Saturday, April 9, 2011

產業泡沫與銀行呆賬

Created 04/09/2011 - 14:14

產業泡沫是讓銀行體系甚為擔心的事,看看之前次貸危機,以及後來的全球金融危機,的確是很讓人擔心的事。

為何說產業對我們整個經濟周期如此重要,那是因為房屋是大多數家庭單一最大的投資;對公司來說,除了存貨,產業及固定資產往往是最重要的資產,特別是可以用來向銀行貸款的抵押品。

對銀行而言,用作最大單一承擔銀行信貸的資產就是產業,對地方政府來說,產業的銷售及產業稅組成最重要的稅收來源;因此,大多數人將屋價的蓬勃,視為繁榮的指標,多數的產業發展商希望能說服政府,確保產業價格不會出現通縮狀況。

令人意外的是,經濟學家似乎常忽略產業資產負債的價值,直到他們察覺時已經太遲,美國產業的實際價值佔美國國內生產總值的225%,產業價格只需下跌20%,就足以抹掉大約45%的國內生產總值,成為美國史上最深化的危機。

當美國監管單位最終決定緊密關注美國銀行體系的信貸狀況,才發現美國銀行體系總信貸的一半與產業貸款有關,特別是通過抵押或抵押證券作為後盾。

今年3月10日,聯邦儲備局發表去年第四季美國基金數據流量,顯示產業的資產佔家庭總資產的25.7%或18.2兆美元。

在2006至2007這兩年,產業的價值跌減6兆美元、2009年1.2兆美元,到了去首半年開始復甦;不過,去年全年,資產價值跌減0.6兆美元,家庭貸款總值比2007年高峰水平少7.9兆美元。

美國非金融企業領域的情況也一樣,產業資產佔總資產的25.6%,比2007年的高峰水平減少2.4兆美元或26%,去年的商業產業保持穩定;不過,有關數據沒有完整顯示在銀行的呆賬。

根據聯邦存款保險機構對國會做出的聽證,提供產業貸款的銀行,特別是涉及商業產業收購、發展與建築貸款失策的銀行數目,他們之間有明確的聯繫;在2005至2008年之間,發展與建築貸款顯著增加75%,這類貸款佔資本總額的比率,從2000年的佔資本總額的26%,提高至2007年第3季的50%。

另外,發放出去的貸款迅速變成壞賬,在2006及2007年釋出的次貸款,超過半數在2010年11月成為違約貸款,在2009年拍賣的抵押貸款達到280萬美元,2010年則超過200萬美元。

截至2009年杪,聯邦存款保險機構承擔銀行持有的非經常建築貸款,從1.45%提高至25.7%,由於產業領域的壞賬,322家聯邦存款保險機構在2008年陷入困境(這類機構大約有7千770家),另外860家銀行被列入“問題機構”。這些陷困機構,主要是因為涉足發展與建築貸款、商業或住宅產業貸款的比率偏高。

在截至2010年9月,標準普爾/Case-Shiller房屋指數顯示下跌2%,至於商用產業貸款顯示取得3%漲幅,不過,商用產業的租金仍在下跌。

有關當局採取量化寬鬆政策,似乎有助於推動產業價格上揚,不過,產業的實際價格仍未大幅上升,這意味假如產業價格繼續走下坡,銀行體系將保持脆弱。

產業為銀行首要抵押資產

為何產業對銀行的賬簿如此重要?主要的原因是產業為首要的抵押資產,證券化與金融衍生產品旨在對衝這些資產,當首要資產的價格下跌,金融衍生資產的價值,由於對衝的關係,在倍增的效應下開始下跌。

英國金融服務局主席杜納在康橋大學發表演講時指出,巴賽爾lll改革方案,足以確保全球金融的穩定。他說,在經濟與金融體系中,債券與證券合約之間的平衡、以及期滿的更新,是金融體系風險的根基所在。

有一點他肯定正確,就是“金融的不穩定,是因為人類思維的欠缺理性,以及較差的獎掖所造成,為確保金融的穩定,需要在監管方面有持續性的進展。

美國金融危機調查委員會也認同,人為的失策,是導致金融危機發生的主因,市場“自行調整”在思維上的失策,造成金融監管條文比較“傾向市場”。

利率偏低造成資產泡沫的形成,中央銀行不可能一再否定,在資產泡沫形成這方面,他們完全沒有責任。

從日本的經驗,我們看到產業的好景及泡沫爆破,有一段漫長的地緣周期,在人口的成長階段,產業價格會增長;不過,當人口逐漸老化,產業價格出現通縮,假如存在資產泡沫,會造成龐大虧損。

你可能無法完全阻止泡沫,不過,可以肯定的是,會有阻止銀行過度借貸的工具。


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Source/转贴/Extract/:biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:09/04/11

In Reits we trust?

Business Times - 09 Apr 2011

SHOW ME THE MONEY
In Reits we trust?

A report card on the performance of various types of trusts listed in Singapore shows that Reits remain the best bets

By TEH HOOI LING
SENIOR CORRESPONDENT

A FEW weeks back, I was having dinner with some colleagues, one of whom is from The Straits Times when a colleague from Lianhe Zaobao walked past. We started chatting, and the topic naturally veered towards the stock market, given that we are all business writers.

The Straits Times colleague asked the Zaobao colleague what she thought of Hutchison Port Holdings (HPH), whose initial public offering was about to close then. Instead of directly answering the question, the Zaobao colleague said: 'CitySpring is now trading at half its IPO price!'

The Straits Times colleague interpreted the comment as negative for HPH. 'She's saying don't buy, that the new IPO may suffer a similar fate as that of CitySpring,' he said. Then, our marketing colleague sheepishly admitted that he has CitySpring in his portfolio. I didn't own up at the time, but I too had CitySpring languishing somewhere in my portfolio.

The conversation set me thinking. Has CitySpring done that badly if we take into consideration all the dividends paid out since its IPO?

How about the other investment trusts? We've had a number of property investment trusts, shipping trusts and business trusts listed on the Singapore Exchange. In general, how have they done since IPO, in absolute terms, and relative to the broad market movement?

So I decided to find out. Basically, I obtained from Bloomberg the total return for each of the trust relative to their IPO price. Bloomberg assumes that all dividends received are reinvested back into the security.

Also, the Bloomberg program can only calculate total return up to a certain number of days. So, for Reits that were listed before 2005, I had to switch to the weekly return numbers. Hence, the returns for Reits such as Ascendas, CapitaMall, CapitaCommercial, Suntec and Fortune are calculated based on the closing price on the first Friday after they started trading, and not the IPO price.

Here's what I found. Of all the various types of trusts, the real estate investment trust (Reit) has been the most successful. The performance of shipping trusts and other forms of business trusts have generally been rather dismal.

And among the Reits, those with Singapore-based properties have on the whole performed better than those with overseas properties.

So which has been the most successful Reit to date? Excluding those with trading records of less than one year, CDL Hospitality Trust appears to be the star. Since July 18, 2006, it has returned 225 per cent to its unitholders. That's an equivalent of 28.5 per cent a year, and it outperformed the FTSE Straits Times All Shares Index by a whopping 198 percentage points during that period.

First Reit, which owns hospitals and hotels in Indonesia and Singapore, is the second-best performer with a return of 20 per cent a year. Both were listed in 2006.

The first batch of Reits to hit the market also fared well. Ascendas Reit rewarded investors with return in excess of 17 per cent a year since 2002 - that's a near 10-year record. CapitaMall Trust, meanwhile, returned 16 per cent a year, outpacing the general market by more than 170 percentage points.

Earning the dubious honour as the worst Reit to have listed on the Singapore Exchange is Saizen, which owns residential properties in Japan. It is now 78 per cent below its IPO price, and after taking into consideration its distribution, investors have seen their capital getting shaved by 33 per cent a year since November 2007. It underperformed the general market by 66 percentage points.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial Reit, formerly known as MacarthurCook Industrial Reit, is the second-worst Reit. It has lost 72 per cent of its share price, or the equivalent of 17 per cent a year after dividend since 2007. It trailed the general market by 37 percentage points.

The median return of all the Reits listed on SGX since their IPOs up till end-March 2011 is 8.9 per cent a year. That's a return not to be sniffed at. Reits which bombed tended to have high gearing, so that's a good metric to start one's screening process.

As at this week, the average yield for all the Reits listed in Singapore is 7 per cent. There's a website - http://reitdata.com/ - which provides a comprehensive and updated listing of all the reits and business trusts in Singapore.

Meanwhile, the performance of the other two types of trusts - shipping and business or infrastructure trusts - leaves very much to be desired. On average, the three shipping trusts - Pacific Shipping Trust, FSL Trust and Rickmers - have seen their unit price slumped by 56 per cent since their IPO. Only the distributions from Pacific Shipping Trust has more than made up for the capital loss.

Investors who bought into Pacific Shipping Trust are still better off than leaving their money in the bank, or buying into the general Singapore market. The trust returned 7.43 per cent a year since May 2006. It outperformed the FTSE All Shares Index by 17.5 percentage points.

No such luck for holders of FSL and Rickmers. Investors in the two suffered a loss of 14 per cent and 20 per cent a year respectively since 2007 when they were listed.

As for the other business trusts, the performance in general has also been lacklustre. The average annual return is -18.9 per cent a year. The average is dragged down by Indiabulls Properties Investment Trust which has seen its unit price slump 70 per cent since its listing in July 2008. The best performer in this category is Ascendas India Trust - with an annual return of 2.3 per cent a year since 2007.

What about CitySpring? Well, what do you know - after taking in all its distributions, investors are actually up by 1.4 per cent a year. That's an outperformance of 14.5 per cent over the FTSE All Shares Index between February 2007 and end-March 2011.

From the report card above, on the whole, it appears that of the various types of trusts, Reits remain the best bets. There seems to be a lot more uncertainties associated with the other forms of trusts.


The writer is a CFA charterholder
Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:09/04/11

Saizen may get rating boost on clearing defaulted debt

Business Times - 09 Apr 2011


Saizen may get rating boost on clearing defaulted debt

By LYNN KAN

SAIZEN Reit's corporate family rating is up for a possible upgrade to positive by Moody's following its plans to repay a loan that went into maturity default in November 2009.

'The repayment plan is a positive action in resolving the defaulted commercial mortgaged-backed-securities loan of YK Shintoku,' said Moody's senior vice-president Philipp Lotter.

The manager of the purely Japanese Reit play said on Wednesday that the 4.2 billion yen (S$62 million) outstanding loan balance under its YK Shintoku portfolio can be repaid by the end of May this year.

The loan had been in default due to the collapse of the commercial mortgage-backed securities market in Japan in 2008. Since then, Saizen has been repaying the loan from its operational cash flow and the sale of its property assets.

Moody's last revised Saizen's Caa1 corporate family rating in June 2010 from negative to stable.

In this review of Saizen Reit's outlook, Moody's will consider Saizen's credit profile after the loan repayment, its ability to access funding and the extent of damage the Japanese earthquake and tsunami has wreaked on Saizen's Japanese properties.

Moody's observed that after the defaulted YK Shintoku loan is settled, the next material debt of 5.7 billion yen would mature in 2013.

'Moody's estimates that Saizen has unencumbered assets of around 11.5 billion yen which are available to repay the YK Shintoku loan and other maturing debts,' it said yesterday.

Saizen Reit's manager laid out a repayment schedule that spans across three instalments, mostly through cash, but also through proceeds raised from property sales under three portfolios: YK Shintoku, YK Shingen or YK Keizan.

Saizen's first repayment of at least two billion yen will be in cash on April 11. Between April 12 and May 30, there will be a repayment of about 800 million yen from property sales proceeds. Saizen will repay the difference - about 1.4 billion yen - with internal resources.

The Saizen Reit counter closed trading unchanged at 15 cents yesterday.



Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:09/04/11

Theedge Weekend Comment April 8: CityDev rated a Buy by CLSA

ALTHOUGH THE SINGAPORE residential market has been dampened by several policy measures with the most recent announced on Jan 13, CLSA has upgraded City Developments to a buy in a 100-page property report dated Apr 7. According to property analyst Pang Chin Hong, despite 44% of its revalued Gross Asset Value (GAV) coming from Singapore residential properties, “a substantial portion is pre-sold,” he says. Another 25% and 12% of GAV come from the office space and hospitality sector respectively.

The strongest driver for City Developments is likely to come from the divestment of its commercial property portfolio, Pang says. Last year, the company divested several older commercial properties such as The Corporate Building, The Corporate Office and Chinatown Point. In 2005, the company had planned to sell 11 properties to Suntec REIT for $788 million but the deal fell through. “We believe that CDL will continue asset divestment this year as the group is shifting its focus toward a higher-quality portfolio as evidenced by the South Beach development, 9 Tampines Grande and 11 Tampines Concourse,” Pang writes.

What could City Developments sell? At this stage, it’s unlikely to be Republic Plaza which Pang has revalued at $2.2 billion. Instead, lower-grade properties such as City House, Fuji Xerox Towers, Central Mall, Katong Shopping Mall, some strata units in Tanglin Shopping Centre, The Arcade, Palais Renaissance, Delfi Orchard, units in GB Building, Fortune Centre, Sunshine Plaza and Plaza by the Park are possible candidates for divestment. Pang reckons these properties are worth a further $2.2 billion. Tanglin Shopping Centre, worth $105 million, has been put up for a collective sale but market observers note there are so far no takers. Sunshine Plaza is also believed to have been up for sale for a while.



Nonetheless, Pang is optimistic that City Developments can realise good gains if it manages to sell these assets. The developer does not revalue properties unlike other companies. Investment properties are carried at historical cost plus accumulated depreciation. Pang reasons that the carrying book values of these properties are likely to be much lower than their true value and City Developments could rake in a capital gain of $1 billion if it can find buyers for such a diverse portfolio.

“This presents a key catalyst for City Developments’ share price in 2011. With interest in commercial properties on the rise, we would not be surprised to hear of aggressive offers,” Pang writes. He has a target of $14.31 for the stock against his RNAV (Revised Net Asset Value) estimate of $16.84.

Back on the residential front, City Developments’ mass-market project, H2O Residences, which saw a takeup rate of 27% during the first weekend launch on March 5, is to have drawn mediocre response so far. Also, only 21 of the 56 units released in the 226-unit The Residences at W on Sentosa Cove have been sold. City Developments says it doesn’t plan to launch any more units in the near term. At a results briefing in Feb, chairman Kwek Leng Beng says he can afford to hang on to the units because he has holding power.

CHART VIEW: FUNDS INFLOW
With the STI closing 2.1% higher for the week at 3,187, the rally is likely to bump into resistance as it approaches 3,200. Still, the benchmark managed to move above the still declining 100-day moving average at 3,138. The 21-day RSI continues to rise and stochastics is at the top end of its range but could start to peak next week (Apr 11-15).

