Saturday, April 30, 2011

國民大會:油金雙漲台股紅

國民大會:油金雙漲台股紅(1/4) 20110427

國民大會:油金雙漲台股紅(2/4) 20110427

國民大會:油金雙漲台股紅(3/4) 20110427

國民大會:油金雙漲台股紅(4/4) 20110427

Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:27/04/11

金錢爆(散戶多單創新高Part4 子曰:鈔票不印則退!?)

2011-0428-57金錢爆(散戶多單創新高Part4 子曰:鈔票不印則退!?)












Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:28/04/11

Weekend Comment Apr 29: DBS surprises on the upside

“I COULDN’T HAVE asked for a better set of results,” Piyush Gupta, CEO of DBS Group Holdings, tells journalists at the 1Q11 results’ media briefing on April 29, “And before anyone asks, we are not in discussion for any inorganic deal in Indonesia or anywhere else,” he reiterates. For the January-March period, DBS posted a record net profit of $807 million against $532 million a year earlier, representing a 52% y-o-y rise.

Net profit came in significantly above the average of analysts’ expectations of $685 million, beating even the high end forecast of $720 million. Gupta, who took over in November 2009, says the results reflect the execution of his nine-point strategy. Capital ratios remained strong. Tier-1 CAR was 14.2% (4Q: 15.1%) and core Tier-1, 11.5% (4Q: 11.8%). 1Q11 ROE rose to 12.1% from 10.2% in 4Q10. Cost-to-income ratio was maintained at 40%.

Additionally, DBS Hong Kong appears to have turned the corner, reporting a net profit of $190 million, up 6% y-o-y and 32% q-o-q, despite the HKD weakening by 3% against the SGD.

However, Gupta cautions against extrapolating the $807 million net profit figure for the remaining three quarters this year. He warns of headwinds going forward, including debt problems in the European Union, slower than expected growth in the US, inflationary pressures in Asia, and Central Banks tightening across Asia. “The bigger risk is the cooling off, and a hard landing in China will have serious implications,” he says. “There is no clarity on any of these yet.” Against this background, Gupta expects loan growth for this year to be in the low double-digits, driven by demand in the region.

In 1Q, loans grew 4% during the quarter to $157.5 billion, led by corporate borrowing in Singapore, Hong Kong, India and China. Because of the challenging low SIBOR, net interest income rose a mere 1% q-o-q to $1.12 billion. Gupta doesn’t expect an uptick in interest rates till the end of the year as the Federal Reserve has indicated that interest rates are unlikely to rise in view of tepid economic growth. However, he reckons that net interest margins (NIMs), which rose 1bp q-o-q to 1.8% in 1Q, could have seen their lows.

One of the reasons for maintaining NIMs this year is diversifying geographic spread, with the bank seeing loan growth in India and China, Gupta says. “NIM contribution from India and China are rising and this has made an impact on the group level.”

Harsh Modi, analyst at JP Morgan, thinks that the 1bp rise in NIMs is significant. “We believe this marks an inflection point and is a change in trend for DBS margins. This trend change will be first time in a decade that DBS NIMs move up without rates rise,” Modi writes in a report dated Apr 29. Also, he points out that DBS strategy of “asset duration lengthening” and a move up on LDR (loan to deposit ratio) is now showing up in NIMs. “The drag of back-book re-pricing has been offset by higher duration. This was the key data-point investors were looking for in our view, and the stock should rally from here,” Modi states.

However, the real driver for net profit gains appears to be the 26% q-o-q gain in non-interest income. Fee income rose 16% q-o-q to $416 million. IPOs during the quarter, including the mega US$5.5 billion ($6.7 billion) Hutchison Port Holdings Trust listing, and the Road King Infrastructure’s RMB1.3 billion ($246 million) bond issue boosted investment banking. In Hong Kong, DBS garnered RMB18 billion in deposits, and was joint bookrunner for Singamas’ RMB1.4 billion bond issue.

“Fee income surprised positively, though this may be inflated by strong investment banking fees especially with DBS’s involvement in the Hutchison Port Trust IPO in 1Q11,” notes Goldman Sachs in an update on Apr 29. “Fee income growth was pretty broad based, with trade/remittances/loans, and wealth management fees growing, reflecting DBS’s strategic initiatives to expand these businesses. A larger surprise was treasury income, which contrary to the Street’s doubts for DBS to sustain its high treasury gains, as seen in 1Q10, did very well, reflecting DBS’s push on treasury cross-sell,” the Goldman report states.

“Growth in the loan book is on the institutional side,” Gupta points out. Looking forward, he expects loan growth to be led by the corporate side and in the region. But DBS is unlikely to experience much mortgage growth in Singapore and Hong Kong, he adds. “Mortgage demand around the region in slowing off as every Central Bank tries to slow down the property market,” he says. Last year, loan growth came from corporates refinancing. This year, regional corporates are borrowing for investment, Gupta says. In terms of IPOs, DBS has a healthy pipeline but nothing as big as the Hutchison Port deal. “We have a small role in Glencore’s IPO of US$11-12 billion in a co-lead role,” he says.

CIMB is forecasting a net profit of $2.75 billion for DBS this year, up 68% y-o-y, and a price target of $17.00 which represents a price to book of 1.4 times the book value of $11.61. The stock last traded at $14.98.



Source/转贴/Extract/: www.theedgesingapore.com
Publish date:30/04/11

Reit or business trust?

Business Times - 30 Apr 2011

SMART MONEY
Reit or business trust?

Key differences relate to ownership, management and governance. By Genevieve Cua

WITH interest rates still scraping rock bottom, you are likely to be on the lookout for investments that offer yield. Within this segment, real estate investment trusts (Reits) and business trusts are promising investment options.



Both give you access to yield-bearing assets such as properties or infrastructure that as a retail investor, you are unlikely to be able to invest in directly. Most of a trust's underlying assets require substantial amounts of capital to acquire as well as expertise to manage.

By now, Reits are a fairly mature market here, boasting a market capitalisation of roughly US$30 billion as at end-December. There are also a number of business trusts to consider, offering exposure to assets such as utilities, shipping and ports.

The concept of Reits and business trusts may seem broadly similar. An outstanding feature of such trusts is their ability to earn or generate a stable income or cash flow, which is distributed regularly to unitholders in the form of dividends.

Yet, there are key differences in their respective structures, with implications for ownership, management and governance.



A Reit is a collective investment scheme investing in real estate, which could span commercial, industrial, retail or hospitality. It is managed by a licensed manager who is paid an annual management fee.

The underlying assets of a Reit are held by a trustee on unitholders' behalf. With Reits, there is a separation of roles between the trustee and the manager.

In contrast, a business trust is a hybrid structure combining elements of a company and a trust. It runs a business enterprise, investing in sectors and assets with a stable income profile such as utilities and infrastructure. But unlike a company, it is not a separate legal entity.

Instead, it is created by a trust deed under which the trustee has legal ownership of the trust assets, and manages the assets for unitholders' benefit. It is managed by a single entity - the trustee-manager.

The accompanying graphic illustrates some key aspects of three structures - companies, business trusts and Reits.

Here are some issues relating to corporate governance that are worth noting.


Removal of manager or trustee-manager: The trustee-manager of a business trust can be removed only if 75 per cent of unitholders vote against him. A Reit requires a simple majority of votes to remove a manager.

Independence of directors: There are also rules in place to guard against conflict of interest. For business trusts, the majority of its board must be independent of management and business relationships with the trustee-manager. In addition, at least one-third must be independent of management and business relationships with the trustee-manager, and from every substantial shareholder of the trustee-manager.

Wong Partnership deputy head (equity capital markets) Long Chee Shan says that the composition of the board of directors of a business trust is subject to stricter rules relating to the independence of its directors.



'For business trusts, the law requires the majority of its board members to be independent. This is unlike managers of Reits, or the boards of listed companies, where the Code of Corporate Governance requires that only one-third of the directors be independent.'

He also notes the higher threshold for removal of a trustee-manager compared to that for a Reit manager. '. . . unlike a Reit which is a passive investment holding vehicle that is externally managed, the trustee-manager of a business trust manages its business and operations. If the threshold is set too low, it may be difficult for the trustee-manager to plan and manage the business of the trust in the interests of unitholders.'


Audit committees: Reits and business trusts are required to have an audit committee, which oversees financial reporting and disclosures.

In both structures, sale and purchase transactions with interested parties are subject to safeguards: Any transaction representing 5 per cent or more of an entity's net asset value must be approved by independent unitholders.

Reits are also required under the Code of Collective Investment Schemes to get two independent valuations. Assets cannot be acquired from the interested party at a price above the higher of the two valuations, nor be sold at a price below the lower of the two valuations.

There are, of course, risks attached to investments in Reits and business trusts, as with any other investment. Here are some to consider:


Market risk: As listed vehicles, Reits and business trusts are subject to factors that may now and again cause the stock market to rise or fall. These include fund flows, investor sentiment and risk appetite. While the trusts are generally stable vehicles, there is volatility in their prices.

Liquidity risk: The 2008 crisis eloquently showed that even stable vehicles such as Reits could suddenly become illiquid along with the general market. Compared to unit trusts, Reits and business trusts are subject to greater liquidity risk. Unit trust investors can buy and sell units through banks, and fund managers are bound to redeem units except in certain extreme conditions. For Reits and business trusts, the ease of buying and selling units will depend on the demand/supply situation on the exchange.

Leverage: Business trusts and Reits are allowed to take on borrowings to buy assets. Reits are subject to a gearing limit of 35 per cent. This can be raised to 60 per cent if the Reit obtains, discloses and maintains a credit rating from rating agencies. There is no explicit cap on borrowings for business trusts but the trusts themselves may set their own limits.

Wong Partnership's Mr Long says that the absence of a similar cap on gearing for business trusts is not necessarily a negative. 'The absence of similar restrictions . . . allows (business trusts) more flexibility in the borrowing of funds to grow its business in a low interest rate environment. In such an environment, a business trust may take advantage of opportunities to purchase higher yielding assets by gearing up more readily.' The presence of leverage gives rise to related risks - that of refinancing the borrowings as they come due, in addition to the spectre of breaching loan covenants due to negative equity. The refinancing risk was stark during the 2008 financial crisis when credit dried up as banks turned risk averse. The dearth of financing drove a number of Reits to seek funding by rights issues. This can create a strain on unitholders who may not be able to cough up the cash to take up the issue.

On loan covenants, shipping trust Rickmers Maritime had to negotiate value-to-loan coverage requirements and a loan maturity extension to relieve pressure on its balance sheet. Such agreements come at a higher cost of debt and may also entail a cap on distributions per unit.

Between 2008 and 2009, Moody's assigned a negative outlook to Singapore Reits due to concerns over refinancing, asset devaluation and a weak operating environment. This has since been upgraded to a stable outlook. Earlier this year, Moody's said that it expected continued growth in Singapore Reits in an environment of low interest rates, supportive capital markets and improved economic sentiment.


Business risks: Each Reit or business trust will be exposed to specific sectors that may be subject to their own business cycles. While infrastructure and utilities are typically seen as resilient and defensive assets, the same may not be true for industrial properties, for instance. You will need to be cognisant of business and economic conditions which have a bearing on lease renewals and occupancy rates.

There are also unpredictable risks that arise from calamities. The recent Japan earthquake is a case in point. Japanese Reit Saizen was heavily exposed to the worst hit Sendai area, and this dragged down its unit price.


