Saturday, February 5, 2011

退热堵钱系列专题二:感受热钱气焰 大马避险天堂也升温

2011/02/05 5:44:24 PM
●南洋商报 联合报道:唐淑菁、刘慧欣

经济两极化之间的差异,正好成为市场游资的一条财路。于是,发达市场的游资如热浪一波一波的席卷新兴市场,不断吹大资产泡沫。

就连向来被誉为避险天堂的马来西亚,也感觉这股不断升温的热度。虽然已惊人升势走高,但此涨幅非但没有制造危机,反而在目前处于调整喘定之后,还有望再走高,更有分析员乐观预测,超级大牛市正兴冲冲朝马股狂奔……

经济两极催生游资

两年前的金融风暴,让各国笼罩在阴云之下,虽无一国能从风暴中幸免于难,但随着各国经济复苏程度不一,全球经济格局也经历了大洗牌。

于是,我们看到了两极化的现象——发达国家经济复苏之路一路颠簸;地球另一端的亚洲国家却担心过热问题。

经济两极化之间的差异,正好成为市场游资的一条财路。于是,发达市场的游资如热浪朝新兴市场拍打,不断吹大资产泡沫。

就连向来被誉为避险天堂的马来西亚,也感觉到这股温热。

推动令吉走高

马银行投资研究经济学家苏海米指出,截至去年1月至9月,进入马股的外资从前年同期的50亿令吉,大涨至171亿令吉。

在按季比较时,我们能更明显地看到增加的趋势。

资本帐目显盈余

“首季的外资流入为51亿令吉、第二季59亿,第三季更到了62亿令吉,主要流向金融与保险、制造业及石油与天然气领域。”

资金涌入也推动令吉走高,截至目前为止,令吉兑美元企在3.06令吉水平。

根据资料,2008年第四季及2009年首季,大马面对了大批资金流出的问题,但很快在2009年第三季开始因资金涌入而复苏。

至于组合投资方面,第三季的资金流入持续增长至164亿令吉,成功从2008-2009年的839亿令吉净资金流出,扭转至去年9个月以来的414亿令吉净组合资金流入。

大量资金流入的情况也让马来西亚,在去年第二季的资本帐户出现盈余。

量化宽松资金泛滥

联储局在出台QE2之前,一些新兴市场已显露过热迹象,美国去年11月在开印钞机“印钱自救”,进一步汇集另一条更大洪流涌入新兴市场,其热钱规模甚至比10年前亚洲金融风暴期更大。

数据显示,在联储局出台QE2之前,短期资本早已因巨大的利差诱惑而涌向新兴市场。

去年第三季度,流向印度、印尼、韩国、菲律宾、中国台湾、泰国和越南等地股市的资本共计115亿美元,推动当地股市上涨了8%-23%。同期,韩元、菲律宾比索、泰铢兑美元汇率均出现5%以上的升值,印度、印尼等国货币也呈升值趋势。

上述资金还热得烫手,联储局为振兴经济再次提出量化宽松政策,预计将让多达9000亿美元(2.77兆令吉)地资金,于明年6月底之前氾滥全球。

大马也是理想市场

国际货币基金组织(IMF)亚太部驻新加坡代表拉维巴拉克里斯南在研究报告中指出,尽管亚洲新兴经济体的资本流入迅速膨胀,但目前仍然没有达到2007年的流量高位,这意味着接下来将面临更加强大的热钱压力。

花旗集团中国区投资研究与分析部主管、董事总经理沈明高也说:“和1990年代相比,此轮热钱规模较大,但新兴市场的规模也大,包括中国、印度在内的大型经济体也卷入其中。

在上述情况下,区域经济学家普遍认为,两极化的投资会成为2011年的主流趋势。马来西亚、印尼和泰国目前仍然是热钱的理想市场。

马股涨势外资有功

11月向来是马股的淡季,过去3年的11月马股皆“平淡”交货,但去年11月上旬马股却涨势凌厉,而且创下高点,外资持股权也相对增高,对于这股涨势,热钱居功不小。

抽佣经纪陈玉麟告诉本报,近期市场大涨并重返1500点水平,包括热钱在内的资金,是推动涨潮的主要动力。

“这些资金很难追踪,但我相信他们已经觊觎大马市场已久,外资大概在马股1100点至1200点时,就已经做好进场准备,尤其是对冲基金多少已经渗进马股。”

马兴业金融阿玛纳资产管理总执行长林史格指出,相比第一波资金,美国再次提出量化宽松政策所推动的第二波资金,将比之前规模更大,之前未到来的资金,现在也会赶搭列车进入新兴市场。

Areca Capital资产总执行长黄德明告诉本报,虽然马股非外资首选,但很快就会被列入他们的投资范畴,美国因QE2制造出的游资,一定会找到投资地点。

“根据10月份大马交易所公布的数据,10月份外国投资机构的交易量占总数的8.95%,但成交值的比重却达26.49%,显示蓝筹股仍然是外资进场时,热衷的股票。

逆MSCI指数而行

另外,大马“避险天堂”的形象,也随着热钱涌入及近期股市活络而开始改变,走势不再和区域市场背道而驰,摆脱向来“低贝他比”的情况。

里昂证券大马私人有限公司研究主管甄洁晶说:“马股向来都和MSCI亚太指数反向而行;当区域股市在2000年至2004年期间大涨时,马股却低迷;反观2008年区域大跌,马股却超越大市。

小资本股料受惠

但是,进入2010年马股和MSCI走势却开始同步上行,显示马股又回到贝他比时代。”

黄氏星展投资管理总投资长吴光章说:“发达市场的低利率,碰上新兴市场的高回酬、高利率,刚好可以吸引资金流入,我认为新兴市场是去年‘最甜美’的市场,而且能维持增长率。”

他也引援基金追踪机构EPFR Global公布的数据说,去年底新兴市场将有多大640亿美元的资金,反观发达市场的股市,将有高达370亿美元的净赎回。

“美国的QE2措施,将吸引更多资金持续流入,而且预料有更多公司在新兴市场挂牌,企业活动不断持续为市场注入热度,让新兴市场可以保持扬升趋势。”

看好马股潜能

马兴业金融阿玛纳资产管理总执行长林史格说,马股将因为资金流入受激励,外资已进一步看到大马及区域市场的潜能。 他说:“第一波资金涌入时,只流入特定领域,外资大部分买蓝筹股,而且是素质最好的公司。” “外资有进场后,(这些股项)估值却变得太高,大概从10倍本益比,增长到15倍,因此规模较小的公司,将有望受惠。”

重返超级大牛市近在咫尺

一些乐观的市场人士更相信,马股不仅具备增长潜能,甚至一步步迈入超级大牛市,无需过于忧虑过热问题。

93年荣景重现

黄氏星展投资管理将大马目前的荣景和过去情况相比对发现,目前马股前景类似93至95年的“超级大牛市”,而要重返大牛市也非不可能。

黄氏星展投资管理总投资长吴光章指出,虽然新兴市场已出现“涨势惊人”的情况,但美国的货币政策、本地低利率水平、及贸易盈余充裕等因素,将推动大马在内的区域股市继续上涨

另外,新兴市场的基本面强稳,负债率偏低,也将驱动股市继续往高迈进。

政府积极吸资

“与此同时,大马政府最近积极吸资,规划经济转型计划及力求突破的决心,多少吸引了外资的购兴;另外,马股估值合理也是外资买入的原因。”

同时,日本野村证券则表示,自2008年全球金融风暴以来,大马股市在三大主题、五大特征加持下,已具备重返1993年超级牛市条件。

“马股如今已呈现与90年代初相似的五个超级牛市特征,包括:经济复苏、市场庞大游资、轮流炒作、并购热潮、以及散户活跃于股市。”

由于马股已出现超级牛市特征,加上令吉兑美元汇率有望增值13%,预计富时隆综指可进一步攀高15%。富时隆综指明年杪可达1703点目标。

该行也说,股市未达巅峰前,投资者都会感到舒适,但目前的马股中仍未出现散户疯狂买入的情况,这也表示马股还未达高峰。

区域房产升势惊人

热钱除了炒热股市,区域间升势惊人的房地产价格,也是热钱的杰作之一。

台湾房屋旗下的亚洲房市风险管理顾问公司调查显示,亚洲八大国际城市的房价年涨幅排名中,香港、深圳、北京包揽前三名,分别为22%、19.28%和17.61%。

亚洲主要城市的房价平均价格,香港以每坪(一坪约为3.3平方米)202万元(约20.2万令吉)的价格居首,东京以每坪172万元(约17.2万令吉)居次,第三至五名分别为新加坡112.9万元(约11.29万令吉)、韩国首尔86万元(约8.6万令吉)和台北46.9万元(约4.69万令吉)。

亚洲房地产市场资金流入迄今仍未出现放缓迹象。根据房地产服务公司世邦魏理仕的数据,对亚洲房地产市场的投资正在加快。

世邦魏理仕称,去年前三个季度,亚洲房地产直接投资总额较去年同期翻番,达到460亿美元(约1439亿令吉)。

去年第三季度,亚洲房地产投资额较上季度跳增53%。与此形成鲜明对比的是,欧洲房地产投资额同期下跌6%。亚洲第三季度房地产投资总额中,约有17%来自海外投资者,这一比例高于第二季度的14%。世邦魏理仕执行董事聂安达预测,去年亚洲房地产直接投资总额将突破600亿美元(约1878亿令吉),远高于去年的378亿美元(约1183亿令吉)。

聂安达表示:“这仍是以亚洲投资者为主导的市场反弹。欧美投资者也开始加入行列,想了解更多情况。”

大马房市热度温和

相比之下大马的房价虽然增加,但热度却显得温和,第三季的房屋认购率虽然下降,但平均价格却高于前季,进一步反映价格攀升现象。

据国家产业资料中心(NAPIC)资料,在去年上半年内,本地住宅产业的平均售价按年跃升了16%至21万2815令吉,去年同期为18万3807令吉。

在吉隆坡,平均房价的增幅则更为显著,从去年同期的36万2569令吉激增34%至48万5435令吉。

不过,国家产业资料中心(NAPIC)第三季的数据却显示,大马房屋的认购及推介情况,开始有些放缓。

资料显示,去年第三季新推出的产业有4998项,比首季的1万2971项及第二季的1万881项明显减少。

发展趋软价格走高

另外,第三季的认购率为4.8%,比首季的5.6%及第二季的6.4%少。

虽然如此,第三季的房屋平均价格为23万1930令吉,比第二季的21万3597令吉,高出8.58%。

上述情况或显示,大马产业的发展势头有趋软迹象,不过价格仍然走高,而且第三季的价格走势,也明显比去年首季及次季0.73%的涨幅高出许多,突显市场的火热情况。

有分析员强调,房屋涨得太快,或打击真正有意置屋者的购买意愿,导致认购率滑落,市场供应逐步过剩等问题发生,这刚好是第三季房屋市场的情况。

虽然面对上述困扰,但市场人士普遍相信大马产业市场还会进一步扬升。

综合产业咨询公司Rahim & Co.指出,若以城市楼价计算,去年首半年吉隆坡一带的楼价,处于每平方尺1000至1200令吉。

相比香港每平方尺的6000令吉、新加坡3000令吉,吉隆坡1000至1200令吉的价格仍不足为虑。

Rahim & Co.也说,在次贷危机爆发之前,由于需求很高,加上许多外国买家到我国来购屋,吉隆坡市中心高级公寓的曾扬升至每平方尺2000至2500令吉的水平,显示我国楼价仍有扬升空间。

侨丰投资研究高级分析员周恩雄也预料,我国房价还会继续涨,一直到2012年至2013年才会到达顶峰。


Source/转贴/Extract/: 南洋商报
Publish date:05/02/11

退热堵钱系列专题(一):亚股元月“大变脸” 新兴市场热钱回撤?

2011/02/04 5:11:02 PM
●南洋商报 联合报道:唐淑菁、刘慧欣

2011年伊始,亚洲区域股市延续去年的勇态,展现其表现牛气腾腾,就在各界对本区域做出前景非常看俏的乐观评语时,区域股市却出现“多云转阴”的状况。

对于大多数亚洲新兴经济体,包括大马来说,2010年的代名词是资本热土。

整个2010年度,东南亚股市走势远远领先全球水平,泰国、菲律宾、印尼、马来西亚等国股市位居全球涨幅前十,然而新年的钟声敲响后,该地区的股市似乎受到了警钟的惊吓,纷纷下挫。

在今年1月,印度的Sensex指数出现连续7天下跌的紧张情势,孟加拉国股市股指也上演“超级过山车”,而印尼和泰国的股市的表现更是直落,至于菲律宾的股民也在积极寻找股市避风港,而大马股市也在创下1576.95高点之后,欲振乏力。

2010年表现优异的东南亚股市自新年伊始出现了令人不安的、通胀导致的抛售。

未来随着热钱持续向成熟市场尤其是美国回流,随着粮食价格的走高、通胀形势的恶化,东南亚股市的调整虽不至于不会对全球市场造成太大影响,但预计其跌势料将延续。

东南亚股市震荡

印度的Sensex指数在本月中出现连续7天下跌的窘境,今年以来累计跌幅达10.99%,继泰国、韩国和巴西本月加息之后,匈牙利及以色列央行本月24日宣布上调基准利率,印度央行也在25日采取同样措施。

值得一提的是,这已是印度央行自2010年3月以来第7次升息。

另一方面,印尼股市综合指数今年以来该指数已经下跌了近7.95%。

菲律宾的PSE综合指数下跌近7.61%,泰国股市下跌6.65%,而大马股市也在这期间则微扬0.07%。

摩根资产管理投资服务副总裁谭慧敏认为,短期内东南亚市场将会继续波动;印尼和印度等地的估值已经不再便宜,事实上还有点昂贵。

市场近期担忧新兴市场通胀升温超预期,或对股市产生负面影响。

有分析认为,新兴市场长线仍看好,理由是全球经济复苏步伐不一,令资金由已发展国家外流至新兴市场,预期新兴市场消费主义将持续高涨,带动经济增长。

通胀吓退热钱?

