Saturday, December 18, 2010

The Spice family

DBSV: Sponsored REITs ahead of the acquisition game

Sponsored REITs ahead of the acquisition game
Current yield gaps between the physical market and implied REIT valuations show that REITs in the industrial & hospitality sectors, retail and healthcare have positive yield gaps, with industrial offering the widest spreads. The office sector continues to see negative yield spreads, which point to continued need for income support arrangements so that assets will have time to stabilize and for earnings to catch up in the coming years, in order to make acquisitions accretive.

The positive outlook on asset values in Singapore boosted by the ample liquidity is likely to increase the competition for assets from private funds/investors who could have a lower required rate of return, thus pricing REITs out of some property deals. As such, we believe that S-REITs could continue to head overseas in search for growth. While we believe it is a viable option to diversify its earnings base, more importantly, REITs have to address potential forex exposure and tax leakages for overseas acquisitions against the benefits of yield accretion to its existing portfolio.

We continue to like the sponsored REIT model, notwithstanding that they continue to explore 3rd party opportunities to remain ahead of peers. Their sponsors can offer a pipeline of assets for the REITs to purchase or it could act as a warehouse for new assets in cases where it is nonaccretive to purchase the asset at the onset, stabilize its earnings and then offer it to the REIT for purchase at a later date. Thus, sponsored REITs have better growth visibility in the medium term.

In addition, industrial REITs are likely to continue to enjoy better acquisition growth potential given the relatively higher yields of industrial assets (vs current implied yields of industrial REITs) and each transaction tend to be of lower values compared to other asset classes.

While we have seen several of these S-REITs purchasing from their respective sponsors in 2010, we see several potential opportunities that REITs could tap in 2011.

CDL HT: A low gearing position of 21% gives debt-funded headroom of up to S$600m (up to c40% gearing). Management remains keen to acquire Studio M hotel from
sponsor M&C Holdings in addition to other hotel assets that they are understood to be looking to acquire in the region. MLT: Its Sponsor, Mapletree Investments has assets worth up to S$300m that are completed/completing which could be injected in the near future.

K-REIT could purchase One Financial Centre (understood to be 63% pre-committed as of Sept’10) in the medium term once it completes in 2011.

Cache Logistics Trust: sponsor CWT limited has over 3m sqft of completing/completed warehouse space that could be offered to Cache in the medium term.

Ascott REIT, who has a right of first refusal (“ROFR”) from its sponsor, Ascott Group, could potentially acquire Ascott Raffles Place, which is understood to be for sale.

Retail REITs like FCT, which had previously stated that they are likely to purchase Bedok Mall from their sponsor after completion. CMT and CRCT can potentially inject properties that are currently under incubation by the sponsors, which could be offered to the trust. In the longer term Industrial REITs like A-REIT and a-itrust could also acquire projects currently under development from sponsor Ascendas Group.


DBSV: Singapore REITs -Measuring the cost of Interest rate hikes

Measuring the cost of Interest rate hikes
Taking advantage of the low interest rate environment. S-REITs have been pro-active in their capital management strategy aiming towards extending their debt expiry profile and refinancing existing debt ahead of expiry. Since the beginning of the year, in view of the large proportion of debt expiring in the coming 2 years, S-REITs have taken advantage of the improving capital markets and low interest rate environment and re-financed existing debt into loans with longer tenures. Additionally, they have also expanded their sources of debt through the issue of multi-term notes & convertible bonds. The total S-REIT debt currently stands at of S$17.5bn, where an estimated 19% (S$3.4 bn) and 24% (S$4.2bn) are scheduled for renewal in 2011 and 2012 respectively, down by 30% and 25% since the middle of the year. The average length of debt expiry currently stands at 2.8 years.

Interest rate environment likely to stay low for now. DBS economist believes that the current low interest rate environment is likely to stay at least to the end of 2011, which will be beneficial for S-REITs, as they are likely to continue to enjoy interest savings on refinancing their debt in 2011. Increasing financial flexibility with average gearing of 34.4% post acquisition. Post acquisitions (including the planned purchase of MBFC by K-REIT and Suntec REIT), the average S-REIT sector’s aggregate leverage still remain relatively low at c34.4% (below most S-REIT managers’ comfortable range of between 40-45%). We note that there has been an increase in the number of assets that are unencumbered, due to more unsecured loan issued in the past few months. This empowers S-REITs with more financial flexibility going forward.

High portion of S-REIT debts are fixed. Based on our estimates, with the recent issues of fixed rate MTNs & through refinancing activities to date, a majority of S-REIT debt is now secured in fixed-rate instruments. Therefore, this should limit the impact of potential interest rate hikes on the S-REITs distributable income in the future.

Based on our sensitivity analysis in the table below, a 50 bps increase in interest rates will have minimal impact (estimated at –0.2% to –3.2%) on S-REITs FY11 distributable income.



DBSV: Singapore REITs The quest for growth

Singapore REITs
The quest for growth
• S-REITs offer FY11 yields of 6.1%, an attractive 340 bps spread against long bonds
• As inflation inches higher, we prefer SREITs with ability to continue delivering strong organic growth
• Strong balance sheets to leverage on in the chase for further acquisitions
• BUY FCT, P-Life, Cache, MLT, CDL HT, ART, CMT

Normalized FY11F yield of 6.1%. The S-REIT sector now trades at a normalized FY11F distribution yield of c6.1%, slightly below its historical mean of c6.5%. Spreads have narrowed but still remain attractive at c340bps above the long-term government bond yield, currently at c2.7%.

The quest for DPU growth. S-REITs offer a good hedge against inflation given that earnings growth can potentially outpace inflation, which is expected to inch higher to 3.2% in 2011. We prefer S-REITs with the ability to deliver growing distributions organically while having the opportunity to acquire accretively. We continue to hold the view that hospitality and retail sectors offer a more robust outlook on the back of expected strong visitor arrivals in 2011. Office REITs are expected to see topline pressure from negative reversions in 2011 though the sector is on an uptrend.

Interest rate hikes to have minimal impact on distributable income. Given the current low interest rate environment, S-REITs have taken the opportunity to refinance, lengthen the debt maturity profile as well as widen their sources of debt, hence enjoying savings in interest. DBS economist expects interest rate hikes only towards the end of 2011. Even then, our scenario analysis reveals that the impact on S-REITs FY11 distributable income is limited to -0.2 to - 3.0% as majority of the S-REITs have hedged/fixed their interest rate positions.

Industrial & Sponsored REITs have potential for further accretive acquisitions. Even after acquiring cS$6bn of assets YTD, S-REIT sector gearing remains low at 34.4%. Further growth from acquisitions is possible and we look towards the industrial REITs for their ability to acquire earnings accretive assets given the relative higher yields of industrial assets while sponsored REITs continue to offer long-term portfolio growth visibility to investors from potential asset injections in the medium term.

Stock picks. CMT, FCT, CDL HT and Ascott REIT are expected to deliver strong organic growth potential coupled with sponsor injection possibilities. P-Life offers downside protection as revenue is pegged to inflation. MLT and Cache offer potential earnings surprise given their visible sponsor pipeline.





全長60公里‧耗資360億‧雙溪毛糯加影捷運明年7月動工

全長60公里‧耗資360億‧雙溪毛糯加影捷運明年7月動工
Created 12/18/2010 - 19:32

(雪蘭莪‧梳邦18日訊)估計耗資360億令吉的捷運系統(MRT)――雙溪毛糯―加影路線工程,將於明年7月展開。

這條全程長60公里,包括10公里地下隧道的捷運系統工程,也是政府所推動的最大型基建計劃,是於週五召開的內閣會議上獲通過。

首相拿督斯里納吉於週六在皇家空軍基地舉行的記者會上透露,政府希望通過這條捷運路線工程的展開,全面帶動政府轉型計劃下的“大吉隆坡”計劃。

工程5至6年完成

他說,雙溪毛糯―加影線捷運系統,是政府推動的“大吉隆坡”計劃下的其中一項捷運工程,估計這項工程需時5至6年完成。

雙溪毛糯―加影線捷運川行多個人口稠密的住宅區,包括哥打白沙羅、珍珠白沙羅、萬達鎮、敦依斯邁花園、白沙羅高原、蕉賴、敦胡先翁花園及無拉港。

納吉表示,一旦這項捷運系統完工,受惠的公眾多達120萬人,其中包括估計每日40萬名乘客。

他說,政府還在研究雙溪毛糯―加影線捷運的各個車站,進一步詳情將會於較後時公佈。

他說,“大吉隆坡”計劃下的其它捷運工程,也將會於明年1月起公佈。

他表示,當“大吉隆坡”計劃下的所有捷運工程竣工,公共交通使用率將從2009年的12%提高至2020年的50%,其中由輕快鐵提供的捷運服務將佔所有公共交通載客量的50%。

雙溪毛糯捷運銜接鐵運

首相納吉表示,政府優先推動雙溪毛糯―加影線捷運工程,是因為研究顯示這個地區缺乏完善的捷運服務。

他說,這條捷運路線下的交替站,都將與電動火車、單軌火車及其他輕快鐵站銜接,以利便使用者。

他也說明,360億令吉的造價只是雙溪毛糯―加影線工程的初步估價,實際總開銷還得視最後招標及根據建材市價而定。

雙溪毛糯―加影捷運是巴生河流域捷運系統的首項計劃,根據納吉的說法,陸路公共交通委員會將在“城市公共交通大藍圖”下研究其他全新捷運路線。

製造13萬工作機會

首相納吉表示,雙溪毛糯―加影捷運系統的興建不只將改善巴生河流域的公共交通,在工程進行期間可以製造多達13萬個工作機會。

他說,根據預測,這項捷運計劃於2011至2020年期間,即施工及營運期間,每年將可以為國家帶來30至40億令吉的收入。此外,其他相關方面的收入高達80至120億令吉。

他在記者會上透露,MMC-Gamuda聯營有限公司已獲政府委為雙溪毛糯―加影線工程的合作夥伴。

他說,確保所有工程如期完成及沒有超支,是MMC-Gamuda的責任。這是因為工程若出現超支或展延,政府無需承擔任何責任,而是由MMC-Gamuda負責。

納吉說,雙溪毛糯―加影線工程將分成不同的工程配套由承包商投標,政府將決定所有工程的招標結果。

他強調,為確保工程公平及透明,MMC-Gamuda不可以參與工程配套的投標,除了地下隧道工程例外。

他說,國家基建公司(Prasarana Negara)是雙溪毛糯―加影輕快鐵工程的擁有者,而工程監督機構則是陸路公共交通委員會。

雙溪毛糯-加影輕快鐵路線
‧工程擁有者:國家基建公司
‧監督機構:陸路公共交通委員會
‧合作傳遞夥伴:MMC-Gamuda1
‧公里:全程長60公里,共35個車站
‧經費:估計耗資360億令吉
‧受惠人數:120萬名公眾,每日乘客估計達40萬人。
‧ 路徑地點:哥打白沙羅、珍珠白沙羅、萬達鎮、敦依斯邁花園、白沙羅高原、蕉賴、敦胡先翁花園及無拉港。


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Source/转贴/Extract/:www.guangming.com.my
Publish date:18/12/2010

Friday, December 17, 2010

熱錢流竄‧波動劇烈‧馬股明年上看1700

Created 12/17/2010 - 19:08

(吉隆坡17日訊)國際熱錢蜂擁流向新興市場,區域股市短期恐陷更激烈波動,但分析員認為全球經濟無雙底衰退之虞,馬股料獲經濟轉型計劃等利多因素扶持,2011年漲勢有望更上一層樓。

