Saturday, February 19, 2011

Tiger Airways Share placement by Ryanasia (CIMB)

Tiger Airways Holdings
UNDERPERFORM Maintained
Limited S$1.58 Target: S$1.64
Share placement by Ryanasia

Overhang from Ryanasia’s placement
Maintain Underperform and target price of S$1.64, based on 8x CY12 P/E, in line with the industry’s historical 4-year mid-cycle forward average. Ryanasia, one of Tiger’s founding shareholders, has placed out 18.6m shares at S$1.58 apiece, or a 4.8% discount to Tiger’s last closing price of S$1.66. We believe Tiger’s lackluster share-price performance in recent months might have triggered the placement. We keep our earnings estimates and target price of S$1.64 intact. Maintain Underperform in view of operational risks, with de-rating catalysts expected from unexpected spikes in fuel prices as well as unfavourable developments in its partnerships in Thailand and the Philippines.

The news
Second placement in six months. Ryanasia has placed out 18.6m shares to an unknown investor at S$1.58 apiece, or a 4.8% discount to yesterday’s close of S$1.66. Ryanasia previously sold 29.4m shares for S$1.90 each on 19 Aug 10, after the 6-month moratorium following Tiger’s IPO. This August sale had reduced Ryanasia’s holding in Tiger to 29m shares (5.41% stake), while the latest placement has further pared it down to 10.8m shares, for a 1.99% stake. Ryanasia raised around S$29m from this placement.

Comments
Ryanasia freeing up trapped value. We believe the placement could have been triggered by Tiger’s lacklustre share-price performance in recent months. Since our initiation of the stock with an Underperform rating, Tiger’s share price has continued to drift down. Ryanasia is the private equity arm of European budget carrier Ryanair, and was one of Tiger’s founding members in 2004. We believe Ryanasia could have taken the opportunity to free up capital trapped in Tiger in search of higher-yielding investments.

Don’t sweat on route changes in Australia. Separately, we are not surprised by Tiger’s recent Australian route suspension. We understand that some investors are concerned about Tiger’s route suspension to Darwin. In our view, this is no cause for concern as it is part of Tiger’s strategy to maintain a profitable route network. Tiger reviews its route portfolio constantly, and will redeploy capacity to higher-yielding routes. Management previously guided for a tough operating environment in Australia.

More concerned about fuel exposure. We are more concerned about Tiger’s exposure to jet fuel price fluctuations. Tiger has hedged around 35% of its fuel consumption up to 15 months forward, and intends to lower its fuel-hedging volumes in view of volatile fuel prices. In our view, Tiger's thin margins offer little protection to unfavourable swings in jet fuel prices.

No near-term catalysts. We do not foresee any near-term stock catalysts for Tiger. Though operating statistics were decent in January (+29% yoy), we believe mom growth would be flat in February and March, as the first quarter of the calendar year is typically Tiger’s weakest quarter, coupled with weak demand in Australia. In addition, there are uncertainties surrounding its Thai Airways joint venture and investigations into its Philippine partnership with SEAIR.

Valuation and recommendation
Maintain Underperform and target price of S$1.64, based on 8x CY12 EPS. We believe Tiger’s poor share-price performance in recent months might have led to Ryanasia’s latest share placement. No change to our earnings estimates. Potential de-rating catalysts are unexpected oil price spikes as well as unfavourable developments in its partnerships in Thailand and the Philippines.

Source/转贴/Extract/:CIMB Research
Publish date:18/02/11

CMA Operational performance eroded by higher costs (DBS)

CapitaMalls Asia Ltd
BUY S$1.92 STI : 3,082.83
Price Target : S$ 2.51 (Prev S$ 2.59)

Operational performance eroded by higher costs
• Results below our and market estimates
• Dragged by start-up costs in China
• Maintain Buy, TP S$2.51
Results below market and our expectations. CMA reported a 15% yoy drop in 4Q10 net profit to S$144m, bringing FY10 earnings to $422m (+9%). Stripping out the S$130m revaluation gain in FY10 (S$110m in 4Q10), net earnings in FY10 would have been S$292m, up 39% yoy. The higher earnings was due to greater fund management and project management fees in China as well as better income from ION Orchard but was partially offset by divestment of assets into CMMT, sale of Clarke Quay, lower profit recognition from Orchard Residences and one-off divestment gains.

Singapore on track, China dragged by start up costs. S’pore reported a 29% increase in NPI, thanks to better performance at ION Orchard while China’s 17% growth was below expectations due to start-up costs while Japan remained lackluster. There were 5 new malls completed in China in 2010, bringing total operational properties to 38 in China and 91 across the portfolio. NPI yield trended lower to 3.3% in Japan to 6.4% in Malaysia due to sharper appreciation of asset values upon revaluation. Looking ahead, we expect another 6 malls to be operational in 2011 (5 China, 1 India). This should underpin NPI growth performance in the coming year. In addition, the group expects to invest in another S$2bn of new projects as part of its plan to double the number of malls in China to 100 in 6 regions over 3-5 years. Balance sheet remains strong with a S$618m net cash position as at Dec10. In reviewing its forward expansion programme, it plans to embark on a concept of a fast track ‘3G’ mall model with better control over land cost and design through using a modular and standardized end-to-end approach for its developments. We believe this will take time to implement and the impact to be felt in the longer term.

Maintain Buy, S$2.51 TP. The investment case for CMA lies in its real estate niche in the pan Asian consumption growth story. In terms of valuation, the stock is trading at 1.28x P/Bk NAV. Our target price of S$2.51 is based on a 10% premium to RNAV of S$2.28. Key risk to our view remains a longer than expected operational ramp-up of its
malls and slow deployment of its balance sheet capacity into new investments

Source/转贴/Extract/:DBS Vickers Research
Publish date:18/02/11

CMA Poised For Growth in China (ocbc)

CapitaMalls Asia Ltd
Maintain BUY
Previous Rating: BUY
Current Price: S$1.92
Fair Value: S$2.15

4Q10 Earnings Mostly In Line; Poised For Growth in China
4Q10 earnings mostly in line: CapitaMalls Asia (CMA) reported a 4Q10 PATMI of $144m versus $167m for 4Q 09 – a 15.2% fall YoY. 4Q10 revenue also fell 16.5% YoY due to the divestment of three Malaysian malls to CMMT and Clarke Quay to CMT. A significant part of 4Q10 earnings came from revaluation gains of $110m, from which an estimated 64% was derived from Singapore with the bulk of the remainder from China. These results, adjusted for revaluation gains, were largely in line with our forecast. However, we note CMA's core earnings were generally below market's, which was likely looking for a stronger ramp-up in terms of portfolio maturing and stabilization. In addition, CMA only completed five malls in China instead of the six planned. CMA also announced a two-cent dividend for FY10, up from one cent the previous year.

Three key performance indicators. CMA's central role in the value chain is that of an asset incubator: it originates malls, enhances capital values by growing net property income (NPI) to stable optimal levels, and then recycles capital through divestments. Hence, we believe CMA's performance should be gauged by three key indicators. One - how much capital has CMA deployed? We like that CMA deployed close to $2bn (vs a $800m target) in FY2010 and expect it to achieve its S$2bn target in FY11. Two - how quickly and how much have CMA increased NPI, on a same-mall basis? In FY10, there were meaningful increases in NPI yields in CMA's portfolio across all markets, except for Japan. Three - how effective were CMA's capital recycling channels? We think the market is waiting for clarity in terms of capital recycling channels for CMA's mature Chinese malls. Positive developments related to this issue may be catalysts for share price upside, due to increased visibility for revaluations gains to be translated into hard cash gains.

Well thought-out plan for growth. CMA has set a target for 100 malls in China in 3-5 years and would focus on key cities such as Shanghai and Beijing, where CMA has developed significant presence. Management also expects to achieve faster NPI acceleration in the newer "3G" malls, which employ a standardized and modular approach to design and mall management. We like CMA's strategies for expansion – China is an arena that can provide the returns and scale for CMA's growth ambitions, and CMA also has a well thought-out approach for accelerating NPI growth and building competitive moats in key cities. With an increased exposure to Chinese retail property, CMA will be a proxy to China's long term consumption growth, which we believe is based on compelling fundamentals. In addition, we think CMA's share price is attractive based on current valuations and will appreciate as stronger expectations for earnings growth get priced in. We reiterate our previous BUY rating at a revised S$2.15 fair value (pegged at parity to RNAV).

Source/转贴/Extract/: OCBC Investment Research
Publish date:18/02/11

Sunway First contract of the year (Ecm)

Sunway Holdings
(RM2.23 SGW MK) Buy
Target Price: RM2.60

First contract of the year
· Upgrading of Ipoh airport
Sunway Holdings announced that their wholly-owned subsidiary, Sunway Construction Sdn Bhd, had yesterday received the letter of award from the Ministry of Transport, Malaysia for the proposed upgrading of Sultan Abdul Aziz Shah Airport in Ipoh, Perak for a contract sum of RM37.4m. Works are expected to start in March 2011 and be completed over a 72 week period.

· Stronger order book replenishment in 2011
This contract is Sunway Holding’s first contract secured in FY11, giving outstanding construction order book a small boost to RM2.6bn. Our annual order book replenishment assumption for FY11 is maintained at RM1.5bn. As one of the local construction players with a strong brand name, we think the group is poised to benefit from the impending roll out of contracts in 2011 both from remnant 9MP projects as well as the much touted MRT project. Furthermore, apart from the tunnelling portion, civil works for the MRT project will only be open to local contractors. The completion of the merger exercise with sister company Sunway City by 1HFY11 could also assist the group in participating in larger-scale projects. Total construction tender book remains at approximately RM16bn, including highway projects in India and Phase 2 of the Arzanah development in Abu Dhabi.

· Reiterate BUY
Sunway is our top BUY for the construction sector. This is premised on (1) strong earnings growth of 17.8% in FY11, (2) undemanding forward P/E valuation of 7.5x, (3) more landbank acquisition in the pipeline, and (4) strength in securing overseas construction contracts. Although our RNAV estimate stands at RM3.29, our target price is adjusted to reflect the offer price of RM2.60 in the proposed merger of the group with sister company Sunway City Bhd.

Source/转贴/Extract/:ECM Libra Capital
Publish date:18/02/11

Notion Camera to overtake HDD as key growth driver (ECM)

Notion VTEC
(RM2.12 NVB MK)Buy
Target Price: RM2.50
Camera to overtake HDD as key growth driver

· Non-HDD > HDD
We recently met Notion’s management and came away feeling more positive about the company’s outlook. Contrary to popular belief, it is less exposed to the sluggish HDD industry compared to other pure HDD players. This is due to the growing camera business that is expected to make up 56% and >60% of revenue in FY11 and FY12 respectively, up from 44% in FY10. In terms of profit contribution, the percentage composition is even higher due to the higher profit margins it enjoys.

· New growth driver - camera sub-assembly for Nikon
Notion recently secured a new camera sub-assembly job from Nikon. It will initially start to produce 5k pieces/month in April, which will gradually be ramped up to 30k pieces/month from October onwards. On a full-year basis, this job is estimated to enhance FY12 revenue and net profits by RM111m and RM10m respectively. This is significant as it represents 17.3% of our estimated FY12 net profits. Going forward, there are opportunities for Notion to garner more sub-assembly jobs from Nikon in the future, as 30k pieces/month represents only 10% of the total subassembly jobs done by Nikon’s Thailand plant currently, which could be outsourced to Notion eventually.

