Saturday, November 27, 2010

HLG: MAS Positive Outlooks

Inline; Positive Outlooks
3Q10 passenger demand, RPK increased by 9.0% qoq and 7.0% yoy.
3Q10 passenger yield was 21.0 sen (flat qoq, +10.3% yoy) while passenger surcharges was 3.8 sen (-12.2%qoq, -3.7% yoy).

Management guiding for strong demand for 4Q10 as 4th quarter is seasonally strongest quarter of the year.

One-off redelivery charge of RM96m in 3Q10 vs RM105m in 2Q10.

Management is strategizing to maximize revenue by targeting premium passengers as well as increasing overall load factors.

Maintain Hold with unchanged Target Price of RM2.27 based on 9x FY12E P/E (10% discount to Regional airlines FY12 P/E of 10x), to better reflect MAS business recovery by FY12 and account for execution risk of BTP.

Friday, November 26, 2010

CIMB: Genting Malaysia Dicey days ahead?

26 November 2010
Genting Malaysia Bhd
NEUTRAL Maintained
RM3.38 Target: RM3.90
Dicey days ahead?

• In line; remain NEUTRAL. Genting Malaysia’s (GM) annualised 9M10 core net profit came in 3% higher our forecast and 10% ahead of consensus. We deem the results to be broadly in line as the seasonally strong 4Q for Resorts World Genting (RWG) will be less pronounced from here on given the seasonally slower winter quarter for its newly acquired UK assets. The absence of dividends was expected, being consistent with last year. We trim FY10-12 earnings by 1-3% to reflect the recently completed UK acquisition. Our end-CY10 SOP-based target price is lowered from RM4.00 to RM3.90 after updating Genting Hong Kong’s share price. We continue to rate the stock a NEUTRAL as re-rating catalysts are limited in the near term. For exposure to the gaming sector, we prefer its parent, Genting Bhd.

• Seeing some threat? 3Q10 revenue fell 10% yoy, dragged down by the poorer VIP win rate and weaker volumes. If luck had been normal, the topline fall would have been better padded at 5% yoy. Luck-adjusted revenue dipped only 2% qoq, which is quite commendable given that 3Q10 was the first full quarter when Singapore’s two IRs were in play. RWG’s non-gaming business was decent during the quarter – hotel occupancies held steady at 90% (vs. 2Q10’s 94% and 3Q09’s 90%) while F&B revenue grew marginally. Despite the weaker 3Q, 9M10 topline managed a 1.6% yoy uptick.

• Slight margin squeeze. 3Q10 EBITDA margin eased 0.6% pts from 2Q10’s 38.4%, probably because of i) higher A&P spending and ii) less operating leverage as a result of the lower business volumes.

• UK + Singapore’s threat = normal 4Q? Although GM typically ends the year on a strong note given the holidays and festivities, we believe the seasonal lift will be less apparent this time around given the possibility of a weaker winter showing by its newly acquired UK assets. Also, while we believe that GM’s strong daytripper base and management’s yield focus will minimise cannibalisation, it is too early to rule out a shift in the year-end holiday crowds, especially with the novelty pull of new tourist attractions in Singapore.

MAS 3QFY10 earnings lifted by derivative gain (Affin)

REDUCE (maintain)
Price Target: RM1.85 (↓)
3QFY10 earnings lifted by derivative gain

Derivative gain boost earnings
MAS reported an unexpected core net profit of RM77.5m in 3Q10, a swing from from a core net loss of RM317.6m in 2Q10 and RM97.6m loss in 3Q09. Our definition of core net profit excludes a derivative gain amounting to RM155.7m. Annualised, 9M10 earnings is abover ours and consensus full year estimates (core net loss of RM274m and net profit of RM56m, respectively). For us, the deviation largely stems from the smallish MTM loss of RM4.8m compared to our MTM loss forecast of RM1395m and higher other operating income of RM526m vs our estimate of RM218m.