興業研究表示,基於3大工業國量化寬鬆政策,以及發達國家陷入債務困難,成長前景較好的新興經濟近月將吸引更多熱錢流入,但縱然前景相對樂觀,但流動性推動的漲潮普遍無法長期維持,而特定情況更可能令資金提前撤離。

熱錢流入市場波動激烈

“雖然新興亞洲市場可能未陷入全球日趨高漲的風險中,加上外資流入料處於高峰,我們預期市場在來月進入更激烈波動的階段。”

興業研究認為,雖然馬股短期波動,但相信市場在2011年仍有更上一層樓的空間,主要是全球經濟料無雙底衰退風險,而本地經濟穩健成長將反映在企業盈利成長上,料可為投資者創造新股東價值。

“有鑑於此,根據2012年15倍中期盈利週期計算,我們上調2011年富時綜合指數年杪目標,從1640點增至1700點。”

馬股本地重大活動和潛在催化因素包括,經濟轉型計劃旗下聯邦土地重新開發等多元工程/合約頒佈、砂拉越州選舉和提前全國大選、依斯干達經濟特區發展、更多併購活動,以及政府相關公司更積極改革。

建築產業成焦點

不過,興業研究指出,雖然短期熱錢可能持續推升股市,但建議投資者持續警惕和繼續減持或“高位減倉”(Top Slice)特定消息流和流動性推動,以及估值日趨昂貴的股項。

“但我們建議投資者應在股市出現顯著回跌時,趁機進場累積基本面良好的股項,以取得長期超越大市表現,相信建築和產業領域將是短期焦點所在,而銀行、石油與天然氣、種植、木材、博彩和通訊領域前景也普遍正面。”



urce URL: http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/42056

CIMB picks in 2011

CIMB picks in 2011

Cheapest Malaysian bank

Affin Holdings is an Outperform as we have witnessed strong traction in its earnings growth in the past seven quarters and the trend is expected to continue. We are particularly positive on its robust loan growth of 11-17% since Jun 09 compared with low-to mid-single digits previously. Affin's loan growth has been consistently above the industry's pace since Jun 09, reflecting the group's ability to gain market share despite being one of the smallest banks in Malaysia. The potential share price triggers in the near term are (1) above-industry loan growth, (2) better-than-expected net interest margin, and (3) undemanding valuations. The acquisition of Bank Ina Perdana will provide Affin a foothold in the underpenetrated and fast-growing Indonesian market and this will help to support the group's longer-term earnings growth.



Axiata is our topregional telco pick

Axiata is an Outperform on the back of its modest EPS growth, rising FCFE yield and strengthening balance sheet. We expect its units in the Indian subcontinent to take over the reins of growth as its assets in Malaysia and Indonesia mature. There is room for dividends to surprise given its strong FCFE and rapidly falling gearing. We maintain our SOP-based target price of RM5.90 and continue to rate Axiata as our top pick for exposure to the regional telcos. Likely re-rating catalysts are positive earnings and dividend surprises.



Gamuda is a direct beneficiary of the MRT project

Gamuda – We are encouraged by the progress of the proposed KL MRT, which is now slated to start work in Jul 2011. This suggests that project approval, tender process and project awards are likely to come through within the next 2-6 months. A major milestone would be Cabinet approval which should occur by end-2010. This is positive for Gamuda as it has a good chance of bagging the RM12bn-14bn tunneling works. We estimate a 6-10% enhancement to FY11-12 earnings and 3-9% boost to our target price if the group succeeds in clinching the job. We maintain our Outperform call and RNAV-based target price of RM4.96. The main re-rating catalyst is progress and award of the MRT project. Gamuda is one of our top construction picks.



Kencana is an O&G stock with strong newsflow

Kencana benefited from a steady flow of projects in Malaysia, Vietnam, India and Australia in 2010, landing 13 jobs worth RM1bn which took its order book to RM2.1bn. Being one of the bigger, most efficient fabricators, Kencana is poised to secure more contracts. We expect the company to continue to clinch new projects over the next few months and stay a contract headliner as it is vying for works worth RM5.2bn in Malaysia and at least US$300m in India. It is also gunning for contracts to develop the Sepat and Berantai marginal fields, which could transform the company into an oilfield developer and producer.



MAS is top airline pick in Malaysia

MAS – We continue to rate MAS an Outperform as it is turning into a more aggressive growth-oriented company. Over the next three years, the airline will be taking delivery of the majority of the 56 aircraft it has ordered. They include new-generation narrowand wide-body planes like the B737-800, A330 and A380 that will fundamentally lower its structural costs and increase the attractiveness of its cabin offerings to passengers. After years of an incoherent response to the low-cost threat, MAS recently started a separately managed low-cost business under Firefly with the intention of regaining some of the 50%+ market share lost to its low-cost rival over the past seven years. Also, MAS’s extremely expensive fuel hedges carried over from pre-crisis days will finally expire at the end of 2011, potentially leading to a substantial earnings uplift in 2012.



MRCB is a dual construction and property GLC play

MRCB makes an entry as one of our top picks for 2011 for a construction, property and GLC play. We think that newsflow is likely to pick in 2011 on the much talkedabout 3,300-acre Sg Buloh Land as the government rolls out the ETP. MRCB is likely to emerge as one of the key beneficiaries and participate both as a turnkey contractor and a developer. Newsflow on details of the merger with IJM Land is another re-rating catalyst for the stock. We reiterate our TRADING BUY recommendation and target price of RM2.76, which is based on an unchanged 10% RNAV discount.



RHB is top banking sector pick

RHB Capital is an Outperform and our top pick for the banking sector with a target price of RM10.50. We see numerous catalysts for the group including (1) robust investment banking income supported by robust deal flow, (2) brisk loan growth in the mid-teens, driven primarily by consumer loans and lending to public sector, and (3) network expansion via its innovative EASY outlets and tie-ups with big corporates for faster new customer acquisition. We project net earnings growth of 15-17% for FY11- 12. The acquisition of Bank Mestika, which will be completed by 1Q11, will help the group to establish a foothold in the underpenetrated and fast-growing market in Indonesia.



SapCrest is top O&G sector pick

SapuraCrest – Armed with a RM13bn order book which is the highest in the sector, SapuraCrest continues to eye deals in Malaysia and overseas. The company is keen to explore opportunities in the development of marginal fields and appears to have a good chance of securing at least four of the remaining deepwater projects at the Malikai, Pisangan, Ubah Crest and Kamunsu fields. Meanwhile, in the Timor Sea off Australia, SapuraCrest is believed to be the frontrunner for a project that will require the decommissioning of the Montara platform. Overseas revenue contribution has risen from 18% of group revenue in FY1/07 to 30% in FY10 and is expected to hit 40- 50% in three years’ time.



Sime is Malaysia’s largest planter

Sime Darby – We like Sime Darby as it is a liquid and cheap proxy for rising CPO prices. In 2011, we expect the new CEO’s efforts to turn around the group and rising CPO price to prevail over worries about the huge losses at its energy & utilities division in the previous year. There is potential for recovery of some of the provisions if the group is successful in claiming part of the cost overruns and divesting its groundwater project. Sale of non-core assets could lead to earnings upside for Sime from potential gains on the sale and reduced overheads though we do not expect it to be substantial. Its foreign shareholding level has fallen close to its all-time low of 13% from a high of 21%. Factors that could catalyse the stock include higher CPO price, favourable newsflow on key management changes, sale of non-core assets and the potential listing of individual business divisions.



WCT is Malaysia’s top subcontractor

WCT’s latest RM1.4bn project win in Qatar and the integrated complex concession at the new LCCT raised the group's profile as the biggest beneficiary of mega jobs in the Middle East and open tender jobs locally. The group still has a strong chance of bagging more projects in the next six months, with potential contract awards in 2011 matching the RM2bn secured in 2010. WCT’s share price performance has lagged behind IJM’s and Gamuda’s, creating a buying opportunity. The stock remains an Outperform with an unchanged target price of RM4.21, pegged to a 10% discount to its RNAV. WCT is one of our top picks for the construction sector.



CIMB: KLCI Key drivers for 2011

Foreign funds boost

Foreigners coming backin a big way?

In 2H10, foreign investors made a beeline for Malaysia as they visited companies and toured Iskandar Malaysia. The reasons for the renewed interest include Bursa Malaysia’s perceived defensive qualities, the new administration’s various transformation programmes and severe underownership of the local stock market. Foreign funds remain extremely underweighted in Malaysia and the stockmarket has been disproportionately sold down since the 2008 general elections. Malaysia’s weighting in EM Asia is still around 2.5%, a fraction of its pre-Asian crisis levels and still low compared to even the 4% level before the global financial crisis. Statistics from Bursa Malaysia confirm this – foreign ownership in Malaysia is 22%, still below the pre-global crisis level of around 27%. A return to neutral weightings by foreign funds would have a very significant impact on the market.



Foreign funds preferfamiliar, big-cap and liquid stocks

Foreign shareholding has risen substantially for stocks that are favourites of foreigners such as AirAsia, CIMB, E&O and Public Bank. Well-managed foreign-owned companies such as BAT and Guinness also saw a big increase in foreign ownership. What is surprising is that foreign funds have not limited their purchases to only big-cap blue chips or even just liquid stocks. Smaller-cap stocks with relatively low liquidity such as Mudajaya, CI Holdings, Daibochi, Latexx, Mah Sing and MCIL have also seen a sizeable increase in foreign ownership. The interest in these stocks, however, could have been stoked by our positive reports on the companies. The selldown by foreign shareholders was most pronounced for Alliance Financial, Gamuda, IOI Corp, Media Prima, Petra Perdana, SP Setia and WCT. We are also not too surprised by the selldown of some names such as Gamuda, WCT, IOI Corp and SP Setia which were laggards for most of the year and only started to ourperform significantly in 2H. Should foreign funds return to Malaysia in a big way, we expect the companies that are familiar to them to be the biggest winners.





Elections, elections, elections
Preparations for elections gathering pace

The 2011 Budget announced on 15 Oct appeared to us to be a feel-good populist budget that will pave the way for elections. Toll rates on PLUS’s highways were left alone for the next five years, the dreaded sin taxes and real property gains tax did not feature in the budget and construction projects were aplenty. The question that must be asked is whether this heralds general elections or Sarawak state elections. We believe it is the latter as Sarawak state elections have to be held by Jul 2011 but the general elections do not have to be called until 2Q13, which is more than two years away. We observe that the National Front has won only five of the 13 by-elections held since the Mar 08 general elections compared to eight by the Opposition. However, it won the two most recent by-elections, which came after the people-friendly 2011 Budget.



Pre-elections period is normally good for the market

Besides Sarawak and general elections, Umno party elections were originally slated to be in 2011. However, party elections have been delayed by up to 18 months and will be held shortly after general elections. Regardless of the type of election, they augur well for the stockmarket as the period leading up to elections is typically investorfriendly. We expect pump-priming efforts to ratchet up in 2011, negative policies to be kept to a minimum and speculative activities to pick up steam. In the previous elections, the KLCI gained 5% in the 12 months before the elections were held and surged 17% thereafter. The impact of Umno party elections on the market is even more significant. In the past nine occasions, the market rallied an average of 30% during the 12 months leading up to Umno party elections. On the other hand, the KLCI fell an average of 7% in the 12 months after party elections. The clear signal from the market’s performance pre and post Umno party elections is to buy ahead of the elections and sell shortly after it. For general elections, the results must be favourable to the incumbent for the market to rally after the polling date. In the case of the 2008 elections, the KLCI plunged 100 points the first trading day after elections and circuit breakers kicked in for the first time ever.



