Thursday, February 11, 2010

目展望2010年...我们何去何从?(特选片断-第十一段)



Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:11/02/2010

目展望2010年...我们何去何从?(特选片断-第九段)



Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:11/02/2010

目展望2010年...我们何去何从?(特选片断-第八段)



Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:11/02/2010

目展望2010年...我们何去何从?(特选片断-第七段)



Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:11/02/2010

目展望2010年...我们何去何从?(特选片断-第六段)



Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:11/02/2010

目展望2010年...我们何去何从?(特选片断-第五段)



Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:11/02/2010

目展望2010年...我们何去何从?(特选片断-第四段)



Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:11/02/2010

目展望2010年...我们何去何从?(特选片断-第三段



Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:11/02/2010

目展望2010年...我们何去何从?(特选片断-第二段)



Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:11/02/2010

目展望2010年...我们何去何从?(特选片断-第一段)



Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:11/02/2010

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

目展望2010年...我们何去何从?(特选片断-第十段)



Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:11/02/2010

AIMS-AMP-Phillip

09/02/2010

A New Name, A Fresh Start
• Fair value maintained at $0.22, recommendation upgrade from sell to hold

• 3Q10 Revebue = $12.6 million, (-3.3% y-y, +6.2% q-q)
• Net property income = $9.9 million, (+5.3% y-y, +9.1% q-q)
• Distributable income = $5.4 million. (-14.0% y-y, +4.0% q-q).
• Total asset value of $565.9 million, gearing at 28.9%

A new name, a fresh start
The lower y-y revenue was due to the lower recovery of property tax and land rent, which is reimbursable by tenants. However net property income showed increment for both y-y and q-q mainly due to the one-month revenue contribution from the 1A IBP property. For 3Q10, AIMS declared a special distribution prior to the issuance of placement units of 0.95 cents for the period from 1 Oct 2009 to 23 Nov 2009, and a distribution of 0.1868 cents for the period from 24 Nov 2009 to 31 Dec 2009.

Portfolio asset value as at 31 Dec 2009 was $565.9 million. Additionally, the acquisition of the 4 properties from AMP Capital was completed on 11 Jan 2010. The property portfolio achieves an occupancy rate of 99.0%.

We are expecting AIMSAMP REIT to report better growth in the next quarter from the full quarter contributions of the newly acquired properties

Capital management

AIMSAMP REIT is definitely in much better financial shape now, after the tough recapitalization exercise last year. AIMSAMP REIT has total debt of $190.2 million, out of which $175 million is denominated in SGD and due in 2012. The remaining $15 million is JPY loan, which AIMSAMP REIT has already secured the credit facility to refinance it. Gearing is at 28.9%, which is an improvement from the pre-recapitalization gearing of 44.7%.

Our concerns

We are definitely more optimistic of the REIT now, with an improved balance sheet and also properties that are providing good yields. We also see some good quality investors in the REIT. Our two main concerns now are
1. portfolio acquisition growth is constrained by the gearing limit of 35%
2. high interest cost that dampens distribution

One of the covenants in the refinancing facility is that AIMSAMP REIT will be subjected to a higher interest margin by 100 basis points if its gearing is subsequently increased to above 35%. Currently it is paying an interest margin of 3.5% on $175 million of loan. This essentially limits AIMS expansion plan to take on more loans and investors would also be adverse to equity funding after the recent dilution. Our second concern follows from the first point. Together with the interest margin, the total interest rate on the loan is 5.4%. If gearing breaches the 35% mark, interest rate would increase by another 1%. During a discussion with management, one of the strategies is the repositioning of the properties. Divesting assets and using the proceeds to pare down debt and subsequently taking on new loans with lower interest cost is one of the ways to add value to unitholders.

Forecasts
We are forecasting 4Q10E DPU to be 0.36cents, bringing full year FY10E DPU to be 4.95 cents. Subsequently, we forecast FY11E DPU to be 2.01 cents, which translate to a yield of 9.3%, incorporating the full year contribution from the acquired properties but without assuming further acquisitions. In our view, it would be a big plus if management is able to execute its plan to lighten its interest expenses. On the other hand, collecting an annual yield of 9% sounds fine to us too. We are maintaining our fair value of $0.22 and upgrading our recommending from sell to hold.

Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Cambridge Industrial Trust -Nomura

Executing two-step funding

• FY10-11F DPU cut to reflect asset sale, sale of AAREIT stake; FY12F DPU of S$0.052

Following the 4Q09 results, we have revised our estimates for CREIT to reflect the sale of 16 Tuas Avenue 18A and six strata units at Enterprise Hub during the quarter. In addition, we have factored in a loss of S$2.4mn booked in 4Q09 from the sale of CREIT’s entire stake in AAREIT (formerly MIREIT), which we had previously included in our distribution forecast.

