Saturday, September 18, 2010

Chinese Currency Under Scrutiny Again


THE Obama administration is signalling that it plans to take a tougher stance with China on trade issues,including demanding that Beijing moves more quickly to reform its currency system.

As part of that new approach, the administration filed two new trade cases against China before the World Trade Organization, and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said China must move faster to allow its currency to rise in value against the dollar.

In testimony prepared for two congressional hearings yesterday, he said: “We are very
concerned about the negative impact of (China’s economic) policies on our economic interests.”

On Wednesday, United States Trade Representative Ron Kirk announced that the administration was filing two new trade cases against China before the Geneva- based WTO, which oversees the rules of global trade.

In one of the WTO cases, the administration said China was discriminating against US creditand debit-card companies in favour of a state-owned financial- services firm.

The other case contended that China had improperly imposed trade sanctions on a type of US-made flat-rolled steel used in electric transformers, reactors and other types of power-generating equipment.

In Beijing, Chinese government officials said there would be no immediate reaction to the new trade cases or to Mr Geithner’s comments.

Up until now, the administration has declined to label China a currency manipulator, a designation that would trigger talks between the two nations and could lead to trade sanctions if the US won a case against China’s currency policies before the
WTO.

Source: mypaper

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

胡立阳“地心引力”理论

要点:好股票也要波段操作,涨多了也要跌,再差的股票,跌得太多会反弹。
另一种解释也可以:价格 围绕价值波动。股票还有围绕成本线波动,要关注主力的建仓成本。

"地心引力"理论:股市指数冥冥中跟着一根线在跑,就是"地心引力"。涨太多了就吸下来,跌太多了就收上来。

真正的那根线,就是30日指数的均价,加上72日指数的均价,加起来除以2,就可以得出这个数字。

假设这个指数是4000点,在它上方,要被吸上来的区域是10%,就是4400点,这需要小心谨慎,只宜卖出,不宜买进。突然有一天利空来了,4000点下跌10%,下方就是3600点,这个地方应该是买进的

。"地心引力"指标随时发生变动,它能帮助大家看清这个股市究竟是在高位还是低位区域。

FBM KLCI Technical Projection Target At 1,668! -rhb



♦ With a confirmation candle registered at above the 1,450 level yesterday, the FBM KLCI has also confirmed an extension mode of the current uptrend.

♦ As reiterated in our Daily Trading Strategy reports, the next effective resistance level is only seen at 1,524.69. But, given the solid breakout momentum and the improved daily turnover in recent sessions, the buying support is expected to persist momentarily.

♦ With a technical projection based on the Fibonacci Projection levels (Chart 3) on the major swing from 836 (Mar 2009) to 1,350 (May 2010), a 1.618x Fibonacci Projection target will point the index to a level near 1,668.

♦ Should the current uptrend be maintained at above the 1,390 – 1,400 support region, and the FBM KLCI manages to surpass the all-time high level of 1,524.69 with powerful buying support on the core bluechips, we are of the view that the Fibonacci Projection level of 1.618x target at 1,668 can be reached in the medium term.

♦ As a result, we reiterate our bullish technical outlook on the FBM KLCI for short-, medium- and long-term periods, and foresee a Stronger Technical Bull Run underw ay!

FBM KLCI Poised To Revisit The 1,524.69 All-Time High Level Soon -rhb



♦ According to Chart , the FBM KLCI kicked off a sustainable rebound from 820 – 920 support region in Mar 2009, after a powerful bear rally in 2008.

♦ As the index moved higher near the Extended Neckline Resistance region near 1,250 – 1,300 in late 2009, profit-taking activities were stiff, as investors in general, betted that the rally could come to an end for a serious correction phase.

♦ However, after months of struggling near the Extended Neckline Resistance, the FBM KLCI managed to secure its position at above the Neckline, with the 10-week SMA beginning to turn upward in Jul 2010.

♦ Technically, a positive reversal on the 10-week SMA at above the 40-week SMA near the Neckline Resistance indicated a likely extension of the more-than-one-year old uptrend on the FBM KLCI.

♦ As a result, the index removed the 1,350 level in Jul and breached the 1,390 key resistance level and the 1,400 psychological hurdle in Aug.

♦ Following the successful breakthrough of the critical resistance zone of 1,390 – 1,400, the medium-term outlook of the FBM KLCI has turned more bullish.

♦ Given the four positive weekly candles in the last five trading weeks, the index is poised to revisit the 1,524.69 all-time high level soon, in our view.

♦ So long as the index sustains at above the 1,390 – 1,400 support region, its medium-term outlook will remain firmly positive and the current uptrend is likely to persist.

