Saturday, January 22, 2011

葉威明:名副其實金兔年 屬水木行業有錢撈

January 22, 2011 17:40

農曆庚寅年來到尾聲,回顧這一年,你過的是“虎年”還是“苦年”?
然而,2011年2月4日立春日后便踏入辛卯兔年,五行屬性的各行各業興衰又再易位,哪個領域能主今朝?

大家期許“兔氣揚眉”之際,且從風水術數的玄學角度和證券分析的科學角度,全面掌握“金兔年”趨勢好讓“虎盡甘來”,做足準備“宏兔大展”!


兔年大利包括包括航空、物流、旅遊的驛馬行業。
2011是“辛卯”年,辛卯來自“干支”曆法,被應用于八字命理,2月4日立春日下午12時24分就會正式踏入辛卯兔年。

天干的“辛”屬金,地支的“卯”是生肖的兔子,今年是名副其實的“金兔年”。

但隨著流年不同,運勢也大不同,玄學家兼玄明館創辦人及主導師葉威明(Joey Yap)接受《中國報》專訪指出,全世界的運勢和各國發展,皆可從立春日八字和流年飛星來推斷

他說,立春日八字(見圖)四柱為辛卯年、庚寅月、庚寅日、壬午時,年柱、月柱和日柱皆是“金剋木”,象是“人人有錢撈”,回揚的經濟表現會優于去年。

大利驛馬行業

“立春八字中,月柱及日柱皆自坐也是財星的‘驛馬財’,將大利驛馬行業,包括航空、物流、旅遊、酒店及速銷消費品(FMCG)領域。”

“金木相戰”必有不如,若“無水通關”就會出問題,讓以上屬水領域會有豐收及發展。

至于驛馬星掌管旅行外出變動運勢,古時驛站為傳遞官方文件的機關,驛馬為傳遞文書的交通工具,所以驛馬代表動態。

葉威明說,八字地支連見3“木”,所以和木業相關的發展也算蓬勃。

他補充,這些行業包括文化、出版、教育、傢俱、裝修、環保、髮型屋、醫藥、健康食品等。


屬水領域--航空、物流、旅遊、酒店及速銷消費品
屬木領域--文化、出版、教育、傢俱、裝修、環保、髮型屋、醫藥、健康食品

股市篇

股市劫財見好就收

外企料相繼到馬股掛牌,但股市劫財,投資者宜見好就收。
富馬隆綜指在12年前(1999年)的兔年,創下39%全年增幅,所以即將來臨的兔年,更令投資者期待。

葉威明說,2011金兔年有正財星坐鎮,卻也有劫財星,股民必須慎防,需收手時便必須收手,不能眷戀!

他說,今年走“驛馬星”,恰好“四祿星”飛向同時代表文明的坤宮,意即外來資金湧現,必會帶動股市走高。

“或有很多外資企業前來大馬掛牌,馬股自是熱鬧無比,但其實立春八字顯示嚴重的劫財格局,象征股市劫財,投資者最好見好就收。”

他解釋,日柱“庚金”對質性相同的月柱“庚金”稱為“比肩”,但對不同質性的年柱“辛金”,卻是“劫財”格局,股市看似漲勢如虹,其實卻劫財,而且危機隨時出現,股民要小心。


馬股市東亞第二強
馬股踏入2011年便大發“虎威”,成為開年以來東亞國家中表現第二強的股市。

富馬隆綜指“五連漲”連刷歷史新高,5個交易日大漲53.3點或3.5%,更在1月7日寫下1572.21點歷史閉市紀錄,獲券商看好短期攀上1600點。

僑豐投資研究看好,馬股在“3E”,即企業獲利(Earnings)、大選(Election)和海外寬鬆政策(Easing)的支撐下,今年將繼續綻光芒,富馬隆綜指上半年可達1648點。

今年企業獲利將保持成長動力,加上提早舉行全國大選的傳言言之鑿鑿,相信來自基建發展計劃的消息將持續,使市場繼續期待新合約的頒發。

日本承諾注資600億美元(約1835億令吉)救經濟、美國6000億美元(約1兆8350億令吉)的第二輪量化寬鬆政策(QE2)等寬鬆政策,造成全球游資四溢,是第三個利好股市的“E”。

但今年需留神的是,或將出現的“黑天鵝”效應,包括戰爭、政治和通貨膨脹,惟這些因素不會衝擊馬股長期成長。


房產篇

房價漲勢減緩勿盲目進場

房產漲勢將受壓,投資者勿盲目進場。
房地產走過行情高漲的2010年,兔年能否繼續“前兔似錦”呢?

葉威明指出,經歷去年的顛峰狀態后,隨著兔年八字明顯木重剋土,意味房價漲勢將面臨阻力。

“市民不要抱著投機心態,眼看他人去年大賺,今年繼而心急進場,畢竟政府必會繼續出招按壓房價。”

他補充,但若市民準備自住則沒太大問題,投資卻適合保守一點。

提到吉位時,他說:“八白、九紫吉星分別飛向西北和正西方,兩者皆是財星位置,若睡房、工作或大門都在這兩個位子,全年就是財運亨通。”

他說,就算是置產,這兩個地區的買賣會比較暢旺,房價升幅較大。


房產需求旺盛看漲至2013年
房地產領域去年的表現猶如“異軍突起”,房價過熱聲不斷,更引發當局出手“打房”,惟券商估計,去年的熱鬧景象將延續到今年。

國家銀行早在去年11月,便向欲購買第三間房屋的購屋者,落實70%房屋貸款頂限(LTV Ratio),遏制房地產投機行為,更為火熱的房產領域降溫。

券商認為,政府去年已宣佈實行IFRIC 15條例和限制房貸頂限措施,考慮到接受度問題,相信今年大選前不會落實其他新例,避免市場消化不良。

政府陸續宣佈的公共交通工程,料減輕公眾負擔、改善房價,對領域也是喜訊。

再者,以目前國內年輕族群比例來看,市場對房產的需求依然旺盛,領域上漲表現料至少維持至2012年至2013年。


正東兔年不利方位
葉威明提醒,據流年飛星圖,正東是兔年最不好的方位,因為“五黃煞”到區,若房間落在這個位子,財運自會欠佳,最好不要動土。

他曾解釋,流年飛星圖的每個星都代表吉凶,只要善用方位,確是趨吉避凶的方法。

“每年只需知道煞位在哪里,避免任何類型的裝修或在這些位置動土便可,不是非改不可,甚至無需擺放任何物品。”


屬雞犯太歲凡事要謹慎
辛卯兔年,由于卯酉相衝,屬雞年衝太歲之余,一般來說凡姓名屬“木”,或出生年份尾數是4或5生肖屬木的龍、兔人士,皆在犯沖之列。

葉威明透露,金木相剋嚴重,一般來說沖犯的姓名包括陳、林、李、葉、楊、柳、芝、華、逸、朱、邵、超或草字頭的名字。

“犯沖人士容易出現神魂不定、遺失東西、破財、血光及無妄之災,輕則受筋骨之傷,重卻傷及頭頸,所以凡事必須謹慎小心。”

他指出,除了屬雞的人士,其他生肖都沒有太大問題,只是屬鼠的朋友或有桃花問題。


立春節氣之首開啟新一年
立春是二十四節氣之一,“立”是“開始”的意思,立春就是春季的開始,每年2月4日或5日太陽到達黃經315度時為立春。

中國玄學數理和節氣息息相關,二十四節氣以“立春”為節氣之首,立春是新一年的開始,流年九宮飛星各方位的吉凶也由此隨之轉變。

2011年2月4日下午12時24分起,兔年正式轉生肖運程,而非正月初一(2月3日)就踏入兔年。

舉例說,若你有小寶寶在當天下午12時24分之前出生,生肖還是屬虎。

立春在過年后稱為“年里春”,立春在過年之前稱是“年外春”。


人人有錢撈 各領域都不差
問到哪個行業發展較不理想時,葉威明透露,既然今年屬于“人人有錢撈”的一年,所以其他領域表現都不會差。

“再者,代表政府的月柱‘庚寅’自坐財星,意味其他東南亞國家將和我國極力合作,進一步促進經濟發展,財庫收入有望增加,並會努力紓解民困。”

但他強調,月柱和日柱皆是“庚金”,卦象乃斧頭,斧頭就必須砍木,寓意“力不到不為財”,建議普羅大眾切勿抱著依賴政府的心態。

“畢竟今年‘金木相戰’,寓意仁義兩難全,加上我國屬雞犯太步,要處理的麻煩問題已不少,市民求人不如求己,千萬不要想坐享其成。”


劫財星出現 愛買難守財
由于劫財星出現,葉威明提醒,這也意味著國人喜愛購物消費、追求物質,或面對守財難的問題。

經濟分析師認為,國人“愛買”的習性料可繼續成為我國經濟成長的引擎,減少依賴海外陰晴不定的需求,但代價或是越滾越大的家庭債務。

根據邊際消費傾向(Marginal Propensity to Consume),國人收入每調升一次,消費就更高。

這意即每1令吉薪資調漲,國人將消費53仙,與印尼48仙、韓國47仙及中國34仙比較,相對更高。

Source/转贴/Extract/: 中國報
Publish date:22/01/11

財經小品:貪婪是最大危機

Created 01/22/2011 - 13:30

馬股2011開年走勢凌厲,讓身邊朋友在開年第一週賺了不少。

結果,在那短短一週內,朋友們對股市的樂觀情緒飄飄然跨過安全線,溫和投資策略剎那間凶狠如狼,股市被看成肥肉,可以任他們自由掠食,根本沒想到風險這回事。

第二週,股市出現些許回調,但朋友們投資情緒不僅有增無減,反而認定大市仍在上漲,出現回調是買進良機,於是大幅使用證券行提供的短期融資服務,自認可藉槓桿原理讓財富暴增。

第三週,套利大幅湧現,透過短期融資買進的股票紛紛狂挫,原來寫意的股市變得荊棘滿佈,朋友們四處碰釘,加上對進出場時機拿捏不純熟,虧損持續擴大,除了回吐早前所賺的,本金也被侵蝕。

兩週前意氣風發、志高氣昂的朋友們,如今已變成情緒低迷的一群病狼了。

投資並非不好,但喪失理智的投資,就好比亂投捕鼠器(資金),運氣好偶爾抓到一兩隻老鼠,也可能投中自己養的貓,或自己的腳,到頭來白忙一場,還搞得傷痕滿身,投資的最終目的,可不是這樣。

即使再聰明的投資者,也不能精準預測股市走向,所以要事先考量自己所能承擔的風險,加上考量各種股票基本面和前景資訊後,再投資也不遲。

貪婪只會帶來毀滅,我相信,這句話的受用範圍,沒有疆界,尤其在股市;放任貪婪本性發酵不理,無須金融海嘯或其他風暴造訪,危機亦如影隨形。


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Source/转贴/Extract/:biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:22/01/11

DXN Share buy back 21.01.2011




Source/转贴/Extract/: Bursa malaysia
Publish date:21/01/11

升息效應 REITs長線利多 逢低買

2011年 01月22日 蘋果日報
【林巧雁╱台北報導】全球景氣復甦,歐美房市築底回溫,根據歷史經驗,升息趨勢下,投資REITs(Real Estate Investment Trusts,不動產投資信託)基金長線利多,市場預期亞洲不動產還有5~20%上漲空間、租金有10~20%漲幅,專家建議可趁此逢低布局。

富蘭克林證券投顧經理梁珮羚指出,REITs屬於高股利產品,當景氣好轉,步入升息循環又有通膨題材時,隨房價與租金價揚,REITs自然成為具有保值概念投資商品。

具保值概念受歡迎
富邦全球不動產基金經理人官湘玲表示,已開發國家持續維持量化寬鬆貨幣政策,包括美、日、歐等國,可望釋出大量資金,國際資金持續追逐保值與高收益投資商品,貴金屬、高收益債券及房地產都是投資目標。

亞洲受到經濟成長推高通膨壓力,負利率效應愈趨嚴重,部分資金湧入不動產市場追求較高報酬,預期2011年亞洲區域不動產價格有5~20%的上漲空間、租金也有10~20%的漲幅。

梁珮羚表示,北美去年和今年的房產表現不錯,呈現築底回溫趨勢,雖然房價下跌,但租金依然上漲,亞洲則處於升息階段,抑制通膨,房產處於高檔,此時的確可以考慮投資REITs。

不過,她提醒,亞洲政府持續打房政策,租金是否能大漲有其風險。美國房市上半年仍下跌,但全年表現預期可超越2006年,為正成長。

此外,歐美各國經濟落底,就業市場漸回溫,美國新屋開工與建築許可續降,新增供給有限,富邦投信預期2011年美國商用不動產空置率將明顯回落,租金可望止跌回升,推升REITs股利上揚,吸引資金流入。

增高股利收益個股
歷史經驗顯示,REITs走勢通常領先聯邦基準利率,即使在升息階段,REITs走勢仍維持上漲。美國上次在2004年中升息,美國REITs指數在2003年中就已落底反彈,一直到升息末端。

富邦預期這次美國升息時程將在2011年底至2012年初啟動,美國REITs指數自2009年初即已持續上漲至今,在預期REITs走勢通常領先升息前提下,預料美國REITs指數仍將維持上漲態勢,後勢可期。

官湘玲說,今年已開發國家與亞洲國家經濟成長不同調,操作上也有所不同。REITs配置中,建議增加高股利收益個股為配置,如美國抵押型(mortgage)REITs;在地產開發商中,可著眼於股價淨值比偏低個股,如香港地產商等。