· Maiden contribution from aluminium ingot plant in May
Notion’s aluminium ingot plant in Ijok will start production in May. On a full-year basis, we estimate that this venture will enhance the group’s revenue and net profits by approximately RM25m and RM3.7m respectively. Revenue from this new venture is denominated entirely in Ringgit, thus helping to reduce the impact of adverse movements in exchange rates.

· Potential upside from tax exempt MSC status
Notion is currently applying for MSC status company, which if successful, will help save on RM8-10m of tax payments, boosting cash flows and net profits. Results of this application will be known in one month’s time.

· Upgrade to BUY
As we factor in earnings contribution from the new sub-assembly job for Nikon and the new aluminium ingot plant, we raise our earnings by 13.0%, 25.8% and 26.5% for FY11, FY12 and FY13 respectively. As a result, our target price rises to RM2.50, based on historical 5-year average P/E of 8.7x. We upgrade Notion from sell to a BUY. Dividend payment expected to remain at 20% payout, yielding 2.7% at current price.

Highlights
· Non-HDD > HDD
Notion is less exposed to the sluggish HDD industry compared to other pure HDD players. This is due to the growing camera business that is expected to make up 56% and >60% of revenue in FY11 and FY12 respectively, up from 44% in FY10. In terms of profit contribution, the percentage composition is even higher due to the higher profit margins enjoyed by the camera division, owing to lesser competition and lesser players.

· New growth driver from camera sub-assembly job with Nikon
Notion recently secured a new camera sub-assembly job (of 40 camera lens subcomponents) from its 9% strategic shareholder, Nikon. It will initially start to produce 5k pieces/month in April, which will be gradually ramped up to 30k pieces/month from October onwards. To complete this job, Notion will be extending the floor space of its Thailand plant from 25,000 sq. feet to 100,000 sq. feet. As it is a labour intensive job, Notion has recruited 500 staff, some of which are currently undergoing training with Nikon. On a full-year basis, we estimate this job will enhance the group’s FY12 revenue and net profits by approximately RM111m and RM10m respectively. This is significant as it represents 17.3% of our estimated FY12 net profits. Going forward, there are opportunities for Notion to garner more sub-assembly jobs from Nikon in the future, as 30k pieces/month represents only 10% of the total sub-assembly jobs done by Nikon’s Thailand plant currently, which could be outsourced to Notion.

· To see greater contribution from cam barrels in 2H
As Nikon is scheduled to come out with new camera models in 2H11, Notion will see its cam barrels business growing faster in 2H compared to 1H. Notion will be the immediate beneficiary of any new camera launches, as it supplies more than half of Nikon’s cam barrels.

· HDD 2.5” base plate still under-utilised owing to poor demand
Currently, Notion’s HDD 2.5” base plate has yet to break even, as the utilisation rate is only a low 20%, with a monthly production of 200k pieces. This is a reflection of the poor demand outlook of the HDD industry which has seen stiff competition from alternative substitutes like tablet PCs which uses solid state drive. However, starting from April, there could potentially be additional new orders from Samsung of 600k pieces/month. This will bring total production to 800k pieces/month, which would mean that the 2.5” base plate business could potentially start to break even. We, however, prefer to be conservative and have not factored this into our forecasts yet.

· Maiden contribution from aluminium ingot plant in May
Notion’s aluminium ingot plant in Kuala Selangor is targeted to start production in May. This is an aluminium recovery plant which converts aluminium scrap into aluminium ADC12 ingots via a smelting process. Just by using an energy-intensive smelting process, Notion can convert previously useless aluminium scrap into highly-demanded aluminium ingots. The initial investment is estimated at RM3m and the plant will have an maximum capacity of 800tons of ingots per month. On a full-year basis, assuming a conservative 50% utilisation rate, we estimate that this venture will enhance the group’s revenue and net profits by approximately RM25m and RM3.7m respectively. Revenue from this new venture is wholly denominated in Ringgit as its customers are local diecast players, thus helping the group to reduce the impact of any adverse movements in exchange rates.

· Turning free cash flow positive in FY11
Notion has guided for a FY11 capex of RM40m, which is substantially down from FY10’s RM110m. This would mean that the company will be free cash flow positive for FY11, as we have forecasted an EBITDA of RM89.4m for FY11. Balance sheet is strong, as we expect the company to be in net cash position this year.

· Potential upside from tax exempt MSC status
Notion is currently applying for MSC status company, which if successful, will help the company save on RM8-10m of tax payments annually, boosting cash flows and net profits. Results of this application will be known in one month’s time.

· Upgrading earnings to take into account new businesses
As we factor in earnings contribution from the new sub-assembly job for Nikon and the new aluminium ingot plant, we raise our earnings by 13.0%, 25.8% and 26.5% for FY11, FY12 and FY13 respectively. As a result, our target price rises to RM2.50, based on historical 5-year average P/E of 8.7x. We upgrade Notion from hold to a BUY. Dividend payment expected to remain at 20% payout, yielding 2.7% at current price.


Source/转贴/Extract/:ECM Libra Capital
Publish date:18/02/11

REITs yielded solid returns in 2010

Real estate investment trusts (REITs) are good investing alternatives for the more risk averse investors, particularly during periods of increased market volatility, with their higher than market average yields and defensive profiles. The listings of Sunway REIT and CapitaMalls Malaysia Trust (CMMT), two of the largest REITS in the country, last year have further turned the spotlight on the sector and boosted investor interest.

Total 15% gains from CMMT since listing
Investors in CMMT have fared quite well, making some 11% in capital gains based on the prevailing price of RM1.09 and the closing price of 98 sen per unit on its first day of listing. The trust recently went ex-entitlement for its maiden income distribution of 3.4 sen per unit. Including this latest income distribution, investor returns would total a pretty smart 15% — for a seven-month holding period.


CMMT is currently the second largest REIT listed on the local bourse, by total assets and market capitalisation. It is also among the more liquid of the locally listed REITs with a fairly large free float of about 58% of total units issued.

The trust is focused on the retail sector. Its three properties are the Gurney Plaza in Penang, 205 strata parcels within Sungei Wang Plaza (which is about 61.9% of the mall’s retail floor area plus car park) in the heart of Kuala Lumpur and The Mines in Selangor — valued at a collective RM2.14 billion with net lettable area (NLA) totalling almost 1.88 million square feet.



All three properties registered good occupancy rates last year, averaging 98.3%. Rental rates for tenancies renewed during this period, which accounted for roughly 22% of the portfolio’s total NLA, were some 4.9% higher, on average.

CMMT is in the midst of finalising the acquisition of the extension to Gurney Plaza for RM215 million, which will add some 135,000 sq ft of NLA to its area under management. The acquisition will be part financed by new units to be issued to raise RM167.1 million.

It comes as no surprise that
CMMT’s latest earnings results (for the period from July 14 to Dec 31, 2010) were pretty much in line with the forecasts made in its listing prospectus. A relatively high degree of earnings predictability is one of the key characteristics of REITs.

Revenue totalled RM94.6 million while distributable income stood at RM45.9 million. As per its stated intentions, CMMT paid out all its distributable income last year — equivalent to 3.4 sen per unit — and is expected to do the same for the current year.

Based on the income estimate of RM101.5 million, distribution should increase to about 7.46 sen per unit. This translates into a gross yield of 6.8% for unitholders at the prevailing price.

Whilst this is at the lower end of the range of yields expected from locally listed REITs, we suspect CMMT’s implied premium is attributable to its size as well as comparatively high liquidity and free float. Its net asset value stood at RM1.03 per unit at end-2010.



Potential re-rating for laggard Starhill
In fact, other than CMMT, unit price gains for most of the locally listed REITs have been fairly good over the past year — save for Starhill REIT, which is undergoing a restructuring exercise. As a result, the latter’s unit price lagged the sector.

The trust disposed of the shopping malls, Lot 10 and Starhill Gallery, last year and is currently finalising the acquisition of nine properties, including the Ritz-Carlton Hotel, Hilton Niseko and Pangkor Laut Resort, that will see it emerge as a focused hospitality REIT.

Starhill REIT is currently trading well below its net asset value (NAV) of RM1.16 per unit and could enjoy an upward re-rating upon completion of its restructuring exercise, expected by mid-2011. Meanwhile, the trust expects to maintain last year’s distribution of 6.49 sen per unit in the current financial year ending June 2011. That will give investors a yield of roughly 7.6%.



Quill Capita trading below NAV of RM1.28
Another REIT trust that has lagged the sector and could do well in catching up is Quill Capita. Its unit price has gained just 3% since the beginning of last year and is still trading below the NAV of RM1.28.

Quill Capita is focused primarily on commercial-industrial properties. At present, the trust has 10 properties in its portfolio — with net lettable area totalling more than 1.288 million sq ft — worth about RM810 million. The assets are located in Cyberjaya, Kuala Lumpur, Selangor and Penang and the majority of its tenants are MNC/foreign related companies. It has not made any new purchases over the past two years but remains on the lookout for yield accretive acquisitions.

Nonetheless, Quill Capita has managed to steadily raise its distribution over the past few years — from 6.46 sen in 2007 to 8.03 sen last year. Based on a similar payout, income distribution in the current year could total some 8.26 sen per unit. That will earn investors a yield of 7.6% at the prevailing price of RM1.08.



Note: This report is brought to you by Asia Analytica Sdn Bhd, a licensed investment adviser. Please exercise your own judgment or seek professional advice for your specific investment needs. We are not responsible for your investment decisions. Our shareholders, directors and employees may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, February 18, 2011.