The market has historically viewed continuity positively

While the outcome of the next general elections is important in determining the direction of the market after elections, it is extremely difficult to predict given the shocking results of the last elections in Mar 2008. Recall that the 2008 elections were unprecedented in that the National Front lost its two-thirds majority in parliament for the first time since the 1969 elections. Its share of the popular vote also fell to its lowest in nearly 40 years. Unlike the situation in 1969, however, the National Front did not regain its majority in parliament by including new parties into the coalition and the opposition parties grouped together to form Pakatan Rakyat. A convincing win for the incumbent has historically been positive for the market.









CIMB: Liquidity-fuelled pre-election rally

Liquidity-fuelled pre-election rally
OVERWEIGHT
2011 Tgt. Index: 1,700

• Significant trading catalysts. The KLCI confounded sceptics in 2010 when it scaled new all-time highs, capping two years of a V-shaped recovery. 2011 looks set to be another good year, driven by foreign funds which have strayed from the beaten path in search of higher returns in emerging markets and also election fever as elections are generally positive for the market. Malaysia remains underowned by foreign funds, whose holdings are still worth 30% less than before the global crisis. While we think it is too early to call for general elections, we note that Sarawak must hold state elections by Jul 2011. Umno party elections should be held shortly after general elections. We continue to rate Malaysia an OVERWEIGHT and raise our end-11 KLCI target from 1,610 to 1,700pts as we halve the discount to the 3-year moving average P/E to 5%. Accordingly, we have raised the target prices for 32 stocks under our coverage.



• 2010 was another strong year. After rebounding 43% in 2009, the KLCI gained 18% YTD, in the process breaking many records including the previous high for the KLCI. Domestic factors that stoked the market include the government’s transformation efforts such as the Economic Transformation Programme, the New Economic Model and the 10th Malaysia Plan. The market ran into headwinds towards mid-year as investor fret over a double-dip in Europe and the US. But foreign funds turned sizeable net buyers in 2H following the waning of double-dip fears and rising awareness of the stronger growth potential of emerging markets.



• Very underowned. Foreign investors have been making a beeline for Malaysia, visiting companies and touring Iskandar Malaysia. The renewed interest is the result of myriad factors including Bursa Malaysia’s perceived defensive qualities, the Najib administration’s transformation programmes and severe underownership of the local stockmarket due to the massive selldown after the 2008 general elections. Foreign funds remain extremely underweighted in Malaysia and a return to neutral weightings would have a very significant impact on the market.



• Elections good for the market. The 2011 Budget announced in Oct appeared to us as a populist pre-election budget. The question is which election – general elections or Sarawak state elections? We believe it is the latter though we think it does not matter as either election augurs well for the market since the period leading up to elections is typically investor-friendly. This is particularly true for Umno party elections where the KLCI has historically rallied 30% in the 1-year periodbefore polling. For 2011, we expect pump-priming efforts to intensify, negative policies to be kept to a minimum and speculative activities to pick up steam.



• Prefer cyclicals and GLCs. 2011 is likely to turn out to be a good trading year for the market. Although risks remain relatively high, returns should be high and quick too. We expect continued volatility but with an upward bias as liquidity fuels the market. Our preferred sectors are those in the cyclical space including banking, construction, property, oil & gas and auto which stand to benefit from renewed investor confidence and higher risk appetite. GLCs should also gain prominence as investors speculate on those that will gain from pre-election government largesse.

CIMB: Malaysian Airline -Radical transformation on the cards

Malaysian Airline System Bhd
2011 OUTLOOK
OUTPERFORM Maintained
RM2.07 @07/12/10
Target: RM3.00
Radical transformation on the cards



• Maintain OUTPERFORM. MAS is en route to a radical transformation of its structural costs as 56 passenger aircraft will be delivered from Boeing and Airbus over the next four years and it has 30 more options that has not yet been exercised. A one-for-one replacement with its present aged fleet will halve the average fleetage to just six years by 2013. This process will significantly improve fuel efficiency, reduce maintenance costs, improve the product to world-class standards, justify an increase in fares and yield intangible benefits like greater pilot and crew work satisfaction and improved staff morale. The reduction in structural costs that could permanently lift MAS’s profitability range underpins our OUTPERFORM call. Our target price stays at RM3, based on 6x CY12 EPS.



• Process will take time. MAS will take delivery of three new planes in 2010, followed by eight in 2011, 13 in 2012 and 17 in 2013, 13 in 2014 and two in 2015. This fleet replacement process will take several years and the benefits will be more visible only in 2012-13. Over the past year, MAS’s yield recovery has lagged behind its peers in Singapore or HK as it is less leveraged to a business travel recovery. As a result, MAS’s share price has not re-rated as much as SIA (Outperform, TP: S$20.50) or AirAsia (Outperform, TP: RM3.85).

Thursday, December 16, 2010

櫥窗粉飾未現‧政治緊張衝擊‧馬股丟失1500點

Created 12/16/2010 - 18:30

(吉隆坡16日訊)美國和日本中行報告引發投資者對全球經濟復甦疑慮,加上市場憂慮中國政府可能採取更多緊縮措施,促使亞洲股市週四普遍走低,拖累馬股跌破1,500點重要心理關口。

馬股全日開低走低,以跌2點的1507.10點開出,隨後在國會凍結民聯領袖拿督斯里安華等3位議員資格,引發國會示威活動消息傳出後,富時綜指在聯昌集團(CIMB, 1023, 主板金融組)等藍籌股龐大賣壓下開始節節敗退,最低下挫13.71點或0.91%至1495.39點,1500點心理關口宣告失守。

投資者短期或傾向套利

儘管富時綜指在午盤開始浮現零星買盤下,跌勢開始有所收斂,但仍無力扭轉頹勢,富時綜指終場掛1497.52點,跌11.58點。

黃氏唯高達研究表示,基於市場缺乏新鮮買進催化因素,投資者短期可能傾向套利,加上基備富時綜合指數開始呈現疲態,指數可能跌破1495點立即支持水平。

興業研究認為,富時綜合指數在核心藍籌股臨尾支持買盤烘托下,週三站穩1506點的10日移動平均線(SMA),但相關零星推力並不足以吸引更多潛在買盤,重新啟動復甦模式挑戰1524點和1532點關鍵阻力水平。

恐出現更多賣壓

“指數技術數據顯示未來恐出現更多賣壓,意味著指數可能失守10日移動平均線,40日移動平均線,甚至1500點心理水平,預計富時綜指短期可能回跌至1474點或1450點。”

此外,基金經理在中國升息疑慮,以及歐債陰霾縈繞不散下,採取“按兵不動”政策,也導致馬股櫥窗粉飾活動未見影蹤,未能為市場注入動力。

《路透社》報導指出,亞洲股市近期成交量下滑,已顯示歐債風暴和中國升息隱憂下,投資者傾向在場外觀望,而非將投資組合暴露在風險下。

短期料續橫擺走低

分析員指出,雖然市場持續看好股市走向,櫥窗粉飾更是股市造好的因素之一,但今年區域基金經理可能省下這個搶錢傳統,因今年亞洲基金回酬表現不俗,今年基金已提前完成升幅目標,因此推動馬股再創新高的機會較微。

以過去10年的紀錄來看,富時大馬綜指在12月份的表現,其中有8次是超越同年的11月份。

分析員說,市場信心依舊疲弱,外圍可能爆出負面消息,基金櫥窗粉飾行動或不熱絡,相信馬股表現料持續橫擺不定。

但他認為,雖然馬股沒有大型櫥窗粉飾活動出現,也不代表股市會大跌,主要是12月是全年最後一個月份,基金經理也不想股市大跌對全年業績帶來衝擊。

鑫資金投資董事經理張國林認為,基金經理普遍不時對旗下基金投資組合進行調整,因此馬股近期走勢顛簸與基金投資組合調整關係不大。

“馬股年杪櫥窗粉飾活動已買少減少,而今年股市整體表現不俗,更無粉飾的必要。”

另一基金經理表示,馬股近期走勢陷入橫擺確實有櫥窗粉飾跡象,但基金經理並不會趕在最後一刻才進行櫥窗粉飾活動,相信粉飾活動已幾近尾聲。

“馬股今年上漲約20%,而股市也非處在今年低位,基金沒有太大需要粉飾櫥窗。”

亞幣看淡抑制馬幣攀高

年終將近,大馬企業開始將海外資金匯回,帶動馬幣一度走高至3.1370,但區域股市一片慘淡,加上投資者長期看淡亞洲貨幣前景,抑制馬幣進一步攀高。

海外資金滙回顯現

聯昌投資銀行外

匯策略員古瑪表示,市場確實出現不少大馬企業將海外資金匯回的跡象,加上馬幣在10月和11月走勢相對落後,促使馬幣開始急起直追。

“馬幣兌美元今日可能在3.1250至3.14水平波動,並可能在年杪前上抵3.10關口。”

彭博社數據顯示,馬幣兌美元匯率在週三下挫0.6%後,今日成功調整步伐,盤中一度升值0.2%至3.1370關口。截至下午5時,馬幣掛3.1375。

受歐洲債務危機可能抑制市場對新興市場高回酬資產需求影響,馬幣第四季貶值1.6%為表現最差的亞洲貨幣,但馬幣今年為止已升值9.1%,有望創下1973年以來最佳表現。

不過,路透社調查顯示,投資者長期計劃減持馬幣、韓元,以及人民幣在內的8大亞洲貨幣。

該項調查向12位貨幣策略員進行訪問,以預測投資者未來對8大亞洲貨幣與美元交易中進行佈局。

相關調查透過正負3分來預測該貨幣的淨長期或短期形勢,而正3分意味著市場將顯著看漲美元。




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Source URL: http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/42021

MIDF: IATA raised forecast Impact on MAS

IATA raised forecast to $9.1b for 2011 but less upbeat

• IATA revised upwards its profit forecast for CY11 from USD5.3b to USD9.1b or up 71% driven by better utilization of aircraft at 8.3% in CY10 from 4.3% in CY09 on the back of: (1) highest number of passenger growth around 20%yoy in Asian region; (2) higher year-on-year global consumer confidence index from Asia region attributed from Thailand (+23ppt), Hong Kong (+10ppt), India (+9ppt), Malaysia (+7ppt), and Singapore (+6ppt); and (3) benign jet fuel price.

• Load factor improved to 78.8% for the 1st 10 months of CY10 vis-à-vis 75% corresponding period in view of better pricing power and healthy yields which is at 7.3% (-12% 1st 11 months of CY09).


• Despite their upward revision to profits, IATA has taken a cautious outlook for CY11 underpinned by: (1) higher fuel prices projected to be at US$84/bbl in CY11 from US$79/bbl in CY10 which will add an additional US$17.0bn to its operating and fuel bill to US$156bn; (2) moderate economic outlook despite stronger market in Asia, Middle East and South America; and (3) risk of excess capacity.


