Saturday, January 8, 2011

综指一周挺涨53点 马股走势续受看好

二零一一年一月八日 晚上六时四十八分


(吉隆坡8日讯)由于投资者对全球经济复苏看好,资金的流入,加上华人新年前夕的积压需求带动下,预料下周大马交易所的股市走势会持续向上挺升。

据证券研究行称,市场充满着一连串股市走势挺升的带动,这使到市场股价蠢蠢欲动,包括即将举行的大选。

在本周刚刚结束的交易中,富时大马吉隆坡综合指数自2011年在首日交易中,便稳步保持在历史最高水平上。

在星期五的交易中,金融与可食用油的相关股票与通讯公司股项成为焦点。

一些股项在投资者小心翼翼的套利下而温和下跌,但却被强大的支撑情绪下,而被良好吸纳。

在刚刚结束的交易中,今年1月5日的交易最令人注目,股价成交额高达36亿9000万令吉,这较17年前同一天的股价成交额55亿6700万令吉新高相差不多。

在本星期交易中,马来亚银行成为众人的焦点,它献议以19亿令吉收购新加坡证券行金英控股有限公司的44.6%股权,该公司股价在星期五收市时挂9.00令吉,较一天前的股价跌1仙。

中国运动鞋制造商麦斯威控股于星期四上市时挂56仙,较其发售价溢价2仙。

该公司股价在本周收市时微升0.5仙至57仙。

富时大马吉隆坡综合指数本周五收市时创下历史性新高达1572.21点,较上星期四收市时的1518.91点挺涨53.3点或3.5%。该指数在本周交易中最高点一度达到1576.95点。

至于本周富时大马全股指数较上周高涨416.89点达10791.87点,而富时大马创业板指数乃挺涨144.90点报4492.46点。

金融指数在本周交易中,较前期高涨559.69点挂14416.01点,工商指数挺涨96.11点报2929.06点,种植股攀升212.18点至8248.43点。

本周股票成交额由上星期的36亿2400万股挺至107亿股,而价格成交量由前期的53亿5500万令吉扬升至152亿5500万令吉。

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.kwongwah.com.my
Publish date:08/01/11

農曆新年前漲潮效應帶動‧馬股料能“再下一城”

Created 01/08/2011 - 18:07

展望

馬股上週走勢沸騰,無論是藍籌股或中小型股都“翩翩起舞”,讓全場樂翻天,預計本週在農曆新年前漲潮效應帶動下,馬股將能夠“再下一城”繼續往前衝。

中小型股仍可接棒

不過,由於漲勢過快,不排除本週將面臨短暫性的調整,若藍籌股的衝力放緩,相信中小型股仍可接棒持續參與這場“接力賽”,預計成交量可維持在20億股以上。

雖然外資逐漸湧進新興市場,包括大馬,不過仍未趨高,預計接下來外資持股水平有望挺升,擴大馬股的潛在漲升空間。

外圍方面,受到良好的經濟數據支撐,包括美國失業率降至9.4%,寫下超過1年的低點,加上聯儲局指祭出第三波量化寬鬆政策的可能性不大,更為市場注入經濟復甦的信心。

1600點為強勁阻力

從技術層面而言,預計本週富時綜指將在1550點尋求首道扶持,一旦跌破,下一道強力支持水平料落在1530點;至於首道阻力水平則相信是1580點,不過若成功突破,料會在1600點遇上另一道阻力。

儘管馬股逐漸試探1600點,不過市場認為還須一段時間凝聚火力才能攻破,料短期內1600點仍是強勁的阻力;一旦衝破這道重要的心理關口,馬股有望再度往北“發功”,邁入新經濟週期,上看1700點大關。

隨全球經濟逐漸改善,作為經濟探熱針的銀行股將率先領跑,投資者可趁低買進估值廉宜的銀行股。

此外,受大選舉行在即的效應驅動,政府相關公司股料獲投資者追捧;至於國內外活絡的基建市場,也對建材股帶來激勵作用,前景備受看好。

回顧

開年首週
日日改寫新高

闊別2010年全年的19.34%漲幅,2011年馬股開年首週即“鋒芒畢露”,在外資湧進及大選效應支撐下,全週出現“五連漲”

一連突破幾道重要關卡,共取得3.51%漲勢,且天天改寫新高紀錄,週四更創下盤中最高1576.95點。

創下超過19個月新高

外圍經濟看俏,市場情緒樂觀激勵投資者紛紛進場、外資大舉買進銀行股,全場齊共舞,馬股每天的成交量都幾乎突破20億股,週五更寫下25億3千632萬4千股,創下超過19個月新高。

企業消息方面,馬來亞銀行(MAYBANK,1155,主板金融組)以17億9千萬新元(42億6千萬令吉),全面收購新加坡第二大證券行金英控股(KimEng Holding),顯示拓展東盟市場的野心。

另外,市場盛傳柔佛機構旗下3家公司的主席丹斯里莫哈末阿里哈欣遭罷黜,主要涉嫌放假消息表示要脫售QSR品牌(QSR,9415,主板貿服組),並涉及操縱股價。

全週收市時,富時大馬綜指起53.30點或3.51%至1572.21點,富時大馬全股項指數起416.89點至10791.87點,富時大馬創業板指數也揚144.9點至4492.46點。

全週總成交量成功突破100億關口,達107億零596萬8千股,總值152億5千924萬令吉,大幅超越前期的36億2千400萬股,總值53億5千500萬令吉。


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Source/转贴/Extract/: biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:08/01/11

併購熱力未減‧小資本產業股看漲

Created 01/08/2011 - 14:33

(吉隆坡7日訊)產業領域上半年併購熱潮動力未減,政府多項發展計劃有望將產業推向投資者雷達,加上2011年開年股市氛圍良好,今日產業股被相中,尤其小資本產業股被看好掀起另一股併購風,成功擠入最大漲幅及熱門榜,驚艷全場。

怡克偉士(EKOVEST,8877,主板建筑組)因積極爭取大馬依斯干達特區及巴生河流域價值20億令吉的發展計劃,全日受投資者追捧。

該股今日一度被推高33仙至3令吉零2仙,最終漲幅雖收窄,仍以2令吉96仙作收,漲27仙,成全場第四大漲幅股。

由於去年下半年產業走勢在併購風推波助瀾下表現亮眼,這股動力仍未完全釋放,再加上政府多項大型發展計劃背書,促使產業股都被輪番炒作,股價頗有斬獲。

達南交投熾熱

達南(TALAM,2259,主板產業組)被投資者熱炒,全天交投熾熱,共有6千814萬零700股股票易手,成為全場第二熱門股項。收市掛9.5仙,挫0.5仙或5%。

其餘兩家小型產業公司也不惶多讓,紛紛擠入最活躍股項榜單。其中加拉布乃(KBUNAI,3115,主板產業組)收市掛21仙,成交量達3千890萬7千100股。馬化國際(MULPHA,3905,主板貿服組)則以63.5仙收盤,共4千196萬7千800股股票易手。

UEM置地受外資看好

合併後的U E M置地(UEMLAND,5148,主板產業組)受外資點名看好,趁勢而上,最高攀升16仙至3令吉零6仙,全天以2令吉89仙收盤,跌1仙或0.34%。

美景控股(METROK,6114,主板產業組)及宣佈大型產業計劃的霹靂機構(PRKCORP,8346,主板貿服組)也搭上輪流炒“順風車”,終場分別起9及5仙。

實達之前漲勢太高

不過,實達集團(SPSETIA,8664,主板產業組)卻未能從這股炒風受惠,主要是之前漲勢太高面對套利影響,一度挫8仙至6令吉43仙,唯臨尾反彈,以6令吉45仙收市,起2仙或0.31%。


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Source/转贴/Extract/: biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:08/01/11

Catalysts in store

Saturday January 8, 2011
Catalysts in store
By K.M. LEE
kmlee@thestar.com.my


THE local stock market performance last year was very much in line with our prediction and we all know how spectacular the Tiger was in 2010, which witnessed the energetic bulls staging a massive rally, thus propelling the benchmark FBM Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) to uncharted territory. For that, I hope all was well for everyone, especially the equity players.

Now, we are just several days into 2011 and in less than a month, there is another major celebration on the horizon. Come Feb 3, Chinese around the world would bid farewell to the Year of the Tiger and right away, ushering in a new one, the Year of the Rabbit, also known as the Year of the Hare, that will end on Jan 22, 2012.

As we can see, the Tiger continues to roar on the home turf and riding on the buoyant sentiment, most investors, or rather believers in Chinese astrology reckon the Rabbit, with “metal” element this year, although smaller in size compared to the predecessor, is expected to give the prevailing bull rally extra strength and determination to bring the market to greater heights. Perhaps, the time has come to look forward and contemplate what fortune the Rabbit will bring to us over the next 12 months and the best available resources would be the historical data and the helps of various charting tools.

On record, Bursa Malaysia has seen two rabbit years.

Black Monday spoiler

Tracking back to the distant past of the first 12-year cycle of the Year of the Fire Rabbit from Jan 29, 1987 to Feb 16, 1988, the former Composite Index of the then-Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange, now called Bursa Malaysia FBM KLCI shed a minor 7.95-point, or 2.86%. It kicked off at the 278.37-point line and finished at 270.42-point level.

In spite of the loss, the key index had a pretty good run, lasting slightly more than six months in the early part of the lunar calendar year, which saw the key index scaling to a high of 470.16 points on Aug 10. At that moment, it gained a total of 191.79 points, or 68.9%, which was a continuation of the existing trend, recovering from the 1985 recession.

Thereafter, the market underwent a two-month typical correction phase owing to an apparent profit-taking activity, with the 390 points providing support.

Unfortunately, just when bulls were looking strong enough to resume their scaling in October after a short breather, an unexpected wave of selling pressure triggered by the “black Monday” phenomenon hit global equities and as expected, Bursa Malaysia was not spared. In line with the worldwide downward spiral, the local bourse succumbed to tremendous stress to dive, touching a low of 223.12 on Dec 7.

Though there was some year-end “window-dresssing” activity and bargain hunting nibbling in late trade, helping the market to bounce off the ebb, it was not good enough to lift the key index above the flat line.

Apparently, no one knows what has brought about the “black Monday” sell-off, but people put the fault of the crash on the interplay between stocks and derivatives. Some said it was because of overvalued and others blame it on programme trading.

Recovering from currency crisis

In the last 12-year cycle of the Year of the Earth Rabbit from Feb 16, 1999 to Feb 4, 2000, the landscape appeared much better, with the bellwether FBM KLCI chalking up a handsome gain of 386.87 points, or 67.8%.

The local bourse started out at 570.79 points in correction mode, simply because a pause was very much needed then to neutralise the very over-bought condition of the market following a new leg of strong rally, mending from the Asian currency crisis since early September 1998.

Anyway, it was proven later to be a short breather, as after finding support at the 488.90 points floor on March 25, the local bourse resumed the rally in the wake of fresh buying momentum. The upward thrust lasted more than three months before peaking out temporarily at 870.39 on July 5.

Thereafter, profit-taking activity set in, dragging the major index to a low of 660.23 on Aug 10, followed by range-bound consolidation, lasting several months before powering ahead again to close that Lunar calendar year at 957.66.

The trend ahead

Generally, the past two 12-year cycles of the Year of the Rabbit were viewed as a continuation of recovery after a major crisis although they eventually landed at the different side of the neutral line at the end of their respective lunar year.

