Saturday, June 19, 2010

4屆世界杯馬股3跌1起

過去4屆世界杯,股市都沒有好表現。今年6月,股市是否會打破“世界杯魔咒”?

1994年、1998年、2002年及2006年4屆世界杯,馬股僅在06年小起9.46點,從6月9日的915.40點揚至7月10日的924.86點。

后面3屆馬股全倒地,02年下滑17.11點、98年下挫68.55點、94年下跌32.99點。

98年跌勢最慘重,是因為碰上嚴重的亞洲金融危機。


Friday, June 18, 2010

Singapore Strategy-cimb

18 May 2010
Singapore Strategy
OVERWEIGHT Maintained
2,833.7 @17/05/10
Target Index: 3,300
1Q10: Tilting towards defensives and Asian growth


• Overweight FSSTI; end-CY10 index target 3,300 unchanged. The FSSTI has pulled back on increased risk aversion globally. Our index target is bottom-up driven and implies 15.3x CY11 P/E. Current CY10 EPS growth expectations of 18.2% look very reasonable compared with current valuations of 14.9x CY10 P/E and 13.3x CY11 P/E and a long-term average P/E of 15.9x. Although cheap in P/E terms against history, our base-case earnings estimates right now assume that problems in the euro zone will hurt at the margin but not derail the global recovery completely. If events prove such assumptions invalid, earnings risks will emerge. We had turned cautious on equity markets in March and have been increasingly uneasy. Our Overweight rating on Singapore is premised on its structural re-making and positioning to reap benefits from the upcoming Asia decade.



• 1Q results signal that the upgrade cycle could be near an end. Our EPS upgrades have gathered momentum since Dec 09. Judging by the fairly equal number of positive surprises vs. disappointments this quarter, the upgrade momentum could be peaking.



• Stock picks. Blaming macro concerns alone is not constructive. We believe there are still ways to benefit from certain global trends, though not through the traditional large-cap banks, property and telco stocks in Singapore. Our base-case view on Singapore has always centred on its economic remaking, which should make it an attractive node in Asia, pulling in jobs and talent as tax rates in the developed world rise. Our first high-conviction theme is job immigration, where we still reckon that office landlord Keppel Land would be a considerable beneficiary. Our second theme is Asian consumption. The deflation threat posed by Europe means that businesses might now find raw material costs less of an issue than keeping revenue engines humming. We like consumer proxies, Fraser & Neave and Cerebos. Genting Singapore also makes it to our top picks as a proxy for likely-resilient Asian gambling trends. Other new picks are SIA Engineering (Asian aviation growth) and Cache Logistics (defensive REIT, differentiated logistics assets). OCBC has replaced UOB in our list of top 10 stocks as we see it providing the best exposure to growing wealth in Asia. Stocks that have made way include CDL-HT, SembMarine and Noble.

Thursday, June 17, 2010

五窮瀉低‧六絕築底‧投資部署馬股看高一線

5大首選股

馬銀行(MAYBANK, 1155, 主板金融組)

-將從國內和區域經濟復甦獲利。

-近期公佈的2010財政年第3季財報各環節強勁成長,預計表現可延續至下個季度。

-仍以低於長期淨值率水平交易。

亞通(AXIATA, 6888, 主板貿服組)

-強勁成長動力。

-與數碼網絡潛在基礎設施合作成本節省。

-在2010財政年第3季制定股息政策。

國家能源(TENAGA, 5347, 主板貿服組)

-經濟復甦拉動需求強勁成長。

-以被低估的1年後14.5倍本益比進行交易。

-政府合理化津貼架構的主要受惠者,因電費有望獲得調整。

-9%外資持股處在多年的低位。

大馬機場(AIRPORT, 5014, 主板貿服組)

-費用和收費重組提供清晰的盈利前景。

-無需曝露在波動不安的燃料成本,但卻可趕搭客流量復甦便車的安全投資代表。

雙威城(SUNCITY, 6289, 主板產業組)

