Saturday, May 7, 2011

消费萎靡销售额骤减 日本66企业因震灾破产

2011/05/07 5:51:06 PM
●南洋商报


(东京7日讯)日本民间企业信誉调查机构——帝国数据库数据显示,截至4月30日,受大地震影响而破产的日本企业达66家,其中九成破产企业缘于地震“间接受害”。

在全部破产企业中,因房屋和设备受损的“直接受害”型破产企业只有六家,其余大多数属于“间接受害”。

比如,有20家企业因为震后消费萎靡而宣告破产,16家企业的破产缘于主要客户受灾、销售额骤减,另有11家企业因为原材料、零部件调度不及而破产。

负债13.8亿令吉

根据调查显示,66家破产企业的负债总额约为371.03亿日元(13.8亿令吉),而从业人员总数为1229人。

其中,地震海啸重灾区的岩手县、宫城县和福岛县共有破产企业10家。

从行业分布看,旅馆酒店、广告公关、餐饮等行业分别有八家、五家和四家企业破产。

比阪神大地震更遭

帝国数据库指出,调查结果显示,与1995年阪神大地震后一个半月内22家企业破产相比,这次大地震对企业的波及更广。


Source/转贴/Extract/: 南洋商报
Publish date:07/05/11

白文春:美国年杪收紧银根 令吉汇率或回软至3元

2011/05/07 6:28:00 PM
●南洋商报

(八打灵再也7日讯)经济学家白文春认为,美国今年杪会进一步收紧银根的动作,促使令吉相对趋软,因此,年底令吉汇率或回软至3令吉水平。

“美国政府已指出,有意在今年6月停止量化宽松政策,市场也预料,美国会进行一系列收紧银根的措施,包括改变对外政策、提高商业银行的法定储备率、脱售之前回购的债券等。

“这一系列的动作,都将促使美元走强。”

有鉴于此,之前已经升破3水平的令吉,可能在年底回软。但今年第二及第三季度,令吉汇率仍有可能企在2.95左右。

根据最新汇市,令吉兑美元为3.001。

白文春在南洋商报主办的《创富系列讲座》上,发表以上谈话。

“渐进式”回软

白文春强调,由于美国及马来西亚之间的利率差距仍大,因此,即使外资撤离影响货币走势,令吉也将以“渐进式”的方式回软,幅度温和。

“我认为,汇率不会重演97年币值大举滑落的现象,此次令吉即使向下,也将介于3.1至3.15左右。”

白文春说,目前令吉走强,主要是因为美国量化宽松政策、及利率差距大的影响。

根据他所提供的资料,美国及马来西亚之间的利率差距达3%,与欧元区之间的差距,也有约2.5%,这些利差有助于扶持令吉增长。

另外,虽然大马资金外流情况严重,不过来往账项的盈余庞大,继而扶持令吉走势,原产品价格涨潮,也带动令吉升值。

尽管如此,基于资金已大举流入,因此,他预测令吉上升的空间转小,甚至会开始趋软。

再加上美国经济开始复苏,并有意实施货币紧缩政策,带动美元走势看上,相对而言,造成令吉走势转弱,料于年杪达3.00。

美元不会暴跌

谈到美国经济前景,白文春说:“美国经济走势影响美元,也影响其他货币,虽然市场怀疑,美元可能暴跌,甚至跌幅达20%,但我不认同。

他说,这主要是因为,中国及日本持有大量美国债券,中国外汇储备中,美元所占比重大,各国也会扶持美元走势。”

至于美国本身,当地就业率回升,有助刺激消费,再带动经济复苏,数据显示目前消费意愿已开始走强,虽然失业率仍偏高,但相信经济会稳定成长。

白文春强调,虽然美国目前面对举债上限或超标的挑战,但他相信,国会将在5月中通过调高借贷顶限的协议,避免美国无钱还债,继而导致全球经济动荡。

对于其他货币,白文春预料欧元受到通胀及债务危机困扰,走势转弱;日元虽然经济不佳,但基于美元跌幅比日元更大,因此,日元兑美元汇率仍然向上,地震重建计划也将扶持日元走强。

白文春也预料人民币会再升值,中国政府也将在美国的施压下,允许汇率攀升5%。

听众一早“霸位” 讲座会爆满

(吉隆坡7日讯)《南洋商报》举办的“创富系列讲座之国际货币趋势与投资”讲座会座位爆满。

不少听众一早就前来会场“霸”个好位子了,在接近开讲时,人潮还是不断。

讲座会是在下午2时30分开讲,在2点45分本报视听室外注册摊位还是出现“人龙”,而且一直排到接近《南洋商报》大楼正门口。

此外,事先致电于本报报名者,还能获得免费文件夹及环保袋。

出席者多是商界人士,他们在入场者注册后,顺便购买摊位销售的《南洋商报》,礼堂内出现“人手一份商报”的现象。

《南洋商报》与汇丰银行联合主办这项活动。

讲座会旨在,强化本报的商报地位,落实“您的创富伙伴”口号。此外,希望引导公众明智投资,创造财富,以便深一层洞察理财工作及了解国内外市场的投资机会。



木材商·韩觉定(54岁):增广知识

我是透过生意伙伴介绍,跟他一同来到这次的讲座。

我们希望透过这讲座增广有关方面的知识,在生意方面较容易达到共识。

行政秘书·王微萍(44岁):了解外币趋势

我和家人第一次来到《南洋商报》总社大楼,出席这场讲座是为了多了解外币的趋势,因为在大马,可以直接得到这方面资料的管道并不多。

投资人士·黄縯丰(49岁):邀同行出席

这次是受《南洋商报》业务部邀请,因为我从事有关投资业的生意,而我本身当然很乐意出席。

如果有机会,我会邀约同行出席讲座。

公司董事·陈雪芬(49岁):鼓励员工聆听

我常鼓励我的员工多出席类似的讲座会,以紧贴市场走势。对升职有利之余,还能增广见闻。

我也带我儿子一同出席,对他就读的财务及投资科目大有帮助。

退休人士·马崇明(70岁):往后可投资

我已多次到《南洋商报》大楼出席各类讲座会,如健康的、报税的等。

今天想来听听这次的讲座,以便往后进行投资。


Source/转贴/Extract/: 南洋商报
Publish date:07/05/11

CRCT buys CapitaLand's Wuhan mall for 395m yuan

Business Times - 07 May 2011


CRCT buys CapitaLand's Wuhan mall for 395m yuan

By UMA SHANKARI

CAPITARETAIL China Trust (CRCT) has bought a mall in Wuhan for 395 million yuan (S$75.2 million) from its sponsor, CapitaLand. CRCT said yesterday that the New Minzhong Leyuan Mall, which has a net lettable area of 251,455 square feet, comprised an annex building and a conserved building and is located in Jianghan District.

The mall has a net property income (NPI) yield of 8.1 per cent, compared to the yield of 7 per cent for CRCT's existing portfolio. The proposed transaction is therefore expected to be yield-accretive to CRCT unitholders. The trust intends to fund the acquisition through either equity financing or a combination of debt and equity financing, depending on market conditions.

To demonstrate its commitment to CRCT and to align its interests with other unitholders, CapitaLand retail arm CapitaMalls Asia and its subsidiaries may subscribe to the new units to maintain their proportional stakes in CRCT, the trust said.

'New Minzhong Leyuan Mall, with its attractive yield, excellent location and strong tenant base, is a quality addition to CRCT's existing portfolio,' said Tony Tan, chief executive of CRCT's management team. 'Given the growth potential of the retail market in Wuhan, there is potential for rental upside when leases are due for renewal in the next two years . . . we also see opportunities to enhance the rental revenue of the mall through asset enhancements and further improving the mall's retail offerings.'

The mall draws a monthly shopper traffic of about 540,000 people, CRCT said. The mall is 90.6 per cent occupied now, but occupancy is expected to climb to close to 100 per cent by the end of the year, Mr Tan said.

The acquisition is the second by CRCT since it was listed in December 2006. The trust bought Xizhimen Mall in Beijing for $336 million in October 2007.

In the stock market yesterday, CRCT shares gained one cent to close at $1.27.



Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:07/05/11

Commodities dive on oil prices' steep fall

Business Times - 07 May 2011


Commodities dive on oil prices' steep fall

Investors dumped commodities such as silver, coffee and sugar, whose prices had also been surging

(New York)

COMMODITIES prices fell sharply on Thursday, led by the steepest drop in oil prices since the fall of 2008.

within the past year on expectations of strong global demand.

The sharp sell-offs in part were prompted by fears about a slowdown in economic growth in the United States and around the world.

After four months of surging higher, oil prices plummeted by 9 per cent as traders worried that US drivers were beginning to balk at paying nearly US$4 for a gallon of gasoline. Oil fell below US$100 a barrel for the first time in two months.

'Pop goes the bubble,' said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy and Economic Research, a consulting firm.

Gasoline prices have not yet declined, although analysts say that they have probably peaked and will begin falling in the next few days - probably in time for the Memorial Day weekend.

Equity markets were also lower with the Dow Jones industrial average falling 1.1 per cent while the broader Standard & Poor's 500-stock index lost 0.91 0per cent. The declines came as the markets awaited the April jobs report to be released yesterday, with analysts expecting weak employment growth.

'One day does not make a trend, but this correction was overdue,' said Addison Armstrong, senior director for market research at Tradition Energy, a consulting firm.

In a gut-wrenching drop, the Reuters-Jefferies CRB index, which measures prices for a basket of commodities such as oil, metals and grains, fell 4.9 per cent , its biggest one-day percentage drop since March 2009. The index has fallen 8 per cent over the past four days; in March, it fell nearly 7 per cent over six days.

'It was a horrendous day,' said Douglas J Hepworth, director of research at Gresham Investment Management, which specialises in commodities.

However, analysts cautioned that the respite from high commodities prices might only be temporary. The trends that have led to the rise in prices for food, energy and metals - a growing middle class in China, India and other developing countries, and the unrest in the Middle East and Northern Africa - have not gone away. Meanwhile, many economists are optimistic that the current inconsistent performance of the US economy is only temporary, and growth will strengthen later this year.

Still, many saw price drops as a healthy correction after what seemed an unsustainable run-up. The price of silver, for example, has risen 149 per cent since September 2010. The run-ups had drawn repeated warnings from the Federal Reserve in recent months that they would not last.

'I think it's very healthy,' said Michael Rose, a trader at Angus Jackson. 'The market was like a seesaw with everyone on one side, and now the markets will have time to clear out and balance.' He added, 'The losers are going to be the small investors who thought it was going to go on forever like in the cases of the real estate and Internet bubbles.'

Traders and analysts said the sell-off had a combination of causes. One of the initial triggers was comments by Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, who suggested to traders in Frankfurt that European interest rates would not be rising until later this year - later than many had anticipated.

This put downward pressure on the euro and led to a rally for the dollar. Many commodities are denominated in the dollar, and as these became more expensive globally, this immediately prompted selling in nervous commodities markets, particularly oil.

'You're in a situation where a lot of these markets have pushed to all-time highs and it's at a point where it became very unstable and that's where you started to topple,' said Dax L Wedemeyer, a broker analyst with US Commodities, a brokerage firm West Des Moines, Iowa.

He said that investment funds, including hedge funds and the long-only index funds, seemed to be pulling out of commodities.

Already on edge

But commodities markets had been on edge for days after the CME Group began to raise margin requirements at the end of last month for the silver market, requiring traders to put down extra collateral to compensate for the higher prices.

The move by the exchange, which was worried that traders could get caught out by the extreme volatility in prices that had accompanied the price rises, precipitated a sharp sell-off in silver in recent days. The silver price fell a further 8 per cent on Thursday, taking its decline to more than a quarter since the peak at the end of April.

