Saturday, March 27, 2010

分享集: 先处战地者逸

分享集: 先处战地者逸

孙子曰:“凡先处战地而待敌者逸(佚),后处战地而趋战者劳”(孙子兵法“虚实篇”)。

(白话译文:孙子说:“凡先到战场等待敌人的就安逸,后到战场投入战斗的就疲劳。”)

孙子这两句话中最重要的两个字是“逸”和“劳”。“逸”就是安逸,从容不迫;“劳”就是疲劳,疲于奔命。

甲乙两军对垒,要在一个战场决一死战。甲军提早20天到达战场,有足够的时间了解地形,构筑好工事,作好如何迎击,如何歼敌,如何撤退等的准备,而士兵又有足够的时间休息,养精蓄锐,以给予敌人以迎头痛击。由于时间充足,他们可以从容不迫地备战,这就是“逸”。

乙军远道而来,一到战场,士兵已精疲力倦,由于马上就要投入战斗,根本没有时间了解战地形势,更不要说策划战略了,这种打法,兵士疲于奔命,这就是“劳”。

甲军准备充足,以逸待劳,胜算自然较高。乙军以疲惫之师,仓促作战,胜算自然较低。

利润是战利品

股市就是一个战场,利润,就是买卖两方的战利品,是买卖两方斗智斗力所要卤获的标的物。

军事之战和股市之战,其实极为相似,都是“凡先处战地而待敌者逸,后处战地而趋战者劳”。

在股市中,绝大多数的投资者都是“后处战地而趋战者”。

当股市沉静时,他们按兵不动,直到股市狂升,股价大涨时才冲进股市,仓促作战,由于行动仓促,备战工作不足,结果是屡犯错误,搞到损兵折将,铩羽而归。

他们在股市中抢进杀出,终日提心吊胆,生活在炼狱中,这就是孙子所说的“劳”。如果“劳”而有获,还算值得,但是,如果劳而无功,不但无功,而且满身刀伤,怎么值得?然而投资者却趋之若鹜,乐此不疲,实在匪夷所思。

先处战地而待敌人到来,有两个好处:
1)你有足够的时间,作好战斗的准备。

在股市之战中,你有足够的时间做好功课,考虑更周密,犯错的机会自然减到最低。

减少错误,等于提高胜算。

2)你可以享受安逸的生活。投资不再是一件烦恼的事。
那么,要怎样才能做到“先处战地者逸”呢?

很简单,只要做人“有求必应”就可以了。

所谓“有求必应”就是人家要什么,你就给他什么。

有求必应则发
当股市暴跌时,投资者惊慌失措,他们不计成本,在股市中贱价售股,要收回资金;这时候,你就顺应他们的要求,给他金钱,接受他的股票。

当公牛发狂,股价涨到离谱的高峰时,人人进场狂追,他们要的是股票,不要金钱,这时,你就顺应他们的要求,把股票卖给他,接受他的金钱。你这样做,就是有求必应,有求必应的人,就是好人,好人有好心,好心有好报,你这样做,准会发达。

“有求必应”的做法,其实就是反向。

“先处战地以待敌”其实就是比对手先走一步,这一步可能只是一小步,但战利品可大得惊人。例如在去年这个时候,金融海啸蹂躏下,股市疮痍满目,如果你在那时买进股票,等于“先处战地”,今天的战利品大得惊人。

获利时间较长
这种“先处战地”的策略,应用在股票上,效果如响斯应,试举例说明:
1)当经济衰退时,大胆投资,等待经济复苏。
2)在熊市中,“先处战地”,低价买好股,等待公牛回头。
3)棕油价低沉,买棕油股。
4)钢铁厂生产过剩,钢材大跌,买钢铁股。
5)夹板价到底,开始回升,买夹板股。
6)受去年金融海啸冲击,一些高价买进原料的建材股大亏,以后不再发生,今年开始恢复盈利,可买。
7)别人看不起的冷门股,价值被严重低估,可买,等待别人发现它们。

这样的例子很多,投资者只要养成“先处战地”的思维,应用起来,自然得心应手。

这种策略的缺点,如果也算是缺点的话,就是等待获利的时间较长,例如夹板价格回暖了,但夹板股的盈利,要一年以后才公布,你必须有等待一两年的耐性,才能得利。

优点是由于买得早,买价常常极低,风险小,利润高。

时间就是金钱,此言不谬。

DXN-aa

DXN Holdings Berhad (5074)
Recommendation : TRADING BUY
Current Price : RM 0.660
Target Price : RM 1.050

Nature of Business
The Group's principal activities are manufacturing and selling health supplement and other products on a multi-level marketing (MLM) basis. Its product lines include health food supplements, food and beverages, personal care products, skin care, household products and water treatment system. Other activities include property development, tour operator, small scale biodiesel manufacturing and trading of timber concession right. Today, DXN is one of the world fastest growing network marketing organizations with operation over 110 countries.