Source/转贴/Extract/: www.theedgemalaysia.com
Publish date:18/02/11

Friday, February 18, 2011

估值低 本益比合理 马股今年上探1700点

2011/02/18 10:49:19 AM
●南洋商报
(吉隆坡17日讯)马股估值低于区域股市料吸引外资目光,加上本益比仍合理,富时隆综指今年或有潜力达1700点,2012年更可能进一步攀爬至1900点。

网上单位信托分销商Fundsupermart.com(FSM)研究经理黄展威表示,相对于历史平均16倍的本益比,富时隆综指目前的本益比处在14倍的合理水平,意味仍有10%至12%的增长空间。

黄展威今日出席FSM的一项媒体发布会时说:“与其他东协市场比较,如泰国和印尼,大马比较令人感兴趣。基本上,市场资金如今正流向所谓比较‘便宜’的市场,而大马正是其中之一。”

他补充,资金较有限的情况下,外资将会以便宜且良好的市场为目标;因此,市场可能出现外资在比较昂贵的市场(如印尼)套利后转投资大马市场情况。

“此外,令吉兑美元不断升值,而且预计会继续,也是吸引外资流入大马市场的原因。”

年内外资续流入

至于外资流入大马的趋势会维持多久,黄展威的答案是至少维持在今年内。

他说:“尽管其他东协国近期盘整,但我们未看见大马有大量外资流出,意味这里外资流入趋势相当强劲。”

“一般上,当其他东协国家出现净外资流入情况时,大马肯定无法幸免。但这一次大马却有不错的表现,有能力维持净流入。”

询及大马国内是否有利好时,黄展威表示,政府的经济转型计划(ETP)和各项发展计划,皆有助带动大马股市。

不过,他谨慎看待与政府发展计划有直接关系的基建股,他说:“比如说,参与道路兴建计划的基建公司能否真的从中获利,是令人无法确定的。”

“但间接参与这些发展计划的公司,如建筑原料相关公司,则相对将取得更多好处。”

新兴市场盈利料创高

在全球市场方面,黄展威认为新兴市场2011年将继续强劲增长,这区域的整体盈利预计于今年底创新纪录,进而带动区域股市表现。

FSM的2011年首选股市为台湾,首选领域则是科技。

黄展威说,尽管今年盈利预计比2007年高78.7%,但以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数如今仍低于2007年的高点。

截至去年12月2日,该指数的2011和2012年本益比预测分别是14.6倍和13.1倍,低于历史水平。

“科技公司拥有强劲的资产负债表,这领域具备庞大的现金和低债务。

“鉴于看好科技领域,我们也看好台湾市场,因台湾股市超过50%的股项属于科技股。”

他指出,由于属于出口导向和周期性市场,投资者常低估台湾增长潜力。

不过,继与中国签署经济合作架构协议(ECFA)后,台湾经济展望也转好。

印尼将大盘整

另一方面,过去2年表现最佳的印尼股市则是FSM最不看好的股市。

黄展威说:“印尼是我们分析股市中增长潜力最低的股市,2年内,印尼股市仅具备17.4%的增长潜力。”

他指出,印尼股市主要受外资流量带动,随着外资开始撤离和转投资估值较便宜的美国和欧洲股市,印尼股市最终会出现大盘整情况。

上半年或升息2次

通胀率趋涨之际,黄展威估计大马国家银行可能在今年上半年内,将隔夜政策利率上修1至2次。

“年内,我预计国行会升息1至3次,即总共调高50至75基点。尽管如此,一切还需要以美国政府的决策而定。如果美国联储局(FED)升息,整体环境将改变。”

他指出,食品价和油价上涨,今年内会持续对东协国家带来通胀压力,但他认为,由于国行之前已积极升息,通胀不会对我国造成很大的压力。

“相比之下,其他国家如中国和印度比较迟调高利率,我稍微怀疑它们升息能在控制通胀方面带来多大的效应。”

Source/转贴/Extract/: 南洋商报
Publish date:18/02/11

5交替站催化产业增值 捷运概念股成形看涨

2011/02/18 6:02:30 PM
●南洋商报
(吉隆坡18日讯)黄氏发展唯高达研究看好吉隆坡5个捷运交替站热点,并估计周围地价将增值11至35%,而在当地已拥有地库的产业公司将成为大赢家,“捷运概念股”俨然成型。

黄氏发展唯高达研究根据这5个捷运交替站的地点以及周边的地主,圈出5个受惠最大的产业公司,包括了杨忠礼置地(YTLLand,2577,主板产业股)、雪兰莪实业(SPB,1783,主板产业股)、国浩置地(Guoco,1503,主板产业股)、宝敦(Bolton,1538,主板产业股),及实达集团(SPSetia,8664,主板产业股)。

黄氏发展唯高达研究协理主任余美慧今日在媒体汇报会上表示,这5家房地产发展公司之所以被选为最大获利者,主要因为它们在捷运交替站附近持有大量的地库,而这些土地有高密度发展的潜能,因此拥有有最高的重估净资产值(Revalued Net Asset Value)。

此外,这些公司也有很强的股东做为后盾,加上稳固的资产负债表,因此,有能力游说把捷运站设在本身的产业发展计划里或附近。

经济效应2100亿

获得黄氏发展唯高达研究点名的5个捷运交替站热点,分别是隆坡城中城-武吉免登、吉隆坡中环广场、白沙罗城镇-白沙罗高原、吉隆坡生态城-谷中城,以及冼都。

余美慧指出,在未来几个月或几年,投资者必须注意并且设法参与这个“捷运投资主题”。

她说,总值高达430亿令吉的捷运计划,是大马有史以来推动的最大型基建发展。

假设根据3倍的乘数效应,捷运计划在未来10年将对我国经济带来高达2100亿令吉的经济贡献。

“捷运计划预计将会大幅改善在吉隆坡居住的舒适度和城市活力。”

此外,余美慧也认为,捷运系统将会改变吉隆坡产业领域的面貌,并且创造新的商机,例如时尚的都会生活、城市复兴、新的商业发展计划,以及周边城镇的发展。

“虽然捷运系统要到2016或2010年才可完成,不过,产业价格估计会预先攀升,因为发展商将会把交通联系改善以及捷运搭客流量偏高的因素考虑在内。”

或引发产业公司合并

黄氏发展唯高达研究认为,捷运系统计划预测将会引发更多产业公司的联营与合并,以便获得周边的策略地库。

“那些在捷运站附近没有地库的公司,应该会开始寻觅土地,以便攫取在捷运站附近发展产业计划的好处。因此,”

余美慧解释,捷运交替站附近土地和产业的价值增长幅度,会比一般捷运站来得高。

她说:“至于那些没有地库的发展商,若想要从捷运经济效益中分得一杯羹,就必须要加紧脚步。”

余美慧补充,捷运站附近地区的产业发展趋势,将会以商业和住宅型的综合发展项目为主。

Source/转贴/Extract/:南洋商报
Publish date:18/02/11

捷运交替站5区大增值 地价可飙35%产业看涨30%

2011/02/18 5:43:53 PM
●南洋商报
(吉隆坡18日讯)政府宣布总值430亿令吉的延长捷运系统,预计将令周遭地价增值高达35%,而产业价值行情也将走高30%。

黄氏发展唯高达研究点名5个设有交替站的地区,地价将大涨,成为房地产新亮点,包括隆坡城中城-武吉免登、吉隆坡中环广场、白沙罗城镇-白沙罗高原、吉隆坡生态城以及冼都。

该行指出,捷运系统所衍生出来的效益,包括周边土地增值及庞大经济效益,尤其遍布在吉隆坡市区捷运交替站附近的土地和产业,有望成为未来增值最劲的热点。

10年经济效益2100亿

政府在13日宣布,第一阶段的捷运延伸路线,连接双溪毛糯和加影路线的工程,全程长达51公里、设有35个站,当中包括5个交替站,覆盖约120万人口。

这项工程预计7月动工,估计2016年启用,而6年的建设工程将制造13万个就业机会。

黄氏星展唯高达研究协理主任余美慧今日在一项媒体发布上说,这项计划未来10年可带来约2100亿令吉经济效益,或国民收入(GNI),而在捷运交替站周遭的产业或地主,将是受惠最大的一群。

3区增长空间最强劲

“估计交替站周遭的土价,会增长11%至35%,而根据国外的产业价格数据,捷运交替站附近的产业,也可享有高达20至30%的产业价格增长。”

在被点名的5个热点中,余美慧表示,当中又以冼都、白沙罗城镇及吉隆坡生态城这3个吉隆坡市中心周边新兴地区,拥有最为强劲增长空间。

余美慧解释,吉隆坡市中心如隆坡城中城-武吉免登和吉隆坡中环广场这些已发展成熟地区,因为交通已高度连接,加上土地价值已高涨,所以增值潜能会比市中心周边的新兴地区来得逊色一些。

马来西亚陆路公共交通委员会(SPAD)总执行长莫哈末努卡玛,日前宣布有关计划时指出,政府已向香港捷运系统取经,并会仿效香港部分的运作方式,如一举发展铁道所经过的周边房产,刺激地区性房地产发展。

Source/转贴/Extract/: 南洋商报
Publish date:18/02/11

企業獲利健康‧經濟成長支撐‧馬股根基穩健

Created 02/18/2011 - 17:49

(吉隆坡18日訊)全球資金潮近期逆向駛回西方,導致馬股在國內機構基金獨撐下異常震盪,不過份析員認為國內經濟基本面仍無虞,企業獲利前景仍健康,配上經濟轉型計劃與私人界投資火力,料馬股中長線仍能順利樂觀轉強。

經過上週外資狂沽,本週賣盤稍平息,馬股稍收復失地,但主要靠本地基金支撐,根據大馬交易所資料顯示,本週三與週四外資超賣趨勢持續,兩天套利額近10億5千萬令吉,大幅超越買盤7億5千萬令吉,導致外資持股淨流出近3億令吉。

國內散戶情緒也轉謹慎,賣盤意願強於進場追捧;國內機構投資者仍戰力十足,兩天累積淨流入資金近3億5千萬令吉,填補外資流失的資金空間。

綜指回彈9點

馬股今日再回收部份失土,一度揚升12.59點至1521.15點,並以1517.56點作收,揚升9點。全週回揚23.04點,回收部份上週失地。

分析員認為,雖外圍波動趨平靜,外資賣盤預料會逐步平息,股市會回到基本面,大馬經濟預料保持強穩,陸續出爐的公司業績可維持良好,加上經濟轉型計劃持續開動,選舉課題,對馬股形成支撐。

公佈第四季和全年成長數據

國家銀行今日公佈去年第四季和全年經濟成長數據。

肯納格研究副研究主管陳建堯表示,雖然本週馬股暫時掃除節節下滑憂慮,惟並不代表下跌調整勢頭完成,預料短期內仍無法擺脫震盪調整格局,惟這與基本面並無相關。

內需及經濟成長料續走揚

“由於近期國內因素乏善可陳,不明朗的外圍消息將主導馬股走向,導致之前輪流炒作現象減少,投資者近期較偏向以守待攻的策略。”

不過,他認為目前內需力道仍強,通貨膨脹壓力也相對較低,加上馬幣匯率走穩及美國經濟復甦對電子股有利,預計在基本面及政府基金買盤加持下,仍可望支撐馬股今年表現。

“我看好今年消費者信心持續提高,料消費類股營收可望年增率10%。另外,高儲蓄率和潛在加薪潮都會激勵經濟復甦高於一定水準之上。若以目前政府預估今年經濟成長率5%至6%來看,料內需及經濟成長率將會進一步走揚。”

大馬評估機構經濟學家方秀玲表示,目前大馬經濟基本面非常強穩,加上有許多大型基建合約頒發,因此看好今年經濟成長約5.6%,這也足以支撐中長期股市購興。

區域呈現資金潮外流

“雖然國內外資金短期有流出現象,不過這仍屬正常,目前區域都呈現資金潮外流現象。這是因為海外資金是要套利調整,加上近期國內資金投資海外趨勢擴大關係。”

她認為,目前市場最關注的通膨問題仍不足脅。由於大馬去年通膨比較區域國家仍非常低,料僅有1.7%,今年在政府刪減津貼、原產品價格與進口食物價格走高因素計算在內後,料最高也只有上達3%,仍屬合理水平。

“外資近期擔心區域市場因通膨而祭出突發資金限制政策,因此匆忙撤退資金,惟這並不會在大馬上演,至少大馬扣除通膨或資產泡沫風險,整體經濟數據都強穩。”

她表示,由於美國去年第四季經濟數據有反彈,因此減輕全球經濟雙重衰退憂慮,間接讓大馬出口憂慮減緩。

“預料今年經濟成長來自廣泛領域,製造業料在亞洲間貿易支撐下可維持,包括中國、台灣與韓國表現堅挺。至於服務業今年料成長幅度更高,約6.8%,尤其在旅遊、金融與酒店業務成長前景持續明朗。”

