Friday, July 2, 2010

雲頂大馬-購姐妹賭場受抨擊





Starhill Global REIT - Assets (Japan)

The Japan assets



Starhill's Japan portfolio was acquired over 2007. The seven Tokyo properties are located in the prime areas of Omotesando, Roppongi, Harajyuku, Meguro and Ebisu. The assets are within five minutes' walk from subway stations. The properties target the mid-income segment; with Harajyuku Secondo also targeting "fashionable teenagers" and Holon L specifically targeting the "young trendy female" 24. Starhill has had issues with occupancy - only four of the seven properties were fully occupied at 31 Dec 2009. In Nov 09, Starhill terminated master leases and property management agreements with Future Revolution, K.K25. across its portfolio. Starhill is now dealing directly with the end-tenants there; the manager also appointed Savills Japan K.K. as the local asset and property manager for the portfolio.

Starhill Global REIT - Assets (Australia)

David Jones Building (Perth, Australia)



PERTH, AUSTRALIA
Perth is the capital city of Western Australia, Australia's largest state - occupying about one-third of Australia's total landmass21 . The state has enjoyed strong economic growth on the back of the minerals resources and oil & gas industries. Western Australia's economy has grown by about 4% per annum, on average, over the ten years to 2008-09, outperforming the broader nation's 3.5% growth rate22 . In the 2010 survey by the Economist Intelligence Unit, Perth was ranked the ninth most livable city in the world.

The Western Australia government is currently attempting to extend trading hours in the Perth metropolitan area from 5 PM to 9 PM on weeknights. The legislation applies to all retail shops and supermarket chains, such as Coles and Woolworths. Shops selling "durable consumer goods", such as white goods and furniture, could also be permitted to trade on Sundays. The new legislation is designed to improve convenience and bring Perth's retailing landscape in line with both other Australian states and 20 other Western Australian towns that enjoy extended trading hours because of their classification as tourist precincts. The Western Australia premier, Mr Colin Barnett, was able to reach an in-principle agreement on this issue with opposition leader, Mr Eric Ripper in Jun 201023 .


The Australia asset. David Jones Building is located in Perth's Central Business District (CBD) and has dual frontage to Murray Street and Hay Street, the only two retail pedestrian streets in the city. The property was redeveloped in 2002. Located within walking distance of the Perth Central train station, the asset is also linked to another major department store via a covered walkway on the first floor. Australian-listed David Jones Ltd, the anchor tenant, occupies roughly 95% of the total gross lettable area and accounts for 75% of the annual gross rent. The remainder of the space is occupied by six specialty tenants. David Jones is an up-market operator of 37 premium department stores across Australia. It holds a lease in the building until October 2032; the lease agreement incorporates a rent review every three years. The leases with the specialty tenants, meanwhile, have an annual rent increase component. Starhill's manager has plans to review asset enhancement options for more optimal utilization of space in the property.

Starhill Global REIT - Assets (China)

Renhe Spring Zongbei (Chengdu, China)



Chengdu is the capital of Sichuan, China - one of the largest provinces in China by population. The city serves as a transport and communications hub for north-west China. Chengdu recorded GDP growth of 14.7% YoY in 200918 . Retail sales grew 20.3% YoY in 2009 to RMB 195b. Meanwhile, per capita income and consumption expenditure of urban households grew to RMB 18,659 (+10.13% YoY) and RMB 14,088 (+9.63% YoY) respectively19 .


In its 2009 annual report, Starhill noted in-land cities like Chengdu, who are "less dependent on foreign exports [or the] international market", were not as badly affected by the global economic recession. It noted that "prime retail rents are expected to remain stable in 2010" despite additional retail supply as more overseas and domestic retailers enter and/or expand into the Chengdu market.


The China asset. Renhe Spring Zongbei, the Chengdu asset, was acquired in Aug 2007. Located in a high-end commercial and high income area, the property is positioned as a "mid-to-high end department store"20 . It is part of a mixed-use development that includes an office component. As of 31 Dec 2009, tenants included Prada, Hugo Boss, Chopard, Miss Sixty and Armani Jeans. Sales grew 21.9% YoY in 2009. We note that as a department store, lease tenures are short and typically range between three months to a year.