In an Apr 8 report, Markus Rosgen, strategist at Citi Research, says emerging markets had inflows of US$5.7 billion ($7.2 billion) or 0.8% of AUM (Assets Under Management), more than twice the levels of the previous week, and the largest amount since mid-October. Flows were focused on Global Emerging Market funds, accounting for nearly 70% of the total inflows into emerging market equities. Asia ex-Japan equity funds saw inflows of US$1.1 billion compared to US$400 million from the previous week.

“Flows broadened from regional funds to country funds, with China and Korea being the winners,” Rosgen writes. “China and Korea country funds took in US$356 million and US$310 million for the week, respectively.” For China, this is the biggest weekly inflow since late November last year; while for Korea, the weekly flows represented the biggest size ever in available history. “On the other hand, Singapore and Taiwan were the losers -- both saw outflows for the week, albeit mild,” he adds.



Source/转贴/Extract/: www.theedgesingapore.com
Publish date:08/04/11

分析员:澳暂闭门户 新交所进退两难

虽然澳大利亚财长斯万拒绝新交所的献议时表示,新加坡政府在新交所所持的23%股权,并不是他做出决定所考虑的一个因素,但分析员认为,澳洲已暂时关闭门户,新交所或其他投资者即使修改献议再度尝试收购澳交所,也将不得其门而入。

  而这使到新交所进退维谷,要在亚洲寻找并购伙伴相当困难;欧美交易所也将因为新交所的高昂估价,而对收购新交所意兴阑珊。

  路透社报道,斯万昨日正式拒绝新交所的献议时表示,这是一项接管,结果是澳洲金融业将成为亚洲一个竞争者的子公司。这显而易见是有违澳洲的国家利益。他担心澳交所成为新交所的子公司后,澳洲将失去对结算系统的控制。

  斯万因此表示澳洲金融体系面对改革。他已经要求金融业监管者的理事会研究改革金融体系,以便未来面对其他交易所的收购时能保护发行者(挂牌公司)和投资者。

  分析员因此相信,这可能造成澳交所将被逼分拆出一些系统。而外资收购澳交所的大门,会在澳洲改革其金融体系后才可能打开。

  斯万说:“我仍然欢迎适合澳洲的交易。这是为什么我要求澳洲管制者的理事会研究,如果有新的申请(并购献议),我们如何继续确保澳洲金融体系的力量和稳定性。”

  彭博社报道,斯万不愿猜测新交所修订献议重新申请的可能。他说:“我无法猜测新交所或任何人未来的任何申请,而我也不打算这么做。”

对收购新交所

欧美意兴阑珊

不过,路透社报道指出,新交所已经进退维谷。新交所首席执行长博可很难在亚洲寻找到合并伙伴,因为亚洲政府不愿把国家资产卖出。欧美的交易所也将因为新交所的高估价,而对收购新交所意兴阑珊。
  欧美交易所的股票估价分别是11.1倍和13.3倍预测本益比,而新交所则是19倍。而且,任何投资者要持有新交所5%或更高的股权,必须获得金融管理局的批准。

  安本资产管理公司的一位高级投资经理表示,日益上涨的国家主义情绪将继续是跨国界交易的主要路障。

  分析员和一些交易所较早时已表示,亚洲交易所的跨国界合并面对着艰巨的挑战,得克服严格的管制制度、复杂的拥有权结构以及各地政府的保护主义思想。

  金英控股(Kim Eng)的分析员高靖益受询时认为:“新交所应继续寻找其他增长途径,这可能是与澳交所在其他层次的合作、与其他交易所设立更多交叉挂牌平台、或者吸引更多的区域公司到新加坡挂牌。”

  另一方面,斯万昨日指出,澳大利亚外国投资审核委员会对这个交易的反对,出人意料的强烈。“这不是该委员会一贯的态度。”澳洲储备银行、澳洲证券与投资委员会也都对该交易达成后的治理问题表示关注。

  澳洲在野的自由党影子内阁财长霍基认为,斯万应该全面披露决定拒绝售卖澳交所背后所根据的信息。他说:“这个决定看来是早已作出的,只不过是一直在寻找一些理由。财长的行为只会加深外国投资者对澳洲主权风险的担忧。”

  澳洲竞争与消费者理事会在去年12月已考虑过这个合并献议,并表示不会反对。它认为新交所在股票交易市场和结算方面,并没有与澳交所竞争。它是在与市场参与者广泛的咨询之后做出的决定。


Source/转贴/Extract/: 《联合早报》
Publish date:09/04/11

Rising commodity prices ? boon or bane?

The Star Online > Business
Saturday April 9, 2011

Rising commodity prices ? boon or bane?

By CECILIA KOK
cecilia_kok@thestar.com.my

THANKS to good foresight, careful planning and precise execution, K.S. Lim, a 60-year-old agriculturist based in Segamat, Johor, has been laughing all the way to the bank.

He sometimes likens his new-found fortune to striking the lottery not in the literal sense, but, Lim says, his strategy of switching from being just a fruit planter to planting agricultural commodities about eight years ago has clearly worked out very well for him and his family.

“It has not been an easy transition due to the apprehension of some of my family members towards venturing into unfamiliar grounds' and the fact that we have to wait for several years before we can reap the harvest' adds more pressure due to the temporary disruption of our family income,” explains Lim. He had then owned a nine-acre fruit farmland which has since been turned into a mixture of rubber and oil palm plantations.

“Well, we are reaping the harvest' now. Not to be mistaken, we're not considered rich by any measure, but my family income has definitely improved significantly over the last few years; not only because our plantations have been bearing good fruits, but also because of the trend of rising commodity prices,” he says.

Some of Lim's peers in the village, who have followed in his footsteps and ventured into plantation of agricultural commodities about a decade ago, have also been experiencing the same fortune. Theirs is a testament that many local planters are indeed benefiting from the rising prices of agricultural commodities.

But the agricultural commodity boom is just part of the larger picture of what's happening in the wider commodities markets, goods of which include the more crucial crude oil, and other mineral resources such as coal and precious metals such as gold and silver, as well as grains such as rice, wheat and soybeans.


Prospects for further gains remain

The prospects of a further rally of the various commodity prices remain high, given the uncertainties surrounding the global economy, partly due to the mounting political crisis in the oil-producing regions of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), which could lead to further rise in crude oil prices.

“If crude oil prices remain elevated for a prolonged period, it will definitely have implications on the prices of other commodities and the global economy as well,” says Affin Investment Bank chief economist Alan Tan.

At present, many analysts and economists still find it difficult to quantify the impact of the ongoing political unrest in MENA on global crude oil prices. But they have not discounted the possibility of it surpassing its previous record high of US$147 per barrel on fears of supply disruption; and under such scenario, they say, prices of all other commodities would be expected to keep rising as well.

“Commodity prices at present are dictated by rapidly developing events in MENA,” RAM Holdings Bhd economist Jason Fong explains.

While he acknowledges the difficulty in quantifying those events, Fong says he thinks the events in MENA could just be transitory, and when they are resolved, crude oil supply conditions could normalise, and that could help ease the pressure on the prices of other commodities.

Crude oil currently trades within the band of US$105 and US$110 per barrel on the Nymex, up from US$85.88 per barrel a year ago and US$91.55 per barrel in the beginning of 2011.

While the political uprising in MENA is widely viewed as key to the direction of global crude oil prices in the near term, some economists argue that if developed economies were to embark on further quantitative easing, there would be even more pressure on the prices of the commodity to rise further.

For instance, they point out that there is still the possibility of the US Federal Reserve embarking on a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) after its QE2 expires this summer, even though the chances of that happening are still remote at this juncture.

As it is, the earlier rounds of QE measures by developed economies such as the United States and Japan during the onslaught of the global financial crisis have already unleashed a massive amount of money into the system. And a huge chunk of these monies has managed to find its way into global assets and commodity markets, leading to the inflated prices of stocks and various commodities, as we've seen over the past one year.

Undoubtedly, there is also a fundamental factor driving up the prices of commodities that is of supply and demand. Global population growth and the rebound of key economies from the global financial crisis as well as the rapid development of several emerging economies such as China are some of the factors contributing to rising demand for commodities.

Supplies, however, have not been keeping pace. By and large, there is limited scope for capacity expansion due in part to the scarcity of natural resources and land near developed areas such as ports. Supplies have also been perceived to be tight because of seasonal factors, poor weather conditions and natural disasters, which have temporarily disrupted output at some producing countries.

There is generally a strong belief among punters that global commodities demand will continue to outstrip supply over the longer term, and hence drive up their prices.

Such belief is what's drawing investors like Jim Rogers to put their money on commodities. Ever the bull on commodities, especially agricultural produce and precious metals, Rogers is betting on a prolonged boom for the global commodities market.

For Malaysia, a commodity-and-natural resources-rich economy, but one that is still dependent on external demand to drive growth, persistently high commodity prices may present both good and unfavourable news.


Benefits from the rise

Rising global commodity prices will benefit local industries and companies whose businesses deal with commodities such as crude palm oil (CPO) and crude oil. Like agricultural commodity planter Lim, these groups will definitely see a significant improvement in their incomes.

From the macro perspective, Malaysia can expect to see strong earnings coming from its exports of commodities, provided there is no significant drop in volume.

Commodities generally account for around 30% of Malaysia's export earnings each month. Key items include CPO, rubber, crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG).

According to data released by the Statistics Department over the week, commodities turned out to be one of the major drivers of export growth in February, and that was partly attributable to their skyrocketing prices. The overall export growth of 10.7% year-on-year (yoy), compared with a growth of 4.6% yoy in the preceding month, beat markets' expectation by quite a wide margin many were expecting to see only a 5% yoy gain.

Earnings from palm oil exports grew 21.9% yoy, despite a decline in volume. This was due to the significant rise of about 48% yoy in the average CPO prices to around RM3,800 per tonne during the month. Earnings from LNG exports and refined petroleum products also rose, by 27% yoy and 65.4% yoy, respectively.

Earnings from exports of electrical and electronic (E&E) products, which generally account for 40% of the country's total exports, grew 7.5% yoy.

MIDF Research chief economist Anthony Dass, in his report, says the continually high commodity prices, especially that of CPO and crude oil, suggest that Malaysia's export earnings from the category in March would continue to show robust performance.

This could possibly help sustain the healthy trade surpluses that Malaysia has been enjoying all this while, especially in anticipation of weakness in the exports of E&E products in the months to come. This is due mainly to the aftermath of the earthquake and tsunami that hit Japan last month.

Malaysia registered its 160th consecutive month of trade surpluses in February, with net earnings from trade growing 8.3% yoy to RM12.6bil. Net earnings from trade are an important source of growth for Malaysia's economy, contributing around 10% to 15% to the country's gross domestic product (GDP) each year.

Income booster?

The soaring prices of crude oil commodity will usually boost the total revenue of the Government. This is because the Government earns around 40% of its total revenue from petroleum resources, mainly through direct taxes and royalties from national oil company Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas).

At current price levels, the oil and gas industry is already buzzing with activities. More projects are expected to be in the pipeline, and this will definitely create more job opportunities for individuals in the process, and the Government will likely be able to extract more income from the sector.

But the actual amount the Government could derive from this source depends on the sector's earnings.

Petronas paid RM30bil in dividends to the Government last year. That is the legacy amount the national oil company has been paying the Government in recent years.

But last month, Petronas chief Datuk Shamsul Azhar Abbas said the company had intentions to revise lower its annual dividends to the Government, stating that it could not afford to maintain such a high payout ratio for long.

This is because the company had plans to increase its capital expenditure substantially to replace ageing plant and machinery and to search for new oil reserves in the coming years. In fact, an allocation of RM280bil over the next five years has already been earmarked for that purpose. That amount works out to about RM55bil annually, which is substantially higher than the RM40bil capex for its fiscal year ended March 2011.


Party will not last

Given the fact that Malaysia is a heavily subsidised economy, any increase in oil revenue for the Government will likely be offset by higher spending on subsidies that it currently provides for various goods, especially fuel and foodstuff.

“The nation's subsidy bill is highly correlated to global crude oil prices. This is largely because food prices, the other major component related to subsidies, follow a similar trend with global energy prices,” RAM's Fong says.

The Government may have a rationalisation scheme in place to reduce its spending on subsidies as part of its fiscal consolidation plan. But with inflationary pressure rapidly rising, the Government would likely pause the measure to minimise the effects of rising prices on local consumers.

Under the Budget 2011, the Government has allocated RM10.3bil as subsidies for fuel based on the assumption that crude oil prices would average at US$85 per barrel. But current crude oil prices are already much higher by now.

According to RAM, without any drastic subsidy-reduction, oil prices at US$110 to US$120 per barrel would result in a total subsidy expenditure of around RM34.3bil, or 4% of GDP, in 2011. The baseline scenario envisages a deficit impact of around RM6.7bil, which implies a fiscal deterioration of 0.8-percentage points to 6.2% of GDP, compared with the targeted 5.4% under Budget 2011.

Economists like Wan Suhaimi Saidi Kenanga Investment Research concur that it could be difficult for the Government to keep to its targeted fiscal-reduction programme this year unless drastic actions are taken.

“The Government's revenue may increase as a result of the rising crude oil prices, but the benefit it could derive from the sector has to be net of its expenditure on subsidies, and we also have to take into consideration the fact that Petronas has already signalled its intention to reduce dividend payout to the Government,” he explains.

Last year, the Government's fiscal deficit stood at RM43.3bil or 5.6% of GDP. It was an improvement from the 2009's fiscal deficit of RM47.4bil or 7% of GDP, thanks in part to its subsidy rationalisation programme.

Under the 10th Malaysia Plan, the target is to reduce the Government's fiscal deficit to 3%-4% of GDP by 2015.

“The Government should now look even more seriously into other drastic ways to reduce its deficit plug the leakages (corruption) and cut down on unnecessary spending,” an economist says.

“Subsidy scheme still has to be reformed as the present blanket' system is not necessarily a sensible approach. Any form of assistance meant for the people has to be more targeted at helping the poor and vulnerable household, especially at current times of high inflation,” he says.


A roadblock to growth?

Concerns are already growing over the impact of high commodity prices, especially that of crude oil, on the recovery process of several key economies, most of which are also major trading partners of Malaysia.

Rising commodity prices are already pushing global inflation higher, and many of these economies, including the United States and the Eurozone, are not spared. With a still-fragile recovery, prolonged high commodity prices could dampen consumer spending in those regions, and hence, their economic growth, and this could ultimately reduce their demand for Malaysia's products.