Load factor improve on yearly basis
On a yearly basis, MAS 9M10 revenue rose 16.3% on higher passenger revenue and surcharges (up 12% yoy). The number of passengers carried rose by 13.1% yoy to 9.67m. Passenger load factor improved by an impressive 9.5%-pts to 75.8%, and yield improved by 1.5% to 20.2 sen/RPK. Cargo revenue also grew by a commendable 53.5% as load factor improved to 75.1% (from 68.6% yoy), and yield rose to 82 sen (+21.6 yoy) as demand improves. Meanwhile MAS’s CASK expanded by 8.6% yoy on higher maintenance costs (+15.3% yoy), sales commission and incentives expenses (+11.6% yoy) and higher fuel costs (+30.8% yoy). 9MFY10 jet fuel price averaged at US$87/barrel vs US$66/barrel in 9M09.

Reiterate REDUCE with lower TP of RM1.85
We have revised upwards our FY10 earnings estimate to RM136m net profit (from RM272m net loss) on a lower RM55.8m derivative loss forecast from a loss of RM150m and higher other income of RM540m (from previous forecast of RM240m). However, for FY11, we have lowered our core net earnings forecast by 12% after stripping off our MTM gain forecast of RM100m on derivatives hedging. We understand that currently its fuel for 2011 is hedged by about 33% of its requirement. With the stiff pricing competition regionally, we believe it remains challenging for MAS to further increase yields while ensuring load factors remain above 75%. Given the earnings downgrade, our target price is lowered to RM1.85 (previously RM2.10), based on an unchanged target PER of 18x CY11. At current level, MAS is still trading at a premium to its regional competitors which are trading at an average PER of 8x CY11. Maintain REDUCE. Key risk to our recommendation would be MAS’s ability to consistently deliver in terms of high load factor and improving yields.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Affin Investment
Publish date:26/11/10

HwangDBS: MAS Slow yield recovery

Malaysian Airlines
Price Target : 12 m RM 1.90

Slow yield recovery

3Q10 core net loss narrowed to RM156.6m (vs - RM385.1m in 2Q10), below expectations

• Larger-than-expected losses were mainly due to higher non-fuel costs and flat yield q-o-q

• Maintain Hold and RM1.90 TP based on 15x CY11F EPS

Load factor improved but yield still under pressure.
Although load factor improved 4.6ppts q-o-q to 78.6%, MAS’ passenger yield remained under pressure, inching up only 0.4% q-o-q. Cargo load factor also fell 4.2ppts q-o-q, with yield dipping 3%. While fuel cost/ASK fell 6% q-o-q (at 8.5 sen), estimated non-fuel cost/ASK (ex-EI) (declined by only 3%) continued to be dragged down by additional RM96m charge for aircraft redelivery maintenance. MAS also reported RM146.5m combined net cash settlement on derivatives and premium paid on derivatives during the quarter.

Expect better 4Q10. We expect yield and load factor to continue to recover with recovering air travel demand. But fuel hedging losses may continue to hit the bottom line.

Losses may narrow further in FY11F as MAS restructured its hedging position to 33% of fuel requirement (from 40%) at US$93/bbl (from US$100/bbl). We understand
that the restructuring may result in a one-off net gain in 4Q10.

Maintain Hold. We look to cut FY10F earnings by 18% in FY10F and c.60% in FY11F due to slower than expected yield recovery. Maintain RM1.90 TP based on 15x CY11F EPS for now. We also maintain our Hold call considering the expected earnings turnaround is only towards end- FY11. We believe FY10 remains challenging for MAS due to increasing pressures on yield.

MIDF: MAS Cargo business shines

25 November 2010
Malaysia Airlines - 3Q10 Results Review
Upgrade to BUY Increased
Target Price (TP): RM2.54 (from RM2.50)

Cargo business shines
Operating profit more than doubled. MAS' 30FY10 net profits jumped to RM233.9m, a partial reversal of the RM532.6m loss in the preceding quarter. However, the volatile profit at the net level does not distract our attention to the fact that MAS is improving its profit at the operating level tremendously, indicating its increasing level of efficiency and higher business volume. 30FY10 operating profit rose 267%yoy and 142.9%qoq.

