Saturday, February 12, 2011

《信報視聽頻道》曹仁超:港樓市重遇「非理性上升潮」



Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:31/10/2010

曹仁超x黃婉曼:「理財之道







Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:12/10/2010

Withdrawal of funds continues in full force

Business Times - 12 Feb 2011

Top Stories for Front Page
Withdrawal of funds continues in full force

By R SIVANITHY
SENIOR CORRESPONDENT

THERE'S not a lot we can add to the considerable amount of newsprint that's been devoted to the slide suffered by Asian markets over the past three weeks, which has come in tandem with gains in Western markets.

Last Saturday's column, for example, pointed out the somewhat ironical situation confronting investors in which Wall Street and the West, the sources of much of what ailed the financial world over the past few years, are now the world's 'safe haven' equity markets, while Asia, long touted as the best thing since sliced bread, has rapidly faded from the picture and is clearly not the place to be - at least for now.

According to popular belief, a sudden interest rate hike in China on Tuesday was the culprit for the losses sustained throughout the region, including a 26.12-point plunge for the Straits Times Index to 3,077.27 yesterday, bringing its fall for the week to 134 points or 4.2 per cent.

Liquidity has been generally weak for most for the week at around $1.5 billion per day excluding foreign currency stocks, but it picked up to $2.2 billion each during Thursday's and Friday's sell-off. In yesterday's case, the selling came despite a modest rebound in Hong Kong.

Genting Singapore has consistently been a popular trading stock for many months now and the casino company, which operates Resorts World Sentosa, saw its shares come under pressure after rival Las Vegas Sands released its results which showed a drop in VIP traffic. Although Genting added one cent yesterday at $2.03, it lost 10 cents over the five days or 4.7 per cent.

Local brokers, however, remain unfazed by the selling and see opportunities amidst the weakness. In a Thursday Singapore Strategy report, DMG & Partners said it believed the market could trend sideways, with some downside bias, in the near term.

'Indication of funds pulling out of emerging markets is a negative for the Singapore market. However, we believe the market remains attractive on a 12-month timeframe - our 12-month STI target of 3447, based on sum-of-the-parts, remains unchanged,' said DMG.

Although positive on the tourism and oil and gas sectors, DMG was less positive on banks: 'Although bank stocks have underperformed the market in 2010, we do not see any major catalyst to drive the sector in the short term. Sibor (Singapore Interbank Offered Rate) is expected to remain soft over the next few months, and residential property loan growth is seen to soften in 2011. The 4Q10 spike in government bond yields could also weaken banks' investment and trading income in the coming results.'

Credit Suisse's latest Singapore Market Strategy also focused on tourism as a major theme. 'Largely as expected, the opening of the two integrated resorts provided a significant boost to Singapore's status as a regional tourism hotspot,' said CS.

'The latest figures from the Singapore Tourism Board (STB) shows tourist arrivals jumped 20 per cent to 11.6 million in 2010 ... Looking ahead, the tourism sector is expected to enjoy another strong year, with full-year contributions from the two integrated resorts as well as the scheduled introduction of new attractions and the launch of more premium hotel rooms in 2H11 by Genting Singapore. We expect another 16 per cent growth in tourist arrivals in 2011 and remain bullish on the sector.'


Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:12/02/11

馬股吐氣突飛玄外之音 葉大衛:小心漲潮曇花一現

February 12, 2011 17:32


馬股吐氣突飛玄外之音
葉大衛:小心漲潮曇花一現


每逢年底,有規模或有前瞻性的公司都會與主要職員召開會議,計劃來年的業務發展大藍圖、鎖定目標、設定銷售量。
股民又是否已為兔年做好準備功夫了呢?有否為12個月計劃或設定將要達到的目標?

“辛卯”兔年會是怎樣的一年?是寒、是暖?投資者對來年知多些,可展望未來,掌握機會、未雨綢繆、防範未然。

不論是否在虎年有所斬獲,步入新的一年,大家總是滿心期望未來的日子將過得更美好。
玄學投資大師葉大衛,在去年預測虎年馬股會帶來萬象更新,春回大地的景象,“臥虎藏牛”的一年。

今年他預測,外圍仍然是多災多難,比較寒冷,多雨水的一年,小心曇花一現的現象!


葉大衛利用天盤,推算出馬股今年會有許多曇花一現的現象。
機會把握得好的投資者,虎年可是個豐收的大好年,過得特別忙碌與快速,對一些準備功夫做不足的股友,還沒來得及看清楚大市,一轉眼便進入兔年。

眼明手快,就有斬獲;反應遲鈍,寄望來年。

連續3年唯一接受《中國報》專訪的葉大衛,以“兔”氣揚眉,和“兔”飛猛進,形容兔年的馬股,並測出今年的數字密碼是3、6、9!

他解釋說,投資者勿盲目跟風,要懂得詮釋眼前的每一個漲、跌勢,“吐”氣揚眉是“好話”,反過來卻可以解讀為,馬股的漲潮是一口“吐氣”,虛有,不實際,投資者掌握不到、捉不到、拿不到。

“突”飛猛進也同樣,股市“突然”飛高,是不持久,也支撐不久,就如一年輕人突然爆富,之后並不懂得如何守財。

吐氣揚眉和突飛猛進,都在告訴投資者,馬股今年存有曇花一現格局,這樣的漲勢,投資者要特別小心,市場會突然套利。

07年股災不重演

不過,葉大衛派定心丸,認為今年不會爆發07年及08年般的股災,不在討論範圍,一般的調整都是健康。

他補充,若投資者有跟隨他的“測盤”,在去年11月初進貨,今年初的吐氣揚眉之時便是出貨的時機。

馬股甫踏入2011年,連續5個交易日創歷史新高,股市熱到爆。


3月、6月、9月 最敏感變盤月

投資者要小心3月、6月、9月的變盤。
利用獨創的“東方訣數”推算出,葉大衛說,今年的數字密碼是3、6、9。

“3月、6月、9月是全年最敏感和變盤的月份。以股市週期分析,我國最有可能在3月全國大選。”

“當宣佈了大選,馬股2月初或衝高,月尾料遭套利影響滑落,3月見低點,隨后4月、5月和6月再回揚。”

他點出,3月最有可能變盤的週期是7日至10日,及20日至23日;6月則是月底或7月初;9月是月初,回顧10年前,正是發生美國911恐怖襲擊事件的時間。

簡單來說,若3月、6月、9月股市攀高點,投資者要小心套利;如果是走低,是進場機會。


東方訣數 掌握全球股匯訊息

黃金價格今年料繼續瘋狂飆升。
葉大衛自創的“東方訣數”,經過數年的發展,現已電腦化。

他說,投資者可以無需使用天盤,只要在電腦安裝“東方訣數”軟體,便可掌握全球股市、匯市、期貨的走勢和信息。

“軟體版去年12月推出,首100套的推介價格為988令吉,原價2588令吉。”

他指出,以前都是通過論壇與學員分享市場即時訊息和交流,現在一切的互動都會置放在軟體,不純粹是技術分析系統,而是一個線上雜誌,集熱股分析、市場快訊、買賣訊號、交流平台等一體。

系統全方位,協助投資者更能掌握市場資訊,每日閉市后可下載股票報價等相關數據。

葉大衛說,新研發的“東方訣數”軟體,全世界通用,現已引進最熱門的股票市場,包括香港、台灣、中國和新加坡,接著會納入耶加達、泰國、澳洲和紐西蘭的股市數據。

“東方訣數”是一套全面投資技術,涵蓋“密碼”、“實戰”、“管理”和“修為”四大層面。


外面風雨大 考驗膽識
外圍環境多災害,也是考驗投資者進場的膽量。

葉大衛說,股市起落是人為。舉例去年韓國朝鮮軍事衝突,即時打亂股市陣腳,投資信心受損。

每當遇到類似的“人為”和“負面”事件,投資者要反向消化,能夠在最快時間準確解讀負面新聞和消息,是比任何一套預測系統發出的訊號更有用。

他指出,投資市場永遠不讓投資者以最便宜、最安心的心態進場,往往是帶著懷疑的境況謹慎入市。

“對股市有深層了解的投資者,一定會發現,偏偏在最壞消息發放時,就是股價處最低位,這是股市投資背后的潛在規則。”

反向消化利淡

“要敢于反向消化壞消息,才能夠在股海吃得開,所謂壞消息就是好新聞,好消息就是壞新聞(Bad News is Good News,Good News is Bad News)。”

他舉例,IOI集團(IOICORP,1961,主要板種植)傳出外匯虧損時,公司股價寫歷史低點。馬銀行(MAYBANK,1155,主要板金融)被印尼收購案纏身,亦是股價最低位之時。

如今,這兩家公司股價如日中天,與入市黃金機會擦身而過的投資者,想要歷史重演,中短期根本是妙想天開。

葉大衛說,股市投資並不難,猶如平常生活。大多消費者在商品大減價時掃貨,但轉個角度變投資者時,卻不敢在股價下殺時買股。


金價 料續瘋狂至2012年
上帝要你滅亡必先讓你瘋狂,黃金價格料瘋狂至2012年。

國際金價連環漲多時,目前的價格已衝破每安士1300美元(約3965令吉),葉大衛說:“黃金已處泡沫週期,是否爆破,2012年最關鍵。”

他說,上帝要你滅亡必先讓你瘋狂,金價今年會繼續瘋癲,很可能會在1400美元(約4270令吉)和1600美元(約4880令吉)間波動。

“因此今年一路上漲,並不出奇。”

國內最大金飾商寶光(POHKONG,5080,主要板消費)預計,國際金價今年內上看每安士1500美元(約4575令吉),金價波動雖大,無損消費者對黃金的興致。


最大可能大選月: 3月、9月、10月
全國大選或3月和9月。

葉大衛指出,股市週期分析出,全國大選最大可能落在3月份,若政府放棄首半年的好機會,下半年會是在9月或10月。

“大選跑不掉這3個月份。”

無論州選或全國大選,選前漲潮向來利及馬股走勢,富馬隆綜指通常在大選前的12個月上漲5%,選后更激增17%,但巫統改選漲潮更大,選前1年激增30%,選后12個月內卻跌7%。


歐美找替死鬼 亞洲勿上當買單
別上歐洲、美國的當!

經全球金融風暴洗禮后,歐美的經濟復甦路不平淡,政府單位紛紛發出負面消息,媒體也不間斷地報導該地區的慘況。

葉大衛就此回應說:“這是陷阱,亞洲不要上當。”

他指出,歐美偽裝出楚楚可憐,美國更利用印鈔票方式救市,其實,這是高級的桿槓理論之一,目的是要亞洲買單,做替死鬼,成為代罪羔羊。

“歐美出事后,亞洲被吹捧為將取代美國,特別是中國,沾沾自喜,貨幣節節開高,其實不然。

“表面上,亞洲可取代,但其實是好幾代都難實現的目標。美國是資本家起家,用了超過100年建立王朝,中國則是共產國,尚需時間加把勁。”


懶惰又謹慎最好買成分股
保守的投資者,最直接了當的投資法,是從30隻成分股中挑目標,永遠是最安全。

玄學家提醒投資者,股神巴菲特兜兜轉轉,最后買進的依然是寶僑公司(P&G)、可口可樂(Coca-Cola)這類成分股,說明股市投資可以很簡單,只要鎖定成分股中的最愛即可。

“懶惰分析和謹慎的投資者,投資成分股是最穩當,其中,今年以金融、博彩、房地產和種植股表現最紅。”

投資成分股,永遠不會錯,即使報跌,只要給予時間,始終會開花結果。

葉大衛說,二三線股雖然回酬較樂觀,但風險隨之提升,除非投資者有很準確的消息來源,很強的技術分析做后盾。


令吉兌美元 最高峰2.80

令吉最高上攀至2.80。
“東方訣數”測算出,令吉兌美元今年頂多觸及2.80,若要恢復當年勇敲響2.10或2.50,略顯不實際。

葉大衛說,令吉匯價如果升至3.0,升勢基本已到邊緣,最多硬撐至2.80或2.90。

“如果要回到孰馬哈迪執政年代的2.10或2.50高峰,相信今年不可能發生,要漲至如此高的水平,首先必須打破障礙重重的2.80關卡,否則免談。”

去年,令吉兌美元升值約10%,一度在去年9月29日升至3.081。今年1月進一步走挺至3.05,要攀及3.0指日可待。

Source/转贴/Extract/:中國報
Publish date:12/02/11

持股率不高政府紧密关注 外资外撤料影响马股不大

2011/02/12 10:36:45 AM
●南洋商报 报道:周汉文

(吉隆坡11日讯)外资的流向不仅造成股市大幅波动,同时也将掀起骨牌效应,不过,分析员预计,鉴于外资的持股率不高,并且在政府紧密关注市场动向及各项风险管理措施下,料不会对资本市场引起极大的冲击。

分析员指出,我国庞大的储备金、健全的金融政策、强稳的本地金融市场,以及审慎的宏观政策,将就外资流出提供强大的缓冲。

联昌国际研究分析员在一份报告称,美国次贷危机爆发以来,大量资金已涌进新兴市场经济体系,我国也不例外,并在2009年7月至2010年9月期间,外资净流入总值达639亿令吉。

外资仅占22%

目前,我国市场最大的挑战,就是管理该批资金的规模和资本流动的波动,以及对本地经济的影响。

分析员表示,根据马股走势记录,1993年至1994年期间,鉴于大量资金涌进我国,并且在国行采取各项措施应对外资流进下,外资逆转促使股市大幅波动。

马股更在1998年暴跌64.8%至262.70点,创下10年以来的最低水平。

然而,分析员指出,2008年大选后,外资已逐渐从马股撤资,虽近期来各国央行大举祭出量化宽松政策,促使大量资金涌向新兴市场,但外资如今的持股权依然低于风暴前的水平。

全球撤资350亿

根据大马交易所的数据,如今外资的持股权仅有21.9%,仍低于全球金融风暴前约27.0%水平。

同时,分析员相信,相关单位增强监管措施,以及健全的内部监控和风险管理,也有助缓和外资流出的影响。

此外,瑞士信贷指出,过去3周以来,全球已从新兴市场撤出总值115亿美元(350亿7500万令吉)资金,且将近一半来自中国和巴西。

瑞士信贷称,该批资金的撤出,已远远超越2010年首两个月的48亿5000万美元(147亿9250万令吉),以及在2010年5月股市出现调整的50亿美元(152亿5000万令吉)。

冲击货币信贷政策 物价 银行

联昌国际研究表示,外资流向也将对我国的货币与信贷政策、物价、资产市场、银行体系、外汇和债券市场带来冲击。

分析员称,当大量的外资不断涌进我国,可能促使本地需求提高,并且导致通胀压力高涨。

亚洲金融风暴前,强劲的外资持续流进大马,使我国在1995年至1997年期间,货币每年以20.7%幅度强劲升值,信贷增长更达27.9%。

尽管本地经济前景料将稳定增长,但国行已在2010年3月开始正常化利率水平,以避免金融失衡。

至于外资涌进也引发市场担忧本地经济过热,并且可从资产价格膨胀以及需求推动通胀中窥探一二。

金融产业不稳定

然而,分析员指出,截至目前,并无任何迹象显示,在近年来资金不断涌入之下已出现通胀压力与资产泡沫现象。

“同样的,外资流向也将造成资产市场特别是金融和产业市场的不稳定。”

分析员表示,热钱将导致资本市场价格波动,远远超越基本面盈利,并推高资产价位至不可持续的水平,而目前的家庭债务水平也已呈增长趋势。

不过,我国银行体系如今的信贷对国内生产总值比率,已从1996年至1998年的138.0%,改善至106.2%,促使该领域不易受到外资流出的冲击。

强劲外储稳定令吉

汇率方面,分析员指出,一旦外资大量撤离我国市场,仍可在强劲的外汇储备金支撑以及政府偶尔干预市场举措之下,将促使令吉走势维持稳定。

但是,外资流出将造成国债券市场首当其冲。

根据过去数据显示,2008年爆发次贷危机时,资金净流出已导致该市场在短期内受到冲击。

尽管如此,分析员强调,综合我国现有的储备金、各项政策以及强稳的金融市场,料外资流出不会对我国经济带来极大的影响。


Source/转贴/Extract/: 南洋商报
Publish date:12/02/11

Ascendas India Trust rated 'buy' by Citi

Citi Investment Research in a Jan 27 research report says: "While revenue was up 4% in INR terms due to higher maintenance/operations income, growth was flat in S$ terms, as a result of currency (Rs 33.3 vs Rs 34.5/SGD in Q3Fy10).