“Malaysia is an open economy; any slowdown in the economies of its major trading partners would affect its growth through external demand,” Affin's Tan explains.

According to RAM's estimate, the recovery of major advanced economies is inversely related to energy prices, such that industrial activity would probably face a form of production stagnation if crude oil prices become “sticky” at above the US$140 per barrel level.

The impact on Malaysia's growth will therefore depend on how well advanced economies navigate their recovery process amid high energy prices, Fong says.

Earlier reports by CIMB Research said that a US$10 rise in crude oil prices could dampen Malaysia's GDP growth by 0.5 percentage point through both direct and indirect channels because of the vulnerability of its major trading partners to high crude oil prices.

That's another downside of persistently high commodity prices to Malaysia's economy. It seems economic management will likely become an even more complicated affair in the days ahead; hence it is crucial that policymakers continue to keep their focus right, economists say.

Source/转贴/Extract/: The Star Online
Publish date:09/04/11

SGX eyes organic growth after Aussie snub

Exchange ends bid for ASX after Australian Treasurer rejects deal on national interest
by Jo-Ann Huang Limin
04:47 AM Apr 09, 2011
SINGAPORE - The Singapore Exchange (SGX) said it would continue to pursue organic as well as other strategic growth opportunities, including further dialogue with Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) on other forms of co-operation, after the Australian government on Friday officially shot down the Singapore bourse's A$8.4 billion (S$11.1 billion) proposed takeover of its rival.

Mr James Koh, an analyst at Kim Eng Securities, said: "The SGX management will continue to look for other growth initiatives, which could come in the form of cooperation on other levels with ASX, set up more cross-listing platforms with other exchanges or attract a deeper pool of regional companies to list in Singapore."

The Singapore bourse had also said Asia will remain the world's growth engine in the coming decades and SGX, as the Asian gateway, is well-positioned to leverage on opportunities within the region's vibrant and dynamic economies.

Still, Australia's rejection puts SGX chief Magnus Bocker in a bind because he will struggle to find future merger partners in Asia due to the reluctance of governments to sell national assets. Analysts and exchange officials have said tough regulatory regimes, cumbersome ownership structures and protectionist minded governments make consolidation of bourses harder in Asia.

Meanwhile, SGX's hefty valuation is an obstacle for Western exchanges to launch a takeover bid, analysts said. A recent UBS research note estimated that European bourses are trading at an average of 11.1 times 2012 earnings and American exchanges at 13.3 times, both sharply lower than SGX's 19 times. On Friday, SGX terminated its bid for ASX after the Australian government formally prohibited - under the Foreign Acquisitions and Takeovers Act - the proposal on national interest grounds.

"In these circumstances, the parties (SGX and ASX) have agreed to mutually terminate the Merger Implementation Agreement entered into on 25 October 2010," SGX said in a statement.

Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan said on Friday "it was a no-brainer that this deal is not in Australia's national interest".

The ASX "operates infrastructure that is critically important for the orderly and stable operation of Australia's capital markets," he said.

"Not having full regulatory sovereignty over the ASX-SGX holding company would present material risks and supervisory issues impacting on the effective regulation of the ASX's operations, particularly its clearing and settlement functions," he added.

Mr Swan also said he was concerned that Australian capital and jobs would move to Singapore and rejected the argument that the deal would provide a gateway to Asian capital flows.

He said that SGX's offer would have to be "substantially and fundamentally altered" for him to reach another conclusion. Analysts said that by putting national pride ahead of rational decision-making, Australia may deter foreign firms from investing in its assets.

Mr Albert Fong, president of The Society of Remisiers (Singapore) said: "I find it rather amusing that they may lose their trading system. They have an established system - I think that is one of the selling points that SGX wanted to buy them over for. It is a system that has been set up for many years and I don't think SGX may want to disrupt or dismantle the system overnight."

Before the deal was dismissed, some stockbrokers in Singapore were looking forward to the opportunity of trading commodity and resources stocks in ASX.

Mr Fong said, "Traders would be very excited if they could trade conveniently commodities stocks, resources stocks, mining sectors and material sectors. If it could be done here through our screens, it is so much more convenient."

Still, analysts said the failed merger could be a blessing in disguise for SGX. Research houses have issued "buy" calls since Tuesday, turning bullish after Australia's Foreign Investment Review Board stated then that Mr Swan was "disposed" towards rejecting the deal.

The stock has more potential to grow now that the pressure of what was seen as an overpriced takeover has been lifted, they said.

CIMB economist Song Seng Wun said; "Australia has now rejected the merger and SGX share prices have recovered nicely. On the Australian side, shares fell in response to the rejection which therefore shows that they saw value in the deal.

SGX shares rose 2.8 per cent to close at S$8.38 on Friday, while ASX shares fell 0.45 per cent to close at A$33.33.

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.todayonline.com
Publish date:09/04/11

Friday, April 8, 2011

Muhibbah engineering a comeback

Muhibbah engineering a comeback

Muhibbah Engineering (RM1.71), a former darling of investors, is set to make a major comeback as it puts the cost overruns of its overseas projects behind and gears up for the next phase of growth.

The company has a diversified earnings base which includes infrastructure construction, cranes, shipyard, as well as concession income from airport and road maintenance.

It will benefit from the ramp-up in construction of projects such as the Klang Valley’s Mass Rapid Transit system, as well as a slew of property developments on privatised state-owned land, such as the 3,300 acre Rubber Research Institute (RRI) land in Sungai Buloh.

The focus on the oil and gas (O&G) sector will serve it well as the government allocates more spending under the Economic Transformation Programme (ETP), and with national oil giant Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) planning to spend RM250 billion in capital expenditure over the next five years.

Cost overruns hit profit in 2008/09
Muhibbah was a favourite of investors in 2005/06, when the then low-profile company saw its share price surge as investors, especially foreign funds, warmed up to its growth prospects, attractive fundamentals and low starting valuations. The company had positioned itself as a global construction and infrastructure player and an Indochina play.

Muhibbah secured a number of large domestic and international contracts, which boosted its order book from RM810 million in 2005 to a peak of RM4.31 billion in 2008. As a result, net profit rose nine-fold from RM7.8 million in 2004 to RM70.1 million in 2007.

But the aggressive growth came at a price. The sharp rise in building material prices just before the global financial crisis and cost overruns at its Yemen LNG project caused losses in 2008 and 2009 for the core infrastructure and construction division, although the company remained profitable.

Net profit declined from RM70.1 million in 2007 to RM21.8 million in 2008 and RM12.7 million in 2009. Its share price slumped, exacerbated by the global crisis and the exit of foreign shareholders. We understand its foreign shareholding stood at about 40% at its peak but has since fallen to below 10%.

Rebuilding order book with better quality projects
After spending much of the last two years on a “kitchen sinking” exercise and completing its less lucrative projects, Muhibbah is now well positioned for the next phase of growth and is rebuilding its order book with better quality projects.

The results were already evident, with net profit for 2010 increasing 2.6-fold to RM33.8 million, driven by a turnaround in the infrastructure construction division, which returned to the black with a pre-tax profit of RM5.17 million, compared with operating losses of RM65.4 million in 2009.

On Jan 26, Muhibbah, in consortium with Perunding Ranhill Worley Sdn Bhd, was awarded the RM1.07 billion contract by Petronas Gas Bhd for the engineering, procurement, construction, installation and commissioning for the LNG Regasification Unit of the LNG Regasification Project in Melaka.

Construction will begin in April, and is expected to be completed by end-July 2012. We understand Muhibbah’s portion of the project is worth RM480 million.

Among the major outstanding contracts in Muhibbah’s order book are the South Klang Valley Expressway (RM581 million outstanding order book), catering facility at the new Doha International Airport (RM509 million), Asia Petroleum Hub (APH), Johor (RM817 million contract, outstanding order book: RM183 million), Offshore Marine Centre at Tuas South Avenue 8, Singapore (RM121 million) and government offices at Putrajaya (RM206 million).

As at Feb 22 Muhibbah’s outstanding order book totalled RM3.1 billion, comprising RM2.29 billion from infrastructure construction, RM453 million from cranes and RM360 million from shipyard. About 49% of the total order book is related to the O&G industry.

Meanwhile, a likely resolution of longstanding issues surrounding the APH project in Johor, for which Muhibbah has been owed some RM340 million since mid-2009 for works completed but not paid for, could also lift sentiment on the stock. The sums owed are listed as receivables and have not been written down.

Growth to pick up pace in 2011/12
We expect Muhibbah’s growth momentum to accelerate in 2011 and 2012 as its loss-making overseas projects give way to more profitable ones and as order book replenishment gets underway. We expect net profit to increase 46.3% to RM49.5 million in 2011 and 19.9% to RM59.3 million in 2012, with earnings per share of 12.4 sen and 14.9 sen respectively.

At RM1.71, Muhibbah is trading at an attractive price-earnings ratio of 13.8 times for 2011 and 11.5 times for 2012 and a modest 1.3 times its book value of RM1.28 as at December 2010. Its valuations are far lower than the major construction players, such Gamuda Bhd and IJM Corp, which trade at 20 to 21 times forward earnings, and WCT Bhd which trades at 15 times.

Rising crane earnings and margins
Muhibbah’s crane division, Favelle Favco, has been performing well since going public in August 2006. Favelle has turned around nicely in recent years, charting decent revenue growth and much faster bottom line expansion due to higher margins from earlier internal restructuring to reduce costs, improve efficiency and penetrate new markets.

Favelle currently has four plants — in Senawang, Malaysia; Sydney, Australia; Copenhagen, Denmark; and Texas, US. About 82% of its sales are generated from overseas markets.

Favelle has been focusing more on the O&G industry, such as offshore cranes used in the industry. The O&G industry accounts for 64% of its RM453 million order book.

Operating profit for the division rose from RM17.6 million in 2005 to RM17.6 million in 2006, RM28.9 million in 2007 and increased even during the recent global crisis — to RM32.2 million in 2008 and RM39.6 million in 2009. Operating margins improved from 4.2% in 2005 to 7.4% in 2009.

Steady contributions from concessions
Muhibbah’s concessions consist of stakes in airport operations in Cambodia (under 30%-owned Societe Concessionaire des Aeroports, or SCA) and a 21% stake in Roadcare (M) Sdn Bhd, which holds a 15-year concession for the maintenance of 6,000km of federal roads in Selangor, Pahang, Kelantan and Terengganu.

The Cambodian airport operations are held by 30%-owned SCA with the remaining 70% held by French construction conglomerate Vinci. SCA was awarded the concession for the international airport in Phnom Penh in 1995 and Siem Reap in 2001.

Both concessions were originally scheduled to end in 2020, but have since been extended to 2040 following the award in 2006 of a third international airport in Sihanoukville.

The airport operations enjoy steady income, reflecting the increasing popularity of Cambodia as a tourist attraction with new direct flights, low-cost flights and the increasing popularity of the world-famous Angkor Wat temples, a Unesco World Heritage site.

In 2008/09, however, tourism arrivals into Cambodia fell due to the global financial crisis, H1N1 influenza scare and Thailand’s airport closures and political uncertainties, which disrupted travel to the Indochina region for long-haul tourists.

Passenger arrivals into the two airports fell 11.8% to 2.843 million in 2009 from 3.224 million in 2008, and 3.331 million in 2007.

With the economic recovery, the end of the H1N1 outbreak and easing uncertainties in Thailand, airport arrivals have rebounded strongly by 17% in 2010, from 2.843 million to 3.316 million passengers. Growth at Siem Reap was up 27% to 1.597 million passengers, while Phnom Penh’s airport saw an 8% growth to 1.719 million passengers.

The Sihanoukville International Airport, its third airport concession, has opened to private planes and charter flights, but full commercial operations for scheduled flights has not started due to a lack of quality accommodation in Sihanoukville, as hotels are still being built.

Sihanoukville is Cambodia’s only deep-sea port and a major beach resort town. It houses many of Cambodia’s industries (garment is the biggest industry in Cambodia), as well as an emerging O&G industry in the Gulf of Thailand. With enhanced air transport links, Sihanoukville will be promoted as a major beach resort and industry base.

Higher spending for O&G augurs well for shipyard
Muhibbah’s shipyard division, under Muhibbah Marine Engineering Sdn Bhd (MME) has enjoyed steady growth despite the shipbuilding industry’s volatility. Operating profit has increased steadily from RM7.6 million in 2005 to RM58.2 million in 2009, while revenue rose from RM67.1 million to RM296.2 million in that period.

MME benefited from the rise in demand for marine vessels used in the O&G industry, such as anchor handling tug and supply vessels, due to high oil prices. While the environment of high oil prices leading up to 2008 saw a large number of orders, the subsequent global credit crunch and fears of overcapacity have driven down charter rates and reduced demand for new ships.

It currently has an order book of RM360 million, down from RM702 million in 2009 as a result of a slowdown in orders due to overcapacity of marine vessels from major expansions prior to the 2008 global financial crisis.

Going forward, MME is expected to ride on the current strong price of crude oil, which should lead to increased production and exploration activities. Petronas is planning to spend RM250 billion in capex over the next five years and the government’s thrust on the O&G sector under the ETP should auger well.

MME’s shipyard is located on 8.58ha in Telok Gong, next to the South Port in Port Klang, with the possibility of adding another adjacent 20.2ha. It has approximately 850m of water frontage and water depth of up to 18m.

The company offers shipbuilding, ship repair and ship conversion services. It is active in the construction of anchor handling tugboats and supply vessels for the O&G industry, where it is capable of constructing vessels of up to 120m long with 10,000 deadweight tonnage and 12,000 brake horsepower. MME traditionally delivers about six to seven vessels per year.


Note: This report is brought to you by Asia Analytica Sdn Bhd, a licensed investment adviser. Please exercise your own judgment or seek professional advice for your specific investment needs. We are not responsible for your investment decisions. Our shareholders, directors and employees may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned.


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, April 8, 2011.

Source/转贴/Extract/: Theedgemalaysia.com
Publish date:08/4/11

Aviation Services (KE)

Event
International air travel has taken a beating in the past couple of months. Air passenger and freight volume continued to fall MoM in February 2011 from their post-recession peaks in August 2010. The Japanese earthquake and tsunami will likely depress March data even further. Data by Changi Airport reflects the international trend but the impact has been more muted. While we do not expect SATS and SIA Engineering to be unaffected, air travel should recover after a few months of adjustment. We maintain our HOLD calls on both stocks.

