Saturday, January 29, 2011

农历新年前夕进场意愿不大 马股本周下探1500点

二零一一年一月二十九日 下午五时五十三分


(吉隆坡29日讯)由于农历新年假期即将来临,在投资者不大愿意进场下,下周大马交易所的股市走势可能下挫,其综指将面对着1500点水平的测试。

有鉴于2月1日为联邦直辖区日,加上2月3日与4日为农历新年,下周的马股交易日只有2天。

据艾芬投资银行零售研究主管纳兹里称,马股会持续处于巩固期,这是因为投资者趁下星期的交易日不长,而纷纷放缓他们的脚步所致。

传国行将推出财政紧缩措施 对市场仅造成轻微压力

他说,由于传言中央银行即将推行财政紧缩措施,使用创造性或非传统性措施,如产业,保证金及存款准备金 ,预计会为本地市场情绪带来了轻微压力。

对外因素会持续牵制下周的股市情绪,包括石油与商品价格上涨后,所带来的通膨率日益挺涨令人关注。

他告诉马新社:“预料中国与印度为了解决资产泡沫,将会进一步制定财政紧缩措施,这会影响本地市场气氛,因为这两个国家是大马的主要贸易夥伴。”

他称,市场基础仍然是完好无损的。

在刚结束的交易中,尽管股市在星期四时获得温和挺涨,但由于重量股被套利,使到股价持续下跌。

种植股与金融股在本周交易中跌幅最重。

富时大马吉隆坡综合指数较上周五降25.54点挂1521.89点。

大马富时全股项指数急降144.50点至10487.56点,富时大马创业板指数跌19.01点报4525.80点。

金融指数较上周五跌53.92点至1396.13点,工商指数降39.50点挂2867.53点,种植股指数滑跌203.36点至7887.76点。

本周股票成交量由前期的71亿3300万股挺至79亿6100万股,而成交额由前期的95亿8500万令吉高涨至114亿3000万令吉。

Source/转贴/Extract/: 光华电子
Publish date:29/01/11

Daiwa: Fortune REIT

Fortune REIT (0778.HK) is +0.7% at HK$4.11, outperforming the HSI's 0.5% fall after announcing its FY10 results Tuesday after market close.

Daiwa says its distribution per unit at 24.35 HK cents (down 19.4% on-year) is 3.6% higher vs house's forecast; "we think this shows a continuous improvement in its operating performance is under way."

Its occupancy rose to 98.7% at end-2010 from 96.4% at end-2009. The house expects a positive outlook for retail spending in HK, and tips Fortune to continue to benefit from positive rental reversion. The house keeps the stock rated Outperform and maintains its target at HK$4.90.

Source/转贴/Extract/: Daiwa
Publish date:26/01/2010

SIA disappoints; faces stronger headwinds ahead

With global economic growth expected to level off and inflation a mounting concern, Singapore Airlines appears to be facing potential headwinds that could disrupt its flight to recovery in the coming quarters.

The full-service carrier reported a disappointing set of third quarter results after the market closed on Jan 28, falling short of the average profit estimates of analysts tracked by Bloomberg. For the three months ending Dec 31, SIA posted a 29% y-o-y fall in net income to $288.3 million, after it booked charges of as much as $199 million relating to antitrust cargo fines.

While the carrier accepted the plea offer made by the United States’ Justice Department in November, it is currently appealing fines imposed by the European Commission and the South Korean Fair Trade Commission and plans to contest the charges, it said in today’s statement to the Singapore Exchange.

Spending on fuel -- SIA’s biggest expense -- also rose 8% to $1.11 billion in the same period. Earlier on Jan 21, the airline had announced an increase in fuel surcharges for tickets issued from Jan 27.

While the carrier has so far been able to offset higher costs by increasing the prices of tickets, the adjustments “will offer only partial relief of higher operating costs arising from recent increases in the price of jet fuel,” SIA said, suggesting that yields could face future pressure in the low growth and high inflation environment expected going forward. Passenger yield, a measure of the average price a traveller pays to fly one kilometre, was 12.1 cents in the quarter compared with 10.5 cents a year earlier.

Demand slowing, competition rising
Already, there are signs that demand for air travel is slowing. During the October-December quarter, the number of passengers flown dipped 0.9% to 4,372 from 4,411 in the previous corresponding quarter, resulting in a 2.7 percentage point slip in load factors to 79.7%.

In addition, CEO Goh Choon Phong, who took over from Chew Choon Seng on Jan 1, will face rising competition from budget carriers. Tiger Airways, parted-owned by SIA, today reported an improved load factor of 88% y-o-y for the quarter and plans to increase its capacity by 40% and grow its fleet to 35 aircraft by next March from 25 currently. Meanwhile, Qantas Airways’ Jetstar, which operates a hub in Singapore, also plans to boost its capacity in Asia by 30% this year.

SIA also faces stronger competition from other full-service carriers in the region. Cathay Pacific, one of its fiercest rivals, is carrying more passengers and the Hong Kong-based airline will be launching new business-class cabins in an attempt to lure more executive travellers away from SIA’s targeted consumer base.

Indeed, Asia Pacific’s full-service airlines recorded a strong rebound in traffic demand last year, helped by robust economic growth in Asia and an overall improvement in global economic conditions, the Center of Asia Pacific Aviation reported. During the year, the region’s carriers flew 185 million passengers, up 70% from 2002 levels.

Then, there is the rise of full-service carriers from beyond Asia. Dubai-based Emirates Airlines, for instance, is building up a formidable fleet of aircraft with its order of 90 Airbus A380s. In comparison, SIA, with an operating fleet comprising 109 passenger aircraft, took delivery of two Airbus A330-300s and reinstated one Boeing 747-400 and one Boeing 777 during the quarter, as additional capacity was added to its Osaka, Seoul and Houston routes.

While SIA is aggressively fighting back, it concedes that growth is likely to be challenging in the months ahead. “As airlines including SIA continue to inject capacity, advance passenger bookings for the final quarter of the 2010-11 financial year are levelling off,” the airline cautions in the statement.

Looks like new CEO Goh will have his work cut out for him in the months ahead. — Kang Wan Chern


Source/转贴/Extract/: The EDGE Weekend Comment Jan 28
Publish date:29/01/11

Friday, January 28, 2011

胡立陽 天上掉下來的20%禮物



Source/转贴/Extract/:youtube
Publish date:28/01/11

“存款利率要高於CPI”‧周小川暗示升息?

Created 01/28/2011 - 19:20

中國人民銀行行長周小川表示,“現在貨幣政策不是過份收縮”,將保持存款利率高於消費價格指數(CPI)升幅,且不排除使用數量型和價格型工具,市場猜測春節前後可能再升息。

周小川接受《新華社》、《中新社》聯訪時表示,人行力爭中期內保持平均存款利率高於CPI升幅,使得老百姓的存款得到保值增值,不受到損害。

市場認為,周小川的發言通常有“示警”作用,從去年第四季以來,周小川的發言往往透露人行貨幣政策動態的玄機。

人行去年以來總計2度升息,累計升息幅度達0.5%,目前銀行業1年期基準存款利率為2.75%,遠低於通膨水準,顯示儲戶手中的錢實際上已經貶值。中國去年12月CPI升幅達到4.6%。

此外,周小川表示,人民幣匯率參考一籃子貨幣大約有20種,他同時重申要增強人民幣匯率彈性。

這是中國首次大致披露人民幣匯率所參照的一籃子貨幣的數量。

周小川在接受人行主管的《金融時報》採訪時表示,人民幣匯率參考一籃子貨幣,這些貨幣除了包括10種左右發達國家的貨幣外,還有一半是新興市場國家的貨幣。

看好新興市場國家貨幣

他表示,儘管新興市場國家貨幣可能從貿易量、投資量來講佔比都比較小,但是人行看好這些經濟體的發展。

他重申,要堅持匯率改革方向,增強人民幣匯率彈性。在市場供求基礎上,參照一籃子貨幣的變化來進行調節,保持人民幣匯率在合理均衡水平上的基本穩定。

中國從未公佈人民幣匯率參照的一籃子貨幣的全部組成貨幣及其權重。此前周小川僅透露過包括美元、歐元等11種貨幣為籃子貨幣。


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Source/转贴/Extract/: biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:28/01/11

博彩、航空、建築、產業、油氣受看好‧金兔年利股市

Created 01/28/2011 - 19:01

(吉隆坡28日訊)即將降臨的金兔年,預料可將馬股推向另一個高峰。黃氏唯高達從風水角度為兔年馬股把脈;馬股公牛已奔馳兩年,第三個年頭的金兔仍有衝勁,雖尚有攀高空間,惟卻是走勢起落波動刺激的一年。

根據5行,兔年天干為“金”,地支為“木”,金木相克,意味著今年馬股會動蕩不穩,大部份時候保持波動活絡,投資者有必要注意,表面平靜裡可能內存“暗流凶涌”。

年杪或下挫

兔年地支為“木”,有利生火,由於“木”生火”,所以屬火的股市有望進一步興旺,承接虎年的熱力,但或“先盛後軟”,年杪時段需要謹慎,因為“水龍”將來,或會撲滅股市“熱情”。今年股市投資如果不夠機警,可能到頭來是“一場歡喜一場空”。

今年是“金兔”年,基於“火克金”,“金生土”,在兔年有希望“順水順意”領域、主要是屬火及屬土的行業,屬“火”業包括股市、博彩娛樂和航空業,因為金為火業帶來錢財;金為土業帶來活躍和繁忙,屬土行業包括建築、產業、農業和油氣相關業將因活動大增加而受惠。

上兩個兔年,馬股表現都是先盛後衰;1999年的兔年,馬股綜指全年漲68%;惟1987年(24年前),馬股則是在大漲71%後暴跌,因為年杪表現平平終結。

農曆60年為一週期,在60年前1951年的兔年(一甲子)的美國股市開始先跌,較後勇態畢露,使道瓊斯指數頻創新高,希望今年能夠歷史重演。

預料兔年的馬股綜指目標可揚升至1730點高峰、尚有約13%漲幅。雖然股市已走高兩年,進入兔年第三個年頭,預料馬股仍有揚升空間,公牛繼續奔跑。

黃氏唯高達表示,若要在馬股脫穎而出,投資者需要有“野兔”般精神。相信你的生存直覺,特別是兔子性格是穩健中取勝,以它的長耳過濾股市的雜音,相信本身的投資判斷。

在投資過程中要跳過遇到的任何障礙。迅速避過潛在風險,忌過於自信,因為會招來自滿。

目前馬股進入調整僅是間中過程,反而是趁低扯購機會。特別是馬股是落後區域及投資不足股市,使馬股在兔年有希望是“耀眼亮麗”的一年。

略為回顧就要過去的虎年,風水師的預測在虎年應驗,就是先盛後軟頻創新高。

黃氏唯高推荐兔年8大首選股,包括有“虎頭”標誌的馬來亞銀行(MAYBNAK, 1155, 主板金融組),預料在區域併購活動下繼續“虎虎生威”。

農業的森那美(SIME, 4197, 主板貿服組),擁有龐大地庫和棕油價高漲支撐,預料會“土生金”,有作為。建築業首選是金務大(GAMUDA, 5398, 主板建築組),捷運加持,兔年料行大運;其他諸如雲頂(GENTING, 3182, 主板貿服組)、實達集團(SPSETIA, 8664, 主板產業組)、亞洲航空(AIRASIA, 5099, 主板貿服組)、達企業(TA, 4898, 主板金融組)及達洋企業(DAYANG, 5141, 主板貿服組),都是兔年受惠公司。




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Source/转贴/Extract/: biz.sinchew-i.com
publish date:28/01/11

Spice i2i's rights issue upsets shareholders

Business Times - 28 Jan 2011

Spice i2i's rights issue upsets shareholders
They say it gives chairman chance to up stake in company at 'cheap' price
By LYNN KAN

SOME shareholders of Spice i2i are upset over the Internet telephony company's proposed rights issue that has driven its share price to a 19-month low of eight cents.

For one, they told BT that the current rights issue appears to favour Spice i2i chairman Indian billionaire Bhupendra Kumar Modi, giving him the opportunity to raise his stake in the company to 60 per cent at what they perceived as a 'cheap' price. They were referring to the pricing of the rights shares at 5.5 cents against the 11.5 cents that the stock was trading at before news of the planned offering.
Spice i2i said on Jan 25 that it intends to raise up to $146.35 million in net proceeds from the issue of 2.74 billion rights shares 'to provide the company with funds for potential acquisitions in the near future and to be in a position to take advantage of such opportunities'.

If the rights shares are not subscribed for by entitled shareholders, certain entities controlled by Dr Modi may subscribe for the shares. If they do, Dr Modi, his relations and his companies will hold 60 per cent instead of their current 20 per cent in Spice i2i.

Spice i2i did not get back to BT when contacted about these shareholder concerns.
Shareholders are doubtful about how exactly the company is going to use the funds from its latest rights issue, claiming it is still not clear how funds raised from the previous rights issue in August are to be used.

Spice i2i has said the $137 million raised then would be used to buy over the remaining 35 per cent of CSL, a Malaysian mobile phone service company, it does not already own, though it has not said how much of August's rights issue it will use for that purpose.

In a 'clarification of media coverage and press releases' issued on the SGX late last night, the company added that it has not determined yet how the proceeds from the proposed rights issue will be used.

Shareholder Denis Distant wrote in to BT questioning why Spice i2i is undertaking 'regular 'rights issue' exercises'.'

There is also the issue of Spice i2i's US$175 million acquisition of Indonesia's Affinity Group, which a shareholder alleges Spice i2i has overpaid for.

He pointed out Affinity Group's pro forma net book value is only US$29.5 million as at Sept 30, 2010, nearly US$145 million below Spice i2i's purchase price.??

In illustrating the financial effects of the proposed acquisition, Spice i2i notes in a regulatory filing that the group's net tangible assets per share, as at Dec 31 2009, will drop from 6.52 US cents to a negative 7.01 US cents.

In last night's announcement, the company also clarified media reports on its proposed acquisition of Affinity Group, saying that no turnover of Affinity for FY2010 will be consolidated with Spice i2i for the current financial period.