'People reacted to the dollar, to Trichet and to silver,' said Paul Horsnell, head of commodities research at Barclays Capital. 'Silver is one of the least important markets but it had become a beacon' for unease in the commodities markets.

Market players said that investors were also nervous that regulators would soon intervene to limit what many saw as a feeding frenzy in commodities.

After surging since January, the decline in oil prices on Thursday sent the price of a barrel of light sweet crude below the psychologically important barrier of US$100.

Energy specialists say that oil was due for a price correction after rising more than 30 per cent over the past year.

The drop should feed through to the gas pump. Prices are 30 cents a gallon on average higher than a month ago and more than US$1 higher than a year ago.

'The driver can expect to see a slow erosion of prices,' said Tom Kloza, senior oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service. 'My expectation is what people pay this week will be the highest they pay for 90 days.'

Oil stockpiles in the United States and other industrial countries have been full, leading specialists to expect a correction in prices that had been driven higher, by fears that unrest overseas would spread to vital oil producers such as Saudi Arabia and Algeria.

The Energy Department reported that crude inventories last week had risen by 3.4 million barrels, largely because gasoline sales had eased. A variety of government and private surveys in recent days indicate that gasoline demand declined over the past month from 1.2 per cent to 4 per cent from the year before. Analysts said this news had been one of the factors behind the sell-off on Thursday. -- AP



Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:07/05/11

PAP's poll score and the STI a month after

Business Times - 07 May 2011


PAP's poll score and the STI a month after

By JAMIE LEE

THE bets on this year's General Election (GE) results aren't confined to office betting pools.

If punters believe that the People's Action Party (PAP) will secure a higher percentage of votes, they can take advantage of current market weakness to boost their stock portfolio, said DMG & Partners Securities in a report.

'If one believes the PAP will achieve a lower percentage of votes, then he should be reducing his equity holdings,' it added.

This is backed by data showing a correlation between a high percentage of votes won by the PAP, and a boost in the benchmark index a month later.

'Based on the past five GEs, there is no clear historical trend as to how the STI will perform over a one-month period post- Polling Day,' said DMG.

But in the 2001 GE, when the PAP won 75 per cent of votes - the highest over the past five GEs - there was an 11.9 per cent rise in the Straits Times Index (STI) in the one-month period after Polling Day.

This contrasts with the 1991 GE, when the PAP secured 61 per cent of votes (the lowest in the past five GEs) - the STI fell 3.1 per cent over the next month.

A comparison against the MSCI Asia Pacific index also showed an outperform of the STI against the regional benchmark, when the percentage of votes won by the PAP was high.

DMG's top picks are ComfortDelGro, Keppel Corp, M1 and Noble.

Analysts earlier pointed to a possible reversal in policies on immigration, housing and the casinos if the PAP registers a significant reduction in the popular vote this year. In particular, the government may tweak its property rules to curb price appreciation in the private residential property market, Nomura said last week.


Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:07/05/11

应付需求 马航拟增购86飞机

2011/05/07 10:31:23 AM
●南洋商报 独家报道:黎添华

(槟城6日讯)为开拓业务,马来西亚航空近年来正逐步增加飞机数量,目标是86架。

据《南洋商报》探悉,马航正逐步落实增加现有飞机的计划,其中,根据原定的计划来看,马航近年来正朝向在未来数年内增加86架飞机的目标,即,25架A330-300、6架A380,以及55架波音737-800。

马航北马区经理艾伦库里尔向《南洋商报》指出,该行近年来已经陆续朝这目标迈进。

其中,除了上个月已经引进的首架A330-300空中巴士外,3架波音737-800已经在去年抵达我国。

据了解,根据原定的订购数额,6架波音737-800及4架A330-300 将在今年结束前陆续抵达我国。

另外, A380则将在明年起开始运送予马航。

根据早前的报道,马航总执行长阿兹米再努丁曾说,新飞机将用于运营亚洲、中东和澳洲亚航线,并将更换部分老旧飞机,此外还将增加新运力。

拥120架飞机

另外,A380则将最终用于运营欧洲和北美市场。

马航目前各型号飞机加起来共有120架,除了新增的飞机型号外,该公司目前运营的飞机型号为747-400、777-200、A330-300、A330-200及737-400。

值得一提的是,马航去年的乘客量达1570万8000人次,而根据2010年首两个月的201万3000人次相比,2011年同时期的205万8000人次,无疑增加了4万5000人次。


Source/转贴/Extract/: 南洋商报
Publish date:07/05/11

嘉茂中国商用产业信托 买雅诗阁在武汉一房产

嘉茂中国商用产业信托(简称CRCT)以3亿9500万人民币(或7600万新元)向雅诗阁(Ascott)买下在中国湖北省武汉市中心的新民众乐园。
  又名“武汉人民广场的”的新民众乐园,是在1916年兴建,曾名“汉口新市场”、“中央人民俱乐部”及“血花世界”,是一栋有近百年历史的老楼。

  其独特之处在于由两座楼层组成,一栋是七层楼的“V”字型古典老楼,另一栋是1996年扩建的,同样是七层楼的“C”字型新楼,堪称中国唯一新旧合并商场。

  雅诗阁是嘉德置地间接拥有的独资子公司。而嘉德置地也是嘉茂中国商用产业信托的大股东。

  新民众乐园的房地产净利(net property income,简称NPI)回报率是8.1%,嘉茂中国商用产业信托管理相信,收购行动将能增加嘉茂中国商用产业信托单位持有人的回报。

  嘉茂中国商用产业信托管理主席廖青山说,在2010年,武汉取得14.7%的经济增长,零售销售额年比上涨了19.5%。

  他指出:“在强劲经济基本面的扶持下,我们有信心,新民众乐园能继续从武汉强劲的零售销售增长中受惠,并为信托的资产组合增值。

  集团总裁陈智雄指出,新民众乐园每个月的访客流量估计有54万人次。

  新民众乐园的总建筑面积超过4万平方公尺,可出租楼面达2万3361平方公尺,截至3月底,出租率达90.6%。

  陈智雄也相信,当商场的租约在两年后更新时,租金有上涨的潜能。

嘉茂中国商用产业信托打算通过借贷或私下配售新单位来融资,但需取决于市场情况而定。交易估计会今年第三季完成。

Source/转贴/Extract/:《联合早报》
Publish date:07/05/11

亚洲股市全线下滑 海指失守3100点

美国疲软的就业数据和消费者信心指数的滑落,让亚洲股市全线下滑。本地海峡时报指数昨日也小跌0.3%或10.33点至3099.52点,没能守住3100点。

  悉尼AMP Capital Investors公司投资战略主管奥利维尔(Shane Oliver)指出,全球经济复苏仍然不够稳健,现在投资者对风险的承受能力有所降低。美国投资者接连发布的数据都比较疲软,而且亚洲各经济体也逐步收紧货币政策,这导致投资者开始清仓。

  星展唯高达指出,美国隔夜股市的下滑,对本地股市也会产生影响,不过整体上来讲,不会有大动作。市场也在等待即将出炉的新加坡大选结果。

  昨日本地股市跌多升少,上升股176股,下跌股277股,没变动的866股。全场交易量缩小至9亿5308万股,交易量13亿6723万元。

  商品作为全球经济指标之一,连日来价格全面下滑,这也造成了最近资本市场的卖压。

  新加坡证券投资者协会研究指出,有投资者逢低吸纳,这对市场提供了一定的支持。不过技术指标显示,短期内下行风险居高。

  油价连续第五天下滑,令船运和航线股价昨日攀升。

  海皇轮船涨1.7%至1.84元。新航涨2.6%至14.38元,虎航涨2.7%至1.53元。

  有报告指美国和欧洲经济依然疲软,原油价格本星期连日下滑,创下自2008年12月以来的最大周跌幅。

中国航油昨日涨0.8%至1.3元。公司第一季度净利年比上扬67%至2150万美元。
  凯发涨4%至2.06元。公司第一季度净利攀升15%至740万元。

  金英证券涨0.3%至3.08元。马来亚银行表示将以每股3.1元的价格,收购其余还不拥有的股票。今年1月份,马来亚银行买入金英44.6%的股票。

  国际电子跌2%至50分。持有国际电子42%股份泉合控,计划以每股50分的价格献购国际电子其余的股票。

  大华银行跌1.6%至18.8元。银行第一季度净利达到6亿1200万元


Source/转贴/Extract/:《联合早报》
Publish date:07/05/11

两年来最大单日跌幅 大宗商品价格暴跌

新加坡综合电)大宗商品价格周四在纽约隔夜市场暴跌,出现两年来的最大单日跌幅。在各方担忧全球经济之际,投资者集体逃离市场,并引发股市抛售。
  白银价格周四大跌12%,芝加哥商业交易所(CME)之前再度将纽约商品期货交易所(COMEX)期银的保证金上调,银价跌势拖累金价下跌3%,引发一波惨烈抛盘,从石油到铜等大宗商品皆大跌,纽约油价跌破每桶100美元。

  大宗商品价格昨天在亚洲市场回稳,北海原油、黄金、白银均在隔夜暴跌后收回部分失地。投资者担心,原材料价格的飙升正削弱需求,并迫使新兴国家的央行加息,以努力抑制失控的通胀。

  投资者昨天的焦点转移到美国将公布的非农就业数据,盼从中判断对经济的担忧是否杞人忧天。美国在本地时间昨天晚上公布,4月非农就业人数增加24万4000人,高于市场预期,但是失业率五个月以来首次回升,自8.8%升至9%。

  金价周四在纽约跌至每安士1462.45美元,昨天在伦敦市场回升到1485.82美元。白银价格则继续滑落至每安士34.50美元。北海原油6月期货和纽约原油6月期货,在亚洲早盘一度回弹,但是后劲不足,到昨天晚上,北海原油报109.94美元,纽约原油报98.65美元。

  追踪一篮子大宗商品的基准路透/杰佛瑞大宗商品期货价格指数星期四暴跌5%后,昨天回弹0.3%。

  经纪商全球曼式金融(MF Global)驻纽约的大宗商品分析师梅尔(Edward Meir)说:“这值得记载。你看到所有人都在退出大宗商品交易。”

  巴克莱资本的金属分析师贝瑞补充,“这是可怕的举动。这反映出这些市场有多么不安。”

  不过,分析师警告,大宗商品市场可能会快速反弹,就像过去一年经历类似的调整之后市场的表现一样。

  直到上周,大宗商品都是2011年表现最佳的资产,取得超过10%的涨幅。星期四的价格暴跌,导致亚太股市昨天全盘走跌,能源和资源类股在亚洲股市领跌。在大宗商品重挫前,这两类股一直在亚洲股市表现最佳。


Source/转贴/Extract/:《联合早报》
Publish date:07/05/11

Spice i2i updates

1. Proposed acquisition of Indonesia’s Affinity Group

Reference should be made to the SGX-ST announcement released by the Company on SGXNET on 2 May 2011 (the “2 May 2011 Announcement”) wherein it was announced that the Company has exercised its discretion to postpone the Completion Date by ten (10) Business Days from 30 April 2011 to 16 May 2011, pending the fulfilment of certain Conditions Precedent and Completion obligations of the Vendor.

The Company had, during its due diligence process, found that the stated US$32.6 million in net assets (as at 31 December 2010) on Affinity Group's books appears to have a gap of about US$10 million. These are preliminary findings of the Company’s internal team and the Company is seeking clarification from the Affinity Group on this issue. The Company is also separately seeking guidance from a local adviser on this issue. All such findings, including the due diligence report, will be placed before the Board for consideration.

The Company expects the Audited Accounts to be finalized by the Vendor soon and the Company will make the appropriate announcement in accordance with the Listing Manual of the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Ltd in due course.