方秀玲樂觀看待經濟轉型計劃,料這可帶動許多基建與建材股。同時,她也看好今年投資成長約10.7%,其中私人界投資料在15.1%,私人消費則在8%,料這些正面情緒最終都可流回股市,讓股市前景穩定。

馬股拉回提供佈局良機

方秀玲表示,近期外資賣超馬股導致跌勢重心落在種植股及金融股,使加權指數拉回幅度較大,但短線修正幅度已達滿足點,回檔為技術面修正,無礙多頭格局,反提供中長線佈局機會。

“儘管外資短線撤出亞洲,引發股市修正,但也紓緩馬幣升值壓力,加上大部份外銷廠商在去年第四季多已反應此波升值匯損影響,電子股匯損利空衝擊將淡化。”

中長線外資仍看好新興亞洲

她認為,由於全球基本面仍持續轉佳,資金面仍寬鬆,中長線外資仍看好新興亞洲,且大馬擁有政府轉型計劃豐富題材,一旦合約頒發正式發酵後,預期馬股在3至4月間仍有機會挑戰新高點。

就基本面來看,她表示之前市場擔心歐美經濟復甦疲弱,但近期數據顯示,美國經濟加速復甦、就業市場持續改善、物價溫和上漲,歐洲經濟回溫情況優於預期,加上歐美中行持續寬鬆貨幣政策以提昇消費,目前歐美股市相對持穩,有利國家外銷類股表現。

中國升息衝擊淡化

“至於經濟成長強勁的中國,雖然目前有CPI位於高檔導致政策緊縮疑慮,影響兩岸三地股市表現,且預料上半年中國人行升息抑通膨趨勢不會改變,但中國升息是短空長多,且在市場預期中,對資本市場衝擊會逐漸淡化,再加上若政策奏效通膨持續回落,緊縮政策亦會趨緩,有利馬股轉強。”

陳建堯表示,以技術面來看,隨著富時大馬綜指重新站上1530點關口,接下來阻力將落在1550點,1500點則是強力支持水平。

種植油氣建築基本面穩

投資策略是整體大市仍趨向波動,投資者宜延續趁高套利,並回歸種植、油氣和建築等基本面良好股項。

“目前馬股本益比水平是16倍,惟仍低於過去5年平均本益比17倍。預料今年整個市場表現都不錯,包括油氣、金融與種植業,只有電力業表現較黯淡。”

大選會進一步刺激馬股

他表示,馬股拉回提供一個好買點,待近期馬股修正完以後,第一季馬股將變得更具吸引力,料全年高點預估落在第四季,指數目標1650點。

“另外,若今年有大選,將會有許多大選糖果派發,會進一步刺激股市。”

他建議投資者持股應包含建築股及電子股。

目前選股原則應該以“淨值、獲利與股利”等3大基本面要素,以及市場投資氣氛、市場成長動能轉折點及個股評價。


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Source/转贴/Extract/: biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:18/02/11

LMIR Trust: FY10 results mostly in line; Maintain BUY

LMIR Trust’s (LMIR) FY10 gross revenue jumped 50.9% to S$129.4m, which was in line with our projection of S$130m and market expectation of S$131m (based on consensus estimate from Bloomberg). Distributable income, however, slipped 11.4% to S$47.8m, partly due to higher operating expenses subsequent to the expiry of the Operating Costs Agreements with third party operators (Opcos) on 31 Dec 2009. Previously, LMIR outsourced the maintenance and operation of seven malls to Opcos, but it has since taken charge directly in FY10. 4Q DPU is 1.11 S-cents (also in line with our forecast of 1.15 S-cents), representing an annualized yield of 8.16%, based on yesterday’s closing price of S$0.54. Going forward, Management guided that the Indonesian economy is projected to remain buoyant, which will benefit the retail industry. Our investment thesis for LMIR remains intact, supported by Indonesia’s growth story and LMIR’s quality assets. Maintain BUY with an unchanged fair value of S$0.59

4Q DPU of 1.11 S-cents. LMIR Trust (LMIR) reported 4Q10 gross revenue of S$19.3m, up 41.6% YoY but down 4.7% QoQ. Distributable income however dropped 3.3% YoY but rose 2.5% QoQ to S$12.1m. For FY10, gross revenue jumped 50.9% to S$129.4m, which was in line with our projection of S$130m and market expectation of S$131m (based on consensus estimate from Bloomberg). Distributable income, however, slipped 11.4% to S$47.8m, partly due to higher operating expenses subsequent to the expiry of the Operating Costs Agreements with third party operators (Opcos) on 31 Dec 2009. Previously, Opcos were given rights to the service charges receipt and utilities cost recovery from tenants, whilst responsible for the costs directly related to the maintenance and operation of seven malls. The operating costs have since been passed on directly to the REIT in FY10. 4Q DPU is 1.11 S-cents (also in line with our forecast of 1.15 S-cents), representing an annualized yield of 8.16%, based on yesterday’s closing price of S$0.54. This was 4.1% lower than the 1.16 S-cents paid out in 4Q09.

Portfolio Performance. Overall portfolio occupancy increases 1.4 pp YoY to 98.3%; this compares well against Jakarta’s average occupancy rate of 86.3%. LMIR also benefited from positive rental reversion with renewed leases contracted at 10% higher on average than the ones that have expired during the year. LMIR continues to have a well-diversified portfolio, with no particular trade sector accounting for more than 17% of total net leasable area (NLA), and no single property accounting for more than 18% of total net property income (NPI). We also noted that LMIR’s gearing ratio of 10.3% is relatively low, compared to other retail REITs. This places it in a favorable position to use debt financing to embark on inorganic growth in FY2011. On the organic-growth front, we also understand that LMIR is exploring asset enhancement opportunities at some of its existing malls.

Positive Outlook. Management guided that the Indonesian economy is projected to remain buoyant , which will benefit the retail industry. Retail leasing has started to pick up in 3Q10, with a large number of leases recorded and several notable deals witnessed in newly completed projects. Foreign major retailers were also increasingly active in the market, with expansion plans in response to market opportunities. Furthermore, as new supply is expected to grow moderately in 2011, nationwide vacancy is anticipated to stabilize at around 13.3% by end of 2011. Such a trend helps the market to maintain stable occupancy and record good rental reversions going forward. Our investment thesis for LMIR remains intact, supported by Indonesia’s growth story and LMIR’s quality assets. Maintain BUY with an unchanged fair value of S$0.59


Source/转贴/Extract/: OCBC Investment Research
Publish date:17/02/11

Neptune Orient Lines: Recovery well underway

Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) reported FY10 earnings of US$461m, in line with our estimate but above the street’s US$402m forecast. This was achieved on the back of a 45% growth in revenue to US$9.4b. 4Q10 revenue grew 37% YoY to US$2.8b while net profit of US$178m represented a reversal from its US$211m loss a year ago. Favourable industry dynamics have spurred higher freight rates and volumes, boosting revenue and profit margins across both its Liner and Logistics segments. While freight rates have softened in a seasonally lull 4Q, management anticipates rates to firm post Lunar New Year, and as low inventory levels stoke restocking demand. We anticipate positive, albeit moderating growth in FY11. We have raised our projections and lift our fair value estimate to S$2.70 (previously S$2.50). Maintain BUY. A final dividend of 4.6 S cents has been declared.

FY10 in line with expectations. Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) reported a satisfactory set of FY10 results with earnings of US$461m, in line with our estimate but above the street’s US$402m forecast. This was achieved on the back of a 45% growth in revenue to US$9.4b. For 4Q10, the group delivered a 37% YoY and 14% QoQ growth in revenue to US$2.8b. Gross profit came in at US$400m, up from US$0.3m a year ago but down 20% QoQ due to a sequential decline in freight rates, which have a direct impact on profitability. Net profit of US$178m represented a reversal from its US$211m loss a year ago, but declined by 37% QoQ. 4Q10 marked NOL’s third consecutive quarter in the black since the economic downturn in 2009. A final dividend of 4.6 S cents has been declared. We expect the group to reinstate its 20% dividend payout ratio as it returns to profitability.

Favourable industry dynamics spur broad-based growth. NOL’s 4Q10 performance was driven by revenue and margin improvements across both its Liner and Logistics segments as favourable industry dynamics spurred higher volumes and freight rates. The Liner segment posted a 40% YoY increase in revenue to US$2.4b, while the Logistics segment delivered a 24% growth in revenue to US$380. Overall core EBIT margins reversed from -9.1% a year ago to 7.1% in 4Q10, driven largely by the sharp turnaround in Liner margins from -11.3% in 4Q09 to 7.3% in 4Q10, further buoyed by a 1.6ppt improvement in Logistics margins to 5.8%. Sequentially, however, overall EBIT margin declined by 6ppt as lower freight rates compressed margins. Average freight rate fell by 12% QoQ owing to the seasonally lull period. Going forward, management anticipates firming of freight rates, driven by volume recovery post Lunar New Year coupled with potential restocking demand in view of low inventory levels.

Further recovery in 2011. We anticipate positive, albeit moderating growth in FY11. Leading indicators point to an increase in US manufacturing activity, while shipping dynamics suggest positive demand and supply balance in 2011 and 2012 . We have raised our FY11 estimates to reflect higher freight rates and rollover our valuations to FY11 (previously blended FY10/11), lifting our fair value estimate from S$2.50 to S$2.70. Maintain BUY. Key risks include sluggish global economic recovery and capacity overhang from new vessel deliveries, which may depress freight rates.


Source/转贴/Extract/: OCBC Investment Research
Publish date:17/02/11

Are cooling measures really working?

by Colin Tan 05:55 AM
Feb 18, 2011
The news headlines this week about developer's home sales for last month were almost comical, doing little justice to the actual reports that followed. Unfortunately, people remember the headlines and not so much the details.

Data released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) on Tuesday showed a total of 1,189 new private homes sold last month. That is a 10.7 per cent drop from December and a three-month low.

Alas, this is sufficient for some analysts to conclude that the latest round of cooling measures was having an impact already.

And that the drop was not worse than expected as the measures were introduced only in middle of last month and were still working their way through the market. However, the full impact will be felt only in March, they said.

Much as I share the same sentiment and the hopes of many to see a more stable market, I think our impatience to see the measures work this time around is making our analyses and reports sound like propaganda.

Let us put aside the cooling measures for the time being and look at the numbers for what they are.

Take the "three-month low" headline. It is factually correct but did you know that there were three occasions over the past twelve months when the URA number hit three-month lows. Including January this year, the other two occurred in June and September last year. This is one short of a perfect score.

Take the 10.7 per cent drop in sales. I recall the December sales figure actually showed a sharper drop of 30 per cent from the previous month and this was before the latest cooling measures were announced. In fact, developers' sales of private homes recorded far greater month-on-month falls on four other occasions last year. They occurred in February (-19.2 per cent), May (-51.2 per cent), June (-21.4 per cent) and August (-19.4 per cent).

What about the excuse of having only half a month for the measures to work, given they were announced on Jan 13 to be effective the following day?

Assuming developers do most of their sales on weekends, there were five such weekends in January - two before the measures and three after. Of the two before, one was a public holiday weekend (New Year's Day).