Source/转贴/Extract/: 蘋果日報
Publish date:21/01/11

王瑞杰:若情况需要 政府须以更严苛措施为楼市降温

新加坡金融管理局局长王瑞杰指出,最近政府的房市降温措施,是为了降低越来越高的风险,若情况需要,政府必须愿意以越来越严苛的措施来应对。

  王瑞杰强调:“这些降温措施不能取代银行自己的风险评估程序。在借贷时,银行仍要继续保持谨慎。这包括在作出信贷评估时,将利率可能上涨的因素计算在内,而不是假设目前的低利率会无限期地延续下去。”

  他指出,最近有许多针对应该用什么政策来解决资产泡沫问题的辩论。而他的看法是,政府需要多种工具来应对这个课题的不同方面,而这些工具必须是简单,容易了解的。更重要的是,有关当局的动机必须清楚地传达,这些工具才会有效。此外,决策者也必须显示打击风险日增的决心。


  王瑞杰说:“在本质上,这也就是金融管理局和新加坡其他政府机构在最近推出新的房市降温措施时所做的。”

  本月13日,金管局、国内税务局和国家发展部,通过缩紧贷款顶限和调高卖方印花税的方式,为火热的房市降温。


  王瑞杰指出,亚洲许多地方都面对房地产泡沫化问题,不完全是因目前市场上游资充足,也因为许多投资者相信,在一个增长的经济体中,房地产市场只能朝上发展。

  他说:“许多人已忘记了在1997/98年亚洲金融危机时,区域房市是如何垮下来的。”

  亚洲经济增长也导致资金涌入,亚洲货币可能升值,也吸引更多资金流入这个区域。去年,流入亚洲债券市场的金额就创下新高。然而,大量资金流入也可能引发更大的通货膨胀压力,导致资产价格的泡沫形成。王瑞杰说:“尽管资金流入快速,我们也必须做好它快速流出的准备。”

  他昨天是在法国里尔—尼斯高等商学院(Ecole De Hautes Etudes Commerciales du Nord,或称Edhec Business School)旗下风险学院的亚洲中心开幕仪式上致辞时,发表上述谈话。

  王瑞杰昨天也提到,金管局将强制所有本地银行和大保险机构,必须在今年的常年股东大会之后,成立一个风险管理委员会。

银行董事须受风险管理训练

  他说,为确保委员会成员拥有相关技能执行任务,从今年开始,本地银行的董事会所有成员也须强制接受风险管理的相关训练。

  对此,华侨银行昨晚发声明指出,该银行自2004年8月31日开始,就已成立了风险管理委员会。

  王瑞杰是于去年4月首次提到,为了加强我国金融人才的专业能力,金管局正在与业界共同探讨举办全国考试,测试本地银行的客户关系经理服务顾客的专业能力。



Source/转贴/Extract/: 《联合早报》
Publish date:22/01/11

侨丰:马股回调 投资者宜逢低承接

2011/01/22 11:35:08 AM
●南洋商报


(吉隆坡21日讯)尽管马股的元月效应(January Effect)步入第二周交易日逐渐减弱趋势,农历新年涨潮在今年可能难再现,但券商分析认为,马股回调之际,是逢低承接股票时机。

2月企业宣布业绩

侨丰研究联席董事吴保云向本报表示,预计农历新年涨潮不会出现,因为过去记录显示涨潮并不明显。

虽然预料马股迎来兔年前涨潮不再,然而,他指出,侨丰研究本月份依然是股市买家,并将持续购股至2月。

展望未来1个月,吴保云仍看好马股整体走势,因此,认为股市目前调整期是低价进场的好时机。

他说:“支撑马股未来的利好因素,主要是2月份企业业绩宣布的季节,料一些公司的净利将持续取得增长。”

看好4类股项

吴保云建议,投资者可考虑银行、消费、石油与天然气和建筑领域股项。

受亚洲区域连续两天暴跌的影响,马股周四休市一天后甫开市即出现“补跌”情况,闭市时,富时隆综指报1547.43点,挫19.08点或1.22%。

截至今日,富时隆综指在本月内已涨1.88%或28.52点,去年12月30日以1518.91点封关。

仍然有上涨潜能 首选消费 商品 产业

然而,相比今年开市首周,马股更是勇往直前,盘中一度飙升至1576.95历史新高水平,5个交易日更是日日突破新高闭市。

涨幅回吐至1.88%

短短一周内,富时隆综指已攀高53.3点或3.51%,惟经过一周的上涨后,马股在第二周即出现喘气现象,至今的涨幅已回吐至1.88%。

另一方面,益资利投资研究分析员在一份报告指出,马股仍然具有上涨的潜能,特别是那些价值已被低估,但股价表现仍落后大市的股项。

其中,该分析员首选领域的股项包括消费(料从通胀率和购买能力提高中受惠)、商品(受惠于经济增长以及通膨对冲)和产业(资产再膨胀)。

Source/转贴/Extract/: 南洋商报
Publish date:22/01/11

What's in store for SGX?

This week, Singapore Exchange (SGX) welcomed its first listing for the year -- China-based Zhongmin Baihui Retail Group -- and saw the registration of prospectuses for two other offerings: Malaysia Smelting Corp (MSC) and Sri Trang Agro-Industry. Both those companies are expected to list before the month’s end and together with XMH Holdings, which is scheduled to commence trading on Wednesday next week, that makes four listings in January alone -- not a bad start to the year.

The smallest, Zhongmin Baihui, which is a mall operator based in Fujian, raised $7.3 million in net proceeds. XMH, a distributor of diesel engines for tugs and barges, is raising $18.9 million. Tin producer MSC is looking to raise about $45 million. Only Sri Trang’s IPO is sizeable. The natural rubber processor and exporter hopes to raise up to $448 million. (See the New Listings section in this week’s issue of The Edge Singapore for more on what each of these companies is doing.)

But there could be more good news for SGX investors this year. This week, Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing announced his plans to spin off Hutchison Whampoa’s existing and future deep-water container port businesses in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau into a business trust called Hutchison Port Holdings Trust which the market expects could raise at least US$6 billion ($7.7 billion). If the IPO becomes reality, it will dwarf SingTel’s more than $4 billion offering, which has held the record since 1993.

And it was only in October when the market saw the $3-billion listing of Global Logistic Properties, Singapore’s second-biggest IPO since SingTel’s float.

For SGX, an increase in listing activity is more than welcome. Earlier in the week, the company released its results for 2QFY2011 ended Dec 31. Net profit excluding $7.5 million in transaction costs related to an M&A deal with the ASX was up 14% to $81.7 million. But as Deutsche Bank pointed out in a note to clients the unadjusted net profit of $74.2 million was 15% below consensus expectations for $84.8 million. “Numbers still look light even ex-exceptionals,” Deutsche Bank added.

The higher costs were associated with a jump in technology spending that was only partially offset by an increase in revenue from securities trading. SGX last year announced several technology-related initiatives including a $250 million investment into a new trading engine called SGX Reach. At its results briefing SGX also highlighted that expenses for the ASX deal are expected to be about $20 million in FY2011.

A larger number of listings could help to drive up trading volumes on the SGX, which in turn could help mitigate this year’s higher expenses. Also, SGX will scrap the lunch break for its trading session beginning March 1. The continuous trading -- from 9am to 5pm -- is expected to improve volumes as trading hours would overlap with several other Asia-based markets, SGX says. This would allow investors to react in a timely manner to any news flow. SGX says exchanges that implemented continuous trading could expect an improvement in average daily turnover of 6% to 12%.

Ultimately though, what could really lift volumes significantly this year is the flood of money coming to Asian markets. Greater liquidity – a result of a new round of quantitative easing in the US – coupled with better growth prospects and the near certainty of rising currencies in this part of the world is expected to fuel investment into equity markets in Asia; and Singapore is likely to be a beneficiary given the open nature of its capital markets.

Even as all this is taking place though, the potential merger of SGX and its Australian counterpart is casting a shadow over the counter’s movements. Analysts aren’t yet in agreement as to whether or not the deal will be good for local investors. Some see it as a good way for SGX to grow its reach while others see it as an expensive deal with little synergistic value.
The question is which of the two events will determine SGX’s fate this year: Volumes or a major merger? — Joan Ng


Source/转贴/Extract/: Theedgesingapore
Publish date:22/01/11

Be mindful of property bubbles, says MAS

by Millet Enriquez
05:55 AM Jan 22, 2011
SINGAPORE - Banks should take into account potentially higher interest rates in their credit assessments and not assume that the current low cost of funds will last indefinitely, the head of the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said on Friday, as he underlined the need to guard against the risks of asset bubbles.

"Many parts of Asia in particular are vulnerable to property bubbles, not only because of current liquidity conditions but also because many investors believe that, in a growing economy, the property market can only move up," Mr Heng Swee Keat, the managing director of the MAS, said at the opening of French business school EDHEC's Risk Institute Asia.

"Many have forgotten how the property markets in the region slumped during the 1997/98 Asian Financial Crisis," he said.

He said policy makers must leave no doubt of their resolve to tackle the potential build-up of risks and must be willing to take progressively tougher measures, as MAS and other agencies in Singapore had done recently to cool the property market.

The measures, effective from Jan 14, included seller stamp duties imposed at 16, 12, 8 and 4 per cent, respectively, for homes sold in the first, second, third and fourth year from purchase, as well as the lowering of the loan-to-value ratio to 60 per cent for individuals with outstanding mortgages. Also, financial institutions can only grant loans amounting to half the value of the properties purchased by non-individuals, such as companies, trusts and collective investment schemes.

Urging banks to continue prudent lending practices, Mr Heng said the MAS will monitor bank activities closely.

Mr Heng also said the MAS will require all local banks and significant insurers to form a specific committee that will look into how they manage risks.

He said these institutions must have a dedicated Risk Management committee in place after their annual general meetings this year and members of this committee must have the right skills and expertise to perform their duties.

Starting this year, all board members of local banks will also be required to undergo training but MAS didn't provide details on what the training should comprise.

Analysts said the announcement on Friday provided a clear and positive direction for local banks.

"The timing is right," said Ms Annie Koh, associate professor of finance at Singapore Management University (SMU), adding that having a good risk management committee will be most relevant since many local financial institutions are taking on more cross-border expansions.

A DBS spokesman said that for over a decade, the bank has had in place a board risk management committee comprising seasoned bankers and professionals who have deep knowledge of risk management.

"DBS also provides ongoing training for the entire board to help them keep abreast of the latest developments in risk management, capital management, accounting policy changes and regulatory changes," the spokesperson added.

OCBC's Risk Management Committee has been in place since August 2004. It reviews and approves the bank's overall risk management philosophy, risk management frameworks, major risk policies and risk models.

"Our progressive efforts over the years to strengthen risk management practices has enabled the Bank to weather the recent financial crisis with sound asset quality and credit losses below industry level," said Mr Gilbert Kohnke, Group Chief Risk Officer, OCBC.

Meanwhile, a UOB spokesperson said the bank's Executive Committee of Directors has been assisting the Board to manage risks.

"Going forward, a dedicated Risk Management Committee will take over from the Exco, the role of assisting the board in managing the risks arising from the growing complexity of the financial landscape," the spokesperson added.

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.todayonline.com
Publish date:22/01/11

Friday, January 21, 2011

KE: Saizen REIT Debt pressure significantly reduced

Saizen REIT

Share price (S$) S$0.17
Issued shares (m) 1,125.5
Market cap (S$ m) 191.3
Free float (%) 78.1%
Major shareholders- ASM Group 31.6%
52 week px range $0.155‐0.175

Up‐to‐date in 60 seconds
Background: Saizen REIT invests in residential properties across 13 regional cities in Japan. Mired in uncertainty over refinancing issues, the stock price languished in 2009. Through it all, however, Saizen’s property operations remained stable.

Recent development: Saizen is in discussions with banks for a syndicated loan to refinance the commercial mortgage‐backed securities (CMBS) loans of YK Shintoku, which went into maturity default in November 2009. A total of 12 properties from the YK Shintoku portfolio of 51 properties have been sold as part of its deleveraging plan, resulting in the loan being reduced from S$111.6m as of June 2010 to S$78.6m as of Sep 2010.

Our view
Debt pressure significantly reduced. Saizen’s net rental income remained relatively stable in 1QFY Jun11 yoy even as interest costs increased. Proceeds from the remaining 335m unexercised warrants (S$29.5m) or from future property sales may be used to further reduce the outstanding loan and hence the cost pressure. In fact, the group gearing has already come down to a healthy 35.5% as of Sep 2010 from 51% as of Jun 2009.

Investing in a better tomorrow. More importantly, the outlook for Saizen’s property operations remains stable with portfolio occupancy rate still strong at 91%. Based on the maximum enlarged capital of 1.4b units in issue, we estimate DPU of 0.9 cts p.a., which translates to a DPU yield of 5%. Saizen pays semi‐annual distributions, with the next payment expected in March 2010. With a strengthening financial position and a stable distribution yield, the stock is worth a closer look.

Source/转贴/Extract/: Kim Eng Research
Publish date:21/01/11

散户套利亚洲拖累 隆股急挫19点

2011/01/21 5:38:30 PM
●南洋商报

(吉隆坡21日讯)区域股市连续两天下跌的冲击,投资者休假后重返马股后,选择套利离场,马股因而大跌19点,创下2011年的最大跌势!

