員指出,該集團2011財政年首季營業額成長按年達10%,而其未計算利息和稅項之盈利(EBIT)則按年增長48.5%。同時,科恩馬管理層預計其2011財政年的毛賺幅達21%。

分析員表示,該集團約57%的高端產品能帶來較好的賺幅,因而預計其毛賺幅將達19.6%。

有鑑於此,國內主要投行仍給予該股「買進」與「超越大市」的投資評級。而MIDF研究亦維持該股3.20令吉的目標價格。


Source/转贴/Extract/: Oriental Daily
Publish date:28/05/11

Friday, May 27, 2011

股價跌不停 馬航市值僅13億

(吉隆坡27日訊)馬航(MAS,3786,主要板貿易)股價“倒退”至10多年前的水平,代表國家的航空公司,市值僅13億令吉!

 馬航再陷虧損,今日遭日本野村控股(Nomura Holdings)“降級”,從“買進”下修至“減持”,目標價砍至1.41令吉,拖累股價于今早9時08分,下跌1.3%至1.53令吉,為2001年12月來低點。

 休市時,馬航報1.51令吉,跌4仙。

 步入午盤,馬航跌跌不休,並失守1.50令吉,全日見黑。

 該公司在週三宣佈業績報告,因天災人禍、油價衝高和令吉升值作祟,首季淨利按年由盈轉虧2億4234萬令吉,次季營運更艱辛。

 截至3月底首季,營業額按年下跌3%至31億9140萬令吉。

 市場揣測,馬航的兩大股東國庫控股(持股69.37%),和公積金局(持股10.9%),會否在是次困難中,再向該公司伸出援手。

 閉市時,掛1.45令吉,挫10仙,寫下2001年11月以來新低,共有1113萬9600股易手。

 若以收盤價計算,擁有無數飛機的馬航,公司市值只有13億924萬2129令吉。


Source/转贴/Extract/: 中國報
Publish date:27/05/11

WOWtv財經360 -- 0524 - 歐洲債務危機漫延至較富有國家



Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:24/05/11

Singapore Airlines: Moving Into Medium-Long Haul LCC

Singapore Airlines: Moving Into Medium-Long Haul LCC
(SELL, S$14.20, TP S$12.35)
SIA announced that it will be setting up a medium-long haul LCC subsidiary but did not provide the details. The company is applying for an Air Operators Licence (AOC) and operations are expected to begin within one year. The airline will be wholly-owned by SIA, but will be operated independently and managed separately from SIA.

Value destructive due to yield cannibalization. We are quite surprised as SIA’s former CEO was not entirely supportive of the LCC business model, notably for the long haul segment.

Furthermore, we think it would be value destructive to SIA’s premium branding and would potentially dilute yields, as was the case with Malaysia Airlines which was unable to generate any yield growth, as seen from its 1QFY11 results released yesterday.

LCC proves successful for short haul. A key to succeeding in the low cost business is
generating passenger volume and we believe this could succeed for shorter haul routes as revenue and high margins are primarily driven by ancillary income initiatives (which leverage heavily on passenger volume), as can be seen from AirAsia’s success in this aspect. We question the feasibility of long haul routes for LCCs given the fact that AirAsia X is also struggling to emulate AirAsia’s superior profitability, despite having low cost base infrastructure and the global
recognition of being a leading brand in low cost carriers in Asia. AirAsia X only made a net profit of RM80m in 2009 on the back of revenue of RM720m, which pales in comparison to AirAsia’s RM412m net profit on revenue of RM3.2bn.

Qantas made it but many have failed. We note that Qantas (with its Jetstar) has successfully differentiated its LCC product but there are many airlines which have made similar attempts i.e. Oasis Hong Kong, but have failed due to their inability to shift to a low cost base structure. SIA, being in the premium market, may face this hurdle although we think the group stands a better chance of succeeding compared to MAS given its tight cost discipline.

Providing a good base in Changi. While Changi will provide an excellent hub for the longmedium haul LCC to kick off as a key international transit hub, we think that it can only succeed as a standalone airline in absence of yield destruction. Furthermore, we do not see any difficulty for SIA in securing AOCs on favorable routes given the airline’s global reach. The dilution impact on yields could be mitigated by offering different routes (i.e. to different cities), however.