"Operating margins were adversely impacted (down 460bps q-o-q), primarily on account of higher utility expenses – a retrospective increase in electricity tariffs in Bangalore property, resulting in a $1.1 million one-off. Also, upside from lower effective tax rate q-o-q was set off by higher interest costs in Q3. DPU payout was marginally up at 1.72 cents in 3Q-FY11 which, when annualised, offers a healthy near-term yield of ~7%.

"Our $1.18 target price is based on a DDM-based value of 99 cents per unit and ascribing 19 cents per unit towards the 24-acre land bank held by the trust for future development. We believe this should provide a 12-mth yield of ~8%. MAINTAIN BUY."



Source/转贴/Extract/: www.theedgesingapore.com
Publish date:02/02/11

金管局:让新元温和升值 政策恰当暂无需改变

(2011-02-12)
新加坡金融管理局局长王瑞杰表示,金管局让新元汇率温和逐步升值的立场依然恰当,在4月份发表货币政策声明之前没有改变的需要。

  财经杂志《银行家》(The Banker)昨天颁发“亚太区最佳中央银行行长”的奖状给王瑞杰。他在颁奖仪式过后回答记者提问时说:“我们在去年10月采纳的政策立场仍然适当。”

  金管局在去年两度收紧货币政策,先是在4月以“双管齐下”的方式大幅收紧货币政策,除了将新元名义有效汇率(S$NEER)的可波动范围的轴心点向上调整,一次过让新元增值之外,也改变之前所采纳的中立立场,让新元汇率逐步稳健上升。

  去年10月,金管局进一步收紧货币政策,让新元汇率加快上升,在让新元名义有效汇率适度和逐渐上升政策的同时,还增加了可波动范围的斜度和宽度。

  财政部第二部长陈惠华日前表示,政府正密切留意通货膨胀对生活费上涨的影响程度,如有必要将让新元进一步升值,以纾缓物价上涨对民众所造成的冲击。

  王瑞杰昨天重申了金管局对通货膨胀的预期,基于低基数效应,未来几个月的通胀率将继续偏高,这预料在下半年缓和。
  金管局上个月表示
,将观察物价的走势,并在下个星期四的经济数据出炉时,宣布是否会对通货膨胀预测作出调整;金管局目前对今年全年通胀率的预测是介于2%到3%。

  统计局上个月公布的数据显示,在交通、住房成本及食品价格提高的推动下,我国去年12月份的通货膨胀率创下两年来的最高纪录,达到4.6%。

  另一方面,王瑞杰昨天获奖后在致谢词中提到,在区域需求的带动下,新加坡今年的经济预料以4%到6%之间的速度增长,“然而,前面的道路依旧充满挑战。”

由于不同经济体的复苏情况不一,先进经济体的表现与新兴经济体有明显落差,造成大量资本流入亚洲,不过最近几周,美国公布乐观的数据,促使一些资金回流美国市场。王瑞杰表示,越来越多变化的环境,意味着金融市场未来几个月内将继续波动,“我们需要做好准备以应付这个波动。”

  此外,他也指出,各经济体的储蓄与投资模式有显著差异,为了维持全球经济增长,全球的储蓄与投资格局有必要改变,而这需要主要经济体在政策上协调,全球也要在监管上合作并改革,解决在危机中发现的弱点。

Source/转贴/Extract/: 《联合早报》
Publish date:12/02/11

亚洲股市仍有上升空间 RBS为新加坡股市“加磅”

(2011-02-12)
目前亚洲股市的波动只是短期盘整,过后仍有上升空间。

  苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)亚洲战略主管沃尔特(Emil Wolter)指出,未来12至18个月,亚洲股市预料还有15%至30%的上升空间,并给予新加坡市场“加磅”评级。

  自农历新年过后,本地和区域股市连连下跌,海指在昨日跌破3100点,本地的蓝筹股更是跌幅显著。有报道指过去一个星期,有超过70亿美元的资金从新兴市场流出,造成亚洲股市全线下滑。

  不过,沃尔特却认为,近期股市的调整是为了套利,亚洲的基本面仍然很稳健,股票市场正处在上行过程中,虽然泡沫正在形成,但目前还没有出现。

  他表示,虽然无法确定这一轮的调整要持续到什么时候,但市场若想要重新上涨,首先要扭转对西方市场价值过低的想法,同时亚洲央行的货币政策也应该与通胀预期同步,否则投资者会担心有更加严厉的政策出台以抑制通货膨胀。

低贷成本时期已过
  面对不断攀高的通货膨胀压力,中国中央银行日前再度加息,把一年期贷款利率提高至6.06%;不过韩国中央银行昨日却一反市场的预期,没有调高息率。

  沃尔特认为,低贷款成本的时期已经过去,过去一年里一些小市值股票、负债较高的公司股票表现抢眼,但接下来将轮到大市值股票表演,市场方面也更看好规模较大的股票市场,如中国、台湾。

  从流动资金充沛的角度考虑,苏格兰皇家银行看好软商品、能源和区域房地产股票;若考虑结构和基本面的优势,该机构青睐于电信公司、信息技术股。

沃尔特尤其看好石油、海事类股。与铜、铝等其他基本金属商品不同的是,美国的经济复苏并不会直接扩大对基本金属的需求,但石油的消耗则会攀升。

  对于本地市场,沃尔特认为新加坡股市价格依然合理,看好电信股和钻油台建造公司的表现。未来一年到一年半,相信新加坡股市将有超过20%的上升空间。

  星展唯高达在其报告中指出,这个星期海指直落100多点,蓝筹股的跌幅更是首当其冲。不过考虑到预算案将在下个星期五公布,海指应该可以找到暂时的支撑点,但短期内的波动性仍将会很大。

  辉立证券认为,目前的宏观经济环境对各地股市都有利,只有固定收入投资处于劣势。对于本地股市来说,公司的盈利会持续攀高,维持之前对海指的预估,2011年预计股市涨幅可达9.6%。

Source/转贴/Extract/: 《联合早报》
Publish date:12/02/11

Friday, February 11, 2011

外資續套現馬股失守1500點趁低累積優質股避外資股

February 11, 2011 21:36

外資續套現馬股失守1500點
趁低累積優質股避外資股

報導:邱佩勛
(吉隆坡11日訊)銀行股與種植股領跌,馬股市在早盤跌破1500點心理關卡,盤中最低跌至1490.44點!券商建議,投資者可趁低累積優質股,但應避開外資持股比重高的股項。

分析員指出,避險基金展開利差交易平倉(carry trade unwinding),是外資在亞太區大幅拋售的主因。
那些已在本區域獲利的外資,從去年底開始撤資回歐美,也是亞太股市重挫的導因。

外圍利空環繞不散,加上升息隱憂、原棕油價格漲勢或將告一段落等因素,更加劇大盤跌勢。
但分析界認為,這也是趁低買入優質股的時機。

馬銀行投銀分析員黃秋嫻認為,投資者可趁大盤弱勢,累積基本面佳的股項。

“至于近期外資持股比重增加的股項,則應該避開。”

保留現金
僑豐投資研究董事兼研究主管吳保雲指出,由于馬股上行和下行的可能性幾乎持平,建議投資者趁低買入。
考量我國經濟成長前景,僑豐投資研究維持1648點的富馬隆綜指合理水平。

從技術分析而言,僑豐投資研究短期看跌富馬隆綜指,一旦指數跌破1500點心理關卡,即時揚升阻力點將落在1505點。

馬銀行投銀預計,富馬隆綜指在跌破1500點后,下一道關鍵支撐點將落在1474點。“我們建議散戶趁高套現,並保留更多現金或抗跌股。”

該行預測,富馬隆綜指今年底目標水平為1710點。

棕油價漲潮近尾種植股領跌
券商看淡原棕油價格漲勢,加上投資者套利,絕大部分種植股項皆應聲下跌。

其中,尤以吉隆坡甲洞(KLK,2445,主要板種植)、峇都加灣(BKAWAN,1899,主要板種植)和IOI集團(IOICORP,1961,主要板種植)等重量級種植股跌幅最大!

瑞士信貸(Credit Suisse)指出,棕油價格一再飆高可能打擊需求,大馬棕油價漲潮或接近尾聲。

瑞信一名分析員指出,在2008年原產品價格高峰期,棕油價格只有兩天是走高在每公噸4000令吉以上。
分析員也說,目前外資參與度處于新高的棕油期貨,正面對套利風險。

根據大馬棕油局(MPOB)數據,1月份棕油產量按年跌19.8%,因大雨推低產量,並嚴重影響回酬。

ECM證券研究預期,低產量週期料延續至3月,但今年次季產量有望回揚。

馬股一週總市值失224億

區域國家升息效應開始發酵,加上海外基金撤資回歐美,I馬隆綜指在一週內回吐37.3點,相等于2.4%跌幅,馬股總市值一週內更蒸發近224億令吉!

富馬隆綜指今日收在1494.52點,比起上週三最后一個交易日的1531.82點,下跌37.3點。

馬股總市值也從上週最后一個交易日的1兆2968億8000萬令吉,減少223億6500萬令吉,至1兆2745億令吉。
比較昨日,馬股市值在一天內再流失98億令吉!

此外,馬股去年最后一個交易日的總市值約1兆2753億令吉,如今總市值跌至1兆2745億令吉,可說是悉數回吐今年的新春漲幅。

富馬隆綜指挫9點
富馬隆綜指在國內外利空籠罩下,今早雖揚2.92點,以1506.91點開市,但仍不敵賣壓慘陷跌勢,並在開市近16分鐘后跌至1499點水平,失守1500點!

截至早盤結束,在41隻主要板金融股當中,只有5隻股走高,下跌的金融股高達24隻,比重達58.5%。

主要板44隻種植股當中,就有28隻股陷跌勢,比重逾63.6%,僅4隻股處于揚勢。

休市時,富馬隆綜指跌6.59點,報1497.40點,寫下去年12月以來盤中最低水平,上升股134隻,下跌股高達621隻,半日有8億6089萬5100股易手。

閉市時,富馬隆綜指報1494.52點,挫9.47點,上升股206隻,下跌股635隻,成交量16億7986萬6800股。

外資本週淨賣家
馬銀行投銀分析員黃秋嫻指出,初步數據顯示,外資在本週轉為淨賣家,淨脫售總額達11億8000萬令吉。

她指出,以2010年初至今累積的160億令吉外資淨買入推算,馬股可能維持疲弱一段時間。

數據顯示,馬股的日均成交值在1月份激增至26億7000萬令吉,為2007年4月以來最高水平。

不過,外資在1月份的淨買入收窄至1億令吉,對比去年12月份為26億令吉。

富馬隆綜指昨日重挫逾32點或2.1%,今年至今的跌幅為1%,對比區域股市如新加坡(跌2.7%)、泰國(挫7.9%)和印尼(挫8.9%)跌幅,表現“相對”跑贏大市。

氣候續惡劣
棕油價上看3500
興業證券研究維持今明兩年的原棕油價格預測,即每公噸棕油價今年可達3100令吉,明年料達2900令吉,前提是氣候正常化和下半年棕油產量恢復正常。

“若拉尼娜現象(La Nina)持續,原棕油價格可能在今年走高到3500令吉以上。”


該行維持種植領域的“增持”評級。

基于棕油供應少于預期,聯昌證券研究上修今年棕油價格預測至3200令吉,明年為2900令吉。

由于大部分種植股項表現已跑贏馬股,該行下修區域種植領域的投資評級,從“短線買入”下修至“中立”。
再者,棕油現貨價格高于預期且接近最高水平,下半年可能止漲往南挫,及種植業估值與市場本益比一致,也是該行下修評級的另兩個原因。

黃氏星展維克斯證券研究指出,包括大豆油和玉米在內的食用油供應短缺,以及美元弱勢,是棕油價走高的兩大原因。

該行說,全球食用油需求上揚,但大豆供應成長緩慢,將支撐棕油價走勢,今年下半年料返回2500至3000令吉正常水平。


Source/转贴/Extract/: 中國報
Publish date:11/02/11

Don’t panic: Between unlikely hard landings, earnings, and yield curves, it’s an intermediate correction in Asia.

Don’t panic: Between unlikely hard landings, earnings, and yield curves, it’s an intermediate correction in Asia.

Summary:
− Macro conditions for the STI continues to be conducive to earnings and we maintain our outlook for the STI to reach 3650 by 4Q11 (see Strategy 15th Dec10). China has enacted its 3rd rate hike, which economically speaking is (1) good for China’s rebalancing (2) good for ASEAN exports. Asian equities however are selling for fear of a Chinese hard landing which we think is unlikely. Chinese indices have as well exhibited positive price action post-hike. Over in the US, the overall picture is one of recovering final demand, reflected in final sales to GDP, and a job recovery which has bright sparks in it despite weak headline numbers, the irony of which has resulted in weakness in Asia as portfolios reduce Asia on inflation risk, and increase US as the macro picture there is cleaner. The overall macro picture, we reiterate, is conducive to stocks, Asia or US, and the real loser is actually fixed income. Overall, Phillip Securities Research forecasts 9.6% earnings growth for 2011, raised from 8%, along with mid-cycle P/E expansion to drive the STI to 3650 by 4Q11.

• China raised its benchmark 1yr lending and deposit rates by 25bp each to 6.06% and 3% respectively. In line with what we believe is a normalization of policy rather than to “cool an overheating economy” as some commonly believe. Core-inflation (ex-food and energy), which is still moderate, has to run out of control for over-heating to be an issue. Headline CPI as we have written before has been driven mainly by food. Chiefly, we believe the urgency for policy normalization is to guard against a real estate bubble, the real risk to the economy, and we expect headline CPI to come off sequentially after CNY as it usually does

• Economically speaking, a rate hike, from a trade perspective, is good for regional growth, and good for SG stocks. It would aid Rmb appreciation which would in turn help in the rebalancing of the Chinese economy from investment-exports to consumption-imports, as this would raise Chinese purchasing power and make imports cheaper. Of this ASEAN would be a key beneficiary given its trade surplus with China (deficit with ASEAN), which at last count was still 22% below pre-crisis levels – plenty upside to go.