Strong revenue growth in 3QFY10. For the cumulative 9 months, revenue of RM9,388m was within ours and consensus expectations accounting for 73% of both's full year estimates. However, revenue in 3010 grew 15%qoq and 17%yoy. Passenger traffic growth is back to the healthy level of 17%yoy for the 9MFY10, measured in RPK (Revenue Passenger KM). In 9MFY10, MAS had a RPK of 27,778.0 mil km and a load factor of 76% for 9MFY10. Cargo traffic growth meanwhile shines at 34%yoy in the third quarter.

Yield increased for the second quarter running. We like the fact that MAS has managed to increase its yields for the second sequential quarter at 2%yoy to 24 sen/RPK. Management indicated that the appreciation of ringgit impacted the contributions from long haul destinations such as US and Europe.

Upgrade to BUY. We are turning positive on MAS for the following reasons:
It is getting leaner operationally, with gains in operating efficiency. It is also getting financially more efficient, in respect of hedging practices, cash and liability management. In short, yields are improving.

MAS is more aggressive in its expansion strategy, with its purchase of B737-800 and making KK its eastern hub.

The ringgit, which is in secular incline, should benefit MAS due to its dollar denominated borrowings and cost.

Its 100% subsidiary, Firefly is making a foray into jet engine

and this will allow it to operate at longer distance.

We upgrade our recommendation to BUY with a target price of RM2.54. Our target price is based on PER of 10.5x, which is the mean PER of its peers

CIMB: MAS Q310 Result

CIMB: MAS Upgrading estimates on good 3Q

26 November 2010
Malaysian Airline System Bhd
RM2.06 Target: RM3.00

Upgrading estimates on good 3Q
• Above expectations; maintain OUTPERFORM. MAS’s 3Q core net loss of RM61m was 44% better than the RM108m loss we had estimated in our preview as costs came in slightly below expectations. The performance was also much better than the RM407m core net loss incurred a year ago and 2Q’s RM326m loss. Adjusting for lower non-fuel costs, we upgrade FY10 core EPS by 16% while raising FY11 by 272% for lower fuel price and stronger ringgit assumptions. Our FY12 EPS is largely unchanged. Our target price of RM3 is also untouched and continues to be based on CY12 P/E of 6x. No dividend was declared as expected. We maintain our OUTPERFORM call. Potential re-rating catalysts include the ongoing fleet renewal, unwinding of expensive fuel hedges, and sector-wide yield and demand recovery.

• Better sequential performance on higher passenger loads and lower costs. Despite the disappointing 2.2% qoq drop in yield, MAS succeeded in generating more than enough demand to push up the PLF 4.6% pts qoq to 78.6%. As a result, RASK rose 3.9% qoq, and together with the 2.6% qoq rise in ASK, passenger revenue improved 6.6% qoq. Furthermore, we estimate that the effective cash cost of fuel dropped 4.2% qoq to US$103.90/bbl due to the lower average spot price and lower realised hedging losses. Non-fuel costs also dropped 3.3% qoq as 2Q had seen several one-off charges. The only negative was the 10% qoq drop in cargo revenue as cargo yields fell 3.4% and shipping demand weakened 6.9% qoq because of seasonal factors.

• Bulk of extra provisions already booked. Over the past two quarters, MAS booked RM205m maintenance provisions for the planned return of 27 leased planes. Only four more planes need to be provided for by 2Q11. With the bulk of provisions already done, the 2011 numbers will look cleaner. • Upfront settlement of hedges reduces future burden. MAS took the opportunity of the recent spike in oil prices to terminate prematurely some of its 2011 hedges. Currently, 33% of next year’s fuel needs are hedged at US$93/bbl (crude equivalent), against the previous position of 40% at US$100/bbl. The cash cost of the settlement will be booked in the 4Q cashflow statement and offset against derivative liability on the balance sheet.