After saying the measures are definitely having an impact, some market watchers are predicting more or less the same sales volume for February. We have the whole month here - ironically, the shortest month in the calendar year.

Did I miss a step or two in the reasoning here?

What is the compelling reason for the full effect to show up only in March? Maybe February is not a good month to gauge the impact as buyers are flush with cash from red packets handed out from the Chinese New Year celebrations and simply need to put some of it down for a property or two.

Let us not forget that January and February have traditionally been slow months for sales.

If we continue to sell 1,189 units each month for the next 11 months, this will bring total sales for the year to 14,268 units.

This will make it the third best result ever after last year and 2009.

In the latest figures, suburban properties chalked up the most sales with 588 units. If we include the 345 executive condominium units sold, the demand for the mass market housing segment amounted to 933 units. Are these signs of fragility in this market segment?

Let us bring in the cooling measures now. The imposition of a sellers' stamp duty of 16 per cent for a resale unit in the first year, dropping by 4 per cent for each subsequent year, made headlines across the world when it was first announced.

If Hong Kong can do it, we can do it one better. Short of a complete ban on purchases, it must be among the harshest if not the stiffest in the world.

In that light, we are surely entitled to expect a far greater impact than the one we have seen to date.

Finally, someone forgot to tell the 13 developers who participated in a tender for a mixed residential-commercial site in Punggol that the latest cooling measures are having a significant impact on the market. The top bid crossed S$1 billion.

Although this is a mixed-use site, the group with the highest bid said it wanted to build about 680 flats with water views incorporated within a waterfront development and including a 365,000-sq-ft retail mall.

That is absolutely amazing for a site in a far corner of Singapore. Sadly, once again, the headlines did not do justice to the significance of the billion-dollar bid. What they overplayed in the private home sales story, they underplayed in the land tender story.



Colin Tan is Head, Research & Consultancy at Chesterton Suntec International.

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.todayonline.com
Publish date:18/02/11

Hot money inflows to China 'relatively small'

05:56 AM Feb 18, 2011
BEIJING - The amount of hot money entering China is relatively small, its foreign exchange regulator said yesterday, countering the popular view that it faces a torrent of speculative inflows.

A net US$35.5 billion (S$45.4 billion) of hot money sneaked into China last year, accounting for 7.6 per cent of the country's increase in official currency reserves, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) said.

In China's first public report to estimate the volume of speculative cash entering the country, SAFE said that hot money was not nearly as big a problem as worried officials often suggest.

Illicit cash inflows were more like "ants moving home", coming in bits and pieces via multiple deals and transactions, the regulator added.

It said the capital flows in and out of China were generally in line with the country's real level of economic activity.

"We have not found evidence of any large-scale capital inflows coordinated by any established financial institution," the agency said.

In a separate announcement yesterday, China's Commerce Ministry said foreign direct investment rose 23.4 per cent on-year to US$10 billion last month.

China attracted some US$105.7 billion in foreign direct investment last year, including a record US$14 billion in December, the ministry said. Reuters

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.todayonline.com
Publish date:18/02/11

Tiger shares fall on news of Ryanasia sell-off

by Jonathan Peeris
05:55 AM Feb 18, 2011
SINGAPORE - Shares of Tiger Airways nosedived yesterday, falling as much as 5.4 per cent in intra-day trade following news of a share placement by a major shareholder.

IFR, a Thomson Reuters service, reported that Tiger shareholder Ryanasia is selling 18.6 million Tiger shares to raise up to S$29.9 million at an indicative price of between S$1.58 and S$1.61 per share.

Traders also told Reuters that there might be concerns about the performance of Tiger's Australian operations. The budget carrier, which operates out of bases in Singapore and Australia, said it had suspended services between Melbourne and Darwin, in a bid to "adapt its network in response to demand and to reduce its costs".

When contacted by MediaCorp, a Tiger spokesman said the company could not confirm the reports about the Ryanasia sale but added that the firm was the smallest of Tiger's substantial shareholders, with a 5.5-per-cent stake in the budget carrier.

On the suspension of the Melbourne-Darwin route, Tiger said it was part and parcel of its active management of its route portfolio. The carrier said that, despite the cancellation of the route, it continued to grow its operations in Australia.

Tiger shares recouped part of the day's loss but still closed 4.2 per cent lower at S$1.59. Jonathan Peeris

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.todayonline.com
Publish date:18/02/11

Jan NODX up 21% on-year

Non-electronic exports up 31% on-year; electronics expected to be growth driver
by Millet Enriquez 05:56 AM Feb 18, 2011SINGAPORE - Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) grew 21 per cent year-on-year in January.

Data released yesterday by trade agency IE Singapore showed shipment of Singapore-made goods - both electronic and non-electronic - rose in January.

Electronic NODX expanded 5.8 per cent in January from a year earlier, compared with a decline of 1.1 per cent in the previous month. This was driven by higher shipments in integrated circuits, PCs and telecommunication equipment.

Non-electronic NODX grew 31 per cent on-year, following a 16-per-cent increase in December, led by pharmaceuticals, specialised machinery and petrochemicals.

NODX saw an expansion in all key markets in January, with the European Union, United States and China the top three destinations.

Compared with December, Singapore's NODX increased by a seasonally-adjusted 2.2 per cent in January, in contrast to the previous month's 7.9-per-cent growth.

Earlier, IE Singapore upgraded its NODX forecast to between 8 and 10 per cent for the whole of this year -up from the previous forecast of between 6 and 8 per cent. IE Singapore said that, for all of last year, Singapore's NODX grew by 23 per cent.

Mr P K Basu, chief economist for Asia ex-Japan at Daiwa Capital Markets Research in Singapore, said: "I think that global demand is going to be strengthening in the course of the year. In particular, the second half will be better than the first half."

While electronic NODX will continue to drive growth, he said petrochemicals would also be an emerging sector that will likely play a significant role in driving both exports and industrial output. Other analysts added marine offshore engineering as a potential outperformer.

Standard Chartered economist Alvin Liew said: "We think that growth in NODX could be in the range of 5 to 10 per cent. I would be more cautious on how growth would be for exports."

He cited the high-base effect from last year, volatility in the pharmaceutical sector and uncertainty in key markets like US and China as risk factors.


Source/转贴/Extract/:www.todayonline.com
Publish date:18/02/11

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Liquidity-driven rally running dry

KUALA LUMPUR: Following the ups and downs of the local market barometer, the FBM KLCI, over the last few weeks, investors would no doubt be asking whether last week’s losses were merely a blip in a rally stretching nearly two years.

Last Thursday, the FBM KLCI plunged 32.1 points, followed by a 9.5-point fall the next day. The index ended last Friday at 1,494.52, below the psychologically important 1,500 level.

The sell-off wiped 41.6 points off the key index in two days, erasing its gains for the year.

On Monday, bargain hunting, a regional rally and talks of an imminent Sarawak state election helped lift the FBM KLCI by 10.8 points to 1,505.33.

However, signs of investor nervousness remain. Indeed, the index had earlier risen to as high as 1,513.29 during intra-day trading on Monday, before paring half its gains at the close.

Malaysia was not alone in the sell-down, which also hit most regional bourses.

Year-to-date, the FBM KLCI has declined 0.9%, Singapore’s Straits Times Index has fallen 2.5% and Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite Index is down a steep 7.7%.

Investors monitor stock market prices in Kuala Lumpur last Thursday. The index ended last week at 1,494.52, below the psychologically important 1,500 level.


The sell-down highlights the risks brought by the inflows of speculative funds or “hot money”, as foreign investors lock in their gains after a strong performance over the last two years.

The fund inflows, much of it speculative in nature, was in turn fuelled by abundant liquidity brought about by loose US monetary policy. With the implementation of the US Federal Reserve’s second round of quantitative easing, or QE2, many had expected liquidity inflows to continue this year, at least in the first half.

However, foreign funds now appear to be heading for the exit instead. An analyst attributes this to selling ahead of expectations, as no one wants to be the last to exit.

According to various statistics, foreign participation in Malaysian equities and fixed-income instruments appeared to have peaked late last year as a better outlook in advanced economies prompted a reversal in fund flows from emerging Asian economies.

Analysts said the reversal in fund flows was also due to the threat of inflation and potential interest rate hikes in Asia.

Another reason is the possibility of more capital controls to curb the inflow of hot money.


Analysts also attributed the sell-off to profit-taking activity after a stellar run going back to March 2009, as well as increased risk premiums for emerging markets following mass demonstrations in Tunisia, Egypt and other parts of the Middle East.

“Reversal has started and it’s gradual,” Lim Chee Sing, RHB Research Institute head of research, told The Edge Financial Daily last week.

Foreign participation in local equities and fixed-income instruments may have peaked last September and October respectively, according to Lim.

Fixed-income assets include bonds, and money market instruments
Bursa Malaysia updates show that foreign investor participation in the local stock market fell last month as overseas buyers’ net purchases declined.

Foreign institutional and retail investors collectively account for 23.52% of the RM52 billion worth of stocks traded on the bourse during the month, compared with 27.13% in December last year when the value traded came to RM35.7 billion.

Net purchases of local equities by overseas buyers fell to RM100 million in January, a significant decline from the RM2.6 billion seen a month earlier.

Foreign participation in local equities appeared to be declining after peaking last September when their net purchases stood at RM4.4 billion. The figure dipped to RM1.8 billion in October, before declining to RM900 million in November.

According to RHB, foreign portfolio investment in Malaysian debt paper rose from a low of RM42.2 billion in March 2009 to a high of RM127 billion as at end-October 2010. In November and December last year, the figures stood at RM118.6 billion and RM121 billion respectively.

Lim said the reversal in fund flows has been prompted by renewed interest in US equities, whose valuations are looking more attractive now as the market sees a recovery in the world’s largest economy taking shape.

Meanwhile, in Asia, the spotlight has fallen on the threat of soaring prices, which could prompt central banks to tighten their monetary policies more aggressively in the months ahead, he added.

Meanwhile, the on-going political crisis in North Africa could also spur demand for US dollars as a safe-haven.

In RHB’s market outlook and strategy report for 2011, the research house warns that liquidity-driven rallies seldom last and unexpected events may result in the reversal of capital flows from emerging Asian markets back to developed economies earlier than expected.

“The key risk is that, as the US dollar starts to strengthen fundamentally on the back of an improving economy (the US dollar has staged a technical rebound since mid-November), short-term funds that came to emerging markets for currency appreciation may find the risk-reward situation reversing.

“This, coupled with the relatively more attractive valuations of the developed markets, may cause short-term capital to reverse out, in our view,” RHB said.

In a note last Friday, Maybank Investment Bank Research said, with net foreign purchases of Malaysian equities amounting to RM16 billion since early this year, the market could remain weak for a while.

Preliminary data indicated that foreigners had become net sellers last week (Feb 7 to 11), with total sales of RM1.18 billion, according to Maybank.

Following the sell-off in local equities, the research house said the broader market offered the opportunity to accumulate stocks with good fundamentals.

“We will, however, avoid stocks which have recently seen a rise in foreign shareholding for now ,” Maybank said.

Maybank continues to favour shares in oil and gas fabrication companies such as Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering Holdings Bhd, Kencana Petroleum Bhd and SapuraCrest Petroleum Bhd.

