Saturday, March 19, 2011

2011-0317-57金錢爆(福島出包 維基早知道)















Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:18/03/11

2011-03-19 - 大作戰反應堆最終棺封核災處刀口 正式升五級

蘋果日報



【蘋果日報報訊】日本拯救核災難的最後大作戰時刻。自衞隊昨日(周五)連續第二日敢死出動,向福島第一核電廠最高危的 3號反應堆拼命灑水,輻射水平雖然下降,但不夠多,延誤了重鋪電纜工作,令冷卻系統未能接駁電源恢復運作; 2、 3和 4號反應堆則先後冒煙,反映溫度仍很高。日本官方昨日更首次將核災由第四級升至第五級,反映核災嚴重,首相菅直人形容核災難「仍處於刀口上」,東京電力公司首度承認,拯救­核災唯一方法或跟切爾諾貝爾核電廠一樣,最終要用沙和混凝土掩埋反應堆打造「石棺材」。

昨日是 311災後第七日,菅直人召開記者會概括災情。他說地震和海嘯的救災活動遇到許多困難,而核災「仍處於刀口上」,但東電的員工、自衞隊、警察和消防等部門正抱着必死的信念­,用自己的生命押注,作出最大努力,相信一定能夠戰勝最後困難。他勉勵國人攜手再次接受挑戰,像二戰後一樣重建家園,再創造一個新國家。

菅直人說:「日本被形容為一個細小的島國,但我們能夠在戰後奇迹地重建這個國家。在人民的力量下,我們會成功重建。」他呼籲各縣接收避難民眾,團結一致。

若釋出鈈禍延多代

核災情「仍處於刀口」,日本官方更首次將核災情升級,由原本代表核意外事故的第四級,升至代表有放射性物質外洩的第五級。但法國核能安全局早將日本今次核災情升至第六級,­僅次於 1986年蘇聯切爾諾貝爾核電廠爆炸造成核災難的級數。而日本核災情至昨日仍未受到控制。

上周五的 311大地震和大海嘯,令福島第一核電廠後備電力系統損毀,冷卻系統無法運作,令六個反應堆溫度飆升,其中 1至 4號反應堆先後發生氫氣爆炸,洩漏輻射, 1號和 3號反應堆爐心更部份熔毀,但至昨天 3號反應堆情況最危急。

3 號反應堆是唯一用含有鈈製「 mox燃料」的反應堆,其他反應堆的燃料棒是用鈾製造,而且廢置核燃棒儲存池池水嚴重蒸發,令輻射可能直接釋放入大氣層,令核災難形勢更險峻。鈈毒性非常高,放射性是鈾的 30,000倍,僅 20微克即能致命,一旦進入人體就會長期積聚在骨髓致癌。鈈的壽命也極長,若福島核電廠釋出鈈, 50萬年後它仍然存在,足以禍延多代。而且,鈈比鈾難降溫,產生的氣體更多,增加爆炸風險。

危難性高,自衞隊前日動用直升機和消防車,最少把 64噸水注入 3號反應堆的核廢料池,至昨日自衞隊放棄用直升機灑水,改為調動消防車,用高壓泵不斷向核廢料池灑水 50噸。東電稱消防車灑水有效,因為「到有蒸氣冒出」,專家則指灑水後反應堆冒白煙,反映水已進入反應堆,但也反映儲存池池水溫度很高。

除了 3號反應堆情況告急, 2號和 4號反應堆昨日也相繼冒煙,顯示廢置核燃料棒儲存池正在沸騰。當局發放直升機近距離拍攝的片段顯示, 4號反應堆外牆有一個大洞,廢燃料池原應有 45呎深的水,但已乾涸,可能會釋放高輻射物質。日本《讀賣新聞》稱, 4號反應堆西面 50米的地方,有一個專門放置廢燃料棒的核廢料儲存池,裏面有 6,375支用過的燃料棒,是六個反應堆內燃料棒總數的 1.4倍,這批廢燃料棒目前狀況不明,若溫度上升,有洩漏輻射危機。

鋪設電纜工程延誤

自衞隊昨日又向爐心局部熔化的 1號反應堆注水,但注水或灑水只是應急方法,要解除危機,必須恢復冷卻系統運作。工作人員前日已開始鋪設電纜,但由於廠區輻射量仍過高,延誤鋪設工程。但即使電纜成功接駁­,各反應堆冷卻系統未知是否受損。

東電昨日不排除要和切爾諾貝爾核災一樣,用沙和混凝土掩埋反應堆。公司一名高層說:「用混凝土掩埋反應堆並非不可能,但首要工作是試圖令它降溫。」切爾諾貝爾核爆當年,蘇­聯政府必徵用 60萬「義勇軍」入災場,將核反應堆密封成「石棺材」,近 4,000人之後因感染輻射致癌或白血病死亡,倖存者則深受後遺症折磨。

美國核能監察委員會成員賈茨科( Gregory Jaczko)指出,燃料棒的熱力「可能要數周時間」才完成冷卻。國際原子能機構總幹事天野之彌則形容,福島核電事故「是極嚴重的意外,全球應合作」解決。

Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:19/03/11

Japan sees some stabilisation in nuclear crisis

By Kiyoshi Takenaka and Elaine Lies | Reuters

TOKYO (Reuters) - One of six tsunami-crippled nuclear reactors appeared to stabilise on Saturday as Japan raced to restore power to the stricken power plant to cool it and prevent a greater catastrophe.

Engineers reported some rare success after fire trucks sprayed water for about three hours on reactor No.3, widely considered the most dangerous at the ravaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear complex because of its use of highly toxic plutonium.

"The situation there is stabilising somewhat," Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano told a news conference.

Engineers earlier attached a power cable to the outside of the mangled plant in a desperate attempt to get water pumps going that would cool overheating fuel rods and prevent a deadly radiation leak.

They hope electricity will flow by Sunday to four reactors in the complex about 240 km (150 miles) north of Tokyo.

Edano said radiation levels in milk from a Fukushima farm about 30 km (18 miles) from the plant, and spinach grown in Ibaraki, a neighbouring prefecture, exceeded limits set by the government, the first known case of contamination since the

March 11 earthquake and tsunami that touched off the crisis.

But he said these higher radiation levels still posed no risk to human health.

Prime Minister Naoto Kan, facing Japan's biggest disaster since World War Two, sounded out the opposition about forming a government of national unity to deal with a crisis that has left nearly 7,000 people confirmed killed and turned whole towns into waterlogged, debris-strewn wastelands.

Another 10,700 people are missing, many feared dead in the disaster, which has sent a shock through global financial markets, with major economies joining forces to calm the Japanese yen.

Officials connected a power cable to the No. 2 reactor and planned to test power in reactors No. 1, 2, 3 and 4 on Sunday.

Working inside a 20-km (12-mile) evacuation zone at Fukushima, nearly 300 engineers got a second diesel generator attached to reactor No. 6 working, the nuclear safety agency said. They used the power to restart cooling pumps on No. 5.

"TEPCO has connected the external transmission line with the receiving point of the plant and confirmed that electricity can be supplied," the plant's operator, Tokyo Electric Power Co, said in a statement.

Nearly 1.5 km (a mile) of cable is being laid before engineers try to crank up the coolers at reactor No.2, followed by numbers 1, 3 and 4 this weekend, company officials said.

"If they are successful in getting the cooling infrastructure up and running, that will be a significant step forward in establishing stability," said Eric Moore, a nuclear

power expert at U.S.-based FocalPoint Consulting Group.

If that fails, one option is to bury the sprawling 40-year-old plant in sand and concrete to prevent a catastrophic radiation release. The method was used at the Chernobyl reactor in 1986, scene of the world's worst nuclear reactor disaster.

Underlining authorities' desperation, fire trucks sprayed water overnight in a crude tactic to cool reactor No.3, considered the most critical because of its use of mixed oxides, or mox, containing both uranium and highly toxic plutonium.

Japan has raised the severity rating of the nuclear crisis to level 5 from 4 on the seven-level INES international scale, putting it on a par with the Three Mile Island accident in Pennsylvania in 1979. Some experts say it is more serious.

Chernobyl, in Ukraine, was a 7 on that scale.

HUMANITARIAN EFFORT

The operation to avert large-scale radiation has overshadowed the humanitarian crisis caused by the 9.0-magnitude quake and 10-metre (33-foot) tsunami.

Some 390,000 people, many elderly, are homeless, living in shelters in near-freezing temperatures in northeastern coastal areas.

Food, water, medicine and heating fuel are in short supply and a Worm Moon, when the full moon is closest to Earth, could bring floods to devastated areas.

"Everything is gone, including money," said Tsukasa Sato, a 74-year-old barber with a heart condition, as he warmed his hands in front of a stove at a shelter for the homeless.

Health officials and the U.N. atomic watchdog have said radiation levels in the capital Tokyo were not harmful. But the city has seen an exodus of tourists, expatriates and many Japanese, who fear a blast of radioactive material.

"I'm leaving because my parents are terrified. I personally think this will turn out to be the biggest paper tiger the world has ever seen," said Luke Ridley, 23, from London as he sat at Narita international airport using his laptop.

Officials asked people in the 20 km "take cover" zone to follow some directives when going outside: Drive, don't walk. Wear a mask. Wear long sleeves. Don't go out in the rain.

Though there has been alarm around the world, experts say dangerous levels of radiation are unlikely to spread to other nations.

The U.S. government said "minuscule" amounts of radiation were detected in California consistent with a release from Japan's damaged facility, but there were no levels of concern.

Amid their distress, Japanese took time to laud the 279 nuclear plant workers toiling in the nuclear plant's wreckage, wearing masks, goggles and protective suits sealed by duct tape.

"My eyes well with tears at the thought of the work they are doing," Kazuya Aoki, a safety official at Japan's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency, told Reuters.

G7 INTERVENTION FOR YEN

The Group of Seven rich nations succeeded in calming global financial markets in a rare concerted intervention to restrain a soaring yen -- the first such joint intervention since the group came to the aid of the newly launched euro in 2000.

Japan's Nikkei share index recovered some lost ground by the end of a week which wiped $350 billion off market capitalisation.

The government plans to provide up to 10 trillion yen ($127 billion) in cheap loans to help businesses get back on their feet. The plight of the homeless worsened following a cold snap that brought heavy snow to the worst-affected areas, the Nikkei

daily reported.

But the immediate problems remained huge for many people. Nearly 290,000 households in the north still have no electricity and about 940,000 lack running water.

Aid groups say most victims are getting help, but there are pockets of acute suffering.

"We've seen children suffering with the cold, and lacking really basic items like food and clean water," Stephen McDonald of Save the Children said in a statement.


Source/转贴/Extract/: yahoo.com.sg
Publish date:19/03/11

捷運效應

財經評論
2011-03-19 15:06
當大家都在談論巴生河流域將展開捷運系統興建工程,預計將對產業領域的發展帶來正面效應時,有人提出這樣的問題:“屆時那些沒設有捷運系統站的地點,或者未能與捷運系統站銜接的地區,是否意味將失去優勢?”

答案:未必。從捷運系統將經過的地區與路線圖,可以看出,吉隆坡/巴生河流域,仍有不少人口密集的住宅社區沒有概括在內,這並不意味有關地區的產業增值潛能將比較遜色。

產業增值與否,品牌與概念仍扮演主要角色,而且研究顯示,道路的銜接如果完善,比鐵路系統更有吸引力,這在依賴汽車為主要交通工具的大馬尤其是。

捷運系統分為圓線、橙線及藍線,其中圓線是最有價值的捷運線,銜接各主要鐵路系統、巴士路線,以及另外兩個輕快鐵線。

當捷運系統建立起來後,最重要還需有銜接巴士的服務,否則,也可能會讓市民有一種看到、去不到的感覺。

其實,捷運工程的興建,不只是帶動產業、建築業領域,與這兩個領域有關的建築材料供應商,例如鋼鐵與洋灰廠商也將受惠,在6年的興建期間,相信會有不少產業計劃陸續推出,掌握這個大好時機。

不管怎樣,我們在做出購買、投資產業之前,還是應該實地考察,千萬不能因為有關產業發展計劃坐落在地鐵站附近,將之劃為非增值不可的產業,這樣的看法可能不夠全面,也有可能讓自己陷入進退兩難的局面。

星洲日報/財經小品‧作者:鄭碧娥‧2011.03.19

Source/转贴/Extract/: 星洲日報
Publish date:19/03/11

和记港口信托上市 开始交易便“下水”

(2011-03-19)
和记港口信托(HPHT)昨日在艰难的市场情况下,正如预期的出师不利,午盘一开始交易便“下水”,股价一度挫跌接近7%至0.94美元。

  和记港口信托的发售价是1.01美元,昨日它闭市报0.95美元,比发售价低5.9%,半天成交量高达6亿1678万股,稳居活跃股榜首。它以0.975美元开始交易,首日(仅半天交易)在0.98美元至0.94美元范围波动。

  其股价昨日的首日表现万众瞩目,因为这是今年以来全球最大的首次公开发股上市、世界首个挂牌上市的集装箱码头商业信托,而且是在日本发生9级大地震和海啸之前确定发售价。它也是日本“连环三灾”,即地震、海啸和和福岛核电厂辐射泄漏危机,导致股市激烈震荡后,本地的第一个首日上市。

  由于和记港口信托的5.8%股息收益率并不是很高(市场上一些商业和房地产信托的股息收益率达7%),而且它以美元报价,加上日本发生“连环三灾”带来的冲击,市场原本已预期该股的表现将“疲软”,但昨日一度出现的约7%跌幅,对这类霸级股票来说还是相当激烈。

  联昌国际(CIMB)之前已提醒其客户,认为和记港口信托可能受“三灾”打击,因为日本是机器设备的一个主要来源。

  它说:“日本在多个领域是主要的关键组件出口国,包括出口电子设备、光学媒体,以及机器给本区域国家的制造业。近期供应链受到干扰中断,可能对贸易量有负面的影响。这可能影响(和记港口信托)近期的盈利。”

  和记港口信托发售的股票获得2.9倍的认购率,共38亿股是卖给机构投资者和公众,加上它之前已发售了16亿股给“基石投资者”,因此总共筹集到55亿美元(70亿新元)。