According to the chart patterns, trading in the Rabbit year was pretty clear, divided into three phases, beginning with a rally, followed by a period of correction and consolidation and then, another uptrend.

With Bursa Malaysia still on the mending course and the underlying tone staying firm, the odds are great that the Rabbit may herald a “super bull” run on the local stock market and if history is any guide, it would last between three to six months in the early part of the coming Lunar year.

Next, correction and consolidation is expected to take place lasting several months before we could see another wave of upward thrust.

If the old practice of drawing a trend line on the chart is reliable, the bulls would find their way to the 1,800 points mark during intra-year session.

Elsewhere, another popular technical tool, namely the Fibonacci Projection, painted a more bullish pictogram. The absolute market movements before and after the financial crisis, from 1,524.69 on Jan 14, 2008 to a low of 801.27 on Oct 28, 2008 and the record closing high of 1,566.17 in mid-week, indicates an initial upside potential of 2,000 points.

Assuming that Wednesday's close of 1,566.17 was the base. A jump to 1,800 points going forward only give us a gain of 233.83 points or 15%. At 2,000 points, the sum was 433.83 points, or 28%.

Going by the books, either one or both of these targets are achievable, as the Rabbit has proven to all of us that it could hop a minimum of 67% during intra-year session. Indeed, the local bourse is not short of drivers.At home, the continuous inflow of foreign funds due to the sound fundamentals and stability of the domestic economy, strengthening of the ringgit, as well as rising commodity prices, especially, the crude oil and crude palm oil are likely to flood the equity market with ample liquidity. In addition, the ongoing speculations that the Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak may be calling for an early general election would also help to keep the market lively.

Compounded by offshore positive catalysts such as the optimism that the world's largest economy would not trip into “double-dip” recession but on the road to recovery, albeit on a gradual pace, improving economic condition in the Euro zone and the China factor, I believe the bulls have enough energy to propel the FBM KLCI to a higher level no one has seen before.




Source/转贴/Extract/: The Star Online
Publish date:08/01/11

Does the rally have more hop?

Saturday January 8, 2011

Does the rally have more hop?

By YVONNE TAN
yvonne@thestar.com.my

The stock market barometer hit a historical high recently. Will it have more bounce or could it hit a bump in the Year of the Rabbit?

CALL it the January effect, a pre-lunar rally or a pre-election run. In fact, call it whatever you want but this is the fact the stock market has never, in its history, risen to current levels before.

Investors cheered at the beginning of this week when the 30-stock key benchmark index, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KL Composite Index hit a fresh high of 1,533, up 14.5 points or 0.96%.

In the first week alone, it has risen more than 2.5% in ringgit terms and 2.3 % in US dollar terms.

Daily trading volumes have also been robust, crossing the average 2 billion mark against the average of some 1 billion last year.

“Granted, the index is not the perfect gauge as it is only made up of 30 component stocks but the positive sentiment is contagious and it is spilling over,” remarks a market observer.

The reasons for such exuberance includes stoked expectations of a general election in the first half of this year, massive global liquidity arising from quantitative easing in the Western world, a rising ringgit and commodity prices and a firm economic outlook, or at least economic recovery stories in most parts of the world.

This begs the question is the current upswing more than just a flash in the pan?

Laggard compared to the rest

Noteworthy is that the Malaysian stock market, relative to most of its Asean counterparts, has not gone up as much in the past one year.

For example, last year, markets in Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines were up 54%, 61% and 52% in US dollar terms as opposed to Malaysian equities which had risen 31%.

“That alone is more like reaching the top step of the kitchen ladder rather than the stars in the sky,” says Gerald Ambrose, the head of Malaysian operations at Aberdeen Asset Management.

Ambrose is quite confident that the current rise in the Malaysian stock market will continue. “It is real and the momentum appears to be intact,” he tells StarBizWeek. Naturally, no one quite knows how long the rise will continue.

“It could go on for the whole year to produce a huge equity bubble by the end of it. Or it could all go wrong tomorrow!,” says Ambrose.

Vincent Khoo, head of research at UOB KayHian writes in his 2011 market strategy report that macro domestic conditions in the first half of the year are favourable for a healthy market, with benign inflation and a firm economic outlook, boosted by the unfolding of the New Economic Model (NEM) which brings with it various degrees of financial liberalisation and mega infrastructure projects.

However, the second half of the year's performance, he says, would have less upside and as such, Khoo is advising clients to switch to being defensive, in anticipation of a “jerkier” market due to possible resumption of interest rate hikes here and less accommodative monetary policies in the West.

OSK Research head Chris Eng shares the same sentiment with Khoo, saying that the first half of the year is well positioned for a robust stock market while the remaining two quarters of the year could see some volatility largely due to the same reasons.

“For the time being, you can call it a pre-lunar rally, an election rally or the Capricorn effect, but the effect is the same!” says Ambrose.

Liquidity Rush

The massive amounts of liquidity totalling hundreds of billions of US dollars released from the credit and quantitative easing (QE) measures by the US and other developed countries such as Japan, European Union (EU) zone and Britain are currently flowing into high growth countries including Malaysia, in search of better returns.

“With the present low interest rate regime globally, hence low yields on fixed income and deposit instruments, it makes sense to be overweight on equities and Asia will be the focus of global investment funds given their growth potential,” says Danny Wong, CEO of fund management firm Areca Capital.

In this regard, a recent report by Credit Suisse Group AG showed that net foreign buying in Malaysian stocks surged to RM2.6bil in December from RM900mil the month before.

From the foreign exchange point of view, the weak US dollar is also a push factor for the influx of funds into Asia, encouraging investors to put their money into Asian equities, says Wong.

Last year, the ringgit appreciated more than 11% against the greenback.

“With this influx of investment money into Asia, Malaysia will gain from the spillover effect, if not directly benefit from the inflows,” says Wong.

The macro perspective

From the economic fundamental point of view, major economies such as the US and the EU zones are showing uneven recovery from their last crises, but economists are expecting some stabilisation of sorts in the near-term.

A slew of positive economic indicators from the US recently, for example, suggests that things could be getting better there.

On Tuesday, figures showed that new orders for US goods rose while the reading for the US Purchasing Managers Index a headline indicator for economic activity was also higher at 57% in December. A reading above 50% reflects growth.

Employment figures another key economic barometer were also healthier, rising 100,000 in December, the most since November 2007, according to Bloomberg.

Over in Europe, China has pledged its support for the zone, promising to help it out of its debt crisis by signing multi-billion contracts and buying up its bonds.

Domestically, growth is expected to be slower this year, coming from a high-base effect last year. Economists are predicting the economy to grow at about 5.3% this year from roughly 7% in 2010.

However, the equity market will continue to be supported by still relatively high double-digit corporate earnings buoyed by underlying domestic and global economic activities, says Areca's Wong.

The country's economic transformation programme (ETP) which includes plans to build a RM36bil mass rapid transit system, if wholly and successfully implemented, is likely to galvanise private investments.

Along with the Government's support of domestic consumption spending, the private sector will benefit from the economic growth, notes Wong.

“The implementation of the Greater KL for instance will benefit the construction, property and financial sectors with indirect spillover effect to other related sectors such as raw materials and other infrastructure industry,” he says.

Wong, as a fund manager believes that the confidence and perception towards Malaysia have somewhat improved among foreigners of late, largely due to the recent investment-friendly measures announced.

The lifting of certain controls and restrictions such as foreign holding limits in the financial sector, efforts to cut subsidies and the plan to reduce the country's budget deficit are among the contributing factors to a better perception of the country's transformation, he adds.

One fund manager says the promotion of Malaysia as a global Islamic financial hub has also put Malaysia on the radar screen of global investors.

“Once there is confidence, our “domestic champion businesses” such as the oil palm, glove, oil and gas and gaming sectors will be magnets to foreign funds,” Wong says.

Further supporting these fundamentals are that investors appear to already be overweight on neighbouring markets like Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand, says Aberdeen's Ambrose.

Data-wise, foreign institutions' holdings in Malaysian equities, although off their lows, are only about 22% now versus the peak levels of 27% in 2008.

Adds Ambrose: “Whilst valuations for Malaysian stocks are hardly at bargain basement levels by our calculations, our portfolio is on about 16 times 2011 earnings with earnings growth at a conservative 5% neither does it look anywhere near overvalued.”

In terms of FBM KLCI targets, UOB KayHian has a year-end target which is pretty similar to most research houses in town. It is targeting for the index to reach 1,654 by year-end based on a 2012 forecast price earnings of 14.5 times.

Wong notes many market trend followers believe that the market should enjoy “good times” for the next two to three years since the last financial crisis was in 2007 to 2009 and the market just started rebounding in the second quarter of 2009.

“Further, the expectations of an early election may provide a feel-good factor for a rally,” he adds.

Analysts also note the Government's efforts in reducing its stakes in major Government-linked companies including in Telekom Malaysia Bhd, Tenaga Nasional Bhd and Malaysia Airport Holdings Bhd, which will likely enhance participation from the retail market and foreign investors.

The downside

What could throw a spanner in the works in the current surge? Plenty, according to experts.

The issue of hot money and how quickly these funds could flow out as it has come into the Asian markets is one main risk.

Everyone knows that Asian economies are currently seeing strong inflow of funds as Western investors try to diversify from the horrors of holding US dollar, Euro and Sterling, Ambrose notes.

Because of this, several emerging economies have imposed various new measures to control excessive inflows of hot money.

“Malaysia has not joined in any of these measures so far (which has restored a lot of credibility in my view), but this remains a great uncertainty for Asian markets this year,” says Ambrose.

He emphasises that the various austerity measures taken up by the US Fed and the European Central Bank to tame their respective deficits in the wake of the financial mess they are in are unprecedented and could result in unforeseen consequences.

Example, Spain said last year it would reduce public investment, slash public wages by 5% and freeze them this year while suspending a raise in pensions.

“Unprecedented measures can result in unforeseen consequences. There could be more collapses in peripheral EU countries as a result of the measures, which can then derail everything,” Ambrose says.

Inflation could also derail the current rise in regional and global equities. Inflation, particularly cost push inflation caused by higher food and fuel prices hurts the man in the street in terms of higher prices.

Just earlier this week, the price of RON 97 petrol went up by 10 sen to RM2.40 a litre.

“It's possible that inflation could force Bank Negara to raise rates, hence slow money supply, thus making equities less attractive,” Ambrose says.

OSK Research warns of political instability including the possibility of wars specifically between North and South Korea as factors which can drag the market down.

In our view, however, the largest potential risk we see for 2011 will be if investors lose confidence in the US economy, and specifically the US dollar,” it says.

Geopolitical risks, contagion effects of sovereign indebtness, a double-dip recession. All these are risks.

Wong from Areca probably sums it up best when he says: “As always, it is advisable for investors to diversify their investments into various assets classes.”

In terms of fixed income, investors should keep to short-duration liquid bonds as inflation, likely to be driven by cost-push factors such as energy and food price hikes and subsidy cuts, may kick-in soon.

Source/转贴/Extract/:The Star Online
Publish date:08/01/11

RECOVERY SIGNS IN AMERICA

07/01/11

RECOVERY SIGNS IN AMERICA
Employment data may spur dollar gains

TOKYO
THE dollar held steady against the yen and the euro yesterday, maintaining overnight gains, and could strengthen more after strong private- employment data lifted expectations for today’s United States payroll number.