Source/转贴/Extract/:www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:28/01/11

CIMB: Holding up well

Singapore Strategy
OVERWEIGHT Maintained
3,219.8 @27/01/11
Holding up well

• Maintain Overweight. The Singapore market has held up well amid recent selldowns in Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand. YTD, FSSTI is up 1.1% while Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand are down 5.1%, 5.0%, and 4.7% respectively. The other ASEAN market still in positive territory is Malaysia. We keep our OVERWEIGHT position and end-CY11 FSSTI target of 3,560, translating into 11% upside potential. Our target implies 1.9x CY11 P/BV (slightly above mean) and 14.4x CY12 P/E (below mean).


• Companies to sell in any short-term sell-down. Our top-5 Underperform ratings among the big caps are Straits Asia, SATS, SGX, CCT, and AREIT. Our top-5 Underperform ratings among small and mid-caps are Tiong Woon, China XLX, Tiger Airways, Ausgroup, and Hong Leong Asia.

• Companies that still trade above their historical means include Genting Singapore, Noble, F&N, SembMarine, Wilmar, KepCorp, SCI, OCBC, DBS, KepLand, OUE, UOL, NOL, Suntec REIT, CCT, Indofood, SIA Engineering, SATS, SMRT, CMT, and SingLand.

• The top-10 outperforming stocks YTD are Amtek, CWT, PEC, UOB, Parkway Life REIT, Straits Asia, China Minzhong, Suntec REIT, Goodpack and Cosco.

• Companies to add on dips include Cache Logistics Trust, DBS, Golden Agri, Genting Singapore, KepCorp, KepLand, OUE, SIA, Venture and Yangzijiang.



Singapore market holding up well

Holding up well against other ASEAN markets. The Singapore market has held up well amid recent sell-downs in Indonesia, Philippines, and Thailand. YTD, FSSTI is up 1.1% while Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand are down 5.1%, 5.0%, and 4.7% respectively. The other ASEAN market still in positive territory is Malaysia. We attribute the FSSTI’s resilience to the following:

• The Singapore market had not run up as much as ASEAN markets in 2010, and hence the less severe pull-back;

• Singapore is less expensive than ASEAN markets in terms of P/BV and forward P/Es when compared with the 2003-07 cycle mean valuations; and

• The perception of Singapore as a safe haven in times of regional market volatility.

Stocks to trim in the event of volatility
Still positive on Singapore market. We keep our OVERWEIGHT position and end- CY11 FSSTI target of 3,560, translating into 11% upside potential. Our year-end target implies 1.9x CY11 P/BV (slightly above mean) and 14.4x CY12 P/E (below mean).

However, in any short-term regional sell-down, our top-5 Underperform ratings among the big caps are:
(1) Straits Asia, which is trading at a premium to our DCF target price, which already assumes the company will be able to produce in the Northern Leases by FY12, and 80m tonnes of Northern Leases reserves. De-rating catalysts are expected from lower output guidance, higher oil prices jacking up costs, disappointing results and consensus earnings downgrades for FY11.

(2) SATS, with food inflation rearing its head, and risks of competition from a third ground handler at Changi Airport. Moreover, the company continues to trade at a premium to its historical 7-year mean of 12.4x P/E. De-rating catalysts include higher headline food inflation, and the commencement of operations by the third ground handler at Changi Airport.

(3) SGX. While its new initiatives have been boosting turnover, we believe they will require time to gain traction. We recently cut our FY11 EPS estimate by 7% and FY12-13 estimates by 3% after revising our securities ADV to S$1.8bn for FY11 and S$2.27bn for FY12, and factoring in S$20m of transaction costs from its proposed merger with ASX.

(4) CCT, which is the cheapest large cap in the SREIT space, with fairly attractive yields (5%) vs. physical office yields (sub-4%). However, in view of management’s acquisition intentions, sub-4% cap rates in recent Grade-A office transactions, and intensifying competition for assets from private funds, an accretive acquisition looks increasingly remote.

(5) AREIT. While the industrial outlook appears to be stabilising and the number of defaults are declining, competition from existing and upcoming industrial REITs and funds could make it increasingly challenging for AREIT to grow much more in Singapore. Expansion in the region is likely to increase its risk profile and dilute benefits from a fully tax-transparent portfolio.

Our top-5 Underperform ratings among small and mid-caps are:
(1) Tiong Woon, whose earnings fell short of expectations for the first three quarters of FY10 (fourth quarter above only because of our over-pessimism). There were no signs of a recovery in 1QFY11 (ended Sep 10). The supply of cranes in Singapore remains excessive against the number of construction projects. With the local market still expected to account for the bulk of its turnover (FY10 62%, FY09 66%), we remain cautious. A recovery would hinge on a pick-up in overseas projects that could hopefully make up for the persistent weakness in Singapore.

(2) China XLX. We believe it is early days to revisit the stock as de-rating catalysts could come from: 1) deteriorating margins for methanol; 2) high urea ASPs paradoxically affecting volume sales; and 3) costlier coal input. Reiterate Underperform with an unchanged target price of S$0.45, set at 7x CY12 P/E.

(3) Tiger Airways. Though we like Tiger's time-tested business model and though industry conditions are favourable for its longer-term growth, inherent operational risks could derail Tiger from its growth trajectory. We see headwinds from: 1) lingering pilot issues; 2) a potential drag from Thai Tiger; 3) tough competition in Australia; and 4) slender margins. In our view, de-rating catalysts are: 1) difficulties in securing pilots for its fleet expansion; 2) regulatory hurdles for its SEAIR partnership in the Philippines; 3) stiffening competition in Australia; and 4) further delays in the launch of its Thai-Tiger joint venture.

(4) Ausgroup. While management has turned more positive on orders, we believe it is too early to call for a turn with execution issues and near-term low tendering activity implying a quiet 3QFY11. We see de-rating catalysts from further margin pressure and slower-than-expected order-book replenishment.

(5) Hong Leong Asia. We remain cautious in view of the drag from Xinfei, which typically accounts for about 40% of its profit. With excess industry capacity, we expect Xinfei to remain a victim of competition with margin pressure. De-rating catalysts are weaker-than-expected earnings from Xinfei.

Stocks to add in any major sell-down
On the flipside, we would take the opportunity to add these companies in the event of a short-term pullback:
(1) Cache Logistics Trust. We see a potential uplift to its DPU from acquisitions given Cache’s small AUM size and debt headroom. Downside risks to earnings should be limited by a long weighted average lease to expiry of more than six years vs. the 5-year average for industrial REITs. Catalysts could come from acquisitions, particularly when P/BV valuations are less demanding than peers.

(2) DBS. We believe its operational changes are under-appreciated by the market. Investment banking and capital-market fees could surprise in 2011, as low interest rates and cashed-up balance sheets are conducive for a pick-up in capital market-related deals in 2011. DBS is well-poised to benefit from this.

(3) Golden Agri offers the highest earnings leverage to rising CPO prices as it sells most of its CPO on spot and has the highest earnings exposure to upstream plantations. A low gearing also supports potential M&As. The group is keen to expand its estates but new plantings have been affected by NGO pressure.

(4) Genting Singapore can benefit from a positive outlook for gaming in Asia. Singapore’s gaming market could potentially reach S$7bn-9bn by 2011/12, a 40+% increase. Upside lies in the licensing of junkets. We believe premium valuations are justified by its superior EBITDA margins.

(5) KepCorp has significant upside if it can bag all 13 Petrobras rig orders. Also, a recent order for a premium jack-up rig by Norwegian investor, Standard Drilling, signals the return of asset speculators to the newbuild market. Stock catalysts are not limited to its O&M arm. A strengthening of Singapore’s office sector and resilient overseas housing sales would be positive for its property division.

(6) KepLand. In an environment of record prices and heightened regulatory risks in the residential segment, we prefer the relatively inexpensive commercial property developers. With large exposure to prime office assets, KepLand and OUE remain very well placed in this buyers' market. They stay as our top-2 picks in the property sector. KepLand is beginning to reap the fruits of its focus on prime commercial assets (42% of RNAV) and entry-level residential projects in China (70% of its China exposure). Trading gains from these two segments could become recurring in 2011-12.

(7) OUE. The recent share financing by OUE’s majority shareholder may have exacerbated share-overhang concerns but was not entirely unexpected. The vendor had indicated before that it wished to pare down its stake in OUE to 51%. At the group level, nothing much has changed. Exposure to quality assets in the office, retail and hotel segments, reinforced by balance-sheet strength, remains its key attraction. OUE trades at a 26% discount to RNAV.

(8) SIA. We see further yield increases and capacity restoration in FY11 as the aviation industry continues to recover. FY11 ASK should rise 2.2% yoy. Forward bookings suggest that premium travel demand is holding up, and load factors are expected to stay in the high-70s or low-80s.

(9) Venture offers attractive dividend yields and healthy earnings growth. Despite the loss of its high-volume low-margin HP printer business, it has been able to turn in steady earnings growth, reflecting the strong recovery in its other businesses. Earnings are now largely derived from enterprise and industrial businesses, which are more stable. The company is also able to sustain its 50ct dividends with its strong free cash flows and balance sheet.

(10) Yangzijiang. Backed by a revival in containership orders, we continue to like YZJ for its proven tight execution and improved productivity from its new yard. We expect gross margins to stay above 20% in FY11. Despite good liquidity and above-average operating metrics, YZJ trades at a discount to the larger Singapore yards (11x vs. 16x).

Source/转贴/Extract/: Publish date:

HwangDBS: Hopping Rabbit, Hounding Bull

Market Strategy

Hopping Rabbit, Hounding Bull

• The cosmic energy of the Rabbit could drive equities to greater heights

• Lady luck will smile on the plantations, gaming, construction, property, aviation, stock market and oil & gas sectors

• Our bullish opinion is affirmed by expectations for the FBM KLCI to hit 1,730 (+13% upside potential)




Pulling more rabbits out of the hat. Even after two consecutive years of respectable stock market gains, the bulls are still running. So say the geomancers whose crystal balls are predicting that the equities rally will extend into the Year of the Rabbit (which will rule from 3 Feb 2011 to 22 Jan 2012).

Run with the hare. According to Chinese astrology, 2011 will see the arrival of a Wood Rabbit in a Metal year. While metal and wood are two conflicting elements – which represents a sense of instability – the stock market will remain lively and active for most of the year, although caution is needed in the later stages.

To stay ahead in the game, investors should embrace the spirit of the hare. Believe in your survival instincts, as the rabbit symbolizes prosperity through resilience. Use the long bunny ears to filter out market noises and rely on your own judgments. Leap over obstacles along the path. Be quick to bolt from any perceived danger. Avoid overconfidence, which can breed complacency.

Hop on the bunny rally. From an astrological perspective, the planetary alignment tells us that industries associated with the fire and earth elements – e.g. gaming, aviation,construction and property – will enjoy good fortunes in the coming year. Check out eight stocks on our prosperity list that will ride on the luck factor.

Meanwhile, we view the ongoing market correction as an intermittent pattern only, which offers opportunities for investors to accumulate on weakness. As an under-owned laggard stock market in the region with defensive qualities, the Malaysian bourse could shine through in the Year of the Rabbit.

Here comes the Hare
Enter the Year of the Metal Rabbit Hopes abound fortunes will grow bit by bit But beware of threats bugging the bunny Or we could all end up with little money The New Year is said to bring resilience As the rabbit is adored for its endurance and intelligence No matter how he is tossed, he always land on his feet Hopping over every obstacle he meets Follow the footsteps of the hare Should you wish to pick the winning share Emulate its qualities, thrive on unpredictability You will burrow through a path to prosperity Optimism is in the air. Just when virtually every investor and analyst in town is bullish on Malaysian equities, even the feng shui practitioners and soothsayers are singing a similar tune.

Before we proceed, here is our usual caveat. These are merely general predictions using a combination of Chinese horoscope and metaphysics principles. We have not made any individual considerations.

Whatever the omens may be, the truth is out there. It is up to you to believe or ignore the celestial observations. This report is prepared merely for your enjoyment, and is not meant to replace our mainstream investment analysis approach. Stay with us as we explore what fortunes the Year of the Rabbit will bring.

When the Tiger roared
All’s well that ends well. The Malaysian bourse got off to a promising start in the Year of the Metal Tiger and continued its climb almost uninterrupted to chart new peaks throughout the year. The bullish performance was actually in tune with the consensus opinion of the feng shui masters, who had predicted that share markets would plot fresh highs initially before cooling down towards the end (see our Crouching bull, prowling tiger report dated 11 Feb 2010).

Investors who acted on our report should be richer now (no need to thank us specifically, as helping you to make money is our job!). In that write-up, we recommended eight prosperity stocks. They registered maximum returns of between 13% and 75% at their peak. Consequently, all except three performed better than the benchmark FBM KLCI, which gained as much as 26% at its height. Figure 1 depicts the performance review at a glance.

Year of the Metal Rabbit
According to Chinese almanac, the Tiger will soon leap out to make way for the Rabbit to hop in and start its reign on 3 Feb 2011 through to 22 Jan 2012. The lunar calendar runs on a 12-year cycle which is represented by different animal signs. Chinese geomancers believe there are five elements that form the core of everything in the universe. Basically, the cycle of life origins and ends within the five elements of fire, earth, metal, water, wood (in this particular order). For the coming Lunar New Year, we will be ushering in the Year of the Rabbit, with metal as the heavenly stem and wood as the earthly branch. So what’s up, doc?

Stock market performance in preceding Rabbit years
It was a mixed performance 12 and 24 years ago. While the Malaysian bourse trended higher in the early half of the last two Rabbit years, they had contrasting endings. The FBM KLCI registered a stellar 68% return in the Rabbit year in 1999, but ended flat in 1987 (Appendix 1 and 2).

To be more precise, the Chinese calendar runs on 60-year cycle, rotating among the 12 animal zodiacs and five elements. The Year of the Metal Rabbit last appeared between 6 Feb 1951 and 26 Jan 1952. Back then, the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the U.S. overcame initial bumps to chart a series of higher highs subsequently (). Let’s hope history will repeat itself!

The stock market in 2011
The Rabbit is saying the stock market rally will extend into 2011. Generally speaking, it should probably share similar readings with the Tiger year, which also saw the dominance of metal over wood.