受到担忧中国降温措施,马股今日跟随区域股市过去两天的跌势,富时大马隆综指闭市时挂1547.43点,全日下跌19.08点或1.22%,成交量为18亿9066万8200股。

今年以来最大跌幅

这也是马股自今年1月4日,2011年开市以来的最低。

马股早盘一开始就以1559.62点开低,午休时挂1552.05点,下跌14.4点;几乎全场综指成份股都报跌。

大部分散户今日选择离场套利和观望,市场认为一来是受亚股昨天暴跌的冲击,二来是散户趁农历新年前套利离场,现金装稳口代过新年,待新年后开市时才再战股海。

黄氏星展研究分析员表示,受到亚洲股市周四大跌的影响,马股周五面对套利压力,综指下跌在所难免,并可能下探1550点的扶持水平。

股市在年初大涨后,上市动力已开始转弱,许多投资者都显得更谨慎和进行套利活动,马股会否出现农历新年前涨潮,仍是个未知数。

27综指成份股收低

周五下跌的股项多达717只股,上升股仅有185只股,以及另224只股平盘。

综指成份股方面也表现不理想,终场时30只成份股项当中,多达27只股收低,上升股只有3只。

导致马股下跌最严重的三只成份股分别为联昌国际(CIMB,1023,主板金融股)跌30仙、云顶(Genting,3182,主板贸服股)跌32仙,以及马银行(Maybank,1155,主板金融股)跌10仙。

中国止跌反弹 区域股市跌不停

市场担心中国仍面临通货膨胀风险,中国政府或将进一步收紧货币政策,区域股市周四全线下跌后,今天只有中国回扬,其他区域股市持续下跌,跌幅约1.5%。

印尼股市最惨

其中,又以印尼股市的跌势最严重,全天跌失达3%以上。

另外,因投资者担心中国强于预期的经济增速,将促使政府推出更多紧缩措施以限制经济过快增长,美国股市周四隔夜股市也走低,道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数午盘跌53点,至11772点,跌幅0.5%。

料中国新春后加息

分析师预计,由于中国政府不太可能于近期放松紧缩的政策,因此投资者在始于2月初的农历新年假期之前仍将保持谨慎。

中原证券(Central China Securities)分析师张刚认为,中国央行可能于农历新年假期之后加息,因为中国的决策者仍对通货膨胀压力及热钱流入感到担忧。

无论如何,中国股市周五收盘上涨,投资者积极逢低买入激发权重股全面活跃。

上海涨1.41%

上海证券综指早盘后段快速上涨,涨幅一度逾2.50%,午盘后有所回落,但整体表现稳定,收盘涨1.41%,报2715.29点。

分析员指出,市场周四跌势已很大程度反映了加息预期,随后恰恰是预期的反向修正。

通货膨胀并非失控到不可收拾的地步,市场已了解通膨可控,只不过是时间问题,因此有机构逢低买入,从成交量放大也可以看出这一点。


Source/转贴/Extract/: 南洋商报
Publish date:21/01/11

DBS: FSLTrust Cash generation continues to disappoint

First Ship Lease Trust
HOLD S$0.47
Price Target : S$ 0.45
Cash generation continues to disappoint

At a Glance
• 4Q10 DPU maintained at 0.95Uscts as expected, despite further decline in net cash generated from operations.
• Contribution from spot charter of product tankers remains tepid; organic DPU growth unlikely in FY11.
• Placement proceeds of ~US$28m raised in FY09 not utilized yet, visibility on acquisitions remains low.
• Maintain HOLD with TP of S$0.45

Comment on Results
4Q10 revenue of US$24.1m was up 3% q-o-q but operating profit was down 19% q-o-q, owing to lower bareboat equivalent rentals received from the product tankers as well as drydocking costs for one of them. As a result, net operating cash was down 8% q-o-q and 20% y-o-y to US$13.0m. While payout was maintained at 0.95 UScts for the quarter, the Trust had to draw down US$0.7m working capital to distribute the US$5.7m to unitholders, after the usual quarterly loan repayment of US$8m.

Outlook and Recommendation
The product tankers continue to be deployed in the spot voyage markets, but utilization rates and net bareboat equivalent income remain below expectations. While freight income was higher q-o-q in 4Q10, expenses were higher as well and the 2 tankers generated bareboat charter equivalent revenue of only US$0.2m in 4Q10, compared to the US$3.8m revenue per quarter applicable during the original charter. With tanker rates unlikely to perform in the near term, we choose to remain conservative on our earnings assumptions from these vessels in FY11.

While the Trust did not provide an update on fleet valuation of US$700m as at end-3Q10, a big change is unlikely. This puts the current value-to-loan ratio at 154%, and implies about 160% coverage at the end of waiver period in June 2011, above the requirement of 145%. We expect DPU payouts to remain at current level in the near term and given that we have not yet seen any acquisition funded by the US$28m placement proceeds raised in FY09, we maintain our HOLD call at an unchanged TP of S$0.45.

Source/转贴/Extract/: DBS Group Research
Publish date:21/01/11

Kim Eng reiterates CapitaMall Trust at Buy

Kim Eng reiterates CapitaMall Trust (C38U.SG) at a Buy with a DDM‐derived target of US$2.32 ($3.00) after the REIT Thursday declared a FY10 DPU of 9.24 Singapore cents on the back of 5.9% on-year growth in net property income.

“With forward yields of at least 5.2% and rising, CMT could be an alternative inflation hedge,” the house says. It adds, like CapitaCommercial Trust (C61U.SG), CMT has a high cash position of US$712 million ($916.8 million).

“However, unlike CCT, we see visibility in the deployment of the cash. This will include the potential early redemption of Convertible Bonds amounting to $578 million, and the capex for the asset enhancement initiatives (AEI) for The Atrium, budgeted at $150 million.”

It adds, with the prospects of DPU boost in 2012 and 2013 following the completion of AEI works at JCube and The Atrium respectively, CMT is trading at attractive valuations. The REIT is flat at $1.89.

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.theedgesingapore.com
Publish date:21/01/11

DBS: FSLTrust Maintain HOLD with TP of S$0.45

4Q10 DPU for First Ship Lease Trust maintained at 0.95Uscts as expected, despite further decline in net cash generated from operations. Contribution from spot charter of product tankers remains tepid; organic DPU growth unlikely in FY11. Visibility on acquisitions remains low. Maintain HOLD with TP of S$0.45.

Source/转贴/Extract/: DBS Group Research
Publish date:21/01/11

DBS: Parkway Life REIT Still going strong

Parkway Life REIT
BUY S$1.77
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.90 (Prev S$ 1.84)
Still going strong

• Management shared updates and growth plans at our well-attended conference in Singapore last week

• Affirmed our beliefs that management will deliver growth through acquisitions and AEI

• Separately, we expect 4Q10 DPU to be at least 2.28 Scts (+11% yoy); results due on 24 Jan

• Raised FY11F/12F DPU by c.2%/3%; Maintain Buy, TP: S$1.90

Growth through acquisitions and AEI. PREIT’s investor meetings during our Pulse of Asia conference last week were very well attended by almost 40 fund managers/analysts. The meetings reaffirmed our views that PREIT’s growth will be from acquisitions in Japan and Malaysia, as well as higher rentals in Singapore amid higher CPI. Management has been evaluating possible entry into Australia but has yet to finalize any suitable deal. Asset enhancement will also be part of management initiatives going forward. With its active debt management, further lowering of their funding cost is possible. We believe many investors were pleased to hear from management that fund raising, if any, will be timed with acquisition, rather than pre-emptively to the market.

4Q results preview; we expect 2.28 Scts DPU. Separately, PREIT will announce their 4Q/FY10 results on 24 Jan. We do not expect any surprises. Based on our estimates, we are expecting 4Q DPU to be at least 2.28cts (+11% yoy, +3% qoq), totaling 8.7 cts for FY10 (FY09: 7.74cts).

Maintain Buy, TP: S$1.90. At current price, shares are trading at a premium c.1.3x P/NAV. This, in our view, arises from a scarcity of quality healthcare assets, as well as

expectations on management to deliver on acquisitions. We are confident that management will meet market expectations. We raised our FY11F/ 12F DPU by 2%/ 3% on higher CPI assumption of 3.2% for 2011, lower all-in interest costs and lower potential dilution from equity raising due to the higher share price since our last report on 6 Oct’10. We are still assuming acquisition of S$200m around mid-2011, funded by 70%/30% equity/debt.

Post-conference Update
Met close to 40 fund managers/analysts during our conference. ParkwayLife REIT (PREIT) participated in our Pulse of Asia Conference in Singapore last week; and, management met almost 40 fund managers/ analysts from 28 funds. We remained positive on the REIT’s prospects, riding on its healthcare assets, upside exposure in gross revenues arising from higher inflation expected, as well as growth through acquisitions and asset enhancement initiatives. Key areas are summarized as follows:

1) Acquisitions: Japan, Malaysia and Australia
Japan: Management continues to be on the lookout for acquisitions of nursing homes there, to further build on its presence. However, they reckon that any acquisitions going forward should be bite-sized. It was also noted that competition for assets has increased of late, but fortunately, PREIT has had the first mover advantage. We expect management to continue to focus on selective assets where they will partner with a strong and established operator. Malaysia: Entry via asset acquisition still ranks high, in our view. As mentioned in our earlier report on 6 Oct 2010, “Life has positive surprises ahead”, we had opined that acquisition of Pantai hospitals in Malaysia is probable. Management indicated that acquisitions, if any, would likely be bite-sized as well. Rough assessment puts the hospital assets at c.S$500m. Australia: Management has been evaluating Australia as one of its key markets. However, the high interest rate environment is a hurdle. Management shared that they will continue to evaluate and adopt a strict discipline to only acquire yield accretive assets when funded in AUD. Returns will then be further enhanced when funding is via foreign currencies.

2) Asset enhancement: Japan and Singapore
Asset enhancement initiatives in Japan. Having built up an asset portfolio of c.S$400m in Japan, management will also focus on initiatives to enhance its assets. Earlier in 2010, PREIT had completed a relatively small maiden AEI for one of its nursing homes (Maison Des Centenaire Haruki), which increased rent for the asset by 8.63% with an relatively low outlay of JPY11.5m (S$0.18m). The estimated ROI was 32.3% and estimated breakeven in 3.1years. Going forward, we expect AEI in Japan to pick up pace over the next 12 months. …and Singapore. As mentioned previously, management will look towards asset enhancement initiatives, such as addition of GFA within the hospitals. This, in our view, should happen over the next 12-18 months.

3) Others:
Higher CPI will bode well for gross revenue. Recent gains in Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Singapore will bode well for the REIT’s gross revenue. In recent months, Singapore’s CPI has been trending above 3%. Our DBS economist expects CPI in 2011 to average 3.2%, up from 2010’s 2.8%, which willprovide a boost to minimum gross rental for PREIT’s hospitals. Recall that gross rental is calculated based on the higher of (i) base rent of S$30m and 3.8% of hospital revenue; or, (ii) growth rate of 1%+CPI (previous year) from previous year rent.

We expect debt management to lower interest cost further. As seen in its track record, PREIT has been active in the management of debts. Recall that in 2H10, management has refinanced its debts to capitalize on the lower interest rate environment and lengthen their debt maturity profile. We believe this could continue as they seek to maximize DPU for unit holders.

Fund raising
There were queries on fund raising in view of potential acquisitions. Management reiterated their stance that there will be no pre-emptive fund raising just to capitalize on market sentiment. Instead, any potential fund raising will be for targeted acquisitions. Like us, we believe investors were assured of management’s direction with regards to any potential fund raising.

Results preview
We are expecting 4QDPU of 2.28 Scts. Separately, PREIT will be announcing its 4Q/FY10 results on 24 Jan 11, before market opens. We do not expect any surprises. Based on our estimates, we are looking for a 4Q DPU distribution of c.2.28 Scts (FY10: 8.7Scts, +13% yoy), a c.10% yoy increase from 4Q09’s 2.05 Scts. This should come about on a full quarter’s contribution from 5 nursing homes acquired in Jul’10, lower interest cost from refinancing of debt in 4Q and higher gross rental from Singapore as it enters into its 4th year of lease (Aug’10-Aug’11).

Valuation
Exposure to healthcare, hedge on inflation and growth via acquisitions. At current price, shares are trading at c.1.3x P/NAV. This, in our view, arises from a scarcity of quality healthcare assets, as well as expectations on management to deliver on acquisitions. In our view, the low interest rate environment and premium NAV avails management the debt funding capabilities to pursue its acquisitions where appropriate. We believe acquisitions will drive growth in 2011, mainly from assets from Parkway as well as further additions to its stable of nursing homes.

Maintain Buy, TP raised to S$1.90. We raised our DPU by 2%/3% for FY11F/12F on the back of: (i) higher CPI assumption in 2011; (ii) lower all-in interest costs of 2%, from 2.15% previously, as we expect further refinancing of loans; (iii) lower dilution from potential new shares issued in our assumption, in line with higher share price since our last report. Our TP is raised marginally to S$1.90 (WACC 6%, t=2%). We have assumed S$200m acquisitions by mid-2011, funded by 70%/30% equity/ debt.

Key Risks
Key risks to our recommendation are:
(i) Our assumed acquisitions of S$200m do not materialize or take longer than expected. This could lower our TP going forward. Notwithstanding that, downside risk for its share price is fairly limited based on existing operations.

(ii) Success of its equity funding to fund further expansion as this depends on market conditions.