Long-term Technical Outlook Stays Firmly Bullish…

♦ Given the steady uptrend since Mar last year, the FBM KLCI has been lifted successfully back to above its Long-term Uptrend Line (UTL) in late 2009, as shown in Chart 2 above.

♦ As it moved past the 1,250 key resistance level in late 2009, the 10-month SMA has cut above the 40-month SMA nearby 1,150. This technical change indicates a fresh extension of the long-term uptrend on the FBM KLCI.

♦ To date, the index has recorded four consecutive positive candles on the monthly chart, suggesting an imminent retest of the all-time high level at 1,524.69 soon.

♦ Chances are if the momentum continues, the index is likely to see a fresh all-time high level in the next few months.

♦ According to the chart, the long-term support level for the index is seen at between the 1,150 and 1,250 region. This also means that even with a sharp correction from the current level, should the index remain firmly supported at above the UTL and the 1,150 – 1,250 region, its long-term bullish technical outlook will stay intact.

Starhill Global REIT -ocbc

Starhill Global REIT
Maintain BUY
Previous Rating: BUY
Current Price: S$0.585
Fair Value: S$0.65

Compelling from both yield & P/NAV perspective

Shoppes cannibalization fears overdone. New retail space at The Shoppes at Marina Bay Sands has begun to open. We believe cannibalization concerns for retail landlords such as Starhill Global REIT may be exaggerated as 1) Orchard Road is likely to remain a key shopping destination in its own right; 2) the product range / price tiers available in, for instance, a Chanel store in The Shoppes and one in Takashimaya are expected to be fairly different. In fact, the increased tourist arrivals led by the re-making of Singapore should more than offset such concerns, in our view. Driven by new attractions such as the Integrated Resorts, visitor numbers have jumped 23% YoY to 6.6m arrivals in the seven months to Jul.

Singapore retail still a key component. We are positive on the retail property sector not only as tourism and increasing consumer confidence drive spending, but also relative to the residential sector, which has significant policy overhang. We note that while Starhill is classified as a diversified REIT, about 66.4% of its asset value stems from Singapore. In addition, we estimate that Singapore retail contributes roughly 51.9% of Starhill's FY10F gross revenue and 47.6% of FY11F gross revenue (the slight dip reflects the full-year contributions from the recent Malaysia and Australia acquisitions).

Compelling from both yield and NAV perspective. Market chatter on S-REITs has been primarily focused on the high yields relative to benchmarks including the 10-year government bond yield. Starhill certainly delivers on this front with estimated FY10F and FY11F yields of 6.6% and 6.8%. This is just a tad shy of the S-REIT sector average of 6.8% (FY10F) and 7.0% (FY11F). But what makes Starhill particularly compelling to us is that it trades at a significant 35% discount to book value vis-à-vis the meager 4% discount-to-book offered on average by the broader S-REIT sector. We believe this discount is unjustified considering Starhill's high-quality assets, healthy balance sheet and its strong sponsor.

Valuation. Our DDM-derived fair value estimate of S$0.65 (6.7% discount rate, 0.5% terminal growth rate) is intact; this is equivalent to a fairly reasonable (in our opinion) 0.72x priceto- book. With an estimated total return of 17.7%, we maintain our BUY rating on Starhill. Starhill is also one of our top picks for the S-REIT sector. Key risks to our view include macroeconomic headwinds, foreign exchange risk and changing regulatory and taxation regimes.


Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Small Cap Monitor -cimb

• Small companies, big value. The performance of our small-cap universe in the recent reporting season was not as impressive as in the previous quarter. A third of the 18 small caps which announced their quarterly financial results in Aug failed to meet our expectations, up from only 16% for 1QCY10. Share price wise, the F&B and packaging stocks are the top performers YTD while rubber glove companies are the biggest losers. Small-cap stocks still offer great value as they are trading at an average CY11 P/E of only 8.5x, a 40% discount to the KLCI’s 13.8x P/E. We continue to OVERWEIGHT the small-cap sector. Our core top picks are in sectors that enjoy steady earnings growth such as rubber glove, plastic packaging and F&B.

Latexx Partners replaces Wellcall Holdings as our top pick among the small caps.










Sunday, September 12, 2010

胡立阳 箱型投资原理 (财经追击 11.09.10)

当指数在某个区间上下波动,投资者可以利用箱型投资原理,了解买进和卖出的位置。

以海峡时报指数为例子。在突破3000点大关之前,海指曾经游走在2700点和3000点之间超过半年。这正好形成一个箱形。2700点就是箱子底部,当指数触底时,建议买进。当指数触碰箱子顶部,建议卖出。

如今,随着海指突破3000点,新的箱子形成了。3000点就成了新箱子的底部。




Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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