• So why are Asian markets selling on the news, STI included? Markets generally believe that the PBOC has been behind the curve in fighting inflation, and has been too timid in their rate hikes, being afraid that high interest rates would attract huge capital inflows, making it hard to control a policy of the Rmb’s stable appreciation (as opposed to
sudden). Now that the Chinese authorities have clearly got to accept some of that Rmb “instability” in order to fight inflation, markets believe that hikes will from here on now be rapid and front-loaded, thus increasing the risk of an economic hard-landing which would reverberate throughout the region. How likely is this? We think a front loading of rate hikes is almost a certainty, but taken into context that we are moving from a position of loose to normal, in the context of a high growth economy which can more than afford further tightening risk, makes the probability of a hard landing not a big one.

• Chinese stocks in particular have already priced in this economic hard landing weeks ago as valuations are hovering near trough. Thus we think it will get this wrong once again like it did 3Q10, which could lead to another explosive rally, especially if inflation starts to tame post CNY like we think it will. We thus continue to believe that Chinese stocks will head higher as the year progresses. The call to action is however only for investors with a clear and long horizon, with a strong mindset to buy when others are fearful as valuations are at giveaway . This is not one to try and time, and traders on the long-side could be frustrated. We have pointed out before that Chinese stocks, just like in any other country, tends to rise on rate hikes as fears of hard landings prove unfounded, already Chinese stocks have rallied as we write, erasing loses on the initial news , could this time be any different? We doubt it. (The short-term outlook for the STI on the other hand still looks bearish, according to our TA, and the time to re-enter is not yet upon us.)

• US non-farm payrolls showed a tepid 36k gained, missing consensus by over a 110k. The fact that the S&P500 didn’t sell is because the innards of the data are quite encouraging. A whopping 49k jobs from manufacturing! Nobody saw that out-performance, at a time when Services are expected to lead the job gains. Jobs created by Services for the record was rather weak at 32k, but this we reckon is probably not a trend setting data point in the context of improving data across the board – ISM non-Mfg, Mfg, Housing, Incomes, Consumption – you name it, just scan of US econ table on Pg 6 and you’ll know what we mean. So what detracted from the headline figure? Govt lost 14k and Construction lost 32k jobs. The construction loss can be put down to two very reasonable things: recent heavy snow halts builders temporarily, in which case expect a rebound, and secondly, we have come off a housing bubble, so why should this sector do anything but downsize? Other tellingly good data include the “quit rate” going up – meaning people are confident enough to quit for something else , and the number of part-timers turning decisively down. Overall, private sector job creation in our opinion looks to be in the right direction at least, and if not “good” then is still not the kind of data to go bearish on US stocks.

• Earnings, Earnings, Earnings, is ultimately what drives stocks. And S&P500 4Q10 earnings have come in so far at $20.18, again beating estimates of $17.89, quite decisively by about 13%. 2011 full year estimates have been revised up from $86.84 to S$87.46 per share, which targets the S&P500 at 1450 on 16.5x P/E, the 10yr cyclically adjusted valuation. Revenue has once again lagged earnings growth, 7.7%y-y versus 32.9%y-y. 4Q10 GDP data, however, tells us that final demand is coming back, and so this year could be about sales growth. Ex-inventories (see table, Pg 6), 4Q GDP grew 7.1%q-q, up from what has been 3 straight quarters of ~1%q-q growth in final sales! Data showed out-performance from consumption, exports and a huge drop in imports, offsetting a drag from inventories. Business investment demand was relatively disappointing but we note that core new orders for capex is still trending up and most of the drag is from volatile aircraft orders

• So if the US is doing well, why is Asia so weak? The irony of this is that global funds are chasing the laggard returns, the US, which is taking off from a soft mid-2010 patch, while Asian equities, having had a solid run are now facing its first headwinds - inflation. We identified in Strategy 15th Dec10 that inflation is a key risk to Asian stocks, but while some countries (Indonesia, China, Philippines) are perceived to be behind the curve on raising interest rates, this has not been the general case, most Asian central banks have done quite a few rounds already. India and Indonesia have joined in with the rate hikes. As such, if you believe central banks are not too far behind the curve, and that high growth Asian economies have some fat in them to withstand front-loading of rate-hikes, there will be no hard landing, and then the money will come back once US stocks have exhausted their run.

• Actually, the real loser in all this is bonds. US treasuries are being dumped at the moment for a better inflation-growth hedge, which is US stocks, and the long dated are being axed more than the short-dated as inflation does more damage to bond returns further out, widening the famous yield curve . As growth continues and inflation is
taken as given, the short dated will be sold more furiously for stocks, pushing the bull-run along (red box, Fig.7), narrowing the curve. This relationship can also be observed between the STI and S’pore Govt Securities during the last bull-run as well. As it stands, the SGS yield curve has widened some more as long dated fall more out of favour in an inflation context, this money will then be cycled into better inflation hedgers like stocks. Eventually if growth continues and inflation persists, the short-dated will be sold more vigorously as well for stocks. Both bond markets are therefore signaling a continued bull-run, short-term weakness notwithstanding.

• On the earnings front for the STI, 4Q10 results have mostly been in line with consensus expectations, with 4 beating consensus expectations (Singtel, SIA, CapMall REIT, KeppelCorp), 2 met expectations (SPH, SMRT) and 2 came in below (SIAEC, SGX). Still, too few component stocks have reported to pass a comment. If anything since our 15th Dec report, 2011 earnings expectations have actually been revised higher by PSR analysts to forecast 9.6% earnings growth for 2011, up from our previous 8%. Bloomberg consensus expectations have remained largely unchanged for 2011. Between unlikely hard landings, earnings upgrades, and yield curves, it’s still not the stuff of bear markets. We maintain our STI target for the year to grind higher to 3650 by 4Q11 on earnings growth, and mid-cycle P/E expansion


Source/转贴/Extract/:Phillip Securities Research
Publish date:11/02/11

Golden Agri (phillip)

Golden Agri-Resources Ltd
Hold (Maintained)
Closing Price S$0.715
Target Price S$0.74 (+3.5%)
52w k High (1/4/2011) 0.83
52w k Low (5/25/2010) 0.48

• GGR moving forward with some positive development on the green front
• Keeping all our production and earnings estimates at the moment. Expect earnings of upstream plantation companies to register stronger profit margins and earnings in 4Q10, due to high CPO prices sustained in the quarter.
• However our valuation model indicates that GGR is fairly valued, and hence we maintain our Hold recommendation on the stock with a target price of S$0.74.

Some positive developments are taking place for Golden Agri-Resources Limited (GGR) as it announced on Wednesday its collaboration with the Government of Indonesia and Genevabased non profit organization, The Forest Trust (TFT), in finding solution towards forest conservation.

A Forest Conservation Policy (FCP) has been developed by GGR and the main gist of the FCP is to have no development on High Carbon Stock (HCS) forests, High Conservation Value (HCV) forest areas and peat lands, to have respect for indigenous and local communities and to be in compliance with all relevant laws and Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) Principles and Criteria.

Recall that sometime last year, Greenpeace had aggressively campaigned against GGR, claiming that the palm oil company has illegally cleared HCV forests, planted on peat lands and hence endangering the Orang Utans and biodiversity. These allegations have subsequently caused contract cancellations from Unilever, Nestle and Burger King. GGR then engaged two independent bodies, CUC and BSI to conduct an independent verification exercise (IVEX), still then interpretation and conclusions of the IVEX findings clashed between different parties. We are glad that after all the finger-pointing, we are finally seeing some constructive developments coming out of that episode.

According to TFT’s executive director, Scott Poynton the agreement will go into immediate effect and the fieldwork will take about six months in the first half of 2011. TFT’s role in the partnership is to guide and ensure that plantations are not developed at the expense of carbon rich forests. Moving forward, TFT will conduct fieldworks primarily in GGR’s West and Central Kalimantan plantations, zoning out areas suitable for planting from areas which needs to be conserved. A provisional definition of exceeding 35 tonnes of carbon per ha (35tC/ha) will be used as HCS forest definition.

The move has also gotten the support of Greenpeace, the NGO stated that it will give GGR time to act on its new policy. Meanwhile it will halt its aggressive campaigns against the Group but will keep a close watch as the process moves ahead. Indonesia’s Vice Minister of Trade also gives its support, stating that Indonesia will strive to be the best in the palm oil sector and adopt sustainable business practices moving forward.

We are glad that GGR has taken the lead to conserve forests and no doubt the move will improve the reputation of the palm oil company. As to whether GGR will see a resumption of contracts from its previous buyers, we believe only time will tell, and the implementation of this policy is more critical. We are overall positive as we see GGR’s seriousness and commitment to this issue. This has also given a clearer direction for the palm oil industry to move forward as a whole, to remain profitable yet responsible to our Earth.

Valuation and Recommendation
We are keeping all our production and earnings estimates at the moment. We expect earnings of upstream plantation companies to register stronger profit margins and earnings in 4Q10, due to high CPO prices sustained in the quarter. However our valuation model indicates that GGR is fairly valued, and hence we maintain our Hold recommendation on the stock with a target price of S$0.74.


Source/转贴/Extract/: Phillip Securities Research
Publish date:11/02/11

Frasers Commercial Trust Unit consolidation a positive (OCBC)

Frasers Commercial Trust
Maintain BUY
Current Price: S$0.85
Fair Value: S$0.92

Unit consolidation a positive; Maintain BUY

Unit Consolidation. Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) commenced trading its 5:1 consolidated units on 8 Feb (Tue), with an opening price of S$0.855 and then closed 1.2% higher at S$0.8651; market appears to have welcomed the unit consolidation move favorably. Its trading volume that day was 2.21m shares, compared to its average daily volume of 1.28m shares (adjusted for unit consolidation) since its IPO on 30 Mar 2006. Recall that the rationale for the unit consolidation cited by FCOT was (1) improve the market perception and attractiveness of FCOT and its units & (2) reduce the magnitude of volatility of FCOT's unit trading price and market capitalization due to the minimum bid and ask spread. We think management is heading the right direction with the unit consolidation, which will spur liquidity2 as well as generate more interest, particularly amongst institutional investors and fund managers in our opinion. It will also provide more scope for subsequent equity fund raising for acquisitions or asset enhancement initiatives.

Australian Wholesale Property Fund (AWPF). FCOT successfully divested Cosmo Plaza (Japan) on 18 Jan. As a first step, the manager is following through the right strategy of divesting low income-producing assets. We think the next distressed asset that warrants divestiture is FCOT's 39% interest in the AWPF3 , which was inherited from its predecessor, Allco Commercial REIT (acquired prior to the financial crisis). AWPF stopped paying out dividends since 3QFY08 and its book value on FCOT's balance sheet has also dropped from a high of $75.1m in 4QFY07 to its present S$32.5m in 1QFY11 (56.7% decline). We do not see much upside potential for the Sydney assets, and think that the capital could be recycled for better income maximizing purposes such as debt pare-down or yield-accretive refurbishments.

Maintain BUY. FCOT is currently trading at a PBR of 0.44x, which is lower than its historical PBR of 0.54x since listing. We reiterate that the high discount is unwarranted, and possibly attributed to a legacy issue (its underperformance) before it was bought over by Frasers Centrepoint Limited in 2008. With a strong sponsor, capable manager and stable income, we remain confident that management will restructure its portfolio optimally. We recognize that the transformation has progressed slower than expected, partially due to the financial crisis and the doldrums in Japan, but the manager has since made all the right moves in FY2010. Maintain BUY with a revised fair value of S$0.92 (adjusted for unit consolidation).

Source/转贴/Extract/: OCBC Investment Research
Publish date:11/02/11

外資續下殺‧短期趨疲憊‧馬股失守1500點

Created 02/11/2011 - 18:30

(吉隆坡11日訊)外圍負面氛圍揮散不去,外資下殺聲持續,馬股延續跌勢發展,失守1500點關鍵心理水平,分析員認為,馬股上升格局已遭破壞,短期走勢可能持續疲憊不振。

亞股普遍下跌

埃及動盪局勢延續,加上市場憂慮中國將提昇部份銀行存款儲備金率,外資撤離亞洲和新興股市,回攻先進股市,導致亞洲股市普遍下跌,其中台灣跌2.57%,香港股市起0.53%。韓國出乎意外維持利率不變,股市大跌1.56%。

馬股週四狂跌32點後,跌勢延續,雖然以起2.92點的1506.91點開出,漲勢更一度擴大3.67點或0.24%至1507.66點全日最高,但後難抵洶湧賣壓侵蝕,富時綜指止揚回跌,更跌穿1500點關鍵水平,最低跌13.55點或0.9%至1490.44點,終場報1499.99點,跌4點,創近2個月新低。

兔年迄今
馬股共跌31.83點

兔年開年迄今,馬股共下跌31.83點或2.08%,讓1月迄今累積的漲幅悉數回吐,蒙受重創。

分析員相信原棕油價已見頂,導致種植股領跌,種植指數跌81.06點至7809.49點,其中吉隆坡甲洞(KLK, 2445, 主板種植組)跌34仙至21令吉74仙,巴都加灣(BKAWAN, 1899, 主板種植組)挫26仙至16令吉52仙。PPB集團(PPB, 4065, 主板消費品組)重創38仙至16令吉30仙。

僑豐研究指出,隨著富時綜指昨日下挫32.08點或2.09%後,今年漲幅已付之一炬,而馬股在週四表現慘淡的亞股中,跌勢僅較泰國和菲律賓為輕。

“雖然1月傳統被視為資金從新興市場轉向先進市場的月份,但此次的全球糧食價格攀升危機已開始籠罩先進市場,其中歐洲股市在經歷亮眼開年表現後,週四尾隨亞股陷入漲跌互見格局。”

僑豐認為,以技術層面論,富時綜指現已在上升線下進行交易,短期走勢趨向疲憊,一旦1500點心理關口失守,橫向趨勢(Sideway Trend)潛在成行幾率將被打破。

“目前,富時綜指立即支撐落在1500點,阻力則為1505點,接著為1524至1536點區域。”

基本面仍穩健

投資者目前最關心的是,馬股還是持續下跌嗎?僑豐認為,鑒於投資者和市場通常對任何趨勢過度反應,以富時綜指2000年16.6倍平均本益比,和-1標準偏差的13.8倍本益比,以及2011年富時綜指每股盈利103仙計算,富時綜指估值可能在1378點獲得良好扶持。

“但以馬股和國內生產總值(GDP)按年增幅比較,本益比跌至13.38倍是毫不合理的,因本益比傾向領先GDP成長一個季度,而大馬今年經濟成長目標可能達到5.8%。”

僑豐補充,大馬2011年第一季GDP成長可能因佳節強勁內需些微轉強,料1358點將是強勁支持水平,建議投資者在指數抵達相關水平時進場趁低買進。



亞洲經濟前景
勝歐美

另一方面,亞洲市場在2011年陷入困境,外資賣盤導致而馬股處於淨虧損窘境,但僑豐相信美國和歐元區充裕資金將在中期尋找渠道重返亞洲,主要是縱然亞洲國家透過升息抑制通膨壓力,亞洲經濟成長前景仍持續較歐美來得強勁。