Income risk: Distributions by listed trusts are typically not guaranteed, even though a newly listed trust may undertake to make distributions for a certain period. When business is poor, a trust may reduce or not pay a dividend at all. Saizen Reit, for example, had suspended dividend payments in 2009. It had also proposed that it issue scrip instead of cash as dividends, but this was subsequently abandoned.

Investment/financial risk: Risk could arise from a trust's use of financial derivatives. Under the Code on Collective Investment Schemes, Reits may use derivatives to hedge existing portfolio positions or for efficient portfolio management. Derivatives cannot be used to gear up the portfolio.

Business trusts are not subject to such a restriction. But the trusts use derivatives typically for hedging, and the hedging policy is reviewed and approved by the board of the trustee-manager.

gen@sph.com.sg



Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:30/04/11

Key points in choosing a trust to invest in

Business Times - 30 Apr 2011

SMART MONEY
Key points in choosing a trust to invest in

By GENEVIEVE CUA

REITS (real estate investment trusts) and business trusts may seem to be attractive options, particularly as upwardly trending inflation puts savers in an awkward and worrisome quandary of negative real interest rates.

The attractiveness of such trusts lie in their ability to pay a regular and stable dividend. This is a big plus in a portfolio. Research into long-term returns shows that reinvested dividends comprise the bulk of returns, compared to capital appreciation.

But before you take the plunge, you should, as always, examine the listed trusts in the context of your entire portfolio. If you are underinvested in equities, an allocation into such income-bearing instruments may be a prudent way to step up your risk exposure, and yet enhance your portfolio yield. If you are already adequately or even overexposed to equities, you may want to consider trimming some of your risk assets in favour of a more stable dividend-yielding instrument.

As Reits and business trusts offer exposure to a broad range of industries and types of assets, you should do your homework on the ones you may be keen on. Here are some key points to consider:


Your risk tolerance and investment horizon: Reits and business trusts are similar to bonds in that they generate an income stream, but they will be more volatile than bonds, and more highly correlated with stocks. You will also need to be prepared to hold them for a longer period to benefit from dividend payments.

Examine the underlying assets: Each Reit or business trust will offer exposure to a specific sector. Peruse the trust's website for relevant documents - their track record of dividends; statements on their operating environment; gearing levels and debt maturity profile.

How concentrated are the trust's assets? The assets, for instance, may depend heavily on tenants from a specific sector, which would make the trust vulnerable to a downturn in that sector. It would be prudent if the trust's assets are sufficiently diversified in terms of tenant mix, geography and industry exposure.

If it is a foreign Reit or business trust, you will need to be aware of the operating environment as well in the country, including regulatory or political risks. The macroeconomic environment will also impact their businesses. Ascertain, too, the trust's growth potential: is it able to make yield-accretive investments?


Be aware of factors relating to the trust's structure: One is the sponsor, if the trust has one. What is the sponsor's financial strength? Has the sponsor supported the trust on previous occasions when the trust needed help in financing, for instance? This may give an indication of the sponsor's willingness and ability to help should there be another financial crisis. In the recent crisis, a number of Reits resorted to raising capital through a rights issue. This may pose a financial strain on your resources.

The management of the trust is yet another important aspect. Ascertain the quality of management and its track record. How is management remunerated? Some trusts provide for remuneration by units to align the manager's interests with unitholders'.


Fees: Reits and business trusts levy a number of fees, including an annual management fee; performance fee; property management, acquisition and divestment fees. Might the fees incentivise managers to take on more debt? On performance fees, in particular, there is no uniform formula for the calculation, and the benchmark used to measure outperformance may also not be transparent. The prospectus will typically have an illustration of how the performance fee is charged.

Dividend payments: How frequently are dividends paid? There may be circumstances when dividends may be cut or suspended, such as when the trust is loss-making or when rental income has fallen.

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:30/04/11

Likely scenariosof market reaction to election outcome

Business Times - 30 Apr 2011

SHOW ME THE MONEY
Likely scenariosof market reaction to election outcome

Depending on results, this general election could have more pronounced impact on stock market: Nomura

By TEH HOOI LING
SENIOR CORRESPONDENT

UNLIKE in Malaysia where certain stocks typically make big gains in the run-up to general election, the polls in Singapore have not been a major market-moving event.

'General elections in Singapore have tended to have little impact on the stock market in the past,' wrote Nomura Equity Research in its Singapore Strategy piece published yesterday. 'On one occasion, the STI did outperform post the 2001 elections, rallying about 20 per cent in one month and outperforming the MSCI Asia Ex Japan Index,' it noted.

In that election, the People's Action Party (PAP) garnered 75 per cent of the popular vote. That's one of its best performances since independence. Otherwise, the stock market's reaction in other episodes has been relatively muted.

In 2006, when the PAP saw a decline in the popular vote to 66.6 per cent, the market pulled back by 9 per cent over a four-week period versus the MSCI Singapore Free Index's decline of 10 per cent.

In the past five elections, the percentage of popular votes garnered by the PAP ranged from a low of 61 per cent in 1991, to a high of 75 per cent in 2001. Based on the limited data set, it would seem that the market did get the jitters when the PAP lost more of the popular votes, and the market tended to cheer when it received a strong mandate.

It's a logical market reaction. After all, the PAP has a proven track record of managing the country efficiently and competently. Its policies have been pro-market, and pro-business. The market knows what it is getting from the PAP government. It abhors uncertainty.

And the fact that elections had tended to be almost non-event in the Singapore stock market stemmed from the fact that the PAP has been able to consistently garner more than 60 per cent of the popular vote.

Nomura noted that the 2011 general election may turn out to be watershed election. For the first time, the opposition parties will contest 82 out of the 87 seats, the largest number of seats contested ever. In addition, they are also fielding more credible candidates. Among the young voters, there appears to be concern about a number of issues, including cost of living, housing prices and competition from foreigners. The fact that the economy is doing well, ironically, may work to the disadvantage of the PAP. Voters may be more willing to take more risks as a result, said Nomura.

So depending on the results, this year's general election could have more pronounced impact on the stock market.

According to Nomura, the market is expecting the ruling PAP to maintain its dominance in Parliament but with a reduced popular vote and perhaps a loss of a few more seats in Parliament.

AmFraser earlier this week came up with a few possible scenarios. The 'Unthinkable' scenario is one in which PAP loses two-thirds or even more than a quarter of seats (20 or higher) and share of votes falls to below 55 per cent. Some key ministers such as finance, defence, home affairs lose their seats.

'Market reaction could be very bearish as foreign investors are likely to sell first to reassess the situation. The Straits Times Index plunges 10 to 15 per cent to around 2,750-2,900 and may take a long time to recover,' it said.

The 'Very Unlikely' scenario is where share of votes fall to 55-57 per cent, and the PAP loses more than two to three group representation constituencies (GRCs) and the Opposition wins up to 20-25 seats.

'Market reaction will also be negative, down perhaps by up to 100-150 points to 3,000-3,050 points. The market, however, should recover faster than the first scenario.'

The 'Possible' scenario is where the PAP loses one to two GRCs and vote share slips to between 58 per cent and 61 per cent, with the opposition representation rising to 10-15 seats.

'No adverse market reaction even if loss of two to three ministers so long as heavyweight ministers retain their seats.

'The STI should continue to move up with pullbacks along the way to test its January 3,280 year's high with strong support at 3,110-3,130 and 3,150-3,170.'

The 'Unlikely' scenario is one where the PAP has a clean sweep of all the seats, or loses only one to three single seats, and it manages to retain 63 to 65 per cent of the popular vote. This outcome would be neutral on the stock market.

'The STI has been moving from the old strong support base at 3,110-30 in Oct-Dec last year to around 3,170 now, and this support should hold in the run-up to Polling Day on May 7 with any pullback towards 3,110-30 offering good trading chances.

'If the market cannot hold at 3,110-30, it could mean investors may be expecting the PAP to lose up to 15-20 seats but a loss of up to 10 seats should be market neutral,' said AmFraser. 'The next support after 3,110-30 is 3,065.'

Nomura, meanwhile, conjectured that if the PAP achieves a significantly reduced popular vote, the government may look to review some of its policies such as immigration. Also, to address the concern about unaffordable property, it may accelerate its public housing programme and also tweak its property rules to further dampen price appreciation in the private residential property. Hence, residential property and gaming sectors may be negatively affected.

Finally, let's ponder a little on the 'Unlikely' scenario, where the PAP has a clean sweep of all the seats. This, according to my colleague in The Straits Times, Chua Mui Hoong, 'should be the biggest fear for the PAP: not a freak election result that sends it out of power, but a freak result that returns it to 87 out of 87 elected seats in Parliament'.

The PAP has worked hard to project Singapore as an open, vibrant society globally. It has tried to meet Singaporeans' desire for more Opposition in Parliament without real risk to its dominant position, she wrote. 'A clean sweep at GE 2011 would thus send a very wrong signal to the rest of the world and to Singapore, about the foibles of the Singapore electoral system.'

As such, would such an outcome really be market-neutral then?


the writer is a CFA charterholder
Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:30/04/11

Hui Xian shares' sharp swings erode yuan gain

Business Times - 30 Apr 2011


Hui Xian shares' sharp swings erode yuan gain

By SHU-CHING JEAN CHEN
IN HONG KONG

THE lukewarm response to the first initial public offering (IPO) in yuan-denominated shares outside mainland China contrasts starkly with the strong showing of the yuan, providing a curious footnote to the history of the Chinese currency's internationalisation. Hui Xian Reit, controlled by Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing, opened yesterday at HK$4.83, a hefty 8 per cent drop from its IPO price, before edging back to end at HK$4.75. The sharp swings in the stock easily erode the 1.5 per cent gain the yuan has made for the year to date.

The yuan's move caps a week during which the Chinese currency had been setting new highs against the US dollar, eventually breaking the 6.5 per dollar barrier yesterday for the first time since 1993 on official hints that currency appreciation could be a tool to rein in inflation.

For investors who bought into the shares amid much fanfare, the verdict is straightforward. 'It's quite disappointing, given the high market expectations for Hui Xian,' said Ben Kwang, chief operating officer of KGI Securities Asia. On the bright side, worries about local liquidity of the yuan to support secondary trading, segregated from mainland's currency supply, were alleviated: Hui Xian was the day's second most actively traded stock after China Construction Bank. The subscription of its shares, clocking in at five billion yuan (S$943 million), accounts for 1.2 per cent of the 400 billion yuan in circulation in Hong Kong.

Perhaps no one put it more succinctly than Charles Li, chief executive of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Exchanges, who told reporters at yesterday's listing ceremony that 'RMB products don't necessarily have anything inherently superior than Hong Kong dollar products. They are just denominated in a different currency. In the end, we just want to make sure RMB products do not have a natural disadvantage'.

Hui Xian might have been doomed from the onset. Analysts faulted it on various fundamentals: a short lifespan - its ownership value in a Chinese joint venture will come to nil at the end of a 38-year life; low retail subscription; aggressive pricing for its sole asset, a mixed-use property complex next to Tiananmen Square called Oriental Plaza; an unremarkable yield of between 4 per cent and 4.26 per cent, compared to other Hong Kong-listed Reits.

A marketing miscalculation could also play a part. A spokeswoman for CITIC Securities International, Hui Xian's financial adviser, pointed out that it could have elicited stronger interest had it cut in half the retail offer to 10 per cent, as other typical IPOs do.

Hui Xian's debut may not bode well for future issues, but memories were short in Hong Kong and investors could return in droves once price rebounds. More long-lasting could be viability of a new yuan trading system put in place for the Hui Xian IPO, thanks to the participation of 340 local brokerages covering more than 80 per cent of market. Talks of dual-currency trading, plus dual-listings, may not sound as crazy.