(iii) Higher interest rates, or signs of possible interest rate increase could trigger a de-rating for the REIT asset class, which would affect PREIT, no matter its defensiveness. PREIT has managed to refinance its loans at lower interest rates and lengthen its maturity. However, upward pressure on interest rates could impact on PREIT further in the future.

(iv) Systematic risk from the collapse or failure of Japanese pension fund or long-term care insurance system, which would be a systematic risk for the nursing care industry in Japan.


Source/转贴/Extract/: DBS Group Research
Publish date:21/01/11

DBS: CMT Growth momentum intact

Capitamall Trust
BUY S$1.89
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 2.08 (Prev S$ 2.09)

Growth momentum intact
• 4Q10 performance in line with expectations
• Positive rental reversion and AEI works to underpin growth
• Maintain Buy with TP $2.08

Results in line. 4Q10 topline revenue of S$151.3m was 8% higher yoy, benefiting from the acquisition of Clarke Quay and an organic improvement within its portfolio. However, NPI improved by a smaller 5.7% to S$101.5m due to seasonally higher cost-to-income ratio of 33%. Distribution income rose a modest 3.5% to S$71.8m, on greater financing expenses. The group took in a revaluation surplus of S$122.3m in 4Q10, lifting book NAV to S$1.55. Operation-wise, the group renewed 898,713sf of NLA (c25.4% of total) in 2010 with leases contracted at 6.5% above the previous period. This was supported by a 3.8% better pedestrian footfall and 6.4% higher gross turnover. In general, the city malls such as Bugis Junction, Clarke Quay and Raffles City did better with traffic flow increasing 6-14%.

Positive rental reversion to continue. We anticipate the rental uptrend to continue into 2011, underpinned by healthy economic growth and strong influx of tourists into Spore. Rental pricing power may also have improved as tenant occupancy cost fell from 16.7% in 2009 to 16.4% last year. An estimated 22.3% of NLA is due for reversions in 2011, largely from IMM and Bugis Junction. In terms of debt management, the group is well placed to refinance/repay its outstanding CBs of $579.9m if put in July 2011, with a cash balance of $713m as at Dec 2010.

Earnings momentum to pick up in medium term. Completion of AEI works at Raffles City will boost earnings this year, while redevelopment of JCube and The Atrium AEI, scheduled to reopen in 1Q12 and 4Q12 respectively, should provide a continual source of earnings growth when completed over the next 2 years. In addition, CMT is well placed to look for new acquisition/development opportunities with a current gearing of 35.9% or debt headroom of $810m.

Maintain Buy, TP $2.08. We continue to like CMT as the market leader in the Singapore retail space. It is on track to deliver a 3- pronged organic and inorganic growth strategy. Maintain Buy with TP of $2.08, implying a total return of 15%.

Source/转贴/Extract/: DBS Group Research
Publish date:21/01/11

Genting is ranked the second largest gaming company in the world

􀁺 Genting is ranked the second largest gaming company in the world (in terms of market cap adjusted for gaming revenue only), by Global Betting & Gaming Consultants in its latest survey of the industry.

􀁺 The top 5 are:
a. Las Vegas Sands : US$ 25.5 bln
b. Genting : US$ 19.1 bln
c. Sands China : US$ 16.7 bln
d. Wynn Macau : US$12.4 bln
e. SJM Holdings : US$9.0 bln

􀁺 While Genting appears richly valued relative to the 3 listed Macau gaming companies, a fairer thing to do may be to compare Genting with the combined market of the 3rd-to-5th largest gaming companies, which comes to US$38.1 bln, ie Genting is half that of the 3 combined, which dominate the world’s largest gaming market.

􀁺 Fact is, Genting has started to receive less enthusiastic ratings by broking houses, especially since the release of Q3 results on Nov 11th, which pushed the stock down 17% in 7 sessions to a low of $1.95 on Nov 25th, from the $2.35 peak reached two days before the Q3 results. Genting has since rebounded to the $2.20 level.

􀁺 We do not have a rating on Genting, but would not rule out a test of the high during the lunar new year period, given the company has yet to finish a “full year” since obtaining its casino licence. (NYSE-listed LA Sands hit a low of US$1.38 at the bottom in early 2009 after teetering on the brink of bankruptcy, and is now just under US$50 obviously benefitting from Marina Sands in Singapore and Sands China. SJM is controlled by Stanley Ho, former casino king of Macao.)

Source/转贴/Extract/:Limtan Securities
Publish date:20/01/11

CIMB: North South Expressway gets green light, Singapore contractors to benefit

North South Expressway gets green light, Singapore contractors to benefit
• Yesterday, the Land Transport Authority (LTA) gave approval for the alignment of the North-South Expressway (NSE) between Admiralty Road West and Toa Payoh Rise. When completed, the NSE will be Singapore's 11th expressway, and will run parallel to the Central Expressway (CTE). Among SGX-listed construction stocks under our coverage, we believe that OKP and Yongnam have the most direct exposure to NSE.

• Road works underway for the next 10years: The 5km Marina Coastal Expressway (MCE) is currently under construction, and is expected to be completed by 2013. Meanwhile, construction of the proposed 16km NSE is expected to commence from 2013 and finish by 2020. Given the scale (3x longer than MCE measured by length) and complication (described by LTA as “one of the most challenging engineering undertakings to date”) of the NSE, we expect bigger and potentially more lucrative contracts to be awarded to contractors.

• OKP (BUY; TP: S$0.85): OKP is involved in the construction and maintenance of urban and arterial roads, expressways, vehicular bridges, flyovers etc. The company is also likely to benefit from road construction contracts awarded for the NSE project. We like OKP for its high projects visibility in the public sector, and its strong potential overseas expansion story. OKP is also a prime candidate to benefit from governments’ infrastructural spending.

• Yongnam (Outperform; TP S$0.41): As a leading provider of specialist civil engineering (SCE) solutions in Singapore, we believe that Yongnam is well-positioned to secure specialist civil engineering contracts for the NSE project. The Group won six MCE contracts worth S$363m in aggregate between 2009 and 2010. Given that the NSE is a much bigger project compared to the MCE, we expect its total contract wins for the NSE to surpass its MCE contract wins. Its order book stands at S$451xm as at 30 Sep 2010, with the record high of S$540m registered on 30 Sep 2009. We expect the specialist civil engineering contracts for the NSE to be awarded from 4Q2012.

Source/转贴/Extract/:CIMB Research
Publish date:20/01/11

MapletreeLog’s 4Q total distributable amount rises 17% to $37m from 3Q

Mapletree Logistics Trust has announced a total distributable amount of $37 million for 4Q 2010, an improvement of 17% compared with 3Q 2010.

Gross revenue for 4Q 2010 increased by about 12% to $61 million from 3Q 2010 with the net property income (NPI) reflecting a corresponding improvement of about 13% against 3Q 2010.

DPU for 4Q 2010 grew to 1.55 cents from 1.54 cents in 3Q 2010.

The revenue and income growth reflected the full quarter contribution of acquisitions completed during 3Q 2010 as well as contribution from the five properties acquired during this quarter.

4Q 2010 also saw a further increase in the occupancy rate of Malaysia from approximately 95% to 99% with an improvement in rental rates reported across the portfolio. With these factors, amount distributable increased by $5 million to $37 million.

As at 31 December 2010, MapletreeLog had a portfolio of 96 properties. The 96 properties include 54 in Singapore, 14 in Japan, 11 in Malaysia, 8 in Hong Kong, 6 in China, 2 in South Korea and 1 in Vietnam. Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan remained the key contributors to the portfolio, contributing close to 90% of MapletreeLog’s NPI. MapletreeLog’s borrowings also increased to $1,354 million versus $1,093 million last year in view of the acquisitions completed in 2010.

Looking forward, MapletreeLog says Asia is expected to stay in expansionary mode, albeit at a more moderate and sustainable pace compared to 2010. In the International Monetary Fund forecast issued in October 2010, the 2011 GDP growth for Asia was revised marginally down to 6.7% from its July forecast of 6.8%, after taking into consideration the fact that inventory rebuilding has fuelled global external demand growth.


Source/转贴/Extract/: www.theedgesingapore.com
Publish date:20/01/11

Restoring sanity to property prices

by Ku Swee Yong
05:55 AM Jan 21, 2011
When the latest property measures were unveiled on Jan 13, it took most market watchers by surprise, mainly because we had been reassured several times that the previous rounds of measures announced on Aug 10 had been effective.

Reaction from the local market has been negative but not too severe, as shown in a survey by property blog propwise.sg

Were these new measures necessary? Definitely.
At the macro level, Singapore's real estate is far from being overleveraged. According to data from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), as at the end of October last year, total housing loans amounted to $109 billion and the total number of completed private housing units stood at 256,513 units.

This included private residences, from good-class bungalows down to shoebox apartments. Assuming an average value of each unit at $1.1 million, the total value of completed private homes is $282 billion; that is, the loan-to-value ratio is a relatively low 39 per cent islandwide.

However, at the micro-level, pockets of risks exist. Table 1 shows a sampling of the record high prices achieved last year.

The Vision was launched in the first quarter of last year and its "higher-than-the-neighbourhood's" transacted psf prices helped to lift the general valuations in the West Coast. The highest price achieved of the 199 units that were transacted in Q2 last year was $1,266 per sq ft (psf). The average price for The Vision in Q2 2010 was $1,019 psf versus the neighbouring developments Blue Horizon (sharing a common boundary wall with The Vision) at $856 psf and Westcove Condo across the road at $689 psf. The highest price achieved in The Vision is almost double the average price achieved in Westcove Condo that quarter.

The same story unfolded itself across the outskirts throughout 2010: Serangoon, Pasir Panjang, Bukit Panjang, Pasir Ris, Yio Chu Kang, Ang Mo Kio, Yishun and more.

A most recent example is The Lakefront Residences in Jurong West launched in Q4 2010. Of the 167 units transacted, based on the latest Realis data, the highest price achieved was $1,362 psf and the average was $1,074 psf. Just 100m away, the older condominium Lakeholmz, at $681 psf on average, is half of the peak price at The Lakefront Residences (without considering the sizes of apartments, just comparing psf values for the street block). Even if we topped up the 10-year expired lease tenure for Lakeholmz to 99 years and added a generous construction cost of $250 psf, it would be difficult to place a value for a new apartment in that street at above $1,000 psf.

So it would seem Singaporeans value "newness" with a very high premium? Wrong. When we compare the prices of the still-under-construction Caspian (which shares a boundary wall with The Lakefront Residences), at an average of $793 psf in Q4 2010, we see that the newness value is not sufficient to explain the prices achieved at The Lakefront Residences.

Within two to four years, both projects will be delivered to buyers brand new. So why did The Lakefront Residences achieve an average price that is 35-per-cent higher than Caspian's? I am obliged to add two other factors to justify the premium: The "showflat wow" factor and the "showflat peer pressure" factor.


Pushing up the PPI
With premium prices achieved during property launches at 20- to 50-per-cent higher than neighbouring average psf prices and multiplied by the number of transacted units, it is no wonder that the Private Property Index (PPI) kept rising though 2010.

The PPI rose in Q4 2010 despite August's cooling measures. It's a good thing the URA's overall PPI is weighted so that transactions in a few launch projects do not overly distort the PPI. Otherwise, the rise of the Q4 2010 PPI would not have been a mere 2.7 per cent.

And that led us to the latest round of measures.
Apart from the overall islandwide PPI published by URA, investors can refer to URA's website for transactions in specific projects and compare prices so as to make better decisions. However, of late, most investors do not seem to be doing their homework and have purchased in large numbers at record high prices in the suburbs across Singapore.

Who might be the next target?
Investors make up one of several constituents in a property transaction. The past few rounds of measures have already hit investors hard enough. In the next set of measures, if any, the other parties who may be targeted are the developers, the sales agents, the mortgage lenders and valuers.

Many investors and analysts have pointed their fingers at foreign investors and their "hot money" causing Singapore's real estate to overheat.

Yet the new launches that set record-high prices in the suburbs do not attract foreigners as much as they attract Singaporeans. Table 2 shows why we should not blame hot foreign money for bringing on the latest round of measures.

On average, about 25 per cent of residential units are purchased by foreigners. These projects listed in the table are clearly well below the national average. Perhaps Singaporeans are the ones pouring hot money into property.

I would rule out targeting developers unless there are issues of misrepresentation. Otherwise, developers do what they do - acquire land, build showflats, and sell homes.

The sales agents have come under the new Council of Estate Agents and are already facing tighter operating parameters. Again, unless there is bad practice or misrepresentation, I do not think they will be the next target.

As for the mortgage lenders, when I made enquiries about loans for investors buying at these record high prices, the answer invariably was: "Oh, valuers matched developer's selling prices." Of course, as long as there are valuers who can sign off on a certain value for a property, banks are eager to lend.

How might valuers agree to value a new launch that is priced at 20- to 50-per-cent higher than other transactions in the neighbourhood? One counterargument regularly given to me is: As long as there are transactions in this new launch at this price, the valuers can support valuations at the new highs.

In the example of Caspian above, buyers today would find it difficult to obtain a loan based on $1,000psf valuation. Sellers are also unable to ask for prices above $1,000 psf when prospective buyers are unable to secure loans at that value. However, the same buyer can purchase a smaller unit at the same investment quantum at Lakefront Residences at $1,150 psf with a bank loan attached. I wonder why the discrepancy given that the two properties are side-by-side and both are not completed.