“基於體面盈利和經濟成長前景,我們維持2011年富時綜指1628點目標不變,並建議買進經濟成長主題的銀行股,但消費領域前景則因賺益憂慮趨向悲觀。”

建築油氣產業短期看俏

僑豐表示,建築、石油與天然氣和產業領域在經濟轉型計劃支撐下,仍是良好“短線買進”目標,但礙於上漲和下跌潛能相符,建議投資者宜趁低買進。

挫降為區域現象
馬股單週賣超11.8億

馬銀行指出,馬股在農曆新年前漲勢已呈現疲態,其中交易所數據顯示,外資在1月僅淨買進馬股1億令吉,遠比2010年12月的26億令吉為低,而本月初期數據更顯示外資已轉向淨賣出,單週淨賣出11億8千萬令吉。

“以外資從去年初淨買進160億令吉來看,馬股頹勢可能持續一段時間。”

馬銀行研究表示,富時綜指週四猛挫32點(2.1%)至1503.99點,是今年首次跌穿2010年杪1519點低位水平,不過,有關挫降是區域現象,馬股跌幅最低,在亞洲主要股市,表現僅遜色於越南、中國和日本。

區域僅越南中日上升

在外資的沽盤中,今年迄今,區域股市只有越南、日本和中國保持上升,其他都大量回吐,以印度回吐最嚴重,重挫14.8%,而菲律賓也暴跌11%。

根據瑞信報告,過去3週,共有115億美元(350億令吉)外資撤出全球新興市場。

“食品和原產品價格飆漲引發通膨憂慮,中國、泰國和印尼紛紛出手升息,令投資者恐區域升息潮蠢蠢欲動爭相出走,促使馬股最終向龐大賣壓屈服,追隨區域市場年初疲憊步伐,今年為止已下跌1%,但比新加坡、泰國和印尼股市介於2.7%至8.9%跌幅,表現仍超越大市。”

大馬的基本面未受損,經濟轉型持續落實中,從去年10月迄今宣佈了800億令吉投資的啟動計劃;國油持續頒發合約;同時,經濟成長不變於5.5%,通膨率預測也偏於2.5%。

宜遠離外資持股明顯增加股項

馬銀行認為,整體大市疲弱將為投資者提供趁低累積好股的機會,但建議投資者遠離外資持股明顯增加的亞通(AXIATA, 6888, 主板貿服組)、雲頂(GENTING, 3182, 主板貿服組)、馬來亞銀行(MAYBANK, 1155, 主板金融組)和吉隆坡甲洞等股項。

“其中,雲頂股價近期已因新加坡業務營運憂慮出現調整,但基於去年外資持股顯著增加,股價賣壓可能持續。”

海事重工(MHB, 5186, 主板貿服組)、肯油企業(KENCANA, 5122, 主板貿服組)和沙布拉浪峰(SAPCRES, 8575, 主板貿服組)等油氣設施製造和服務供應商,將持續成為投資首選,而國油化學(PCHEM, 5183, 主板工業產品組)與賀特佳(HARTA, 5168, 主板工業產品組)“塑膠”主題也提供不俗的投資機會。






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Source/转贴/Extract/: biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:11/02/11

外資賣盤下殺‧1500點告急‧馬股暴跌32點

Created 02/11/2011 - 10:31

(吉隆坡10日訊)中國通膨續惡化,市場相信宏調措施將陸續有來,外資急殺出場,亞股巨挫,東南亞受重創,馬股在外資沽售銀行股拖累下跌勢慘重,收市急挫32.08點或2.1%至1503.99點,失守1510點,1500點告急。

創2008年11月來最大跌幅

馬股因為臨尾外資急殺退出,淨賣超逾7億令吉,導致綜指創下2008年11月6日以來最大跌幅,其中大眾銀行(PBBANK, 1295, 主板金融組)股息除權和其他銀行股的賣壓沉重,不少外資“寵兒”也出現“沽售”壓力,拖累馬股表現,創下今年新低。

富時綜合指數開盤即下挫11.68點至1524.39,隨後在銀行類股沉重跌勢拖累下,跌幅進一步擴大,午盤外資賣盤湧現,跌勢一發不可收拾,特別臨尾沉重的賣盤,更讓股市暴瀉難止,以1503.99點全日最低收場。

全日成交量達22億2千519萬7千股,且成交值顯示大藍籌賣壓沉重。

銀行股重摔

交易商說,場內外資賣盤明顯,臨收市前一分鐘的壓力更沉重,不排除有外資電腦賣盤沽售,而從藍籌股和外資寵兒股的拋售更顯示是外資沽售所為。

區域紛紛升息,市場擔心國家銀行隨時會宣佈調升準備金率(SRR),衝擊銀行貸款活動,導致銀行股重摔。

交易商認為,市場盛傳中國決策者可能再升息後,採取進一步措施來抑制通膨,令疑慮心理在場內持續膨脹。

“目前為止,韓國、印度、印尼、泰國和中國已開始提昇利率,而這將開始對本地市場,甚至是銀行類股開始帶來初步影響。”

銀行類股跌勢兇猛,金融指數全日大跌321.9點至13637.01點;其他綜指成份股成為外資“殺出”對象。

亞股重挫
菲泰猛瀉

中國週二突然升息,為亞洲升息潮埋下伏筆,外資擔心亞洲中行會尾隨調高利率,週四出現龐大外資沽盤,其中議息會議前夕的菲律賓、泰國和韓國首當其沖;外資“殺出”,導致韓國股市出現1.1兆韓元(3億令吉)外資賣超;菲律賓外資淨賣出,紛紛大跌。

擔心中國再升息,加上聯邦儲備局主席伯南克對美國未來數年失業率將居高不下談話,導致美股週三漲跌互見,區域股市情緒也大受打擊。

亞洲股市普遍偏軟,其中日本、台灣和香港股市跌幅介於0.11%和1.97%,但中國股市止跌回揚,上海和深圳股市分別起1.59%和2.90%。

回教銀行證券研究表示,伯南克談話顯示儘管美國經濟出現復甦跡象,但雇主仍不願積極增聘員工,未來數年就業形勢將持續嚴峻,現有9%失業率可能延續一段時間。

“基於此負面因素發展,以及中國升息冗長效應影響,我們相信本地股市可能延續其調整模式,特別是股市經過連日漲勢後。”

外資凈賣超7.35億

馬股在外資狂拋打壓下全盤收黑,佔交易總值28.16%的外資,在週四的凈賣超達7億3千530萬令吉。

根據大馬交易所網站的最新數據顯示,外資週四在馬股的買盤為5億1千320萬令吉,但猖獗的賣壓則高達12億4千850萬令吉,使外資全天凈賣超值高達7億3千530萬令吉。

本地基金扶盤不果

佔交易總值46.86%的本地投資機構,成為護盤手,週四在盤勢回跌時展開趁低吸購活動,買進總值達17億8千234萬令吉,但本地機構在同時間也拋售總值達11億4千952萬令吉的股票,他們仍然是馬股的凈買家,凈買超6億3千282萬令吉。

交投炙熱的馬股,本地散戶(包括當日交易活動或“即日鮮”)也不甘寂寞參與陣容,他們在市場共買進8億3千234萬令吉,同時也售出7億2千986萬令吉,仍然是馬股凈買家,買超達1億零248萬令吉。

馬股自今年初就不斷創新高,主要功臣當然是外資,不過,隨擔心通膨引發緊縮政策,外資逐步退出亞股,以馬股為例,週四外資撤離,導致今年的漲幅全面回吐,今年迄今下跌0.98%。




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Source/转贴/Extract/: biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:11/02/11

担心政策紧缩外资撤出观望 综指或回探1450点

2011/02/11 11:06:14 AM
●南洋商报 报道:周汉文
(吉隆坡10日讯)投资者担心新兴市场政府可能紧缩货币政策下,外资纷纷从马股撤出资金,富时隆综指短期走势不明朗,料将回调至1450点到1410点水平。

侨丰投资银行抽佣经纪洪正聪回应《南洋商报》提问时表示,马股今日惊慌失措,主要是受区域股市如香港和新加坡股市走势疲弱冲击。

忧掀升息潮

他说:“本地投资机构和外资卖盘蜂拥而出的压力,以及投资者担忧中国加息引发新兴市场掀起一波升息热潮之下,导致马股今日跌幅逾2%。”

他指出,新兴市场面对通胀压力下,主要应对方式为不是控制物价,就是提高利率。

洪正聪称,升息也意味经商成本将上扬,进而将对企业盈利造成冲击。

至于另一项担忧,则是升息是否会造成经济增长放缓。

他表示,根据技术分析,富时隆综指将在短期内往南发展,甚至回调至之前的低水平,即介于1450点至1410点水平。

1410是关键

他说:“如今,技术图已形成头肩形(head and shoulder),且指数已跌破颈线(neckline)的1512点支撑水平。”

洪正聪预料,马股料在短期出现小幅调整,并且在本月内可能跌至1410点水平,这将为投资者提供购买稳当股项的机会。

然而,他指出,如果马股无法守住在1410点水平,则料股市将出现大调整,富时隆综指预计往下滑至1300点到1240点水平。

“因此,这种情况下,建议投资者在股市出现任何涨潮时可趁机脱售手上的股票。”

Source/转贴/Extract/: 南洋商报
Publish date:11/02/11

China Taisan Anticipating 4Q results (CIMB)

China Taisan Group Holdings
Anticipating 4Q results
BUY; TP: S$0.35
Price @ 10/02/11 : S$0.185
52-week range (SGD): 0.17 – 0.24
Market cap : S$205.3m

BUY with target price of S$0.35
• Maintain Buy. We keep our current estimates unchanged pending 4Q10 earnings release this month. Our target price remains at S$0.35, based on 6.5x CY12 P/E.

• Investment merits lies in its (i) strong industry traction (ii) attractive valuations relative to its peers (iii) healthy cash position

• Stock catalysts stem from (i) fast track market expansion strategy via organic growth or M&A (ii) innovation of new products which command higher pricing and yield better gross margins (iii) expansion of its production capacity to ride on the growing demand in the textile industry

• Industry outlook. We expect that the Guangzhou Asian games held in November last year would continue to boost the demand for sportswear. Growth in the causal wear market is expected to maintain at 10% annually in the next 3 years and may invade the formal clothing territories. In addition, we see favorable long term growth prospects for the hi-tech, multi-functional polyester based knitted fabrics.

• Recent developments. China Taisan announced early last month that it intended to purchase S$28 million of new machinery to boost its production capacity. This is in line with its ambition to achieve its 2012 capacity of 39,500 tonnes to ride on the rising demand resulting from the sector recovery.

Results preview
• Looking back at 3Q10 results. We witness that revenue increased 117.0% yoy to Rmb322.2m in 3Q10 spurred by an increase in sales volume, higher ASP and the launch of new products. Gross profit improved 501.7% yoy to 84.3m following the launch of new products which yielded margins of above 30.0%. In addition, higher capacity utilisation rates reduced unit costs of production, leading to higher margins. Net profit increased 757.3% yoy to 60.7m in 3Q10.

• Strong turnaround in the industry. We observed a strong turnaround in China textile stocks after a rough and tough 2009 as their earnings were hit by falling consumer demand. China Taisan was no exception. We saw a strong yoy improvement across its revenue, net profit and
gross profit margins since 1Q10 and expect this trend to continue for 4Q10.

• Estimates. FY10 revenue is projected at Rmb 1,194m (+43.4% yoy) and net profit is Rmb 215.3m (+101.8% yoy). However, in view of strong demand from customers, China Taisan’s 4Q10 results could surprise us on the upside.

Technical BUY


• China Taisan has remained in a sideways trading band, likely forming a 13-month old triangle. At the moment prices are below its moving averages.

• Technical indicators are neutral to slightly negative, suggesting that prices are still in consolidation mode and could continue sideways for a while longer.

• As long as prices do not fall below the S$0.17 key support, the stock is still a buy. A breakout above the S$0.205 levels would likely signal that the new rally has begun. The next resistance is at S$0.23.


Source/转贴/Extract/: CIMB Research
Publish date:11/02/11

Ringgit poised for more gains versus US$

Friday February 11, 2011
Ringgit poised for more gains versus US$
By YVONNE TAN
yvonne@thestar.com.my
PETALING JAYA: The ringgit could chalk up further gains of 3% to 5% against the US dollar this year, riding on the country's positive economic and investment prospects.
RAM Holdings Bhd chief economist Dr Yeah Kim Leng said the local currency could strengthen up to RM2.93 by the end of the year after gaining 10.9% last year to RM3.08.



“Given the country's positive growth and investment outlook, we expect the ringgit's upward momentum to continue this year albeit at a more gradual pace,” Yeah said.

As at 6pm yesterday, the ringgit was traded at 3.0443. It has gained 0.6% year-to-date and reached a 13-year high of 3.0290 on Feb 4, according to Bloomberg data.
AmResearch senior economist Manokaran Mottain said that funds were still finding their way here, as emerging markets were still thought to be a better bet compared with industralised nations which had high fiscal and government debt levels.

“The ringgit is preferred compared with other regional currencies because inflation, a huge risk to Asian economies and markets right now, is still relatively low here at 2.2% as at December,” Manokaran said.

In contrast, China's consumer price index rose to 4.6% in December while Indonesia's CPI reached nearly 7% in the same period.

Manokaran's target for the ringgit against the greenback is RM2.95 by the year-end while CIMB Investment Bank chief economist Lee Heng Guie expects the local currency to strengthen to RM2.97 by the first quarter this year.

“The ringgit will peak at RM2.92 some time by the middle of this year before some profit-taking sets in,” Manokaran said.

The ringgit was the best performing Asian emerging-market currency last year and is likely to outperform again this year with a 4.7% gain, according to a recent Barclays Capital Plc report.

Faced with rising inflation, most Asian economies were embarking on a tightening mode via the raising of interest rates, RAM's Yeah said.

“This accentuates the interest rate differentials with advanced economies and the higher yields attract a rising volume of capital inflows, thus strengthening regional currencies.

“However, these are short-term inflows,” he said.

For the long term, managing inflation remains a priority. “A major factor that could undermine the rise in the ringgit is inflation which for now remains relatively low,” Yeah said.

Over the medium term, RAM expects the US dollar to continue to weaken especially in relation to the faster growing Asian countries.

“However, being the safe haven' as well as the international currency, the short-term trajectory will likely be uneven. So buy the US dollar on a need basis for now,” Yeah advised investors.


Source/转贴/Extract/: The Star Online
Publish date:11/02/11

The 1500 psychological support looks fragile (HLG)



The 1500 psychological support looks fragile
 Taking cue from the negative close on Dow overnight, persistent tension in Egypt and concern of more aggressive monetary tightening will dampen investor’s appetite for equities in the short term.

 We expect some technical rebound today following yesterday’s heavy selldown but the rebound could be short-lived in view of external risks and heavy deliveries.

 We reiterate that the FBM KLCI needs to clear the immediate hurdle of 1545 (mid Bollinger band) for a sustain challenge of the next resistance at all time high of 1577.

 As major support of 1505 (YTD low) has been broken yesterday, there are risks of further profit taking correction to retest lower supports of 1500, 1490 (120-d SMA) and 1480 (140-d SMA).

 Nonetheless, the medium term uptrend remains intact should the FBM KLCI stay above the UTL of 1470 pts.