近几个月来,亚洲各国股市流入几十亿外国资金,国外投资者原先希望通过亚洲新兴市场强于美国、欧洲和日本的经济增长率而获益。有迹象表明国外资金开始撤退。

事实上,从最近情况看,东南亚国家出现了通胀加剧、热钱加速流出的态势。

国际货币基金组织指出,东南亚国家需要上调利率以抑制通货膨胀。而随著印度等国也全面退出经济刺激政策,市场担心东南亚国家会进入货币财政双紧缩的政策通道。

“2010年第三季度后,泛滥的流动性使得东南亚股市出现一定泡沫,而通胀形势恶化更使得各国政府采取措施调控市场。”

在金融服务商India Infoline Group的主席杰恩看来,今年以来市场有两至三个因素导致国外的机构投资者紧张和不安。这些因素包括:股票估值的上升、高利率(会降低公司的资本支出)以及不断上升的通胀率。

资金净流出92亿

根据新兴市场投资基金研究公司(EPFR)调查报告显示,在截至1月26日的一周里,全球新兴市场股票基金的资金净流出量超过30亿美元(92亿令吉)。

而与此同时,发达市场股票基金在过去8周中第7次有资金的流入。

这是过去5周里首次出现资金流出现象,且是自2008年第三季以来的最大单周流出量。

发达市场股票基金则持续吸引资金净流入。

EPFR指出,受中国与印度通胀压力高涨、印尼股市急剧调整以及美元走弱等因素的影响,亚洲(除日本外)股票基金的资金净流出量创过去37周的最高纪录。

印尼流出10年最多

其中,中国股票基金资金净流出量创自2010年5月以来的新高,印尼股票基金则遭遇过去10年最大规模的资金流出。

在拉美股市基金方面,通胀和加息预期同样也成为了国际投资者的最大担忧,当地股市在过去7周里出现第5周资金净流出。不过,俄罗斯和非洲地区的股市基金上周则吸引了资金净流入。

印度外资已撤三分之一

另一方面,统计数字显示,进入印度的外资已经减少近三分之一。

对于经济成长近9%的印度而言,这个数字可能令人讶异。但是印度央行上周的报告显示,在印度,要取得环境许可和土地所有权极为费时,政府繁文缛节,公共建设落后,在在使得外资却步。

在2010年,外来直接投资(FDI)到印度的金额,较前一年减少32%,仅剩240亿美元(734亿令吉)。

同时间,印度的竞争对手取得更多外资。新加坡的FDI增长122%,达370亿美元(1132亿令吉);中国增加6.3%,金额达1000亿美元(3060亿令吉)。最令人刮目相看的是马来西亚 ,FDI增长高达410%,金额为70亿美元(214亿令吉)。

获利回吐布局不变

瑞银(UBS)表示,最近确实看到一些对冲基金在调整短期的投资策略——他们对一些表现比较好的市场如南亚进行货币回吐,流入一些原来表现比较差的市场,比如像美国、日本。

另外,新兴市场区域内部也在进行调整,从印尼、马来西亚、菲律宾、泰国等地调整到了像韩国、台湾、新加坡等地。

“新兴市场的GDP已经占了全球的一半了,但是在MSCI全球的指数里面,新兴市场占的权重仅为10%左右,从这个意义上来说,包括索罗斯等长期基金还会往新兴市场布局。”

12月外储劲扬190亿 热钱积极流入大马

截至2010年12月31日止,我国储备金按年增加10.1%至3286亿令吉,或相等于1065亿美元,国际储备金于2周内劲扬190亿令吉,显示热钱的流入未象8、9月般猖狂,但流入势头依然积极。主要是因为出口增加,加上外国投资基金流入数额庞大所致。

银行间借贷增

与此同时,国行在期间吸入的游资,也从12月上旬的2374亿令吉,增加至2430亿令吉,银行间的借贷活动增加,是推高此数据的原因之一。

虽然热钱仍然充斥市场,但分析员指出,市场流窜的热钱已减少,此趋势料将维持至未来几个月。

第三季的国际收支平衡虽按年猛涨213%,也已有冷却迹象。

固定收入滑落

截至2010年第三季,热钱的流入额已比首季减少将近一半,按季比较时,也缩减24%,显示2010年第四季热钱将会减少。

另一方面,外资持有的固定收入投资额,已在11月杪,从1270亿令吉的高峰,滑落至1186亿令吉。

“11月份的固定收入投资额较10月份低,这也是大马在连续8个月攀升后首次滑落。这或意味外资流入的情况已经抵达高点,未来几个月的趋势开始转下。”

外资流入或见顶

达证券指出,热钱走势可用国际收支平衡(BOP)加以计算,若得出“负数”,则反映已有“未记录的资金”(即热钱)流入。

在计算后发现,今年首季及第二季,得到负305亿令吉及负189亿令吉的数额,但第三季开始放缓至负142亿令吉。

另一方面,短期资金累积,推高国际储备金。目前,外汇储备可应付8.5个月的融资,及4.1倍的短期外债,这降低了资金管制的需要。

金融风暴阴影仍在

万一外资再大举的撤资,对于本区域又会造成怎样的打击,1997年及1998年的一场风暴,将区域打得遍体麟伤。10多年过去了,但那阴影仍在。

1997年,一场从泰国卷起的金融风暴,把东南亚各小国烧的体无完肤,泰铢与令吉首当其冲,大马政府当时更因抑制令吉进一步受到狙击,而宣布实施让全球震惊的资金管制措施,即让令吉与美吉以3.80令吉与美元挂钩。

泰铢的崩溃对区域资本市场所带来的骨牌效应,也进一步蔓延到其他地区如新加坡、马来西亚、印尼、台湾、日本、香港、韩国乃至亚洲北部的俄罗斯均受重创。

在那10年间,亚洲各国采取了很多措施,以补救创伤累累的金融体制,包括大马通过成立国家资产管理机构(Danaharta)来拯救国内各大困陷企业。

另外,银行体系注销呆账,重组资本结构,并强化企业监管,同时也重整企业资产负债表。

大马在1997年实施的资管制受到国际货币基金组织的讥责,发达国家在过去对于资金管制都是采取冷淡的态度;并认为这是一种干预市场的操作系操作,并也违反全球金融市场的程序。

大马资管全球效仿

处在东南亚区域的马来西亚,在世界的位置并不大,然而这个小国于1997年所实施的资金管制措施,除了使之度过金融危机之外,孰不知这项措施成为了10年之后,各央行为对抗热钱所采用的正当对策。

自去年美国实施量化宽松政策以来,愈来愈多国家透过资金管制来应对热钱的冲击,而IMF更於今年2月发表报告,为外汇管制平反,指在某些情况下,外汇管制确实可以稳定经济,防止过多热钱流入出现的副作用。

过去10多年来,东协在各成员国的努力及通过更为审慎的财政与货币政策下,逐一重返各自的轨道,并也著重国内需求,随之见到的是外汇储备日益上升,取代了以往严重依赖海外短期资金流入的局面。

东南亚央行沉着应战

面对著美国持续量化宽松货币政策带来的巨大热钱涌入压力,全球各国央行至今依然不敢丝毫松劲。

东南亚地区近期来出现庞大的资金流入,10多年前的经济创痛仍在,为面对重蹈覆辙之痛,决议者也不得不使出浑身招数来应对这一场硬战。

备受热钱之苦的地区经济体也在积极合力对抗外来的挑战。

印尼央行副总裁哈利姆早前就已表示,东南亚国家将举行会晤,就通过跨境协议监管资本流动进行讨论。

区域之间如新加坡、马来西亚及泰国都是外向型经济的国家,由于对全球市场的依赖程度非常高,因此,亚洲经济的动摇就是对这些国家造成牵一发而动全身的状况。

成热钱目标

美欧日等国的宽松货币政策,已促使大量资金流向新兴经济体,推动当地本币升值,同时催生资产泡沫,给央行制定货币政策带来严峻挑战。

这个在区域被1997年的金融风暴灼伤后迅速复原,再成为热钱紧紧跟随的目标。

有数据显示,东南亚区内的印尼、泰国、马来西亚的外国直接投资(FDI)占GDP的比重达24%,这与风暴前的26%非常接近。

政经改革获肯定

在这10年内,欧美的金融危机虽也让东协区域面对池鱼之殃,但庆幸的是,以更强姿态鼎立的东南亚区域,包括大马并未面对如上一次几乎遭受到的灭顶之灾,反之在这段期间在政治上所进行的改革和经济发展中所付出努力,已获外资肯定。


Source/转贴/Extract/: 南洋商报
Publish date:04/02/2011

2011全球財經大預言

Created 02/02/2011 - 19:20

全球經濟經歷了2008至2009年的全球金融海嘯,2010年至2011年仍餘波蕩漾。

2010年的雙底衰退隨美國去年杪祭出次輪量化寬鬆,暫時消解了疑慮。2010庚寅金虎年無法解開的困局,會否於寓意“動如脫兔”的2011辛卯兔年,有了新的動向與格局?

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)最近預測,全球實質經濟體經濟成長,由原有的4.2%調高至4.4%,2012年保持4.5%。

該組織也預測,新興經濟體的經濟成長,超越受經濟衰退、債信危機打擊的美國與歐洲。

新興經濟體成長以中國、印度馬首是瞻,但成長路上並不平順,隨著食品、原產品價格暴漲,高通膨是兩個新經濟體政府的一大挑戰。

在開展經濟成長的旅程中,如何制定適當策略壓服高通膨,則是新興經濟體後院的事;這後院一旦失火,經濟成長的前門,亦將殃及池魚,甚至生靈塗炭,不可不慎!

預言:人民幣推升亞幣?
祈求:財源滾滾人讚好

若中國真被通膨章魚纏得無法脫身,可能順水推舟讓人民幣升值,一方面更合了美國胃口;儘管人民幣升值對中國出口企業構成壓力,但也降低進口商品價格,特別是以美元計價的一些原料。

若到達此種程度,鄰近的亞洲貨幣,包括大馬的馬幣可能受帶動,而跟著升值。

預言:美股牛熊角力?
祈求:百尺竿頭節節高

市場目前的共識很明確-美國經濟可望持續回穩,股市會有好的一年;公債則因為恐懼因素消失,變得較有風險;“風險資產”像是股票和商品,可望在中國及新興市場帶動下,持續有所成長。

雖然絕大多數機構看好兔年美股仍持續飆升,但至少有兩家投資公司警告,美股今年來到高點後,可能自此滑落,步入熊市。

Ned Davis Research投資團隊,預期在今年上半年,標普500指數就可望回到2007年的歷史高點1565.15。不過他們也預期,來到年中的高點時,可能造成利率上升,10年期公債利率有機會到達4%或更高,提昇投資者的樂觀情緒。

他們認為,站上高點,也代表自2009年3月以來的牛市循環走到底,開始新的熊市。要是如此,這次的牛市歷時長達9季。自1900年以來,共34個牛市,只有10個到達9季或更長。

同樣持“終極熊市”看法的,還有United-ICAP首席技術分析師金莫曼(Walter Zimmermann)。他警告,一旦崩跌,多樣化的投資策略也保護不了投資者的損失,就像前次金融風暴。理由就在,這些資產投資漲跌密切相關。

預言:法引爆新歐債危機?
祈求:時來運轉福滿門

很多人認為法國與德國一樣是歐盟強國,但法國的財政赤字狀況比意大利更嚴重,而且失業率高、經濟增速緩慢。

專家指出,法國相當抗拒改革,任何一丁點工時延長、延後退休或是公共福利調整,都會引發大規模抗議。

因此,若要細數哪一國會步上愛爾蘭、希臘、葡萄牙以及西班牙的債務危機後塵,非法國莫屬。

預言:全球6月轉運?
祈求:扭轉乾坤財運到

美國通膨升溫,聯儲局未來半年內加息的可能性大增,第二輪量化寬鬆政策將在6月到期,那將是一個重要的時間轉折點。

經濟學家預測,如果量化寬鬆政策的累積效應不斷得到體現,經濟真正步入復甦階段,聯儲局可能會突然啟動加息進程,一旦如此,將促使全球資本迅速回流美國,美元將會迅速出現強勁反彈。

謝國忠指出,美國財政刺激的目的顯而易見,就是想讓奧巴馬能在2012年連任。

他分析,要令奧巴馬得以連任,就需要有3個條件:新興經濟體繼續通膨,維持了美國的出口;歐洲的主權債務危機支撐了美元的價值,抵銷聯儲局的量化寬鬆;原油價格不會飆升,以減少美國刺激政策的效果。

預言:美元人為貶值?
祈求:財源廣進鴻圖展

疲弱的美元也是美國拯救經濟的手段之一,今年聯儲局可能也讓美元逐步貶值,以反映美國的高通膨,及短期利率大大低於通膨率,也即負實際利率。如果聯儲局能在將5%的負實際利率保持10年,美國的負債可減少40%,會回到歷史平均的水平上。

多數分析師預測,聯儲局不會在美國經濟轉強之前提高利率。按照這個邏輯,因受制於美國經濟疲軟以及無力吸引資本的低利率,美元可能復甦無望。

不過,雖然利率較低,但美國經濟仍將持續疲弱,可能影響美元走勢。

預言:商品續比天高?
祈求:金兔增產慶豐收

“吃飯皇帝大”,但兔年基於全球氣候異常,到處天災人禍,世人吃飯與溫飽問題,因為食品、原產品價格節節走高,潛在打擊一些國家的經濟成長,並可能會造成社會動亂的根源。

IMF提出警訊,高企的大宗商品和食品價格可能危害發展中國家的宏觀經濟穩定,並引發社會和政治局勢緊張。

專家預測,不管全球經濟如何轉變,也不管金融形勢如何轉化,短期內農產品、糧油的牛市格局似乎難以撼動。

全球氣候的異常變化將把所有農產品價格推至歷史高位。厄爾尼諾才剛過去,拉尼娜接踵而至,在澳洲小麥產區遭受水患的同時,南美阿根廷的大豆產區卻飽受熱浪襲擊,德國《油世界》因此估計其減產規模將達20%以上。