By not taking reference from other similar transactions in the neighbourhood, this means that valuations are justified solely on transacted prices within the new launch itself. Without taking into account the lower values of neighbouring condominiums and the intrinsic land value in the vicinity, this valuation method is a self-fulfilling upward spiral.

Having excluded the foreigners, the developers and the sales agents, we are left with two targets for the next set of cooling measures, if any.

Perhaps one approach would be to require valuers to disclose their assumptions and methods to the MAS and valuations for new launches to take into account values of other properties in the neighbourhood. Banks may be instructed to lend for new launches based on this more comprehensive and inclusive method of valuation.

Furthermore, seeing the strong response to the attractive investment package at Spottiswoode18 this week, I believe tougher measures to restore sanity to the market may not be far away.

Ku Swee Yong is the founder of real estate agency International Property Advisor (IPA), which provides services to high-net-worth individuals.







Source/转贴/Extract/: www.todayonline.com
Publish date:21/01/11

Will cooling measures work this time?

by Colin Tan 05:55 AM
Jan 21, 2011
Government measures are most effective when they are unexpected. That was why I concluded last week that the single most effective move was not the measures themselves but the timing of their introduction.

In economics, this topic is covered under the expectations theory. If the market expects the announcement, players will take positions that will nullify some of its effectiveness.

Looking at the latest round of cooling measures, the tools are not very different from the previous rounds except that they come with more punitive conditions.

The hike in sellers' stamp duty penalises early resale but tellingly, no mention was made of how big the problem was, unless the purpose was to deter property buying for investment by making it less attractive. Indirectly, this confirms for the first time that overly strong sales are also viewed as a problem, not just rapid price growth.

Seller's stamp duty on new properties was raised as much as 16 per cent of the sale price if the home is offloaded within a year of purchase, dropping by 4 per cent each subsequent year till the fourth year.

Given Singapore's strong fundamentals and steady - if not buoyant - economic growth, both local and foreign property investors can do no worse than park their monies in properties here than elsewhere, even if it is for four years. Lest we forget, investment purchases by foreign investors may even grow without any price increases if our local currency appreciates substantially against their home currencies.

Some have commented that the revised stamp duties are like taking a sledgehammer to the market. Are we not underestimating the extent of the problem here? Could anyone have foreseen that we would have reached our fourth set of cooling measures in just sixteen months after the first in September 2009. This works out to be about one set every five months!

Others expect sales volume and home prices in all segments, except at the top-end, to fall.

Let us put ourselves in the shoes of a hypothetical investor. By now, prices have already risen to quite high levels and we are closer to the peak.

Let us say that the investor has resources to buy only one high-end property or four mass market ones. Which is the preferred option? I am almost certain, nine out of 10 will pick the latter. Should the market correct unexpectedly, it is a lot easier to dispose of the lower-priced properties. In a sharp correction, most buyers are owner-occupiers and they have affordability issues.

The comment that prices of suburban homes are most vulnerable is also tantamount to saying that many of the developers who participated in the state sales of suburban sites last year did not do their homework if demand is indeed so fragile. You can question their bids but you cannot deny the demand. Let us give them some credit. They are putting their money where their mouths are - it is not just coffee shop talk.

Many are also expecting a price correction for the whole year. I can foresee a short-term correction, if any, because of panic sales in the secondary market. But a correction for the whole year, led presumably by price cuts from developers? Has anyone taken a recent look at their balance sheets after record sales for 2009 and last year? Are these knee-jerk analyses?

In the latest set of measures, we expect potential buyers to act "rationally" and pull back their buying. But are we expecting too much? This is the same group of people who have irrationally ignored the fact that there is more than ample supply in the market. We know that the authorities have been highlighting this fact at every opportunity. Can this group still feign ignorance?

We cannot simply brush this "selective rational thinking" aside because then our line of argument lacks consistency. Then we believe only what we want to believe.

For sure, with each set of measures, a slice of potential buyers are removed from the market but are many of us continuing to under-estimate the depth of liquidity in the markets?

It is worth repeating here what a local pre-eminent economist concluded in a published e-mail exchange with another last year. It is that loose monetary policy invariably leads to asset inflation. There are no two ways about it.

For the economist, the crux of the problem is low interest rates. Not many have bought into or fully understood this yet. Have the latest measures addressed that? If not, I am convinced more cooling measures will be needed until the liquidity problem fully dissipates.



Colin Tan is Head, Research & Consultancy at Chesterton Suntec International.

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.todayonline.com
Publish date:21/01/11

Pay more attention to raising supply

by Conrad Raj

05:55 AM Jan 21, 2011

While the Government has to act to prevent the property market from getting beyond the reach of most Singaporeans, I am however not very comfortable that the latest steps - announced last week - are the best means of dealing with the issue.

Not only are the measures fairly drastic, they appear to be dealing more with curbing demand than raising supply.

The Government has claimed that there is no shortage of supply. It points out that the sites awarded last year under the Government Land Sales Programme (GLS) will yield about 13,300 units. For the first half of this year, it says it will make available sites that would be able to yield about 14,300 units.

Further, as at the end of the third quarter of last year, there were about 64,400 uncompleted units in the pipeline, of which roughly half were still unsold. These compare with the annual take-up rate of about 12,700 units between 2007 and last year. Unfortunately, there is a lag period between the site award and the sale of the property.

The latest attempt to cool the property market may have the unintended effect of reducing supply as developers decide to take a wait-and-see approach. They might be even willing to pay the penalties for missing completion deadlines rather than sell at a loss. It could also see the bigger developers with the financial muscle to hold being able to take advantage of those who can't hang on to their sites.

And will the new rules which took effect the day after they were announced - Jan 13 - force buyers to give up options, now that financing will be more difficult to obtain?

Under the new rules, financial institutions can only grant loans amounting to half the value of the properties purchased by non-individuals, such as companies, trusts and collective investment schemes. Individuals with existing outstanding mortgages can now borrow only up to 60 per cent of the value of their next property purchase.

Another unintended effect could be that those who have the financial resources will be able to get more properties on the cheap - to sell when prices recover later.

But should the Government be overly concerned with private-sector housing? Should it be going all out to prevent a fool from parting with his money?

Despite numerous warnings about the dangers of a property bubble bursting and that the current low interest rate regime might not last for too long, property prices, prior to the latest measures, continued to climb.

I believe the Government should be more concerned about housing the masses. It has done a marvellous job, having built more than one million units since the Housing and Development Board (HDB) was established. At present, some 900,000 units house more than four-fifths of the population. For the vast majority of newly-weds, their first home is likely to be an HDB flat. These are the people whom the Government has to be concerned with.

The Government has said it will be building more HDB flats - up to 22,000 Build-To-Order flats this year - to accommodate the masses. Will these be enough?

It should perhaps also get out of building executive condominiums (EC) units which provide condo-like facilities and the Design, Build and Sell Scheme (DBSS) units. The HDB says land for some 8,000 of these could be launched this year. Why should the HDB be catering to the needs of this select group?

Look at what is happening to the estates that were built by the HUDC for an earlier group of the so-called sandwiched class. Some like Farrer Court, Amberville and Bedok Reservoir, have been sold en bloc to private developers. The remaining ones - Shunfu, Braddell Heights, Pine Grove, Laguna Park, Neptune Court, Chancery Court and Eunosville - have been privatised or are in the process of being privatised in anticipation of en bloc sales. Why must public funds be used to cater to such profiteering?

Rather than be all things to all people, the Government should concentrate on housing the masses.



Conrad Raj is editor-at-large with Today.



Source/转贴/Extract/: www.todayonline.com
Publish date:21/01/11

Thursday, January 20, 2011

Citigroup 4Q10 Results Review (phillip)

Citigroup Inc
4Q10 Results Review
Closing Price USD 4.76
52w k High (1/14/2011) 5.15
52w k Low (2/9/2010) 3.11

Technical Summary

Citi moved 25% from low of $4.11 to $5.15 with few pauses in between. 1/3 retracement from the high of $5.15 will take us to $4.80 and 2/3 from this same high is $4.50. In two trading days, Citi share price fell by 8% to close $4.74. From the looks of it, the counter is still in retracement mode and we do not advise entry until this short term move has stabilized (another 3-5 trading days). Note however, that a close below $4.50 will place Citi’s uptrend in peril.

A positive development is Citi’s ability to top previous high of $5.07 to close at high of $5.15. We are however mindful of double tops, though we hold the opinion that fundamentals are likely to drive this stock price higher, hence invalidating the possibility of a double dip.

Fundamental Summary
Having beat consensus in 3Q10 with poor results, Citi went on to underperform the street’s expectations in 4Q10. But at least the company has turned in a profitable quarter with EPS of $0.04.

Citi reported full year revenue of $87 billion for 2010, an increase of 8% y-y. Net income was S$10.6 billion compared to net loss of $1.6 billion in 2009. Core income from CitiCorp was $15 billion but dragged down by losses in Citi Holdings which suffered loss of $4.2 billion. Full year diluted EPS reported was $0.35 (-$0.29).

For 4Q10, revenue fell 11% q-q; +240% y-y to $18.4 billion. Though net income fell 40% q-q to $1.3 billion, it is at least positive compared to the $7.6 billion loss in 2009. Net interest income fell 3% q-q; +15% y-y to $12.8 billion. Noninterest income slump 26% qq to $5.6 billion.

Key Trends perpetuate recovery
We note that Citi books showed recovery. Not only did the bank register higher deposits and loans growth, credit sales purchases were up. The bank benefitted from its geographically diversified business, drawing 76% of income from non-US regions. Loan metrics also showed improvement in credit quality with lower loan provisions and allowances. Delinquency rate for both mortgages and credit cards had also fallen. These are encouraging signs.

Conclusion
Throughout 2010, we repeatedly caution that the returns from holding Citi may be paltry. But in December 2010, we issued a Trading Buy for Citi shares after the US government had disposed all of Citi shares. And although fourth quarter results underperformed the Street’s expectations and the share price fell, we believe this price weakness is temporary and offers opportunities for investors to get more for less. Looking at the key trends in Citi results, we believe its fundamentals could drive the share price faster and farther in 2011. Management also announced their plans to return capital to shareholders in 2012. Hence, we maintain our Trading Buy. We also retain our view that Regulatory changes will remain the largest risk for Citi or the banking sector in general.

Fundamental Perspective
We review 4Q10 and full year results for Citigroup.

Income Statement Analysis
Citi reported full year revenue of $87 billion for 2010, an increase of 8% y-y. Net income was S$10.6 billion compared to net loss of $1.6 billion in 2009. Core income from CitiCorp was $15 billion but dragged down by losses in Citi Holdings which suffered loss of $4.2 billion. Full year diluted EPS reported was $0.35 (-$0.29).

For fourth quarter results, revenue fell 11% q-q; +240% y-y to $18.4 billion. Though net income fell 40% q-q to $1.3 billion, it is at least positive compared to the $7.6 billion loss in 2009. Net interest income fell 3% q-q; +15% y-y to $12.8 billion Noninterest income slump 26% q-q to $5.6 billion.

The charts below showed a downward trend in Citi’s revenue and EPS. Revenue of $18.4 billion included negative Credit Value Adjustment (CVA) of $1.1 billion which was the result of tightening spreads. Excluding the CVA, revenue would be $19.5 billion, still perpetuating the downtrend. However, we think Citi did a decent job with a quick turnaround in performance. This is itself a surprise and management’s ability to show profits for 4 successive quarters is a feat we cannot ignore despite this downtrend. We further note certain key trends which showed that the bank is likely to be on the mend.

Positive Developments
1. Greater revenue contribution from Non-US markets;
Citicorp business derives 50% of revenue and 80% of net income from Latin America and Asia. The proportion of monies derived from non-US markets is growing and is a positive trend. The bank participates in regions with higher economic growth and reduces dependence to the weaker Western markets. Citi is increasing investment spending in these regions to support future growth.

2. Improvement in Loan portfolios
Improvement in credit quality of loans resulted in larger loan reserve releases, lower net credit losses as well as lesser provision for loan losses despite higher loans extended.

Loan loss reserve ratios and allowances for both corporate and consumer loans are also declining. All these statistics represent positive developments in Citi.

Mortgage portfolio in Citi Holdings also showed improvement with reduction in NCLs and 90-day delinquencies. Citi aims to reduce the mortgage portfolio further through a combination of sales, runoff and net credit losses.

3. Stronger deposits and loans
Full year Citicorp deposits grew 3% y-y. On a sequential basis, deposits also increased 3.5% y-y; 0.3% q-q to $759.7 billion. Specifically pertaining to International Consumer Banking, average loans and average deposits have been growing.

4. Improvement in Card Trends and Mortgage Trends
Trends for North America cards reflect improving credit quality. Both NCLs and delinquencies are down, as shown in exhibit below. Similar trends are seen in both the first and second mortgage portfolios. Compared to the fourth quarter of last year, Citi reduced their first mortgage portfolio by almost 20% to $80 billion and second mortgages were down 14% to $44 billion through a combination of sales, runoff and net credit losses.

In 4Q10, Citi sold $1.5 billion in delinquent mortgages. For full year 2010, $4.8 billion total sales of delinquent mortgages were made. These sales helped to reduce the delinquency inventory and lessen future risk of default.

To help home owners, Obama administration introduced the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP). Citi had through this program, converted a total of $4.8 billion trial mods to permanent modifications and noted that the re-default rates for HAMP modified loans are less than 15%.