  新加坡证券投资者协会研究(SIAS Research)分析师黄建锝认为,考虑到这个首次公开售股的规模相当大,和记所取得的认购率算不错。他在和记港口信托首日交易前指出,该公司很幸运能在日本这个危机之前筹得这些资金。而且正如许多市场人士所预期的,他认为其股价很可能跌破发售价。

  眼见股价显著跌破发售价,和记港口信托管理人主席霍建宁昨日在挂牌仪式上仍然冷静接受众记者的访问,而面对“三大类问题”,他则见招拆招。

针对第一类——对股价首日如此下跌有何看法,他说“现在才刚开始,闭市后再说”;针对第二类——日本这次危机是否影响港口吞吐和感受供应链干扰,他说“那是上个拜五才刚发生的事(意即现在说为时尚早)”;针对第三类——为何选择新加坡以及对以新元报价交易的看法,他说“因为有大股东包括新加坡投资者”以及“我们乐于看到(和记港口信托以新元交易),因为我们是在新加坡挂牌”。

  新加坡国际港务集团(PSA International)主席霍兆华昨日对媒体说:“新加坡国际港务集团很高兴作为和记港口信托的一个主要投资者。我们有信心那些码头在和记港口信托的管理团队能干的管理下,将继续发展并且扩充,以支持在华南珠江三角洲已发展起而且仍在继续增长的制造业、物流以及其他经济活动。更重要的是,继续改善业务表现和盈利率,使所有股东受益。”

  针对这只信托股首日交易,市场人士看法不一,之前有交易员担心该股最终可能下跌10%。但是有分析员指出,和记港口信托能创造强劲的现金流,股价最终将会回弹。Fundsupermart总经理王绥钊指出:“这个抛压应该是暂时性的。基础因素还没改变,抛压活动已使该股显得更吸引人。”

“操盘手”德意志银行
进场购7050万股“稳定价格”
  和记港口信托的“操盘手”——德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)昨日进场“稳定价格”,在0.945美元至0.975美元之间进场,共买了7050万股。

  德意志银行向新交所披露信息表示,它作为这个公开发股上市的“稳定价格经理”(Stabilizing Manager),昨日进场(包括通过代表它的交易员)购买了这些数量的和记港口信托股。这项披露显示,昨日和记港口信托的6亿1678万股交易量,有超过11%是由这个“稳定价格经理”买下,这显示该股昨日获得扶盘的力度——6700万美元至6874万美元(8500万新元至8760万新元)的买单支持。


和记港口信托今年内 也将以新元报价交易
新加坡交易所(SGX)将提供便利,让和记港口信托(HPHT)在今年内也以新元报价交易,不只是以美元报价交易。新交所主席周俊成昨日在和记港口信托的挂牌交易仪式上讲话时,透露了这项消息。
  和记港口信托目前是以美元报价交易。这将是新交所首次让一只股票同时以两种货币报价和交易。至于是否将有两只“和记港口信托”(一只以新元报价交易、一只以美元报价交易),新交所发言人受询时表示,详情还在洽谈中。

  和记港口信托管理人主席霍建宁昨日受询时表示欢迎。他说:“我们乐于看到这个发展,因为公司是在新加坡挂牌。”

  昨天和记港口信托的首日交易自然是受万众瞩目的活动,但在新交所举行的挂牌交易仪式一如其他商业信托的,并没有特别节目,也和普洛斯(GLP)一样集聚不少企业和投资与金融界翘楚,包括淡马锡控股(Temasek Holdings)执行董事兼首席执行官何晶以及新加坡国际港务集团(PSA International)主席霍兆华。所不同的是,这是周俊成担任新交所主席以来,第一次出席挂牌仪式。

  周俊成说:“在这个颇具挑战的市场环境,和记港口信托所吸引的市场兴趣,证明了它的素质。”他指出,在新交所挂牌的商业信托因此增至九只,总市值也因此增至120亿美元。

  他透露:“我们将负责提供方便,让和记港口信托在上市第一年内,除了以美元交易之外,也以新元交易。”

  霍建宁昨日在仪式上讲话时指出,这个上市活动是以前所未见的四个星期完成。他表示:“我们非常非常高兴能够来到这里。这本身已是一个成功,我们期待未来取得更多个成功。”

  随着两人讲话完毕,台上台下开始准备倒数迎接和记港口信托上市交易,然后大家举杯“饮胜”祝贺,霍建宁兴致高昂,与贵宾们欢声交谈,并与周俊成代表新交所与和记港口信托互赠纪念品。



Source/转贴/Extract/: 联合早报》
Publish date:19/03/11

经济不会立即复苏,但机会可能出现

(译:杨佳文) 2011年03月17日
展望
文:蔡明辉

由于日本的核危机可能会危及全球经济,亚洲股市在星期二因恐慌性抛售而遭受重挫。自上周五日本发生地震的消息传出之后,日经225指数在短短两个交易日内共下跌了1,649点或16.08%。

区域其他股市也未能幸免,海峡时报指数和恒生指数在两天内分别下跌了3.04%和2.46%。

在日本发生地震之前,股市已经因为油价上涨和中东与北非的紧张局势而疲弱。另外,资金也逐渐撤出亚洲市场并回流至欧美股市。

海指目前已从2010年11月9日创下的3,313点高位滑落至2,932点的低位。其最接近的支持位将是2,920点。但以一些主要成分股的表现来看,海指最终的支持位很可能会在2,820点至2,850点的范围内。

查看图片


STI support levels

“亚洲股神” 胡立阳说过,“熊市”的定义是指股市出现连续3个月抛售,而指数在之前的最低位和最高位之间回撤30%。以此方程式计算,海指之前的最低位和最高位分别为1,455点和3,313点[(3313-1455)x30%=557],因此2,755点将会是下一个重要的支持水平。由此可见,虽然海指自1月份开始出现抛售,但其跌幅尚不至于令其掉入熊市中。

日本的不明朗因素将会导致世界经济放缓,但应该不至于使股市崩盘。美国实行的第二轮量化宽松货币政策(QE2)使市场充斥着资金,这些钞票放在银行一点用也没有,最好就是用来帮助世界从当前的灾难中恢复过来。

那我们现在究竟是应该买入、卖出还是持守?若你手头上的股票已达到你所设定的止损价格,那你当然应该卖出。在股票买卖方面,我们的目标应为“用小损失积攒大胜利(Big Win, Small losses)”。另外,我们也必须做好心理准备面对多次小损失。

但倘若你想趁机买入,问题就会变成:“在起伏不定的股市中,我们该如何选股?”

“买得早不如买的好。”

技术上来说,要准确地猜测一只股是否已跌至谷底并不容易,这就好比想要接住一把正在往下掉的刀子,投资者必须把握好股价回弹的时机。因此,买得早不如买的好。

股市目前仍处于跌势中。当抛售停止时,交易量将大幅减少,“大户”就会开始慢慢买入股票。这时候交易量和股价也会逐渐回升。

胡立阳有10种选股方法,我在此为大家介绍其中一种。

“低迷行情中,周线静悄悄出现连两红,起长中的成交量又大于过去周量的25%之上。”

意思是说,当股市淡静,前景黯淡时,若一只股票的每周图表显示它连续两个星期开低走高,而第二周的交易量比第一周多出25%以上,表示“买入”讯号出现。

无论在任何情况下,股市总是机会处处。你是否已经作好准备来迎接复苏的到来?

蔡明辉是一名任职于AmFraser Securities的资深股票经纪,他经常在关于股市的讲座和课程上主讲授课。Augustine是胡立阳老师的忠实追随者和学生,并一直以来采用胡老师的概念和教导方式来教导其客户,让他们获益不浅。

Source/转贴/Extract/:www.sharesinv.com
Publish date:17/03/11

Marc Faber - Opportunity to Invest in Japan?



All stock markets and commodity markets were due for a meaningful correction. Any big event was likely to trigger a correction. The Tsunami was unfortunate, but it was a needed catalyst for this correction. The Japanese economy will probably experience some inflation because of this. This is also very bad news for the Yen. It is a big turning point, and it will continue to weaken. This is an opportunity in Japanese equities, but if there is a nuclear meltdown, then there could be a tremendous devastation on the people, the government, the economy, and the financial prospects for Japan.

If the nuclear scenario doesn't pan out, then this could be a great opportunity to invest in Japan. There is also the possibility that a second earthquake could cause even more damage. This will cause the financial world to watch this nuclear situation very closely. However, this could be rather healthy, since they won't be hanging on Ben Bernanke's every word anymore.

The money printer will continue to print. After QE3, you might as well expect QE4, QE5, QE6, QE7. Ben Bernanke doesn't know anything about economics, but he certainly watches the stock indices everyday. If he sees them weaken, then he will try to flood the markets with more money.

The outlook for employment is not good. In general, a nuclear meltdown is mildly positive for coal and oil. Oil is still a good bet from a risk reward perspective. Whether you think everything is going to collapse or whether you think everything is going to be sunny, oil will probably do well. However, remember that if you invest in oil companies and the price of oil goes up, the United States government will most likely impose an excess profits tax.

Until very recently, the Federal Reserve has had very few critiques. Within the past few months, there has been more criticism. Sadly, if the S&P index drops, those same critics will begin begging for more money printing.


Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:15/03/11

Jim Rogers - Opportunities from Disasters



This disaster is going to be good for commodity prices, especially rice. It's not good for the world or good for Japan, but opportunities always come out of disasters for those who are paying attention.

It might be a good time to step in and buy rice. Agriculture in Japan may be a great thing to buy also. There aren't many things that you should really sell right now.

If the Japanese car industry stays closed, people are still going to buy cars. They will buy them from Germany or from America. Most likely, this is going to pass. Toyota will open again. If they are down significantly, then it is a good time to buy them.

This is going to cause a rundown of many reserves of commodities. That will cause an adjustment to the supply side of commodities, and there will be tremendous opportunities.

Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:17/03/11

Jim Rogers - Nuclear Fear Will Affect the Oil Price



The Japanese event isn't going to be deflationary. There is a lot of money printing, and that will be inflationary. They are also going to buy a lot of things to rebuild. The downtrend in gold and oil isn't going to continue. All the suspicion about nuclear power now means that there will be an even greater demand for oil in the near future, which will put some upward pressure on the price of oil.

Good idea to be short emerging markets, short the Nasdaq, long on commodities, and short on commodities, particularly the Japanese Yen.

There is inflation in the world. It is only the central bankers, especially in the United States and Japan who are trying to convince us otherwise. We have major problems coming

Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:17/03/11

Fundamentals intact despite weak market sentiment

Fundamentals intact despite weak market sentiment
(RHB Research property sector update March 18,2011)


By RHB Research
Friday, 18 March 2011 10:21

Property

♦ Sector not in favour in a volatile market. While we remain positive on the sector, we are not bullish particularly in the coming 2Q11 considering the choppy volatile market ahead driven by the ongoing political upheavals in the Middle East countries and natural disasters. The property sector is known for its cyclical and high beta nature, and it is not a heavy weight component in the FBM KLCI. We hence do not expect the property stocks to perform well in 2Q. For sector exposure, we advise investors to go for low beta property stocks such as Paramount (with attractive dividend angle) as well as Mah Sing, where valuations are still relatively undemanding. REITs also could turn in favour due to their defensive yields.

♦ More exciting in 2H11. We think it is appropriate to go for selective high beta stocks only if there is a strong project flow. More news flow is likely to materialise in 2H, and key events to watch out for is the results for the tenders by developers for the Rubber Research Institute land parcels in Sg Buloh, MRT’s “rail plus property” that Prasarana will develop with JV partners for the commercial development surrounding the stations, and the official award and equity structure of the development of land parcels in Singapore. The biggest (potential) beneficiaries for these projects are MRCB, Ekovest (for the land along its river cleaning project) and UEM Land, which share price, to a certain extent, has priced in and will be supported. The key surprise will be the JV winners in particular for the RRI land, which we think are likely to be the GLC-linked reputable developers.

♦ M&A stories still exist. We believe the M&A catalyst for the sector still exists, which should hence keep the sector warm. Speculation will be centered on “who is next” to merge with MRCB, after the deal to merge with IJM Land lapsed. Similar to ULHB/Sunrise (a property arm of Khazanah), MRCB is the “so-called” construction/property arm of EPF, but MRCB is lagging behind in its property development and brand name. In addition, by merging with a reputable developer, its valuations are expected to normalise to a reasonable level in hopes of better fundamental grounds.

♦ Risks. 1) Regulatory risks; 2) Rising construction cost; and 3) Country risks.

♦ Maintain Overweight. Our picks for 2Q are: Mah Sing (OP, FV = RM3.03) and Paramount (OP, FV = RM5.92). High beta with strong news flow such as ULHB could provide some short-term trading angle.

♦ Sector not in favour in a volatile market. While we remain positive on the sector, we are not bullish particularly in the coming 2Q11 considering the choppy volatile market ahead driven by the ongoing political upheavals in the Middle East countries as well as the recent natural disasters. The property sector is known for its cyclical and high beta nature, and it is not a heavy weight component in the FBM KLCI index that investors would normally position themselves during market selldown. We hence expect the property stocks will only have a mediocre performance in 2Q. For sector exposure, we advise investors to go for low beta property stocks such as Paramount (with attractive dividend angle) as well as Mah Sing, where valuations are still relatively undemanding. Both stocks have a beta of less than 1, and their 1-year and 6-month total returns (inclusive of dividend) are rather respectable (See Table 3).

♦ REITs are in favour. MREITs could turn in favour again in a down market, given their defensive nature and sustainable yields of 6-8%. We continue to like Axis REIT and both retail REITs – Sunway REIT and CMMT. We expect Axis REIT to continue with its assets expansion plans this year, potentially by another RM300m. In the pipeline, potential assets include: (i) Axis Technology Center 2 (from the promoter); (ii) one logistics warehouse in Johor; (iii) one warehouse in Pasir Gudang Johor; (iv) one warehousing/logistic and manufacturing facility in Shah Alam/Klang; (v) two brand new logistics warehouses in Klang Valley for a MNC; and (vi) two new office buildings in Cyberjaya. Total size of these potential assets is worth about RM400m. As for the two retails REITs, yield performance will continue to be underpinned by higher rental reversion as well as consumer spending.

