Saturday, March 26, 2011

SIAS says Spice acting in minority's interests

Business Times - 26 Mar 2011


SIAS says Spice acting in minority's interests

By FELDA CHAY

THE Securities Investors Association Singapore (SIAS) has thrown its weight behind Spice i2i's controversial plan to acquire Indonesian handset distributor Affinity Group for US$175 million, saying after a meeting with Spice's management team that the company is acting in the interests of minority shareholders.

SIAS, an advocate of investor rights, said yesterday in a press statement that it met Spice's group CEO Maneesh Tripathi, chief financial officer KTS Ananad and investor relations advisers, and was briefed on the group's latest developments and the proposed acquisition of Affinity.

The planned purchase, which was announced in January, has drawn much criticism from Spice's minority shareholders, who feel that the company is overpaying for Affinity. Some shareholders have pointed out that Affinity's pro forma net book value is only US$29.5 million as at Sept 30, 2010, nearly US$145 million below Spice's purchase price.

Many are also unhappy that the company has issued a $151 million cash call when it announced the proposed acquisition, barely five months after a previous rights issue exercise.

SIAS president and CEO David Gerald sees the proposed acquisition as putting the company 'on the right path' but did not give details, saying that the information may be sensitive.

Said Mr Gerald: 'Having heard their plans, SIAS is of the opinion that the company is in fact acting in the interest of the minority shareholders.

'Minority shareholders should seriously consider the acquisition plan and make an informed decision in their interest. They must consider the fact that if the company is successful in their vision of acquisition of 'Circle of Champions', it may succeed in becoming a billion dollar company.'

Spice had earlier made known its strategy of collecting a 'Circle of Champions' - companies in markets spanning the Ivory Coast to Indonesia - as it strives to become a leading mobile player in those markets.

Minority shareholders will get to vote on the acquisition next Tuesday at an extraordinary general meeting.

Yesterday, Spice's shares closed unchanged at six cents. The company's shares have fallen 47.8 per cent since it announced the Affinity acquisition and its latest rights issue

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:26/03/11

Sing dollar hits high notes against US$

Business Times - 26 Mar 2011


Sing dollar hits high notes against US$

Higher risk appetite and inflation behind rate swing

By EMILYN YAP

THE Singapore dollar strengthened against the greenback yesterday - breaching the 1.26 mark at one point - as risk appetite returned and speculation of further monetary tightening in the region continued.

One US dollar bought as little as S$1.2598 in the afternoon. It recovered some ground later, but was worth only S$1.2604 at 7pm, setting a new year-low.

'It's more a reflection of the weak (US) dollar and improving risk appetite,' said OCBC economist Selena Ling. 'People are looking past the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) problems and they are hopeful that there are signs of stabilisation in Japan.'

Greater investor confidence has shown up in stock markets. The Straits Times Index has been climbing this week, riding on Wall Street's resilience.

In the foreign exchange markets, other Asian currencies apart from the Sing dollar also gained. Just 3.0235 Malaysian ringgit were enough for a US dollar - a year-low. The South Korean won appreciated to 1,113.75 to the greenback, a record in more than a month. There is another plausible theme behind Asian currencies' rise - the expectation that central banks in the region would tighten monetary policy to cap fast-rising prices.

For instance, there is talk that Korean authorities have become more receptive towards letting the won appreciate to choke off inflationary pressures, said Nomura's global head of foreign exchange research Simon Flint.

Market watchers also detected a hawkish tone from Bank Negara Malaysia when it said on Wednesday that upside risks to inflation have become increasingly visible.

Signs such as these, together with 'a basic comfort with the risk environment', have led people to sell the US dollar, Mr Flint said.

In Singapore, headline inflation in February fell below expectations to 5 per cent. Still, a majority of private sector economists believe that inflationary pressures remain strong, and they foresee the Monetary Authority of Singapore letting the Sing dollar rise at a faster pace at its meeting in April.

'The balance of risks remains tilted towards inflation,' said Citi economists Kit Wei Zheng and Brian Tan in a report yesterday.

'While some near-term weakness to NODX (non-oil domestic exports) due to supply and demand side disruption from the Japan earthquake is likely in the second quarter, the downside risks to growth should not be exaggerated.'

OCBC, Nomura and Citi see high chances of another round of monetary policy tightening in April. Citi expects the US$/SG$ to reach 1.22 at the end of the year.

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:26/03/11

High radiation leak adds to Japan panic

Business Times - 26 Mar 2011

High radiation leak adds to Japan panic
People living within 20-30km of Fukushima nuclear plant asked to leave voluntarily
By ANTHONY ROWLEY

IN TOKYO
EVENTS in a crisis-hit Japan took a turn for the worse yesterday when a high-level radiation leak was detected at one of six troubled reactors at the Fukushima nuclear power plant and the government 'encouraged' people living within 20-30 km of it to leave the area voluntarily.

In a speech last night, Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan told the Japanese people that utmost efforts were being made to get the Fukushima reactors under control, but at the same time he warned that the situation did not yet warrant optimism.

Reports circulated during the day that the Fukushima incident was about to be raised on an international scale of seriousness from 5, where it already matches the Three Mile Island nuclear accident in the US, to 6, which would put it just one step below the Chernobyl catastrophe in the former Soviet Union.

Hidehiko Nishiyama, director-general of the nuclear and industrial safety division at Japan's Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry, did not rule out this possibility at a briefing in Tokyo last night. But he stressed that the 'environmental situation in Japan has not become any worse' as a result of elevated radiation.

Technicians and others from the Fukushima plant operator, the Tokyo Electric Power Company (Tepco) and elsewhere continued to battle yesterday with sometimes sharply elevated levels of radiation that have caused three Tepco workers to be hospitalised with radiation burns and exposed others to high doses.

Mr Nishiyama acknowledged that the presence of high levels of radioactivity in water at the nuclear plant might indicate that pressure vessels and containment vessels had been 'damaged to a certain extent'. But he ruled out the possibility of cracks having developed. Radiation might also be coming from spent fuel that had been exposed after cooling pools evaporated, he said.

Frantic efforts continue to pump off radioactivity-contaminated water, some of which has been sprayed onto reactors in a desperate efforts to prevent a nuclear fuel 'meltdown' so that repair work to stabilise the reactors can be 'speeded up', Mr Nishiyama said.

US nuclear advisers who have flown to Japan to assist with the potential calamity have urged that fresh water be sprayed onto the reactors, instead of seawater which can cause corrosion damage. The US will assist with this by providing fresh water-carrying sea vessels close to the plant.

An official of Japan's science and education ministry said last night that aerial monitoring of radiation levels around and beyond the Fukushima plant will begin as of today, to supplement land and sea monitoring and give a more accurate picture of the critical situation.

Meanwhile, some signs of panic were evident in a mad scramble for bottled water after authorities in Tokyo said earlier this week that young children should not drink radiation-contaminated tap water. Domestic producers of bottled water were asked to maximise production and imports are being stepped up.

Bottled water is being handed out free of charge to 80,000 families with babies up to the age of one year, as the commodity disappears from store and supermarket shelves in Tokyo and elsewhere.

However, Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs yesterday quoted a World Health Organisation statement that 'standards adopted by the Japanese authorities for this emergency are precautionary'. Drinking tap water in Japan 'poses no immediate health risk', the ministry insisted.

The confirmed death toll from the record earthquake and monster tsunami that devastated Japan's north-east coast two weeks ago climbed past the 10,000 mark and the total of dead and missing is now approaching 27,000, authorities said.
Reuters reported that China yesterday banned imports of some Japanese food products amid fears of radiation contamination, hours after announcing that two Japanese travellers who had flown into an eastern city were found to have radiation levels well above safety limits.

China joins an expanding list of Asian and other countries, including Singapore, that this week have imposed restrictions on imports of certain categories of vegetables and other produce produced in the areas surrounding the stricken nuclear power station in Fukushima.

Kyodo, meanwhile, reported that the Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan, a government panel, recommended voluntary evacuation in the 2-30 kilometre range from Fukushima as the release of radioactive materials from the plant is expected to continue for some time. Those closer to the plant have already been evacuated.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said yesterday it was 'preferable' for people to leave of their own accord, given the difficulties they were encountering in their daily lives.

'The distribution of goods is stalled, and it is rather difficult to maintain their daily living over a long period of time,' he said, adding that the government will provide logistical assistance in terms of transportation and facilities to accept those moving.

At the same time, the government indicated that Japan could face many months of electric power cuts resulting from a loss of nuclear generating capacity from Fukushima and elsewhere. The cuts are already hobbling Japan's industrial output and firms say they cannot plan ahead in the face of this serious handicap.

The government also said that it would work out by late April a set of energy-saving measures to address more than 10 million kilowatts of electricity shortage expected in the summer in Tokyo and nearby areas, Kyodo said. Tepco's power generation capacity is unlikely to recover fully by then.

To deal with power shortages, currently addressed by rolling blackouts, Industry Minister Banri Kaieda said the government might consider options such as the introduction of daylight saving time, extension of employees' summer vacations, and an effective rise in household electricity charges as short-term measures.

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:26/03/11

Pan-United Concrete yields (DBSV)

Pan-United Corporation
BUY S$0.515
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.62

Concrete yields
• Earnings rising as RMC prices firm up
• Bright outlook as infrastructure projects and M&A plans start to kick in
• Total 3.0Scts DPS declared for FY10, translating into 6% yield
• Maintain BUY and S$0.62 TP

Improving outlook. Pan-United’s RMC volume is expected to pick up with the commencement of public sector works such as MRT Downtown Line 2/3, HDB projects, Sports Hub, SLNG Terminal, Seletar Aerospace Park, etc. Port segment should continue to see rising cargo throughput. However, the operating environment for shipping remains challenging in view of the bleak outlook for dry bulk shipping.

M&A to drive long-term growth. Pan-United has embarked on a series of proactive M&A plans to drive long term growth. Recent acquisitions in Indonesia and Vietnam are pending regulatory approvals. Acquisition of upstream assets in Indonesia is expected to improve margins as it now has its own supply of granite and aggregates, while the JV with the Vietnamese government should fuel Pan-United’s topline growth in the medium term. We have yet to factor these developments into our forecasts.

BUY into Pan United’s concrete yield. The group declared a final 1.5 Scents DPS to take FY10 dividend to 3.0 Scents, similar to previous years. This translates into 82% payout ratio, in line with efforts to reward shareholders with stable dividends. Pan-United will be a key beneficiary of robust infrastructure demand in Singapore, and potentially Asia Pacific with its overseas expansion strategy. Maintain Buy and S$0.62 TP.


Source/转贴/Extract/: DBS Vickers Research
Publish date:25/03/11

Genting Hong Kong: A game of confidence (KE)

Genting Hong Kong

A game of confidence

Event
Genting Hong Kong (GenHK) reported FY10 net profit of US$67.9m, slightly below our forecast of US$74.9m. The strong turnaround after four years of reported net losses was within expectation. The better YoY performance was a result of all-round improvements in Star Cruises and Norwegian Cruise Line (NCL), as well as fullyear contribution from Resorts World Manila. The latter generated EBITDA of US$102.0m on US$355.8m of revenue for FY10. Maintain BUY.

Our View
Occupancy for Star Cruises fell from 91% to 83% due to the deployment of Star Pisces, adding to its Asian fleet capacity. However, it benefited from stronger ticket pricing, resulting in higher passenger ticket revenue, while operating margin rose by 3.9ppt to 6.6% despite an increase in fuel cost. This reflects improving operating efficiency in the business.