Impact on MAS

• No marginal impact to MAS as we have priced-in. Profit for FY11 is projected to increase by 170%yoy to RM839m be driven by (1) higher passenger growth by 12%yoy and higher fuel surcharge by 25%yoy, which were measured by higher RPK by 20%yoy (2) fuel cost is expected to reduce by 8%yoy, due to the expansion strategy of 5 B737-800 for 2011 which may reduce fuel consumption by 2% (3) continue appreciation of MYR against USD expected to increase non-core profit of Malaysia Airlines. In 3Q10, MAS had gain in derivative by 177% for both yoy and qoq, hence increase total profit during the quarter.

• Unchanged load factor for CY11. As at October 2010, MAS passenger load factor stood at 76% and we expect it will maintain the same figure throughout CY11 as we less upbeat on the factors mentioned above.

• Yield increased for the second quarter running. We like the fact that MAS has managed to increase its yields for the second sequential quarter at 2%yoy to 24 sen/RPK.

• Maintain BUY on MAS. We continue to like MAS due to its expansion plan of B737-800 and better operational efficiency for the last quarter results. Our TP is RM2.54 based on PER of 10.5x, which is the mean PER of its peers.

Phillip: STI at 3650 by 4Q11

we are generally positive on US, China and Asia. Amid this positive macro backdrop, for the STI, we are seeing PSR analysts forecasting collectively an 8%y-y rise in earnings for STI component stocks in 2011, rather low compared to the S&P500 forecasts, which makes us think earnings upgrades are very likely. We think we have finished the first leg of the bull market, when earnings rebounds faster than price and P/E compresses, and believe we started mid-cycle sometime around Sep10 when P/E bottomed out.

We should therefore see some mid-cycle P/E expansion going forward which we think will conspire with earnings growth to drive the STI to 3650 by 4Q11. Comparing with the previous mid-cycle expansion from 1Q05 to 2Q07, T4Q P/E basically went from 10.59x to 15.17x, a 43.2% expansion. This cycles’ mid-cycle starting P/E is 11.64x, a similar 43.3% expansion puts possible P/E expansion to 16.67x this time round.

As we don’t think the entire multiple expansion move will happen in 2011, we take a 15x multiple on our 2011 8%y-y earnings forecast which targets the STI at 3650. Why 15x?

Actually we worked backwards, the next major resistance on the STI is at 3650, divide that by our earnings forecast is a 15x multiple, well within the 11.64x to 16.67x range. As one an see from the charts (green lines) below, the first half of the mid-cycle sees unspectacular earnings growth, somewhat confirmed by our tepid 8%y-y forecast, and the STI is mainly driven by P/E expansion. As we think 8%y-y is too low anyway, with upside risk more likely, a few %pts upward revision also gives some room for error on the 15x target multiple. The final leg of the bull market, the 2nd half of the mid-cycle, is not here yet, as that is when earnings growth is phenomenal, and the peaking out of earnings is when selling begins in earnest. That seems far away yet, as earnings growth looks modest into 2011. Implicit in this STI target of 3650 is of course that we think the STI will break the 3300 barrier, our 2010 target (see Quarterly 2010-1-4), which was hit and rejected off recently. Given the earnings growth, and likelihood of upgrade, it’s very hard to make a case for the STI to be below 3300.


• The time frame of 4Q11 reflects the fact that while we think macro growth/inflation conditions are conducive, let us not forget that the issue with EZ debt is not over and will be recurring over the next year. Throw in the fact that fiscal stimulus 2 in the US has been enacted, perhaps bond vigilantes will start axing US treasuries from their portfolios, the yield spread could compress and the secular outlook threatened like it was May-Aug this year. You just can’t rule it out. Asian markets will see corrections on worries of over-tight policy. So we think it’ll be a hard grind to 3650, but so long as earnings come in and we don’t fall off the macro cliff no matter how close we teeter, we think in all probability stocks will appreciate and see through this mid-cycle phase.

SG Sector & Stock focus:
• Given that we are in a mid-cycle expansion phase, where growth moderates, solidifies, and the perception of sustainability takes hold, this is the time when businesses feel most confident about growth and begin to invest, as such suppliers of Capital Goods and related Basic Materials should post solid earnings.

• In the sector of Basic Materials, we like
Noble (S$2.11, FV S$2.33), from the fact that 27% projected earnings growth for FY11 is based on assets and new business it has already gathered during the crisis years, if we believe that management can execute, earnings should come in for a full-year contribution in this conducive macro backdrop.

Sunvic (S$0.605, FV S$0.95), a leading chemicals producer in China, has already done a massive 57% run from S$0.385 when our Hd of Research resumed coverage, we believe there is further upside as the stock warrants a P/E re-rating, ASPs have been trending higher on month, and it has strong EPS visibility going into FY11 and FY12, with 9M10 already surpassing the whole of FY09, now trading ~3.7x FY10 EPS.

• Capital Goods suppliers include
COSCO (S$2.14, FV S$2.32), as we are seeing a pickup in ship orders, and earnings are no-where near previous peaks yet, in fact less than 50% below.

SembMarine (S$5.12, FV S$5.46) and KeppelCorp (S$10.88, FV S$12.52) are two of the best rig-builders in the world, so long as oil stays above US$80, one can expect order flows to come in.

SembCorp (S$5.00, FV S$5.84), the provider of utilities services to industrials, looks to see growth in its utilities business from 2011 onward (Cascal acquisition, increased natural gas imports, 60% desalination stake in Oman, 49% coal fired plant in India) which could cause a re-rating of the stock.

Sunpower (S$0.37, FV S$0.57), the Chinese engineer and manufacturer of heat efficient solutions for industrials, has seen a 30% run up since coverage was initiated at S$0.285, its long term strategic partnership with Jiangsu Zhongneng (JZ) has born fruit as the recent contract announced was 55% of 2009’s revenue, as JZ capacity is projected to increase, Sunpower could be a beneficiary. For those with a bit more of a risk appetite (price has dropped 40% since buy initiation at S$0.34) and

a longer term horizon can consider Renewable Energy Asia (S$0.205, FV S$0.45), manufacturer of wind turbines and wind farm developer with China Datang (51:49 JV, minority), we see that losses have bottomed out with the latest result turning a profit, and as management tells us that its long term JV with China Datang to develop 6gw of wind farms is proceeding well, we see no reason why earnings wont come in for FY11 (Rmb0.08) and FY12 (Rmb0.2).

• Other stocks not in the above classifications but we think have good growth potential nonetheless includes

SATS (S$2.92, FV S$3.21), we believe it is a company in the mood to grow, evidenced by a proposed ~S$122m, 50.7% acquisition of TFK Corp, a supplier of ready meals to JAL in Japan. SATS will be looking to leverage on its expertise in ready meals and airline service. We look forward to positive news flow and EPS revisions to the upside.

For China Sunsine (S$0.275, FV S$0.36), the chemicals producer for rubber products, we expect revenue surprise in FY11 and FY12 from new products: insoluble sulphur and 6ppd. It has risen 17% since buy recommendation on Jan10.

Ziwo (S$0.375, FVS$0.47), the specialized fabric producer, may see renewed interest from its proposed TDR listing in 2011, capacity expansion to also make full contributions FY12.

Finally, we like canned vegetable and canned drinks processor, SinoGrandness (S$0.405, FV S$0.57), although it has run up 31% since the buy initiation at S$0.31, we think there will be significant FY11 contributions from its new canned drinks business to look forward too

CIMB: UNDERWEIGHT tanker shipping, Berlian Laju stays an Outperform

UNDERWEIGHT on tanker shipping. We are negative on the crude tanker shipping sector and are forecasting the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index to average 850 pts this year and 750 points in 2011. In September and October, TCE earnings revisited the lows of 2009 and were close to or below operating costs. Rates have since recovered on the back of the French strikes at the port of Fos-Lavera, delays at Turkey’s Bosporus Straits caused by winter fog and an increase in China’s oil imports in November. We expect the rest of 2010 to remain strong on the back of a cold winter in the northern hemisphere but view this as a purely seasonal trend. While demand for oil has recovered this year and spot chartering is active, the recovery has not been sufficient to offset the large pool of excess tankers. Given the record newbuilding deliveries expected in 2011, we expect freight rates to trend lower over the next 2-3 years.

Surplus laid bare by end of floating storage. Floating storage absorbed 50-60 crude tankers in 1H10 when the oil price contango was steeper. However, from mid- 2010, the profitability of floating storage dropped into negative territory with the flattening of the oil contango curve, prompting storage vessels to discharge their cargoes and re-enter the spot trading market. This exacerbated the tonnage oversupply.

Deliveries to reach crescendo in 2011. Although crude demand is expected to rise 2.2% this year, net tanker capacity has already expanded 4% in the first 11 months, aggravating the glut. We expect tanker capacity to increase 13.4% in 2011 just as crude demand growth is expected to slow to 1.5%. We also note that oil inventories across the OECD remain high.

MISC remains an Underperform with a target price of RM7.00, which we continue to base on 18x CY12 P/E. Potential de-rating catalysts include its expensive valuations and the dire conditions in the tanker sector.

BLTA stays an Outperform with a target price of Rp660, based on its sum-of-parts. Although chemical tanker rates are expected to remain weak in 2010-11 before rising in 2012, BLTA is trading at only 0.4x P/BV. The share price could be catalysed by the potential listing and growth of its cabotage business.

KE: CapitaLand has overreacted

15/12/10
CapitaLand’s share price has fallen by some 4% since its 3Q10 results, underperforming the Straits Times Index, which has declined by less than 0.5% in the same period. This is despite news on the positive take‐up rate during the initial launch of d’Leedon. We believe the market has overreacted and valuations remain attractive. Maintain BUY.

Our View
In late November, CapitaLand launched the 1,715‐unit d’Leedon (formerly Farrer Court). Of the initial 250 units released, 82% have been sold at an average of $1,680 psf. We maintain our overall ASP assumption of $1,750 psf, as we expect the developer to gradually up its asking price. Given its proximity to the Farrer Road MRT Station and a few popular schools, we expect demand to remain strong.

CapitaLand is divesting its stake in 163 strata‐titled units at The Adelphi for $218.1m. This values the development at $1,225 psf, which is 25% below our valuation of $1,645 psf. However, since the group only owns about 55.1% of the strata‐titled development, it would have been difficult to extract further value via asset enhancements on its own and a sale made sense.

Concerns over China’s property policies continue to weigh on CapitaLand’s share price. However, we are of the opinion that the market has overreacted because our sensitivity analysis shows that a 40% decline in property prices in China (which we think is highly unlikely) will only lead to a 19 cts/share decline in CapitaLand’s RNAV of $4.31/share.

Action & Recommendation
We believe that at a 15% trading discount to RNAV, valuations remain attractive. Re‐rating is likely if The Paragon, its flagship development in Shanghai, sees strong interest when it is launched in 1Q11. Maintain BUY with a target price of $4.74, pegged at a 10% premium to RNAV.