♦ Has sector fundamentals changed? Although developers continued to report strong sales in all recent new launches, we see limited upside for developers to raise property selling price further particularly for the property hotspots within the Klang Valley region (but prices in suburbs such as Kajang, Melawati and Rawang are still catching up). Having increased sharply over the past 1-2 years (15-16% in KL and Selangor state as reported by JPPH, but could be higher in selective locations), property price increase is expected to slow down this year possibly with a growth of 5-10%, as prices in certain townships are reaching an “optimal” level whereby further increase in selling prices will not be able to be fully absorbed by sufficient demand. In selective phases of townships such as Bandar Kinrara and Setia Alam, the phenomenon of “fully sold on the first day of launch” is not seen anymore in some recent new launches. Having said that, this could also be partially due to the impact of the
70% loan-to-value ratio cap that was imposed by BNM effective from Nov last year, which was targeted to clamp down speculative buying. To note, loan application and approvals for the purchase of residential properties declined for three consecutive months as at Jan 2011.

♦ Impact of rate hike. While RHBRI’s economics team had earlier expected interest hikes in 2H2011, given the heightening concern on inflation and the monetary tightening measures undertaken by the central banks in the region, interest rate hike could come in earlier, either in May or July this year. Impact on property demand is unlikely to be significant, as based on our checks with developers, many are still offering attractive packages such as “interest free/no installment during construction period” that significantly lower the upfront entry cost to a property. Historical data has also shown that the negative relationship between property prices (as measured by ARPP – average residential property price) and interest rate (Average Lending Rate and Base Lending Rate) is not as strong except during the 1997/98 Asian Financial Crisis period. That said, the increase in interest rate could dampen market sentiment as property demand is typically perceived to be sensitive to changes in mortgage rates.

How effective is the regulatory measures in regional markets?

♦ Yes, there is an impact. Countries in the region such as Singapore, Hong Kong and China have started implementing various tightening regulatory measures to cool the “overheating” property markets since two years ago. Due to the influx of liquidity in the Asian region coupled with low interest rates, property prices were stubbornly high at the initial stage but after rounds of tightening, the stringent measures have begun to take effect. The increase in property prices has become mild lately with China reported a +0.3% mom growth in Dec 2010 (same growth in Nov) for top 70 cities and Singapore registered a 2.7% qoq growth in 4Q10 (vs 2.9% in 3Q10).

♦ Malaysia – anymore tightening? We believe some gestation period is still required after the imposition of the 70% cap on loan-to-value ratio for buyers with more than two outstanding mortgage loans effective from 3rd Nov 2010. Considering that loans approved for residential property have declined for three consecutive months as at Jan 2011, we think Malaysia is still relatively safe from further tightening. If any, we think higher real property gain tax (RPGT) is more likely in 2H2011, which is a more effective way to control speculative buying. Since the announcement of Budget 2010 in end 2009, RPGT has been kept at 5% for properties sold within five years of purchase. If the Government decides to further clamp down speculations, we expect RPGT to be raised but progressively lower with higher tax rate for properties sold within the first two years of purchase.

Key news flow to watch out

♦ News flow in 1Q11 – MRT project. News flow thus far in the year has been centered on the potential MRT beneficiaries. While we concur that the MRT project generally has a positive impact on the property sector due to better connectivity, we think the actual impact will not ormalize e at anytime soon as it all depends on how soon the developers ormali the values (i.e. turnaround of landbank) and considering that the MRT will only be completed in 2016. In addition, the extent of which a developer can extract the highest values from the MRT (via higher GDVs) is highly dependant on how the MRT will change the population profile/traffic flow in that area as well as the design of the properties to integrate with the stations. YTL Land is a good example. Over the years, launches of the commercial development have been slow largely due to the influx of massive supply of office space in the KL city centre area. With the MRT circle line passing through the Sentul area, YTL Land’s land in Sentul is said to be the crown jewel due to the expected higher land values. However, unless the development plan is changed, the MRT network may actually change the population/traffic flow profile and hence value enhancement may not be that significant for the 186-acre Sentul West, which is designated for high-end commercial development as the MRT project may increase the flow of low-middle income group in that area. All in all, we believe the MRT network will only benefit specific projects on a case-by-case basis and the impact is only meaningful for developers if it actually translates into their earnings over the intermediate term.

♦ What else in the pipeline? We think 2H2011 will be more exciting and it is appropriate to go for selective high beta stocks only if there is a strong project flow. More news flow is likely to ormalize e in 2H, and key events to watch out for is the results for the tenders by developers for the 2,680-acre Rubber Research Institute land parcels in Sg Buloh, and MRT’s “rail plus property” that Prasarana will develop with JV partners for the commercial development surrounding the stations. It was reported that of the 35 stations along the MRT line, 5 to 10 of them could be turned into developments with plans (“rail plus property”). Apart from these, the official award and equity structure of the development of land parcels in Singapore are also much anticipated. The biggest (potential) beneficiaries for these projects are MRCB, Ekovest (for the land along its river cleaning project) and UEM Land, which share price, to a certain extent, has priced in and will be supported. The key surprise will be the JV winners in particular for the RRI land as well as the “rail plus property” developments, which we think are likely to be the GLC-linked reputable developers. This is hard to pinpoint, but we think the best bets are still the big players such as SP Setia, IJM Land and Mah Sing, with common shareholders held by key institutional fund – EPF.

♦ M&A activities stories will still excite. Although 1Q2011 has been quiet thus far except for some landbanking deals by SP Setia – 266 acres of land in Johor, 40 acres MOH land in Bangsar and 268 acres of land in Cyberjaya, M&A stories are still brewing within the sector. Key catalysts will be centered on the next potential candidate to merge with MRCB, after the deal to merge with IJM Land was failed end of last year. The reason that we think MRCB still needs a partner is that, similar to ULHB-Sunrise, which is essentially a property arm of Khazanah, MRCB is the “so-called” construction/property arm of EPF – with a shareholding of 41.5%. However, apart from being a contractor/developer for the renowned KL Sentral, MRCB is lagging behind in its property development and brand name, and hence it needs a strong partner to enhance or strengthen its property division. In addition, by merging with a reputable developer, its valuations are expected to ormalize to a more reasonable level in hopes of better fundamental grounds. The stock is currently trading at 26x forward PE. In our view, potential target companies should have sizeable landbank in strategic locations as well as high shareholdings held by EPF, either direct or indirectly via a listed parent company (See Table 5 for potential candidates). Apart from MRCB, we do not rule out the possibility that UEM Land may embark on an acquisition trail again, as the company has continuously looked out for opportunities to diversify its landbank. Diversification could be achieved either via an outright acquisition of landbank, or a property developer with attractive landbank location. It is reasonable for target companies to have a strategic exposure either in the Klang Valley region or Penang, which UEM Land currently does not have a wide presence. Having said that, we believe this (if any) will only happen at a later stage, as currently the company has an important priority to integrate its operations with Sunrise, which acquisition was only completed in Feb this year.

Key Risks for the sector

♦ Risks. Key risks for the property sector are: 1) regulatory risk; 2) rising costs of building materials; and 3) country risks. Valuations and Recommendations

♦ Valuations back to +1 stdev of PE. In terms of PE, most of the property stocks are currently trading at around +1 stdev of historical PE mean. In tandem with the market, most stocks have retraced by 12-24% from their peak achieved in Jan 2011. The most resilient stock, as expected, is Paramount. In terms of PB, most stocks are still trading at between +1 and +2 stdev of historical PB mean. Although valuations are not cheap, we think these developers are well

♦ Go for lower beta; Maintain Overweight. In our opinion, apart from the key catalyst on news flow as well as M&As, we think the sector has roughly priced in the fundamentals. To re-iterate, in view of the choppy equity market ahead, for investors who would like to have or maintain exposure to the sector, lower beta stocks with cheap valuations are recommended, such as Mah Sing and Paramount. We think investors should also be selective to bet on the potential beneficiaries from the RRI land, and again, big players such as SP Setia, IJM Land and Mah Sing, with GLC fund backing (as major shareholders) are the best candidates. UEM Land will still provide some trading angle in late 2Q11 in anticipation of the news flow coming from the development of Singapore land. Meanwhile, we believe catalysts for the small cap property stocks are limited after a short rally in early 2011. As such, we lower our fair value for the small cap stocks under our coverage – Glomac and YNH (See Table 7 for changes in fair value and rating). As for KSL, the stock is still largely undervalued (at 60% discount to RNAV) considering that it has just received its approval for its Bandar Bestari township project in Klang. With this sizeable development (GDV RM2.5bn) in hand, KSL’s property development income from bread-and-butter projects will be more substantial and sustainable, in addition to its maiden rental income contribution from KSL City shopping mall from FY11. Overall, as we are keeping our calls on big cap stocks, we therefore maintain our Overweight rating on the sector. Our top pick is Mah Sing.



Source/转贴/Extract/: www.theedgeproperty.com
Publish date:18/03/11

'There's no cause for alarm here'

'There's no cause for alarm here'
No signs of radioactive contamination in water, air
by Dylan Loh
04:46 AM Mar 19, 2011
SINGAPORE - Repeating the Government's reassurances - which came in the form of a comprehensive public statement on Tuesday - the National Environment Agency (NEA) and water agency PUB held a media briefing on Friday with a clear message: There is no cause for alarm in spite of the nuclear crisis in Japan.

Radiation levels, which have been monitored by the NEA since Monday, have not shown any abnormal changes. The water supplies also do not indicate any signs of contamination, PUB said.

Environment and Water Resources Minister Yaacob Ibrahim told reporters on the sidelines of the briefing that the data showed a "very safe level", with radiation averaging about 0.1 microsievert per hour - taking into account background radiation.

Said Dr Yaacob: "Looking ahead, in the worst-case scenario, if there is a radioactive plume resulting from an explosion at the incident site, the risk of it arriving in Singapore is indeed very low because we are about 5,000 kilometres away."

He added: "Even if we assume that there are prevailing winds transporting the plume towards Singapore, by the time the plume has travelled that distance, the concentration would have been reduced significantly, back to ... the normal background levels. So there is minimal risk of Singapore being affected by any radiological plume."

Separately, Health Minister Khaw Boon Wan also reiterated that the risk "outside of Fukushima is very low and certainly (for) Singapore ... the risk is an extremely low one".

"In any case we have to be geared up, just in case," said Mr Khaw, who was speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the inaugural Australian Alumni Awards.

Latest updates on the Japan situation can be found on the website of the NEA, which is closely tracking the impact. NEA is also conducting daily studies to determine likely wind directions.

The NEA has deployed two machines to monitor radiation levels: One at its Scotts Road headquarters and the other at the Singapore Meteorological Services premises in Changi.

The machines monitor the air for contamination round-the-clock. Readings are sent via the country's 3G mobile network to an information database for monitoring.

Dr Anthony Goh, who heads the department of nuclear medicine at the Singapore General Hospital, said that there is also no need to rush for potassium iodide pills.

Said Dr Goh: "It is not a magic cure for any form of radiation exposure. The only purpose of taking potassium iodide tablets is to saturate the thyroid gland with non-radioactive iodine to block the access of radioactive iodine into the body."

And the public should only take such tablets when instructed by the authorities, said Dr Goh.

----

S'pore radiation levels normal, says NEA
by Dylan Loh Updated
10:40 PM Mar 18, 2011
The National Environment Agency (NEA) said on Friday that there are no abnormal changes in radiation levels in Singapore and the public should not be unduly alarmed.

The same assurance came from national water agency PUB which said it is monitoring water supplies and there is no sign of contamination so far.

Natural background radiation varies from place to place, but NEA said the average level in Singapore averages at about 0.1 microsieverts per hour, which is within safe limits.

It said it is closely tracking the impact of the Fukushima nuclear incident, and is conducting daily modelling studies.

As Singapore is located more than 5,000 kilometres away from Fukushima, NEA said there is minimal risk of Singapore being affected by the radioactive plume.

"Looking ahead, in the worst-case scenario, if there is a radioactive plume resulting from an explosion at the incident site, the risk of it arriving in Singapore is indeed very low because we are about 5,000 kilometres away," said Environment and Water Resources Minister Yaacob Ibrahim at the NEA news conference on Friday.

"But even if we assume that there are prevailing winds transporting the plume towards Singapore, by the time the plume has travelled that distance, the concentration would have been reduced significantly, back to sort of the normal background levels. So there is minimal risk of Singapore being affected by any radiological plume."

The UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) currently categorises the Fukushima incident as level 4, which is an "accident with local consequences".

But Japan's nuclear safety agency on Friday raised the threat level to 5, indicating "an accident with wider consequences".



Source/转贴/Extract/: Today.com
Publish date:19/03/11

Hutchison Ports IPO under water

by Rachel Adrienne Kelly
04:46 AM Mar 19, 2011
SINGAPORE - Units in Hutchison Port Holdings Trust fell on their debut on Friday by as much as 6.9 per cent from their inital public offering (IPO) price as sentiment across the region continued to be weighed down by the disaster in Japan.

Priced at US$1.01 (S$1.30), well below the top end of its indicative range of US$0.91 to US$1.08, the units fell as low as US$0.94 before closing at US$0.95, on a total volume of 616.8 million.

The business trust, which owns container terminals in Shenzhen and Hong Kong, sold about 5.4 billion units to raise US$5.5 billion and become South-east Asia's largest-ever and the world's biggest IPO so far this year.

Cornerstone investors, including a unit of Singapore investment company Temasek Holdings, invested US$1.62 billion in the IPO.

Asian equities, already rattled by political instability in the Middle East, tumbled this week on concerns about radiation leaks from a nuclear plant in Japan. Singapore's Straits Times Index has fallen by about 4.5 per cent since the Japan quake.

Despite the weak debut, the chairman of the Trustee-Manager remained optimistic.

"I think considering the situation, this is excellent," said Mr Canning Fok at the listing ceremony. He said the earthquake's impact was "minimal" on the trust, which holds assets from Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing's Hutchison Whampoa.

Most analysts and traders agreed with Mr Fok's assessment, saying a fall was expected as the IPO was priced before the disaster struck Japan.

Mr Ng Kian Teck, investment analyst at SIAS Research, said: "Hutchison's price actually went down largely as the market priced in several factors, one of which is the Japan disaster, second of which is the Middle East turmoil. So we are actually not surprised to see the Hutchison price come down … The volume was very high which means that interest in this IPO is still present."