The dollar took a breather against the yen after rallying 1.5 per cent on Wednesday for its biggest one-day rise in more than three months, as dollar selling by Japanese exporters tempered the rally.

The euro eased slightly to US$1.3141 (S$1.70), hovering near trendline support at US$1.3110, with another possible downside target lurking at US$1.3081, the euro’s 200-day moving average.

The US ADP report showed that a record 297,000 private- sector jobs were created last month, reinforcing views that the country is on a steady path to recovery, and sending US Treasury yields higher across the curve, which gave a lift to the dollar.

Adding evidence of economic recovery was a separate report, which showed that the US services sector expanded in December. “The market is still bid for dollars,” said Mr Akira Hoshino, chief manager of Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi UFJ in Tokyo.

“If the key jobs data shows a jobs gain of 250,000 to 300,000, and the unemployment rate drops, it would further boost yields and support the dollar,” Mr Hoshino said.

The US non-farm payrolls data due today is expected to show overall gains of 175,000 jobs in December. The forecast was revised higher from 140,000 in the wake of the ADP data. A trader for a Japanese brokerage house said that if the jobs data shows an increase of around 300,000 jobs, that could open the way for an eventual dollar rise to 86 yen (S$1.30) to 87 yen.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback’s value against a basket of major currencies, held steady at 80.274, a sharp turnaround from last week’s 78.775 trough.

The dollar stood at 83.25 yen, holding steady compared with late US trade on Wednesday, after pulling up from an eight-week low of 80.93 yen hit on trading platform EBS earlier this week.

Traders cited dollar-selling by Japanese exporters at levels above 83.20 yen, while short-term players were said to be picking up the greenback on dips.

The euro, which has traded mostly between US$1.30 and US$1.34 since December, stayed under pressure on nagging worries about debt problems in certain euro-zone nations.

Mr Ayako Sera, market strategist at Sumitomo Trust and Banking, said: “There are still negative factors around for the euro but they are probably not fresh ones that would change the currency’s trend. The market is still watching how the euro zone’s debt problems will pan out.”
REUTERS


Source/转贴/Extract/: mypaper.sg
Publish date:07/01/11

胡立阳:明年一季度可能最“省心”

在谈到明年股市将如何运行时,有着“亚洲股市教父”称号的胡立阳表示,从全球股市来看,明年极有可能走出前高后低的态势。而A股市场明年一季度可能问题不大,随后的表现则要取决于市场的运行速度,如果上涨速度过快,行情随时都可能崩溃,但现在还不到担心市场崩溃的时候。

  他曾预测,2010年的全球经济可以说是不死不活,而全球股市则是大涨不易,大跌也难。如今,他表示,2011年的全球经济是水火同源、出现升机,而全球股市则是进二退一、匍匐前进。他解释说,全球经济正处于一种特殊状态中,即新兴市场国家担心通胀,而发达经济体担心衰退。这种现象可能在明年二季度后逐渐消散,欧美摆脱增长疑虑,加快复苏,全球经济因而出现升机。

但全球股市不可能会像经济那样走上拉升的快车道。因为,股市提前反映经济,当经济没有问题时,股市的问题就来了。近两年全球股市已经频频创反弹新高,收益率惊人,明年全球股市不可能再像今年一样上涨了,如果涨速过快,甚至不排除2011年全球股市走出一个“前高后低”的走势。胡立阳解释说,明年头几个月,股市的问题不大。但二季度之后,当全球经济完全反转时,股市就存在回档整理的可能性。如果届时股市仍马不停蹄,那就更值得担心了。“慢慢涨”是牛市下半场的重要特征,如果涨得太快,容易突然崩盘。

  谈到A股时,胡立阳表示,在股市突发利空或者利好时,一定要冷静地想一想,目前的市场处于一个怎样的位置。“假如,你正在洗冷水澡,再浇一盆冷水又如何?今年,A股跌幅已达16%,几乎是全亚洲最多,这说明A股一直在洗冷水澡,所以不要怕再浇一盆冷水。”胡立阳说。

  他认为,对目前的任何利空都不要过多担心,特别是加息。在牛市中,加息的初期不但没什么负面影响,反而能够助推股市上涨。因为加息不但说明经济向好,而且能够抑制原材料价格的过快上涨,平抑通胀。此外,更为重要的是,加息通道的打开,有利于恢复金融体系的秩序,令金融机构恢复到正常运作水平,利好金融股。美国也不排除在明年二季度开始加息,美元则可能在第一季度后开始企稳转强,全世界的经济金融秩序都将恢复正常。这个环境是利于股市操作的。其实,到最后,股市反映的不是利率水平,而是经济情况。

  基于对经济基本面的判断和对统计数据的观察,胡立阳认为,从短线来看,A股市场在跌到2750点以下后,就进入到了捡便宜的区域。就长线而言,如果市场跌到2571点以下,那就是“上帝”再次提供了一个大好的赚钱机会,可以大胆买进。他表示,现在的A股完全可以大跌大买,小跌小买,不跌也要买,至少明年头几个月不用担心。而下半年究竟会如何变化,还要看届时市场的运行情况。他还表示,小盘绩优股仍然是牛市下半场的重头戏。经验表明,牛市下半场不允许指数涨得太快,因而权重股依旧难有起色,相反小盘绩优股则有表现空间。


Source/转贴/Extract/: 中国证券报
Publish date:2010年12月31日 08:07

亚股涨跌互见·港股表现最佳 马股连涨4日闯1600

2011/01/07 10:56:13 AM

(吉隆坡6日讯)亚太股市周四涨跌互见,其中香港股市表现最佳,连续7个交易日以上涨表现挂收,而马股也取得相当不错的表现,今年首4个交易日皆以刷新历史新高记录闭市。

香港股市连续第7个交易日上涨,但盘中因受市场获利回吐影响,全天涨幅为本轮反弹行情启动以来的最低水平。

闭市时,恒生指数涨28.48点,以23786.30点收盘,涨幅达0.1%,而在盘中,该指数在23698.38点至23861.22点间波动。

在过去7个交易日以来,恒生指数累积已上涨5.2%。

中国股市下滑

然而,中国股市则出现下滑现象,在受到权重股中国平安(Ping An Insurance)领跌,以及煤炭股因投资者获利回吐拖累。

闭市时,上证综合指数收盘跌14.39点,至2824.20点,跌幅为0.5%。

至于在日本市场方面,虽然日元大幅下挫,但在投资者对美国和全球经济复苏信心增强之下,东京股市收盘走高。

日经指数收盘涨148.99点或1.4%,至10529.76点闭市。

马股自今年开市以来,富时隆综指就节节上升,持续第4个交易日以创新高记录闭市,为投资者注入强心针。

马股微涨2点

虽然马股今日的走势出现获利回吐局面,但在闭市时仍成功以2.20点或0.14%微涨挂收,报1568.37点,全日成交量更是突破20亿水平,达22亿466万4100股。

在短短的4个交易日,富时隆综指已上扬3.26%或49.46点。

同样地,新加坡股市收盘走高,进入新一年以来连续第四个交易日上涨,主要因强劲的美国就业数据显示出全球经济前景持续向好。

海峡时报指数收盘涨25.45点或0.8%,报3279.70点,成功突破3260点阻力水平,并牢守在该点位上方。

此外,澳洲股市因投资者依旧不确定昆士兰州洪灾对企业以及整体经济的影响程度,市场交投清淡,但收盘时依然小幅走高。

S&P/ASX 200指数今日在4696.2点至4731.6点区间内波动,收盘涨0.2%至4725点。

亚币仍有上涨空间

另一方面,瑞信私人银行预期,全球经济将因新兴市场需求强劲、利率接近零水平等因素支持,建议增持股票、商品及房地产,并减持政府债券。

同时,该行也预测,亚洲股市在今年将有19%的潜在累积升幅,亚洲国家货币兑美元汇率亦会进一步上升。

根据马兴业金融投资研究(MIDF)的报告,国内股市今年的展望乐观,外资游资预计将继续流入大马股市。

去年10月,富时集团(FTSE Group)宣布,大马升级为先进新兴市场(Advanced Emerging Market),这将可吸引更多的海外基金流入市场。

野村控股(Nomura Holdings)也估计在消费和产业领域的并购活动带动下,富时大马隆综指可望在今年增长13%至1700点。

野村控股在《2011年东协股票策略展望》报告中指出,“我们相信2011年是大马市场另一个“好年”,2010年的涨势可延续至2011年。”

大马交易所总执行长拿督尤斯里表示,大马股市重新引起国际投资者的关注,反映出大笔的外资基金自去年9月流入国内股市。

他说,基于我国的基本面稳固,预计将吸引更多的外资资金流入国内市场。

“我们发现本区域存在着许多的购兴,并期望可继续下去;大马市场提供着很多优质的股项,并拥有很好的价值。”

尤斯里指出,今年只是刚刚起初,大马交易所将继续重视素质、企业治理、透明度和投资者保障。


Source/转贴/Extract/: 南洋商报
Publish date:07/01/11

Friday, January 7, 2011

新台幣上演“蹺蹺板”行情

Created 01/07/2011 - 19:16

自新台幣兌美元匯率上月突破30元的心理關口以來,台灣外匯市場每天都在上演蹺蹺板行情。

如果有人想知道新台幣兌美元的匯率,答案很大程度上取決於問題是何時提出的。

舉例來說,週四新台幣的開盤價為1美元兌30.24元,盤中升至29.18元,在最後一個小時的交易時間,它又被拉了回來,最後收於30.1元。

傳台中行出手干預台灣中行否認匯率的波動是由於出手進行了干預。

但分析師表示,市場走勢明顯證明,台灣中行在努力確保至少新台幣的收盤價不會突破30元的關口。

一位金融高管表示,就好像台灣中行在製造一個”假的”30元匯率。

“但目的何在?這並不是人們交易的匯率。”

觀察認識表示,台灣中行被指進行的上述努力,反映面臨的彼此衝突的壓力。

台灣的出口導向型經濟增長迅速——在從全球金融危機中反彈之際,去年的增速達到近10%——已迫使台灣中行自去年6月以來3次上調利率,給新台幣帶來了上行壓力。然而,強勢新台幣可能會損害作為復甦主要推動力的台灣出口商。

一位行業高管表示,一個更深層次的問題是,儘管台灣明顯在悄悄地努力,不讓其貨幣升值速度超過日本和韓國等地區競爭對手,“但它仍比人民幣快”。這個問題尤其令人擔憂,因為台灣約有40%的貿易面向中國,而這些日益加強的聯繫正在加劇海峽兩岸的競爭。


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Source/转贴/Extract/: biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:07/01/11

小心地雷

Created 01/07/2011 - 13:50

原產品漲翻天,馬股翩翩起舞,開年,經濟氣勢如虹。望著熱錢蜂擁而至,股價屢創新高,投資者也許心存疑問:“全球經濟是否正式告別金融風暴?”。

最近,世界著名的英國經濟學人信息部(EIU)總監羅伯瓦發表了一篇言論,直言不諱:“儘管世界各地的經濟問題不一,但當我們步入2011年時,經濟隱憂其實也進一步提高,這些風險足以讓人從惡夢中驚醒!”