Management said the listing of NCL would likely be this year but there is a possibility that it could be delayed to next year as well, depending on equity market conditions. A delay however would not be a negative event as NCL’s earnings are expected to improve, allowing it to capture more equity value.

A key takeaway is the confidence management exuded when asked about the competition and potential of its Manila casino business. We were surprised to learn that Koreans and other Southeast Asians formed the largest group of foreign visitors to its casino rather than the Hongkongers and mainland Chinese. This led management to assert that there is a big untapped gaming market, in addition to a huge local mass market.

Action & Recommendation
Our forecasts remain largely intact and we also introduce FY13F figures. In our opinion, GenHK is only at the beginning of a high-growth stage and there is more potential from its casino business. Our target price is unchanged at US$0.54, based on SOTP valuation. Maintain BUY.

Source/转贴/Extract/: Kim Eng Research
Publish date:25/03/11

UMS Rare window of opportunity (KE)

UMS Holdings.
Up-to-date in 60 seconds

Background: UMS provides equipment manufacturing and engineering services to Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) in the semiconductor, hard disk drive, healthcare and defence industries. More than 90% of its revenue comes from semiconductor OEMs, who are currently seeing a strong upturn in demand.

Recent development:
UMS has just received inprinciple approval from the Singapore Exchange to list up to 110m new shares for its proposed dual listing on the Korean Exchange via Korean Depositary Receipts (KDR). For FY10, the board declared its highest-ever total dividend payout of 5 cents per share, including a final dividend of 2 cents and special dividend of 1 cent to be proposed at the AGM at 10 am today.

Our view
Upbeat guidance from major customer.

Applied Materials (AMAT) is UMS’s biggest customer and the world’s largest semiconductor equipment maker. It accounts for more than 50% of UMS sales and also owns a 5.25% stake in the company. Its indication of continued order strength in 2Q11 bodes well for UMS in the coming quarters.

Leveraging on KDR listing for expansion.
Korea is an important base for the global semiconductor manufacturing companies and offer abundant M&A opportunities with the local firms. The listing of KDRs will raise the profile of UMS in Korea and facilitate penetration into the market. The additional capital from the new listing will be used for its business expansion.

Still relatively undervalued. In view of the upturn in the global chip industry and improving demand in its key customers’ end markets, investor interest in semiconductor plays remains strong. Despite the 25% increase in share price since the proposed dual listing on the KRX last October, UMS still trades at a Bloomberg consensus PER of 6.2x for FY11, which is below AMAT’s 10x PER and the regional industry average of 7.3x.

Rare window of opportunity. Based on the aggregate final and special dividends of 3 cents per share, UMS offers an attractive yield of 5.1%, which can be realised in less than a month as the dividend ex-date and payable date fall on 1 April and 15 April, respectively.


Source/转贴/Extract/: Kim Eng Research
Publish date:25/03/11

怡保花園2.1億售園中城‧5500萬充特別息

Created 03/26/2011 - 14:03
(吉隆坡25日訊)怡保花園(IGB,1597,主板產業組)以2億1千571萬令吉現金,脫售谷中城城市花園私人有限公司(MVCG)予旗下KRIS資產(KASSETS,6653,主板產業組),同時將把其中的5千500萬令吉充作特別股息回饋股東。

售MVCG予KRIS資產
該公司發文告表示,今日正式與KRIS資產達致協議,怡保花園以2億1千571萬令吉現金,脫售持有園中城商場的MVCG給持有76%子公司KRIS資產。

以上售價主要考量到相關產業市值8億2千萬令吉,但扣除淨賬面值6億1千731萬8千令吉後,重估盈餘為2億零268萬2千令吉,加上MVCG淨資產值2億5千432萬8千與發售新MVCG新股價值870萬令吉,並減去回贖MVCG可贖回優先股值2億5千萬令吉後,推算中的脫售價。

脫售接獲2億1千571萬令吉現金,加上贖回MVCG可贖回優先股的2億5千萬令吉,和3千395萬3千令吉的公司之間債務,扣除認購新股的870萬令吉,怡保花園自以上脫售釋放高達4億9千零96萬3千令吉的總現金。

4.3億投資產業
怡保花園將把其中4億3千570萬令吉的所得,用作發展與投資產業。

同時將5千500萬令吉作為回饋股東的特別股息派發,並在完成脫售的3個月內支付。餘下資金估計為脫售費用。
這項脫售主要為怡保花園與子公司合理化與簡化集團業務,將所有零售產業歸納KRIS資產名下,加強谷中城商場的整體管理和行銷效益,並節省營運成本。


Source/转贴/Extract/: biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:26/03/11

证券投资者协会:Spice i2i若购业界顶尖公司 有望成市值上十亿元公司

(2011-03-26)
Spice i2i如果成功收购顶尖流动通讯公司,有望成为一家市值上十亿元的公司。

  Spice i2i的部分股东对集团的一系列收购行动存有疑问,包括收购泰国第二大品牌手机生产商和批发商NewTel企业、马来西亚本土手机品牌CSL,并建议收购印度尼西亚的Affinity集团。

  集团并没有详细说明收购原因,因此小股东们对集团的愿景感到不解。

  新加坡证券投资者协会(SIAS)主席兼总裁大卫•杰乐(David Gerald)在投资者的要求下,与Spice i2i集团总裁特里帕蒂(Maneesh Tripathi)、集团财务总监和公司投资者关系顾问会面,了解集团最新发展和收购Affinity集团的详情。

  在聆听相关计划后,新加坡证券投资者协会认为公司其实有顾及小股东的利益。小股东们应慎重考虑收购计划,并作出对自身有利的决定。

  新加坡证券投资者协会表示,投资者应该考虑到如果公司成功实现愿景,成功收购业界的顶尖公司,有可能成为上十亿元的公司。

  Spice i2i是印度亿万富翁穆迪(Bhupendra Kumar Modi)掌控的Spice集团旗下的创新科技业务,总部设在新加坡。

  Spice集团于2009年8月,通过新加坡的子公司Spice Innovation Technologies收购立通(MediaRing)的19.8%股权,成为立通的最大股东,去年初立通改名为Spice i2i。



Source/转贴/Extract/: 《联合早报》
Publish date:26/03/11

The Two Faces Of A Disaster – Markets Ripe For Strong Rally?

By Gabriel Gan

The Straits Times Index (STI) has been on a rapid downtrend since it hit a recent high of 3,280 points – some 33 points off the high of 3,313 points reached in November last year. Concerns about rising inflation in Asia and more counter-inflation measures by the Chinese government served to drag the index lower.

True to earlier forecasts made in this publication, the Chinese New Year period did not provide any reprieve in the form of a Chinese New Year rally but hurt the stock markets even more – a phenomenon that has taken place in the last four or five years.

Just when investors thought that the stock market would continue its freefall, the 9.0 magnitude earthquake hit the eastern coast of Japan, taking some 10,000 lives away and destroyed almost anything that stood in its way by the form of a giant tsunami that some said were as high as 23 metres in height.

The earth-shattering disaster caused a 20% plunge in the Nikkei 225 in a matter of two days, but investors were reluctant to pick up cheap stocks even as most Asian bourses fell more than 5% during the course of the Japanese disaster as nobody was sure how the nuclear reactors would react.

It is common knowledge, based on historical events, that the impact of an earthquake is short-term in nature and would often lead to a knee-jerk sell-off followed by a strong rebound. But it was the nuclear reactors that caused concerns, as nobody knew if it would lead to a nuclear holocaust or a radiation leak that would immediately lead to human deaths.

Earthquake – A Bane Or Boon?
From a humanitarian point of view, nobody wants to witness much less experience an earthquake and/or a tsunami. We have seen how deadly a tsunami could be when an undersea earthquake triggered a tsunami in the Indian Ocean that took away hundreds of thousands of lives on 26 December 2004.

The current tragedy in Japan is heart-wrenching and images of the disaster send shivers down the spines of people who watched it but disaster aside, the correction in the stock markets could just be what was needed to end the freefall that Asian bourses have been experiencing.

As mentioned earlier, Asian bourses have been dropping since January without a respite and, more often than not, a major one-off selling – a final capitulation – is needed to end the melee. Of course, nobody wanted a final capitulation to arrive in such a manner where human lives were lost and we are now in a rally mode that may or may not last once economic realities sink in.

An earthquake is, of course, a bane because of the lives and properties lost while, from a stock market point of view, the big correction is just what was needed to spark off a rally.

Japan has pumped in billions of dollars to stabilize the financial markets in the aftermath of the earthquake and will commit billions more to rebuild the area wrecked by the earthquake. Many people believe that the money will come in handy in helping the Japanese economy get out of its rut, as the rebuilding efforts will benefit many companies that will be handed contracts.

On the other hand, Japan’s public debt is now in the sky-high region hence pumping more money into the financial system and rebuilding efforts may lead to detrimental effects in the long run. In the short-term, however, the earthquake-hit area is a major car-producing area and that means carmakers may suffer as a result of the plant closures while high-end electronic component-makers in Japan will cause a supply-shortage due to the disruption in the supply chain and this may ultimately cause more damage to the tech sector which is struggling to find components that used to be supplied by the Japanese.

Back To Economic Realities
It is often known that an incident is becoming “less important” when the media stops hogging the headlines with related news and events. As of current, we are reading and seeing lesser news pertaining to the Japanese disaster, which is good news because it is likely that the issue is blowing over and the Japanese are now focusing on picking up the pieces instead of fighting fire like it did weeks ago.

Assuming status quo without the disaster having happened, most stock markets are either lower or slightly lower than when compared to the period before the disaster struck.

Do remember that before the disaster struck, the global stock market was faced with unrest in the Middle East and North Africa although much of it has subsided with the exception of Libya now facing relentless bombing by the Allies.

The unrest in the oil-producing region lifted oil prices above US$100 a barrel, which is an unwanted problem, now that most economies in the world are trying to fend off inflation amid an environment where growth – Asia excluded – is anemic.

This brings us back to the pre-earthquake problems of high oil prices, growing inflation, possible measures to cool growth and how to promote growth without fueling inflation.

As a matter of fact, the inflation-theme has been the one hurting Asian markets that have generally outperformed the developed markets in Europe and US. It is evident that funds are flowing out of Asia and into the developed markets, as investors are concerned about how Asian governments would deal with inflation while the developed markets have yet to come to the “bridge of inflation” and its economic growth is likely to pick up pace in the coming quarters.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has admitted that the pace of growth has surprised on the upside while inflation, once treated as a non-event, may threaten the growth especially if oil prices continue to climb hence Allied intervention is required in Libya to try and control the situation.

Most importantly, however, is how the Chinese government can continue to maintain growth while keeping prices in check. Recent data has suggested that there is some form of success in hitting inflation right on its head but more success is needed before the Chinese government can announce that the fight against inflation has ended. This task is made even more difficult with the Chinese needing more and more resources and energy to develop its massive railway project as well as infrastructural development in the less-developed areas, not forgetting the Japanese are also in the market now searching for resources to rebuild the quake-hit area.

Oversold Rally To Continue But For How Long?
The oversold rally looks set to continue especially now that there is good news coming out from Japan. The US economy is picking up speed and moving into a higher gear hence these good news will likely support the stock markets for the time being.

Beyond this period, we should focus on the central theme of fighting inflation while keeping growth intact. Continue to look out for China and US, as mentioned in the previous issue of this publication, and the Middle East situation.

The STI has now climbed above 3,000 points and will be looking to stay above this psychological support while resistance should arrive once the index reaches the 3,050-3,080 region. Unless the index can clear 3,100 points convincingly, we should be glad if the 3,000 level is not broken once again.