5. Citiholdings
Even the bad’ assets in Citiholdings saw their face value increase. Special Asset Pool managed to contribute $250 million to net income. With further improvements in the US economy, Citi may have an easier time disposing assets in Citiholdings 4Q10 Income - impacted by 3 key factors

1. CVA was a negative $1.1 billion as Citi spreads tightened in the fourth quarter.
2. Weaker trading performance in the Fixed Income and Equities business. Management disclosed that their weaker trading was concentrated in the Rates and Currency business, specifically the G10 Rates business in fixed income.
3. Expenses were up 8% y-y; 1% q-q to $12.5 billion. This is above Citi’s prior guidance. Break down of the increase in expenses encompasses about $150 million due to foreign exchange, about $400 million related to legal and related matters, $100 million was severance and restructuring and about $150 million each of investment and volume driven growth.


Other trends:
Overall, Citi’s operating expenses are increasing largely in part due to investment spending in emerging markets. Citi aims to be a leader in digital banking and mobile payments and is spending on technology. As it becomes a geographical diversified bank there are also writeoffs arising from foreign exchange losses, as the greenback had depreciated against other currencies.

Reducing Citi Holdings stakes
Citi continue to dispose of assets in Citi Holdings but of course, the pace of reduction will slow because there just aren’t that much assets left for sale as oppose to a year ago. In SAP, there are $80 billion assets but a third are held to maturity assets. In Local Consumer Lending (LCL), which consist of $252 billion assets, more than 50% are in US mortgages and it is difficult to sell these assets by $10 to $20 billion chunks. But Citi will chip away these assets at every opportunity. In Brokerage & Asset Management (BAM), total assets are $27 billion but 94% of it comprise of the MS Smith Barney JV.

Conclusion:
Throughout 2010, we repeatedly caution that the returns from holding Citi may be paltry. But in December 2010, we issued a Trading Buy for Citi shares after the US government had disposed all of Citi shares. And although fourth quarter results underperformed the Street’s expectations and the share price fell, we believe this price weakness is temporary and offers opportunities for investors to get more for less. Looking at the key trends in Citi results, we believe its fundamentals could drive the share price faster and farther this year. Management also announced their plans to return capital to shareholders in 2012. Hence, we maintain our Trading Buy. We also retain our view that Regulatory changes will remain the largest key risk for Citi or the banking sector in general. As it is, FDIC proposed change in formula for assessing banks may impact large banks dramatically.

In terms of valuations, Citi is trading slightly above tangible book value. Base on current share price of $4.80, PB is 0.9x. At EPS of $0.35, the PE ratio is 13.7x. Citi is not priced too richly base on these valuation measures.


Source/转贴/Extract/: phillip
Publish date:20/01/11

新興市場今年投資亮點‧匯豐:馬股值得關注

Created 01/20/2011 - 19:10

(吉隆坡20日訊)匯豐銀行指出,新興市場仍然是2011年投資的亮點,亞洲新興市場中,大馬、台灣、俄羅斯及中國市場值得關注。

大馬亞去年10月實施經濟轉型計劃(ETP),目標未來10年,每年可望達成國內生產總值6%的成長;預期未來1至2年內,私人投資可望在政府加速基礎建設之下成長。

台灣除了高科技業評價高外,在兩岸經濟合作架構協議(ECFA)生效後,有助刺激中國及台灣的貿易與旅遊業成長,進一步帶動經濟成長。

匯豐私人銀行主辦“2011年投資前景:通膨升溫―動盪的2011年投資之道”新聞發佈會,匯豐私人銀行亞洲投資策略主管馬亨德蘭看好包括亞洲在內的新興市場股票及貨幣、黃金等貴金屬走勢。

人民幣可緩步升值3%

他認為,新興市場貨幣兌主要貨幣今年將繼續升值。其中新加坡幣估計升值幅度在5至10%,人民幣升勢較為溫和,今年可望緩步升值3%。

不過,他也預期,新興市場各國中行將干預匯市,以免該國貨幣“過度”升值。

馬亨德蘭指出,在通貨膨脹壓力升高下,今年是新興市場債券較不易操作的一年,另新興亞洲股票上漲至今,股票價值雖然並不算貴,但漲多的亞洲股市必須稍做休息,才能蓄積上漲動能。

他表示,在新興市場股市投資部份,可留意俄羅斯股票、東協不動產、台灣化工業等標的;另外黃金等貴金屬今年可望有優於大盤的走勢。

馬亨德蘭認為市場2011年仍有風險。包括油價上漲帶動通膨壓力升高、金價急漲帶動資產泡沫及中國(包括亞洲)貿易成長趨緩,威脅全球經濟復甦,都是今年可能的隱憂。


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Source/转贴/Extract/: biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:20/01/11

擔心中國升息‧美新屋開工降‧亞股全盤皆墨

Created 01/20/2011 - 18:30

(吉隆坡20日訊)美國新屋開工數下降,中國公佈經濟數據引發進一步緊縮升息隱憂,亞股3天以來首度拉回,全盤皆墨,其中中國跌幅最大,挫逾3%,香港、日本、澳洲、泰國和印尼股市都下跌超過1%。

中股挫3%

分析員說,中國甫公佈的經濟成長數據超越市場預期,引發投資者擔憂政府將採取更多舉措收緊貨幣政策,且美國公佈的房屋開工數據下滑亦給市場帶來拖累。

中國第四季經濟成長9.8%,通膨4.6%,市場擔心中國會繼續貨幣緊縮,法國巴黎銀行分析師表示,通膨壓力在進入一月將持續升高,特別在考量第四季強勁的經濟成長表現後,中國政府緊縮貨幣供給的力道也將逐漸增強。

中國股市在數據出爐後轉跌,上海股市下跌2.92%,深圳股市下跌3.4%。

美股下挫

隔夜美國股市下跌,標準普爾500指數出現11月來最大下跌,因為高盛公司獲利未能超過預期,且房屋開工跌幅高於預期。標普500收市下跌1.46%至2725.36點,道瓊斯工商指數下跌12.64點至11825.29點。

美主要科技公司和高盛財報不如預期,引發東京股市獲利了結賣壓,在連漲3個交易日後,日經指數週四下跌119.79點至10437.31點收市。

分析師表示,日本財報季將於本月底開跑,日本企業的獲利預料將出現明顯復甦,在此樂觀預期下投資人可望在低檔買進,有助限制大盤跌勢。

東京一吉投資管理公司經理人秋野充成表示:“目前恐難找到理由進場買進。”

港股下跌433.04點

香港股市創5週以來的最大跌幅,因擔心中國進一步緊縮,香港股市首當其沖,在銀行和產業股市領跌下,香港股市截至3時40分下跌433.04點至23986.58點。

三星電子等科技股漲多壓回,韓國KOSPI指數週四下跌0.43%至2106.66點。繼昨日創下收盤歷史新高後,三星電子今日開盤回跌1%。

台股昨天站上9000點大關後,今天開低後震盪走低,不過仍力守9000點,下跌63.85點至以9022.17點收市。澳洲股市下跌1.06%。

東南亞股市也是一片墨黑,下跌介於0.82%至1.88%,印尼股市跌幅最大,截至3時40分挫1.88%。

亞洲貨幣下跌

中國緊縮擔憂也衝擊亞洲貨幣,兌美元全面下跌,韓元領跌,下跌0.7%,菲律賓比索下跌0.4%,新元下跌0.5%,印尼盾跌0.3%。




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Source/转贴/Extract/: biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:20/01/11

DBS: PST Look forward to DPU growth

Pacific Shipping Trust
Look forward to DPU growth
BUY US$0.37
Price Target : US$ 0.40 (Prev. US$0.37)

At a Glance
• No surprises in 4Q DPU of 0.809 UScts; amounted to ~75% of distributable cash flow
• 3 rounds of acquisitions announced in FY10; we expect 11% DPU growth in FY11 and 14% in FY12
• Maintain BUY for 10% yield and 8% upside to higher TP of US$0.40

Comment on Results
Revenue and operating profit in 4Q10 came in 2% q-o-q and 8% y-o-y lower, owing to more off-hire days arising from repairs to the 2 time-chartered vessels. Net cash generated for 4Q10 came in at US$6.4m vs. US$7.0m in 3Q10 due to the expenses related to the abovementioned technical repairs. However, 4Q10 DPU of 0.809 UScts remained largely stable as the Board decided to retain less cash and distribute 75% of distributable income, higher than the 70% payout in preceding quarters.

Outlook & Recommendation
During FY10, PST announced 3 separate acquisition deals to drive growth and diversification of the fleet - two new Capesize bulk carriers for delivery in Sep 2011, 2 MPP vessels for delivery in Sep/Dec 2012 and 5 Supramax bulk carriers for delivery in Nov 2012 – Apr 2013. While pre-delivery payments will be met by residual cash and bridge loans from sponsor PIL, the Trust has already secured about US$150m debt financing for the first two deals at surprisingly high loan-to-value ratios in excess of 80%. Net gearing as at end-FY10 increased to ~1.0x and could hit 1.2x by end-FY11 but we believe an equity issue may be in the offing by FY12.

We remain positive on these yield accretive acquisitions and expect DPU growth of 11-14% in FY11-12, even after accounting for a potential equity issue of US$40-50m in FY12. We like PST for its strong balance sheet and capital structure to take advantage of the opportunities in the shipping cycle and acquire assets at lower capital values with potentially higher asset yields. Our TP is slightly revised to US$0.40 as we adjust our payout ratio assumptions. Maintain BUY for 10% yield and price upside of about 8%.



Source/转贴/Extract/: Publish date:

KE: CCT Deep pockets, but what’s next?

CapitaCommercial Trust
Deep pockets, but what’s next?
Event

􀂃 CapitaCommercial Trust (CCT) reported an FY10 DPU of 7.8 cents, in line with expectations. Net property income declined marginally by 0.4% to $299m despite a 1.3% fall in gross rental income, due to lower OPEX and property tax. We remain cautious in view of the possible downward pressure on rents when more of the new supply comes on‐stream. Maintain HOLD.

Our View
􀂃 CCT’s Grade A office space continues to enjoy full occupancy as of end‐2010, but Six Battery Road suffered a 3% drop in gross revenue due to negative rental reversion. Management alluded that some of its existing tenants require space for expansion, but we remain mindful that nearly half of the new office supply coming on‐stream in 2011 has yet to be committed, which may limit CCT’s pricing power when it comes to seeking new tenants or retaining existing ones. 􀂃 After accumulating a warchest of more than $700m from the divestment of Robinson Point and Starhub Centre last year, CCT will pare down $242.6m of debt, saving about $7m of interest expense per year. CCT is exploring various refinancing options for its remaining debt, possibly by taking longer‐maturity loans of five years or more.

􀂃 The management intends to hold on to the remaining cash of about $535m for potential acquisitions. CCT has a potential investment capacity of $1.6b at its disposal, assuming a gearing of 40%. However, with other office buildings transacting at cap rates of 4% or less, it remains a challenge for CCT to find attractive acquisitions.

Action & Recommendation
While CCT has done well to maintain occupancy rates for now, it remains to be seen if it will be at the expense of softening rents when more International Grade A space gets completed in 2011 and 2012 (increasing the office stock in the Central region by nearly 3% p.a.). Maintain HOLD with a DDM‐derived target price of $1.25.

Source/转贴/Extract/: Kim Eng Research
Publish date:20/01/11

DMG: CCT Paring down of Debt

CapitaCommercial Trust: Paring down of Debt; Acquisition remains focus (NEUTRAL, S$1.52, TP S$1.60)

4Q10 results in line with expectations. CCT reported 4Q10 DPU of 1.94¢. FY10 DPU rose 11% to 7.83¢, in line with our estimates. Net property income was down marginally 0.4% due to smaller portfolio size (after sale of 2 assets in 2010), mitigated by lower operating expenses and higher rental income from remaining assets. We raise our DPU estimates by about 3%, taking into consideration the paring down of debt and higher occupancy at Wilkie Edge, and TP correspondingly to S$1.60. Maintain NEUTRAL. Stock yield of 4.8% is unattractive compared to its pre-crisis yield of 4.1% in 2007.

Leasing activities gaining buoyancy; tenants are expanding. CCT’s portfolio committed occupancies improve to 99.3% (98.2% in 3Q10) while its Grade A offices attained close to 100% occupancy (99.9%), up from 99.8% in 3Q10. On 6 Battery Road, which is undergoing asset enhancement works, CCT reported 52% of 65,600 sq ft that was expected to be upgraded and available in 2011 has been pre-leased. While rental reversions remain negative in 2011, the strong recovery in office rents will alleviate the extent of negative rental reversion.

Utilization of S$731m cash pile. CCT announced that S$243m of debt will be paid down, reducing gearing from 31.5% to 27%. While CCT has plenty of dry powder (cash balance S$335m, debt headroom of S$1.1b), acquisitions would only be positive for the stock if CCT does not over pay. Another possible rerating catalyst would be the redevelopment of Market Street Car Park.

Maintain NEUTRAL, with our DDM-backed TP of S$1.60. We believe the strong rental outlook is largely priced in, and announcements of yield accretive acquisitions or developments are necessary for the next leg of re-rating.

Source/转贴/Extract/: DMG
Publish date:20/01/11

DBS: No surprises in Pacific Shipping Trust’s 4Q DPU

No surprises in Pacific Shipping Trust’s 4Q DPU of 0.809 UScts, which amounted to ~75% of distributable cash flow. PST announced three rounds of acquisitions in FY10. We expect 11% DPU growth in FY11 and 14% in FY12, with yield of about 9.8% in FY11. Maintain BUY at a slightly higher TP of US$0.40 (Prev. US$0.37).