ECM: MAS Q310 A pleasant surprise

26 November 2010
Malaysia Airlines
(RM2.06 MAS MK)
Buy /Target Price: RM2.95

3QFY10 : A pleasant surprise
· >RM500m swing in net profit

Contrary to our expectations, MAS posted 3Q10 net profit of RM233.2m, compared to a net loss of RM299.6m in 3Q09. During the quarter, MAS incurred a one-off charge for aircraft redelivery maintenance of RM96m. The Group also recorded a RM155m mark-to-market gains on its fuel, forex and interest rate hedging contracts. Excluding these exceptional items, 3Q10 core net profit came in at RM77.5m, bringing 9M10 net profit to RM13.3m, which is above our and market’s expectations. Revenue of

RM3.3bn was up 14.7% y-o-y attributable to improved yields. However, on a quarterly basis, lower contribution from the cargo business caused a decline in revenue by 5.0%.

· Passenger segment
3Q saw MAS fruitful efforts in improving yields and lowering cost. Although lower by 17.6% y-o-y, passenger yield has been improving slowly since 4Q09 to 24.1 sen/RPK. On a quarterly basis, it rose 0.7% following growth in passenger revenue of 9.7% (-11.8% y-o-y). Meanwhile, unit cost (CASK) was up by 3.5% y-o-y at 26.0 sen/ASK but was q-o-q lower by 8.7% backed by lower fuel cost and savings gained from the stronger Ringgit. CASK-ex fuel stood at 17.5 sen/ASK (+1.7% y-o-y, - 10.2% q-o-q). Removing the RM96m one-off charge for aircraft redelivery, CASK-ex fuel would have decreased by 2.4% y-o-y to 6.4 sen/ASK.

· Lower contribution from cargo q-o-q
Cargo traffic (LTK) declined by 6.8% q-o-q to 592.7m, due to a slowdown in freight activities in September. But y-o-y, traffic was up by 6.2%. This led to a decline in q-o-q revenue of RM484.0m (+34.1% y-o-y). Capacity inched up by 12.5% y-o-y to 824.9m (-1.3% q-o-q).

· Upgrade to BUY
We have revised our numbers to correspond with MAS improved performance. For FY10, we have cut our net loss estimates by 21.5% to - RM180.9m, whereas for FY11-12, we have raised our estimates by 71 and 4% respectively by imputing lower fuel cost and MAS revised fuel hedging policy. Note that MAS have restructured their policy for 2011 by reducing hedged levels to 33% from 40%, with average price of US$93/barrel (previously US$100/barrel). With this, our TP is raised from RM2.08 to RM2.95 based on 6x FY11 EV/EBITDAR (multiple based on average peers) which warrants an upgrade from Hold to Buy.

KE: Starhill Global REIT New beginning beckons

Starhill Global REIT
Initiating Coverage
Price $0.615
Target $0.80
New beginning beckons

We initiate coverage on Starhill Global REIT with a BUY recommendation and target price of $0.80/share. Starhill owns 13 prime commercial properties in stable, high‐growth markets in the Asia Pacific, with retail rental making up 87% of group revenue in 3Q10. DPU growth is bolstered by medium‐ and long‐term leases that provide income stability and rental upside potential, as well as acquisition opportunities. With a clear target to double asset size and the backing of a strong and committed sponsor, Starhill is poised for a new beginning. At 0.7x FY10 P/B and 6.8% FY11F yield, the stock is deeply undervalued.

Steady income from defensive rental structure
Starhill has a stable of master and long‐term leases that comes with built‐in positive rental reviews every few years. This ensures a steady stream of longterm income for the group. Around 44% of its total revenue this year comes from such leases. Its medium‐term leases, which are typically for three years, have rental tied to gross turnover, thus allowing Starhill to ride on market rental recovery and rising consumption in retail markets such as Singapore.

Asset size to double in five years
Unlike many other REITs, Starhill’s REIT manager has a clear target to double Starhill’s portfolio from $2.6b currently to at least $5b in five years. The REIT manager has been sourcing for third‐party assets in China, Australia, Singapore and London, and has a few deals on the negotiating table.

Committed sponsor with deep pocket
Starhill’s sponsor is YTL Corporation Berhad, one of the largest companies listed on Bursa Malaysia. YTL aspires to own a portfolio of prime commercial properties globally under the luxury Starhill brand, and the REIT is a viable vehicle to achieve its dream. Its financial prowess and commitment should provide Starhill with the necessary support for acquisitions.