-在未將雙威城所有開發地庫納入估計算時,雙威產業信托上市可釋放24億令吉資產價值,遠高於現有公司市值。

-未來3年複合年均每股盈利達18.7%的誘人估值。



Monday, June 14, 2010

第十大馬計劃-贏家出列

贏家出列
第十大馬計劃沒有帶來太大的驚喜,大部份計劃皆是長期計劃,較短期的振奮或來自總值約630億令吉的52項公共與私人合夥工程計劃。

以領域分析,大部份經濟學家和分析家皆認為,建築業及產業是這5年發展計劃的最大贏家,尤其是砂拉越州的建築業者。

惟僑豐研究卻警惕吉隆坡市中心或出現過度發展。公用領域將從液化天然氣廠與新的煤炭廠中受惠。

建築業:
● 發展開銷撥款2300億令吉
● 建築業在第十大馬計劃期間的平均年成長為3.7%
● 52項總值627億令吉的工程在私營化計劃及公共與私人合夥計劃下落實
● 提昇鄉區的基本建設,尤其是東馬
● 吉隆坡推行捷運
● 電動雙軌鐵道延長線從金馬士至新山
● 興建更多醫院與診療所
● 興建7萬8000間能力可及的住家
潛在受惠公司:
優樂家集團(KEURO, 3565, 主板建筑組)及怡保工程(IJM, 3336, 主板建筑組)在公共與私人合夥計劃下是其中7條高速公路西海岸高速公路的受惠者。

成榮集團(MUDAJYA, 5085, 主板建筑組)通過公共與私人合夥計劃瞄準其中一條大道,也可能從兩個煤炭廠的一些工程受惠。

納因控股(NAIM, 5073, 主板產業組)及福勝利(HSL, 6238, 主板建筑組)或是砂州工程的受惠者。
捷運施工期不明確,但金務大(GAMUDA, 5398, 主板建筑組)及MMC機構(MMCCORP, 2194, 主板貿服組)或是受惠者,因已提呈建議書予政府。

產業:
● 新村重新發展,讓土地擁有人兌現它們的產業價值而不影響土著擁有權
● 重新發展新街場機場及吉隆坡金融區
● 投資地產公司成立產業投資信托,以方便土著投資商業與工業產業
● 發展大馬橡膠局的雙溪毛糯地段,概括3300英畝,估計成本為100億令吉。

潛在受惠者:
僑豐研究預料馬資源(MRCB, 1651, 主板建筑組)是雙溪毛糯地段發展總值達100億令吉的潛在受惠者,它或與雇員公積金局攜手合作發展此地段。

效應:
若新街場機場重發展及吉隆坡金融區計劃落實,對其他發展商有意在未來5年在這一區附近推展各自的辦公樓大廈或帶來負面影響。

集中吉隆坡的發展,或造成商業高度供過於求現象,長期對巴生河流域的所有市場業者是不健康的。未來10年的高度城市化(每年達2.8%),比較過去每年為2.2%,雖對產業有利,但過去的房屋供應速度(每年達4.7%)已超越城市人口成長。

種植業:
● 提高此領域佔國內生產總值的貢獻,即從2009年的170億令吉增至219億令吉。
● 出口總值從496億令吉增至693億令吉。
● 推崇大馬為原棕全球樞紐
● 集中發展下游增值活動,如生物燃油、油脂化學、生物肥料、特別油脂產品、生物質產品、保健品及藥劑品。

評語:
相信這項計劃對種植業的影響不大,因大馬已是棕油樞紐,不會有任何的顯著改變或改進。
公用領域:
● 國油在馬六甲興建總值30億令吉的液化天然氣氣體化廠
● 兩項煤炭燃料發電廠,總值100億令吉
● 政府推介上網電價政策及再生能源基金