Our View
International air travel has taken a beating in the past couple of months on the back of civil and military conflicts in Africa and the Middle East, and natural disasters in Asia. The governments of Tunisia and Egypt collapsed in January and February, respectively, while severe unrest was also experienced in Bahrain and Yemen. As a result, international air passenger and freight volume fell further in February since reaching a post-recession peak last August. The Japanese earthquake and tsunami on 11 March will likely further depress data for that month. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), passenger traffic rose 6% YoY in February this year (a slower rate than January’s 8.4%) but fell 1.1% MoM, with African markets declining the most severely. In total, passenger traffic has fallen by about 25% from the peak last August. Freight volume was hit even worse, up by only 2.3% YoY internationally but down 4.4% MoM. However, this is likely to have been distorted by the fact that Chinese New Year started on 3 February this year, compared to 14 February last year.

At the moment, most forecasts suggest the growth of the world economy will not be derailed by the Japanese crisis. If so, air travel may continue to show grow this year, albeit after several months of volatile data. Locally, the impact has been more muted. The number of passengers at Changi Airport rose 9% YoY in February, faster than globally, while flights handled have held up at growth rates the same as a year ago. The only bumpy spot is in air freight, which fell 2% YoY, the first month of YoY decline since September 2009.

Action & Recommendation
The fall in passenger and cargo volume may impact the 4QFY Mar11 results for SATS more so than for SIA Engineering given the slope of the MoM slowdown for passenger and air freight. A sustained fallout from Japan’s nuclear crisis could also hit TFK’s revenues and bottomline. On balance however, air travel should recover following a few months of adjustment. We therefore maintain our HOLD calls on both stocks.

Source/转贴/Extract/: Kim Eng Research
Publish date:08/04/11

新加坡大选会影响股市吗?

通常政治事件对股市的影响非常短暂,而且心理因素多于实质因素,尤其对新加坡本土情况来说,大选对股市的作用更是微乎甚微。

回顾上一次大选发生在2006年5月6日,是新加坡举办的第十次大选。追求民主化,新加坡政府大选每五年举办一次。一般预测,来届大选将在今年5月或6月举行。 值得一提的是,新加坡选举时的做法是民主的,也是全民参与的盛大活动。选举权是强制性的,任何新加坡公民若放弃选举,将失去公民福利。 大选结果公布的一刻,受短期心理影响,股市势必将走入一些小“调整”。投资者、投机者、股票市场操作人,包括黑池交易员和高速交易员,全都做好准备,评估和审视新加坡大选结果所产生的效应。 然而,从过去来看,大选对股市的影响很渺小。在新加坡早期的大选中,反对党拥有动摇执政党——人民行动党(PAP)的能力。现在行动党已经发展成为坚不可摧的“航空母舰”。也就是说,大选预计不会对新加坡股市带来实质的影响。



此外,大选结果对股市的影响也不明显,反而是国际政治、经济大事对新加坡股市的影响更值得注意。从历史角度来看,大选对股市的影响也是极为短暂,微乎其微,甚至忽略不计的。


历届大选并没有明显影响股市变化的迹象,充其量这种影响只是一种短期行为,而且心理方面所产生的情绪变化可能大于实质的波动。

除去大选的因素,纵观2011年股市,的确有很多大事能够左右股市前行,这些或许才是投资者需关注,花精力深研的,毕竟2011年是一个充满“风险”和“机会”的年头。 所谓股市前景充满风险,包括了“国际政治风险”和“经济风险”两大类。国际政治风险包括:“第三次世界大战的爆发”、“地域性危机”、“国家内部问题”。经济风险则包括:“美国与他国之间的贸易战”、“进口税、商品税和强制税”、“各国对货币汇率和货币事务的干预”、“各国的货币改革”以及“恶性通货膨胀与紧缩”等等。 风险与挑战虽然并存,股市前景中也不乏获益的良机,包括:“股市从货币危机中受益”、“股市从恶性通货膨胀中受益”、“房地产市场蓬勃发展的机遇”、“投资者对抗经济危机进行自我保护”。

——风险——

“第三次世界大战的爆发?”照目前的情况看来,全球爆发核战的可能性很小,但韩朝两国的小冲突可能仍然不断。其它国家也许受到鼓动而形成势力冲突,但全面战争爆发的可能性不大。联合国似乎不会采取任何行动和制裁,因为中国和俄罗斯都会投否决票。如果中国和美国不插手,韩国随时可能入侵朝鲜,铲除其独裁者。但根据目前的状况,任何入侵犯朝鲜的举动,都会引发中、美冲突,因此超级大国们料不会允许南北方战争的大规模发生。不过,朝鲜半岛紧张局势每一次矛盾如果升级,亚太股市也会相对受损。 “欧债危机仍未结束”  虽然欧元区暂时平稳渡过2011年首次融资高峰,市场对欧债危机的担忧情绪有所减轻,但PIIGS五国(葡萄牙、爱尔兰、意大利、希腊和西班牙)融资成本仍在攀升,欧债危机并未结束。 回顾2010年希腊与爱尔兰引发的两轮欧债危机,目前欧元区内部结构性问题仍未解决,一方面是成员国之间经济实力差距较大,二是欧元区财政与货币政策结构不平衡。短期来看,PIIGS五国流动性风险相对较强,2011年欧债危机走向面临较大考验,风险远未消除。接下来,欧债危机的忧虑与恐慌的升级,也许是全球股市暴跌的诱因。 另外,地域性风险也来自其他国家与公司利用欧元结算的汇率风险;中东国家种族与宗教冲突风险,这些风险对航空股,航运股,和贸易、旅游相关股票带来不利。

“美国与他国之间的贸易战”美国贸易保护主义遭到各国反对,比如,对于钢铁和其它原材料,只要美国拥有的,即使价格再高昂,美国也限制从其它国家进口。 中国也向西方国家提高个别稀土( rare earth)产品的出口关税,美国对稀有金属需求尤其旺盛,广泛应用于电子制造业和高科技产品制造业等,自然受到的打击最大,美日欧近期甚至出现结盟逼迫中国扩大稀土出口的局面。 频频语出惊人的维基解密(WikiLeaks)网站,不断给国际外交造成尴尬局面,影响国家外交关系,并有潜在可能导致贸易协定的取消。

“进口税、商品税和强制税”美国对其进口的制造业产品征收过重关税,尤其针对中国进口的产品,导致中国相关产业陷入泥沼。 澳洲近期也增加了“商品税(commodity tax)”,应用于海外公司对在澳洲采集矿藏资源的利用方面,其他国家也采用类似的增税,用于保护本国矿藏资源,限制利用。

“国家当局对货币汇率和货币事务的干预”美国催促中国让人民币升值,因此美国可以在制造业商品方面与中国竞争,挽救美国高达10%的失业率。如果中国不配合,美国将实行定量宽松政策(Quantitative Easing)让美元继续贬值。

“恶性通货膨胀与紧缩”各国政府都在努力寻找措施,保障本国人民生活成本的可负担性。飞速上涨的物价,加重了国民生活压力,大众情绪若得不到安抚,将给社会和谐带来潜在威胁。各国政府都把主要精力放在控制物价,房价,股票价格和所有资产价格等方面。

——机会——

“股市从货币危机中受益”当一国货币疲软或者贬值,上市公司如果拥有该国货币债务,或发行以该国货币命名的债券将从中获益。(比如海外房产信托和债券);反之,若上市公司持有大量该国现金货币,或持有大量以该国货币命名的债券,将很显然受到损失。

“股市从恶性通货膨胀中受益”房地产股、高资产股,商品和矿业股将从高通膨中获益;现金充盈的股票则受损。

“房地产市场”新加坡房地产市场在通过多轮上下波动之后,再处于价格记录高位。新加坡人对房地产的投资需求始终处于上涨,现金继续失去价值。但要切记,投资房地产的高借贷最终会让房地产价格垮台,遭遇如同美国在2007年发生的惨剧。 综合以上观点,涉及风险的因素似乎比市场存在的机会来得多,这意味着,2011年的股市不会是扶摇直上的,大起大落的趋势必定重现。在此,建议投资者尽量减少银行借贷,特别是在2011年,因为低利率的趋势最终会扭转而渐渐走强。另外,投资者如果在商品,期货和衍生品市场进行投机活动,必须要在全球市场环境下,而不是与交易者,或衍生品的发售人等投机者进行再投机。最后,投资者在2011年做投资时,一定要准备一套预防风险产生的后备方案,用来对抗最坏的情况发生,也就是说,别把现金全部套用在一项金融工具或资产上,分散投资应是今年的投资主题。

刘选烈(Charlie Lau Suan Liat)大华彰显(UOB Kayhian),资深交易代表sllau@uobkayhian.com


Source/转贴/Extract/: 时代财智
Publish date:08/04/11

欧美印钞救市近尾声

2011/04/08 5:39:30 PM
●南洋商报

(法兰克福8日讯)过去三年半来,西方国家中央银行为因应金融危机与经济衰退而祭出非常态的货币政策。

但欧洲央行7日升息显示,随着信贷危机缓和,西方央行正开始着手让货币政策正常化。

欧洲央行如预期调升基准利率0.25%,也为掌管G4集团准备货币(美元、欧元、英镑和日元)的其他三国央行铺路。

G4国家对全球货币供应与流动性构成极大影响力。

随着欧洲央行升息脚步,英国央行可能在今夏跟进,美国联储局也可望在年底前调升利率,宣告印钞票救市的过渡时期结束。

日本此刻或许正加快印钞票模式,但极可能是因应震灾的一时性举动,随着灾后重建稳定扎根,日本很快将修正做法。

货币政策正常化

全球通货膨胀压力遽增,能源与食物价格飙涨,加上今年第一季全球经济成长率经年化后达到4%,显然支持接下来应该采取货币紧缩政策,或至少停止继续挹注救急金的论点。

欧美若停止印钞票救市,也不再将利率维持在接近零的历史低点,可能带动新兴经济体的货币政策正常化。

经济过热恐会引发资产泡沫与汇价暴涨的恐惧,也迫使新兴经济体反制欧美的量化宽松,但许多国家避免升息,而是倾向采行控管通胀的量化紧缩政策。

但对仍然笼罩在债信危机阴影下的欧洲国家而言,许多人认为欧洲央行这次聚焦抗通胀,却再次忽略了延烧中的金融问题。

欧元区主权债信危机未歇,边陲国家严峻缩减开支,这次升息对这些国家福祸难料。

Source/转贴/Extract/: 南洋商报
Publish date:08/04/11

一號反應堆燃料棒損 70%今晨注氮氣阻氫爆

蘋果日報 - 2011-04-08 - 一號反應堆燃料棒損 70%今晨注氮氣阻氫爆




一號反應堆燃料棒損 70%
今晨注氮氣阻氫爆

東京電力公司在制止輻射水外洩後,昨天凌晨向福島第一核電廠 1號反應堆注入氮氣,阻止高溫而不穩定的反應堆再發生氫氣爆炸。

日本原子能保安院承認向反應堆注入氮氣存在風險,可能將輻射水蒸汽釋出大氣,政府一早已將核電廠方圓 20公里的居民疏散,並考慮擴大疏散範圍,但強調與注入氮氣無關。

美國核能監管委員會指,福島核電廠 2號反應堆爐心可能受損,令熔化的輻射物質可能洩漏到反應堆鋼製壓力缸,甚至漏到阻隔外殼的底部,跟混凝土產生互動化學作用,產生一氧化碳和氫氣,可能引起氫爆,意味問題­比預期中嚴重。

東電強調注入氮氣只是阻止有關危機爆發。東電指 1號和 2號反應堆分別有 70%和 30%燃料棒可能受損, 3號反應堆則有 25%燃料棒受損。

除核輻射需 30年

儘管福島核電廠方圓 80公里內的輻射量大幅減少,聯合國核輻射影響科學委員會指,福島核事故對環境的影響介乎三哩島和切爾諾貝爾核災難之間,因為放射性碘已散佈全世界。專家指要全面清除核輻­射,至少要 30年時間。

美聯社/路透社/美國《紐約時報》

Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:08/04/11

日本再傳7.4強震 核廠灌氮氣防氫爆

日本再傳7.4強震 核廠灌氮氣防氫爆 2011.04.08



為避免氫氣濃度過高,和氧起化學反應產生爆炸,日本東京電力公司昨將氮氣注入福島第一核電廠1號反應爐。同時鄰國南韓濟州島測出微量輻射物質,後雖證實並非來自福島核電廠­,但南韓部分地區因擔心「輻射雨」影響孩童健康,至少130所學校宣布停課。


Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:08/04/11

大馬商場獲外資垂青‧傳李嘉誠5億標3商場

Created 04/08/2011 - 18:30

(吉隆坡8日訊)市場消息指出,香港首富李嘉誠正透過旗下的長江集團,展開收購大馬3家購物商場的行動,據稱交易價訂在5億令吉,分析員認為,李嘉誠的這項收購行動,將促使大馬的商場成為市場焦點,不排除一些已“陳舊”的商場將東效西顰,尋求外資賣主的垂青。

由於大馬房地產比較香港、台灣、新加坡等地,價格還是普遍偏低,因此開始吸引有意投資亞洲產業外資的注目,特別是香港和新加坡的投資者。

李嘉誠去年已經始進駐大馬商場市場;趙世曾也在吉隆坡有建案。

新加坡嘉德持有
金河、綠野、檳城合您

分析員說,除了李嘉誠,新加坡的嘉德置地(Capital Land)也在大馬市場非常活躍,包括旗下的嘉德商托(CMMT, 5180, 主板產業投資信托組)在馬股上市,並持有金河廣場、綠野購物中心及檳城合您廣場。

傳言被李嘉誠看中的3家購物商場包括怡保百利廣場(Ipoh Parade)、芙蓉百利廣場(Seremban Parade)及巴生百利廣場(Klang Parade),並由德國TMW亞洲產業基金持有。

李嘉誠去年7億
購滿家樂第一及甲Aeon Bandaraya

這已不是他首次“看中”大馬的地產,去年他已透過ARA亞洲金龍基金以總值7億1千萬令吉,收購“滿家樂第一”(1MK)及馬六甲Aeon Bandaraya廣場。

據悉,“滿家樂第一”是以3億3千300萬令吉天價脫售予長江集團,刷新滿家樂產業市場的紀錄。“滿家樂第一”主要結合購物中心和辦公樓。

TMW亞洲產業基是在2005年透過競標,以3億4千令吉攫取上述3家購物商場,但目前有意脫售,其中脫售計劃的競標活動已在3月8日結束。

商場翻新費龐大

志必得證券研究主管馮廷秀認為,目前國內的購物商場所取得的投資回酬並不高,但商場的裝修及翻修費用卻非常龐大,所以在無計可施的情況下,唯有脫手。

“一般上,已有一些時日的商場都需要翻修,以增加顧客流量,但在租金回酬低的困境下,商場持有者唯有選擇脫售予肯接手的買主。”