Sharp discount hard to ignore; initiate with BUY
Starhill is trading at a steep 30% discount to its NAV in stark contrast to the 10‐30% premium commanded by its peers. We think this could be because of the lack of asset enhancement initiatives on its part. Its FY11F DPU yield of 6.8% offers a yield spread as high as 160bps over the yield of some of its retail peers. We initiate coverage with a BUY recommendation and target price of $0.80/share, based on the Dividend Discount Model.

CIMB: 26.11.2010 Chart View

The STI continues to trade below its uptrend channel support turned resistance line at 3,170. Until it can climb back above the trend line and 50-day SMA, we see more weakness in the day ahead. However, note that its RSI is still not yet oversold and still trending down, which means that there should still be room on the downside for the index.

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Malaysian Airline 3QF10 Result











Wednesday, November 24, 2010













HLG: KLCI More challenging times ahead

 The escalating geopolitical tension in Korea is another layer of uncertainty for markets apart from the European debt problems and Chinese inflation. As the external issues outweigh the positive domestic newsflow, the local bourse immediate outlook has turned more cautious and negative.  Technically, the breach of 10-d, 30-d and 40-d SMAs has worsened the FBM KLCI short term technical, reflected by its downtrend in momentum and trend indicators. Immediate resistance levels are 1500, 1532 and 1550 whilst support levels are at 1463 (UTL) and 1420 (100-d SMA).

CIMB: 24.11.10 Chart view

The idea of a rebound on the STI was thrown out the window in early trade yesterday. The breakdown signals that a deep correction is taking place. The first targets are likely 3,044, the 1.382x reverse Fibonacci level, followed by the gap at 3,022-3,035 if the immediate support at 3,119 gives way.

香港跌破23,000·马股大跌15.67点 韩朝开炮亚股暴挫

香港跌破23,000·马股大跌15.67点 韩朝开炮亚股暴挫
2010/11/23 6:29:46 PM
●南洋商报 报道:周汉文





























Tuesday, November 23, 2010

CIMB: STI’s key level is the 50-day SMA

STI’s key level is the 50-day SMA. STI’s correction continued last week, with the key
support level at the 50-day SMA (3,161), which is also the level of the major support
trend line formed since end-May. The index must not go below the channel support or
it could test 3,000 next. The near-term direction remains downwards as the daily
technical indicators are still negative.

CIMB: KLCI still in diagonal triangle

KLCI still in diagonal triangle? The KLCI appears to be testing the underside of the
diagonal triangle currently at 1,508-1,510. There is a small gap at 1,512-1,513, which could act as a magnet and then repel prices. The index is then likely to fall back towards the 50-day SMA at 1,484 and possibly the recent lows of 1,477 and 1,445
next. A break above 1,520 would suggest that the correction is over and the index
could test new highs. However, this is a low-probability scenario.

Kenanga: Fajarbaru Overture for stronger year

Fajarbaru Builder Group
Target Price: RM1.51
Overture for stronger year

l 3M11 net profit of RM4.2m came in line with our expectations and consensus at 14% and 15%, respectively. The net profit jumped by 21% to RM4.2m on the back of 30% reduced in revenue. A strong start for FY11 was mainly due to higher net margin from recently secured projects like double track railway project (southern) and Tampin Hospital project. However, the drop in revenue was attributed to lower progressive billings as most of the projects have been completed in FY10.

l YoY, net profit jumps 21% on lucrative net margin. Despite of drop in revenue, the net profit jumped 21% on the back of improving net margin at 15% as compared to 12%,YoY from the new project secured ie: Tampin Hospital, double track railway and shrimp project in Terengganu.

l QoQ, slower revenue by 37%. The net profit was lower by 60% due to slower progressive billings during the quarter coupled with higher building material cost and the bad debts written back during the preceding quarter. Fajarbaru balance sheet remains healthy with net cash position at 75sen per share.

l Order book worth c. RM350m until FY12. Following the recent project award in the ECER region, we expect Fajarbaru to benefit from the next construction sector run up especially from the LRT extension project. We understand that the award of the project for Phase 1 which worth up to c. RM3b for Ampang and Kelana Jaya Line is expected by end of the year. The management has also indicated that Fajarbaru is bidding for construction for LRT railway track worth RM2b.

l Maintain BUY with unchanged TP at RM1.51. No change to our earnings forecast for FY11 and FY12. We like Fajarbaru as one of our top pick in construction due to its favourable deliverables in terms of margin and as one of the beneficiary for the promising construction outlook in CY11 while trading at only 7.4x PE compared to its peers of 10x.