專家指出,中國、印度等新興國家強大的市場需求將會使供需長期處於緊張狀態,兔年全球農產品庫存和庫存消費比將會進一步走低,農產品價格未來仍將受到成本推動、災害天氣、消費增長、流動性支撐四大因素的整體發力而居高不下。

儘管一些國家如中國、印度政府,努力管控價格,但對類似管控可能對某些產品短期價格產生影響,但長時間而言,仍難以產生根本性的作用。

預言:全球面臨高通膨?
祈求:和氣生財萬事好

中國去年第四季國內生產總值(GDP)成長高於預期,升至9.8%,2010整年的成長則增加10.3%,一舉超越日本,成為世界第二經濟大國。

不過,中國的經濟過熱也引發嚴重通膨:12月消費價格指數(CPI)4.6%、生產價格指數(PPI)5.9%,顯示控制物價措施效果仍然有限,通膨壓力依舊居高不下。

類似中國的通膨情況,皆在在蔓延至全球其他地區。

通膨使全民購買力降低,“收入與分配受扭曲,加上好些國家沒有社會保障系統,或者涵蓋有限,尤使城市低收入戶最為脆弱。

一窮二白式的“發窮惡”,會藉各種方式爆發出來,中國乃至其他發展中國家發生的抗議與搶購只是端倪,這會是全球社會未來的亂源。


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source/转贴/Extract/:biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:02/02/2011

全年激漲278點‧虎年大紅盤封關

Created 02/02/2011 - 18:30

(吉隆坡2日訊)馬股金虎年“虎虎生風”,富時大馬綜指全年激漲278點或22.21%,今日更以大紅盤封關。分析員認為,儘管馬股現陷入短期調整,長期牛市基礎未變,農曆新年後有望止跌反彈,持續鴻“兔”大展。

一度暴漲16點
綜指收盤揚11.88點

儘管農曆新年長假前購興闌珊,惟在外圍投資氣息轉溫下,富時大馬綜指成功扭轉過去數日的跌勢,以起4.8點的1524.74點亮麗開盤,隨後漲勢在雲頂(GENTING, 3182, 主板貿服組)等藍籌股支撐下持續擴大,最高漲16.33點至1536.27點,並以1531.82點紅盤封關,揚11.88點或0.782%。

不過,雖然馬股今日只有半日行情,但市場交投情緒卻異常高漲,成交量高達15億3千190萬2千股,總值17億零194萬3千423令吉,遠較過去3個交易日為高。

回顧全年表現,金虎年延續“牛”氣,從1253.39點躍升22.21%至1531.82點水平,表現雖遜於牛年,但投資者還是笑不攏嘴。

礦務暴漲110%
科技敬陪末座

屬金的礦務領域在金虎年大殺四方,指數暴漲109.66%,穩坐冠軍寶座,產業領域走勢也不俗,以44.86%漲幅緊追在後,建築指數獲政府大型工程利多支撐,以28.84%漲幅屈居季軍,金融領域也賺個盆滿缽滿,全年指數起27.64%,名列第四。

反映馬股整體股市表現的富時大馬全股項指數則起25.3%,小資本股基準的創業板指數則微起1.97%封盤。

不過,科技領域表現敬陪末座,全年下挫8.09%,更是馬股唯一呈跌勢封盤的指數。

金兔年可創另一波新高

分析員認為,農曆年後金兔年開盤首日,只要國際股市沒有出現太大的利空,應可以延續金虎年封關日的走勢,再創另一波段新高。

“雖然股市已走高兩年,進入兔年第三個年頭,預料馬股仍有揚升空間,牛氣繼續奔跑。”

他補充,目前馬股進入調整僅是間中過程,反而是趁低扯購機會。特別是馬股是落後區域及投資不足股市,使馬股在兔年有希望是“耀眼亮麗”的一年。

農曆新年後有望彈高

僑豐研究表示,馬股農曆新年後有望反彈,主要是股市基本面持續完好,加上第四季企業財報季節可能促使分析員上調盈利預測,其中銀行、石油與天然氣和消費相關領域最受看好。

“我們的投資首選專注在聯昌集團(CIMB, 1023, 主板金融組)、亞洲航空(AIRASIA, 5099, 主板貿服組)等高獲利預期,柔佛醫藥保健(KPJ, 5878, 主板貿服組)和肯油企業(KENCANA, 5122, 主板貿服組)等落後和反彈股項。”

聯昌研究指出,儘管印尼通膨壓力和泰國政局不穩,可能削弱外資對馬股信心,但外資普遍開始對馬股重燃熱情,主要歸功於馬股過去2年亮麗成績,和整體正面前景預測。

維持‘加碼”評級

“市場仍有利可圖,我們維持馬股‘加碼’評級,2011年年終目標為1700點。雖然股市今年將以交易為主導,但我們的策略是加碼銀行、建築、油氣和產業等週期性領域,來最大化回酬表現。”




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Source/转贴/Extract/: biz.sinchew-i.c
Publish date:02/02/2011

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

America is spending again

Slew of positive economic news suggests a country in recovery
11:55 AM Feb 01, 2011
NEW YORK - Consumer spending in the United States rose more than forecast in December, giving the world's largest economy a lift heading into 2011.

Purchases, which account for about 70 per cent of the economy, increased 0.7 per cent after climbing 0.3 per cent the prior month, Commerce Department figures showed yesterday in Washington. Another report showed businesses expanded in January at the fastest pace in two decades.

Rising incomes and a cut in payroll taxes this year will probably continue to drive household demand, benefiting companies from Coach to Ford. Yesterday's spending report also showed the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge rose at the slowest pace on record, one reason policy makers are pushing ahead with a second round of monetary stimulus worth US$600 billion ($700 billion).

"We ended the quarter on a firmer note," said Deutsche Bank Securities chief US economist Joseph LaVorgna.

"We are going to see continued healthy spending in 2011. The inflation numbers are very tame. The Fed is going to stay right where they are."

The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago said yesterday its business barometer rose this month to 68.8, the highest level since 1988. Figures greater than 50 signal expansion, and economists projected the gauge would slip to 64.5, based on the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.

The gain was led by measures of orders and employment as manufacturers, including Caterpillar, benefited from the pickup in consumer purchases and stronger export markets in emerging economies like China.

"This fortifies the stability of the recovery," said Mr Maxwell Clarke, chief US economist at IDEAglobal in New York. "You definitely see traction from manufacturing going forward."

The Commerce Department's report also showed incomes increased 0.4 per cent for a second month, matching the median forecast in the Bloomberg survey.

Disposable incomes, or the money left over after taxes, rose 0.1 per cent after adjusting for inflation. They climbed 0.2 per cent in the prior month.

Another report yesterday showed the number of jobs advertised on the Internet climbed in January to the highest level in more than three years, indicating the labour market is improving.

Online help-wanted ads climbed by 438,000 from the prior month to 4.27 million, the most since June 2007, according to the Conference Board. Forty-nine states reported gains, led by California, Texas and New York. BLOOMBERG

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.todayonline.com
Publish date:02/02/11

Asia's price pressures

Manufacturing expands but central banks wary of rising inflation

05:55 AM Feb 02, 2011
BEIJING - Manufacturing in Asia continued to expand at a fast clip while inflationary pressures heated up further last month, adding urgency to efforts by the authorities to keep prices from spiralling out of control.

Two January purchasing managers' indexes (PMI) released yesterday for China - the world's largest manufacturing centre - remained well in expansionary territory. China's official PMI, published by the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, fell from 53.9 in December to 52.9 last month. The private sector HSBC PMI for China rose to 54.5 from 54.4.

A PMI reading above 50 indicates an expansion in manufacturing, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. South Korea's HSBC PMI stood at a seasonally-adjusted 53.5, compared to 53.9 in the previous month.

All showed rising prices are a growing problem, adding to concerns that Asia's central banks may have kept interest rates too low for too long as they stoked a strong recovery from the global financial crisis. With Egypt's political turmoil sending Brent crude oil above US$100 a barrel for the first time in more than two years and with copper and tin prices at record highs, inflationary pressures are intensifying as manufacturers pass along the higher costs to consumers.

The input-price sub-index of China's official PMI, a leading indicator of the country's inflation, rose to 69.3 from 66.7. People's Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said the central bank must be vigilant about inflation and may need to order banks to set aside more cash to address rapid capital inflows.

Citigroup's head of emerging Asia economic research, Ms Johanna Chua, forecast that China's inflation rate, which eased to 4.6 per cent in December from 5.1 per cent in November, will average 4.6 per cent this year, with "risk to the upside, given oil and food prices and excess liquidity feeding into inflation expectations".

Citigroup expects the PBOC to raise rates by one percentage point this year, including a quarter-point hike imminently and a further half-point tightening by the end of June. The PBOC has raised rates twice and increased banks' reserve requirements several times since early last year.

Citigroup also expects China to continue letting the yuan rise, forecasting the US dollar will fall to 6.25 yuan by the end of the year. The Chinese currency is up about 3.7 per cent since mid-June, when Beijing ended its two-year peg to the US dollar.

South Korea's consumer prices jumped 4.1 per cent on-year in January, accelerating from 3.5 per cent in December and piercing the Bank of Korea's 2 to 4 per cent target band. Export orders and employment continued to rise, HSBC said, indicating Asia's fourth-biggest economy is on track to "record robust growth" in the first quarter of the year. It also flagged signs of heightened price pressures, noting that input-price inflation rose at the fastest pace in 14 months.

"Input prices and output prices sub-indices are both approaching their respective record highs, intensifying inflationary pressures," said HSBC economist Song Yi Kim.

Many economists expect the Bank of Korea (BOK) to raise rates this month, on the heels of a surprise hike last month.

The BOK raised its base rate by 25 basis points to 2.75 per cent last month, while the government unveiled a package of measures to rein in inflation expectations, including a tariff cut for key import goods and pledge to freeze of public service charges including electricity and gas. Agencies

Source/转贴/Extract/:www.todayonline.com
Publish date:02/02/11

DBSV: CH Offshore Net cash position builds

CH Offshore
Net cash position builds
HOLD S$0.49
Price Target : S$ 0.60.

At a Glance
• 2Q11 results in line; interim DPS of 0.75 Scts declared (2Q10: nil).
• Strong operating cash flow and growing net cash position.
• New deliveries of AHTS to continue to cap upside to utilisation and day rates for next 12 months.
• Maintain HOLD, S$0.60 TP.

Comment on Results
2Q11 results in line. CHO posted 2Q11 revenue of US$16.9m (+4% y-o-y, +17% q-o-q). Excluding vessel disposal gains of US$1.0m, recurring income was within expectations at US$8.3m, down 16% y-o-y on higher operating expenses from an expanded vessel fleet. This, along with lower day rates for some vessels, led to weaker gross margins of 53.5% (-11.6ppt y-o-y, -2.4ppt q-o-q). CHO’s net cash position of US$21.3m continues to grow on strong operating cash flows. An interim DPS of 0.75 Scts has been declared (2Q10: nil).

Recommendation
Charter market outlook for AHTS remains muted. We believe utilisation and day rates for AHTS have generally bottomed. However, despite a pick up in activity levels experienced, the market is still absorbing new deliveries, which will cap upside to utilization and day rates in the near to mid term. We continue to expect recovery in utilisation rates from 2012 onwards, led by the midlarge AHTS category (>7,999bhp), which should provide the impetus for day rates to follow.

Catalysts lacking; maintain HOLD. Our projection for a 10% decline in FY11F earnings to US$33.5m is maintained. No change to our TP of S$0.60, based on 9x recurring FY11 PE. Maintain HOLD on limited catalysts and earnings visibility, despite undemanding valuations.

Source/转贴/Extract/: DBS Vickers Research
Publish date:31/01/11

全球股市蒸發5千億美元

Created 02/01/2011 - 19:00

(美國‧紐約/吉隆坡1日訊)埃及政局動盪週二已邁入第7天,全球市場大亂,而自28日至31日,全球股市市值已有5千億美元遭到蒸發。

投資者擔心埃及動盪情勢會在MENA(中東北非)地區形成骨牌效應,週一全球股市大都下跌,而美股則在經濟與企業報喜下小起,進而帶動亞股週二略為回彈,惟投資情緒依然謹慎。

儘管大市交投淡靜,亞股在技術反彈下普遍虎年翹尾,3天來首度上漲,惟埃及政局擔憂情緒依然困擾市場,抑制了亞股的漲幅。

獲利改善、美國消費者支出攀升,石油和金屬價格推高商品股等因素造好,推使亞洲股市一洗之前數日的熊氣,惟全日僅取得不到1%的漲幅,主要是春節假期來臨,市場觀望氛圍濃厚,加上埃及騷亂情勢惡化打擊上攻士氣。

中國股市春節前最後交易日因投資者擔憂春節長假期間海外市場及國內政策出現不利因素,大多謹慎觀望,全日在盤整態勢中盤旋,表現牛皮。

上海股市窄幅震盪,還好臨危不亂,截至下午3時45分小漲0.30%。港股一度因埃及危機惡化,油價逼百關,跌穿23300點,所幸中國股升幅擴大,激勵港股極力反擊,截至下午3時45分小起0.18%。

除菲律賓外,東南亞其他市場皆小有斬獲。

大馬股市今日因聯邦直轄區日休市一天。

另一分析員認為,雖看好今年股市前景,但如中東局勢嚴重衝擊石油市場,或潛在改變市場前景,亞洲市場硬著陸的可能性增加。

美股小起
歐股多跌

在消費者支出增加激勵下,週一美股揚升,但中東方面問題使得漲勢受壓抑。

美股最終收紅,標普500指數收漲9.78點或0.77%,報1286.12點,道瓊斯工商指數收漲68.23點或0.58%,報11891.93點,以科技股為主的那斯達克指數(NASDAQ)收漲13.19點或0.49%,報2700.08點。

歐股多數收低,擴大兩週來跌勢。

道瓊歐洲600指數下跌0.1%收280.05點。

西歐18個股市中11個下挫,英國股市FTSE-100指數下跌18.43點或0.31%,收5862.94點。德國股市DAX-30指數下跌25.32點或0.36%,收7077.48點。法國股市CAC-40指數上漲3.18點或0.08%,收4005.50點。




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Source/转贴/Extract/:biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:01/02/11

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

How to ride the property wave

THE latest round of residential- property cooling measures by the Government – particularly the steep ramp-up of stamp duty applicable to property sellers to a hefty maximum of 16 per cent of the selling price – may be considered to be the strongest thus far, but property analysts say these steps are still insufficient to bring about a significant drop in property prices.