Source/转贴/Extract/: HLIB Research
Publish date:11/02/11

110222-胡老師百寶箱-成為股市高手系列




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date:22/02/11

Thursday, February 10, 2011

Office REITs (OCBC)




Common Themes of FY10 results; Maintain OVERWEIGHT Negative rental reversion bottoming out. After FY10 results, we found a few common themes in the guidance given by Office REITs managers. Firstly, most Office REITs with Grade-A office assets expect negative rental reversions to bottom out by end 2011. In FY10, negative rental reversions were still prevalent in some Grade-A properties such as Six Battery Road and One George Street. One Raffles Quay and Suntec City1 also saw YoY declines in gross revenue contribution, but this is expected to turn around in 2011-2012. According to CBRE, Grade-A rents averaged S$9.90 psf/month in 4Q10, reflecting an increase of 10% QoQ and 22.2% YoY. Grade-A rents bottomed at S$8 psf/month in 1Q10 and have since risen some 23.8%. We see room for more rental upside ahead and forecast Grade-A rents to hit S$10.50 psf./month in 2011, more than S$11 psf/month in 2012 and above S$12 psf/month in 2013. However, non-Grade-A properties will see more gradual recovery, where they will bottom out possibly only after 2012-2013.

Hollowing-out concerns a passé. Most Office REITs hold the view that earlier concerns of the "hollowing-out effect", as the vacated space is readily being taken up by existing tenants wanting to expand or occupiers from other buildings. This is corroborated by CRBE findings which reported that that Grade- A vacancy dipped to 2.7% in 4Q10 from 2.8% in 3Q10 and a notable turnaround from 6.2% in 4Q09, despite the new supply including MBFC Tower 1 in 1Q10 and MBFC Tower 2 in 3Q10.

40% leverage is the new norm. On the back of the low interest rate environment and mega acquisitions completed in 2010 (MBFC Phase 1), we are seeing more Office REITs shoring up their aggregate leverage ratios, with Suntec leading the pack with 40.4% on end-Dec 2010 from 33% on end-Sep 2010. K-REIT's gearing also increased from 15.1% to 37%, while FCOT's leverage remains flat at 39.8%. With the exception of CCT2 which had pared down its debt in 4Q10, most of the Office REITs seem comfortable reverting back to the pre-crisis target gearing levels of 40-45%. We think the 40% will be the new norm for FY2011. Debt headroom of S$1.18b in for the local Office REITs subsector indicates that sizeable debt-funded acquisitions are still possible.



Valuations. The four local Office-REITs, namely CCT [BUY, FV: S$1.61], Suntec [HOLD, FV: S$1.60], K-REIT [NOT RATED] and FCOT [BUY, FV: S$0.90] trade at an averageprice- to-book of 0.81x, which compares favourably to the broader S-REIT sector of 0.93x. We remain upbeat on the office sector recovery; and maintain OVERWEIGHT for the local Office REITs subsector.

Demand & Supply
According to URA statistics, islandwide office stock rose 2.6% from 74.02m sf in end-2009 to 75.95m sf in end-2010. The bulk of the new projects were completed in the earlier three quarters of 2010. Notable new completions in 2010 included MBFC Tower 1 in 1Q10, Mapletree Business City in 2Q10 and MBFC Tower 2 in 3Q10 respectively.

Office take-up totalled 1.65m sf in 2010. There was a contraction of 86,112 sf in public take-up for the year, while private islandwide take-up was a healthy 1.74m sf in 2010. This is a reversal of the 236,808-sf contraction seen in 2009, which once again demonstrates the fast recovery of the office market and the voracious appetite of office occupiers for expansion space whenever the economy picks up.

According to CBRE, around 8.2m sf of office space is targeted for completion from 2011 to 2015, of which 63.0% is classified Grade A space. Nearly 3.0m sf of new schemes will be completing in 2011. This includes major developments such as OUE Bayfront, Ocean Financial Centre (OFC), Asia Square Tower 1 (AST1) and the new tower at One Raffles Place (ORP). Based on an average annual takeup rate of 1.3 million sf (2005-2009), the volume of new supply will likely outstrip takeup next year. As such, vacancy rates may actually increase in 2011, although the medium term outlook still points to reducing availability and a tightening market particularly beyond 2013, as no new Grade A office supply in Central Area is expected in 2013- 2014. The last Government Land Sales (GLS) in Marina Bay dates back to Dec 2007 and URA has also announced that it is unlikely to launch any new sites in prime locations until 2013. This is a positive for Grade A and prime office demand. CBRE has also forecasted that the office market is likely to remain strong through 2011, although there will be slightly lower leasing volume than seen in the past quarters. Business is generally positive and recruitment & headcount growth will respond accordingly. Occupier demand can be expected to be fairly broad-based across all sectors.



Source/转贴/Extract/: OCBC Investment Research
Publish date:10/02/11

经济慧眼:寻找最佳投资杠杠

2011/02/10 5:53:24 PM
●叶德利 上海财经大学金融博士
在火热的股市中保持头脑清醒实在不容易。不论是近期的大马股市还是美国股市,相信投资者在许多时候都是难以控制冲动。在这种时候,投资者们可能会不顾一切,愿意一头扎进去而不计后果。

买进股票后一就是长期持有,不然就是等待沽售,所以我们在买进股票前就必须想清楚何时卖出的问题。

当购买某个股票的最初理由消失的时候,我们就该考虑是否抛售该股票。

参考区域局势

当然,周边国家的股市行情局势也是我们的有用指标。

一些投资专家曾预测,在未来的七年只有三种资产类别将获得超过4%的年均回酬率。

其中,美国优质股票每年将上涨4.9%,新兴市场的股票则将上涨4.1%,地产类每年将上涨6%,而其他资产若有接近1%的回报率就很不错了。

同时,新兴市场的中国、印度、巴西、俄罗斯、墨西哥、印度尼西亚和土耳其是未来投资的理想去向。

普华永道(Price Waterhouse Coopers)曾估计,这七个经济体的经济总量将比G7国家(美国、日本、德国、英国、法国、意大利和加拿大)超出近50%。

中国政府正在艰难地抑制,国内的年率已超过5%的通货膨胀率。

当然,对于市场投资人士而言,最好中国政府不要猛然刹车,以免破坏升温的经济溢价。

中国的措施也许能遏制造成通货膨胀的过剩资本流入。而如果美联储真的加息,流入亚洲的资本也会随之减少。

金属稀缺时代

如今,全世界的国际投资集团如今都在寻找着一种安全又回报高的投资杠杠。大家都想拥有价值不菲、能提供“牛市中最大的投资杠杆”的资产。

我们已经进入一个新时代—即是一个受贵金属资产的稀缺价值所左右的时代。

近期埃及政变示威游行,导致了全球石油的供应紧张,国际原油价格攀升将导致高通货膨胀。所以,黄金就成了最佳的投资杠杠之一。

伴随着人们对国际主要货币和通胀前景的担忧,金价一直在不断上涨。越来越多的ETF基金以及其他用于押注大宗商品走势的投资工具,似乎也起了推波助澜的作用。

与此同时,开采新的金矿越来越困难,从而限制了黄金供给。

对于欧美国家而言,金矿企业的股票可以作为投资黄金的杠杆化手段。

如果金价走高,黄金股表现会更好,股票涨幅可能是金价涨幅的两三倍。

因为金价越高,更多的金矿企业可以受益于现有或潜在的采矿项目。

虽然开采金矿的成本很高,但金价上涨后,金矿企业可以获取更多利润,所以企业都愿意冒险,开采那些难度较大或成本较高的金矿。

虽然小型金矿的风险更高,因为还不能证明未来的产量,但这类金矿的增长潜力更大。

当然,有一些投资者对于金矿企业比较谨慎,因为很多金矿企业由于管理不善未能创造巨额利润。

我们若观察过去两年的市场状况,因为美元和其他主要货币承压、经济问题困扰发达经济体,黄金和白银价格出现飙升。对将来通胀形势的紧张情绪也越来越浓重。

美国可能加息

如果2011的经济形势缓慢改善,美联储加息的可能性越来越大,那么美元将会走强,金银价格可能大跌。当然,令人担忧的是,国际贵金属价格的上涨不是供给问题造成的,而是缘于投资需求的大增。

许多未知数有待探析。

若美元汇率升值,一部分的金银投资者可能会退守场外。而如果美国政府对于债务问题的解决好转,美元有可能再一次受到提振,而黄金价格则有可能出现回落。

金融模型弊端

随着美国政府看到欧元被削弱,并且因为利率开始升高而担心主权债务危机已蔓延到美国,美国将认真处理赤字和债务问题。

无论如何,寻找投资杠杠总比相信那些金融模型来得好。前银行家、著名金融模型设计者—伊曼纽尔·德曼(Emanuel Derman)在其新的著作《隐喻、模型与理论》(Metaphors,Models & Theories)一书中就指出金融模型的弊端。

这是因为金融模型是不可重复的,历史会改变金融市场的运行方式。当然,在寻求最佳投资杠杠的同时,我们也该警惕任何美化的经济预测数据吧。



Source/转贴/Extract/: 南洋商报
Publish date:10/02/11

经营之道:股市年底会怎样?●

2011/02/10 5:53:24 PM
●张国林 鑫资金董事经理
一月份,是一年当中基金经理最常问:“股市在年底会是个什么样子?”或是“你认为今年的股市会起多少巴仙?” 的时候。

由于亚洲股市去年表现良好,今年一月份的问题也包括了:

●股市去年涨了,是否会继续涨下去?

●有些股价自2009年起已经涨升了一倍,它们的价格是否过高了?

●这个基金已经从1令吉扬升至2令吉,这还是买入的好时机吗?

好奇的是,回答这些问题的答案都显示出:那个人到底是投资在股价上(比较倾向于技术分析);投资在公司(比较倾向于基本因素分析)或是两者的结合。

也有一些投资者是看基本因素的,不过却为股价波动所影响,不管是有意还是无意的。

普遍而言,第一种投资者是利用股价以及成交量的资讯,或是换句话说,利用“技术分析”来做投资决定。

这个方法使用股价走势,譬如:移动平均数、反转现象、动力以及图表;其中,寄望于各种价格走势会重复,尝试利用这些趋势。

技术分析并不注重股票的真正“价值”,因为它相信所有的资讯已经反映在股价上。这个方法就是利用过去的走势来预测接下来的走势。

第二种投资者使用“基本因素”资讯来投资公司。投资者将会分析公司,譬如:年报以及户头、管理层、竞争的优势以及竞争者;宏观趋势,譬如:全球利率、区域经济成长、国际贸易也会打击业务。

我身为基本因素的投资者,我会想象在一家公司参股的方式思考以及做决定。

因此,需要研究该公司的管理层、业务模式、行业、竞争状况以及其他;我才会做决定,这家公司是否值得投资。

考虑长期涨升

基本因素的投资会考量现有以及未来的“价值”;譬如:如果一家公司的基本因素和潜质,投资者很有可能投资更多或做长期投资。

一旦你找到一家公司,应该从长期的价格涨升中受惠,而不是在不成熟的情况中套利。其中一个挑战就是太早套利的诱惑,只不过因为一家公司的股价已扬升至特定的百分比(譬如100%),这并不表示股价不会进一步上扬。

抵住太早套利诱惑

很多好公司的股价已见涨了好几倍。著名的投资者彼得林奇(Peter Lynch)称之为“10倍股”,意即这些股将会随着时间比原来买价,增长10倍。

一旦我发现好的公司有着好的管理层,在良好的环境有着吸引人的估值;我需要抵住太早套利的诱惑。我会选择守住投资以及享受多重股价上扬。

只要估值相对比公司成长潜能吸引人,我会选择守住,当然这需要定时观察公司的进展。简单而言,我是以业务估值,而不只是股价。

市场左右股价

我同时也没有预设的止蚀水平。如果公司的基本面是好的,即使股价滑落,或许会买入更多以拉低平均价格。相反的,当公司的基本面已逐步衰退,我就会赶快套利,甚至是止蚀。

着重基本因素

对于那些看基本面的投资者,不过却容易被股价动摇者,就必须在投资时,清楚知道一些基本的不同。

股价是很容易观察的。一个好的或是不太好的决定,就会马上在接下来的股价反映出来。不过短期的股价会为市场情绪所影响,尤其是过分的牛市或熊市;它也时常被投资者的赎回和逼仓所影响。

我是相信基本因素的,人们的心理时常会被股价所动摇。我个人特意保持清醒,不要为每日股价所动摇,着重于基本因素;更多依赖于我的调查工作、研究、企业拜访以及透彻了解该公司,以作投资决定。

我并没有鼓吹哪个方法比较好。技术分析以及基本因素分析是不同的工具。事实上,很多投资者采用这两种方法的或多或少。

由于我是个较为倾向基本因素的投资者,我较少把焦点放在股市会起多少或是综指在年杪会在哪里;不过相较之下,我会着重于我投资的公司业务成长以及管理层表现如何。

简单说出我的看法,巴菲特的名句看起来还蛮贴切的:如果业务表现良好,股价最后也会跟上的。带着这样的观念,我避免预测股价。


Source/转贴/Extract/: 南洋商报
Publish date:10/02/11

Singtel A mixed bag (CIMB)

Singapore Telecommunications
UNDERPERFORM Maintained
S$3.09 Target: S$3.29
A mixed bag

• In line. Annualised 9MFY11 core net profit matches CIMB and market expectations with respective variances of -1% and -3%. The results were characterised by: 1) strong contributions by SingTel Singapore as EBITDA margins expanded; 2) higher Optus contributions supported by a 5% qoq rise in the A$; and 3) weak contributions from associates. SingTel has reiterated its guidance. We maintain our earnings forecasts, S$3.29 SOP target price and UNDERPEFORM rating. Likely de-rating catalysts are: 1) regulatory issues in India surrounding one-off fees and renewal fees for spectrum; 2) a more aggressive Telstra in Australia, and 3) margin pressure in Singapore on content costs and mioTV’s expansion. SingTel will be hosting a conference call today at 11am Singapore time.

• Singapore margins expanded. SingTel Singapore had a strong quarter where its EBITDA margins expanded 2.4% pts qoq on the back of lower subscriber acquisition costs, although the last calendar quarter was a festive one. We believe this was due to a low base in the previous quarter when the iPhone 4 was launched. Revenue was also seasonally powered by IT sales as companies completed their projects by year-end. As a result, 3Qcore net profit jumped 18% qoq.

• A$ bolstered Optus’s contributions. Optus's 3Q revenue rose 7.7% qoq, driven by a 5% qoq appreciation of the A$ against the S$. EBITDA margins were broadly unchanged, while core net profit was flat qoq.

• Associates were weak. Associate 3Q PBT fell 8.5% qoq, dragged down by Telkomsel (-7% qoq), Bharti (-12% qoq) and Globe (-18% qoq). Telkomsel's contribution was diluted by a 4% qoq depreciation of the rupiah vs. the S$. Its revenue was also affected by "heightened market competition as many aggressive price promotions were launched" while EBITDA was flat qoq in rupiah terms. Bharti’s contribution was affected by fair value losses from mark-to-market valuation of foreign currency liabilities. Globe was affected by stiff competition, on unlimited voice and SMS offerings.