CITIC Securities, China's biggest brokerage which initiated the idea of launching an IPO in yuan a year ago with Hui Xian before approaching regulators in Hong Kong, said it is in talks with potential clients for similar IPOs. 'We believe that it is our mission and also one of our special competitive edge to develop innovative renminbi-denominated financial solutions to our clients and investors,' it told The Business Times. Without this sense of mission, it would be hard to justify all the hassles involved in the trading of a yuan-denominated IPO in a city whose currency is pegged to the dollar.

CITIC Securities started working on the yuan trading's IT system in Hong Kong from the third quarter last year, carrying out enhancement and testing. After that, the Hong Kong Exchange began systemwide tests early this year. All these efforts will go down the drain without investors' support.


Source/转贴/Extract/:www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:30/04/11

德信每股派息2仙

2011/04/30 11:19:35 AM
●南洋商报

(吉隆坡29日讯)德信控股(DXN,5074,主板消费产品股)截至2月28日的2011财年第四季,净利增长32.68%至680万令吉,去年同期为512万5000令吉。

营业额则从去年同期的6013万7000令吉,稍微增长7.26%至6450万4000令吉。

2011财政年营业额和净利分别增长7.47%和44.96%,至2亿7934万2000令吉和4120万4000令吉。

德信控股也宣布派发每股2仙的股息,全年股息达9.75仙。

Source/转贴/Extract/: 南洋商报
Publish date:30/04/11

买产业不如买产业股

分享锦集:买产业不如买产业股
●冷眼
2011/04/29 6:18:25 PM
●冷眼 股市基本面大师

在过去两年中,房地产价格暴涨,尤其是在尺金寸土的大都市,如吉隆坡,房屋供不应求,屋价作三级跳,涨幅尤其惊人。

首都居,大不易。首都市民,尤其是外来者,不少人只能望屋兴叹。

除非得到父母或亲人的帮助,否则的话,一般受薪阶级,要在吉隆坡购买最普通的民居,例如双层排屋,几乎已是可望不可及,即使付得起头期,每个月的供款,也把他们压得透不过气来。

房市不会形成泡沫

首都的许多职场中人,已终身成为“屋奴”。供屋子、供汽车、儿子昂贵的教育费、有增无减的生活费,已成为受薪阶级的噩梦。

房屋市场会形成泡沫吗?

我的看法是不会。理由是:

1. 在屋价上涨之前,屋价曾停滞不少过5年,就以八打灵的屋价来说,普通排屋在四、五十万令吉之间徘徊了最少5年,如今涨至七、八十万令吉,涨幅高达四、五十巴仙。

在过去5年中,建材、地价已上升了一截,再加每年约6%地通货膨胀,建屋的成本恐怕已上涨了四、五十巴仙,故过去两年的屋价涨幅,其实是调整了成本的上升,并不为过。

2. 在购屋者中,一部分是购买屋子作为自己及家人住用的,买进后就不会再卖出;另一部分是买屋作为投资的,这些都是手持多余资金,买得起屋子的投资者,有长期拥有屋子的能力,不会轻易抛售。

地皮涨幅比屋子大

投资者虽然有,但相信巴仙率不高。所以,房屋市场泡沫形成的可能性不大。

但是,另一方面,屋价也不大可能再上一层楼,理由是:

1. 受薪阶级的收入增幅,跟不上屋子的涨幅,买屋与供屋,已非中等收入受薪人士所能负担得起。

2. 租金的上升幅度,跟不上屋价的升幅。投资回酬下降,使买屋子作为投资,已不大合算。

3. 除了收租之外,房屋投资者希望产业增值。但在屋价上升之后,增值的幅度,跟投资额相比,已不具有吸引力。

在真正需要屋子的人买不起屋子,购买屋子作为投资的魅力已递减的情况下,买产业作为投资,已不具吸引力,作为反向投资策略的信徒,窃以为买产业作为投资,此非其时。

在屋价猛涨下,地皮的价格亦猛涨,而且涨幅比屋子更大。

从投资的角度看,地皮的涨幅通常比屋子大,理由是屋子会折旧,而地皮,尤其是永久地契地皮则不会。尤其是地点优良,接近市中心的地皮涨幅更加惊人。

上市产业公司3营运作风

犹记十多年前,吉隆坡黄金三角地带的商用地皮,每方尺售价不过五、六百令吉,如今每方尺2000多令吉仍有买方无卖方。

许多上市产业公司,拥有许多地点优良的地皮,假如你细读这些公司的年报的话,你会发现有些地皮,是在10年前,甚至20年前买下的。

地皮价格倍增

有关公司仍以十多二十多年前的价值入账,实际上,这些地皮的价格,可能已上升数倍,如果以目前的市价估值的话,每股净有形资产价值必然大增。

上市产业公司的营运作风,大致上可以分为三类:

第一类是买进地皮,就积极建屋出售,其盈利主要来自出售屋子。

第二类是买进地皮后,就慢慢的发展,他们的理由是屋价不断上涨,慢慢发展,较后兴建的屋子,由于屋价更高,而地皮成本低,故赚幅会更大。

与其积极发展地皮,倒不如放慢发展,这类公司的盈利,往往不如积极发展地皮的公司,但他们所持有的地皮已大幅度增值,每股净有形资产价值,比股价高一倍一点也不稀奇。

第三类是长期拥有房地产的办公楼、购物中心及工厂等,一方面有稳定的租金收入,一方面可以取得产业增值的利益,在上市公司中,雪兰莪实业和怡保花园是典型的例子,这也是所有产业投资信托公司所采的策略。

宜购二三线优质股

为什么上市产业公司不重估其地皮?

原来有关当局规定,凡是供发展用途的地皮,都不能重新估值后入账,这就是所有上市产业公司的账目中,供发展的地皮,仍以10年前,甚至20年前的价值入账的原因。

在大马股票交易所上市的产业公司,交投活跃及业绩表现标青的公司,其股价已大涨,目前的股价已反映其真实价值。

股价被低估

但第二、三线的产业公司,股价仍在低价区徘徊,以他们所拥有的地皮计算,股价肯定是被严重低估。

这些二、三线公司的股票,不受市场青睐,一方面是他们的业绩表现,乏善可陈;一方面是交投不活跃,投资及投机者不感兴趣,导致股价表现落后于大势。

投资者与其买产业作为投资,倒不如买第二、三线产业股作为投资,更加合算。

当然,在买进之前,投资者必须作严格的筛选,毕竟第二、三线产业股,良莠不齐,并非全部值得投资。

以买地皮的态度买产业股,应可获利。


Source/转贴/Extract/: 南洋商报
Publish date:29/04/11

STOCKS or PROPERTIES: Which investment is easier to make money in?

STOCKS or PROPERTIES: Which investment is easier to make money in?

The following post is excerpted from the newly launched Secrets of Singapore Property Gurus. The author interviewed Dennis Ng, Director of Leverage Holdings, who shared the following insights:

IN 2006, when the market was still in an upward trend, I had 80% of my money invested into stocks. However, in 2007, when I felt that the stock market was in a bubble stage, I decided to sell most of my stocks, and thus avoided the 2008 stock market crash.

I also invest in real estate. In fact, investing in property has its own risks and characteristics. Let me share with you the differences between Stock Investing and Property Investing:

1. Property investing gives you more leverage than stocks

If you own stocks with a market value of $1 million, the loan that financial institutions might be willing to grant you, using your stocks as collateral, would be a maximum of 70% of the market value of the stocks.

On the other hand, when you buy a property, Banks are willing to grant you loans up to a maximum of four times your equity. For instance, if you put down 20% of the property price as a downpayment, the bank can grant you up to maximum of 80% financing, or 400% of your equity, to finance the purchase.

If stock prices fall, and the value of your holdings drop from say $1 million to $800,000, the banks would call you and ask you to “top up” $140,000, to keep the loan to a collateral ratio of 70%. This is technically known as a “margin call”. If you fail to top up in time, the bank will force sell your stock to meet the shortfall.

However, if you buy real estate, even if property prices fall, usually as long as you can pay the mortgage instalments, the bank will not bother you at all.

The above differences in the treatment of loans for stocks and property clearly show that to the lender, the risk seems much lower for real estate compared to stock investing.

2. You may lose everything in stock investing

If you have the ability to hold for more than 10 years, you will usually not lose money in real estate, since in the long run property prices typically rise and can keep pace with the rate of inflation.

But if you buy stocks, when the company runs into financial or cashflow problems, even if you “faithfully” hold the stock for 10 years, it is still possible to make losses to the tune of 80% to 90%.

For instance, in year 2000, during the technology bubble, many stocks relating to technology were trading at high prices. In year 2010, 10 years after the technology bubble burst in March 2000, the current market value of some of these stocks are just about 10% compared to their peak in 2000. There are even some listed companies that faced the misfortune of closure, and the company’s stock holders may get back nothing from their investment.

So if you want to make money in the stock market, learning how to choose and select the right stocks to invest in is very important.

However, for many people who have no knowledge of investments, if they hold on to real estate for decades, they might still be able to profit from it, because it is impossible for the value of a property to fall to zero.

3. You can pay lower than market price to buy a house

If the price of a stock is $1, there is no way for you to pay below the market price of, say, $0.90, or 10% lower, to buy the stock. However, if you buy real estate, it is possible for you to buy 10% lower than the market value of the house.

Why do some property owners sell the property despite the sale price being 10% lower than market value? There can be many reasons: ignorance of the market value of the property, or they may be in a desperate need for cash, or the sale is due to divorce or other situations.

4. You can enhance the value of the property

If you purchase a stock today, can you do anything to increase the value of the stock by 10%? The answer is no.

You can only hope that the company’s business will improve after you bought the stock and its share price would rise.

But if you buy a property, there are many ways you can enhance its value. It can be as simple as giving the property a fresh coat of paint, division of space to add a room to increase rent, or even doing some minor retrofitting and renovation. All these actions are likely to enhance the value of the house.

5. You can let others help you pay for your property

Imagine if you want to purchase an item, but are only willing to pay the downpayment, and let someone else help you pay the balance.

Can this be done for stock investing? Of course not. But if when you invest in real estate, you just pay a 20% downpayment, and the balance of up to a maximum of 80% of the purchase price can be taken as a loan, and the monthly housing loan repayment can be “reimbursed” from the rents collected. As a result, the balance of up to 80% of the price of the property is actually “paid” by the tenant for you!

Let me use a simple example to illustrate. For instance, you buy a $1 million property and borrow 70% of the purchase price. Suppose you choose a loan period of 25 years, and the average housing loan interest rate is 3%, the monthly housing loan repayment is $2,655. If you can rent out the house for $3,000, then your tenant actually is helping you to pay the housing loan instalment!

“Is McDonald's in the business of selling hamburgers?”

When asked whether McDonald’s business is to sell hamburgers, management replied that they are really investing in real estate, and using the sale of hamburgers to earn money to buy real estate!

Most people dream of being Warren Buffett. However, most stock investors are losing money. According to CPF data, most people with a fund investing in stocks have ended up losing money.

On the other hand, except for some special cases such as buying a house at the peak of the market, it is difficult to find a real estate investor who has held for more than 10 years who is still making a loss.

I hope the above helps you understand better the differences between stock and property investing. But if you want to get rich, learn BOTH. The Really Rich and Smart ones, invest in Both Stocks and Properties.