Source/转贴/Extract/: http://www.sharesinv.com/
Publish date:25/03/11

S-Chips: To Buy Or Not To Buy?

By Jade Lee

The scandals of S-chips, or China companies listed on the Singapore Exchange, are no strangers to Singaporean investors. Recently, the trading suspensions of China Hongxing Sports and Hongwei Technologies over accounting irregularities have again raised the concerns on how the financial statements of these S-chips are being handled.

Interestingly, one distinctive characteristic about these S-chips is that they hold a lot of cash. This is evident from the financial statements of China Hongxing Sports and Hongwei Technologies, which had Rmb1,738m and Rmb145m respectively as at 30 Sep-10. As such, investors are spooked by two basic questions: Is the cash really there at all? And is it true that buying into an S-chip, will generally turn into a bad investment strategy?

Fundamental Analysis Says More?
The scandals of the ‘Eight Beauties’, namely Sino Environment Technology Group, China Milk Product Holdings, Jiutian Chemical Group, Ferrochina, Celestial Nutrifood, Fibrechem Technologies, China Sun-Biochem and Beauty China, as well as the recent cases of China Hongxing Sports and Hongwei Technologies, all of which were former market darlings, have undoubtedly been weakening investor interest in S-chips. Nonetheless, investors are advised to delve deep into the fundamental side of the S-chips.

Remarkably, the 1999 vintage has yielded the biggest number of S-chip outperformers, with shipbuilder, COSCO Corporation (Singapore) (COSCO) and toll road operator, China Merchant Pacific Holdings (CMPH) among the top 10 best performers. Safely to say, these state-backed Chinese companies were the first batch of S-chips to land on local shores, and arguably, the quality control then was more stringent.

Regardless of the victory record, investors’ confidence might be shaken by COSCO’s recent cancellation of a 79,500-tonne dry bulk carrier in tandem with a 1.1% drop in its share price. However, the good news is that the cancellation penalty has translated into an immediate gain of between US$12.5m-US$15m for COSCO. Besides, DBS Vickers believes that this is just a one-off cancellation as it is uncommon for ship-owners to cancel an order during construction.

Just a few weeks ago, CMPH also posted a 37% jump in its FY10 earnings to HK$267.4m, underpinned by higher traffic volume and toll revenue. Furthermore, the firm is in the process of obtaining the relevant PRC governmental approvals for the proposed acquisition of Yongtaiwen Expressway, which is expected to boost the firm’s toll road profits in FY11 upon completion. Also encouraging, the aforesaid 2 companies paid good dividends.

There are some other non-state-owned companies with strong management, solid business model and excellent track record, taking the example of Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) and Yanlord Land Group. Notably, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, China’s third-largest shipyard outside state control has seen its revenue and earnings increase consistently at a CAGR of 53.5% and 63.2% respectively from FY04-FY10. Furthermore, its competitive advantages include prompt delivery and high cost efficiency.

Pure China property play Yanlord Land on the other hand, has also seen its share price weighed by China’s recent property cooling measures, plunging 16% to $1.41 since Jan-11. However, Deutsche Bank said Yanlord should be less affected by China’s latest tightening policies compared to its peers due to its greater revenue diversification. It added that Yanlord has good margin performance and a strong balance sheet.

Detecting Red Flags
As you may sympathize, many of the minority shareholders in all of the companies above as well as China Hongxing Sports & Hongwei Technologies have invested in good beliefs. As such, is there any method for those investors with limited analytical skill in detecting the potential red flag on S-chips?

To put it simply, a company that has a lot of cash but refuses to give out handsome dividend may prompt the question on whether the cash is there in the first place, as in the case of China Milk. David Gerald, the president of Securities Investors Association (Singapore), said that companies with burgeoning cash balances should provide reasons why they are not declaring a cash dividend.

Moreover, many S-chips are making cash calls even though they are already cash-rich. As such, this could be an indication that the management lacks capital discipline or that the company’s growth is not sustainable. Furthermore, an ‘unreasonably high’ capital expenditure (capex) also signals that the firm may poorly manage their manufacturing capacity and their budget. More often, an unreasonably high capex is often linked to other issues such as inflated profits.

To top things off, JPMorgan Chase (JPMC) indicated that half of the S-chips are audited by a ‘Big Four’ accounting firm. And by contrast, three-quarters of Hong Kong-listed China firms do so. Astonishingly, the firms which do not hire ‘Big Four’ auditors are 60% more likely to fail than those who do, added JPMC.

Finding The Hidden Gems
Undeniably, S-chips as a group is still very much underpriced and offers a reasonable margin of safety. And it would not be realistic to assume that all China-linked companies have accounting issues. We shall not forget that even the Europeans and Americans have their fair share of corporate scandals.

Without doubt, it becomes increasingly difficult to find profitable investment avenues when markets are directionless and the prospects appear bleak. However, not all S-chips are “rotten”. Dig a bit deeper as gems are only for those who have sharp-eyes or are wise enough to find them.

The scandals of S-chips, or China companies listed on the Singapore Exchange, are no strangers to Singaporean investors. Recently, the trading suspensions of China Hongxing Sports and Hongwei Technologies over accounting irregularities have again raised the concerns on how the financial statements of these S-chips are being handled.

Interestingly, one distinctive characteristic about these S-chips is that they hold a lot of cash. This is evident from the financial statements of China Hongxing Sports and Hongwei Technologies, which had Rmb1,738m and Rmb145m respectively as at 30 Sep-10. As such, investors are spooked by two basic questions: Is the cash really there at all? And is it true that buying into an S-chip, will generally turn into a bad investment strategy?

Fundamental Analysis Says More?
The scandals of the ‘Eight Beauties’, namely Sino Environment Technology Group, China Milk Product Holdings, Jiutian Chemical Group, Ferrochina, Celestial Nutrifood, Fibrechem Technologies, China Sun-Biochem and Beauty China, as well as the recent cases of China Hongxing Sports and Hongwei Technologies, all of which were former market darlings, have undoubtedly been weakening investor interest in S-chips. Nonetheless, investors are advised to delve deep into the fundamental side of the S-chips.

Remarkably, the 1999 vintage has yielded the biggest number of S-chip outperformers, with shipbuilder, COSCO Corporation (Singapore) (COSCO) and toll road operator, China Merchant Pacific Holdings (CMPH) among the top 10 best performers. Safely to say, these state-backed Chinese companies were the first batch of S-chips to land on local shores, and arguably, the quality control then was more stringent.

Regardless of the victory record, investors’ confidence might be shaken by COSCO’s recent cancellation of a 79,500-tonne dry bulk carrier in tandem with a 1.1% drop in its share price. However, the good news is that the cancellation penalty has translated into an immediate gain of between US$12.5m-US$15m for COSCO. Besides, DBS Vickers believes that this is just a one-off cancellation as it is uncommon for ship-owners to cancel an order during construction.

Just a few weeks ago, CMPH also posted a 37% jump in its FY10 earnings to HK$267.4m, underpinned by higher traffic volume and toll revenue. Furthermore, the firm is in the process of obtaining the relevant PRC governmental approvals for the proposed acquisition of Yongtaiwen Expressway, which is expected to boost the firm’s toll road profits in FY11 upon completion. Also encouraging, the aforesaid 2 companies paid good dividends.

There are some other non-state-owned companies with strong management, solid business model and excellent track record, taking the example of Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) and Yanlord Land Group. Notably, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, China’s third-largest shipyard outside state control has seen its revenue and earnings increase consistently at a CAGR of 53.5% and 63.2% respectively from FY04-FY10. Furthermore, its competitive advantages include prompt delivery and high cost efficiency.

Pure China property play Yanlord Land on the other hand, has also seen its share price weighed by China’s recent property cooling measures, plunging 16% to $1.41 since Jan-11. However, Deutsche Bank said Yanlord should be less affected by China’s latest tightening policies compared to its peers due to its greater revenue diversification. It added that Yanlord has good margin performance and a strong balance sheet.

Detecting Red Flags
As you may sympathize, many of the minority shareholders in all of the companies above as well as China Hongxing Sports & Hongwei Technologies have invested in good beliefs. As such, is there any method for those investors with limited analytical skill in detecting the potential red flag on S-chips?

To put it simply, a company that has a lot of cash but refuses to give out handsome dividend may prompt the question on whether the cash is there in the first place, as in the case of China Milk. David Gerald, the president of Securities Investors Association (Singapore), said that companies with burgeoning cash balances should provide reasons why they are not declaring a cash dividend.

Moreover, many S-chips are making cash calls even though they are already cash-rich. As such, this could be an indication that the management lacks capital discipline or that the company’s growth is not sustainable. Furthermore, an ‘unreasonably high’ capital expenditure (capex) also signals that the firm may poorly manage their manufacturing capacity and their budget. More often, an unreasonably high capex is often linked to other issues such as inflated profits.

To top things off, JPMorgan Chase (JPMC) indicated that half of the S-chips are audited by a ‘Big Four’ accounting firm. And by contrast, three-quarters of Hong Kong-listed China firms do so. Astonishingly, the firms which do not hire ‘Big Four’ auditors are 60% more likely to fail than those who do, added JPMC.

Finding The Hidden Gems
Undeniably, S-chips as a group is still very much underpriced and offers a reasonable margin of safety. And it would not be realistic to assume that all China-linked companies have accounting issues. We shall not forget that even the Europeans and Americans have their fair share of corporate scandals.

Without doubt, it becomes increasingly difficult to find profitable investment avenues when markets are directionless and the prospects appear bleak. However, not all S-chips are “rotten”. Dig a bit deeper as gems are only for those who have sharp-eyes or are wise enough to find them.

http://www.sharesinv.com/


Source/转贴/Extract/: http://www.sharesinv.com/
Publish date:25/03/11

中国高纤未经股东批准 擅将资金投入上游项目

(2011-03-26)
因无法确定中国子公司银行存款余额而刚开始停牌的中国高纤(China Gaoxian),昨日再爆未经股东批准便把为数不明的资金投入上游项目。审计师正扩大审计范围,将确认有关资金投入的时间、数额以及其他详情。

  该公司正准备在4月召开特别股东大会,寻求股东批准上游扩充项目。但按新交所挂牌条例,该公司必须先获得股东批准,才能够进行这类项目。

  中国高纤的审计委员会昨日是在答复韩国交易所(KRX)的询问时,披露以上它前天要求股票停牌时未说明的原因。中国高纤的审计委员会前天要求股票停牌时,只表示因为审计师无法确认或证明中国高纤的两家中国子公司的银行存款余额。

  2009年在新交所挂牌上市的中国高纤,今年1月刚在韩国交易所发行存托凭证(KDR),但获得第二个交易所的审核看来并不能保障任何公司的财务健康或企业监管水平。

  中国高纤本周一由于其股票暴跌24%(跌6分,股价收报0.19元)而且交易量飙升达1亿4000万股,而遭新交所询问。它这才要求股票周二开始暂停交易,以待发布消息。但它并没同时暂停其韩国存托凭证的交易,以致该韩国存托凭证的价格在周二大跌15%,报4165韩元(每1存托凭证等于20股)。

  这因此导致市场观察者推测,已有人因担心出现类似其他龙筹股的账目问题而慌忙抛售。中国高纤之后在周四果然透露有关的银行存款余额问题,并进一步要求停牌。

  它周四表示,中国高纤的审计师安永(Ernst & Young)是在审计去年业绩时,无法确认或证明中国高纤两家中国子公司的银行存款余额。有关中国子公司是浙江华港涤纶实业有限公司及福建新华威化纤染织有限公司。