Sales volume are expected to fall in the short term as investors adopt a more cautious approach, but residential- property prices overall are forecast to climb another 5 to 8 per cent this year.

Already, prices of Housing Board resale flats rose 14.1 per cent and private-property home prices jumped a sharp 17.6 per cent last year, according to data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority released last Friday.

With residential-property prices rising so steeply, investors should consider putting their money into other real-estate segments, such as offices, shops, hospitality, health care, warehouses and factories – areas which have been generating attractive yields as well.



This can be easily done through Real Estate Investment Trusts (Reits), without investors having to raise large sums of money to purchase the physical buildings themselves.

“The recent cooling measures have driven some residential-property investors to other segments but the ‘investable’ universe – particularly strata-titled units – in the non-residential segment is rather small,” said Dr Chua Yang Liang, head of research for South-east Asia at Jones Lang LaSalle.

“The large size and bulkiness of the non-residential sectors and high capital outlay typically hinder direct investment by small-time investors who are, therefore, likely to seek a friendlier real-estate investment channel, that is, through Reits.” Essentially, Reits are collective investment-trust schemes, typically listed on the stock exchange, which allow investors to buy into a portfolio of professionally managed properties. Investors gain dividends from rental incomes as well as capital gains from the profitable sale of real-estate assets.

Many of the 21 Singapore-listed Reits have proved their financial mettle in recent years, and in line with the strong market recovery last year, are often becoming oversubscribed. The FTSE ST Reit index, which measures the overall Reit market in Singapore, has increased by a robust 19.8 per cent since a year ago.

Commercial Reits, led by CapitaCommercial Trust, K-Reit Asia and P-Life, saw the strongest growth last year, rising 26.4 per cent. The service sector has also outperformed the rest of the market over the last year.

The growth momentum is expected to extend into this year, with office and other commercial assets Reits attracting buyers – due to expectations of higher rents of about 10 per cent in prime areas, and further growth in the capital values of office, retail and hotel properties, as Singapore remains highly attractive for business set-ups and expansions.

“Reits allow investors to gain access to assets that they would otherwise not be able to acquire,” said Mr Roger Tan, vice-president of Sias Research. “Even if it is possible to acquire a Reit asset such as a warehouse, it is not easy to manage the asset, in terms of maintenance and rental, as an individual investor.” Although Reits investment are also highly liquid and allow for easy diversification, because many of them own multi-property portfolios with a range of tenant pools, experts urge investors to exercise caution when assessing each Reit investment. Investors should not assume that all Reits are low-risk and meant for long-term investing. Reading the prospectus is thus critical, particularly for information on dividend payments as well as brokerage commission, management and trustees’ fees, and expense ratio.

Dr Chua pointed out that investors should look into the Reits’ underlying asset qualities, rental-income stability, and other demand and supply drivers within the property sector before making the investment decision. “Potential asset acquisitions, yields, and price trend of the individual counters are also some of the key factors that a Reit investor must pay strong attention to,” he said.

Mr Tan said: “When high yields are offered, investors need to question whether the yields reflect the risk of the Reit or there is inefficiency in its pricing, which gives them opportunity to earn higher returns. “Overall, the financial standing of the Reit’s backers must be assessed to ensure the survival of the Reit in challenging times, along with whether management has displayed competence in their strategic plans to maximise returns of the assets.”

With increasingly heavy subscription rates to Singapore Reits (S-Reits) since they first made their debut nearly nine years ago, the market seems poised for strong growth. Said CB Richard Ellis: “The simplicity of S-Reits as an investment instrument, combined with their strong underlying fundamentals and relatively risk-averse nature, will continue to make Reits here an attractive option for investors.”

Source/转贴/Extract/: mypaper
Publish date:31/01/11

Higher rates will kill US recovery

BY PAUL KRUGMAN
THE NEW YORK TIMES

LAST Saturday, reported The Financial Times, some of the world’s most powerful financial executives were going to hold a private meeting with finance ministers in Davos, Switzerland, the site of the World Economic Forum. Among other things, the bankers had a fairly substantive demand: They want higher interest rates, despite the persistence of very high unemployment in the United States and Europe, because they say that low rates are feeding inflation.

And what worries me is the possibility that policymakers might actually take their advice. To understand the issues, you need to know that we’re in the midst of a “two-speed” recovery, in which some countries are speeding ahead, but others – including the US – have yet to get out of first gear.

The US economy fell into recession at the end of 2007; the rest of the world followed a few months later. And advanced nations – the US, Europe and Japan – have barely begun to recover. It’s true that these economies have been growing since the summer of 2009, but the growth has been too slow to produce large numbers of jobs. To raise interest rates under these conditions would be to undermine any chance of doing better.

What about inflation? High unemployment has kept a lid on the measures of inflation that usually guide policy. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, is now running below 0.5 per cent at an annual rate, far below the informal target of 2 per cent. But food and energy prices have been rising lately. Corn and wheat prices rose around 50 per cent last year; copper, cotton and rubber prices have been setting new records.

What’s that about? The answer, mainly, is growth in emerging markets. While recovery in advanced nations has been sluggish, developing countries – China in particular – have come roaring back from the 2008 slump.

This has created inflation pressures within many of these countries; it has also led to sharply rising global demand for raw materials. The question is, what bearing should all of this have on policy at the Fed and the European Central Bank?

First of all, inflation in China is China’s problem, not ours. Neither China nor anyone else has the right to demand that the US strangles its nascent economic recovery just because Chinese exporters want to keep the yuan undervalued.

So why the demand for higher rates? Well, bankers have a long history of getting fixated on commodity prices. Traditionally, that meant insisting that any rise in the price of gold would mean the end of Western civilisation.

These days it means demanding that interest rates be raised because the prices of copper, rubber, cotton and tin have gone up, even though underlying inflation is on the decline. Mr Ben Bernanke clearly understands that raising rates now would be a huge mistake. But Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, his European counterpart, is making hawkish noises – and both the Fed and the European Central Bank are under a lot of external pressure to do the wrong thing. They need to resist this pressure. Yes, commodity prices are up, but that’s no reason to perpetuate mass unemployment.

Source/转贴/Extract/: mypaper
Publish date:01/0211

CIMB : Ang pow series -3.InnoTek Limited

InnoTek Limited
Why not offset weak 4Q10 with continuation of 5cts DPS?

Not rated
Price @ 31/01/11 : S$0.575
52-week range (SGD): 0.34 – 0.625

Next up - Innotek
• Up, up and away – Friday’s ang pow call, Memtech ended 7.1% higher yesterday while Monday’s ang pow call, Jadason, was up 5.6% at closing.

• Innotek is our third ang pow stock. Regular readers will be very familiar with this stock by now. Estimated historical CY10 P/BV is just 0.7x and 46% of the share price is backed by net cash. Innotek paid 5cts DPS in FY08 and FY09 and we expect 5cts DPS for FY10 too. Last year, Innotek announced results on 25th February and paid its 5cts DPS on 26th May 2010.

• Share price downside limited. Although 4Q10 will be weaker than 3Q10, we expect share buy back and expected 5cts DPS to limit downside. We also highlight a write down for its investment in Sabana REIT. Positive would be announcement of M&A.

• Price points to watch out for. Innotek’s first share buy back for 2010 was on 26th February at S$0.41. The highest price the Company bought back its shares was S$0.60 and the last buy back was on 16th December 2010 at S$0.55.

• 12% to 43% upside if the share price re-rates to its historical average P/BV of 0.79x (implying S$0.645) and 1.0x P/BV on CY10 BVPS of S$0.82

Technical BUY
• The stock’s breakout run from its triangle pattern does not appear complete. Prices are still above its key support trend line as well as its moving averages.

• Its indicators at the moment suggest that it is in a short term consolidation. Its RSI is holding above the 40-50pts mark, suggesting that the bulls may be holding out and waiting for a chance to get in.

• The stock remains a technical buy with a stop placed below the support trend line at S$0.555. Anything below would mean that prices could head towards S$0.50 next.

Source/转贴/Extract/: CIMB Research
Publish date:28/01/11

CIMB : Ang pow series -2.Jadason Enterprises

Jadason Enterprises Ltd
The second treasure
BUY; TP: S$0.125
Price @ 28/01/11 : S$0.090
52-week range (SGD): 0.075 – 0.115

Want more ang pow money?
• Second treasure. Maintain BUY with unchanged Target Price of S$0.125 Our first ang pow series Memtech International saw an increase of 7% share price to 15S cts on good volume last Friday. With this success, we would like to introduce our second underperforming darling, Jadason Ltd.

• Attractive valuation. Our FY10 estimates are: 1) P/E of 5.6x on EPS growth of 222.5% 2) P/BV of 0.6x 3) Dividend of at least 0.3 S cts coupled with the interim dividend of 0.2 S cts, which will translate to a 5.6% dividend yield.

DPS Dividend Yield
FY06 0.008 8.89%
FY07 0.005 5.56%
FY08 0.000 0.00%
FY09 0.003 3.33%
FY10E 0.005 5.56%

• Growing from strength to strength. We anticipate healthy 4Q earnings, with a growth of 31.4% yoy to 2.8mil. The company started to see healthy yoy earnings growth since 2Q09 and we expect it to continue for 4Q10.

• To turn net cash. We expect to see Jadason turn net cash by end FY10, which prompt us to believe that there could be positive surprises in the final dividend payout.

• Growing momentum. Our previous conversation with the management suggests that the company is still operating at high utilization for both the drilling services and mass laminate operations. It plans to expand capacity gradually this year to fulfill the growing demand.


Source/转贴/Extract/: CIMB Research
Publish date:28/01/11

CIMB : Ang pow series -1.Memtech International

Memtech International Ltd
Ang pow anyone?
MTEC SP Price @ 27/01/11 : S$0.14
52-week range (SGD): 0.095 – 0.15

Want some ang pow money?
* I want ang pow. With the rabbit year round the corner, we are kicking off an Ang pow series where we spotlight undervalued tech stocks with dividend yield of more than 5%.

• … but no risk please. First up is Memtech. Valuation on our CY10 estimates are: 1) P/E of 10.0x; but 2) Ex cash P/E is just 5.0x; 3) P/BV is 0.7x, and 4) dividend yield payable after FY10 results could be 5.4% or higher. Re-rating to historical average P/BV of 0.84x could see 16.5 S cts or 18% upside. Re-rating to 1x P/BV would mean 20.0 S cts or 43% upside.

• Don’t worry, things must get better. Earnings recovery momentum gathering pace with 2Q10 up 20% qoq and 3Q10 up 150% qoq. On outlook, 4Q10 sales are expected to remain strong and mid 2011 will see touch screen panel contributions. Memtech is also benefiting from Amazon’s Kindle sales as they supply components for the Kindle. Amazon just reported a record quarter with earnings topping Wall Street’s estimates and more importantly, Amazon said that Kindle books sales have outstripped paperback sales.

• Technical Buy. First target is S$0.16 then S$0.19. Triangle breakout appears firm. Prices above rising 30-day and 50-day SMA. As long as gap at S$0.12-0.125 is not filled, expect prices to continue on further.

• Potential dividend yield range.
DPS (S cts) Dividend yield
0.50 3.57%
0.75 5.36%
1.00 7.14%
1.30 9.29%


Source/转贴/Extract/: CIMB Research
Publish date:28/01/11

经济好转 贸易增长 航空业评级获调升

2011/02/01 10:55:28 AM
●南洋商报
(吉隆坡31日讯)尽管原油价格依然紧紧牵制着航空公司表现,不过,经济好转及国际贸易增长情况下,分析员将我国航空业评级从“中和”调高至“增持”。

达证券重申“买入”马航(MAS,3786,主板贸服股)的建议,并把目标价格设定在2.80令吉。

分析员相信,马航目前已走在复苏的路上,尤其是在经济好转的情况下。

国际贸易的增长,可为马航在空运方面获益。

亚航目标价RM3.40

此外,该公司的转型计划着重在成本控制、逐渐提高的航空需求量以及每名搭客回酬增长,也有助推高该公司的盈利表现。

另外,分析员将亚航(AirAsia,5099,主板贸服股)目标价格定在3.40令吉,也是给予“买入”的建议,目前的市价离目标价格还有15%的涨升空间。

亚航的股价过去12个月就已涨升了超过一倍,远远超越富时隆综合指数表现。

由于早前的预测过于保守,分析员在考量满载率以及辅助性收入后,分别调高了亚航的2010财年和2012财年盈利预测。

亚航2010财年和2012财年的净利预测,估计是6亿9740万令吉、8亿6200万令吉以及8亿5400万令吉。

不进一步护盘

国际原油价格的变动确实是航空业者的一大挑战,然而经过2008年大起大落的事件后,不少航空公司因为燃油护盘而蒙受巨大的亏损。

原油价格一度飙高至每桶145美元,不过却在年杪滑落至每桶30美元。

马航的管理层就表明,暂且没有进一步为燃油护盘的计划,因为该公司相信燃油价格或会走软。

无论如何,该公司有一套护盘竞争政策,以根据竞争对手的护盘策略而行动。

亚航也表示,该公司目前只为第一季的15%燃油护盘,护盘价格少于每桶95美元;同时也没有打算进一步护盘,因为他们相信油价不会超越100美元。

事实上,根据达证券分析员的预测,原油在今年平均价为85美元至95美元。
南洋商报

Source/转贴/Extract/:南洋商报
Publish date:01/02/11

CIMB: STI triangle consolidation?