Zongbei operates under the "Renhe Spring" brand name. The Renhe Spring Group operates the department store for an annual fee linked to gross turnover; the group has also granted a net profit guarantee to Starhill for four years from 2007. This is equivalent to an income guarantee of RMB26.4m per annum to Aug 2011. Starhill also retains a first right of refusal to Renhe Spring Group's pipeline of opportunities in China (including a flagship store and a development project with approximately 430,000 square feet and 540,000 square feet of retail space respectively).

Starhill Global REIT - Assets (Malaysia)

Starhill Gallery


The Malaysia assets. Starhill Gallery and Lot 10 are located in Bukit Bintang, a prominent retail belt in Kuala Lumpur's so-called Golden Triangle. We understand that the positioning of the two malls is akin to that of Ngee Ann City and Wisma Atria (respectively) here in Singapore. Starhill Gallery is positioned as a lifestyle destination that targets affluent tourists and high-end shoppers. The luxury mall's tenants include Louis Vuitton, Audemars Piguet, Bottega Venetta, Boucheron, Chopard and Van Cleef &

Arpels. The mall holds an annual "A Journey Through Time" watch exhibition. Starhill Gallery was recently featured in the New York Times article on "The 31 Places to Go in 2010" in the Kuala Lumpur segment.

Lot 10


Lot 10 was recently repositioned to target young urbanites. With a 'Forest in the City' concept, the complex features landscaped gardens and extensive greenery. The basement has been revamped into a heritage gourmet village. Tenants include the soon-to-be opened Debenhams flagship store, Apple, National Geographic and Celebrity Fitness. The Malaysia acquisitions are on a long-term master lease for a tenancy term of 3+3+3 years; the lease incorporates step-up features. The payment obligations of the master tenant will be guaranteed by Starhill's sponsor YTL.


Key drivers supporting the retail sector in Malaysia include consumer spending, stable employment levels and a flourishing tourism industry. Tourist arrivals to Malaysia grew 7.2% YoY to 23.6m visitors in 200916 . Starhill believes17 that the reduction in the personal income tax rate from 27% in 2009 to 26% in 2010 will further drive retail sales, which contributed approximately 18.2% to total GDP in 2009.

Starhill Global REIT - Assets (Singapore)

Wisma Atria


The Singapore assets - WA. Wisma Atria (WA) and Ngee Ann City (NAC) are landmark assets on Orchard Road, Singapore's premier shopping street. Located between CapitaMall Asia [CMA, BUY, FV: S$2.40]'s newly opened ION Orchard and NAC, WA is linked directly to the Orchard MRT station. WA is positioned as a mall for "confident, stylish, contemporary and financially independent women"14 . Tenants include Nike, Forever 21, Gap, Din Tai Fung, and Food Republic. Starhill derived 81.7% of its FY09 WA gross revenue from retail tenants and 18.3% from office tenants. Fashion; shoes & accessories; and F&B contributed 81% of WA's retail gross rent in Dec 2009. After a temporary closure of more than two and a half years, the basement linkway from the Orchard MRT station to WA was reopened in Jun 2009. Starhill reported that this resulted in a 59% YoY increase in centrewide shopper traffic. Subsequently, the pair of escalators leading from the street level to the basement were removed and converted back to revenue-generating retail space in 4Q09. The opening of ION Orchard has further boosted traffic, and Starhill reported a 77.2% YoY growth in shopper traffic from late Jul to end Dec 2009.

Ngee Ann City (NAC)



The Singapore assets - NAC. An underground pedestrian walkway links WA to Basement 1 of NAC. NAC also has an underpass from the opposite side of Orchard Road that boosts pedestrian flow. An open concourse outside NAC regularly hosts events such as the Singapore Fashion Festival and the Singapore Lion Dance Championship. A large event hall also draws traffic. NAC targets the "affluent shopper", the "young and upwardly mobile", as well as the "family crowd"15 . Tenants at NAC include Louis Vuitton, Chanel, Cartier, Guess, Zara, Takashimaya Department Store and Books Kinokuniya. Starhill derived 74.0% of its FY09 NAC revenue from retail tenants and 18.3% from office tenants.