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

量化寬鬆再吹脹泡沫‧國行或重點打熱錢

Created 12/15/2010 - 18:30
(吉隆坡15日訊)美國聯邦儲備局維持利率不變,並確定維持6千億美元的購債計劃,料將進一步推高全球熱錢浪潮。興業研究認為,雖然大馬尚未浮現游資氾濫局面,惟為免陷入泡沫陷阱,不排除國家銀行會針對特定領域對症下藥。

首要處理家債問題
興業解釋,由於過去國行曾經在1993與1994年推出控制外資流入與短期熱錢政策,相信有了前車之鑑,國行目前仍有足夠經驗與工具可掌握局面。

其中,興業認為在家庭債務步步升高的風險下,預測國行會推出控制家庭債務措施,如限制信用卡負擔能力與縮短分期付款償還期限等。

截至今年8月,家庭債務對經濟成長已經從去年的76.6%提高至78.1%。

外資主要流入債券市場
興業指出,雖然過去幾個月大馬開始湧入大規模外資,促使股市與債市價值走高,惟國行仍未採取貨幣管制,主要是大部份外資流入標的仍是債券市場,其他市場仍未有過熱跡象。

今年首9個月外資流入固定收入票據規模按年增458億美元,至於同期流入組合投資(包括股市)的規模約414億令吉。

“外資流入固定收入票據趨勢在去年下半年已成形,去年3月時僅有422億令吉,到年杪時卻已提高至692億令吉,去年10月甚至一度創下1千270億令吉歷史紀錄,超越2008年4月時的1千265億令吉。這也間接讓大馬政府債券的10年回酬從2009年5月的4.38%降低至今年9月的3.61%。”

興業透露,雖然也有部份外資流入股市推動富時綜指再創新高,惟相對規模仍健康。尤其目前馬股市值對經濟規模約1.54倍,比較1993年大牛市時的3.6倍仍有一段距離。

“至於今年首10個月的M3貨幣供應也只成長8至9%,未見過熱,主要是部份流入外資被國行抹走。”

國行共抹走2351億游資
截至今年11月,國行抹走過多游資的規模已經提高至2千351億令吉,已經超越去年的2千233億令吉。

雖然如此,興業認為目前已在密切觀察國行對外資流入增加趨勢的容忍度,尤其在上個月的貨幣政策會議文告中,國行首次表達大型與波動資本流入的潛在風險,並承諾嚴密監測來確保市場沒有過熱。

“若外資持續大規模流入,並導致市場貨幣供應氾濫間接影響經濟成長與股市時,相信國行可能會出手抑制。”

系列措施穩定房價走勢
目前,國行已經推出特定的行政措施針對特定領域進行貨幣管制。包括宣佈購買第三間房子的貸款限制70%,以穩定產業市場走勢,並間接保障一般大眾仍有能力購買房子

“雖然今年上半年國內產業價格平均按年僅漲5%,不過巴生河流域與檳城的產業漲幅已偏高,並出現初期泡沫跡象。”
興業補充,預料國行會維持利率水平至明年下半年,除了避免吸引更多熱錢流入,也可間接刺激已經放緩國家經濟成長。
至於明年馬幣升值料也逐步升高,主要胥視經濟成長與區域國幣的走勢。

經濟未明朗
各國尋策管理泡沫
興業表示,美國維持次輪量化寬鬆政策規模,不僅會間接推動利差交易,還導致其他地區泡沫浮現,尤其是新興亞洲與發展中國家的資產價格,及原產品與原油價格。

因此,興業認為全球中行目前必須扮演避免泡沫的角色,建立一個精明的貨幣管理政策,才可避免市場貪婪與非理性繁榮。
興業解釋,除了美國外,日本長期陷入通貨緊縮,10月核心通膨已寫下連續20個月下滑紀錄,料持續維持寬鬆貨幣政策。
至於歐洲中行也表示會延遲撤退緊急流動性措施及購買政府債券,來對抗區域金融市場緊張提高的利空,及避免主權債券違約的風險。

“這暗示更多資金將湧往新興市場。”

印鈔過速或引泡沫
興業表示,美國兩輪量化寬鬆政策導致新興亞洲與發展中國家股票價格暴漲,其中摩根士丹利資本國際除日本外亞太指數從5月的511點已提高27.8%至11月的653.1點。

此外,原產品價格近期也暴漲,其中Thom Reuters Jeffries原產品價格指數從6月的248.9點提高28.2%,至11月9日的319.1點;原油價格也從5月24日的每桶65.96美元,攀漲35.5%至12月6日的89.38美元。

興業認為,從大馬1993至1994年的股市泡沫、2000年美國科技泡沫、2004年至2006年美國房屋泡沫、中國2007年股市泡沫至2008年的原油泡沫,可以看出這些都是貨幣現象造成的,即是市場資金供應過速。

中國料再度調高利率
興業也預料中國會持續提高儲備要求,限制貸款與允許人民幣逐步升值,以讓貨幣供應成長放緩。

“此外,我認為中國會再度調高利率,並可能採取緊縮政策來限制資本流入,用這種雙管齊下策略,以避免吸引更多大規模資本流入導致貨幣管理更複雜。”

source: sinchew.com.my

新台幣狂升‧傳索羅斯襲台

新台幣狂升‧傳索羅斯襲台
Created 12/15/2010 - 19:15

新台幣週二盤間兌美元衝破30元,知情人士透露,這波炒匯主力,就是上月於香港設立辦事處的“金融大鱷”索羅斯,旗下對衝基金近期瞄準新台幣,動作愈來愈大,“不只要見到二字頭,更要報當年被擊潰之仇”。

對此傳言,台灣中行決策高層表示“目前沒有”,但不排除這個可能;僅表示會緊盯熱錢動向,必要時出手,避免新台幣匯率由“華爾街那幫人”決定。

外商銀不認為索羅斯對衝基金進場

多數外商銀交易員對此表示,索羅斯在新加坡及香港炒匯,單筆下單至少有一兩百支美金,以新台幣近期量能研判,他們也不認為索羅斯對衝基金已進入新台幣市場。

新台幣兌美元週三早盤受補漲效應帶動、外資匯入及出口商拋匯,開盤後再呈跳漲並續創13年來盤中新高;惟整體量能不大,目前新台幣升勢稍稍冷卻。

週三盤中,新台幣兌美元報29.955,升值4.95分,盤中最高曾觸及29.880,前一高點為1997年10月20日的29.700,當時香港金融風暴令新台幣兩週內由28.5重挫至30.5。

台灣《中國時報》引述匯銀人士表示,有別於過去熱錢多來自美歐,近期卻是從香港方面流入,來源已“怪怪的”。更反常的是,外資為過聖誕節,多在聖誕節前縮手,但這波熱錢絲毫不打算過節,近期更逆勢加碼,顯然是鐵了心,要大幹一票。

“中行現在是內外交迫,”交易室主管表示,外的部份,1997年下半年索羅斯赴亞洲炒匯時,背後沒有美國政府“撐腰”,台灣中行或許還有優勢;但這回有美國量化寬鬆政策撐腰,無疑是挾美國政府之力,對亞洲發動匯率戰。

交易室主管表示,台灣中行為怕影響出口表現,刻意壓低新台幣匯價。影響所及,不只進口物價上漲,中油購油也受波及,本週油價續漲。

他認為,若情況惡化,將點燃通膨引線,中行也將面臨“顧物價,還是顧經濟”兩難。

索羅斯對台灣中行研究透徹

匯銀主管發現,索羅斯對台灣中行干預匯市手法,研究得相當透徹,除盤間結合出口商,密集“疲勞轟炸”中行,炒高匯價外;收盤前還會“殺出個程咬金”,冷不防來個突襲,讓中行來不及應變,收盤價全變了調。

至於索羅斯勝算如何?匯銀人士認為,中行對外資背景充份掌握,索羅斯目標明確,中行應不會視而不見。

但他也警告,有了1997年失敗經驗,索羅斯這次是有備而來,“錢洗了五、六手都有可能”,台灣中行仍得小心接招。


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Source URL: http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/41963

全球復甦存疑 亞股敗退

雖然聯儲局維持購債計劃,不過美國與日本中行報告紛紛對全球經濟復甦強度表示懷疑,導致週三亞股走勢疲軟,亞洲主要貨幣兌美元也紛紛下滑。

馬股走勢也有氣無力,雖然早盤一度攀高3.76點至1514.24點,惟隨著區域股市紛紛下挫,隨後也翻落平盤,一度下滑5.83點至1504.75點。最終掛1509.10點,下滑1.48點。

雖然美國隔夜股市因零售銷售數據優於預期而臨尾反彈,道瓊斯工商指數上揚47.98點,或0.42%,報11476.54點。惟對亞股走勢幫助不大。其中,摩根士丹利資本國際亞太指數從2年半新高下滑,盤中一度下滑0.6%至134.38點。

韓國與台灣股市走勢較堅挺,惟漲幅不超過0.1%。

港股失守23000點
香港股市波動較激烈,盤中一度暴跌550點,或2.2%至22876.88點,最終跌幅約1.95%。

中國、日本、新加坡、印尼、菲律賓與泰國股市也走勢疲軟,最終跌幅介於0.07%至0.85%。

另外,美元出現反彈,導致亞洲主要貨幣兌美元也回貶,其中馬幣兌美元一度下滑0.44%至3.1400水平。截至5時掛3.1355水平,下滑0.3%。




source: sinchew.com.my

東森關鍵時刻 20101215 B ~ 新台幣2字頭戰爭開打...

東森關鍵時刻 20101215 B (1/4) ~ 新台幣2字頭戰爭開打...

東森關鍵時刻 20101215 B (2/4) ~ 索羅斯量子基金的背後...

東森關鍵時刻 20101215 B (3/4) ~ 兩個黑暗帝國的結合...

東森關鍵時刻 20101215 B (4/4) ~ 三十歲到三十九歲的痛苦...

Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:15/12/2010

OCBC: Upgrade S-REITs from Neutral to OVERWEIGHT

Going into 2011, we upgrade our rating for the S-REITs from Neutral to OVERWEIGHT. The persistently low interest rate environment is expected to stimulate the property market and continue to drive prices higher. Together with "hot capital inflows" pouring into Asia, it is likely that spot rental rates and asset prices will continue to be inflated. At the same time, many REITs managers are capitalizing on the recovery cycle for further asset enhancements initiatives and acquisitions. Being an inflation hedge, we think investors' interest in S-REITs is likely to remain piqued in 2011. However, we noted that different sectors may experience different rates of recovery. In our opinion, the recovery is likely to be more pronounced for the office sector, followed by the industrial sector as the catch-up potential is greatest for these two sectors. The retail sector is likely to remain subdued next year in view of new retail supply (additional 612k sq ft of lease-able retail space in 2011), moderate rental escalation as well as lesser spending power from foreign visitors affected by the appreciating SGD. Within our coverage universe, our preferred picks are MLT [BUY, FV: S$1.00], ART [BUY, FV: S$1.38] for large-caps and FCOT [BUY, FV: S$0.18], Starhill Global [BUY, FV: S$0.66] for small-caps. Please refer to our report titled "S-REITs: Different strokes for different sectors" dated 10 Dec 2010 for more details.

OCBC: Singapore market More upside ahead

More upside ahead

Several positives for the Singapore market. We remain positive on the Singapore market supported by several favourable indicators including good inflow of funds, current low interest rate environment which will continue to favour equities, undemanding valuations, quality earnings for the blue chips of at least 10% in 2011, and the possibility of more mergers and acquisitions ahead.

Corporate earnings growth of at least 10% in 2011. For the near to medium term, the market focus is still likely to concentrate on Europe's sovereign debt situation, but we believe that Singapore's healthy outlook will attract buying interest in 2011. The STI is one of the better performing indices in 2010, and we expect the momentum to continue into 2011, buoyed by healthy fundamentals and good economic growth, which is likely to hit the high end of the government's official forecast of 4-6%. In addition, the recent property cooling measures have already taken roots, and we believe that a modest and gradual increase in residential property prices is more sustainable and healthy for the local property market.