他坦言,全球經濟面臨的關鍵風險是:西向東的經濟勢力轉移過度緩慢,新興國家尤其中國的崛起,面對西方國家如美國的衰退時,已引發全球貨幣系統操作的挫折。

“簡而言之,中國傾向對經濟緊縮管制,而美國卻鍾愛自由市場的解決方案,促使波動無所不在。”

他提到,兩者緊張的局勢已掀起貨幣戰爭,主要經濟體紛紛尋求讓貨幣貶值以提振競爭力,其中,中國透過銀行干涉,美國則藉由印鈔來達到該目標,這些行徑其實已導致小國面對資本管控時的困擾。

此外,他認為,美國的通貨緊縮也增添經濟風險,可能引發更多貨幣寬鬆政策,如印鈔,進而對貨幣戰爭與資本管制施更多壓力。

他也總結了風險的3大因素:亞洲頻頻爆發的通貨膨脹、歐洲懸而未決的債務危機與一整年的緊縮政策。

看了羅伯特的言論,投資者或許有新的疑問:“全球經濟究竟能否安然渡過以上疑慮?”

分析員普遍看好富時綜指上半年的表現,投資者難免對投資蠢蠢欲動,然而,“錢”進投資市場時,可不能將外圍的“地雷”拋諸腦後。


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Source/转贴/Extract/: biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:07/01/11

OCBC: First REIT Leveraging on strong healthcare fundamentals

Current Price: S$0.74
Fair Value: S$0.84

Section A: Company Profile
First REIT (FREIT) is a Singapore-based REIT which seeks to invest in a diversified portfolio of income-producing real estate and/or real estate related assets in Asia that are primarily used for healthcare and/or healthcare related purposes. FREIT's current portfolio consists of five hospitals and one hotel/country club in Indonesia, as well as three nursing homes and one cancer centre in Singapore. The total appraised value of FREIT's portfolio stands at approximately S$612.8m as at 31 Dec 10. FREIT was listed on

the Singapore Exchange on 16 Dec 06. FREIT's sponsor is PT Lippo Karawaci Tbk (Lippo), Indonesia's largest broad-based property company listed on the Jakarta and Surabaya stock exchanges, with a market cap of approximately Rp16.0t. FREIT's manager is Singapore-based Bowsprit Capital (Bowsprit), which is 80% owned by a wholly-owned subsidiary of Lippo, hence making Bowsprit an indirect subsidiary of Lippo.



Indonesian assets as key driver. FREIT's gross revenue is mainly driven by its Indonesian properties, which forms approximately 86.4% of its total revenue (Exhibit 1). In terms of asset type, hospitals contributed 78.9% of total revenue (Exhibit 2). This should come as no surprise given that FREIT's sponsor Lippo is one of the leading private hospital operators in Indonesia via its Siloam Hospital division, which is the current master lessee of FREIT's three Indonesian hospitals. Given that FREIT has recently completed the acquisitions of two new hospitals in Indonesia, which will be leased to Lippo's Siloam, we expect Indonesia to continue to form an integral part of FREIT's revenue moving forward.



Section B: Investment Highlights

Good quality assets… FREIT's portfolio comprises of good quality assets that are well-positioned to capitalise on the growing demand for higher quality healthcare from the middle- class in Indonesia as well as increasing eldercare needs in Singapore. Its Indonesian hospitals are strategically located with a large catchment of potential patients. They are operated by Siloam Hospitals, which is a premier private hospital provider of high quality healthcare services in Indonesia. Its current flagship hospital, Siloam Hospitals Lippo Village (SHLV), is conveniently situated in the exclusive township of Lippo Karawaci in the Tangerang region and is also the first hospital in Indonesia to be granted the Joint Commission International (JCI) accreditation. JCI is a renowned international accreditation body that assesses whether a healthcare organisation has met a certain level of quality standard. On the other hand, FREIT's nursing homes in Singapore are equipped with the facilities and trained healthcare professionals to provide convalescent and rehabilitative care for its residents.



…backed by yield accretive acquisitions. With a well-defined acquisition strategy, FREIT has managed to complete the acquisitions of two Indonesian hospitals on 31 Dec 10. The first is Mochtar Riady Comprehensive Cancer Centre (MRCCC), which was purchased at a discount of 19.7% to its average valuation of S$212.3m. The other hospital is Siloam Hospitals Lippo Cikarang (SHLC), with a purchase consideration of S$35.0m, implying a discount of 13.8% to its average valuation. The acquisitions were funded by a 5-for-4 rights issue and debt. Despite the dilution for existing unitholders, we view the acquisitions positively given their accretive nature. We estimate that the net property income (NPI) yield of MRCCC and SHLC as a result of these acquisitions to be 10.8% and 10.7% respectively, which is higher than the existing portfolio's NPI yield of 8.8% (as at FY09). FREIT's distribution yield for FY11, when the new assets are expected to contribute, is projected to be 8.8%. This is greater than the current distribution yield of 8.1% as reported during its 3Q10 results. Hence we view these acquisitions as being yield accretive.



Increased income stability and enlarged asset base. As a result of the new acquisitions, FREIT will experience greater rental income stability. This is due to the long 15+15 years master lease agreement for the two new hospitals, which is similar to its existing Indonesian properties, offering downside revenue protection. Hence, its weighted average lease expiry (WALE) has increased from 10.6 years to 12.4 years. FREIT has also highlighted that the increased size of its asset base will enhance its profile and competitive positioning and reduce the weighted average age of the properties (WAAP) by approximately 32.7% to 12.1 years as at 30 Sep 10.



Steady and sustainable income… FREIT has delivered consistent and stable distribution per unit (DPU) to its unitholders since its listing in Dec 06 (Exhibit 5). One reason is due to the strong operators running its Indonesian assets, which provides FREIT with a revenue sharing opportunity if certain conditions are fulfilled. As highlighted earlier, FREIT's Indonesian hospitals are run by Lippo's Siloam Hospitals division, which has successfully grown its market position over the years. Lippo also runs the Imperial Aryaduta Hotel and Country Club (IAHCC), which is located opposite to SHLV. Management has highlighted that a medical block could possibly be set up at IAHCC in the future to complement SHLV. Two of FREIT's nursing homes are operated by units of Pacific Healthcare Holdings [NOT RATED], which is an integrated healthcare provider offering a comprehensive range of services. The third nursing home, The Lentor Residence, is leased and operated by First Lentor Residence Pte Ltd while the Pacific Cancer Centre is operated by Health Promise Pte Ltd.



FREIT has also effectively eliminated any exchange rate risk and uncertainty by securing the SGD-IDR exchange rate for its Indonesian rental income for the full term of its master leases. This has been fixed at S$1 = Rp5,623.50 for its initial four Indonesian assets and S$1 = Rp6,600 for MRCCC and SHLC.



…driven by favourable master lease terms. But we opine that the main reason for FREIT's stable and sustainable distribution income is attributed to its favourable master lease terms. All of FREIT's properties are leased out under a master lease agreement, with a committed occupancy of 100%. The master leases are on a triple net lease basis, where the tenant is responsible for any increases in insurance, tax or operating expenditure. Hence, this explains why FREIT's NPI margin is consistently at 99.0% and above. All of FREIT's master leases also offer a downside revenue protection, which provides a level of support for FREIT's unitholders. The Singapore assets are on a 10+10 years master lease, with a fixed 2% rental step-up every year. The Indonesian assets are on a 15+15 years master lease, with its base rental subjected yearly to a possible increment of two times Singapore's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase in the preceding year. This is subjected to a floor of 0% and a cap of 2%. In addition, there is a variable component based on the gross revenue growth of its Indonesian assets (summarised in Exhibit 6). We view this positively given Indonesia's growing healthcare market and Siloam Hospital's continual efforts to enhance the quality of its healthcare services. Siloam's hospitals have thus experienced good revenue growth as illustrated in Exhibit 7. The earliest dates for FREIT's renewal of its leases are 11 Apr 17 for its Singapore assets and 11 Dec 21 for its Indonesian assets.



Established and committed sponsor. We believe that FREIT would benefit largely from the support of its sponsor Lippo, especially since it has the right of first refusal on any assets sold by Lippo. Lippo recorded revenue and net income of Rp2.6t and Rp388b respectively in FY09, highlighting its strong financial position. This signifies the income resilience of FREIT given that Lippo accounts for 86.4% of its FY09 gross rental income. Given Lippo's increasing commitment towards healthcare, we believe this bodes well for FREIT as it will be able to leverage on Lippo's expertise in this area. Lippo plans to add around 20 hospitals to its assets within the next five years. More notably, Lippo recently acquired two private hospitals in Jambi and Balikpapan for US$18m and S$26m respectively. We view these two new hospitals as potential acquisition targets by FREIT in the future, which should provide a catalyst for its future growth.



Section C: Industry Trends and Outlook

We believe that FREIT can benefit largely from the underserved healthcare market in Indonesia. There is good growth potential ahead as there is increasing emphasis placed on the provision of proper healthcare services there. FREIT's Singapore nursing homes can also gain from the aging population and recent government initiatives. Although there is no variable component for FREIT's nursing home leases, but the improving prospects for its vendors will help to improve the stability of the rental income it receives.



Rising population and life expectancy. Indonesia's population has grown at a compound annual grow rate (CAGR) of 1.3% from 2000 to 2009 to 230m people, which makes it the fourth most populous country after China, India and US. Coupled with the increasing life expectancy of its population, this means that there is a huge market to be captured due to greater healthcare needs.



Increasing affluence to drive demand for high quality healthcare.

The emerging markets have rebounded strongly after the recent financial crisis and Indonesia is no exception. The Jakarta Composite Index has posted an impressive 46.1% return in 2010. Indonesians have also experienced growing affluence as seen by the 15.9% CAGR in its GDP per capita to US$2.35k from 2005 to 2009 (Exhibit 9). This has seen the emergence of the middle class with greater spending power. Hence demand for higher quality healthcare services will undoubtedly increase as standards of living improve and affordability becomes less of an issue.



Underserved healthcare market has good growth potential… Although there will be a foreseeable increase in demand for higher quality healthcare, we believe that the Indonesian healthcare market is still underserved. Indonesia's health expenditure as a percentage of its GDP stands at only around 2.2% in 2007, which is much lower than its regional peers (Exhibit 10). Moreover, World Health Organisation's (WHO) World Health Statistics 2010 highlighted that there were only six hospitals per 10,000 people and 1 physician per 10,000 people in Indonesia. Hence Lippo entered the healthcare business because it felt that it could address the issues of the shortage of high quality hospitals and growing needs of Indonesians seeking superior medical care. Backed by the growing brand awareness of its Siloam Hospitals, we believe that the potential for growth is extensive in this underserved market. Lippo is also exploring the possibility of providing healthcare to the masses moving forward. Although gross margins are lower for this segment, but we believe FREIT will be able to gain from this as its variable rent is subjected to topline increases.



…although thriving medical tourism poses challenges. While rising affluence of Indonesians does signify stronger demand for higher quality healthcare, there will likely be spillover effects to overseas countries. This applies mainly to people of the upper income bracket, who are willing to incur higher expenses in exchange for healthcare treatment that is of higher standard and sophistication in nature. According to industry data, medical tourism in Asia is expected to be worth some US$4b by the year 2012. We understand that the majority of Indonesians that seek medical treatment overseas choose Singapore as their destination given its reputation as a medical hub. Most of the remaining people seek their treatment in Malaysia. Exhibit 12 highlights the growing medical tourism business in regional countries, which will undoubtedly pose challenges to Indonesia's healthcare sector.