Capitalised terms not defined in this paragraph 1 shall bear the same meanings ascribed to them in the circular to shareholders in relation to "The Proposed Shareholders' Approval for the Acquisition of the Cellular Business and the "Nexian" brand of the Affinity Group" dated 14 March 2011.


2. Suggestion of a preliminary study on leveraging synergy/merger of the Company with Spice Mobility Limited which is listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange

The Company’s Chairman Dr Modi was quoted by the Indian media recently that he might look at the options to synergize Singapore-listed Spice i2i and Spice Mobility Limited, which is listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange. The suggestion to do so came from the most recent meeting with stakeholders of Spice Mobility Limited, who mooted the idea since both companies share a common synergistic supply chain and a common brand. No plan or proposal have been presented to the Board or the Company with respect to this matter.

The Company wishes to clarify that it is always open to evaluating avenues to improve efficiencies and enhance shareholder value.

If there is any material development, the Company would issue appropriate and timely announcements in compliance with the listing rules of the SGX-ST.


Source/转贴/Extract/: SGX announcement
Publish date:06/05/11

Economic growth allows for interest rate hike

The Star Online > Business
Saturday May 7, 2011

Economic growth allows for interest rate hike

By JAGDEV SINGH SIDHU
jagdev@thestar.com.my

It was a surprise for many when Bank Negara decided to increase both the benchmark interest rate in the country - the overnight policy rate (OPR) - and the statutory reserve requirement (SRR) after its monetary policy committee (MPC) met on Thursday.

Most were predicting one or the other. In fact, the bias for a OPR hike of 25 basis points to 3%, which Bank Negara decided was right given the momentum the economy, was less than a half chance of taking place.

The SRR move was largely anticipated given the ongoing concerns of an overload of liquidity in the market, and the previous action taken by the central bank to hike the amount of money banks set aside at the previous meeting of the MPC.

“The policy statement signalled that future policy moves will be data dependent as the bank will assess the balance of risks between growth and inflation prospects.

“Bank Negara reiterated that the overall monetary stance should remain accommodative, suggesting that interest rates would remain appropriate to safeguard growth while keeping inflation in check.” says CIMB Research in a note yesterday.

Together, the action would give banks a leeway in raising interest rates to offset the higher cost of funds as a result of putting more money aside as SRR.

The MPC statement on Thursday, nonetheless, was cognisant of the rising inflationary pressures globally and at home. Inflation in Malaysia rose to 3% in March.

“The increase was mainly due to higher food and fuel prices. The assessment is that supply factors will continue to be a key determinant affecting consumer prices,” says the central bank.

“Global commodity and energy prices are projected to remain elevated during the year, with inflation in major trading partners also expected to rise further.

“There are also some signs that domestic demand factors could exert upward pressure on prices in the second half of the year.”

The hesitant with increasing interest rates to fight inflation is that the current wave of higher costs has been cost pushed instead of demand led.

With inflation a result of higher input prices such as crude oil and other commodities, the real effectiveness of using interest rates to combat that element of inflation would have little or none direct impact.

But the other need to use interest rates to combat inflation is in the expectations side.

If higher inflation leads to people believing the environment of high prices is here to stay, then that would lead to wage inflation.

Should wage inflation exceed productivity gains, then there would be a loss of competitiveness.

Furthermore, inbuilt higher inflationary expectations and the eventual realisation of that would also damage the productive side of the economy as investments, capacity expansion and eventually job creation would all be affected.

Strength of the economy

Economists say the strength of the economy in the first quarter was a key factor in allowing interest rates to resume their path towards normalisation.

Loans growth, a key indicator of economic activity, grew by 13.2% in March from a year ago with both consumers and businesses increasing their borrowings that would have a positive impact on domestic demand for the first quarter.

“Going by the statement, we believe the first quarter GDP could have come within Bank Negara's expectations, with 1Q11 growth likely to have matched 4Q10's 4.8% or even surprised on the high side,” says AmResearch Sdn Bhd senior economist Manokaran Mottain in a note.

Maybank Investment Bank Bhd, in a note, says the broader economic assessment remained the same, whereby the global economy recovery is continuing albeit at different paces between regions.

It says the expansion in the Malaysian economy is sustained, underpinned by domestic demand, especially private sector spending.

“The local economy is expected to remain firmly on a steady growth path, with growth improving gradually during the course of the year, while the developments in Japan are expected to have a limited impact,” it adds.

The health of the domestic economy has now been somewhat matched by Malaysia's exports, which in March rose 7.8% year-on-year and higher than what the market was expecting.

“The performance of exports so far this year has been stronger than past years. Looking at the whole of (the first quarter), which should smooth out the Chinese New Year effect and some of the volatilities in commodity exports, exports were up 7.5% year-on-year,” says Credit Suisse economist Wu Kun Lung in a note yesterday.

Inflationary pressures will be lower?

One driver of inflation has been the rising cost of commodities but the extent of the brutal selldown in commodities over the past week will have a significant bearing on inflation should the slump prove to be more than just a blip.

Crude oil dipped below US$100 a barrel and the panic on the commodities market dragged down a whole bunch of hard and soft commodities, including agricultural products, which would be a release valve for inflationary pressure.

The drop in prices will be worrisome for Malaysia with the country being an exporter of crude oil and palm oil. It is also a large producer of rubber and has significant production of other cash crops such as cocoa which too saw prices dip over the past week.

Wu says commodity exports may weaken in the next few months following the recent drop in palm oil, rubber, and crude oil prices.

“However, commodity prices were still at a high level. Unless there is a collapse in commodity prices (which we do not expect), Malaysia's exports should continue to improve for the rest of 2011 along with the on-going recovery in the G3's growth,” he says.

“This is likely to encourage Bank Negara to allow further appreciation of the ringgit in the coming months.”

Source/转贴/Extract/: The Star Online
Publish date:07/05/11

Prices surge in Iskandar

The Star Online > Business
Saturday May 7, 2011

Prices surge in Iskandar

By THOMAS HUONG
huong@thestar.com.my


PROPERTY prices in certain areas within Iskandar Malaysia rose dramatically last year, after nearly a decade of lacklustre demand, according to property consultants interviewed by StarBizWeek.

The soaring property prices mainly involves new commercial, industrial and high-end residential units around Johor Baru, the Tebrau corridor and Nusajaya, all within the economic growth corridor in Johor.

KGV-Lambert Smith Hampton (Johor) Sdn Bhd executive director Samuel Tan says that property prices have appreciated by between 45% and 160%, depending on the type of property and location, compared with prices five years ago.

“A Danga View Apartment unit that was valued at RM240,000 five years ago can be sold at RM350,000 today,” says Tan.

A similar trend in property prices is noted in double-storey terrace houses in Taman Bukit Indah, Johor Baru, which Tan says are fetching RM380,000 (compared with RM250,000 in 2006). A vacant land in the Southern Industrial Logistics Cluster (SILC) in Nusajaya is now being valued at RM37 per sq ft (compared with RM21 per sq ft previously) and a piece of commercial land around Jalan Datuk Abdullah Tahir, is fetching RM320 per sq ft (compared with RM150 per sq ft in 2006).

Rahim & Co (Johor) Sdn Bhd executive director Loo Kung Hoe says the property boom has resulted in “peak excitement” at auctions.

“In the past, people were careful and there was little interest in auctions. Nowadays, they bid as high as they can for both residential and commercial properties,” says Loo.

Factors behind rise

According to Tan, the strong demand for property is being fuelled by fears of inflation, real needs for housing and the purchasing power of Malaysians working in Singapore.

“There are an estimated 300,000 Malaysians working in the republic and property buyers are impressed by the rapidly developing infrastructure and road networks they see in Iskandar Malaysia.”

Tan notes that the housing and commercial landscape in Iskandar Malaysia has transformed with the entry of property developers such as UEM Land Holdings Bhd, SP Setia Bhd, UDA Holding Bhd, Bandar Raya Developments Bhd, Mah Sing Group Bhd and IOI Properties Bhd.

“In the past, buyers were satisfied with basic one-storey houses. Today, buyers look at factors such as prestige, security and the developer’s track record. In another five years, when new residential and commercial areas mature in Iskandar Malaysia, prices will be even higher,” says Tan.

He opines that there is still a lot of upside for the property market in Iskandar Malaysia, especially around the Johor Baru city centre, compared with the Klang Valley.

“The year 2012 will be the tipping point, when projects such as Johor Premium Outlet in Indahpura and Legoland Theme Park in Nusajaya are up and running,” says Tan.

CB Richard Ellis (Johor) Sdn Bhd director Wee Soon Chit adds that the buying euphoria in Johor is also being fuelled by speculation from Klang Valley investors.

Wee says investors’ confidence in the region is also boosted by recent reports of a joint venture between Khazanah Nasional Bhd and Temasek Holdings for a “Wellness City” development in Danga Bay.

Strong demand

Loo says there is a strong demand for high-end residential properties such as Leisure Farm Resort in Gelang Patah (developed by Mulpha International Bhd), as well as East Ledang (developed by UEM Land Holdings Bhd) and Horizon Hills (a joint venture between UEM Land and Gamuda Land Sdn Bhd) in Nusajaya.

Another “hot” growth area in Johor Baru is the Tebrau corridor which encompasses the Setia Indah township, Taman Desa Tebrau, Taman Pelangi Indah, and Sunway College in Taman Mount Austin, according to Wee.

However, PA International Property Consultants Sdn Bhd executive director V. Sivadas, who is based in Johor Baru, says the strong demand for high-end properties has not translated into higher prices in the secondary market for older single and double-storey houses in Johor Baru. “The residential sector around Johor Baru is split into two different worlds,” he says.

“New housing units feature the latest designs and many are in gated and guarded developments. A premium is attached to such units, due to security concerns. Within this housing segment, prices have been strong with upward movements of between 10% and 30% over the last two years. These areas include Austin Heights, Taman Sutera Utama, Adda Heights and Horizon Hills.

“Double-storey terrace or cluster units in these schemes are now averaging between RM380,000 and RM500,000. Larger units such as semi-detached houses continue to attract a steady demand, in both the developer and sub-sale markets. Prices here are in the RM500,000 to RM1 mil range.”

However, demand for new double-storey terrace houses which are not located in gated and guarded developments, in the secondary market is very weak.

“There is little price appreciation upon building completion. In most instances, we note a reduction in sub-sale transaction prices,” says Sivadas.

A recent PA International report also points out that there is little demand for old landed housing units around Johor Baru, with some units even priced at pre-1997 rates.

“We do not expect price escalations here due to these being older schemes, as well as due to the continuous offerings of new landed housing units in the market. However, older schemes in the city area such as Kim Teng Park, Serene Park and Taman Pelangi are an exception to this pricing.”

In the condominium sector, the report says that demand remains strong in Johor Baru, due to limited supply in the market.

Prices for high-end condominiums such as that of Petrie Condominium, Johor Baru and the Straits View in Bandar Baru Permas Jaya have exceeded RM350 per sq ft.

The Straits View condominiums which had transacted sales in the region of RM250 to RM300 per sq ft in 2008, are fetching between RM300 to RM350 per sq ft at present.

Service apartments like Ujana in Nusajaya are sold out, while D’Esplanade Residence @ KSL City in Century Gardens, Johor Baru is expected to “do well” as it nears completion, says the report.

However, the PA International report paints a depressing picture for low- and medium-priced apartments.

Apartments in the RM150,000 price range over the last few years, have dipped to below RM100,000 in the secondary market in most areas.

“The number of units put up for sale by public auction companies continues to be be high. This is happening in areas such as Masai, Pasir Gudang, Plentong and Kulai,” says the report.