The research house also recommends Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd, WCT Bhd and Notion VTec Bhd. These companies are expected to announce above-consensus profits for the final quarter of 2010.

Also worth noting are Petronas Chemicals Group Bhd, and Hartalega Holdings Bhd for their “synthetic story”, the research house added.

Rising inflation in Asian economies had fuelled expectations of further interest rate hikes this year, casting a shadow over the region’s equity markets. So far this year, India, South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia and China have all raised rates.

In theory, rate hikes do not bode well for equities. Higher interest rates translate into less discretionary spending by consumers and discourage business expansion due to costlier funds.

This, in turn, puts downward pressure on corporate earnings and the share prices of companies.

But on the other hand, higher rates also encourage foreign fund flows into the region as investors seek better returns in emerging-market assets.

This translates into handsome returns for foreign investors as they stand to reap both the currency exchange gains and capital appreciation on the assets.

Anthony Dass, MIDF Amanah Investment Bank chief economist, said interest rate hikes in China had put investors in a quandary.

The question, according to Dass, is whether rate hikes in China will lead to further gains in equities or induce downward pressure on the stock markets.

“Theory says that interest rates and equity prices are inversely correlated. But rising interest rates could signal a robust economy, and by corollary, corporate earnings.

“Therefore rising interest rates could increase equity prices. That, at least, has been the empirical evidence in China,” he said.

In the US, improving unemployment figures and consumer sentiment, besides a stabilising property market, are important signs of a sustainable recovery in the coming months.

The US unemployment rate fell to 9% in January, the lowest level in nearly two years, and down from 9.4% in December 2010 and 9.8% in November 2010.

However, the non-farm payroll figure increased by only 36,000 last month, the least in four months and far less than the 145,000 increase that economists expected.

Still, money appears to be moving back to the US as well as Europe, judging by the gains on Wall Street and major European bourses this year.

Year-to-date, the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices are up 6%, 6.7% and 5.9% respectively. In Europe, the German Dax and French CAC 40 indices are up 7% and 8% respectively.

The jury is still out on how strong and sustainable the US recovery will be, but two things are quite clear: First, a recovery in the US economy is, ironically, bad news for liquidity-driven rallies across Asia. Second, “hot money” has no allegiances — it can flow out as quickly as it flows in.


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, February 16, 2011.



Source/转贴/Extract/: www.theedgemalaysia.com
Publish date:17/02/11

KrisAssets soars to 11-year high on The Gardens deal

KUALA LUMPUR: KrisAssets Holdings Bhd’s share price yesterday closed at an 11-year high of RM4.05 following news on Monday that its parent company IGB Corp Bhd would dispose its entire holdings in Mid Valley City Gardens Sdn Bhd to KrisAssets for RM820 million.

Its shares hit an intra-day high of RM4.06 before closing one sen lower on a volume of 192,300 shares.

Conversely, IGB shares ended lower at RM2.15 on the back of the news, with 100,000 shares done. KrisAssets is 75%-owned by IGB.

Mid Valley City Gardens is the owner and operator of The Gardens Mall, a retail property located in Mid Valley City.

In a research note, JP Morgan said the impact of the transaction would be that IGB could net a gain of RM220 million or 15 sen per share from the disposal, while reducing its stake in The Gardens Mall to 75% from 100%.

“The 25% sell-down implies net cash proceeds of RM205 million or 6% of market cap/yield to be upstreamed to the IGB Corp level,” it said. “This should provide greater financial strength or flexibility for new investment opportunities at the IGB level, or even the possibility of higher dividends.”

In December last year, The Edge Malaysia had reported speculation that KrisAssets had plans to purchase The Gardens from IGB following the former’s issuance of RM300 million in redeemable convertible bonds.

The exercise could be viewed favourably as it would allow IGB to unlock the value of its assets, while giving the low-profile KrisAssets a much-needed boost, The Edge reported.

JP Morgan has an “overweight” call on IGB with a price target of RM3, which represents a 20% discount to its revised net asset value of RM3.60.

According to Bloomberg, IGB has six “buy” calls from analysts and one “hold” and “sell”, respectively, with an average target price of RM2.61.

KrisAssets is under coverage by only one research firm, SJ Securities Sdn Bhd, which has a “buy” call on the stock with a target price of RM3.42 as at March 2010.


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, February 17, 2011


Source/转贴/Extract/: www.theedgemalaysia.com
Publish date:17/02/11

Is conversion into a REIT next for KrisAssets?

KUALA LUMPUR: With The Gardens finally being injected to KrisAssets Holdings Bhd from its parent IGB Corporation Bhd, will this eventually lead to the establishment of a retail real estate investment trust (REIT) to underpin transparency of maturing rental income and take advantage of better REIT tax benefits?

Analysts note that KrisAssets already has a structure akin to a REIT, with its sole property asset being the 10-year old Mid Valley Megamall.

An industry source said Mid Valley Megamall currently fetched a rental yield higher than most of the retail REITs listed on the local bourse. The Gardens is believed to have yield similar to prevailing industry average of retail listed REITs, added the source.

The prevailing industry average of retailed listed REITs is around 6% to 8%. According to the source, the rental rates were revised every three years and the yield of The Gardens could probably go up when its revision is due.

In view of the high rental yield KrisAssets can fetch, will the establishment of a REIT be possibly on the table?
KrisAssets had on Monday announced it was entering into a heads of agreement with its parent IGB Corp to buy The Gardens, which has an indicative value of RM820 million.

KrisAssets had on Monday announced it was entering into a heads of agreement with its parent IGB Corp to buy The Gardens, which has an indicative value of RM820 million.

“There would be potential synergistic benefits arising from the proposed acquisition which include amongst others cost savings, operational streamlining and collaborative marketing strategies in Mid Valley City as a whole,” said KrisAssets.

This announcement came after both IGB Corp and KrisAssets were suspended from trading last Friday pending a material announcement. IGB holds a 77.5% stake in KrisAssets.

According to the announcement, the purchase of The Gardens was to be financed via cash. With KrisAsset’s recent issuance of RM300 million convertible secured bonds, the company would have some RM500 million cash.

However, AmResearch, in a research note to clients on Monday, said the divestment of other assets may take some time as KrisAssets would be faced with funding issues to acquire the remaining of the Mid Valley City’s assets such as Mid Valley and Gardens office towers and hotels, which had an estimated combined value of RM2 billion to RM3 billion.

“Thus we think the establishment of a REIT may not materialise,” it said. Nonetheless, a conversion to REIT for KrisAssets is beneficial from a taxation angle. To qualify as a REIT, a fund must have most of its assets and income tied to real estate investment and must distribute at least 90% of its total income to unitholders annually.

In Malaysia, REITs are exempted from corporate tax if it distributes at least 90% of its total income. REIT unitholders also enjoy a lower 10% withholding tax on distribution.

To recap, KrisAssets, which is a hardly-traded counter, saw its trading volume pick up substantially in early December last year following the approval by the Securities Commission to issue up to RM300 million seven-year redeemable convertible secured bonds.

KrisAssets closed at RM3.90 while its parent IGB Corp closed at RM2.32 prior to being suspended. Notably, KrisAssets is trading at a historical PER of 6.61 times, which is below prevailing industry average in the REITs sector and also the property sector.


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, February 16, 2011.


Source/转贴/Extract/: www.theedgemalaysia.com
Publish date:16/02/11

Singapore cuts 4Q GDP estimate, raises inflation forecast

Singapore’s economy expanded at a slower pace than first estimated in the fourth quarter of 2010, but the government raised its inflation forecast for this year, highlighting prices pressures in Asia as fast growth and soaring commodities prices challenge policy makers around the region.
Singapore, an economic bellwether for the Asian region, also reported stronger-than-expected exports for January, showing external demand continued to underpin its trade-dependent economy.

The Ministry of Trade and Industry said Thursday it expects the island state’s inflation rate to reach 3.0% to 4.0% this year, higher than its previous forecast of 2.0%-3.0%, and warned it could hit 5.0% to 6.0% in the first few months of the year before moderating in the second half. It said dealing with emerging cost pressures will be "the key macroeconomic challenge this year."

The central bank said it sees no need now to revise its monetary policy stance as the previous tightening measures taken in April and October last year will act to curb prices pressures.

“As monetary policy works with some lag, the previous policy moves in April and October will continue to have a restraining effect on growth and inflation over the course of 2011,” Deputy Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Ong Chong Tee said.

“At this stage, there is no need to revise the monetary policy that was announced on Oct. 14,” he said.

However, analysts have started calling for more tightening at the April review.

“Growth (in 2011) will ease but keep pace with potential, keeping capacity tight and upward pressures on inflation in place. Further tightening of macroeconomic policies is needed, with the upcoming budget and a spring monetary policy meeting providing good opportunities to act as needed,”Leif Eskesen, HSBC’s chief economist for India and Asean, said in a note.

The Singapore economy grew 3.9% in the fourth quarter from the third quarter in seasonally adjusted, annualized terms, according to revised figures released by the Ministry of Trade and Industry. That’s a slower than an expansion of 6.9% the ministry estimated last month.

From a year earlier, the economy expanded 12.0%, according to the revised data, down from preliminary 12.5% growth. For 2010, the economy grew 14.5%, less than the 14.7% expansion reported last month. Even so, the growth in 2010 remained the fastest pace of economic expansion in the country’s 45-year history.

The government said it expects GDP to grow 4.0%-6.0% in 2011, faster than what it calls the economy’s medium-term potential.

Separately, latest trade data showed non-oil exports climbed 20.9% on year in January, beating analyst estimates of a 15.9% expansion, as shipments of key electronics products and pharmaceuticals increased.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports unexpectedly rose 2.2% on month in January after rising 7.9% in December. A Dow Jones Newswires poll had projected a 4.9% contraction in January.

Export-dependent Singapore was among the worst hit during the global financial crisis, but was quick to mend when the recovery started taking shape in late 2009.

Singapore uses its foreign exchange rate as its main policy tool to maintain price stability and guide economic growth as foreign trade dwarfs the city-state’s near US$250 billion economy. Last year, the MAS undertook an aggressive monetary policy tightening by guiding the Singapore dollar higher against a basket of currencies and adopting a path of "modest and gradual appreciation" of the local currency.

“MAS’ assessment of underlying price and cost pressures is largely the same as that in the previous policy review which took into account price increases alongside the strong rebound and continued growth in the economy,” Ong said.

The trade ministry warned that the economy continues to face downside risks, including the sovereign debt concerns in the euro zone and inflationary concerns in Asia that may prompt further monetary tightening by Asian central banks.

“Domestically, the economy is also facing a tighter labour market,” it said.

The Singapore dollar didn’t react much to both sets of data. At 1:40 p.m., the U.S. dollar was quoted at $1.2783, a tad down from $1.2792 late Asia Wednesday.

Output in the manufacturing sector rose 25.5% from a year earlier in the fourth quarter, weaker than the growth of 28.2% estimated earlier. The services sector grew at the earlier estimated 8.8%, while the construction activity fell a revised 2.0% more severe than the initially estimated 1.2%, the data showed.




Source/转贴/Extract/: www.theedgesingapore.com
Publish date:17/02/11

Deep-value hunters

Deep-value hunters

Lumiere Capital’s Victor Khoo and Wong Yu Liang have steered their fund to the top of the Singapore-registered hedge-fund category over the past two years with some astute stock-picking. Find out which counters they are betting on for 2011.

