Friday, March 12, 2010

Lippo-Mapletree Indonesia Retail Trust -OCBC

12/03/10
LMIR Trust: Implications of Matahari Department Stores sale

Matahari Department Stores (MDS), a related company of LMIR Trust (LMRT), is being sold by its 90.8% owner PT Matahari Putra Prima (MPP). MDS, which is LMRT’s second largest mall tenant – it contributed 4.1% of mall portfolio gross income in FY09.

Implications.
We spoke to LMRT’s manager regarding MDS. The sale has no impact on the current lease agreements (seven retail spaces of 10+10 years starting from 2007) between MDS and LMRT. We understand that the people running the business are unchanged – so the ground level relationships between LMRT’s leasing team and MDS should remain largely intact. We also note that Lippo Group will continue to have an interest in MDS through MPP’s stake in Meadow Asia.

More broadly, we believe the commercial relationship between LMRT and MDS still makes sense – both on a target customer level and also because LMRT has consistently been able to maintain portfolio occupancies significantly above market. Still there could be a risk of tighter negotiations on rents and lease terms. As for the seven retail spaces, MPP is the master lessee and the option to renew the agreements come 2017 still remains with MPP.

Our view on LMRT is unchanged. Issues that adversely impacted FY09 earnings such as early lease terminations and low retailer budgets for advertising & promotion expenditure will be less of a factor in FY10, in our opinion. We also see increasing chances of an acquisition in the next six to 12 months. A strong IDR, which may continue to be a drag on distributions, is a key risk to our estimates. We maintain our BUY rating and S$0.59 fair value.
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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