There are times when stocks are a better Investment, and times when properties are better investments. So invest in the right thing at the right time.

For instance, for the next year or so, I personally think there’s more upside to investing into Stocks than Property. Let’s look back in time in future to see whether I’m right on this.

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.sharesinv.com/
Publish date:26/04/11

Weaker dollar turns out to be a Winner? in currency war

The Star Online > Business

Saturday April 30, 2011

Weaker dollar turns out to be a Winner? in currency war

By CECILIA KOK
cecilia_kok@thestar.com.my

LOOKS like we've got a clear “winner” in this so-called global currency war the United States, of course, as its dollar continues to weaken against almost all major currencies in the world, and seemingly improve the country's export competitiveness.

As of Thursday, for instance, the US dollar had already weakened by 6.9% year-to-date against the British pounds, 9.8% against the euro and 6.7% against the Australian dollar. Against Asian currencies, too, the greenback is on a weakening trend.

This so-called global currency war was brought to light in the second half of last year as Brazilian finance minister Guido Mantega warned of the harmful effects of countries racing to devalue their currencies on the global economy. It was becoming apparent then that central banks in many countries had been intervening to contain the strengthening of their currencies, particularly against the US dollar, so that their economies could maintain their export competitiveness and boost domestic growth.

But such efforts are becoming increasingly tough and costly to maintain for many.

The greenback is sliding fast due to the weak fundamentals of the US economy such as its anaemic growth and ballooning fiscal deficits as well as its various policy measures, including its quantitative easing programmes and super low interest rates.

Faster yuan rise

Even current global-growth leader China, which has been digging in its heels against demands by Western powers to revalue its currency, seems to be waving the white flag now.

Last week, top guns in the Chinese administration signalled that they would use the yuan (or renminbi) as a tool to tame the country's rising inflation. That has been taken as an indication of a faster appreciation of the currency in the months ahead.

The yuan was quoted at 6.501 per US dollar as of Thursday, representing a gain of 4.7% since the removal of its two-year peg to the greenback in June 2010. Year-to-date, the yuan has gained some 1.6% against the greenback.

Many argue that a faster appreciation of the yuan could help China control its inflation by reducing the country's growing imports bill, especially for commodities and raw materials. This could help translate into lower costs in local currency term, hence containing the effects of rising commodity and raw material costs on domestic consumer prices.

China's inflation, as measured by its consumer price index (CPI), rose to almost a three-year high last month to 5.4% year-on-year (y-o-y), compared with 4.9% y-o-y in February. This has triggered a sense of urgency among Chinese policymakers.

But rising inflation is not just unique to China as it is also being faced by many economies across the world.

Ringgit up or down

Inflation in Malaysia remains arguably “moderate” when compared to the pressure faced by other countries in the region. CPI in March rose 3% y-o-y, compared with 2.9% y-o-y the month before.

Economists say the “relatively tame” inflation in Malaysia is mainly attributable to the existence of subsidy and price control measures on key essential items. Some also argue that the rise of ringgit against the US dollar over the past year has somewhat kept inflation under control by lowering the country's imports bill.

Ringgit, at RM2.966 to the US dollar on Thursday, marked a gain of about 3.2% against the greenback from the start of the year, and a gain of 13.4% from January 2010.

Noteworthy is that the recent rise of ringgit is not because of the strength of the currency per se, but rather, due to the greenback's continued weakness. Almost all other currencies in the world to a varying degree are experiencing the same trend.

Against some major currencies such as the euro, and Australian and Singaporean dollars, for example, the ringgit has actually lost 8%, 4% and 1.3% year-to-date, respectively.

The general perception is that the appreciation of the ringgit against the greenback, which would have translated into lower input costs in local currency terms for producers, would have lowered the final prices of goods and services sold in the domestic market. But that may not always be the case.

According to economists, there are several factors why the direction of the ringgit against other major currencies has little impact on local consumer prices. One being the fact that prices tend to be sticky upwards.

RAM Holdings Bhd group chief economist Dr Yeah Kim Leng explains: “In the case of Malaysia, where there is a lack of healthy competition, and producers and industries tend to have strong pricing power, the pass-through effects of a stronger currency on consumer prices will be limited. The reluctance of producers to pass through the cost savings is so that they can continue to enjoy good profit margins.”

It is undeniable that producers are currently facing an uncertain environment, given the volatility of global commodity and raw material prices. This has further strengthened producers' inclination to maintain or increase prices of their products to preserve a healthy profit margin.

Affin Investment Bank chief economist Alan Tan says: “It's tough to argue that the strengthening of the ringgit against the greenback will result in lower prices of goods and services for final consumers. Yes, import prices will be cheaper, but the reality is, there has also been a sharp pick-up in input costs of late and that made it difficult for final prices to come down.”

Partly to blame, in fact, is the weakening of the US dollar, which is pushing the prices of commodities, precious metals and raw materials higher. This is happening as investors are dumping US dollar-denominated assets to plough their monies into other assets and products that they believe could be a good hedge against the expected rise of inflation.

Yeah explains: “Rightly or wrongly, producers are using the excuse that in this rising cost environment, any cost savings resulting from exchange rate differential will already be offset by higher commodity and raw material costs.”

Malaysia Rating Corp Bhd chief economist Nor Zahidi Alias says he believes that “part of the inflationary problem in the country is attributable to the supply factor, which to some extent, is influenced by profiteering and hoarding activities.”

In this regard, economists believe that the recent introduction of the Price Control & Anti Profiteering Act 2010 is a step in the right direction to prevent unethical behaviour of producers. As is usually the case, though, they say proper enforcement remains key to the effectiveness of the Act in helping to control inflation. The same goes for the future implementation of the Competition Act 2010 in January 2012.

“Both the new Acts could help in time to come, to the extent of how effective and strong the enforcement is. Otherwise, I think business will be as usual for everyone,” he adds.

Source/转贴/Extract/: The Star Online
Publish date:30/04/11

AirAsia to re-impose fuel surcharge starting Tuesday

The Star Online > Business
Saturday April 30, 2011

AirAsia to re-impose fuel surcharge starting Tuesday

PETALING JAYA: Low-cost carrier AirAsia Bhd has finally succumbed to the pressure of persisting high fuel prices and will re-introduce fuel surcharge ranging from RM10 to RM30 per flight after having abolished its fuel surcharge policy in late 2008.

AirAsia said in a statement yesterday the surcharge would be imposed starting May 3 for all domestic and international routes. All flight bookings made before May 3 are not affected.

AirAsia said it needed to re-introduce fuel surcharge to offset against escalating jet fuel prices, which have exceeded US$140 per barrel.

All domestic flights and international flights under two hours will be imposed with a RM10 fuel surcharge per way, RM20 (one way) for flights between two and three hours and RM30 (one way) for flights above three hours.

Meanwhile, long-haul affiliate AirAsia X will impose fuel surcharge ranging from RM50 to RM90 per way depending on destination.

AirAsia abolished fuel surcharge in November 2008 and has created much hoopla surrounding its ability to do away with fuel surcharge for over two years, as it used its growing ancillary income to cushion the impact of rising fuel costs.

“The rising jet fuel prices and the continuous upward spiral caused by the situation in the Middle East and other external factors have made it imperative for us to reintroduce the fuel surcharge, despite our best efforts to resist it for as long as we could,” AirAsia regional head of commercial Kathleen Tan said.

Source/转贴/Extract/: The Star Online
Publish date:30/04/11

放长线,钓大鱼

放长线,钓大鱼,用来比喻做事从长远打算,虽然不能立竿见影,但将来能获得更大的好处。用这句话来概括新加坡目前的房地产市场投资,再恰当不过。

(时代财智讯)政府每次推出打压楼市新措施,买家和卖家都需要时间来消化和评价市场环境,然后才做出决定。就笔者看来,最近的新政可谓严厉,但我们更需了解政府这样做的目的是什么。政府不想看到那么多人进场,鲁莽地购买房地产,甚至超出个人的支撑能力,拥有多重地产。政府担心,一旦经济表现不佳,这些人将遇到大麻烦。

乐观而言,房产新政对长期投资者来说是有好处的。新政要求高首付,表明你的财力要够强,即使房产价格下降,屋主也不必急于出售。新政预计不会像2008年那样引发价格大幅下降,毕竟目前的经济形式总体乐观。此外,目前利率水平偏低,投资者普遍宁愿持有房产,也不愿售出,以维持较为丰厚的租金收益。

因此,博纳产业集团(PropNex Realty)预测,投机市场价格总体在接下来的几个月内或下降5-10%,幷终将获得恢复,在年底再上升1-2%。

例如,一些早期投资滨海舫(The Sail)的人现在或许在乘机出售,尽管价格相比2010年峰值较低,但获利仍然丰厚。即使价格届时下降10%,投资者不妨再重新考虑进入市场,借较低利率之利,收获更多租金收益。大多数投资者在寻找接下来的投资项目时,会将眼光放宽到一个三年到五年的时间范围内。而对一年内出售私有房产者征收16%的出售方印花税(SSD)的新条款,将不会影响到这些做长远打算的人。

政府组屋溢价或再降

至于政府组屋(HDB)市场,我们预期价格将上涨5-8%。因为组屋供应仍然短缺,同时需求强劲。现金溢价(Cash Over Valuation)已经降至2万3000新元,笔者估计今年年底现金溢价将继续降至约1万5000新元。原因有二,对于永久居民(PRs)来说,一旦他们在海外拥有任何形式的房产,将不能购买转售组屋;对于本地居民,如果拥有私人房产,则必须卖出后方能购买政府组屋自住。

大众私宅市场价格预计今年则增加3-5%;房龄较老的私宅将增8%,因其价格仍在可承受范围较低水平;对于新发售项目,价格预计下降8%,因为目前的售价已超过每平方英尺1000新元,对大众市场新项目而言,这已超出可承受范围。

中央核心区(CCR)房价可能增长1-2%。鉴于购买第二套私宅首付比例提高至40%,买家或许转而考虑较小户型,因风险更低,租金收益更好。这也将推动中央核心区以外(RCR)价格,增幅可达5-8%。

至于有地住宅,全年价格增幅可达8-10%,因其供应量仍然不足。随着经济好转、土地稀少的前提下,有地住宅价格持续增长是合理的,因买家大多买来自住,有地住宅市场没有存在过多的投机行为。

由于经济增长强劲,许多公司正在扩张,增加办公空间,导致需求与租金同时上涨。办公室领域今年预计取得5-10%的增长。但由于办公室领域不受新政限制,比如不涉及16%的出售者印花税等问题,因此如果更多资金流入该领域也不是件好情,这将造成价格加速上涨,业主将抬高办公租金,进而造成公司财务成本增加,这对经济和就业环境都不利。

总体来说,无论是住宅,还是商业领域,价格涨幅都不能过快,政府推出措施,最终的目的是要保障房地产市场处在一个稳健的增长水平上,保证房产价格的可支付性。

在最新措施出台后,笔者相信政府会退后一步,继续观察市场动态。笔者也希望政府再次推出新措施前,能够审视接下来的半年到一年内的市场变化。若在短时间内,出台过多打压措施,对那些希望将资金投放在房产的长期投资者幷不利。

其实,新加坡、香港、和中国大陆都在监视彼此的房地产措施,幷彼此借鉴。它们有一个共性,这些区域都涌入了大量热钱。香港最近的措施幷没奏效,或者说没有达到预期效果。因此,新加坡启用了甚至更加严厉的政策以抑制房价涨幅。