Source/转贴/Extract/: DBS Group Research
Publish date:20/01/11

DBS: CCT The hunt for opportunities

CapitaCommercial Trust
HOLD S$1.53
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.57 (Prev S$ 1.47)

The hunt for opportunities
continues
• 4Q10 results in line.
• Operating environment remains robust. On look-out for investment opportunities.
• TP raised to $1.57 on higher DPU, maintain Hold for limited upside.

Within expectations. 4Q10 DPU of 1.94cts was down 3% qoq but up 4% yoy, bringing FY10 DPU to 7.83cts. Revenue and NPI fell 7% qoq to $92.1m and $70.9m respectively, due to sale of Starhub Centre. Impact was partially mitigated by higher portfolio occupancy of 99.3%. The group booked in a portfolio revaluation gain of c$228m, thanks to a 10-25bps cap rate compression, boosting book NAV to $1.47. As a result, gearing has declined to 28.6%. We have tweaked our FY11 DPU marginally up to c6.9cts, taking into account the continued strong momentum in the office leasing market and jump in occupancy at Wilkie Edge to 98.4%. Our TP is revised accordingly to $1.57. We maintain our Hold call given the limited 7.1% total return upside. Stock is offering 4.5% FY11 yield or 180bps spread above long bond yield.

Leasing activities are buoyant but negative reversions still anticipated in 2011. The group leased/ recontracted 360ksf of space in 4Q, bringing full year activity to 920ksf. Take up came from both new and expansion demand from business and financial sectors. The 65600sf at 6 Battery Rd, which is undergoing AEI works, has already achieved 52% commitments. We expect spot office rents to rise a further 5-10% in FY11, thanks to robust economic activity. However, CCT is likely to feel the impact of negative reversions, albeit narrowing, as expiring leases in its 4 major buildings averaged $13.77psf/mth, compared to current market rates of c$10-12psf.

Focus on investment opportunities in Spore. Management has made clear its plans to focus on investment opportunities in Spore, particularly Grade A office space in the CBD as well as potential value creation within its portfolio. Assuming a 40% leverage ratio, it will have investment capacity of S$1.6b. We believe redevelopment of Market St carpark could be one of these value-add possibilities and will view this as a re-rating catalyst for the stock.

Source/转贴/Extract/: DBS Group Research
Publish date:20/01/11

今年集装箱运输需求料只有去年一半

(2011-01-20)
新加坡路透电)业界人士透露,2011年集装箱运输业的需求增长将放慢至去年的一半,2010年因新兴市场消费买气兴旺,全球集装箱运输业取得双位数的增长。

  集装箱运输业快速地从2008年至2009年的环球经济衰退中复苏,国际货币基金组织形容这两年是“贸易大崩解”(Great Trade Collapse),因为业务严重放缓,海运业的亏损预计达195亿美元。
  海运咨询机构Alphaliner分析师陈华裕说:“补充存货及消费者需求从2009年的低水平复苏,是2010年需求增长的原因。”

  “由于需求趋势大致回到正常水平,这种增长今年不会再现。”

  根据Alphaliner的数据,世界经济活动的主要指标——集装箱运输业的需求增长,将会从去年的14%放缓到7.7%。

  这与国际货币基金组织去年10月预测全球贸易在2010年跳涨11.4%后,今年将增长11.4%的一致。两年前,全球贸易在经济衰退时萎缩11%。

  需求下降会加剧集装箱运输业供过于求的问题,这阻止船运公司将较高的船运费转嫁给消费者,许多船运公司在去年转亏为盈。

  分析师说,在新型及较大的集装箱货船投入使用后,今年的供应增长预计会超过需求2%。

  陈华裕说:“集装箱货运费自2010年8月以来已下跌,主要是因为供过于求,船运公司并没有在淡季撤销过剩的运载量。”

  过去四个月的利用效率仍低于关键的95%水平之下,这显示货运费不太可能会上升。
由于这样,一些船运公司尝试锁定常年合约的价码,从上周每20英尺标准箱货运费约1350美元下跌低至1050美元。

  经纪公司GFI Group在其每周集装箱简报中说:“我们相信货运费会继续下跌,但下到什么程度却无法预知。”

  船运咨询公司Drewry上周说,集装箱船的盈利今年预料会下跌至80亿美元。

Source/转贴/Extract/: 《联合早报》
Publish date:20/01/11

OCBC: CCT All the right moves

All the right moves; poised to benefit from rental recovery

CapitaCommercial Trust (CCT) announced 4Q10 DPU of 1.94 S cents. It has so far made all the rights moves and is poised to benefit from rental recovery. In previous reports, we were concerned that CCT’s excess cash on the balance sheet could result in a cash drag, especially in this persistently low interest environment. In light of no further acquisition in sight, we were delighted that CCT had chosen to pare down its debt in 4Q10. We were also impressed that the manager was able to uplift Wikie Edge’s occupancy from 78.4% in 3Q10 to 98.4% in 4Q10. According to our estimates, Grade A office rents will hit S$10.50 psfpm in 2011, more than S$11 psfpm in 2012 and above S$12 psfpm in 2013. We thus forecast CCT to continue to experience negative rent reversions in 2011, but this should change in 2012. With its near 100% occupancy and active leasing strategy, CCT is poised to benefit from the rental upside ahead. We thus upgrade CCT’s rating to BUY, with a RNAV-derived fair value of S$1.61 (10.3% total returns)

Estimated 4Q10 DPU of 1.94 S cents. CCT’s 4Q10 gross revenue of S$92.1m dropped 10.8% YoY and 5.8% QoQ. Similarly, NPI fell 11.4% YoY and 7.08% QoQ to S$70.9m. Estimated 4Q10 DPU is 1.94 S cents, which is 3.2% above 4Q09 DPU of 1.88 S cents. The income declines were largely driven by the loss of rental income following the divestments of Robinson Point and Starhub Centre. There were also elements of negative rent reversion, as the expiring leases were contracted during the highs of 2007-2008.

All the right moves. In previous reports, we were concerned that CCT’s excess cash on the balance sheet could result in a cash drag, especially in this persistently low interest environment. In light of no further acquisition in sight, we were delighted that CCT had chosen to pare down its debt in 4Q10. It has prepaid its S$142.6m term loan, expiring in Jun 2012, using existing cash balance in Dec and will be repaying another S$100m MTN maturing on 24-Jan 2011. Following this, its gearing will be lowered to 27% from 31.5%. The prepayment has also unencumbered another of its assets (HSBC Building), increasing CCT’s number of unsecured assets to 7 out of 9. We continue to like CCT’s prudent capital management. It is able to maintain financial flexibility by having a large portfolio of unencumbered assets and reasonably low gearing, and yet having the nimbleness to acquisition growth opportunities when these arise. Assuming a gearing of 40%, CCT now has additional debt headroom of S$1.2B, which it can focus on investment opportunities. The challenge, however, lies in sourcing for yield-accretive Grade-A office acquisitions. Capital values of CBD office space have appreciated some 20%-25% YoY, on the back of heated investment sales , which some argued were driven by the conversion of office to residential use.

Positive rent reversion after 2011. CCT’s portfolio occupancy improved to 99.3%, from 94.8% a year ago. We were particularly impressed that the manager was able to uplift Wikie Edge’s occupancy from 78.4% in 3Q10 to 98.4% in 4Q10. According to our estimates, Grade A office rents will hit S$10.50 psfpm in 2011, more than S$11 psfpm in 2012 and above S$12 psfpm in 2013. We thus forecast CCT to continue to experience negative rent reversions in 2011 , but this should change in 2012. With its near 100% occupancy and active leasing strategy, CCT is poised to benefit from the rental upside ahead. We thus upgrade CCT’s rating to BUY, with a RNAV-derived fair value of S$1.61 (10.3% total returns)


Source/转贴/Extract/: OCBC Investment Research
Publish date:20/01/11

準備迎接高通膨!

Created 01/20/2011 - 12:20
全球天災地難接踵而來,從澳洲昆士蘭省水災、斯里蘭卡洪災、巴西土石流等,加上歐美較早的暴風雪,幕幕令人觸目驚心,人民生活在水深火熱當中,更令人深深感受大馬生活的安裕與幸福。

在災難連連的艱難環境,如果有人以黃金和你換番薯,相信你可能會毫不猶豫的選擇可以讓人活命和溫飽的番薯。

在災難當前的惡劣環境生存,食物成為非常珍貴及讓人活命的必需品,從災難國家發生的超市食品架子被人搶購一空,就可深深體會食物在國家患難時刻顯得特別貴重。

儘管發生天災的國家目前未淪落至以黃金來換食物,但是,災難引發的糧食供應短缺,是無可否認的,進而引爆食品的物價高漲。

昆士蘭除了是澳洲的主要煤礦區,也是澳洲的主要種植區與供應地區,一場洪災,引發澳洲通貨膨脹的隱憂,在所難免。

不只澳洲,全球天災導致糧食短缺,價格飆漲,許多國家的糧食通膨率已高達雙位數,通膨的升溫,刺激保護主義,甚至可能使2008年的糧食危機引發暴動的慘況重演。

聯合國糧農組織(FAO)較早透露,多种糧食上月創下新高,已高過2008年在埃及、喀麥隆、海地等國引發暴動時的水平。砂糧和肉類價格漲至1990年該署紀錄以來的最高點。而小麥、稻米、玉米和其他穀物價格,也達到2008年以來的最高峰。

印尼重要香辛料的價格,去年已暴漲5倍,印度糧價也創下一年多的新高,去年12月25日為止的一週,糧價年增率高達18.32%。

巴基斯坦則因洋蔥價格上漲一倍,切斷和印度的陸路洋蔥交易;中國各大城市的糧漲風也相當猛烈,去年11月糧價年增率高達11.7%,穀價也再漲升。

大馬的食品主要依賴進口,在全球狂吹食品漲風前提下,我國的食品價格騰漲已成定局,加上政府有意削減食品和燃油津貼等,更加劇國內的通膨風。

美國量化寬鬆政策,導致外資涌入區域和大馬,引起大馬資產似乎走向泡沫化,也進一步加劇通膨的氣勢。

大馬許多食品,在農曆新年前後陸續上漲,加上其他原料和原產品價格的節節上漲,接下來引發的連鎖百物高漲,勢所難免。

國行對外圍環境造成的通膨風,或是成本導向的通膨,似乎是有點束手無策。

國行一向利用利率政策對抗通膨,但以現有低迷的經濟環境,升息等於扼殺脆弱的經濟,因此,在短期內,升息的可能性不大。

再者,升息對成本導向的通膨效果不大,因為這是超越政府控制範圍的通膨,若國行升息,反而進一步削弱產品需求量,對抑制通膨不但無效,另一邊廂卻拖累購買力,這或許是國行不想看到的。

當然,國行或許可以訴諸匯率政策,就像新加坡,把匯率上調,以抑制通膨,但是,馬幣去年漲勢約11%,是漲幅第二高的區域貨幣,馬幣今年漲勢似乎仍然勢不可擋,至今已漲1%,兌美元近日已漲破3.05令吉的水平,創下13年新高,而且會繼續走漲。

馬幣幣值繼續出高,對出口不利,這也是大部份區域國家抑制貨幣進一步增值的因由,幸好馬幣升漲的同時,區域貨幣也增值,對大馬的出口競爭力,或影響不大。

再者,大馬是實行一攬子管理浮動匯率,因此,若使用匯率遏制通膨,將限制馬幣管理的靈活度,這或許也是國行不想看到的。

當然,國行還有另一招殺手鐧,即調高目前已處歷史新低的1%法定儲備率,以管制市場四處竄動的游資,進而間接壓抑通膨,但實質效果如何,仍有待觀察。

當然,政府方面可以通過增加供應、調低稅率、或是加強監督和執法商家趁機賺暴利的情況,或許也有助抑制通膨的轉劣。

總而言之,國行目前徘徊於抑制通膨和拉動經濟成長之間的十字路口,但市場一般相信,國行會先救經濟多過抑通膨,因此,老百姓似乎還需挨一段高通膨的苦日子。

Source URL: http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/43235


Source/转贴/Extract/: Publish date:

Former computer maker IPC morphs into vulture property investor

Patrick Ngiam, CEO of IPC Corp, is surrounded by relics of the company’s glorious past. His office is cluttered with photos, medals and newspaper clippings dating back to the early 1990s, when IPC was the largest maker of personal computers in Singapore.

Things haven’t gone well for Ngiam since then, though. As the PC business grew increasingly competitive, IPC attempted to find the next big thing in the technology sector.
It tried to get into video-on-demand systems and mobile phones, among other things, but these ventures failed to take off and IPC was soon saddled with debts it was unable to pay off. By 1999, deep into the Asian financial crisis, the company’s subsidiary Corex Technology went into judicial management. IPC has since sorted out its financial affairs, but it is still a shadow of its former self, with its shares hovering at just 13.5 cents versus more than $2 in 1994.

Now, Ngiam sees IPC rising like a phoenix from the ashes as it rides the asset-inflation trend unfolding around the world. IPC has recast itself as a property consultant, developer and investor with footholds in China and Japan. It is also picking through the wreckage of the US property bust for bargains. These moves appear to be paying off. For the nine months ended Sept 30, 2010, revenue was up 665% to $17.6 million and the company reported earnings of $1.8 million versus losses of $3.6 million over the same period last year.