  该公司的审计委员会在昨日答复韩交所针对资金是否已投入于上游扩充项目的问题时则透露,中国高纤执行主席兼总裁曹祥彬已通知审计委员会,虽然说股东还没批准进行该项目,集团的资金已经用于该上游扩充项目(原材料聚酯生产项目)。

  但它并没透露已投入于该上游项目的资金究竟多少。中国高纤的审计委员会在答复中仅表示,审计师正扩大审计范围,以确认有关资金投入的时间、数额以及其他详情。
《联合早报》

Source/转贴/Extract/: 《联合早报》
Publish date:26/03/11

朱大鸣:靠印钞票过日子必出大事

(中国)和讯网 (2011-03-25)

金融危机硝烟散去,但经济依然徘徊在二次探底的边缘,经济结构并没有发生质变,实业过剩与资产过热依然并存于世,很多政要都急红了眼。这些国家只有一个办法,靠印钞票过日子,或者靠找事打仗转移矛盾。

  美日两大经济体,疯狂开动印刷机,向全球泄洪。截至目前,日本央行已累计注资51.8万亿日元。如果按照目前美元对日元1:81的汇率粗略估算,日本央行注入资金相当于6395亿美元,而此前,美国大搞量化宽松货币政策,仅仅第二轮量化宽松就向市场注水6000亿美元。

  海量的货币供应量,造成恶性的通货膨胀,资产价格飞涨,致使大量投机者进入市场,尤其是对能源和有色金属类价格的影响更为巨大,有可能造成比目前还严重的金融泡沫和经济泡沫,灾难也许会比之前更严重。

  最近两年资产价格飞涨,大宗商品继续攀升,特别是原油和黄金,都在继续冲高,粮价也是压力重重,使得各国经济,在面临动力不足的同时,又被高成本侵蚀,真是一病没有治好,又添一病。

  最近有一个说法,中国向美国输出商品,美国向中国输出美钞,我们实在是吃亏。所以,人民币就要升值,而且一次性地升值。但如果真的是这样,恰好上了圈套。我国现在有那么多外汇储备,很多都是美债,其实外汇多并非坏事,可能出问题的在于配置。想当年,日元升值之后,大家都想,钱值钱了,买更多的美货岂不是好事?但事实证明,这种想法最终是推升了日本制造的成本,使得日本制造陷入进退两难的境地。

  我们现在的困境在于,经济动力并没真正的恢复,特别是实业资本并没有真正寻找到新的动力,但是,我们的生活成本上涨和生产成本上涨,是有目共睹的。实业资本缺钱要求货币政策继续宽松,美日都在宽松,目的就是救实业;但是,由于物价成本上涨和资产价格上涨,又迫使我们必须紧缩信贷政策,这是一场对立的矛盾。我们不能像美国和日本那样,没有办法了,只能开动印钞机印钱过日子。印钞过多也会出问题,印钞过多实际上就是偷钱,致使金融市场疯狂至死。

  美国大搞量化宽松,将引起全球金融市场再次动荡。我们可以将油价上涨看成北非和中东政治点燃,但本质上来说,还是国际印钞机开动,到处敛财所致。短期的货币政策,只能是打鸡血治病,将巨额债务留给百姓和后代,这种短视行为将给全球带来灾难。

  一场债务危机,正在悄然逼近,当成本价格被推到高峰再也不能推动的时候,全球性灾难就会来临,我们应当对此早作打算。虽然可能还有一段时间可以折腾,但是这次货币政策埋下的危险,将酝酿更大的经济灾难。

  来源:经济参考报 作者:朱大鸣


Source/转贴/Extract/: 《联合早报》
Publish date:25/03/11

旅游业饱受冲击 东京酒店门可罗雀

(东京法新电)日本三灾为经济带来重大打击,首当其冲就是旅游业。9级地震与海啸引发核危机后,外国人急忙逃离日本,当地人无心玩乐,企业界集体取消会议,东京酒店生意一落千丈。
  据报道,部分酒店暂时关闭酒店内的餐馆和酒吧,有些则缩短酒店或餐厅与酒吧的营业时间,有的酒店甚至暂停营业。

  位于东京市中心的帝国酒店(Imperial Hotel)向来都人潮熙攘,如今酒店大门口灯光昏暗,里面几乎空荡荡,只剩15名员工等着迎接不太可能抵达的客人。

  帝国酒店公关经理小松崎说:“自3月11日后,一切都变了。研讨会、宴会和订房全部取消,尤其是外国人的预约。每年这个时候,我们的预约率高达80%,但现在我们的入住率只有一半左右。”

  他说:“外国人害怕辐射污染。至于日本人,他们担心余震,或来东京的交通会有问题,又或是他们的家人不放心他们来东京旅游。”

  每年这个时候是日本旅游旺季的开始,来自世界各地的游客会到此欣赏漂亮的樱花,可是天灾发生后,多数旅行团都取消了行程,看来成群的游客坐在樱花树下吃喝玩乐一幕今年难现。

  唯一让业者感到安慰的是,需要长时间筹备的婚礼照常举行。不过由于目前日本东北部交通仍然不方便,一些宾客则在海啸中好不容易才捡回一条命,因此婚礼的出席宾客大幅度减少。

  面对宾客流量大减,一些酒店干脆暂停营业。位于东京丸之内商业区的香格里拉酒店(Shangri-La Hotel)就安排旗下的300名员工暂时放有薪假期,直到4月16日才恢复营业。

  该酒店发言人库恩说:“考虑到目前所出现的物流困难、交通和停电问题,我们根本无法为宾客提供我们一贯的高水平服务。”

  其他像是位于闹市的君悦酒店(Grand Hyatt)、柏悦酒店(Park Hyatt)、政府大楼附近的新大谷酒店(New Otani)、文华东方酒店(Mandarin Oriental)或是半岛酒店(Peninsula),也纷纷关闭餐厅和酒吧,或缩短营业时间。

不少旅行社指出,受影响最大的是以外国宾客为主的酒店,因为灾难发生之后,许多欧洲和美国游客在第一时间离开了东京,至今还没有回返的现象。

  法国一家旅游机构的经理克劳德说,地震给旅游业带来的影响是可怕的。他估计,原本计划到日本旅游的客人,90%都取消了行程。而且,这样的趋势可能会持续今年一整年。

Source/转贴/Extract/:《联合早报》
Publish date:25/03/11

Warren Buffett interview on how he loves to do business on ET NOW



Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:25/03/11

Warren Buffett's investment advice



Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:24/3/11

巴菲特:欧元崩溃非不可想象

2011/03/25 5:51:40 PM
●南洋商报

(班加罗尔25日讯)葡萄牙财政危机令欧元再度承压,股神巴菲特在印度表示,欧元崩溃并不是“不可想象”,欧元区各国的财政政策应该更加协调一致。

“足够的压力会让欧元崩溃,我知道有些人认为这不可想象。我不认为是不可想象,我认为未来需要付出‘巨大的努力’来阻止这件事发生。”巴菲特接受美国CNBC电视台访问时如是说。

巴菲特认为,欧元区各国政府的财政政策应该更加协调一致。“你不能让3个、4个或5个国家一直不担风险,搭其他国家的顺风车,那样长期难以为继,他们的财政政策应该更为合理、协调。”

“欧元崩溃不是世界末日的到来。”巴菲特认为,欧元解体并不会摧毁一个国家,货币危机历史上是时有发生,譬如韩国经历90年代的货币危机后目前经济发展很好,“只是需要作出一些调整”。

巴菲特续指,如果欧元崩溃,市场对个别国家货币反应如何很难预期,也就很难评估投资者可能面临损失。他自谦对欧元不甚了解,“我不投资我所不懂的”。

Source/转贴/Extract/:南洋商报
Publish date:25/03/11

Friday, March 25, 2011

2011-0323-57金錢爆(黃金法老王的詛咒)















Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:23/03/11

因禍得福‧投資者湧入日股

Created 03/24/2011 - 19:30

儘管日本經歷史上損失最慘重的天災,投資者卻紛紛湧入日本股市。

根據TrimTabs Investment Research,持有日股的指數基金(ETF)災後一週投入日本的資金達12億美元,創下新記錄。這些資金讓日本基金總資產金額一舉向上攀升20%。

這股購買潮顯示,投資者相信這場奪走上千人性命的災難,隨著日本重建多數基礎建設和東北海岸,將率領日本邁向經濟成長之路。

JP摩根分析師預期日本的國內生產總值(GDP)將在下半年因為重建開始成長,在今年最後3個月達到4%成長。對日本而言,超過2%的成長率就算很大。

日經指數在2天內因恐慌賣壓大跌16%,達到2008年金融危機以來最谷底,隨後迅速走揚,在16日上漲5.6%,22日攀升4.3%。日經指數自地震發生後,目前下滑7.8%。

日2月迎回貿盈

日本2月出口年增9%,優於上月的年增1.4%和市場預期的8.6%,經季調後月增4.4%。進口年增9.9%,大幅超過市場預期的4.4%。貿易盈餘為6千541億日圓,落後市場預期的8千945億日圓。因為對中國和其他亞洲國家的出口大幅下滑,日本1月寫下近22個月以來第一筆貿易赤字。

核災恐推升天然氣價格

美國銀行認為,日本將依靠利用其他能源的發電站來彌補核電站關閉造成的電力短缺,預計每天將會增加進口液化天然氣7.06億立方英尺。估計日本增加天然氣進口量的預期推高全球的天然氣價格。

歐美日車企停產

由於擔心日本製造的關鍵零部件可能短缺,在美國和歐洲,通用汽車、豐田汽車和標致雪鐵龍集團紛紛削減或計劃抑制上千輛汽車的產能。豐田告誡員工,預計將在美國和加拿大停止生產某些車型,因為來自日本供應商的某些零部件出現短缺,“時間的長短目前還不確定”。


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source/转贴/Extract/: biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:25/03/11

Under-performing stocks boost yields

In our previous piece on select stocks that currently offer higher-than-market average yields, we highlighted White Horse Bhd, one of the leading manufacturers of ceramic and homogeneous tiles in the country.

White Horse has performed very well over the past three years, recovering smartly from the sharp decline in 2006-2007. Net profit expanded from RM38.4 million in 2007 to RM69.1 million in 2010, equivalent to a compounded growth rate of more than 21.6% per annum.

We are fairly sanguine on the outlook for the industry, despite the intense competition, including from imported tiles. Demand is expected to remain robust over the next year or two at least, given the property boom, which started near end-2009. There is typically a time lag before a property launch translates into demand for tiles, which comes into play towards the end of the project.

The positive environment should also bode well for Yi-Lai Bhd, another listed tiles manufacturer on the local bourse. The company started operations back in 1990, setting up a manufacturing facility in Kulai, Johor and producing tiles under the brand name “Alpha”.

Worst may be over for Yi-Lai
Yi-Lai’s earnings track record, however, has been less robust compared with that for White Horse. After hitting a high of RM27.7 million in 2005, net profit dipped sharply to RM17.6 million in 2007. Earnings continued to decline in 2008-2009. The recovery did not begin until last year when margins steadied and net profit rebounded to RM15.3 million from a low of RM11.8 million in 2009.


As a result, its shares have under-performed the broader market although the stock has recouped some lost ground over the past one year. Its share price rebounded from a low of about 70 sen in mid-2010 to the current 90 sen.

The worst could be over for the stock, which is now trading well below its net assets of RM1.26 per share. Indeed, expectations of a sustained earnings recovery coupled with a high dividend payout are likely to bolster its appeal to investors.