放长线,钓大鱼
根据目前的市场情形,投资者可保持观望态度,某些投资项目会降价10%以上。一旦决定购买,要确保了解自己的财政情况,为了避免缴付印花税,这是一个长达4年以上的长期投资。政府是支持资产稳定升值的,长线放出,肥鱼稳赚。

为什么说稳赚?对于那些手上有足量现钱的人,房地产价格下降,反而更适合进场,坐享可观的租金收益。好过把钱放在银行,因为通货膨胀率很高,固定利率(Fixed Deposit)仅为0.5%。将钱放在银行,等于甘愿受损失;将钱投在资产上,租金收益是稳定保障。

支付按揭贷款后,每月收入约1000至1500新元,相当于每年收入1万2000新元至1万5000新元,很明显优于固定利率和股市的股息支付率。至于商业地产,投资商铺买卖不加收印花税,最低首付仍为30%。

放长线,钓大鱼,到时的鱼够不够肥,购买者不必过分担心。因为新加坡政府有好的监管政策,新加坡土地始终很有限,加上通货膨胀等因素,最终资产价格仍将升值,因为政府最终是要保障房地产健康稳健增值,避免出现增加过快的局面。只要投资者不在价格下降期间出场,就应该不会损失,因为房地产总是处于一个周期循环过程。市场上升时卖出,市场下降时入场。入场后,价格高峰还会再次循环回来。笔者个人最喜欢的一句话是:“不是你买入的时候,而是在你卖出的时候,才会看到收益。”

归根结底,市场上的需求强劲,供应不足,是价格趋于上涨的根本原因。政策公布以后,许多投资者取消售出计划,因为他们不能以20%的最低首付购买下一处房产,也不能承担16%的印花税。低利率水平也促使他们宁愿持有,而不卖出。

现在的经济情况与2008年不同,那时的房地产持有者受到经济情况影响较重。而今天拥有第二处房地产的大部分人不会因资金问题售出,他们越不急于卖出,越是导致供应短缺,最终使真正需要购买房地产的人付出更高价格。目前就是这样,持有者观望,直到买家作出购买决定。

房产市场魅力不减

无论是投机者,还是真实买家,无论他们购买房地产的用途是什么,他们都在等待,幷观察市场状况如何变化,房地产市场魅力依然不减,原因分几个方面:

1.低利率
最低首付要求增加,但价格幷没有变化,低利率水平促使投资者将钱投资在房地产上,利用租金收益获得稳定收入,回报比任何定期存款收益要高。

2.房地产是一种增值资产
除非经历剧烈的经济动荡,房地产价格预计在今年继续获得稳定或者缓慢增长。多数卖家不愿以低价格出售,借贷利率较低,他们承受的贷款压力不大。30%-40%的最低首付确实起到激励作用,能够有能力入场的买者,更有支撑能力,不急于卖出。

价格下滑时期,你不会卖出,因为卖出就等于接受损失,价格迟早会回升。关键在于一旦市场情况恶劣,购买者必须具备支撑能力,除非你能够挨过任何市场情况,否则不建议进场。回顾2008年,当价格遭遇冷水后,最终再次回归,过去类似的过程多次重复,如2007年高峰。

3.硬资产优于纸上资产
许多人选择购买房地产这样的硬资产,因其具备持久的价值,即便经历金融危机时期。人们觉得将资金投在房地产上,要比投在金融工具上更安全,因为房地产是不动产,即使市场情形不好,资产还在。

4.市场情形对长期投资者无妨
买家以长期投资的眼光进行投资,不必过度关注市场的短期变化。房地产在新加坡长远来看,还是会增长,土地匮乏是不争事实,需求强劲也是事实。长远来看,房地产仍比其它金融工具更赚钱。举例来说,债券是相对比较安全的投资,但资产升值空间很有限。

5.稳靠财产,收益不断
购买政府组屋也不便宜,高级共管组屋价格在每平方英尺650到750新元,已经接近大众市场私人住宅的价格。而一套私有化中等入息公寓(HUDC)已经达到100万新元,幷且价格继续趋于上涨。父母们考虑购买住宅,不仅为抵抗通货膨胀,也是他们留给子女的稳靠财产。若今后房价继续上涨,建筑材料成本不可避免也随之上涨,恐怕年青一代无力支撑。

总之,市场情况每段时期都在变化,但不变的是房地产作为资产所独有的特点和魅力,在新加坡这个地小人多的地方,笔者不担心房地产市场的前景。在价格偏低时,审视自己的财力,有能力支撑的话,不如长线钓鱼,不管到时的鱼够不够肥,地产的稳定性始终还是最重要的。再次重复那句话,“不是你买入的时候,而是在你卖出的时候,才会看到收益。”


冯景祥(Kelvin Fong)
博纳产业集团(PropNex Realty),区域高级执行董事

Source/转贴/Extract/:时代财智 新加坡
Publish date:27/04/11

投资海外房产,不如去大马

随着亚洲投资者财富不断累积,投资选择范围也随之扩大。越来越多的房地产投资者已把目光投向海外。

在新加坡,房地产价格持高不下,投资与投机行为不断受到政策的抑制和打压。有远见的投资者,何不将目光转移到更有投资潜力的地区?

  近年来,马来西亚已经成为广大投资者所关注的房地产投资热点。究其原因主要包括马国长期稳定的政治局势和经济气候,以及欢迎海外投资者的友好政策。以价格而言,马国首都吉隆坡(Kuala Lumpur)市中心一带的房地产价格,在过去三年内已见证了平均30%的资产涨幅。此外,马国在吸引海外直接投资(FDIs)方面也有不俗的表现。

对外政策宽松和其他国家相比,马来西亚对于外国房地产投资者来说,提供了更加自由宽松的政策和制度。马国政府一直力求将更多的海外直接投资带到当地,而马来西亚工业发展局(MIDA)也正在为此做出努力。 外国人在马国被允许获得各种形式的住宅单位,商业店铺,办公楼和零售摊位等。无论是在过去还是新发售的项目,只要投资金额超过50万令吉($500,000 RM)即可,不必受其它条件的限制。外国人也被允许使用当地的金融资源和机构,但仅在为他们的房地产投资提供援助的范畴之内。 外国人最多可以购置两间住宅——例如两间共管公寓(每栋建筑最多限售50%的拥有权给海外人士),或者一间共管公寓和一间半独立式房屋等其它类型有地房产。 如果海外买家想购买第三间房产,则必须咨询总理府外国投资协会经济计划组(Foreign Investment Committee of the Economic Planning Unit),并要求提供充分合理的申请缘由,等待批准。 在马来人预留地区的房地产,海外投资者不允许购买。除此限制,外国投资者与当地居民一致受到当地房地产法律的保护。 外国人与本国居民一样,可以从马国银行申请借贷价值比率(LTV)最高80%的贷款,而利率目前在亚洲也是偏低的(3.5%)。 购买房产要追加印花税,计算方法分不同级别而定。购买者要为首个10万令吉交付1000令吉的税款,接下来的40万令吉交付8000令吉税款,如果购买价格超过了50万令吉,那么要为其余的价格付出3%的税款。

马国政府为鼓励更多海外人士投资马来西亚房地产,积极推广“我的第二故乡-马来西亚”(“Malaysia My Second Home”, MM2H)计划。除给予参与计划家庭10年多次入境居留证之外,还让他们享有多项产业与税务豁免奖励。参与此项计划的最低房产消费价格是50万令吉,而这项计划的花费成本为每四口之家1万8千令吉。

怎样选地?
以下是马来西亚在过去数年增长相对显著的地点,分析员认为这些投资目的地在今后也有增长潜力:

吉隆坡(Kuala Lumpur):吉隆坡是马来西亚房地产市场增长最快的地区之一,尤其是从九十年代亚洲经济蓬勃发展后。吉隆坡投资便捷,城市机场连接各大主要航线,并有高速铁路服务系统支持。作为许多跨国企业的区域总部所在地,吸引各国移民长期在此居住,租金也跟随不断上升。外国人被允许最多可以购置两间住宅,且有权获得高达60%的银行贷款。

雪兰莪州(Selangor):雪兰莪州经济主要依赖农业和商业的快速发展。这些优势为跨国企业在区域建厂提供了有利的先决条件。随着雪兰莪国际航线的出现,双威礁湖度假村 (Sunway Lagoon) 和瓜拉雪兰莪(Kuala Selangor)两处胜地的带动,该州正在喜迎更多世界各地游客的光顾。这也恰好带动了该地的住房需求,成为投资者关注雪兰莪州房地产的原因。该州允许海外人士购买房地产的底限价格为25万令吉,这一底限在马来西亚全国来说都是最低的。

槟城(Penang):槟城被划分为槟岛(Penang Island)和威尔斯利省(Province Wellesley)。槟榔屿,槟城(Seberang prai),双溪大年(Sungai Petani),和沽里(Kuli)都是房产投资的理想选择,因为这些地方都是为槟城大都会提供住房的地区。这些区域的房地产无论对于居住,还是商业用途,都比较适合。

槟城也是一个高科技中心,集中在工业和半导体领域。资讯走廊赛城(MSC Malaysia)和槟城生物技术园区正在将国外投资者引入该区。在此之上,槟城也是许多侨民在退休之后的理想居处。作为岛屿,该地区土地必然稀少,在槟城投资地产花销比其他地区(如香港、上海)来得少。不断上升的需求使得槟城房地产价格似乎看涨,投资者可能是时机在此大赚一笔了。

柔佛(Johor):地理位置靠近新加坡,是马来西亚的主要核心城市之一。人口增加显著,旅游业发展迅速。国外买家在该地购买房地产的价格底线为50万令吉。此外,柔佛是马来西亚唯一向外国投资者征税务的地区。随着马来西亚依斯干达(Iskandar Malaysia)的加快发展,它将成为一个投资热点。充满生气的商业环境加上知识密集型产业的发展,优越的基础设施建设和技能型人才的聚集,使这一地区成为外国投资者的良佳选择。

吉打(Kedah):位于吉打的居林高科技园区(Kulim Hi-Tech Park,KHTP)被评为马来西亚的“未来科技城市”。这个综合性的科技园集中在科技相关产业,诸如电子,电信,生物技术和科技研发。该园拥有优越的基础设施,良好的服务支持,和专业的园区管理。

投资新趋势
2011年的绿色建筑(green buildings)需求将继续攀升。绿色建筑能够帮助房屋买家获得更高的增值,收获更高的租金,比相似的非绿色建筑享有更高的占用率。

马来西亚政府非常支持绿色建筑的开发,并在2009年推出了自己的绿色建筑评级系统(the Green Building Index,GBI)。2010年的预算上,首次将优先权给予环保产品和服务的采集采购上。

至于办公楼领域,分析员预期今年吉隆坡的A级办公楼租金将趋于稳定,租金率在每平方英尺5令吉(US$1.62)至7令吉(US$2.27)之间。而零售房地产板块在今年预期得到加强,鉴于良性合理的新供应,和年轻人及增长的劳动人群购买能力的增强。

繁华地段的中等消费高层户型,在马来西亚将继续受到欢迎。建造更小,更能供得起的单位,在中心商业区内将仍然是主要潮流。来自年轻的中产阶级买家将对其拥有强劲的需求。

新地点,如像依斯干达(Iskandar Malaysia)和怡保(Ipoh)这样的地方将会拥有越来越多的需求,尽管相对主要核心地区拥有较低的增长率。巴生谷(Klang Valley)和槟城(Penang)将继续保持强劲的需求和价格记录。

马国投资要注意什么?