Maintain SELL. We make no changes to our earnings pending further details from
management. For now, we continue to reiterate our SELL call, with our FV unchanged at
SGD12.35 citing a weakening load factor as advanced bookings are leveling off amid
intensifying competition.

Source/转贴/Extract/:DMG&Partner
Publish date:27/05/11

KNM continues to draw investor interest

2011/05/27


KNM Group Bhd continued to draw investor interest with 591.096 million shares changing hand as at 12.30pm today despite its weak stock price.

While it continued to top the actives list, the stock lost 30 sen to close the morning session at RM2.23 after opening at RM2.44.

It dropped to a low of RM2.19 at 10.51am.

An analyst said the stocks lower price represents a golden opportunity to buy, given the company's excellent order book.

KNM announced yesterday that it had secured a RM217.8 million contract from Uzbekistan for the development of documentation and equipment supply facility "booster compressor station" at the Khauzak site.

"KNM's order book is still strong at above RM50 billion. We understand that high-end products are expected to contribute between 50-60 per cent of the total," OSK Research said in a note today.

It also believes KNM's tenderbook value remains unchanged at RM17 billion.

Thus, OSK Research said it was maintaining a "buy" recommendation on KNM with a higher fair value of RM3.91, despite its lower-than-expected results released yesterday.

The group posted a pre-tax profit of RM6.267 million for the first quarter ended March 31, 2011 compared to RM249,000 recorded in the same quarter last year on the back of revenue of RM413 million.

"KNM's 1QFY11 results were below expectations. Overall, we think the activities in the quarter remained slow, which resulted in the company making a minimal pre-tax profit.

"This was quite consistent with the RM6.9 million generated in 4QFY10," it added. -- Bernama

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.theedgemalaysia.com
Publish date:27/05/11

KNM skids to RM2.15, lowest since mid-December

KUALA LUMPUR: KNM GROUP BHD [] came under selling pressure in late afternoon on Friday, May 27, with the shares falling to a low of RM2.15, the lowest since Dec 13, 2010.

At 3.38pm, it was down 38 sen to RM2.15 with 73.09 million shares done.

The FBM KLCI rose 6.33 points to 1,547.27. Turnover was 635.06 million shares done valued at RM1.09 billion. The broader market displayed signs of weakening further, with 467 losers to 251 gainers and 299 stocks unchanged.

RHB Research Institute said KNM 1Q earnings were significantly below expectations due to legacy contracts.

“We have downgraded our call on the stock to Underperform based on 12x target PER (down from 15x) on revised FY12 EPS of 19 sen,” it said.

In the 1Q, its earnings fell to RM19.01 million from RM40.33 million a year ago.

OSK Research said KNM’s 1QFY11 results were below consensus and its expectations, making up 8% and 9% of the FY11 forecasts respectively.

“Overall, although there was improvement in its overall business activities, these remained slow, resulting in the company making a minimal PBT of only RM6.3 million, which was quite close to the RM6.9 million generated in 4QFY10. Also, its performance this quarter was boosted by the utilisation of tax incentives from Borsig’s acquisition amounting to RM12.8 million (4QFY10 of RM14.0 million),” it said.



Source/转贴/Extract/: www.theedgemalaysia.com
Publish date:27/05/11

Has SIA bitten off more than it can chew?

Business Times - 27 May 2011


Has SIA bitten off more than it can chew?

By VEN SREENIVASAN

A STROKE of brilliance or a potentially costly blunder? Industry watchers have already started debating the merits of Singapore Airlines' (SIA) decision to start up a long and medium-haul no-frills budget airline for sometime.

The move appears to be an aggressive response to competition from Middle Eastern carriers on the Australia-London kangaroo route and low-cost long-haul operators such as Jetstar and AirAsia X, which have been successfully taking significant market shares for the Asia-Pacific leasure travel. While SIA has generally managed to retain its premium customers, it has been steadily losing market share at the coach-class end of the business.

The Centre for Asia-Pacific Aviation highlighted some very telling numbers.