據瞭解,長江集團已成為競標活動的領跑者。消息人士透露,長江集團的獻購價是“打敗”其他兩家上市公司的出價,而成功出線。

惟目前無法掌握長江集團是直接參與競標,或是透過其在大馬的聯盟基金夥伴。不過,長江集團是通過大馬第一信托(AMFIRST, 5120, 主板產業投資信托組)的聯盟夥伴ARA亞洲金龍基金進行競標訂價。

長江集團負責管理大馬第一信托在國內的一些業務。

芙蓉百利廣場、怡保百利廣場及巴生百利廣場各擁有31萬7千、59萬4千及69萬6千平方呎空間。

國際產業顧問公司Rahim & Co受委為這項脫售計劃的獨家代理,以處理競標事項。不過,該公司董事經理洪羅拔受詢時不願針對此脫售案作出評論。

李嘉誠被喻為“香港超人”,主要是擁有非凡的交易能力,而他持有的長江集團更是香港其中一個最大的發展商,同時也擁有全球最大的貨運港口。

本地投資者
傾向建新商場

馮廷秀認為,國內商場脫售予本地投資者的可能性不大,主要是因為很少本地投資者可以承擔龐大的交易額,加上現有的發展商比較傾向建造新的商場。

“除非是本地非掛牌公司,可能會考慮收購舊商場,之後再納入投資產業信托(REITs),否則都是由外資接手。”

同時,他提到,像香港及新加坡這類擁有大量資金盈餘的市場,都會在區域其他市場尋求投資機會,包括大馬,作為投資組合的一部份。

馮廷秀說,隨國內的辦公室因供過於求而導致走勢趨緩,購物廣場卻提供少有的收購機會,所以相信是吸引外資的重要因素之一。

大型產業股
次季有看頭

大馬整體房地產領域,次季將隨市場的強勁消息而表現出色,但中小型產業股則料“落後大市”,歸咎於資產負債表不夠擴張及在大眾市場的涉足率不足。

肯納格研究建議投資者選擇具抗跌性的產業股,如嘉德商托,因可從消費開銷復甦中受惠。不過,僅給予AXIS產業信托(AXREIT, 5106, 主板產業投資信托組)及KLCC產業(KLCCP, 5089, 主板產業組)“持有”評級,因前者的估值處於高峰,而後者可贖回可轉換非擔保債券的轉換期限不明,可能導致股票進一步不流通,且股息及股價表現欠佳。

首選股仍是實達集團(SPSETIA, 8664, 主板產業組),同時也建議“買進”怡保置地(IJMLAND, 5215, 主板產業組)及馬星集團(MAHSING, 8583, 主板產業組)。主要因為上述公司擁有龐大地庫、焦點計劃、2011年銷售目標強勁、積極的地庫增購計劃及龐大市值。

大型發展商及REITs
第四季財報符預期

肯納格指出,大型發展商及REITs的第四季財報都符合預期,但中小型產業公司的表現卻低於預期。

“實達、怡保置地及馬星的銷售成長達40至100%以上,促使未來一年的盈利水平明亮,且3年核心每股盈利複合成長寫下22至37%。”

該行提到,過去一年,發展商向新成長走廊邁進,如賽城,而積極的擴展計劃更仰賴各項籌資活動,如發售債券及進行私下配售。

首都辦公室供應過剩

“不過,吉隆坡市區的辦公室空間走勢趨軟,主要是面對供應過剩問題,相信市場要耗時兩三年才能完全吸納過剩的辦公室空間。”

受到地庫及建築原料成本上漲影響,肯納格預見發展商會進一步調高產業價格。儘管如此,買主卻不會感到抗拒,因很多市民相信產業能有效抗通膨、年輕人口龐大、誘人的利率水平(新產業可到基貸率減2.5%)及一些發展商仍給予融資優惠。

“這顯示無論是買主或發展商,皆看好房地產市場。”

該行指出,在捷運計劃帶動下,相信產業領域仍可維持活絡表現。雖然目前無法掌握首季的銷售數據,但認為大型發展商可達到預期表現。

銀行仍提供誘人借貸率

肯納格表示,儘管銀行對房貸謹慎,不過隨擁有充裕的資金作為產業融資,所以相信銀行仍可提供誘人的利率,惟根據瞭解,實達及怡保置地已停止提供融資優惠。

“發展商及銀行擔心產業市場的投機活動,將促使政府一些不利的措施,如早前的產業盈利稅。”

肯納格預期政府將在下半年實施被視為“負面”的政策及調高利率,且會感受到國際財報IFRIC的負面衝擊。

針對下週舉行的“投資大馬”大會,該行預計將帶來大馬橡膠研究機構的發展計劃,其中馬資源(MRCB, 1651, 主板建築組)料為潛在參與者。




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Source/转贴/Extract/: biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:08/04/11

Singapore Exchange ends ASX bid after Australia govt rebuff

By Michael Smith and Charmian Kok

SYDNEY/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Singapore Exchange Ltd terminated its $8 billion (4.9 billion pound) bid for Australia's ASX Ltd after the Australian government formally rejected the offer, saying changes to the country's financial systems were needed before foreigners could buy the bourse.

It was the first time the Australian government has rejected a major foreign takeover on national interest grounds since 2001 when Royal Dutch Shell's (LSE:RDSA.L) bid for Woodside Petroleum was blocked.

Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan said the deal would have diminished Australia's economic and regulatory sovereignty, presented material risks and supervisory issues due to ASX's dominance over clearing and settlement and failed to boost access to capital for Australian businesses.

"It's not the right deal for Australia if we want to enhance our links into global capital markets. It's not the right deal for Australia if we want to grow our role as a financial services hub in Asia," Swan told reporters on Friday.

Swan said he would not oppose future deals if they protected Australia's financial architecture, enhanced the country's standing as a financial services centre in Asia, boosted access to capital for Australian businesses and supported growth in high-quality financial services jobs.

Some traders and commentators in Australia however, were sceptical about the government's reasons for blocking the deal. They said concerns about the clearing and settlement system were a smokescreen for what would have been a politically-sensitive decision for the minority government, which relies on the support of independent members of parliament to support decisions.

"Defining what is 'in the national interest' in a world of increasingly free capital flows is at best difficult, or worse, a highly subjective, bordering on xenophobic, construction," said Matt Robinson, senior economist at Moody's Analytics.

Australia's shadow treasurer, Joe Hockey, accused the government of bungling the decision-making process.

"Wayne Swan has turned Australia's international reputation into that of a third-world country. His bungled decision-making process has reflected poorly on Australia in what has been a complex commercial process," Hockey said.

The proposed merger had already been cleared in December 2010 by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, which said at the time it would not oppose the bid.

The competition watchdog said then that SGX did not compete with ASX for share market trading, clearing or settlement purposes. Its decision followed extensive consultation with a range of market participants, it said.

The deal's rejection puts SGX CEO Magnus Bocker in a bind because he will struggle to find future merger partners in Asia due to the reluctance of governments to sell national assets. Takeover bids by European or U.S. exchanges are hampered by SGX's rich valuation.

"Growing nationalism on supposedly national assets would continue to be a major roadblock for cross-border deals," said Christopher Wong, a senior investment manager based in Singapore at Aberdeen Asset Management which owns both SGX and ASX shares.

Analysts and exchange officials have said tough regulatory regimes, cumbersome ownership structures and protectionist minded governments makes consolidation of bourses harder in Asia.

Wong said SGX could explore a tie-up with a developed market such as the London Stock Exchange (LSE:LSE.L) to provide the bridge for a global exchange.

But SGX's hefty valuation, due to its presence in Asia's growth market, is an obstacle for Western exchanges to launch a takeover bid, analysts said.

A recent UBS research note estimated European bourses are trading at an average of 11.1 times 2012 earnings and American exchanges at 13.3 times versus SGX's 19 times.

Another obstacle for a foreign bid is a requirement that any bidder seeking 5 percent or more of SGX needs to obtain the approval of the central bank.

Financial exchanges around the world are chasing cross-border deals to build scale and cut costs amid increasing competition from alternative trading platforms such as dark pools.

The Tokyo and Osaka exchanges are in talks, Deutsche Boerse is competing with a partnership of Nasdaq OMX Group (NasdaqGS:NDAQ) and IntercontinentalExchange to buy NYSE Euronext and the London Stock Exchange is looking to combine with Canada's TMX Group (Toronto:X.TO).

Bocker, who stitched together seven Nordic bourses to create OMX, later sold to NASDAQ (NasdaqGS:NDAQ), may have to seek partnerships and alliances instead of full-fledged mergers.

"The SGX management will continue to look for other growth initiatives, which could come in the form of cooperation on other levels with ASX, set up more cross-listing platforms with other exchanges or attract a deeper pool of regional companies to list in Singapore," said James Koh, an analyst at Kim Eng Securities in Singapore.

SGX said on Friday it would pursue other strategic growth opportunities in the region and continue talks with ASX about other forms of cooperation.

ASX said in a statement it still wanted to join the stock exchange consolidation sweeping the globe and would work with the government on any reform process.

AUSTRALIAN REFORMS

The Australian government's rejection, partly due to fears about losing control of Australia's clearing and settlement systems, effectively closes the door on SGX or any other party making a revamped offer for ASX for the time being.

With concerns focussed on clearing and settlement issues, Swan indicated the country's financial systems face an overhaul that analysts believe could result in ASX being forced to spin-off some systems.

"A lot of exchanges across the world do not own the clearing and settlement systems. There is a lot of speculation about the need for the Australian government to step in, in times of crisis. Apparently the government does not have that ability now," said Mark Nathan, portfolio manager at Arnhem Investment Management in Australia.

Swan said he was concerned Australian capital and jobs would move to Singapore under the deal and rejected suggestions the deal would provide a gateway to Asian capital flows.

However, he said Australia was not closed to other offers, provided reforms to clearing and settlement systems were carried out.

"I remain open to the right deal for Australia if it comes along. And that is of course why I have asked the council of Australian regulators to advise me on how we can continue to ensure the strength and stability of Australia's financial system if there was a fresh application."

SGX shares were trading more than 2.5 percent higher on Friday at S$8.36, while ASX shares slipped 0.4 percent to A$33.33.

Source/转贴/Extract/: yahoo.com
Publish date:08/04/11

日本7.4级强震 二死百多人伤

(联合早报网讯)7日深夜,日本宫城县发生7.4级地震。日本东北地区昨晚发生7.4级强震,紧急救援人员称,山形县和宫城县共2人死亡、约100人受伤。

  消防和灾难管理机构说,地震后停电导致山形县一名63岁妇人的呼吸机失灵,妇人因此死亡。

  该机构1名发言人说:「她的呼吸机被发现关闭,我们相信这台机器由于停电而关闭。」

  该机构又指出,宫城县有1人死亡。

  另,据日本新闻网报道,到今日上午6时(当地时间)为止,东北地区还有392万户人家处于停电状态。

  而日本的东北新干线,和东北地区的城际铁路,今日上午因为路基检查的关系,全部实施停运。

  虽然,此次7.1级地震几乎没有造成什么破坏,不过周四的地震却让还未从3月11日地震和海啸造成的惊恐中恢复过来的日本人再一次感受到了恐惧。这次的地震发生在宫城县海岸外,靠近上个月9级地震的震中。地震发生后约一小时海啸疏散警报被解除,据报道没有出现任何巨浪。

  强震发生后,日本首相菅直人也发出指示,要求全力确认受灾情况和抢救受伤人员。

  另外,据共同社报道,东京电力公司透露,7日晚发生强烈地震后,福岛第一核电站暂时未发现新的异常情况,工作人员已经避入室内,福岛第二核电站主控室也未显示异常数据。另据茨城县称,该县境内的核电站未出现异常情况。

  而东京电力早上9点(当地时间)也发表表明,今天福岛第一核电站的修复工作正常运行,并没有收到昨晚东北7级余震的影响。

  不过,7日晚的地震或带来新隐患:女川核电站和东通核电站部分外部电源停止工作,现阶段借助应急电源冷却系统仍能正常运转。

  日本原子能安全保安院则表示,7日晚地震后,位于宫城县的东北电力公司女川核电站3个外部电源中2个暂时失效,不过借助应急电源,冷却系统现阶段仍保持正常运转。此外,位于东北地区青森县六所村的乏燃料棒再处理工厂外部电源中断,现阶段已启用应急电源。

  日本首相菅直人在地震发生后立即从公邸前往官邸,随后官房长官枝野幸男、防灾担当相松本龙也陆续进入官邸,了解有关受灾情况以及对福岛第一核电站修复作业的影响。官房副长官福山哲郎和相关省厅局长级官员组成的应急小组也进入了首相官邸的危机管理中心。


Source/转贴/Extract/: 《联合早报》
Publish date:08/04/11

日本拟扩大核站疏散区

东京综合电)为可能长期接触核辐射的灾民健康着想,日本政府正考虑扩大福岛第一核电站疏散区的范围。核电站人员为防积聚在反应堆内的氢气引发爆炸,开始朝1号机组的反应堆泵入氮气。
  负责第一核电站营运的东京电力公司说,由于第1反应堆积聚了氢气(hydrogen),可能再次发生爆炸。为防万一,公司也为2号和3号机组进行注气准备。但经济产业部原子力安全保安院官员指出,核电站并不存在随时发生爆炸的风险。

  原子力安全保安院发言人渡边说,工作人员是从(本地时间)昨天0时31分开始,朝其中一个机组泵入氮气(nitrogen)。

  东电之前宣布的计划是要连续数日向1号机组泵入约6000立方公尺的氮气,以减少安全壳内的氢气与氧气比重。而2、3号机组的氮气注入作业将视安全壳内的压力情况而定。东电担心,积聚在第1机组的氢气同氧气接触会爆炸。

  专家分析,在核燃料棒冷却过程中,安全壳内的蒸气液态化,使得压力降低,空气因此会渗入。泵入氮气的目的是要替代易燃的氧气。

  核电站在震灾后,机组多次发生爆炸与火患。美国核安全局3月26日发表的报告说,福岛第一核电站可能再发生爆炸。

  报告说,反应堆释放的放射线导致用于冷却堆芯的海水分解,产生氢气,使得反应堆存在再次发生氢气爆炸的可能性。

30公里范围的居民

被劝尽量不要外出

  尽管泵入氮气的做法存在风险,但原子力安全保安院批准这个做法,以免核电站面对更大风险。该院发言人西山英彦说,泵入氮气的工作将进行六天,在这过程中会产生辐射性蒸气,但核电站半径20公里范围内的居民都已疏散。日本政府也劝请远达30公里范围的居民尽量不要外出。

日本政府正在征询专家的意见,以决定是否要扩大疏散区。但政府指出,这不意味着,释放至空气中或海水中的辐射物增加了。
  日本内阁秘书长枝野幸男在昨天的记者会上说:“我能想象,生活在可能长期接触辐射地区的人们,为此极度忧虑。”他指出:“疏散标准并未考虑到长时间积累的辐射物的作用。”他说:“我们正同专家商议,以确定要依据什么标准来衡量长时间接触辐射的祸害。”

  东电采取爆炸与火患预防措施使得公司股价的跌势稍微缓和一些,昨天市场闭市时,东电的股价升了0.9%,至每股340日元,为股价12天来首次升高。震灾后,东电的股价已跌了约84%。

  在搜寻工作方面,警方乘福岛县空中、水中和土中的辐射水平日益下降,加紧搜寻尸体,以免尸体腐烂更难辨认

Source/转贴/Extract/: 联合早报
Publish date:08/04/11

Seeing is believing (HwangDBS)

Seeing is believing
• Invest Malaysia conference next week could showcase ETP progress and new initiatives
• Oil & gas, construction and property sectors may be under the limelight
• Reiterate our FBM KLCI year-end target of 1,730 (+11% upside potential)

Passage of Implementation. This is the theme for the highprofile Invest Malaysia 2011 conference that is scheduled to be held 12-13 April. Essentially, with execution widely seen as the key risk for the government’s ambitious Economic Transformation Programme (ETP), investors will be eager to find out the latest ETP results.