1)犯罪因素是外国投资者的主要顾虑。马来西亚虽拥有较高的犯罪率记录,不过遵循一些简单的方法还是可以保障人身安全。比如,避免单独走夜路;当面对粗暴蛮横的出租车司机时要保持镇定和冷静;避免卷入与陌生人之间不必要的谈话。

2)确认即将购买的房产是国家指定作为居住用途还是商业用途的。如果是商业用途,租金,价值评估和物业费用都将根据商业费率计算,必然要高于居住用途的房地产。

3)房地产买家在做出任何交易行为之前,都要核实当地的真实价格,避免付出远高于当地买家的价格。

4)马国规定房地产购置后,最少居住年限(MOP)为3年。那就是说,买家一定要等到住满三年后,方可售出房产获得资产升值。

5)一旦房产被批准购买,外国买主仅允许通过当地银行或金融机构获得财务支持。

6)为了冷却发展迅速的房地产市场,避免潜在的房地产泡沫威胁,马来西亚国家银行(Bank Negara)已经严令控制第三套房屋的住房抵押贷款。借贷者的第三套房屋以及后续房屋的贷款机制,贷款与房屋价值比率(LVR)最高为70%。尽管这些限制对投资行为仅产生了较小的影响,买家还是要当心不要过度支付,避免房价一旦在购买后下滑,使得买家更难退出市场。

Teh Heng Chong
马星集团(Mah Sing Properties),总经理

Teh Heng Chong在接受采访时表示:“作为海外地产公司,我们可以利用新加坡目前的市场状况,吸引更多新加坡人到马来西亚投资优等地段的房地产,比如在吉隆坡,槟城等。我们在建议投资者在挑选投资项目方面,看准地段,也要看好开发商的品牌,以保障投资的品质和价值。”

他还介绍,在马来西亚投资房地产优点很多。首先,房地产增值空间较大,但投资数额较低;其次,马来西亚的经济稳定,市场环境优越,不必担心洪水和地震等自然灾害;房地产投资政策也相对宽松优越。

对于任何投资来说,时机最重要。从大范围来看,目前马来西亚是亚洲成长最迅速的房地产市场之一。相对优越的基础设施建设,优质的房地产投资项目,加上友好的投资环境,使它成为获取高投资回报的绝佳投资地。


Tejaswi Chunduri
房地产分析师
PropertyGuru

Source/转贴/Extract/: 时代财智 新加坡
Publish date:29/04/11

Taking Stock of April 2011. Onward May.

Taking Stock of April 2011. Onward May.
By Charlie Lau Suan Liat

Technical comment

The Straits Times Index [STI] closed April 29 2011, 3180 points, up 74 points, or 2.38 per cent from March 31 [Closed: 3106 points]. Most stocks in the 30 Straits Times Index components traded within a very narrow range of 2 per cent making April the quietest month so far.

April saw the STI broke out of the downtrend from March and is now at the Hi-end of the uptrend Resistance line. Resistance is at 3208 points which is difficult to cross over in view of the 5-day Stochastic Momentum at the super Hi end.





Come May the Singapore Stock Market would still be lethargic unless daily traded volumes are above 1.6 billion shares or $1.6 billion for five days in a row. This would indicate foreign funds are in the Singapore equity market.

Fundamental comment

April saw a set of 1Q11 listed companies’ results mostly with improved profits albeit their share prices hardly moved more than 2 per cent. Exception to this observation is Keppel Corporation which gave a bonus 1:10 plus a 26c dividend. Keppel Corporation went ex-all on April 26 with its adjusted share price hitting the 52-week Hi at $12.08. The share price is now fizzling off. YangZiJiang announced an improved 63% profit but its share price hardly moved, still hovering around $1.81.

April has forgotten the March woes – MENA political problems [Middle East North Africa], Japan earthquakes, tsunami & the Fukushima Daiichi Atomic plant’s radiation leaks and the euro problems from the PIIGS nations [Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece & Spain].

Most of the hoo-ha news in April which did not greatly affect the STI is the General Election for Singapore to be held on May 7, 2011. The last five General Elections — 6 May 2006, 3 November 2001, 2 January 1997, 31 August 1991 and 3 September 1988 – saw election results not affecting the STI. That said, foreign funds are still shying away from the Singapore market until after May 7.

May over the last ten years saw the STI with seven downs against three ups. May 2011 should see more world negative economic news due to the extreme weakness of the USD against most other currencies. The lack of supplies of chips & parts from Japan due to the Fukushima Daiichi Atomic plant’s radiation leaks restricting power to Japanese factories are now taking effect on other countries dependent of such supplies.

Speculation in May should be minimal unless the overall market sees inflow of foreign funds as indicated by the daily traded volume of over 1.6 billion shares or $1.6 billion. That aside, best is if there is profit, “Sell in May, and Go Away.”



Source/转贴/Extract/: www.sharesinv.com
Publish date:29/04/11

Hui Xian in weak HK debut

Hui Xian in weak HK debut


2011/04/30


HONG KONG: Hong Kong tycoon Li Ka-shing's yuan-denominated initial public offering, the world's first outside mainland China, tumbled on its trading debut Friday but officials said the market remained full of promise.

Shares in Hui Xian Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) controlled by Asia's richest man, fell 9.35 per cent to end at 4.75 yuan (1 yuan = 46 sen), well below their 5.24 yuan offer price.

The weak debut comes despite high hopes that it will help bolster Beijing's bid to turn the yuan into a global currency that could rival the US dollar's dominance, and gauge the future for yuan IPOs in Hong Kong.

The poor performance came with markets across Asia depressed by lacklustre US economic data, and Hui Xian chairman Kam Hing-lam insisted that he was "very happy" with the IPO's performance.

Eddy Fong, chairman of Hong Kong's Securities and Futures Commission, described the listing as "historic". - AFP

Source/转贴/Extract/:www.btimes.com.my
Publish date:30/04/11

Zeti: We'll only act to ensure orderly currency market

Zeti: We'll only act to ensure orderly currency market


2011/04/30


PUTRAJAYA: Bank Negara Malaysia will only intervene in the currency market to maintain orderly market conditions, said governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz.

"We do not intervene to affect the underlying trend of the currency, which is supposed to reflect the underlying fundamentals," Zeti told the Business Times here yesterday.

The ringgit opened at 2.9740/9760 yesterday compared to Thursday's 2.9647/9667 close, keeping up the momentum of the seven straight trading days. It closed at 2.9600/9620

Zeti said the ringgit movement against the regional currencies has been stable, as all moved in tandem.

"Our major trading partners are in Asia. Sixty per cent of our trade is with Asia, so in terms of the region, we have a stable relationship.

"Its (appreciation) is only against the US dollar and we don't monitor just against the US dollar but against a range of currencies," she said.

On the current volatility of currencies and the ringgit's appreciation, Zeti said any assessment can only be made after studying the underlying trend of the currency.

"We cannot look at a particular point of time because we have seen our currency move towards strength as well as (weaken) towards the RM3.70 level."

The central bank, she said, has liberalised several regulations significantly, enabling the people to hold foreign currency accounts and corporate hedging instruments to allow them to manage their financial exposure.

So far, they have done well, she added.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak said that the ringgit appreciation has increased our exports' competitiveness.

Companies, he said, should seize the opportunity to become more competitive by having structural adjustments at the organisation level.

Regional economists have commented that central banks in Asia ex-Japan, have stepped up their inflation fight by allowing local currency appreciation.

Indonesia and Singapore have been leading the way, while other economies like China, Malaysia and Thailand have also become more tolerant of gradual currency appreciation given the rising inflation.

With inflation trends tilted to the upside from the rising energy and food prices globally, Bank Negara needs to assess to see the inflationary pressures and its duration and impact to the economy, Zeti said.

"We have to see if it's due to supply factors. Distribution, increasing production of food, promoting energy efficiency, automation, enhancing competitiveness - all these are very critical things because this is a global development and we need to build our buffers," she added.

Bank Negara will hold its monetary policy committee meeting on May 5, where it will be decided whether it needs to raise the Overnight Policy Rate. - By Rupa Damodaran

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.btimes.com.my
Publish date:30/04/11

Friday, April 29, 2011

Starhill Global REIT First Quarter 2011 Financial Results










Source/转贴/Extract/: SGX
Publish date:27/04/11

Ascendas India Trust FY 2010/11 Financial Results Presentation












Source/转贴/Extract/:SGX
Publish date:27/04/11

LMIR TRUST 1Q 2011 Results Presentation










Source/转贴/Extract/: SGX
Publish date:28/04/11

Cambridge 1Q2011 Financial Results





Source/转贴/Extract/: SGX
Publish date:28/04/11

Absolute Research: The S&P US Outlook Downgrade Raises One Key Question



Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:20/04/11

Cambridge Industrial Trust: Sharp drop in DPU following rights issue

Cambridge Industrial Trust: Sharp drop in DPU following rights issue (BUY, S$0.51, TP S$0.59)

1Q11 DPU dropped sharply mainly due to share base expansion. Cambridge Industrial Trust (CIT) reported a lower DPU of 1.0S¢ in 1Q11 (-21.4% YoY; -16.1% QoQ), representing 19.9% of our FY11 DPU estimate. The sharp drop in DPU is mainly attributable to the rights issue which was listed in Apr 2011. We expect CIT’s DPU to pick up in subsequent quarters as two acquisitions are expected to be completed and commence contributions in 2Q11. Given the 132m rights units have been officially listed on 15 Apr 2011, we lowered our FY11-12F DPU estimates by 13.9-9.2% respectively to account for the enlarged share base. Consequently, our TP is lowered to S$0.59, based on DDM (COE: 10.1%, TGR: 1.0%). Maintain BUY as CIT is still trading at undemanding spread of 6.5% vs pre-crisis spread of 4.9%.

S$46.4m worth of property acquisitions to be completed in 2Q11. Two new additions – a warehouse at 4 & 6 Clementi Loop, and an industrial building at 60 Tuas South Street 1 – will add ~233k sqft of GFA to CIT’s existing portfolio GFA of 6.98m sqft. Based on assumption of 40% debt funding, we expect incremental DPU of 0.09-0.23S¢ from the acquisitions in FY11-12. Meanwhile, the S$13.1m BTS project at Tuas View Circuit is expected to be completed only in 2Q12.

New term loan facility being mooted. CIT will need to refinance its loans beginning next year where its existing syndicated term loan of S$303m will mature in Feb 2012. It is currently in discussion with four financial institutions for new term loan of S$320m which comprises of a three-year tranche of S$220m and a five-year tranche of S$100m. Estimated all-in borrowing cost for the new term loan facility is ~4.4%/year. Coupled with the acquisition term loan facility which has debt cost of 3%, we expect CIT’s all in cost of debt to drop from current 5.7% to 4.0- 4.1%. In addition, we believe CIT’s gearing will decline to ~30% by end FY11.

4 & 6 Clementi Loop acquisition to be completed in 2Q11. Under the agreement, Hoe Leong Corporation will sell its three-storey warehouse and four-storey office building at Clementi Loop to CIT for S$40m. At the same time, Hoe Leong will lease from CIT for the use of the building in a 5+5 years tenancy contract. Separately, Hoe Leong will be expanding the GFA of 4 & 6 Clementi Loop by 10.3 sqm in the next two years. Upon completion, CIT will pay Hoe Leong another S$23.3m.

60 Tuas South Street 1 to be completed in 2Q11. The four-storey industrial building with anciliary office at Tuas South Street will add 44,675 sqft of GFA to CIT’s portfolio. The purchase price for this property is S$6.4m. Sole tenant will be Peter’s Polyethylene Industries Pte Ltd (PPI) which will enter into a seven-year long tenancy contract.