Master tenant Toshin Development Co Ltd (Toshin) contributed 64.1% of NAC's Dec 09 gross rent and holds 57.2% of its NLA. Toshin leases retail space from Basement 2 to Level 4 and sublets the space to a various retailers. It also manages all other specialty areas in NAC ensuring consistency of branding across the entire property. A subsidiary of Tokyolisted Takashimaya Co Ltd, Toshin holds a master lease that provides for a rent review every three years (upwards only, subject to a cap of 25%). The

most recent rent review in Jun 2008 resulted in a rent increase of 19.75% over the preceding rent. The next rent review is due a year from now, in Jun 2011. The Toshin lease expires in Jun 2013, and we understand Toshin has an option to renew the lease for another 12 years.



In its 2009 annual report, Starhill noted "Singapore retail sales look to be on the path of recovery" and that the downward pressure on retail rents should ease with improving consumer sentiment, the high take-up of new retail space and "the introduction of a number of new-to-market brands and concepts". Starhill also said it was cautious on the Singapore office market despite improved economic prospects. It expected tenant retention to be "a top priority for most office landlords in 2010 amid thinner prospective

tenant demand as existing office occupiers will have to consider incurring relocation and fitting-out costs".

Starhill Global REIT - Key Milestones

Starhill Global REIT - Valuation

Starhill Global REIT - Refinancing Profile (ex Malaysia)

Starhill Global REIT - Details of Leases

Starhill Global REIT - Portfolio

Starhill Global REIT-ocbc

Starhill Global REIT: Compelling investment case; initiate with BUY rating

Summary: Starhill Global REIT (Starhill) owns 13 properties across five countries with retail and office components. Starhill may benefit from sponsor YTL Corporation Berhad, one of the largest listed companies on the Bursa Malaysia, not only in terms of indirect and/or direct financial support but also through YTL’s strong relationships with major global retailers.

Approximately 42% of Starhill’s revenue is derived from long-tenure and master leases that provide long-term income stability to the REIT along with potential for rental upside. Starhill is trading at a 34% discount to its book value (as of 31 Mar 2010), which we believe is unjustified considering Starhill’s high-quality assets, healthy balance sheet and its strong sponsor. Our DDM-derived fair value estimate of S$0.65 translates to an estimated total return of 26%. Initiate coverage with BUY rating.

Key risks to our view include macro-economic headwinds, increasing competition in the retail space, foreign exchange risk and changing regulatory and taxation regimes. (Meenal Kumar)

Thursday, July 1, 2010

Market Outlook

Risk Is A Sharper-than-expected Slowdown In 2H, Not A “Double- dip”

Whilst Europe’s sovereign debt problems and China’s credit tightening plans have dampened optimism about the health of the world economy, we believe the risk of a “double-dip” is manageable. This is mainly on account of :

(i) Emergency stabilisation packages have already been put in place in Europe to prevent contagion and confidence from spiralling downward. Consequently, the European debt problems will unlikely snowball into a much bigger issue that will jeopardise the global economic recovery;

(ii) Many of the eastern and central European countries have already suffered double-digit economic contraction last year and are undergoing restructuring;

(iii) With US and Asia ex-Japan economies firmly on recovery path, Germany, being financially stable and the largest economy in Europe, can export and provide the cushion to stabilise the European region;

(iv) More sustainable US economic recovery where consumer spending is picking up and labour market conditions are improving (see Chart 7); and

(v) Economic recovery in Asia ex-Japan is building momentum relatively well and appears sustainable in the absence of a major exogenous shock given the relatively healthy balance sheets of the private and public sectors in this region.

Nevertheless, the austerity measures undertaken by each of the major economies in Europe, such as Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy and UK, to reduce the fiscal deficit and restructure the debt suggest that the economic recovery could stall and fall back in these countries. This would imply weaker external demand for export-dependent economies and hence, a significant risk of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the global economy in the 2H of 2010 that could persist into the 1H of 2011, in our view.

Source: rhb

Construction Sector Outlook

Construction :

A “Tactical” Play In A News Flow Driven Market

We are upgrading the construction sector to Overweight from Neutral as we foresee construction stocks to generally outperform the market in 2H2010, buoyed by news flow, particularly, from: (1) The RM36bn KL mass rapid transit (MRT) project; and (2) The RM7bn Ampang and Kelana Jaya light rail transit (LRT) line extension project.