As metal destroys wood – based on the cycle of birth and destruction that governs the inter-relationship of the five elements – this combination implies a possible clash in energy forces. Consequently, there could be underlying tension and conflict even if things appear calm on the surface. Yet, the existence of the wood element – which creates fire according to the cycle of birth and destruction – would fuel the stock market (represented by the fire element) and extend the two-year run-up. But investors are advised to be more vigilant towards the year-end with possible cooling effects from the water element when the Year of the Water Dragon arrives in 2012.

Hence, the moral of the story is that investors should not take things for granted even when they are on a winning streak. Otherwise, there might be a rude awakening in the end.

Auspicious sectors
From an astrological perspective, lady luck is forecast to smile on businesses that are associated with two elements:

(a) Fire (e.g. stock markets, gaming entertainment, aviation). As fire conquers metal, and metal is considered a symbol of money to the fire industries, the metal element is expected to bring prosperity to these sectors in the Year of the Metal Rabbit;

(b) Earth (e.g. construction, property, agriculture, petroleumrelated). Since earth produces metal, and metal is the output, the metal year will bring a hive of activities to the earth industries.

Prosperity stocks
We reaffirm our bullish stance on Malaysian equities, projecting the benchmark FBM KLCI to reach 1,730 at the end of 2011. This represents 13% potential upside.

Combing through our buy ideas and connecting their fundamental merits to the celestial readings of supposedly good industry fortunes, as well as positive traits of the Rabbit,

we picked eight stocks that are loaded with symbolic prosperity meanings.

Although the Year of the Tiger is on its way out, Maybank (TP RM10.80) – with a tiger head as its corporate logo – could still leap higher after a roaring run-up last year. This ambitious financial institution is still hunting for acquisition targets as it seeks to expand its footprints in the region. Next, within the agriculture space, big-cap Sime Darby (TP RM10.20) – with hundreds of thousands of hectares of estates planted with trees of fortune – offers exposure to still buoyant CPO prices.

Gamuda (TP RM5.25) is our top pick as a construction proxy. Just like the Rabbit, it possesses an uncanny gift of making timely moves. A case in point: following its recent appointment as the project delivery partner to implement the massive MRT infrastructure project in Kuala Lumpur, Gamuda has placed itself in a sweet spot to clinch the tunnelling jobs (estimated to be worth RM14 billion).

Another entity with sharp business acumen (also a positive attribute of the Rabbit) is Genting (TP RM14.60). Today, this conglomerate is a sprawling empire with operations in gaming & entertainment, plantations, power and oil & gas across Asia, the U.K. and U.S.

Meanwhile, market leader SP Setia (TP RM7.70) – mainly admired for its tactful and considerate business dealings – is our choice for a large cap property stock.

Finally, driven by perseverance and self-assurance to expand its network of flight routes in an unobtrusive manner, we like budget airline AirAsia (TP RM3.20), which is always nimble in its moves to capture the growing travel demand.

For smaller cap plays, we have selected: (a) TA Enterprise (TP RM1.25) to ride on the robust stock market activities; and (b) Dayang (TP RM3.40) as a proxy to the oil & gas sector.








Source/转贴/Extract/: HWANGDBS Vickers Research
Publish date:28/01/11

HwangDBS: Gamuda - Buy this laggard

Gamuda
BUY RM3.80
Price Target : 12-month RM 5.25
Buy this laggard

• PDP role a prelude to high-margin tunneling works

• Vietnam a higher-impact, longer term bet

• High conviction BUY with RM5.25 TP (39% upside) PDP a prelude to the real deal. The MMC-Gamuda JV’s appointment as PDP for the RM36bn MRT could be a prelude to the RM14bn tunneling works. It could add RM2.00/share (DCF methodology) if we factor in only 50% of value. Of the 55km initial Sg. Buloh-Kajang line (blue line), 10km is underground with a potential contract value of RM3-4bn. The current time line is for some tenders to open in April and works to start in July. We understand there is a new consultant - Halcrow – who will by May come up with a definitive alignment for the red and circle lines. The previous alignment was considered flawed because the circle line was centred on the KL Sentral/Bangsar area.

Vietnam more important than MRT? After several false starts, its RM6bn Celadon City development in HCMC is slated for launch in February after CNY, and the RM10bn Gamuda City (Hanoi) in April, with total maiden sales estimated at RM700m for FY11. When ramped up, Vietnam could be a bigger earnings kicker than the MRT, with RM13.6bn GDV for its effective stake (MRT: RM7bn), higher margins of 18-20% (MRT: c.10%), and longer duration of 10 years (MRT: 5 years). Sales on the local front continue to exceed expectations with YTD-Nov10 hitting RM450m, when annualised will be ahead of its revised RM1bn target.

Raw offer for Splash. The new offer from the Selangor State for RM5.95/share is valid until 30 Jan 2011. We do not foresee Gamuda accepting this, as it works out to
about half the previous offer of RM1.579bn (Gamuda’s 40% share RM632m or 28 sen/share) that it had accepted. The offer is silent on O&M, which we assume will still be done by Gamuda Water.

High conviction laggard. Gamuda remains on our high conviction list as the most leveraged proxy to the MRT and long term structural change in Vietnam’s property market. It remains an unjustified laggard against closest peer, IJM.

Gamuda remains an unjustified laggard.
Gamuda remains a laggard vs IJM on both a 3-month and 6 –month basis (Please see Figure 1). On a 3-month basis, it has also only tracked the performance of the KLCI. We believe the underperformance vs IJM is on the back of a few factors :-

i) the merger between IJM’s property unit, IJM Land and MRCB where the market also rerated IJM as it would have benefited from the ability to carve out MRCB’s construction and concession assets. The merger was subsequently aborted;

ii) the overall buoyant CPO prices which benefited IJM’s plantation arm.

iii) More recently, Gamuda’s water concession, Splash received an unfavourable offer from the Selangor State Government which in our view is part of the reason for the recent retracement in its share price from the 2011 peak of RM4.20.

Nonetheless, we expect this underperformance to reverse in 2011 in the run up to the MMC-Gamuda JV clinching the lucrative tunneling portion of the MRT project and the

successful maiden launches of its Vietnam projects in 1HCY11. Besides the MRT project, we think Gamuda is also a front runner for Durkhan 2, Langat 2 water treatment plant and the runway portion of the LCCT.

Source/转贴/Extract/: HWANGDBS Vickers Research
Publish date:27/01/11

KN: Pantech New revenue streams in FY12

Pantech Group Holdings
BUY
RM0.655
Target Price: RM0.79

New revenue streams in FY12

l 9MFY11 was dismal with RM23.9m net profit achieving only 50% of both our forecast and consensus at RM47.2m. On the whole, 3Q11’s performance was weak as trading division recorded lower sales while manufacturing suffered from higher material cost and weaker USD. Special interim single tier dividend of 0.6 sen was declared.

l QoQ, revenue slide 22.3% to RM75.4m as trading sales volume declined (- 24.3%) while manufacturing continued to be hampered by weaker USD and higher cost of materials procured back in 2008. In addition, higher expenses incurred for ESOS, bonus issue and rights issue of ICULS with free warrants have also collectively dragged earnings. Overall, trading division’s operating margin of 15.1% reflected the weak performance with 4.4% decline but manufacturing displayed 2.3% hike (2Q11: 5.4%) with higher margins from higher carbon steel long-bend pipe sales .

l YTD YoY, 9MFY11 operating profit of RM35.6m declined 41.2% on similar weak USD currency and sales. However, management guided better times ahead with expected sales growth from Middle Eastern venture and new market expansion into Argentina and Turkey for FY12. Furthermore, the bulk of the higher cost manufacturing materials had also been exhausted in 2010 with matching sales and material prices going forth.

l Stainless steel plant in Pasir Gudang, Johor commenced operation in January11 with guided orders until April11 from both USA and locally. Management is optimistic on the domestic prospects with plans to increase current production from 500mt/month to 1200mt/month by year end in line with government’s focus and recent increased activities in the local O&G downstream industry.

l Downgrade our FY11 net profit by 28.6% to RM33.9m (previously RM47.2m) as we have factored in lower trading sales and manufacturing contributions. However, we maintain FY12 net profit at RM50.7m with contributions from stainless steel plant and new trading market sales.

l Upgrade to BUY with a revised target price RM0.79 on unchanged 7x FY12F EPS of 11.3sens. Despite weak 3Q11, we continue to be positive on FY12’s prospects with new revenue streams from a) stainless steel plant b) new trading market (Middle East, Argentina and Turkey) c) expected Increase in domestic O&G downstream activity.

Source/转贴/Extract/: .kenangaresearch
Publish date:28/01/11

经济好转需求增 航空业前景看俏

2011/01/28 11:32:56 AM
●南洋商报

(吉隆坡27日讯)经济好转需求量日增,加上进入周期性的鼎盛丰收期,分析员看好航空业的表现。

除了是大势所在,国际航空运输协会的报告也指出,这一次的大赢家将会是亚洲,欧洲反而是表现最弱的区域。

根据该协会的统计,亚太平洋的业者为2010年间航空业里取得最多盈利的业者,预料这股趋势将会持续至2011年。无论如何,该协会估计2011年的航空业引力将会比2010年来得低,主要是因为2011年的原油价格会比较高。

既然大势对亚太区有利,马银行投资银行进一步在报告书中指出,马来西亚在2010年首9个月的航空交通量增长幅度,已达致自2004年以来的最高。

我国在去年首9个月的交通量增长幅度为15.1%,直逼2004年的记录15.5%。

国际乘客增加

马来西亚的国际乘客已有逐渐增加的趋势,在去年首9个月内就占了49%,比前一年同期增加了3%。

分析员指出,旅游业的复苏,也有助于航空交通的增长,继而为我国引进更多国际游客。

此外,亚航和亚航X开辟了新的国际航线,再加上有四家新的航空公司开始飞抵大马(阿曼航空、Mahan航空、上海航空和Wings航空),飞抵大马的国际乘客也自然增加了。

除了国际航空公司,本地航空公司也出现增长的潜能,依据分析员收集的资料显示,我国四家航空公司-亚航(AirAsia,5099,主板贸服股)、亚航X、飞荧和马航(MAS,3786,主板贸服股),在2011年将会有25架新客机运抵,可增加300万至400万个座位。

这一批新的客机,将会为市场增加8%至10%的拓展空间。

燃油最大隐忧

分析员认为,国际航空公司,尤其是来自中东和印尼的航空公司,将会增加飞往我国的频率。这也是过去5年的趋势,分析员预计2011年的大马航空交通流量,将会增加10%至13%。

无论如何,燃油价格仍然为航空业的最大隐忧。燃油为亚航和马航的单一最大成本,占了这两家公司30%至40%的成本。(参考表1)

马航旗下的飞荧在11月8日宣布,将会引进喷射引擎的客机,以扩充其业务;这一个举动,马上启动了国内航空公司的削价战。

新的廉价航空终站-KLIA2,最新预计会延迟4个月完成,也就是在2012年4月完成。

尽管工程的延迟会抑制亚航和亚航X的成长,因为亚航营运产能已超越现有的廉价航空终站的容量;不过,大马机场(Airport,5014,主板贸服股)却有信心如期完成。

大马机场投资风险低

大马机场(Airport,5014,主板贸服股)提供了一个航空业很好的投资机会,因为该公司的风险总比航空公司来得低,而且该公司的现金股息也较平稳。

大马机场管理的吉隆坡国际机场(KLIA)即将成为一个“大”机场,根据业者的标准,大机场的定义为每年超过3000万的乘客量。在2010年的首9个月内,吉隆坡国际机场为世界成长第三快的国家,其成长率为17.3%。

紧接下来,吉隆坡国际机场的三大客户-马航,亚航以及亚航将会在2011年引进25架客机,并且在2012年引入27架新客机。

单单这些主要客户,就可为该公司带来8%至10%的容量增长。

合理价格RM7.12

马银行投资银行基于该公司10年的现金流预测以及8.35%的加权平均资金成本(WACC),给予该公司的合理价格为7.12令吉。

分析员还提到,与世界其他的业者比较,大马机场尚算便宜。

亚航展望正面

亚航(AirAsia,5099,主板贸服股)拥有区域间廉价航空间最大的舰队、最广泛的涵盖范围、四个主要市场以及最低单位成本。

马银行投资银行分析员继续对该股保持正面的看法,在新一批客机运抵后,该公司可进一步推动回酬率和减低单位成本。

分析员按照2011年本益比8.7倍,把亚航的目标价设在3.36令吉,这已比世界其他业者折价20%,以反映出更加竞争的环境。

累积马航好时机

马航(MAS,3786,主板贸服股)从破产边缘挣扎至世界备受肯定的5星级航空公司,是一段很长的路。当该公司的转型计划已接近尾声,新飞机、更好的机舱服务以及强化的市场,将促使新的马航崛起。

马银行投资银行对马航的前景保持乐观,并将该公司的目标价定在2.64令吉。分析员认为,这是累积该股的好时机。

Source/转贴/Extract/: 南洋商报
Publish date:28/01/11

马股兔年动静皆宜 股市回软进场时机

2011/01/28 11:38:23 AM
●南洋商报

(吉隆坡27日讯)即将来临的兔年,马股料将像兔子性格般温顺,但也会如野兔般快速蹦跳。分析员认为,目前马股回软,是进场挑选基本面强稳股项的好机会。

拉昔胡申分析员指出,目前马股已开始显现“野兔现象”。富时隆综合指数今年首11个交易日就已创下有史以来新高1574.49点,飙升了3.7%或55.58点。接下来的过去5个交易日,综指又回退了54.49点。

无论如何,股市目前的转手率介于38%至61%,还是比2010年的平均35%高,分析员因而认为,股市接下来仍然会活络;对于投资者而言,这是好事。

银行活力旺

此外,分析员也认为,并购活动今年仍会持续,尤其是油气及产业领域。

一些估值溢价的主导公司,将会以发股的方式收购较小业者。

戴乐集团(Dialog,7277,主板贸服股)、肯油企业(Kencana,5122,主板贸服股)、沙布拉石油(Sapcrest,8575,主板贸服股)、实达集团(SPSetia,8664,主板产业股)目前估值都处于溢价水平。