Boom time

Sivadas says double- and 3-storey shop offices in newer housing estates such as in Taman Nusa Bestari in Nusajaya and in Taman Sutera Utama and Taman Molek in Johor Baru have appreciated in prices over the last two years.

“In most instances, units facing busy main roads and those in established commercial areas, have appreciated by 50%. New 3-storey units offered by developers are at substantially higher prices. All riding on the wave of this euphoria,” says Sivadas.

The PA International report notes that, 3-storey shop offices in Taman Molek that were launched at RM800,000 (intermediate unit) in mid 2000, have an asking price of RM1.3 million today.

In Taman Desa Tebrau, Johor Baru, a 3-storey shop office launched at RM768,000 three years ago, is hovering between RM900,000 and RM1mil today.

The report also notes that rentals for 3-storey shop offices are in the region RM5,000 to RM8,000 per month (intermediate unit), and RM15,000 to RM25,000 per month (corner unit).

Sivadas adds that gross yields for such properties are lower. They have dropped from 6% to 7% two years ago, to about 5% per annum for intermediate units as rental levels are generally unchanged.

Loo points out that some transactions did not seem to be sensible like the shoplots that were launched last year in Taman Sutera Utama, Johor Bahru at RM2.08mil (intermediate unit) and RM2.3 to RM2.6 million (corner unit).

“Currently, the monthly rental is about RM7,500 (intermediate unit) and could go up to RM13,000 (corner unit). So, the yield is between 4.3% and 6% per annum if rentals remain at the current levels when the new shoplots are completed. Perhaps buyers are expecting higher rental yields in the near future.”

He adds that the existing intermediate shoplots in Taman Sutera Utama, launched in mid 2000 were sold at between RM700,000 and RM750,000 per unit and were presently priced at between RM1.5mil and RM1.7mil per unit in the sub-sale market.

Sivadas says that generally, the office space market has fared poorly since the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and 1998.

“Rentals within office towers in and around the city centre continue to hover at RM1.50 to RM2.50 per sq ft per month, inclusive of service charges, thus making this sector a less attractive investment option.”

Also, the retail sector within the city centre have been stagnant over the past year in terms of pricing and rental levels.

Sivadas places part of the blame on the relocation of the Customs, Immigration and Quarantine (CIQ) to Bukit Cagar in December 2008, which he says has diverted traffic and pedestrians away from the city centre.

He also says that there are abandoned retail complexes in Johor Baru, such as Pacific Mall, Kemayan City in Tampoi, and Lot 1 Waterfront City.

There is also ample supply of commercial complexes, such as Aero Mall at Senai, Tesco at Bukit Indah and Giant at Nusa Bestari.

“With massive commercial projects being planned in Danga Bay and Nusajaya, we expect office rentals in the city centre to remain stagnant for the next year.”

Positive near-term outlook

Areas such as Tampoi, Kempas, Seelong, Senai and Nusajaya have seen a gradual increase in the values of industrial land.

The PA International report says converted industrial lands in Tampoi were sold at between RM30 and RM40 per sq ft within the last two years (compared with between RM20 and RM25 per sq ft in mid-2000).

Prices of converted industrial land in Seelong, Kulaijaya and along Jalan Kempas Lama have doubled or more than doubled within the last two years (compared with mid-2000 prices).

“Nusajaya is also a hotspot. Prices in the Nusa Cemerlang Industrial Park, developed by Crescendo Corp Bhd is up by 50% when compared with 2008,” says Wee.

Sivadas says that while the immediate outlook for Iskandar Malaysia is positive, with various projects in the region expected to have a multitude of effects resulting in more job opportunities and higher incomes, it remains to be seen whether the property boom for new developments can be sustained in the long term.

“The key factors now are sustaining demand, and ensuring that supply does not go out of hand,” says Sivadas.

Source/转贴/Extract/: The Star Online
Publish date:07/05/11

Slower growth worry hits commodities

The Star Online > Business
Saturday May 7, 2011

Slower growth worry hits commodities

By FINTAN NG
fintan@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: Commodity prices from crude oil to rubber posted losses for the week as concerns of slower growth and the tightening monetary policy stance of Asian policymakers affecting demand prompted a move to safe-haven investments such as the yen and US Treasury notes.

Observers said investors were still cautious as the recovery, particularly in the developed economies, was still fragile while inflation in emerging economies could now affect demand.

Nomura Singapore Ltd economist Euben Paracuelles told StarBizWeek that the bullish sentiments in the commodity markets could have been impacted by Asian policymakers' move to tighten monetary policy.

The move came as a run-up in commodity prices to multi-year highs have largely been due to rising demand especially from China and India over the past two years.

This has stoked inflation with food prices soaring and made worst by the higher cost of transportation.

“There may be concerns that with inflation rising, growth in the emerging economies will slow at some time,” Paracuelles pointed out.

Malaysia and the Philippines raised benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday while India raised the repurchase rates on May 3 by 50 basis points.

Credit Suisse Group AG economist Kun Lung Wu said in a report that Bank Negara might raise rates by 50 basis points within the next 12 months as the increase suggested the central bank was more comfortable with the domestic growth outlook.

He added that the next rate hike was likely to be earlier rather than later.

Meanwhile, China might increase rates again next week after the People's Bank of China said in its quarterly monetary report that stabilising prices and inflation expectations were its current priority.

The jitters among investors were reinforced by the latest US jobs data, which showed initial jobless claims were higher than expected.

Investors reacted by a sell-off on Wall Street on Thursday.

The sell-off continued intoyesterday with Asian markets closing in the red.

Red flags were also raised after European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet said an interest rate hike in June was unlikely.

United Overseas Bank Ltd economist Ho Woei Chen said risk appetite could also have taken a backseat after a report by a housing data firm showed a possible double-dip in house prices.

“Economic recovery is still choppy and we can see risks coming back again to the eurozone, in particular for the weaker members who'll be holding bond auctions in the coming weeks,” she said.



Source/转贴/Extract/: The Star Online
Publish date:07/05/11

UPDATE ON REPAYMENT OF YK SHINTOKU LOAN

The Board of Directors of Japan Residential Assets Manager Limited, the manager
(“Manager”) of Saizen Real Estate Investment Trust (“Saizen REIT”), would like to provide an update on the repayment of the loan of YK Shintoku (the “YK Shintoku Loan”).

YK Shintoku has made a repayment of JPY 450 million (S$6.7 million1) on the YK Shintoku Loan on 21 April 2011. Following this repayment and taking into account YK Shintoku’s cash reserves, the net outstanding loan of YK Shintoku amounts to approximately JPY 0.7 billion (S$10.5 million).

The above-mentioned repayment was made using proceeds from a loan obtained by GK
Gyokou, a TK operator of Saizen REIT, on 20 April 20112.

Source/转贴/Extract/: SGX announcement
Publish date:21/04/11

UPDATE ON REPAYMENT OF YK SHINTOKU LOAN

UPDATE ON REPAYMENT OF YK SHINTOKU LOAN
AND UTILISATION OF WARRANT PROCEEDS

Further to Saizen Real Estate Investment Trust’s (“Saizen REIT”) announcement made on 6 April 2011, the Board of Directors of Japan Residential Assets Manager Limited, the manager of Saizen REIT (the “Manager”), would like to provide an update on the repayment of the loan of YK Shintoku (the “YK Shintoku Loan”).

YK Shintoku has made a repayment of JPY 2.1 billion (S$31.2 million1) on the YK Shintoku Loan on 11 April 2011. Following this repayment and taking into account YK Shintoku’s cash reserves, the net outstanding loan of YK Shintoku amounts to approximately JPY 1.8 billion (S$26.7 million).

Since the issue of warrants by Saizen REIT in June 2009, 225,683,556 warrants have been exercised as at 8 April 2011, being the market day immediately preceding the date of this announcement.

Such warrant exercises have raised proceeds of approximately S$20.3 million, of which
approximately S$0.3 million has been used for working capital purposes. The remaining
warrant proceeds of approximately S$20.0 million (JPY 1.3 billion) have now been deployed towards the above-mentioned repayment of the YK Shintoku Loan.

Source/转贴/Extract/: SGX announcement
Publish date:11/04/11

REPAYMENT PLAN FOR YK SHINTOKU LOAN

The Board of Directors of Japan Residential Assets Manager Limited, the manager
(“Manager”) of Saizen Real Estate Investment Trust (“Saizen REIT”), wishes to announce that it has approved a loan repayment plan (the “Repayment Plan”) which has been sent to the loan servicer of the commercial mortgage-backed-securities loan of YK Shintoku (the “YK Shintoku Loan”) on 6 April 2011.

The YK Shintoku Loan went into maturity default on 2 November 2009. Since then, the
lender has the right to foreclose on the properties of YK Shintoku at any time, but has not done so thus far. During this time, YK Shintoku has been paying down the loan via proceeds from the divestment of its properties as well as its operational cash flow.

The Manager is confident that, given Saizen REIT’s current cash position and taking into account the progress of the divestment of Saizen REIT’s properties, the YK Shintoku Loan can be repaid by the end of May 2011. In this regard, the Manager has decided that it is now an appropriate time to set out a schedule for the full repayment of the YK Shintoku Loan, with the intention of averting any foreclosure actions which will lead to unfavourable outcomes, including the properties of YK Shintoku possibly being auctioned off at substantially discounted prices. The Manager also believes that, given YK Shintoku’s net outstanding loan balance of approximately JPY 4.2 billion 1 (S$62.9 million 2 ) and YK Shintoku’s current portfolio value of approximately JPY 6.1 billion3 (S$91.3 million), the repayment of the loan is the best use of Saizen REIT’s resources. The repayment of the loan by instalments can also enable YK Shintoku to progressively reduce its interest expenses4.

The repayment schedule under the Repayment Plan is as follows:
(a) repayment of not less than JPY 2.0 billion (S$29.9 million) on 11 April 2011;
(b) repayment of approximately JPY 0.8 billion (S$12.0 million) between 12 April 2011 and 30 May 2011, through proceeds from the disposals of YK Shintoku’s properties, including those currently under negotiation or pending completion; and
(c) repayment of the balance amount on or before 31 May 2011.

The Repayment Plan entails Saizen REIT committing internal resources, other than those of YK Shintoku, of approximately JPY 3.4 billion5 (S$50.9 million). Following the completion of the Repayment Plan, the entire property portfolio of YK Shintoku, currently valued at JPY 5.9 billion3 (S$88.3 million), will be unencumbered.

The Repayment Plan is currently being discussed and has not been agreed to by the lender.

Notwithstanding the Repayment Plan, the lender still retains the right and may commence foreclose application on the properties of YK Shintoku until such time when the YK Shintoku Loan is fully repaid. Such foreclosure actions are expected to take a period of six months or more before the properties are sold via an auction conducted by the court. The Manager is confident that the outstanding loan will be fully repaid well within such a timeframe, and accordingly, does not think such foreclosure actions will be necessary, nor will such foreclosure actions derail the resolution of the default. The Manager may also consider disputing such foreclosure actions, if taken, including pursuing the recovery of any related legal costs from the lender as appropriate.

The Repayment Plan is not expected to have any impact on Saizen REIT’s distributions to be made in accordance with its distribution policy.
------------------------
1 The current outstanding balance of the YK Shintoku Loan is approximately JPY 4.8 billion (S$71.9 million). Taking into account cash reserves of JPY 0.6 billion (S$9.0 million) maintained by YK Shintoku under the loan agreement, the net outstanding loan of YK Shintoku amounts to approximately JPY 4.2 billion (S$62.9 million).

2 Based on an exchange rate of S$1.00 to JPY 66.8 as at 5 April 2011, which is applied throughout this announcement.

3 This valuation relates to 36 properties of YK Shintoku, including Global Matsukawa Building (sale transaction pending completion). The number and value of YK Shintoku’s properties upon completion of the Repayment Plan may vary depending on the number of properties divested during this period.