Mr Magnus Bocker, chief executive of the Singapore Exchange (SGX), said that with a market capitalisation of US$8.8 billion, Hutchison Port Holdings Trust brings the total number of business trusts on the SGX to nine, with a combined market value of about US$11.9 billion. Rachel Kelly

Source/转贴/Extract/: Today.com
Publish date:19/03/11

A less than stellar debut

Investors lured by Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-Shing’s Hutchison Port Holdings Trust were left disappointed when units of the business trust began trading on the Singapore Exchange at 2pm on March 18. The units opened at US$0.975 ($1.245), 3.5% below its offer price of US$1.01, deflated by Japan’s nuclear problems and mounting tensions in the Middle East.

HPH Trust closed its first day of trading at US$0.95 each, down almost 6%, with 617 million units changing hands. Hutchison Port Holdings, the sponsor of HPH Trust, now owns an 87% stake in the trust, while Singapore sovereign wealth fund Temasek Holdings owns 2.6%, according to Bloomberg data.

However, had it not been for “the unforeseen circumstances in Japan”, HPH Trust might have seen higher subscription levels, says Divay Goel of Drewry Maritime Consultants.

HPH Trust had actually seen strong institutional interest during the first few days of the subscription period, prompting its bankers to close the institutional book one day early due to oversubscription, news wires reported. But retail investors who had not applied for the units changed their minds after the 8.9 magnitude quake and tsunami hit Japan. All in, the IPO was 2.9 times subscribed with 3.8 billion units sold to institutional investors and the public.

Here's how the shares were allocated: 10,831 investors who applied to 2 to 9 lots of the trusts were allocated 2 lots each, representing 11.7% of the units available under the public offer. Meanwhile, the 5,539 and 2,455 investors who applied for 10 to 19 lots and 20 to 49 lots of the trust, respectively, were allocated with 8 and 18 lots, taking up 23.9% each, respectively, of the available public offer units.

Although the trust raised US$5.5 billion in IPO proceeds, slightly lower than the previously expected US$5.8 billion had the offer been priced at the maximum of US$1.08 each, the stock still made it into the record books as the largest IPO on Singapore. HPH Trust owns and operates two of the busiest deep water ports in Shenzhen and Hong Kong, which together handled more than 21 million TEUs in total throughput last year.

Should investors be worried? Analysts at Credit Suisse expect the stock to be included on the MSCI world index and ranked 10th after Noble Group, and point out that Global Logistic Properties and Capitamalls Asia were both included by MSCI immediately upon listing. However, they believe the stock could lose steam within its first 2 weeks of trading. “GLP jumped 11% on its debut and CMA rose 8%,” they write in a March 18 note. “At the same time GLP peaked on its 10th day of trading and CMA peaked on the 14th day of its debut.”

Meanwhile, Oh Kuan Yu of CLSA Asia Pacific Markets warns in a March 4 report of potential constraints in the underlying port assets of the trust, based on the current amount of retained earnings at the ports. Oh believes the trust can only pay out its earnings after 2012 and prefers Hong Kong-listed port operator China Merchants, which offers more value with its added hinterland exposure.

Whatever the case, Goel of Drewry is positive on the long-term outlook of the stock. “Based on its business trust structure and mature ports, being able to actually list and raise proceeds in the billions is already considered a success,” says Goel, who believes the trust could have fared much worse. “The weakness we are seeing is true of the entire equities market in general. HPH Trust is a fundamentally strong yield play with a reputable name and should stabilise over the next few weeks once the volatility subsides.” -- Kang Wan

Source/转贴/Extract/: The EDGE Weekend
Publish date:18/03/11

Friday, March 18, 2011

年入至少2万4千元 信用卡申请条件提高

年入至少2万4千元 信用卡申请条件提高
2011/03/18 5:41:08 PM
●南洋商报


娜珊茜雅:我国信用卡诈骗案占信用卡交易额的0.03。
(吉隆坡18日讯)国家银行今日宣布收紧信用卡管制,在新指南下,信用卡申请门槛,从原本最低年收入1万8000令吉,提高至2万4000令吉。

与此同时,国行也宣布,即日起,年收入3万6000令吉或以下者,只能申请最多两家银行的信用卡,每家银行提供的信贷上限为两个月的总收入。

国行副总裁娜珊茜雅今日召开新闻发布会时指出,虽然年收入3万6000令吉或以下者,最多只能申请两家银行的信用卡,但国行并没有限制他们向个别银行申请信用卡的数量。

持卡人欠银行308亿

娜珊茜雅解释,民众可同时持有万事达卡、威世卡及美国运通卡(AMEX),不过,他们所持有的信用卡,只能由两家银行发出。

她说,涉及的两家银行皆会根据持卡人的两个月总收入,设定信用卡的信贷顶额,若其中一家银行共发出两张信用卡给其持卡人,两张信用卡的总信贷上限,就是持卡人两个月的总收入。

妥善管理财务

娜珊茜雅指出,国行推行信用卡新指南,是为了向持卡人灌输妥善管理财务的正确态度。

她说,在2010年因拖欠信用卡债务而破产的持卡人有622人,或只有0.02%,惟银行的信用卡欠债却多达308亿令吉。

她说,622名拖欠信用卡债务而破产者,三分之二的年龄是超过45岁,而30岁以下者则占1%。

她也引述信贷咨询与债务管理机构(AKPK)的数据指出,超过60%的持卡人年收入少过3万6000令吉,即月薪低于3000令吉。

信用卡新指南例子

例子一

年收入3万6000令吉或以下者

阿明月薪为2000令吉,目前持有的信用卡包括:

-A银行发出的两张信用卡(威士卡及万事达卡),两张信用卡的刷卡上限总额为4000令吉,拖欠的卡债为3000令吉

-B银行发出的美国运通卡(AMEX),刷卡上限为1000令吉,拖欠的卡债为800令吉

-C银行发出的威士卡,刷卡上限为2000令吉,拖欠的卡债为1000令吉

》在新指南实施后,阿明必须在2011年12月结束前,取消A、B或C银行(其中一家)所发出的信用卡

》若阿明取消A银行的信用卡,他必须在两年内,摊还本身所拖欠的3000令吉卡债



例子二

每家银行刷卡上限为持卡人2个月总收入

阿东月薪为3000令吉,目前持有两家银行,即A银行及B银行的信用卡。

他的信用卡情况如下:

-A银行的刷卡上限为8000令吉,拖欠的卡债为6500令吉

-B银行的刷卡上限为7000令吉,拖欠的卡债为7000令吉

在新指南实施后,阿东的信用卡使用必须很大的调整。

》阿东在A银行及B银行的个别刷卡上限,最高只能6000令吉

》阿东必须在两年内,就是在2013年4月1日前,降低所拖欠的卡债至6000令吉。



信用卡新指南重点

申请信用卡资格:

● 申请信用卡门槛从最低年收入1万8000令吉,提高至2万4000令吉,即时生效

年收入3万6000令吉或以下者:

● 只能持有两家银行的信用卡

● 持有超过3家银行发出的信用卡者,今年前只能保留其中的两家信用卡

● 被放弃的信用卡拖欠的卡债,可在两年内清还

● 每家银行发出的信用卡,信贷上限为持卡人两个月的总收入



Source/转贴/Extract/:南洋商报
Publish date:18/03/11

银行合并风继续吹 传明年9家变5家

2011/03/18 6:49:48 PM
●南洋商报 报道:刘慧欣

(吉隆坡18日讯)马来西亚银行领域并购风今年将继续吹,预测9家银行将减少至5家,为2012年银行业的新景象,不过,马银行(Maybank,1155,主板金融股)龙头老大的地位仍坚不可摧。

达证券预料,银行市场在2012年会迎来新的景象,并猜测联昌国际(CIMB,1023,主板金融股)与艾芬控股(Affin,5185,主板金融股)、兴业资本(RHBCap,1066,主板金融股)与大马投资银行(AMMB,1015,主板金融股),安联金融(AFG,2488,主板金融股)与星展银行,将展开“联姻”活动。

分析员预料,在2012年以前,市场将会迎接3个并购活动,9家银行将变成5家。

“银行市场不断传出并购新闻,虽然联昌国际矢口否认与艾芬控股的并购案,但可靠消息来源指出,这项活动有望在半年后定案。”

与此同时,由于兴业银行的大股东阿布扎比商业银行,很可能在获得合理价格后,脱售25%的持股权,这也提高兴业资本及大马投资银行合并的几率。

至于安联金融与星展银行,也存在庞大的合并潜能。

虽然安联否认“大老板”淡马锡控股将会“做媒”促成这桩婚事,但达证券却看到两者合并后的协同作用及正面效应,因此不排除合并的可能。

不过,分析员也强调,即便在合并风过后,马银行(Maybank,1155,主板金融股)仍稳坐龙头老大的位置,资产规模仍然是业界最大。

联昌艾芬协同效益不大

联昌国际及艾芬控股在合并后将名列第二;大众银行(PbBank,1295,主板金融股)的资产规模或滑落到第四,原来的老三位置,将由合并后的大马投资银行及兴业资本取代。

在众多合并中,大马投资银行及兴业资本的“婚事”将让双方受惠最多,集团网络即可大增,扩大后的银行也可提高贷款及投资银行的市场份额,资本能力及经济效益提升一倍。

“银行在合并后,回教银行业务将排在马银行之后,成为全国第二大。”

反观,联昌国际及艾芬控股的合并,并不具太大的协同作用。

分析员说:“艾芬控股的资产规模很小,艾芬在全国共有90家分行,因此,将推高联昌国际的分行数目至410家,但对资产素质却没有太大的作用。”

马银行及联昌国际最有可能从上述利好中受惠,达证券因此对银行领域维持“增持”评级。

达证券点评各银行合并活动

联昌国际 + 艾芬控股 每股收购价:4.20令吉至4.70令吉

在合并后,联昌国际的网络数将马上从目前的320家,增加至410家,超越马银行的364家。

但是资产价值仅有3164亿令吉,仍无法追上“一哥”马银行的3576亿令吉。

贷款方面,联昌国际较专注在消费贷款,艾芬控的消费及商业贷款则较为平衡,比重分别是43%及48%。

“在合并后,联昌国际的商业贷款将获得提振,特别是中小型企业部分,其商业贷款有望从目前的37%增加至38.6%,当中中小型企业更明显增至29%,目前只占总贷款16.6%。”

与此同时,联昌国际也可因为合并,而提高在汽车贷款的涉足比重;然而,艾芬银行的房屋贷款比重低,因此合并反而会拖低新集团的房屋贷款比重。

需63至70亿

“艾芬控股的贷款增长势头强劲,因此可带动联昌国际的表现,之前联昌的本地贷款业务出现萎缩情况,在艾芬的带动下,联昌的本地贷款有望从12.6%提高至15.7%。”

根据过去记录,银行的合并活动价值约为2倍的价格对账目比率,由于艾芬的规模较小,因此据2011年财测,该银行在涨面价值在折价10%至20%后,账面价值为3.60令吉。

“依据上述计算,预料收购艾芬控股的合理价格为每股4.20至4.70令吉,意味联昌国际需投入63亿至70亿令吉的资金,作为收购用途。”

但根据今年的财测,合并在每股盈利或投资回酬方面,并不会有太显著的增值作用。

星展银行 + 安联金融 每股收购价:3.50令吉至4令吉

两家银行合并对彼此业务都有帮助,星展银行在中国及其他亚洲地区都建立据点,但在马来西亚却只有两家分行,数目明显低于大华银行及华侨银行。

在计算税前盈利时,两家分行占大马业务比重的12%及27%,可见安联金融若能与其“联婚”,将成为星展银行涉足大马市场强大平台。

至于安联金融,是大马规模最小的银行,虽然管理良好,但缺乏经济效应。

合并后,星展银行的贷款账面将提高6%;房屋、消费者及商业贷款,将分别提高9%、13%及14%。

两家银行合并后贷款业务虽然只能增6%,但兑换汇率后,数额却相当庞大,总贷款达2054亿新元(约4930亿令吉)。

由于星展银行的盈利,已多元化至各区域,因此安联金融对合并后的集团却无法做出显著的盈利贡献,但却有助提高协同作用及跨境交易的机会。

以安联金融2012年的财测为基础,在折价10%至20%后,每股账面价值为2.23令吉。

在根据领域内合并的2倍价格对账面价值计算,预料收购安联金融的献售价格,将介于每股3.50令吉至4令吉。

兴业资本 + 大马投资银行 网络数目有望超越马银行及联昌国际

两家银行的合并将马上把网络数目,推高至431家,扩大后的银行网络将超越马银行及联昌国际。

资产规模则达2240亿令吉,虽然仍落后马银行及联昌国际,但却非常接近2263亿令吉的大众银行,甚至有望取代后者,成为全国第三大银行银行。

大马投资银行在消费贷款的比重较大,兴业资本在消费及商业贷款的比重,则分别为40%及44%。

“有鉴于此,合并后的集团,可提高商业及消费者贷款近一倍,比重分别为40%及50%;中小型企业的贷款占12.6%。”

占贷款市场17.5%

合并后的银行集团,在国内贷款市占率方面将大举提高,即从目前的8.0%至9.5%,大增至17.5%。

“兴业资本的贷款增长势头强劲,去年第四季的按年增长率高达20.2%,因此可推动合并后集团的贷款表现,在汽车及房屋贷款方面,也将分别提高到30%及13%。”

存款业务也可透过合并进一步加强,目前大马投资银行的定存额为707亿令吉,兴业资本则高达944亿令吉,合并后将“吹涨”至1651亿令吉,或相等于国内存款市场的15%。

合并后的债券业务、企业贷款及投资银行业务将进一步壮大。

Source/转贴/Extract/: 南洋商报
Publish date:18/03/11

不敌Aspers竞争 云顶大马纽汉姆赌牌落空

不敌Aspers竞争 云顶大马纽汉姆赌牌落空
2011/03/18 6:39:33 PM
●南洋商报

(吉隆坡18日讯)云顶马来西亚(GenM,4715,主板贸服股)有意在英国休闲娱乐市场大展拳脚,但却在竞投英国纽汉姆(Newham)赌场执照失手。

去年,云顶马来西亚通过英国臂膀公司,与Apollo度假村,各别以50%股权成立一家联营公司,竞投纽汉姆赌场执照。

令市场失望

竞投纽汉姆赌场执照的业者还包括Grosvenor赌场、Great Eastern Quays赌场及Aspinall家族与Crown Limited联营的Aspers。

根据纽汉姆市政府网站的新闻发表,市政府执照委员会已颁发该大型赌场执照予Aspers,发展伦敦西田斯特拉特福德城(Westfield Stratford City)。

竞索利赫尔赌牌

摩根大通在一份报告指出,对于云顶马来西亚失去该大型赌场执照感到失望,并坦承对市场有轻微影响。

该券商早前曾表示,一旦云顶马来西亚在竞投该大型赌场执照成功出线,将是该股重新评估潜能催化剂,并且将能增强集团在英国赌场的地位。

尽管如此,摩根大通称,目前,云顶马来西亚也正在参与索利赫尔(Solihull)的另一个大型赌场执照,该竞标是与NEC联手竞投。

摩根大通相信,随着纽汉姆大型赌场执照已颁发,预计将加速索利赫尔大型赌场执照的决定。

除了英国,云顶马来西亚也正如火如荼兴建阿达老虎机式赛马赌场(Aqueduct Racino),预计将在今年下半年开幕。

摩根大通指出,云顶马来西亚的阿达老虎机式赛马赌场,将为该集团奠定基础,为未来扩展美国业务带来更多的机会。

为此,该券商维持云顶马来西亚的“增持”评级。


Source/转贴/Extract/: 南洋商报
Publish date:18/03/11

Update on Pacific Shipping Trust’s financing for recent acquisitions (DMG)

Pacific Shipping Trust: Update on Pacific Shipping Trust’s financing for recent acquisitions (SGXNET)

The news: Pacific Shipping Trust (PST) has secured bilateral financing commitments for a total of US$132m from OCBC, Standard Chartered Bank and ING Bank to fund its purchase, announced on 26 Nov 2010, of five new 57k DWT Supramax Bulk Carriers. These new vessels have been time-chartered to Glovis Co Ltd, Korea for periods of eight and 10 years respectively.