FY12F DPU forecast = S$0.052 (+1.6% y-y).

• Further asset divestment could pare DPU by S$0.003
As of end-4Q09, assets worth S$78.6mn have been contracted for sale over the next 12 months and booked as “investment properties held for divestment”. Assuming an average exit yield of 8% for these assets and that the proceeds will repay borrowings that cost 4.2% in cash interest, our numbers suggest another S$0.003 could be shed from our FY10-12F DPU forecasts.

Given that this is in essence a two-step funding process for potential accretive opportunities (divestment proceeds to pay down existing term loan facility, and then use the debt capacity to gear up for asset enhancement of existing portfolio or external acquisition), the ultimate DPU impact therefore will depend on management’s execution of this strategy.

• NEUTRAL, price target raised to S$0.48

We have cut our cap rate assumption by 50bps and, adjusting for other changes following the results, we have raised our core NAV and price target to S$0.48 (from S$0.44). Our new price target offers a potential total return of 17.7%, including a projected FY10F dividend yield of 11.3%.

另類投資學

February 8, 2010

另類投資學
李兆基被譽亞洲股神

在經濟危機下,香港投資者面對股市與樓市重挫的恐慌,但香港富豪榜排名第二位的李兆基卻批評說:“香港人是太過嬌生慣養,從未見過世面,從未受過困難。”

雖然與首富李嘉誠,李兆基一樣都是香港股市及房地產界的風雲,投資風格卻大相徑庭。

李兆基的持股名單並非機密,他從不吝惜公開自己的投資計劃,正所謂利益均霑,不夾雜複雜術語,不進行基本面的分析羅列,甚至連街道的老太太,都對他港腔十足的持股名單隨口即來。

儘管四叔“在香港投資股票比地產好”的偏好眾人皆知,在完成“樓神”向“股神”的身份轉型后,也絲毫不耽誤他在實業上的投資步伐,印證其語“見利勿忘”,即有錢賺的時候千萬不要錯過。

2009年11月,迪拜房地產泡沫轟然破碎,李嘉誠此前“泡沫尚未擠乾,暴露只是冰山一角”的觀點甚囂其上。
正值中國各階層反思中國房地產的潛伏的迪拜危機時,李兆基則相中了位于惠東亞婆角的東部灣區。

打造中國“迪拜”
據悉,他正準備將這個純淨的灣區打造成為中國的“迪拜”,成為一個擁有星級酒店、遊艇會、高爾夫球場、以及系列高端配套的富人級休閒度假天堂,投資不少于300億人民幣(約150億令吉),極有可能成為新鴻基近期在內地投資規模最大的複合地產項目。

此外,樂觀的李兆基不僅在遼寧添置兩幅住宅商業用地,在出資1億美元認購在香港上市的北京金隅當天,還強調“未來還會積極在內地物色土地”。

觀察人士分析,李兆基正是看重了“富豪入海”生活方式的即將興起,近日海南由“國際度假島”一躍成為“國際房地產島”的房價沖天,則印證了“四叔”的預判。

泡沫不一定馬上破
巴菲特語:“只有潮退時,才知道誰在裸泳。”

在李嘉誠、鄭裕彤等香港富豪“賺到一倍就套現”的紛紛上岸之際,唯有李兆基敢于繼續在泡沫中不亦樂乎,有時也難免踩空。儘管對于港股中積累的泡沫風險他並非不知,但他相信“泡沫不一定就非得馬上要破”。

有時也難免“踩空”,李兆基曾在唱高20000點的時候,港股應聲失守,旗下愛股幾乎全軍覆沒,私人基金兆基財經資產總值也由高峰期的2000億港元(約887億令吉),縮水至1500億港元(約665億令吉),損失約四分之一。

昔日的看空者甚至組團為“四叔”解套獻招以示“看空亦有賺錢之道”。

但李兆基對股市依舊有信心,更是預測全年恆指可恢復至25,000點水平,看好大型國企、能源、金融股。

李兆基對此不以為意,並說:“我沒有不開心啊,他們與我的想法不同,他們看淡香港股市和房地產,所以連我也一起看淡。就我私人收入而言,這十年我從派息方面的收入差不多有200億元(約88.7億令吉),一分沒有少賺。至于上市公司時值只是跌了一半,僅此而已。”
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
  • Selected Indexes 52 week range

  • Margin of Safety

    Investment Clock

    World's First Interactive Investment Clock