Assuming the KL MRT project is to eventually materialise and the contract goes to the 50:50 Gamuda-MMC Corp JV, between now and the actual award of the contract,a series of events can buoy, if not sustain Gamuda’s share price. These include: (1) The expected almost daily doses of news and commentaries on the KL MRT project and the Government’s plan to improve the public transportation system in the Klang Valley under the newly announced 10th Malaysia Plan (10MP); (2) The green light for the project from the Cabinet; (3) The thumbs up for the project from businesses, particularly, property developers, and the public; and (4) The commencement of the actual physical works, particularly, site preparation, as we believe the Gamuda-MMC Corp JV is inclined to start ahead of the formal award of the contract (as in the case of the SMART tunnel a few years ago).

For the much delayed Ampang and Kelana Jaya LRT line extension project, it now appears that it is finally getting off the ground. Syarikat Prasarana Negara (Prasarana), the national public transportation system holding company (an SPV wholly-owned by the Ministry of Finance Incorporated), was recently quoted by the press as saying that a “pre-bid briefing” and a “site visit” for pre-qualified main contractors (see Table 16) were held on 22 and 27 Jun 2010 respectively and the contractors were given six weeks to submit their tenders after the site visit (that means by around mid-Aug 2010). Next, Prasarana would need three months to evaluate the tenders before the award of contracts would take place (that means by around mid-Nov 2010). It said that “construction work should start by the end of the year”. The news flow on the project is expected to sustain interest on construction stocks that have been shortlisted as main contractors and segmental box girder sub-contractors to the project (also see Table 16).

In addition, news flow can also come from other public projects earmarked for implementation under the 10MP (see Table 17) as well as “high-impact” projects worth RM62.7bn “under consideration” to be implemented via the private finance initiative (PFI) model, backed by a RM20bn “facilitation fund” set up to “bridge the viability gap for private sector investment in projects with high strategic value to the nation and multiplier effects” (see Table 18).

While we believe the market is fully aware that certain negative elements are still lingering in the sector, we feel that it is likely to “brave” these negative elements and forge ahead with its move to position itself ahead of the curve, underpinned by the collective “buy-first-on-news” mentality. These negative elements include: (1) A 23% lower “hard” gross development expenditure of RM138bn under the 10MP, compared with RM179bn under the 9th Malaysia Plan (9MP); (2) The still slow pace of the roll-out of public projects as taking the delivery system to the next level appears to be an uphill battle; (3) A highly competitive market and declining dominance of established players in large-scale projects locally; and (4) The not-so- rosy outlook and increased operating risks in key overseas markets (following the Dubai credit crisis, Dong’s devaluation and rising arbitration cases).

Our top “tactical” pick for the sector is Gamuda as we believe its share price will be buoyed by the sustained news flow from the RM36bn KL MRT project. Our top “value” pick for the sector is Sunway due to its undemanding valuation of 7-8x 1- year forward earnings on a fully-diluted basis, coupled with its strong earnings visibility stemming from its firm construction margins and growing non-construction profits.

Source: rhb

Property Sector Outlook

Property : Overweight

Still Room For Growth For Developers,

M-REITs Poised For More Re-Rating

In 2H2010, we believe news flow will take precedence over fundamentals in driving the share price performance of property developers. Positive news flow is likely to come from: (1) The formal awards of Federal land parcels (see Table 39) to “master evelopers” and the subsequent farming out of the sub-divided smaller land parcels to various developers; and (2) The increased interest and hence prices in land and properties including residential, commercial and industrial in Iskandar Malaysia on expectation of rising investment and hence economic activities in the growth corridor, on the back of the improving ties between Malaysia and Singapore.



On the flip side of the coin, share prices of developers may take a beating if the International Financial Reporting Interpretations Committee 15 (IFRIC 15) is to be adopted as per scheduled on 1 Jul 2010. Basically, IFRIC only allows property development income to be recognised on a “completion” basis, vis-à-vis “progress” previously. This will result in high earnings volatility due to lumpy profit recognition. Naturally, developers with a large portfolio of projects (including township development) and investment properties (such as SP Setia, IJM Land, Mah Sing and SunCity) will be less affected, while project-driven developers especially those in the high-rise and commercial segments (such as Glomac, YNHP, Sunrise and Hunza) will take the full blunt.



Fundamentally, we expect key property developers to continue to report sales growth in 2H2010 as well as into 2011, underpinned by: (1) Improving economic outlook; (2) The still relatively easy monetary conditions; and (3) The rising inflationary expectation.