Yi-Lai has maintained generous dividends
Despite earnings weakness in the past few years, Yi-Lai’s dividend payments have been less affected, thanks to the company’s strong balance sheet. Annual net dividends have held fairly steady, averaging at roughly 6.7 sen per share over the past four years. Its net cash stood at RM50.6 million or roughly 32 sen per share at end-2010, which is sufficient to maintain this level of dividends for almost five years.




Assuming dividends totalling seven sen per share for the current year, investors would earn an attractive net yield of 7.8% whilst P/E valuation for the stock is fairly modest at an estimated 9.3 times earnings.

Recent selldown lowers valuations and raises yields for Masterskill
Another stock expected to offer investors higher-than-market average yield, driven by the sharp decline in its share price is Masterskill Education Group Bhd.

The stock has fallen well off its peak of RM4.25 last year, depressed by a confluence of factors. These include uncertainty over potential cutbacks in the National Higher Education Fund Corp (PTPTN) loan scheme, selldown by foreign investors as well as some delays in the opening of its new campuses. Still, despite its share price weakness, the company’s earnings have met market expectations. Revenue was up 15% to RM315.7 million in 2010 while net profit grew 5% to RM102.1 million or 24.9 sen per share.

Its outlook appears upbeat. The education industry, as a whole, is widely viewed as recession-proof and prospects for growth are good. The company, which offers a wide range of higher education and training services in nursing and health services, expects to maintain earnings growth on the back of campus expansion plans and rising student numbers. It recently secured approval for programmes for its new campuses in Kuching and Seri Alam, Johor, from the Higher Education Ministry. In a related development, the government recently indicated that repayments for study loans under the PTPTN have improved in the past three years. This bodes well for Masterskill. The national fund is in deep deficit, raising concerns on its future funding capability — which is the primary source of financing for the majority of students undertaking Masterskill courses.

Some of the measures undertaken include the transfer of loan collection responsibility to the Internal Revenue Department last May, so that repayments could be made through salary deductions. PTPTN is also developing a loan management system, to be completed next year, to further improve and enhance repayments.

Masterskill targets to pay out 50%-60% of net profit
Masterskill has a relatively generous dividend policy, with a target payout of 50%-60% of annual net profit. We estimate dividends to total 13.6 sen per share for the current year, assuming a 50% earnings payout. That would translate into an attractive net yield of 7.3% at the prevailing price of RM1.85.

Steady cashflow from operations and a strong balance sheet would support both the company’s expansion plans and dividend payout. Net cash totalled RM99.4 million at end-2010 or roughly 24.3 sen per share.

The recent selldown has driven Masterskill’s valuations lower — forward P/E estimated at just about 6.8 times — well below that of peers HELP International Corp Bhd and SEG International Bhd as well as the broader market’s average valuations.


Note: This report is brought to you by Asia Analytica Sdn Bhd, a licensed investment adviser. Please exercise your own judgment or seek professional advice for your specific investment needs. We are not responsible for your investment decisions. Our shareholders, directors and employees may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned.


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, March 25, 2011.



Source/转贴/Extract/: www.theedgemalaysia.com
Publish date:25/03/11

“日重建主題”熱炒‧股價衝太快‧風險升溫

Created 03/25/2011 - 18:30

(吉隆坡25日訊)日本大地震災後重建工作蓄勢待發,亞洲股市重建題材股發熱,馬股受惠股在即時反應後,目前趨平靜,但隨重建正式啟動,潛在受惠題材備受投資者追捧,但分析員認為,災後重建效益可能需時半年方能逐步發酵,股價恐已過度衝高,投資風險有升溫跡象,投資者宜見好即收。

能源、木材、油氣等
原料需求上升

分析員指出,日本抗震重點轉向災後重建,意味著能源、木材、油氣、重機等原料需求有望上升,馬股直接的建築公司由於沒有涉足日本,所以難以受惠,大馬的重建題材股,傾向二手的原物料供應。

亞洲目前開始熱炒重建概念股,日本的建築公司股價都飆漲。分析員樂觀認為,除非核廠方面有壞消息,否則股市應該在收復失地並回揚。

馬股建材股收獲最大

馬股的日本重建題材,以領域計,木材和鋼鐵等建材領域最大贏家,在重建過程中,日本對營建和工業金屬的需求將帶動相關類股的走勢。

目前,日本進口50%夾板產品應付國內需求,而大馬是日本最大夾板出口國,相信重建會令需求暴增,隨著夾板產量和進口增加,其他木基產品需求也有望水漲船高。

核發電電力不足
須進口原油天然氣彌補供應

此外,分析員認為,日本三分之一電力供應來自核電,而福島核電廠危機也引發了電力不足的問題,因此日本勢必得採用其他的替代方案,進口原油、天然氣等傳統燃料,以彌補電力短缺問題,而短期提高這些資源的進口,也會造成天然氣和熱燃煤的價格水漲船高。

日本目前是大馬天然氣主要進口國之一,重建將使需求增加,根據市場消息,日本已經接觸國家石油,購買原油供燃油發電廠使用。

“日本政府重建計劃雖將刺激建材需求,給予市場炒作空間,但日本災後重建,主要涉及產品檔次較高的建材類股份,而大馬仍以生產中低價產品居多,從中獲益的程度值得商榷,炒作重建概念股浪潮可維持多久值得關注。”

或引發更巨大通膨壓力

基金經理認為,雖然木材和油氣領域將可從日本重建活動中受惠,但同時卻也可能引發更巨大的通膨壓力,令企業陷入更大的風險當中。

“全球大災難後的重建活動,往往需要3至4個月後才能啟動,實際的需求可能在半年後才逐漸釋放,但股市卻往往走在前端,重建受惠或受地震影響的股項已被投資者借題發揮炒作一番,其中木材股、油氣股均見上升。”

他說,由於日本發生核泄漏事件,核能發電受影響,未來雖可能增加石油或其他替代能源進口,但日本是全球第三大經濟體,地震可能對其經濟成長產生影響,因此油價是否具平抑作用尚需要評估,炒高油氣股可能面對特定的風險。

“短期內,部份行業的供需狀況因日本出口增長而有變化,但中長期實難以扭轉大形勢,因此投資者短期炒作受惠股宜見好即收。”

震後
外資買入日股創新高

日本財務省數據顯示,日本大地震後至18日截止,當週外資買入日股規模達8千910億日圓(110億美元),創下2005年有比較數據以來最高紀錄。

財務省官員說:“參考比較數據,這顯然上是史上最高水平。”

全球股市回到震前水平

另外,全球股市也從日震驚魂中回神,摩指世界所有國家指數24日在倫敦午盤上漲0.4%,是連續第六天上漲,創2010年9月來最長漲勢,也漲回日本震災前水平。

Kempen資本管理公司資深基金經理狄葛拉夫表示,市場氣氛依然相當好,對整體市場仍維持溫和樂觀。

消化地震和高油價
亞股回揚

亞洲股市渡過日震風暴後,現在開始因為重建憧憬而回揚,本週股市創下去年11月以來當週最大漲勢;週五因隔夜美股走揚,以及投資者憧憬日本重建將帶動原料需求成長,促使亞洲股市普遍高開高走,漲幅介於0.11%和2.08%。

就業市場改善,加上投資者看好企業財報前景,帶動美股全線高收,道瓊斯工商指數收報12170點,升84.54點。

澳洲首域環球資產管理公司投資主管史蒂芬表示,美國部份經濟表現依舊良好,預見部份投資者已從日本地震和油價上漲恢復過來,並開始轉向風險交易中。

“明顯的,全球經濟仍處於復甦模式,而我們今年和明年可能取得相對體面的成長。”

受上述利好因素支撐,亞洲股市今日普遍收高,日本的小松重機就因為重建需要,股價大起,日圓趨貶,帶動新力等等出口類股走高,也激勵股市走揚,日經指數漲1.07%;韓股則由科技、航運類股領軍上揚0.85%。

兩岸三地股市同樣表現亮眼,港股在金融股領軍高升,恒生指數收報23158.67點,升243.39點;滬深股市開盤延續弱勢震蕩整理格局,後在銀行、地產以及消費類股聯袂推動下震蕩走高,終場起31.11點至2977.81點。

台股週五以漲68.97點的8645.37點開出,隨後在半導體類股強勢表現下,帶領指數向上攻堅,盤中收復8600點失土,加權指數閉市上揚33.99點,收在8610.39點。

馬股尾隨區域股市走高,以起2.07點的1515.91點開出,隨後在金融類股領導下,進一步擴大漲勢,最高起4.58點至1518.42點,終場報1515.55點,起1.71點。

投資者看好日本災後重建將提振需求,油氣類股備受追捧,埃索(ESSO, 3042, 主板工業產品組)漲31仙至3令吉80仙,貝利賽(PERISAI, 0047, 主板工業產品組)報76仙,起3仙。


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source/转贴/Extract/:http://biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:25/03/11

Sale of AIMS Reit's Japan property completed

Business Times - 25 Mar 2011


Sale of AIMS Reit's Japan property completed

By MINDY TAN

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial Reit has completed the sale of Asahi Ohmiya Warehouse - at an effectively lower price of 1.483 billion yen (S$23 million).

The price of the warehouse was effectively reduced from 1.49 billion yen after a joint inspection by the interested parties and an independent engineer indicated 6.9 million yen worth of repairs were required on the property following the massive earthquake on March 11.

The completion of the sale of the warehouse, which is located about 345 km from the epicentre of the earthquake, was earlier delayed pending inspections.

The trust said in late February that it was selling the property to 'free up capital to provide the trust with greater financial flexibility for future investment opportunities'. It added that the sale was consistent with the manager's strategy to dispose of its single Japan-based asset.

The net sale proceeds, after repayment of a 989 million yen debt and payment of sale-related costs, will be used to reduce aggregate leverage from 33.6 per cent to 32 per cent.

Based on valuations obtained as at Sept 30, 2010, AIMS Reit consisted of 26 industrial properties located throughout Singapore and one property in Japan (Asahi Ohmiya Warehouse), with an appraised total value of $803.9 million.

Reits with Japanese exposure have been in the spotlight this fortnight.

Saizen Reit sold Johnan Building III in Fukuoka to an independent private investor for about $4.9 million. The building accounted for about 0.9 per cent of the trust's revenue for the financial year ended June 30 last year. It is not expected to have a material impact on the trust's financial position.

Proceeds will be used for the partial repayment of a loan that had gone into maturity default in November 2009.

Mapletree Logistics last announced that 13 of its 14 Japanese properties escaped with either no or minimal damage. It was estimated that the worst hit, Sendai Centre, would cost some $9 million to reinstate.

Frasiers Commercial Trust's three properties in Tokyo and Osaka are intact with minimal damage. Ebara Techno-Serve Headquarters Building and Galleria Otemae Building in Tokyo and Osaka respectively, incurred minor damage with estimated costs of 1.25 million yen as at March 14.

Starhill Global Reit has seven malls in Tokyo. The manager stated that there was no known damage to the malls.

The AIMS AMP Reit counter closed at 20.5 cents yesterday, up half a cent.

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:25/03/11

Industrial S-Reits' expansion into China poses risk: Moody's

Business Times - 25 Mar 2011


Industrial S-Reits' expansion into China poses risk: Moody's

By TAN SHIHAO SEAN

AS industrial Singapore real estate investment trusts (S-Reits) look at spreading their wings to China, Moody's Investors Service (MIS) has cautioned about the legal and regulatory risks they face.

In a report on the business risks which industrial S-Reits will face in China, associate analyst Alvin Tan of MIS, a wholly owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Corporation, said: 'Moving into China would have negative credit implications, given the uncertainties associated with entering an unfamiliar market and the associated regulatory risk, which could nullify the potential gains of geographical diversification.'