Our thoughts: The latest bank lending has come on the back of the bilateral loans of US$150m granted by DBS, Maybank, and Bangkok Bank in Nov 2010. Including the latest loan, PST has been boosted with US$282m of loan to finance acquisitions of vessels. As a result, PST does not need to raise new equity for the immediate future. The latest lending proves that banks are now more willing to lend money to shipping trusts, which require continuous funding to grow its fleet size. Hence, the latest piece of news is positive for shipping trusts in general as their acquisition war chests will be boosted. We do not have rating on PST currently which is trading at 7.4x Bloomberg consensus FY11 EV/EBITDA. This is in-line with First Ship Lease Trust’s 7.3x and a premium to Rickmer Maritime Trust’s 6.3x.

Source/转贴/Extract/: DMG
Publish date:18/03/11

Hutchison Port Trust falls on debut after biggest IPO this year

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust fell on its trading debut following the world’s largest initial public offering this year, as investors sold units priced before an earthquake in Japan roiled Asian markets.

The container-terminal owner, backed by billionaire Li Ka- shing, dropped 5.9% to close at 95 cents. Units were sold at $1.01 in the US$5.5 billion ($7 billion) IPO, which was priced on March 11, the day of the temblor.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was set for its biggest weekly drop since May as investors offloaded stocks on concerns electricity shortages and radiation leaks from a crippled nuclear-power plant may disrupt production in Japan. HPH Trust owns container terminals in Hong Kong and neighboring Shenzhen.

“Given the weak market sentiment, I’m not surprised at the performance,” said Ng Soo Nam, a Singapore-based chief investment officer at Nikko Asset Management Co., which oversaw US$126 billion in assets globally as of Dec. 31. “It will eventually rebound as Hutchison Port generates solid cash flow.”

Nikko Asset bought some Hutchison Port units in the IPO, Ng said, without elaboration. The trust sold about 5.4 billion units in the offering. The price range was initially set at 91 cents to US$1.08 before being narrowed to 99 cents to US$1.03, according to term sheets.

EXCELLENT’
“Considering the situation, I think it’s excellent,” trust Chairman Canning Fok said about the price movement at a listing ceremony in Singapore. The earthquake’s “impact is minimal” on the trust’s assets, he said.

The trust’s terminals handled a record 21.2 million 20-foot containers last year, 17% more than in 2009. The trust has room to develop 12 more berths in Shenzhen’s deepwater Yantian port, with the first three expected to be completed by 2015, Ivor Chow, chief financial officer of the trust’s manager, said at a Singapore press briefing last week.

Cornerstone investors including Capital Research & Management Co., Paulson & Co. and Singapore’s Temasek Holdings Pte invested US$1.62 billion in the trust’s IPO, according to the prospectus filed with the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Group Holdings, Deutsche Bank AG and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. managed the sale.

“This sell-off should be temporary,” said Wong Sui Jau, general manager of Fundsupermart, the online division of IFAST Financial Pte, which manages US$2.8 billion. “The sell-off has made it more attractive considering that the fundamentals haven’t changed much.”

WORLD’S BUSIEST
Hong Kong and Shenzhen, in China’s Pearl River Delta, form the world’s busiest container market, Hong Kong-based Hutchison Whampoa said in a Jan. 18 statement. Hutchison Whampoa, controlled by billionaire Li, kept about 25% of the trust and will manage it.

Hutchison Whampoa rose 0.1% to HK$84.85 ($13.89) in Hong Kong. It’s dropped 8.5% since March 10, the last full day of trading before the earthquake.

The company, the world’s largest container-terminal operator, also invests in drug stores, real estate and mobile- phone services.




Source/转贴/Extract/: www.theedgesingapore.com
Publish date:18/03/11

Macro data, Earnings, Yield curves still signal a continued bull-run

Summary:
− Macro data, Earnings, Yield curves, continues to signal recovery and a bull market continuance though we know its hard for investors to concentrate on this while Japan
battles a possible, though unlikely, nuclear meltdown. In our humble opinion, if we were to bet on an outcome, it would be that radiation catastrophe would be averted, in which case markets have presented a significant buying opportunity. Top picks now include DBS, Wilmar, in addition to our previous picks Noble, SembMarine, KeppelCorp, SembCorp Ind.

• As it stands, the situation in Japan seems highly fluid, with helicopters doing water bomb runs on the fuel rods, water canon trucks used for riot control stand at the ready, while workers struggle to get power supply going at the reactors to operate its cooling system. It all sounds a bit desperate when you have water bombs and canons. One wonders if we are getting the whole picture.

• Key thing is the plants are shut down and the only thing left is to neutralize the residual heat in the spent fuel rods, failing which, it will react with moisture in the air, releasing radioactive material which the winds will carry. This is the crucial difference with Chernobyl, in the Russian incident the reactor was not shut down, the ones in Japan are. So long as water is continuously poured on the rods, the danger should recede with time, this much seems to be what the experts are saying.

• It sounds doable, so if you believe this meltdown is containable, you have been presented a buying opportunity. If not, all bets are off. Japan though not a centre of demand, is a major centre of supply for intermediate and capital goods in the global electronics supply chain. So you can imagine how many industries would be affected. We have doubts the world economy would be able to withstand that kind of outcome. But if we had to pick which outcome to bet on, we lean towards containment.

• Other than that, we would like to remind clients that US economic data continues to be robust across the board, with the exception of housing . But coming off a housing bubble, we would not expect that sector to do anything but grind through its supply overhang. We can’t reasonably expect housing to lead recovery with excess inventory outstanding. Right now, services and manufacturing are charging ahead. Normally we would expect manufacturing to start tapering off at this stage of the economic cycle with services taking up the slack, but we have had good PMI readings from both sectors . Unemployment claims are also on a clear downtrend, despite week to week gyrations. The US economy cannot ask for anything better. Yield curve spreads have receded a little to reflect the danger in Japan (not to mention Middle East) but remain in territory that signals the bull market is not over yet.

• Here in Singapore, STI earnings have by and large been in line with expectations, on a full year basis having expanded 30%y-y for 2010. In gauging earnings momentum and valuations, we have decided to normalize STI earnings, removing effects from write-downs (DBS) and write-ups (GAR, CMT, HKL, Jardines) which have proved to be significantly distortionary, especially in the 3Q and 4Q10 results just released. Un-normalized, takes P/E down to 10.5x, which would have been a steal, except normalized actually shows that the STI is trading about 13.5x recurring earnings.

• We had written on Strategy 15th Dec10 that we thought we had started the 2nd leg of the bull market sometime in 3Q10. We have reason to believe we may have only just begun the 2nd leg, just coming off the 1st leg. Focusing on the purple boxes in Fig.8, which is the first leg of the bull market when P/E de-rates as EPS rebounds faster than price (as investors are still pessimistic or skeptical about the earnings/economic resilience); we find that P/E at present is still de-rating, evidenced by the fact that P/E has fallen from about 19x to 13.5x. On recurring earnings, EPS forecasts from PSR equity analysts are now projected to rise 17%y-y for 2011. Working backwards from that, we think the imminent T4Q EPS (2Q10 – 1Q11), would give enough earnings to de-rate P/E further down to 12.9x sometime in Apr11 when reporting begins again, and we think that P/E will bottom out from there and begin to rise. As we have written before, the mid-cycle of a bull-run is mainly about moderate earnings growth with price largely driven by P/E expansion (as investors get more comfortable with the idea of growth, they pay more for perceived resilience). On our 17%y-y EPS forecast, we still may see 3650 by year end on P/E expansion to 14.2x, which is a modest 10% premium over 12.9x (previous cycle saw P/E expand a full 43% from the bottoming out point), thus giving us some room for EPS disappointment. So our outlook remains positive and unchanged, for the STI to reach 3650 by 4Q11. Unless the nuclear meltdown in Japan cannot be contained, it’s still a buy on dips market, we believe.

• Top picks are not much changed from Noble, Keppel Corp, SembMarine and SembCorp Industries. We remain long term positive on SATS despite underperformance. New additions are now DBS and Wilmar. DBS at 1.2x Book is already a steal, and an improving US economy is just bringing closer the possibility of a rate hike, which would have a marvelous effect on its NIM as its loan book is leveraged to the industry’s cheapest funding base. Wilmar, is now trading at about 15x FY11 EPS. With food prices coming off as they are, we are betting that not before long, those price controls in China will be lifted, which means its likely Wilmar’s dismal earnings run is close to bottoming out.

Source/转贴/Extract/: Phillip Securities Research
Publish date:18/03/11

Interest rate hike on the cards as inflation risks grow

Commentary by Anna Taing, On Friday 18 March 2011, 13:30

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) is turning more hawkish in its monetary stance, going by its policy statement issued last Friday. In all likelihood, a rate hike is on the cards when the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets again in May.

Last Friday, the central bank kept the benchmark Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) unchanged at 2.75% but as expected, raised the Statutory Reserve Requirement (SRR) of banks from 1% to 2%. The SRR was reduced to 1% from 4% in 2008 as part of measures to mitigate the impact of the global recession.

The SRR is a portion of the eligible liabilities (EL) of financial institutions that must be kept in the statutory reserve account with the central bank.

BNM's rhetoric post the March 11 MPC meeting indicated that while growth is still a priority, its focus is shifting to the rising inflationary pressures.

“There are some incipient signs that domestic demand factors could result in possible upward pressure on prices in the latter part of the year, in line with the sustained expansion of economic activity,” BNM said after its MPC meeting.

The central bank stressed that while the stance of monetary policy will remain supportive of growth, the degree of monetary accommodation may be reviewed given the sustained growth in the economy and growing risks to inflation.

Inflation is on the rise and is fast becoming a global phenomenon that has sparked concern that the next threat to global economic recovery is stagflation.

Central banks in the region have started to step up the fight against inflation by raising interest rates. The latest rate hikes came from Thailand and South Korea.

In January, Malaysia's consumer price index (CPI), the inflation barometer, climbed higher to 2.4% from 2.2% in December, 2010. Given the continued rise in energy and commodity prices, the expectations are that inflation will continue to climb. Some economists opined that inflation could cross the 3% mark within the next two months if the price of crude oil continues to trade above US$100 (RM303) a barrel, as it has been doing since early this year since the outbreak if social and political unrest in the Middle East and North African (Mena) region, the main oil producing region.

Last Friday, in the wake of the earthquake in Japan, crude oil for April delivery fell below US$100 a barrel on expectations that Japan will cut imports.

Still, market observers said that price pressure will come more from supply disruptions as the political unrest in Mena escalates further.

It is likely that BNM will raise the OPR by 25 basis points to 3% when its MPC meets in May. By year-end, expectations are the OPR could be raised to 3.25%, while the SRR is expected to be increased to around 3%-4%.

With inflation on the rise, it is unlikely that the government will announce another round of fuel subsidy cuts in June after the two previous reductions last year — in July and December. Inflation hit a 26-year high of 7.7% in 2008 when fuel prices were raised by 40% in June that year.

Inflation is rising at a time when economic growth is slowing. The growth in January's industrial production index (IPI) fell to 1% from 4.2% last December and from a peak of 14.2% recorded in March last year. Exports have also fallen, growing at just 3% in January, from double-digit levels the previous year.

Malaysia's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 7.1% in 2010, but growth is expected to ease to between 5.5% and 6% this year. Growth is expected to pick up steam in the second half of the year provided that rising crude oil prices do not cause the global economy to tip into recession again.

Going forward, the central bank will have to walk a tightrope in monetary policy management. It will not want to tighten monetary policy too aggressively, as it could stifle growth further and neither can it be too accommodative, given that inflation has become a growing risk.


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, March 14, 2011.