The improving economic outlook eases the concern that sales may fall off the cliff once the pent-up demand from the crisis years of 2008 and 2009 is gradually exhausted. A better economic outlook will provide an extra kicker to growth in baseline demand for properties, in addition to favourable structural attributes such as a young population, rapid urbanisation and the continued shift to nuclear families from extended families in Malaysia.



Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) raised the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) by another 25bps on 13 May 2010 to 2.5%, following 25bps on 4 Mar 2010 to normalise interest rates. We expect BNM to raise the OPR by another 25bps during its Sep 2010 policy meeting. While we acknowledge that, ceteris paribus, the rising OPR will have some negative bearing on property sales as it erodes affordability, based on our projections of 2.75% by end-2010 and 3.25-3.50% by end-2011, the OPR is still below the historical average of 3.00-3.50% in 2010, before it normalises in 2011.



Our top developer picks are Mah Sing (opportunistic land acquisition strategy, fast turnaround time; OP, FV = RM2.09), IJM Land (highly diversified geographically as well as in terms of product offering; OP, FV = RM3.11) as well as SunCity (an established commercial/high-end residential property developer primarily in the Klang Valley; OP, FV = RM5.33).



We believe the M-REIT sector is due for another round of re-rating, thanks largely to the rising investability of the sector on the back of a quantum-leap in the sector’s size after the listing of at least three new M-REITs comprising Sunway REIT, CapitaMalls Malaysia Trust and Qatar REIT. While there has been a re-rating of the M-REIT sector in recent years, it has very much gone unnoticed due to the lack of research coverage. We believe this is about to change.



The re-rating of the M-REIT sector, which we define as the valuation convergence between M-REITs and their more established peers S-REITs, has actually become apparent since 2007. On a normalised basis (i.e. excluding 4Q08, 1Q09 and 2Q09 at the height of the recent financial crisis), the yield gap between M-REITs and S- REITs has narrowed from 316 bps in 2007 to 197 bps in 2008, and further to 132 bps in 2009-2010 (see Chart 24). With the more-than-doubling in the M-REIT sector’s market value from about RM5bn currently to RM11bn over the near term that will bring along with it a much improved relative investability of the M-REITsector vis-à-vis the S-REIT sector, we expect the convergence/re-rating to accelerate further.



Our top pick for the sector is Axis REIT (proven track record with hands-on management and its aggressive acquisition plans; OP, FV = RM2.35).

Source: rhb

Major Economies Showing Signs Of Softening

Major Economies Showing Signs Of Softening
In the US, the economy moderated to an annualised rate of 2.7% in 1Q 2010, after a strong growth in the 4Q of last year. Despite a weaker growth, the economic recovery is becoming more sustainable, as its recovery which started from the government stimulus and inventory rebuilding, has now spread to consumer spending. Nonetheless, consumers have turned cautious and are beginning to take a pause in view of rising economic uncertainties in Europe and the policies tightening in Asia. Consequently, real personal consumption expenditure stagnated m-o-m in April, the first in seven months. Furthermore, unemployment rate remains high and job creation in the non-farm private sector slowed down in May, after four consecutive months of picking up, implying that a recovery in consumer spending will likely be gradual. Elsewhere, manufacturing activities slowed down in May, while services activities held stable during the month. As a whole, the US economy is projected to grow at a more moderate pace of 2.8% in 2H 2010, compared with +3.2% in the first half, bringing the full-year growth to around +3.0%, a rebound from -2.4% in 2009.

Similarly, the Euroland’s economy is expected to sustain its slow pace of recovery in 2010, as the deepening sovereign debt problems of late would force some countries to cut government spending sharply. Already, manufacturing activities in the region showed a first sign of weakness in eight months and since it returned to positive growth in October last year, while there were warning signs that services activities may be peaking as well. Also, consumer confidence weakened to the lowest level in seven months in May, after a temporary improvement in April. In the same vein, a slowdown in global export demand will likely contribute to a slower growth in the Japanese economy in the 2H of the year. This will likely be compounded by political uncertainties that could affect the country’s efforts to shake off deflationary pressure.