Source/转贴/Extract/: CIMB Research
Publish date:10/02/11

點股天書尋金兔

Created 02/10/2011 - 19:20

有人說,兔年的波幅為“兔躍”,與虎年的“虎跳”不同,兔年股市波幅具有兔子謹慎的特性,因此大市走勢逢反彈後會略為停滯,待兔子回頭查看後再做反彈。

金兔年一開春,馬股確實已感受到上述兔子的屬性,高位後又拉回,1600點如“望梅止渴”,分析員都直言今年是金兔年,大市整體走勢向好,只是走勢較虎年更為波動。

所以,兔年投資切忌“守株待兔”,不僅得學習“狡兔三窟”,還得懂得“見兔放鷹”、“動如脫兔”,選股也要像兔子般小心翼翼,詳情請參考此期的《點股天書》。

相傳在亞洲東北部的虎穴有一本《點股天書》,世人只要得到該天書,就能參透股市的箇中玄機,成為得天下的股神,各路江湖高手皆對天書蠢蠢欲動。

兔寶寶去年股海失利,意決赴虎穴尋求《點股天書》,拜見虎大哥時,虎大哥千叮萬囑,要在股海中得天下,必須先瞭解自身的風險承擔力,而且,要知道股海也有不測之風雲。

虎大哥拿出一堆《點股天書》,指出“天書”因人而異,兔寶寶得像“獅子搏兔亦用全力”來找出適合自身的“天書”……打開《點股天書》前,還得先唸一小段“咒語”……

兔躍長天爭春暖,誰才是領域“金兔”?

● 銀行

兔年旺金,有利於金融業,尤其升息號角隨時響起!早前一口氣收購新加坡金英控股的馬來亞銀行(MAYBANK, 1155, 主板金融組),兔年仍不忘“玉兔迎春添新象”,金融“金兔”當然非其莫屬。

此外,馬銀行競爭對手之一聯昌集團(CIMB, 1023, 主板金融組),因投資銀行業務表現卓越,也順利成為銀行領域“金兔”。

● 產業

實達集團(SPSETIA, 8664, 主板產業組)股價雖在大幅上漲後近期陷入盤整格局,但基本面強勁與產業銷售穩健讓該公司地位穩如泰山,成為產業領域的“金兔”。

● 種植

原棕油價大唱豐收,吉隆坡甲洞(KLK, 2445, 主板種植組)大事拓展業務藍圖讓兔年更添喜氣,艷壓群芳,晉身為種植領域“金兔”。

● 電訊

區域業務“銀兔滿堂”、股息可期,亞通(AXIATA, 6888, 主板貿服組)近期頻頻成為電訊“閃亮之星”,兔年再度被點名為電訊“金兔”已見怪不怪。

● 博彩

“兔年財源滾滾來”正是博彩業過年的最佳寫照,雲頂(GENTING, 3182, 主板貿服組)與雲頂大馬(GENM, 4715, 主板貿服組)過去一年不斷壯大博彩江山,母子雙雙成為博彩“金兔”。

● 油氣

國際油價攀高,國際油氣生機勃勃,油氣股兔年好運擋不住,肯油企業(KENCANA, 5122, 主板貿服組)傳言將與英國Petrofac計劃結合資源共同發展邊緣油田,盈利可期下當選油氣“金兔”。

● 媒體

兔年大吉大利,媒體有望大顯身手!媒體“金兔”-首要媒體(MEDIA, 4502, 主板貿服組)看來是“風和兔躍開新運”。

● 油氣工程“金兔”

去年才閃亮登場的國油化學(PCHEM, 5183, 主板工業產品組),今年可謂“福兔迎祥”,因母公司國家石油提供的原料氣體價誘人,讓其成為亞洲除中東市場,最具競爭力的乙烯生產商。最近國際油價強勁,帶動潛在收益上漲空間,自然而然成為“金兔”之一。

僑豐研究天書
咒語:兔耳衝天,動如脫兔。

馬股今年在盈利(EARNING)、選舉(ELECTIONS)與貨幣寬鬆政策(EASING)“3E”主導下有望“兔”氣揚眉。

今年的盈利成長預測達16%,銀行與國內消費或推動航空、保健與房產業領域鴻“兔”大展,至於與選舉息息相關的新聞,如吉隆坡各式產業發展計劃、吉隆坡捷運與輕快鐵擴建料也讓建築、產業與油氣領域前“兔”似錦。

另外,全球貨幣寬鬆政策促使流動力中期內湧入亞洲,來自銀行與博彩領域的較大型藍籌股有望“動如脫兔”。

上半年有望超越富時綜指的領域包括銀行、消費、產業、建築、油氣與博彩。

僑豐十大“心水股”

○馬銀行:買進
目標價:10令吉零7仙

為大馬最大規模銀行,近期盈利成長強勁,股本回酬率預計走高至16%。印尼業務有望成為更長期的盈利主力。

○聯昌銀行:買進
目標價:9令吉77仙

在大馬擁有最強勁的投資銀行分行,區域貢獻強佔盈利36%。隨資本市場交易續抬頭,股息具上探潛力,聯昌銀行的股價/賬面值達2.65倍。

○亞通:買進
目標價:5令吉80仙

大馬電訊公司中區域成長的前鋒,主要由大馬與印尼業務主導下,未來三年的盈利年均複合成長率超過20%。

○雲頂:買進
目標價:13令吉81仙

去年下半年業績顯示,新加坡整合度假村未顯著侵蝕雲頂大馬,讓公司前景備受看好。相比同儕,該公司仍以企業價值收益比高達50%折價交易。

○亞航:買進
目標價:3令吉32仙

除區域飛行需求增長,聯號公司泰國與印尼亞航也不間斷取代舊飛機,同時相信盈利將在上市前上升。

○實達集團:買進
目標價:6令吉38仙

未來數年的產業需求強勁,促使有地段的產業發展成首選。除基本面,該公司也參與吉隆坡大型發展計劃。

○肯油企業:買進
目標價:2令吉57仙

攫取國家石油與海外合約方面具良好紀錄,2家國油子公司上市也讓油氣領域更受矚目,進而惠及該公司。

○全利資源:買進
目標價:3令吉44仙

區域成長顯著的消費品公司,旗下印尼與越南的拓展計劃有望在2012年帶來成果。

○柔佛醫藥保健:買進
目標價:4令吉62仙

大馬最大規模的私人醫院公司,目前在大馬擁有20間醫院,在印尼有1家醫院,該公司也繼續在年杪前開拓另三家醫院。私人保健需求提高也意味這是良好的抗跌股。

○雙威控股:買進
目標價:2令吉72仙

建築合約捲土重來有望改寫落後同儕的際遇,姊妹公司雙威城(S U NCI TY,6289,主板產業組)高達160億令吉的強勁訂單支撐下,雙威控股預期的3年年均複合成長率達37%。

野村控股天書
咒語:虎尾繫著金攏財氣,兔首搖著鈴盪福音。

“5C”(Characteristics)或讓馬股重返1990年初的超級牛市!這5大特徵為經濟復甦、流動力大增、不同領域的循環購興、併購活動蓬勃、散戶參與度提高。

此外,馬幣預計走強13%也讓馬股如“福兔迎祥”,估計股市仍有15%的上探空間,並在年杪攻破1703點。

併購風四面掛起也為原本平靜的馬股“風和兔躍開新運”,大馬消費力興起與資產通貨再膨脹也是今年兔年擺脫不了的投資主題。

產業、棕油與銀行領域將是表現亮眼的“金兔”。

野村十大“心水股”

○馬銀行:買進
目標價:10令吉70仙

房貸、車貸與信用卡將推動整體貸款增長,看好該行舉足輕重的消費者市場定位。

○聯昌銀行:買進
目標價:10令吉

在投資銀行中具領航地位,有望自近期“迎頭趕上”的併購計劃中獲益,尤其政府相關公司計劃。較預期強勁的資本營業額與資產素質或持續支撐表現。

○安聯金融:買進
目標價:3令吉90仙

除有望自國家銀行進一步升息中受惠,該公司是有意在大馬立足的區域銀行,潛在併購的對象。

○森那美:買進
目標價:11令吉10仙

新管理層證明了業務表現與效率改善的能力,而全球植物油收緊、原油價轉強、美元走疲促使2011財政年的棕油價飆升,並惠及盈利與估值。

○亞通:買進
目標價:5令吉90仙

國內與海外業務的潛力蓬勃,旗下天地通料提供一致的現金流、XL帶來營業額與盈利的成長;2010財政年的派息可能是正面驚喜。

○馬電訊:買進
目標價:4令吉

除高速寬頻計劃的淨增長與特別股息造好,數據與非語音成長料抵銷語音營業額受挫的衝擊,低寬頻滲透率也推動固定與無線寬頻的成長潛力。

○雲頂大馬:買進
目標價:4令吉12仙

英國業務以及近期收購的美國業務可望翻轉頹勢,預料帶動股價走高,國內業務繼續帶來強勁現金流。

○大馬機場:買進
目標價:8令吉54仙

吉隆坡國際機場與新廉航終站釋放地庫價值、東盟開放領空、外國機場創造收益皆是催化劑,旅遊業成長也將提振機場乘客。

○首要媒體:買進
目標價:2令吉90仙

今年媒體廣告收入料表現強勁,廣告量走高可望加強整體賺幅,預見電視媒體較平面媒體把握更多媒體廣告的市佔率。

○國油化學:買進
目標價:6令吉60仙

處於周期升勢的复甦階段,營運模式強勁,長期獲利穩定。

興業研究天書
咒語:兔腳為你開財路,兔耳為你撞鴻運。

經濟轉型計劃(ETP)與第十大馬計劃、聯邦土地私有化以重新發展、砂拉越選舉與大選可能提早、依斯干達發展、併購活動凝聚勢頭、政府相關公司積極革新,皆為兔年關鍵主題與潛在催化劑。

奉勸貼緊基本面強勁的股項,並以尋求價值為投資上策。同時隨股市顯著“拉回”時,累積長期超越大市的基本面強勁股項。

大型計劃頒發的新聞流充斥下,建築與產業股短期內續受矚目,同時看好銀行領域經濟復甦下的價值。油氣、種植與木柴領域料也“超越大市”。

興業十大“心水股”

○馬銀行:超越大市
目標價:10令吉20仙

升息料提振銀行賺幅,盈利由國內業務支撐,同時在海外市場高度暴露的銀行,淨利動力更佳。

○聯昌銀行:超越大市
目標價:9令吉80仙

併購與籌資活動熾熱,為今年投資銀行展望錦上添花。

○雲頂:超越大市
目標價:12令吉80仙

新加坡綜合渡假村持續主導盈利,種植與電力部業務有望註銷國內博彩盈利放慢的利空。

○雲頂大馬:超越大市
目標價:4令吉50仙

大馬蓬勃的博彩業務提供堅固支撐。

○吉隆坡甲洞:超越大市
目標價:27令吉35仙

原產品需求走高,棕油價的漲勢或持續至上半年,對公司盈利推波阻攔。

○金務大:短線買進
目標價:4令吉51仙

政府總值400億令吉的捷運計劃新聞流將支撐股價表現。

○實達集團:超越大市
目標價:6令吉50仙

公司資產負債表與獲利紀錄強穩,即使擴大股本仍可容許更高負債與流動率,長期效益亮麗。

○肯油企業:買進
目標價:2令吉60仙

政府陸續出爐的油氣合約估計讓已開發油田、頂部維修與岸外裝配和營運業者受惠,如肯油企業。

○亞通:超越大市
目標價:5令吉52仙

相對國內同儕,估值仍廉宜,區域業務地位續帶動成長。

○常成控股:超越大市
目標價:4令吉83仙

棕油價唱好,加上印度與中國對木柴需求強穩,促使擁有油棕業務的木柴公司更有看頭。

MIDF研究天書
咒語:銀兔進家富滿堂,耕兔願你糧滿倉。

短期8大正面因素為今年國內生產總值預計成長超過5%、企業盈利漲幅或加速至15.8%、併購等企業活動升溫、更多大型上市計劃、海外購興大增、原棕油與原產品價上漲、經濟轉型大計下更多資本密集計劃、選舉。

儘管外圍波動,相信今年盈利展望依舊穩健,銀行、建築、油氣與種植傳統領域更有望在兔年行大運。

MIDF十大“心水股”

○馬銀行:買進
目標價:10令吉50仙

股價淨值比具吸引力,貸款虧損撥備費用已降低,海外業務貸款成長蓬勃,尤其印尼國際銀行B II;非利息收入料繼續強勁增長,投資銀行的交易流也將支撐公司費用收入。

○IOI集團:買進
目標價:7令吉29仙

全年棕油價預測為每公噸3千令吉,為種植公司造好。

○亞通:買進
目標價:5令吉30仙

涉足印尼與斯里蘭卡成長市場,促使資本增值空間更大。

○吉隆坡甲洞:買進
目標價:24令吉零2仙

印度與中國對食用油需求上升,續推高棕油價,讓今年領域淨利成長15%可期。

○金務大:買進
目標價:4令吉30仙

除是吉隆坡捷運計劃的“領跑者”,也有望在輕快鐵拓展計劃中分一杯羹。

○數碼網絡:買進
目標價:27令吉

派息率依然超越大市。

○輝百集團:買進
目標價:3令吉60仙

醫院入住率與其他相關服務的需求增加將提高醫院支援服務需求,讓作為政府最大醫院支援服務的輝百集團受惠。

○大馬投資:買進
目標價:7令吉30仙

與澳紐銀行(ANZ)的策略性結盟顯示了公司風險管理與資產素質改善,借助國際夥伴的一臂之力是該公司拓展銀行保險、投資銀行與企業貸款的關鍵。

○首要媒體:買進
目標價:2令吉80仙

看好該公司全面的廣告供應,包括電視、電台、平面、電子,有望取得更多媒體廣告收入。

○友力森:買進
目標價:2令吉80仙

看好半導體業持續擴張,尤其涉足中國市場的友力森。

結語

《點股天書》最後不忘提醒,由游資支撐的漲潮很少持久,一些預料之外的事可能影響兔年欣欣向榮的走勢,導致資本提早“驚猿脫兔”,所以,資本流動不固定絕對是未來關鍵風險。

此外,馬股雖有望在“金兔”得意忘形下排除萬難衝破1650點,惟一旦攻破該水平,建議“見兔顧犬”,減少持股,因1650點已是巔峰,若不“勢若脫兔”,可能遭埋伏,尤其一旦美國開始升息,“遊戲”也將結束。

兔年,想要在股市中鴻“兔”大展,看來還得學會“靜若處子,動若脫兔”!