SIA's passenger numbers for the fiscal year ending March 2011 were 16.6 million, a mere 11 per cent total growth from 15 million exactly 10 years earlier. During the same period, Changi's traffic growth increased 32 per cent, from 28.6 million to 42 million passengers.

Over the last three years, SIA has seen its passenger traffic drop by 15 per cent, from 19.1 million in FY 2007-2008 to 16.6 million in FY 2010-2011. And despite challenging operating conditions, Changi's passenger throughput grew by 15 per cent over the same three fiscal years, from 37.3 million to 42.9 million.

Over the last three years, SIA's share of traffic at Changi shrank from 50 per cent to 35 per cent. Meanwhile, rival Qantas-Jetstar have increased their seat share from 7 per cent to 10 per cent.

Indeed, SIA's capabilities to review, analyse and strategise are well known. Its due diligence is often considered the 'gold standard' in the industry, prompting competitors to often opt for the same plane and engine options chosen by SIA. This is the airline which defined what Airbus' new A350 should be.

So when SIA says it has done extensive 'review and analysis', you'd better believe it.

The airline correctly sees a huge and untapped market for long and medium-haul leisure travel. Many holidaymakers who cannot afford a $2,500 return economy ticket to London on SIA could become customers if the fare was $1,000 lower (though initial services are likely to focus on destinations in India and China).

But the road that SIA is taking is strewn with the carcasses of previous ventures by seemingly smart investors. Viva Macao, Oasis and Zoom are names from the not-too-distant past.

Then again, Qantas' Jetstar has made a go of its long-haul offering. And Tony Fernandes' AirAsia X is continuing to grow.

SIA already has a foot in the low-cost airline segment with its one-third stake in regional budget carrier Tiger Airways. But could it be biting off more than it can chew with a long-haul offering?

The operating requirements for long haul are quite different and more demanding than for short haul. Longer flights and turnaround times, more inflight service requirements, larger crew and overnight lay-overs will impact costs.

But given flattish yield growth and cut-throat competition for coach class on its home turf, SIA has little choice but to take the fight to its rivals. Even as it fends off competitors who can offer cheaper tickets, SIA is already bracing itself for Jetstar's impending long-haul base and Qantas' pan-Asian hub operations to start up here. Malaysia's Mr Fernandes could follow suit.

Anyone who has done Marketing 101 knows that product differentiation can often be a good strategy to take on a low-end competitor without diluting one's own brand franchise. And that is what SIA appears to be doing.

But SIA, whose passenger load factor has flattened out at 75 per cent, must also expect some cannibalising of its own product by its own low-cost long-haul subsidiary. Of course, the full impact might be mitigated by flying to secondary cities or using red-eye slots.

There is also the danger that other full-service carriers with lower operating costs may 'drop' their full-service fares when the 'budget SIA' takes off.

SIA's announcement came within 24 hours after AirAsia and Malaysia Airlines announced their first-quarter earnings, which were weighed down heavily by soaring fuel prices. Those results should serve as a reminder of the potential cost pressures which even lower-cost operators struggle with.

But with some $7 billion on its balance sheet, a fleet of well-suited aircraft (SIA is likely to transfer a dozen of its 66 B777s to the new airline) and a savvy management team at the helm, SIA has the wherewithal to succeed where others failed.

But judging by its stock price performance yesterday, the market is still debating the merits of the move. While some investment houses such as UBS, CIMB and Kim Eng are positive, Citi and UOB KayHian have sell ratings on SIA.



Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:27/05/11

Boustead's Q4 hit by Libyan provisions

Business Times - 27 May 2011


Boustead's Q4 hit by Libyan provisions

But generous payout proposed as full-year net profit rises 21%

By VEN SREENIVASAN

DESPITE losses on its Libyan projects which sent it into the red for its fourth quarter, mainboard engineering company Boustead Singapore proposed a generous final payout of five cents per share after posting strong full-year earnings.

After provisions for its two Libyan projects following recent turmoil in that country, which resulted in 'other operating expenses' rising $19 million to hit $22.1 million, Boustead posted a loss of $1 million for the January-March 2011 final quarter. But revenue for the quarter was up 8 per cent to $110.1 million.