In China, the country’s economy is showing signs of weakness following the introduction of measures to control the rapid credit expansion and upward property prices. As it stands, manufacturing activities slowed down to the slowest pace in three months in May, while fixed-asset investment in urban areas and loans slowed down from growth of more than 30% to 25.9% and 23.2% respectively in May.

Similarly, retail sales were off the peak in February though exports remained resilient. As a whole, the key economic indicators point to a slowdown in the country’s economic growth in the 2H of the year, though growth will likely remain resilient, after recording a stronger growth of +11.9% yoy in the 1Q.

Source: rhb

Very low probability of double-dip recession: iCapital



Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:01/07/2010

亚洲金融风暴给我上了一课

亚洲金融风暴给我上了一课

上一次,我提到我在1998年亚洲金融风暴中,因为股市狂跌而亏掉一半财富。

那段经历刻骨铭心,那种痛楚我现在想起来犹如昨日一般清晰。  

你也可曾有投资亏钱的经历?

我反复思索后,恍然大悟,我投资亏钱的主要原因竟然是我没学习如何理财与投资。

  我明白, 除非我学习如何掌控财务,当自己的“理财掌门
人”,否则以后还是会在投资的路上不断“闯祸”,弄得遍体鳞伤。

从别人的错误学习理财
亚洲金融风暴期间,我在银行工作,处理贷款事宜,亲眼见到一些白手起家,几十年后终于累积财富的企业家,因为在经济蓬勃时过度借贷,在经济萧条时,营业额大跌,现金周转不灵企业面临倒闭,甚至宣告破产。

  在1998年,新加坡的房地产市场也因为金融风暴而暴跌40%至50%,一间在1997年售价$1million的公寓,在1998年的市价只剩$600,000。连组屋的售价也大幅度下跌。举例,一间在1997年以$800,000出售的HDB转售组屋在1998年市价跌至$500,000,或跌了37%。

  随着裁员与一些外来人才被解雇,本地公寓的租金也大幅度下跌30%,有很多在1998年建成的公寓甚至租不出去而空置着。

  而一些“炒卖”超出自己经济负担能力的房地产投机者,因无法负担银行贷款的还款,被银行逼卖房子而落到失去房子,甚至宣告破产的下场。

心得总结
在银行工作的我,亲眼目睹了这一切,也因此庆幸自己当初没有因为“ 贪婪” 而过度借贷。因此,我只损失了一半的财富,而不至于宣告破产。

  我发现,一般人房屋贷款以外的其他开销通常占收入的大约50%。在经济不景气时,人们可能被减薪高达15%,因此,我们每月的房屋贷款还款不应该超过收入的35%。

股市有周期
自然界有“春夏秋冬”四季,投资市场也有“牛市”与“熊市”。“夏天”虽然“牛气冲天”,但夏天过后,天气会转凉,进入秋季。秋季后,就是严寒的冬季。牛市的尽头就是“熊市”的开始。

  “花无百日红”,当股价与房价狂涨时,记得不要失去理智,做出超过自己经济负担能力的投资,也不要过度借贷。

  夏天结束,秋天是“收成”的时候,应该是卖掉股票的时候,而不是大举进场投资的时候。

  如果我在1997年当牛市将尽时卖掉股票,我便能保住1993年至1997年在股市中赚到的钱。如果我等到 “寒冬”,在市场一遍哀鸿遍野时再大举进场,我便能在1998年股市近谷低时低价入场。

  从1998年,这所谓的“市场周期”投资策略 (Market Cycle Investing) 便成为我投资策略中非常重要的一环。

机会资本的重要性

我便可以乘股价低时买进股票。
  自从那次教训后,我发现在经济好时,我们应该尽量“囤”现金,就如农夫会先囤粮食,以安然度过寒冬。

  危机蕴藏“契机”,但是,你得要有“机会资本”(多余的钱)才能在机会出现时把握时机“捡便宜货” (低价买入股票)。

  我吸取亚洲金融风暴的教训,两年后,在2000年当科技股泡沫破灭后,因为在股价大跌前卖掉股票,躲避了再次亏钱的厄运。

  在2002年,当股市跌了超过50%时,我再度入场。虽然股市在2002年继续下跌,在2003年3月才跌到最低点,但是,我仍然在2003年至2007年的“牛市”中大赚超过200%的回报。