With piles of paper and file folders scrappily stacked on top of mineral water cartons, which are flanked by two desks in an unadorned pint-sized room, the workplace of Victor Khoo and Wong Yu Liang resembles a dormitory rather than an office befitting millionaire hedge-fund managers.

The co-founders of Singapore-based hedge fund company Lumiere Capital, however, aren’t bothered about the cluttered look of their work-place, which has been a “second home” to them for nearly four years. They also care little about the lack of space or natural light in the office, which is located on the third floor of Far East Square.

What matters most, according to the duo, who spoke to Personal Wealth in a recent interview, is the delivery of good returns and cost savings to investors. “There is no window in our current workplace, but we don’t mind,” says Khoo, who pays just $1,200 in office rental each month. “We are value investors after all, and we try to keep our spending modest,” adds Wong. Khoo and Wong, both 33, were schoolmates at the Nanyang Technological University and ex-colleagues at defunct accounting firm Arthur Andersen. They now jointly run a long-only Asian-focused equity fund called the Lumiere Value Fund. Managing assets in excess of $30 million, of which nearly half is their own money, the budding hedge-fund managers aim to achieve a compounded annual return of 20% for their fund investors over the long term by investing in a concentrated portfolio of “about 25 core stocks”, consisting mainly of under-valued small- and mid-cap counters. And in recent years, they have been hitting their investment goals fairly successfully.

Surviving the global financial crisis of 2008, which saw the Lumiere Value Fund lose two-thirds of its value, Khoo and Wong are back with a bang. In 2009 and 2010, the fund delivered stellar gains of 157% and 38%, respectively, in local dollar terms and came up tops in the Singapore-registered hedge-fund category for both years, beating roughly 600-plus rivals, based on data from Lipper/TASS.

Khoo and Wong say they didn’t lose their investment focus during the darkest hours of the credit crunch of 2008, when their fund’s assets under management (AUM) declined to less than $3 million from an initial size of $5 million in 4Q2007, when they started managing it. “During the crisis, rather than sitting back and mulling over our losses, we intensified our research effort and found a lot more companies that we liked,” Wong recalls.

It was unclear in 2008 whether the stock markets would continue to fall, or how long they would remain in a slump. But Khoo and Wong  already hit with hefty losses  kept faith with their deep-value investment approach and bought more of their favourite stocks that were trading at huge discounts to their intrinsic value.

“Near the market bottom, some companies were paying very good dividends of 10% while trading at two to three times earnings. The market as a whole was very, very cheap, and it was about finding which companies were more undervalued,” says Wong, who reveals that his fund had to resort to selling some holdings in order to buy cheaper stocks that had fallen off the cliff.

The payoff came quickly and the Singapore-listed counters they bought, such as lifestyle products maker Osim, directories and advertising firm Yellow Pages, furniture maker HTL International and systems integrator CSE Global, all rebounded strongly in 2009, enabling the Lumiere Value Fund to recoup most of the losses it incurred in the previous year.

For 2010, the fund continued its impressive performance, with gains of nearly 40% after the portfolio managers shifted its focus to Hong Kong-listed stocks. Indeed, bets on counters such as jewellery retail chains Chow Sang Sang and Luk Fook as well as apparel company IT Ltd  all of which were bought at “below seven times earnings”  generated the most gains for the fund last year. The three counters went on to become “market darlings”, trading at an expensive price-to-earnings ratio (PER) of 17 to 25 times, and were sold in late 2010, say Khoo and Wong. The pair also divested Osim, HTL and other Singapore-listed stocks, including Tiong Woon, KTL and Wing Tai, for “a nice profit” after these counters surged to price levels near their intrinsic value.

This year, Khoo and Wong aim to continue their winning streak with a new group of stock bets, including Singapore-listed instant coffee maker Food Empire, Hong Kong-listed logistics firm Changan Minsheng APLL (CMA) Logis-tics and Asian satellite company APT Satellite, which is also listed in Hong Kong.

Value approach
Doing their own research, the Lumiere managers adopt methods similar to those used by legendary investor Warren Buffett, who is their idol. “We try to emulate what Buffett was doing in the 1960s, when he first set up his fund,” says Khoo.

For a start, they would estimate the long-term growth rates of companies in order to determine their intrinsic value. “For a company with 15% or 20% growth over the long term, we would ascribe a fair PER of 12 times, based on current-year earnings,” explains Khoo, who doesn’t use future earnings in his calculations. “We don’t want to pay for future [expectations], we want to see what the company has achieved to date.”

To get a realistic estimate of a company’s intrinsic value, adjustments would be made to its earnings profile. “In industries where certain supply-and-demand conditions cause the profit margins [of companies] to be above average, we would adjust the margins to their long-term average. From that, we get the so-called sustainable earnings, and we apply a multiple to it,” says Khoo. “For a company earning $1, its fair value could be $12. We then demand a 50% discount to its fair value. So, we buy at $6,” he adds.

The managers say they will continue to bet on “deep-value companies” with good growth potential that are “under the radar” of big institutional investors. “There isn’t much research coverage on the companies that we buy into. These are smaller companies that have yet to be discovered by other big investors,” Wong explains. Other better-known names could be out-of-favour counters trading at low valuations owing to “special situations”, he adds.


Stock bets
Food Empire, whose instant coffee brand has a very strong franchise and market share in Eastern Europe, is one such out-of-favour stock that could see a strong turna-round soon, according to Khoo. He says during the 2008 financial crisis, currencies of many Eastern European countries such as Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan depreciated sharply. “That affected Food Empire’s business negatively, because costs were in strong currencies, while revenues were in weaker currencies.”

At the same time, Food Empire stopped sales to some distributors who were deemed to be not credit-worthy. That caused the company’s FY2009 sales to decline 33% and profits to slump 86% that fiscal year. “Now, the situation has normalised and it is resuming its distribution channels. So, margins look set to recover to pre-crisis levels. It is also planning to expand to new markets such as the Middle East and India. We have spoken to the management and we believe that a turnaround is on the cards,” Khoo adds.

Although Food Empire’s share price has rebounded from a low of 20 cents in March 2009 to 52 cents currently, Khoo reckons that the stock is still trading at a discounted level of seven times its normalised earnings. More upside is expected from this stock, which could soon be back in favour with investors, he predicts. Lumiere Value Fund’s investment in Food Empire is up about 50% from cost, but the managers say they will not sell yet. “We are prepared to hold on to our stocks for three to five years. In return, we expect our money to at least double. Historically, we have managed to do that. Some of our best investments have gone up 10-fold,” says Khoo, who recently sold HTL after the stock surged eight times the fund’s initial entry price.

Another cheap stock with good growth potential in the fund’s portfolio is CMA Logistics, which provides logistics services for the automotive industry in China. “We feel that it is a proxy to automobile growth in China. The company’s customers account for 10% of the total vehicle production in China and we are bullish on the automotive industry in China,” says Wong, who likes the Hong Kong-listed company’s strong growth profile and corporate governance.

CMA Logistics, which is partly owned by APL (a subsidiary of Singapore-listed logistics and shipping giant NOL), will continue to experience strong earnings growth on the back of a high demand for cars in China, according to the duo. “On a per-capita basis, the number of vehicles in China is still about one-fifth that of developed markets such as the US, Europe and Japan. The growth could be a 10-year story. As such, companies such as CMA, which does the supply chain management of China’s auto industry, are going to do very well,” says Wong. He adds that the company is in a strong net-cash position, while its stocks are trading at a low valuation of just six times earnings.

Similarly, APT Satellite, which sells satellite bandwidth to cable TV and telecom companies, could see strong growth in the near future, as the company has the ability to increase its band-width pricing. “If APT’s pricing goes up by just a bit, its margin will shoot up,” says Wong. Another reason why he likes the stock is the increased global demand for digital high-definition (HD) TVs. “To broadcast content on HD TV, you would need 50% more bandwidth, compared with the normal TV. As you know, the whole world is going HD. When more people use HD TVs, there will be more demand for satellite bandwidth.” That’s the growth driver for satellite companies such as APT, whose stocks are trading at five to six times earnings, Wong tells Personal Wealth.

For sure, stock markets in Asia will continue to be choppy in 2011. “But we are not worried about a volatile market. We like volatility, which works both ways. If you buy high, volatility is going to kill you when prices come down. But if you buy stocks at a low price, volatility is going to help you when prices move up,” says Khoo confidently.

Undergrad stock punters The fund managers, who didn’t know each other when they were at NTU, started investing in Singapore-listed stocks even during their undergrad days in the late 1990s. “During the Internet boom-and-bust period, my trading was very news-driven,” Wong recalls. “I made and lost money, but I didn’t know why. To me, that didn’t feel right,” Khoo adds.

After graduating with an accountancy degree in 2001, Khoo incurred “substantial paper losses” from his stock-trading. “I decided something had to be done,” he says. Hoping to find a better way to stock investing, he started reading a book on Buffett called The Warren Buffett Way: Investment Strategies of the World’s Greatest Investor. “I finished the book in two hours, but I took three months to research as many companies as possible.” After studying different approaches of investing in other books, “the style I found I was more comfortable with was value investing”, says Khoo.

During that same time, Wong was also reading books on different investment gurus such as Peter Lynch, John Neff, John Templeton and Buffett. But he, too, was intrigued and attracted by Buffett’s approach. “The scientific approach towards value investing, where you can find the intrinsic value of a stock, really appealed to me,” Wong says.

It was not until months later, at an Arthur Andersen corporate retreat in Penang that the pair got acquainted. “Both of us started work at Arthur Andersen on the eve of Sept 11, 2001. Immediately, we were shipped out to Penang for a training and initiation [retreat],” Khoo relates. When the terrorist attacks on the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center in New York occurred, stocks around the world went into freefall. “That was when we realised both of us were calling our brokers to buy stocks,” they say. The two broke the ice and started a conversation. “We realised that we shared a passion for stock investing,” says Khoo, whose face registers a fleeting look of glee as he re-members that encounter.

Since that day, the pair, who clicked immediately, started meeting regularly to share stock ideas. “We then start-ed ploughing tens of thousands of dollars from our savings from part-time jobs into the market,” says Khoo. Even after leaving Arthur Andersen in 2002, they would still meet on a weekly basis. “When he found something interesting,

we would discuss it. We exchanged ideas. Our portfolios had about 80% overlap. We liked similar companies, although the entry and exit points were different,” adds Khoo, who took on the position of assistant director of finance at the Supreme Court of Singapore after leaving Arthur Andersen.

“We used a standard way to track our portfolios. We put in money and we issued units to ourselves like a managed fund. We tracked it for our own information,” says Wong, who became an investment banking consultant at pulp and paper consultancy firm Poyry Forest Industry in 2002.

Within five years, the duo’s equity port-folios had grown to more than $1 million each, making them millionaires before the age of 30. “From 2001 to mid-2007, we turned $1 to $10,” says Wong. Rocky startIn 2007, Khoo and Wong, who decided to become full-time stock investors, quit their jobs and started Lumiere Capital, putting in $1.25 million each as seed money for the Lumiere Value Fund. Together with 30 other investors, who consisted mainly of close friends and relatives, the pair launched their long-only Asian equity fund in October 2007 with an AUM of $5 million.