Stocks are cheap. 3Q corporate earnings were good, following the positive strength in 2Q. Together with the projected 10% rise in 2011 earnings, valuations for the market are not expensive. The STI is currently trading at 15.5x this year's earnings and 14.1x next year's earnings. We expect some of the "laggards" in 2010 to be re-rated in 2011, and this is likely to include some of the property and banking stocks.

Eurozone concerns linger on. However, risks remain, even though risk appetite has recovered significantly from the lows in 2008. Still, the geopolitical tensions between North and South Korea, China's tightening measures and the debt crisis in the Eurozone area will continue to rein in optimism. In addition, there is persistent worry of another recession in the US. In this environment, interest rate is likely to remain low, and this could be another positive factor that will favour equities over other asset classes.

Stock picks for 2011. We continue to have an OVERWEIGHT on the Oil & Gas and Commodities sectors. This year, we have also placed a maiden OVERWEIGHT on the Healthcare sector, but have downgraded our long-standing OVERWEIGHT on the Telecommunications sector to a NEUTRAL. Our 2010 stock picks have done well, ending the year with an average gain of 21.1% compared to the STI's average gain of 13.8% for the same period. As such, we are maintaining most of our stock picks in 2010 into 2011. Our picks for 2011 are Ascott Residence Trust (ART), Biosensors International Group, CapitaLand Ltd, DBS Group Holdings Ltd, Ezra Holdings Ltd, Genting Singapore, Hyflux Ltd, Pacific Andes Resources Development, Keppel Corporation Ltd (KepCorp), Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT), Noble Group Ltd, Olam International Ltd, Sembcorp Marine Ltd (SembMarine), StarHub Ltd, United Overseas Bank Ltd (UOB), United Overseas Land Ltd (UOL) and Venture Corp Ltd.

OCBC: Hyflux Good Prospects for Further Growth

Hyflux Ltd
Maintain BUY
Previous Rating: BUY
Closing price (10 Dec): S$3.27
Fair Value : S$3.66

Good Prospects for Further Growth

Good prospects for water treatment plays. The shortage of water around the globe is getting worse, according to Britain's chief scientist John Beddington, as climate change disrupts rainfall patterns and result in more severe droughts; the issue is further compounded by a growing world population and rapid urbanization. Separately, a recent report by Euromonitor International adds that the lack of water will put pressure on food prices, restrict developing countries' efforts to reduce poverty and also hamper economic growth. However, it notes that this will create opportunities in the water and wastewater industry.

Hyflux is in a sweet spot. Hyflux Ltd, as Singapore's largest listed membrane-based water treatment company, is in a sweet spot to capture these opportunities in both the water and wastewater industry. Already sitting on an estimated order book of S$1715m, Hyflux intends to focus its efforts in China and MENA, both regions identified by global agencies as those most likely to suffer chronic water shortages. According to the World Bank, China may have a supply shortfall of 201b m3 by 2030; the PRC government has previously acknowledged that the water problem is severe1 . Separately, a recent report2 by the Organisation of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) warns that population growth will worsen the water shortage in the Arab world by 2025 unless there is further investment in desalination and water treatment capacity. Meanwhile, we understand that Hyflux is also actively looking towards the Indian subcontinent - another region expected to see severe water shortages over the next decade.

Bonus issue an added sweetener. Seperately, Hyflux has gotten in-principal approval from the SGX-ST for its 1-for-2 bonus issue, which management had earlier proposed during its 3Q10 results to both reward shareholders and increase the liquidity of its shares. As the company has fixed the book closure date as 22 Dec 2010, the stock will trade ex-bonus on 17 Dec. As a recap, Hyflux had previously done a 1-for-4 bonus issue in Jun 2002, another 1-for-4 in Dec 2003 and a 1-for-2 in Jul 2005.


Maintain BUY with S$3.66 fair value. In the longer term, the next catalyst will come from the signing of the two mega desalination projects in Libya (worth an estimated S$1.3-1.5b), which management notes is still in the technical discussion stage, essentially making it a mid-2011 story. In between, we also expect Hyflux to announce smaller contract wins, mostly from China. Maintain BUY with an unchanged fair value of S$3.66 (25x FY11F EPS), or S$2.44 (adjusted for bonus issue).

OCBC: CapitaLand Valuation seems attractive

CapitaLand Limited
Maintain BUY
Previous Rating: BUY
Closing price (10 Dec): S$3.67
Fair Value : S$4.54

Valuation seems attractive
New launch in Singapore. CapitaLand (CapLand) launched the 1715-unit d'Leedon (formerly Farrer Court) at Farrer Road late last month. The 99-year leasehold project is being developed by a CapLand-led consortium. As of 06 Dec, some 82% of the 250 units released for the initial launch have been sold at an average S$1680 per square foot (Channel News Asia). Of these ~205 units, 52 units were purchased by former Farrer Court owners. Meanwhile, CapLand said at 3Q10 results that 55-unit The Nassim should be launch-ready by 4Q.

Sells Adelphi units. CapLand announced earlier this month that it will sell 163 units at The Adelphi, consisting of 86 office units and 77 retail units, for a total S$218.1m. It expects to earn an after-tax profit of about S$15.7m on the transaction, which is expected to be completed by 28 Jan 2011. CapLand said the sale was in line with its "strategy to unlock the value of non-core assets and recycle assets". Other recent capital recycling initiatives include the planned divestment of 28 serviced residence properties to its 47.74%-owned hospitality REIT. CapLand noted at 3Q10 results that it plans "to maintain significant financial flexibility to protect the downside, yet take advantage of any relevant opportunities that may arise." It had a net gearing of 0.21x debt-to-equity as of 30 Sep.

More policy measures likely. We note that the property market has continued to perform well even after the Aug 30 property measures. With sustained conditions of high liquidity and cheap debt, we believe it is very likely that policymakers will implement further measures in 1H2011. We believe that the issues of changed buyer risk appetite (hinged on cheap debt) and housing affordability, and their impact on massmarket households, are likely to be the central concern for policymakers. Further policy measures could potentially impact prices and volumes of property transactions (particularly for the mass-market segment). We also note that while the highend segment still has room to move upwards, this segment is also more vulnerable to external shocks.

Valuation seems attractive. We prefer developers with strong balance sheets and those with balanced exposure to the property sector, which should buttress earnings and

performance in a year of fairly high uncertainty for residential property. While UOL Group is our top pick for the sector, we think CapLand's valuations are attractive at the current price level. We maintain our BUY call on the stock with an unchanged S$4.54 fair value estimate, at parity to RNAV.

OCBC 2010 stock picks have done well

HLG: Maintain Hold for MAS

Firefly to operate another 4 hubs
_ Firefly is planning to set up another 4 new hubs (Kota Kinabalu, Kuching, Senai and Penang) within the next 2 years to support its expansion plan. (Star Biz)

_ Comment: These hubs will improve Firefly’s route connectivity and improve demand for Firefly. However, this expansion may come at the expense of its parent MAS. Maintain Hold for MAS with unchanged target price of RM2.27.

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

野村证券:新元两年内料升值10%

● 李敏雯 报道
  与其他新兴市场比较,亚洲货币平均被低估10%,野村新加坡(Nomura Singapore)认为明年亚洲将继续吸引更多外资流入,从而增加了亚洲货币的吸引力,新元估计能在未来两年升值近10%。

  野村证券昨天发表最新的环球外汇研究报告。野村证券环球外汇研究组亚太区定息债券部执行总监陈立伟指出,亚洲货币中被低估最多的三种货币依次是新台币、人民币和新元,它们分别被低估了24.2%、16.7%和14.7%。

  相比之下,拉丁美洲的货币平均被高估了0.6%,其中巴西货币甚至被高估11.3%;东欧、中东和非洲各国的货币也平均只被低估7.6%。

  根据他的预测,新元兑美元将继续挺进,到明年年底可达1.22新元兑1美元,后年年底再上扬到1.17新元兑1美元。其他亚洲货币也都将在政府出台更多收紧政策、调高利率的背景下继续攀高。

  陈立伟认为,金融管理局没有必要在明年4月发表半年一度的货币政策声明中再次出手让新元进一步升值,因为今年两次采取的货币政策已属于相当强硬,而在今年10月,金管局再一次收紧新元的理由是舒缓国内的成本压力。

  不过在陈立伟看来,货币收紧至今,劳工市场仍然吃紧,成本压力并没有缓解,而在资源使用方面也没有放缓。

  然而他认为金管局可能会缩小新元名义有效汇率(S$NEER)可波动范围的宽度。

  这是因为金管局之前那次增加可波动范围的宽度是在“九一一恐怖袭击”之后即2001年10月,并指出该行动是当时金融市场的不确定因素较高所致。

  而现在当局已经对欧美市场明年的展望有了较确定的认知,陈立伟认为金管局可能考虑将这个宽度缩小,不过这对外汇投资者来说,可能就是投资新元的风险所在。

野村证券亚太固定收入市场利率策略董事经理苏普莱(Desmond Supple)进一步解释说,目前决策人较担心的是新加坡的房地产市场,但从利率角度看,进一步让新元升值实际上等于在降低利率,这对为楼市降温更加不利。

  他说,尽管金管局曾经在2005年下半年到2007年尝试让利率升高,但保持较低的汇率,可是结果并不尽如人意,当局应该会更谨慎。

  外资流入将促使亚洲各国纷纷推出资本控制政策,造成亚洲国家的资本控制风险正在上升。 
 
  此外,野村证券也预计,人民币兑美元将在明年升值5%至6%,从12月初的6.66人民币兑1美元,上升到6.22人民币兑1美元。

  在资本控制方面,陈立伟认为印尼、台湾和泰国出台更多资本控制政策的可能性最高,而新加坡、香港、印度、马来西亚和中国,在未来三至六个月采取进一步资本控制措施的可能性最低。

  不过下方风险包括亚洲具周期性的经济复苏万一出现放缓,各经济体也会担心货币太强劲会影响出口竞争力。

  在各亚洲货币中,陈立伟推荐“卖出”三个月美元兑人民币汇率,“买入”三个月韩元兑美元汇率、三个月新元/令吉兑新台币。

  野村证券环球外汇研究组主管弗林特(Simon Flint)相信,人民币明年的升值幅度将足以消除中美两国的紧张局势,而资本控制的情况也不会显著到对全球复苏展望产生体系性的冲击。

source: zaobao.com

DXN 14.12.2010 Share buy back

“牛”聲不斷‧大牛市似假還真?