分析员也预估,股市也会有如野兔般“弹性十足”。

银行股因下半年可能升息以及呆账低,相信将充满活力。

电讯股高息

尽管电讯股不再迅速跃升,不过现金“实力”强,有能力派高股息。

产业股看俏

油气股经过一轮蹦跳,现在确有一些风险。

不过,一些支援服务相关业者仍可从国油本地业者合约中受惠。"

“野兔脑经”经常用来形容不固步自封的想法,分析员认为,现有产业公司就是如此,常出其不意土地买卖以及推出“旗舰性”工程。

建筑业也是另一个代表例子,这些公司常承接桥梁、道路以及其他基建工程;有时表现乖离基本面。

超越大市股有卖压

分析员相信,近期超越大市的股项目前仍然会面对压力,直至风险与回报率来到诱人水平为止。

无论如何,分析员强调,马股最近回软,成了进场承接基本面强稳股项的好时机。


Source/转贴/Extract/: 南洋商报
Publish date:28/01/11

國行不加息‧緊盯熱錢‧嚴管放貸‧控制家債

Created 01/28/2011 - 08:52

(吉隆坡27日訊)國家銀行今日正如市場所料把隔夜指標利率維持在現有的2.75%,但國行警告,為了避免宏觀經濟風險和金融失衡,未來將訴諸其他政策,諸如調整銀行法定儲備率(SRR)及更嚴謹的放貸管制措施。

或上調法定儲備金率

分析員在議息會議前已經預測,為了維持經濟成長動力,國行應該會暫時維持利率不變,但或會上調法定儲備金率,以抑制日益高漲,並且已經敲起警鐘的家庭債務,截至去年11月,大馬的家庭債達5千770億令吉,佔國內生產總值逾74%,是亞洲第二高。

國行今日的警告,顯示除了調動法定儲備金,國行也準備進一步管制銀行的放貸行動,以防家庭債失控。

國行在今年第一次的議息會議後發表文告指出,現有的貨幣政策立場是適時的,與現有的經濟成長及通膨展望評估一致,貨幣政策立場會繼續保持適中並支撐經濟成長。

再度對“熱錢”提警告

國行再度對“熱錢”提出警告,表示全球龐大游資的劇烈流竄,導致國內銀行體系游資泛濫,儘管銀行體系游資仍然在控制範圍,但在未來或訴諸額外的政策工具,如法定儲備金率,以及要求及嚴謹的放貸措施,以避免宏觀經濟與金融出現不平衡風險。

全球經濟區域表現出現迥然不同趨象,先進經濟成長溫和,和大部份新興經濟則取得強勁成長。

國行說,亞洲區域成長在海外需求疲軟下已趨緩,國內經濟活動為成長勢頭持續提供支撐力。全球資金四處竄動導致龐大游資流入新興區域,尤其是亞洲區域,進而對宏觀經濟及金融的穩定構成風險。

區域也受全球通膨壓力的影響,主要源自原產品及食品價格的漲升。

大馬經濟穩健成長

國內經濟方面,最新指標顯示,2010年末季的私人界活動保溫,惟海外需求受全球成長放緩的拖累,但預計大馬經濟在2011年仍將穩健成長,主要獲得堅穩內需的扶托。

私人消費力道也因就業市場回溫及收入成長穩定而獲得支撐力。國內導向領域展望看好,加上新成長領域的擴充,為私人投資活動持續提供支持力道。

國行認為,2010年的整體通膨回漲至2.2%水平,主要因食品及能源價格的漲升,在全球原產品及食品價格驅動下,未來數月的價格預計以溫和步伐走高。

國行評估顯示,通膨持續由供應因素拉動,目前尚未有證據顯示,過度需求造成價格壓力,因此重申,現有的利率水平符合現有的通膨情況。

委任三新助理總裁

另一方面,國行宣佈從2011年2月1日起,委任三名新助理總裁,即多納佐索嘉卡納登、阿布哈山阿沙里及馬朱尼山奧瑪,分別負責監督部門、董事部秘書及人力資源部門。


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Source/转贴/Extract/: biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:28/01/11

Positive outlook for local equity markets

The Star Online > Business

Friday January 28, 2011

Positive outlook for local equity markets

KUALA LUMPUR: Interest in the local equity market will likely continue as a combination of structural changes at the macroeconomic level, renewed business and consumer confidence, large-scale initial public offers and companies' regional diversification boost earnings.

Deutsche Bank's Asean/Malaysia equity research head Teoh Su-Yin said at a media briefing yesterday that despite the usual view of Malaysia being a defensive slow-growth market, changes at the macro level over the last few years had spurred interest in the country's equity market, which was the second-best performer in US dollar terms after Thailand in 2010.

She said the house had a target of 1,790 for the benchmark FBM KLCI by year-end while inflation was expected to be moderate at 2% to 3% with the possibility of up to 50 basis points of rate hikes in the benchmark overnight policy rates, which currently stood at 2.75%, in the second half of the year.

Teoh said the recent sell-off in Malaysia and markets in the Asean region was temporary owing to inflationary pressure bringing forward possible rate hikes while relatively positive data from the United States usually favoured the North Asian markets.

She said investors were also currently in a profit-taking mood as the markets had performed well last year from funds attracted to the region following the dimmer outlook in the developed markets.

“We may not see equity markets perform as strongly this year but we expect the recent jitters to subside as structurally Asean remains a growth story,” Teoh added.

She said plantation stocks, companies which had diversified into the region, property stocks and companies in the oil and gas industry were the house's picks this year.

The view of Malaysia as a “dull” market was increasingly redundant as local companies' diversification in the last five years had resulted in one-third of their earnings coming from abroad, she said.

“Malaysia gives investors the Asean footprint,” she said, citing bank, plantation and telecommunication companies' diversification over recent years.

The macroeconomic reforms taking place had also helped in spurring interest in the market and the spate of merger and acquisition activity from late last year was expected to continue this year, she said.

“The subsidy cuts have been a brave move from a political standpoint and has been done gently enough that consumers have not felt it.”

Teoh said the positive impact from the RM11.2bil in new contracts (which excluded the mass rapid transit project) awarded in the construction sector last year for both local and overseas firms would flow into this and next year.

She said commodity prices, which contributed to plantation companies' earnings last year, would continue to have a positive impact this year while local banks with stakes in Indonesian banks would also continue to see growth translated into earnings.

Source/转贴/Extract/: The Star Online
Publish date:28/01/11

OCBC: FCOT Heading the right direction with divestment of Cosmo Plaza

Frasers Commercial Trust
Maintain BUY
Current Price: S$0.17
Fair Value: S$0.18

Heading the right direction with divestment of Cosmo Plaza
1Q11 DPU of 0.25 S-cents. Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) announced 1Q11 gross revenue of S$29m, which declined 2.3% YoY and 1.1% QoQ. This was mainly attributed to the lower contribution from Cosmo Plaza as a result of the expiry of a significant tenancy in Aug 2010. Subsequently, FCOT successfully completed the divestment of Cosmo Plaza on 18 Jan 2011, Amount available for distribution to unitholders is S$7.9m, an increase of 6.7% from a year earlier, amounting to a 1Q11 DPU of 0.25 S-cents.

Successful Divestment of Cosmo Plaza. As part of capital recycling, FCOT has been trying to divest Cosmo Plaza since 3Q09, but found no suitable buyer. Cosmo Plaza has been affected by the economic slowdown in Japan, which saw its occupancy rate dipped from a peak of 100% in 2008 to a trough of 26% in 2010. FCOT made a gain on disposal of approximately S$7.28m from the transaction. We have assumed the sale proceeds will be used to pare down FCOT's debt, which matured mostly in 2012. We view this divestment favorably, as it will improve the overall quality of the portfolio and lower FCOT's gearing from 39.8% to slightly below 38%. Overall portfolio occupancy will also improve from 91.8% to above 96%.

Portfolio Performance. Both 55 Market Street (55MS) and KeyPoint saw a rise in occupancy rate in 1Q11, but gross revenue fell 13% QoQ for 55MS. We think that 55MS is possibly still experiencing negative rental reversions. According to our estimates, 55MS is likely to bottom-out of negative territory only in 2012-2013 (factoring in its lease expiry profile), while China Square Central (CSC) and Keypoint should turn positive much earlier. For the Australian properties, average occupancy rate remains healthy at 95.3%. Excluding Cosmo Plaza, the average occupancy rate for the Japan properties is 93.0%.

Maintain BUY. FCOT is currently trading at a PBR of 0.44x, which is lower than its historical PBR of 0.54x since listing. We believe that one reason could be a legacy issue; this being FCOT was formerly known as Allco Commercial REIT before it was bought over by FCL in 2008. Given the strong sponsor, capable manager and stable income, we feel that the high discount is unwarranted. As a first step, the manager is heading the right direction by divesting low income-producing assets. We anticipate further scope for the manager to grow income through asset enhancement initiatives and acquisitions. Maintain BUY with an unchanged fair value of S$0.18.

Source/转贴/Extract/: OCBC Investment Research
Publish date:28/01/11

视频:《中国经营者》曹仁超 股市没有“神”



Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:17/10/2010

曾渊沧:垃圾股暴升 市场突变疯狂

2011年01月12日09:21
我曾经告诉大家,我手上有一些垃圾股,是在去年买的,买入垃圾股的目的是利用垃圾股当成市场的指示灯,因为股市在牛市的后期,一些垃圾股会暴升,当然不是全部垃圾股会暴升,否则我就只买垃圾股好了。只要有相当数量的垃圾股暴升,就说明了市场已经疯狂了,没理性的。垃圾股并不是突然地在牛市末期一升而上,在牛市的中期,垃圾股股价已开始动,但是,因为垃圾股在熊市时也往往狂跌,累死很多人,蟹货也不少,因此,股价开始动的时候,不少手上仍持有该股的蟹民会抛售,导致股价下压。有经验的庄家也不会不停的扫货,而是一抽一放,今日抽高,股价进入 50大升幅榜,明日一放,股价又成为 50大跌幅榜名单,但是,一升一跌之间,如果你细心留意,股价是向上的,我之所以要买入,持有这些垃圾股,是因为如果我手上没有,我不会留意到每日这些大升大跌的垃圾股动向。

不应轻视平板电脑市场
现在,我手上的垃圾股中,有数只已开始动了,我不会告诉你我手上持有甚么垃圾股,你可以自己留意有哪一些股近日经常出现在 50大升幅榜及 50大跌幅榜。苹果电脑推出 iPad之后,全世界的电脑公司都很努力地研究平板电脑,也急着推出,联想集团( 992)领导层也说会开发平板电脑,但是,他们依然认为平板电脑将只占个人电脑一个相当小的市场比例,我认为联想领导层的这种想法是错误的,也是危险的,轻视平板电脑的市场是危险的,是有被淘汰出局的危险。想当年电子照相机刚刚面世时,美国柯达菲林的领导层就过度轻视电子照相机的市场,认为这只不过是儿童玩具,经过多年的发展,这个「儿童玩具」差不多完全取代菲林照相机,柯达也没落了,被淘汰了,富士菲林聪明一点,转懈惚鸬男幸怠?/P>

Source/转贴/Extract/: 腾讯财经
Publish date:12/01/11

Significant drop in property prices unlikely: analysts

SINGAPORE : The recent government cooling measures in Singapore's property market will bring down sales volume, but not to the extent of causing a significant fall in prices.

According to a report by DTZ Research, sales volume is expected to fall as short-term speculators will be weeded out by the hefty seller's stamp duty of up to 16 per cent within the first year of purchase.

However, the property consultancy said not all investors will withdraw from the market.

Some may find the 4 per cent stamp duty by the fourth year of sale to be surmountable and shift their focus to buying uncompleted units with completion dates three to four years later.

DTZ's Executive Director for Residential, Margaret Thean said landed homes, small apartments and high-end apartments will be less affected by the measures. That's because small units with their low price quantum will continue to attract investors with spare cash or singles wanting their own units.

Thean added that the 4-year seller's stamp duty will have little impact on landed homes as most purchase them for long-term owner-occupation.

Meanwhile, high-end apartments will likely continue to see foreign interest.

DTZ added that prices in 2011 are expected to be largely stable with a decline of not more than 5 per cent.

This is underpinned by economic growth, low interest rates, strong holding power of developers, the appreciation of the Singapore dollar and inflow of foreign purchasers due to the property market clampdown in mainland China and Hong Kong.

The property consultancy does not rule out the possibility of more government measures should demand remain at a high level after a period of cooling-off.

The report also noted other challenges in the form of a spike in the number of completed units in a few years' time as the government is putting out a record high amount of units through the public housing and government land sales programmes.

There is also uncertainty over the strength of recovery of the major western economies.

If they recover well, interest rates will move up and reduce the affordability of mortgage payments.

On the other hand, if they continue to languish, this will have an effect on the Singapore economy and optimism in the property market eventually.

With the residential market facing numerous challenges, DTZ said investors are likely to take the extra effort to identify opportunities in other property sectors and alternative investment products.

- CNA /ls
Source/转贴/Extract/:www.channelnewsasia.com
Publish date:27/01/11

REIT IPO galore on SGX this year

SINGAPORE : At least seven real-estate investment trusts (REITs) are expected to make their debut on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) this year.

And like last year's big-ticket IPOs of Global Logistic Properties and Mapletree Industrial Trust, analysts said the listings in 2011 could also include some heavyweights.

Experts said the seven upcoming REIT IPOs could together raise around S$4 billion.

REIT IPOs in the pipeline include that of Mapletree's commercial property arm that analysts said could take place in late March or early April.

The IPO could raise more than S$1 billion and will have an asset portfolio of about S$2.5 billion, analysts said.

Perennial Real Estate is also reportedly set to list a REIT consisting of retail malls in China.

According to analysts, the Perennial retail REIT listing will potentially raise close to S$1 billion.

Market watchers said the REIT market in Singapore still has room to grow.

George Lee, executive VP of Group Investment Banking at OCBC Bank said: "If you look at the FTSE sub-index, year-to-date it has risen by 11.6 per cent. Now compare that to the trough reached in March 2009, the index has risen by 149 per cent.