学会投资是赚钱的关键
我不断钻研各类“基础”投资法与“技术与图表分析”,在2007年,当全球股市不断创新高、市场一片沸沸扬扬时,我发现中国上海股市“市盈率”(MarketPrice Earning Ratio) 超过50倍以及股票盈利利率(EarningsYield)是2%。

  我意识到牛市将尽,而熊市将至,毅然将大部分股票以高价卖出。

  我也学会如何分析上市公司的财务报表,懂得分辨公司财务基础是否良好,从而避开一些财务基础薄弱的公司。

  事实证明,在2008年,当金融海啸席卷全球时,一些财务基础薄弱的公司,因为过度借贷,现金周转出现问题而面临倒闭的厄运。

心得总结
何谓财务基础薄弱的公司?  财务基础薄弱的公司通常贷款对资本比率(Debt to EquityRatio)超过100%;在竞争激烈的行业中,净利率(Net ProfitMargin)少过10%;或贷款利息覆盖率低于3倍(或利息费用超过公司净盈利33%)。

  在2008年,我因为在2007年在股市狂跌以前卖掉股票与房地产,保住了2003年至2007年赚到的盈利,成功累积了$1 million。

作者是合格财务策划师,
拥有多年的银行工作经验,在2003年创办房贷咨询网站
www.HousingLoanSG.com

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Pacific Shipping Trust -dbs

Pacific Shipping Trust announced that it had entered into two ship sales contracts with Mitsubishi Corporation of Japan to acquire two new 180,000 dwt capesize bulk carriers for US$61.6m each. The vessels come with a 10 -year long term charter attached, the counterparty being Jiangsu Shangang Group of China, which is China's largest private steel maker. The 2 vessels represent about 28% of current book value and is PST's first diversification away from the container sector. No immediate impact, but may be DPU accretive in FY12 and beyond. Maintain Buy, TP: US$ 0.37.

STI’s short-term upside potential to 2950 (max 3000)-dbs

Weekly Comments
We raise STI’s rebound potential to 2950 but not exceeding 3000, as stronger-than-expected industrial production q-t-d should lift optimism about Singapore’s 2Q GDP and the upcoming 2Q results season. The outperformance of Asian equities (versus global) that started last week could continue and underpin markets in the near-term. Near-term support is at 2810-2830.

However, we maintain our view that STI will turn lower again once the current rebound ends, which should lead to a re-test of the recent low at 2650 at least. Post-results, the concern about the possibility of a slowdown in 2H may return.

STI’s short-term upside potential to 2950 (max 3000) represents further gains of 3.5-5.2%, which is not plenty to shout about. Thus, we maintain a trading stance (i.e. buy at slightly above 2800, sell at 2950 or slightly higher) and stay selective on our stock picks.

Monday, June 28, 2010

賭球執照落空概念股下滑

Premium/discount of S-REITS to their stated Net Asset Values. June 21

Market Review

RENEWED weakness on Wall Street tempered investor confidence in Asian stock markets, where bellwether indices ended the week on a mixed note. The overall sentiment remained one of caution as investors sieved through a mixed bag of news and data for leads on the outlook for the global economy.

Gains in the region earlier in the week could be attributed, in part, to China's decision to allow greater flexibility in the yuan's exchange rate, which has been fixed against the US dollar for the past two years. A stronger yuan would make the rest of the region's exports more competitive and at the same time lift China's purchasing power. Having said that, there is no indication that the Chinese government will welcome any material appreciation for its currency over the short term. Elsewhere, news that the European Union will publish results of bank stress tests next month soothed, to a certain degree, solvency worries.

On the other hand, weak housing figures in the US — with the boost from government tax credits coming to an end — suggest that recovery in the world's largest economy remains uneven. Others worry that fears of a Greek-like debt crisis are creating a wave of tighter fiscal policies around the world, which could harm the fragile recovery. The new coalition government in the UK was the latest to announce deep budget cuts and higher taxes, following similar moves in Germany, France and Japan.

We suspect equity markets will stay range bound in the near term pending greater clarity on the health of the global economy. Given prevailing uncertainties, investors are likely to be biased towards less risky assets, for now.

Stocks in our model portfolio fared well last week, again, far outperforming the benchmark index

Note: This report is brought to you by Asia Analytica Sdn Bhd

InsiderAsia's model portfolio — Week 383

Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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