Mr Tan said that China's financial, tax, and legal frameworks are still in their infancy, which could have a number of negative ramifications, such as the regulatory risk related to tax policies on profits, the enforcement of lease contracts, and land ownership issues, as well as foreign-exchange risk for the repatriation of capital.

On why industrial S-Reits are seeking expansion into new regions, the MIS report said the competition for industrial properties in Singapore is intensifying. S-Reits' growing risk appetite and the low interest rate environment have exacerbated the competitive pressure.

Another push factor is that the large supply of new industrial properties opening up over the next two years may limit rental growth in the medium term.

'In their search for higher yields, the industrial S-Reits are now looking at expanding into new regions,' said Mr Tan, 'with several of the S-Reits identifying China, the world's fifth most active real-estate investment market, as a possibility.'

There are of course 'positive factors', said Mr Tan, but they 'could mitigate, but not fully offset, the impact of these negatives'.

The merits of overseas diversification include lessening the S-Reits' geographic exposure to Singapore. And those with sponsors that have already established a presence abroad could tap into their sponsors' China-related experience to reduce the risk associated with operations in a complex regulatory environment.

Also, the acquisition of overseas properties with long-term leases and rental guarantees would provide additional income and stability to medium-term operating results.



Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:25/03/11

Yet another S-chip bites audit dust

Business Times - 25 Mar 2011


Yet another S-chip bites audit dust

Auditors of China Gaoxian unable to verify bank balances at its China units

By LYNETTE KHOO

(SINGAPORE) Accounting irregularities have surfaced in yet another S-chip - China Gaoxian, confirming investors' fears over what triggered its trading halt.

The latest development comes barely a month after two other S-chips or Chinese companies listed here, China Hongxing and Hongwei Technologies, also flagged similar accounting problems.

In its disclosure yesterday, China Gaoxian said that its auditors Ernst & Young could not verify or confirm the bank balances for two Chinese subsidiaries for the fiscal year ended Dec 31, 2010.

'The audit committee (AC) has instructed the auditors to carry out an expanded scope of its audit,' said the group's audit committee chairman, Chan Kam Loon.

Mr Chan, a former head of listings at the Singapore Exchange, said that the AC has also met executive chairman and CEO Cao Xiangbin, who indicated that he would cooperate and instruct the management to do the same.

The group has requested a trading suspension of its shares here, following a trading halt since Tuesday and a trading halt of its Korean Depository Receipts (KDRs) since Wednesday.

Yesterday, SGX also directed Hongwei to appoint special auditors, given the group's inability to clarify its state of affairs 'despite the severity and urgency of the situation'.

Auditors at Hongwei and China Hongxing could not finalise their audit for the 2010 financial year as they could not confirm certain cash and bank balances.

Reflecting increased concern over accounting issues cropping up at some S-chips, SGX sent out reminders to ACs of all S-chips this week, instructing them to undertake an internal review and report to the exchange by May 31.

SGX also asked the ACs to make sure that the Articles of Association at key Chinese subsidiaries gives them the ability to hire or fire legal representatives.

While market watchers welcome the latest directives from SGX, some are circumspect about the effectiveness of these measures.

Securities Investors Association Singapore (SIAS) president David Gerald noted that these initiatives 'do not go far enough to meet the practical difficulties faced by directors and auditors to seek accountability and trace the funds parked in accounts outside Singapore'.

A classic case was Sino-Environment, which faced difficulties repatriating funds from a China bank account to Singapore, after questionable cash transactions were uncovered. Its judicial managers have since sought a court order to freeze the China account.

There must be the willingness on the part of the majority shareholder and senior management to cooperate with the Singapore authorities and the auditors, Mr Gerald said. He suggested that a mechanism be in place for at least one independent director to authorise any funds raised in Singapore to be transferred to an overseas account.

Then, there is the problem of uncooperative legal representatives, which reared its ugly head in recent times at companies such as Falmac, Tat Hong and Millennium & Copthorne.

In China, every registered company has a legal representative who holds the company seal that gives legal capacity to make and execute agreements, provide guarantees and transfer assets.

But problems arise when the legal representative abuses that power, refuses to step down or surrender the company seal.

While there is legal recourse that companies can seek in China, the actual implementation is unevenly applied across different local jurisdictions, said Lin Song, co-head of international China practice at KhattarWong.

To register a new legal representative, the company seal is still required and only the registered legal representative can apply for a new seal, though some courts may adopt a more flexible approach.

Still, it would be useful to review the whole constitution of the group of companies to identify areas that do not provide protection to shareholders and make amendments, he said.

'With the recent scandals, it has become more urgent for listed companies, especially for S-chips, to look at this issue,' Mr Lin added.

Chia Kim Huat, a partner at Rajah & Tann, pointed out that 'the right to remove legal representative is one thing but to implement it is another thing'.

But he is against the idea of parking working capital, other than surplus cash, outside China where the companies' key operations are, as that would be 'killing the business to catch the thief'.


Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:25/03/11

S-Chips (DMG)

Scoop of the Day: China Gaoxian announced yesterday that its auditors Ernst & Young could not verify or confirm the bank balances for two Chinese subsidiaries for the fiscal year ended 31 Dec 2010. Its Audit Committee has instructed the auditors to carry out an expanded scope of its audit and intends to use its best endeavours to take practicable measures to safeguard the Group's assets. China Gaoxian requested to convert its trading halt into a trading suspension.

This latest accounting irregularity will likely continue to weigh on sentiment towards S-Chip counters. However, we note that FSTC index returned +1% over a month period post China Hongxing’s trading halt (versus the average -2%, or -5% ex- positive returns, that we observed for seven previous high-profile S-Chips i.e. FerroChina, China Printing&Dyeing, Fibrechem, Beauty China, Celestial NutriFoods and China Milk).

We continue to see opportunities to accumulate quality S-Chips. This would include companies with consistent track records, perceived strong major shareholders and management oversights, sound industry outlooks, and/or financial statements that have recently been scrutinised by reputable private equity investors (e.g. Blackstone and Carlyle), another stock exchange supervisory body (e.g. HKSE) and Big Four auditors. Companies with such characteristics under our coverage include China Animal Healthcare (BUY, S$0.48), China Fishery (NEUTRAL, S$2.18), China Minzhong (BUY, S$2.08), and Midas (BUY, S$1.20).

Source/转贴/Extract/: DMG & Partners
Publish date:25/03/11

Gamuda EARNINGS EVALUATION (HLG)

Gamuda (HOLD , EPS )
Price Target: RM3.63 ()
Share price: RM3.79
EARNINGS EVALUATION
2H results

Results  2Q11 revenue came in at RM607.2m with PATMI of RM94m translating to EPS of 4.59 sen/share and diluted EPS of 4.39 sen/share.

Deviations
 Annualised 6M11 revenue was 16% and 7% short of consensus estimates and ours respectively.

 Annualised PATMI was 5% shy of consensus but 7% above our estimates. This is due to new accounting treatment of IC12 interpretation for SPLASH earnings and higher than expected margins achieved by the group.

Dividends
 No dividends declared (1Q11: net dividend of 5.25 sen).

Highlights
 Construction margins continued to expand in 2Q and this allowed the division’s earnings to grow on a QoQ and YoY basis despite the drop in revenue.

 The EDTP progress remained flat (from 54% to 58% completed) but Yenso Park activities picked-up in pace (from 57% to 72% completed).

 Management explained that the EOT for EDTP will be beneficiary for Gamuda because it removes LAD risks, and opens up opportunities for additional compensation claims. Moreover, the additional year extended would be for signalling and communications works which are of lower margins compared to the civil works.

 Active outstanding order book as of 2Q11 is at RM3.2bn, translating to 1.8x FY10’s construction revenue.

 Property division continued to do very well, buoyed by sales in Bandar Botanic, Horizon Hills and Jade Hills. However new sales did cool off after a record breaking of RM350m in the previous quarter to RM250m. Unbilled sales increased to RM840m, translating to 1.6x FY10’s property revenue.

 Celadon City, Ho Chi Minh, is set for full launch in April and management has projected sales of US$100m for FY11. Currently, 159 units of apartment have been booked with each unit selling between US$70k-130k.

 As for Gamuda City, Hanoi, partial handover of residential land parcels commenced from March onwards and ground works have proceeded. Launches are set to take-off in July 2011 beginning with landed property developments.

 Gamuda has invested US$350m in their Vietnam property venture till date. The recent devaluation of the VND will see Gamuda take an 8% provision at the balance sheet level.

 The water debacle remains at an impasse.

 Overall, the management is confident of surpassing earnings high of RM325m achieved in 2008.

Risks
 1) Execution risk; 2) political and regulatory risk (both local and abroad); 3) rising raw material prices; 4) downturn in property cycle; and 5) Continued devaluation of the VND.

Forecasts
 Unchanged as margins are expected to be lower due to rising raw material prices and commencement of new property projects which normally has lower initial margins.

Rating
 Maintain HOLD call as fundamentals have already been reflected in share price.

Valuation
 Maintain TP of RM3.63 based on SOP valuation.


Source/转贴/Extract/: HLIB Research
Publish date:25/03/11

Gamuda 2Q11 below expectations (KENANGA )

Gamuda
12M- Target Price: RM4.12
HOLD RM3.79
2Q11 below expectations

Gamuda reported 2Q11 core net profit of RM167m which came in below our expectations and consensus at 40% and 45%, respectively. Its water business recorded an exceptional gain from adoption of IC12. Nonetheless, core net profit was higher by 27%, YoY, attributable to higher construction margin and property sales particularly from Bandar Botani, Horizon Hills and Jade Homes. Madge Mansion property project will be launched in April 2011 and is expected to contribute c. RM40m to its topline starting from FY12. The MRT project will kick start in 3QCY11 with tunnelling package physical works will commence in 1QCY12. We trimmed down our earnings forecast for FY11 by 2% as we adjust lower property margin from 24% to 22%. HOLD maintained with unchanged Target Price of RM4.12 based on 18x PER FY12. We expect positive news flow over 2Q11 i.e. MRT contract awards where Gamuda-MMV JV is likely to win tunneling contracts.

 Expecting stronger 2H11. The 1H11 revenue rose marginally by 1%, mainly backed by its property division which grew 26%, YoY. However, the construction division was 5% lower, YoY, due to lower billings while most of the projects are towards tail end. In contrast, the bottom-line stepped-up by 27%, YoY, while the construction margin doubled to 6%. There was an exceptional gain of RM16m, arising from its concession businesses adoption of IC 12 accounting practice. Management expects stronger 2H11 which will be driven by higher construction revenue recognition and increased property income.

 2Q11 earnings higher on property. QoQ, 2Q11 core net profit rose 8% supported by 25% growth in property earnings on the back of healthy sales, while construction saw enhanced margins from construction division from 6% to 7%. As at 1H11, Gamuda successfully recorded RM600m sales in property while unbilled sales stood at RM840m.

 MRT non-tunnelling works is expected to commence construction in 3QCY11 followed by tunnelling works in 1QCY12. The physical works for MRT tunneling package is expected to kick-start in 1QCY12 with contract awards in late 2011. Gamuda-MMC JV has been given the green light from the government to bid for the project. Its PDP role for non-tunnelling package is not expected to be lucrative as the JV will only earn small portion of the project value.

 HOLD maintain with unchanged TP at RM4.12. We have downgraded our FY11 earnings by 2% to RM402m as we lower down our property margin assumptions from 24% to 22%.

We roll over our valuation to FY12 while pegging at 18x PE to arrive at our Target Price of RM4.12. Reiterate HOLD.