Created 12/13/2010 - 10:19
馬股今年邁向另一高峰,令“大牛市來了”聲音此起彼落,但臨尾卻受到市場負面“聲音”干擾,走勢突然來個大扭轉,並陷入暴跌窘境,牛市是否真的會來,就猶如狼來了故事般令人困擾。

不過,馬股雖遲遲“只見牛角,只聞牛聲,不見牛身”,卻絲毫不影響市場看漲預期,外資和本地證券行齊唱雙簧,唱好2011年馬股坐擁牛市5C題材,馬股2011年第二版牛市可期。

馬股溫故知新
投資活動的循跡性很強,溫故知新往往是成功的第一步。因此,許多專家都透過大量引用過去的類似經驗,來預測未來股市走向,畢竟若能深刻瞭解過去的市場、政策走向,對當前的投資將會有更實用性的指導作用。
因此,要瞭解馬股的未來走向,難免需回顧一下馬股今年的作為。

MIDF研究表示,富時綜合指數繼2009年增長45%後,截至今年11月21日止已走高18.3%,延續經濟復甦動力,其中富時綜指更在11月10日創下1,531.99點的歷史新高。

馬股在亞洲表現第四佳
富時綜指為亞洲表現第四佳的市場,僅落後印尼、菲律賓和泰國股市,儼然成為投資者對中國市場泡沫化的亞洲“寵兒”(Darling)之一。

其中,產業領域是2010年馬股表現最佳的領域,產業指數走高27.5%,但電訊與科技領域先盛後衰,年初表現亮眼,但卻在次季和第三季陸續回吐漲幅,加上第四季走勢持續落後大市,促使全年漲幅僅有4.9%,是全年表現最差的領域。

43%企業盈利表現符預期
該證券行指出,企業盈利在2010年表現向好,43%企業盈利表現符合預期,更有23%表現優於預期,當中以汽車、消費者和產業領域表現最好。

雖然外圍充滿不確定性,但經濟持續健康成長,將對企業盈利帶來良好支撐,料2011年企業盈利前景依舊良好,銀行、建築、石油與天然氣和種植等產同領域將有望取得卓越表現。

有鑑於此,MIDF研究些微上調2010和2011年盈利預測,前者從14.1%調升至14.7%,後者則從15.2%調高至15.9%。



5C光環再現
馬股第二版牛市到來?
曾經何時,女人愛以現金、公寓、汽車、信用卡和事業5C為理想伴侶標準,但任誰也想不到,原來股市牛氣也可以透過5C衡量。

野村證券(Nomura)表示,馬股從2008年全球金融危機反彈後,2009年即谷底反彈77%,而今年為止更錦上添花17%,潛存許多1990年初超級大牛市的影子。

“大馬在1990年初被視為區域快速成長的新興市場之一,強勁外國直接投資和出口成長帶動經常賬盈餘趨強,並為市場帶來進一步流動性。同時,馬幣估值遭低估普遍印象,以及經濟成長前景獲冗長基本基礎開銷週期支撐,更令股市成為尋求額外回酬的理想地點。”

該證券行認為,雖然當前馬股缺乏的部份就是,較小規模的外國直接投資流入,但市場仍有當年牛市的5C(Charateristic)重要特性浮現。

第一個C:經濟復甦
大馬國內生產總值(GDP)成長已穩步走向正軌,更是大牛市最重要的特性之一,因良好的經濟環境將讓投資者對企業盈利前景持正面觀點,並讓他們有信心趁市場調整進場。

馬股牛市持續跡象正不斷浮現,預見投資者趁低吸納的信心和胃納正逐漸改善。

第二個C:流動性
正所謂“沒錢免談”(No Money No Talk),流動性非常重要,就算一個人如何進行切割運算(Sliceand Dice),牛市漲勢在缺乏強勁和穩定的流動性下根本無法長存。在低流動性和持有的馬股,無需大量流動性即可讓市場發光發亮。

現有充裕的流動性條件已趨向成熟,為引領市場進一步走高做好準備,市場交易量持續上漲就是良好證明。

第三個C:領域週期更替(Rotation Play)
另一牛市重要因素就是強勁投資者興趣,和從一個領域轉至另一個領域的參與的有力證據。不同的領域週期投資更替將有利於維持成交量和動力,而大馬投資者已開始轉向注意力,從銀行和建築轉至產業市場。
第四個C:蓬勃併購活

動與政府相關公司釋股企業對經濟和股市前景看好,將反映在近期併購活動暴增身上,大股東資源出售展開併購活動進一步強化市場觀點,相信市場前景改善可能誘發更多併購活動在未來數月出現。

2011年也是政府相關公司忙碌的1年,因市場普遍預期將有更多釋股活動出現,其中,國庫控股迄今為止的釋股活動獲得投資者歡迎,主要是更多股權流入股市將有利於改善馬股流動性。

此外,政府相關公司財務表現持續改善,也為國庫控股減持股權創造條件。

第五個C:阿媽綜合症(The Amah Syndrome)
香港證券及期貨事務監察委員會前主席沈聯濤在《從亞洲到全球的金融危機》書中指出,導致1993年超級大牛市出現“非理性亢奮”(irrational exuberance)的2大因素,包括“家庭主婦”(Amah)綜合症,以及商人利用企業資產負債表額外資金在股市炒作一番,以爭取更高的回酬。

在大馬,投資者相信當家庭主婦或散戶投資者開始在股市活躍起來,即意味著股市已接近見頂。因此,從心理學來看,投資者現可在股市仍未見頂前輕鬆繪製版圖,因上述綜合症仍未在當前牛市傳播開來。

3大利基驅使
馬股2011“兔”躍而出
本地:選舉、原產品漲勢
和強勢馬幣
MIDF研究表示,富時綜指2011年前景良好,加上富時集團(FTSE Group)提昇馬股地位,自目前“次級新興”市場上調至“先進新興”地位,料可持續吸引外資前來。

雖然外資在馬股持股水平有所回升,從年初的20.4%走高至9月杪的21.7%,但從長期角度看,相關水平依舊比2007年杪的26.2%為低,但相信只要政府持續朝正確方向前進,外資勢必持續流入馬股。

此外,在投資者眼中,亞洲新興市場已較先進市場更具吸引力,在相關趨勢下,儘管大馬並未處在全球投資者的雷達中,也料可從中享有部份溢出效應(Spillover Effect),其中3大吸引外資因素為:1.州和全國大選。股市通常在選舉年表現良好,而全球投資者也對之認可。

2.原產品漲勢。若原油價格緩步走高至每桶100至110美元,原產品漲勢將捲土重來,而大馬可提供投資者無法忽略的良好種植股選擇,石油與天然氣類股也料可為投資者留下印象。

3.強勢馬幣。馬幣是今年表現最佳的區域貨幣之一,雖然年杪因投資者兌現賺益些微回落,但預計買氣將在明年初重新凝聚,明年表現料持續向好。

有鑑於此,MIDF研究相信,在流動性驅使下,馬股將可輕易突破2011年的1,650點年終目標,相等於2011財政年18倍核心本益比。

“若以11月21日止1506.1點閉市位為基準,1,650點相等於9.6%漲勢,而由下而上(Bottom Up)的1,680點目標更提供11.5%上漲空間,與富時綜指10年平均回酬10.9%相符。”
外資:併購、消費主題

與原產品價走高
野村證券表示,近期3大領域的大型併購案,不僅激勵了市場信心,也提高了投資銀行荷包,相信在消費榮景、高原產品價和流動性支撐下,馬股牛市有望延續至2011年,2011年富時綜指有望上抵1,703點。

1.併購
馬股已長期未充斥併購消息和活動,而市場近期興奮情緒從產業領域蔓延至相對平靜的消費者領域,在過去4週,市場已浮現6家產業公司和1家消費者機構的4大重要併購計劃。

大馬企業在當前牛市透過併購和內部成長日趨擴大,其中印尼業務貢獻已成為銀行領域關鍵成長推手,特別是聯昌集團(CIMB, 1023, 主板金融組)和馬來亞銀行(MAYBANK, 1155, 主板金融組);電訊企業也從早前進軍印尼市場中摘取成熟的果實。

UEM置地(UEMLAND, 5148, 主板產業組)和陽光(SUNRISE, 6165, 主板產業組)、怡保置地(IJMLAND, 5215, 主板產業組)與馬資源(MRCB, 1651, 主板建筑組),以及雙威控股(SUNWAY, 4308, 主板建筑組)和雙威城(SUNCITY, 6289, 主板產業組)近期併購案,將確保投資者對2011財政年產業領域的興趣,以及崛起成為更大和更具流動性的業者,將把大馬產業市場置在更多投資者的雷達內。
特定銀行成大贏家

此外,特定銀行將是併購活動熱絡的大贏家,其中聯昌集團作為首要投資銀行集團,將是政府相關公司交易的潛在贏家。但銀行業本身也可能是潛在併購領域之一,當中規模最小的安聯金融(AFG, 2488, 主板金融組)是外資進軍大馬的理想對象,而大馬投資(AMMB, 1015, 主板金融組)和興業資本(RHBCAP, 1066, 主板金融組)等中資銀行也是合適的對象。

野村證券指出,若併購活動成真,大馬銀行可從興業資本龐大低成本儲蓄及來往戶頭(CASA)基礎,興業銀行高多養利率貸款可減少與大馬銀行的機構失衡,並允許雇員公積金局減少興業資本股權。

2.消費榮景
大馬憑藉較高的出生率,年輕人口相對龐大,其中50%人口年齡介於25歲以下,73%在40歲以下,料是消費成長的關鍵推力。

此外,在過去20年強勁經濟成長和發展,大馬人均收入不僅呈健康增長,收入也比1990年更為平均,至少55%家庭現月收入至少達2千500令吉,創造出更多中產消費集團。

雖然人口快速成長,大馬人均收入卻相對較高,2008年人均收入達6千897美元,比印尼和泰國的3千939美元和2千329美元為高。

3.原產品價走高
高原棕油價效益已擴散至小型種植業者,鄉鎮消費開銷也開始追上傳統較高的城市地區,近期的汽車銷售數據就是最佳證明。

各領域評比
過去1年來,銀行、建築、產業到種植領域接連發功,帶領馬股翻越一個又一個高峰,但展望明年,又有哪些領域將脫穎而出?

野村證券表示,在3大利多因素扶持下,產業、原棕油和銀行業將是明年馬股的大贏家,但MIDF研究則認為是種植、油氣、銀行,建築和通訊將是首選,究竟誰是誰非,還是要靠投資者雪亮的眼睛了。
下列是經過詳細比較後,外資和本地證券行對各領域的評估:



總結:
別被牛氣遮蔽理智

雖然馬股“牛”聲不斷,但還是有分析員對牛市前景抱持懷疑態度,認為當前資產價格上漲,與過多流通性追求有限投資標的,造就“大牛市”榮景有關。

但有“大牛市”就會有“大熊市”,這種靠過剩流動性換取的金融資產價格上漲的趨勢,總有一天會結束,投資者還是應抱持審慎投資態度,千萬別被牛氣遮蔽了理智,而落得後悔莫及窘境。


source: sinchew.com.my

CIMB: Potential H&S pattern for STI



Potential H&S pattern for STI. The STI could not overcome its resistance trend line over the past week and is trading just below its 50-day SMA (3,189) support this week. The daily chart shows a potential head & shoulder pattern with the neckline at 3,119- 3,125pts. A breakdown of the neckline would be very negative. The weekly chart show recent confirmation of the MACD “dead cross”, which could be medium-term negative if the STI corrects further over the next few weeks.

CIMB: Choppy rebound for KLCI



The KLCI’s rebound over the past week has been very choppy, a likely sign that the index could still be in a triangle consolidation or has just started a diagonal triangle/wedge uptrend formation. The KLCI recently confirmed its weekly MACD “dead cross” signal, which is generally an indicator of a negative medium-term trend. However as long as the key support levels of 1,496 (50-day SMA) and 1,490 (support trend line) hold, the medium-term trend remains upwards. A break below these support levels would be a very negative sign.