4 A default interest rate of 7.07% per annum is charged on the YK Shintoku Loan.



Source/转贴/Extract/: SGX announcement
Publish date:06/04/11

57金錢爆 三猩丟石頭 托拉斯噴火

20101209 東森財經新聞 57金錢爆 三猩丟石頭 托拉斯噴火










Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:29/04/11

Pantech plans RM150mil investment over five years

The Star Online > Business
Friday May 6, 2011

Pantech plans RM150mil investment over five years

By ZAZALI MUSA
zaza@thestar.com.my


PASIR GUDANG: Pantech Group Holdings Bhd will invest RM150mil in the next five years, starting from this year, to further expand and strengthen its operations in Johor.

Executive chairman and group managing director Datuk Jimmy Chew Ting Leng said the figure was part of the RM250mil allocation earmarked for its investment here.

He said the total allocation would be used to streamline the manufacturing, warehousing and trading activities, as well as building a corporate office here.

“We have so far invested RM100mil in land acquisition, building construction and purchase of machines for our new plant here,’’ Chew said yesterday.

He was speaking in a press conference at the opening of the group’s new plant, Pantech Stainless & Alloy Industries Sdn Bhd, at Pasir Gudang industrial estate by deputy finance minister Datuk Donald Lim Siang Chai. Also present at the event were group deputy managing director Datuk Goh Teoh Kean and Johor state executive councillor for international trade and energy Tan Kok Hong.

Chew said the company had only utilised 30% of the total 10.52ha for the Pasir Gudang plant with an initial capacity of 7,000 metric tonnes yearly, producing mainly stainless steel-welded pipes and fittings.

He said the company would double output at the Pasir Gudang plant by the end of the year and planned to go into production of alloy or high yield products in the near future.

“We are targeting local and foreign players in the oil and gas (O&G) sector as clients for our new products produced at the plant here and export markets as our main focus,’’ said Chew. He said the company’s decision to set up the plant in Pasir Gudang was to tap on the good prospects in the O&G sector, slated to become the next major economy activity in Johor.

Johor is now positioning the Tanjung Langsat industrial area here as an O&G zone while Teluk Ramunia and Pengerang in Johor’s southeast areas will be developed into the region’s new O&G hub.

Similarly, Chew said the company would expand its existing plant in Meru, Klang this year which has been in operations for 11 years and that tender for the expansion works would be called soon.

Pantech Group started operations in 1987, as a trading house and ventured into the manufacturing of carbon steel fittings in 2000, with the commissioning of the Pantech Steel Industries Sdn Bhd plant in Klang.

Source/转贴/Extract/:The Star Online
Publish date:06/05/11

CapitaRetail China Trust buys mall in Wuhan from sister company

05:35 PM May 06, 2011CapitaRetail China Trust (CRCT) has agreed to buy a mall in China from sister firm Ascott Holdings.

CRCT said on Friday it will acquire New Minzhong Leyuan Mall in Wuhan's shopping and entertainment belt for 395 million yuan (S$76 million).

Both CRCT and Ascott Holdings are units of property developer CapitaLand.

CRCT, with a portfolio valued at S$1.2 billion, said it expects the transaction to be yield-accretive to its unitholders. New Minzhong Leyuan Mall has a net property income (NPI) yield of 8.1 per cent compared to the NPI of 7 per cent for CRCT's entire portfolio.

The mall is almost 15 years old and comprises an annexed building and a conserved building. It has a total of 393 leases and a committed occupancy of 90.6 per cent over its net lettable area of 23,361 square metres.

Major tenants include McDonald's, KFC, Pizza Hut, and cinema operators Studio City, with most other tenants selling fashion items and accessories.

CRCT said independent valuations from CB Richard Ellis and Knight Frank for New Minzhong Leyuan Mall amount to 417 million yuan and 422 million yuan, respectively.

Retail spending from the mall is expected to reach 35.9 billion yuan by 2015, up from 14.4 billion yuan in 2009.

As 64.2 per cent and 24.8 per cent of the mall's leases expire in 2011 and 2012 respectively, this will mean potential rental increases through lease renewal, CRCT said.

- Jo-Ann Huang


Source/转贴/Extract/:www.todayonline.com
Publish date:07/05/11

Indonesia imposes more sanctions on Citi as fraud probe continues

08:35 PM May 06, 2011
JAKARTA - Bank Indonesia on Friday announced additional sanctions against Citigroup as investigations continue into the alleged embezzlement of millions of dollars and the death of a debtor.

"Bank Indonesia has found the bank violated its own internal procedures, as well as weaknesses in its implementation of risk management," Bank Indonesia Deputy Governor Budi Rochadi told a news conference without providing details of the central bank's findings.

As a result of the investigations, Mr Rochadi said, the central bank imposed a number of restrictions on Citi's operations in Indonesia, including a one-year ban on the local unit signing new clients to its Citigold wealth management unit and a two-year ban on issuing new credit cards.

The central bank also forbade Citi's local unit from opening new branches in Indonesia for one year and imposed an offshore travel ban on some of the unit's executives, effective from Friday, while investigations contiue.

Last month, Bank Indonesia announced it had banned Citi from accepting new clients for its wealth-management unit and issuing credit cards but didn't specify the duration of the bans.

Mr Rochadi said Bank Indonesia reserved its right to impose more severe penalties on Citi if further investigations uncover more serious anomalies. He said the highest penalty that could be imposed on the bank was the cancellation of its licence to operate a business in Indonesia.

Citigroup wasn't immediately available for comment. However, on April 28 it revealed it had hired more than 1,400 debt collection staff in Indonesia after the country's central bank criticised it for outsourcing that function.

Bank Indonesia on Friday also ruled that Citi could not outsource its debt collection services for two years.

The central bank and the police launched probes into Citi's operations in February after the bank alerted regulators to suspicious transactions conducted by relationship manager Inong Malinda Dee at its Landmark Branch.

Ms Dee was detained on March 23 and charged with stealing at least 17 billion rupiah (S$2.4 million) from clients after obtaining signed blank checks from them. Police also seized cars in her possession. Her lawyer refused to comment when contacted recently.

The police are also investigating the death of a Citi client who died last month after meeting with debt collectors contracted by Citi's Jakarta branch. The circumstances surrounding the death of Mr Irzen Octa, the secretary-general of the National Unity Party, one of Indonesia's minor political parties, remain unclear.

Citi's country manager for Indonesia, Mr Shariq Mukhtar, told a parliamentary hearing last month that Citi didn't believe "anyone physically harmed Octa" while he was in Citi's offices.

When asked about the bank's debt collection practices, Mr Mukhtar told the hearing that Citi has "strong controls and robust processes to ensure we satisfy all local legal and regulatory requirements regarding debt collection. - DOW JONES

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.todayonline.com
Publish date:07/05/11

Zeti: Move to raise interest rate will not hamper growth

2011/05/07


KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia's move to raise interest rate will not hamper the country's economic growth, Bank Negara Malaysia governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz said.

"Interest rate remains important for growth. Interest rates that are too low would undermine our future prospects.

"What we have in place will continue to provide support to our economy," she told reporters after launching Labuan Financial Services Authority Annual Report 2011, here yesterday.

She said this when asked to comment on Bank Negara's move to raise the benchmark Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) by 25 basis points (0.25 per cent) to 3 per cent on Thursday.

The central bank raised the interest rate in a move to tackle growing inflationary risks and many observers felt that Bank Negara would prefer to push for growth before addressing inflation.

Apart from the OPR, Bank Negara also announced the increase in statutory reserve requirement (SRR) ratio for banks from 2 per cent to 3 per cent, effective May 16.

The SRR, which determines the sum banks keep at the central bank was raised to 2 per cent last month but Bank Negara's monetary committee defended the move, citing that the stance was supportive of growth. - By Kamarul Yunus

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.btimes.com.my
Publish date:07/05/11

Friday, May 6, 2011

Local Market's Outlook Unaffected By Singapore's Election Fever

Our Comments:

- With Polling day a day away, markets are rife with hesitation of what might transpire come the announcement of the results. Regardless of the various permutations and combinations of possible results, market fundamentals are not expected to change. We believe that the local market’s fundamentals, earnings growth and attractive valuations remain healthy amidst the on-going election fever, leaving one with methods to invest regardless of the result of this year’s ‘water-shed’ elections.

Scenario 1 - A CLEAN SWEEP
• Government to press-on with its pro-growth policies whilst giving consideration to and passing measures to sooth the electorate’s well-documented unhappiness
• Local market welcomes the result due to the historical pro-growth and pro-business policies of the incumbents, business as usual

Scenario 2 – An Incumbent Majority (most probable)
• Government likely to recalibrate its pro-growth policies, paying more attention to and perhaps introducing semi-protectionist policies in favour of the citizenry
• Local market re-examines the strong fundamentals and finds the underlying intact, as a result, the market doesn’t miss a step

Scenario 3 – A House Divided
• Government to re-examine its pro-growth policy of growth at any social/intangible cost. Opposition likely to reject policies believed to be or deemed unfavourable or unpopular to the general public at large
• Local market digests the news, short term volatility would not be unexpected, but long-term trend should remain intact given that politicians realise that social stability, is to a very large extent, dependent on the economic survivability of Singapore


HOW THEN TO RIDE THE POTENTIAL SCENARIOS?

Regardless of any potential political changes, it is highly unlikely that Singapore’s economic growth and growth prospects will be thrown off-course. Depending on one’s view of which scenario is realised and how the said scenario will play out, one still has options with regards to how to invest in the local market.

OPTION 1: INVESTORS EXPECT THE STATUS QUO TO REMAIN

Investors who believe that the status-quo is unlikely to change should continue to invest in the local market as the long-term fundamentals, such as attractive earnings growth, which remains intact, is expected to propel the market further forward.

OPTION 2: INVESTORS EXPECT SHORT-TERM VOLATILITY

Investors who remain unsure of the short-term implications of how the various scenarios will affect the local market are not without a means of investment action. The best solution in times of uncertainty is definitely not one of being totally uninvested. Rather, the best course of action would be to execute a Dollar-Cost Averaging strategy in times of uncertainty, averaging out the buying cost and avoiding being caught in a short-term market high. While it might be understandable for investors to want to completely pull out of the market, given that this election has be touted as a water-shed moment in domestic politics, it is never wise to be fully uninvested.


Source/转贴/Extract/: www.fundsupermart.com
Publish date:06/05/11

Combating Inflation – Is Real Estate the Answer?

Our Comments:

- Moving into the third year of the global economic recovery, inflationary pressures appear to be resurfacing (especially in Asia and Emerging Markets). As opposed to gold or commodities, we suggest why funds invested in real estate may be a better bet in an inflationary environment

1. Property is a store of value
• Similar to commodities or natural resources, property is seen as a necessity, for both businesses (a need for place of function) and individuals (for a roof over their heads)
• While the value of property may fluctuate due to short term demand and supply factors, property generally does not lose all of its value due to the tangible nature of the asset class (backed by the underlying land rights), and is commonly considered as a store of value

2. Unlike commodities or gold, property generates cashflows
• In the case of investing in physical commodities, there is usually a cost of storage involved, which translates into a negative yield for the investor
• Unlike hard or soft commodities, property can generate cashflows in the form of rental income, which translates to the asset having a positive yield

3. Property value and rents are expected to rise with inflation
• Various studies have shown that physical property prices have kept pace with inflation over the long term
• Property prices and rents are a function of wages, which are expected to rise with inflation
• In addition, property investments are usually purchased with debt, which declines in value (in real terms) when inflation rises, benefiting the investor

How to gain exposure?