Source/转贴/Extract/: KENANGA INVESTMENT
Publish date:25/03/11

Managing the fallout

Early assessments of economic damage and corporate exposure to Japan’s earthquake, tsunami and potential nuclear crisis are being overtaken by unfolding events.

Investors ought to stay alert and remain cautious
Douglas Foo, owner of the Sakae Sushi restaurant chain, did what any business manager would have done when news of the 9.0-magnitudeearthquake in Japan’s northeast region first broke on March 11. He immediately worked out the extent to which his chain of sushi restaurants was exposed to the fallout, figured out how to get round the problems, and then estimated what it would all cost. “We get 70% to 80% of our supplies, primarily seafood, from all over Japan, based on long-term agreements. So far, fortunately, none of our suppliers has reported any major disruption,” Foo tells The EdgeSingapore. “We are, however, making sure we know where to find alternative sources of supply, if the situation warrants a change.” But he is hoping that he won’t be forced to turn to these alternative sources of seafood, mainly from Australia and China. “If you have to get into very short-term supply agreements, the pricing will definitely be higher.”

Across the market, companies with any exposure to Japan were scrambling to make similar risk assessments and what they could do about it. Besides ensuring that any staffers they had on the ground were safe, a key priority was to get as much ac-curate information as possible out to investors. Among those with the most significant direct exposure to Japan were property players such as Global Logistic Properties, Saizen REIT and Mapletree LogisticsTrust. Then, there were other companies that relied on Japan for supplies of raw materials and intermediate goods, including Foo’s Sakae Sushi and semiconductor-related equipment maker Rokko Holdings.

The immediate prognosis wasn’t too bad. It appeared that few really big companies had significant direct exposure to the afflicted part of Japan. Among the largest companies that faced any direct risk is industrial property developer Global Logistic Properties , which has a market capitalisation of $8.3 billion.

The company has 69 properties in Japan, and estimates that it will be hit withUS$38.8 million ($43.64 million) worth of damages, lower than the US$47.5million it initially expected. The revised forecast is less than 0.6% of the value of its Japanese portfolio. Global Logistic Properties also anticipates a separate loss of US$10.8million in rental income. In fact, the market appeared to be looking forward to the clean-up activity and reconstruction work that generally follow earthquakes and other natural disasters.

Shares in Japanese construction companies were surging strongly, and the hunt was on for suppliers of building materials that could be beneficiaries of a boom in demand. In short, it seemed like just another earthquake that Japan and the rest of the world would quickly shrug off. By March 15, however, thing shad taken a decidedly worrying turn. Besides triggering a massive tsunami that wiped out entire towns and claimed the lives of thousands and left thousands more missing, the earthquake also damaged a nuclear power plant in the Fukushima prefecture, one of the worst-hit are-as. Explosions were reported at the plant, and it had become clear that efforts to cool the overheating reactors were not working, raising the possibility of a nuclear meltdown and widespread radiation contamination. Immediately, comparisons with the 1986 Chernobyl meltdown, considered the worst nuclear power plant accident in history, were made.

That event in Ukraine produced a radioactive cloud that spread for hundreds of miles and claimed the lives of thousands through cancer and other diseases. Meanwhile, the apparently slow rate at which information was being disseminated began to sap confidence in Japan’s ability to contain the fallout and limit damage to the world’s third-largest economy. Indeed, Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan was reportedly infuriated with executives of Tokyo Electric Power Co, operator of the affected nuclear plant, for informing him about an explosion at the facility more than an hour after the blast took place. The company’s efforts to cool heated fuel rods at the damaged nuclear reactors have so far been intermittent, given fluctuations in radiation levels.

Amid waves of panic-selling at the Japanese market, the Nikkei-225Index slumped more than 16% over March 14 and 15, its worst two-day rout since 1987. All the initial optimism of a quick recovery from the earthquake and tsunami damage seemed to have evaporated in the face of this nuclear threat. Back in Singapore, the initial assessment of damage to companies with exposure seemed rather hollow.

Would properties owned by Global Logistic Properties that weren’t damaged by the earthquake and tsunami now be useless anyway, owing to the spreading nuclear radiation? Even if Sakae Sushi’s Foo were able to continue getting his supplies of seafood from Japan, would people risk eating any of it? A number of Asian governments are already taking precautions by testing imported Japanese produce. Countries such as Singapore, the US, Australia and France have also advised their citizens not to travel to Japan.

Song Seng Wun, economist at CIMB, isn’t sure that will be enough to reassure consumers, though. “The Ministry of Health in Singapore may say it’s okay to eat stuff from Japan, but until [health minister] Khaw Boon Wan comes out to chomp on sashimi, it may not be enough for officials to just say it’s safe to eat. It’s human psychology.” Song thinks the fallout from this latest earthquake in Japan could well be very different from previous disasters in the country. “With the [1995] Kobe quake, it took the Japanese a year to restore industrial output back to levels they fell from. This time, it’s different. When you have the risk of nuclear radiation, you may get a different impact altogether,” he says.

Power outages, meltdown risks
With the story of a potential nuclear disaster still unfolding, not to mention the possibility of more after-shocks and tsunamis, analysts and investors may well find themselves updating their assessments on the impact of the Japanese disaster by the hour in the weeks ahead. To be sure, the repercussions for the Japanese economy are potentially severe. Amid power outages, major companies such as Sony,Toyota and Honda have stopped production temporarily, while a number of sea-ports have ceased operations.

Withnorthern Japan home to car and semi-conductor factories, economists expect exports to slump in 2Q2011, at the very least. According to Barclays, the fallout of the quake and tsunami could exceed ¥15 trillion ($235 billion), or3% of GDP, well above the estimated$127 billion worth of damage caused by the 7.2-magnitude Kobe temblor. Goldman Sachs notes that while foreign investors tend to think of Japan as being resistant to earthquake damage, there’s no certainty that the current events will follow the Kobequake’s course to recovery — a key difference between the two disastersis that the March 11 temblor has triggered power outages in the greater Tokyo area and other regions of Japan. It expects real GDP to contract2% q-o-q in 2Q2011 and continue declining for the rest of the year if the blackouts last till December.

In the event of a full-scale nuclear meltdown, economies in the whole region are set to suffer. CIMB Research’s Asia strategist Chang Chiou Yu says if the radiation spreads to China and South Korea, which are major trading partners of Southeast Asian nations, consumers in these two countries may cut back on spending and travel abroad. “This would not only dampen the travel and hospitality sectors but also reduce demand for goods and services in Asia. The hardest hit would be Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand.” And, with Southeast Asia being a major buyer of intermediate goods, mainly machinery and transport equipment, from Japan, Chang adds that the potential fall-out could shave up to two percent-age points off his baseline forecast for Asia’s 2011 economic growth.

Implications for companies, industries
Singapore is unlikely to escape any widespread hit to regional economies. Japan accounted for 6.2% of the city-state’s total trade last year, and the country has broad indirect exposure to Japan through its trade links with the rest of the region.

In the corporate sector, the international profile of many companies listed here will almost certainly leave them vulnerable to the aftermath of Japan’s earthquake.

Singapore Airlines, for in-stance, may face a hit to earnings in the near term following the string of travel advisories. It has delayed the launch of Airbus A380 services between Singapore and Los Angeles via Tokyo’s Narita Airport, citing reduced demand to and from the Japanese capital. TheA380 flights were initially planned for take-off this month. UOB Kay Hian estimates that Singapore Airlines derives$550 million in passenger and cargo revenue from Japan. “Of greater concern is disruption in cargo traffic, particularly electronic goods, which are generally air-flown. Impact to the bottom line could be 33% of that, or $181million, if disruptions persist for the whole year.” Tourist arrivals to Singapore from Japan may also decline, although the impact may not be substantial, considering the Japanese accounted for an average of 5% of total arrivals to Singapore over the last three years. But, if a radiation crisis erupts, the consequences could be dire, not only for the hospitality sector, says CIMB’s Song. “It could be kind of like SARS[severe acute respiratory syndrome]. If you looked at what SARS did, we had blind fear and panic. The [Singapore]economy basically tanked. We could see a repeat of that, mainly from the fear factor.” Companies in the construction and shipbuilding industries, mean-while, may face higher costs as steel prices in Asia get pushed up by sup-ply disruptions in Japan, the world’s second-largest steel producer. The country’s reconstruction needs in the wake of the devastation could also mean less steel for exports, pushing up prices further. Any drop in steel production by Japan could also mean lower demand in the near term for iron ore and coking coal, key ingredients for making steel.

Noble Group, a major supplier of coking coal to Nippon Steel, may be at risk, although this could be mitigated in the longer term when steel demand in Japan firms up on the back of rebuilding activities. Demand for aluminium may also slow down, with Japanese carmakers temporarily stopping production.

Xinren Aluminum, which counts Japan as one of its export markets, may be affected, although sales out-side China account for just a small portion of its overall revenue. Concerns over Japan’s nuclear plants have raised expectations that the country may consider switching to alternative energy sources such as thermal coal, in turn benefiting sup-pliers such as Straits Asia Resources. Such hopes may be misplaced, however, according to UBS. “Japan’s thermal coal imports are already high, inventories are reportedly adequate, and we believe coal-fired capacity is operating close to full utilisation,” it says. UBS adds that nuclear energy remains the most ideal source of power for Japan’s key industrial sector. “The government may simply lift the level of research and in-vestment to better manage the risk of earthquake damage to these power facilities.” With Japan being a major source of electronic and machinery components, supply disruptions could hit companies in the manufacturing sector, potentially resulting in higher material costs and lower output for producers. “In our talks with companies, we gather that Venture has already started to respond, since the day after the quake itself, to increase stocks of vital components such as semiconductor wafers, connectors and oscillators, as well as to increase the number of suppliers,” says KimEng Securities. Will these appraisals prove to be inadequate in the wake of more aftershocks and further developments at Japan’s wrecked nuclear power plants? Or, will the panic eventually subside, as it has after previous crises?

While it makes plenty of sense to be aware of the risks and stay alert at times like these, some observers caution against getting carried away and overreacting. “The current news of foreigners leaving Tokyo and offices closing, owing to the fear of radiation emanating from the reactors, is not substantiated by a great deal of facts,” says Nomura’s Asia strategist Sean Darby. Some of the worst-case scenarios of economic damage could also well turn out to be to opessimistic. At Sakae Sushi, Foo says he isn’t yet facing difficulty getting his sup-plies of seafood, and his restaurants are still as busy as ever. “At present, we are not seeing a decrease in the number of customers coming to our restaurants. The AVA [Agri-Food and Veterinary Authority] actually stepped in quite quickly in response to the radiation scare. They have a good track record of being reliable for Singapore consumers.”


Source/转贴/Extract/: Theedgeweekly(SG)21.03.11
Publish date: 21/03/11

S-REITs – Leveraging trend continues in 2011 (OCBC)

In our year-end S-REITs strategy report (2010), we highlighted that the trend of leveraging up among S-REITs is likely to continue into 2011, buoyed by the still-low interest rate environment. So far, this has proven to be true, with many S-REITs taking on more debt to fund new acquisitions (K-REIT, AAREIT, CACHE, CDLHT etc.) According to our estimates, the top three highest geared S-REITs to-date are Suntec (40.4%), K-REIT (39.3%) and FCOT (38%). Departing from the previous conservatism seen during the financial crisis, it seems that more S-REITs are now comfortable reverting back to the pre-crisis target gearing levels of 40-45%. We think the next likely candidates to gear up and possibly test the 40% watermark will be MIT and FCT. Many economists are expecting the Fed to start normalising rates only towards the latter part of 2012 – which, if correct, would imply the Sibor will stay at current low levels through 2011. We thus anticipate the leveraging trend among S-REITs to persist for the remaining three quarters of 2011 and possibly spill over into the early part of 2012.