Aging population of Singapore. Singapore is fast becoming an aging population (Exhibit 13) and with many living longer than before, this implies an impending increase in palliative care services needs. Hence this augurs well for nursing homes in Singapore as the availability of healthcare professionals and facilities will help to cater to the convalescent needs of the aged.



Government initiatives on nursing homes. It was recently reported that two new nursing homes will be built in housing estates in the heartland of Singapore, while four existing ones will be relocated to upgraded premises in such areas. This highlights the increasing emphasis placed by the government on nursing home care, which bodes well for FREIT. Staff will also have their skills upgraded and we believe this would have positive spillover effects for private nursing home operators. Singapore's Ministry of

Health (MOH) also highlighted that it hopes to increase the number of nursing home beds from 9,300 to 14,000 by 2012. Hence FREIT could possibly carry out asset enhancement initiatives (AEI) to capture a bigger share of this market and increase its rental income in the future.



Health outlook. Given the positive trends highlighted as well as Lippo's aggressive plans to cater to the rising demand for higher quality healthcare services, we foresee FREIT's growth prospects to continue to be driven by Indonesian hospitals as well as possible yield accretive AEI of existing properties. We also believe that there is the possibility of acquisitions in other parts of the region such as Malaysia and Australia should the right opportunities come along.



Section D: SWOT Analysis

Strengths. FREIT's hospitals in Indonesia are able to benefit greatly from the growing demand for higher quality healthcare services there.This is via the revenue sharing component of its master leases with Lippo's Siloam Hospitals, which also highlights the strong sponsor support which FREIT receives. Siloam Hospitals recorded a 21% rise in revenue to Rp896b in FY09. We see potential for further growth given Siloam's investment in the latest equipment and technology and extensive reach to the growing middleclass population. All of Siloam's hospitals also have an established Centre of Excellence, which seeks to enhance their patients' experience.



FREIT also leases out its assets with favourable master lease terms such as the revenue sharing component just highlighted. This underpins FREIT's income stability as the master leases have long tenures; a downside revenue protection; and possibility for annual base rental escalation. Please refer to the 'Investment highlights' section for a full elaboration of FREIT's strengths.



Weaknesses. We view concentration risk as the biggest weakness of FREIT. This comes in the form of its strong dependence on its sponsor Lippo for the bulk of its rental income as well as the geographical risk of its assets. Lippo contributed approximately 86.7% of FREIT's gross revenue as at 9M10. We foresee this figure to rise to 91.8% (taking into account the deferred rental income from Pacific Cancer Centre) in FY11. However Lippo is currently the largest listed property company in Indonesia by total assets, revenues, net profit and market capitalisation. Lippo is also placing an increasing emphasis on its healthcare segment which will improve the operational expertise of its hospitals. As the major shareholder of FREIT, we believe that its interests are aligned with other unitholders. This would provide a level of support for FREIT's income.



Geographical risks exist due to the concentration of FREIT's assets in Indonesia. Its indonesian assets made up 86.4% of its gross revenue and 84.0% of the total capital value of its portfolio in FY09. Hence FREIT is susceptible to negative events such as natural disasters, pandemics and terrorist attacks etc.



Opportunities. We believe that FREIT's growth opportunities will be driven by its strong executional capabilities to acquire quality assets, coupled with its AEI. FREIT's goal is to increase its portfolio size to S$1b in two to three years’ time. We opine that this target is likely to be achieved mainly through the acquisition of yield accretive hospitals from Lippo, although mangement has highlighted that they are also open to acquiring quality assets that are non-sponsor related. This is due to Lippo's aggressive healthcare expansion plans, which presents a pipeline of hospitals that could possibly be injected into FREIT. Nursing homes in Singapore could also be a possibility, in our opinion, underpinned by Singapore's fast aging population. FREIT's current debt-to-assets leverage of 16.3% (our FY10F estimate) also offers sufficient debt headroom to its regulatory limit of 35%, which provides the financial flexibility to undertake any future acquisitions.



FREIT is currently undertaking AEI works on its Pacific Cancer Centre and is awaiting regulatory approval before embarking on an extension block at its Lentor Residence nursing home. The former is a proposed modern threestorey cancer centre with a GFA of 27,405 sq (from 13,412 sf), equipped with facilities such as a Radiotherapy and Imaging Centre. This AEI is expected to be completed around mid-2011, with a new 10+10 year lease term to be signed. We estimate that the NPI yield of this AEI to be

approximately 8.4% as a result of an increase in base rental. As for the Lentor Residence extension, we estimate its NPI yield to be 7.7%. Both yields are higher than FREIT's 7.4% Singapore portfolio NPI yield, but lower than the overall portfolio NPI yield of 8.8%. We believe this is justifiable as FREIT's indonesian assets tend to command a higher yield premium to compensate for their associated risks as compared to its Singapore assets. Moreover the Pacific Cancer Centre AEI would be fully funded by debt while the Lentor Residence by internal resources, with the yields being higher than its cost of debt (approximately 3.8%). Management also explained

that the lower initial yield was viable due to the 2% annual rental escalation stipulated in the leases.



Threats. We see increasing competition from private hospitals in Indonesia and the booming medical tourism trade as key threats to FREIT as this might adversely affect the variable rental revenues which it receives. While SHLV was the first hospital in Indonesia to receive the JCI accreditation, we note that two more hospitals have recently achieved this feat (Santosa Hospital on 13 Nov 10 and Eka Hospital on 11 Dec 10). This implies that there is an increasing focus by other private hospitals to tap on the increasing healthcare needs of Indonesians. A large number of rich Indonesia ns also tend to seek their medical treatment overseas due to the higher standards of treatment available and this rising trend would pose a challenge to Siloam Hospitals.



FREIT might also face the possibility of refinancing risks as its gross borrowings of S$56.8m (as at 30 Sep 10) all mature on Jun 2012. We also foresee this figure to increase to approximately $70m as it draw downs its term loan facility to finance the S$18.6m AEI of Pacific Cancer Centre. A new term loan facility of up to S$50m has also been undertaken for the acquisition of MRCCC, which is due in 2015. While we think that a more spaced out debt-maturity profile would be ideal, we believe that FREIT's healthy gearing ratio would provide sufficient headroom for their refinancing needs.



Any non-renewable of land titles upon expiry would also pose a major problem for FREIT. This is especially so for some of its Indonesian properties, which sits on different land titles. Both its Pacific Healthcare Nursing Homes also have a relatively short leasehold of 30 years, which will expire in 2032-2033. However, given the increasing emphasis placed on healthcare in Indonesia and nursing homes in Singapore, we believe this would boost FREIT's chances of renewing its land titles upon expiry. Management has guided that they managed to renew two such land titles in Indonesia at minimal cost in 2009. Three of their Indonesian assets (SHLV, IAHCC and SHLC) are also located inside Lippo's township, which makes it easier to get renewal approval when due, in our opinion.



Healthy leverage ratio. FREIT has a healthy debt-to-assets leverage ratio of 16.3%, which much lower than the S-REIT universe's average of 30.4%. Although FREIT has no credit rating and hence is restricted to a regulatory leverage ratio limit of 35%, we opine that there is ample headroom for FREIT to continue its strategy of acquiring accretive healthcare-related assets in the future. Management has guided that a comfortable long-term leverage ratio would be 25%. We estimate that FREIT has a debt headroom of around S$73.4m and S$181.6m before reaching management's target and the regulatory limit respectively. Hence FREIT is well-equipped to grow its portfolio size moving forward if the right opportunities come along, in our opinion.



Attractive yields. Based on our DPU estimates, FREIT is trading at an attractive forward yield of 8.8% for FY11. As FREIT's newly underwritten rights units1 were issued and started trading on 31 Dec 10 (new units accounted for in FY10's figures) while the rental revenue will only accrue in FY11, we deem FY10's DPU and yield as not a meaningful gauge. FREIT's FY11 distribution yield is an attractive 250 basis points (bp) above the SREIT average and 320 bp over ParkwayLife REIT (PLREIT) [NOT RATED], its most directly comparable peer.



Trading at discount to NAV. Based on our estimates, FREIT is currently trading at a price-to-book ratio (PBR) of 0.93x. On the other hand, PLREIT is trading at a 26% premium to its NAV. We believe that investors are willing to pay a higher premium for PLREIT due to the quality and safety of its assets (29 nursing homes in Japan and three private hospitals in Singapore). The broader S-REIT sector is trading at an average PBR of 0.94x which is in-line with FREIT. Although most of the REITs that own largely foreign properties typically trade at a fairly large discount to NAV due to perceived higher risk profiles, we argue that FREIT is justified to not trade at a large discount. This is because of the general defensive nature of the healthcare industry (which is also part of the reason why PLREIT is trading at a premium). Moreover, FREIT's assets also operate on a long master lease (10+10 years for Singapore properties and 15+15 years for Indonesian properties). This is much longer than the 2-3 year retail leases, 3-5 year office leases and 5-7 year industrial leases. Coupled with a fixed forex rate; downside rental protection; as well as a possible revenue sharing component in its leases, we believe this provides income stability and visibility for FREIT.



Our recent trip to visit some of FREIT's Indonesian properties also affirmed our opinion on the quality of FREIT's assets. The Siloam hospitals were well-furnished and equipped with modern equipment and technology. Siloam is also able to benefit largely from economies of scale since the medical



Positive share price performance in 2010. Despite being touted largely as defensive yield plays, the FTSE ST REIT Index has moved fairly in-line with the broader market, posting a return of 10.6% in CY10 (10.1% for STI). In particular, FREIT has returned an impressive gain of 19.1% while PLREIT surged 35.2%. This could be attributed to both Healthcare REIT's indirect play to the healthcare sector, which was the star performer of last year. We believe that there could still be further upside potential ahead, driven by the strong fundamentals of the healthcare sector



Earnings estimate. For the base rental, we assume a 2% increment p.a. for the Indonesian portfolio based on our expectations of the CPI moving forward. For the variable rent component, we estimate the Indonesian hospitals and IAHCC to contribute an additional 1.25% and 0.75% of their preceding year's gross revenue respectively. We also take into account MRCCC and SHLC's base rental contribution accruing from FY11. These considerations are underpinned by our view on the good growth potential of Indonesia's healthcare sector.



Valuation methodology. We value FREIT using a RNAV-based valuation model. For the purpose of valuing the investment properties, we assume a WACC discount rate of 7.41% for its Singapore assets and a WACC discount rate of 10.41% for its Indonesian assets. As such, we derive a fair value estimate of S$0.84



Potential upside ahead; initiate with BUY. We believe that FREIT represents a compelling investment story. This is driven by its income stability due to its favourable master lease terms as well as the positive prospects of Indonesia and Singapore's healthcare sector. We are sanguine about the committed support which Lippo provides and the potential assets in FREIT's pipeline. We also like management's strong execution capabilities as demonstrated by the yield-accretive quality assets acquired over the years. Our RNAV-derived fair value estimate of S$0.84 yields a potential upside of 13.7% and a total return of 22.6%. As such, we initiate coverage on FREIT with a BUY rating.