"Our view is that it has not over-shot, because notwithstanding the very strong performance of the REITS sector in the last couple of years, it is still 37 per cent off the peak reached in June of 2007."

A bullish equity market that could see the Straits Times Index (STI) hit 3,500 to 3,600 this year, and strong performance by last year's IPOs could encourage more trusts to list on the exchange in 2011, analysts said.

Tax benefits and ease of fundraising are the reasons why REITs are flocking to the SGX.

The income of listed REITs is tax-free in Singapore because they distribute 90 per cent of it to unit-holders. Properties sold to listed REITs are not subject to stamp duties either, experts said.

Other REIT IPOs this year may include a Shariah-compliant REIT of Middle East hospitality assets, three hospitality trusts from Singapore and Hong Kong, and an industrial trust.

"REITs are attractive investments to investors because they provide relatively stable yield. There's potential upside in stock prices and there is strong steady income for a very certain period - usually 3 to 5 years. So on this basis, they are attractive to investors," said Robson Lee, partner at Shooklin & Bok.

Analysts also expect REITs to be attractive investments this year because they are a good hedge against inflation.

- CNA /ls

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.channelnewsasia.com
Publish date:27/01/11

Asean stocks correction 'healthy, temporary'

By Presenna Nambiar
presenna@nstp.com.my
2011/01/28


DEUTSCHE Bank says the correction recently seen in Asean stock markets is healthy and only temporary, as there is no real structural change behind it.

Its managing director and head of research Malaysia and Asean, Teoh Su-Yin, said healthy profit-taking and accelerating inflationary pressure in Asean are partly the reasons for the correction.

She explained that relatively positive data points coming out of the US, which tends to favour the North Asian markets, have also encouraged flow of funds out from Asean into North Asia.

"We do think this is a temporary measure, and we continue to like the Asean market, but have to admit that we may not see such strong performances as we saw last year," Teoh told reporters after its Market Outlook 2011 briefing in Kuala Lumpur yesterday.

Last year, Asean countries such as Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines were the top four markets in terms of value in Asia.

In recent days, however, last years' standout performers Indonesia and the Philippines, have declined from recent highs, indicating a pending correction.

The house has set a 1,790-point target for the benchmark Kuala Lumpur Composite Index in 2011.

This will be supplemented by 22 per cent growth in core corporate earnings, or reported earnings of 26 per cent.

Growth is to be supported by a broad base of industries, mainly the palm oil companies, growth coming from Indonesia through banks like Maybank Bhd and CIMB Bhd, Petronas Chemicals Group Bhd and the property and construction sectors, which have seen a rise in margins.

Teoh said the view of Malaysia as a "dull" market is increasingly redundant, calling it a growth market.

"Malaysian companies offers an Asean footprint that you cannot find in the rest of Asean, with a third of its earnings coming from outside the country," she said.

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.btimes.com.my
Publish date:28/01/11

Thursday, January 27, 2011

Regional market strategy for 2011: still some way to go

We remain positive on Asian markets. The MSCI FExJ (Far East ex-Japan index) rose 19% in 2010 following sharp market re-ratings in 2009. Most of the 2010 gains took place in 2HFY10 as concerns over a global double-dip recession eased and foreign fund inflows into Asia gathered pace. Our leading indicators continue to point to low US double-dip recession risks while the resilience of the Asian recovery and undemanding valuations continue to provide upside for Asian equity markets. The macro positives highlighted below should sustain this upcycle, in our view.

Muted US double-dip recession risks.
We believe corporate profits, production and consumer sentiment are key to predicting the outlook for the US market. In previous episodes, a dip in new orders, accompanied by collapses in consumer sentiment and corporate profits, had led down markets. To date, these leading indicators indicate that corporate profits continue to grow with the ISM new orders index and US consumer sentiment holding up. Quantitative easing would also serve to buffer downside risks. We maintain our long-held view that risks of a US double-dip recession are muted.

Asia on the recovery track.
Asian real GDP forecasts had been upgraded several times in 2010. Past the sharp rebound in 2010, we continue to expect 5%-10% real GDP growth for our Sino-Asean markets in 2011. Our forecasts compare closely with the average real-growth trends seen over the 2003-07 cycle. Trade, consumer releveraging and improved investment sentiment should continue to support growth. Money supply growth has picked up, reflective of higher lending and consumer activities. Foreign reserves have further risen, providing a buffer against any currency and external-debt shocks.

Rate normalisation not a major negative for markets.
Since Jan 10, 2011 we have been putting forth the view that interest rate normalisation reflects an improved macro environment. We emphasise that the outlook for equity markets would mirror the experience of the 2004 US rate hike, not 1999. To recap, US rates were tightened in 1999 amid strong macro growth with hikes coming from high levels, thereby dragging down markets. In 2004, on the other hand, short-end rates were beginning to rise only from a low base and markets continued to soar after the rate hikes. The parallel with 2004 has been played out with the 19% gain for the MSCI FExJ in 2010 even as Asian rate normalisation kick-started. For the US, given lingering concerns over sub-trend growth, rate normalisation is expected to take place over a prolonged period, in a moderate fashion. In turn, foreign flows into Asia are likely to persist seeking more attractive yields and growth prospects.

Foreign funds flock to Asia.
According to EPFR, close to US$40 billion had fled Asian equity markets from late 2007 with the impending recession. Since the market bottomed in 1QFY09, more than double this amount has since returned. In this environment of stronger Asian growth prospects, fewer structural impediments juxtaposed with anaemic growth and low interest rates in the developed world, we expect foreign flows to continue to seek out Asian markets. This is particularly so given still undemanding valuations.

Valuations remain undemanding.
For most of Asean-4, the gap between earnings and bond yields remains above its mid-2008 trough despite having come down since the sharp 1Q09 market run-up. Malaysia is the only exception with this gap being close to trough. Meanwhile, forward P/Es have barely crossed the halfway mark of the previous 2003-07 cycle while on a price-to-book value (P/BV) basis, valuations are considerably lower than previous cycle’s peak. While the sharp multiple re-ratings of 2009 are unlikely to be repeated in the near term, still-attractive valuations compared with the 2003-07 cycle should continue to fuel markets.

Mid-cycle performances by stock type
Where are we in this cycle and what stock types are likely to outperform?
We believe we are merely crossing the middle of the cycle as we compare the 69% P/BV re-rating for the MSCI FExJ since March 2009 with the 133% P/BV expansion seen over2003-07. Interestingly, in the 1998-2000 cycle, the MSCI FExJ’s P/BV was similarly rerated by 130%.

We prefer to stick to the 2003-07 cycle for historical guidance. This is largely because the re-rating in 1998-2000 occurred over a much shorter time following a sharp upheaval in Asian currency and banking systems and reflected more structural changes than both the 2003-07 cycle and this one.

Dividing the 2003-07 P/BV re-rating into three equal stages and comparing them with the re-rating in this cycle thus far, we make the following observations on market cap, sector and stock-type performances for our universe.

On a market-cap basis:
1. In the 2003-07 early cycle, large-cap stocks underperformed mid and small caps while small caps outperformed. This has been borne out in the current cycle.

2. In the 2003-07 mid-cycle, large caps began to catch up and outperform while mid and small caps performed on par with the market. This time round, large caps have yet to catch up fully.

3. In the 2003-07 late cycle, large caps again outperformed.

On a sector average basis:
1. In the 2003-07 early cycle, basic resources, shipping, offshore and marine, industrial goods and construction were the main outperformers. In this early cycle, basic resources, offshore and marine, industrial goods again outperformed, along with auto and property.

2. In the 2003-07 mid-cycle, basic resources, offshore and marine, industrial goods continued to outperform along with plantations and travel and leisure. In this mid-cycle to date, travel and leisure, offshore and marine, consumer, auto and aviation have been the main outperformers.

3. In the 2003-07 late cycle, basic resources, construction, oil and gas, offshore and marine and shipping outperformed.

Finally, on a stock-type basis:
1. In the 2003-07 early cycle, cyclicals outperformed defensives. This has been borne out in this early cycle.

2. In the 2003-07 mid-cycle, cyclicals outperformed defensives more significantly. The outperformance is not as significant in this mid-cycle, to date.

3. In the 2003-07 late cycle, cyclicals continued to outperform defensives.
Extrapolating from the performances of the 2003-07 cycle, large caps and cyclical stocks are likely to outperform in the mid- and late-cycle stages. Currently, large caps make up 95% of our model portfolio while 85% of our model portfolio is skewed towards cyclicals on a market-cap basis.

Overweight the JCI and SET
We overweighted the JCI (Jakarta Composite Index) and FSSTI (Singapore’s Straits Times Index) in 2010. However, while the JCI soared on earnings resilience and outstanding macros, FSSTI underperformed regional markets on lower foreign fund inflows, an unsteady global outlook and property-tightening risks.

Overweight JCI. For 2011, we continue to overweight the JCI. We believe Indonesian structural improvements in fiscal and inflation management would help contain sharp increases in equity risk premiums while the earnings outlook remains robust, powered by strong consumer sentiment, strong commodity prices and robust economic activity. Foreign funds have also continued to flock in, lifting Indonesia’s share of foreign holdings in total EM Asia above its 2003-07 average, indicating the renewed attraction of Indonesia after losing favour during the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Valuation-wise, while Indonesia has been re-rated significantly, forward P/Es are just close to its 2003-07 mid-cycle levels while on a forward ROE to P/BV basis, its market is still some 73% above its previous cycle trough, indicating more upside to come. Near-term headwinds tend to spring from inflation and currency. For now, we do not see perturbing signs. Core inflation remains under control while the build-up of foreign reserves and an improved current account surplus should help buffer currency volatility.

Overweight SET. We move the SET (Stock Exchange of Thailand Index) to overweight (from underweight). SET has been trading at a discount to the rest of Asean-4 in part due to political uncertainties and in part, to high external exposure in trade and manufacturing. Foreign fund flows had also evaded the country previously. This seems to have reversed, as foreign funds stream into Thailand, lifting its share of foreign holdings in total emerging market Asia closer to 2003-07 levels in recent months. Meanwhile, the economy has gathered steam, with bank lending and money supply growth above 2003 cycle levels. The Thai market’s earnings outlook also appears solid with the JCI and the SET expected to post the strongest earnings growth in 2011. Valuation-wise, forward P/Es are close to the 2003-07 cycle mid-point while forward ROE to P/BV still has some 52% upside to its 2003-07 trough. Near-term headwinds stem from sharper-than-expected monetary tightening, politics and capital-control risks; although the latter are unlikely given the experience of 2006 when the imposition of capital controls dragged down the market by 10% in one day, forcing about a policy U-turn rather soon.

Neutral on FSSTI. We put the FSSTI on neutral (from overweight). The STI remains a dark horse that could pick up in performance once the global economy finds a firm footing, government measures on property speculation recede and foreign funds return. Near-term, foreign flows have yet to pick up strongly while its market continues to fluctuate with the global economic momentum given the economy’s high external exposure. A rising property market could also invite more administrative intervention, putting a sharper dampener on the market. The FSSTI’s forward P/E is 10% below its 2003-07 mid-point while there is a 43% more to go on an ROE to P/BV basis until the 2003-07 trough. We will be watching this market closely.

Underweight KLCI. We move the KLCI to underweight (from neutral). The KLCI managed to outperform the FSSTI and HSI in 2010. As its earnings outlook remains positive, valuations have run up. The KLCI is slightly above its 2003-07 mid-cycle on a forward P/E basis and only 17% from its last cycle trough by forward ROE to P/BV, below the gap for the other three Asean markets. We deem valuations fair and the potential for outperformance below that of its regional peers.

Focus on value and returns on equity
To recap, recent market weakness notwithstanding, we remain positive on Asian markets, believing we are only midway through this cycle. Large caps and cyclicals outperformed in the mid- to late-cycle stages of 2003-07 and this could yet play out again. Macro positives, in our view, include low US double-dip recession risks, Asia’s macro strength, continued foreign fund inflows and undemanding valuations against the 2003-07 mid-cycle and peak levels. Interest rate normalisation is unlikely to roil markets much mid-term with market outcomes akin to 2004, not 1999, we believe, although any sharper-than-expected monetary tightening could provide some near-term headwinds. Rather than the sharp multiple re-rating of 2009, we expect the re-rating in this phase of the cycle to be more modest.

Quantitative easing not as impressive as it sounds. We caution that one should not bank on US quantitative easing to drive spectacular market re-ratings, unlike what had happened in 2009. US money supply growth remains slow and below trend, a sharp expansion in the monetary base notwithstanding, simply because the employment, housing and consumer markets remain soft. Repeated quantitative easing could shield the economy from a double dip but developed market growth is likely to be anaemic for a while with rates remaining low for a prolonged period.

Focus on value and returns on equity. We expect the focus in this phase of the cycle to be value and returns on equity. The macro outlook has improved with the return of trade, consumer re-leveraging and improved sentiment in our Asian economies. The earnings outlook for our Sino-Asean markets remains attractive with 12%-20% growth predicted for 2011-12. The JCI and SET are expected to post the strongest earnings growth in this period.

ROE outlook strongest for consumer, commodities, auto and offshore & marine. On a regional basis, the ROE outlook is strongest for the consumer, commodities, auto, and offshore and marine sectors. Not surprising given consumer re-leveraging, commodity price uptrends, low costs of capital and stronger wealth effects in the region. As trade and service sectors improve, wages move up and developed world growth finds a firm footing, these cyclical sectors should continue to boast strong ROEs.

Our top-3 sector picks - based on our ROE to P/BV model - are financials, commodities, and offshore and marine. We continue to base our stock picks on strong returns on equity and good value. Value-wise, we choose our top sector picks for 2011 using our market adjusted ROE to P/BV model. We like commodities, financials and

offshore and marine. These are sectors with a stronger ROE outlook and which remain relatively inexpensive. At the same time, several of these sectors had performed well in the mid- to late cycles of 2003-07 as laid out in the earlier sections with commodities, industrial goods, offshore & marine, construction, oil and gas, and construction managing to outperform in the mid-late stages of the 2003-07 upcycle. On the whole, the financial, commodities and offshore & marine sectors make up 86% of our model portfolio in terms of market cap.