Leveraging trend. In our year-end S-REITs strategy report in 2010, we highlighted that the trend of leveraging up among S-REITs is likely to continue into 2011, buoyed by the still-low interest rates environment. So far, this has proven to be true, with many S-REITs taking on more debt to fund new acquisitions. Recently, we have seen K-REIT entering into a S$125.1m sale and purchase agreement for Prudential Tower, which will increase its aggregate leverage from 37% to 39.3%. AAREIT has also leveraged up from 32.7% to 33.6% following its S$72m NorthTech acquisition. CACHE is also expected to bump up its gearing from 23.7% to 27.6% on the back of its maiden acquisition of two local logistics properties. CDLHT is also leveraging up from 20.4% to 26.5% with the purchase of Studio M Hotel for S$154m. We noted that most of these transactions to-date (except CDLHT) have been third-party acquisitions - we have yet to witness more sponsor-backed assets being injected into the REIT.

40% watermark increasingly tested. According to our estimates, the top three highest-geared S-REITs are Suntec (40.4%), K-REIT (39.3%) and FCOT (38%). Departing from the previous conservatism seen during the financial crisis, it seems that more S-REITs are now comfortable reverting back to the pre-crisis target gearing levels of 40-45%. We think the next likely candidates to gear up and possibly test the 40% watermark will be MIT, which has yet to make its maiden acquisition to-date; and FCT which is be looking at acquiring Bedok Point from its sponsor.

Sponsor Injections. Going into the remaining three quarters of 2011, we are awaiting more sponsor injections into the REITs, which will likely bring up gearing levels. Apart from Bedok Point, other FY11/FY12 targets on our radar screen include: ION Orchard (CMT), Ocean Financial Centre (K-REIT), Pandan Logistics Hub & CWT Logistics Hub 3 (CACHE), Pandai Hospitals in Malaysia (PLife REIT), 30 Tuas Ave 10 (Sabana), Changi City Point & Centrepoint (FCT), CMA’s China malls (CRCT) and Lippo-Karawaci’s Indonesian malls (LMIRT).

Interest rate hike likely in 2012. The MAS manages the Sing dollar's strength by buying or selling currencies to keep its exchange rate against major currencies within a policy band. This FX-centred monetary policy regime means that Singapore has effectively imported US's interest rate policy, despite obvious domestic inflationary pressures. Many economists are expecting the Fed to start normalising rates towards the latter part of 2012 – which, if correct, would imply the Sibor will stay at current low levels through 2011. We thus anticipate the leveraging trend among S-REITs to persist for the remaining of 2011 and possibly the early part of 2012.




Source/转贴/Extract/: OCBC Investment Research
Publish date:25/03/11

Gamuda Construction makes a comeback (CIMB)

Gamuda Bhd
OUTPERFORM Maintained
RM3.79 Target: RM5.60
Construction makes a comeback

• Above expectations; maintain OUTPERFORM. Although Gamuda’s annualized 1HFY7/11 core net profit made up 99% of our forecast and 98% of consensus, we consider the performance to be above expectations as we expect 2H11 to be stronger due to the gradual rise of construction margins as key projects enter their mature phase. The reason for the deviation was our underestimation of EBIT margin. We now up our FY11-13 EPS forecasts by 8-10%, which raises our RNAVbased target price from RM5.45 to RM5.60. These strong results could catalyse the stock, along with project awards and newsflow on the MRT project for which Gamuda is the PDP and potentially the contractor for the tunnelling works. The RM6bn-7bn tunnelling portion for the SBK line is expected to be awarded in early 2012. We reiterate our OUTPERFORM call.

• Construction making a comeback. 1H11 revenue inched up 1.2% yoy due to depleting jobs and timing differences in property contributions. However, EBIT margin expanded 3.4% pts yoy to 11.4%, higher than our forecast of 7.5%, thanks to higher margins for the construction division which contributed 23% of EBIT. Construction pretax margins stood at 7%, an improvement on 1Q11’s 5.5%.

Management indicated that the construction margin should rise 1% pt qoq for every quarter in 2H. This will be driven by the double-tracking project and infrastructure works at Yenso Park which has entered its mature phase, i.e. gone beyond the 50% mark. Overall core net profit rose 20%. No dividends were declared, which was no surprise.

• 8-10% EPS upgrades. We are raising our FY11-12 EPS forecasts by 8-10%, mainly for an increase in our construction pretax margin assumption from 5% to 9%. This is largely due to stronger margins assumed for the double tracking project which, despite delays which have been factored in, should see a step-up in pretax margin from 6-7% currently to around 12% towards the tail end of the job. We up our FY11-13 DPS forecasts by around 2%.

• SBK line tunnelling portion to make strong progress from 4QCY11. Prequalification and tenders for the tunnelling portion of the SBK line is targeted to make good progress starting in 4QCY11, with awards in early 2012.

Source/转贴/Extract/: CIMB Research
Publish date:25/03/11

Gamuda 2QFY11 : On the right track (Ecm)

Gamuda
(RM3.79 GAM MK) Hold
Target Price: RM3.99
2QFY11 : On the right track

· In line with expectation
Gamuda’s 2QFY11 net profit came in at RM94.0m resulting in 6MFY11 of RM182.6m, making up 47.6% of both consensus and in-house earnings estimates respectively. We deem the results to be within expectations as we anticipate a stronger performance in 2HFY11.

· Net profit soared +42.2% y-o-y
6MFY11 revenue increased marginally by 1.2% y-o-y, but net profit rose substantially by 19.6% y-o-y, underpinned by improved margins in the construction and property segments. In the construction segment alone, the pretax margin almost doubled to 6.2% in 6MFY11 from 3.5% in 6MFY10. The Electrified Double Tracking Project and Yenso Park infrastructure works are progressing rapidly, having reached 58% and 72% completion. Outstanding construction order book stands at RM5.0bn. Excluding profits from associates, the property division contributed the most to Gamuda’s pretax profit in 6MFY11 as its pretax margin edged up to 17.3% from 15.7% in the corresponding period of the last financial year. The property segment reported encouraging sales of RM600m in 6MFY11 with unbilled sales at RM840m. Bandar Botanic, Horizon Hills and Jade Hills continued to perform well.

· First MRT line tunnelling contracts up for tender in Q4
We understand from management that the contract details are being finalised for the “project development partner” (PDP) role that was awarded to the Gamuda-MMC JV at end-2010. Works on the first MRT radial line running from Sungai Buloh to Kajang is scheduled to start in July 2011 while the cost and network scheme of the entire MRT project is due to be announced in May 2011. As PDP, Gamuda-MMC will be pitted against other contractors in the so-called Swiss Challenge to bid for the Sungai Buloh-Kajang MRT line tunnelling job when it is opened for tender sometime in Q4 of 2011. The contract is targeted to be awarded in Q1 of 2012.

· Maintain HOLD, TP: RM3.99
Our earnings estimates are left unchanged with target price at RM3.99, pegging FY11 EPS to 19.5x PE (10yr historical average). Re-rating catalysts: 1) continued margin expansion from construction and property divisions over the next few quarters, 2) timely replenishment of construction orderbook 3) higher actual cost of MRT tunnelling contracts than expected. Our HOLD call is maintained.

In line with expectation
6MFY11 net profit came in strongly at RM182.6m, making up 47.6% of both consensus and in-house earnings estimates respectively. This net profit includes a boost of about RM16m due to the adoption of IC Interpretation 12, which affects the accounting treatment for service concession agreements. Instead of the conventional recognition of revenue and profits, the amount recoverable over the tenure of the concession is now recognised as a financial asset or intangible asset and amortized over the remaining concession years. We note that net profit excluding this amount constitutes 43.4% of house estimates. We deem the results to be within our expectation as we anticipate a stronger performance in 2HFY11.

No dividend was declared for the 2QFY11.
For the first half of FY11, revenue increased marginally y-o-y, but net profits surged significantly by 19.6%. This dramatic increase in earnings was underpinned by improving margins in the construction and property segments. In the construction segment, the pretax margin almost doubled to 6.2% in 6MFY11 from 3.5% in 6MFY10. Good progress has been made so far with the ongoing Yenso Park infrastructure works, with approximately 28% of Yenso residential land parcels handovers completed to date since commencement in March 2011. Also, a second extension of time (EOT) has been granted for completion of the Electrified Double Tracking Project (EDTP) in 2014. We opine that this would put the group in a position to mitigate LAD risks and claim compensation in the event of unforeseen delays to completion of the EDTP. Currently, Yenso Park and EDTP are 58% and 72% completed.

Management is confident that pretax margins will inch up over the coming 2 quarters and the group’s full year net profit will exceed the all-time high of RM325m in FY08. The property segment reported encouraging sales of RM600m in 6MFY11 with unbilled sales at RM840m, with Bandar Botanic, Horizon Hills and Jade Hills continuing to outperform the rest of its property portfolio. Excluding profits from associates, the property division contributed the most to Gamuda’s pretax profit in 6MFY11 with margins rising from to 17.3% from 15.7% in 6MFY11. Recently, Gamuda kicked off the pre-launch marketing of its flagship project Celadon City in Ho Chi Minh City. According to management, the response from potential homebuyers so far has been positive and this augurs well for Celadon City’s launch in April 2011. Gamuda City in Hanoi is set for launch in July 2011. Management has set its Vietnam property sales targets at RM300m and RM1.5b for FY11 and FY12 respectively. On the local front, Madge Mansions is due to launch in April 2011.

Updates on MRT project
We understand from the management that the contract details are being finalised for the “project development partner” (PDP) role that was awarded to the Gamuda-MMC JV in December 2010. Works on the elevated portion of the first MRT radial line running from Sungai Buloh to Kajang is scheduled to start in July 2011 while the cost and network scheme of the entire MRT project is due to be announced in May 2011. To recap from the previous company update, the JV has to meet to KPI attached to the role of PDP: - 1)completion and delivery of the MRT project on time 2)keep costs within the budget stipulated. As a PDP, the JV is given the authority to tender and award the MRT contracts on behalf of the Government. On top of that, the PDP will be held responsible for any project delays or cost overruns, excluding those due to volatility in building material prices as the Government will bear these costs.

As PDP, Gamuda-MMC will be pitted against other contractors in the so-called Swiss Challenge to bid for the Sungai Buloh-Kajang MRT line tunnelling job when it is opened for tender sometime in Q4 of 2011. However, we opine since Gamuda-MMC is the only Malaysian company with the track record and expertise to undertake such a project, so it is highly likely that the JV will bag the tunnelling portion. The JV is sticking to its initial estimate of RM14b and management has made clear that it prefers the tunnelling contracts to be awarded in one lump sum as opposed to line-by-line.

Maintain HOLD, TP: RM3.99

We leave our current earnings estimates unchanged, maintaining target price at RM3.99, pegging FY11 EPS to 10 year historical average PE of 19.5x. Risks to our view: 1) further Dong devaluation 2) rising building material prices largely due to volatile crude oil price movements.

Re-rating catalysts: 1) continued margin expansion from construction and property divisions over the next few quarters, 2) timely replenishment of construction orderbook 3) higher actual cost of MRT tunnelling contracts than expected. Our HOLD call is maintained.


Source/转贴/Extract/: ECM Libra Capital
Publish date:25/03/11

日本大浩劫





Japan Nuclear Melt Down Crisis-Latest Global impact analysis! -Good Morning Singapore ,Alan Lok, Sabio Global 卢俊东 贤明环球



Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:25/03/11
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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