潛在受惠者:
最大受惠者或是MMC機構(MMCCORP, 2194, 主板貿服組),因此公司已獲準擴充TANJUNG BIN的800兆瓦發電廠。

國油氣體(PETGAS, 6033, 主板工業產品組)或是其中贏家,因液化天然氣的氣體化廠確保天然氣的穩定供應,以延續其業務。

國家能源(TENAGA, 5347, 主板貿服組)或在天然氣津貼降低下每次需調高電費。

銀行:
● 延伸營運資本擔保計劃給中小型企業達額外的30億令吉

物流:
● 通過200億令吉的輔助金,政府預計可以吸引私人界的投資至少2000億令吉,當中的工程計劃包括巴生港口的西港填海計劃

潛在受惠者:
NCB控股(NCB, 5509, 主板貿服組)在某種程度上佔到連鎖效應的喜氣。
電訊:

● 寬頻滲透目標至2015年從2010年杪的50%增至2015年的75%
評語:

所有的無線頻營運者將歇盡所能行銷它們的流動寬頻計劃,以迎合強勢的需求。

潛在受惠者:
預料馬電訊(TM, 4863, 主板貿服組)長期從使用量的增加受惠。

水供:
● 水供資產的整合
● 水費設定的機制可以在2013年分階段全面回本
● 整合水供與排污服務

受惠者:
商業高峰(PUNCAK, 6807, 主板基建計劃組)是涉及雪州水供資產整合的主要個體。

政府有意更改外勞人頭稅的架構,不同領域支付不同的外勞人頭稅,如製造業每人每年1200令吉,對高度依賴外勞的領域,如種植業及手套廠商和其他製造業者或帶來不利。

高度依賴外勞領域受衝擊根據馬銀行研究分析,國內挂牌公司雇用外勞水平介於60%至70%,而種植公司約95%的員工為外勞。

Suntec REIT-ocbc

14/06/10

Suntec REIT: Positive retail developments and opportunities

New MRT stations a traffic opportunity. Esplanade and Promenade, the two Circle Line stations connected to Suntec REIT’s Suntec City, opened on Apr 17. The new Bras Basah station is also in the vicinity of Chijmes. The eleven new stations that opened two months ago are projected to increase ridership on the Circle Line to 200k commuters per day from 40k per day previously (Land Transport Authority). The retail malls’ increased connectivity could boost pedestrian traffic, in our view.

Great Singapore Sale going great guns. According to the Business Times, both Singapore-based and visiting MasterCard cardholders spent a total of US$44.3m over the first weekend of the Great Singapore Sale (GSS), up 18% YoY. The purchases were primarily made at eating places and department stores. Meanwhile, a survey released by the MasterCard Worldwide Index of Consumer Confidence last month shows that consumer confidence in Singapore more than doubled to 86.6 points compared to a year ago. Confidence, according to the poll, is back to levels recorded in 1H08.

Time to re-launch Park Mall AEI? We expect the S-REIT sector to employ asset enhancement initiatives as a key strategy to grow portfolio income this year. Suntec has long had asset enhancement plans to overhaul Park Mall (PM). The REIT had first acquired 13,572 square feet of land along Penang Road in Jul 2007, and subsequently purchased another strip of land of roughly 1,105 sf in Mar 2008, for a total acquisition cost of S$15.6m. The land was intended for amalgamation with PM to create additional floor area – Suntec had said in 2008 that the total permissible gross floor area for PM would increase by roughly 67,810 sf to 451,727 sf. These plans were put on the backburner during the financial crisis. This could be an opportune year to re-launch this initiative.

Valuation. These positive retail trends, coupled with the opening of the new MRT stations, bode well for pedestrian traffic and consumer spending at the REIT’s retail portfolio. Asset enhancements are another growth driver. This is, of course, offset by the challenges faced by Suntec’s office portfolio, with prime office rents down 58.4% from peak 2008 levels according to CB Richard Ellis. Still, there has been a 5.8% decline in Suntec’s unit price since our last report in April and valuations are attractive from a price-to-book perspective. Maintain BUY and S$1.44 fair value.

Spice i2i – Sell on any rebound ??

• A minor rebound could take place here but we prefer to sell on any rebound. Upside is likely capped by its moving averages, around the S$0.215-0.23 levels.

InsiderAsia model portfolio — Week 381

Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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