The ETP roadmap was first unveiled in Mar 2010 to provide the groundwork for the New Economic Model (NEM), which is designed to propel the economy to high-income status (Fig 1). At next week’s Invest Malaysia conference, the government might offer a progress report and reaffirm its commitment to achieve the long-term goals.

Possible takeaways. To pack more punch to the plan, the government might announce more high-impact projects to generate economic activity. The sectors identified as key
growth engines include oil & gas and services. For exposure in this space, our top stock picks are KNM (Buy; TP RM3.50) and Dayang (Buy; RM3.40).

Meanwhile, there may be an update on the Greater Kuala Lumpur / Klang Valley catalyst, one of 12 National Key Economic Areas (NKEAs) under the ETP (Fig 2). Specifically, a progress report and timetable for the massive MRT project may be revealed. Gamuda (Buy; TP RM5.25) and MMC (Buy; TP RM4.05) are our construction proxies, while YTL Land (Buy; TP RM2.70) is a MRT-related property play.

And based on precedents, PM Najib Razak’s speech on Tuesday morning will be keenly watched for possible announcements of major policy changes and fresh initiatives (e.g. to drive economic momentum and combat inflation), as well as new mega listings (e.g. Felda Group subsidiaries) to attract foreign funds to Malaysia.

The successful bidder of Khazanah’s 32% stake in Pos Malaysia (Not Rated) – amid talks that DRB-Hicom (Buy; TP RM3.80), Nationwide Express (Not Rated) and Amanah REITMalaysia Pacific Corp venture (Not Rated) are the frontrunners – may also be named.

Positive Invest Malaysia (IM) effect. In the last four years when the IM conference was held, the FBM KLCI had shown a positive bias, rising by an average of 1.7% three days running up to IM and 1.4% during the IM period

Source/转贴/Extract/: HWANGDBS Vickers Research
Publish date:07/04/11

葡萄牙求援3463億‧歐債危機料暫歇

Created 04/07/2011 - 19:00

(德國‧柏林7日訊)葡萄牙決定尋求國際援助,消除籠罩在歐元區上方的不確定性陰雲,而且很有可能終止債務市場危機向其他歐洲國家蔓延。

投資者幾個月來一直認為,救援葡萄牙幾乎勢在必行,因此該國過渡政府昨日宣佈的這一消息,不太可能打擊金融市場。歐元兌美元在消息出爐後的最初幾小時幾無變動。

據歐元區的資深消息人士,預計的救援規模是600億至800億歐元(約2千597億至3千463億令吉),不會讓歐元區4千400億歐元的救援基金感到吃力,尤其是國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)也可能參與進來。根據以往的做法,IMF將提供約三分一的資金。

許多投資者將認為葡萄牙求援具有正面意義,有望避免出現最糟糕的局面。原來的最壞預期是,葡萄牙少數派政府在6月5日大選前將無所作為,拒絕求援,並為自己挖一個更大的經濟大洞。

萬一情況失控,將繼續推高葡萄牙公債收益率,並造成財政破產風險,可能導致市場開始攻擊西班牙,因西班牙被認為是歐元區下個可能出現問題的國家。

歐元區其他政府因此一直要求葡萄牙尋求援助,不過該國表明仍能聚集足夠的政治統一力量應付債務問題,1980年代IMF的撙節規定曾給該國留下不良回憶。

高盛首席歐洲經濟學家尼爾森(Erik Nielsen)稱:“這是好消息。我們一直強調,在這種利率下葡萄牙的財政不可持續。我們認為擴散到此結束。”

葡萄牙為了獲得援助,將被迫接受嚴厲的節支目標,而且何時能達成協議尚不得而知。葡萄牙總理蘇格拉底上月在最新節支計劃被議會否決後突然辭職,他的過渡政府曾表示,缺乏磋商經濟調整計劃的權力。

歐盟官員也可能不情願在6月5日選出新政府前達成協議。歐盟與愛爾蘭即將卸任的政府達成救援協議,而新政府上台後就要求變更。

不過,既然葡萄牙已經開口求援,就很有可能獲得某種過渡貸款,使之堅持到全面救援協議的達成。

葡萄牙的情況與愛爾蘭和希臘不同。愛爾蘭銀行業崩潰,已成吞噬國家資金的黑洞。希臘的逃稅與腐敗現象嚴重。而對於歐盟和IMF來說,葡萄牙的情況相對簡單。葡萄牙已經制訂了節支計劃,而且其計劃得到歐盟各國政府與IMF官員的支持。

葡萄牙有望獲更寬鬆條件

另外,歐洲也從前兩次救援行動中吸取教訓。目前決策層存在普遍共識,認為當初針對希臘與愛爾蘭的救援條款過於苛刻,限制兩國的經濟與財政,因此葡萄牙有望獲得更寬鬆的條件。

美國Dwight資管公司首席經濟策略師卡倫(Jane Caron)表示:“投資者似乎不再擔心歐元區全面爆發危機和歐元的潛在崩潰,因為他們認為現在有了相關機制,可以防止危機失控。”

多國倒債風險猶存

儘管葡萄牙紓困案或許終止了歐元區主權債務問題在區內延燒,卻未能去除體質最脆弱國家面臨的兩大風險,其一就是主權債務重組的可能,其二就是銀行業更深層次問題構成的威脅。

希臘或進行債務重組

歐元區部份高層政府官員現在首度私下承認,希臘或許無法避免進行某種形式的債務重組,儘管官員均公開否認會發生這種情況。

一些經濟分析師相信,愛爾蘭和葡萄牙可能也會步上這種後塵,不過時間或許較晚。

即便這些國家確實實行歐盟和IMF所要求的經濟及財政改革,但這股擔憂的心態可能使此3國市場融資利率維持高檔好些年。

里斯本Banco Carregosa的投資總監雷德(Joao Leite)表示,國際援助會解決葡萄牙的融資困境,但該國仍面臨棘手的任務,得因應龐大赤字、競爭力問題和疲弱的增長。

“可惜這些問題的解決方案只有長期才看得出成效。在那之前葡萄牙還得艱難前行。”


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Source/转贴/Extract/: biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:07/04/11

Water sector: China reveals more conservation measures (OCBC)

China is facing a water crisis on several fronts, including access to clean drinking water. And to tackle this issue, the Chinese government intends to spend about 10% more on water conservation projects this year, or around RMB200b, to avert a worsening water crisis. The government also hopes that it can double the current average annual investment in water conservation construction over the next 10 years. We believe that such measures will be a boon to established waste-water treatment companies like Hyflux Ltd and United Envirotech Ltd (UEL). And as most water projects are now tendered on a BOT (build-operate-transfer) model, we believe that having access to funding will give both Hyflux and UEL an edge. As such, we maintain our BUY ratings on Hyflux [S$2.41 fair value] and UEL [S$0.65 fair value].
Need to tackle China’s water crisis. China is facing a water crisis on several fronts, including access to clean drinking water. According to China’s second National Water Assessment report, 35.6% of drinking water in the PRC is not drinkable; another 25% of surface drinking water sources in 1073 cities have failed to meet the stand, while 35% of the 115 underground drinking water sources did not qualify as drinking water. Industry watchers note that one problem is due to China’s outdated water purification method as many water companies are still using basic processing steps like flocculation, precipitation, filtration and disinfection, which cannot remove organic matter and dissolved chemicals.

Increase in water conservation spending. Hence to tackle this issue, the Chinese government intends to spend about 10% more on water conservation projects this year, or around RMB200b, to avert a worsening water crisis. The government also hopes that it can double the current average annual investment in water conservation construction over the next 10 years. And to show that they are serious about tackling the water issue, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has recently released its resource conservation and environmental protection goals for 2011, with related regulations likely to be announced soon. The NDRC also plans to raise China’s waste-water treatment rate to 80% by this year.

Boon to established water treatment companies. We believe that such measures will be a boon to established waste-water treatment companies like Hyflux Ltd and United Envirotech Ltd (UEL). As a recap, Hyflux has around 44 waste-water projects (either completed or being built) there, and it has also completed the country’s largest RO (reverse osmosis) seawater desalination plant (100k m3/day capacity) in Tianjin Dagang. As for United Envirotech, it recently built Asia’s largest 100k m3/day underground MBR wastewater treatment plant in Guangzhou City; it currently operates five water treatment plants in China with a total design capacity of some 385k m3/day and is also in the process of constructing another two plants with a total design capacity of 130k m3/day.

Access to funding also an edge. And as most water projects are now tendered on a BOT (build-operate-transfer) model, we believe that having access to funding will give both Hyflux and UEL an edge. We note that Hyflux has tie-ups with Mitsui&Co, JBIC and recently Mizuho Corporate Bank; UEL has access to S$600m of credit facilities with China Merchants Bank for three years to project finance water-related investments. As such, we maintain our BUY ratings on Hyflux [S$2.41 fair value] and UEL [S$0.65 fair value].

Source/转贴/Extract/: OCBC Investment Research
Publish date:08/04/11

CMA: China mall visit – taming the wild east

We recently visited eight CMA malls in its most important growth market - China. We observe that CMA has three key operational advantages in China. First, it has the ability to leverage on its extensive tenant network to expand successful brands and tenant mixes efficiently across its malls. Secondly, CMA has demonstrated diligence and success in using asset enhancement initiatives (AEIs) to grow NPI. Finally, we believe there would be a trend of decreasing dependence on anchor tenants as CMA’s malls mature, giving it increased flexibility to rationalize anchor tenants’ rental spaces and/or raise rents. CMA also has a strong niche in China mainly focusing on “suburban malls” that serves the mid to high income segment. In our view, this is a resilient business model underpinned by the expected steady growth in China’s retail consumption and middle class population. Maintain BUY with a revised fair value of $2.17 (at parity to RNAV).
China is the key growth market. We recently visited eight CMA malls in China to review mall performances and its growth strategy. For CMA, China is the key growth market - 53 out of 92 malls in CMA’s portfolio are in China, taking up 70% of GFA and 37% of property value (on an effective basis). Moreover, CMA aims to grow its Chinese portfolio to 100 malls over three to five years.

Three key operational advantages. We observe that CMA has three key operational advantages in China. First, it has the ability to leverage on its extensive tenant network to expand successful brands and tenant mixes efficiently across its malls. This is especially effective in major cities such as Shanghai and Beijing where CMA has deep presence. Secondly, CMA has demonstrated diligence and success in using asset enhancement initiatives (AEIs) to grow its net property income (NPI). Because of its operating scale, CMA could learn quickly about what works and apply successful AEI strategies throughout its network of malls. Finally, we believe there would be a trend of decreasing dependence on anchor tenants as malls mature, giving CMA increased flexibility to rationalize anchor tenants’ rental spaces and/or raise rents, which would further boost NPI.

Strong niche in the mid-upper income segment. We think CMA has a strong niche in China; its growth strategy is mainly focused on “suburban malls” that serves the mid to high income segment, similar to the Junction 8 mall in Singapore. Unlike other mall developers operating at a similar scale like Dalian Wanda Group and Hang Lung, CMA does not develop “destination malls” fronted by luxury retailers (Louis Vuitton, Gucci etc). CMA’s malls are typically located at strategic public transportation nodes with captive residential demand and potential for retail growth, away from mature retail centers. In our view, CMA’s business model in China is a resilient one due to its focus on mid-high income segment instead of the volatile high growth-high margin luxury segment. While its downside is sheltered, CMA is poised to benefit from the expected steady growth in China’s retail consumption and middle class population.

Maintain BUY. We formalize our view that CMA has a well thought out growth strategy in China underpinned by fundamentals and significant operational advantages. We update assumptions and incorporate a new fair value of $2.00 for CapitaMall Trust (CMT). Maintain a BUY rating on CMA with a revised fair value of $2.17 (at parity to RNAV) versus $2.15 previously.

Source/转贴/Extract/: OCBC Investment Research
Publish date:07/04/11

金錢爆(油價爆 玉米跳 柏南奇的木馬屠城記)

2011-0405-57金錢爆(油價爆 玉米跳 柏南奇的木馬屠城記)











Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:05/04/11

ECB hikes rates, marking exit from crisis response

by . 04:46 AM Apr 08, 2011
FRANKFURT - The European Central Bank (ECB) yesterday raised interest rates for the first time since the 2008 global financial crisis to counter budding inflation pressures in the 17-country euro zone, but it signalled the move was not necessarily the start of a series of similar steps.

The increase in the ECB's benchmark refinancing rate by 0.25 percentage point to 1.25 per cent marks the exit from the central bank's accommodative policy response to the crisis. The ECB also raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 0.50 per cent, and increased its marginal lending rate by the same amount to 2.0 per cent.

The ECB is particularly concerned that oil prices - near two-and-a-half-year highs and exacerbated by rising tensions in the Middle East and North Africa - could further boost inflation expectations.

Yesterday's announcement "makes the ECB the first major developed economy central bank to hike rates and the decision will cement its reputation as a single-minded inflation fighter," said ABN Amro economist Nick Kounis.

"The hike is unwelcome for peripheral countries, but arguably the core member states were in need of this move already some time ago. In that sense, the timing of the increase is a balancing act, which is part and parcel of the one-size-fits-all monetary policy," he added.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet used phrasing at a news conference traditionally seen as associated with further swift hikes but he took pains to stress that the central bank had not taken yesterday's decision as the first in a series of moves. That comment surprised financial markets, which were betting on two further rises in rates before the end of this year.