Source/转贴/Extract/: Theedgemalaysia.com
Publish date:14/03/11

安永:全球不致二次衰退

2011/03/18 10:50:48 AM
●南洋商报

(北京17日讯)国际知名会计师事务所安永全球主席兼总执行长詹姆斯特黎周四指出,日本尽管遭受了地震、海啸、核泄漏三重打击,但经济不会因此而崩溃。

正在中国访问的特黎受访时说,尽管从短期来看,这次地震引发的灾难将对日本经济和对外贸易造成严重打击,尤其是对汽车、芯片等方面的全球供应产生一定影响,但日本经济不会就此崩溃,这也不会引发全球经济二次探底。

损失可快速弥补

他认为,核泄漏一旦得到控制,即将开展的灾后重建将带动基础设施建设行业并提高就业,因此,经济损失很快即可弥补。

当前世界很多国家和地区都出现了通胀势头,经济复苏相对乏力,同时也出现了油价高企、日本地震等负面因素。

对于世界经济是否会遭遇滞涨风险,特黎说,尽管当今世界经济走势仍面临复杂的风险和不确定因素,但仍将保持复苏势头,“滞涨”风险并不存在。

特黎介绍说,仍可用“LUV”这个词形容复苏过程,欧洲是“L”型复苏,复苏态势相对缓慢。

北美是“U”型复苏,现在已经开始复苏,未来将有较快增长;而新兴市场则是“V”型复苏,反弹势头更强。

Source/转贴/Extract/: 南洋商报
Publish date:18/03/11

资金分配遭削减43% 大马列不受欢迎市场

2011/03/18 10:50:56 AM
●南洋商报

(吉隆坡17日讯)大马继续成为全球新兴市场以及亚太基金经理最不受欢迎的市场之一,资金分配已遭削减43%。

根据美国银行美林3月份的一份报告,大马在2月份继续成为全球新兴市场中,第二最不受欢迎的市场,仅排在哥伦比亚之前;目前更与印度成为基金经理心目中最不受欢迎的市场之一。

美国银行美林指出,俄罗斯目前还是最受欢迎的市场之一,资金分配增加67%,而中国的资金分配则达自2009年6月以来最高点,增幅达43%。

报告表示,“最不受欢迎市场仍是大马(资金分配减少43%)、台湾(减少33%)及印度(减少29%)。”

保守缺乏刺激

这份报告也点出,亚太投资者已增加了分配在中国市场的资金,分配在中国和香港市场的资金分别提升31%和19%,新加坡和韩国评级则调降至“减持”。

“亚太投资者心目中最不受欢迎的市场,依然是印度(资金分配减低10%)以及大马(减低10%)。”

大马在区域基金经理的心目中,一向来都是保守且缺乏“刺激”的市场,流通性不高,而且被官联基金占据。

首相拿督斯里纳吉领导下的政府尝试为本地证券市场注入更多动力,这是将我国发展成高收入国的策略之一。


Source/转贴/Extract/: 南洋商报
Publish date:18/03/11

阿茲米:日強震衝擊未明朗‧航空業今年挑戰更大

Created 03/18/2011 - 11:52

(吉隆坡17日訊)馬航(MAS, 3786, 主板貿服組)董事經理東姑阿茲米透露,日本大地震增添2011年的航空業挑戰,儘管其衝擊不比冰島火山爆發般嚴重。

他表示,目前難以評估地震對公司盈利的衝擊,但將是2011年的挑戰之一,並將是拖累盈利下滑的其中一項因素。

阿茲米接受《路透社》訪問時說:“從航空業的角度,日本大地震衝擊或比歐洲的火山灰煙霾較輕,但我還是認為不可低估這災難。航班初步受一些影響,航班最終會恢復正常,但我們會監督局勢及輻射情況。”

分析員說,歐洲的火山爆發時,導致歐洲飛機停飛,航空業損失17億美元營收,但日本的地震似乎不會有相同的效應。

談衝擊仍言之過早

他說,地震仍然打擊投資者及旅客的士氣,進而間接影響馬航,但目前談衝擊仍然言之過早。

阿茲米說:“航空需求已不比當年強勁,歐洲仍然疲弱,美國正從低基礎水平復蘇。亞洲尚可,但隨著日本發生的災情,間接也造成不明確狀況。“中短期的需求還是一個疑問,加上偏高燃油價格仍然令人憂心。”

儘管2011年充滿挑戰,阿茲米說,他有信心馬航可以適當應對更強穩的未來。

馬航在2010財政年表現還算不俗,仍然取得凈利,超越市場預測的凈虧表現。其全年營運盈利比前一年高出3倍,達1億3千700萬令吉。

馬航與其他區域航空同步復蘇,惟目前油價及日本災難及中東的不穩局勢或對馬航的復蘇路構成威脅。馬航在2005曾蒙受13億令吉的虧損,經過2006年展開一項大刀闊斧的重組後恢復元氣。

馬航漸入佳境

阿茲米說,馬航在過去5年轉變重大,公司目前已入佳境。

“這項業務的危險性,是你可以消耗在短期得到的東西,但是我們還是要看中期和長期。我們已付出很大努力讓馬航重上軌道,並展開許多合理化與精簡成本結構。”

阿茲米強調以客戶滿意為主要重點,並需要擴大航班目的地和提昇機隊。

馬航預計今年會有4架波音737-800飛機送抵,預計還會有3架。4月份開始也交付6架新的A330空巴及2012年第二季度交付A380飛機。

新飛機開闢的新中程目標,包括亞庇至柏斯航線以及吉隆坡至昆明(中國)的航班。

馬航在2011年護盤25%的燃料需求,每桶為88美元,但75%燃油則需承擔市場價格波動的風險。

阿茲米說,馬航的前景主要由燃料價格決定,進而影響它在今年是否可擴充機隊產能。

阿茲米曾表示公司有意在2011年把機隊擴大。


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Source/转贴/Extract/: biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:18/03/11

股市回升 REITs纷找收购目标

(2011-03-18)

随着股市回升,房地产投资信托(REITs)纷纷开始寻找收购目标。去年,新加坡的投资信托(S-REITs)所作的收购,占了亚洲收购项目总值高达57%。

  世邦魏理仕(CBRE)最新数据显示,新加坡房地产投资信托去年的股价跟随大市,经历了12.4%的加权平均涨幅,推动了股息回报率(weighted average dividend yield)下滑,从上半年的6.95%减少到下半年的5.88%。

  去年,亚洲共迎来了14只新房地产投资信托的挂牌,把信托的总数增加到123只,总市值提高46.8%,报950亿美元。

  新加坡房地产投资信托的总市值,因两项大型房地产投资信托:丰树工业信托(Mapletree Industrial Trust,简称MIT)和胜宝工业信托(Sabana REIT)的挂牌上市,而增加了38.4%,达293亿美元。

更专注于新收购
  随着股价回升,房地产投资信托也更专注于新收购,加强资产组合,提升回报率。

  报告指出,亚洲房地产投资信托去年共进行了总值110亿美元的收购,较前年增长了三倍。当中,新加坡房地产投资信托的收购,占了总额的57%,使新加坡成为日本之后,亚洲第二大房地产投资信托市场。

  世邦魏理仕指出,由于投资者在金融危机时期往往要求更高的股息回报率,房地产投资信托为了避免摊薄收益率,而多不愿购买新资产。

  随着股市回弹以及租金水平的回升,情况有所改观,不少信托得以向银行贷款以进行收购。

报告显示,新加坡和日本房地产投资信托去年所作的收购,分别占了亚洲房地产投资信托市场总收购额的57%和33%。

  其中,新达信托(Suntec Reit)去年以15亿元从长江控股及和记黄埔买下滨海湾金融中心(MBFC)第一阶段项目的三分之一权益。 

  与此同时,雅诗阁公寓信托(Ascott Reit)和马来西亚的Al-Aqar KPJ信托也分别将眼光转往太平洋和欧洲地区,分散资产及收入来源。

  世邦魏理仕亚洲国际估价执行董事摩尔(Danny Mohr)说:“随着股息收益率被打压至接近(购买)实质资产的回报水平,市场也期望房地产投资信托更积极地寻找新收购目标。”

  摩尔指出,有鉴于亚洲市场的增长步伐超越其他市场,海外投资者正在募集资金以在亚洲市场进行投资,预计将进一步吸引资金流入亚洲房地产投资信托市场,加强后者今年的收购能力。



Source/转贴/Extract/: 《联合早报》
Publish date:18/03/11

瑞士信贷: 本地REITs 前景乐观

(2011-03-18)
瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)认为,新加坡的商场房地产投资信托(REITs)的前景乐观。

  除了调高茂商产信托(CMT)的评级,这家证券行也在刚刚发表的“新加坡商场REIT”报告中,对星狮地产信托(Frasers Centrepoint Trust)的投资潜能表示看好。

  瑞士信贷说,它看好商场租金将在蓬勃的经济增长下攀升。由于利率处于低位,2011年也应该会是商场REIT大肆“瞎拼”,四处收购其他商场的一年。

  “虽然许多顾问担心,郊外的商场供应将增加,从而为租金带来下跌压力,但是我们相信,地点优秀的郊外商场还是会保持兴旺,并因为人们的消费能力增加而受益。”

  瑞士信贷说,新建的商场面积大多介于25万至40万平方英尺,而且遍布在全岛各地,估计相当容易“消化”。

  它说,嘉茂商产信托原本是公司研究的新加坡REITs中,表现最差的一只REIT,过去6个月和9个月的股价表现落后于大市10%和12%。

  不过,它却在报告中,将嘉茂商产信托的评级由“中立(Neutral)”改为“表现优于大市(Outperform)”,并且将价格目标从2.10元调高至2.22元。这是因为从2012财年的5.6%收益率来看,其投资吸引力正渐渐改善,再加上接下来的购并计划和资产提升计划,因此有望激发这只REIT调高评级。

  瑞士信贷认为,嘉茂商产信托有可能在今年收购位于乌节心脏地带的ION购物中心。其他的目标,还可能包括嘉茂和嘉德置地在勿洛市镇中心联手发展的商住项目(预计2015年完工),以及嘉德置地和磐石制作公司(Rock Productions)在纬壹科技城联手发展的生活休闲中心(预计在2012年完工)。

  瑞士信贷也在这份报告书中,同样给予星狮地产信托“表现优于大市”评级,并且将它的目标价格从1.68元调高至1.90元。

它给予的原因是,星狮地产信托的郊外购物商场比重相当大,旗下四个主要资产分别是长堤坊(Causeway Point)、艾格坊(Anchor point)、纳福坊(Northpoint)和油池坊(Yew Tee Point)。

  它也看好,星狮地产信托可能在2011财年收购勿洛坊(Bedok Point)。至于长堤坊的资产提升计划,也有望带动股息收益率在工程完工后(预计为2012年12月)提升。

  瑞士信贷说:“虽然我们对零售业的强劲感到乐观,在新加坡REIT中,我们还是偏好办公楼和接待业REIT——K-REIT、嘉康信托(CCT)和城市发展酒店服务信托(CDL Hospitality Trusts)。”

Source/转贴/Extract/: 《联合早报》
Publish date:18/03/11

STI 2900 to 3050 over next 2 weeks (DBSV)

The region around the 2900 level for the STI is turning out to be a resilient near-term support level as it coincides quite closely with the -1 SD forecasted PE levels at 2880 based on FY11 and FY12 earnings. However, rebound upside over the next 1-2 weeks is capped near 3050.

Our prognosis is simple: Prior to the Japan earthquake last Friday, STI had started to turn down from 3110 on supply disruption uncertainties due to the unrests in Middle East. These concerns are still present with oil price underpinned by unrests in Bahrain and fighting in Libya. The sell-down in the market this week was triggered by the nuclear crisis in Japan and so naturally, developments in the Middle East took a back seat. But near 3100, a faster-than-normal ascent in oil price due to the Middle East unrests and concerns about inflation and margin compressions due to high commodity prices may return. The consequence of Japan’s earthquake should also shed some index points from 3100 in the near-term. Thus, it is likely that any respite in the near-term will not exceed the March 9 high of 3110. The area around 3050, which coincides with the 200-day exponential moving average becomes our guide for the near-term resistance level.


Source/转贴/Extract/: DBS Vickers Research
Publish date:18/03/11

In a year, Japan may be booming while world pays for quake

by THE GUARDIAN 04:46 AM Mar 18, 2011

In 1923, when a strong earthquake destroyed most of Tokyo, Japan suffered a crippling economic downturn that may have hastened the onset of military rule. Yet financial markets around the world barely shrugged.

Ninety years on, Japanese cash plays a crucial role in global bond and stock markets. Despite two decades of stagnant growth on home turf, Japan is the second-largest foreign owner of United States government securities, with nearly US$900 billion (S$1.15 trillion) of America's public debt. This time it could be the rest of the world that takes a financial hit, while the Japanese economy booms.

To understand how this could happen it is necessary to follow the Japanese money. Savings by individuals and money held by Japanese insurers and financial institutions amount to trillions of dollars in cash, much of which makes its way on to world securities markets. When natural disasters happen in Japan, individuals and companies need this cash to rebuild, and insurance companies need it for payouts.

Earthquake insurance is hard to get for most households in Japan, so much of the cost- estimated at US$100 billion- will have to come from a mountain of ordinary savings held in Japanese financial institutions, much of it invested overseas.

For anything that is insured, possibly amounting to between US$10 billion and US$15 billion - the situation is complicated. Japanese insurers will also have to sell overseas assets but they will be spared the full cost because they have reinsured a lot of their risk with overseas insurance firms, who in turn have reinsured it with other insurers.

This insurance trail is a global labyrinth. Japan's risk, it turns out, is the world's risk.

Sure enough, as US markets opened last Friday, the sell-off of Japanese-held treasuries began. Bond prices fell and yields rose, although analysts say the selling was offset by buying from investors fleeing debt problems in the euro zone and unrest in the Middle East. The yen was also sold off immediately after the earthquake - before investors realised that billions of dollars held by Japanese insurers and investors would have to be repatriated. Within a few hours the selling reversed itself and the yen strengthened sharply.

Japan's central bank said it would inject ¥15 trillion into the economy to stabilise markets but that did not stop the Nikkei index slumping 16 per cent earlier this week - the biggest two-day fall since the 1987 global stock market crash.

All of this was predictable. In 1991 I wrote a book, Sixty Seconds That Will Change the World, about the consequences of a major earthquake in the Tokyo area, and discovered that the rest of the world would come off far worse than Japan.

US treasuries would have to be sold to meet insurance claims and pay for rebuilding, resulting in falling bond prices and rising interest rates. The yen would then rise as these overseas savings were repatriated.

A model produced by the Tokai Bank in 1989 found that Japan, after experiencing severe short-term negative growth, would bounce back as the cash flowed home and the rebuilding began. It was the rest of the world, starved of this investment and hit with rising interest rates, that went into recession.