Given the large investment amount required, purchasing a physical property is usually not the most feasible approach for most investors. Investors who are interested in gaining access to the real estate sector may consider property funds on the platform, which invest in both real estate companies, as well as real estate investment trusts (REITs), which hold physical property.

The Henderson Hzn Gl Prop Eq-A2 USD provides globally diversified exposure to the property sector, while the Henderson Hzn Asia-Pac Prop Eq-A2 USD offers a more concentrated investment into both Asian property companies and REITs.

Investors who are looking for more targeted exposure to the Asian REIT sector may wish to consider the IOF-Asian Property Sec SGD Cl ASDQ, which primarily invests in REITs in the Asia Pacific region.



Source/转贴/Extract/: www.fundsupermart.com
Publish date:29/04/11

The EDGE Weekend Comment May 6

What will happen after polling day?


Singaporeans go to the polls this weekend. What will investors wake up to on Monday morning? And, how should they position their portfolios?

Leng Seng Choon, an analyst at DMG, says that there has been no clear historical trend on how the Straits Times Index performs over the month following polling day. That’s based on his analysis of the market’s performance during the past five general elections. However, there is a relationship between the STI’s performance and the performance of the incumbent People’s Action Party (PAP), according to Leng.

In 2001, the PAP won 75% of the votes, the highest over the five recent elections. This result was followed by an 11.9% rise in the STI over a one-month period. In 1991, the PAP won only 61% of the votes, the lowest over the five recent elections. This was followed by a 3.1% decline in the STI over a one-month period. “Correcting for external factors, we also analysed the relative performance of the STI against the MSCI Asia Pacific index. Again, we noted that the STI typically outperforms if the percentage of votes won by PAP is high,” Leng adds.

However, this most recent round of election campaigning has been the hottest in decades, some observers point out. Hence, much of the expected outcome might already be embedded in market prices. For instance, with the issue of affordable housing being one of the key themes of the recent campaign, property stocks have been sold down steadily over concerns of further policy action to cap gains in physical property prices in the months ahead.

Already, the ruling party has mooted the idea of raising the income ceiling for new build-to-order HDB flats to $10,000 after the elections. OCBC says this “suggests an unchanged hawkish stance on property prices after the GE. This runs contrary to the views of some that the government curbs so far are mostly pre-election moves and that the GE could be a positive price catalyst. We think the upside in private residential prices remains limited due to continued policy overhang in FY2011, coupled with expected increases in interest rates and physical supply in FY2012 and FY2013.”

Yet, the sell-off in property counters might now be providing a buying opportunity for investors with a longer-term view. Kim Eng says many developer stocks are currently trading at a sharper discount to their book value, or at a smaller premium than before. “Wing Tai Holdings, for example, is trading at an attractive 30% discount to its book value, even though a large portion of its landbank is in the high-end segment. Ho Bee Investment is similarly trading at a 30% discount to its book value, with its landbank mainly comprising high-end developments at Sentosa Cove,” the brokerage says in a report. Another property name trading at a 30% discount is Allgreen Properties.

Another segment of the market to watch next week is the land transport sector. Opposition parties have proposed the idea of nationalising the mass rapid transit system and the trunk bus lines. They also want the government to regulate the taxi fares. That could have implications for public transport companies ComfortDelGro Corp and SMRT Corp, according to Tham Mun Hon, an analyst at Daiwa. To be sure, likelihood of the opposition being able to put such ideas into action appears quite small now. Yet, pressure from them could shape future government policy on the land transport sector in the future, Tham says. “Hence, our preferred sectors over the near term are banks and telecoms due to what we see as their relatively less-demanding valuations. Our key stock picks are DBS Group Holdings, M1 and StarHub.”

Whatever the outcome of the elections, however, investors ought not to lose sight of the micro fundamentals of individual companies. Indeed, with a slew of results of large cap companies like SingTel, Wilmar International, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp, Genting Singapore and Singapore Airlines scheduled for release in the week ahead, the market might not dwell on the issue of politics for much longer. -- Joan Ng



Source/转贴/Extract/: www.theedgesingapore.com
Publish date:06/05/11

奥萨马伏诛或戮破商品泡沫 油价一度跌破100美元

2011/05/06 5:46:45 PM
●南洋商报


(纽约6日讯)美国头号公敌、卡伊达组织头子奥萨马遭狙毙后,国际油价闻讯连跌4天,周四跌破100美元,或将引爆全球商品价格泡沫破灭。

纽约油价周四盘中一度狂泻10%,收盘暴跌8.6%,每桶跌至99.80美元,跌破百美元大关,改写2009年4月20日来单日最大跌幅。

ICE布兰特原油期货跌10.39美元,至3月16日以来的最低结算价每桶110.80美元,跌幅8.6%。

其他大宗商品周四也大幅下跌。白银期货结算价跌8%,自上周五以来已累计下跌超过25%,铜期货今年以来首次跌破每磅4美元。

黄金期货则跌破1500美元,现货跌2.2%至每安士1480.90美元,交投最活跃的6月期货亦跌2.2%至1481.40美元,皆收于三周低点。而追踪24种原物料价格走势的标准普尔GSCI指数则重挫6.5%,报683.83点,创2009年1月7日以来最大跌幅。

不过,国际商品价格周五在亚洲盘中止跌回稳,收复部分周四跌幅。

纽约油价重上100美元关口,截至本地时间下午2时,每桶报100.14美元,升34美分。布兰特原油重回112美元价位。

金价现货上涨逾1%

金价现货上涨逾1%,为每安士1487.25美元。白银现货反弹逾2%,为35.45美元。

利比亚自2月16日爆发群众抗争后,纽约油价迄今累涨17%,但在美国公告天下,宣布剷除奥萨马这个心头大患后,油价旋即连跌4天,累计跌幅高达12%。

加上德国工业订单滑降,美国申领失业救济人数意外攀升,以及美国能源库存增加,市场投机性多头顿时退烧。

美国麻州Energy Security Analysis Inc.主管艾默森指出:“奥萨马伏法兹事体大,足以戮破商品泡沫。奥萨马归天淡化了阿拉伯之春(Arab Spring)引爆的油市多头行情,市场观察重点旋即转向需求面,而油市需求前景似乎不容乐观。”

Source/转贴/Extract/: 南洋商报
Publish date:06/05/11

Singapore Market Strategy: A trading opportunity post Polling Day (DMG)

Singapore Market Strategy: A trading opportunity post Polling Day

The Singapore General Elections’ (GEs) Polling Day will take place this Sat 7 May 2011. Based on the past five GEs, there is no clear historical trend as to how the STI will perform over a onemonth period post Polling Day. However, when we analyse the STI performance against the percentage of votes won by the People’s Action Party (PAP), we noted a discernible positive relationship.

Key observations:
• In the 2001 GE, the PAP won 75% of votes, the highest over the recent five GEs, and this was followed by a 11.9% rise in the STI for the one-month period post Polling Day.
• In the 1991 GE, the PAP only won 61% of votes (lowest over the past five GEs), and this led to a 3.1% STI decline over the following month.

Correcting for external factors, we also analysed the relative performance of the STI against the MSCI Asia Pacific index. Again, we noted that the STI typically outperforms if the percentage of votes won by PAP is high.

We believe the results for the coming GE will impact the STI over the next few weeks. There is therefore a trading opportunity. If one believes the PAP will win a higher percentage of votes, he should be buying into the current equity market weakness. Our top picks are ComfortDelgro, Keppel Corp, M1 and Noble. If one believes PAP will achieve a lower percentage of votes, then he should be reducing his equity holdings.

Source/转贴/Extract/: DMG & Partners Research
Publish date:06/05/11

Parkway Life REIT: Growth driven by Japanese properties (DMG)

Parkway Life REIT: Growth driven by Japanese properties
(NEUTRAL, S$1.72, TP S$1.83)

1Q11 results in-line; maintain NEUTRAL. ParkwayLife REIT (PREIT) achieved 1Q11 DPU of 2.36 S¢ (+14.0% YoY), representing 25% of our FY11 estimates. NPI rose 14.6% YoY to S$19.7m, largely due to revenue contribution from the 12 Japanese nursing homes acquired in mid-2010 and early 1Q11. At current levels, PREIT is trading at 5.4% (3.0% spread), a level it traded at during its heyday. While we continue to like PREIT for its defensiveness, it is no longer cheap compared with other stocks in the S-REIT space. Our TP was raised to S$1.83, as we roll forward our earnings estimates. Maintain NEUTRAL.

Balance sheet remains healthy with gearing at 34%, even after its purchase of a nursing home in Jan11. This leaves PREIT with ample debt headroom of S$128.4m to make further acquisitions. Japan, Australia and Malaysia will remain its target markets.

Business as usual post Japan earthquake. PREIT’s Japanese properties have not been structurally affected by the recent earthquake as its properties are located in regions away from the disaster zone, the nearest being at least 200km from the nuclear plant site.

Revenue growth underpinned by unique lease structures. Despite rising inflation and the uncertainties in the global economy, NPI is likely to continue growing. Rent from Singapore properties is supported by its CPI+1% growth formula, while its Japan properties have “upwards-only” rental revisions.


Source/转贴/Extract/: DMG & Partners Research
Publish date:06/05/11

Singapore ruling party faces tough election but should prevail

Singapore votes this weekend in its most hotly contested election ever as the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) faces challenges on the very policies that have brought spectacular growth and made the city-state a premier global financial hub.

There seems little doubt that the PAP will retain power in Saturday’s election, which has led financial markets to largely ignore the vote.

But the party’s huge 82-2 majority in parliament may be cut back as the opposition benefits from irritation over the spin-offs of the success story: sharper income disparities and an unwelcome influx of foreigners.

Opinion polls are not published in Singapore but an online poll conducted by Australian group UMR Research indicates that the PAP’s share of the vote may fall to 61% from about 67% in 2006.

“Sometimes it’s just a case of the lesser of two evils,” said Marcus Yong, a 24-year-old advertising executive, as the election campaign wound down on Thursday. "I think I will vote for the PAP.”

“The opposition’s aimless bashing is getting stale; they should be focusing on what they can offer rather than what the PAP did wrong,” he said.

Boosted by hundreds of thousands of voters born after the PAP took power in newly independent Singapore in 1965, the opposition has drawn large crowds and is contesting 82 of 87 seats in parliament, the highest number ever.

Its rallies have been remarkable for the strident criticism of the government.

Singapore has been accused by New York-based Human Rights Watch and other groups of restricting freedom of expression and using defamation lawsuits to cripple the opposition, but so far in this campaign there has been no evidence of a government clamp down.

Most of the opposition’s criticism has focused on bread and butter issues and a perception that the government was not listening.

Singapore’s economy has grown rapidly in recent years, including a 14.5% surge in GDP in 2010, but incomes of its citizens have not kept pace. According to the Department of Statistics, the bottom 10% of Singaporean households had an average monthly income of $1,400 last year, versus $23,684 for the top 10%.

Government policies are focused on attracting foreign wealth and making the city an easy place to live, and well as invest, in, which has drawn the ire of locals.

Foreigners now make up 36% of Singapore’s population of 5.1 million, up from around 20% of 4 million people a decade earlier. This, critics say, has led to competition for jobs and housing, the dilution of Singapore’s national identity, as well as crowded roads, buses and trains.

APOLOGY
Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has apologised for mistakes the government may have committed and said issues such as housing prices, the cost of living and income inequality will be closely monitored.

Such an apology from the powerful PAP would have been unheard of in previous years, but some cynics have called it a show of humility designed to win back votes.

“They (the opposition) have a very different vision of how to achieve the best for Singapore,” said Paul Tambyah, a speaker at an opposition rally on Thursday night.