To date, our model portfolio has outperformed the benchmark by 14% with over 39% gains since its September 2009 inception. For our top five stock picks, we recommend ITMG, Gudang Garam, Krung Thai Bank, NOL and AirAsia based on our ROE to P/BV model and robust company outlook.


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, January 27, 2011.


Source/转贴/Extract/: www.theedgemalaysia.com
Publish date:27/01/11

KE: 2011 Small Cap Picks

Pulling seven rabbits out of the hat
Seven ideas for another year of good fortune. We pick these companies because their valuations have caught our eyes. Pay less for more is how we identify our top picks; essentially these companies have delivered more but their share prices are still below the levels seen when they accomplished less. 2011 will be a year where cheap money feeds growth and this will only fuel the chances of greater success for these companies. Our selection has something for everyone, regardless of whether you are seeking value, yield or growth.

Superb value for money
Our two value stocks have one thing in common – both derive their value from the assets they have on the ground. RH Petrogas and Gallant Venture are trading at huge discounts of 30‐70% to our conservative valuations. If you can afford to wait for the huge value still buried deep underground to be uncovered, we reckon you will reap outsized returns. Gallant’s much soughtafter landbank in Bintan, for example, is held at cost of just $3 psm but is currently being sold at $110 psm on average!

They yield to nobody
Yield‐wise, we can think of none better to recommend than Starhill Global REIT and Boustead Singapore. Starhill is gaining prominence as the owner of prime commercial assets in the region, with 13 properties in Asia. It offers a compelling 6.5% yield. Boustead has been a quiet but smooth operator, and under the radar for most investors. But having built up a huge cash pile, we think it can afford to reward shareholders with a special payout. Even its ordinary dividend yield is attractive at 4.5%. Both stocks trade at a 15-20% discount to our fair valuations.

To grow is to be glorious
The growth companies within our selection are in businesses as different as night and day. China Animal Healthcare provides vaccination drugs for domestic meat animals in China, Super Group is a market leader in convenience foods such as 3‐in‐1 coffee mixes in the region, and CWT has ambitions to build a logistics empire as global as any other. However, all three have one thing in common – the potential for high earnings growth but are not yet priced as such. This therefore opens the way for ahead‐of‐thecurve investors to make outsized returns.

Pay less for more
Higher probability of success at lower cost
Companies hit a roadblock when the global financial crisis struck in 2008. Stock prices took a heavy beating and waves of earnings disappointments and execution hiccups soon followed. Some stocks with great stories became “forgotten”. However, 2010 saw these companies getting back on track with the prevailing low interest rates providing the fuel. Against this backdrop, it would appear unjustifiable for their share prices to remain below the levels seen before the onset of the financial crisis.

In our opinion, seven such power‐packed companies stand out, having achieved milestones never before accomplished. In fact, there is something for everyone in our selection, regardless of whether you are seeking value, yield or growth.

Superb value for money
Our two value stocks have one thing in common – both derive their value from the assets they have on the ground. Energy play RH Petrogas (RHP) and land play Gallant Venture are trading at huge discounts of 30-70% to our conservative valuations. If you can afford to wait for the huge value still buried deep underground to be uncovered, we reckon you will reap outsized returns. Gallant’s much sought‐after landbank in Bintan, for example, is held at cost of just $3 psm but is currently being sold at $110 psm on average!

RH Petrogas – energy play with vital assets above and below ground
RHP is an energy play that began its foray with the acquisition of an oilfield concession in Northeast China. It subsequently acquired, from Temasek Holdings, a Singapore company called Orchard Energy that has an oilfield concession in West Belida, Indonesia. RHP then wasted no time in buying a third oilfield concession in West Papua, Indonesia. As it used to be an electronics contract manufacturer with no prior track record in oil extraction, the ace up its sleeve now is the inheritance of Orchard Energy’s capable management team, led by 30‐year industry veteran Dr Tony Tan. It is also backed by the Rimbunan Hijau (RH) Group, one of the largest and strongest conglomerates in Malaysia. Catalysts include the likelihood of more oilfield asset injections by the RH Group. While we believe RHP will issue more new equity in order to finance its development plans, any new issue is likely to be backed by Temasek, which has an option to subscribe to the new equity.

Gallant Venture – entering a virtuous cycle of growth
Back in 2007, Gallant traded as high as $1.56, or 3x its book value, as the market viewed with wild enthusiasm the development potential of its valuable landbank in Lagoi Bay, Bintan. However, the stock was severely hit during the financial crisis, tumbling to as low as six cents, as buyers held back and development plans were put on hold for lack of financing. It was a big blow but it did not deter Gallant from continuing to invest in Lagoi Bay by laying down the infrastructures and building the landscape to increase the attractiveness of its land parcels for future sales. By 2010, its investments bore fruit. Land sales resumed, more land deals were secured, and the construction of Lagoi Beach Village, a central component of its Lagoi Bay township, started. In addition, Landmarks Berhad will resume the development of its Water Resort City soon. However, Gallant’s share price is still trading below the 2007 peak. Currently trading at 19% discount to its book value, the stock is grossly undervalued because a large chunk of the company’s assets is its landbank in Bintan, which is held at a cost and only a fraction of the prevailing market price.

They yield to nobody
Yield‐wise, we can think of none better to recommend than Starhill Global REIT and Boustead Singapore. StarHill is gaining prominence as the owner of prime commercial assets in the region, with 13 properties in Singapore, China, Japan, Australia and Malaysia. It offers a compelling 6.5% yield. Boustead has been a quiet but smooth operator, and under the radar for most investors. But having built up a huge cash pile with low gearing, we think it can afford to reward shareholders with a special payout. Even its ordinary dividend yield is attractive at 4.5%. Both stocks trade at a 15-20% discount to our fair valuations.

Starhill Global REIT – Still in the “bargain” bin
Like all the other S-REITs, Starhill’s stock price took a beating during the credit crisis in 2009 and recovered in tandem with the global economy. But unlike most of them which have re‐rated close to their book value, with some even trading at a huge premium, Starhill’s steep discount of 30% is hard to ignore. It has undergone a leadership change in the past two years and a stronger sponsor, YTL Corp, is currently at the helm. Two major acquisitions in 2010 have raised its portfolio value by 37% and enhanced its geographical diversification. Compared to 2007, Starhill is in a much better shape but its forward yield and discount to book paint a different picture. Granted, the market has become more discerning in the light of the fragile eurozone economy and the risks posed by inflation, but we believe Asia’s rising consumerism and booming tourism will support retail REITs that have high‐quality prime commercial portfolios. Starhill is one such example and its valuation is still undemanding.

Boustead Singapore – quality and diversity galore
Boustead is easily overlooked by investors who could not appreciate the diversity of its businesses. While other companies were grappling with shrinking profits during the financial crisis, it was quietly delivering. The company has since emerged unscathed, bigger and stronger to boot! A significant milestone achieved in FY Mar10 was the turnaround of its water business. We see no reason for its share price to trade at the current depressed level. In fact, there seem to be multiple opportunities for Boustead to surprise us in 2011. Higher‐than‐expected contract wins, valueadding investments with its huge cash hoard or even a special payout to shareholders could be positive catalysts for the share price. But even without these positive surprises, valuation is still undemanding.

To grow is to be glorious
The growth companies within our selection are in businesses as different as night and day. China Animal Healthcare provides vaccination drugs for domestic meat animals in China, Super Group is a market leader in convenience foods such as 3‐in‐1 coffee mixes in the region with its biggest market in Thailand, and CWT has ambitions to build a logistics empire as global as any other. However, all three have one thing in common – the potential for high earnings growth but are not yet priced as such. This therefore opens the way for ahead‐of‐the‐curve investors to make supernormal returns. In addition, at least one stock – Super Group – might attract new investors that could spark a further re‐rating.

China Animal Healthcare – the healing touch
Rising meat consumption, along with higher animal drug penetration and the strong likelihood of industry consolidation, is expected to keep China’s animal drug sector boiling over. In our view, this sector holds tremendous promise for many years to come and CAH is well‐positioned to ride this rising trend. The company has set its sights on capturing a bigger market share through selling a wider range of products to retailers and expanding its current pool of sales and technical personnel. It will also invest more in research and development to stay ahead of competition. The improving prospects notwithstanding, we believe its share price has yet to catch up with its pre‐crisis valuations.

CWT – expanding logistics empire
Back in 2007 when its share price was at the peak, CWT was aggressively expanding its warehousing capacity and gearing up its balance sheet to match. Fast forward to today, substantial sale‐leaseback gains from these buildings sit snugly in the coffers and the balance sheet is healthier than ever. This war chest will help fund CWT’s fast‐expanding global logistics empire. The financial crisis has also thrown open opportunities to acquire businesses and talent it has been tracking for years, especially in Europe and Africa. Interestingly, the Loi family, who in addition to holding a substantial stake in CWT and also manages the company, has been aggressively buying shares from the open market, even at a post-crisis high. We regard this move as a clear sign of the family’s quiet confidence in the business prospects.

Super Group – the best is yet to be
Inspired by share price‐friendly actions in the last year, such as a dividend increase, a successful TDR listing, disposal of non‐core assets that were weighing down the balance sheet and the growing maturity of a new complementary business, Super has started to catch the eye of the market. As a result, valuations have crept up steadily from the lows of 2010. However, we argue for more upside as the next two years’ valuations are still a long way off from the peak years of 2007-08, especially now that the group has a dynamite new complementary business in ingredients and is beefing up its investor outreach to markets such as Taiwan where F&B sector valuations are richer. In addition, Super’s shareholding structure is looking very interesting, as silent shareholder Yeo Hiap Seng (which owns 11.7%) is sitting on an attractive return of over 40% and its only representative has resigned from the board. Any increase in free float should lubricate the way for a further rerating.

SouSource/转贴/Extract/: Kim Eng Research
Publish date:27/01/11

KE: Starhill Global REIT – Still in the “bargain” bin

They yield to nobody

Yield‐wise, we can think of none better to recommend than Starhill Global REIT and Boustead Singapore. StarHill is gaining prominence as the owner of prime commercial assets in the region, with 13 properties in Singapore, China, Japan, Australia and Malaysia. It offers a compelling 6.5% yield. Boustead has been a quiet but smooth operator, and under the radar for most investors. But having built up a huge cash pile with low gearing, we think it can afford to reward shareholders with a special payout. Even its ordinary dividend yield is attractive at 4.5%. Both stocks trade at a 15-20% discount to our fair valuations.



Starhill Global REIT – Still in the “bargain” bin
Like all the other S-REITs, Starhill’s stock price took a beating during the credit crisis in 2009 and recovered in tandem with the global economy. But unlike most of them which have re‐rated close to their book value, with some even trading at a huge premium, Starhill’s steep discount of 30% is hard to ignore. It has undergone a leadership change in the past two years and a stronger sponsor, YTL Corp, is currently at the helm. Two major acquisitions in 2010 have raised its portfolio value by 37% and enhanced its geographical diversification. Compared to 2007, Starhill is in a much better shape but its forward yield and discount to book paint a different picture. Granted, the market has become more discerning in the light of the fragile eurozone economy and the risks posed by inflation, but we believe Asia’s rising consumerism and booming tourism will support retail REITs that have high‐quality prime commercial portfolios. Starhill is one such example and its valuation is still undemanding.

Source/转贴/Extract/: Kim Eng Research
Publish date:27/01/11

告別淡靜走向波動‧德意志銀行:馬股轉為成長市場

Created 01/27/2011 - 18:35
(吉隆坡27日訊)德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)大馬及東盟研究主管兼董事經理張素賢認為,近期馬股的調整僅屬暫時性,未來走勢仍受看好,不過大馬已從過去的“抗跌性”市場,轉向“成長市場”,不再與“沉靜”劃上等號,接下來的波動或會比較大。

馬股過去6天因為外資賣壓,回吐年初的漲幅,對此,張素賢認為這是正常的波動,她相信綜指年杪可達到1790點目標。
健康調整為暫時性

她說:“東盟處於長期性的成長軌道上,最近的賣壓影響不大,相信是健康性的調整,且屬暫時性的。雖然今年東盟市場的表現可能不如2010年,不過依然看漲。”

張素賢表示,由於近期亞洲區域的通膨逐步揚升、原產品及食品價格飆漲,加上美國的經濟數據樂觀,才導致一些資金開始從東盟外流至亞洲北部國家,股市的套利現象即刻湧現。

她說,馬股除了轉型為“成長市場”,受到唱好的其他原因還包括大型計劃的推出、重量級公司如國油化學(PCHEM, 5183, 主板工業產品組)及海事重工(MHB, 5186, 主板貿服組)登場、企業及消費信心增強(零售銷售料按年揚升10%至12%)、併購活動狂吹、原產品價格飆升及股票市場持續進化(如大型股更多元化)。

外資未顯著流進

談到外資流入大馬市場的走勢,她坦言,儘管富時(FTSE)已將大馬從“次級新興市場”上調至“先進新興市場”地位,不過外資並沒有顯著流進。

“這相信是因為基金市場仍以摩指(MSCI)為指標,這將對股市起正面效益。”

張素賢說,目前外資在馬股的參與度已重回至2007年的水平,年初至今寫下8億3千萬美元(約25億2千萬令吉)。
低流通量非吸資障礙

她提到,低流通量不再是影響馬股吸引外資的障礙,外資反而比較著重馬股可取得多大成長,包括各項經濟轉型計劃能否如期完成。

“相對來說,鄰國印尼的股市流通量更低,但卻可以吸引龐大的外資。”

她補充,國內很多具抗跌性的股項,包括產業投資信托,都可捎來誘人的週息率。

張素賢預計今年馬股的本益比將企於14.8倍,雖然不廉宜,但屬於“成長市場”,其中全年每股盈利料寫下26%成長(預計當中的32%來自岸外市場),在東盟市場中僅次於印尼的26.7%。

“至於馬股的股本回酬及週息率則預計各取得16.3%及3.4%。”

大馬全年可成長4至5%

另外,受到強勁的原產品帶動,加上在各項建築計劃的催化下,張素賢預計大馬2011年全年可取得4至5%經濟成長。
不過,她指出,大馬經濟仍將面對出口走軟及財政赤字的挑戰,或將拖累整體的經濟增長。