Source/转贴/Extract/:OCBC Investment Research
Publish date:07/01/11

HwangDBS: Stock Picks

Stock Picks
Stocks Key Buy reasons

Boustead
(1) More proactive management. Major shareholder LTAT has committed to raise Boustead’s free float by cutting its 60% stake to 51%. It also recently bought 86.1% of Pharmaniaga, a government healthcare service provider, which would allow for vertical integration within the group and aid in the 57% EPS growth for FY11F. We think the market has not priced in the significant earnings accretion. On the cards is also the potential sale of its Indonesian plantation estates (c.18,000 ha) that is capping its current blended FFB yield at 16.7 MT/ha. It is also a good proxy to rising CPO prices with 74,370 ha of largely matured planted area.



(2) GLC property proxy. The major rerating catalyst is on the property front, where LTAT is currently finalizing two lucrative government land deals – (i) 60 acres of Jalan Cochrane land, and (ii) 245-acre Batu Cantonment army base in Jalan Ipoh. We estimate these projects could add RM2.05/share, raising our SOP value to RM10.35. This excludes the more recent rights to reclaim highly valuable land in Penang.



(3) Awaiting LOA for 6 PVs. We expect BHIC to convert the LOI from the Malaysian Ministry of Defence to undertake the construction of 6 Second-Generation Patrol Vessels (PV) with combatant capabilities soon. While the contract value was not disclosed, we expect this to be higher than the RM6.7bn for the first 6 PVs, which will triple its current c. RM2bn orderbook. Our new order win assumptions are conservative for BHIC at RM800m p.a. for FY10-FY12. EBIT margins should be higher than for the earlier 6 PVs given the more complex work required, estimated at 15-20%. Its recent MOU with MHS Aviation will enable it to strengthen its position within the oil & gas industry. Boustead is a High conviction Buy with a RM7.60 TP that is based on 20% discount to our SOP value of RM9.48. Despite its recent rerating, valuations remain at bargain levels at 9x FY11 PE and 1.1x P/NTA, while offering 4.5% yields.



DRB-Hicom

(1) Under-researched multi-bagger in the making. DRB is a conglomerate with interests in automotive, property, banking, and services (waste management, national vehicle inspection, and O&M of power plants). It is the cheapest conglomerate in DBSV Malaysia universe. But with efforts to be more investor-friendly now, we expect a significant rerating from its bargain basement valuation of 5.5x FY12 EPS and 0.6x FY12 BV on the back of 3-year EPS CAGR of 79%. Its balance sheet is also improving with 0.3x net gearing (excl. deposits/cash at Bank Muamalat). Recently, there are rumours of a privatization at RM2.20- RM2.70/share.



(2) Proxy to consumption story. DRB’s automotive business has 20% share of TIV that is estimated to peak at 570,000 units in 2010. 1HFY11 profit from its automotive unit expanded 3.5-fold y-o-y driven by 12%-75% increases in sale volumes of all its marques. Besides being a key distributor for Proton, Honda, Mitsubishi, and Audi, it inked an agreement with VW to assemble CKD packs for 3 models in Malaysia and later to other ASEAN countries. This will be synergistic for its autoparts companies. A key catalyst is the conversion of LOI from the Ministry of Defence for 257 AV 8x8 armoured wheeled vehicles worth c.RM8bn.



(3) Beefing up recurring services income. Pretax contribution from this unit grew 49% y-o-y in 1HFY11 led by Bank Muamalat, KLAS, and cash-cow concessions - Rangkai Positif, Puspakom and Alam Flora. Alam Flora will benefit from further privatization of the domestic waste industry, while Rangkai Positif should gain from more O&M works with the eventual expansion of Tanjung Bin by another 1,000MW. The eventual divestment of 30% of Bank Muamalat to Al Baraka Group will also enable the group to expand its footprint regionally. Based on 1.4x P/NTA, similar to Hong Leong Bank offer for EON Bank's assets, this could raise RM600m. Buy with TP of RM3.55 based on 20% discount to SOP.



Gamuda

(1)Remains high conviction stock pick for the sector. Our SOP-derived RM4.90 TP builds in realistic assumptions for the RM36bn MRT project – 50% probability the MMC-Gamuda JV would clinch the RM14bn tunneling works. We value this at RM1.5bn (RM0.68/Gamuda share) using 2011-2016 cash flows, 10% discount rate, 8.3% blended margin, and 50% discount. To avoid double-counting, we removed the SOP accretion from the RM2.5bn new orders assumed for FY12.



(2)MRT gets cabinet approval, JV clinches PDP role. This is sooner than the previous timeline of Jan11. It cements our conviction that the project is scheduled to start work by Jul11 and the JV will bag the lucrative RM14bn tunneling project. The first MRT line will run between Sungai Buloh and Kajang through the centre of Kuala Lumpur. If the PM’s ETP programme, which hinges a great deal on the MRT project for growth, were to bear fruit, we see little reason the project would be delayed or tenders opened to foreign competition. This project will more than double its existing RM5.5bn orderbook and give it another 6 years visibility post-completion of its double tracking project in 2013.



(3) Strong local property sales offsets Vietnam delay. Gamuda’s launch of its RM6bn Celadon City development in HCMC has been pushed forward to Feb11 from Nov10, due to a change in decree in Vietnam. Nonetheless, Gamuda believes it can catch up and is maintaining its sales guidance of RM700m (RM300m Celadon City, RM400m Gamuda City) for FY11. Gamuda City is slated for launch in Apr11. On the local property front, sales for 1QFY11 of RM350m have surpassed expectations, and management has raised its RM880m sales guidance for FY11 to RM1bn.



Maybank

(1) Domestic economic recovery play. Maybank is mostly a commercial banking franchise, which positions it as an economic recovery play especially in consumer and business loans. It tops the deposit market with 22% share, with an inherent domestic deposit franchise advantage. We expect its loan portfolio to grow at 12-15%.



(2) Multi-year Indonesia growth story. Management is targeting RM450-500m annual profit from BII within three years, which means BII’s profit contribution to Maybank would rise to 12% from 7% currently. BII’s loan portfolio make up only 7% of Maybank’s total loan portfolio currently, but it targets to grow its loans by at least 25% p.a. An option for Maybank to reduce its stake to 80% (to maintain 20% free float as requested by Bapepam) could be positive. Selling a 17.5% stake of BII at current price could return Maybank with c.RM2bn, which would nicely offset the book value decline from goodwill impairment booked in FY09.



Sime Darby

(1) Bouncing back. After three consecutive quarters of booking and recognizing provisions and losses, Sime’s latest result showed strong recovery in Motor, Industrial, Power & Port facilities. We expect plantations to do well this year, premised on yield recovery and strong prices



(2) No more negative surprises. All conceivable losses for Bakun, Qatar Petroleum, MQP, and Marine Projects have been provided for.



(3) Cheaper than peers. At 15.8x CY11F earnings, Sime is currently trading at a large discount to its sector average of 18.5x, while having the highest leverage to strong CPO prices due to its large mature areas (largest in our coverage). Our SOP-derived TP is RM10.20.



(4) Decent yield. At current price, Sime offers decent 3.2% dividend yield at 50% payout ratio.



RHB Capital

(1) Alleviating the liquidity issue. RHB Cap is set to remove the liquidity overhang in its shares with EPF selling down its stake from 54% to 49% currently, and plan to sell another 9% to reduce its stake to 40%. We believe RHB Cap was under the radar of many investors because of low stock liquidity previously. But given its 15-16% ROE profile, RHB Cap deserves to be re-rated.



(2) Niche ‘banking-made-easy’ outlets. “Easy by RHB’ is a simplified banking concept that is highly scalable and expected to tap into new demographic markets, expand customer base, and raise net interest income. This would differentiate RHB Cap from its peers while steering away competitive pressure. RHB Cap is also targeting larger contribution from its international business (namely Singapore and Indonesia) over the next three years. Synergies from the acquisition of Bank Mestika (expected completion in 2Q10) will emerge over time.



(3) Attractive valuations. RHB Cap still stands out as a value proposition in PBV and ROE metrics, despite the share price run up over the last 3 months. It is trading at 1.7x CY11F PBV, 24% discount to the sector average of 2.1x. RHB Cap could be a prime M&A candidate among larger banks, given its attractive valuation and ROE profile. Buy with GGM-based RM10.00 TP.



WCT

(1) RM2bn new orders for 2011. There is no firm guidance for FY11 order wins, but we understand RM2bn is an achievable target. This is in line with our forecast. We understand that two contracts are in advanced stages; the first and larger is in the Middle East and will be on a JV basis with Cebarco, while the smaller is for additional infrastructure works in Medini, Iskandar. The revival of its Sabah dam project worth at least RM1bn is a wild card.



(2) Beat 2010 guidance. WCT clinched RM2.2bn worth of new jobs in 2010, comprising the RM1.36bn government administrative building in Doha, RM128m Tuaran hospital in Sabah, RM486m integrated complex for LCCT, and RM246m contract for Bahrain City Centre Hotel Fit Out works.



(3) Buy, TP RM3.60. We continue to like WCT as a cost effective contractor that will benefit from the more apparent open tender system. Given its less diversified earnings base, it is also a more leveraged proxy to new contract wins.



AirAsia

(1) One of cheapest airlines. Trading at only 8.7x CY11F EPS, AirAsia is one of the cheapest stock among peers. Its current valuation is unjustified since it is the largest low cost carrier in the region, and we believe the market is underestimating its growth potential from riding on the sector recovery.



(2)Aviation market is gradually recovering. Apart from a strong domestic market, AirAsia is also supported by strong regional air travel demand from its Thailand and Indonesian associates. New ventures in Vietnam and the Philippines also create room to grow over the medium to long term.



(3)27% core earnings CAGR in FY09-12F. AirAsia’s fleet expansion is timely as it allows the Group to continue to capture recovering air travel demand while gaining ancillary income. We expect AirAsia to record 77-78% load factor in FY11F-12F on the back of 8-10% RPK growth. We assumed flat RM39 ancillary revenue per pax in FY10F-12F (up from RM29 in FY09). Higher passenger spending could raise our forecast earnings further. Meanwhile, the projected weaker USD against MYR (by 4- 8% p.a. in FY10F-12F) could also help to mitigate the impact of rising jet fuel prices.



(4)Buy with RM3.20 TP based on 11x CY11F EPS, in line with peers’ average. Catalysts for the stock include stronger load factor, yield, and ancillary income.



SP Setia

(1) Biggest beneficiary of continual robust demand for residential property, as the largest developer by sales. Property sales should be supported by positive macro factors (strong economic growth, young population, attractive financing) and infrastructure improvements (MRT, LRT extension). SPSB is targeting to grow sales by 30% to RM3b in 2011.



(2) Stronger earnings growth (3-year CAGR 45%) with the launch of RM6b KL Eco-City commercial project (opposite MidValley) in 1Q11. Expect a further boost from potential lucrative land deals given its solid balance sheet (net gearing 27%, RM1.1b cash + RM1.8b unbilled sales) and strong track record/brandname.



(3)Attractive valuation relative to historical. SPSB is currently trading at 14% discount to RNAV of RM6.66 vs 5-25% premium to RNAV at its peak, despite achieving record sales and transforming into a regional property player. Our RM7.00 TP is based on 5% premium to RNAV.



Bolton

(1) Strong earnings growth (3-year CAGR 49%), driven by contribution from new high-end residential and commercial projects in the Klang Valley. Our estimates have yet to factor in future development value of 4.3-acre Jalan Mayang JV land (RM1.4b GDV, 2012 launch).