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Source/转贴/Extract/: biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:10/02/11

壓力測試‧中台印尼風險大‧亞洲新興‧大馬最抗壓

Created 02/10/2011 - 18:30

(吉隆坡10日訊)根據衡量成長、通膨與資本流動的壓力指數測試,大馬壓力最輕,在亞洲新興市場中抗壓性最強,顯示國家銀行去年領先升息決定屬“先見之明”,除了得以緩和亞洲一觸即發的通膨潮外,也能避開更多資本管制或貨幣干預來影響經濟成長。

中國通膨風險最高

益資利研究表示,根據通膨壓力指數顯示,中國目前風險最高,按序為台灣、印尼、韓國、印度、泰國、新加坡與大馬。其中,大馬總得分88.3分,除了經常賬項取得偏高分數外,其他都屬於低水平。

壓力指數由4項易脆項目與8個變數組成,包括產能差距、進一步將利率正常化潛能、兌美元升值、外匯儲備累積、資本賬項紀錄的淨資本流入、非外國直接投資資本流入程度、經常賬項與Chinn-Ito指數(即資本賬項對金融對外開放的測試工具)。

益資利表示,多虧國行提早進行貨幣政策正常化,相對減輕目前市場價格壓力。

國際收支平衡壓力對馬影響微

“不過,由於流入大馬的資本規模仍遜於中國、印度與印尼,加上經濟體產能差距最低,因此造就國際收支平衡壓力對大馬影響不大。”

益資利補充,雖然馬幣是目前第四高升值貨幣,惟目前仍有充份政策彈性來減輕宏觀經濟困擾。

中國壓力最大

從上述指數可判斷中國壓力最大,最需要解決“燃眉之急”。

“中國獲得高分主要反映強勁經濟成長基本面與誘人程度,因此成為外資投資首選。加上中國允許人民幣緩慢升值,已加速外國儲備,資產價格壓力與國內通膨風險也隨之走高。”

不過,幸好中國對部份跨界投資設限,讓中國經濟在對抗熱錢流向或資金突停方面有緩衝。加上中國正極力進行利率正常化與一些打房措施,這些政策寬度仍對長期發展有利,可協助重組結構開放金融系統與增加資本賬項兌換。



擋熱錢和抗通膨
新興市場走鋼索

益資利表示,今年各國挑戰就好像走鋼絲,即如何規律維持來自先進市場的資金潮與抑制新興市場通膨壓力組合,預防泡沫破滅週期是挑戰。

“全球金融風暴後促使新興市場復甦步伐快於先進國家,G3國家的寬鬆貨幣政策已經發動新興市場游資潮。由於資金持續,新興市場目前在限制國內外價格壓力副作用方面持續有壓力。”

食物通膨為最大隱憂

目前,新興市場通膨展望受到食物通膨、全球原產品價格與資產通膨持續走高困擾,並有可能超越市場預期。

益資利認為,目前食物通膨是新興市場最大隱憂,因為大部份可支配收入都花費在食物上。原產品價格走高主要是因為許多主要生產國供應嚴重短缺,不過這只是短暫,主要是目前供應都恢復。

“若供應短缺持續超越預期,原產品價格飆漲將轉嫁給國內消費者價格,造成壓力負擔。2008年食物供應危機與社會動亂說明食物通膨快速的危險。”

原產品與資產價續走高

除了匯率管道外,國內價格也受非貿易品領域影響。食物、原產品與其他資產價格持續走高,最終都會導致核心通膨走高。幸運的是,目前這些項目轉嫁程度仍不穩定。

益資利表示,若上述3個通膨“齊力發功”,可能導致貨幣政策管理複雜。通常政府會透過獨立貨幣政策、完美資本流動與固定匯率機制來抑制通膨,不過以往最多只有兩個政策會同步出現。

“因此,目前政府有幾種選擇,包括干預匯率與增加儲備、資本管制及宏觀審慎管理。”

緊縮政策多管齊下

益資利指出,目前貨幣緊縮政策主要充作抵抗高通膨的解救方法。儘管新興市場的中行已經調高利率,許多國家的實質利率仍非常寬鬆。

不過,由於先進國家利率仍低,新興市場貨幣高回酬將吸引更多熱錢流入。

干預貨幣
控制短期資本波動

“若資本流入過於泉湧,貨幣升值是有害的,因為無法理想地分配資源。

雖然一些貨幣持續遭低估,惟另外一些貨幣合理或高估的國家可能會選擇透過貨幣干預來防止貨幣進一步升值。”

益資利解釋,這些干預分為非沖銷干預(Unsterilised interventions)與沖銷干預。非沖銷干預抵銷貨幣升值,惟會增加國內貨幣供應與加劇資產泡沫與過熱的憂慮;沖銷干預則預防貨幣與信貸成長,惟會放大利率差距。

“貨幣干預只有在短期控制嚴重資本波動時才上場。基本面而言,若成長與利率差距持續,將會引發游資持續流向新興市場。”

益資利表示,自由資本流動原本能改善全球有限資源的分配,並提供很多好處如推動資本投資,增加全球生產力與收入,分散風險等。

“不過,資本流動可以是炒作與波動,甚至脫離基本面,最終資本更可能會突然銳減甚至煞車,導致許多依賴外資的經濟體受創。”

因此,許多政府會採取資本管控就是限制跨界資本流動,這可分為量化基礎與價化基礎。

“這些都可視為避震措施,與目標銀行借貸、外國直接投資、組合投資、購買國內債務至托賓稅(Tobin Tax)都不同。後者是對外匯現貨交易課的全球統一交易稅。”

可採宏觀審慎管理

益資利解釋,由於資本管制會影響財務穩定,因此政府會採取宏觀審慎管理充當另一個穩定金融市場的工具。

目前資本流動的風險程度從最低至最高排名是外國直接投資、組合股票投資、國內貨幣債務、消費者價格指數貨幣債務與外國貨幣債務,其中短期資本風險程度都比長期高。

目前全球金融市場都採取不同的匯率機制,其中許多先進國都採用市場基準匯率,歐洲貨幣聯盟是固定貨幣區,亞洲經濟體則是採取混合式貨幣機制。

這些限制讓貨幣管理政策更複雜。

益資利指出,若外資流入推動力來自基本面因素如龐大與持續的成長差距、利率差距或貨幣低估,解決方案就是允許貨幣升值至合理水平。

“許多新興國家目前已經讓貨幣逐漸升值,以預防煽動通膨壓力的資本,防止貨幣快速升值而打擊出口。由於目前許多新興市場仍仰賴出口,若貨幣不穩定可能會造成貿易下滑3%,至於製造品貿易也會減少5%。


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Source/转贴/Extract/: biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:10/02/11

HIGH RISKS for high returns – maybe

It’s that time of the year again. For the past four years, The Edge Singapore has put together a portfolio of 10 locally listed stocks that we think will outperform in the year ahead. Our picks are the result of our own monitoring of the corporate sector as well as economic and financial market trends.

This year, we are approaching the task with a sense of dread. The US looks set to maintain its loose monetary policy, sending waves of liquidity rippling across the world. Yet, growth is decelerating, inflation is rising and stock valuations have been jacked up by a two-year rally. On top of that, there are disturbing signs of emerging geopolitical strife that could adversely affect business and capital flows.

Making money in 2011, we think, will require a high degree of risk-taking. Our readers who lack the stomach for this could well stay out of the market and park their cash in short-dated government bonds. On the other hand, the ones who are willing to stay with equities could adopt a nimble, trading-oriented approach, waiting for opportune moments to buy as the year progresses. We have no such luxury, though. We will ride all 10 of our stocks for a full year, after which we measure our performance (including dividends) against the Straits Times Index.

So, where would we put our money this year? We are going with the momentum in the hotter segments of the market that have been stoked by big and somewhat interrelated themes, such as quantitative easing in the US, China’s growing consumption, commodities and inflation. Opinion differs on when the US will feel confident enough to begin retracting its monetary stimulus, but we are taking the view that it won’t happen this year. That sets the stage for persistent flows of capital to Asia, which is basically positive for asset prices.

We don’t expect a smooth ride, though. “[Asia has] no choice but to become the biggest importers of quantitative easing in the world,” says Jimmy Koh, UOB Kay Hian’s head of economic and treasury research. However, governments are uncomfortable with the hangover we might be left with when the party ends, and are beginning to react in different ways. “Policymakers are just questioning themselves: What will happen when the money leaves?” adds Koh.

Now, Asian governments are paying close attention to headline inflation data, property price trends and loan growth, and coming up with policies to pre-empt another financial crisis. However, many of them are unwilling to adopt traditional anti-inflationary policies such as raising interest rates or allowing their currencies to appreciate.

Policy uncertainty
China, for instance, would only exacerbate its problems if it were to hike interest rates, says Qu Hongbin, HSBC’s chief economist for the Greater China region. “With global interest rates low, any kind of aggressive rate hike in China is likely to attract more capital inflows, which is actually counterproductive in terms of managing liquidity.” He adds that a stronger renminbi would have little impact on China’s domestic inflation.

Stephen King, chief economist at HSBC, also thinks a stronger renminbi would do little to unwind the imbalances that have built up between China’s export-oriented economy and the consumption-oriented US and Europe. “That is exactly the same view that people had about Japan and the yen back in the late 1980s,” he says. “[Yet], the yen’s appreciation has not led to the unwinding of imbalances. Japan’s current account surplus has continued to rise as a share of Japanese GDP over the last 30, 40 years. So, one of the big questions here is: Is it really right to believe that a movement in one particular exchange rate solves all ills in the global economy?”

Instead of going for higher interest rates or stronger currencies, King sees emerging economies turning to less conventional policies. “We’re going to see quantitative easing, which we’re experiencing in the US currently, being offset within the emerging world with what we call quantitative tightening.” This could involve a whole gamut of direct administrative measures. “That includes changing collateral requirements for loans to act on the demand for loans. It includes changing reserve ratios, changing capital ratios at banks, trying to limit the supply of credit. And, of course, in many parts of the emerging world, the use of capital controls.”

Clearly, such direct measures would have a significant impact on financial markets as they are introduced. That could spell more volatility for investors in the months ahead. As it is, Singapore and Hong Kong have imposed punitive measures to curb speculation in their residential property markets, sparking sell-offs in shares in real estate developers. China has also moved towards taxes on property, and is considering direct measures to rein in inflation, which is casting a shadow over China stocks.

Meanwhile, there is doubt that such an approach would work in the long term. Robert Subbaraman, chief Asia economist at Nomura, worries that policymakers in Asia might find that they are falling behind the curve when it comes to managing inflation by 2H2011. “Asian central banks [are] starting to micromanage economies more with non-market-based measures,” he says, referring to capital controls, imposing higher reserve requirements on banks and capping food prices. “With these types of administrative measures, the risk is that they lose effectiveness over time. Loop-holes are found to get around them. Then, when they start losing effectiveness, central banks realise that they need to catch up with more market-based measures.”

That could mean an even more drastic round of tightening later this year, adding to market volatility and raising the risks for investors.

Inflation erodes margins
In the meantime, investors ought to be wary of how inflationary pressures are affecting the corporate sector. With energy, food, rental and labour costs rising at the same time, there is a growing risk of earnings forecasts being revised down as the year progresses. Meanwhile, un-certainties in North Africa and the Middle East could drive the oil price up further.

“Analysts are forecasting about 15% [earnings per share] growth for the world and 13% for Asia. We can probably get somewhere close to that, though maybe not quite there,” says Garry Evans, HSBC’s global head of equity strategy. “Margins are not quite as good as analysts assume because higher commodity and input prices mean that companies are not perhaps going to achieve the improvement in margins analysts see.”

Lorraine Tan, Standard & Poor’s Equity Research director for Asia, says such an environment will favour companies in the commodities space. “Our preference, as far as inflation plays go, is the energy sector,” she says. On the other hand, Tan expects companies that will suffer the most from inflation to be those unable to pass on some of their cost increases and that have higher debt ratios. “Companies with higher debt are probably going to see an increase in interest expense because interest rates are going up,” she says.

Don’t ignore everything outside the commodities sphere, though. Global growth is likely to stay firm, creating revenue growth momentum for many companies, Tan says, adding: “We expect to see sales improve as well. So, you’re going to get the benefit of greater efficiency, higher plant utilisation numbers, and that’s going to filter through to higher margins.”

Third-year syndrome
Indeed, despite all the risks, it is worth remembering just how far we have come from the depths of the crash two years ago, when it seemed that the whole world was on the brink of an economic depression. Evans of HSBC says the market psychology in the current recovery is following past patterns. “In the first year, you normally get acceleration,” he says. “Nobody expects the rebound. [Yet], it happens. Markets are very strong.” In the second year, there are corrections and investors worry about the sustainability of the recovery that is unfolding, he adds. “[In] the third year, you typically get a period of more stable, more mature growth.”

Against that backdrop, Evans sees the market starting to focus on big blue-chip stocks that offer stable growth. “They’re relatively under owned,” he says. While investors chased hot Chinese consumption stocks and mid-cap Indonesian stocks over the last couple of years as the market was rocketing, they are now likely to fall back onto the certainty offered by the heavyweights. “This year is a different sort of year,” he adds.

China will also remain a major market theme even as it moves to cope with inflationary pressures and trade imbalances. “China has made it clear that even when it comes to balancing the trade surplus, it prefers to keep demand strong and increase imports to narrow the trade surplus, rather than use currency appreciation,” says HSBC’s Qu.

“Wages for factory workers have picked up meaningfully. So, that means consumer spending is still going to remain quite strong.”

There are also still plenty of railways, bridges and subway projects that need to be completed during the course of the next few years, adds Qu. That spells potentially strong demand drivers for the rest of the region. “Chinese growth is still likely to remain around 9% in terms of GDP for 2011. It’s still going to be a meaningful engine of growth for the rest of the region,” he says.

China might also be a source of liquidity for some Asian markets. Norman Villamin, chief investment officer at RBS Coutts, says: “You’re seeing China trying to release some money from its domestic economy through offshore bonds. We think that’s an interesting trend. China is becoming increasingly open to encouraging capital outflow. The last time they did this was in 2003  when SARS was happening in Hong Kong, they wanted to encourage capital flow into Hong Kong.” This time around, Villamin believes Taiwan is likely to benefit.

What about Singapore? He warns that stock valuations are not particularly cheap, and the earnings outlook is not as strong as other markets. “In Singapore, it’s a currency story,” he says. “The market itself will not deliver strong returns.”

Making the best of a tough situation, we have spread our bets among blue-chip companies such as Noble Group, Singapore Exchange and United Overseas Bank. We have also included domestic asset plays such as Overseas Union Enterprise and SC Global Developments. And, we have Raffles Medical as a bet on continuing momentum in the healthcare sector. Finally, we have a generous sprinkling of S-chips with good micro growth stories as well as low valuations.


Source/转贴/Extract/: TheEdgeSingapore issue 458
Publish date:07/02/11

How lucky will the casinos be in 2011?

How lucky will the casinos be in 2011?

Gamblers trying their luck at the local casinos as the Year of the Rabbit dawns this week may well reflect on how far Singapore’s two integrated resorts have come.

It has been almost a year since Resorts World at Sentosa, owned by Genting Singapore, opened its doors for business. It was followed by the soft opening in April of Marina Bay Sands, owned by Las Vegas Sands. Since then, just about everyone has been surprised by the size of the local gambling market, with even the most bullish analyst forecasts proving to be too low. Gaming revenues in Singapore are now fast catching up with the Las Vegas Strip’s, the world’s second-largest casino market after Macau.

As a result, shares in Genting Singapore have climbed higher and higher, as the market got to grips with the size of an industry that didn’t exist here before. Nomura said in a note last year that analysts had adjusted their price targets for Genting Singapore 76 times over the 12 months to September. That month, the stock crossed $2 and has pretty much stayed above that level since.

Has the market finally figured out how much gamblers in Singapore are willing to regularly lose? And, have shares in Genting Singapore finally found their level?