IPC’s move into the property sector was something of an accident. According to Ngiam, the company obtained a plot of land in 1998 as payment for the divestment of an electronics manufacturing venture in China. As it happened, the land was located in the booming city of Zhuhai, the gateway of mainland China to Macau. “We could have sold the land but we saw the opportunity to develop it,” Ngiam says. “We wanted to obtain the experience necessary to become a developer.”

IPC went on to develop a residential-cum-commercial property on a 170,000 sq m plot of land. Called Costa del Sol, it comprises a 1,600-unit apartment, a 206-room four-star hotel with shops and a clubhouse. All the apartments are sold and IPC is now marketing the hotel with shops and clubhouse.

Emboldened by his success in Zhuhai, Ngiam began to hatch plans to take on more development projects. IPC considered developing a commercial and residential development in China’s Yantai City. It also looked at developing a 629-unit condominium in Bangkok, but the global financial crisis forced Ngiam to change tack. Instead of starting new development projects in fast-growing Asian countries, he began hunting for distressed property assets in more mature markets to purchase.

Big in Japan
In August 2008, IPC started researching the property market in Japan. “We did a proper review and study of the Japanese economy. It took us about eight months,” says Ngiam. In June 2009, IPC bought a newly-built apartment block in Tsukuba from a developer for ¥520 million ($8.07 million). Working together with local partners, IPC managed to sell all 51 of the apartment units.

The company went on to acquire another newly-built block of unsold apartments in Tsuchiura for ¥190 million in March last year. It also bought a 77-unit apartment block in Uraga for ¥1.45 billion in April that is due to be completed in 1H2011.

IPC has also been investing in hotels in Japan. In June last year, it acquired a 96-room hotel in Asakusa and a 112-room hotel in Asagaya for ¥1.87 billion. And just last month, it picked up a 208-room hotel in Okayama for ¥711 million. The first two hotels are managed by Hospitality Partners Group, which manages the Smile Hotel chain in Japan, while the hotel in Okayama is managed by KK Greens, which operates hotels under the “Comfort” brand.

Ngiam says IPC is looking to acquire more business hotels in Japan’s major cities, which have the potential to attract more foreign tourists. From January to November last year, 7.96 million foreigners visited Japan for leisure, up 29.2 % over the same period last year. This comes after Japan eased tourist visa requirements for individual Chinese travellers in July 2010.

As for the residential property sector, Ngiam says the stockpile of distressed projects in Japan is fast depleting with the global recovery. As such, IPC is more likely to develop new apartments in Japan instead of purchasing them for resale. However, this may require more working capital as the turnaround period for the development of its own properties is about two to three years versus six to eight months for distressed properties, says Ngiam.

Heading to the West
In the meantime, IPC is scouting around for opportunities among distressed properties in the US. In October 2009, it established Palladio Properties to buy and sell foreclosure properties. So far, the company has purchased several single-family residential units commonly known as landed homes in Orange County, California, home to tourist attractions like Disneyland and Knott’s Berry Farm.

“We have to ensure that prices in the particular state are bottoming out and that there is demand for houses. Otherwise, the risk is just too high,” says Ngiam, describing IPC’s hunt for investment prospects. “In the US, there is an abundance of foreclosure assets in every state. You just have to choose the right state to enter into.”

Ngiam is, however, less confident about making long-term commitments in China’s real-estate market, though. Hence, the company will maintain its foothold there as a con-sultant and opportunistic investor rather than a developer, he says. “In China, they don’t talk about small buildings, they talk about townships. And also, regulations from the central government are very erratic. I see it as high risk.”

Ngiam founded IPC in 1985 with his brother Benjamin. The company originally sold point-of-sale systems that allow stores to keep track of products sold and manage their inventories. It later became a maker of PCs. It also went into providing thin computing solutions and the education business. After making a strategic decision to focus on property in 2007, the company began selling its other businesses.

In 2008, it sold a 74.8% stake in Thinsoft for HK$86.25 million ($14.6 million) and last year, IPC sold the remaining 39.9% stake in Nanyang Institute of Management for $997,500. Ngiam explains that IPC chose to focus on the property segment as the business at Thinsoft did not pick up to the targeted volume, while the education business was seen as less attractive in terms of creating shareholder value. Ngiam says: “If you have holding power, [property] prices tend to see an upward trend over a period of time.”

Does the company have enough capital to become a significant property player? Does Ngiam — who made a name for himself in the technology sector — have what it takes to succeed in the property business?

“We are able to adapt,” he says, noting that IPC’s core management team has remained intact. “From a management and strategic stand-point, there is no difference between the PC or property business.

The same set of [business] principles applies.” Ngiam adds that the focus on property is not an opportunistic move but part of a long-term strategy to concentrate on a core
business to generate good share-holder returns.

To ensure that the company does not overstretch itself again, Ngiam says the company has risk management criteria that limit the amount of capital it allocates to various investments. As at Sept 30, IPC had a cash balance of $62 million and borrowings of $51 million. To fund its growth plans, Ngiam says the company is open to raising more funds through debt or equity, but the company has sufficient financial resources for “immediate acquisitions”.

Shares in IPC are down 12% over the past 12 months. They are currently trading at 0.5 times its book value of 26.65 cents per share. Ngiam and his family own 16.37% of the company, while asset trader Oei Hong Leong holds an 18.2% stake.

Source/转贴/Extract/: The Edge Singapore
Publish date:17/01/11

和黄港口业务拟赴新上市 港交所受香港媒体围攻

香港首富李嘉诚的和记黄埔(Hutchison Whampoa)要分拆旗下广东和香港的港口业务到新加坡交易所(SGX)以信托形式上市的消息,昨天香港各大报章媒体广泛和突出报道,一方面肯定新交所的争气长进,一方面狠批香港股票交易所的抱残守缺、不进则退。

  有香港报章报道指“新交所虽然没有香港背靠祖国的得天独厚优势,但表现十分积极,相对之下,港交所不进则退”;也有报章批评说,和黄“舍港赴星”,因香港“欠规管守则”;有社论更批评“香港官僚僵化必须改革”,“眼看在香港上市的‘肥肉’眼睁睁飞走,对所谓的国际大都会,更是一大讽刺。”

  和黄要分拆在新交所上市的和记港口控股信托(Hutchison Port Holdings Trust),不仅因为要筹措的资金可能高达60亿美元,可能是新交所历来迎接的最大宗首次公开售股上市(IPO),也因为是以商业信托(business trust)形式,港交所未有相关守则,因此不容许商业信托上市,让这个门前的大宗上市被新加坡抢去。

报道多指是个警钟

  多数香港报道指这是个警钟,港交所势必面对巨大压力作出改革。香港的一名资产管理经理则表示“新加坡这次赢了”。

  香港权威的《信报》财经新闻昨日头条报道说,对于和黄这个突然的宣布,市场分析,这并非长和系(长江实业与和记黄埔)首次分拆业务在新加坡上市。分析也指“新交所虽然没有香港背靠祖国的得天独厚优势,但表现十分积极,相对之下,港交所不进则退。”

  如果市场推测的60亿美元筹资金额最终实现,这将不只是新加坡,也是东南亚历来最大宗的IPO项目。

  和黄前天发布该计划时,表示香港没有商业信托上市守则。香港证监会回应“会参考新加坡的做法,研究发展其他信托基金(港交所已有房地产信托上市守则),但暂时无时间表”。

  信报指出,香港仅凭吸引中国大陆企业上市的优势,去年便蝉联全球最大IPO市场宝座;新交所则面临严峻的调整,不少原本在新交所挂牌的大陆企业,例如四环医药、敏华控股,选择除牌并改到香港上市,也有如亚洲果业,从新加坡到香港第二上市。“不过,新交所近来动作频频,表现积极进取,把自己定位为通往亚洲的门户,期望成为亚太金融中心。”这包括投入巨资提升交易系统,速度较香港快100倍,并将取代伦敦成为世界最快的交易引擎。

  新交所去年底还宣布要以84亿澳元收购澳大利亚交易所(ASX),引起市场关注。新交所在信托基金方面也较香港更成熟完善,早在2003年便率先推出房地产信托基金,长江实业随即分拆置富产业信托在新上市,直至去年4月才回归香港挂牌(以介绍形式在港上市)。

  该报也指出,在总交易时间方面,新加坡也领先港交所,3月1日起将取消午休时间,从上午9时交易至下午5时,总共8小时。港交所经漫长咨询方能于3月7日起,把交易时间延长至5小时。

  《香港经济日报》也在要闻版报道此消息,并评论指出和黄“舍港赴星”,因香港“欠规管守则”。虽然香港证监会表示“没有时间表”,该报引述摩根士丹利亚太区股票承销部主管贺则天指出,相信港交所有能力发展商业信托的模式,甚至做得更好,追上新加坡的竞争力,“但和黄今天的公布,难免提醒港交所中人,应优先处理(这个事项)。”

  该报指出,早在2006、07年间,投资银行界已向证监会建议香港应该引入相关规管守则,但证监会基于需求不大而没积极回应。除了证监会制定相关守则之外,也需港府在税例及公司法作修订配合。

香港官僚僵化须改革

  《成报》社评则批和黄分拆事件,香港官僚僵化必须改革。它指有证券商直言,“和黄分拆港口业务到新加坡上市,等同插了香港一刀;更有人质疑是否‘走资’。”据它了解,之前和黄有意让该业务在港上市,向证监会提出要求修订房地产信托法规(上市守则),但证监会振振有词表示,不会为个别事件作评论,更不能为一个公司的上市而更改法规。因此,如果香港规管环境改变,和黄表示会考虑回香港上市。该社评认为,香港证监会看似“秉公执法”,其实是“既官僚,又僵化,更愚蠢。”它说:“眼看在香港上市的‘肥肉’眼睁睁飞走,对所谓的国际大都会,更是一大讽刺。”而且,香港不是第一次这样,2003年置富被逼到新加坡上市,便是一例。

  彭博社报道安本资产管理公司在香港的一名资产管理经理这么说:“你可以说,新加坡这次赢了。这肯定会提振新加坡市场。”


Source/转贴/Extract/: 《联合早报》
Publish date:20/01/11

Undervalued stocks: Seeking discounts in the stock market run-up

Stocks that are trading at a discount to their book values could make an appearance at the maturing stage of this bull market, which has risen steadily for nearly 24 months.

Most property stocks are currently trading at premiums to their net asset values. At $1.66, however, upscale properties developer Ho Bee Investments is still trading at a 10.7% discount to NAV after a 3.7% run-up last week.

Ho Bee’s underperformance is probably linked to its 3Q2010 results — net profit slid 61% y-o-y to $38.8 million on the back of a 53% decline in revenue to $98.9 million. Analysts attribute this to lower recognition of residential revenue, which fell 55% to $90.2 million, owing to the high base in 3Q2009.

In a report last year, DBS Vickers believes Ho Bee’s profits should rebound. “Going forward, Ho Bee’s medium-term earnings growth would be underpinned by additional sales and billings from ongoing residential projects such as Turquoise, The Orange Grove, Orange Grove Residences and Seascape as well as the yet-tobe launched Pinnacle Collection,” states DBS Vickers. The brokerage has a revalued net asset value estimate of $2.70 and a price target of $2.20 for the stock.

Other asset plays trading at between 27% and 34% below their book NAVs are hotel stocks Orchard Parade Holdings, Hotel Grand Central and Hotel Royal. Of the three, Orchard Parade Holdings is the most widely followed while Hotel Grand Central and Hotel Royal made net losses in 3Q2010. Orchard Parade Holdings, 58%-owned by Far East Organisation, has commercial and office assets in Singapore and Malaysia. These include offices and retail space within Orchard Parade Hotel, Albert Court Village Hotel and Central Square. In 3Q2010, Orchard Parade Holdings’ net profits doubled to $22.5 million owing to recognition from the sale of units at The Floridian and from its hospitality business.

Some construction-related stocks are also trading below NAV. Lion Teck Chiang is trading at a 50% discount to its book value. This undervaluation could be attributed to net profits tumbling 59% to just $813,000 for the July to September quarter (the company’s 1Q2011.) The steel stockist and supplier of steel reinforcement bars managed to clinch two jobs at the $5 billion Marina Coastal Expressway project and another one at the multi-billion dollar construction of Downtown Line 2. In addition, the company has developed some cluster housing at Crescent Road, and owns a bunch of industrial buildings off Arumugam Road. Its major shareholder is the Cheng family, which also controls Bursa Malaysia-listed Lion Group (formerly Amalgamated Steel Mills).

Lum Chang Holdings, a construction turned- property company, is trading at a 22% discount to NAV. In 2009, the company was awarded the contract to build the Bukit Panjang Station along Downtown Line 2 and its associated tunnels for $504.5 million after the Land Transport Authority exercised two options for the contract for $52 million. Lum Chang was also awarded a $119.4 million contract to build executive condominiums in Sengkang and it is developing Esparina Residences near Buangkok MRT with Frasers Centrepoint.

Perhaps, the company with one of the largest discounts to NAV of 58% is Auric Pacific Group. It manufactures and distributes food products such as Sunshine and Top-One sliced bread, SCS Butter and Buttercup dairy spread and margarine products. It also owns the Délifrance chain of cafés and Food Junction food courts. Auric Pacific is 49%-owned by the Lippo Group. Stephen Riady, executive chairman of Overseas Union Enterprise and the face of the Lippo Group in Singapore, is also a board member and executive director of Auric.

So, for investors just entering the market, it’s still not too late — if you know where to look.

Source/转贴/Extract/: The Edge Singapore
Publish date: 17/01/11

Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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