Monday, December 13, 2010

HwangDBS: Malaysian Airlines Risky turnaround

Malaysian Airlines
HOLD RM2.01
Price Target : 12 m RM 1.85 (Prev RM 1.90)

Risky turnaround
• Likely to turnaround next year but expansion into low-cost airline business could pressure yield
• Expect net gearing to peak at 2.3x in FY12F as it takes delivery of more aircraft (own)
• Maintain Hold with revised TP of RM1.85 pegged to 15x CY11F EPS

Anticipated turnaround next year not without risks.
We cut FY11-12F earnings by 3%-6% after imputing lower passenger yields and higher interest expense, which more than offset impact of weaker USD and lower level of
fuel requirement hedged. We expect MAS to turnaround next year driven by y-o-y yield improvement as market conditions improve, while the USD is expected to continue to weaken against the MYR. But MAS’ expansion in the low-cost segment could start a price war between lowcost carriers and pressure yields.

Expect net gearing to peak in FY12F. We understand MAS is looking to own the first five B738-800s and all six A380-800s that it had ordered. These are scheduled to be delivered between 4QFY10F and FY12F, and likely to be funded by borrowings. Hence, we project net gearing to rise to 1.5x in FY11F and peak in FY12F at 2.3x. We understand that it had secured funding for all aircraft to be delivered in FY11.

Maintain Hold with a revised TP of RM1.85 pegged to 15x CY11F EPS. Though we expect MAS to turnaround next year, we note that its expansion into the domestic and regional low-cost segment might create downside risk to yields. Furthermore, MAS’ net gearing level is expected to rise over the next two years as some of the new aircraft would be owned by the Group. This makes it crucial for MAS to deliver consistent earnings to meet its future capital and debt commitments.

Highlights
Domestic expansion is timely to capture growing air travel demand. MAS is looking to expand its domestic services, which we believe is likely to be executed through Firefly, its low-cost carrier (LCC) unit. MAS said earlier that Firefly would be venturing into the low-cost segment in a big way next year by offering low fares and expanding its fleet in phases. The airline will start operations with six B737-800s next year and double fleet size in FY12. We are positive on this development, because the expansion would allow Firefly to capture the anticipated growing air travel demand. MAS’ overall passenger yield is estimated at 22.6sen in FY11F and 23.4sen in FY12F (from 19.9sen in FY10F), likely driven by improvements in both international and domestic yields.

But domestic expansion may slow yield recovery. Although the expansion would allow Firefly to capture growing air travel demand, the airline still risks its yield dropping as

AirAsia, the largest LCC in the region, might retaliate by lowering fares to defend market share. This could pressure Firefly’s yields further. We are also concerned about the potential cannibalization of MAS’ existing domestic offerings although Firefly is supposed to cater only to the low-cost segment.

Cut FY11-12F earnings by 3%-6% after imputing 4%-8% lower passenger yields and higher interest expense, which more than offset the impact of weaker USD (against MYR) and lower level of fuel requirement hedged. We raised interest expense by 24% for FY11F and 65% for FY12F after increasing capex assumptions to RM3.1bn and RM3.9bn, respectively (from RM924m each year previously). We understand that currently, the Group is looking to own the first five B738-800s and all six A380-800s that it had ordered. These will likely be funded by borrowings. We also imputed MAS’ new fuel hedging position in FY11 following its recent restructuring of hedging instruments. Its current hedging level is 33% at US$93/barrel WTI crude oil price (from 40% at US$100/barrel). Meanwhile, our MYR/USD assumptions were also revised to MYR2.98 and MYR2.87 in FY11F and FY12F (from 3.28 previously) based on DBS’ latest forecasts. The new hedging position and weaker USD brought down our fuel cost assumptions.

FY10F core net loss is raised by 13% mainly to account for higher non-fuel costs based on 9M10 result. Operationally, we expect 4QFY10 to register a loss (RM54m core net loss), but it would be narrower q-o-q as it is a seasonally stronger quarter. However, we understand that MAS may recognize an exceptional gain in the quarter from the restructuring of its fuel hedges, which we did not factor into our forecasts. Expect net gearing to peak in FY12F as more new aircraft come in. MAS is scheduled to receive two B738s in 4Q10, followed by four B738s and seven A330s next year. FY12F will see five B738s, three A330s and six A380s delivered. As MAS will own the first five B738s and all six A380, we expect net gearing to rise to 1.5x in FY11F and 2.3x in FY12F, on the back of increased borrowings. Thus far, we understand that funding for all incoming aircraft in FY11 had already been lined up.

Valuation
Maintain Hold with a revised TP of RM1.85 pegged to 15x CY11F EPS. Though we expect MAS to turnaround next year, we note that its expansion into the domestic and
regional low-cost segment might create downside risk to yields. Furthermore, MAS’ net gearing level is expected to rise over the next two years as some of the new aircraft would be owned by the Group. This makes it crucial for MAS to deliver consistent earnings to meet its future capital and debt commitments
Corporate: KrisAssets to buy The Gardens from IGB
Written by Siow Chen Ming
Monday, 13 December 2010 00:00

KrisAssets Holdings Bhd’s plan to issue RM300 million in redeemable convertible bonds may be a precursor to its acquiring The Gardens, Mid Valley, from parent IGB Corp Bhd.

Such an exercise could create a win-win situation for both companies. While IGB gets to unlock the value of its assets, working its balance sheet harder and changing from a single-asset entity may give the quiet KrisAssets a much-needed boost.

Last week, KrisAssets obtained the approval of Securities Commission Malaysia to issue up to RM300 million seven-year redeemable convertible secured bonds, which will raise funds for the company to “pursue potential acquisition/investment opportunities and to refinance existing borrowings”.

While the company did not elaborate on the acquisition/investment plans, property market observers are already predicting that it will purchase The Gardens from IGB via a cash plus share deal.

IGB controls 73.46% of KrisAssets, which owns only Mid Valley Megamall. It makes sense for KrisAssets to add The Gardens, which is adjacent to Megamall, to its current single-asset portfolio. This was always the plan but it had yet to be implemented because the management of both KrisAssets and IGB wanted The Gardens to first develop a strong base of recurring rental income.

The Gardens has been operating for more than three years now, thus making it timely for KrisAssets to acquire it from IGB. The Gardens is carried on IGB’s balance sheet at a net book value of RM594 million, according to the company’s annual report for 2009.

Market observers say both KrisAssets and IGB need corporate exercises to stimulate interest in their shares. The shares of the former, especially, are illiquid, which is a roadblock for institutional funds. The company also lacks a clear dividend growth pattern in order to retain shareholders despite its free cash flow strengthening over the years.

Investors tend to compare KrisAssets, which is a purely property investment company, with real estate investment trusts (REITs) despite the fact that the business models are different. KrisAssets’ priority over the past few years has been to degear or trim borrowings rather than pay its shareholders generous dividends. The priority of REITs, however, has always been to ensure dividend growth by acquiring yield-enhancing property assets that would give a decent spread over cost of funds.

KrisAssets closed last Wednesday at RM3.58, which translates to a market capitalisation of RM1.21 billion. Its market price still trails its net tangible assets of RM3.64 per share or shareholders’ funds of RM1.23 billion. While some REITs do trade below their NTA, they do not trade at more than 8% gross dividend yield.

If KrisAssets were a REIT, it would be grossly undervalued vis-à-vis its income distribution potential. If annualised, KrisAssets could report a pre-tax profit of RM150.6 million in FY2010 ending Dec 31 (excluding fair value gain). Assuming that it distributes at least 90% of its pre-tax earnings as dividends, which is what REITs normally do, KrisAssets could return RM135.5 million to shareholders, which translates to an 11.2% gross yield on its market cap of RM1.21 billion.
If traded at par with the valuation of REITs of 8% yield, KrisAssets’ current share price would have an upside of 40%. Nonetheless, it is highly improbable that KrisAssets will distribute 90% of its pre-tax earnings as dividends.

The company has, over the past five years, trimmed its net borrowings by RM236.6 million, from RM487 million as at FY2005 ended Dec 31 to RM250.4 million as at Sept 30, 2010, and distributed a smaller amount of RM154.1 million in dividends (FY2006 to FY2010), including an interim dividend of RM25.3 million in FY2010.

In essence, KrisAssets has been utilising the bulk of its earnings and cash flow to pare its borrowings rather than pay dividends. But as the company’s revenue and cash flow grow and net borrowings decline, there will be more free cash flow to be distributed to shareholders.

If annualised, KrisAssets’ FY2010 revenue would come up to RM236.8 million and its operating profit before working capital changes to RM168.8 million. This is a significant increase from FY2005 where revenue was RM171.2 million and operating profit before working capital changes was RM109.2 million.

It is learnt that management is not keen on converting the company into a REIT at this stage as it is not ready to embrace the structure which would limit flexibility in terms of capital management. As a REIT, the bulk of income earned from real estate assets has to be distributed to shareholders. In addition, the guidelines in terms of fundraising and acquisitions are more rigid.

In the final analysis, now that KrisAssets has reduced its gearing and freed up more operating cash flow, it has to reinvest in new asset acquisitions — with the help of some new gearing — to expand its earnings base, or it has to step up its dividend distribution to shareholders.

Ideally, the company should do both to enhance the appeal of its shares, striking a balance between growth and dividend returns to shareholders.

This article appeared in Corporate page of The Edge Malaysia, Issue 836, Dec 13-19, 2010

Source/转贴/Extract/: The Edge Malaysia, Issue 836, Dec 13-19, 2010
Publish date:13/12/2010

DBSV: • Accumulate stocks over next 2 weeks in the market lull

• Accumulate stocks over next 2 weeks in the market lull – Near-term support lifted to 3155 and maintain technical view for STI to head for 3438 by 1Q11. Prefer O&G, CPO, hospitality and infrastructure spending.

The local bourse is currently in the mist of the holiday lull period. We maintain our view for trading activity to pick up again around the Christmas period and for the STI to resume its major rising trend towards 3438 by 1Q11. We lift near-term support modestly to 3155 from 3125.

Downside is limited. Make use of the current holiday lull to accumulate stocks in anticipation of the upcoming rally that can last till 1-2 weeks before the Lunar New Year, which falls on early February next year.

We like rig builder Keppel Corp, which we believe could win contracts to build 4-11 rigs from Petrobras while SembCorp Marine could end up with zero or 7 drillship contracts. We also like Cosco Corp because the company is poised to gain from the recovery in offshore orders next year.

Our plantation analyst expects CPO prices to resume its uptrend from the end of this year through 1Q11, supported by both the weak USD, strong demand from China and supply shortage of substitute soybean. We are bullish on the plantations sector, as higher soybean prices would ultimately boost palm and soybean oil prices. Stock picks are Indofood Agri and First Resources.

We expect the trend for strong visitor arrivals to continue into 2011 driven by new attractions in Universal Studios@Sentosa, the gear-up to host larger conferences and meetings, the opening of Gardens by the Bay and the International Cruise Terminal. Hospitality related stocks should continue to deliver strong earnings and our picks are Genting Singapore, SIA, UOL and CDL HT.

Finally, we see infrastructure spending staying strong in 2011 driven by public sector projects from HDB, LTA and JTC. Our stock picks in this area are Tiong Seng, Pan United Corp, Yongnam and OKP Holdings.

CIMB:China Taisan – Technical BUY

CIMB: Small (cap) bets for 1H11

Sunday, December 12, 2010

唱旺新台灣20101212》匯率逼近30 台股上看9000點

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Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:12/12/2010

唱旺新台灣20101212》七上八下後 胡立陽:直奔9600點



Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:12/12/2010

七上八下後 胡立陽:直奔9600點

唱旺新台灣20101212》七上八下後 胡立陽:直奔9600點



Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:12/12/10
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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