STI triangle consolidation? The STI was flat last week, holding above its support
trendline at 3,190pts. If this support trendline holds, it means that the index is still in a triangle consolidation that started in mid-Nov. Once completed, the STI should see a sharp and short rally sometime in Feb. This wavecount is similar to MAxJ’s alternative wavecount. However, a break below 3,125pts would negate this wavecount and make us turn negative on STI. The alternative wavecount sees STI already completing wave v in Nov.

Source/转贴/Extract/: CIMB Research
Publish date:31/01/11

CIMB: 50-day SMA support for KCLI is under threat



50-day SMA support for KCLI is under threat. It was not a good week for KLCI. The
index went below the support trendline at 1,525pts and also the 50-day SMA at 1,522.
If we do not see a rebound above the 1,530-1,535 levels over the next two weeks, it
could indicate that a longer consolidation is kicking in for the Index. What was
previously the support trendline is now the resistance trendline, at 1,532pts.

Source/转贴/Extract/:CIMB Research
Publish date:31/01/11

CIMB: Signs of cracking in US



Signs of cracking in US. It was a huge down day for the US equity market on Friday.
After hitting 1,302pts on Friday morning, the S&P500 reversing sharply to close at
1,276pts. Pattern-wise, the index has broken below its bearish rising wedge formation.

The immediate support trendline at 1,285pts has given way and the next support is
1,260pts. If this gives way, brace for at least a few weeks of correction.

Source/转贴/Extract/: CIMB Research
Publish date:31/01/11

Monday, January 31, 2011

Phillip: FCOT Painful but necessary decision

Frasers Commercial Trust – 1QFY11 Results
HOLD (Maintained)
Closing Price S$0.17
Target Price S$0.18

• 1Q11 revenue of $29.0 million, NPI of $22.9 million, distributable income of $7.9 million
• 1Q11 DPU of 0.25 cents
• Divestment of Cosmo Plaza a positive
• Maintain Hold, target price $0.18



1Q11 results came in without much fanfare. Revenue was $29.0 million (-1.1% q-q, -2.3% yy), net property income was $22.9 million (-1.2% q-q, -2.4% y-y) and distributable income of $7.9 million (-16.9% q-q, +6.7% y-y). DPU for the quarter was 0.25 cents (+4.2% y-y). Cosmo Plaza continued to be the drag in the quarter, contributing an operating loss to net property income. Distributable income and DPU improved y-y due to an absence of realized loss on derivative instruments a year ago. Operationally, the rest of the portfolio performed in-line with expectations. Portfolio occupancy showed slight improvement from the last quarter from 90.8% to 91.8%, but dropped 1.1% from the same period a year ago. Singapore portfolio experienced improvement in occupancy rate, however negative reversion was seen at 55 Market street, this corroborates with our view that the office sector might still be experiencing negative reversion from renewal of leases signed in pre crisis days. At the other Singapore property, Keypoint, management effort in asset enhancement and repositioning is seeing results. Occupancy rate has risen almost 10ppt from a year ago. The Australia and Japan portfolio delivered stable results, excluding Cosmo Plaza.



Painful but necessary decision
Subsequent to the 1QFY2011 quarter, FCOT finally sold Cosmo Plaza in Jan 2011. This is an almost cashless transaction whereby the sale consideration is simply JPY4 (S$0.06). In return, FCOT lightens its balance sheet with the transfer of JPY3.8 billion in loans to the buyer. In retrospect, the building was acquired in 2007 for JPY6.5 billion. Current valuation is JPY3.1 billion. Over the years, Cosmo Plaza contributed $7.7 million in net property income. We may be off in our numbers, but Cosmo Plaza represents substantial value destruction. We think the building is a bad piece of legacy which the present management inherited from its predecessor. With the divestment, gearing is lowered to 38% with total debt of $775.2 million. One down, one to go With Cosmo gone, there is just one white elephant left on the balance sheet. FCOT has not

received dividends from AWPF since 3Q08. Latest valuation is AUD24.9 million (S$32.5 million). In the event of a successful recycling of this capital to reduce debt, gearing could be lowered further to 37%. Again we feel that management has delivered on its strategy. We are slowly witnessing results of the transformation. Core portfolio is delivering stable performance. FCOT has secured higher committed occupancy commencing in the coming quarters which should helped to bolster the forthcoming results. FCOT currently trades at 0.6x book value. We are maintaining our Hold recommendation and target price of $0.18.

Source/转贴/Extract/: Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
Publish date:31/01/11

Phillip: FCOT Painful but necessary decision

Frasers Commercial Trust – 1QFY11 Results
HOLD (Maintained)
Closing Price S$0.17
Target Price S$0.18

• 1Q11 revenue of $29.0 million, NPI of $22.9 million, distributable income of $7.9 million
• 1Q11 DPU of 0.25 cents
• Divestment of Cosmo Plaza a positive
• Maintain Hold, target price $0.18



1Q11 results came in without much fanfare. Revenue was $29.0 million (-1.1% q-q, -2.3% yy), net property income was $22.9 million (-1.2% q-q, -2.4% y-y) and distributable income of $7.9 million (-16.9% q-q, +6.7% y-y). DPU for the quarter was 0.25 cents (+4.2% y-y). Cosmo Plaza continued to be the drag in the quarter, contributing an operating loss to net property income. Distributable income and DPU improved y-y due to an absence of realized loss on derivative instruments a year ago. Operationally, the rest of the portfolio performed in-line with expectations. Portfolio occupancy showed slight improvement from the last quarter from 90.8% to 91.8%, but dropped 1.1% from the same period a year ago. Singapore portfolio experienced improvement in occupancy rate, however negative reversion was seen at 55 Market street, this corroborates with our view that the office sector might still be experiencing negative reversion from renewal of leases signed in pre crisis days. At the other Singapore property, Keypoint, management effort in asset enhancement and repositioning is seeing results. Occupancy rate has risen almost 10ppt from a year ago. The Australia and Japan portfolio delivered stable results, excluding Cosmo Plaza.



Painful but necessary decision
Subsequent to the 1QFY2011 quarter, FCOT finally sold Cosmo Plaza in Jan 2011. This is an almost cashless transaction whereby the sale consideration is simply JPY4 (S$0.06). In return, FCOT lightens its balance sheet with the transfer of JPY3.8 billion in loans to the buyer. In retrospect, the building was acquired in 2007 for JPY6.5 billion. Current valuation is JPY3.1 billion. Over the years, Cosmo Plaza contributed $7.7 million in net property income. We may be off in our numbers, but Cosmo Plaza represents substantial value destruction. We think the building is a bad piece of legacy which the present management inherited from its predecessor. With the divestment, gearing is lowered to 38% with total debt of $775.2 million. One down, one to go With Cosmo gone, there is just one white elephant left on the balance sheet. FCOT has not

received dividends from AWPF since 3Q08. Latest valuation is AUD24.9 million (S$32.5 million). In the event of a successful recycling of this capital to reduce debt, gearing could be lowered further to 37%. Again we feel that management has delivered on its strategy. We are slowly witnessing results of the transformation. Core portfolio is delivering stable performance. FCOT has secured higher committed occupancy commencing in the coming quarters which should helped to bolster the forthcoming results. FCOT currently trades at 0.6x book value. We are maintaining our Hold recommendation and target price of $0.18.

Source/转贴/Extract/: Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
Publish date:31/01/11

DBSV: FCOT Turning round the corner

Frasers Commercial Trust
BUY S$0.17
(Upgrade from HOLD)

Turning round the corner
• Upgrade to Buy and TP to $0.21, with 30% total return
• Results in line, riding on office uptrend in Spore and Australia
• Valuation undemanding at 0.63x P/BV, FY11 yield of 7.2%

On turnaround path. The recent series of capital management exercises has placed FCOT on firm footing. Divestment of Cosmo Plaza has helped lightened balance sheet to 38% gearing. The group is also expected to step up from its “penny stock” perception with the proposed 1-for-5 units consolidation. Going forward, expiry of master leases at CSC in Mar 2012 and ATP in 2014 should enhance organic growth visibility as underlying rents for these properties are currently above or close to base levels. Amid the brighter outlook for office sector, we believe that FCOT should be able to enjoy the full positive impact of reversions. Our revised TP of $0.21translates to a 30% total return. Current valuations are undemanding at 0.63x P/BV and FY11 yield of 7.2%.

1Q11 results underscores improved operating performance. 1Q11 gross revenue and NPI declined by <2.0% yoy and qoq to S$29m and S$22.9m respectively. Distributable income net of CPPU dividend amounted to $7.9m (DPU: 0.25cts) up 4% qoq, thanks to lower financing expenses. Higher occupancies at Keypoint and 55 Market Street helped to offset negative NPI contribution from recently divested Cosmo Plaza and negative rental reversions. Portfolio occupancy is now at an average of 91.8%. In addition, proactive leasing strategies should benefit the 8.2% NLA expiring this year.

Room for uplift from capital management moves. Given current low interest rate environment, management is looking at possibly refinance its debt early. Given FCOT’s relatively high interest cost of 4.3% and lumpy expiry profile, there could be significant potential interest savings. In terms of sensitivity, forevery 25bps savings, DPU could be raised by 4%.

Lowest P/BV multiple of 0.63x. We raised our FY11/12 DPU to 1.2cts/1.3cts translating to a yield of 7.2-7.6%, one of the highest in the commercial Sreits space.

Results Comments
Revenue inline with expectations 1Q11 gross revenue and NPI declined by <2.0% yoy and qoq to S$29.0m and S$22.9m respectively. Higher occupancies in Keypoint and 55 Market Street helped to offset the negative NPI contribution from recently divested Cosmo Plaza, and negative rental reversions for its Singapore properties. Distributable income net of CPPU dividend amounted to $7.9m (DPU: 0.25Scts), up 4% yoy due to the absence of loss from realization of forward contract incurred in the prior year.

Portfolio occupancy improved. On the back strong economic growth, office demand remained relatively robust. Occupancy at Keypoint improved from 81.1% last quarter to 87.0%. In a similar note, occupancy for 55 Market Street improved from 83.1% to 95.8%. All-in, overall portfolio occupancy rate improved by 100 basis points to 91.8%.

Excluding Cosmo Plaza, occupancy rate stood at an even higher 96.3%. WALE by gross rental income is about 4.0 years supported by its two master leases at China Square Central and Alexandra Techno Park.

Improving rentals, mitigate negative rental reversion risk. Higher occupancies have helped lift asking rents. Consequently, the group managed to move its Spore properties offices rentals up on a qoq basis, lowering risk of negative rental reversions. Monthly office rentals at Keypoint are between $4.50-4.80psf pm, 4.4% higher compared to a quarter ago. Similarly, 55 Market Street office leases are recently contracted at $6.00–6.50 psf pm, an improvement from the $5.60psf pm a quarter ago.

Turning point for FCOT
A stronger FCOT post Cosmo Sale. Sale of Cosmo Plaza is a turning point in our view as the property has been a drag on earnings and resources over the past year. Cosmo Plaza has an occupancy rate of 39.3%, with a majority of its lease expiring in FY11 and was operating at a loss of S$0.2m at net property income level.

The sale consideration for Cosmo Plaza was JPY 4 (
As such, sale of Cosmo plaza will help FCOT to strengthen its financial metrics – gearing is expected to head down by 1.8% to 38%, interest coverage ratio improved from 2.5x to 2.59x, while net property income will benefit from deconsolidation of Cosmo numbers.

Earnings stability with growth drivers in medium term
Strong income quality. Strong blue chip tenants/ master leases contribute to over 61% of its portfolio, implying strong credit profiles. These leases are spread over 2-25 years, thus ensuring earnings stability and visibility for the portfolio in the longer term.

The lease expiry profile is evenly spread, which allows for regular stepped up rental growth. FCOT has low concentration risk as the weighted average lease expiry of 4.0 years (as of Dec’10) is evenly spread over the next 3 financial years.

Earnings downside is limited with annual fixed rental stepups to augment earnings growth. FCOT offers strong earnings visibility in FY11 with over 91.8% (8.2% of rental income to be renewed) of its rental income locked in for the next 3 quarters. The bulk of renewal activities in FY11 will be concentrated at Keypoint asset (c5.0% or 60% of the income up for renewal). Reversions at Keypoint are expected to be stable or slightly negative with average passing rents at S$5.60psf vs their current asking rates of between S$4.00-S$4.80psf.

For the remaining space in its other properties (c3% of revenues), we expect renewal activities to be relatively stable.

Any earnings downside due to renewals should be more than offset by positive renewals in Central Park Australia and fixed rent reviews and built-in step-ups (approximately to be c4%) would contribute to over 25% of its topline in FY11. Looking forward into FY12-14, it is estimated that c18-20% of its income will have fixed step-up provisions of c3.0%, which augment steady earnings growth in the medium.

Improving Keypoint performance from expected sustained occupancies increase. FCOT got it right with Keypoint. FCOT managed to turn the asset around since it took over the management in 2Q09. It has successfully increased the foot traffic by attracting new retail tenants and F&B options. Leveraging on its sponsor, F&N’s network, FCOT is able to attract new F&B tenants like Banquet, Subway, Aston, a Korean mini-mart and convenience shop 7-Eleven. In addition, opening of nearby Nicole Highway MRT station has also improved the accessibility and traffic flow into the area, thus make Keypoint more attractive to tenants. Occupancy at Keypoint improved gradually from a low 66.2% in 2Q09 to a high of 85% as of 1Q11. NPI for the asset has also increased sequentially over the past 3 quarters. Amid the better office and retail markets in Singapore, renewal activities at Keypoint office and retail space ranges S$4.0-4.8 and S$7.8 – S$14.0 respectively, up by between 12-15% from previous quarters.

Looking ahead, we expect occupancies for office and retail spaces at Keypoint to reach 90% and 95% by FY11 and FY12 respectively, supporting earnings growth as the manager continues to optimize yields at Keypoint.

Potential earnings uplift from taking back management of China Square Central (“CSC”). FCOT currently receives an annual net income of S$16.95m under a master lease structure arrangement with Unicorn Square Limited. This master lease arrangement is expiring in Mar 2012.