Apex: KLCI Technical Review

Closing: 1506.05
Support: (S1) 1495 / (S2) 1480 / (S3) 1450
Resistance: (R1) 1530 / (R2) 1570 / (R3) 1600
Comments: The FBM KLCI surged 9.40 points or 0.63% to close at 1506.05 points. The index has retraced back to above the 1500 psychological support level hinting a favourable outlook ahead. It is notable that the index is holding firmly within a middle-uptrend channel for the past few trading days. This sends us a signal that the index is likely to move up further and a new high is possible by end of the year. The immediate resistance is pegged at 1530 followed by 1570. In contrast, the MACD indicator remains unfavourable on the market outlook. A weakening ADX value signalling that the market is losing momentum. The immediate support level is envisaged at 1495 followed by 1480

Monday, November 22, 2010

Kenanga: KLCI Consolidation still

CI clawed back 6.24 points or 0.4% week-on-week as the market consolidated post the corrective pullback from the all-time high of 1,531.99 (intraday). Profit taking couple with a less benign external environment with possible tightening measures in China to rein in its run-away economy as well as uncertainty associated with Ireland had capped our local market’s performance in the near term.

Technically, while the CI’s primary trend remained up as it trades well above its key primary uptrend line and moving averages, the near term picture however remained slightly clouded with the likelihood of further consolidation in the near term. Some possible stabilisation in the RSI after dipping below the uptrend line could indicate that the CI is in for some further consolidation in the near term.

While the market enters into the peak result period between now and month end, it is however unlikely to provide much in catalysts as most are more than likely to come in inline with street’s expectations. Much anticipated listing of Petronas Chemical in the later part of the week could provide some excitement in terms of trading activity but expectations we gather could be a tad ambitious. Externally, the resolution to Ireland’s debt debacle and possible light from the minutes of the US Federal Reserve policy meet in early November on Quantitative Easing 2 could also provide some volatility in the market place.

Overall, we expect local market to continue its consolidation in the near term until and unless key levels including 1,524 – 1,531 are taken out with conviction. Support is pegged at 1,488 – 1,479 still with upside resistance at 1,517 – 1,524 for now.

DBS: Stock picks

DBS: STI Technical Outlook

We maintain our technical view for the index to attain 3438 by 1Q11. At the same time, we stick to our near-term view that trading activity should taper down post 3Q reporting season and heading into the year-end holiday lull period, before picking up again around the Christmas period. Near-term support levels are at 3200 (23.6% downward retracement) and firmer at 3125 (38.2% downward retracement). Expect the 3125 level to halt the Nov-Dec consolidation.

The year-end holiday season is typically a lull period for the stock market. Trading activity during the Nov-Jan period over the past decade has revealed December to be the quietest month 90% of the time. What’s more, the value of shares traded in December has been below the annual average in 8 out of the last10 years. The good news is that interest picks up markedly in January.

We see no exception this year. STI’s rally from 2950 since early September came in anticipation of QE2 as well as the 3Q results season. With the USD600bil QE2 program announced and an end to the 3Q reporting season, we expect market activity to decline upon a general lack of news flow in the weeks ahead.

Still, the major rising trend remains intact and we keep the 3438 objective by 1Q11. In the worst case scenario, we see the 3125 level halting the current near-term consolidation. Nearterm resistances are at 3250 and 3285 during the Nov-Dec lull.

CIMB: 22.11.10 Chart View

We had earlier expected prices to rebound towards 3,240-3,268 but the rebound only managed a high of 3,230. This suggests that prices could weaken further towards the channel support at 3,155. The short term trend is that the index is still down as both its indicators are still in correction mode. The channel support must not be breached to the downside or the index could test 3,000 next.
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)



高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo

There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
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