It may reflect the bank's concern that jacking up borrowing costs too fast would harm the euro zone economies struggling with high debt.

Mr Trichet also said that the ECB had encouraged Portugal to request an international bailout - a day after Portuguese Prime Minister Jose Socrates relented and asked for aid, which analysts estimated would amount to between €60 billion (S$108 billion) and €80 billion (S$144 billion).

"The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and thereby continues to lend considerable support to economic activity and job creation … We will continue to monitor very closely all developments with respect to upside risks to price stability," Mr Trichet said.

The phrase "monitoring closely" was once seen as a sign the ECB was two months off raising rates while "very closely" meant it was on the cards for the next month. But the term and use of "very" has lost its significance in recent years.

Crucially, Mr Trichet said: "We did not decide today that it was the first in a series of interest rate increases."

The euro fell after those comments to US$1.4258 from US$1.4306.

At press time, the Euro Stoxx 50 Index, a stock benchmark for nations using the euro, increased 0.7 per cent to 2,971.48, while the broader Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 0.2 per cent to 281.57. London's FTSE was up 0.2 per cent while Germany's Dax rose 0.3 per cent. Portuguese markets were closed for a holiday.

About 30 minutes after the opening bell in New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat at 12,426.

Earlier in the day, the Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate at a record low as policy makers judged the need to aid the recovery took precedence over the fastest inflation in more than two years. The BoE set the key rate at 0.5 per cent for a 26th month and left its bond-purchase programme at £200 billion (S$411 billion). AGENCIES

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.todayonline.com
Publish date:08/04/11

Airline profits 'may fall further'

by Travis Teo
04:46 AM Apr 08, 2011
SINGAPORE - With already-high fuel prices expected to rise further due to the disruption of supplies from refineries in disaster-stricken Japan, airlines may have to endure a further compression of their profits this year.

Frost & Sullivan said that Singapore Airlines (SIA), which is among the world's most profitable airlines, will likely see its profit margins decline to about 8 to 10 per cent for the next financial year ending March 31, 2012.

The forecast is bearish when compared with the estimate by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), which earlier this year said that SIA was among airlines capable of securing profit margins of up to 15 per cent.

Mr Julius Yeo, aviation analyst at Frost & Sullivan, said: "Japan is one of the specialised aviation oil refinery countries. If there are continuous problems in Japan, the price of aviation oil will go up and this will affect all airlines."

Mr Mika Vehvilainen, chief executive of Finland's Finnair, said the events in Japan will affect his carrier's profits and his company has revised its forecast for the year.

"Japan is an extremely important market for us. We have 20 weekly flights to Japan. After the earthquake and tsunami, that market is going to be affected. It will have short-term negative impact on our profitability as well," he said.

"The original forecast was that we would make a profit. The first quarter will be negative. Then, we will make profit for the whole year. With the corrected estimate based on oil prices and the impact from Japan, we are not expecting a profitable year," he added.

However, some airlines believe that better fuel consumption can be achieved to mitigate costs.

AirAsia X said it hopes to see profit margins hit up to 8 per cent this year, rising from 5 per cent last year.

Mr Azran Osman-Rani, chief executive of AirAsia X, said; "We think we are the world's lowest fuel consumer per seat per kilometre flown.

"At about 2.18 litres per seat per kilometre, other airlines are more than 3, almost 4 litres."

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.todayonline.com
Publish date:08/04/11

BoJ holds fire, sets loan scheme for quake-hit banks

by Reuters
04:46 AM Apr 08, 2011
TOKYO - The Bank of Japan (BoJ) yesterday kept monetary policy steady and launched a loan scheme for banks in the north-east region hit hardest by last month's devastating earthquake and tsunami.

The central bank also cut its economic assessment and warned of heightening uncertainty over the outlook, signalling its readiness to ease policy further as a nuclear safety crisis and rolling power blackouts hit output and business sentiment.

"Japan's economy is under strong downward pressure, mainly on production, due to the earthquake," the BoJ said after its rate review, revising down its view from last month when it said the economy was emerging from a lull.

BoJ governor Masaaki Shirakawa said the country's economy would resume a moderate recovery once a temporary hit to output eases, with supply chain disruptions expected to be resolved around June or July.

"Once supply constraints are resolved, export rises backed by strong growth in global economies will clearly serve as a driver to support Japan's economy," he said.

As widely expected, the BoJ kept interest rates unchanged at a range of zero to 0.1 per cent by a unanimous vote and held off on loosening policy further.

Under the new loan scheme, the BoJ will offer ¥1 trillion ($14.8 billion) in one-year loans at 0.1 per cent interest to financial institutions in the quake-hit north-east. The BoJ will also consider accepting a wider range of collateral for loans to banks in the quake-hit area.

Details of the scheme will be worked out by the next rate review on April 28, and Mr Shirakawa said he hoped to launch it in May.

While the move's impact on the overall economy may be slim, it will help banks operating in the area such as Tohoku Bank, Toho Bank and Bank of Iwate

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.todayonline.com
Publish date:08/04/11

Thursday, April 7, 2011

Genting Hong Kong From sea to shore - gaming is paying off (CIMB)

Genting Hong Kong
OUTPERFORM
US$0.42/HK$3.20 @06/04/11
Target: US$0.48/HK$3.77
12-mth price range US$0.54/US$0.16
Major shareholders
Lim Kok Thay 57.5%
Resorts World Limited 18.4%

From sea to shore - gaming is paying off

• Initiate with OUTPERFORM. We like Genting Hong Kong’s land-based growth story via Resorts World Manila (RWM) which has set a new standard of product and service quality in the Philippines gaming sector. The cruise business has also turned around. The company’s expansion from the cruise business to the casino industry amid the regional gaming boom looks set to pay off. We begin coverage with an OUTPERFORM call and end-CY11 SOP target price of US$0.48, which is derived from a blended CY12 EV/EBITDA of 12x, a 20% discount to regional casino rivals’ 14.6x target. Potential catalysts are i) better-than-expected operational data from RWM, ii) continuous margin improvement for NCL, iii) more transparent dividend policies for NCL and Travellers, and iv) opportunities to enter other jurisdictions.

• Unlocking potential of Philippines gaming sector. With RWM providing a new platform for casino gaming entertainment in the Philippines, this young but promising sector could pick up its pace of expansion. Fuelled by deeper penetration into the local mass market and the influx of overseas high rollers, the depth of the Philippines gaming market could surprise even more on the upside than Macau. RWM is ideally placed to grab a bigger slice of the enlarged pie with its differentiated product offerings and expect the casino to post higher earnings growth than its Macau peers.

• Discount to regional peers should narrow. On an EV/EBITDA basis, the market is still valuing Genting Hong Kong at a 24% discount to its regional casino rivals’ current average of 15x as the cruise business continues to dominate earnings. As contributions from RWM are expected to become the major driver from FY11 onwards, the discount could be narrowed.

Background
Expanding from sea to land. Incorporated in Nov 93, Genting Hong Kong, formerly known as Star Cruises Limited, is a leisure, entertainment, hospitality and gaming enterprise with core operations in both sea-based passenger cruise ships and landbased integrated resorts. A pioneer in its own right, the company has made a name for itself by taking the initiative to develop the Asia-Pacific region as an international cruise destination for its Star Cruises fleet. Genting Hong Kong acquired Norwegian Cruise Line (NCL) in 2000 to extend its reach into the western cruise market. Building on the cruise foundation and leveraging the Genting brand name, the company successfully expanded its footprint into the more coveted land-based casino gaming business in Manila in 2009. Genting Hong Kong has been listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange since Nov 2000 and is traded on the Singapore Exchange with the ticker symbol GENHK SP.

Star Cruises – leading cruise line in Asia-Pacific. Under the Star Cruises brand, Genting Hong Kong currently operates a fleet of four ships that sail to destinations such as Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong. Besides offering a wide range of entertainment activities and dining options on board, Star Cruises also provides shore excursions for cruisers to experience diverse cultures at various port cities and islands. Revenue from the gambling facilities offered by its operational ships, which currently include 99 VIP tables, 196 grind tables and 433 slot machines, makes up almost 60% of Genting Hong Kong’s topline. Despite intensifying competition from land-based casinos in Malaysia, Singapore and Macau, Star Cruises has managed to keep its occupancy rate above 80% throughout the years. Headquartered in Hong Kong, Star Cruises has sales offices in over 20 countries globally

Norwegian Cruise Line (NCL) – expansion into western cruise market. NCL is one of the leading cruise ship operators in the world, with routes focusing on North America, Caribbean, Europe and South America. Constantly innovating, NCL has won multiple awards in recognition of its operational excellence. It currently operates 11 cruise ships with over 26,000 berths or 9% of the overall cruise capacity in North America. Through Star Cruises and NCL, Genting Hong Kong ranks as the third largest cruise operator in the world, with an aggregate fleet of 18 ships cruising to over 200 destinations. Genting Hong Kong considers its 50% equity holding in NCL as an investment and accounts for it as a jointly controlled entity. The remaining 50% interest is held by two private equity firms, Apollo (37.5%) and TPG (12.5%). NCL has filed a registration statement with the SEC for a proposed IPO of its ordinary shares to raise up to US$250m to pay down senior debt and to fund future capital expenditure.

Resorts World Manila (RWM) – the new darling. Located at the 25ha Newport City in Manila, which is a 10-minute drive from Ninoy Aquino International Airport, RWM is Genting HK’s first foray into a land-based integrated-resort attraction. Opened to the gambling community and business/leisure travellers in Aug 09, the project under Travellers International is a 50:50 partnership with Alliance Global Group (AGG), one of the leading consumer conglomerates in the Philippines. Travellers holds one of the only four gaming licences awarded by Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation (Pagcor) and is the first mover in establishing an integrated resort-style casino in the Philippines. RWM’s 3-storey casino gaming floors offer 155 VIP tables, 138 grind tables and 1,216 slot machines. Leveraging the Genting brand name, RWM is able to tap the Genting Group’s network of over 3m existing customers and established relationships with junket operators to bring in overseas clients. Contributions from Travellers are reported as share of profit of jointly controlled entity in Genting Hong Kong’s books.

Company outlook
Star Cruises – stable topline but margin under pressure
Largely a mature business. Although Star Cruises has been the foundation for Genting HK, we believe that the Asian cruise industry is already in its maturity phase. This is evident from the company’s disposals of three ships in 2007-09 and the laying up of another three. The flourishing of land-based casinos in Asia, particularly after the recovery of Macau and the rise of the two IRs in Singapore, has prompted Genting HK to reposition the previously gaming-centric Star Cruises as a more family-oriented cruise operator. Although we do not expect to see significant growth in Star Cruises’s on-board gaming revenue, a modest 3.5% growth in its topline, driven mainly by higher fares, could be conservatively assumed. In FY10, on-board gaming revenue from Star Cruises chipped in around 56% of Genting Hong Kong’s reported topline, down from 58% in FY09. Passenger fares contributed another 29%, up from 25% in FY09.

Fuel expenses might nullify margin expansion efforts. In FY10, Genting Hong Kong continued to expand its EBITDA margin as a result of effective cost-cutting initiatives. Excluding fuel expenses, total operating expenses dropped by 1.9% from the FY09 level. However, escalating fuel prices might pressure the cruise operator’s EBITDA margin in 2011 in view of the Middle East turbulence which has pushed up oil prices. In fact, Star Cruises’ average fuel cost has already surged 35% from US$367 per metric ton in FY09 to US$494 per metric ton in FY10. If the warfare prolongs, Genting Hong Kong’s 23% EBITDA margin might not be sustainable although the company has a 6-month hedging on 60% of its oil consumption. Taking into consideration our in-house expectations of unrelenting upward oil price pressure, we project an easing of the EBITDA margin to 20-21% over the next three years.

NCL – riding the uptrend with more capacity
Western cruise market still under-penetrated. In contrast to the mature Asian cruise market, we believe that there are abundant opportunities for growth in the west. According to data from Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA), although the industry has recorded an average annual passenger growth rate of 7.2% since 1990, penetration is still poor as only around 20% of the US population has ever cruised and this represents only 10% of the North American vacation market. The underpenetration argument is even stronger for the European market as only 1% of Europeans went on a cruise in 2008, compared with 3.1% of the population in North America. As it controls 10% of total capacity of North American cruise operators (3rd largest after Carnival and Royal Caribbean) and differentiates itself from the traditionally more structured cruise alternative with its “Freestyle Cruising” concept, NCL is set to cruise on the continuous growth of the western cruise market and hold on to its 10% market share.

Aggressively adding capacity. After welcoming in Jun 10 Norwegian Epic which is its largest vessel to date, NCL will further expand its passenger capacity when it takes delivery of two 4,000-berth ships in 2Q13 and 2Q14. Although it is not the only cruise operator which has ordered new ships, NCL is undoubtedly one of the most aggressive as it will contribute 17% of total new supply over the next three years. Sector-wise, the total increase in capacity for major western cruise brands is 4.3% in 2012 and 4% in 2013. These expansion efforts provide strong indication that NCL and its competitors are optimistic about the outlook for the western cruise industry. Bolstered by improving leisure travel trends after the global financial crisis and a relatively low supply outlook in the near term, NCL should be able to maintain its 110% occupancy rate in 2011-2013 and boost its revenue thereafter with the delivery of the two new ships. In view of full-year contributions from Norwegian Epic from 2011 onwards, we believe that annual topline growth of 11% for FY11-13 is achievable.

Feeling less the pinch of escalating oil price. Despite topline growth of only 9% in FY10, NCL racked up EBITDA growth of 24% on the back of cost-reduction exercises. This marked its fourth consecutive year of double-digit growth. Facing the same oil price predicament as Star Cruises, NCL is set to post lower EBITDA growth in FY11- 13 but should continue to see EBITDA margin expansion, albeit at a slower pace. We are less concerned about the EBITDA margin squeeze for NCL than for Star Cruises as i) fuel expenses constituted 15% of total operating costs for NCL vs. 27% for Star Cruises, and ii) we think that there is still room for margin expansion for NCL on the back of higher operating efficiency driven by stronger topline growth.

NCL eying IPO in 2011. Despite having filed the latest registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in Feb 2011, the company is contemplating a better timeframe to list its 50% jointly controlled NCL on the US stockmarket as current oil price inflation is weighing down valuations. Although management sees a moderately high possibility of accomplishing the US$250m IPO this year, we think that a listing in 2012 is more probable as oil price is unlikely to recede to a more reasonable level in the shorter term.