Upon expiry, FCOT may take the opportunity to enhance the property and even take back the management of the property, which will definitely be earnings accretive in the medium term. In recent quarters, CSC has seen office occupancy rise to c93.7% from 93.1% in Sep. However, the current retail offering continues to remain weak – occupancy remains low at 86.5%.

Asking rentals for the property is understood to be at S$6.30psf as of latest quarter, which we note is higher than the average passing rent of the property.

Previous asset enhancement plans (“AEI”) to increase the retail footprint at CSC seems to be slow, in our view, as capex is to be shared by both the lessee and FCOT. As such, upon expiry of the master lease, we expect FCOT to have a free hand to embark on its planned AEI works to revive the asset.

In our appended analysis, assuming that FCOT takes back the management of CSC, the base case scenario at current passing rates (in table above) and occupancy levels will enable the trust will reap S$0.8m gain (+2% of FY12 distributable income).

However, if occupancy reverts back to 100%, and rents are signed at current asking of cS$6.30psf, we estimate a net earnings of S$3.4m (+10% of FY12 distributable income).

Capital management exercises
The group had recently instituted a series of capital management exercises, which we believe will be extremely beneficial to the stock.

It has proposed a 1-for-5 unit consolidation exercise, which should pull the stock out of its “penny stock” perception when completed in Feb 2011.

In addition, as with other Sreits, there is room for interest savings in the current low interest rate environment. FCOT has gross borrowings of S$775m at an all-in interest cost of c4.3% pa and 80% hedged. The rate appears relatively high vis-à-vis other Sreits. The debt maturity profile is also lumpy with 100% of loans due from August to Dec 2012. Refinancing of debts will boost distributable income. We estimate that every 25bps dip in average interestcost will increase DPU by about 4% per year.

Valuation and recommendation
FCOT is currently trading at 0.63x P/BV, one of the lowest in the Sreit space. This compares with the 0.9- 1.0x P/BV range for office Sreits sector and 1.1x for the overall Sreit space.

As at Sep 2010, FCOT’s book NAV adjusted for CPPU is S$0.26/unit, supported by a reasonable underlying capital value of $1660psf for 55 Market Street, $1480psf for China Square Central and Keypoint at $913psf.

However, at 0.63x P/BV NAV, FCOT’s implied property yield is significantly higher than the current book cap rates of 4-5.5% for Singapore and Japan assets and 6-8% for Australian properties.

We are upgrading our call to Buy. We believe FCOT is at its turning point with better growth visibility and on track to execute its multi-pronged strategies including organic growth and proactive capital management activities. We believe acquisitions could be another growth driver but not factored into our current numbers. With a gearing of 38%, it has debt headroom of S$280m at target gearing limit of 45%.

Our risk adjusted DCF-derived target price of S$0.21 is fully adjusted for the CPPUs and translates to a potential upside of 30% in total return. We are projecting FY11 and FY12 DPU of 1.2cts and 1.3cts, which gives DPU yield of 7.2-7.6% or 460-500bps spread over the 10-year bond yield.


Source/转贴/Extract/: DBS Vickers Research
Publish date:28/01/11

商品价高涨 通胀压力增

2011/01/31 4:23:18 PM
●南洋商报


虽然目前的形势没有前些时候的食品和燃料危机期间那么严重,

但认真监测和保持警惕是必要的,因为不能排除出现更严重的问题的可能性。

大宗商品价格波动,尤其是食品价格波动,有可能对发展中国家的增长构成第三大风险。

更多令人失望的农作物消息或者能源价格不断攀升都会造成发展中国家实际食品价格大幅上涨,并可能促使低收入国家的贫困家庭经济更加艰巨。

世界银行预测局全球宏观经济主管安德鲁伯恩斯警告,过去几个月主要农产品价格呈两位数上涨,对于那些已承受着贫困与营养不良重负的国家居民造成压力。

而且,如果全球食品价格随着其他主要大宗商品价格进一步上涨,就难以排除2008年的情景重演。

不过,报告认为,虽然近期国际食品价格上涨,但实际涨幅远没有名义上那么大。

目前的实际价格在一定程度上仍低于2008年的高峰价位。

因此,虽然目前的形势没有前些时候的食品和燃料危机期间那么严重,但认真监测和保持警惕是必要的,因为不能排除出现更严重的问题的可能性。

影响好坏参半

报告认为,目前食品价格较高所产生的影响好坏参半。

在许多经济体,美元贬值、本地情况出现好转以及货物与服务价格上涨,这些都意味着食品的实际价格涨幅并没有食品类大宗商品的国际交易美元价格涨幅那么大。

商品市场也影响着高收入国家和发展中国家的宏观经济政策差距,这是因为汇率变动和低利率水平所致。

几乎每一个商品价格以美元价值都在2010年下半年起获得增长,这显示出共同因素的效应,以及部分原因是因为美元的贬值所致。

事实上,美元对大多数货币的贬值,以及其他商品和服务价格上涨的累积效应下,这意味着在过去几年的发展中国家的当地货币国际贸易商品价格增长,都低于用美元报价的价格。

市场预计原产品价格(尤其是金属和矿物)的上涨将会高于其他商品和服务,这因为发展中国家的强势经济增长,增加对全球商品需求和经济增长的比重。

在这样一个环境背景下,世界商品市场或会进入一个超级周期,商品价格将继续上涨,旨在增加供应以满足市场需求。

全球聚焦结构性挑战

世界银行指出,除了面对着这些短期性的风险之外,全球经济进入2012年以后,将聚焦面对着结构性的挑战。

从更长远而言,各国需要从短期风险管理转向专注于推行能够解决根本结构性挑战的措施。

这包括:落实可信赖的计划重建财政可持续性;从刺激需求的广泛措施转向方便失业者重新受雇的财政措施;完成金融业体制改革的工作;推行允许汇率逐步调整至符合基础因素的政策;减少主要储备货币的汇率波动性,以维护市场信心。

目前,各国政策仍继续专注在眼前的(主要以需求为导向)全球金融危机的影响为重点。

接下来,剩下的挑战是结构性的问题,而不是周期性的问题,这也意味着将减少需求管理角色。

如果巩固的中期增长率重新建立起来,政策需要将注意力开始转移到这些结构性问题,将会变得更困难。

巩固财务

世界银行指出,应对财政危机反周期性政策反应非常重要,以避免更严重的衰退和担忧出现。

然而,在没有重视债务可持续性课题下,许多国家目前政策立场将无法维持。

此外,巩固财务的措施在短期内,可能对经济增长造成负面影响,不过对未来经济增长,则带来非常正面的贡献。

大马如今也是着手进行着结构性的经济改革,通过新经济模式(NEM)和经济转型计划(ETP)等长期发展,走向更开放和高增长的经济结构,修正目前国内经济结构问题的不理想,去芜存菁。

大马如今的改革方向,也正好配合全球经济有必要进行的结构型转变,以创造可持续性的财政和经济发展。



【长远风险应对措施】

●落实可信赖的计划重建财政可持续性

●从刺激需求的广泛措施转向方便失业者重新受

●雇的财政措施

●完成金融业体制改革的工作

●推行允许汇率逐步调整至符合基础因素的政策

●减少主要储备货币的汇率波动性


Source/转贴/Extract/: 南洋商报
Publish date:31/01/11

中东乱局恐酿欧债式冲击 油价短期恐探120美元

2011/01/31 6:22:07 PM
●南洋商报

(开罗31日讯)埃及反政府示威浪潮扰乱环球金融市场,令投资者日益担心中东地区政治问题,会继去年欧洲债务危机之后,成为新一轮金融震荡的导火线。

示威浪潮冲击阿拉伯的世袭政体,市场还忧虑政治动荡蔓延至沙地等专制国家。去年4月,希腊成了欧洲债务危机首个骨牌,掀起夏季大跌市的序幕。

分析员认为,当前影响短期股市走势的一大因素,是中东政府到底是否能有效控制住局势,还是像欧债般持续出现骨牌效应。

此外,埃及局势或许对该地区及全球经济正产生不利影响。短期来看,对全球经济最大的担忧仍是油价。

埃及的经济规模相对较小,属于中东第四大经济体。根据国际货币基金(IMF)的估测,埃及去年的国内生产总值只有不到2170亿美元(6640亿令吉)。

虽然埃及本身并不是一个能源生产大国,但由于拥有全球最重要的贸易和能源通道之一苏伊士运河(Suez Canal),每天有大量的石油和石油产品从中东借道埃及输往欧美市场,让该国在世界经济中发挥着举足轻重的作用。

拥苏伊士运河

埃及还是世界上最大的小麦进口国和重要的棉花出口国,有着该地区全球化程度最高的金融市场,其股票颇受新兴市场投资者青睐。

面对埃及动乱可能危及苏伊士运河的原油出口作业,国际能源总署警告石油输出国家组织(OPEC),必须随时准备扩大产油,以维持油市的稳定。然而专家指出,在中东情势紧张下,油价本周即会站上每桶100美元(306令吉),短期内甚至可能达到120美元。

阿联酋阿布扎比石油学院从事石油市场行为研究的副教授加里斯说,如果借道埃及的石油运输发生中断,那么欧洲的供给和全球油价将受到巨大影响。

国际能源总署总干事田中伸男日前在达沃斯的世界经济论坛上指出,有鉴于埃及情势以及对阿拉伯世界带来的影响,油盟应该扩大产油弹性。

必要未雨绸缪

他指出,尽管目前苏伊士运河仍维持畅通,原油供给面也无重大变化,但是在全球需求扩增下,原油供应稍有阻碍,就可能在油市造成混乱。因此,油盟有必要未雨绸缪。

除担心埃及能源运输中转站的职能中断外,市场还担心埃及的骚乱可能会蔓延至更大的石油生产国,这使得投资者的担忧情绪可能会进一步加重。

受埃及情势影响,近来国际油价又告上扬,布兰特原油再逼近每桶100美元大关。油盟官员则是表示,他们会密切注意油市的变化,并且在必要时做出因应。

沙地阿拉伯油长纳米即表示,油盟目前有足够的剩余产能,足以应付任何原油供应中断的情况。不过伊朗石油官员表示,目前油盟并无召开紧急会议的必要。

Source/转贴/Extract/: 南洋商报
Publish date:31/01/11

DMG: Singapore Airlines: Margins scale higher

Singapore Airlines: Margins scale higher
(BUY, S$15.04, TP S$18.50)

SIA’s 9MFY11 core net profit of SGD1.017bn was within our forecast, representing 77% of our full-year earnings. In the Oct – Dec quarter, the airline’s strongest quarter of the year, revenue rose 5.8% q-o-q as passenger yields crept up. The higher yield, together with the economies of scale achieved on encouraging load factors and increased fuel surcharge, boosted SIA’s EBITDA margin to 25.5%, its highest since 3QFY04. With the numbers being in line, we maintain our earnings at this juncture pending SIA’s upcoming analyst briefing today. Hence, our BUY recommendation with a TP of SGD18.50 is retained.

Within forecast. Save for the SGD188m exceptional item relating to the fines paid by its cargo divisions, SIA’s 9MFY11 core net profit of SGD1.017bn was within our forecast; representing 77% of our full year earnings (but missed consensus by 3%-4%) considering the weaker traffic in the upcoming quarter. The 9MFY11 core net profit of SGD921m reversed last year’s 9M core net loss of SGD89.2m, with YTD revenue growing by 16.7% y-o-y, driven by higher passenger (16.7% y-o-y) and cargo yields (20.5% y-o-y), on the back of RPK (revenue passenger KM) and RTK (revenue tonne KM) growth of 3.3% and 8.5% y-o-y respectively.

Passenger yield momentum to continue. Being the strongest quarter of the year, revenue in Q4CY10 rose 5.8% q-o-q, with both passenger and cargo revenue growing by 5.5% and 2.8% q-o-q respectively as passenger yield continued to scale higher by 2.5% q-o-q following the increase in fuel surcharge in Dec - for the first time since 2008.

SIA further raised its fuel surcharge earlier this month as jet fuel price exceeded USD110 per barrel. Despite the encouraging yield from the passenger side, the slower economic growth in 2H amid the European sovereign debt crisis led to shrinking cargo yield during the quarter, albeit at a much slower pace (-0.8% q-o-q, +2.0 y-o-y) although higher restocking activities somewhat boosted volume q-o-q and y-o-y. Nevertheless, SIA’s Q4CY10 traffic volume remained encouraging, with RPK and RTK rising by 2.8% and 3.7% q-o-q and 0.3% and 5.1% y-o-y respectively.

Margins get a boost. The higher yields, the economies of scale achieved on encouraging load factors and the fuel surcharge increase have overall bolstered SIA’s EBITDA margin to 25.5% in Q3 (Q2FY10: 21.6%), the highest since 3QFY04’s 28.6%. The costs efficiency achieved reflect the cost cutting across the broad, with only a mild increase in fuel expenses (q-o-q: 1.9%, y-o-y: 8.1%) owing to the higher fuel surcharge.

Maintain BUY. With the results being in line and pending the analyst briefing today, we maintain our earnings and BUY call at a TP of SGD18.50 at 13x PE FY12 EPS.

Source/转贴/Extract/: DMG & Partners Research
Publish date:31/01/11

DBSV: Maintain STI near-term view despite uncertainties

The STI rebounded to test the 3230 level last week, the resistance level that we said was crucial to overcome before confidence returns.

This resistance level remains stubborn in the near-term. Expect investors to shy off stocks this week on news of the worsening unrest in Egypt over the weekend, equity markets’ negative reaction to that unrest and this being a holiday-shortened week. The price of oil has rebounded to USD90.87pbl from USD85.6pbl as traders play the possibility of supply constraint given Egypt’s proximity to the Suez Canal. Despite near-term uncertainties, we maintain our view that the current market consolidation should end at 3165, worst case at 3090. Equities remain one of the more attractive investment asset classes compared to the rest (e.g. bonds, currencies, physical properties, even commodities - refer to the next section). In addition, the STI is not that far away from levels seen as attractive and where firm support lies: -0.5SD FY11F is at 3000 and the 200-day EMA for the STI is currently @ 3055.