Qualitatively, the financial markets are already reacting exactly as predicted. But there are differences in quantitative terms.

The Tokai model was based on a major earthquake much closer to Japan's industrial heartland and a rebuilding cost of about US$1 trillion at 1990 values. And Japan was then a much more significant global creditor than it is today. Twenty years ago, it was the world's largest creditor nation and the top buyer of US bonds. Now it has lost that position to China.

Perhaps the biggest difference is the Tokyo government's fiscal position, awash in debt that amounts to two years' worth of GDP. It can ill-afford the generous injections it is making to stabilise markets and the spending that will be needed to restore infrastructure. If the model plays out as predicted, the sell-off in bonds will continue, and the yen could rise further. The immediate effect on the Japanese economy will likely be to turn an expected 0.3 per cent growth this quarter into negative growth, perhaps sending Japan back into recession.

But within a year the rebuilding effort will deliver strong GDP growth. Production of everything from cars to concrete will have to be ramped up to satisfy the expected demand.

Peter Hadfield is the author of Sixty Seconds That Will Change the World.

Source/转贴/Extract/: Today.com
Publish date:18/03/11

UPDATE ON PST’S FINANCING FOR RECENT ACQUISITIONS

PST Management Pte. Ltd. (“PSTM” or “Trustee-Manager”), the trustee-manager of Pacific Shipping Trust (“PST”), is pleased to announce that it has secured bilateral financing commitments for a total of US$132 million from Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited, Standard Chartered Bank and ING Bank N.V. to fund its purchase, announced on 26 November 2010, of five new 57,000 DWT Supramax Bulk Carriers. These new vessels have been time-chartered to Glovis Co., Ltd, Korea for periods of 8 and 10 years respectively.

Together with the bilateral loans of US$150 million granted by DBS Bank Ltd, Malayan Banking Berhad and Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited (also announced on 26 November 2010) to fund the purchases of two Capesize Bulk Carriers (chartered to Jiangsu Shagang Group Co., Ltd) and two Multi-Purpose Vessels (chartered to Xiamen Ocean Shipping Company), PST has obtained commitments for a total of US$282 million to finance the acquisition of its nine new vessels (the “Acquisitions”). These financing arrangements are a good reflection of the confidence of the banks in PST’s business model of chartering good quality vessels to financially strong counterparties on long-term charters.

The proceeds of these bank financings, together with the funds made available from PST’s existing cash retention programme and advances from Pacific International Lines (Private) Limited (PST’s majority unitholder), should make it unnecessary for PST to raise new equity for funding the Acquisitions in the immediate future.

Existing unitholders should benefit from these transactions when the contracted charter earnings come on-stream, raising total revenue by US$552 million to almost US$800 million, extending through 2023.


Source/转贴/Extract/: SGX announcement
Publish date:17/03/11

SaizenREIT: UPDATE ON IMPACT OF EARTHQUAKE IN JAPAN

Further to Saizen Real Estate Investment Trust’s (“Saizen REIT”) announcements made
between 11 March 2011 and 16 March 2011, the Board of Directors of Japan Residential
Assets Manager Limited, the manager of Saizen REIT (the “Manager”), would like to provide an update on the situation in Japan in respect of Saizen REIT’s properties.

To-date, 145 out of Saizen REIT’s 146 properties, representing 99.6% of Saizen REIT’s total investment property value1, have been reported by the property managers to be intact.

Update on properties in Sendai
The property managers have managed to view a further 3 properties in Sendai.

In the areas affected by the earthquake and tsunami, all 6 properties in Morioka and
Koriyama, and 21 out of 22 properties in Sendai have been viewed by the property
managers thus far, and preliminary reports have confirmed that these properties appear to have sustained only minor damage and to have remained intact. However, the full extent of damage can only be ascertained after more detailed assessments.

To-date, we have not received any reports of tenant casualties, and none of the properties viewed appear to have been vacated.

The remaining property yet to be viewed by the property manager due to transportation
contraints is Royal Hills Katagiri, belonging to the TK operator YK Shingen. It is valued at JPY 157.0 million (S$2.5 million2), and this represents 0.4% and 0.6% of Saizen REIT’s total investment property value and net asset value3 respectively. It contributes annual rental income4 of approximately JPY 16.0 million (S$0.3 million), or 0.4% of Saizen REIT’s annual rental income.

Risk relating to nuclear power plant
None of Saizen REIT’s properties are within the current evacuation zone surrounding the nuclear power plant at risk in Fukushima.

Source/转贴/Extract/: SGX announcement
Publish date:17/03/11

CPI大漲 歐元區下月料升息

布魯塞爾17日訊)歐元區2月的通脹率升高到28個月來最高水平,使歐洲央行下個月就展開一波升息循環的可能性大增。


歐盟統計局16日公佈,歐元區17國2月的消費者物價指數(CPI)比去年同期上漲2.4%,高於1月的2.3%,創下2008年10月以來最高水平,與3月1日公佈的初估值相同。

2月的CPI比1月上漲0.4%,高於1月的下跌0.7%。去除能源、食物、煙酒等項目的2月核心CPI按年上漲1.0%,按月則漲1.1%。物價攀升最多的項目是旅遊、住宿、取暖油、水果等。

通脹率成長超目標

資料顯示,能源價格持續推升通脹率,超越歐洲央行訂的2%中期目標。2月的能源價格比1月上漲0.9%,比去年2月則漲13.1%,為08年9月以來最大漲幅。

最新的通脹數字將升高外界對歐洲央行很快會升息的預期;歐元區基準利率從09年5月以來一直處於歷來最低的1%。

歐洲央行總裁特裡謝在3月3日上次決策會議後表示,4月7日的下次決策會議可能宣佈升息。

儘管日本強震和海嘯對商品價格和全球經濟造成衝擊,市場仍預期不會影響歐洲央行升息的決心。

法蘭克福BHF銀行經濟學家馬裡歐說:「歐元區通脹將保持在2%以上。日本的災情增加了不確定性,但我仍預期歐洲央行4月將提高利率。」


Source/转贴/Extract/: Oriental Daily
Publish date:18/03/11

Thursday, March 17, 2011

2011-0316-57金錢爆(散戶演台股災難片)
















Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:16/03/11

國民大會:火環帶連環地震 20110317

國民大會:火環帶連環地震(1/4)

國民大會:火環帶連環地震(2/4)

國民大會:火環帶連環地震(3/4)

國民大會:火環帶連環地震(4/4)

Source/转贴/Extract/:youtube
Publish date:17/03/11

2011-0315-57金錢爆(福島輻射外洩 亞股嚇壞)

57金錢爆(福島輻射外洩 亞股嚇壞)5-1


57金錢爆(福島輻射外洩 亞股嚇壞)5-2



57金錢爆(福島輻射外洩 亞股嚇壞)5-3



57金錢爆(福島輻射外洩 亞股嚇壞)5-4



57金錢爆(福島輻射外洩 亞股嚇壞)5-5



Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:15/03/11

SIA downgrade to HOLD (KE)

Event
We downgrade our recommendation on Singapore Airlines (SIA) to HOLD on the back of a plateau in loads, as well as the potential economic fallout from the situation in Japan.

While yields have been robust, we believe it is a matter of time before they will weaken as well. Our new target price for SIA is $14.40.

Our View
SIA recently reported February 2011 load factors that were below our expectations. Passenger load factors declined by 4.8 pts to 75.1%, mainly on the back of lower loads. While cargo had been surprisingly robust year-to-date, even this sector has shown signs of peaking.

Cargo load factors fell by 3.8%, as load growth was unable to match capacity.

In the wake of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, SIA has offered full refunds to passengers who had made bookings to Japan prior to the catastrophe. Demand for air travel to Japan is currently almost non-existent. As the crisis unfolds, even regional air travel has been affected, with local hotels in Singapore seeing cancellations.

Fears of a nuclear fallout are likely to affect travel sentiment to Japan for at least several months. If a full nuclear disaster were to play out, air travel in the entire Pacific Rim may be severely disrupted, not just to Japan, but to the whole of North Asia and North America as well.

Based on the run rate of loads and capacity for the 11 months to FY Mar11, and taking into account the above negative risk factors, SIA is unlikely to meet our original target assumptions.

Going forward, a global economic slowdown on the back of a protracted recovery by the Japanese economy is a real risk, and air travel has historically been adversely affected by this.

Action & Recommendation
Our FY Mar11 forecast is cut by 12% to $1,223.7m, while our forecasts for FY Mar12 and FY Mar13 are cut by a significantly higher 19% and 30%, respectively. Our new price target of $14.40 is pegged at 1.2x P/B, in line with the historical ex-growth valuation for the carrier. There is also further downside risk to SIA’s share price if the overall situation deteriorates further.

Source/转贴/Extract/: Kim Eng Research
Publish date:17/03/11

SIA: Operating Stats Feb ’10: Load Factor at Risk (NEUTRAL)-DMG

In view of the YTD RPK falling short of our estimates, discouraging load factor in the wake of the devastating earthquake in Japan and the on-going tension in the Middle East, we are shaving our FY11-12 earnings forecasts by 4.8%-17.5% upon revisiting our key assumptions. Following the earnings revision, we trim our TP by as much as 19% from SGD17.20 to SGD14.00, premised on 12x PE, and thus downgrade our recommendation to a NEUTRAL (from BUY).

Passenger numbers down. SIA’s RPK for the month of February was lower by 1% y-o-y, attributed to the smaller volume of low fare promotion traffic combined with the second hike in fuel surcharge in the same month, while m-o-m RPK fell sharply by 15%. It was the airline’s lowest RPK on record since April ’09. Combining the January and February traffic numbers to normalize the Chinese New Year effect, RPK was up by 1.1%, suggesting that demand remains buoyant but nonetheless, SIA’s YTD (based on its FYE March) RPK growth of 11m stood at 2.9%, below our earlier forecast of 4%. As a result this has forced us to review our forecast.

Passengers stay away from higher fuel surcharge. SIA’s passenger load factor was down by 4.8ppts and 3ppts y-o-y and m-o-m respectively to 75.1% as we suspect its recently added capacity on flights to Manchester, Tokyo as well Los Angeles (since last October) amid the higher fuel surcharge resulted in weaker take-up. SIA raised its fuel surcharge again this month, which we see as a deterrent to passengers, who will resort to cheaper and more affordable carriers, notably for long haul routes to America and Europe, judging from its low load factor. Furthermore, the recent unrest in the Middle East further exacerbated the decline in overall demand for passenger travel.

Cargo. Cargo continues to be on a downtrend as growth moderates to 3.6% y-o-y (-11% m-o-m) on slowing trade activities amid the Chinese New Lunar festivities. For the 11-month ended March, the YTD 8.4% growth of SIA’s cargo division was within our forecast of 8%, although the airline may see a sudden drop in shipments in March in view of the current situation in Japan.

Significant exposure to Japan. While airport operations at Narita have resumed with flights back on schedule, we see risks of tourism and travel demand (leisure or business) in Japan being crippled in the shorter term given the nuclear leakage and further after-shocks. SIA has high exposure in terms of its flight capacity since it flies to Japan almost on a daily basis to 4 routes (Nagoya, Osaka, Fukuoka and Narita), which may face the risk of poor load factors. We anticipated that SIA risks recording low load factors for 15%-18% of its total capacity.

Source/转贴/Extract/:DMG & Partners Research
Publish date:17/03/11

PORT of GOLD?

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust operates some of the world’s most efficient container terminals. But the tide of cargo traffic in southern China is shifting as industrialisation moves inland, and alternative transport links are being built. Is the trust a safe harbour for investors?

Zeng Derong gazes at rows of little colour-coded boxes that fill his computer screen. He is sitting in a control tower overlooking a yard where trucks are waiting in an endless line to receive their payload. Their destination is a stacking yard, where they will wait for the consignees to take them to various locations in Guangdong. Zeng has little time to talk, except to the crane operators and the truckers. “We have to focus on what we are doing,” he says, as he refreshes his screen.

Zeng is a “talker” at Yantian International Container Terminal (YICT), located on the eastern side of Shenzhen. His job is to coordinate and direct the loading and unloading of vessels. For him, the task at hand is to ensure that the 1,299 container boxes aboard a vessel owned by Mitsui OSK Lines that docked at 10.45am are unloaded smoothly.

He is making reasonably good time. It is only 1.30pm, and he has already whittled the number of boxes yet to be unloaded from the vessel down to 1,016. But Zeng is not letting anything distract him. There is always the risk of snags such as a box going missing or an undocumented box showing up, which could slow down the unloading process. In fact, Zeng does not plan to leave his post at all during his eight-hour shift, and certainly not without his crackling walkie-talkie. Even his lunch is brought to his desk from the staff canteen downstairs.

The single-minded drive of port workers such as Zeng helps make YICT and its sister port operator Hutchison International Terminal (HIT) in Hong Kong the most efficient in the world. Investors who have bought into Hutchison Port Holdings Trust, which is scheduled to list on the Mainboard on March 18, will be counting on Zeng and his colleagues to deliver their share of the trust’s dividends in the years ahead.

YICT and HIT are the core assets of the HPH Trust, a business trust backed by Hutchison Port Holdings, a unit of Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing’s Hutchison Whampoa. The IPO of HPH Trust is the largest that Singapore has ever seen, and dwarfs just about all recent offerings in Southeast Asia, bankers say. HPH Trust is selling up to 3.9 billion units priced at between 91 US cents and US$1.08 at its IPO.

In addition, it is selling US$1.62 billion ($2.1 billion) worth of shares to a group of corner-stone investors that include Temasek Holdings and US-based hedge fund Paulson & Co. All in, HPH Trust is set to raise as much as US$5.8 billion. By comparison, Petronas Chemicals Group, a unit of Malaysia’s national oil company, raised US$4.1 billion at its IPO last year. Reports on March 9 say the price band has been narrowed to between 99 US cents and US$1.03. The company declined to confirm the reports.

The listing of HPH Trust comes after more than a decade of rapid growth for Hutchison Whampoa’s ports business. In 1997, as Hong Kong’s sovereignty was returned to China, the general sentiment was that the former Brit-ish colony’s glory days were over. China was quickly developing ports closer to its emerging industrial centres, and the Asian financial crisis had scarred the whole region. In fact, growth at Hong Kong’s ports stalled for a few years.