Corporate Developments
Operations Review

The Group recorded RM62.3mil Revenue for current quarter ended 30 November 2009, representing a decrease of 11.9% as compared to RM70.8mil in the corresponding quarter ended 30 November 2008. The decreased was due to lower revenue contributed from property development segment. Accumulatively, the Group recorded RM199.8mil revenue for the nine months financial period ended 30 November 2009.

The Group recorded a higher profit before tax (“PBT”) of RM12.1mil with PBT margin of 19.4% for the current quarter ended 30 November 2009 as compared to the corresponding quarter ended 30 November 2008 of RM4.1mil with PBT margin of 5.8%. The improvement in the Group’s PBT margin was mainly derived from higher PBT margin contributed from multi-level marketing segment due to its improvement in cost management and price revision for certain countries. Accumulatively, the Group recorded RM29.4mil PBT for the nine months financial period ended 30 November 2009.

The Group reported lower revenue of RM62.3mil in the current quarter ended 30 November 2009 as compared to RM72.7mil in the preceding quarter ended 31 August 2009. The decreased was due to lower revenue contributed from multi-level marketing segment and property development segment. The Group’s PBT for the current quarter was RM12.1mil as compared to preceding quarter of RM10.8mil whereas the PBT margin was increased from 14.8% in preceding quarter to 19.4% in current quarter. Having consider the RM2mil provision for the diminution of investment value in subordinate CLO Bond in preceding quarter, there are still an improvement of 1.8% PBT margin which was mainly contributed from multi-level marketing segment due to its improvement in cost management and price revision for certain countries.


Future Outlook
Global Expansion and Product Development
The rapid global expansion of DXN in more than 110 countries for its global presence with its own brand name is recognized internationally by its vast growth of members worldwide and its amplification of footprint in key strategic locations. Looking at the Bursa Listed Companies, DXN is unique in the MLM industry that applying “One Dragon Concept” from cultivation, manufacturing and marketing are fully integrated under its own brand name and apparently its has differential with established strong global presence in a diversified overseas market that so called “One World One Market” Concept.

The company has a strong based for its R&D activities in Mycological and Biotechnology, that will lead the exploitation of new products such as skin care and cosmetic products which was launched to the Malaysia Market but yet to its overseas market. The pipeline product development of the vitamin series product is expected to launch by early 2010. The company is also the 1st company in Malaysia to start cultivation for Spirulina and granted the Pioneer Status for 10 years tax exemption from MAIDA, it is notice that the Spirulina sales has been picking up steadily and the company is now under construction to build more Spirulina cultivation pound to expand its capacity.

Valuation & Recommendation

Valuation
We believe that DXN’s prospects will continue to improve and profit margin for the company’s products will stay steady. The FY 10 accumulated 3 Quarter EPS came in at 10.11sen, which is about 92% of our earlier full year forecast EPS of 11sen. Therefore, by annualize the full year earning forecast, it is expected DXN to achieve PAT of RM31mil, with EPS of 13.5sen, which expected to surpass our early estimation by 23%. Going forward, we estimate the new MLM market developments in Latin America such as Peru, Colombia and Chile, and the realization of the sale of completed development project in Penang will enable DXN to continue growth the earning by 30% with PAT of RM40.3mil, which will equate to EPS of 17.5sen. By using a conservative PER of 6x, we have a Trading Buy call on DXN Holdings Berhad with a target price of RM1.05.

Sunday, March 21, 2010

先胜而后求战

先胜而后求战
by 冷眼
出自《冷眼分享集》
胜兵:先胜而后求战;败兵:先战而后求胜 —– 《孙子兵法》

孙子说:“打胜战的军队(胜兵),是先胜利的把握(先胜),然后才跟敌人交战(求战) 。

孙子说:“打败战的军队(败兵),往往是冒险同敌人交战(先战),然后在作战中希望侥幸得胜(求胜) 。

为什么能”先胜”?