她表示,近日來馬幣不斷升值已打擊國內的出口,但鑒於大馬與東盟的貿易頻密,加上東盟國家的貨幣也與馬幣同步升值,抵銷當中的部份衝擊。

“不過,一旦產品出口至歐美國家,仍無法獲得倖免。”

張素賢認為,馬幣並沒有獲得高估,反而與東盟貨幣的兌換率上還出現少許的低估。

以領域計,她看好上半年種植業將“跑贏大市”並持穩,但下半年料將逐漸回落,而其他受唱好的領域還包括建築及產業。
“建築及產業領域的賺幅已從低谷中回揚,加上市場的新產業推介也提高。”

針對接下來的隔夜政策利率(OPR)走勢,張素賢不預期近期國家銀行有任何升息動作,直到下半年,料全年升息幅度達50基點,不過一切仍要胥視通膨的走勢。

“我們相信今年的通膨將介於2至3%,大馬的物價相對受到抑制,通膨的嚴重性不如週邊國家。”


Source/转贴/Extract/: biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:27/01/11

半杯水

Created 01/27/2011 - 14:03
當前,全球經濟動蕩不均,東西市場呈現兩極化,是好是壞、是福是禍,就如一個盛有“半杯水”的杯子,主要是角度與態度問題。

全球市場充滿機會,也陷阱處處。
若是回歸根本,以目前局勢,那些擁有現金、商品及創造能力國家,將最有可能脫穎而出,成為全球市場的贏家。
全球市場落在兩個極端情況,使各自政府可能採完全不同甚至分歧的政策,這將為市場帶來予盾與衝突及不明朗,惟同時也可能促成投資的良機。

新興經濟體的中產階段迅速成長,使全球原產商品及能源等的價格,將持續走高、變得更昂貴,這是商機也是挑戰。
以商品的金屬領域為例,隨著中國及印尼兩大超級市場的崛起,量化寬鬆政策的大量游資,推動商品特別是金屬品的需求持續走高。

近期3個月的錫期貨每公噸就漲至2萬6千850美元,去年已經揚升59%;鎳漲幅達34%、銅上漲30%、鋁上漲11%;鉛上揚4.9%,使這類金屬品生產國賺得盤滿砵滿。

金屬資源豐富的內蒙古,就是個擁有發展潛能的很好例子。其股市去年漲逾倍,今年繼續受到看好料還有揚升空間。反觀大馬若管理得當,它得天獨厚的天然資源及人力資源,將有助於進一步提昇它在全球市場的競爭力。

在當前動蕩不靖市場,擁有實力或是現金在手的市場或政府,將擁有更大應對突發風險或危機的能力,甚至在危機中攫取涌現的商業機會。反觀負債纍纍的國家,很大程度上,將落入任人宰割的劣勢。

同時擁有創造創新能力市場,有機會繼續在市場佔有一席位,避免被人淘汱的命運。而美國就憑著這點優勢,尚有與競爭對手討價還價的實力。

根據國際大行渣打集團預測,中國、印度、印尼、中東及數個非洲國家經濟的崛起,預料為全球市場產生很大商機,使全球經濟持續走高,這可能會持續至少一代人的時光。

隨著這些經濟體的崛起,將推動全球貿易活動,高度的投資、迅速城市化及科技的創新等,都是推動全球經濟的催化劑。
目前的全球經濟規模為逾62兆美元,比10年前增加了一倍,超過最新一輪的全球經濟不景氣前的水平,特別是過去兩年的量化寬鬆政策及新興市場迅速發展的推波助瀾。

經濟學家的估計,預料至2030年時,全球經濟規模將會成長至308兆美元,若是扣除通膨在內,實質上也有129兆美元的規模。

箇中的商業機會將難以言喻。特別是全球經濟市場分額將出現大風吹,從西方吹向東方。惟主要前題,是依循目前的經濟趨勢發展前進。要此趨勢保持不變,其實就是個最大的不明朗因素。

預期未來20年裡,中國將佔全球成長的20%,並於2020年成為全球最大的經濟體。不過,它的人均收入將仍然比美國低,預料僅佔後者的一半,使它尚有很大的發展及成長空間。

目前全球市場風險,包括朝韓半島的地緣政治緊張局勢、全球資市場開始過於管制、西方市場的銀行或政府債務危機重現、亞洲通膨泡沫以及全球性的貿易保護主義抬頭等,都是全球市場的潛在風險。

歐美市場持續走弱,深受債台高築、通縮及減少負債問題的糾纏。全球這種利與弊、機會與危機並存的時代,是禍是福,是空是滿,很大程度,胥視如何看待“半杯水”的態度與角度而定。


Source/转贴/Extract/:biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:27/01/11

CRCT distribution inches up in Q4

Business Times - 27 Jan 2011
CRCT distribution inches up in Q4

By UMA SHANKARI

INCOME to be distributed by CapitaRetail China Trust (CRCT), a CapitaLand unit, for the fourth quarter of 2010 inched up 2 per cent to $12.97 million - from $12.72 million in Q4 2009 - as it recorded higher rental revenue from its malls.

Distribution per unit (DPU) for the October-December quarter rose 1.5 per cent to 2.07 cents from 2.04 cents a year earlier.

CRCT, which owns eight retail mall properties in China, reported better distribution even as net property income fell year-on-year. This is because for 2009, there was a net retention of income. But for 2010, it is paying out all of its distributable income.

The trust also said its performance was affected by the stronger Singapore dollar, which appreciated against the yuan in 2010.

In renminbi terms, gross revenue for Q4 2010 grew 6.3 per cent year-on- year to 153.5 million yuan (S$29.8 million) due to occupancy and rental growth in some of its malls following asset enhancement works. Net property income fell 1.4 per cent in renminbi terms to about 97 million yuan mainly due to increases in marketing and utility expenses, and higher provision for staff-related costs.

But in Sing dollar terms, CRCT's performance was worse. Gross revenue rose 1.6 per cent y-o-y to reach $30.2 million in Q4 2010. Net property income fell 6.1 per cent to $19 million.

For the whole of 2010, CRCT's total income to be distributed rose 3.1 per cent to $52.2 million. Total DPU for 2010 is 8.36 cents, an increase of about 2.7 per cent over 2009.

As at end-December 2010, CRCT's total borrowing was $402 million, while its gearing stood at 31.1 per cent.

Looking ahead, CRCT said it remains optimistic about its growth prospects in China. 'With the rapid emergence of China's middle class, increasing income levels and continuing urbanisation, consumer spending is expected to remain robust,' the trust said in a statement. 'China's strong economic growth momentum, especially when contrasted with the lacklustre growth prospects in the developed markets, will continue to entice retailers to further expand into China. CRCT, with its geographically diversified portfolio of eight malls, is well positioned to tap into China's growing consumer market.'

CRCT shares gained three cents to close at $1.27 yesterday.


Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:27/01/11

FCOT Q1 net property income slips 2.4%

Business Times - 27 Jan 2011
FCOT Q1 net property income slips 2.4%

Lower contribution from Cosmo Plaza cited for fall

By LINETTE LIM

FRASERS Commercial Trust's (FCOT) net property income slipped 2.4 per cent year-on-year to $22.95 million for the first quarter ended Dec 31, 2010.

Gross revenue fell 2.3 per cent to $28.98 million.

Trust manager Frasers Centrepoint Asset Management (Commercial) Ltd attributed this to 'lower contribution from Cosmo Plaza as a result of the expiry of a significant tenancy in August 2010'.

It added: 'If the financial results for Cosmo Plaza were to be excluded, the net property income for the financial quarter would be comparable to that of last year on the same basis.'

FCOT had successfully completed the divestment of Cosmo Plaza - located in Osaka, Japan - on Jan 18.

'The divestment of Cosmo Plaza would improve the overall quality of the portfolio and create additional debt headroom for FCOT to enlarge its existing portfolio via future acquisitions,' said Low Chee Wah, chief executive of the trust's manager.

Despite the dent in net property income, total distributable income rose 4.1 per cent to $12.64 million.

This was due to 'an absence of loss from realisation of forward contract incurred in the prior year'.

Distribution per unit (DPU) for the period rose 4.2 per cent to 0.25 cents.

There is no distribution payment this quarter as FCOT distributes semi-annually.

The counter gained 0.5 cents yesterday to close at 17.5 cents.


Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:27/01/11

Proposed rights issue sends Spice i2i reeling

Business Times - 27 Jan 2011
HOT STOCK
Proposed rights issue sends Spice i2i reeling
By LYNN KAN

TO the chagrin of some of its shareholders, the stock of Spice i2i dived three cents or a whopping 26 per cent to close at 8.5 cents yesterday on news that it has proposed a rights issue barely five months after another.

The latest proposed one-for-one renounceable rights issue of up to 2.74 billion new shares is priced at 5.5 cents apiece. It aims to raise up to about $146.24 million in net proceeds.

BT reader Denis Distant pointed out that Spice i2i's rights issues were heavily discounted and becoming too frequent, resulting in a big slide in its stock price.

Spice i2i's latest issue was priced at a 52.2 per cent discount to the closing price of 11.5 cents on Jan 21, and a 35.3 per cent discount to the theoretical ex-rights price (TERP) of 8.5 cents per share.

In August 2010, it issued over 1.37 billion rights shares at 10 cents apiece, which Spice i2i noted was 'oversubscribed'.

However, other market watchers say Spice i2i's price movement is not unusual, as most stocks after rights issuance tend towards their TERP.

Ezra Holdings saw a similar price decline the day after an announced rights issuance in August last year.

Its stocks sank to $1.68, close to the company's stated TERP of $1.67, from its previous closing of $1.77.

Spice i2i's management told BT that the latest rights issue will not go towards funding its most recent acquisition, Indonesia's Selular Group with a price tag of US$175 million.

Instead, Selular Group will be paid for with proceeds raised from Spice i2i's August 2010's rights issue.

The expected proceeds are earmarked to buy over the remaining 35 per cent of CSL, a Malaysian mobile phone service company, which Spice i2i had bought a 65 per cent stake in last year. Over and above that, Spice i2i indicated it might use the money to 'acquire other companies comprised in the CSL Group'.

It added that the capital will also be used 'for potential acquisitions in the near future and to be in a position to take advantage of such opportunities'.


Source/转贴/Extract/:www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:27/01/11

MIDF: Fiscal policy sharing Fed's burden

Fiscal policy sharing Fed's burden
The tone of US Fed's latest policy statement denotes that neither the most recent pick-up in economic growth nor the continued surge in commodity prices have had much of an impact on officials, Worried by the still elevated unemployment rate and low core inflation, the Fed intends to continue with the purchase US$600bn of Treasury securities by mid-June CY11 in order to provide the big push to stimulate the economy.

We found the Fed statement to be fairly more upbeat: The Fed acknowlcdg8d the 8conomic expansion is taking place and that consumption picked up in late CY10. At the same time, they pointed out that the current rate of economic expansion is in sufficient to lower unemployment significantly. primarily being myriad by factors that can constrain spending in CY11. We have projected real consumption will gain by 3.9% annualised in 4QCY10 and a strong growth in 1QCY11 benefitting from the reduction in payroll taxes that will boost disposable income from 1 Jan•CY11.

Inflation expectation is still stable despite rising commodity prices: The Fed also acknowledged that commodity prices have risen. However, they stressed carefully that inflation expectation is still stable and that the und8rlying inflation is still weak. Energy prices arc still well 011 the highs reached in CY08. but the prices of many agricultural commodities have now surpassed their earlier peaks. We expect the pick-up in food price inflation will drive headline inflation close to 1.9% in CY11 while core inflation will remain slightly below 1.0%.

Fiscal stimulus has provided some breathing space for the Fed for now. In our view, the passing of the latest fiscal stimulus package of USS858bn provided some breathing space for the Fed to boost demand via monetary policy. We expect Fed will complete its QE2 as scheduled and will not extend into another QE immediately upon completing since we envisage the economic growth to look pretty healthy in mid-CY11 as well as the QE2 will not have any discernable downward impact on Treasury yields. On the contrary. should the economic growth slows towards the end of CY11 as the fiscal stimulus starts to fade, the Fed can be persuaded to restart QE3 either late CY11 or in CY12 for which we are placing an extremely low probability.

Source/转贴/Extract/: MIDF Research
Publish date:27/01/11

CapitaLand’s COMEBACK

Shares in the property juggernaut performed poorly in the past year. But things might start looking up in 2011, if China comes back in favour. There’s more than one way for investors to play the group’s recovery, though.

Leedon Heights, the leafy lane off Farrer Road dotted with bungalows, has been abuzz with activity since last month. Potential property buyers arriving in luxury cars have been visiting the area to size up a brand-new development taking shape there. Called d’Leedon, the 1,715-unit residential project, located on land once occupied by the Farrer Court HUDC flats, promises to transform the area. For one thing, d’Leedon’s eye-catching and modern design is the work of Pritzker Architecture Prize winner Zaha Hadid. For another, the 99-year leasehold development is being marketed at prices that are a relative bargain to freehold properties in the area.

In fact, the property had been making headlines even before anyone knew what it would be called, or look like. CapitaLand, which is leading the development of d’Leedon, bought the Farrer Court site in 2007, together with partners Hotel Properties Ltd, Wachovia Development Corp (now a unit of Wells Fargo) and a fund managed by Morgan Stanley’s real-estate division. The $1.33 billion price tag made it the largest residential property deal that year.

While higher prices were being paid on a psf basis, the scale of the project was a coming of-age of sorts for CapitaLand.

In the preceding seven years, CapitaLand had grown fast by deftly securitising its assets through property funds and real estate investment trusts (REITs) and using the recycled capital to take on projects across the region, especially in China. By 2007, CapitaLand had four REITs in its stable, some $18 billion in assets under management, and a market capitalisation that was nudging $20 billion. That year, its CEO Liew Mun Leong was awarded a total pay package of $21.6 million, which included a bonus of $20.5 million. To keep moving the needle, the property juggernaut needed to keep taking on bigger and bigger projects. As it happened, 2007 also marked the peak of the global credit boom and the world was on the brink of a massive credit crunch that would spark the worst recession in a generation.