BTS project at Tuas View Circuit to start work in 2Q11. In order to serve the need of its customer, PPI, CIT will undertake BTS project at Tuas View Circuit for S$13.2m. The project will add ~121,424 sqft of GFA and PPI has pre-committed to leasing the property for 10 years. Estimated completion will be 2Q12.

2013-2014 lease expiry concentration declines further to 53.4% of portfolio. CIT has been effective in reducing its lease expiry concentration in the last one year from ~70% in end 2009 to current level. We think CIT is able to reduce the lease expiry concentration further to 40-45% level through pre-negotiation and pre-termination of leases, as well as disposals and acquisitions of assets.


Source/转贴/Extract/: DMG & Partners Research
Publish date:29/04/11

Yangzijiang: Margins surprised on the upside; expect stronger earnings in 2011/12

Yangzijiang: Margins surprised on the upside; expect stronger earnings in 2011/12 (BUY, S$1.83, TP S$2.47)

1Q11 results above estimates; maintain BUY with higher TP. 1Q11 net profit of RMB955m (+63% YoY, +14% QoQ) accounted for 30-32% of ours and street estimates. Excluding the RMB113m forex gain, adjusted net profit of RMB842m accounted for 28% of our forecast. The strong performance was due to strong gross margins of 27% vs. 23% in 1Q10. Following the latest analyst briefing, we raise our FY11-12 net profit by 8-10% as we revise our gross margins forecasts for FY11/12 from 18.6%/15.5% to 20.0%/16.1% and expect higher financing income. Consequently, our TP is revised from S$2.30 to S$2.47, pegged to an unchanged target P/E of 15x. Maintain BUY. Key catalysts are order wins for containerships and successful expansion into other shipyard related businesses.

Revenue visibility still strong for the next two years. YZJ has 131 vessels in its order book with a total value of US$5.38b (RMB35b) (as of 31 Marc 2011) and this is 2.6x FY10 revenue. High margin orders still account for 55% of total order book. The high order book will keep the company busy for the next two years. Management is still expecting to double its existing shipyard capacity by end 2013 and is pursuing volume growth to counter the lower margins.

Dry bulk orders to be weak but not unexpected. Management shared that the market for dry bulk carriers is in bad shape due to the weakness in Baltic Dry Index (BDI). This is not something unexpected as we have previously highlighted that most of the new orders this year will come from the containership market.

High financing income but backed by high collateral. Financing income accounted for 24% of PBT with an annualised margin of ~12%. Total financial assets held-to-maturity (HTM) increased from RMB5.4b in 1Q10 to RMB10b in 1Q11. We believe YZJ will continue to channel the excess cash into financial assets to boost returns although this is generally not well received by the market.

Source/转贴/Extract/: DMG & Partners Research
Publish date:29/04/11

Sing$ hits new high; rupiah at 7-yr peak

Business Times - 29 Apr 2011


Sing$ hits new high; rupiah at 7-yr peak

(SINGAPORE) Emerging Asian currencies gathered upside momentum, touching milestones against the dollar yesterday after the Federal Reserve signalled it would not hurry to tighten policy, cementing expectations for further fund flows into Asia.

The Singapore dollar hit a fresh record high against the greenback and is seen as technically the most overbought since October last year, when the central bank widened its trading band for the first time since after Sept 11, 2001 attacks on the US.

Foreign exchange authorities from many Asian countries including Singapore and South Korea intervened to check strength in their currencies, but they moved dollar bids lower in line with overall gains in the regional units, dealers said.

Currency market players, such as exporters, did not miss out on buying emerging Asian currencies on dips that resulted from intervention.

The Federal Reserve's first-ever press conference 'appeared merely to confirm the market's view that the Fed will complete its QE2 programme and thereafter maintain ultra-loose monetary policy for the foreseeable future. For now at least, there appeared little to trouble USD bears', said Callum Henderson, global head of FX research with Standard Chartered Bank in Singapore.

Emerging Asian currencies have risen on growing appetite for higher yields, as regional policymakers fight inflation amid economic fundamentals that are stronger than elsewhere. Abundant global liquidity also helped them as investors have piled into Asian stocks and bonds.

Investors appeared long on regional currencies against the dollar, but they saw little risks of massive dollar short-covering for the moment. More gains in Asian currencies may come slowly on intervention and given market positions, some dealers said.

Seoul warned that it may impose fresh capital controls after data showed short-term foreign borrowing in March jumped the most in 27 months amid expectations for further gains in the won.

The won strengthened to as firm as 1,071.0 per dollar in Seoul, the strongest since August 2008. The foreign exchange authorities were spotted buying dollars to stem gains in the South Korean currency.

The rupiah hit a seven-year high against the dollar with strong follow-through demand for Indonesia's new dollar bond. The central bank was spotted buying dollars, initially from 8,600 up to 8,610, but pulled back its intervention lines.

Central banks of Singapore and Malaysia were spotted buying dollars to slow down strength in their currencies, which were seen as more overbought than others. The Monetary Authority of Singapore was spotted buying the US dollar from S$1.2280, but the Singapore dollar strengthened to as firm as S$1.2250. -- Reuters


Source/转贴/Extract/:www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:29/04/11

Analyst sees STI dent if PAP margin slides

Business Times - 29 Apr 2011


Analyst sees STI dent if PAP margin slides

By JAMIE LEE

(SINGAPORE) Sell first and ask questions later - that's how foreign investors may react to a freak election result, noted a brief report by AmFraser Securities this week.

The brokerage expects the benchmark index to slump by as much as 15 per cent, or to about 2,750 points, if the People's Action Party (PAP) loses two-thirds majority. The report did not cite any historical benchmarks to back up the anticipated selldown under this circumstance.

'The market reaction could be very bearish as foreign investors likely to sell first to reassess the situation,' wrote AmFraser analyst Najeeb Jarhom, calling the freak results 'unthinkable'.

The Straits Times Index (STI) may also take a 'long time' to recover, he added.

If the share of votes held by the ruling party falls to 55 per cent, or if there is a loss of more than three GRCs, the market could still react negatively in the short term, said Mr Jarhom.

This could translate to a 150-point loss to about 3,000 points, though the recovery should be faster in this case.

But there may be no impact if a GRC is awarded to the Opposition even if that means a loss of two to three ministers, as long as heavyweight ministers retain their seats, he added.

An earlier BT analysis showed that over the past two decades, the results from Singapore's general elections have had little immediate impact on the market.

There is, however, a correlation between the benchmark index's performance a month after the elections, based on the results from the 2001 and 2006 elections, Bank of America Merrill Lynch has noted.

In the GE of 2006, when PAP's share of votes fell 14.2 per cent to 66.6 per cent, the STI fell 10 per cent in the subsequent month. And when the PAP swept 75 per cent of valid votes in 2001, the STI surged 20 per cent in the month after.

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:29/04/11

Impact of higher SGD (OCBC)

Impact of higher SGD

SGD has strengthened since mid-April.
In mid-April, the MAS re-centered its exchange rate policy band upwards but stated that it "will be re-centered below the prevailing SGD NEER". It also left unchanged the slope and the width of the NEER band. Since then, the SGDUSD exchange rate has eased off from 1.2469 in mid-April to 1.226 currently, down 1.7% in less than two weeks. OCBC Treasury Research & Strategy unit has projected that this exchange rate will decline to 1.2171 by Sep 2011 and end the year around 1.2048.

What is the impact on Singapore stocks?
We have taken a look at some of the stocks in our portfolio to assess the impact of the stronger S$ on the companies under our coverage. Fortunately, most of the big-cap stocks have some forms of natural hedges in their businesses and this will offer some kind of protection against a strengthening SGD, especially if these companies derive significant portions of their earnings in USD. Other companies have hedged their exposures to reduce their currency risks. For example, the oil and gas companies have secured numerous large contracts recently and these are mainly denominated in USD. However, we expect that the strengthening of the SGD has partially been taken into account in the negotiation process for the recent contracts and that the impact on margin from a strengthening SGD is not that significant. In addition, both KepCorp and Sembcorp Marine have some derivatives products to minimise their remaining exposure. The impact is however more apparent for companies which have exposures to a wide range of currencies and derive significant portions on their earnings from overseas including Ascott Residence Trust and CapitaLand (refer to later pages for more information).

Companies have some forms of currency protection.
Overall, we are of the view that most of the companies under our coverage are fairly well-protected against the SGD appreciation. This is carried out either via a natural business hedge (buy and sell in the same currency) or financial hedges to reduce their currencies exposure. For some, the trading and listing currencies are different and due to the strengthening of the SGD, we may need to revise down our fair value estimates slightly to account for it. As we review our list, most currency exposures are fairly limited and within an acceptable range. Going forward, we reiterate our view that earnings visibility and order flows are more critical factors and we believe that investors will weigh these factors more strongly in their investment selection criteria. We continue to have an OVERWEIGHT on the Oil & Gas, Commodity, Water, Healthcare and Telecommunication sectors.

SECTION (I) SECTOR HIGHLIGHTS
Oil and Gas Stocks
Among the oil and gas stocks under our coverage, we estimate that the biggest impact from the depreciation of the USD against the SGD would likely be Ezra Holdings, based on indications from its FY09-FY10 earnings. Ezra has exposure to foreign exchange risk as a result of transactions denominated in a currency other than the respective functional currencies, arising from charter hire income, operating expenses and borrowings and interest expenses. Though the group hedges these risks with forward contracts, assuming that the SGD strengthened 10% against the USD, Ezra's FY10 and FY09 pre-tax profit would have fallen by about 14.8% and 8.5%, respectively (Exhibit 1). However, these figures should change with the consolidation of AMC in the group's financial statements - we expect more costs to be denominated in USD, increasing the natural hedge in operations.

For the rigbuilders, revenues are denominated mainly in a mix of USD, Euro and SGD, while labour costs are predominantly in SGD. However, we believe that any expected movements in the USD/SGD exchange rate may have been partially taken into consideration during the negotiation of contracts. In addition, efficiency and productivity gains should also allay concerns of margin squeezes. We believe that Keppel Corp and Sembcorp Marine strive to achieve about 70% natural hedge in their operations, and both also use derivatives like forwards to minimise their remaining exposure. As seen from Exhibit 1, the impact of a strengthening in the SGD against the USD is not significant on FY10 and FY09 earnings.

Commodity Stocks
Commodity companies like Wilmar International Limited (WIL), Golden Agri-Resources (GAR), Noble and Olam currently present their financials in USD. While they may not suffer any translational forex impact, the continued appreciation of the SGD against the USD could (and is likely to) have a noticeable impact on fair values, even if our estimates and valuations do not change.

For investors, the stronger SGD could also have a negative impact on dividends (especially if they are based on a fixed payout ratio), as it would "erode" the amount received in SGD.

Food & Beverage Stocks
Under our coverage are BreadTalk and Viz Branz, and both have currency translation risk exposure arising from net investment in foreign operations. However, both do not hedge their positions as their investments are considered to be long-term in nature. BreadTalk has net investments in foreign operations in Malaysia, China, Hong Kong and Thailand while Viz Branz has net investments in foreign operations in China, Vietnam and Thailand.

Both companies do not hedge their positions due to the use of "natural hedging", and any loss resulting from an appreciation in the SGD against the relevant currencies will mainly be translation losses. The impact on both companies is deemed to be negligible. We have a BUY rating on BreadTalk with a fair value of S$0.74 and a HOLD rating on Viz Branz with a fair value of S$0.30.