RWM – game changer in the Philippines
Philippines gaming sector – potential waiting to be unlocked. Before RWM was established, the market had been monopolised by Pagcor’s casinos for almost three decades. Due to the lack of competition, the incumbents had no incentive to improve the conditions and quality of services in the existing casinos. This dragged down the pace of expansion of the sector. The entry of RWM changed the landscape entirely. By offering a whole new experience of leisure, entertainment and hospitality, RWM has not only managed to grab significant market share from the existing players, it has also successfully created a discrete market segment which previously resisted the idea of casino gaming. Compared to the old and dingy Pagcor casinos, RWM’s integrated resort style property is a Triton among the minnows and plays a pivotal role in unlocking the potential of the Philippines casino gaming sector. Currently, Pagcor is still the largest casino operator in the nation with 13 casinos, 28 satellite casinos, 25 exclusive VIP clubs and four arcades.

Propensity to gamble is high in the Philippines. It is estimated that the total size of the Philippines gaming market was approximately US$3.9bn in 2010, split equally between regulated and shadow gaming. The propensity to gamble is undoubtedly high, as indicated by the locals’ regular and feverish engagement in gaming activities including cock fighting, lottery betting, sports betting and of course, casino gambling. Taking our cue from Pagcor’s estimated FY10 gross gaming revenue of US$720m, and assuming that Pagcor controls 60% of the casino gaming market, we estimate the market size for casinos in the Philippines to be approximately US$1.2bn last year, which is about 5% the size of the Macau market and a quarter of the size of the Singapore market.

RWM to ride on sector growth and market share expansion. We are strong believer of the supply-driven model of the gaming sector. With RWM providing a new platform for casino gaming entertainment, we believe that the young but promising sector could pick up its pace of expansion. After expanding 38% in 2010 with the help of the novelty effect of RWM, the Philippines casino gaming sector is expected to notch up growth of 25% p.a. over the next three years, fuelled by i) deeper penetration into the local mass market, and ii) increased influx of overseas high rollers on the back of more established junket operations. With its differentiated product offerings, RWM is undoubtedly well-placed to grab a bigger slice of the enlarged pie. We expect RWM to increase its share of gaming revenue from 30% in 2010 to 35% in 2011 and 40% from 2012 onwards. In terms of revenue mix, we expect a 50:50 spilt between VIP and mass market from FY11 onwards, in line with management’s guidance. In FY10, gaming revenue tilted more heavily to the mass market segment with a 55:45 split.

Not relying on mainland Chinese visitors. By exploiting a more diversified customer base, RWM is not competing with Macau casinos for China/Hong Kong punters. According to management, visitors from S. Korea, Taiwan and Southeast Asia currently rank above China/Hong Kong in terms of gaming revenue sources from abroad. This structure of reliance is not surprising as Koreans have, for historical and cultural reasons, picked the Philippines as one of their top tourism destination choices in the past. RWM is currently still relying on the local higher rollers and mass market for 60-70% of its revenue. However, it is engaging some 130 junket operators to bring in overseas high rollers, leading us to believe that this segment should see sizeable growth. Expansion in this segment could be further propelled by more aggressive tourism promotional efforts by the Philippines government, which has identified the tourism industry as an important economic growth driver. We have already seen a clear indication of the underlying potential of the overseas VIPs after RWM turned in a fourfold yoy expansion of this segment in 1Q11.

RWM to be the major earnings driver. The company’s strategic move to enter the land-based casino industry through a joint venture with AGG to obtain a gaming licence in the Philippines is timely in meeting the burgeoning regional gaming demand. It might be premature to put the Philippines and Macau gaming sectors side by side but we do see similarities between the two and think that the depth of the Philippines market might surprise even more on the upside. In FY10, RWM achieved an EBITDA margin of 29%, higher than the 24% posted by Sands China, Macau’s EBITDA leader. We think that the lower gaming tax regime and lower wage environment in the Philippines are factors contributing to the high margin realised by RWM. As RWM ramps up further with substantial increases in its topline, we should see a higher level of operating leverage. We project a 30% EBITDA margin for RWM in FY11 and a sustainable 35% beyond that year.

Pagcor City – a long-haul development project. Bagong Nayong Pilipino Entertainment City Manila or simply known as Pagcor City is Pagcor’s redevelopment of 800ha of reclaimed land in the Manila Bayshore area into the Philippines’ own miniature version of Las Vegas. With the obvious aim of harnessing the tourism industry as the nation’s main catalyst for economic growth, the fully-integrated Pagcor City will feature high-rise luxury hotels with gaming amenities, amusement parks, racetracks, commercial centres and MICE facilities when completed. Four integrated resort projects have been qualified according to the terms of reference since the project was proposed back in 2008. However, due to i) the global financial crisis, ii) delayed improvements of local infrastructure, and iii) prolonged transitional period of the new Pagcor chairman, the schedule to commence full-scale construction was postponed until recently when a couple of operators with provisional licences to build started structural works at the site. Besides Travellers, Pagcor has awarded gaming licences to operate integrated resorts in Entertainment City Manila to three other companies – Belle Corp and Bloomberry from the Philippines and Azure from Japan.

No substantial plan yet to build in Manila Bayshore. As one of the four operators with provisional licences to build in Pagcor City, Travellers owns a sizeable 30.5ha plot in the Manila Bayshore area. Although pre-development work has started, Travellers has no immediate intention to scale up its construction efforts at the site. We believe that Travellers is focusing most of its resources on ramping up business at RWM and is assuming a second-mover strategy in its Pagcor City venture. Having RWM as its cash generator at the current juncture, management is not concerned about cannibalisation from the new casinos and holds the view that the market could be enlarged with the entry of new players, similar to the expansionary period experienced by Macau since 2006. As the other operators are likely to take another 2- 3 years to complete construction, we think that RWM could enjoy considerable gaming revenue growth without having to worry about competition.

Opportunities to enter other gaming jurisdictions. The expansion of Genting Hong Kong’s land-based casino footprint might not just end in Manila Bayshore. As gaming liberalisation efforts pick up pace in other jurisdictions, particularly Taiwan and Sri Lanka, we see opportunities for Genting Hong Kong to extend its reach beyond the Philippines. Following in the footsteps of Singapore, the Tourism Bureau of Taiwan has accelerated the liberalisation of the gaming sector by recently drafting a casino legislative paper, which will be briefed in offshore islands such as Jinmen, Mazhu and Penghu in the coming months and tabled for discussion and passing in the Taiwan National Legislative Council by end-11. According to the proposal, Taiwan will issue at most two 30-year gaming licences within the first 10 years through a bidding process.

Chances of winning the bid will largely depend on the scale of investment committed by casino operators as well as the operators’ experience in running integrated resorts. The gaming tax is likely to be in the range of 12-15%. The expected timeline for the bidding is next year and the integrated resorts could be operational as early as 2013.

Taiwan to be the next entrenchment? The interested offshore islands will hold referendums for the residents on the establishment of the casinos. While we think that Genting Hong Kong stands a high chance of clinching a gaming licence in Taiwan on the back of i) its proven experience in land-based casinos, ii) the prominence of the Genting brand in Asia, iii) familiarity with the nation’s gaming market, thanks to its Taiwan cruise routes, we are not overly excited as the liberalisation efforts are still in an early phase and there are still political uncertainties. Having said that, any positive progress and newsflow on Genting Hong Kong’s endeavour in Taiwan are likely to drive up its valuation which has yet to price in the Taiwanese prospects.

SWOT analysis
Strengths
. RWM is the first integrated-resort style casino in the Philippines
• Able to wrest gaming revenue market share from incumbents with differentiated product offerings
• Able to tap into Genting’s network of 3m customers
• Lower gaming tax and labour costs in the Philippines compared with other countries
• Not competing with Macau casinos for China/Hong Kong visitors
• NCL continues to expand passenger capacity to meet growing cruise demand in North America/Europe


Weaknesses
• Star Cruises unable to fight off competition from regional land-based casinos to grow its on-board gaming revenue more significantly
• Star Cruises and NCL might not be able to pass through higher fuel expenses to cruisers
• Financial leverage of NCL expected to remain at the higher range
• No substantiated development plan yet for the piece of land in Pagcor City
• No substantiated development plan yet for the land in Pagcor City

Opportunities
• Asian and western cruise markets could grow faster than expected
• Able to penetrate deeper into the local mass market with more marketing and promotional efforts
• Manage to capture more overseas high rollers with more established arrangements with junket operators
• Opportunities to enter other jurisdictions such as Taiwan and Sri Lanka if gaming liberalisation efforts pick-up pace
• Travellers well-positioned for future financing with low financial leverage
• IPO for NCL

Threats
• Prolonged geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could further disrupt oil supply and drive fuel costs higher
• Oil price levels might be inflated by rising production costs and demand supply imbalances
• Unexpected political unrest in the Philippines might negatively impact the tourism industry
• Unexpected tightening measures to control the pace of expansion of the casino gaming sector could curtail revenue growth

Risks
Interest rate hike would have adverse impact on bottomline. Besides oil price inflation, the major concern we have in relation to Genting Hong Kong and NCL is the possibility of interest rate hikes which would have a detrimental impact on the companies’ earnings. This is particularly critical for NCL, which took on more debt in FY10 for the purchase of a new cruise ship. As at end-FY10, 33% of NCL’s debt was fixed-rate and 67% was variable. We estimate that a 1% pt increase in the LIBOR rate would lift its annual interest expense by US$21m, leading to a 20% reduction in its bottomline. This would reduce Genting Hong Kong’s share of profits accordingly.

Tourism industry in the Philippines might fail to boom. Despite posting a record high of 3.5m tourist arrivals in 2010, the Philippines tourism sector might not be able to expand strongly due to safety concerns and underdeveloped infrastructure. Notwithstanding an improving regulatory environment, we think that the Philippines government still lags behind its Singapore and Macau counterparts in terms of supervising, regulating and promoting the tourism and gaming sectors. Although RWM depends largely on local visitors and a number of overseas high rollers, gaming revenue from tourists should not be overlooked. RWM will supply a total of 1,200 hotel rooms to the leisure/business travellers when its Remington Hotel is operational in 3Q11. If it is unable to fill up the rooms, it could mean that the lacklustre tourism sector is dragging down RWM’s businesses. In addition, any adverse political decision against Travellers could have a negative impact on RWM’s position in the Philippines gaming space.

Financials
Recap of FY10 results. After stripping out some US$25m one-off gains from the disposal of assets, Genting Hong Kong turned in FY10 core net earnings of US$42.6m, 51% below consensus estimate of US$86m profit. The major discrepancy came from lower-than-expected contributions from its jointly-controlled entities. Consensus expected the total share of profit from both NCL and Travellers to be US$75m but that figure came in short at US$46m. With Star Cruises expected to provide relatively stable profits, Genting Hong Kong will count on contributions from NCL and Travellers to be the main earnings growth drivers. No dividend policy is in place at the current juncture but we expect 40% profit sharing from NCL and 33% from Travellers until further guidance is provided by management. It is also worth mentioning that the company reclassified Travellers from an associate to a jointly controlled entity in 2H10.

Manageable financial leverage for Genting HK and Travellers. Through a series of deleveraging exercises since 2007, Genting HK has brought down its net gearing from 174% in FY07 to 17% in FY10. Due to the lack of expansion plans for its Star Cruises fleet, we think that capital expenditure will be minimal and the low gearing ratio should be sustainable. At the jointly controlled entity level, Travellers has already spent US$500m to develop RWM to date and management is budgeting another US$1bn for the development of its Pagcor City project over the next few years. With only US$78m net debt and 24% net gearing ratio at end-FY10, Travellers is well placed for future financing to expand its footprint in the Philippines hospitality and gaming sector.

NCL to assume more debt. Nevertheless, we expect NCL’s gearing ratio to remain relatively high over the next few years given the high amount of funds needed to fulfil ship purchase commitments over the next few years. NCL has ordered two new ships, each with a passenger capacity of 4,000 berths and costing US$1.6bn in total. According to the agreement, NCL will pay 99% of the contractual price upon delivery in 2Q13 and 2Q14, with 90% of the payment financed through export credit financing by a syndicate of banks. According to anticipated capital expenditure, we expect NCL to increase its debt to approximately US$4bn in FY13 from US$3.2bn in FY10. Having
said that, we are not overly concerned about its liquidity and seemingly stretched finances as increased cash inflow from operating activities should keep its gearing ratio in check at the 150-165% range, even without the capital replenishment from the IPO.

Valuation and recommendation
Bullish on Philippines gaming prospects. We like Genting Hong Kong’s land-based growth story via RWM which has set a new standard of product and service quality in the Philippines gaming sector. Even its underlying cruise business has turned around. Leveraging its cruise foundation and the Genting brand name, the company has made a timely entry into the casino gaming sector amid a regional gaming boom. This bet looks set to pay off. We regard RWM as truly a game changer in the Philippines gaming market as it offers a distinct leisure and entertainment experience for the locals. More aggressive expansion into the higher-stakes VIP segment seems to be in place as well. We continue to be a strong believer of the supply-driven model of the gaming sector and think that RWM is ideally placed to grab a bigger slice of the enlarged pie with its differentiated product. Contributions from RWM are expected to be the major earnings driver for Genting Hong Kong from here on.

Trading at a discount to regional peers. On an EV/EBITDA basis, the market is still valuing Genting Hong Kong at a 24% discount to its regional casino rivals’ current average of 15x given its dominant cruise earnings which are more susceptible to fluctuations in economic prospects and oil prices. We value the company’s three business lines separately. Travellers should be valued at a premium over regional pure casino plays in view of i) RWM’s higher revenue and EBITDA growth, ii) higher EBITDA margin, and iii) less competition in the Philippines gaming space. We value Travellers at 17.5x CY12 EV/EBITDA, a 20% premium over its casino peers’ 14.6x. As for its NCL venture, we attach a CY12 EV/EBITDA of 10x, a 10% premium over its cruise peers’ current average of 9x as the western cruise business is still on an uptrend. But we are less upbeat on its Star Cruises operation and apply a CY12 EV/EBITDA of 9x, in line with its cruise peers’ current average. This leads to a blended CY12 EV/EBITDA of 12x.

Starting coverage with OUTPERFORM call. Our end-CY11 SOP-based target price of US$0.48 (HK$3.77) suggests 15-18% upside from the current price level. In view of the potential re-rating catalysts of i) better-than-expected operational data from RWM, ii) continuous margin improvements from NCL, iii) more transparent dividend policies for NCL and Travellers, and iv) opportunities to enter other jurisdictions as gaming liberalisation efforts pick up pace, we initiate coverage on Genting Hong Kong with an OUTPERFORM call.



Source/转贴/Extract/: CIMB Research
Publish date:07/04/11
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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