因为开战之前,已开军事会议(庙算),评估了所有有利的条件, 对胜算了如指掌。

惟有条件充足,有绝对的把握胜战,然后后才发动战争。

前者是有计划的行为,后者则是没有计划,临时视情况才决定要怎样做。

在股票投资中,成功者都是先胜而后求战的。

也就是在买进之前,已做足了功课知道有关股票不但基本面强,例如盈利好,前景亮丽,财务稳健等,而且股价合理。有了这些条件,这项投资已立于不败之地。


在买进之前,已有赚钱的把握, 这就是“先胜”。

有把握赚钱才买进(求战),打的是有把握的仗。

那么,要怎样才能“先胜”呢?

胜败的关键有二:
关键一:
决定于企业的成败。如果企业的业绩持续上升,股价必然步步高升。星狮(F&N) 就是一个典型例子,即使是在金融风啸中,股价仍能逆流而上。另一个典型例子是大众银行。在金融风啸中,投资大众担心我国银行也会受到拖累,大众银行的股价也跟着下调。


但情况稍微明朗,该股又稳步回升。


丰隆银行(HLB)及其母公司丰隆集团(HLFG)也是典型例子。此两股过去并不热门,股价巩固期颇长,最近才脱颖而出,股价才开始反映了它们的强稳基本面。


买进这些股票的投资者, 都是“先胜而后求战”。

先胜,是因为有了强稳的基本面。

强稳的基本面使投资者立于不败之地。

关键二:
是决定于股市的荣衰。

在牛市中,无股不起。

在熊市中,无股不跌。

问题是公牛和母熊的动向最难捉摸。

许多人企图猜测股市的动向,至今乃无人成功。

无数的投资者靠预测时机(timing)来投资,结果都是一败涂地。

既然股市是不可预测的,那要怎样才能“求胜”?

我的经验是:养成“反向思维”的习惯。

跟群众的想法背道而驰。

当所有的人都悲观时,你乐观。

当所有的人都乐观时,你悲观。

当所有的人都悲观时,你怎样能“乐观”?

春天肯定会到来

你一定要冷静地想:无论情况怎样怀,总有一天会好转。就好像冬天无论怎样长,春天肯定会到来。

经济情况无论怎样坏,但人类的基本需求总是存在的。即使短期减少,最后还是要填补。


例如在金融海啸横扫全球时,汽车销量下跌了,但汽车的寿命是有限的, 一辆车总不能用50年。所以,车旧了,总是要换新的,只是时间问题而已。在金融海啸期间,人们暂时不换汽车,但过后换新车的人会增加,填补了金融海啸期间减少的数目。

这种情形在1997年货币危机中出现,在金融海啸中重演,有经验的投资者, 就有信心在金融海啸中, 当汽车股如陈唱摩多暴跌时买进此股。

反向思考
同样的,在金融海啸中,钢铁股大跌,但请你冷静地想一想:这个世界的建设,没有钢铁行吗?既然不行,那么,钢铁的需求永远存在。当钢铁厂的产能只用到 30%,钢铁厂大亏,钢铁股大跌时,正是买金钢铁股的良机。

人类追求更美好生活的欲望永无止境。所以,这个世界不会停止前进,就好像地球不会停止转动那么肯定。

既然如此,则无论经济衰退多么严重,总有一天会恢复。

连1929年的经济大萧条尚能复苏,何况是金融海啸?有了这种信心,你就能摆脱周围的悲观论调,大胆地下注。

非常的盈利机会, 惟有在非常的环境中才出现。

这种在别人悲观时你乐观; 别人乐观时你悲观的“反向”思维法,必须常期的修炼才能成形。

这种定力的养成,没有捷径。但是,一旦养成,你会对纷纷纭纭的乱况洞若观火。

你要做到“先胜而后求战”吗?

那么请你向两方面努力:
第一:在企业方面猛下功夫,努力发掘股票的价值,在价值被低估时买进。
第二:在股市方面,养成反向的习惯,在股市最坏时大胆买进。

“先胜而后求战”是上策。
“先战而后求胜”是下策。
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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