For the year ended March 31, the company lifted its revenue 28 per cent to a record $560.6 million, while net profit rose 21 per cent to $52.2 million - its second highest ever.

The cash-rich company declared a total dividend of five cents a share, comprising a final dividend of two cents per share and a special dividend of three cents per share. It paid out two cents a share in mid-year.

At the operating level, Boustead's gross profit surged 34 per cent to $178.1 million, widening its gross profit margin to 32 per cent from 30 per cent a year earlier.

Part of this came from the $67.8 million sale of IBM Singapore Technology Park.

Cash and bank balances decreased slightly to $209.8 million, but Boustead's net cash position was $184.6 million as at the end of FY2011, or a net cash per share position of 36.5 cents.

New businesses in all its core divisions did well during the last five months, with 20 contracts worth $158 million secured since January. Boustead's current order book stands at $230 million, and growing.

In terms of its four main business units, its energy- related engineering revenue rose 15 per cent to $140.9 million, thanks to the strong performance of downstream oil & gas business.

Water & wastewater engineering revenue declined 48 per cent to $28.7 million due to slower recognition from major projects compared to the previous financial year.

Real estate solutions revenue rose 61 per cent to $295.7 million. This included the $67.8 million sale of IBM Singapore Technology Park and substantial completion of two major projects for Rolls-Royce at Seletar Aerospace Park.

Geo-spatial technology revenue rose 27 per cent to $94.7 million (a new division revenue record), and included the maiden full- year contribution of acquired subsidiary MapData Services. The unit also benefited from strong sales of software and services to government agencies across exclusive markets in Australia and South-east Asia.


Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:27/05/11

Salcon 1Q FYE DEC 2011 RESULTS REPORT (NRA)

27/05/11
Salcon Berhad
Current Price : RM 0.58
Target Price: RM 0.75
1Q FYE DEC 2011 RESULTS REPORT

1. 1QFY11 Results Highlight
• Although Salcon reported a marginal 2.2% decline in turnover to RM110.4m in 1QFY11, net profit declined by 22.6% to RM4.3m.

• The lower profit performance was mainly due to lower Construction and Concession margin. In 1QFY11, EBIT from its Construction Division declined by 39.8% to RM3.3m (from RM5.5m in 1QFY10) while Concession Division saw a slight 9.0% decline in EBIT to RM4.5m (from RM4.9m in 1QFY10).

• Its Construction Division experienced a decline in profit margin due to lower-margin jobs. Salcon’s Concession Division seasonally reports a lower earnings performance in 1Q and traditionally performs better in 2Q and 3Q. In addition, the lower profitability in 1QFY11 was also due to start-up expenses.

• Finance cost nearly doubled in 1QFY11 due to heavy capex of around RM150m in FY10.

2. Earnings Outlook
• Annualised net profit for 1QFY11 is 18% below our earnings forecast for FY11. However, we are maintaining our earnings forecast for FY11, as we believe its current profit base has yet to reflect its full potential and the design capacity of the Concession segment, as some of its WTPs have yet to commence operations.

• We expect Haining WTP which was commissioned in 4QFY10 to contribute more meaningfully in 2HFY11 due to the doubling in capacity. In addition, the progressive commissioning of its other concession assets such as Changle new WTP, Changle Raw Water, Nan An Raw Water and Yizheng Water Supply that will only come on stream towards the later part of FY11.

• In addition, Salcon also secured another concession contract in Mar-11 for the Changzhou Southeast Industrial Wastewater Treatment Plant (Changzhou Southeast Industrial WWTP). This Changzhou Southeast Industrial WWTP with a capacity of 30 MLD would expand Salcon’s total capacity to 995 MLD.

3. Valuation and Recommendation

• We are maintaining our Buy recommendation on Salcon for the earnings growth in FY12-FY13 arising from the doubling in production capacity towards the latter part of FY11.

• The stock is currently trading at 26% discount to its NTA of RM0.78/share. The stock is currently trading at P/Es of 13.1x and 10.0x for FY11 and FY12.


Source/转贴/Extract/: Netresearch-Asia
Publish date:27/05/11
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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