To be sure, Resorts World at Sentosa and Marina Bay Sands have probably benefited from simply being new, attracting curious visitors over the past year who may never intend to return again. Yet, who is to say that first-time visitors to the casino won’t enjoy themselves so much that they end up becoming regular patrons, helping to keep casino revenues growing?

On the flipside, there appears to be a growing backlash against the casinos, as their impact is increasingly felt across local society. Hardly a week seems to pass without some story of gamblers losing more than they would like making the headlines. In some instances, the losses are said to have been in the tens of millions. In other cases, the losses are very much smaller but have nonetheless prompted the loser into some desperate act.

It’s perhaps no wonder that some companies would like to see their employees steer clear of these gambling establishments for fear of their reputations. Stock broking firm UOB Kay Hian was recently reported to have sent a memo to some staff asking them to avoid the casinos. Fashion retailer and property group Second Chance Properties has actually banned its management staff from setting foot in the gaming halls of both integrated resorts. That’s on top of the raft of measures to deter locals from gambling that the government has already introduced. These include a $100 entry levy, a programme that allows individuals to exclude their family members from the casinos, and requiring casino operators to confine advertising to tourists. Following recent press reports of junket agents operating at Marina Bay Sands, it seems likely that the authorities will continue monitoring the casinos closely. The government is still crafting its rules for junket operations.

Clearly, even as the tills at the casinos are ringing loudly, Singapore is still quietly calibrating its tolerance for the industry. It is worth noting that some gambling jurisdictions have rules that exclude large segments of their local population. For instance, Muslims in Malaysia are prohibited from entering the casino at the Genting Highlands resort. Citizens of Monaco aren’t allowed into its casinos, either, even though gambling is a major income generator for the principality.

Will Singapore ever go down the same road of barring its citizens from the casinos? Research house Macquarie warned last week of “political risk” to casinos in Singapore. It noted that the larger-than-expected numbers of locals visiting the casinos had been the subject of parliamentary discussion, and opined that the commissioning of a survey on local gambling trends in November could be a harbinger of a clampdown this year. “We think that if the prevalence of local gambling does not slow, the government may have to take political action  which may surprise the market.”

Macquarie also said in its report that visitation growth rates for Singapore’s casinos appear to be declining anyway, falling to 18% y-o-y in September from 30% in May. In the months ahead, it sees growth being sapped by the novelty factor wearing off, and the opening of new casino properties in Macau pulling visitors away. Macquarie has an “underperform” recommendation on Genting Singapore, and a price target of $1.83.

It looks like Singapore’s new casinos might not be so lucky in the year ahead.

Source/转贴/Extract/: TheEdgeSingapore issue 458
Publish date:07/02/11

The Edge Singapore portfolio -Hong Leong Asia

Hong Leong Asia

Almost a decade ago, Hong Leong Asia bought a slate of Chinese businesses to diversify away from the building materials sector, which was in a deep and prolonged slump. Now, even as the company has repositioned itself as a diesel engine maker and white goods supplier in China, its building materials business has come roaring back.

The company is one of Singapore’s two largest suppliers of ready-mixed concrete. It also has a range of other related operations in precast concrete, cement, granite and steel bars both here and in Malaysia. It also has a 72.8% stake in Tasek Corp, a Malaysia listed cement producer with a plant in Ipoh, Perak that operates 24 hours a day.

This year, companies involved in building and construction are likely to see strong demand for their products and services.

In Singapore, the Building and Construction Authority says demand is projected to reach between $22 billion and $28 billion this year. More than half of that will come from public construction such as that of the Institute of Technical Education’s third regional campus at Ang Mo Kio and contracts for Stage Three of the Downtown MRT Line from the Land Transport Authority.

In Malaysia, the government plans to spend RM230 billion ($96.3 billion) from 2011 to 2015 on building projects, 52 of which have been classified as high-impact projects that together will cost RM63 billion. Among the projects that have been identified are six highways costing RM19 billion, two power stations costing RM7 billion and a 34km-long light rail transit system costing RM8 billion.

Meanwhile, in China, Hong Leong Asia could benefit from higher domestic consumption as wages rise and the government tries to stimulate domestic spending to balance its trade surplus. One of Hong Leong Asia’s subsidiaries, Henan Xinfei Electric Co, makes refrigerators, freezers and airconditioners. Xinfei is one of the top two producers of refrigerators and freezers in China and, as the Chinese grow more affluent, move into urban areas or buy new homes, they will be purchasing more of Xinfei’s white goods.

Finally, Hong Leong Asia has a 28.2% stake in China Yuchai International, a US-listed manufacturer of diesel engines in China. The company is growing its market share for its diesel engines and is seeing strong profit growth. As China continues to build up its infrastructure, employing trucks and similar machinery, demand for the heavy-duty diesel engines that China Yuchai makes could rise further.

The biggest risk for Hong Leong Asia at the moment is the recent loss of its longtime CEO, Teo Tong Kooi. In November, the company announced that Teo had resigned to “attend to family matters”. Meanwhile, Tasek’s group CEO Gan Boon Ting also resigned at the start of this year. No announcements have been made about replacements and the executive directors of the respective companies are currently filling those positions. Another risk is the possibility of China’s introducing further policies to rein in inflation, which could hurt demand for consumer goods and heavy vehicles.

Second opinion
Coverage of Hong Leong Asia is rather patchy. In November, a week after Teo’s resignation, Phillip Securities Research initiated coverage on the company, calling it a “proxy to China’s rising wealth”. Yet, its “hold” recommendation on the stock is hardly inspiring. Both DBS Vickers and CIMB Research, which cover the stock, currently have “sell” calls on it, citing weak earnings performance and a general concern over tightening moves in China.

In a recent Singapore strategy report, CIMB named Hong Leong Asia as one of its top five stocks to sell. “With excess industry capacity, we expect Xinfei to remain a victim of competition with margin pressure. De-rating catalysts are weaker-than-expected earnings from Xin-fei,” the report says. 

Source/转贴/Extract/: TheEdgeSingapore issue 458
Publish date:07/02/11

The Edge Singapore portfolio -Singapore Exchange

Singapore Exchange

Forget the risks of its proposed merger with the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). The real story at Singapore Exchange in 2011 is more likely to be one of soaring trading volumes, as Asia attracts a wall of money from the US with a combination of better growth prospects, rising interest rates and appreciating currencies.

While benchmark market indices have rebounded strongly from the lows set in late 2008 and early 2009, trading volumes in the local market have actually stayed relatively weak over the last couple of years. The average value of securities traded daily on SGX was $2.12 billion in its FY2008 (it has a June year-end). In FY2009 and FY2010, even as the market soared, the average value of securities traded daily was actually significantly lower at just $1.23 billion and $1.54 billion, respectively. But market volumes now appear to be rising strongly as trading activity turns increasingly speculative.

For its 2QFY2011, SGX reported a marked improvement in trading activity to $1.77 billion. That’s a 30.2% improvement from a year ago. As a result, revenues from clearing and access rose 16% and 28%, respectively. Revenue from the overall securities division was up 20% to $81 million.

Meanwhile, the rate of new listings has been showing a promising revival. In January alone, SGX saw a total of five new listings. And, Hutchison Whampoa’s potential mega IPO of its deep-water container port businesses in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau is now on the cards. The excitement created by new companies and trusts hitting the market could well keep trading volumes on an uptrend in the months ahead.

SGX has also launched initiatives to boost its own trading volumes. Among them are a new, super-fast trading engine, the scrapping of the lunch-time break and the introduction of new rules to accommodate the listing of early-stage mineral, and oil-and gas companies. Not everyone agrees that these moves will be positive for stock investors, dealers and remisiers, or companies trying to raise money to fund their long-term growth. But holders of shares in SGX have reason for cheer.

The main risk to owning SGX this year is the return of extreme risk-aversion in financial markets, perhaps sparked by fresh economic crises or geopolitical strife. A slump in market indices and trading volumes would turn the spotlight again on the proposed SGX-ASX merger, and the costs SGX is running up in trying to make the deal work.

Second opinion
In a recent report, Kim Eng analyst James Koh says SGX is making all the right moves. “Although attention continues to centre on the proposed SGX-ASX merger, which management remains confident of pulling off, that shouldn’t distract us from the otherwise steady numbers and promising organic growth initiatives,” Koh says. He expects the all-day trading rule to boost market activity about 10%. He also thinks the current low-interest-rate environment will also be a positive, as there will be more demand for products such as local government bonds and corporate bonds, which are traded on the SGX too.

On the other hand, CIMB Research analyst Kenneth Ng has a “sell” call on SGX. He has cut his price target on the stock to factor in lower trading volumes, and some $20 million in transaction costs for the merger SGX is pursuing with ASX. He also says there is a large arbitrage gap between the share prices of SGX and ASX at the moment, and so he expects the share price of SGX to fall, while ASX’s share price rises.

 By Joan Ng


Source/转贴/Extract/: TheEdgeSingapore issue 458
Publish date:07/02/11

GMG Global Limited– Rising rubber prices could benefit. (CIMB)

GMG Global Limited– Rising rubber prices could benefit.
• Rubber reversed yesterday’s price decline on the back of speculation of increased Chinese purchases following the CNY celebrations to replenish depleted stockpiles. Jul-delivery futures gained as much as 2.1% this morning on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange.

• Going forward, rubber prices are expected to stay up, as farmers reduce production during the wintering period of February to May, when rubber trees shed leaves and latex production declines.

• According to the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand, some plantation areas in northeast Thailand have already entered the low-output season.

• GMG Global could be a potential beneficiary of rising rubber prices going forward.

• GMG Global is an investment holding company whose subsidiaries operate rubber plantations in Africa and Indonesia.

• According to consensus estimates, GMG is currently trading at 9.3x CY11 P/E.

• Investors interested in riding the rubber wave might want to look at GMG as a possible proxy.

• We have attached a technical analysis for GMG.

Technicals – GMG Global (GGL SP; S$0.295; Buy)




• Prices continued to trade sideways, swing from above to below and back above its moving averages. It appears that a triangle could be taking place here.

• Its MACD has just moved back into positive territory while its RSI remained above the 50-pts neutral mark. Both indicators suggest that there is still a good chance of more follow through buying ahead.

• Traders may opt to buy now with a stop placed below the support at S$0.285 or below the key support at S$0.275. We expect prices to take out the old high of S$0.345 to test the S$0.365 levels next as long as the S$0.275 level is not breached. The following resistance is at S$0.40.


Source/转贴/Extract/:CIMB Research
Publish date:09/02/11

船运贸易量还需几年 才能恢复金融危机前水平

(2011-02-10)
船运市场的贸易量要恢复到金融危机前的水平,还需要几年的时间。

  新加坡船务公会(SSA)会长张松声昨晚在公会的新春酒会上致辞时这么说。

  他指出,去年船运业出现了一些增长,不过这些增长是相对2008年和2009年的水准而言。业者应该继续克己自律,保持乐观和谨慎,以长远的眼光对待未来。

  张松声将于今年6月卸任船务公会会长,他已任职八年。公会将在6月选举新一届的理事会以及会长。

  船务公会已在两个月前向财政部呈交了预算案愿望单。张松声说:“我们非常担心,美元疲软和新元的强劲,加上通胀攀升,导致经商成本上涨,会抵消船运业的复苏进展。”

  船务公会提出的建议包括:增强船只融资业务的竞争力、推出更多税务优惠和其他支持海事业增长的提议,目的是进一步促进新加坡作为国际海事中心的地位。

  两个星期前,船务公会和新加坡海事基金(SMF)组织了新加坡船舶买卖合同(Singapore Ship Sale Form)的一项跟进讨论会,获得了良好的反应。

  张松声指出,索马里海岸和东非的海盗问题正越来越严重。船务公会和联合国秘书长潘基文合作,支持国际海事组织(IMO)针对海盗的行动计划。

  这个周详的计划聚集了各个国家、区域、机构和行业,关注更可持续和有效的对抗海盗的方案。

  张松声说,我国今年4月将举办第六届“新加坡海事周”,届时也将举行亚洲海事展(Sea Asia),希望业者积极参与。他表示,他对理事会成员、委员会成员、公会会员、海事机构等表示感谢。

到目前为止,船务公会共有393名公司会员和两名个人会员,昨晚12名新会员获得会员证书。

  我国海事业去年表现亮丽,其中新加坡港口的集装箱码头,在这段期间共处理了2840万个标准箱(TEU),比去年同期多了近一成。

  燃油销售量更取得双位数增长,年比上涨12.3%,达到4090万吨,创下了新高


Source/转贴/Extract/: 《联合早报》
Publish date:10/02/11

Malaysia Airlines 4QFY10 results preview (ECM)

Malaysia Airlines
Price (RM) 2.05
52-week Range (RM) 1.80 – 2.39
BuyTarget Price: RM2.95
4QFY10 results preview

• 4Q and FY10 operating numbers in line with estimates
Passenger traffic (RPK) for 4QFY10 was up 10.1% y-o-y to 10,060m km in line with the 1.4% y-o-y increase in passengers carried of 3.4m during the quarter. Meanwhile, capacity (ASK) grew 8.9% y-o-y to 13,005m km. With growth in RPK outpacing ASK, load factor increased by 0.8 ppt y-o-y to 77.4%. For the full-year, RPK of 37,838m km grew 15.0% y-o-y, while ASK was higher by 3.7% y-o-y to 49,624m km. Load factor went up by 7.5 ppt y-o-y to 76.2%. Meanwhile, total passengers carried in 2010 was 13.1m, an improvement of 9.8% y-o-y with March, June-July and December being the busiest months of the year. MAS FY10 passenger traffic and capacity statistics were in line with our expectations.

• Q-o-q improvement in cargo division
MASkargo’s operations showed distinct improvement in 4Q10 compared to 3Q10 as cargo tonnage and capacity in October recovered from September’s slowdown. Load tonne kilometres (LTK) rose 9.3% q-o-q to 647.7m km (+2.1% y-o-y) whereas capacity (ATK) picked up by 8.0% q-oq to 890.7m km (+4.3% y-o-y). Weight load factor improved by 0.9 ppt to 72.7% (-1.6 ppt y-o-y). For FY10, LTK, ATK and load factor increased by 18.2%, 11.4% and 4.3 ppt, respectively. The FY10 cargo operational statistics also came within our expectations.

• FY10 results to beat estimates
Based on the operating statistics, we expect MAS to turn in operating profit of RM99.8m (>100% y-o-y, -18.6% q-o-q) on raised fares and surcharges. However, due to the increase in jet fuel cost, operating cost is expected at RM3.53bn (+6.9% y-o-y, +7.8% q-o-q). We also anticipate hedging gains of c.RM124.4m. As a result, anticipated FY10 operating profit is RM226.4m (>100% y-o-y) beating our estimated operating loss of RM65.6m. Adjusted net loss (excluding aircraft delay compensation of RM329m) should narrow to RM141.3m from our estimated loss of RM493.5m.

• Maintain BUY
The expected continued turnaround in MAS’ results underpins our optimism that yield recovery is well underway. We reiterate our Buy call with unchanged target price of RM2.95 based on 6x EV/EBITDAR. While we expect 4Q10 results to beat our estimates, our FY11 and FY12 earnings have already factored in the expected yield recovery. No changes will be made at this juncture pending further guidance from management during MAS 4Q10 results’ call conference on 25 February.


Source/转贴/Extract/: ECM Libra Capital
Publish date:10/02/2011
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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