“It is not a top down, “we know better” approach but it is all about you. Two weeks of campaigning have made the government finally listen to the people – make unprecedented apologies, take notice of the issues. Think what five years could do."

Despite the rhetoric, the election has drawn little interest in financial markets or among overseas investors because the PAP is unlikely to lose substantial support, analysts say.

“There’s no question about the outcome of this election,” said Hans Goetti, regional chief investment officer for Swiss fund manager Finaport.

“I think the question will be how many seats the opposition gets and how many votes overall. I think if the opposition wins a few seats, actually it would be a good thing for the overall debate in Singapore”.

“It would be nice to see a real debate going on policy issues, and I think the stronger opposition will help that.”




Source/转贴/Extract/: www.theedgesingapore.com
Publish date:06/05/11

US dollar in for strong rebound in 2H

KUALA LUMPUR: After a long declining trend, the US dollar could see a strong rebound in the second half of this year as quantitative easing (QE) measures are expected to be rolled back with the strengthening of the economy.

According to Standard Chartered Bank chief equity strategist Michael Preiss, the world’s largest economy is out of the woods and this could bring an end to the QE2, which would in turn lead to a reversal in the greenback’s downtrend.

“There is a lot of belief that the US is strong enough to stop QE2. If that is the case, then the dollar will appreciate again. “If our GDP estimates are correct, then most likely what we have seen as a move to the downside (for the dollar) has gone too far and this is why we feel that the dollar may rebound in the second half of the year,” Preiss said at a media briefing yesterday.

Standard Chartered has forecast 2.5% real GDP growth for the US for 2011 and 3.4% growth in 2012. The US economy was estimated to have grown 2.9% in 2010 compared with a contraction of 2.6% in 2009, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

“So potentially, the dollar could be at its lowish point. But again, that depends on rising interest rates,” Preiss added. Standard Chartered has forecast that the ringgit will trade at about 2.95 against the US dollar by year-end, which is already at current levels and may be revised depending on local interest rate conditions and expectations on the end of QE2.

Preiss noted that the biggest gains against the dollar have been made, believing that a rebound in the greenback is on the horizon, in the second half of this year. “The dollar has been so stretched that when it moves (upward), it could move more than people think,” he said.

Consequently, other major currencies such as the euro, Australian dollar and pound sterling could potentially weaken, he said. Additionally, with interest rates at record lows, Standard Chartered expects rate hikes in the US to start kicking in next year and this could potentially also strengthen the dollar. Meanwhile, central banks elsewhere have already started raising rates to combat rising inflation amid the economic recovery.

While this could dampen the equity market in the short term, Preiss said the rising cost of capital would lead to more quality investments. And while funds may be pulled back to the US, Preiss noted that a lot of the investments in emerging markets and Asia come from China, which would continue to boost growth in the region.

“Our view is that you need to be more selective going forward. Especially in Malaysia, it is increasingly what we call a stock-pickers market,” he said. Standard Chartered has a neutral view on Malaysian equities in the short term but is overweight in the long term with a target of 1,700 points for the FBM KLCI at year-end, driven mainly by economic recovery. Preiss prefers consumer stocks.

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.theedgemalaysia.com
Publish date:06/05/11

油價暴跌8%‧亞股收黑

Created 05/06/2011 - 19:15

(吉隆坡6日訊)油價重挫,暴跌超過9美元,幅度逾8%,紐約市場原油期貨價格更跌破100美元關卡,締造以美元計價的歷來第3大單日跌幅,導致隔夜美股重挫,亞洲股市難逃一跌,摩指亞太指數寫下3週來最大跌幅。

隔夜道瓊斯工商指數下跌139.10點至12584.17點。

亞洲股市幾乎全面收黑,一度跌近2%,但稍後因油金在亞洲盤回揚,油價回到100美元以上,股市也略收復失地。

馬股一度失守1510點

國行雙管齊下,雙雙調高隔夜政策利率和法定儲備金率,令市場瀰漫審慎情緒,加上油價暴跌,外圍股市全面收黑,促使馬股週五隨區域股市走跌,一度失守1510點關口。

富時綜合指數開盤即挫2.02點至1519.16點,隨後在賣壓日趨洶湧下,指數盤中更一度下滑13.54點或0.89%至1507.64點全日最低,所幸後獲趁低買盤入場,指數方能逐漸收復失地,最終報1515.50點,跌5.68點。

銀行類股走勢疲弱,馬來亞銀行(MAYBANK, 1155, 主板金融組)掛8令吉63仙,平盤。聯昌集團(CIMB, 1023, 主板金融組)挫1仙至8令吉15仙,大眾銀行(PBBANK, 1295, 主板金融組)報13令吉零8仙,跌2仙。

馬幣一度挫2.9975

受國行升息影響,匯率市場也疲憊不堪,馬幣尾隨區域貨幣頹勢,兌美元盤中一度貶至2.9975水平。

下午5時,馬幣兌美元報3.0030。馬幣今年為止已升值超過2.8%,表現落後新台幣、印尼盾、韓元和新元等區域貨幣。


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Source/转贴/Extract/: biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:06/05/11

首季成長可符預期‧通膨家債壓力未除‧國行料繼續升息

Created 05/06/2011 - 18:30

(吉隆坡6日訊)國家銀行週四突然升息,令一眾經濟學家大感吃驚,認為國行對經濟成長感到舒適,看好今年首季經濟成長有望帶來驚喜,但相信隨著通膨勢力抬頭,以及家庭債務壓力居高不下,未來隔夜政策利率和法定儲備金率仍有上調空間。

匯豐全球研究表示.國行仍有空間等候至7月,但最終國行對經濟處穩定成長模式感到非常保障,並作出在抗擊通膨時處於曲線前延重要決定。

“就算供應因素主導消費者價格,但相關措施是解決今日威脅的主動措施,主要是需求引導的壓力可能在下半年開始浮現。”

肯納格研究指出,國行強硬的立場突然快速急轉彎,可能源自對成本推升通膨因素的憂慮,更重要的是國行似乎對私人投資和消費帶動國內需求成長出現改善跡象充滿信心,顯示今年首季國內生產總值成長可能帶來驚喜。

將抹去逾70億游資

大馬研究表示,國行升息行動令人驚訝,相信首季經濟成長將與國行預期一致,增幅可能與去年第四季4.8%相符,甚至帶來更高成長驚喜。

“雖然國行升息或導致基本借貸率隨之調高,但SRR調漲1%將從市場抹去70億令吉游資,不會對經濟復甦步伐帶來影響,我們相信國行將允許馬幣持續走強削弱通膨對經濟成長壓力,維持馬幣兌美元可能突破2.93關口,並在今年收在2.97目標不變。”

全年經濟成長將達6%

達證券認為,國行收緊貨幣政策,可能促進馬幣進一步升值,預期馬幣兌美元年終有望上探2.80目標,主要是獲國行年杪升息至3.5%、健康外匯儲備、強勁經濟基礎、區域資金和金融控制措施,以及美聯儲局維持低利率水平不變等因素扶持。

“展望未來,經濟成長在強勁內需推動下將持續改善,私人消費將扮演成長重要推手角色,而私人投資也料隨經濟成長,和新成長領域擴充進一步增長,看好全年經濟成長將達到6%。”

MIDF研究表示,國行調升SRR1%至3%符合預期,相信是主動解決顯著囤積流動性可能導致金融失衡,以及提昇金融穩定性風險措施,料此次調幅將可從市場抹去76億令吉游資。現有水平仍較風暴前3.5%低,若流動性囤積速度續強勁,預計未來SRR仍有50至100個基點上調空間。

“我們預期通膨依舊溫和,國行可能維持短期負實際回酬局面,突升息25個基點舉動令人驚訝,實際回酬則將回歸‘零’水平,但隨高食品和油價推升通膨,實際回酬下月將再度跌入負面疆域。”

MIDF研究相信國行將在7月再度升息,但隨後將稍作喘息,並在2012年首季再次升息25個基點,最終將全年利率維持在3.50%不變。

“但隨著馬幣升值將有利抑制通膨壓力,並為決策者提供展延津貼重組喘息空間,以免將高成本推升通膨轉嫁消費者,預見任何合理化計劃僅可能在下半年推行,主要是全球局勢將更為清晰。”

聯昌研究認為,貨幣政策委員會報告指出,未來貨幣動向將以數據為重,國行將在成長風險和通膨前景取得平衡,並維持整體貨幣政策適度寬鬆,透過合理利率來為成長護航,同時監督通膨壓力。

“有鑑於此,我們預期國行將在第三季再度升息25個基點,令全年利率升至3.25%,但不排除國行在7月提高SRR1%至4%可能性。”

國行料對個人貸款開刀

馬銀行研究預見國行可能在7和9月兩次升息,儘早調高利率至風暴前3.50%,同時預計國行在祭出第三間房屋貸款上限和信用卡申請措施來解決居高不下家庭債務後,個人貸款可能成為下一目標。

“我們相信此次涉及層面可能不只有商業銀行,發展金融機構、合法借貸公司等非商業銀行機構也將受到監督。”




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Source/转贴/Extract/: biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:06/05/11

Raffles Edu's Q3 profit plunges 74%

Business Times - 06 May 2011


Raffles Edu's Q3 profit plunges 74%

By LYNETTE KHOO

RAFFLES Education said yesterday its net profit for the third quarter ended March 31 slumped 74 per cent from a year ago to $2.36 million.

The private education group attributed the poor showing to weaker revenue and an absence of fair-value gains on investment properties.

Its revenue for the quarter fell 15 per cent year on year to $37.85 million due to lower enrolments as the number of students in China taking the National Higher Education Entrance Examination declined.

No fair-value gain on investment properties was reported this time around, while the group had posted $5.47 million of fair-value gains in the fiscal third quarter last year when it revalued its investment properties in its unit Oriental University City (OUC).

For the first nine months of this fiscal year, Raffles Education also reported a 54 per cent fall in net profit to $13.84 million.

Revenue for the nine months ended March 31 also fell 15 per cent year on year to $121.41 million due to lower student enrolment and a stronger Singapore dollar.

'The results reflect the effects of the strong Singapore dollar on renminbi-denominated revenue,' said the group's chairman and CEO, Chew Hua Seng.

'Importantly, we have seen improvements in student enrolment numbers from our new colleges as they continue to penetrate emerging markets,' he added.

The group's cash position was pared down to $70.7 million as at March 31, 2011 from $141 million as at March 31, 2010 on waning operating profits and higher working capital.

Raffles Education operates 38 colleges in 34 cities across 14 countries in Asia-Pacific, including Australia, Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, India, Singapore and Vietnam. It also owns OUC in Langfang in China's Hebei province, which provides education services to nine colleges on the campus.

Raffles Education said it plans to continue to grow its business by setting up more colleges in the region, developing proprietary courseware, creating value at OUC, as well as through 'education asset enhancement' and strategic acquisitions.

The five colleges that the group added in fiscal 2009 and the eight new colleges set up in fiscal 2010 are expected to contribute positively from FY 2012 and FY 2013 respectively, it added.

Shares of Raffles Education rose 1.54 per cent yesterday to 66 cents.


Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:06/05/11

PLife Reit's distributable income up 14.4% in Q1

Business Times - 06 May 2011


PLife Reit's distributable income up 14.4% in Q1

By NISHA RAMCHANDANI

PARKWAY Life Reit (PLife Reit) has reported a 14.4 per cent rise year on year in distributable income to $14.3 million for the first quarter ended March 31, 2011.

Gross revenue for 1Q11 came in at $21.5 million, up 15.2 per cent, on the back of revenue contributions from new nursing homes in Japan acquired over the last 12 months as well as higher rent from its Singapore properties.