SECTION (II): COMPANY HIGHLIGHTS
Ascott Residence Trust [BUY, Fair Value S$1.34]
Among the 25 listed S-REITs, Ascott Residence Trust (ART) has the most international exposure and is thus most affected by the continuous strength in the SGD. Gross revenue is collected in the local currency that its assets are based, except for Vietnam where USD is taken as payment instead. ART is therefore susceptible to currency risk when it needs to convert those currencies back to SGD for distributions to unitholders. According to its 1Q11 results, Euro, GBP and USD constituted 21%, 13% and 16% of ART's gross revenue respectively. In addition, ART presently does not employ any currency swaps to hedge against FOREX risk. With the projected weakening of USD, Euro, and GBP against SGD going forward, ART's revenue may be further affected in the subsequent quarters of FY11.

Biosensors International Group [BUY, Fair Value S$1.48]
Biosensors International Group (BIG) is exposed to foreign exchange risk arising from various currency exposures, primarily to USD, SGD and EUR. Hence it seeks to carry out 'natural hedging' by utilising its proceeds of a certain currency for operational needs in the same currency. BIG does not use derivative forward contracts for hedging purposes.

For FY09, a 6% strengthening of the SGD against USD would cause its net loss to be 6.2% lower; while the same scenario for FY10 would cause its net profit to decline by 6.8%. Moreover, as BIG's reporting currency is in USD, an appreciation of SGD against USD would have a negative impact on our fair value estimate, keeping other variables constant. We currently have a BUY rating on the stock with a fair value estimate of S$1.48.

CapitaLand [BUY, Fair Value S$4.05]
CapitaLand (CAPL) derives an estimated 60% of its EBIT from sources outside of Singapore. It has substantial presence in residential development and mall and serviced residences management in China, Australia, Europe and other Asian countries. In particular, management is focused on expansion in China and aims to have 45% of total assets in China in the next three to five years.

As much as possible, CAPL maintains a natural hedge by borrowing in the currency that matches the revenue stream to be generated from its investments. To hedge currency risk, it also uses forward exchange contracts with maturities from 3 months to 5 years. As of Dec 2010, management estimates that a five percentage point weakening in foreign currencies against the SGD would decrease the profit before tax (PBT) by $33.8m or 1.8% for FY10 (PBT to decrease by $42.1m or 3.8% for FY09). This takes in account outstanding forward exchange rates and assumes interest rates stay constant.

CapitaMalls Asia [BUY, Fair Value S$2.15]
CapitaMalls Asia (CMA) currently derives an estimated 30% of its EBIT from outside Singapore. It is focused on mall management and has 73 out of 92 malls located outside of Singapore, of which 53 are in China. In the course of its operations, CMA has exposure to the USD, RMB, HKD, MYR and JPY and management attempts to maintain a natural hedge, whenever possible, by borrowing in the currency of the property or investment that matches the future revenue stream.

We find CMA's earnings to be particularly sensitive to the SGD/MYR exchange rate. For FY10, if the SGD had strengthened five percentage points against the MYR, earnings would have been reduced by $10.8m or 2.5%. In FY09, a five percent strengthening would reduce earnings by S$7.8m or 2.0%. We believe the scenario to be similar in FY11.

First REIT [BUY, Fair Value S$0.80]
The strengthening SGD has minimal impact on First REIT (FREIT) because of the structure of its master leases. For its Indonesian properties acquired before 2010, the master leases are fixed at a rental rate of SGD1 = IDR5623.50. For the two Indonesian hospitals acquired last Dec, the rental income is also locked at a fixed rate of SGD1=IDR6600 for the full tenure of the master lease. Hence, FREIT's sponsor PT Lippo Kawaraci, which is the operator of its hospitals, bears all the risks and uncertainty of currency fluctuations.

Goodpack Ltd [Under Review]
Goodpack Ltd (GPACK) presents its financials in US dollars as its revenue stream is primarily denominated in US dollars. It utilizes foreign currency forward contracts to hedge itself against foreign currency fluctuations as it is exposed to foreign currency risk exposure from SGD, Euro and US dollar denominated sales and purchases. The forward contracts have maturities of 12 months and are used to partially hedge the net exposure to foreign currency movements.

With the hedges, assuming a 10% appreciation of the SGD, this would result in a 2.0% drop in 2009 pre-tax profit and a 1.7% drop in 2010 pre-tax profit. As such, the impact on GPACK is fairly insignificant. For its other foreign subsidiaries where assets are exposed to currency translation losses in the event of a SGD appreciation, GPACK seeks to utilize "natural hedges" by matching assets and liabilities to limit foreign currency translation risk.

Karin Technology [BUY, Fair Value S$0.315]
Karin Technology's (Karin) functional and reporting currency is mainly in HKD. Its exposure to market risk for changes in foreign currency exchange rate relates primarily to certain trade receivables and payables and certain cash and equivalents which are not denominated in HKD. While approximately 50% of its sales are invoiced in USD, this is mitigated partly by 85% of its purchases being in USD as well. Moreover, its reporting currency is the HKD and this is pegged to the USD. Karin uses derivative financial instruments such as forward currency contracts to manage its foreign currency risk.

Nevertheless, as Karin's reporting currency is in HKD, an appreciation of SGD against HKD would have a negative impact on our fair value estimate, keeping other variables constant.

Micro-Mechanics Holdings [BUY, Fair Value S$0.67]
Micro-Mechanics Holdings' (MMH) foreign currency exposure relates primarily to its USD denominated trade receivables and payables, especially for its Custom Machining and Assembly (CMA) business segment whereby US is the main market.

For FY10, 19.9% of its topline came from the US (23.4% in FY09), but we believe that ~50% of its sales are transacted in USD. While MMH has no formal hedging policy, it seeks to minimise its foreign currency exposure by matching assets and liabilities of the same currency as far as possible. It has also been negotiating with its customers to be billed in local currency. For FY09 and FY10, a 10% strengthening of the SGD against USD would cause its net profit to decline by 33.1% and 4.8%, respectively.

Midas Holdings [Under Review]
Midas Holdings' (Midas) revenue is denominated mainly in RMB and its expenses are mainly incurred in RMB. Hence Midas is not subject to significant foreign exchange exposure arising from its operations. The group also does not have a formal hedging policy with respect to its currency exposure.

Neptune Orient Lines [Under Review]
Neptune Orient Lines Ltd (NOL) presents its financials in US dollars as its revenue stream is primarily denominated in US dollars. It has foreign currency risk exposure to the British Pound, Euro, SGD and CNY, and therefore utilizes foreign currency forward contracts to hedge itself against foreign currency fluctuations against the US dollar. NOL also hedges its non-US dollar denominated exposures arising from corporate actions like dividend declarations and equity raising when they occur as well as borrowing in the same currency as its assets or investments. Based on our estimates, if the USD weakened against its major currencies, the impact on NOL's FY09 pretax earnings is around 0.3% and around 0.4-0.7% in FY10. With the hedges, foreign currency appreciation against the USD has negligible impact on NOL's profit.

OSIM International [BUY, Fair Value S$2.34]
Given OSIM International's (OSIM) global presence in many different markets, its sales are mainly denominated in the respective local currencies in which sales arise. Hence, exchange translation risks exist with the appreciation of the SGD, especially since OSIM is dependent largely on China to drive its earnings momentum. However, given the expected strengthening of the RMB, we believe this should mitigate the effects of a strong SGD. OSIM would actually be able to report a higher net profit, with all other variables held constant, if the RMB appreciates more relative to the SGD. Moreover, OSIM's products are procured from contract manufacturers and mainly in USD and JPY. Hence a strengthening of the SGD against these two currencies would enable it to report a higher income, keeping other variables constant.

Pacific Andes Resources Development [BUY, Fair Value S$0.40]
Pacific Andes Resources Development (PARD) transacts the bulk of its business in USD and since its reporting currency is in HKD, there is minimal currency exposure as the HKD is pegged to the USD. However, as its listing currency is in SGD in Singapore, and with the strengthening of the SGD against the HKD, there will be impact on our fair valuation, bringing it lower as the SGD has already appreciated some 4.7% against the HKD since the beginning of this year.

Raffles Education [HOLD, Fair Value S$0.815]
Raffles Education Corp's (REC) operations are predominantly in Singapore, China, South-east Asia and Australia. It manages its exchange rate risks by matching, as far as possible, receipts and payments in each individual currency. REC believes that its exposure to currency risk is not significant as its entities transact substantially in their respective currencies.

Raffles Medical Group [BUY, S$2.45]
Raffles Medical Group (RMG) stated that its net exposure to currency fluctuation is kept to an acceptable level and the group does not have significant currency risks. However, there could be some indirect impact of a stronger SGD. A strengthening SGD might impede medical travelers from seeking treatment in Singapore as the cost of treatment would be relatively higher. Foreign patients currently form approximately a third of RMG's patients. Nevertheless, we opine that RMG remains an attractive destination for the wealthy medical tourists, given the relatively inelastic demand for healthcare services, coupled with the quality and complexity of procedures offered.

Singapore Airport Terminal Services [Under Review]
Singapore Airport Terminal Services (SATS) owns several overseas subsidiaries and is therefore exposed to foreign currency fluctuations against the SGD. Although SATS currently does not utilize any forward contracts to hedge its foreign currency exposure, effects of foreign currency fluctuations are deemed to be not significant by management.

SATS employs a "natural hedge" where sales and purchases are mainly denominated in the respective functional currencies of its entities i.e. British pound, US dollar, Euro, HK dollar etc. Based on our estimates, the impact of a strengthening in the SGD against the USD is not significant on FY10 and FY09 earnings resulting in 0.8% and 0.05% change in pretax profits respectively (based on a 5% appreciation of the SGD).

SMRT Corporation [Under Review]
SMRT Corporation (SMRT) has foreign currency risk exposure to the British Pound, Euro, SGD and USD, and therefore utilizes foreign currency forward contracts to partially hedge against foreign currency fluctuations. It only enters into such contracts with maturities of less than 12 months. Based on our estimates, a 10% appreciation of the SGD would translate into a 0.3% and a 0.8% change in FY09 and FY10 earnings. With the hedges, foreign currency appreciation against the USD has negligible impact on SMRT's profit before tax.

Valuetronics Holdings Limited [BUY, Fair Value S$0.47]
Most of Valuetronics Holdings' (VHL) business transactions, assets and liabilities are principally denominated in USD, HKD and RMB, while its reporting currency is in HKD. Many of its major clients are also headquartered in the US, hence a large proportion of its sales are denominated in USD. There could also be timing differences between invoicing and payment, resulting in further exposure to currency fluctuations. The group does not have a foreign currency hedging policy in respect of foreign currency transactions. As VHL's reporting currency is in HKD, an appreciation of SGD against HKD would have a negative impact on our fair value estimate, keeping other variables constant.

Venture Corp [BUY, Fair Value S$12.10]
Venture Corp (VMS) primarily transacts in USD when it bills its customers, and while the group is doing its utmost to achieve a "natural hedge" by also paying off its suppliers in USD, we note that VMS can still have an exposure of up to 30% to the greenback. And because the bulk of its sales is transacted in USD, the continued appreciation of the SGD - the reporting currency - can (and will) also result in the group posting "weaker" revenue numbers. As such, the bulk of the forex losses are mainly due to "translation", which cannot be hedged, but fortunately is unrealized.


Source/转贴/Extract/:
Publish date:29/04/11
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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