(2) Potential lucrative land deals. Armed with potential unbilled sales of RM400m and low 4% net gearing, Bolton is in a good position to expand its landbank in Klang Valley and Penang - including participation in government land projects given the scarcity of Bumi developers with track record in high-end residential development.



(3) Attractive valuation. Bolton is currently trading at 56% discount to RNAV of RM2.48 vs small-mid cap developer average of 41%. Our RM1.50 TP is based on 40% discount to RNAV. Bolton is one of the largest listed landowners around KLCC that should benefit significantly from the upcoming MRT.



KNM Group

(1) A recovery play, order book at record high. Earnings are expected to gain momentum going into 2011. Including the recent RM2.2b windfall power project in the UK, KNM will enter the year with an order book of over RM4.0b, its record high. We believe earnings will continue to improve, as will margins, as the company gains from higher capacity utilisation and better margin jobs secured post-2009. We expect pre-tax profit to expand at CAGR of 48% in FY10-12F.



(2) Beneficiary of rising domestic and global activities. KNM secured a total of RM4.4b of contracts in 2010. Going forward, we expect KNM to be a strong beneficiary of domestic projects in the pipeline. Its latest JV puts the company is a strong position for several jobs lined up in East Malaysia, i.e. Sabah Oil & Gas Terminal, and Kimanis Power Plant, amongst others. We also see KNM benefiting from rising global oil & gas activities given its strong global footprint. We assumed RM3.0b contract wins for 2011 with 20% hit rate of its existing tender book.



(3) Still a laggard in the oil & gas space. The stock is still lagging behind the oil & gas sector at 13x FY11F PE against the sector’s average of 15.5x. Regionally, its comparative peer is trading at close to 19x. Our RM3.50 target price is pegged to 15.5x FY11 EPS, a 15% premium to its historical PE average. We believe the PE valuation is justified by the positive sentiment in oil & gas companies, particularly with the improving clarity of domestic jobs.


Source/转贴/Extract/: HwangDBS Vickers Research
Publish date:05/01/11

HwangDBS: KLCI Scaling new heights

Scaling new heights
• Expect KLCI to reach new high with end-2011 target of 1,730
• Positive domestic factors will drive further upside and create excellent stock opportunities
• High conviction picks: Maybank, Gamuda, Boustead Holdings, DRB-Hicom



Uptrend intact. We expect a confluence of positive factors – Prime Minister (PM) Najib’s extensive transformation programme, strong liquidity, robust economic recovery, Ringgit/US$ strength and possible general election in 2011 – to fuel the market’s uptrend this year. 2011 earnings are 35% higher than before the financial crisis, although the benchmark KLCI has just breached pre-crisis levels. In terms of earnings multiples, the market is currently trading at 13x forward earnings. In 2008, the market traded up to 18x. Given the positive domestic factors, we believe there is further appreciation on the horizon. Sustained strength in CPO prices will intensify the rise, with palm oil stocks accounting for 19% of the KLCI. For 2011, we expect the KLCI to rise 11% to our year-end target of 1,730 points (15x forward earnings) from 1,650 previously.



Upcoming wave of projects. With the introduction of PM Najib’s initiatives in 2010, we expect 2011-2012 to see greater focus on execution and project awards to gain more

momentum. The award of the RM36bn MRT project, the country’s largest construction project todate, by July 2011 will unleash a flood of opportunities for players such as Gamuda (High Conviction Buy; TP: RM4.90), IJM Corp (Buy; TP: RM6.75) and WCT (Buy; TP: RM3.60).



Renewed direction; promising outlook. We sense growing optimism in stepping up investments in the country with projects such as toll highways and the redevelopment of

strategic government land. Potential beneficiaries are SP Setia (Buy; TP: RM7.00), MRCB (Buy; TP: RM2.90), and Boustead (High Conviction Buy; TP: RM7.60).



Risk: execution. Despite the growing sense of optimism, there is still much that the government needs to do to facilitate more investments and the economic transformation, such as introduce fiscal incentives to attract investments, remove unnecessary regulations, and enhance ease of doing business.



Earnings: Strong upgrades

Since the start of the year, we have seen a series of earnings upgrades that amounted to 4.3% for 2010 and 18.3% for 2011 in our universe – supporting the KLCI’s 19% YTD gain (our universe gained 23%). In terms of percentage gains, there were significant upgrades in motor (robust car sales, better margins), gaming (positive surprises from Genting’s Singapore operations), telecoms (strong Axiata contribution from Indonesia), and banks (stronger capital market activities, higher non-interest income, lower provisions). These more than offset earnings downgrades for the oil & gas sector (weak vessel charter market, lower margins). In comparing the sector earnings and market capitalization gains/losses, we find:



• Motor, Telcomm (largely Axiata) and Manufacturing sectors registered strong earnings gains versus market cap gains. Earnings multiples for these sectors are now relatively more attractive than beginning of the year. In these sectors, we like: MBM (Buy; TP: RM4.80), Axiata (Buy; TP: RM5.10), Evergreen Fibreboard (Buy; TP: RM2.10);



• Oil & gas saw significant earnings cuts. However, we recently upgraded earnings for our top sector pick: KNM (Buy; TP: RM3.50), on the back of its sizeable contract win;



• Consumer, construction, concessionaires, property and transport (mainly aviation) saw greater price gains reflecting more optimistic views/PLUS offer. Our favourites, where we foresee further upside, in these sectors include: Gamuda (High Conviction Buy; TP: RM4.90), SP Setia (Buy; TP: RM7.00), AirAsia (Buy; TP: RM3.20);



• Gains in Financials, Gaming, Plantation was in line with earnings upgrades. Among our picks here include: Maybank (Buy; TP: RM10.80), Genting (Buy; TP: RM14.60), Sime Darby (Buy; TP: RM10.20).



2011 earnings +35% from pre-crisis levels

Going forward, we expect earnings to grow by 19.4% for 2011 and 11.8% for 2012. Excluding Sime Darby’s provisions and writedowns (including Qatar and Bakun projects in 2010), earnings growth would be 13.9% for 2011 and 11.8% for 2012. The biggest contributor to growth would be banks, where we have seen strong loan growth, lower provisions and higher non-interest income.



With these growth rates, 2011 profit is 35% higher than precrisis levels in 2008. The earnings improvements are broadbased with profits higher in almost all sectors. Particularly strong gains can be seen in cyclical sectors such as motor, financials, property, transport and construction.



Valuations

Although 2011 earnings are 35% higher than pre-crisis levels in 2008, the KLCI is only 2% higher than the pre-crisis record high of 1,516. Given the positive domestic factors and sentiment, we believe there is room for further gains. For 2011, we lift our year-end KLCI target to 1,730 points (15x forward earnings) from 1650 before. Although our new target is above its historical mean of 14x, it is below 2008 peak levels where the KLCI traded up to 18x.



The uptrend could be further propelled by the heavier weighting of larger cap stocks in the KLCI. On 19 July 2009, the KLCI was restructured to comprise only 30 components instead of 100 previously. This increased the weighting of large cap stocks; the top five stocks (CIMB, Public Bank, Maybank, Sime Darby, Genting) currently have a combined c.44% weighting. Since the restructuring, c.38% of the index’s gains had been driven by five stocks.



Foreign ownership levels of 22% as at end Sep 10 are still below 2007’s 27%. As foreign ownership levels increase, the larger caps may benefit and lift the KLCI.



Relative to neighbouring indices, the KLCI has lagged in the recovery. Thailand and Indonesia have already exceeded 2008 highs, while Malaysia has only breached these levels. Although the KLCI continues to trade at a premium to regional peers, the premium has narrowed. The KLCI’s premium to regional peers was 22% in early 2010, but it has since narrowed to 11%.



Transformation: Gaining momentum

2010 marked the announcement of initiatives forming key pillars of PM Najib’s national transformation programme. The initiatives have gained momentum recently. In October and November, we saw announcement of several projects. We understand more are due to be announced in January.



A) Infrastructure construction

MMC-Gamuda JV has secured cabinet approval to be PDP for the RM36bn MRT project, the country’s single largest infrastructure job. With accelerated roll out scheduled in July 2011, this project will create a lot of jobs for the industry and will be a major catalyst for the sector. We believe Gamuda and MMC will have a strong chance of securing the RM14bn tunnelling works. Potential beneficiaries of other parts of the MRT project are IJM Corp and WCT. The project will also have high multiplier effect on the building material and property sectors, among others.



Apart from the MRT, the award of the remaining phases of the Light Rail Transit (LRT) system and 10th Malaysia Plan projects should provide abundant infrastructure-related opportunities for contractors. We expect IJM Corp to benefit from the construction of the West Coast Highway and be a strong contender for the remaining phases of the Light Rail Transit (LRT) system. WCT would be building on its growing presence in the Iskandar Development Region.



From our conversations with the corporates, we sense renewed optimism in stepping up investments in the country.



B) Acceleration in oil & gas sector

As the largest revenue generating sector in the country, the sector is targeted to contribute the most (in absolute terms) under the ETP. The oil & gas incentives announced in November 2010 are an excellent start to improve returns on marginal fields and spur greater activity in this segment. We also see very promising themes for brownfield services (maintaining and improving existing facilities, accelerating development of fields), downstream (regasification project, deepwater storage terminal, Tanjung Agas Park) and deepwater development (Kebabangan and Malikai). KNM Group and Dayang Enterprises are our top picks for exposure in this sector.



C) Property winners

The Malaysian property sector, especially large prime land owners in KL, will benefit from the following:

a) Government land redevelopment projects - Sungai Besi, Dataran Perdana, MATRADE, RRIM, Jalan Cochrane, Kampung Baru – should re-rate surrounding property values; and

b) Greater KL Plan (including MRT, rejuvenation of rivers, greener KL, iconic places) to improve KL’s ranking to one of the Top 20 most liveable and economic cities in the world by 2020;



Aside from the GLC developers tipped to benefit from government land redevelopment (e.g. MRCB, Boustead, Bolton, SP Setia, Mah Sing), owners of large landbank and

investment assets in KL such as YTL Land (NR), TA Enterprise and Wing Tai should also stand to gain.



Politics: Will be eventful year

2011 promises to feature more politics than 2010. Sarawak, which has 71 state seats, needs to hold state elections by July. For the broader market, we believe there is no strong correlation to the Sarawak state elections. However, there could be a spike in interest in Sarawak-linked companies in anticipation of potential contracts and projects. This includes stocks such as CMS, Naim, and Encorp. Our pick: Dayang Enterprise (Buy; TP: RM3.40), supported by a strong RM1bn order book and superior margins. It is in a good position to secure maintenance projects in 2011. TRC Synergy (Buy; TP: RM1.85) could be a contender for upcoming construction-related projects in Sarawak. The stock is the cheapest in our construction universe, trading at 1- year forward 9x PE and 0.8x P/NTA.



There is speculation that PM Najib might call for a General Election (GE) in 2011 and maybe hold the GE simultaneously with the Sarawak state elections.