Distribution per unit (DPU) for the quarter is 2.36 cents per unit, versus 2.07 cents in 1Q10, while annualised DPU is 9.44 cents per unit for 1Q11 compared to 8.28 cents for 1Q10.

Earnings per unit for the quarter were 2.45 cents, up from 2.01 cents previously.

During the quarter, property expenses for 1Q11 rose 22.8 per cent to $1.77 million, in line with the bigger portfolio, while net property income was 14.6 per cent higher at $19.72 million.

Meanwhile, finance costs fell by 11.1 per cent to $2.27 million despite the enlarged portfolio, mainly due to interest cost savings from refinancing and re-pricing exercises, though this was offset by higher financing costs incurred to finance the Japan properties acquired in the middle of last year and January this year.

Gearing stands at 34.3 per cent.

In an update on its Japan properties, business continues as usual at all its 30 Japan properties with none of them located within the evacuation zone of the Fukushima nuclear plants, PLife Reit said.

It owns 33 properties in the Asia Pacific, including three hospitals in Singapore and 30 healthcare and healthcare-related assets in Japan. Its portfolio size stood at $1.3 billion as at March 31, 2011.

Yong Yean Chau, chief executive officer of Reit manager Parkway Trust Management, said: 'The regional healthcare industry remains robust due to the persistent rise in demand for better quality private healthcare, driven in no small part by growing affluence, fast-ageing populations and increasing social acceptance of nursing homes. PLife Reit's enlarged portfolio of healthcare assets places us in a good position to capture the demand of the resilient and growing healthcare industry in the Asia Pacific.'

Shares in PLife Reit closed at $1.72 yesterday, unchanged.



Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:06/05/11

Cost control, margin growth raise Hyflux net

Business Times - 06 May 2011


Cost control, margin growth raise Hyflux net

Q1 profit up 15% to $7.4m despite 14% fall in revenue

By MINDY TAN

MAINBOARD-LISTED Hyflux Ltd's first-quarter net profit rose 15 per cent to $7.4 million, from $6.4 million a year ago. This was achieved despite a 14 per cent drop in revenue to $86.8 million. The higher net profit was attributed to the group's cost management strategies and growth in gross margin.

The group registered improvement in gross margin to 51 per cent from 41 per cent in the same period in FY2010.

The fall in revenue was largely attributed to projects in the Middle East and North African markets (MENA) approaching the final stages of the engineering, procurement, and construction works.

The MENA markets contributed some 39 per cent of total revenue, down from 78 per cent in the first quarter of FY2010. China and Singapore made up the remaining 61 per cent.

Group president and chief executive Olivia Lum said: 'The better performance of the Chinese market came through as we re-aligned our focus to take advantage of the increased opportunities in the Chinese water sector and the higher demand for water by industrial parks around China.'

Moving forward, the group expects Singapore and China projects to drive performance. A total of $850 million worth of projects in these two countries were secured in the first quarter.

In April, Hyflux, through its wholly owned subsidiary, Tuaspring Pte Ltd, sealed a 25-year Water Purchase Agreement with PUB, Singapore's national water agency, to supply desalinated water from a seawater reverse osmosis desalination plant which Hyflux will be developing and operating upon its completion in 2013.

In China, the group intends to build on the momentum of its order book growth in the first quarter. This will be supported by the rising prospects in China's water sector where investments in water infrastructure projects are estimated to double from US$30 billion in 2010 to US$60 billion from 2011.

The period saw earnings per share rising 7.5 per cent to 0.86 cents.

The group's cash position decreased to $165.4 million as at March 31, 2011 from $222.3 million as at Dec 31, 2010. Net cash of $54.3 million was used in the group's operating activities. Cash used in investing activities for the period was largely for capital expenditure of property, plant and equipment and intangible assets to support expansion.

Apart from China, India and Asean markets, Hyflux intends to explore opportunities globally including Australia and Latin America where there is an uptrend in demand for membrane-based technology solutions.

No dividend was declared for the period. Hyflux closed trading yesterday down 6 cents at $1.98.



Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:06/05/11

Spice i2i's Affinity acquisition held up over valuation issue

Business Times - 06 May 2011


Spice i2i's Affinity acquisition held up over valuation issue

By LYNN KAN

SPICE i2i says that the hold-up in its acquisition of Indonesia's Affinity Group has been over the latter's apparent overstated valuations of its inventories and assets.

On May 2, Spice i2i said that the US$175 million acquisition's completion would be pushed to May 16 from April 30, as provided for in the contractual agreement if anything came up during due diligence. Chairman of Spice i2i Bhupendra Kumar Modi told BT that during the due diligence process, the stated US$32.6 million in assets (as at Dec 31, 2010) on Affinity's books appeared to be inflated by about US$10 million.

Dr Modi is in town to speak with the Indonesian company about the issue.

'We will sit down and reconcile the issue. Hopefully, in the next week, we'll resolve it. The other party has to answer these questions from our board, and we have to understand the assets and liabilities of the (other) company,' said Dr Modi. 'But I don't think it's a huge issue - it's a difference of US$10 million compared to the US$175 million deal.'

Spice i2i - which had embarked on acquiring a 'circle of champions' last year - might soon grow even larger. This time, the growth might come from within the family.

Dr Modi had, a few days ago, told the Indian media that he might merge Singapore-listed Spice i2i and Spice Mobility that is on the Bombay Stock Exchange.

The suggestion to do so came from the most recent meeting with shareholders, who mooted the idea since both companies share a common supply chain and a common brand.

He has not decided which bourse the possible merged entity will be hosted on.

He will meet SGX head Magnus Bocker tomorrow and representatives from the Bombay Stock Exchange next week before deciding.

The eventual locale for this merger also affects Dr Modi's decision on where to list Spice i2i's parent company, Spice Global. He previously indicated that he was interested in floating it in London or in Singapore.

'Spice Global is a shareholder of both companies, so depending on what happens to these two, we'll take our decision on that,' he said. 'But we're more inclined towards Singapore because it's our innovation centre base.'

Dr Modi also told the Indian media that Spice Mobility will invest 10 billion rupees (S$275.5 million) and hire 300 more people to expand and strengthen its presence in India.

Spice i2i, too, will invest US$40 million in Singapore this year.

It will also look for ways to sell its 'S' brand mobile devices in Singapore either by partnering the three local telcos or by setting up or acquiring retail chains.

Spice i2i closed unchanged at 5.5 cents yesterday.


Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:06/05/11

Iskandar bets big on designer discount outlet

Business Times - 06 May 2011


Iskandar bets big on designer discount outlet

By PAULINE NG
IN KUALA LUMPUR

THE Iskandar Regional Development Authority is looking to the opening of the much-awaited Johor Premium Outlet (JPO) with a mixture of anticipation and trepidation.

There is anticipation because the international designer discount outlet is expected to give fledgling Iskandar Malaysia a timely boost given the projection of four million visitors annually. And trepidation because the surge in numbers will test its preparedness, said chief executive Ismail Ibrahim.

The Premium Outlet will be the first of its kind in South-east Asia and the prospect of 330,000 sq ft of designer fashion and accessories at discounted prices has already stirred the imagination of shopping-mad Malaysians, Singaporeans and others in the region.

The RM149 million (S$61.5 million) mall will join the existing 52 outlets in the United States, Mexico, Japan and South Korea.

The first phase, involving 175,000 sq ft of upscale shopping at Kulaijaya, will be launched in the second half of the year. It marks the foray into Malaysia of New York Stock Exchange listed Simon Property Group whose subsidiary Premium Outlets is a 50:50 partner in the JPO with Genting Plantations.

The Genting group which owns Resorts World Sentosa and Resorts World Genting in Pahang has cannily located JPO on 17ha that is at the intersection of the North-South Expressway and the Second Link, making it easily accessible from Johor and Singapore once other planned interchanges are completed such as the RM1.1 billion six-lane Coastal Highway which is scheduled to open at the end of the year.

Other on-going infrastructure includes the 7km Eastern Dispersal Link which will be ready in March 2012, and the 77 km Senai-Desaru highway.

The good news for users is they will be toll-free.

The infrastructure is expected to help Iskandar reach a tipping point next year when other catalyst projects such as the Newcastle Medical School (expected to be completed this year) and Legoland are completed.

At a media briefing in Iskandar, KGV-Lambert Smith Hampton (Johor) executive director Samuel Tan said Kuala Lumpur developers are beating a hasty path to Iskandar because its upside now is so much greater, with recent property transactions registering noticeable increases in value. 'People are land-banking and every day we get calls to help them find land.'

'Because the new southern link will make travel seamless, if you know anyone who wants to sell land near Pasir Gudang, we have ready buyers.'

Land in Danga Bay sold for about RM220 psf about four years ago but has now risen to RM400-plus psf, he said. And depending on where residential properties are sited, some have doubled in value since 2005. Most of Johor's failed projects from the 1990s have also been taken over by private companies and rehabilitated.

The building boom notwithstanding, Mr Ismail cautioned against an overhang and has advised developers to identify the anchor economic activity that will drive their townships rather than merely jumping on the bandwagon.

However, he observed there are more owner-occupier buyers now compared to previously, owing to expectations of greater integration with Singapore once a planned rapid transport system (RTS) link is established between the city state and Johor Baru.

Malaysia's RTS is expected to link with Singapore's MRT but details remain sketchy as both governments continue to negotiate on numerous issues including a planned wellness township to be built jointly by Khazanah Nasional and Temasek Holdings.

Johor chief minister Ghani Othman indicated the RTS is likely to connect to an interchange station at Kempas since JB central lacks the requisite space.

Those delays notwithstanding, he conceded Iskandar's tax sweeteners also need reworking because they have had little impact, many perceiving them to be too restrictive. As a result, only a dozen companies and three individuals have applied for the incentives.


Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:06/05/11

Hyflux Tuas II and Chinese municipals to drive earnings (CIMB)

Hyflux Ltd
OUTPERFORM Maintained
S$1.98 Target: S$2.76
Tuas II and Chinese municipals to drive earnings
• In line; maintain Outperform. 1Q11 core net profit was in line with consensus and our expectations. Although at only 8% of our FY11 numbers, revenue and earnings are typically low in 1Q, with backend-loaded contributions in 2H. In fact, this was the highest 1Q profit the group ever recorded. We are keeping our estimates and target price of S$2.76, still based on sum-of-the-parts valuation. With prospects of further margin improvements and order-book momentum accelerating (particularly in China and O&M segment), we remain upbeat. We anticipate re-rating catalysts from fresh order wins and opportunities arising from its JV platform in China.

• Group revenue was broad-based, with China accounting for 40% of the total, driven by higher sales in both the municipal and industrial sectors. Singapore provided 21% of the topline, mainly from current projects. MENA’s share of revenue dropped to 39% (from 78% in 1Q10), hardly a surprise, as large-scale projects have approached the final stages of EPC work.

• Margins improved but one-off. With the decline of revenue, raw-material and WIP costs fell 27% yoy in 1Q11 while staff costs retreated 10% yoy. These came about as a result of better cost management, and as the Magtaa desalination plant nears completion. All in all, 1Q11 gross margins were lifted to 51% (41% in 1Q10). However, staff costs are expected to rise when work on the Tuas II desalination plant commences. Normalised margins should be 40-50%.

• Tuas II the driver, co-driven by Chinese municipals. Thanks to its flexibility, the group managed to secure S$850m worth of projects (both China and Singapore) in 1Q11, with the biggest (S$750m) being the Tuas II desalination plant. It is looking at how to mobilise more resources to China to boost its current order book of S$2.25bn (S$1.25bn EPC, S$959m O&M). The biggest tailwind for HYF in China remains the country’s relentless efforts to tackle its water-security issues.

Source/转贴/Extract/: CIMB Research
Publish date:06/05/11
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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