Equities still the preferred investment choice despite inflation
Singapore’s December CPI hit a 2-year high of 4.6% driven by higher food, fuel and COE prices. Our economist expects the inflation to stay above 4% in the next few months (may even touch 5%) due to rising food and oil prices as well as demand pressure from India and China, especially during the current Lunar New Year period. Going forward, oil prices and wage inflation will start to feature more prominently in the CPI index. Our forecast for full year inflation remains at 3.2% (higher than the official forecast range of 2-3%) with room for upside adjustment. The latest December CPI figure has fanned expectations of further monetary tightening ahead by the MAS. The USD weakened to as low as $1.2787 against the SGD last week on speculation that MAS will let the SGD appreciate further to curb inflation. We foresee the SGD to strengthen further to 1.22 against the USD by 4Q11. The presence of inflation and growth (DBS Research: Singapore 2011 GDP growth forecast 7% y-o-y) supports our view that the economy is currently in an inflationary boom phase.

In India, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) lifted the WPI inflation forecast for Mar 2011 sharply from 5.5% to 7%, which is higher than DBS forecast for inflation of 6.5% (YoY). The RBI noted several upside risks to inflation with rising demand side pressures. RBI also expressed serious concerns about risks to stability ahead if commodity prices continue to rise fast. As a result, the RBI raised the overnight repo and reverse repo rates by 25bps each to 6.50% and 5.50% respectively, in line with our economist’s expectations.

Meanwhile, our HK/China economist believes that the days of 2% inflation in China is likely gone for good even if headline inflation subsequently starts to ease in 2H11. This in turn calls for higher interest rates and a stronger exchange rate ahead. We expect the Chinese central bank to hike the 1-year deposit and lending rates by 100bps by end 2011.

So much focus on inflation lately but the question we ask is – What is the impact on equities? We see more inflows into equities as a result.

Picture the person who has money sitting in the bank. The real interest rate is negative and becomes more so going forward due to inflation. He/she needs to do something about it. There are various asset classes to consider investing in – Bonds, stocks, currencies, commodities and physical properties. Bonds do not fare well in a rising interest rate environment. Traditionally, physical properties are a good avenue but the investment environment is unfriendly for residential properties this time round - the latest government tough measures on residential properties are expected to snuff out speculative activities and if these are still ineffective, more measures are expected. For currencies, MAS is expected to let the SGD strengthen further this year to combat inflation. Thus, the investor would be ‘doing the right thing’ by simply holding SGD currency or in the case of investors in Singapore, by ‘doing nothing’.

This leaves the remaining 2 asset classes – commodities or equities.

The rise in the CRB Index in recent months is substantial – about 27% higher since 2H10 driven by food prices and gold. The Rogers Agriculture Index has surged some 64% from 2H10. The price of gold continues to trade near multi-decade high at USD1312 an ounce, which is some 14% higher compared to July last year and 56% higher compared to the previous bull markets peak in 1980. Can high get higher or do heights make you dizzy?

No doubt the rise in oil price since the 2009 global recovery has been tamer in comparison and some investors may end up buying the ‘black gold’ instrument as a hedge against higher oil price. But this leaves investors who wish to get into commodities with a ‘limited choice’ if they wish to avoid getting into the game at multi-year or worse, multi-decade high levels.

On the other hand, the STI currently trades at slightly below the 10-year average valuation of 14.6x FY11 earnings. Thus, valuation is not stretched and the index remains at some 17% below the 2007’s peak of 3875. There is no ‘policy risk’ for equities. In fact, the implementation of all-day trading from March will enable the Singapore stock exchange to keep pace with competition from other Asian stock exchanges over the increase in trading volumes in the region.

So there you have it – bonds are not in favour, there are policy risks in residential properties, staying with SGD is fine and most commodity prices have already risen, which leaves equities still as an attractive choice for investors given the market’s average valuation and ‘pro-equity investment’ policies.

Our preferred themes are Singapore banks, O&G (yards) and laggards with potential catalysts this year (refer to our previous Weekly Comments and Market Focus reports). Avoid, in general, downstream food suppliers because their profit margins will be vulnerable to rising food prices going forward.

Current correction – What’s resilient, what’s not
STI’s YTD high occurred on January 6 at 3280. The index is lower by 1.8% since. Our thematic picks are doing well amid the current market consolidation with bank stocks and rig builders among the recent outperformers.

The following is observed from Table1 that shows the performance of STI component stocks since that date: 1. Bank stocks UOB and DBS have outperformed while OCBC underperformed. In addition to UOB and DBS being price laggards compared to OCBC, both stocks also have lower P/B compared to the latter. DBS’s P/B is the lowest at 1.32x (source: Bloomberg), UOB at 1.46x while OCBC is the highest at 1.63x. Bank stocks’ recent behaviour supports our view that Singapore banks are worth a look because they are undervalued on a P/B basis compared to ASEAN peers. We forecast earnings growth of 10% in 2011. Upside catalysts could come from positive surprises in loan growth and an earlier than expected uptick in SIBOR.

2. Rig builders Keppel Corp and SembCorp Marine also outperformed. Keppel Corp is the top performing index component stock since January 6. Investors cheered Keppel Corp last week after the company reported better-than-expected FY10 earnings, declared a final DPS of 26cts and proposed a 1-for-10 bonus issue. In addition, Keppel Corp had also secured orders for a pair of newbuild jack-ups worth a total of USD416mil; bringing FY11 YTD order wins to about USD1bil with options for another 9 jack-ups worth USD1.7bil. Equally important, should the Petrobras awards not materialize, downside to FY11/12F is limited to 0-2.5%.

3. 5 of the 8 laggard picks that we highlighted in our latest Singapore market strategy report titled “Tortoises today, hares tomorrow” on 5 January are index component stocks: UOB, SIA, Capitaland, NOL and ComfortDelgro. These 5 stocks put up mixed performances. While UOB and ComfortDegro have outperformed, NOL and Capitaland have underperformed and the performance of SIA is quite similar to the STI.

4. Supply chain managers (SCMs) Olam, Noble Group and Wilmar underperformed and so did CPO stock Golden Agri. A low interest rate environment over the past year has helped SCMs increase their volumes handled through additional working capital as well as securing long-term funding for expansion. However, a rising interest rate
environment going forward is seen to have a negative impact on SCMs intended investments’ viability.

Source/转贴/Extract/: DBS Vickers Research
Publish date:31/01/11

埃及動盪驅散元月效應‧馬股打回原形

Created 01/31/2011 - 18:30

(吉隆坡31日訊)馬股元月效應光環不再,走勢先盛後衰,富時大馬綜合指數在1月中旬一度上抵1574.49點歷史高位,但無奈牛氣開始消退,陷入調整格局難自拔,幾乎回吐開年累積漲幅打回原形。

回吐單月漲幅

馬股1月先盛後衰,富時大馬綜指月初在藍籌股領漲下,連續刷破多項歷史高位,更一度創下1574.49點收盤新高,但隨後在套利活動活躍,以及外圍負面因素雙面夾擊下,牛氣顯得氣喘吁吁,指數還一度出現6連跌窘境,最終指數因無法快速站穩腳步,單月漲幅幾乎回吐。

馬股今日在金融和種植類股領跌下跌跌不休,富時大馬綜指開盤即大跌14.22點或%至1507.67點,隨後跌勢進一步加劇,最低見1505.85點,跌16點。雖後獲趁低買盤扶持,指數跌幅開始收窄,但最終仍以跌1.95點至1519.94點黑盤掛收。

黃氏唯高達研究指出,埃及動亂引發市場對經濟溢出效應的憂慮,投資者傾向在佳節假期前夕清倉。

另一分析員建議投資者應對超買和股市情緒轉“熊”保持警惕,新年前套利活動可能主導全週走勢,宜在場外觀望,在市場完成調漲後再重新進場。

回顧全月,由30項大藍籌組成的富時大馬綜指,從12月30日閉市的1518.91點,至1月31日的最後一個交易日報1519.94點,起1.03點,或0.07%;反映整體股市走向的富時大馬全股項指數起0.91%。

產業冠全場
礦務最遜色

總結全月,各大指數普遍收高,但礦務領域表現最差,跌8.13%;原棕油價格陷入調整漩渦,促使種植指數跌跌不休,跌幅達2.08%,名列第二差。

產業領域漲勢凌厲,全月上漲6.96%,表現冠絕群倫;建築領域獲基礎建設工程釋出效應帶動,以2.88%漲幅緊追在後;工業產品領域表現不俗,以1.39%增幅名列第三。

分析員指出,儘管元月效應失靈,令馬股在1月表現令人失望,但馬股基本面仍穩健無損,相信整體趨勢仍朝上揚格局發展,前景持續看俏。

“不過,基於2月為傳統佳節季節,交易日也相對較少,市場交易料趨向淡靜。”

農曆新年後可搭復甦列車

另一分析員認為,聯邦直轄區日和農曆新年假期將至,綜指本週持續調整,但也可為長期投資者帶來許多買進機會,主要是大盤預計在農曆新年後走向復甦,並延續漲勢。

“投資者宜趕搭復甦列車,適機買進銀行、種植、通訊、石油與天然氣等領域。”



埃及動盪
亞股寫今年最低

埃及政治局勢動盪波及亞洲金融市場,亞洲股市週一開盤普遍下挫,寫下今年新低紀錄。

其中日本股市因日圓轉強恐削弱出口股表現,全日下跌1.18點;韓國股市雖獲正面工業生產數據支撐,但跌幅達1.81%。

港股一度挫332點

兩岸三地股市表現參差,香港股市開盤大跌302點,盤中一度重挫332點至23285.6點,但後跌幅逐漸收窄,最終報23447.34點,跌169.68點;上海綜合指數開低走高,最低見2733.29點,上證全日起37.95點至2790.69點。

東南亞股市延續低迷走勢,截至5時,新加坡、泰國、菲律賓和印尼股市跌幅介於1.51%至2.66%。

台灣和越南股市配合農曆新年假期休市。


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source/转贴/Extract/: biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:31/01/11

Rate hikes unlikely to hurt Asia stocks

Business Times - 31 Jan 2011


Rate hikes unlikely to hurt Asia stocks

Rates are rising because growth is recovering, says JP Morgan

By LYNN KAN

RATE hikes are clouding the policy horizon across Asia, but these measures introduced by central banks shouldn't dampen stockmarket performance, said JP Morgan's head of Asia equity client portfolio management, Adam Matthews.

'Rates are rising for the right reason, which is that growth is recovering and demand for capital is increasing,' he told BT.

'Expectations for more hikes are already there. When you look at China in 2006, 2007 during the last tightening cycle, the market continued to do very well even when rates starting to rise. The outlook is reasonably good for the next 12 to 24 months.'

He foresees CPI in China hovering within the 3 to 4.5 per cent range over the next 12 to 24 months.

However, he cautions that if Asian economies enter into a 'multi-year tightening cycle', the markets would 'tend to sell off at the end of the cycle'.

Although inflation in Asia is a major headline risk for market watchers from which they should take their investment cues, it will be more contained as the US and Europe are not expected to recover quickly. 'We think there'll be a soft landing scenario in Asia if US and OECD growth rates remain relatively muted over the next few years. Otherwise, we'd be in a very inflationary environment,' Mr Matthews said.

Although prices of everyday necessities like food and energy have sky-rocketed in China, India and Indonesia, Mr Matthews does not think this weakens the case for an enlarged consumer appetite for goods in these emerging markets.

In fact, he is heralding the return of the capex cycle in Asia as many companies are running at close to full capacity due to deferred spending and expansion during the crisis.

'Companies are going to be making long-term investment decisions and many have very strong cash positions. There's not much need for capital raising, and I think investor appetite for capital raising is starting to wane though there's a strong pipeline of IPOs in Asia,' he said, adding that Hong Kong will see listings such as the US$12 billion one from Citic Group.

'There's a strong consumer trend in Asia; we've seen record wage growth here. I think jewellery, hotels, and retailers are doing very well in an environment where price hikes are taking place,' he said.

The key threat to the retail boom would be if sales volume were to come off.

'You would see companies start to downgrade earnings level, but we believe that companies will be able to push through price increases to maintain margins to offset some of these rising costs they've been feeling,' Mr Matthews said. As such, he is bullish on Chinese retailers such as department store operators and supermarkets.

In India, he foresees companies which benefit from infrastructure spending rising further. 'India will increase coal-fired thermal power station output over the next five years by over 50 per cent, and these companies will benefit from that capital expansion,' he said.

Certain 'high-quality real estate companies in Singapore, Hong Kong or China which could withstand property cooling measures' are also attractive plays.

Mr Matthews is overweight on China as its markets have been a relative laggard in Asia in 2010 and is looking cheap in 2011, with 12 times forecast earnings.

Thailand, too, appears cheap, with the constant threat of political unrest keeping a lid on its valuations.

Mr Matthews is also keeping a modestly bullish view on India, which still presents a good long-term story for itself over the next three to five years.

However, he noted that India's government is less capable of containing the effects of rude spikes in food prices than China, which has managed to tackle issues of hoarding in the supply chain successfully.

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:31/1/11

CIMB: Fed Call

QE2 keeps cruising

• Fed keeps rates at 0.0-0.25%. As widely expected, the Fed left its target rate at 0.0-0.25% in its first scheduled meeting for this year and reaffirmed its commitment to the US$600bn bond purchase programme.



• Economy trudges along. The Fed continued to signal guarded optimism over the economy despite more tentative signs of a sustained pace of recovery. It noted that while the economic recovery is continuing, the rate has been insufficient to bring about a significant improvement in labour market conditions. Other factors restraining growth, i.e. high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth and tight credit, refuse to go away. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls and the housing sector is still depressed. The Fed is not likely to signal a change in monetary policy until the labour and housing markets show a sustained recovery. The policymakers acknowledged that commodity prices have risen but said that long-term inflation expectations remain stable and the measures of underlying inflation continue to trend downward.