In balance, we see the case for GE in 2011. It would be timely to ride on the sentiment of recent by-election wins, and recovering economic indicators and stock market, and give the PM a stronger mandate to pursue the next leg of the transformation programme. We believe the PM would have a stronger hand for GE in 3Q 2011, when there are more results of the early transformation initiatives



To us, the bigger question is what needs to happen before the GE is called. We believe the answer is the accelerated awards for infrastructure and property projects. There generally is a positive bias to the stock market six months ahead of a GE, looking at the past five elections. Premised on this, potential plays this time around would include infrastructure: Gamuda, MMC and property: MRCB, Boustead, UEM Land. Unpopular moves such as sharp price hikes (petrol, electricity and gas) may be unlikely to sustain

the feel-good factor. More details on market performance ahead of GE are shown in the Appendix.



Resilient economic growth supported by domestic demand

For 2010, we project 7.2% GDP growth supported by firm domestic demand. We expect private consumption to grow on better employment outlook and positive wealth effect resulting from higher asset prices. Investments should remain sustainable in anticipation of positive government reforms and rollout of development projects. For 4Q10, we expect 4.5% y-o-y growth. On q-o-q saar basis, this implies about 8% rebound from the dip in 3Q.



For 2011, we foresee a moderation in GDP growth to 5.5% largely on weaker exports and the higher base in 2010. Imports have continued to outpace exports, resulting in a

drag on overall GDP growth. The manufacturing sector and some externally driven services industries (i.e. transportation services) could be in for a soft patch as external demand softens.



In terms of the currency, we expect quantitative easing, economic growth and interest rate differential to drive US$ weakness this year. Relative to the US$, we expect the

Ringgit to appreciate to RM2.96 by end-4Q11.



Strong CPO prices

We expect CPO prices to remain strong in 1QCY11, as the lagged impact of Jan-Feb 10 drought in Malaysia might cause a steeper-than-normal seasonal drop in FFB yields this year. Hence, Malaysian palm oil inventories are forecast to gradually decline through Apr 11 - barring significant imports from Indonesia. There is also a risk that current dry conditions in South America could adversely impact soybean yields there (due to be harvested in Feb-May 11). Demand, on the other hand, should be supported by Chinese New Year requirements as well as replenishment of Chinese state reserves.



Strong CPO prices will be positive for the market – palm oil-related stocks account for 19% of the KLCI weighting. Sime Darby has the highest leverage to strong CPO prices due to its large mature area (largest in our coverage) and recovering yields in Indonesia. Our picks: Genting Plantations (Buy; TP: RM11.00), Sime Darby (Buy; TP: RM10.20), TSH Resources (Buy; TP: RM2.95). Conglomerate Boustead Holdings (High Conviction Buy; TP: RM7.60) will also benefit from strong CPO prices.



Sentiment: Positive

On the back of a confluence of positive factors – robust economic recovery, Ringgit/US$ strength, PM’s extensive transformation programme, and possible general election in 2011 – we believe risk appetite and sentiment should remain positive in 1Q2011.



With this, there is a good chance for liquidity and foreign ownership levels to rise to 2007 levels.



Positive January effect

January has generally been a positive month for the market. Over the last 10 years, the KLCI chalked up average of 2.4% gain in January with 8 out of 10 years registering gains, compared to December’s average gain of 1.3%.



Sector weights

Our expectation on the transformation including the acceleration in awards for construction, oil & gas and value enhancement from redevelopment of government land

underpin our overweight view on construction, oil & gas and property. We expect more capital market activities and robust earnings for banks while the palm oil players should benefit from strong CPO prices.



Key Risks: Execution & transparency

Execution: Despite the growing sense of optimism, there is still much that the government needs to do to facilitate more investments and the economic transformation, such as fiscal incentives to attract investments, remove unnecessary regulations and restrictions, and enhance ease of doing business. Procedures should be streamlined so that potential investors need not seek multiple licences, notifications and approvals from several authorities and ministries. Transparency in government decision-making will also be important to facilitate investments.



Capital controls: With the disparity in growth outlook between the US/Europe and Asia, we have seen an influx of foreign investments into the region, resulting in the appreciation of regional currencies. Against the US$, the Ringgit appreciated 10% (to RM3.09/US$) in 2010. Several countries have instituted some forms of capital controls. Such controls could cause a sharp and sudden reversal of investment flows, although we believe the likelihood of Malaysia doing the same is less given the possible general election.


Source/转贴/Extract/:HwangDBS Vickers Research
Publish date:05/01/11

CIMB:Liquidity-fuelled pre-election rally

2011 strategy
OVERWEIGHT Maintained
1,551.9 @04/01/11
Target Index: 1,700
Liquidity-fuelled pre-election rally


• Significant trading catalysts. The KLCI confounded sceptics in 2010 when it scaled new all-time highs, capping two years of a V-shaped recovery. 2011 looks set to be another good year, driven by foreign funds which have strayed from the beaten path in search of higher returns in emerging markets and also election fever as elections are generally positive for the market. Malaysia remains underowned by foreign funds, whose holdings are still worth 30% less than before the global crisis. While we think it is too early to call for general elections, we note that Sarawak must hold state elections by Jul 2011. Umno party elections should be held shortly after general elections. We continue to rate Malaysia an OVERWEIGHT and maintain our recently raised end-11 KLCI target of 1,700pts, which factors in a 5% discount to the 3-year moving average P/E.



• Very underowned. Foreign investors have been making a beeline for Malaysia, visiting companies and touring Iskandar Malaysia. The renewed interest is the result of myriad factors including Bursa Malaysia’s perceived defensive qualities, the Najib administration’s transformation programmes and severe underownership of the local stockmarket due to the massive selldown after the 2008 general elections. Foreign funds remain extremely underweighted in Malaysia and a return to neutral weightings would have a very significant impact on the market.



• Elections good for the market. The 2011 Budget announced in Oct appeared to us as a populist pre-election budget. The question is which election – general elections or Sarawak state elections? We believe it is the latter though we think it does not matter as either election augurs well for the market since the period leading up to elections is typically investor-friendly. This is particularly true for Umno party elections where the KLCI has historically rallied 30% in the 1-year periodbefore polling. For 2011, we expect pump-priming efforts to intensify, negative policies to be kept to a minimum and speculative activities to pick up steam. • Prefer cyclicals and GLCs. 2011 is likely to turn out to be a good trading year for the market. Although risks remain relatively high, returns should be high and quick too. We expect continued volatility but with an upward bias as liquidity fuels the market. Our preferred sectors are those in the cyclical space including banking, construction, property, oil & gas and auto which stand to benefit from renewed investor confidence and higher risk appetite. GLCs should also gain prominence as investors speculate on those that will gain from pre-election government largesse.




Valuation and recommendation
Maintain OVERWEIGHT on Malaysia

KLCI target recently raised from 1,610 points to 1,700 points

Although we are still wary of the less favourable risk-to-reward ratio for the market after the V-shaped rebound, momentum seems to favour the bulls as 1) the various transformation programmes will continue to reap low-lying fruits, 2) foreign funds continue to view emerging markets and Malaysia favourably given their undemanding valuations, and 3) election fever is heating up and the pre-election period is very favourable for equities. In view of the upbeat outlook and big catalysts for the market, we maintain our OVERWEIGHT weighting on Malaysia and our recently raised our end-11 KLCI target of 1,700 points. Our revised KLCI target is based on 14.5x P/E as we recently halved our discount to the market’s 3-year moving average P/E to 5%. We note the possibility of further upside to our target if the re-rating persists for the entire region. Should we remove the discount altogether, our KLCI target would rise to around 1,800 points while a slight premium of 5% would push it up to a mind-boggling 1,884 points.



KLCI target basis is not aggressive

We could also apply the 3-year moving average P/E of 15x, which is where the midcycle P/E is. This is not an aggressive target as valuations could stretch to as high as 18-19x towards the later part of the market cycle. On a P/BV basis, however, valuations are slightly above the mid-cycle P/BV of 2.2x though still below the latestage peak of around 2.8x. Should EPS be revised upwards over the course of 2011 as it was throughout 2010, P/E valuations would be even more attractive, providing further upside to the KLCI target.



Malaysia’s bull run still has legs

Bull markets in Malaysia lasted on average 26 months. This bull market started in earnest in Apr 09, i.e. 20 months ago. Assuming it peaks in the 26th month, that means that 1H11 will be robust and the time to take profits will be mid-year. However, bull markets can last much longer than 26 months. The longest was double that at 52 months. The average bull market enjoyed gains of 133%. So far, this bull market is up less than 100% from its trough. Given that the trough was hit during unusual circumstances, i.e. the global financial crisis, the rebound should be stronger. Recall that during the Asian financial crisis, the KLCI surged 235% from trough to peak.



Malaysia’s premiums have narrowed

Malaysia’s valuations remain at a premium over its regional peers. But the premium has narrowed in view of Thailand’s and Indonesia’s massive rallies this year. The P/E premium used to range between 15% and 20% but has narrowed to 10-12%. Malaysia’s dividend yield is one of the most attractive in the region at around 5%. We forecast ROEs to remain above 15% and net gearing to decline to 4% by 2012. This is a vast improvement on 2003 when net gearing was 65%.



Source/转贴/Extract/:CIMB Research
Publish date:05/01/11

CIMB: Key drivers for Malaysia Market in 2011 -Elections, elections, elections

Preparations for elections gathering pace

The 2011 Budget announced on 15 Oct appeared to us to be a feel-good populist budget that will pave the way for elections. Toll rates on PLUS’s highways were left alone for the next five years, the dreaded sin taxes and real property gains tax did not feature in the budget and construction projects were aplenty. The question that must be asked is whether this heralds general elections or Sarawak state elections. We believe it is the latter as Sarawak state elections have to be held by Jul 2011 but the general elections do not have to be called until 2Q13, which is more than two years away. We observe that the National Front has won only five of the 13 by-elections held since the Mar 08 general elections compared to eight by the Opposition. However, it won the two most recent by-elections, which came after the people-friendly 2011 Budget.



Pre-elections period is normally good for the market

Besides Sarawak and general elections, Umno party elections were originally slated to be in 2011. However, party elections have been delayed by up to 18 months and will be held shortly after general elections. Regardless of the type of election, they augur well for the stockmarket as the period leading up to elections is typically investorfriendly. We expect pump-priming efforts to ratchet up in 2011, negative policies to be kept to a minimum and speculative activities to pick up steam. In the previous elections, the KLCI gained 5% in the 12 months before the elections were held and surged 17% thereafter. The impact of Umno party elections on the market is even more significant. In the past nine occasions, the market rallied an average of 30% during the 12 months leading up to Umno party elections. On the other hand, the KLCI fell an average of 7% in the 12 months after party elections. The clear signal from the market’s performance pre and post Umno party elections is to buy ahead of the elections and sell shortly after it. For general elections, the results must be favourable to the incumbent for the market to rally after the polling date. In the case of the 2008 elections, the KLCI plunged 100 points the first trading day after elections and circuit breakers kicked in for the first time ever.





The market has historically viewed continuity positively

While the outcome of the next general elections is important in determining the direction of the market after elections, it is extremely difficult to predict given the shocking results of the last elections in Mar 2008. Recall that the 2008 elections were unprecedented in that the National Front lost its two-thirds majority in parliament for the first time since the 1969 elections. Its share of the popular vote also fell to its lowest in nearly 40 years. Unlike the situation in 1969, however, the National Front did not regain its majority in parliament by including new parties into the coalition and the opposition parties grouped together to form Pakatan Rakyat. A convincing win for the incumbent has historically been positive for the market.



Source/转贴/Extract/:CIMB Research
Publish date:05/01/11
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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