Even as the securitisation market went into a deep freeze, the company was making plans to not only survive but also take advantage of the crash. In February 2009, after its shares had slumped, CapitaLand went to its share-holders with a $1.84 billion rights issue. The rights shares were priced at $1.30 each, a 45% discount to their already depressed market price, leaving investors little choice but to take up their entitlements, or face significant dilution. Two REITs within its stable  CapitaMall Trust and CapitaCommercial Trust  also raised a total of $2.05 billion via similarly discounted rights issues at around the same time.

Meanwhile, CapitaLand’s Australian unit Australand raised some A$461 million in a rights issue in July 2008, and a further A$475 million in July 2009. Then, in November 2009, CapitaLand went even further with the $2.8 billion IPO of CapitaMalls Asia, its retail property division, and arguably the most promising of its business units.

It wasn’t long before Asia began to recover from the economic slump. As asset markets began to rebound through 2009 and 2010, the CapitaLand group began to flex its financial muscles while other property groups were still hobbled by the crash. Notably, it acquired Orient Overseas Development Ltd (OODL) in February 2010 for the equivalent of $3.1 billion, its largest invest-ment so far. OODL owned a portfolio of seven sites in Shanghai, Kunshan and Tianjin, comprising projects spanning 1.48 million sq m of gross floor area. Half of these developments are residential, with the rest being offices, shopping malls and hotels.

Meanwhile, CapitaLand began getting its existing projects off the ground too, capitalising on low interest rates that are spurring demand from genuine homebuyers and speculators alike. In Beijing, over the Christmas weekend, the company launched and sold 61% of the units in Phase Two of Beaufort, comprising one tower of 220 apartments. When completed, Beaufort will have four residential towers with 1,027 high-end apartments in a 58,800 sq m site. In Ho Chi Minh City, CapitaLand signed a conditional 70:30 joint-venture agreement with No Va Land Investment Group Corp last October to develop a 9,000 sq m site for the mass market at a cost of $40 million. CapitaLand already has a development pipeline of 4,500 homes in Vietnam.

Back in Singapore, CapitaLand managed to sell all 650 units released for The Interlace, a 1,040-unit development on the former Gillman Heights site. The company plans to sell the remaining 390 units this year. Then, there is d’Leedon, where the initial launch of 250 units priced between $1,460 and $1,800 psf drew many interested buyers.

For the nine months ended Sept 30, 2010, CapitaLand reported a sharp rise in earnings to $751.1 million, including revaluation gains. Excluding the impact of revaluations and impairments, earnings were up 20% to $542.4 million on a 6% improvement in revenue to $2.24 billion. The company attributed its stronger revenue to contributions from development projects in Singapore and Vietnam, as well as increased revenue from Australia. Divestment gains from the listing of CapitaMalls Malaysia Trust, the divestment of Raffles City Ningbo to the Raffles City China Fund, and the sale of Sichuan Zhixin CapitaLand, Starhub Centre and Robinson Point also contributed to its profits in the first nine months of last year.

The story of CapitaLand’s recovery hasn’t been all that positive for holders of its shares, though. In the past 12 months, even as the pace of property sales across Asia was buoyant, shares in CapitaLand actually sank 8%. Shares in its retail property arm CapitaMalls Asia are down 23% over the same period, and are now trading 9% below their IPO price. By comparison, the STI is up 11% in the past 12 months and the FTSE Real Estate Index is up 9%. Shares in City Developments and Overseas Union Enterprise are up 9% and 85% respectively.



Why has CapitaLand underperformed?
Vikrant Pandey, an analyst at UOB KayHian, says part of the problem with CapitaLand is that a large swathe of its most promising assets is now in separately listed entities. That gives investors the ability to buy them directly instead of investing in shares in CapitaLand. The group may have made the problem worse by spinning off CapitaMalls Asia in its search for capital two years ago. Investors who want exposure to the group’s shopping malls can now choose between CapitaMall Trust, CapitaRetail China Trust and CapitaMalls Asia.

On the other hand, investors who want to bet on an office property boom could buy CapitaCommercial Trust, while those who want to ride the growth of the hospitality sector could buy Ascott Residence Trust.

“Now, you would only buy CapitaLand for mainland China and Singapore residential property,” Pandey says. “And, there is some Ascott element left,” he adds, referring to the group’s serviced residence division, which it took private in 2008. Pandey has a “buy” recommendation on Ascott Residential Trust and is “neutral” on CapitaMall Trust as well as CapitaCommercial Trust. Yet, CapitaLand is his top “sell” recommendation within the whole property sector.

Another problem that CapitaLand faces is the growing nervousness concerning inflation and soaring property prices across Asia, which is prompting governments to impose some of the toughest bank-lending curbs and property-related taxes in decades. Earlier this month, Singapore raised the stamp duty on sellers of property to as much as 16%, while cutting the margin of lending for second properties to a maximum of 60%.

In China, a barrage of measures is reportedly being considered in major cities. For instance, Shanghai and Chongqing are said to be looking at implementing a property tax. And, the People’s Bank of China has been steadily raising the reserve ratios for banks to restrict credit. Last year, the ratio was raised six times by 3%, to 19%. This year, it has been pushed up further to 19.5%. Chinese banks are no longer allowed to lend for third mortgages. As a result, Pandey is betting that sales of residential properties in China are going to slow down. “The tightening measures remain an overhang,” he says.

Where does all this leave CapitaLand’s investors? Did the company make a fundamental misstep by pursuing equity raisings in the wake of the credit crunch instead of sitting tight and waiting for the recovery? Are its new projects going to be hit by tougher anti-specu-lation measures? Which of CapitaLand’s listed units offers investors the best risk-return balance now?

Silver lining to tough measures
More than a week after Singapore’s most recent and punitive slate of anti-speculation measures, analysts and property developers are beginning to see the silver lining in the dark clouds overhead. The double-digit price gains in some segments of the local residential property market over the past couple of years couldn’t have lasted. By acting decisively, policymakers might have actually made the upcycle more sustainable. And, the early indications are that the new measures haven’t had too severe an impact on property investment sentiment.

“We are supportive of the Singapore government’s measures to ensure prices rise at sustainable levels, in line with economic fundamentals,” CapitaLand said in a statement on Jan 13. “We plan to proceed with business as usual and to launch 1,700 homes in Singapore this year.”

CapitaLand appears to be similarly optimistic about its prospects in China. “The Chinese government has ensured a vibrant property market through a series of measures to curb excessive speculation and ensure market sustainability,” says Jason Leow, CEO of CapitaLand China Holdings, in response to questions from The Edge Singapore.


“CapitaLand’s balanced portfolio of properties in the different sectors have benefited from this.” Leow emphasises that CapitaLand isn’t exposed to only residential property projects in China. “It is also in office buildings, shopping malls, serviced residences and integrated developments like the ones under our Raffles City brand,” he says.

Leow also says CapitaLand’s acquisition of OODL in China is already delivering returns. “Within a year, CapitaLand China has seen a positive contribution from its February 2010 acquisition of OODL.” That’s largely because most of OODL’s developments already have planning and land use approval while some sites have construction permits in place. That has enabled the group to “achieve a quick time-to-market for the sites”, Leow adds.

At the same time, the response from property buyers has been positive so far. Among the projects under OODL is The Pinnacle in Shanghai, where 60% of the 242 units released have been sold at an average of RMB30,000 ($5,874) psm. At The Metropolis in Kunshan, almost all the 500 units have been sold at an average of RMB11,000 psm. Projects from the OODL portfolio that will be launched this year include Paragon, a high-end residential project in Shanghai; a commercial development in Tianjin; and another residential site in Shanghai. According to CapitaLand officials, the monetising of the OODL portfolio has met the company’s internal rate of return targets of 12% to 15%, with profit margins of 15% to 20%.

CapitaLand China sold more than 2,900 units in 13 projects last year. This year, it is targeting to sell 4,000 homes. Additionally, CapitaLand announced it had set up CapitaValue Homes, which will focus on low-cost housing in China and Vietnam. It is partnering a Chinese stateowned enterprise to invest in a site in Wuhan, which will have a GFA of over 200,000 sq m, The CapitaLand group is also exposed to the spending power of China’s urban population, which is recovering smartly after the global recession. Its subsidiary CapitaMalls Asia owns and manages some 53 malls in the country, eight of which are held under its REIT CapitaRetail China Trust.

Lim Beng Chee, CEO of CapitaMalls Asia, sees some of the malls it owns maturing in the year ahead, making them suitable for divestment into CapitaRetail China Trust. “A mall needs two to three years to build and two to three years to stabilise,” he explains, noting that CapitaMalls Asia started acquiring and building malls in China only in 2005. “The first batch is almost there, but we have to look at the structure and the market before we make the decision of whether to divest,” he adds, referring to the initial three to four malls that are up and running.

Nomura sees retail sales in China growing at more than 20% a year in 2011 and 2012, underpinning the performance of well-managed shopping malls. “The key to such growth  in both existing and newly established stores  will remain, in our view, mall selection, with tenants increasingly focused on mall location and management rather than simply the trade off with occupancy costs,” Nomura states in a report dated Jan 11.

Nevertheless, the spectre of accelerating inflation makes Asia a risky environment for property developers such as CapitaLand. Policymakers in Singapore and China are indicating that even-tougher anti-speculation measures may be introduced if their property markets do not cool down sufficiently. On the other hand, the experience of Vietnam, where CapitaLand is targeting to eventually have 10% of its assets, is an indication of problems that could plague Asian nations that fail to act decisively. With a rising current account deficit, galloping inflation and collapsing state-owned companies such as Vinashin, Vietnam’s currency has been sinking. Last month, Standard and Poor’s cut the country’s sovereign debt rating by one rung to BB-. That’s three levels below investment grade and on a par with Bangladesh and Mongolia. Moody’s and Fitch had already cut the country’s ratings earlier in 2010.

Just over a year ago, China too was thought to be facing significant overheating risks by some analysts and investors. Among them was billionaire hedge fund manager Jim Chanos, who declared the country to be on a “tread-mill to hell”. The underperformance of China’s stock markets is one reason that shares in CapitaMalls Asia have not done as well as investors hoped, says CEO Lim. “Given that we are so exposed to China, people perceived us as a Shanghai stock. That’s one of the factors [for our underperformance].” Yet, he insists that CapitaMalls Asia and the CapitaLand group are in the right place at the right time with their China exposure. “I believe we’re doing the right thing and the share price will pick up along the way,” he says.

Some research houses are beginning to agree with him. According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BoAML), CapitaLand had performed poorly over the past year largely because of its exposure to China and the derating of CapitaMalls Asia. But it sees a turnaround unfolding in 2011 for China’s devel-opers, which should help spur a re-rating of CapitaMalls Asia as well as CapitaLand. Bo-AML has a “buy” recommendation on CapitaMalls Asia and a price target of $2.21. It has also upgraded CapitaLand to a “buy” this month, with a price target of $4.65. Nomura has turned similarly bullish on CapitaLand, rating the stock a “buy”, with a price target of $4.37.

REITs are lower-risk
Investors who don’t have the stomach to bet on a turnaround in China might be better off with one of the REITs in CapitaLand’s stable. Not only do they offer steady yields, but the recovering market for commercial mortgage-backed securities could broaden their options in financing acquisitions this year, analysts say. The largest of the local REITs is CapitaMall Trust, which owns shopping malls in Singapore. The trust grew its distributable income to $294.8 million for FY2010, up 4.5% from a year ago. This was CapitaMall Trust’s seventh consecutive gain in distributable income and translates into a distribution per unit (DPU) of 9.24 cents, giving a yield of 4.86%. The trust is trading at a 24% premium to its book value of $1.53 per share. Some of the lift in distributable income in 2010 came from its acquisition of Clarke Quay, which houses clubs, bars and restaurants.

“Tourism came through very strongly,” says Simon Ho, CEO of CapitaMall Trust’s manager. Over the next three years, he sees DPUs rising further, driven by asset-enhancement programmes at Raffles City Singapore and Atrium@Orchard; and the opening of JCube, the former Jurong Entertainment Centre, which will include an Olympic-sized skating rink. Then, there is the possibility of CapitaMall Trust eventually acquiring ION Orchard. “Is ION of interest to CapitaMall Trust? Of course it is,” Ho remarks.

While CapitaMall Trust’s yields are relatively low compared with other REITs in the market, its size and solid track record give it an edge in raising capital cheaply for growth. CLSA rates CapitaMall Trust as the top pick among the local REITs, with a price target of $2.25.

A more cyclically oriented REIT play at the moment is CapitaCommercial Trust, which owns office properties. Rentals for offices bottomed in the middle of last year and have started to rise. That is positive for the capital values of CapitaCommercial Trust’s underlying assets. It sold two Grade-B office buildings last year. That cut its debt-to-asset gearing to just 27%, while reducing its distributable income by only 0.4% for the year. The upturn in portfolio valuation could drive its gearing lower, allowing CapitaCommercial Trust the flexibility of raising more than $1.2 billion should an attractive acquisition come along.

The big challenge for CapitaCommercial Trust is that recent office property transactions have taken place at cap rates of just 3%. That could make it tough for any acquisition to be immediately yield-accretive. Lynette Leong, CEO of CapitaCommercial Trust’s manager, is unfazed, though. One advantage the REIT has is its heft, which gives it an edge on acquisitions of larger properties. Asia Square Phase 1, for instance, spans 1.3 million sq ft and could be valued at $3 billion, based on $2,400 psf. “There won’t be a lot of competition at that price,” Leong points out.

At its last-traded price of $1.52, CapitaCommercial Trust is trading at a yield of 5.15%, and marginally above its book value of $1.47. OCBC Investment Research has a “buy” rating on the REIT and price target of $1.61.

Finally, another option that investors have is simply to buy a property being developed by CapitaLand, such as the d’Leedon. The company announced that 93% of the initial 250 units launched last month have been sold and it plans to release another 750 units for sale this year. Located in a well-established neighbourhood, close to an upcoming MRT station on the Circle Line and priced at as little as $1,460 psf for a unit on a low floor, it’s as good a choice as any to ride the recovery of CapitaLand’s fortunes in the coming year.

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.theedgesingapore.com
Publish date:24/01/11
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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