Hong Kong soon reinvented itself, though.
It emphasised speed and efficiency, and turned itself into a formidable transhipment centre, where cargo is transferred from larger vessels to smaller ones that then fan out to smaller ports in the region. By 2003, Hong Kong’s ports were growing fast again. “Hong Kong has successfully transformed itself into an Asian and regional transhipment hub,” says Ivor Chow, chief financial officer (CFO) of the trustee-manager of HPH Trust and managing director of HIT.

In Hong Kong, Hutchison Port Holdings owned HIT as well as Cosco-HIT, a 50:50 joint venture with Cosco Pacific. Together, they control 14 of the 24 berths in Hong Kong, including 12 contiguous terminals that make HIT the unbeatable leader in the transhipment business. Meanwhile, Hutchison Port Holdings also invested heavily in Yantian, which was a sleepy fishing village until 1994. Unlike its ports in Hong Kong, the Yantian facilities are not allowed to engage in transhipment. Nevertheless, Hutchison Port Holdings made it just as efficient.

According to the listing prospectus, YICT moves 32 container boxes per crane per hour. By comparison, HIT moves 31 boxes per crane per hour, and the Singapore port moves only 27 boxes per crane per hour. In China, the Ningbo port and the Shanghai port move 31 and 25 boxes per crane per hour respectively. What is the secret to YICT’s superior efficiency? According to its officials, it is a combination of investment in first-rate equipment such as tandem lifts that can move two 40ft container boxes at a time as well as well-trained staff and long-established relationships with customers.

“Some of our competitors also have tandem lifts. But they are not using as many, as fast and as effectively as we do,” says Patrick Lam, YICT’s operations and human resources director. “YICT is the best port in China in terms of fast turnaround, system, people intelligence and equipment.” YICT claims to have moved 20,000 containers in a single day last year.

YICT is actually a joint venture with the Shenzhen government, with Hutchison Port Holdings owning controlling stakes in different segments of the facility. “Hutchison Whampoa very quickly developed high-quality capacity,” says Jonathan Beard, managing director of consulting firm GHK Hong Kong. With 16 of the 46 berths in Shenzhen, YICT now has a 47% share of the 18.2 million TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units) that Shenzhen handled in 2009. Shenzhen is the world’s fourth-largest container port, behind Hong Kong. Besides YICT, there are several terminals located to the west of Shenzhen, near the mouth of the Pearl River, which are owned by other port operators.

Now, HIT, HIT-Cosco and YICT have been folded into HPH Trust. The trust’s portfolio also includes three 50%-owned river ports that feed cargo to the container ports. All in, HPH Trust’s assets saw throughput of 18 million TEUs in 2009. That compares to total throughput of 39.2 million TEUs at Hong Kong and Shenzhen. Looking ahead, HPH Trust’s throughput is projected to be 22.8 million TEUs this year and 24.8 million TEUs next year. HPH Trust has promised to distribute all its profits to investors. Depending on the IPO price, it is projecting yields of between 5.5% and 6.5% for 2011, and between 6.1% and 7.2% for 2012.

CFO Chow says the impetus for growth in the next five to 10 years will come from imports, as China acts to rebalance its trade. “The trust is in a good position to take advantage of the growth because of the ports’ world-class facilities and long relationship with their customers,” he says.

Looking ahead, the plan is for HPH Trust to acquire more port assets being developed by its sponsor, Hutchison Port Holdings. The trust’s mandate is to invest only in deep-water container ports in Hong Kong and Guangdong. According to its prospectus, the sponsor has interests in port assets in Gaolan, Huizhou and Shantou. Gaolan is a deep-water port in Zhuhai but now operates predominantly as a general-cargo port. Huizhou is also a gener-al-cargo port being developed as a deep-water container port, and located on the eastern side of the Pearl River Delta.

Hutchison Port Holdings prefers to build its own ports, according to its officials. It has obtained approval to build three berths in YICT in an area called West Port, which will be completed in 2015. The Shenzhen government is also reclaiming land in an area called East Port that could accommodate nine more berths over the subsequent five to six years.

Chow says: “That is equivalent to buying four or five ports, so there is plenty of organic expansion for the trust.” In Hong Kong, efforts are underway to develop land behind the port terminals so that the storage yards could be moved back to make way for more loading and unloading facilities at the quayside. In the longer term, however, a lack of land in Hong Kong could force the port to give up some of its transhipment business in order to handle more direct import and export cargo, Chow says.

Hutchison Port Holdings also has port investments elsewhere in China  including Shanghai, Ningbo and Xiamen  and across the globe. In total, it owns 308 berths in 51 ports in 25 countries.

Shifting tide
The competition that Hutchison Port Holdings and its trust face in China has not let up, though. China is investing heavily in transport infrastructure in Guangdong and the Pearl River Delta, while continued industrialisation is extending its manufacturing base farther inland. That could shift the tide of container traffic and sideline ports owned by HPH Trust and its sponsor, according to some experts on Pearl River Delta development.

For starters, the development of land transport and waterway networks is improving access to ports in southern China from the interior. Already, it now costs US$300 less to ship a container from Guangzhou or Shenzhen to the US and Europe than from Hong Kong, says Zheng Tianxiang, a professor at Sun Yat-sen University, who has closely tracked developments in the Pearl River Delta. That gap could continue to widen over time. Zheng notes that the Beijing-Guangzhou high-speed rail will be completed by year-end, freeing the existing trunk line for cargo use. “We are looking at 50 million tonnes of additional cargo at least.” At the same time, Zheng says Xijiang, a tributary of Pearl River, is being deepened so that 1,000-tonne vessels can sail all the way to Guangxi province and 500-tonne vessels to Yunnan province, creating another channel for cargo to reach the main ports on the coast. “This will add 100 million tonnes of cargo,” he says.

This is bad news for HPH Trust’s facilities in Hong Kong, but neither is it great news for the trust’s operations at Yantian. That is because ports in Guangzhou located to the northwest are nearer to these growing sources of cargo. Indeed, Guangzhou has spent billions of renminbi to dredge a 15.5m channel that is deep enough for ships of up to 100,000 deadweight tonnes to call at Nansha, an island in the Pearl River. To attract shippers, Nansha is aggressively undercutting more developed ports located downriver and in Shenzhen, says GHK Hong Kong’s Beard, adding: “Nansha is buying cargo.”

Now, dredging works are getting underway to further deepen the approach channel to Nansha to 17m, which will make it possible for Danish shipping line AP Moller-Maersk’s Triple-E vessels to sail through. Maersk an-nounced on Feb 21 that it had ordered 10 mega vessels that can carry 18,000 TEUs for delivery in 2013, with an option for another 20 to service Asia and Europe.

Bjarne Foldager, Maersk Line country manager for Malaysia and Singapore, tells The Edge Singapore that the Triple-E vessels are designed to call at the largest ports in Asia and Europe. The port rotation has not been decided yet, he says, but examples of the likely Asian ports of call include Shanghai, Ningbo, Xiamen, Yantian, Hong Kong and Tanjung Pelepas. “We will of course work with ports, such as the Singapore port, to ensure a range of ports has the capabilities to handle these vessels,” he says.

Maersk’s largest vessel, the Emma Maersk, calls only at Yantian, Hong Kong, Xiamen, Ningbo, Shanghai and Tanjung Pelepas in Asia, according to its sailing schedule.Apart from Guangzhou, there are other ports in the Pearl River estuary that compete with YICT, including Dachan Bay Terminal, which is operated by Modern Terminals; and Chiwan Container Terminal and Shekou Container Terminal, which are jointly operated by Modern Terminals and China Merchants Holdings. Sun Yat-sen University’s

Zheng says Hutchison Port Holdings was invited to invest in Guangzhou’s Xinsha terminal when development began 10 years ago. It was made clear, however, that Hutchison Port Holdings would only be a minority investor, with the Guangzhou government holding the majority interest.

Hutchison Port Holdings turned down the offer and chose instead to gain exposure to the west of Shenzhen by working with the city of Zhuhai and invest in the Gaolan port.

But, Zheng says that, with only two 50,000-tonnage terminals, that port is too small now to attract the major shipping lines. Two years ago, Hutchison Port Holdings applied for approval to build five more berths, but has yet to receive the green light. “The attention is focused on developing Nansha; and, until Nansha is big enough, it is unlikely that Hutchison will get approval to expand Gaolan,” Zheng says.

In the meantime, the cargo traffic dynamics in the region are changing. Zheng says labour-intensive industries are shrinking in Guangdong and not producing as much container cargo as before. Guangdong has been focusing on moving up the value chain and is now making cars and aircraft parts that do not fit into container boxes. And, as industries migrate inland, cargo is increasingly be ng moved eastwards and shipped out from Shanghai as well as southwards to be shipped from ports in Guangdong. “They will still ship through Guangdong unless they migrate closer to Shanghai,” says Zheng.

Transport industry watchers such as Zheng and Beard think that, over time, the Pearl River Delta’s mature port cluster will be upstaged by ports in Shanghai, Tianjin and other ports towards the northeast. In particular, Shanghai has a big hinterland and strong central government backing. It is also quickly securing a leadership role for itself by buying stakes in river ports to ensure they feed traffic to its container port. So, where does all this leave Hutchison Port Holdings and its trust? “Hutchison missed the opportunity to be the leader in the Pearl River Delta,” says Zheng. “They are now losing out to Shanghai.”

Best years have passed
To e sure, the challenges that Hutchison Port Holdings and its trust face today are not of its own making. In fact, the group might well have sidestepped bigger problems by staying cautious on its investments in Guangzhou. Besides failing to secure a controlling interest in a port, it would have faced competition from a proliferation of facilities in the region now.

In addition, with politics a major determining factor in the success of one port over another, Hutchison Port Holdings would have been treading on dangerous ground. GHK Hong Kong’s Beard figures that there is already 10 million TEUs to 15 million TEUs of spare capacity, as a result of aggressive investment in southern Chinese ports. “South China has seen one of the most rapid expansions. You have moved from a situation in which, 15 or 16 years ago, Hong Kong was the only show in town to one where you have a crowded marketplace,” he says.

Besides, the development of transport infrastructure is enabling HPH Trust’s Yantian port to reach deeper inland for cargo. HPH Trust’s Chow says the highway and railway grids that are being expanded and improved on will feed cargo to YICT. Currently, 90% of YICT’s container volume comes via highways and the rest are brought in by rail. YICT has its own dedicated on-dock railway line, a 25km track that links the terminal to the national grid, which goes all the way to Hunan and Jiangxi. China is now developing its land transport infrastructure so that more cargo can be carried by rail, Chow says, adding: “It is now cheaper to sail down the shallow and congested Yangtze River to Shanghai, but it takes seven days. Cargo carried by rail takes only two days, but is more expensive.”

Zharlen Zhang, an analyst who covers ports at KGI Securities, says YICT will probably be able to hold its own against ports in Guangzhou, despite being located farther away from the source of the cargo. “The distance is not significant because these goods have travelled thousands of kilometres,” he says. “Transportation costs to Yantian will be higher, but not much higher.” Moreover, Hutchison Port Holdings has a reputation for fast, door-to-door service, he adds.

Beard agrees that Hutchison Port Holdings is “extremely good” at what it does, but warns that the best years of growth for its ports might now have passed. Much ultimately depends on which ports the shippers decide to use- as cargo traffic flows change over time, he adds. “I won’t invest long term unless I know what their key customers are doing,” he says, referring to HPH Trust. Worryingly, APM Terminal, the port arm of AP Moller-Maersk, one of the Hutchison ports’ top three customers, bought a 20% stake in Phase 2 of Guangzhou’s Nansha port in 2006. Last year, it sold a 13.74% stake in Sigma Enterprises, an investment vehicle that holds controlling stakes in the Yan-tian terminals, to Cosco Pacific.

So, is HPH Trust a safe harbour for investors? Or does its high yield mask rough seas ahead? Does it really have an edge over competitors emerging in China?

Total package
Hai Chi Yuet, CEO of the trustee-manager of HPH Trust, has firsthand experience of just about every aspect of the ports business. The slender and gutsy 56-year-old, who is also managing director of YICT, has operated the controls of a quay crane in a swaying cabin 45m above the ground and sailed on a container ship from Hong Kong to Taiwan. More importantly, she has spent years forging relationships with shippers and owners of cargo that flows through the group’s ports, and quickly responding to their changing needs.

When IT giant Foxconn International Holdings, a long-time and major customer of YICT, expanded westwards to cities such as Chongqing and Wuhan, YICT was able to work with the company to make it possible to ship the additional freight to Shenzhen, says Hai.

“We have been working with Foxconn for years. We knew two years ago that they were moving north and we started working with them. We worked with the Shenzhen government to standardise customs regulations with Chongqing and Wuhan so that Foxconn could continue to ship their goods out of Shenzhen,” she says.

YICT managed to persuade customs to halve the amount of red tape for Foxconn and also offered to provide warehousing for its client in Shenzhen. “So, they promised to continue using Shenzhen instead of the eastern ports,” says Hai, who has worked for 29 years at several Hutchison Whampoa group companies.

Hai is also neither fazed by all the talk of port development in the west of Shenzhen nor daunted by the Guangzhou ports’ proximity to the source of cargo. She notes that China Shipping Group, which has a substantial stake in one of the western ports, still uses YICT because their 14,000-TEU vessels cannot sail up the Pearl River.

Officials at Hutchison Port Holdings also dispute the claim that the dredging works have enabled vessels of 100,000 deadweight tonnes to sail up the river now. They say that is only possible when the tide is high and the vessels are not fully loaded. Besides, there are numerous restrictions related to sailing through the river mouth. By contrast, ships can call at YICT around the clock. “There are no other ports in Shenzhen that they can call at now,” says CFO Chow, referring to the largest container vessels.

Hai is also confident that, even after more dredging work has been done along the Pearl River and more railways and highways have been built around Guangdong, YICT will continue to thrive because of the high efficiency of its operations. “They are digging, but it’s not just the depth; it’s not just the railways. It’s the entire package,” she says.

For now, at least, it looks like the aggressive canvassing of customers by executives such as Hai and the relentless focus of port coordinators and workers like Zeng could keep the key port assets in HPH Trust busy and profitable enough to satisfy investors.


Source/转贴/Extract/: Theedgeweekly Singapore 14.03.11
Publish date:14/03/11
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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