Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Fortune REIT-DBS

27/01/10
Fortune REIT
BUY HK$3.08
Price Target : 12-month HK$3.71
(Prev HK$3.61)

A safe play in a volatile market
At a Glance
• FY09 result was slightly above our expectation for stronger property income and lower interest expense.
• Earnings outlook should remain stable offering attractive yield
• Maintain BUY, TP raised to HK$3.71.

Result Highlights
Revenue = HK$701m (+10%)
FY09 distribution income = HK$338m (+12%)
DPU - HK$0.302 (-18%)

There was a modest 4.2% rental reversion for renewals. However, net property income grew only 7%, as cost-to-income ratio inched up to 27.3% from 25% the year before. Portfolio occupancy reached a new high of 96.4% at Dec 09 after vacancies at Smartland and The Household Center improved considerably in 4Q09. Interest expense fell 13% to HK$88m on lower borrowing costs, despite additional loans raised to partly fund the acquisitions. Gearing remains low at 23.7% because of larger shareholders’ equity led by revaluation surplus on investment properties. Fortune REIT has room to make yield accretive acquisitions worth up to HK$2.1bn without tapping the equity market, before its gearing hits the 35% ceiling limit.

Recommendation
In 2010, Fortune REIT plans to revamp and reposition City One Shatin Property to give the mall a new image and strengthen its retail offerings. Unit price of Fortune REIT has rebounded 24% from the low in September. Despite this, it still offers distribution yield of 7.4% for FY10 and 7.7% for FY11. In view of its resilient earnings and better trading liquidity postacquisition, Fortune REIT would be a safe play in a volatile market. We roll forward our valuation to FY11, with DDMbased target price of HK$3.71. Maintain BUY.

Monday, January 25, 2010

MAS open to consolidation



Source/转贴/Extract/:youtube
Publish date:25/01/10

Ascendas India Trust-DBS

25/01/10
Ascendas India Trust
BUY S$1.06 ST
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.17 (Prev S$ 1.06)

Reasons to stay invested
• Consistently strong performance
• Earnings spike to come in FY11 post completion of 2 of its new buildings
• Buy for growing yields, TP S$1.17

Gross revenues = S$29.9m (+4% yoy, -2% yoy),
Net property income (NPI) = S$19.3m (+13% yoy, +1% qoq),
Distributable income = S$14.1m (-8% yoy, 0% qoq
DPU = 1.85 Scts.

Sustained occupancies, upside from development projects.
Looking into FY11, a-itrust will be renewing c35% of its space, most of which are from the Vega and the Crest. Given that this is the first renewal cycle, we believe that tenants should remain at their existing locations. In addition, we look forward to a-itrust taking delivery of 2 out of 3 development projects in the later part of FY11, which will lead to positive earnings growth.

Adjusting INR assumptions. The strengthening of INR vs S$ exchange rates means that future hedges are likely to be in a-itrust favor. Therefore, we adjust our INR vs S$ estimates to INR 33.5 to S$1, in line with our DBS currency strategist’s outlook for INR in 2010 which is similar to the rate that the trust has hedged its next distribution payment.

BUY for growth, TP S$1.17. a-itrust’s DPU CAGR of 9% over FY11-12 remains a key attraction, prospective yield of 7.9-8.5%. Upside earnings surprise will hinge on potential acquisitions given a-itrust’s strong financial leverage position. Our target is adjusted to S$1.17 from higher earnings estimates and rolling forward our valuations.
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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