• Reaffirmed commitment to QE2. The Fed reiterated that it will continue with the US$600bn bond purchase programme to the end of 2Q11. That said, it added that it will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase programme with an eye on incoming information and how the outlook is changing. The Fed will adjust the programme accordingly so as to foster maximum employment and price stability.

• Rates unlikely to rise before mid-2011. We expect the Fed to stick with its monetary easing bias, at least up to 1H11. The Fed continues to expect the key short-term interest rate to remain “exceptionally low” for an “extended period”. In our view, any sign of rising inflation expectations and sustained improvement in the labour market will prompt the Fed to signal a tentative review of its bond purchaseprogramme. We expect a modest rise in the Fed funds target rate to 0.75% by end-2011.






Source/转贴/Extract/: CIMB Research
Publish date:28/01/11

All eyes and ears on second MRT

The Star Online > Business
Monday January 31, 2011

All eyes and ears on second MRT

By TEE LIN SAY
linsay@thestar.com.my

KUALA LUMPUR: The second mass rapid transit (MRT) line, which circles the Kuala Lumpur city centre (KLCC) orbital and known as the “circle line”, is already in the final planning stage.

The details are expected to be announced in March.

“Its alignment must depict the current and future business districts in Kuala Lumpur,” said Minister in the Prime Minister's Department and chief executive officer of Pemandu Datuk Seri Idris Jala during an Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) update to analysts and fund managers recently.

In the longer term, a third line to Port Klang was being comtemplated, he said. The circle line is expected to cover the hotspots surrounding the KLCC, Jalan Bukit Bintang, the new Kuala Lumpur International Financial District in Dataran Perdana, KL Ecocity, Pusat Bandar Damansara and Sentul, among others.

Meanwhile, the “blue line” the first line which is a 50km alignment that covers Sungai Buloh to Kajang, via Pusat Bandar Damansara and Bukit Bintang is slated for completion in 2016. The network of all the three MRT lines will be fully operational by 2020.

“Greater KL now has a population of 6 million people. By 2020, we will have 10 million people. If we don't have the MRT, the city will be choked. Right now, nearly everybody drives. This is not sustainable,” said Idris.

He added that currently 13% of people commuted using urban transportation. Under the ETP, Idris said this should increase to 50%, adding that the funding structure for the MRT would be disclosed by end-February.

“Apart from reducing travelling time, the MRT will also cause property prices to appreciate because of better accessibility. If your house is near the MRT station, prices will go up because of the commercialisation created around the area,” said Idris.

Some analysts are wary of the ambitious plans laid out by Pemandu.

“As usual, it's a case of execution. Will the Government be able to actually implement the project? We'll need to see it being done to believe it. More importantly, how is the Government going to fund this project?” asked a construction analyst.

Another analyst said the Government was likely to reduce cost by getting developers to co-fund some of the MRT stations.

On implementation, he said that Pemandu would have learnt from past lessons of the LRT, monorail and commuter train.

Some brokers have notably been able to analyse the impact of the proposed MRT comprehensively.

In a Malaysia Market Strategy Report titled “Property boom-boom” released on Jan 26, global investment bank UBS' head of research Chris Oh said Malaysia was set to enjoy improved connectivity in the coming years with the proposed infrastructure rollout of the MRT system and possible high-speed rail linkage between Kuala Lumpur and Singapore.

He said the MRT captured the imagination of the people, developers and investors. He expects property value around a radius of 20km of the city centre to rise significantly.

The preference would be on developers who have vast landbank with high-density mixed development around MRT stations.

“Interest in Malaysian property will be fuelled by foreigners looking out for higher returns (via undervalued currency and low entry costs) than their home countries (Singapore and Hong Kong) and the absence of significant restrictions on property ownership by foreigners,” said Oh.

Singapore-based DBS Research was the first to issue a property sector report titled “Entering a Golden Era” on Jan 14, analysing the impact of MRT on the property sector.

The analyst, Yee Mei Hui, said: “The MRT system is expected to be a structural catalyst for the rise in value of the real estate surrounding MRT stations.”

In the report, the firm was projecting boldly that land values in MRT hot spots could jump by up to six-fold over the next five years.

She said the MRT would have a strong structural impact on the Kuala Lumpur real estate, given that the KL city had been under-invested since the last wave of mega-projects in the late 1990s.

The new MRT will create new opportunities for high-density mixed developments, urban renewal and new suburban townships.

In turn, this has boosted the potential for land prices to reach new peaks with higher plot ratios and more commercial developments. Other than existing prime areas, she identified KL Ecocity, Pusat Bandar Damansara and Sentul as new locations for high-density developments to watch out for.

Source/转贴/Extract/: The Star Online
Publish date:31/01/11

Challenging times ahead for Iskandar

The Star Online > Business
Monday January 31, 2011

Challenging times ahead for Iskandar

By ZAZALI MUSA
zaza@thestar.com.my

JOHOR BARU: Iskandar Regional Development Authority (Irda) chief executive officer Ismail Ibrahim says attracting new investments to Iskandar Malaysia is going to get tougher and more challenging.

He said although the country's first economic growth corridor was making significant progress and moving in the right direction, albeit uncertainties in the global economy, Iskandar could not afford to rest on its laurel.

“The intensity of the competition is becoming greater and we have to prove our sceptics wrong that Iskandar is indeed taking shape as planned,'' Ismail said in an interview with StarBiz.

He said the challenge was not only in attracting new investments to Iskandar, but also receiving financial support from the Government for infrastructure development projects.


Under the Comprehensive Development Plan 20062025, Iskandar is set to transform into a metropolis of international standing.

Iskandar, launched on Nov 4, 2006, is located in the southern most part of Johor and spans over 2,217 sq km. It is three times bigger than Singapore and has five flagship development zones JB City Centre, Nusajaya, Eastern Gate Development, Western Gate Development and Senai-Skudai.

The corridor has attracted investments totalling RM67.68bil up to November last year. A total of RM39.42bil, or 58%, of the total investment was from domestic investors and the balance from foreign investors.

Of the overall investment received, RM6.28bil was from the public sector; RM14.45bil went to tourism, utilities and others; RM20.25bil for properties; and RM26.38bil for the manufacturing sector.

During the same period, RM27.61bil or 40.8% of the total committed investments have been spent on development projects in the region.

Ismail said Irda would continue to work closely with government agencies like Malaysian Industrial Development Authority and Malaysia External Trade Development as well as foreign missions to promote Iskandar.

He said Irda also had a good working relationship with the Johor State Investment Centre (JSIC) although Irda's coverage was limited to Iskandar only, while JSIC covered the entire state.

Irda is the regulatory body mandated to plan, promote and facilitate the development of Iskandar. Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak and Johor Mentri Besar Datuk Abdul Ghani Othman are the co-chairmen.

“We are mindful of the growing Asia-Pacific region and we are coming out with programes to attract more investments from China, India, Indonesia and Singapore,'' Ismail said.

He said besides these countries, Irda would continue to woo investors from Europe, the United States and the Middle East, and would likely to extend its reach to Brazil, Russia and South Africa.

Ismail said although the economies of Europe and the United States were still in the doldrums, Irda believed that they still offered good investment opportunities for Iskandar as not everyone there was affected by the downturn.

He said Iskandar was now in the second phase of its road map which focused mainly on attracting new investments and the completion of phase-one projects.

Ismail said Irda would have more outreach programmes this year with the private sector, which would not be limited to meeting them as groups in seminars or conferences, but would be on one-to-one basis.

“We want to engage them better and intensively so as to share our plans for the private sector in Iskandar and vice versa,'' he said.

Ismail said the private sector stakeholders included property developers, investors, chambers of commerce, small and medium-scale enterprises and land owners.

On why the Government decided to allocate an additional RM600mil for Iskandar in November from the RM339mil announced by Najib in Budget 2011, he said the Government must have its own reasons for that.

Ismail said the bulk of the allocation would be spent this year on ongoing projects like the New Coastal Highway, Iskandar Malaysia public housing project and river cleaning works.

“We believe (the extra allocation) has got to do with our timely delivery of our infrastructure projects and the commitment shown by us and the new projects already in the pipeline,'' he said.

Source/转贴/Extract/: The Star Online
Publish date:31/01/11

CIMB:Capitamalls Asia technical view



Capitamalls Asia (CMA SP; S$1.87) – SELL
FY11P/E: 26.3x, P/BV: 1.2x
• The stock broke out below longer term bearish flag pattern back in November and prices have continued on lower. It has since formed a smaller version of the bearish flag pattern and prices have broken below this flag pattern as well.

• We expect prices to continue to ease although not as large a scale as the November breakdown. Technical indicators are now weakening which supports the bearish view.

• Sell now with a stop placed above the S$1.88-1.89 gap. We think prices could fall towards S$1.68-1.70 with a chance to reaching even S$1.55.


Source/转贴/Extract/: CIMB Research
Publish date:31/01/11

FSM投資論壇 :《投資良機何處尋2011》研討會精彩回顧



惡性通脹重臨? 新一年投資焦點何在? 著名講者黃元山先生及一眾基金專家專業剖析形勢,助你走在大市之先,掌握投資先機

Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:27/01/11

Sunway adds shine to REITs

Sunway adds shine to REITs
By Sharen Kaur
sharen@nstp.com.my
2011/01/31

The real estate investment trusts market is expected to be an attractive investment with positive macro economy numbers and higher disposable income.

MORE property groups are likely to set up real estate investment trusts (REITs) in Malaysia this year as the market continues to stay attractive, said the manager of a major property trust.

"With positive macro economy numbers and higher disposable income, we expect the REIT market to be an attractive investment," said Datuk Jeffrey Ng, the chief executive officer of Sunway REIT Management Sdn Bhd (5176), the manager for Sunway REIT.

Sunway REIT is Malaysia's largest REIT, and it is also the largest REIT initial public offering in Asia, excluding Japan, since 2007.

It was launched by Sunway City Bhd and Sunway REIT Management last July, with eight assets worth RM3.7 billion.

Sunway REIT is expected to double its asset size to RM7 billion in five years, which will comprise 60 per cent of retail properties.

Ng said it is looking for properties to buy, but he declined to elaborate.

Pipeline properties include the two new phases to Sunway Pyramid mall, now known as SP3 and SP4.

Ng said Sunway REIT has helped to bolster the equity market and made it more attractive to foreign institutional players.

"Before the entry of Sunway REIT, the Malaysian REIT (M-REIT) market was never on the international radar screen as the players were too small to attract foreign investors.

"With Sunway REIT coming in, I think we have been catalytic to put M-REIT back on the global funds' radar," he said on Friday in Bandar Sunway, Selangor.

Sunway REIT's assets are Sunway Pyramid Shopping Mall, Sunway Carnival Shopping Mall, SunCity Ipoh Hypermarket, Sunway Resort Hotel and Spa, Pyramid Tower Hotel, Sunway Hotel Seberang Jaya and two office towers.

Sunway REIT is 58 per cent held by institutional funds like the Employees Provident Fund, Permodalan Nasional Bhd, Government of Singapore Investment Corp and Great Eastern Life Assurance (M) Bhd. Some 26 per cent of the trust is held by foreign unit holders.



Source/转贴/Extract/: btimes.com.my
Publish date:31/01/11

History suggests time is right to buy Dow stocks

It's not too late to profit from rally as market's cycle shifts in favor of blue-chip stocks

NEW YORK (AP) -- Are you too late to the rally?

One of the fastest bull markets in history pushed the Dow Jones industrial average to a close near 12,000 last week, the highest point for the index of 30 blue chip stocks in two and a half years. The broader Standard and Poor's 500 index, the benchmark for most mutual funds, flirted with similar highs. An investor who bought an S&P 500 index fund at its March 2009 low has doubled his money since then, assuming dividends were reinvested.

But lost in the attention focused on Dow 12,000 is the fact that it has lagged every other U.S. market index over the past 12 months. Large companies have only recently started to take the lead. That suggests that the bull market could push ahead despite the Dow's 1.4 percent drop on Friday when concerns about political turmoil in Egypt and a couple of disappointing earnings reports gave investors reason to sell.

Markets tend to move in cycles. Riskier smaller companies often fall hardest during a recession and perform the best coming out of one. Larger companies, which often hold more of their value during downturns, tend to perform better after a recovery turns into an economic expansion. After the tech bubble popped, for instance, small companies performed better than the Dow index every year from 2003 to 2006. Dow stocks performed better from 2006 to the start of the financial crisis in 2008.

That cycle is under way again. The Russell 2000, which tracks the performance of smaller companies, returned 27 percent after dividends each of the last two years. The Dow gained 22.6 percent after dividends in 2009 and 14 percent in 2010. So far this year, however, the Dow has gained 2.4 percent, while the Russell index has dropped 1.1 percent.

"We're getting closer to the cross-over point in the bull market," says Doug Godine, managing director at Signal Hill, an investment bank.

Dow stocks range from Caterpillar to Coca Cola and Merck to Microsoft. The index is meant to mirror the overall economy, which is improving. The Commerce Department said Friday that the gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the economy, grew at an annual rate of 3.2 percent from October to December. Economists expect consumer spending to double in 2011 from last year's rate. And businesses are starting to spend more money on computers, energy and basic products.

Dow components International Business Machines and Hewlett-Packard have jumped more than 8 percent since the start of the year. Another Dow member, General Electric, closed above $20 a share Monday, the first time since October 2008. The company said the previous Friday that fourth-quarter profit jumped 52 percent thanks to big gains from its GE Capital and energy infrastructure divisions.

The other reason Dow stocks are doing well lately: They're cheap by recent historical standards. The index's trailing price to earnings ratio, a measure that shows investors how much they are paying for a dollar in earnings, is 14.7, well below the 18.1 it has averaged since 2003. The price to earnings ratio for the S&P 500 index of large companies, meanwhile, is 17.3.

"Big stocks are still playing catch-up," says Bob Doll, chief market strategist at BlackRock, a firm that manages $3.45 trillion in assets. "As they go higher, investors are going to say 'Stocks are going up, so I better buy some more of them.'"


Source/转贴/Extract/: Yahoo.com.sg (David K. Randall, AP Business)
Publish date:31/01/11
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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