The timing, however, was unfortunate. Within a few months, the fund was hit with double-digit losses when financial markets around the world were badly affected by the global credit crisis. Buying stocks in a plummeting market in 2H2008 instead of staying in cash led to more underperformance for the Lumiere Value Fund, which ended that year with a whopping loss of 62%. “During the crisis, stocks that we bought became cheaper and cheaper. We were averaging down a bit too early,” reveals Khoo.

Fortunately for Khoo and Wong, their investors stuck by them throughout the entire financial crisis and the pair didn’t experience a wave of heavy redemptions. “Our investors were pretty cool about it and they sort of understood. We made it very clear to them at the beginning that [investing in] our fund would be a five-year thing,” says Khoo. Indeed, had the Lumiere Value Fund experienced huge redemptions like many hedge funds at that time, losses would have been worse. Heavy redemptions, coupled with significant investment losses, forced more than 1,500 hedge funds around the world to shut down in 2008, according to hedge-fund research firms.

The faith shown by their investors was repaid in 2009 and 2010, when the fund rebounded strongly. Following the fund’s stellar performance during those two years, Khoo and Wong have also attracted new investors, including a family office and a few high-net-worth private individuals.

With the Lumiere Value Fund’s AUM growing more than 10 times from $2.9 million at end-2008 to $31 million currently, the partners have decided to hire an operations manager to handle the administrative side of their business. They have also come to the conclusion that they need more space with the new hire and have reluctantly agreed to move to a bigger office of 635 sq ft at the nearby Perkin Street in March.

“We were actually planning on slogging it out in the small workplace we have currently. But as the business grew, we decided to bring in an operations manager and also some interns. Thus, these new business initiatives necessitated a bigger office,” explains Khoo. “And yes, it will have windows,” he says, laughing.

Source/转贴/Extract/: TheedgeSingapore
Publish date:14/02/11

Yangzijiang Strong order momentum (CIMB)

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding
OUTPERFORM Maintained
S$1.90 Target: S$2.69
Strong order momentum

Secured four containership orders

Maintain Outperform and target price of S$2.69, still based on 14x CY12 P/E, in line with regional peers. According to shipbuilding industry newswires, YZJ has secured four 4,800 TEU container vessels from Germany’s Hansa Treuhand. Two of the four are not new orders but upgrades of previous orders for 4,250 TEU vessels to 4,800 TEU vessels. The other two are completely new orders. These vessels are scheduled for delivery by 2013. We estimate the value of the two newbuilds at US$125m or 8% of our US$1.5bn target for this year. We expect YZJ to announce YTD order wins of about US$300m during its 4Q10 results announcement on 22 Feb. No change to our earnings estimates. Stock catalysts are expected from stronger order wins and higher revenue from productivity gains.

The news
Secured quartet of container-vessel contracts from returning customer.

According to shipbuilding industry newswires, YZJ has secured orders for four 4,800 TEU container vessels from returning customer, Hansa Treuhand. Two of the quartet are upgrades of previous orders of 4,250 TUE vessels to larger 4,800 TEU vessels. Delivery is scheduled for 2013.

Comments
Good order momentum. With the current orders representing about 8% of our US$1.5bn target for 2011, we estimate that YZJ could have won about US$300m contracts YTD. Recall that it had begged US$415m new orders in 4Q10 and about US$1.7bn in total in FY10.

Valuation and recommendation
Top pick. Maintain Outperform and target price of S$2.69, still based on 14x CY12 P/E, in line with regional peers. Yangzijiang remains our top pick in the sector and a high-conviction pick given its earnings growth prospects and proven tight execution. Improving productivity from its new yards is expected to sustain its above-industry margins. We also expect the shipyard to benefit from the rebound in containership orders. Stock catalysts are expected from stronger-than-expected order wins and better productivity gains from new yards.

Source/转贴/Extract/:CIMB Research
Publish date:17/02/11

Will an MRT affect the price of your properties?

The Star Online > Business

Thursday February 17, 2011

Will an MRT affect the price of your properties?

Opposing view on impact of MRT. Consultants: Prices of some properties may be adversely affected

BY THEAN LEE CHENG
leecheng@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: While some property consultants and analysts have been bullish on the overall impact of the mass rapid transit (MRT) on property prices, another group of property consultants has reservations about the blanket “price hike” touted by their counterparts and other parties.

This second group of property consultants, together with sources familiar with the project, have an alternative view.

Their conclusion is: not all properties affected by the Sg Buloh-Kajang line will have a positive impact. In fact, there will be properties that will have an adverse impact.

A source who declined to be named said: “If you can hear it, see it, feel the vibration, but cannot access it, your property will be negatively impacted. You want it (MRT) close, but not too close.”

The 50km line that begins from Sg Buloh will splice through the monorail and light rail transit (LRT) in the city and head south towards Kajang, affecting a total 91,900 properties along the way. Of these, 82,700 units, or 90%, will be residential units with a total population of about 341,000. About 40% of these are located in the Sg Buloh-Semantan area, and 46% in the Cheras-Kajang area.

It will be the country's largest infrastructure project, reportedly costing RM36.6bil.

A source said: “Logically speaking, people should not oppose the MRT or any form of public transport. But, if it is going to affect your standard of living, either by the noise, vibration or visual impact, then it is logical for them to oppose it.

“Imagine this: you live in a quiet, serene area for years, and all of a sudden you have the MRT line running in front or behind your property. Your serenity is broken, your standard of living is negatively impacted, and so will the value of your property.”

The noise level will be tremendous. The MRT begins from 6am to midnight. In time to come, the MRT will run every 1.8 minutes.

The affected areas are Section 4 and 6 of Kota Damansara; Pelangi Damansara condominium; Taman Tun Dr Ismail; Damansara Utama; Section 17/52 Petaling Jaya; Bukit Bandaraya; Jalan Bukit Ledang; Bukit Damansara; Taman Desa Aman; Taman Connaught; and Taman Koperasi.

According to the executive summary posted on the Department of Environment website, as the line enters Kota Damansara, which is predominantly residential and remains so until TTDI, the line visual, vibration and noise level will be significant to properties in that area. And as the line enters the residential area of Cheras, the visual impact, noise and vibration level will also impact negatively on the property values there.

“Most of the measured noise levels exceeded the recommended limit for suburban residential area and urban residential area,” the executive summary said.

Reports that property prices would go up by between 100% and 500% were “too bullish”, said the group of property consultants. A property developer who has several projects in Kota Damansara said the visual impact, noise and vibration would affect values negatively.

Last week, the Land Public Transport Commission (LPTC) and Prasarana exhibited the alignment at Mid-Valley Megamall. They are seeking a location in Petaling Jaya to exhibit the alignment.

The MRT route will be displayed for three months at local authority offices in the Klang Valley, in Bangsar LRT station and at LPTC in KL Sentral. The environmental impact assessment will be displayed for one month from Feb 14 to March 14.

Source/转贴/Extract/: The Star Online
Publish date:17/02/11

No logical reason to reject MRT

The Star Online > Business

Thursday February 17, 2011

No logical reason to reject MRT

Making a Point - By Jagdev Singh Sidhu

AS a person who was born, and lives, in Kuala Lumpur, I recall with fond nostalgia how the city used to be.

The memory of an easy pace when traffic was tolerable and the daily temperature much cooler than today brings a smile on my face. As a kid, I could ride my bicycle anywhere. Alas, such simple pleasures are almost elusive for the current generation.

Development has brought many more Malaysians into KL, and green lungs have made way for concrete jungles. To keep up with such developments, the road network has been expanded dramatically and traffic flows oscillated over the years between the rising number of cars and the ever-improving road network.

But I feel the roads in Kuala Lumpur are now reaching their full capacity with traffic jams becoming more intolerable each day.

The solution for this, as it has been for years now, is to improve the public transport system in the Klang Valley. Piecemeal efforts to upgrade the bus system and have a limited light rail transit (LRT) service, which I would say does a burgeoning city like KL an injustice, have not worked as the share of public transport in the Klang Valley out of total transportation usage has fallen over the years.

The executive summary of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), which is on the department of environment's website, states that public transport had seen a decline in its transport share from 34% in 1985 to 18% in 2009 and that populous areas such as Cheras and Damansara are not being served by rail-based systems.

The report goes on to espouse the benefits of mass rapid transit (MRT), and there is no denying the economic and productivity benefits such a system will bring.

The EIA report contained a survey of residents along the Sungai Buloh-to-Kajang route and nearly 88% of the respondents agreed with the MRT being built notwithstanding the concerns it might cause.

The report said 82% of the people surveyed would use the MRT after it was built.

Building the train line will, however, affect quite a number of residents and businesses as the current proposed alignment will lead to homes and businesses having to be compulsorily acquired at market rates. No one likes to be displaced and most people will empathise with those affected.

The best solution is to build the entire network underground. The MRT does not have a lifespan of 20 or 50 years but in excess of 100 years as what London has shown the world.

But if cost is an obstacle that cannot be crossed, then the current suggestion of building the tracks on top of the main arteries will have to do but there will be consequences.

The main one will be noise. The EIA report does indicate noise pollution will increase but it showed the increase is not huge across the board and, at some areas already choked with cars, the added noise is honestly negligible. Furthermore, the noise levels at where the MRT proposes to ply its route currently already exceeds the maximum recommendation with the exception of two areas.

The other will be congestion. There is no doubt that when the MRT is being constructed, the roads affected will be like hell on earth, if it isn't the case already. But it's a short-term pain for long-term gain just like the other road upgrades city folks have endured in the past.

But once completed, the MRT system will ferry people from the population centres to their workplace, thereby allowing people to leave their cars at home.

Having that luxury will also save people money in terms of fuel, parking and wear-and-tear of their vehicles. Another future cost city folks will save on is congestion charges for driving into the city, something that may well see the light of day in the future.

On concerns over increased theft after the MRT is built, I feel most people have overstated that worry. I doubt crooks will be looking at using the MRT for a quick getaway after committing their caper.

Maybe the presence of a large number of foreign workers during the construction stage may cause uneasiness, but that's really no different than foreign workers staying in a house in the neighbourhood where renovation work is ongoing.

People will say that the MRT stations will cause congestion. Looking at the LRT stations in town or the commuter stations elsewhere, I don't think that has been the case and I don't see such fears manifesting itself once the 35 stations along the Sungai Buloh-Kajang route is constructed.

Fear of illegal parking can be swiftly dealt with with a consistent enforcement of existing laws.

People say Malaysians don't really want to walk too far to catch a train or a bus but I feel an efficient MRT system will bring about a change in such attitude. For one, the feeder bus service has to leave no room for disgruntlement and I suggest that operators of the MRT set up parking bays for bicycles. I for one do not mind hopping on a bicycle for a short pedal to and from the MRT station on a daily basis.

On a final note, as a resident of Taman Tun Dr Ismail, I will, after weighing the pros and cons of the arguments being put forward by all parties, welcome the building of an MRT station near my neighbourhood. And I know I am not alone in this.

Deputy news editor Jagdev Singh Sidhu wonders if residents of the Klang Valley will ever get to enjoy using a timetable to plan their daily travel.

Source/转贴/Extract/: The Star Online
Publish date:17/02/11
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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